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Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri May 08, 2015 4:41 pm
Date : 8th May 2015.

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.




EURUSD, Daily

Thursday morning I expected to see a move lower and then buyers stepping in between 1.1290 and 1.1223. The pair moved lower as expected and then signalled buys inside this range but there was no follow through and the lack of momentum turned to further down move. Currently EURUSD is trading at the May 5th daily highs. There has been again some attempt to take the pair higher but intraday resistance levels have halted the moves so far. As the time of Non-Farm Payrolls release is getting closer market reactions are likely to be subdued until the figures are released. As we have seen over this year NFP figure is capable of surprising both the markets and analysts. This figure can be in line or it can deviate strongly from the expectations. As there is no way of know what the figure will be and what the market reaction to this unknown figure is likely to be, committing to a trade beforehand is not recommendable. We should only trade when probabilities are on our side.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a daily high from May 5th and has created a 4h hammer candle after it bounced higher from the 50 period SMA. In the daily picture the current price action takes place close to the upper Bollinger Bands and near February sideways range. The weekly candle with current price close to the Monday’s opening price suggests weakness over the coming few days. A strong rally higher would quite obviously negate this view. In 4h timeframe the Stochastic Oscillator is oversold while in daily chart Stochastics are rolling over from the overbought levels. This fits together with price wedging at resistance. Momentum has slowed down and I expect price needs to move lower before finding a level from which to bounce higher again. Region near weekly closing value (from end of March) at 1.0960 would be an interesting level to look for signals for long trades. Significant support levels for the pair are: 1.1035, 1.0970 and 1.0848 (50 day SMA close at 1.10867), while significant resistance levels are at 1.1400 and 1.1480.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

Changes have been nominal ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. AUD has still been slightly stronger than others while GBP strength that we saw earlier today has eased a bit. JPY weakness is understandable as USDJPY has made a higher low yesterday and has moved nicely higher today.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Farm Payrolls are likely to increase by 225k for April. An improvement over the 126k March headline but still lower than the 264k headline in February. The unemployment rate should tick down to 5.4% from 5.5% in March. The data should help underpin the dollar’s yield advantage over the euro following recent narrowing.

Canadian Employment is expected to rise 15.0k in April (median is for no change) after the 28.7k gain in March. Employment managed to put together a solid total gain in March, but the details were weak. Business confidence remains subdued, suggesting a risk for a very modest jobs gain or outright decline in April that undershoots our estimates.



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:05 pm
Date : 22nd June 2015.

GOLD ROLLING OVER FROM A RESISTANCE




Gold, Weekly

Gold rallied from support over the last two weeks and reached a weekly pivot candle low at 1201. Price moved slightly above this resistance before failing and reacting lower. This resistance level also roughly coincided with 38.2% Fibonacci level adding to the significance of this area. Market is ranging and a failure to penetrate the aforementioned resistance suggests that the price Gold will move lower before another attempt higher can be occur. This would lead to a creation of lower high which would have bearish indication and mean that the technical picture deteriorates. Currently we have a higher weekly high from May and a lower weekly low from the beginning of June. This picture gives mixed signals and forces us to focus on a longer term bearish indication from a down sloping 50 week SMA (coincided with May high). Also the downward sloping price channel that has been in force since the 2013 high was put in place at 1434 gives a similar indication. Since November price has been moving sideways near a support but the lack of momentum is indicating lack of serious long interest in this market. Price needs to make higher lows and break resistance levels in order to turn the picture more bullish.

Nearest support and resistance levels: 1162 and 1201.



Gold, Daily

Gold broke out of descending regression channel two weeks ago and after some hesitation in form of a sideways move moved to a resistance at 1201. Stochastics oscillator had also moved to overbought levels suggesting that price has moved too far and should have a correction. This resistance and upper Bollinger Bands were too much for buyers and after a sideways day on Friday, the price of Gold has moved lower today. The line of least resistance is on the downside today and price could move as low as 1172 support before significant buyers step in.

The nearest significant support levels are at 1172,1201 and 1214.60.



Gold, 240 min

The price of Gold has at the time of writing retraced back to 23.6% Fibonacci level. Stochastics oscillator is close to the oversold threshold but this indication should be taken with a pinch of salt as price is trading close to a higher time frame resistance level. In other words it is more likely that price will move lower before solid support is found. The first potential support levels are close to lower 4h Bollinger Bands near 1180. These levels also coincide with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1178.8 and a rising trendline drawn from the June 5th low. Nearest significant support and resistance levels: 1178 an 1205.

Conclusion

Longer term picture is mixed with Gold moving sideways and making both higher weekly highs and lower weekly lows. Since November price has been moving sideways near a support but the lack of momentum is indicating lack of long interest in this market. Price needs to make higher lows and break resistance levels in order to turn the picture more bullish. In the short term the price of Gold is trading lower from a resistance level with the first significant support levels at around 1180. I am looking for lower time frame sell signals with targets at 1184 (T1) and 1178 (T2).
    
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:25 am
Date : 23rd June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd JUNE 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD didn’t move much yesterday even though some positive news was received from the negotiations on financing Greece. The pair rallied to 1.1410 but failed creating both a 4h and eventually a daily rejection candles. This was very much in line with what I have been saying over the last week about EURUSD being limited on the upside to 1.1435 and with downside potential to 1.1000. The bearish wedge supported the view and now price action has confirmed this analysis with a breakout from the wedge. Today’s price action is likely downward biased with upside limited to 1.1319 while I see support between 1.1112 and 1.1148. The nearest significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1050 and 1.1434.

ECB has increased Emergency Lending Assistance to Greece this morning while the country has been now given 48 hours to reach a debt deal. EU leaders see progress in the Greek talks after the latest reform list showed a narrowing of the gap between creditors and the Tsipras administration and have given Greece 48 hours to finalise a deal. Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again on Wednesday and could sign off a package if there is a staff level agreement by then. EU heads of state will then meet again on

Thursday with the aim to finalise a deal by the end of the week. It is likely that this will include an extension of the current bailout agreement and financing of upcoming ECB and IMF repayments through existing ESM funds earmarked initially for Greek bank recapitalisation. Greek debt is likely to be lengthened or re-profiled, although given the current construction of the ESM holding most of Greece’s debt, an outright write off seems less likely.

The 5.1% May US existing home sales bounce to a 5.35 mln pace yesterday beat the prior 5.31 mln four-year high to leave the strongest pace since the spike to a 5.44 mln clip back in November of 2009 with the homebuyers’ tax credit. We also saw a 4.6% median price rise to $228,700 new cycle-high, as prices now sit near the all-time high of $229,500 in June of 2005. Sales have bounced sharply in the seasonally important spring season after a dismal Q1 performance, alongside big rebounds for pending sales, permits, and the MBA purchase index, though we still have an anemic pace of housing sector recovery overall, with lean inventories and a cyclical price uptrend.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

AUD and USD strength together with EUR weakness have been the main themes this morning. EURAUD has lost the most ground at the time of writing as the pair failed to penetrate a resistance yesterday and is now approaching the lower end of the sideways range. Another strong mover this morning is NZD against EUR. EURNZD is struggling to penetrate a weekly pivotal resistance level at 1.6445. EURGBP is also down this morning despite the fact that the pair is close to support levels and lower daily Bollinger Bands.

Nearest important daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

EURAUD               1.4427 / 1.4769
EURNZD               1.6159 / 1.6674
EURGBP               0.7110 / 0.7211



Main Macro Events Today

China’s June HSBC/Markit PMI rose to 49.6 from previous 49.1 even though it was expected to remain in contraction for the fourth straight month.

