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HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:52 pm
Date : 16th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.  This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD.  AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
• CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
• GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:17 pm
Date : 16th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA




S&P 500, Weekly

Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market.  Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.



S&P 500, Daily

Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.



S&P 500, 240 min

ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

Conclusion

Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.
  
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:23 pm
Date : 17th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

• US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

•  Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:49 pm
Date : 17th July 2015(Second Analysis).

DOWNTRENDING AUDCAD HAS RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AREA.




AUDCAD, Weekly

AUDCAD has been moving lower in a wide trend channel after failing to penetrate at parity in the beginning of the year. Downtrend is clearly taking place as we have lower highs and lower lows but at the same time we need to acknowledge that this movement is taking place close to a longer term range low. AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend before breaking below the long term range bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

This week the pair has rallied strongly from lower Bollinger Bands and a support area near 0.9331. AUDCAD is now approaching top of downward sloping price channel which suggests that the short term upside is getting limited. This area also coincides with a weekly resistance level at 0.9664 and a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9648. This resistance also lines up with a level that used to support price on closing basis in February this year. The nearest weekly support level is at the latest low at 0.9376 while the next significant weekly support level is at 0.9331.



AUDCAD, Daily

Price has been rallying higher for four consecutive days and is currently trading at July 1st. pivotal candle low. Several technical factors coincide around the current price level: channel top, upper Bollinger Bands and a pivot high from July 1st. These factors together suggest that price could turn lower from here. Additionally, Stochastics Oscillator is trading above the overbought threshold adding to the indication that this down trending market is quite overbought and therefore vulnerable at the current levels.

Price action today shows some signs of weakness as the pair is trading near opening price after a rally higher was rejected. However, it is still too early make conclusions based on today’s candle as trading action over the rest of the day is likely to change the form of this price bar significantly.

The next significant daily support level coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9515 while the nearest significant daily resistance level is at 0.9664.



AUDCAD, 240 min

The pair built a small base between July 6th and 14th and has since rallied almost the distance equivalent to the base width. The pair is at the time of writing AUDCAD is still finding support from a minor support level at 0.9584 and tries to rally higher. However, Stochastics is overbought and shows signs of slowing momentum as it is very close to moving below its signal line.

Conclusion

AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend rather than breaking below the long term range low. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

However, as long as we have a down trending market at a resistance, it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities. In short term, the pair is trading at resistance while still inside a downward trend channel. This suggests a move lower from current levels is more likely than a breakout from the channel. Look for momentum reversal signals between 0.9594 and 0.9664. If short trade signals take place and are successful then my targets are T1: 0.9515 and T2: 0.9475.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:32 pm
Date : 20th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, despite bearish momentum signals by stochastic oscillator analysis and a “Dow Pattern” down trend observation within the daily chart, may look to bounce off the May 27th low (1.0819) level to seek a lower top, ideally, around the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s. Short term traders may look into selling at any strength around the mentioned lower tops with targets into the 1.0750’s.

The EUR economic calendar started out this week with steady German June PPI inflation data; German inflation fell -1.4& y/y with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices dropped 4.1% m/m. Last week, the EUR faced several important thresholds in terms of the ECB policy meeting and some resolutions regarding Greece. This week, we have a relatively light economic calendar so traders should expect to see lower volatility levels from last week with price action firmly in control of the technical traders.

The dollar is firm against gold and the AUD in overnight Asian trade, although, the AUD has since recovered off today’s lows. This USD strength is set to resume from Friday trade as in-line CPI and better housing starts, numbers give support to the USD.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading lower against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• German Jun PPI inflation: was steady at -1.4% y/y, with prices down 0.1% m/m, as heating oil prices declined 4.1% m/m, after rising 2.4% m/m in May. Energy prices dropped 4.4% y/y and remain the dominating factor behind the sharp decline in prices over the year.

• CAD Wholesale Sales: for May are forecasted to come in at 0.5%, median -0.2% down from last 1.9% on the back of weaker commodity prices.

• USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks: is due to speak about the importance of financial reform.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:46 pm
Date : 20th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

WEAK GOLD REACTED LOWER AS CHINA BOUGHT LESS GOLD THAN EXPECTED.




Gold, Weekly

Gold traded slightly below a major support level at 1130.40 on Friday and then moved even lower in Globex session at 2:30 am London time this morning. Price of Gold is down by 1.58% at the time of writing after Gold futures market was hit hard when it was at its weakest. Gold was trading at 1125 at the time when suddenly trading volumes increased by over 100% relative to average volumes over the past few hours. This aggressive selling during the hours when the market is at its thinnest took Gold down to a next major support level at 1080.

I warned about Gold’s long term weakness in my two previous reports. In June 8th report I pointed out that price action in Gold since the US Dollar index (DXY) started topping has not supported the Relative Strength idea. A market that has true relative strength bounces sharply higher when factors constraining its move higher are removed. This never happened in Gold even though the restraining factor of DXY strength was removed for a while. In my June 22nd report I pointed out several bearish indications in the long term technical picture: lower highs, a lower pointing 50 period SMA together with downward sloping trend channel and the fact that lack of momentum is indicating lack of serious long interest in this market.

This morning’s move took Gold down to a historical support from 2010 and very close to the lower end of the price channel. This bounced the price sharply higher while nearest resistance level is relatively close at 1130.40. The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1135.60 coincides with this resistance. The next resistance area is approx. at 1142.



Gold, Daily

News that China has been much more moderate buyer in gold than it was thought to be contributed to the fall. For the first time in six years China unveiled how much gold it had accumulated since 2009. While markets had assumed that the Chinese government had been buying gold at a rate of approximately 40 tonnes per month the real number was just slightly above 8 tonnes. This added to the bearishness as one big buyer was much less active than was suggested by the analysts.

After trending lower in a regression channel the price of gold has now made an extended move to the downside. The levels near the long term channel bottom attracted some serious buying as gold has rallied over three percent from today’s low. The nearest significant resistance level is at 1130.40 while next resistance is at 1146. The 1130.40 resistance coincides with the channel low. The 1080 level at today’s low is obviously the nearest support level in the daily time frame.



Gold, 240 min

As price has moved so quickly lower there isn’t much to comment in terms of technical analysis. Also, the four hour picture is not significantly different from the daily chart. Price has rallied from a support and is now trading close to the mid-range of the previous candle. The lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band has limited the move higher and the price of gold has reacted slightly lower from the band over the last two hours. The nearest 4h resistance level is at 1129.60 while the support level is at 1080.

Conclusion

The long term weakness that was visible in price action has now materialized in a form of a sharp move lower through weekly support levels at 1130 and 1141.70. These broken supports together with a former daily support at 1146 are now  a likely resistance area. Long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold but in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report. Obviously price move can turn inside this range and not at the exact levels but the principle stays the same: we should see price action based confirmation before considering short positions.

