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HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:27 pm
Date : 31st August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st August 2016.




FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, the Japanese Nikkei 225 close up 0.97% at 16,887, with banks and oil producers leading gains. The Hang Seng is little changed and the ASX down, but mainland Chinese markets are moving higher. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are little changed and FTSE 100 futures are heading south. Oil prices are little changed on the day after the front end WTI future fell below USD 47 per barrel Tuesday amid firm U.S. confidence data as Fed’s Fischer repeated that rate hikes will be data dependent and that the economy is close to full employment. The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.2% y/y, after weaker than expected German data yesterday. German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.0% from 10.1%.

The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. USDJPY rose for a fourth straight session, this time making a one-month high of 103.22. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the 50-day moving average at 102.69, which now reverts as support. Most yen crosses have followed, with EURJPY also making a one-month peak, and AUDJPY a two-week high. The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Increased odds for a September rate hike by the Fed, juxtaposed to the likelihood of further easing by the BoJ at its September 20th-21st policy meeting, have been underpinning USDJPY, which we expect to remain the case in the coming weeks, although Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a key determiner. EURUSD, meanwhile, has remained heavy in the mid 1.11s, though holding above yesterday’s three-week low at 1.1132. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain. At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July.

US Data Reports: The U.S. consumer confidence pop to an 11-month high of 101.1 reversed the July drop to 96.7 from 97.4 to leave the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015. Despite today’s consumer confidence upswing, the full array of confidence indicators continues to trend sideways in 2016. The Michigan sentiment index fell to 89.8 from 90.0, versus a 98.1 cycle-high last January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.4 in August from 45.5 in July but a similar 48.2 in June, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a 43.6 average thus far in August from a 43.4 average in both June and July, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of 2016 as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes. Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U.S. election campaigns.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer may be out on a hawkish limb on his own, speculates a Bloomberg article that is in line with the muted market reaction to his words overnight compared to the reaction in which he hijacked the Jackson Hole calm following Yellen’s speech Friday. Others such as Bullard and Lockhart have been more circumspect on the “hike or two” front this year, leading some analysts to wonder if Fischer is more of an outlier rather than a shadow Chairman. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. Of course, the August payrolls report could be the swing factor for or against a September hike, by Fischer’s own admission.The next round of Fedspeak will be from dovesRosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderateKashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. This could slow the USD rise ahead of ADP’s today and NFP data on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian GDP Real Q2 GDP, is expected to fall 1.8% after the 2.4% increase in Q1. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall. Also, real exports plunged 19.9%, suggestive of a big drag from net exports. Real GDP is expected to rebound 4.0% in Q3 as shuttered production comes back on-line and rebuilding commences in the region.

Eurozone HICP After yesterday’s weaker than expected German HICP number we have lowered our forecast for the overall Eurozone rate to 0.2% y/y, which would leave it unchanged from July. The Spanish HICP rate rose markedly, to -0.3% y/y from -0.7% y/y, but the Belgian headline rate also ticked lower and the French reading, due early today, is also seen unchanged. Inflation rates are only very gradually moving higher and remain firmly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:32 pm
Date : 1st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2016.




FX News Today
European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching$44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of$1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.



Main Macro Events Today 


  • US Manufacturing ISM August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.



  • US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:38 pm
Date : 6th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2016.




FX News Today

FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with the ASX a notable exception as the Aussie strengthened following Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, despite the fact that U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down -0.9% y/y, against expectations for another marked rise. German factory orders disappointed and previous month revised down (see below) – EURUSD overnight lows 1.1140 currently 1.1150. The Eurozone also has the detailed reading of Q2 GDP, and elsewhere Switzerland releases Q2 GDP and August inflation data.

FX Summary: The dollar and euro traded softer against most other currencies, with markets taking Friday’s payrolls report as lowering the odds for the Fed to hike rates at its FOMC meeting later this month, while data left prospects for unchanged policy with dovish guidance at the ECB’s meeting this week. USD-JPY declined by over 0.5% to the 103s and EUR-JPY fell by 0.7%. Cable popped higher on the back of a record month-to-month rebound in the UK’s August services PMI, but gains failed to sustain as such an outcome had been well flagged by the stellar rebounds already seen in last week’s construction and manufacturing PMI reports. USD-CAD extended Friday’s post-U.S. jobs losses, with the Canadian dollar rallying concomitantly with oil prices. News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had signed an agreement to set up a “working group” to think of ways to curtail crude market volatility boosted crude. (see below)

Oil Update: Oil prices sprang higher on news of a Saudi-Russia agreement, signed on the sidelines of the G20 meetings, to set up a “working group” to discuss ideas about how to minimise market volatility. WTI crude was up nearly 5% at the $46.50 intraday peak, overnight it traded to $44.75 before recovering to $45.30. A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Falih, said that that Iranian production has now reached pre-sanctions levels, suggesting that there is scope for Tehran to agree to a production freeze. The global supply glut remains and there will have to be some significant compromise in Algiers if the $50 is to be recovered.

German July manufacturing orders rose 0.2%: This was less than hoped and even with June revised marginally higher to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m, the annual rate remained stuck in negative territory. Still, the -0.7% y/y reading is a clear improvement from the -3.0% y/y in the previous month, although looking at the dip in the manufacturing PMI, and the sharp downward revision to the German services PMI growth projections going ahead will have to be revised again and the weaker orders data will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB. Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped -3.0%.



Main Macro Events Today 


  • US Non-Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 55.7 from 55.5. Last July’s spike to 59.6 set a new post-recession high. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed. The August Philly Fed index rose to 2.0 from -2.9, but the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 47.2 from 51.3.



  • NZD GDT Price Index – The fortnightly Global Dairy Trade Index is published and with a strong recovery last time to 12.7% sparking a rally in the NZD, today’s data will be followed closely.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:00 am
Date : 7th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2016.




FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President John Williams: Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%: A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.



Main Macro Events Today 


  • UK Inflation Report – 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defended by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.





  • BOC Rate Statement – 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:23 pm
Date : 12th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2016.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%. Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively dueMonday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:20 pm
Date : 19th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2016.




FX News Today

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.
United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also dueThursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report onFriday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.
Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.
Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.
UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.
China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.
Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:15 pm
Date : 20th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 September 2016.




FX News Today

FX News Today
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”. Looks like its neutral for longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.



Main Macro Events Today 


  • BOJ Outlook – The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.



  • FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:04 pm
Date : 21st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20st September 2016.




FX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,”where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,”including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX UpdateUSDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained.Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.



  • RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:33 pm
Date : 22nd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2016.




FX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.
RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”. Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.
FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.
European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • US Initial Jobless claims – Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.



  • Draghi and Carney speeches – Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:17 pm
Date : 23rd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2016.




FX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.



Main Macro Events Today 




  • Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.



  • Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:06 pm
Date : 27th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334. The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times. Fed governor Tarullowould like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.



Main Macro Events Today 


  • US Consumer Confidence – September consumer confidence is out later and should reveal a headline decline to 98.0 from 101.1 in August which is still above July’s 96.7. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at 89.8 from August and the IBD/TIPP Poll declined to 46.7 from 48.4 in August.





  • Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speech – Mr Fischer is due to give a speech in Washington with the whimsical title “Why Study Economics”. Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:53 pm
Date : 29th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2016.




FX News Today
European Outlook: Energy stocks pushed up Asian markets after OPEC agreed to cut oil production and limit daily output to 32.5-33 million barrels. The front end WTI future is currently trading above USD 47per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also celebrating the deal, which will see European stocks extending yesterday’s gains and is likely to weigh on bond futures. The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator. The U.K. has BoE mortgage approvals, consumer credit and money supply data.

Oil headlines from Algeria: Oil prices surged following the surprise OPEC agreement on production cuts. USOil rallied 5% to $47.46 and UK Oil was up to highs over $49.00. The production cut was between 240k and 740k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between 32.5 mln and 33 mln barrels per day. It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers. Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November.

ECB’s Draghi: ECB countered threat of new “great depression”.Defending the ECB’s policies to German parliamentarians Draghi said after a visit to the lower house that other policies must contribute much more decisively while the ECB must allow its measures to develop for full impact. The central bank president stressed that the ECB doesn’t see overheating in the Eurozone or German economies although he admitted that low rates for long may risk asset-overvaluation risk and that ECB policy is not the main factor in low bank profitability.

Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating. There’s no meaningful upward pressure on inflation, however, and she’s pleasantly surprised that the jobless rate has not fallen of late and there’s “no fixed time table for interest rate moves”. Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. She explained her dissent at the September 20, 21 FOMC, saying the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are sound, which has been “demonstrated by the resiliency it has shown through a numbers of bumps along the road of expansion.” Some of those bumps are, the gyrations in the financial markets at the start of the year, the slowing in China, economic weakness in Europe, the large appreciation in the dollar between mid 2014 and the start of 2016, and the uncertainties over Brexit. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. EarlierNeel Kashkari had stated just how much slack remains in the labor market is the critical question, while the economy should have continued moderate growth of about 2%, while global investors near-term see Treasuries as a safe haven. While the U.S. long-term needs to get its fiscal house in order, it’s not appropriate for the Fed to hold back in order to force the hand of fiscal authorities. Kashkari also found it “alarming” that issues at Wells Fargo could have been going on for years and no one was aware. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers. Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • US GDP – The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal an upward revision for the headline to 1.5% from 1.1% in the second release, 1.2% in the first release and 0.8% in Q1 of this year. Among the revisions there is likely to be upward revisions for construction of $8 bln, consumption up $4 bln, net exports up $4 bln and intellectual property up $2 bln. Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.2%.



  • Governor Yellen – Following her testimony in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation yesterday, the FED chair is in Kanas City speaking at the Minority Bankers Forum.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Sep 30, 2016 1:16 pm
Date : 30th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The rally on stock markets didn’t last long and while most European markets still managed to close with gains yesterday, Deutsche Bank (down 7% at one point yesterday) concerns dragged the DAX lower and are also overshadowing markets elsewhere. Wall Street closed with losses and in Asia, lenders were also under pressure, with Nikkei and Hang Seng down more than 1.4% and only mainland Chinese markets managing to carve out gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down as the pressure on Deutsche Bank is building with the sell off in shares of course only adding to the problem and creating a viscous circle. European markets have opened down 1%. Oil prices meanwhile are down on the day, but remain above USD 47 per barrel following the OPEC deal and Gold traded under USD 1316 before recovering to $1323. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected and improved to -1 to -7 in the previous month. In a speech by Mr. Kuroda to the Japanese parliament he explained that the BOJ are internally debating exit strategy from ultra-easy policy but speaking specifically about those means too hastily could cause confusion in markets. The calendar also has German retail sales at the start of the session, French consumer spending and the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as Eurozone unemployment. The focus, however, will likely be on Eurozone inflation data for September, which is expected to tick higher on base effects.