EMU PMI: Eurozone preliminary June PMI readings are expected to show a stabilisation in the manufacturing number at 53.6 (median same) and a decline in the services reading to 53.6 (med same) from 53.8 in the previous month, which should bring the composite down to 52.0 (med same) from 52.2. PMIs still point to ongoing expansion and national indicators are looking more even but there is no further acceleration in output growth and the data tie in with the ECB’s view that growth is broadening but not necessarily strengthening. This will leave the central bank firmly on course for full implementation of QE measures despite the pickup in headline inflation. Indeed, there still is some outside chance of a widening of asset purchases if the Greek crisis implodes and threatens to derail the recovery and stability in the rest of the Eurozone.

US New Home Sales. May new home sales should reveal a 1.0% decline to a 512k (median 520k) unit pace for the month following the 6.8% bounce to a 517k pace in April. Despite today’s firm existing home sales figures which had the headline pace up 5.1% there is still downside risk to tomorrow’s release from the NAHB decline to 54 in May and the fall in housing starts to 1,036k from 1,165k in April.

U.S. Durable Goods. May durable goods data should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders following a 1.0% drop in April. Shipments are seen rising by 0.5% with inventories up by 0.2% following respective April figures of -0.2% and 0.2%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.67 for a third month. There is downside risk to the report from the decline in Boeing orders to 11 from 37 in April and the weak industrial production figures which fell by 0.2% in May.



Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:05 pm
Date : 24th June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th JUNE 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Technical picture in EURUSD is bearish with price moving outside the bearish wedge I’ve had on the chart for quite some time now. Resistance area below 1.1239 is likely to turn price lower today and with no high quality support levels in proximity of current price action I am expecting to see another strong sell off today. My target for today’s move is 1.0937 as this level is likely to turn price higher again. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1207 and 1.0930.

An agreement at technical level with Greece needs to be on the table today, in time for Finance Ministers to sign off the agreement at the Euro group meeting Wednesday evening ahead of Thursday’s EU summit. Even if this goes without a hitch, Tsipras will still have to get the deal through parliament in Athens and then through the German parliament. So plenty yet that could go wrong and trigger another flip in fixed income markets.

Yesterday US new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May after rebounding 8.1% to 534k in April (revised from 517k) from the 9.4% March drop to 494k. That knocked the month’s supply to 4.5 from 4.6 (revised from 4.8). Regionally, sales were split with gains in the Northeast and West, and declines in the Midwest and South. The median sales price fell 2.9% to $282,800 from $291,100 (revised from $297,300). Prices are down 1.0% y/y versus the 6.0% y/y clip in April. Data are better than expected. The U.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slipped to 53.4 in June from May’s 54.0 and is down from April’s 54.1. It’s a third straight monthly decline and is the weakest reading since October 2013. However, employment and new orders were higher, with the former at its fastest pace since November. Average cost burdens were up for a second straight month.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

USD strength yesterday turned into weakness this morning with EURUSD and NZDUSD leading the pack. EUR pairs are seeing some strength across the board even though the German IFO was a disappointment today. AUD performance has been mixed while JPY is the loser this morning as it is down against almost all the competitors.

EURJPY came close to a support level at 138 and has now bounced higher but struggles with a resistance at 138.90. GBPJPY is one of the performers this morning as it’s trying to break above a sideways range it has been bound for a week. As this has been caused by the pair trading at resistance this is not an ideal spot to be a buyer in this pair. CHFJPY moving higher from the bottom end of an ascending triangle formation.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for aforementioned pairs are:

EURJPY                                 138.00  / 140.63
GBPJPY                                 194.63  /  195.35
CHFJPY                                 131.50  /  134.35

Main Macro Events Today

China’s June HSBC/Markit PMI rose to 49.6 from previous 49.1 even though it was expected to remain in contraction for the fourth straight month.

German IFO came in much weaker than expected, with the overall confidence reading falling to 107.4 from 108.5 against consensus expectations for a drop to 108.1. The weaker than expected number is in stark contrast to yesterday’s better than expected PMI readings, which showed improved sentiment in both services and manufacturing sectors. The IFO reading showed the third consecutive drop in the forward looking expectations number, which was likely impacted by uncertainty about Greece and is now at the lowest level since the start of the year.

Euro group meeting An agreement between Greece and its creditors needs to be reached in time for Finance Ministers to sign off at the Euro group meeting this evening, ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit.

US Gross Domestic Product The Q1 GDP growth is likely to be revised to -0.4% from -0.7% in the second release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. Forecast risk: downward, given last year’s big downside surprise for the second revision that may be on track for a repeat. Market risk for USD: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:28 pm
Date : 25th June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th JUNE 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s EURUSD trading was limited by the resistance level just below 1.1239. Market turned lower below this level as I expected and has since failed to push through this resistance but the selloff I anticipated didn’t materialize. Market has now formed a flag in 4h timeframe and projection from this formation suggests potential all the way down to 1.0915. The 50% Fibonacci level (measured from March low to May high) can be found at 1.0965 while my target of 1.0937 sits in between the aforementioned levels. The pair has been range bound with some effort to push the price higher but now it has moved below the 4h flag formation. I don’t expect yesterday’s high of 1.1234 to be exceeded today but look for a movement below latest pivot low at 1.1134 and towards my target. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1207 and 1.0930.

Pensions remained sticking point in Greek talks, according to the FT citing leaked documents covering creditors’ counter offers to Greece’s reform plans. Creditor demands are focusing on the time line for a raise in the retirement age as well as the time contributions have to be made to benefit from full pensions. The pension system has been a key issue of controversy right from the start with creditors demanding a comprehensive overhaul of a system where costs spiraled out of control over the last decades.

There already was one reform in 2012 but costs remain too high with creditors demanding further cuts, while at the same time recommending a basic social safety net, which so far doesn’t exist in Greece, leaving the pension of parents and grandparents a fall back for many unemployed.

TsIpras’s meeting with creditor officials run into the early hours of Thursday morning, but in the end there was still no deal on the table. Eurozone Finance Ministers, which had gathered Wednesday evening, had little to discuss, and called off their meeting early, while agreeing to meet again this afternoon. Negotiators have already re-started talks this morning and the discussions with Tsipras will continue at 9 am local time. European heads of state are gathering for a 2-day summit again today and it seems Tsipras is banking once again on discussions at leaders level, where he can play Greece’s card of strategic Nato partner in the south-east of Europe and threats to forge closer ties with Russia.

This ties in with Greece’s demands that the ESM take over Greece’s debt at the IMF and the ECB. Merkel, however, has repeatedly stressed that a deal with the institutions, including the IMF, is a prerequisite. A Greek government minister put the chances of a deal at just 50% now and Grexit is becoming a real possibility. Sticking points are reportedly mainly immediate emergency measures demanded by creditors, which want to see the government passing more reforms through parliament before handing over further cash.

Even if there is an agreement and that is a very big if now, Tsipras will still have to get the deal through parliament in Athens and may run into difficulties with the left wing of his coalition. If he loses the votes of some of his allies there may be a greater shift in government or a referendum after all. The German parliament, which also has to sign off the deal, said it won’t vote on any agreement before it has been rubber stamped by Greek lawmakers. And another extension of the bailout agreement, which seems likely, will mean more talks and public wrangling.