Janne Muta
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:58 pm
Date : 21st July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, now having cleared the 1.0840’s, is currently testing the May 27th lows as price action managed to dip briefly to 1.0811 earlier today in what looked like limit orders being filled. However, buyers soon emerged to pushed price back above the 1.0820 key support area. Traders should expect price to re-test the 1.0820 area several times as buyers seem to be re-emerging around that zone. If price can manage to close the day above the 1.0820’s this will further support the view of an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s as discussed in my previous reports. Short term EURUSD traders should remain on alert for session closing prices above the key 1.0820’s support area that may open the way for an initial bounce towards the 1.0970’s -1.1030’s; however, if we see a session close below 1.0820’s that will favor fresh weakness towards the 1.0750’s.

Now that the Greek bailout deal has been put to the side for the moment, the markets can get back to focusing on important fundamental market moving data. The PMI number should dominate the remainder of the week with the Eurozone PMI numbers out on Friday.

The U.S. Fed’s Bullard said “the probability of a September rate liftoff is above 50%”, he also said that Greek uncertainties appear to be behind us, and that China’s stock market volatility is not large enough to impact U.S. monetary policy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This morning EUR is trading higher against the USD, GBP and the JPY. The NZD is stronger across the board against most pairs.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Consumption growth had been little changed for most trading partners in recent months, although it was perhaps a bit stronger in the United States and somewhat weaker in China.

• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing: The forecast for June is for -8.0B down from 9.4B



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:49 pm
Date : 22nd July 2015 (Second Analysis).

UPDATE: S&P 500 TURNED LOWER AS EXPECTED.




S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) turned lower soon after hitting my projection level at 2122 and is currently trading at 2102.75. This move lower was triggered by substantial overnight losses in Apple and Microsoft shares after IBM had lost ground significantly in the earlier trading session.

Apple posted record quarterly profit but was strongly sold off. Apple shares tanked nearly 9% in after-hours at one stage trade iPhone shipments missed forecasts and forecast revenues shy of the $51.1 bln targeted, wiping of some $50 bln in market cap. Apple shares cut those losses back to -6%. The absorption of Nokia also tarnished Microsoft’s results to the tune of a $7.5 bln write-off and 5.1% revenue decline for a $3.2 bln net loss, knocking its shares over 4% lower after-hours. Yahoo also missed and sank 2.2%.

I have been suggesting in the last two reports on ES that this market will rally the above resistance and will hit significant supply between 2111.25 and  2134. This has now taken place and for the benefit of those that have shorted the index in the resistance or will be selling the rallies we need to focus on the likely moves from here. In the July 16th report I said that the supply inside the resistance area should bring the ES down to 2073 – 2080 range and there is no need to deviate from this view.

Stochastics is rolling over from the overbought zone indicating further move down. This is likely as the next support can be found at 2078 level. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides with this area at 2080, therefore I expect market to find support in 2073 – 2080 range. There is some intraday resistance at 2009 to 2010 that might provide a short selling opportunity for those not engaged at the short side yet.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:51 pm
Date : 24th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price, continues to bounce from the May lows near 1.0820. This corrective bounce has attempted, but so far failed, to print a new lower top from the previous 1.1216 high. Yesterday’s high of near 1.1018 was a good attempt at the 1.1030’s, my previous article forecasted lower top. Traders should expect for the market to range between the 1.1030’s and 1.0870’s, now that the previous resistance turned support 1.0970’s area has been deemed invalid, as price has tested the 1.0970’s area both from below and above. Relevant support levels are now observed at 1.0920, 1.0870 and 1.0820, while resistance levels are spotted at 1.1030, 1.1087 and 1.1216. Given that the EURUSD price action is still firmly within the downward slopping price channel, as well as the fact that bullish momentum is observed within the Stochastic Oscillator analysis, I continue to be on alert for sellers to emerge around the 1.1020’s-30’s for a re-test of the 1.0820’s; any breach of the 1.0820’s will open up the way towards the 1.0750’s.

Eurozone Jul PMIs disappointed today, with readings falling slightly from June. The manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.2 from 52.5 and the services to 53.8 from 54.4. However, data continues to show ongoing expansion across the Eurozone manufacturing sectors, which supports the ECB’s view that the recovery remains intact and is broadening if not accelerating.

As for next week’s U.S. Fed policy statement, it should support Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony where she said that the “FOMC is likely to begin liftoff this year, provided the economy continues to improve as forecast.” Traders should prepare for a relatively positive assessment of the U.S. economy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

This afternoon the EUR is trading higher against the AUD. The AUD is weaker across the board against most pairs, while the JPY is stronger against the EUR.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR PMIs : French PMI readings were much weaker than expected, with the manufacturing PMI falling back below the 50 point no change mark to 49.6 from 50.7 in June. The services reading slumped to 52.0 from 54.1. German corrections were not quite as pronounced and the dips to 51.5 in the manufacturing PMI and 53.7 in the services reading from 51.9 and 53.8 point to a stabilisation, rather than a marked correction. Still, the weak French numbers, highlight that risks to the Eurozone recovery remain and that France continues to underperform.

• JPY Japan flash manufacturing PMI : rose to 51.4 in July compared to 50.1 in June as both domestic orders and output rose — the fastest clip in 5-months. New orders rose to 51.3 from 49.6, output gained to 52.3 from 50.9.

• U.S. New Home Sales : June data on new home sales is out today and should reveal a 1.1% decline to a 540k (median 549k) pace from the 546k pace in May which set a new recent high.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:08 pm
Date : 29th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th July 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Since the recent advance through the upper daily chart channel line was penetrated, and the fact that price remains within a 12 month decline, a further corrective bounce for medium term traders towards the 1.1220’s should not be ruled out. We will likely witness a potential breakdown back towards the 1.0870’s, ahead of my longer term price projection near the 1.0750’s. Swing traders with a short term view may look for price to return towards the 1.0970’s before flipping to the long side for a retest of the 1.1120’s.

The EUR has been trading off of the back of positive data this week, as German business and consumer confidence data came in firmer than expected; earlier today the German July Gfk held unchanged from June at 10.1. The consensus had been for a slight dip, to 10.0. High employment and expectations for higher pay underpinned the report. The EURUSD price advanced from Monday’s solid German Ifo results may consolidate ahead of today’s U.S. FOMC Statement.

Traders are waiting on the FOMC in the U.S., which concludes its two-day meeting today. No surprises are likely, and while the overall tone is expected to be more upbeat than the previous FOMC in June, the Fed is not likely to commit to a September rate lift-off. This is due to key data releases, concerns about China’s financial markets and Greece, and given recent oil price declines.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading firmer against the AUD, CAD and the NZD after better than forecast GBP Net Lending to Individuals’ data were released today.

The AUD and the CAD trade lower against most pairs, as commodity prices continue to seek a bottom.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate : The July Gfk consumer confidence came in firmer than expected, holding unchanged from June at 10.1,though concerns about Greece’s potential impact on the German economy remained a negative, according to Gfk.

USD FOMC Statement: No surprises are likely, and while the overall tone is likely to be more upbeat than the previous FOMC in June, it’s widely anticipated that the FOMC will be moderately net bullish for the dollar.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:21 am
Date : 3rd August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, continues to seek support from buyers as price remains above the downward channel line. The EUR found support around the 1.0920’s, as the USD dropped on Friday following weaker than expected U.S. Q2 ECI data. In my July 29th analysis, I reported that EURUSD price “may return towards the 1.0970’s, before flipping to the long side for a re-test of the 1.1120’s.” The fact that recent price action has exceeded the 1.0970’s to test and establish a higher low at 1.0920 from the July 20th low of 1.0808, opens up a renewed recovery towards the July 27th 1.1120’s resistance area. Price may now attempt to extend the recovery to the 1.1220’s before resumption of the multi-week decline.