German retail sales dropped -0.4% m/m in August, while July was revised markedly down to 0.5% m/m from 1.7% m/m reported initially. The annual rate still jumped to 3.7% y/y after falling in July. The three months trend rate also improved. Consumer confidence remains at very high levels and the Ifo index also reported an rise in retail sentiment, but official retail sales, while highly volatile and subject to heavy revisions, only cover part of overall consumption, and the data have only limited bearing for overall consumption trends, which still look solid.

ECBspeak: Visco: QE could last beyond March 2017. The Italian central bank governor hinted that the QE program could be extended beyond the current timeframe to impact inflation and that the inflation may have to be temporarily overshot. At the same time he stressed that QE makes reforms easier not harder and that in Italy, high debt not EU rules are is weighing on budget policies. It is true of course that the ECB’s low interest rate policy is giving governments more room to manoeuvre and thus should make it easier to implement reforms, at the same time though, the low rates also gloss over existing problems and make it a less pressing need for governments to reduce deficits and debt, as the ECB’s program is keeping rates low and reduces market pressure on governments.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari saw no alarm bells that a recession is imminent and no urgency in raising rates with inflation low, but by the same token waiting too long on raising rates was less of a risk that hiking too soon. In any case, if inflation does rise, the Fed has all the tools it needs to bottle it up. He also said that the Fed is not out of ammunition if the economy is hit by recession and concurred that politics is not factoring in at all to Fed decisions. About par from moderate course from Kashkari.



Main Macro Events Today 




  • EMU September Inflation – EMU Sep HICP inflation expected to rise to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y in the previous month, with less negative base effects from energy prices the main driving factor behind the expected uptick. This was already reflected in German and Spanish numbers yesterday but while base effects are lifting the annual rate, readings still remain far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So while the risk of a deflationary spiral is becoming ever more remote, the data will do little to stop the ECB from continuing with its current expansionary policy stance.



  • Canada July GDP – Expected to grow 0.3% in July after the 0.6% surge in June that followed the 0.6% plunge in May. Mining, oil and gas production is on track to add to GDP growth, and this could provide an upside surprise. While energy exports values slipped 0.8% in July, prices contracted as the IPPI for energy and petroleum products fell 3.5% m/m. Meanwhile, the manufacturing report’s 2.5% gain in petro and coal production was due to higher volumes at several refineries. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is seen rebounding 3.2% in Q3 (q/q, saar) after the 1.6% drop in Q2.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:27 pm
Date : 3rd October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2016.




FX News Today

United States:
 The calendar highlighted by September nonfarm payrolls, (Friday) which are expected to increase by 170k, with a 160k private payroll gain. Forecast risk is seen as downward, however, as weaker claims and producer sentiment could weigh on the headline. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.9% since June. The workweek is expected to tick up to 34.4 from 34.3 last month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.6% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.2% for the month following a 0.1. Also on tap are several other releases worthy of consideration, including ISM manufacturing (Monday), which may bubble back over the 50 boom-bust line in September, having stumbled hard to 49.4 in August. Construction spending may rise 0.4% in August from unchanged in July. September vehicle sales are expected to grow 0.5% to a 17.0 mln pace, up from August, but down from the 17.8 mln 2016 peaks in January and July. The schedule resumes with MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) and the ADP employment survey forecast to post a 160k print for September vs 177k. The August trade balance may widen to -$43.4 bln vs -$39.5 bln and the ISM non-manufacturing index is set to rise to 53.5 in September vs 51.4. Factory goods orders dip 0.3% in August vs a 1.9% July gain. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 6k to 260k (Thursday) for the October 1 week. Along with employment, wholesale trade and consumer credit (Friday) will round out the week.

Fedspeak resumes with Lacker (hawk) on the economic outlook (Tuesday), followed by Evans(dove) on current economic events and policy. Kashkari (moderate) introduces a child development program (Thursday) followed by Lacker (again) meeting with students followed by a speech on Fed governance. Fed VC Fischer (Friday) speaks on the economy and regulation, while Mester (hawk) discusses “Fed Communications” . Fed Governor Brainard (dove) takes part in an IIF panel on “Blockchain Technology”.

Canada: The calendar picks-up this week, with several heavy hitters due out that will provide further indications of how the economy fared after oil sands production returned to normal in July. The August trade report (Wednesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in July. A 1.0% increase in exports is anticipated following the 3.4% surge in July. Employment (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k gain in September jobs following the 26.2k bounce in August. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0% in September. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is projected to reveal an improvement in the overall outlook, but with a still ample reserve of caution among resource sector firms and related businesses. Q2. Building permit values (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% m/m in August after the 0.8% gain in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) rounds out the week, with the index expected to improve to 55.0 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in August.

Europe: Data releases include the final reading of September PMIs with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI expected to be confirmed at 52.6. and the Services reading at 52.1, which should leave the composite at 52.6, unchanged from the preliminary number. The highlight though will be German manufacturing orders for August (Thursday) where we are looking for a rise of 0.5%, after the modest 0.2% m/m expansion in July. July Ifo numbers surprised on the upside and the manufacturing PMI also rebounded, so that the chances are orders picked up again in August. Industrial production (Friday) should show at least a partial rebound from the -1.5% m/m slump in July and rise 0.8% m/m (med 0.9%). The recovery is limping ahead and so far the labor market has remained on an improving trend and against that background consumption should remain underpinned, but even if Eurozone retail sales (Wednesday) are likely to have dropped -0.3% m/m, as a partial correction from the 1.1% m/m gain in July. ECBspeak comes from Draghi,Coeure and Nowotny among others, with Coeure and Draghi attending the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington at the end of the week.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the PMI reports for September, along with production data for August, which will increase the body of post-Brexit vote hard data. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to dip to 52.1 after surging to 53.3 in August. The construction PMI is seen nearly steady at 49.0, which would be a fractional decline from August’s 49.2. The services PMI is expected to ebb to 52.0 from 52.9. While the PMIs are thus seen lower, the overall picture would be of a better than most feared performance of the UK economy following the vote to leave the EU.

China: On holiday all week, but has September services PMI (Friday), along with September foreign direct investment, which is seen slowing to a 4.0% y/y versus the 5.7% reading in August.

Japan: September consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely fell to 41.0 from 42.0. September services PMI is due Wednesday, and 1st 20-day September trade data on tap Friday.

Australia: Te Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent participates in a panel in Melbourne (Wednesday). Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in August after the 11.3% gain in July. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.4% m/m in August following the flat reading in July. The trade deficit is projected to widen to -A$2.5 bln in August from -A$2.4 bln in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:02 am
Date : 9th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, as oil related stocks were under pressure. The front end Nymex future is slightly up on the day, but at USD 50.61 per barrel remains far below recent highs. Japan outperformed and the Nikkei closed with a 0.34% gain, as the Dollar strengthened amid positive signals ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data and the weaker yen underpinned exporters. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are down on the day, after the FTSE 100 already underperformed other European markets yesterday, but continues to hold the 7300 mark. The DAX meanwhile managed marginal gains yesterday, but is still holding below 12000, as markets hold their breath ahead of today’s ECB meeting, amid speculation that Draghi could tweak the forward guidance on rates and remove the implicit easing bias as growth and inflation data continues to rise. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance remained steady at 24. ECB meeting aside, the calendar still has final non-farm payroll numbers from France, as well as Swiss unemployment and the Bank of France business confidence indicator.

US reports: ADP private payrolls surged 298k in February after rising 261k in January (revised up from 246k). The service sector added 193k jobs, while the goods sector added 106k. As for the more detailed breakdown, strength in services was paced by professional business services, up 66k, with leisure and education up 40k. IT added 25k. For the goods sector, construction added a huge 66k, while manufacturing increased 32k. Mining was up 8k. This is a much better than expected report and adds upside risk to Friday’s BLS numbers. The data should also confirm a Fed rate hike next Wednesday. Furthermore, yesterday oil rallied to $53.80 from $53.45 following the EIA inventory data which showed an 8.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. Oil gains following the EIA report were short-lived, with the contract now on fresh one-month lows of $52.14. Prices initially moved higher on the inventory figures, with the smaller than API crude build and larger than forecast product draws giving oil bulls a leg up. It turned out however, that the gains were quickly sold into, on the realization that U.S. crude stocks posted yet another all-time high.

Canada: Canada housing starts improved to 210.2k in February from a revised 208.9k unit rate pace in January (was 207.4k). The pick-up in starts was contrary to expectations for a moderation in February. Single detached starts grew 12.1% to 71.9k units in February while multi urban starts fell 4.7% to 121.2k units. The six-month moving average for total starts picked-up to a 204.7k clip in February from 200.3k in January. The CMHC’s report notes that the uptrend in home construction this winter has been mostly due to increased home construction in Ontario, where single detached home construction is near the pace last seen in July of 2008. Canada building permit values rose 5.4% in January, better than expected, following a revised 4.4% drop in December (was -6.6%).

UK: The UK government announced its mid-year budget update, coordinated with the release of official economic projection updates from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The 2017 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.4%, but in the four-year outlook growth was revised lower. Inflation is seen peaking at 2.4% this year before ebbing slightly to an average rate of 2.3% in 2018, and then to 2.0% in 2019. Borrowing for this year is seen below that previously forecast, though is seen broadly unchanged over the next three years. Among the details are plans to increase spending on the health service and a reduction in the tax-free dividend.

Main Macro Events Today


  • ECB Rate Decision – ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged and confirm the QE schedule, which promises ongoing asset purchases through to the end of the year, but at a reduced monthly volume of EUR 60 bln from April. Given that much of this is also an insurance policy to prevent a renewed pick up in market volatility amid heightened political risks, Draghi is also likely to stress again that this doesn’t constitute real tapering and that the central bank has not yet set eyes on a phasing out of asset purchases. The focus will be on whether the central bank will take a more neutral stance on rates, however, and remove the reference to the possibility of another rate cut, as suggested by the hawks at the council in light of rising inflation and strong growth numbers.