The U.S. Q1 GDP growth boost to -0.2% from -0.7% slightly beat estimates thanks to small upside surprises spread across consumption and intellectual property, though we generally saw the mostly expected modest hikes for private and public construction, and boosts of $4.5 bln for inventories and $0.4 bln for net exports that left a small hike in real final sales growth to a still-weak -0.6% from -1.1%.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

AUD strength really sticks out today. Australian Dollar is nicely up against everything else while EUR is weak and JPY is showing some strength. AUDUSD is moving higher from a rising channel support at 0.7700 while AUDCAD is approaching a resistance at 0.9594. GBPAUD is rolling over from a sideways formation after hitting a resistance at 2.0556. EURAUD has moved lower today after hitting a resistance at 1.4549 yesterday.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

German Jul GfK consumer confidence falls to 10.1 from 10.2 in June. The dip was a tad below market consensus. Greek concerns are likely to have weighed, although German sentiment reading remain at very high levels, amid a robust labour market and rising disposable income, which is not only boosted by low inflation, but also sizeable wage gains this year. The breakdown for the Gfk, which is only available until June, showed a marked decline in the reading for business expectations, while income expectations surged. The willingness to buy fell back slightly, but remains high. The German consumer will continue to support the recovery.

EU Extraordinary Economic Summit

US Personal income is expected to grow 0.4% in May, while consumption should be up 0.9%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger May employment report. Market risk: downward, as softening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

US initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 272k) in the week-ended June 20. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,225k for the week-ended June 13. Forecast risk: downward, as some risk remains from oil sector disruptions. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could delay rate hike expectations.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:44 pm
Date : 26th June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th JUNE 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD keeps on moving in a range while market participants wait for clues on what will happen with Greece. In previous reports I’ve pointed to a resistance below 1.1239 and suggested it would cap the upside yesterday and day before. This has been the case and price bars in both daily and 4h charts have been making lower highs. The bearish daily technical picture points to lower prices but the lack of downside momentum over the last two days and this morning forces me to question this indication.

Also, this being Friday and with no progress in Greece – EU negotiations in sight market might be range bound for yet another day. EURUSD has had a few narrow two to three day ranges since the March low but no such four day ranges. Therefore, we are approaching the breakout from this range. Range bound market means that the supply and demand are in a relative balance and therefore probabilities of price moving lower are now smaller. In other words, the likelihood of price moving up as easily as it could go down has increased. At the time of writing market has been rallying higher and towards the resistance levels.  Intraday price action at resistance will give us clues on how likely it is that the resistance will hold. Important daily support and resistance levels beyond the range are at 1.0930 and 1.1292.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

This morning it has been the commodity currencies that have taken beating. At the time of writing AUD and NZD are down against the majors. JPY has been attracting money from AUD and NZD while USD, EUR and GBP have not had constant performance one way or the other. NZDJPY has been moving lower for the last two weeks and is now trading relatively close to a weekly support level at 84.08 and right at a support zone created by a weekly pivot candle. AUDCHF rally failed from a resistance yesterday and has been now moving lower closer to a 4h pivotal support at 0.7182. The 0.7750 resistance proved too much for AUDUSD again yesterday and the pair fell down to lower 4h Bollinger Bands and close to a support provided by rising daily trendline. However, price has made lower highs in 4h resolution which suggests that this market is lacking in buy conviction.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

China’s June HSBC/Markit PMI rose to 49.6 from previous 49.1 even though it was expected to remain in contraction for the fourth straight month.

German May import price inflation was weaker than expected, falling back to -0.8% y/y from -0.6% y/y in April. Prices were down 0.2% m/m and for once not because of lower energy prices, but a sharp decline in prices for consumer goods. Prices for durable goods dropped 0.9% m/m and prices for non-durable goods fell 0.5% m/m. The monthly drop, which was likely impacted by the rebound in the EUR from the middle of April to the middle of May, brought the annual rate for imported consumer goods to a still relatively high 3.3% y/y.

BoE Governor Mark Carney Speech

EU Extraordinary Economic Summit The Q1 GDP growth is likely to be revised to -0.4% from -0.7% in the second release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. Forecast risk: downward, given last year’s big downside surprise for the second revision that may be on track for a repeat. Market risk for USD: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment:The second release on June Michigan Sentiment is out Friday and should be revised up to 95.0 (median 94.6) from 94.6 in the first release and 90.7 in May. The report has displayed a consistent, though, diminishing tendency toward upward revisions over the past year.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:31 pm
Date : 29th June 2015.

UPDATE ON GREECE.




The euro is under pressure in early-week trade as Greece’s talks with the Eurogroup broke down over the weekend, and the ECB refused to top up ELA assistance. Greece has consequently imposed capital controls and announced a referendum for next Sunday, which will determine whether the electorate has the stomach to exit the euro. Finally, after five years, the Greek drama is coming to a definitive head. Polls suggest that the people of Greece would rather compromise to stay in the euro than exit, but markets will remain on tenterhooks this week ahead of the referendum. Some key US data are also due this week, culminating with the release of the June payrolls report on Thursday (Friday is a holiday in the States). EURUSD hit a four-week low at 1.0953 after closing Friday at 1.1166, subsequently recovering above 1.1000. Recoveries will likely remain muted affairs, though incoming polls out of Greece will have potential to create volatility this week.

EURUSD is trading higher and tries to close the gap. Not suprisingly EUR is down against all the currencies but at the time of writing there is no sense of panic spreading across the FX markets. This is evidenced at the time of writing by EURUSD trading higher after the gap opening. Asian, European and US equity futures markets are down and Gold is trading higher by  0.4%.

EURUSD remains bearish as it is difficult to anticipate what the political players will do and how it impact markets. Over the next few days we should see trading opportunities for technical traders that know how to take advantage of nervous markets and volatility. EURUSD has a resistance level not far above current price action at 1.1130 which in the light of what’s happening with Greece suggests that EURUSD will trade lower after the return move is over. The June 1st candle seems to be the first pivotal support area and I expect this support hold today unless new suprising news items come up.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:11 pm
Date : 30th June 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th JUNE 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The Swiss National Bank has confirmed it engaged in a currency intervention yesterday in EURCHF as the bank sees CHF being too expensive versus EUR (EURCHF being too low). This supported both EURCHF and to certain degree other EUR pairs in yesterday’s trading.  As a result EURUSD moved through the resistance level at 1.1130 and spike up to 1.1278 before falling down again. As per EURUSD futures today’s trading has been careful with light volumes after yesterday’s strong volatility. Strong movement higher from a support suggests that there is further upside ahead in EURUSD. I am seeing intraday support between 1.1110 and 1.1140 while significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1006 and 1.1292.

According to ECB’s Coeure Grexit can no longer be excluded. The executive board member said in France’s les Echos that a Greek exit from the Eurozone can unfortunately no longer be excluded, even if the ECB and Eurozone institutions want Greece to stay. Coeure said the European proposals gave Greece time and autonomy to take reform steps, adding that it was Greece’s decision to end the negotiations. Coerue also said that a “No” in the referendum would make it very difficult to continue the political dialogue.

Many commentators are now asking what Greece will be voting on this Sunday. For EU Commission President, the July 5 referendum will be a vote on Greece’s future in Europe, for the Greek opposition it is a vote on EMU membership, but for Tsipras and Syriza it is a way to change bailout terms. The Greek government is still selling a “No” to the creditor’s bailout offer as a chance to get improved conditions, but in reality, the offer will likely no longer be on the table on July 5 and without a bailout program in place the ECB will have difficulties defending its ongoing ELA assistance, which effectively turns it into a lender of last resort and the financier of the Greek government, something the Eurozone treaties clearly rule out. For now Draghi just decided to freeze the amount of ELA, but with the bailout program running out tomorrow, the ECB’s review of the situation on Wednesday could not only end re-financing for Greek banks, but also the Greek government, at least within the Eurozone system.