Friday saw better EU inflation data as inflation remained stable at 0.2%, although, it was weaker than U.S. employment data, which sent the EURUSD sharply lower. The move was seen by the market as overdone and the EURUSD quickly made it back to test the 1.10’s.

The U.S. Fed funds median still shows a 25 bp rate hike in September, Key reports are on tap this week, including payrolls, PMIs, income, and spending.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous five day close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading firmer against the majors on the back of accelerating UK GDP data.

The CAD trades lower against most pairs, as Canada missed GDP expectations.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• UK Manufacturing PMI: There is downside risk after last week’s July CBI industrial trends survey unexpectedly declined to a -10 in the realized sales reading, which was the weakest since July 2013, reflecting the UK manufacturing sector’s sensitivity to the prevailing trade-weighted strength of the pound.

• USD Manufacturing PMI: July ISM will be released today and it’s expected that the headline to remain steady at 53.5 (median 53.8) for a second month.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:47 am
Date : 4th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, continues to trade within a multi-week downtrend; this is confirmed by the fact of lower tops and bottoms on price. The failed attack on the 31st of July to break above the 1.1120’s also supports the view that the bears are in control of the medium term EURUSD market. However, for the moment, price seems to be consolidating between a tight range within the 1.0920’s and 1.0970’s with traders seeking direction from the U.S. NFP release, due out on Friday. Technically, I would like to see price hold above the 1.0810’s – 1.0920’s after the upcoming NFP release for a potential short term price recovery to re-visit the 1.1220’s, before resuming the multi-week downtrend to reach my target price near the 1.0750’s.

The EU Outlook was revised down to negative from stable by S&P. The ratings agency is worried about the EU’s continual use of the balance sheet to provide higher risk financing to members without the members paying in capital.

The U.S. Market ISM manufacturing index inched up to 53.8 in July, from a 20-month low of 53.8 in June. This is the first pick up in manufacturing activity since March, but is the slowest pace of purchasing activity in 18 months. U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in June with spending up 0.2%, a little better than forecast; however, May’s 0.5% income gain was revised down to 0.4%.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading firmer against the majors on the back of a RBA statement that droped the call for more depreciation.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP PMI Construction: Unexpectedly declined to 57.1 in July from June’s 58.1. The median forecast had been for an improvement to 58.5. At 57.1, the survey still points to continuing robust expansion in the sector, while incoming mortgage and house price data suggest that underlying conditions remain solid.

• USD Factory Orders: The forecast calls for a 0.8% increase from the previous -1.0%.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:52 pm
Date : 5th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, closed sharply lower on Tuesday in the wake of fresh comments from the U.S. Fed’s Lockhart who suggested that “upcoming U.S. economic data would have to disappoint significantly to get the FOMC to delay a tightening in September.” The market reacted to the hawkish comments with the fresh buying of U.S. dollars, accelerating the downward pressure on the EURUSD pair. Now that the EURUSD has broken through the support turned resistance area of the 1.0920’s, and the fact that price has failed to hold a new higher low above the 1.1120.s, as well as, bearish momentum oscillator analysis, this leads me to hold firm my view that EURUSD prices will continue to trade firmly lower within the multi-week downward price channel towards my target area near the 1.0750’s over the coming days.

As the interest rate spread between the USD and the GBP against the EUR widens, and the expectation that the U.S. and the U.K will begin to raise rates, further supports the buying interest in the U.S. dollar and the British pound in the near term. Traders should also take note of the recent hawkish comments from the BoE and the Fed board members who have been dropping clues of pending rate hikes.

The AUD made a large move on Tuesday following better than expected trade and retail sales data, and then a change in language in the RBA statement following the anticipated decision to leave the cast rate at 2.0%. The Board said in its statement that “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” The AUDUSD rallied nearly 165 pips on the statement.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading higher against the majors as the latest PMI data continued to show solid growth. The AUD is retracing lower after yesterday’s strong advance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Services PMI: The services reading was revised to 53.9 from 53.8 and the composite to 53.9 from 53.7. Overall, the Eurozone economy is so far showing resilience and data is consistent with the ECB’s assessment that economic activity continues to broaden.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing: July service sector producer sentiment is out on later today and should reveal a 56.0 (median 56.2) headline for the month, steady from June. Other measures of producer sentiment for the month have been mixed but should allow the ISM-adjusted average for July to maintain the increase to 53 that we saw in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:05 pm
Date : 11th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has been rising for the last four trading days after it created a higher low at 1.0848 weekly support. This has brought the pair conclusively out of the bear channel after a breakout at the end of July failed. This first failed attempt but was a hint of things to come and market was able to create a higher low on August 5th. Yesterday was the first time EURUSD stayed outside the channel for a full trading day thus confirming that the downside dynamics that were in place in July are not dictating the market moves any longer.  Therefore, I expect that this week’s price action will be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. I am seeing a support area in the daily resolution between 1.0848 and 1.0934 while the nearest resistance area is between 1.1114 and 1.1189 and 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with these levels. However, before EURUSD can move up there, it has to deal with a resistance created by upper 2 stdv Bollinger band and 50 day moving average (currently at 1.1090). I expect the area between 1.1061 and 1.1130 to limit today’s trading on the upside and then look for a move to 1.0870.

German ZEW unexpectedly dropped in August, with the expectations reading falling to 25.0 from 29.7. The current conditions reading still improved to 65.7 from 63.9 and the expectations number still remains firmly in positive territory, indicating that optimists far outnumber pessimists. Still, the fact that investor confidence dropped again, despite signs that Greece is heading for a third bailout highlights that concerns about the impact of the Fed’s lift off and the outlook for the Chinese economy overshadow a more stable situation in the Eurozone. The strong current conditions reading, which ties in with a marked rise in German orders in Q2, suggest the recovery remains on track in Q3, but concerns about the longer term outlook seem to be on the rise. Bund futures extended gains on the weak number and the September 10-year contract is now up 44 ticks at 154.39.

China devalued yuan after July exports we down by 8.3%. Currencies were impacted by the PBoC’s devaluation of the yuan, with the AUD and NZD both losing over 1% to the USD in the wake of the move, while the won and the yen were hit by a lesser extent. An indirect bid for dollars saw EURUSD tumble back to the mid-1.09s after foraying above 1.1000 after the London close yesterday. The PBoC lowered the yuan’s daily fix to the U.S. dollar by 1.9% to 6.228, the largest devaluation since the central bank dropped its peg against the greenback. The move follows dismal trade data out of China over the weekend, and is apparently a one-off initiative intended to converge onshore and offshore pricing as a new pricing regime is put together ahead of the key IMF SDR inclusion vote later this year, according to the FT. AUDUSD dove over a big figure in making a one week low at 0.7305. USDJPY lifted to a two-day peak of 124.89.