  • US Unemployment Claims – Initial claims data for the week of March 4 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 235k from 223k last week and 242k in the week prior.



  • Canadian NHPI – New Housing Price index expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% for January.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:18 am
Date : 10th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly managed to move higher overnight, let by a nearly 1.5% gain in the Nikkei as the Yen weakened against the Dollar. U.S. futures are also up, as the focus shifts to today’s jobs data and next week’s Fed meeting. Yesterday was all about Draghi an, who managed to introduce subtle changes to signal a very gradual move towards a more neutral stance and not only helped stocks to move higher, but also to bring in Eurozone spreads amid a general rise in long term yields. Today’s calendar has already seen the German trade surplus shrink (see below) industrial production numbers from France and the U.K.. The U.K. also has trade data, but again the focus will be on the US calendar in the afternoon.

German Trade: The surplus narrows, as imports continue to rise. Exports managed to rebound from the slump in December and rose 2.7% m/m, but this was more than counterbalanced by a 3.0% m/m rise in nominal imports, which left the trade surplus at EUR 14.9 bln on a seasonally adjusted basis. The current account surplus dropped even more. The numbers highlight that much of last year’s improvement in trade data was impacted by price developments and the drop in oil prices, while real data actually showed a negative contribution to overall growth from the external sector.

US Data Yesterday revealed a firm set of initial claims and trade price data, though we did see a 20k bounce for claims to 243k after the prior 19k plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the President’s Day week. For trade prices, we saw big February gains after upward revisions that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge, with strength skewed toward exports as seen through most of 2016. Core export prices rose 0.5%, while core import prices rose 0.3%. The claims bounce still leaves a firm start for March, and we still expect a 225k February nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, firm consumer and small business confidence, and a robust 298k ADP rise. Vehicle sales were flat in February but we expect a bounce in output. For downside risk, we expect a 5k-10k monthly decline in government jobs due to the hiring freeze, versus the 16k average monthly gains through 2016, and we had an east coast storm in the BLS survey week.

ECB: Subtle changes at the central bank yesterday, with Draghi once again trying to keep both hawks and doves happy. The result was a shift in language, that was so subtle that it took Draghi to highlight it during the Q&A session, as QE schedule and easing bias on rates were left in place. This balancing act saw markets taking the hint, but leaving the ECB sufficient room to act and keep the insurance policy amid the multitude of political challenges hitting the Eurozone this year. On balance our central scenario for the ECB going ahead remains the same, with QE going ahead this year and rates remaining unchanged throughout the year. The ECB is maintaining its insurance policy as elections get underway and the Brexit talks start in earnest and it can afford to do so as base effects should see headline inflation rates starting to come off again later in the year.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • US Non-farm payrolls – The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for the Non-Farm Payroll to rise by 195,000, however, there is significant risk to the upside following Wednesdays big rise in the ADP report. Expectations are as high as 285,000 with a number of estimates being raised to 225,000. The Earnings figure needs to recoup the 0.3% level and the unemployment is expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.7%.



  • Canadian Employment – It is expected to rise 20k in February after the 48.3k surge in January. Canada posted employment gains from August to October of last year, saw a small decline in November and then revealed strong gains in December and January of this year. Unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.8%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:39 am
Date : 13th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2017.




FX News Today

The old notion of the “new normal” has been turned on its head in the months since Brexit and the Trump election. The slow growth, secular stagnation theme has been morphing into one of rising animal spirits and a reflation trade that could eventually manifest into a global cyclical upturn. And thus, the FOMC is readying its third-rate hike, while the ECB is subtlety shifting toward a neutral stance. Meanwhile, the rise of populism and the heightened political uncertainties will remain a major risk to the more optimistic outlook.

United States: In the U.S., the FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. This would be the third tightening of the cycle. And it appears that the FOMC is ready to begin the normalization process in earnest. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December, and we expect additional 25 bps moves in June and September. There is risk the central tendency forecast shifts to four hikes this year. Along with the FOMC, the data slate is heavy with several important reports. CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Wednesday) headline as they are key factors in the policy equation. February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January. The March Empire State (Wednesday) and Philly Fed manufacturing (Thursday) surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February. The Fed’s February industrial production release (Friday) is expected to show a 0.2% bounce thanks to the solid indications from the nonfarm payroll report. Housing reports are also due too, including the NAHB homebuilder survey for March (Wednesday). It’s dipped in January and February from 69 in December, the highest since 2005. February housing starts (Thursday) are seen bouncing to a 1.255 mln, while consumer sentiment (Friday) should rise further to 97.0 in March after edging up 0.6 points to 96.3 in February.

Canada: Canada’s docket of economic data and events is thin this week. The only top tier report is manufacturing (Friday). The ponderously named National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts is released Wednesday. The report contains the household debt ratio, which we suspect saw another record high in Q4. February existing home sales (Wednesday) and the February Teranet/National Bank home price index (Tuesday) are also due out.

Europe: Data releases this week mainly focus on final February inflation numbers, but also include the first confidence reading for March in the form of the German ZEW (Tuesday). The investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Against that, Eurozone industrial production numbers for January (Tuesday) will seem too backward looking to change the outlook. Final February inflation data, meanwhile, is not expected to hold major surprises and a confirmation of the French reading (Wednesday), the Spanish (Tuesday), the German HICP (Tuesday) and the Italian HICP (Wednesday), is expected, which is in line with consensus and would leave the overall Eurozone rate (Thursday) at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.

UK: The calendar features the March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes due Thursday), which is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote. Data releases this week are thin on the ground, highlighted by the monthly labour market report (Wednesday), which expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.

Japan: The BoJ announces its policy intentions on Thursday after its 2-day meeting. No policy changes are expected, keeping short term rate at -0.1%, and targeting a zero yield for 10-year bond. The bank is likely to maintain a wait and see stance to see how the modest recovery pans out. As for data, revised January industrial production is due Wednesday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in February after the 13.7k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7%, matching the 5.7% rate in January. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the Bloomberg Breakfast (Tuesday).

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q4 GDP (Thursday), expected to show a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% growth rate in Q3. The current account (Wednesday) is anticipated to narrow to NZ$2.5 bln in Q4 from NZ$4.9 bln in Q3. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. We expect RBNZ to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:01 pm
Date : 14th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved sideways, with investors continuing to hold back ahead of the Fed rate review tomorrow. The Nikkei closed with a -0.12% loss, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are also posting slight gains, while the ASX was up 0.03% at the close. U.S. stock futures are slightly down and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher as Sterling continues to slide. Against that background Gilts are likely to continue to underperform, but Bunds, which still managed to rescue some gains into the close yesterday, continued to decline in after hour trade and could be under pressure at the open. U.K. Prime Minister May managed to secure backing from lawmakers to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks with the EU and will reportedly do so in the last week of May. The data calendar today has final inflation data from Germany and Spain as well as Eurozone industrial production and most importantly German ZEW investor confidence for March.

ECB: Tackling weak productivity is key. The central bank head, Mario Draghi, is once again highlighting the limits of monetary policy and the need for structural reforms to boost growth saying in Frankfurt that addressing weak productivity in the Eurozone is key. Draghi said “while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology”. He also highlighted that “much of the debate today about the true level of the real equilibrium interest rate, for example, is a debate about the outlook for productivity growth”. Furthermore, from ECB’s members, yesterday, Weidmann rejected criticism of Germany over EUR level. The Bundesbank President in an e-mail answer said the USD strength reflects the outlook for the U.S. economy, adding that recent USD movements are within the range of normal fluctuations.

Germany: German Feb HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.2% y/y as expected, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous month and clearly above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2.0%. The breakdown confirmed that base effects from food and energy prices are mainly to blame. Food price inflation jumped to 4.4% y/y in February, from 3.2% y/y in January and just 0.5% y/y in September last year, after a late cold winter hit crops. Prices for heating oil surged 43.8% y/y in February, after falling through most of last year. Petrol price inflation hit 15.6% y/y. So the data back Draghi’s argument that the rise in the headline rate is mainly driven by temporary effects, while underlying inflation remains low, which means the central bank can still allow to take a relaxed stance for now, although officials will have to keep an eye on second round effects amid improving labour markets.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • US PPI – February PPI data expected to remain unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month with the core up 0.2%. This follows stronger January figures which had the headline up 0.6% with the core up 0.4% for the month.



  • German ZEW – Germany’s investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and now expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Optimists are clearly outnumbering pessimists despite the multitude of political challenges and the ECB has proved that its eventual exit from stimulus measures will happen very gradually and with market reactions always in mind.



  • EU Industrial Production – Eurozone industrial production numbers for January will seem too backward looking to change the outlook., since expected to rise to 1.2% m/m, after the -1.6% m/m decline in December.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:08 am
Date : 15th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with investors holding their breath ahead of today’s Fed policy review, which is expected to bring another rate hike. The ASX managed to close higher again after a weak start as strong iron ore prices underpinned a rally in Fortescue shares. U.S, and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, the latter despite a broad rise in Sterling. Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.51 per barrel. Today’s European calendar has U.K. labour market data, as well as final Feb inflation data from France and Italy. Germany sells EUR 1bln of 30 year Bunds and market will look to the Netherlands, where elections are held today amid an increasingly escalating spat with Turkey, that seems to have strengthened PM Rutte’s stance against anti-EU populist Wilders.

US reports: the PPI rose 0.3% in February with the core rate up 0.3% as well, following respective January gains of 0.6% and 0.4%. On an annual basis, PPI posted a 1.5% y/y rate versus 1.2% y/y before, while the core rate accelerated to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y. February goods prices were up 0.3% with food posting a 0.3% gain while energy was up 0.6%. Services prices rose 0.4%. The numbers are a little higher than forecast. Rising inflation is one of the main factors behind the Fed’s likely rate hike today. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.3% in March from 2.2% in February thanks to a hard comparison, while the y/y core price rise climbs to 1.8% from 1.5% in February. On the old SOP basis, we saw a 0.1% headline PPI rise after gains of 1.1% in January, 0.6% in December and 0.2% in November. Last Thursday’s trade price report revealed firm February prices beyond an oil import price drop that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge.