Yesterday US Dallas Fed manufacturing index improved to -7.0 in June after falling to -20.8 in May. This is a 6th consecutive month that the regional index has been in contractionary territory (below zero), which is mainly a function of the recession in the oil sector. US pending home sales rose 0.9% to 112.6 in May, it’s a 5th straight monthly gain, from a revised 2.7% increase April to 111.6 (was 112.4). Regionally, sales were up in the Northeast (6.3%) and West (2.2%), but lower in the Midwest (-0.6%) and South (-0.8%). Compared to last year, sales are up 8.3% y/y from 12.6% y/y.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

All currencies have been losing ground against the JPY today as EUR has been falling against everything else but weak NZD. This speaks of need to find a safe haven. With GBP and AUD having mixed performances EUR uncertainty and a need safe haven definitely are the main themes for today. The way to participate in this action is to trade EURJPY which is down by over 1.20% at the time of writing.

The biggest movers at the time of writing are NZDUSD, EURJPY, GBPNZD, AUDNZD, NZDJPY.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

German May retail sales rose 0.5% m/m, against expectations for a correction from the strong April number, which showed sales up 1.3% m/m. Still, the three months trend rate continues to decelerate from the peak of 2.4% back in February and the annual rate fell into negative territory.

Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator much weaker than expected at 89.7 in the headline reading for June. This is well down on the Bloomberg median forecast of 93.7 and also down from the 93.1 reading of May. The unexpected reversal will be a concern for Swiss policymakers given the sharp appreciation of the franc earlier in the year. The SNB confirmed that it intervened in the currency market yesterday, buying EURCHF.

German June jobless numbers dropped 1K, less than expected, as unemployment ticked slightly higher in West Germany. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained unchanged at a very low 6.4%, but the data highlights that the slowing down in economic momentum, that showed up in the surveys in recent months, is starting to have an impact on the labour market.

Eurozone CPI TheCore CPI was confirmed as forecast at 0.8% in June. A 0.2% rise from 0.6% in May while the headline number came in at 0.2% after being flat in May.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:55 pm
Date : 1st July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD found support at the lower end of my support range (1.1110 – 1.1140) yesterday and was moving sideways inside this range overnight. At the time of writing price is again at intraday support at 1.1100 after reacting higher from it earlier today. I have been expecting today’s trading being limited between 1.1100 support and resistance at 1.1201 as market participants wait to see how the Greek drama develops but there seems to be no momentum from this support. Therefore the emphasis will be on watching the price action at current levels in order to see if buyers are stepping in or out of the way. Weekly picture suggests that EURUSD could be range bound between 1.0955 and 1.1466 for several weeks unless something extraordinary and unexpected happens. Significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1006 and 1.1292.

Greece defaulted on its IMF repayment yesterday and today Tsipras is prepared to to accept bailout conditions. Greece’s latest letter to creditors says Greece is “prepared to accept this Staff Level Agreement subject to the following amendments, additions or clarifications as part of the extension of the expiring EFSF program and the new ESM Loan Agreement”. The FT reports that the two page letter was sent as a clarification to yesterday’s surprise ESM loan request. The Eurogroup will discuss it in a teleconference at 15.30GMT today. The mentioned amendments are reportedly are only a handful of minor changes. If confirmed, this will clearly help the ECB to extent ELA assistance for now and the referendum may be called off.

German Finance Minister Schaeuble is still taking tough line on Greece, saying the letter from Tsipras that accepted most of the bailout conditions lacks clarity and that Greece’s proposals still aren’t a basis for serious measures. The euro has given back most of the gains it saw following the earlier news of the Tsipras letter.

An IMF default would not have necessarily meant a cut off in ELA, which so far has only been frozen at last week’s level, as according to earlier Reuters reports citing an ECB official Greek banks could still have ruled to be solvent for up to 5 days after the non-payment to the IMF. However, without a bailout program in place and no clear hope of another one, Draghi would likely have faced growing resistance in the council with Weidmann already questioning previously if ongoing emergency assistance doesn’t violate the prohibition of direct government financing through the ECB. This will still be the case, but if both sides are at least negotiating again, Draghi will unlikely want to be the one to pull the plug, at least for now.

Yesterday US consumer confidence surged to 101.4 in June from 94.6 in May (revised down from 95.4). It ties the March reading, and is the second highest print this year, bested only by the 103.8 in January. The latter was the highest since June 2007. The present situations component rose to 111.6 from 107.1 (revised from 108.1). The expectations index was 94.6 from 86.2 previously (revised from 86.9). The labor market differential improved to -4.3 versus -6.6. The 12-month inflation gauge edged uo to 5.1% from 5.0% (revised from 5.1%).

Fed’s Fischer said the FOMC will consider hiking rates in coming months, but did’t elaborate on the timing. The Fed VC, speaking on Monetary Policy in the US and in Developing Countries from Oxford University, added the the economy likely warrants only gradual moves and that the Fed is mindful of the risks of premature tightening. Growth should accelerate to about a 2.5% pace in Q2, and the pickup in the economy should further tighten the labor market. The dollar has been a significant headwind to growth. The Fed will monitor spillover effects in emerging markets.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

At the time of writing there has been no strong movement in most of the pairs. CHF has lost some ground and NZD moved against other currencies after being weak yesterday.  NZDJPY has moved against the prevailing trend and is now close to levels (83.50) it could sell off again (currently trading at 83.28). EURNZD is trading at intraday support but is close to a weekly resistance level at 1.6445. GBPNZD has also retraced to a support level at 2.3050 and is trading higher now. GBPCHF is trading close to 1.4795 resistance while AUDCHF is trading also near resistance and upper daily Bollinger Bands.

Significant support and resistance levels for NZD pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

China’s manufacturing PMI numbers came in short of expectations. The HSBC/Markit PMI slipped to a final 49.4 in June from the preliminary or flash 49.6 reading, but did manage to top the 49.2 seen in May. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in June from 50.9 in May. The contractionary reading for the HSBC/Markit PMI and the erosion in the official PMI highlight the ongoing difficulties in China’s economy. The Shanghai composite is hovering around unchanged.

UK Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 52.5 (median same) and the Swiss PMI to pick up to 49.9 from 49.7, although after Tuesday’s KOF miss there has to be a risk to the downside and it seems the strong currency is having more of a negative impact than feared.

US Manufacturing ISM. The June ISM is out on Wednesday and should show an increase to 53.0 (median 53.1) from 52.8 in May. Other measures for the month have generally improved and we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to climb to 53 for the month after holding at 51 in both May and April. It appears that producers have adjusted to the hit from falling oil prices over the winter and are once again feeling more confident.

U.S. Construction Spending. May construction data is out Wednesday and is expected to remain unchanged (median 0.3%) following a 2.2% bounce in April and a 0.5% clip in March. There is some downside risk that mixed housing data for May could weigh on the report.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:54 am
Date : 2nd July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd July 2015.




EURUSD, 60 min

EURUSD didn’t attract enough buyers yesterday but traded lower on slightly better than expected US macro releases. The pair moved all the way down to support at 1.1032 and is after failed push higher the pair is moving sideways. The pair is still trending lower in a downward regression channel and a breakout accompanied with a higher low is needed to change the picture more positive. The next intraday resistance at 1.1095 is fairly close and coincides with the Bollinger Bands while 50 period SMA is currently at 1.1132. Move closer to May 27th pivotal low looks likely if EURUSD stays in the channel today but the proximity of Monday’s low should slow the tempo. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0937 and 1.1135.