European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. stock futures following China’s move to devalue its currency, which will add to concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, while prompting concerns that the devaluation will hamper exporters elsewhere as it will artificially boost the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. This could put fresh pressure on other central banks to take their own currencies more into account. The DAX was looking forward to an expected improvement in the ZEW after yesterday’s robust gains.

Fed’s Lockhart is still disposed to September lift-off though waiting a month or two won’t be decisive for the economy and a gradual tightening pace means something less frequent than a hike at each meeting. He sees some evidence of inflation heating up, though low global commodity prices could be a concern if they signal weak global demand. Lockhart considers progress on inflation important in setting the pace of rate hikes after lift-off. He views immediate risk of Greek spillover as passed, but any agreement still needs to be implemented. Seems he’s left himself some wiggle room on lift-off on the inflation threshold, despite still favoring a September move.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

AUD was hit today as China decided devalue its currency. The move was seen as a sign of weakness in Chinese economy and as AUD really trades on Chinese fundamentals it was sold off. After being down most against the safe haven currency CHF AUD is now down most against the EUR. However, there are losses against most of the other major currencies as well. The news brought AUDUSD to lower Bollinger Bands in 4h resolution while EURAUD broke out of a tight range it had been over the last four trading days. GBPAUD reacted by rallying to a resistance at weekly pivotal candle low. AUDCAD dropped significantly from a resistance on the devaluation news as Crude Oil has seen some strength from a major support.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• German August ZEW investor sentiment was expected to be rising to 31.0 (median 32.0) from 29.7 in July. However, the figure was down from the previous and came in at 25.

• US Wholesale Trade: June wholesale trade data is out today and is expected to show a 0.8% (median 0.5%) increase for June with inventories up 0.7%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 from April. The May release had shipments up 0.3% in May and inventories up 0.8%.

• US Productivity: The first release on Q2 productivity is due to be released today and should reveal a 2.0% (median 1.5%) headline which follows a -3.1% headline in Q1. Unit labor costs are seen at -0.5% (median 0.3%) after a 6.7% in Q1. Productivity was negative in both Q1 and Q4 of last year but is now poised to post gains.

• Canada Housing Starts are expected to improve to a 205.0k unit rate in July from the 203.0k pace in June. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Market Risk: The Bank decided that the threat from falling oil prices was the challenge facing Canada’s economy, and the downside risks to growth were enough for an insurance ease.  Such a move would seem to increase the risk of a housing bubble.  Not to worry, as the Bank says that easier policy will help assure incomes do not dive which will in turn allow households to service debt.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:47 am
Date : 12th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 12th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD rallied to the 1.1090 resistance identified in my report yesterday. The pair reacted lower but then attracted buyers at an intraday support at 1.1012. This has led to a fifth consecutive up day with price once again trying to challenge the resistance area above 1.1090.  EURUSD is trading inside the upper Bollinger Bands (1.5 and 2 stdv) and the Stochastic is getting overbought. Trend in 4h resolution has been strong and suggest that this will be another day without a significant correction in EURUSD but the upside is indeed getting limited as the resistance area is near. EURUSD is trading near levels that have been able to turn price lower before, therefore I expect that in today’s trading upside will be limited to 1.1090 – 1.1130 range.

The PBoC devalued again, shifting the yuan’s reference rate to 6.3306 versus the dollar, which is a 1.6% weakening of the Chinese currency relative to yesterday’s 6.228 (which itself marked a 1.9% depreciation). There seems a degree of acceptance in markets, with Credit Suisse economists, for instance, calculating that the yuan was 5 to 10% overvalued going into the devaluations, adding that anything more than a 10% shift in the currency would spark political backlash. Incoming Chinese data today, including production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, showed weakness.

German lawmakers not ready to wave through Greek bailout. There are reports that German Chancellor Merkel is facing opposition to the plan to let lawmakers vote on the third Greek bailout package early next week. A deputy to Finance Minister Schaeuble told ARD television that “one needs to look closely” and “ask the Bundestag for approval when the common understanding is that this will hold for three years”. If there is a delay it could derail Greece’s close time table and the race to get political approval before Greece faces another big ECB repayment on August 20.

German insolvencies are falling sharply, with the overall number down 6.6% y/y in the year to date and down 10.6% y/y in May alone. This is another sign of a relatively robust domestic economy, but also a reflection of the fact that especially small companies in Germany are facing fewer financing constraints than companies elsewhere in the Eurozone. The low interest rate environment and robust domestic demand are also helping t hem to perform.

Yesterday US wholesale sales edged up 0.1% in June and inventories rose up 0.9%. The 0.3% May sales gain was nudged down to 0.2%. May’s 0.8% jump in inventories was revised lower to 0.6% (0.4% April). The inventory-sales ratio increased to 1.30 from 1.29 (revised from 1.29). Gains in most of the nondurable sales components slightly offset broad-based declines in the durable goods sales. Inventories were boosted by autos and drugs. The data will help fine tune GDP estimates.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

This is yet another day that the market participants are selling Australian dollar due to another currency devaluation in China. AUD is down against the competitors across the board while money has been flowing into CHF. This is a sign that markets are concerned about these surprise moves by the PBOC and feel the need of finding a safe haven. AUDUSD tested the 0.7237 support earlier today and has rallied slightly at the time of writing. The nearest resistance is now at 0.7315.  EURAUD moved to the 1.5277 resistance and is now near to another resistance at 1.5332. GBPAUD is trading inside the upper daily Bollinger bands and has reacted slightly lower from the resistance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Main Macro Events Today UK Claimant Account Change for July is expected to come in at 1.5k compared to previous figure of 7.0k.

• Eurozone industrial production: there should be a decline in June production numbers of -0.1% m/m (median same0), after the disappointing German number. Data may be too backward looking to be a major market mover or change the overall outlook, but a weak number will add to prevailing risk aversion, especially after the surprise drop in the ZEW yesterday.

• US Treasury Budget: July treasury data is out today and is expected to reveal a $149 bln (median -$129.8 bln) deficit for the month. This compares to a $51.8 bln surplus in June and a $94.6 bln deficit in July of last year. Receipts are expected at $224 bln, up 4.6% y/y with outlays at $374 bln, up 20.9% y/y.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Aug 13, 2015 12:51 pm
Date : 13th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s rally exceeded my expectations for the day as EURUSD blasted through the resistance at 1.1130. However, it still is inside the range I said I would expect to contain this week’s price action. I suggested in my report on Tuesday that EURUSD would not trade beyond 1.1189 resistance. There was a quick move some 25 pips higher but it was quickly rejected by the sellers and the pair is currently trading at 1.1119.  EURUSD is now moving lower towards an intraday support area between 1.1030 and 1.1070. The next support level after this intraday support is the weekly high at 1.10996. This weekly high is fairly near to the support area above it and therefore adds to its significance. Nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0934 and 1.1214.

The PBoC devalued the CNY for a third day, but at a decreasingly aggressive pace of 1.1%, comparing to 1.6% yesterday and the initial 1.9% devaluation of Monday. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation — in contrast to the two previous occasions — arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2% to just 1%.

The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currency’s close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up.

Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1% y/y, CPI at 0.2% y/y, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7% y/y, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4% y/y drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise.