German ZEW & EU Industrial Production: German ZEW investor confidence rose to 12.8 from 10.4 in the previous month. A tad below Bloomberg consensus, but still a sign that the number of those optimistic about the economic outlook continues to rise, although uncertainty continues to keep a lid on investment sentiment in particular. Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9% m/m in January, after falling -1.2% m/m in the previous month. Numbers have been volatile, and the three months’ trend rate remains unchanged at 0.9%, unchanged from December, the data are still consistent with ongoing economic improvements ahead. European data releases included the slightly weaker than hoped improvement in ZEW investor confidence as well as a confirmation of German headline HICP at 2.2% y/y, with food and energy prices driving the rise above the Eurozone’s upper limit for price stability.

Main Macro Events Today


  • UK Unemployment Rate – Monthly labour market report expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.



  • US Retail Sales and CPI – February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January, while the core rate is projected rising 0.2% following the 0.3% gain previously. That should leave the annual headline rate rising at a 2.6% y/y pace versus 2.5% y/y. February retail sales are expected to fall 0.3% amid weakness in autos, nearly unwinding the 0.4% January gain. Excluding autos, sales should also fall 0/3%, partly due to declines in gas and food.



  • FOMC Statement & Rate Decision – The FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December.



  • Dutch Elections – The Netherlands kicks off this year’s round of elections today and all eyes will be on anti-EU, anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders and his PVV.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:35 am
Date : 16th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, led by the Hang Seng which surged 1.56%. The Nikkei closed with a 0.7% gain as the Yen strengthened and the ASX was 0.20% better off at the close. Oil prices continued to rise and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 49 per barrel. Markets were relieved that the Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike, but didn’t signal faster tightening ahead and stuck with the projected 2 additional moves this year. The decision was followed by China’s central bank, which lifted charges on open market operations and the medium-term lending facility. The bank suggested that the move was largely driven by market expectations. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher and in Europe, news that in the Netherlands PM Rutte beat anti-EU populist Wilders by a surprisingly large margin will help to dampen EU and EMU break up fears as the focus turns to the French election and Brexit talks. Today’s calendar has central bank decisions from the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank, with all banks expected to keep policy on hold. The Eurozone also has the final CPI reading for February.

FOMC: The FOMC hiked its target corridor by another quarter point, after a hiatus in February, for the third move of the cycle and the first of potentially three hikes forecast for 2017. Yellen and company had ensured that the move was nearly fully discounted in advance, and the positive market reaction suggested that they succeeded. The Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as some had feared, but there were some subtle changes that merit closer inspection.The Fed has noted a more optimistic shift in sentiment in recent months, which is “obvious and notable.” But most businesses are still displaying a wait and see posture currently. Regarding a question on why raise rates now, given the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast was trimmed to a low 0.9%, Yellen noted policy is still accommodative and there are other signs the Fed is monitoring that are showing improvement. Yellen’s press conference has ended without any new insights or revelations. She outlined the Fed’s motives behind the actions, saying the tightening was appropriate given the improvement in the economy and as they are close to meeting their policy objectives. She again noted, as she has done in recent prior comments, that the Fed has yet to officially plug in projections on fiscal policy. There was no indication of any urgency behind further rate hikes.

Netherland: Anti-EU Populists take a hit. The latest polls ahead of the election already indicated that Rutte’s clear stance against Turkey’s attempt to bring the campaign for Erdogan’s constitutional referendum to the Netherlands helped the PM to overtake anti-EU populist Wilders, but the preliminary results of the Dutch election show Rutte winning with a surprisingly large margin. Nexit is off the table and the anti-EU camp has taken a hit, as the Dutch election also showed that while many are tempted to cast a protest vote and shake up the establishment, they do not want radical change and a breakup of the EU. So rather than acting as a positive example, the Brexit referendum seems to have acted as a warning. Rutte now will have to find coalition partners and the Netherlands could again face a lengthy period of political uncertainty as talks progress, but with Wilders beaten, this is unlikely to have wider market implications.

Japan: Earlier today during BoJ’s Policy Rate’s released and BoJ’s Press Conference, BoJ’s Kuroda said the bank will continue “powerful monetary easing” under yield curve control framework “to achieve the price target at the earliest date possible.” He noted that inflation has been moving sideways while saying that “momentum for inflation to accelerate to 2 percent remains in place but lacks strength.” Regarding the Fed’s rate tightening path Kuroda said “I don’t think U.S. interest rate developments will immediately have a severe impact on emerging economies,”adding that “we need to watch developments carefully.” He also touched on the trade protectionist issue, arguing that “not only the G20 but the IMF and OECD have also said that trade protectionism damages global growth,” emphasizing that “Japan’s stance on this will not change.”

Main Macro Events Today


  • BOE Statement & Rate Decision – The March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes), is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote.



  • EU Final CPI & core CPI – Eurozone will have the final CPI reading for February, which expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.



  • US Philly Fed survey & Housing Starts – Philly Fed manufacturing surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February at 30.2 from 43.3 last time. February housing starts are seen bouncing to a 1.26 mln pace after slipping 2.6% to 1.246 mln in January.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:52 am
Date : 17th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with the ASX managing to close with a 0.24% gain, while the Nikkei was down -0.35% at the close. The Hang Seng moved sideways after yesterday’s rally and the CSI 3000 is heading south. U.K. and U.S. futures are also in negative territory and it seems European markets could correct some of yesterday’s relief rally, which could help to put a floor under bond markets. Bunds underperformed yesterday and extended losses in after hour trade, hit by comments from Nowotny who suggested that the deposit rate could rise before the repo rate when the ECB eventually starts it exit from the loose policy. The comments were clearly not intended to signal any immediate policy change, but markets immediately started to price in rate hikes, indicating how sensitive investors are to any comments on rates. Today’s calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade and construction data, leaving markets plenty of time to digest this week’s central bank decisions and upcoming policy risks, with the U.K. set to trigger Article 50 and official Brexit talks next week.

President Trump released his “skinny budget” for 2018: which it’s more a general blueprint and is hence, short on details. The 53 page document is about 1/3 that of President Obama’s, due in part to the fact he included only discretionary items. As expected, defense spending was boosted by $54 bln, but the overall impact will be neutralized by reductions in a number of agencies, including cuts of 31% from the EPA and a 29% from the State Department. Ag and Labor Departments were also trimmed by 21%.

U.S. reports: revealed remarkably strong Philly Fed component data and another super-tight initial claims reading. U.S. March Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.5 points to 32.8 after surging 19.7 points higher to 43.3 in February (which was the strongest print since January 1984). But, key components were all higher. U.S. housing starts rebounded 3.0% to 1.288 mln in February after tumbling 1.9% to 1.251 mln in January. The 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 241k in the second week of March trimmed the 20k bounce to 243k, from the 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day. That brought the 4-week average up to 237.25k from 236.5k. Continuing claims dropped 30k to 2,030k in the March 4 week after slipping 4k to 2,060k previously. Ongoing tightness in claims, combined with today’s robust Philly Fed headline and component data, signals upside risk to the March jobs report. Claims remain well below the 263k average in 2016 and the 6-month high of 275k as recently as mid-December.

UK: BoE left the repo rate at 0.25% and QE unchanged, as widely expected, though one of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kirsten Forbes, dissented in favour of a 25bp rate hike. The minutes retained the view that “some modest withdrawal of monetary stimulus” over the next three years still applied, but stressed that, despite slowing wage growth and consumer spending, that “some members noted that it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects of activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted.” The MPC still retained its overall neutral stance, noting that additional policy support could yet be warranted if growth lagged behind projections made in the BoE’s February Inflation Report. Sterling rallied on the unexpected vote split and hawkish twist in the minutes.

Main Macro Events Today


  • G20 Meetings – G20 meetings will be held today and tomorrow in Germany.



  • Prelim UoM Consumer – The first release on Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March is out today and should post a slight headline increase to 97.1 after February’s dip to 96.3 from 98.5 in January. The various measures of consumer confidence have been hitting a string of new post-recession highs since the election but have begun to plateau.



  • US Industrial Production – February industrial production data is expected to post 0.3% increase following the 0.3% drop in January and the 0.6% increase in December.



  • Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Manufacturing Sales expected to reveal a 0.4% m/m loss in January after the 2.3% bounce in December.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:48 am
Date : 20th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2017.




FX News Today

Some cracks appeared in the global divergence trade following repeated reports that the ECB is clandestinely mulling the possibility of hiking the deposit rate before ending QE. In contrast, the first Fed hike of 2017 was well discounted in advance and accompanied by the “gradualist” mantra and one dovish dissent. A hawkish dissenter from steady BoE policy emerged as well, riling up the bond markets. Into this mix, the G20 over the weekend attempted to spackle over yawning differences on global trade and protectionism; omitting references to open, free or rules-based trade, rejection of protectionism and climate change financing in its communique’.

United States: In the U.S., economic calendar starts slowly and then peters out from there, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index out (Monday), followed by the current account (Tuesday), whose gap is seen widening to -$131.4 bln in Q4 from -$113.0 bln. MBA mortgage market data picked up last week into the teeth of higher rates (Wednesday). FHFA home prices and February existing home sales are on tap as well, seen easing back 0.7% from a solid 3.3% January gain. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 247k (Thursday) for the March 18 week. The week winds down with durable goods orders estimated to rise 1.4% in February vs 2.0% in January.

Canada: In Canada, the February CPI and Federal budget compete for top billing this week. The CPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. Wholesale sales (Monday) are seen rising 0.5% in January after the 0.7% gain in December. The Federal budget is scheduled for Wednesday. The government has pitched this budget as more of a preliminary plan than is usually the case, given uncertainty over the Trump trade agenda. Hence, the fall fiscal update could see lager than usual changes as the projected impact of the known U.S. trade policy can be included. According to media reports, Budget 2017 will provide details on the billions in spending outlined in the 2016 budget, as opposed to introducing new spending initiatives. The Fall update projected a C$25.1 bln deficit in FY2016/17, deepening to C$27.8 bln in FY2017/18. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade (Tuesday).

Europe: The focus is to the data calendar, which this week includes the preliminary round of March PMI readings. Brexit talks are also back in focus, although reports suggest that U.K. PM May will wait until the last week of March before officially triggering Article 50 that starts divorce proceedings. EU leaders are set to meet for a regular summit on March 25. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet Monday, with Greece a perpetual topic and ECBspeak from Weidmann, Lautenschlaeger and Nouy is likely to confirm that while the official easing bias remains in place. Tthe official ECB bulletin (Thursday) will confirm the official line that rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and well past the QE schedule.The calendar also has Eurozone current account and BoP numbers as well as German PPI inflation, with the latter expected to confirm that base effects from energy prices feed through the product chain. Supply includes a German 10-year Bund offering on Wednesday.