Eurozone markets are bouncing back and Bund and Gilt futures are under pressure as safe haven flows receded on hopes of a Greek deal, but the risk of another set back remains high. The Greek referendum is still on and with Tsipras still calling for a “No” to the last creditor offer, Eurozone officials decided to hold off any future talks until the referendum is through. It looks like the yes camp is shrinking amid the banking closure, but Tsipras continues to sell the vote as a chance to get a better deal, while Eurozone officials see it as a vote on Eurozone membership. The latter would get a resounding “Yes”, but that is not how the referendum will be worded. For now the ECB is keeping the Greek banks and implicitly the government afloat with ongoing ELA assistance, but the question is how long Draghi will be able to maintain the Greek banks are essentially solid.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed upside surprises across the ISM, ADP, and construction spending figures, though vehicle sales are posting a 3% June drop-back from a May cycle-high that trimmed the day’s good news. For construction, we had revisions back through 2013 that lifted the construction trajectory into Q2 after what is now a smaller winter-weather hit, hence lifting growth prospects despite restraint in new home construction. The ISM popped to 53.5 from 52.8 with a employment spike to 55.5 from 51.7, while ADP posted a solid 237k June rise that defied the typical downward bias in as-reported ADP figures.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

Yesterday, I pointed out that NZDJPY was at levels it could sell off again. At the time of writing NZDJPY is trading 0.61% below yesterday’s close. NZD is also down against EUR as EURNZD has been rising (up 0.95%) from the support identified in yesterday’s report. GBPNZD has been another nice runner since the publication of my report yesterday, up by 0.80% from yesterday’s close.

This morning AUD weakness against everything else but NZD sticks out while USD and EUR are seeing some strength against the majors. GBP and JPY have mixed performance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for AUD pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of June 27th is out Thursday and we expect to see the headline remain about steady at 270k (median 272k) from 271k in the week prior. Claims have generally improved in June and look poised to leave a 272k average for the month following a 274k average in May.

US Factory Goods Preview: May factory goods orders are out on Thursday and should reveal a 0.5% (median -0.5%) decline for orders with shipments up 0.4% and inventories down 0.1% for the month. This follows respective April figures of -0.7% for orders, flat for shipments and 0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast should leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.34 for a third month.

US Non-Farm Payrolls: June employment data is out on Thursday and should reveal a 230k (median 230k) headline employment increase following a 280k bounce in May. We expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.4% (median 5.4%) from 5.5% in May.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 02, 2015 3:25 pm
Date : 2nd July 2015. (Second Analysis)

USDJPY AT RESISTANCE BEFORE US PAYROLLS.




USDJPY, Daily

USDJPY has rallied from 121.85 – 122.08 support identified in one of the recent Live Analysis Webinars. Those attending the webinar had an excellent opportunity pick up a decent gain. Now the pair is trading just below a horizontal resistance at 123.64 and at the upper end of a bullish wedge. The next important resistance level lies at 124.44.

Please, remember that due to US holiday tomorrow, the Non Farm Payroll data is released today and as per usual is likely to increase volatility after release. In general Forex market participants have remained largely noncommittal into the US payrolls report and Sunday’s referendum in Greece.

A big conundrum is that Greek PM Tsipras is seeing the vote as a chance to get a better deal with creditors, but Eurozone officials see it as a vote on Eurozone membership. S&P Ratings is estimating 60% odds of Grexit. Elsewhere, USDJPY lifted to a four-day peak of 123.59, and subsequent dips have remained shallow. AUDUSD logged a three-day low at 0.7598, though the Aussie saw fresh highs against the underperforming NZD, which has been affected by fresh RBNZ rate cut calls from market economists and NZ milk production downgrades. USDCAD logged an 11-week peak at 1.2663.

US Payroll Expectations:

June nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 230k, with a 210k private payroll gain.
Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind.
Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.4% from 5.5% in May.
The workweek is expected to hold at 34.5 for a fourth month.
Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.1% which would leave a 2.2% y/y rise.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 08, 2015 1:37 pm
Date : 8th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD traded between the nearest support and resistance levels yesterday as was expected. The 1.0930 support attracted buyers and after printing a low of 1.0916 price rallied to 1.1052. Weekly pivot bar from end of May has been providing support but at the time of writing there are no definite signs of price reversing the current downtrend. Price is trending lower in a 4h 2 stdv regression channel and is at the time of writing near channel high and not that far from 1.1048 resistance level. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1048.

Greece gets until Sunday to reach a deal. Euro group and EU leaders meeting yesterday once again failed to reach an agreement with Greece amid a lack of concrete proposals from Tsipras. Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Euro group ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request. The final deadline to reach an agreement at technical level seems to be Friday and a deal must be reached at a summit on Sunday. German Chancellor Merkel said she was not particularly optimistic and EU Commission President Juncker said Grexit scenarios have been prepared in detail. The ECB meanwhile stands ready to try and limit contagion. It seems this time the game really will be up Sunday if there is no miracle.

Eurogroup and EU summit yesterday once again didn’t get very far amid the lack of new proposals from Greece. EU President Tusk was left to say that a formal request for ESM aid was expected today, Thursday at the latest, while stressing the strict conditionality of ESM treaties. So if Tsipras thought by not extending the bailout and going to the ESM instead he would get more leeway he will have been disappointed. Greece said it will send a formal request for ESM aid today, while EU’s Dombrovkis said Greece was ready to present reform proposals tomorrow.

In an unusually clear way Tusk set Sunday as the very last deadline for a deal with Greece, while urging both sides to work together to come to an agreement. German Chancellor Merkel was not very optimistic however and EU Commission President Juncker said detailed Grexit scenarios have been prepared. The ECB meanwhile continues to stand ready to limit the fallout from the Greek crisis.

U.S. JOLTS report showed job rose 29k in May after a 225k increase in April to 5,363k (revised from 267k to 5,376k). The job openings rate was steady at 3.6 (April was nudged down from 3.7%). Hirings fell 34k following a revised 54k drop in April (was -81k). The rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% (April revised up from 3.5%). There was a 10k decline in quitters after a 60k drop previously (revised from -100k). The quit rate was unchanged at 1.9%. The May data won’t have market impact.

U.S. trade deficit widened 2.9% to $41.9 bln in May, after narrowing 19.5% to -$40.7 bln in April (revised from -$40.9 bln). Imports dipped 0.1% following the 3.3% April decline. Exports slid 0.8% after the 1.1% gain in April (revised from 1.0%). Excluding petroleum, the trade balance fell to -$36.1 bln from -$33.9 bln in April (revised from -$34.1 bln).




Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

This morning the strongest movers have been among the AUD and JPY pairs. AUD weakness has been mirrored by JPY strength. This makes sense as Chinese stock market has been plummeting over the last couple of weeks and today Hang Seng Composite is down by 8%, a massive move that really tells about panic over Chinese stock market. China is a huge consumer of copper and iron ore that Australia produces and any problems in the economy are likely to have a major impact on Australia. Thus the weakness in AUD while JPY is up due to its safe haven status.

Key support and resistance levels in AUDJPY: 88.25 and 90.48 and NZDJPY 79.89 and 85.32

Main Macro Events Today

EU Extraordinary Economic Summit: Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Eurogroup ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request.

FOMC Minutes: The Fed is expected to be more optimistic about the US economy reaching their 2% inflation target. We are also likely to see some optimism on personal consumption.

US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:24 am
Date : 9th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has found support at a weekly pivot candle and moved closed above the previous day’s high yesterday making this candle a new pivot. The pair rose slightly after yesterday’s close and has at the time of writing failed to challenge the trend channel bottom and a resistance level at 1.1117. This level is not far from a weekly low at 1.1130 and therefore made buyers hesitant. This level also coincided with the upper Bollinger Bands in a 4h chart. Market has been now moving lower after a 60 min rejection candle at 1.1170 resistance was created. I am seeing support at 1.0957 to 1.0976. Significant daily support and resistance levels: 1.0930 and 1.1135.

European stocks rose slightly yesterday and futures are pointing to a higher opening today, while core bond yields rose and peripheral yields declined following Greece’s formal request for a 3-year ESM loan program. The details of the promised reform plans were once again missing though and the risk is another setback, if today’s reform list once again falls short of expectations. For many Grexit becomes the main scenario now.