US Treasury posted a $149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7% erosion versus the $94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2% y/y, while receipts rose only 5.1% y/y. The fiscal year deficit now stands at $465.5 bln, worsening 1.1% y/y compared to the $460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0% y/y, with outlays up 6.9% y/y. We’re still forecasting a $430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -$483.3 bln for FY2014.

September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to China’s devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being we’ll maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40% chance for action. Odds were closer to 70% after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. It’s too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Fed’s guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued.



Currency Movers Charts

In today’s trading we’ve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U.S. doesn’t mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow.

• US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.6%) headline with a 0.4% (median 0.4%) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Monday’s commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1% bounce in auto sales will help lift the report.

• US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3% (median -1.0%) with export prices down 0.4% on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1% for import prices and -0.2% for export prices.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:18 pm
Date : 14th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850’s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220’s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080’s – 1.0980’s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260’s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns.

German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% q/q, a slight acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6%, up from 1.1% y/y in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2% q/q in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to France’s ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras’ coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon.

Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below $42 for the time being. Firmer U.S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7% m/m and fell 5.6% y/y. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9% y/y in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim.

• CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2% following the 18.0% drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U.S. dollars.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Aug 17, 2015 2:29 pm
Date : 17th August 2015.

GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE.




Gold, Weekly

I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report.

Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160.



Gold, Daily

Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation.

Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived.



Gold, 240 min

Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through.

Conclusion

Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 – 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 – 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:58 pm
Date : 18th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The dollar continued on a steady-to-firm path during pre-European trade session in Asia, despite weakness in US Treasury yields amid growth worries and talk the FOMC will delay lift-off beyond September. EURUSD ebbed to a six-day low of 1.1051, and USDJPY lifted to the 124.50 area, though the pair remained well within its Monday range.

For the last three weeks the Stochastics Oscillator has been giving high quality signals at both ends of its range. This happens when market moves sideways in a well-defined range. I said in my Aug 11th report that I expect this week’s price action to be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. The upper end of the range was tested over the next three days but price failed to penetrate the level on a closing basis. Since then the pair has been drifting lower. The key word here is drifting. Price move hasn’t been strong and volatile but rather quite gradual. The pair has now reached the support range I mentioned in my Aug 13th report (1.1030 – 1.1070) and trades at 1.1060 at the time of writing. Therefore, I expect price will find support very close to the current price. The proximity of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1044 supports the idea. Reaction higher however, could be short lived to as there is resistance in 1.1114 – 1.1125 range. If this I’m right and this resistance holds the support area between 1.08048 and 1.0934 becomes a likely target area for shorts.

German Financial Minister Schaeuble calls on lawmakers to back Greek aid package. He sends a strong signal off support for Greece’s 3rd bailout package ahead of Wednesday’s vote in Germany’s lower house of parliament, where Schaueble and Merkel are facing growing dissent from their own party. Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF that he sees a dramatic change in the government’s readiness to reform and that: “I can argue with full conviction, partly because I haven’t taken this decision lightly myself… that the right thing to do is to vote for this”. Schaeuble, like Merkel before him, seemed to be trying to play down difference with the IMF over Greece’s debt sustainability and stressed that he is sure that the IMF will be involved in the program.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose to 61 in August from 60 in June and is the highest since November 2005. The single family sales index edged up to 66 versus 65 last month (revised from 66). The future sales index was steady at 70 (July revised down from 71). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved 2 points to 45 versus 43 previously, and is the best reading of the year, underpinned by the gains in employment and still low mortgage rates.



Currency Movers Charts

The AUD is down after the RBA meeting minutes indicated that the bank believes the Fed rate hike will cause further depreciation in the AUD against the USD. NZD gained ground earlier today on the back of news on milk prices going up. According to Reuters there is a growing expectation that milk prices will rise in tonight’s auction. This commodity being important for the New Zealand economy potential for higher prices has supported the currency today.

EURAUD is trading near the lower end of a daily shooting star candle and looks like it might push into the above resistance. AUDCAD is rolling over from a resistance at 0.9670 towards a support at 0.9431. NZD has risen most against the AUD and the AUDNZD pair has been trending lower for past few hours. This has brought the pair to a 50 day SMA and a daily pin bar. This however is taking place in the middle of the daily chart price range. NZDCAD is trending higher after it was able to hold above the 50 day SMA. However, there is a weekly resistance level at 0.87 area and the pair is approaching the level again.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• RBA Policy Meeting’s Minutes: RBA policy makers were less worried about the currency appreciation in the beginning of August and said that weaker currency was helping exports. The bank deemed it likely that when the US Fed raises the rates the Australian dollar will depreciate in value against the US dollar.

• UK CPI: The y/y UK Consumer Price Index numbers are released today. The previous figure was 0.0% and with energy prices at multi-year lows there are no expectations that inflation would pickup now. Forecast: 0.0%.

• US Housing Starts: July housing starts data should show a 3% decline in the pace of starts to a 1,140k (median 1,180k) pace for the month. Permits are seen at 1,200k from 1,337 in June and completions should be 990k from 972k in June. The NAHB remained firm in July at 60 and today’s release showed a further increase to 61 in August.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:20 pm
Date : 19h August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Daily Yesterday’s intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMF’s assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only “limited” room for further Greek debt relief. So it’s hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. China’s economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1% loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2% decline (it’s not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1% dive of yesterday. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was boosted to 1.3% for Q3 from the previous 0.7% estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Friday’s industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7%. “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points.” US housing starts edged up 0.2% in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3% to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3% to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0% June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8% on the month, with multifamily down 17.0%. Housing completions increased 2.4% to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table. 



Currency Movers Charts

The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didn’t move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney.com prices for milk powder rose 19% from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27%. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auction’s 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should  support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets don’t seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

FX Pair Support Resistance
GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806
AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437
USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152
USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528
NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3% disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4%. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5% was welcome.

• US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2% (median 0.2%) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2% but which included a 0.6% decline for the energy component in July.

• FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0% in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isn’t operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollar’s strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. We’ll look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrow’s data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:39 pm
Date : 21st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 – 1.1094.

In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement we’ve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Fed’s lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36%.

All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996.

Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos? Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greece’s 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesn’t want to see through the agreed reforms.

German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy.

The July US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62% for existing home sales and 44% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79% for new home sales, 152% for housing starts, and 118% for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Fed’s taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3% above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0% for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8% 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23% from 22% in June but a higher 24% over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29% last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market.



Currency Movers Charts

AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. S&P 500 ended down over 2% yesterday while German DAX hadn’t a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7% while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities.

Today’s moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• China’s manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in China’s economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week.

• Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading.

• Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1% in June (median +0.3%) after the 1.0% bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5% in June (median +0.5%) following the 0.9% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0% in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates.

• Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in July (median same at +1.4%) following the 1.0% y/y rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.2% gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:22 pm
Date : 24th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015.


EURUSD, Daily

The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260’s target area; see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430’s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 – 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16’s.

German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4% m/m. The overall index rose 0.73% m/m and up 5.3% y/y. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued.

Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growth/inflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in China’s stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD.  The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum.

The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:


Main Macro Events Today

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:10 pm
Date : 25th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly +340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors’ realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Monday’s aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates.

At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13’s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750’s.