UK: Sterling has been volatile over the last several weeks, and more of the same seems likely as the UK heads into the business end of the Brexit process, with the government expected to invoke Article 50 by the end of the month. PM May has signaled that she is prepared to call “no deal” if the leaving terms are unsatisfactory and new trading terms can’t be agreed upon within the two year negotiation period, which in the event would mean the UK adopting WTO trading rules and taking a likely hit on its terms-of-trade position as a consequence. The UK data calendar brings February inflation (Tuesday) and February official retail sales data (Thursday), along with the March CBI surveys on industrial trends (Tuesday) and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Japan will take Monday off for the Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Trade data are always interesting for the island nation and the February report (Wednesday) is expected to flip to a JPY 700.0 bln surplus, versus the JPY 1,087.6 bln deficit in January, thanks in part to the slightly weaker yen. The January all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at -0.2% m/m from -0.3% previously. BoJ minutes to the January 30-31 policy meeting are also on tap (Wednesday).

Australia: Australia’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the March meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left policy unchanged, as expected, but the door remains open for an easing later this year as inflation remains below target. Economic data is in short supply, with the Q4 house price index due Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday). The February trade (Friday) balance is expected to shift to a NZ$200 mln surplus in February from the -NZ$285 mln deficit in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:11 am
Date : 21st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI continuing to outperform as China earnings optimism fuels Chinese stocks in Hong Kong. Japan closed in negative territory after yesterday’s holiday. U.S. stock futures are moving higher, while the FTSE 100 future is slightly in negative territory. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism continue to linger after the frosty G20 meeting. Bundesbank President Weidmann tried to play down the rift, saying that the view was shared that open markets and a free market-based economy are key for prosperity, but added that the meeting showed that “there are still some discussions ahead” regarding the role of trade. Oil prices are up on the day. The European calendar hots up today, with U.K. inflation data for February, as well as public finance data and the CBI Industrial Trends survey for March.

Fedspeak: Both Fed’s Evans and Harker mulled the possibility of 3 hikes in 2017, while Kashkari defended his dovish dissent, warning that nothing had really changed economically and inflation remained below target. Philly Fed’s Harker said in a CNBC interview that raising rates last week was prudent. Harker is a voter this year and is on the hawkish end of the hawk-dove spectrum. While he’s in line with the 3 rate hikes this year, he said there’s no real urgency right now. He noted the Fed is getting closer to its 2% inflation goal and prices are moving in the right direction. He expects there could be some overshoot of the target, but didn’t want to get behind the curve. On the other hand, Fed’s Kashkari said inflation is stuck at 1.7% as measured by core PCE y/y and the jobless rate has steadied near 4.7% as the labor force participation rate goes up. He’s defending his dovish dissent last week and said that nothing has really changed over the past several years, which justifies letting the economy run. Lastly Chicago Fed’s Evans said the economy is on a pretty good course. He said this is a challenging period of time, noting the potential for a big stimulus boost to growth. He suggested that would pose a risk to the FOMC given the economy is close to full capacity. He also said the lower pace of capital expansion could reflect lower trend growth.

President Trump: As Reuters reported: “President Donald Trump said last night that he wants to add a provision to the Republican healthcare plan that would lower prescription drug costs through a “competitive bidding process.” “We’re going to have a great competitive bidding process. Medicine prices will be coming way down. We’re trying to add it to this bill and if we can’t, we’ll have it right after,” he said, referring to Republican legislation to replace Obamacare that is due to be voted on in the House of Representatives as early as Thursday. However, the appearance of both the NSA and FBI Directors on Capital Hill snatched most of the media focus, after Comey confirmed FBI is investigating Russian interference in the election and any Trump Campaign complicity, while denying any veracity of wiretapping claims and mulling press leaks.

Main Macro Events Today


  • UK Inflation Data – CPI expected to lift to a new cycle high of 2.1% y/y from 1.8% y/y in February, which would be the first-time inflation has been either at or above the BoE’s mandated 2.0% target since December 2013. February Core CPI is expected to come in relatively more benign, at 1.7% y/y.



  • BoE Gov. Carney – BOE Governor Mark Carney is going to give a speech at 10:35 GMT in London.



  • Canadian Retail Sales – January is typically a solid month for retail sales, and expected to fit the usual pattern with a 1.5% gain in total sales and a 1.3% rise in the ex-autos aggregate.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:38 am
Date : 22nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. The Trumpflation already started to stall in the U.S. yesterday and uncertainty about U.S. policies going ahead have seen U.S. markets heading south, which also pulled down European markets and now Asia, where the Japan saw the biggest slump in stocks since the U.S. presidential election. The Nikkei closed with a 2.13% loss and the break of key technical levels has raised fears of further swings ahead. The ASX was down 1.56% at the close, the Hang Seng is currently down -1.4%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also firmly in negative territory, so there is no end to the sell off in sight so far. Against that background, Bunds, which already started to climb higher in after hour trade yesterday, are likely to gain further. The European calendar today is pretty empty, with only Eurozone current account and BoP numbers, and is unlikely to have much of an impact.

Fedspeak: KC Fed hawk George said the Fed is moving into a“critical time”. She’s worried the very low interest rates can lead to imbalances. She somewhat squashed worries over the balance sheet normalization sooner rather than later, noting that reducing it probably won’t happen quickly. Shrinking the Fed’s portfolio is going to entail a lot of discussion and analysis. Yields are at the lows yesterday after she didn’t take an overly hawkish stance, nor try to dissuade the Treasury market from its more bullish leaning after the FOMC didn’t meet fears of a more aggressive rate hike posture with last Wednesday’s results. Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari was Tweeting freely in an #AskNeel session on Twitter. He said: “Need to factor in lower neutral real rates. Economy not growing nearly as fast as anyone would like. But higher rates won’t help” in response to a question about Yellen saying the economy is doing well. At the Bank of England NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on bank ethics. He said that there still was a “long way to go” on reforming bank culture in wake of the financial crisis and again called for revamped bank performance incentives after the Wells Fargo scandal. He didn’t discuss monetary policy.

Canada: Canada retail sales surged 2.2% in January after the revised 0.4% drop in December (was -0.5%). The ex-autos sales aggregate grew 1.7% in January following a revised 0.5% decline (was -0.3%). Growth in the total and ex-autos sales aggregate exceeded expectations. Higher prices played a large role in boosting total and ex-autos sales values, as expected. Retail sales volumes grew a less pronounced, but still robust, 1.3% in January after the 1.0% decline in December. Yields extended gains on the robust retail sales report, which continued the recent run of firm data from Canada. Additionallyyesterday Deputy Governor Schembri spoke to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, with remarks published on the BoC’s website. He stated that: “it is still too early to assume the worst is behind us” in terms of economic growth. He acknowledged that Q4 GDP overshot the Bank ‘s projections, but said “…a more detailed analysis suggests scope for cautious.” Overall, Schembri’s prepared remarks have keep the Bank’s dovish tone well intact, despite recent upbeat data.

Main Macro Events Today


  • US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected to rise to 1.9M from -0.2M last week.



  • NZD Rate Statement – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is late today. RBNZ expected to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%. The RBNZ held steady in February, after the expected easings in November and August.



  • US Existing Home Sales – February existing home sales should reveal to 5.580 mln after a 3.3% increase to 5.690 mln in January which marked a new recent high.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:36 am
Date : 23rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilise yesterday and this continued in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei managing a 0.23% gain at the close, while the ASX was up 0.41%. Gains are modest so far compared to the rout of recent days andinvestors remain cautious on Trump’s policies. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, which should see bond futures correcting some of yesterday’s gains. FTSE 100 underperformed and Gilts outperformed yesterday after news of the London attack and seems to be bouncing back again. The calendar fills up today with French business confidence numbers, as well as German and Eurozone consumer confidence and U.K. retail sales data alongside the CBI distributive trade survey.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” But a dovish bias remain in place, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly. No change in rates is expected through to year end. USDNZD trades at 0.7050 from an overnight low of 0.7024.

US Data: The 3.7% U.S. existing home sales drop to a surprisingly weak 5.48 mln February clip trimmed the January pop to an unrevised 5.69 mln cycle-high from rates of 5.51 mln in December and a prior cycle-high 5.60 mln in November, as mild weather failed to visibly lift February sales. A 0.5% median price rise to $228,400 trimmed the seasonal downtrend from the $247,600 all-time high last June, while inventories rose 4.2% to a still-lean 1.75 mln. We assume a 3% sales rise in Q1 after a solid 13% rate in Q4 but a 7% contraction rate in Q3. Sales have adhered to an erratic uptrend since 2010. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% growth clip in 2017, following a 3.9% rise in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015. We have cyclical increases of 59% for existing home sales and 39% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 106% for new home sales, 169% for housing starts, and 136% for permits.

EU must prepare for U.K. walking out of Brexit talks without a deal. Bloomberg reported that EU officials are calling on the bloc to prepare for the possibility of Brexit without a deal, citing a private memo and people familiar with the discussions. The official EU negotiator Barnier reportedly told a meeting of EU Commissioners that some Conservative politicians in the U.K. are already trying to undermine efforts to find common ground. May is set to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks on March 29 and a key stumbling block are likely to prove the final bill to cover the U.K. outstanding U.K. liabilities, as EU officials insist the U.K. “must settle the accounts” when it leaves, stressing that it won’t be asked “to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member”. Barnier stressed that that a failure to come to an agreement would have “serious consequences”, not just for citizens living in the EU, but also supply problems for companies, air-traffic disruption, tougher custom controls and no more circulating of nuclear material. U.K. officials meanwhile question the legality of the bill and May has repeatedly said that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”.

Main Macro Events Today 


  • FOMC Chair Yellen Speech – It’s unlikely she’ll try to alter the tone from last week’s FOMC result, where the Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as the markets had expected. If she addresses policy, she will probably reiterate the gradual nature of the trajectory. Also on tap are the dovish dissenter Kashkari, who will discuss education and late in the day, the more hawkish voter Kaplan will speak on the economic outlook.



  • US New Home Sales – February new home sales data is out later and should reveal a 2.7% increase for the headline to a 570k (median 565k) pace following a 3.7% increase to a 555k pace in January. The NAHB composite for February declined to 65 from 67 and the MBA purchase index is down 4.6% for the month.



  • UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a rise to 0.45 from a poor -0.35 in February and a rather dismal -2.1% report for January. The consumer has been keeping the UK economy ticking along despite of Brexit concerns – figure watched with keen interest for impacts on sterling.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:34 am
Date : 24th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Key Asian stock markets moved higher despite the delay of Trump’s health care bill was delayed, which will now face an uncertain vote today. With the Dollar advancing and the Yen falling back the Nikkei managed a 0.9% gain, and the ASX closed up 0.8%, but the Hang Seng is in negative territory, The Shanghai composite is little changed and Taiwan’s index was down together with the Kopsi while Southeast Asian benchmarks were mixed. U.S. markets closed in the red yesterday, while European markets managed a late rally, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher as investors await the final vote. In Europe, the calendar has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for March, the U.K. has BBA mortgage approvals and EU leaders (minus U.K. PM May) will gather for a summit to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.

House delayed yesterday’s planned vote the healthcare bill,possibly until next week, according to news reports. Leadership has told members to be available today, however, in case a vote can be slated. Wall Street closed with modest losses, having unwound early gains as the prospects for the bills passage today dimmed through the day. The stock market is likely to remain in wait and see mode today, rather than stage a major selloff, given the possibility for a vote over the weekend or next week. Ways and Means Chairman Brady said (in CNBC interview) no one has walked away yet.

U.S. reports revealed solid February new home sales despite weakness in Wednesday’s existing home sales report, alongside a 15k pop in initial claims to an elevated 258k in the BLS survey week after annual revisions that mostly lifted levels of claims since November, leaving a net negative signal for the day’s data overall. For new home sales, a 592k rate beat estimates, though mild weather failed to lift sales above the 622k cycle-high rate in July of 2016.

UK February retail sales smashed expectations, rising 1.7% m/m and by 3.7%, up on the respective median forecasts for 0.4% and 2.6% growth. A rebound had been expected following two consecutive months of sub-par sales, though the magnitude was even greater than foreseen. January data were revised lower, however, to -0.5% m/m from -0.3% m/m initially reported, and to 1.0% y/y growth from 1.5% y/y. The ONS stats office advices caution, highlighting that the underlying three-month view shows sale in decline as a consequence of the weakness in December and January. After the strong retail sales report, out of the UK, cable has lifted back above 1.2500, with the pound finding support on dips. Additionally, BoE MPC’s Broadbent that UK exporters are benefiting from a temporary sweet spot, with the pound weaker following the Brexit vote but with trading terms remaining unchanged and with global growth picking up.

Main Macro Events Today


  • Eurozone PMI – Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI are out today and expected both to show a slight difference from February at 55.3 from 55.4 and 55.5 respectively.



  • UK Durable Goods – February durable goods expected to see orders up 1.1% compared to respective January figures which had orders up 2.0%.



  • Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. On an annual comparable basis, CPI is stay unchanged to a 2.1%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:14 pm
Date : 27th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2017.




FX News Today

Brexit comes into view now that the drama over the ACA was ended on Friday when the bill was canceled to avoid a “no” vote, as neither Trump nor Ryan could muster sufficient support. Triggering Article 50 on Brexit shouldn’t have any immediate consequences as this just kicks off the negotiation process. Meanwhile, investors will remain focused on the U.S. political process and investors will have to assess the possible damage from the ACA defeat, and whether it endangers the rest of the Trump agenda, or instead if it will allow the president to turn his full attention to tax reform, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus, policies that are more important to the markets.

United States: U.S. markets this week will try to assess the consequences of the ACA defeat and what it means for the future of the Trump agenda. Wall Street did manage to pare losses into Friday’s close after the ACA bill was pulled, rather than be put up to a certain “no” vote, as President Trump indicated he’d move on to tax reform, deregulation, and stimulusAs for data, housing and manufacturing reports dominate, but income, consumption and confidence numbers should be more market moving. The March Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index opens the week’s calendar (Monday). March consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February. The index has been on the rise since November. Also on tap Tuesday are the January Case-Shiller home price report and the Richmond Fed index. February pending home sales are dueWednesday. The third report on Q4 GDP (Thursday) should show a downward revision to a 1.8% pace from the 1.9% prior rate. February personal income (Friday) should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI is also due (Friday.

Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks on “Canada’s economic history,” which will be followed by a press conference. January GDP (Friday) is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December, as Canada’s economy maintains momentum. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m in February on the heels of the 0.4% bounce in January. The CFIB’s Business Barometer (Thursday) will provide a reading on the sentiment of small and medium sized firms in March.

Europe: Not much will be happening this week. The U.K. will officially notify EU officials, who in turn will acknowledge the request, before tasking negotiators with drafting guidelines, which then will have to be agreed upon by the remaining EU members before talks can officially start. With Easter coming up and the French election also on the agenda, and after already waiting 9 months, EU officials don’t seem inclined to rush anything now. The first Brexit summit is reportedly scheduled for a month after the U.K officially triggers Article 50, but the key phase could well only start in October, when the German election is also out of the way.This week’s pretty full calendar focuses on March confidence reading as well as preliminary March inflation data. After the surprisingly strong PMI readings and the improvement in preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence, an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate index today is expected to 111.2 from 111.0 in the previous month. PMI readings suggest that the recovery is in the Eurozone is not just strengthening but broadening, hence ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) expected to rise to 108.2 from 108.0 in the previous month. We will see German HICP inflation on Thursday. This expected to leave overall Eurozone HICP (Friday) at 1.8% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in February. The calendar also has February retail sales data and import price inflation from Germany as well as French consumer spending and PPI data.

UK: This will be the week that the UK government will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to formerly begin the provisional two-year negotiation period to agree on divorcing terms with the EU. The day will be Wednesday, March 29th.Things won’t happen quickly given the bureaucracy of the 27-member EU (excluding the UK), and, illustrating this, President of the EU Council, Tusk, said last week that members will hold a Brexit summit on April 29 (which is a week after the first round of the French presidential election). The calendar this week features the third estimate on Q4 GDP (Friday), expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth. March data on consumer confidence (also Friday) and February lending figures from the BoE (Wednesday) are also due.

Japan: In Japan, the heavy data week will be important for the outlook as the fiscal year gets closer. Inflation, sales, and production numbers will be key. February services PPI (Monday) is expected to cool to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in January and December. February retail sales (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.5% after a 1.1% drop for larger retailers. That would be a 7th straight monthly decline. But, overall sales are projected rising 1.3% following the prior 1.0% gain. The remainder of releases are due Friday, starting with CPI. February housing starts and construction orders round out the calendar.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is sparse this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Debelle speaks at the FX Week Australia conference (Thursday). Private sector credit for February is due Friday.

New Zealand: February building permits are a lone highlight, dueFriday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on May 11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:25 pm
Date : 28th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilize yesterday and Asian markets bounced back with materials and financial companies leading the way. The ASX 200 is up 1.30% and the Nikkei nearly 1.0%, while the Hang Seng gained 0.51% as investors see positives in Trump’s healthcare bill failure and speculate that he might also not be able to pass measures that are restrictive to global trade. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher and Praet’s push back against musings on exit strategies and the role of the deposit rate, which effectively affirms the guidance on rates and the implicit easing bias, should help Eurozone markets. Against that background, Bund futures already started to fall into yesterday’s close and in after hour trade and are likely to shed some of Monday’s gains, while Praet’s comments should underpin peripherals. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet, with only Italian industrial sales and orders.

US: Yields were mixed on Monday in the aftermath of the ACA repeal shortfall sell-off on Wall Street, which righted itself after opening sharply lower with global stocks. Financials and infrastructure plays took an early hit in contrast to bond demand, but risk-off trades then found some equilibrium, leaving yields above lows. The Dallas Fed business activity index pulled back in March.

Fedspeak: Chicago Fed dove Evans: inflation looks well on the way to reaching its 2% objective, said the dovish voter from Madrid. He still worries that long-term inflation expectations, however, are running below that objective and that uncertainties remain high in the U.S. In fact, he warns that trend growth in the U.S. is going to remain lower than most would prefer and doesn’t expect core CPI to reach 2% until 2019. Overall this is about par for the course from the uber dove, who will no doubt still go along with a couple more hikes in 2017.

ECB’s Praet pushes back against deposit rate musings. In what sounds like a warning to other council members, including Nowotny who has speculated about the need to raise the deposit rate ahead of the end of asset purchases Praet said “any communication on the deposit facility rate is a signal on the monetary policy stance, and there should be no ambiguity on this”. He added that “you have to be very careful on the guidance that we have because all the signals that you may give on the short-term rates, will influence the whole risk free yield curve”. This might consider as a signal that the official guidance that rates are seen at current or lower levels well past the end of asset purchases remains in place.

BoE revs up stress tests ahead of Brexit. The Bank will subject the country’s biggest lenders to a stress test that assumes a deep economic slump and a sharp depreciation of the Pound as the bank prepares for the impact of the U.K.’s exit from the EU. The tests don’t name Brexit risks in particular in its 2017 health check scenarios, but it is clear that the uncertain impact of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the union is one of the factors the BoE will have in mind, as it warns that risks to financial stability will be influenced by the “orderliness” of that process.

Main Macro Events Today


  • US Consumer Confidence – March consumer confidence is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February, and well above the prior high of 103.8 in January 2015.



  • Fedspeak – Fed Chair Yellen taking the spotlight today since she’ll be addressing the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference and will speak on workforce development challenges in low income communities. The non-voting hawk George will give a keynote address on banking and the economy. Kaplan will hold a Q&A session. Governor Powell speaks on the history and structure of the Fed.



  • BoC – BoC Governor Poloz speaks today on “Canada’s economic history.” His speech will be followed by a press conference.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:17 pm
Date : 29th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The rebound on global equity markets continued in Asia overnight, as a bounce in consumer confidence underpinned confidence in the U.S. economy and officials sounded more upbeat on tax reforms. Australia’s ASX led the way, while Japan trailed behind with a marginal gain, as the strong Yen undermines exporters and as more than 1.500 companies in the Topix traded without the right to their latest dividend. Oil prices extended their gain above USD 48 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher as global equity markets are heading for their fifth straight month of gains. The European calendar as German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as Italian confidence data and U.K. lending data. May’s official Brexit announcement will be topping the headlines, however, as European officials increasingly fret about the risk of a hard Brexit.