FOMC minutes revealed concerns over Greece and China, among other considerations, that encouraged a steady policy stance, as was evident in the policy statement and other materials. While views on the economy and labor market were generally upbeat, as Q1 sluggishness was attributed to temporary factors and seasonal adjustment issues, there were offsetting elements that reflected a very cautious group of policymakers. A number of officials warned against premature tightening and wanted to see stronger conditions before pulling the trigger. It was also stressed that policy decisions would be on a meeting-by-meeting basis. With the Greek and Chinese situations having eroded further since the June 16, 17 meeting, the FOMC may be even more gun-shy about liftoff, adding to market speculation the Fed could remained sidelined in September. We’ll wait for Yellen’s upcoming comments, as well as data, before we shift out of our September forecast.

Yesterday’s US consumer credit climbed $16.1 bln in May after a $21.4 bln April surge (revised up from $20.5 bln). Non revolving credit paced the strength with a $14.5 bln increase versus the $12.9 bln gain in April (revised from $11.9 bln). Revolving credit was up $1.6 bln versus the prior $8.5 bln print (revised from $8.6 bln).




Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

After yesterday’s strong movements in favour of JPY we are now seeing a rather strong reversal. This suggests that the need for safe haven did go a bit too far in some of the JPY pairs. CADJPY for instance reached a daily pivot candle from March and is reacting strongly higher from it. GBPJPY hit a weekly pivot high from February this year and bounced higher. USDJPY found support from a range formed in May but has resistance above. There should be more volatility and trading opportunities in these pairs over the coming days.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

China’s CPI grew at a 1.4% y/y pace in June, better than expected following the 1.2% pace in May that was the slowest pace since January’s 0.8% growth rate. CPI was a year peak of 1.5% y/y in April.

Australia’s employment rose 7.1k in June, contrary to an expected dip after a revised 40.0k gain in May (was +42.0k) The unemployment rate rose to 6.0% in June but from a revised 5.9% in May, leaving an unemployment rate that undershot expectations in June.

BoE Interest Rates Decision. Bank of England is expected to maintain the current level of interest rate at 0.5%. The BoE should once again announce a no-change outcome, which would be a non-event for markets as the central bank doesn’t normally issue statements after unchanged decisions, so we’ll have to wait until the minutes are published on Jul-22 for insight.

US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly from the previous number of 281k to 275k.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:06 pm
Date : 10th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is yet once again trading at the same resistance it failed to penetrate yesterday. After moving lower the pair found support at 1.1000 support. Earlier on the day the disappointing US jobless claims figures failed to move market significantly but later in the US session buyers stepped in at around 1.1000 support and sent EUR higher. Higher low formed yesterday suggests that EURUSD will try to push higher today. At the time of writing the pair has reacted lower from the daily resistance created by rising trend channel and 1.1135 resistance. However the pair has also made a high print of 1.1134 (yesterday’s high was 1.1125) and found support from 1.1080 while the next significant intraday resistance level is at 1.1188. I am expecting EURUSD to move higher and towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance today. The nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1135.

Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday’s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.

Greece’s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor’s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn’t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.

ECB ultimatum may have aided reform concessions. A dutch newspaper reported that the ECB will terminate ELA as of 6 am Monday morning if Greek reform proposals are deemed too light and Greece is unwilling to cooperate with withdrawal from the Eurozone. The reports cites an unidentified EU official and the ECB’s final ultimatum may have helped to produce somewhat of a turnaround in Greece, which seems to have finally ended the posturing and put meat on the reform proposals.

U.S. initial jobless claims surged 15k to 297k in the July 4 week, following the 11k jump to 282k in the prior week (revised from 281k). This brought the 4-week moving average to 279.5k versus 275k (revised from 274.75k. Continuing claims jumped 69k to 2,334k in the week ended June 27 from 2,265k in the prior week (revised from 2,264k). The larger than expected increase in jobless claims is likely more a function of the July 4 holiday than a change in the labor market, even though the BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.




Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)

This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains mixed and without strong directional bias. USDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 122.08 while EURJPY battles with a resistance level at 135.72. CADJPY is nicely up from the support at 94.83 and same applies to GBPJPY that has rallied from 185.02 support. NZDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 82.51.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

Japan PPI dropped 2.4% y/y in June, from -2.2% y/y in May, and -2.1% in April. For the month, PPI declined 0.2%, ending a string of 3 straight gains. The data are having little impact as the focus is on the rally in risk assets on hope Greece can strike a deal now they have finally submitted reform proposals. The Topix is up over 1% while JGBs are lower as safety trades are unwound. JPY is also losing ground versus the EUR and USD.

Canadian Employment Change: employment is likely to fall 15.0k in June (median -7.5k) after the 58.9k surge in May. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar) followed by declines (Feb, Apr). Will June be different? We are betting not, especially given that May was the largest one month gain since October of 2014′s 62.2k. An as-expected drop would be supportive of another rate cut this year.

US Fed Chair Yellen’s Speech



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jul 13, 2015 12:40 pm
Date : 13th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

I was expecting EURUSD to move towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance on Friday. This resistance was reached and then penetrated before EURUSD fell back to 1.1125 S&R level. This morning EURUSD rallied to the same resistance area after the news that Euro group had reached a deal on helping Greece.  At the time of writing the pair has corrected lower and reached a support level at 1.1056.  There is intraday resistance at 1.1085 which is likely to cause troubles for longs. Daily technical picture looks weak after the pair has not been able to stay inside the rising trend channel. Resistance at 1.1190 is a weekly pivotal candle low while 1.1000 is a weekly pivotal candle high and has been providing support to EURUSD.

Eurozone reaches deal on Greece that could pave the way for a third bailout programme. After epic talks there was finally a deal that will allow Greece to stay in the Eurozone, if, and that is still a rather big if, Tsipras gets sufficient backing for further concessions at home and the other countries manage to get the deal through their respective legislative processes. German lawmakers, who won the right to sanction even the mandate for talks on a bailout package, won’t be very happy to be presented with what looks like a done deal, even if formal talks are still to start. Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said trust was a key issue in the talks and confirms that a fund will “monetize” some Greek assets. There will be no debt forgiveness for Greece, according to Malta’s Muscat.

The Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a cautiously optimistic view of the economy in her speech on Friday, though affirming that a rate hike later this year is appropriate, assuming “unanticipated developments” don’t delay or accelerate it.  The Fed’s biggest challenge is to make sure the financial system is strong enough and resilient enough to whether another crisis like that of the last decade. It’s the Fed’s task to be much more vigilant and much better prepared than was the case previously.

Yellen also took a swipe at the IMF saying that advice from the fund on US rates is “part of the spectrum opinion” on appropriate policy and the overemphasis on timing of the lift-off is less important than the full path of policy over time. In other words, thanks for your advice on holding off on rate hikes until 2016, Madame Lagarde, but no thanks. Fed looks at a number of labor market metrics as they judge the degree of slack in the market. Currently she judges that there is more slack in the data than is suggested by the current 5.3% rate. The Committee generally sees the 5.0% to 5.2% range as a normal rate, she said.

The 0.8% US May wholesale inventory rise beat estimates on Friday to signal some upside Q2 GDP growth risk, though a lean 0.3% May sales rise only slightly extended the 1.7% (was 1.6%) April pop, and much of the inventory strength reflected a price-led 4.4% petroleum inventory rise. The sales rise was disappointing and left a mixed report for the outlook overall, though we at least now have the first two gains for this measure since July of last year. Today’s wholesale trade figures are consistent with our 2.7% Q2 GDP growth estimate, with a $35 bln Q2 inventory subtraction that follows a $19.5 bln Q1 addition, with a still-elevated $64 bln Q2 accumulation rate that leaves room for a small further inventory unwind into Q3.




Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the last daily close at 23:59:59 server time. The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

After the news about Euro group reaching a deal on Greece money has been flowing out of CHF and to some extent from EUR as well. The clear winner has been the GBP with CHF losing the most against it, a sign of unwinding risk aversion trades. Market participants are more prepared to accept risk again but seem to prefer looking for returns in a currency that is deemed the next in line after the USD in rising rates.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for GBP pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

Japan industrial production and Tertiary Index disappointed and came in at -3.9% and -0.7% respectively.

Eurogroup meeting.A deal was struck to help Greece. Now the deal has to be accepted in local parliaments.

US Treasury Budget: June treasury data is out today and should reveal a $50 bln (median $41.0 bln) surplus for the month following an $82.4 bln deficit last month and a $70.5 bln surplus a year ago. Receipts are expected to be up 6% y/y with outlays up 15.8% y/y.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:12 pm


The New Traders’ Board Page And Currency Movers Charts Tool

An all new Traders’ Board page is now public at Hotforex.com. We launched a new tool called Currency Movers Charts to serve You better. It displays both overnight and five day percentage changes in the major currencies against the other majors. Now you can, with just a glance, see how money is flowing between different currencies in Forex markets. With this tool you can identify the currency that’s currently attracting money at and over the last five days’ period while Currency Movers Charts also reveals which currency money is flowing out from.



EURNZD, 240 min

At the time of writing EUR is attracting money from other currencies while NZD and JPY have been losing some. The strongest performer intraday is EURNZD. In longer term picture the pair is trading at historical resistance created by a pivot in early 2014. Momentum is slowing down and should lead to a reversal. In intraday timeframe however the pair has rallied from a 4h support level and is currently trading just below a 50 period SMA but is moving higher from the downsloping trend channel top. The pair has some space above before it hits resistance at the previous day’s high at 1.6535.



AUDJPY, 240 min

AUDJPY is also interesting as it was the best performer earlier this morning. Over the last few days the pair has risen to a gap caused by the Greek drama couple of weeks ago. This could lead to a correction lower but because the pair is trading relatively close to 2015 weekly lows the downside is likely to be limited. Additionally, last week’s candle was a pinbar suggesting institutional buying between 89.00 and 91.20. Therefore, retracements back to 90.40 – 90.80 could provide us with low risk entries to this market. Look for momentum reversal signals to confirm the idea.

Five Day % Change

Another way of using Currency Movers Charts is identify strongly moving currencies over a period of time . GBP has been strong over the last five days with the biggest gains against the JPY. At the same time JPY has been the currency that has lost most against the other currencies over the same period. This indicates that market psychology has changed and participants have been moving away from safe havens into more riskier assets. This gives us insights on how markets feel about the future and how market participants have been positioning themselves.




GBPAUD, Weekly

GBP strength has been very evident lately but the GBPAUD has had a real bull run. The pair has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The fact that this has taken the pair to a historical resistance at 2.0948 and regression channel high gives us a reason to look for reversal signals as the pair might have moved too far and is getting close to a point were it will correct lower. Look for signs of momentum reversal in daily time frame. Weekly high from February (at 2.0028) is a likely long term target for shorts after the sell signals appear.


You can access the all new Traders Board page and Currency Movers Charts Tool by clicking 
HERE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:52 pm
Date : 16th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.  This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD.  AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
• CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
• GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:17 pm
Date : 16th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA




S&P 500, Weekly

Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market.  Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.



S&P 500, Daily

Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.



S&P 500, 240 min

ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

Conclusion

Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.
  
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 225
Points : 1342
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:23 pm
Date : 17th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

• US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

•  Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:49 pm
Date : 17th July 2015(Second Analysis).

DOWNTRENDING AUDCAD HAS RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AREA.




AUDCAD, Weekly

AUDCAD has been moving lower in a wide trend channel after failing to penetrate at parity in the beginning of the year. Downtrend is clearly taking place as we have lower highs and lower lows but at the same time we need to acknowledge that this movement is taking place close to a longer term range low. AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend before breaking below the long term range bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

This week the pair has rallied strongly from lower Bollinger Bands and a support area near 0.9331. AUDCAD is now approaching top of downward sloping price channel which suggests that the short term upside is getting limited. This area also coincides with a weekly resistance level at 0.9664 and a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9648. This resistance also lines up with a level that used to support price on closing basis in February this year. The nearest weekly support level is at the latest low at 0.9376 while the next significant weekly support level is at 0.9331.



AUDCAD, Daily

Price has been rallying higher for four consecutive days and is currently trading at July 1st. pivotal candle low. Several technical factors coincide around the current price level: channel top, upper Bollinger Bands and a pivot high from July 1st. These factors together suggest that price could turn lower from here. Additionally, Stochastics Oscillator is trading above the overbought threshold adding to the indication that this down trending market is quite overbought and therefore vulnerable at the current levels.

Price action today shows some signs of weakness as the pair is trading near opening price after a rally higher was rejected. However, it is still too early make conclusions based on today’s candle as trading action over the rest of the day is likely to change the form of this price bar significantly.

The next significant daily support level coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9515 while the nearest significant daily resistance level is at 0.9664.



AUDCAD, 240 min

The pair built a small base between July 6th and 14th and has since rallied almost the distance equivalent to the base width. The pair is at the time of writing AUDCAD is still finding support from a minor support level at 0.9584 and tries to rally higher. However, Stochastics is overbought and shows signs of slowing momentum as it is very close to moving below its signal line.

Conclusion

AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend rather than breaking below the long term range low. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

However, as long as we have a down trending market at a resistance, it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities. In short term, the pair is trading at resistance while still inside a downward trend channel. This suggests a move lower from current levels is more likely than a breakout from the channel. Look for momentum reversal signals between 0.9594 and 0.9664. If short trade signals take place and are successful then my targets are T1: 0.9515 and T2: 0.9475.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:32 pm
Date : 20th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, despite bearish momentum signals by stochastic oscillator analysis and a “Dow Pattern” down trend observation within the daily chart, may look to bounce off the May 27th low (1.0819) level to seek a lower top, ideally, around the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s. Short term traders may look into selling at any strength around the mentioned lower tops with targets into the 1.0750’s.

The EUR economic calendar started out this week with steady German June PPI inflation data; German inflation fell -1.4& y/y with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices dropped 4.1% m/m. Last week, the EUR faced several important thresholds in terms of the ECB policy meeting and some resolutions regarding Greece. This week, we have a relatively light economic calendar so traders should expect to see lower volatility levels from last week with price action firmly in control of the technical traders.

The dollar is firm against gold and the AUD in overnight Asian trade, although, the AUD has since recovered off today’s lows. This USD strength is set to resume from Friday trade as in-line CPI and better housing starts, numbers give support to the USD.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• German Jun PPI inflation: was steady at -1.4% y/y, with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices declined 4.1% m/m, after rising 2.4% m/m in May. Energy prices dropped 4.4% y/y and remain the dominating factor behind the sharp decline in prices over the year.

• CAD Wholesale Sales: for May are forecasted to come in at 0.5%, median -0.2% down from last 1.9% on the back of weaker commodity prices.

• USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks: is due to speak about the importance of financial reform.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:46 pm
Date : 20th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

WEAK GOLD REACTED LOWER AS CHINA BOUGHT LESS GOLD THAN EXPECTED.