The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4% again.

Crude Oil touched $37.70 after making it to $39’s following its entry into to the $37‘s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again; the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold.

The White House said the Treasury is “closely monitoring” global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U.S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid “self-inflicted wounds”. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China won’t last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterday’s volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses; USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German IFO Index: Rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this month’s reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day.

• USD Consumer Confidence: August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:20 pm
Date : 26th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didn’t last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. China’s rate cut yesterday by the People’s Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12% in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008.

The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430’s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high.

The USD gets some support as the U.S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of today’s Core Durable Goods Orders data.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0% (median -0.5%) following a 3.4% bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5% from 0.5% in June and inventories to be up 0.6%, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June.

• USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:08 pm
Date : 27th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:49 pm
Date : 28th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday , I previously posted “I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.” This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14’s – 15’s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12’s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11’s to mid 1.1150’s.

The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77% and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U.S. economy following yesterday’s revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U.S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30% on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8% for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in China’s stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at +0.7% q/q.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP:: UK GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0%. The breakdown showed a 3.7% q/q rise in exports versus just a 0.6% q/q increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to +0.7% q/q. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9% q/q, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0% y/y.

• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:26 pm
Date : 31st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.

Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.

Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:26 pm
Date : 1st September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84%. The USD traded mostly weaker; oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near $54.3, and now trades just below $53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff have investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U.S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U.S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. The  markets will remain volatile until we see clearer signs from the U.S. Fed.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th – Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12’s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s for a 1.11 target.

German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4%. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is leveling off as the market is increasingly tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0%, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely; however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment have served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD.

The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets.

The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5% growth forecast, and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from July’s 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of June’s two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector.

• CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0% in Q2 (q/q,) after the 0.6% drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2% gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Fed’s. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrow’s release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:39 pm
Date : 2nd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Now that concerns about China and forecasted inflation numbers are being lowered, the ECB will now have renewed pressure to expand its QE, traders will be on alert for further ECB clues during tomorrow’s ECB press conference. If the ECB hints at further EU growth concerns, the odds will increase for additional QE which may provide enough of a catalyst to support EUR bear positions over the medium term.

The short term technical outlook for the EURUSD pair remains in an uptrend, however, momentum analysis looks to be weakening , if we can spot a Stochastic bull cross take shape below the 20 line hopes for continued upward price, momentum should remain intact. For the moment we cannot rule out a price move to retest the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s before the bears emerge once again to potentially carry the pair back towards the 1.11 support area. Traders should also remain alert for price moves out-side of the most recent upward channel line for breakout trade set-ups. I remain committed to selling into EURUSD strength over the coming days.

Chinese markets will be closed both tomorrow and on Friday, which may be good for global markets as it means that the risk of bearish stock market contagion from this source will be set aside until at least Monday.

Market concerns over how central banks will respond to new adjustments in global growth forecast have been a driving force behind the recent financial market volatility. Crude oil prices have been reflecting growth projections with prices now trading lower, around the $43 level. Oil prices today are shapely lower today after a short lived price rebound attempt which posted a largest multi day rally in a quarter of a century. The AUD and CAD have been trading towards the downside within daily chart analysis as money flows into the JPY over the last 5 trading days, as an alternative to the USD, EUR and GBP, this trend should continue until at least we see clearer signals from the U.S. Fed regarding when and if we will see a pending rate hike. This Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-farm Employment Change should provide a clue about the Fed’s next move.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors ahead of tomorrows ECB press conference and USD buying is expected to pick up again.

The AUD is starting to firm up after the manufacturing sector in Australia expanded in August at an accelerated pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed, with a PMI score of 51.7.

The CAD is mixed as the current account deficit narrowed by $0.7 billion in Q2 to $17.4 billion. The reduction in the deficit was mainly reflected in the trade in goods and services balance.

The JPY is also trading mixed as traders may be unwinding safe haven trades.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP PMI Construction (Aug): The UK August construction PMI rose to 57.3 from July’s 57.1, below the Reuters median forecast for 57.5 but marking what is now the longest period of growth for seven and a half years. Today’s report follows yesterday’s disappointing manufacturing PMI, and investors will now be looking to tomorrow’s release of the service sector survey to complete the August PMI picture.

• EUR Producer Price Index: Eurozone PPI inflation held steady at -2.1% y/y in July, with prices down 0.1% m/m. The headline rate remains under pressure from lower energy prices, which dropped 0.5% m/m and were down 6.5% y/y. Excluding energy the annual rate in the Eurozone would have been -0.4% y/y, still in negative territory, but unchanged from July and up from levels seen earlier in the year. This ties in with the rise in core inflation reflection in HICP numbers. Inflation may still be negative but the risk of real deflation is lower than it was last year and this should keep the ECB on hold even if Draghi will likely affirm a clear easing bias at tomorrow’s meeting.

• USD Factory Orders: July factory goods data is out on today and its expected for orders to be up 0.7% (median 0.7%) on the month with shipments up 1.2% and inventories up 0.1%. This compares to the already released durable goods data for the month which had orders up 2.0% with shipments up 1.0% and inventories unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.34 in July from 1.35 since April.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:24 pm
Date : 9th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

In The 1.1214 resistance worked again yesterday and turned EURUSD down after the pair rallied from the support area identified in yesterday’s report. The pair keeps on moving sideways between a pivotal support at 1.1085 – 1.1150 and resistance at 1.1214. The pair also seems to honour 50 period SMA in the 4h timeframe as the slightly descending moving average has been limiting EURUSD advances lately. Today’s candle has potential to be a decisive one as it will create another lower high should it close down. There are two lower lows already and should today’s bar close below previous candle low another lower high will be created. Price has created lower highs in intraday charts, which suggests that the pair should move further into the aforementioned pivotal support. Apart from this pivotal support area support and resistance levels are at 1.0930, 1.1018 and 1.1214.

ECB’s Reinesch: Loose Monetary Policy support structural reforms. The governor of Luxembourg’s central bank said the “current accommodative monetary policy” provides a “window of opportunity” for structural reform. He stressed that “favourable financing conditions will offset possible short-term adjustment costs and will bring forward the longer-term benefits of reform”. According to Reinesch these “could focus on simplifying the administrative burden involved in creating a new firm or in growing a firm beyond arbitrary thresholds which trigger increases in compliance costs.” The ECB has been urging enhanced structural reforms for a while now, but in our view the risk is that without market pressure, governments will continue to shy away from any measures that could risk votes.

According to Eurostat the Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a second estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.5% in both areas. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2015, after +1.2% and +1.7% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2015, GDP in the United States increased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.2% in the first quarter of 2015). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.7% (after +2.9% in the previous quarter).

The US consumer credit expanded 6.7% in July. It is a sign of confidence most likely propelled by low fuel prices and relatively steady job market. Outstanding consumer credit, a reflection of nonmortgage debt, rose $19.1 billion or at a 6.7% annual rate in July, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. Consumer credit has been trending higher. It has increased each month for nearly four years. July credit growth was roughly in line with economists’ expectations. They had predicted a $19.5 billion increase. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, rose at a 5.7% annual rate. In June it climbed at an annual rate of 10%. Non-revolving credit, made up largely of auto and student loans, increased at a 7% annual rate, compared with 9.4% in June. Almost 70% of US GDP growth comes from consumer spending and steady growth in consumer credit therefore is a positive indication for the economic growth.