U.S. reports revealed encouraging advance trade deficit figures for February with mixed inventory data that lifted our Q1 GDP estimate to 1.6% from 1.5%, following an assumed trimming of Q4 growth to 1.8% from 1.9%. The U.S. “soft” data continue to soar past the “hard” figures however, given a remarkable March surge in consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 from a 116.1 (was 114.8) prior high in February, alongside a Richmond Fed pop to a 7-year high of 22.0 in March with an ISM-adjusted rise to a 7-year high of 59.2 that included gains in every component but vender lead-time. The advance data showed a narrowing in the February trade gap for goods to $64.8 bln that implies a February drop in the goods and services trade deficit to $45.0 bln from a 5-year high of $48.5 bln in January. For inventories, we saw 0.4% February gains for both wholesalers and retailers.

Fedspeak: First speaker yesterday was Fed’s Chair Yellen, who did not comment on monetary policy or the economy in her prepared comments on “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.” She did note that while the U.S. job market overall has “improved markedly,” there remain pockets of “persistently high” unemployment rates. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan on the other hand said yesterday that Fed should be taking steps to raise rates patiently and gradually, following comments overnight in which he discussed winding down the balance sheet, no systemic risk, and meeting the dual mandate. He doesn’t want to raise rates so aggressively that you “jolt the economy into a slowdown.” Another speaker was Fed VC Fischer in a CNBC interview, who said the Fed is watching political developments closely. The healthcare debate might change his internal calculus, but it won’t have much net impact on the FOMC. He thinks it’s sensible for the Committee to have a wait-and-see approach on fiscal policy for now. Last Fed’s speaker yesterday was Fed’s George who said that consumers are feeling more confident, in her keynote address on “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the conference, Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking. She noted she is not sure what fiscal policy will mean for the economy, and is yet not ready to put any numbers into her forecasts.

BoC’s Poloz said yesterday that the focus on downside risks is appropriate given that the economy is running below equilibrium. He said upside risks would be great, but downside risk are problem. It is his job in the current situation of focus on downside risk. If the economy was in equilibrium, the Bank would be equally concerned about both upside and downside risks. But we are not, he said, we are below equilibrium, so the Bank worries more about downside risks in this situation. As for the recent data, he said it is “Odd to forget about all those downside risks just because a few data points came in better than expected. We’ve had better than expected data points in the past three years.”

Main Macro Events Today


  • Brexit Day – U.K. is finally ready to trigger Article 50 today, which will start the process to review a total of 20,833 laws and regulations that were in effect in the EU and Britain at the beginning of the year and that will now have to be reviewed or replaced. Environmental, health and consumer protection as well as legal acts on workers’ rights and standards for social welfare systems will also be under review and in theory that means more than 50 legislative texts each day to keep within the 2-year time frame.



  • Donald Tusk – The president of European Council is going to give a press statement on the UK notification.



  • Fedspeak – Fed’s Evans, the dovish voter, speaks on policy and the economy from Frankfurt. The non-voter Rosengren will address the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Boston. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter appears before the Forecasters Club of New York, and will discuss a sustained recovery.



  • US Pending Home Sales – February pending home sales are due today and expected at 2.1% from -2.8% last month.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:55 pm
Date : 30th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down led by a sell off in Chinese shares amid tightening money supply. The CSI 300 is down -0.80% and the Hang Seng down 0.88%. Japanese share also traded lower, as the Trump administration pushes ahead with its reform agenda, while the Fed contemplates the number of further cuts this year. The Yen weakened and crude managed to held on to yesterday’s gains and Australia’s ASX managed to dodge the trend with a 0.39% gain, while U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. Global equity indices remain at very high levels, but despite gains on FTSE 100 and DAX yesterday Bund and Gilt futures moved higher and further signs that the ECB is far from ready to change its dovish guidance underpinned Bund futures in after hour trade, which should continue to cap yields this morning, despite the expected rise in ESI economic sentiment, which should be compensated to a certain extend by the expected decline in German HICP inflation.

U.K. finally triggers Article 50, by handing yesterday the official divorce letter to Tusk. May said she hoped for negotiations to be constructive and respective, while calling for a comprehensive free trade agreement including financial services, which for the EU will continue to look like an attempt to heave the cake and eat it. And with EU officials calculating that there will have to be around 50 legislative texts to be reviewed every day if the U.K. aims to stick to the 2-year time frame, this is not going to be a smooth ride. Battle lines are being drawn up now and while the U.K. aims for parallel talks for future arrangements alongside the key points of divorce, her counterparts want to settle the divorce modalities first. For now though nothing much will change as the U.K. remains part of the EU at the moment, although many companies have already started to adjust their plans. The first EU Brexit summit will be in a months’ time and with the German election coming up and more administrative hurdles to clear it will be some time before negotiations start in earnest.

U.S. reports: Pending home sales surged 5.5% to 112.3 in February, sharply beating forecasts, after falling 2.8% to106.4 in January. This is the highest since last April. But, on an annual basis, sales are down 2.4% y/y versus the 2.7% pace previously. Regionally, sales were higher in all four areas covered, paced by an 11.4% gain in the Midwest, while the South rose 4.3%. The Northeast increased 3.4% last month, with the West up 3.1%. The dollar edged a touch higher after the stronger pending home sales outcome. Additionally, WTI crude rallied to $49.62 from $48.60 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 900k bbl rise in crude stocks.

Fed’s Rosengren said he favors a hike at every other FOMC meeting in 2017, which would make 4 tightenings. Though once a dove, Rosengren turned rather hawkish last year. He is not a voter this year. He sees both Fed’s mandates being met this year. He expects continued continuity at the FOMC despite upcoming changes. Rosengren in Bloomberg interview: a faster pace of normalization should be considered he said. So far the FOMC has been very gradual in its tightening, and that should be the base case. And 4 hikes this year would still be a more gradual clip than in the last tightening cycle. Growth of 2.2% to 2.3% this year is a reasonable forecast. The economy is in a much better place now, and where the Fed wants it to be, but he doesn’t want policy to get behind the curve. Additionally, Fed’s Williams wouldn’t rule out more than 3 hikes this year, given upside risks, according to the text of his speech on From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes before the Forecasters Club of New York. On the other hand, Fed dove Evans said he backs 1 or 2 more tightenings this year, in comments on “The Times They Are A-Changin’,” at an International Capital Markets conference. There wasn’t anything new in his remarks, however. He believes weaker data this quarter is likely to be transitory.

Main Macro Events Today


  • EMU ESI – The ESI is expected to move higher, with our forecast for a rise to 108.2 from 108.0 coming with a risk to the upside after higher than expected PMIs and national surveys.



  • US GDP & Unemployment Claims – The third release on Q4 GDP is out on today and should reveal a 2.0% headline, revised from 1.9% in both of the first two releases. The Unemployment claims expected to fall to 244K from 261K reported last week.



  • German CPI – German HICP inflation expected to fall back to 2.0% y/y from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate, also due today, is expected to remain steady at 3.0%.



  • Fedspeak – The more hawkish Kaplan, a voter, will take Q&A at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s capital markets summit. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter will speak at a learning Community event. Mester, a non-voting hawk, speaks on improvement to the payments system. NY Fed’s Dudley discusses financial conditions and monetary policy.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.





Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:36 pm
Date : 31st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st March 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets mostly headed south in Asia overnight, with China’s CSI 300 outperforming, and managing a slight gain. The DAX managed to close slightly higher yesterday and the U.S. also consolidated modest gains, but the FTSE 100 closed down as Sterling strengthened and U.S. and UK. stock futures are also in the red after the losses on most Asian markets on the last trading day of the quarter. Markets continue to lack clear direction with corporate earnings and economic data underpinning optimism about the outlook for the second quarter, while politics remain a negative. The local calendar today as German jobless data, as well as Eurozone inflation data, with the latter expected to fall much more than originally expected, after German and Spanish numbers yesterday indicated that the later timing of Easter this year means prices for package holiday haven’t gone up yet, which is distorting the annual rate. The U.K. has house price data as well as the final reading of Q4 GDP. German retail sales and French consumer spending are also on the slate.

U.S. reports: revealed an upside surprise for GDP led by service consumption and a small 3k initial claims drop in the last week of March to 258k that largely sustained last week’s pop, leaving good news for the economy on net. For GDP, we still project 1.6% growth in Q1 before a stronger growth path in the 3%-area through Q2 and Q3. For claims, the path remains tight despite the rise over the past two weeks, and we would discount some volatility given this year’s late Easter, and the tight NSA claims readings of just 228k after a 225k BLS survey week reading, versus last year’s comparable readings of 231k and 236k in what was then the week of Good Friday.

Fed’s Kaplan reiterated 3 hikes is a good base case for this year. The hawkish Fed voter is participating in a Q&A session on monetary policy and the economy and at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, so the comments are rather wide ranging. He also said that rising confidence hasn’t translated into increased activity so far. The U.S.-Mexico relationship has led to a net increase in U.S. jobs. The weaker pound is helping act as a shock absorber for the U.K. economy. SF Fed’s Williams was mum on the economy and policy outlook in his prepared remarks as part of a panel discussion at a community event yesterday. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester supports further rate hikes, though not at each meeting, citing the sound U.S. economic expansion with the weak Q1 as largely transitory given residual seasonality in the data. She expects unemployment to remain below 5% for 2-years and reiterates her backing for beginning to trim bond holdings this year.

Main Macro Events Today


  • Eurozone HICP – Eurozone inflation is seen coming in below expectations and could fall to just around 1.8%, below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%.



  • UK GDP – Q4 GDP expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth.



  • US Personal Income – February personal income should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI surged to 56.5 in March versus February’s 57.4.



  • Canadian GDP – January GDP is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December.



  • Fedspeak – The dovish dissenter Kashkari will take Q&A at a banking conference. NY Fed’s Dudley will be in Bloomberg, while MPC Member Haldane Speaks is going to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:52 pm
Date : 3rd April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2017.