Gold, Weekly

Gold traded slightly below a major support level at 1130.40 on Friday and then moved even lower in Globex session at 2:30 am London time this morning. Price of Gold is down by 1.58% at the time of writing after Gold futures market was hit hard when it was at its weakest. Gold was trading at 1125 at the time when suddenly trading volumes increased by over 100% relative to average volumes over the past few hours. This aggressive selling during the hours when the market is at its thinnest took Gold down to a next major support level at 1080.

I warned about Gold’s long term weakness in my two previous reports. In June 8th report I pointed out that price action in Gold since the US Dollar index (DXY) started topping has not supported the Relative Strength idea. A market that has true relative strength bounces sharply higher when factors constraining its move higher are removed. This never happened in Gold even though the restraining factor of DXY strength was removed for a while. In my June 22nd report I pointed out several bearish indications in the long term technical picture: lower highs, a lower pointing 50 period SMA together with downward sloping trend channel and the fact that lack of momentum is indicating lack of serious long interest in this market.

This morning’s move took Gold down to a historical support from 2010 and very close to the lower end of the price channel. This bounced the price sharply higher while nearest resistance level is relatively close at 1130.40. The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1135.60 coincides with this resistance. The next resistance area is approx. at 1142.



Gold, Daily

News that China has been much more moderate buyer in gold than it was thought to be contributed to the fall. For the first time in six years China unveiled how much gold it had accumulated since 2009. While markets had assumed that the Chinese government had been buying gold at a rate of approximately 40 tonnes per month the real number was just slightly above 8 tonnes. This added to the bearishness as one big buyer was much less active than was suggested by the analysts.

After trending lower in a regression channel the price of gold has now made an extended move to the downside. The levels near the long term channel bottom attracted some serious buying as gold has rallied over three percent from today’s low. The nearest significant resistance level is at 1130.40 while next resistance is at 1146. The 1130.40 resistance coincides with the channel low. The 1080 level at today’s low is obviously the nearest support level in the daily time frame.



Gold, 240 min

As price has moved so quickly lower there isn’t much to comment in terms of technical analysis. Also, the four hour picture is not significantly different from the daily chart. Price has rallied from a support and is now trading close to the mid-range of the previous candle. The lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band has limited the move higher and the price of gold has reacted slightly lower from the band over the last two hours. The nearest 4h resistance level is at 1129.60 while the support level is at 1080.

Conclusion

The long term weakness that was visible in price action has now materialized in a form of a sharp move lower through weekly support levels at 1130 and 1141.70. These broken supports together with a former daily support at 1146 are now  a likely resistance area. Long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold but in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Obviously price move can turn inside this range and not at the exact levels but the principle stays the same: we should see price action based confirmation before considering short positions.

Janne Muta
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:58 pm
Date : 21st July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having cleared the 1.0840’s, is currently testing the May 27th lows as price action managed to dip briefly to 1.0811 earlier today in what looked like limit orders being filled. However, buyers soon emerged to pushed price back above the 1.0820 key support area. Traders should expect price to re-test the 1.0820 area several times as buyers seem to be re-emerging around that zone. If price can manage to close the day above the 1.0820’s this will further support the view of an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s as discussed in my previous reports. Short term EURUSD traders should remain on alert for session closing prices above the key 1.0820’s support area that may open the way for an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s; however, if we see a session close below 1.0820’s that will favor fresh weakness towards the 1.0750’s.

Now that the Greek bailout deal has been put to the side for the moment, the markets can get back to focusing on important fundamental market moving data. The PMI number should dominate the remainder of the week with the Eurozone PMI numbers out on Friday.

The U.S. Fed’s Bullard said “the probability of a September rate liftoff is above 50%”, he also said that Greek uncertainties appear to be behind us, and that China’s stock market volatility is not large enough to impact U.S. monetary policy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the USD, GBP and the JPY. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Consumption growth had been little changed for most trading partners in recent months, although it was perhaps a bit stronger in the United States and somewhat weaker in China.

• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing: The forecast for June is for -8.0B down from 9.4B



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:49 pm
Date : 22nd July 2015 (Second Analysis).

UPDATE: S&P 500 TURNED LOWER AS EXPECTED.




S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) turned lower soon after hitting my projection level at 2122 and is currently trading at 2102.75. This move lower was triggered by substantial overnight losses in Apple and Microsoft shares after IBM had lost ground significantly in the earlier trading session.

Apple posted record quarterly profit but was strongly sold off. Apple shares tanked nearly 9% in after-hours at one stage trade iPhone shipments missed forecasts and forecast revenues shy of the $51.1 bln targeted, wiping of some $50 bln in market cap. Apple shares cut those losses back to -6%. The absorption of Nokia also tarnished Microsoft’s results to the tune of a $7.5 bln write-off and 5.1% revenue decline for a $3.2 bln net loss, knocking its shares over 4% lower after-hours. Yahoo also missed and sank 2.2%.

I have been suggesting in the last two reports on ES that this market will rally the above resistance and will hit significant supply between 2111.25 and  2134. This has now taken place and for the benefit of those that have shorted the index in the resistance or will be selling the rallies we need to focus on the likely moves from here. In the July 16th report I said that the supply inside the resistance area should bring the ES down to 2073 – 2080 range and there is no need to deviate from this view.

Stochastics is rolling over from the overbought zone indicating further move down. This is likely as the next support can be found at 2078 level. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides with this area at 2080, therefore I expect market to find support in 2073 – 2080 range. There is some intraday resistance at 2009 to 2010 that might provide a short selling opportunity for those not engaged at the short side yet.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:51 pm
Date : 24th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, continues to bounce from the May lows near 1.0820. This corrective bounce has attempted, but so far failed, to print a new lower top from the previous 1.1216 high. Yesterday’s high of near 1.1018 was a good attempt at the 1.1030’s, my previous article forecasted lower top. Traders should expect for the market to range between the 1.1030’s and 1.0870’s, now that the previous resistance turned support 1.0970’s area has been deemed invalid, as price has tested the 1.0970’s area both from below and above. Relevant support levels are now observed at 1.0920, 1.0870 and 1.0820, while resistance levels are spotted at 1.1030, 1.1087 and 1.1216. Given that the EURUSD price action is still firmly within the downward slopping price channel, as well as the fact that bullish momentum is observed within the Stochastic Oscillator analysis, I continue to be on alert for sellers to emerge around the 1.1020’s-30’s for a re-test of the 1.0820’s; any breach of the 1.0820’s will open up the way towards the 1.0750’s.

Eurozone Jul PMIs disappointed today, with readings falling slightly from June. The manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.2 from 52.5 and the services to 53.8 from 54.4. However, data continues to show ongoing expansion across the Eurozone manufacturing sectors, which supports the ECB’s view that the recovery remains intact and is broadening if not accelerating.

As for next week’s U.S. Fed policy statement, it should support Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony where she said that the “FOMC is likely to begin liftoff this year, provided the economy continues to improve as forecast.” Traders should prepare for a relatively positive assessment of the U.S. economy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This afternoon the EUR is trading higher against the AUD. The AUD is weaker across the board against most pairs, while the JPY is stronger against the EUR.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR PMIs : French PMI readings were much weaker than expected, with the manufacturing PMI falling back below the 50 point no change mark to 49.6 from 50.7 in June. The services reading slumped to 52.0 from 54.1. German corrections were not quite as pronounced and the dips to 51.5 in the manufacturing PMI and 53.7 in the services reading from 51.9 and 53.8 point to a stabilisation, rather than a marked correction. Still, the weak French numbers, highlight that risks to the Eurozone recovery remain and that France continues to underperform.

• JPY Japan flash manufacturing PMI : rose to 51.4 in July compared to 50.1 in June as both domestic orders and output rose — the fastest clip in 5-months. New orders rose to 51.3 from 49.6, output gained to 52.3 from 50.9.

• U.S. New Home Sales : June data on new home sales is out today and should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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