The US Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) rose by 2.1 points in August. This was the largest monthly improvement in US labor markets over the last six months. There were also revisions for previous months’ readings 2015 were revised up by a net 2.3 points in yesterday’s release.  This measure contracted by 370 points from January 2008 to June 2009 but now it has made up about 90% of the 2008-09 deterioration.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

All currencies continue their rally against JPY today. JPY is typically seen as a safe haven currency and stock market gains across the globe signal that investors and other market players are once again ready accept risk. All the other currencies seem to be on a wait and see mode as fluctuations are relatively small when compared to JPY.

USDJPY has broken out of a 4h downtrend and is now trading near Aug 28th pivotal resistance. The low at 120.90 has tested bull commitment in USDJPY today. AUDJPY has rallied to a level that turned the pair lower Sept 3rd and has caused the market to hesitate: bearish pinbars in 4h chart. EURJPY hit the upper end of my resistance area at 135 and turned lower. Looking bearish now with some room to fall.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Chinese import export data disappointed. Imports slumped by almost 14% year on year while YoY exports declined by 5.5%.

• Canada Housing Starts: We expect starts to improve to a 195.0k unit rate in August from the 193.0k pace in July. The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Building permits will also be released and are expected to show a 5.0% drop in July after the 14.8% surge in June. A pull-back in multi-units is seen driving the pull-back in total permit values.

• Bank of Canada Rate decision: The August jobs report capped the recent run of data consistent with an economy at mid-year that is not in need of further policy stimulus. We’ve seen encouraging reports in the form of a 0.5% bounce in June GDP, back to back June and July export gains and jobs growth in both July and August. Granted, considerable downside risks remain, notably via a weaker China and volatile oil prices. But an improving U.S. economy underpins the outlook for ongoing growth in exports — about 75% of Canada’s exports are shipped to the U.S. And the plunge in Q2 investment suggests the worst of the oil patch investment cuts are behind us. While no further stimulus is currently necessary, the Bank of Canada will maintain a very dovish tone in Wednesday’s announcement as they retain scope to take further action if the economic data take a dive.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 16, 2015 2:24 pm
Date : 16th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD closed yesterday below the previous day’s spinning top candle low. This is further confirmation for the bearish view that I had yesterday. Yesterday’s analysis pointed to a reversal and provided a resistance to trade against. This 1.1328 resistance worked to a pip yesterday as price moved to 1.13287 after the publication of this report yesterday. The pair has rallied to the spinning candle low in the Asian session today and reversed lower once again. EURUSD has since penetrated 4h lower Bollinger Bands (20) and trades near 50 period SMA in 4h chart. The next resistance area is at 1.1285 to 1.1300, roughly coinciding with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1305 while next significant daily support is found at 1.1190 with 61.8% Fib level nearby at 1.1196. The 50% retracement level coincides with a daily high at 1.1230 (from 8th September) and could cause a small rally.

Several ECB officials have been voicing their opinions on the bank’s QE program. ECB’s Constancio: ECB has scope to expand QE if necessary. The ECB’s Vice President highlighted that compared to the programs introduced by Fed, BoE and BoJ, the ECB’s asset purchase program has been relatively small.ECB’s Nowotny: QE extension or expansion possible. The Austrian central bank head said in an interview with Die Presse, that the asset purchase program has had a number of positive effects while highlighting that the low inflation in the Eurozone is a big problem for the ECB. Interestingly, he didn’t blame lower oil prices, but the dramatic deterioration in the economic outlook for emerging markets, adding that the main problem isn’t so much China as countries like Brazil. ECB’s Weidmann warns cheap money doesn’t help to boost sustainable growth and production potential, but in an interview with Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung, he warned again that it increasingly harbours risks also to financial stability. Weidmann was recently appointed as new head of the BIS, which in its latest annual report also warned that markets remain too reliant on central bank stimulus, in contrast to the IMF, which is calling for ever more easing measures to support world growth.

The lack of major negative surprises in today’s data keeps the FOMC on course to announce a 25 bp rate hike on Thursday. Though it remains a close call. While the Fed is mostly meeting its mandate on economic growth (we’re forecasting a 3.0% GDP growth rate for the second half of 2015) and the labor market, the renewed downturn in commodities may reduce confidence that the 2% inflation goal will be met anytime soon. And various exogenous factors, including worries over slowing growth abroad and increased volatility in the financial markets, add to the dovish, no hike case. Unfortunately the FOMC has conditioned the markets to react bearishly to hints of normalization such that there will never be a “good time” to commence liftoff. There’s been no need for the Fed to maintain its emergency policy stance all these years, and a 25 bp hike should have only limited impact, especially if policymakers continue to indicate a gradual path for the future.

US reports yesterday revealed a largely expected round of August retail sales and July business inventory figures that had no net impact on our GDP estimates of 3.0% growth in Q3 after an unrevised 3.7% figure in Q2, with real consumption growth of 3.0% in Q3 after a Q2 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.1% that was previously signaled by strong QSS data. We also saw a weak round of September Empire State figures that extended August weakness, alongside a big 0.4% August industrial production drop after a 0.9% (was 0.6%) July surge that reflected an even bigger than expected vehicle sector gyration around retooling. Today’s figures did little to alter the sales and inventory outlook, beyond reinforcing the view that factories face big headwinds from an inventory overhang and a vehicle sector drop-back after a July pop, and a petro-sector recession that’s been aggravated by further oil price declines.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The US Fed has started its two day meeting in which they are to decide whether to lift the interest rates from the zero level. There has been movement in AUD today. Currency has moved most against USD, EUR and GBP. AUDUSD is rallying and trying to move above 50% Fibonacci level and towards a 0.7219 resistance that coincides with a 61.8% retracement level and proximity of downward weekly regression channel.  EURAUD is rolling over inside a topping formation and towards a support level at 1.5566. The pair is now trading below 1.5770 resistance. GBPAUD has reached a support provided by both 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Bands (20). This level is also a weekly high from six weeks ago. With this in mind and Stochastics oversold the current reversal signs in intraday resolutions should lead to a rally higher.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EMU final Aug HICP: The headline reading was expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, but there is some risk of a downward revision, after yesterday’s weaker than expected French number. Lower energy prices are driving the annual rate down again, but the gap between the headline number and the core measure is widening. Even the latter remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but with the labour market starting to improve and economic heavyweight Germany posting sizeable increases in unit labour costs, underlying trends are picking up, even if energy price developments could push the headline rate back into negative territory in coming months.

• Canada Manufacturing: should rise 1.0% in July after the 1.2% gain in June. A 2.2% gain in exports provides a compelling reason to forecast another solid gain in manufacturing shipments during July. An as-expected gain in shipments would provide further support for the Q3 rebound scenario, supportive of no change in BoC policy for an extended period.