FX News Today

“Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered” goes the old trading adage. However, Wall Street and longer dated Treasuries are mostly net higher on the quarter, having weathered the Fed rate hike and some uncertainties over the Trump agenda after the ACA failure. Confidence remains high heading into April, as reflected recent sentiment surveys, the labor market continues to strengthen, and manufacturing is improving further. Data will be in full swing this week and will help formulate outlooks for Q2. In Europe, intrigue will continue swirl around the ECB’s exit strategy. The opening stance on Brexit between the UK and EU predictably focused on a “Hard Brexit” by the latter, though negotiations won’t be start in earnest until after German elections in September.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar features the March jobs report Friday, which has suddenly come upon us again after sealing the deal on the March FOMC hike last month. March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k vs 235k in February, with a 225k private payroll gain. Looking at the rest of the week, Markit PMI for manufacturing in March is due (Monday), along with March ISM manufacturing seen slipping to 57.0 from 57.7 and February construction spending expected to rise 0.8% vs -1.0%. The February trade deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to narrow to -$46.7 bln from -$48.5 bln, while MBA mortgage market report is due (Wednesday), accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 238k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. EIA energy inventories are also on tap. Initial jobless claims may retreat 14k to 244k (Thursday) for the April 1 week. In addition to the jobs report (Friday) will be the wholesale trade report and February consumer credit, expected to rebound to $18 bln vs $8.8 bln. FOMC minutes are due Wednesday from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first rate hike of 2017. But the Fed also surprised with a less hawkish stance than was feared by the markets, especially with respect to the dot plot where the median estimate called for only two more tightenings in 2017, for a total of three.

Canada: A busy week begins with the BoC’s Outlook Survey (Monday), which expected to show increased optimism as the recovery maintains momentum. However, indicators of capacity should remain consistent with still ample spare capacity, while employment measures reflect ongoing slack in the labor market. The trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to grow 2.0% in February after the 5.4% gain in January. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.6%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy. Hence, another run of firm data will not change our view that the Bank will hold policy steady at next week’s announcement (April 12) and though the first half of 2018. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to improve to 57.0 in March from 55.0 in February.

Europe: The Brexit process has officially begun, but both sides have merely set down pretty much as-expected positions. For Eurozone markets, at least, the Brexit issue has been overshadowed by the conflicting voices coming out of the ECB council ahead of the April meeting. Draghi did leave the easing bias in place in March, but pressure to drop return to a more neutral stance is mounting as data suggests upside risks to Q1 GDP numbers. Draghi is still insisting that rates can go down further, national central bank heads continue to talk about tapering and the sequencing of exit steps. Draghi will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance when he speaks in Frankfurt on Tuesday and Thursday and the minutes of the March meeting (Thursday), should give some indication of the extent on the discussion on the forward guidance at the last meeting.Data releases this week include the final readings of March PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 56.6 and the services PMI (Wednesday) at 56.6 Initial readings were better than anticipated and already pointed to an upside risk to Q1 GDP projections and German manufacturing orders (Thursday) and industrial production (Friday) for February will be watched carefully in that respect. The data calendar also has retail sales, German trade data and French production numbers.

UK: The focus will remain on the early stages of the Brexit process, though hard negotiations between the UK and the EU are not likely to start until after German elections in September. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the March PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.9, up from 54.6. Improving global demand coupled with the benefits of post-Brexit vote sterling weakness is underpinning the sector. The services PMI (Wednesday) has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior. Industrial production for February is also due (Friday), which is expected to rise 0.2% m/m after the 0.4% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Japan: In Japan, the March Tankan report (Monday) is seen rising to 12 from 10 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 18 for large non-manufacturers. March auto sales are also due Monday. March consumer confidence (Thursday) is forecast to improve to 43.5 from 43.1.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is busy this week, highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). RBA expected to hold rates steady at the accommodative 1.50% setting. Governor Lowe provides remarks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner (Tuesday). Alex Heath, the Bank’s Head of Economic Analysis Department participates in a panel (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks on Recent Trends in Australian Capital Flow (Thursday). The slate of economic data is relatively busy this week. Retail sales (Monday) are expected to grow 0.4% m/m in February after an identical 0.4% rise in January. Building permits (Monday) are seen falling 2.0% in February after the 1.8% rise in January. ANZ job ads for March and the Melbourne Institute inflation index for March are also due on Monday. The February trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to expand to A$2.5 bln from A$1.3 bln in January.

New Zealand: March QV house prices due Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:21 pm
Date : 4th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures extended yesterday’s gains in opening trade, as DAX futures head south in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session in Asia, where China and Taiwan remained closed for a holiday. Ongoing Yen strength is hitting exports and the RBA’s policy announcement, which left rates unchanged did little to cheer up the ASX. Investors continue to hold back ahead of the meeting between U.S. and China and FOMC and ECB minutes as well as U.S. jobs data at the end of the week. And with the European data calendar very quiet, Draghi’s speech is the only thing that could shake up things.

U.S. reports: revealed firm readings for March ISM and February construction spending, though we’re also seeing a 4% March drop in vehicle sales that trimmed our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. For the ISM, there was only a small March drop to 57.2 from a 30-month high of 57.7 in February, and the jobs index surged to a 6-year high of 58.9 from 54.2. Robust producer sentiment readings is allowing the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to sustain the 57 cycle-high from February, and this combined with other robust soft-data signals upside risk for our 220k March nonfarm payroll estimate as discussed in today’s commentary. For construction, a 0.8% February bounce after upward revisions beat estimates, with strength in new home construction and improvement that likely reflected mild weather, though with weakness in nonresidential construction and a January upward public construction revision that trimmed recent gyrations.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Harker repeated 3 rate hikes would be appropriate in 2017, in his prepared remarks on Privately Issued Digital Money “Won’t Drive Out” Existing Currencies, assuming things stay on track. But he said, there’s no need to rush. The tightening should be gradual in pace and incremental. Inflation is moving slowly but surely higher, while unemployment is at or near its natural rate. Harker is a voter this year, but these leanings suggest no urgency. Fed dove Dudley also had a speech yesterday. Mr. Dudley stuck to the script on student debt, which he sees as one potential headwind to economic growth that “could help lower the equilibrium Fed funds rate.” He views rising college costs and student debt burdens as potentially inhibiting U.S. upward income mobility, while overall student loan debt could hurt U.S. homeownership and consumer spending. Other than the tangential reference to the equilibrium Fed funds rate, there’s not much here for the markets to trade. See his “Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Household Borrowing, Student Debt Trends and Homeownership, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.”

Australia: The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance, as had been general expected following its April policy meeting. The statement by Governor Lowe noted improving global conditions, highlighting infrastructure spending and property construction in China, but noting that the domestic economy remains in transition following the end of the mining investment boom, with low wage growth persisting and underlying inflation seen rising only gradually. Lowe stuck with a focus on the Australian dollar, repeating that “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate” the economy’s transition phase. AUDJPY showing particularly sharp declines over the last couple of sessions. AUDJPY, which can be seen as a forex barometer of global risk appetite, is trading at levels last seen in early December. The RBA’s repetition of its desire to see the exchange rate remain a weaker level following its widely-expected decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50%, helped today weigh on the Aussies.

Main Macro Events Today


  • UK Construction PMI – The Construction PMI has as anticipating an almost unchanged reading of 52.4 after 52.5 in the month prior.



  • ECB – ECB President Draghi will speak in Frankfurt where he will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance.



  • US Trade Balance – February trade data expected to post a 7.2% improvement to a -$44.9 bln for the month from -$48.5 bln in January. The advance data on goods and service trade showed an improvement with that deficit narrowing to -$64.8 bln from -$68.8 bln in January.



  • Canadian Trade Balance – The trade report, expected to show a slight erosion in the surplus to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Energy exports are seen improving, as crude oil prices were modestly higher in February while natural gas prices were nearly flat on a month average basis.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[/size]
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 278
Points : 1539
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:24 pm
Date : 5th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2017.




FX News Today

U.S. reports: China and Twaian were leading Asian markets higher after returning from holidays. Elsewhere gains were more muted and the Hang Seng is slightly in the red, as investors eye the Trump-Xi meeting. Bets on potential gains from the development of a so-called economic zone in Hebei province helped to lift China, while benchmarks in Japan and Australia fluctuated as currency advances weighted on exporters FTSE 100 futures are higher, but U.S. futures are in the red. Oil prices are up on the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.38 per barrel. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index was in line with expectations. The European data calendar still has final services PMI readings for the Eurozone, as well as the U.K. services PMI. Eurozone officials are once again trying to hammer out a deal with Greece that will allow the payment of the next aid tranche.

US reports: revealed stronger than expected trade deficit data and factory goods figures that closely tracked assumptions, leaving a net boost to our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.2%, after Q4 growth of 2.1%. For the trade deficit, we saw a February narrowing to $43.6 bln from a 5-year high of $48.2 bln, leaving a gap that was $1.4 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report after a $0.3 bln narrowing in January. For factory goods, the data matched estimates with lean February nondurable increases of 0.2% for shipments and orders and 0.1% for inventories. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, equipment and inventories that slightly lifted most levels.

ECB’s Liikanen: Strong monetary support still needed. The Governing Council member told Germany’s Handelsblatt, that “strong monetary support is still needed”, as the improvements seen so far are not big enough to “fundamentall” change the central bank’s guidance. Liikanen admitted that there were discussions at the last meeting and “there are a lot of opinions in the Governing Council”, adding that the statement did notice some improvements and tweaked some parts of the forward guidance, but added that the ECB “emphasized that interest rates will remain low beyond the end of asset purchases”. According to Liikanen that was “undisputed” although “there were discussions about what is meant by the words ‘current or lower levels’. The comments highlight the increasingly divergent views at the ECB as the central bank is starting to think about exit strategies and a phasing out of QE.

Canada: Canada’s February trade puts a damper on the Q1 GDP outlook, which was riding high after the stunning 0.6% m/m surge in January GDP lifted prospects for Q1 GDP to the 3.5% area. But the February trade balance sets up a sizable drag on Q1 growth from net exports. USDCAD revealed little immediate reaction to the twin Canada/U.S. trade reports, where the U.S. deficit narrowed more than expected, and the expected Canadian surplus turned to a deficit. The pairing has since rallied to new three-week highs of 1.3456 however, even as oil prices move to session highs near $50.70. The Canada trade report has thrown cold water on expectations for Q1 GDP, apparently to the detriment of the CAD.

Main Macro Events Today


  • FOMC – FOMC minutes are due today from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first-rate hike of 2017.



  • UK Service PMI – The services PMI has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior.



  • EU Service PMI – The Eurozone services PMI expected to stay unchanged at 56.5, while Germany’s expected to stay unchanged as well at 55.6.



  • ADP Employment & ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The MBA mortgage market report will be released today, accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 187k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. Markit services PMI are due, alongside ISM Non-Manufacturing index seen easing to 57.0 in March vs 57.6.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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