• US CPI: August CPI data should reveal a flat (median unchanged) headline with a 0.2% core increase. This would leave overall CPI up 0.2% y/y with the core index up 1.8% y/y. The drop in gasoline prices has weighed on price measures and we expect this to be the case in the CPI release where gasoline prices look poised to decline by 2% for the month. This effect was already visible in the month’s PPI data where we saw a flat headline for August as well.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:38 pm
Date : 30th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily chart observations show a pause in the August price advance from 1.0850 to 1.1713 with current price lacking direction. The fact that price had stopped near the 260 period moving average around the 1.17 area gives reason that downward pressure on price is still present. Further moving average analysis spots a bullish double moving average cross of the 10 and 50 MA that accrued around mid August. Additionally, a bullish stochastic oscillator supports my technical view that price may attempt to make a new lower top sub 1.1460 before tracing out some range trading between 1.1460 and 1.1090. Traders may look to stand aside while price trades in a range or attempts to play the range between the relevant support and resistance levels indicated on the above EURUSD daily chart.

The German jobs market is looking healthy as the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.4% and wage growth is accelerating, which together with low inflation is pushing up disposable income and underpinning consumption. France has been underperforming Germany amid the lack of structural reforms and weak productivity growth, but latest confidence indicators suggest that despite the fundamental weakness in the French economy, there is somewhat of a cyclical recovery that is having a positive effect.

ECB’s Hansson: “Everything is possible” on QE. The Finnish central bank head said at a conference in Italy that “it is too early to discuss changes to the quantitative easing program”. He added that there are “moderate” inflation pressures in the Eurozone and that “a lot depends on how inflation will develop, if it slows or accelerates”. So for now the ECB remains in wait and see mode, while keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Asian stocks rallied. The Nikkei 225 closed with the solid 2.7% gain and Australia’s ASX 200 with an impressive 2.1% rise, while the Shanghai Composite was showing just over a 1% advance in late PM session.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in September rose to 103 from 101.3 in August. This points to a continuation of strong consumer spending.



Currency Movers Charts

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The JPY is trading slightly higher across the board even through Japan Retail Sales shrank in July, the AUD is sharply lower as continued weakness in China and commodities prices will dominate the path of the AUD.

The EUR is showing some signs of strength as price trades in a recent range as the market wait for the U.S. jobs report data on Friday.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP data show an unexpected down revision to 2.4% y/y from the 2.6% provisional estimate, though the q/q figure is unchanged at 0.7% growth. The quarterly growth figure is an improvement on Q1′s 0.4%, though deteriorating global conditions and survey evidences point to a ebb in Q3 growth back to a 0.5% rate.

• EUR German retail sales: Dropped 0.4% m/m,less of a correction from the strong rise in July but against consensus expectations for a slight rise over the month. Retail sales cover less than 50% of overall consumption and are likely understating overall trends, although annual increases in retail sales also remain robust as low unemployment, sizable wage gains and low inflation boost real disposable income.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index Producer sentiment looks poised to improve slightly with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 from August and 53 in July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:59 pm
Date : 1st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to lack direction within the daily chart and it is beginning to appear that a trading range may be forming between the 1.1460 and 1.1090 levels over the short term. This period of lackluster price action should remain as the market waits for the U.S. jobs data due out on Friday. Traders should look towards commodity prices for any signs of a bottoming which may contradict data that still points to slower global growth. The likelihood of a stronger USD and weaker EUR should remain as the main trend into the year end as fallout from the European automotive industry and the likelihood of further ECM QE increases.

Today’s mixed European PMI readings will give ECB policy makers something to argue about at the next council meeting, especially as downside risks are picking up in light of developments in the global economy and the fallout from the emission scandal for European automakers. The current mixed readings are clearly showing up in the EUR as price has yet to choose a direction with trader’s undecided on which side of the trade to take.

The global stock market rebound is still continuing for now, despite a dip in Japan’s Tankan index, and stabilization in China’s manufacturing PMI at contraction levels. The USD has been trading firmer against the EUR and GBP over the last 5 trading days on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gain in Asian stock markets. The AUD and CAD, meanwhile, rallied to one-week highs versus the USD, while the NZD hit a two-week peak.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggests a slight slowdown in overall growth dynamics, but a more balanced picture across the Eurozone.

The GBP is trading mixed after the UK manufacturing PMI came in fractionally above market forecast.

The CHF is sharply lower in the wake of an unexpected dip in the Swiss SVME manufacturing PMI.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI is fractionally above forecast at 51.5 in September data. The survey this month indicates stabilization in the sector at moderate expansion, holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4, which was seen in June. Sterling has traded modestly higher in the wake of the data.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 270k) in the week-ended September 26. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,213k for the week-ended September 19. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause.

• USD Manufacturing ISM: The September ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.1 in August. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in the early month reports. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
Number of messages : 280
Points : 1543
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Year : 31

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:50 pm
Date : 2nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD short-term trend remains flat and range bound with a price recovery towards the 1.1460 area looking unlikely as long as price remains below the 1.1280 level. Yesterday’s U.S. report revealed a disappointing September ISM drop and a downward bump in the construction spending though the three months ending in August was not enough to push the EURUSD to close above the lower end of the 1.12’s (61.8%). Potential trade setups for the short term are to enter short positions near 1.1280 for a 1.0930-1.0920 target; alternatively, on a clean break of 1.13, long positions could be opened for a 1.1460 initial target.

The European calendar yesterday was focused on manufacturing PMI readings. The overall Eurozone September manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.0, in line with the preliminary reading and down from 52.3 in the previous month. France is returning to growth and only Greece is in contraction territory, although, even the Greek manufacturing PMI has started to pick up again. So, pretty much a confirmation of what the ECB sees – ongoing growth, but with reduced momentum, even if the recovery is broadening somewhat.

The UK manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected at 51.5, which is only marginally down from August’s 51.6. The sector continues to expand, although it is holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4.

Bank of Japan sees little immediate need for adding stimulus according to Bloomberg headlines.

Fed Williams repeated his rate hike call for “sometime later this year” in his speech from Salt Lake City. The news shouldn’t sway the markets much ahead of today’s payrolls report.

NYMEX crude has fallen back to $45.20 lows, after peaking at $47.08 earlier. The move comes as the National Hurricane center shifts the path of the hurricane further East, and away from energy infrastructure on the northeastern coast.



Currency Movers Charts

The JPY is weaker as Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment this week found the index for large manufacturers to be slightly worse than expected. A pattern that has been persisting since mid-August with periodic bouts of demand for the safe haven of the yen having been interspersed with bouts of relative calm. In the background are expectations for the BoJ to expand its QQE program at its Oct-30 policy meeting.

The EUR has drifted modestly lower, to the 1.1160 area after failing to hold gains above 1.1200 on several attempts over the last day.

The GBP is mostly stronger as the U.K. construction PMI rose to 59.9 in the headline of the September survey, up from the 57.3 reading of the August survey and above the 57.5 median forecast. Residential construction rose at the quickest pace in a year, and job creation lifted to its best level in three months.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR ECB Draghi’s Speech: Draghi is taking a “wait and see stance” and with core inflation actually trending higher, labour markets stabilizing, wage growth picking up and credit conditions also improving it is not hard to see why.

• USD Factory Orders: August factory orders are expected to fall 1.5% with inventories down 0.1%.Forecast risk: downward, given the weaker top-line durable goods numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timing.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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