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Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:26 pm
Date : 6th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 6th November 2015.



271K NEW JOBS INSTEAD OF 190K EXPECTED!



EURUSD, Daily

US nonfarm payrolls surged 271k in October from a revised 137k in September (was 142k) and 153k in August (was 136k) for a net 12k upward bump. These put the 3-month average at 187k. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.0% from the 5.1% over the prior two months. The labor force rebounded 313k from -350k previously, while household employment climbed 320k from -236k. The participation rate held at 62.4%. Average hourly earnings were up 0.36% from September’s unchanged. The workweek was steady at 34.5. Private payrolls jumped 268k with increases of 27k in the goods producing sector, 31k in construction, with manufacturing unchanged. Employment in the services sector climbed 241k with strength in business services, education, and trade/transport. The government added 3k. Start the countdown.

Surprise strong number send the USD higher against the currencies and Gold while European equity markets reacted higher. EURUSD traded almost down to 1.07 and is at the time of writing reacting a bit higher. This number increased the markets’ belief that the Fed will hike the rates in December. Therefore the previous support at 1.0837 should act as a resistance and we’ll be looking for short signals at the level should the market rally there next week. The nearest support is at 1.0666.

MACRO EVENTS & FOREX NEWS



FX News Today

The USD has remained firm; ahead of today’s all important NFP data. The data carries make or break potential with regard to the possibilities of the Fed initiating a rate lift-off in December, and with the unemployment rate widely anticipated to dip to a new cycle low of 5.0%, markets are positioned for this eventuality.

The BoE is clearly in no hurry to hike; the GBP hit a new low against the EUR after the BoE left the policy unchanged as widely expected. In addition, the minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favor of steady policy. The tightening bias was left in place, but the bank did cut its near term forecasts for growth and inflation and clearly is in no hurry to start the first tightening cycle since 2007. In general, central banks seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment, with December being the next focal point. Until then, markets are likely to remain volatile.

German industrial production dropped; the data is much weaker than initially expected, but not a surprise after the slump in manufacturing orders. The number left production down -0.2% q/q in Q3, after a rise of 0.2% q/q in the previous quarter. This is not a good sign for Q3 GDP numbers, due next week. Additionally, the September data highlights that slowing growth in emerging markets, the widening of the emission scandal and now the refugee crisis are all leaving their mark on the German economy. And slowing growth in Germany will put additional pressure on Draghi to implement further easing at the December council meeting.

The AUD was unmoved by the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy; which was upbeat on the economy, emphasizing re-balancing away from the resources sector. While acknowledging the recent dip in inflation, the central bank noted that it sees inflation rising in the medium term.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Non-farm Payrolls: October nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.0% from 5.1% last month. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.2% which would leave a 2.3% y/y rise. Hours worked should be up 0.2% for the month following a 0.2% decline last month. Initial claims averaged 263k in October from 269k in September and 275k in August.

• CAD Unemployment Rate: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in October after the 12k gains in August and September. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job gains in July and August were the first back to back gains this year, and the further expansion in September suggests some upwards momentum building in the labor market. But this report is volatile, so a modest jobs decline can’t be ruled out in October given the still fragile nature of the economy. Market Risk: An as-expected gain would add to the second half rebound scenario, which is consistent with the Bank’s own view and hence would not alter the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. Hours worked will be of interest, as the stunning 0.8% surge in August was followed by an 0.8% drop in September. Hours are seen rising 0.5% m/m in October. The unemployment rate is expected at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% in September as the highest rates since February of 2014. Average hourly earnings are seen accelerating to a 3.5% y/y pace in October after slowing to 3.0% y/y in September from 3.4% in August. That would remain in-line with a tame compensation cost back-drop and an economy running with spare capacity.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:10 pm
Date : 9th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th November 2015.



EURUSD REACTING HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DROP



EURUSD, 240 min

After the huge surprise in the US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday the market participants saw the December rate hike in the US as a done deal. This dropped EURUSD to a 1.0666 – 1.0752 support range and drove the US Dollar Index into a resistance (see Friday’s TCM report). As a result EURUSD has recovered slightly and is at the time of writing up by 0.27% from Friday’s close.

All in all the pair is still in a downward sloping channel with resistance ahead at 1.0833. The upper end of the channel isn’t far away from the resistance while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level coincides with the general area of this resistance. In addition the 30 period SMA happens to be relatively near to the resistance at 1.0872. Based on several technical factors coinciding between 1.0833 and 1.0872 I am looking for short trade signals in this bracket should the price rally to these levels. My target for a short trade is at 1.0755.

USDJPY CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DOLLAR BUYING SPREE



USDJPY, Daily

The USD strength and strong data out of the U.S. on Friday has seen the USDJPY extended its post U. S. NFP gain, making a 123.60 peak, the highest level seen since Aug. JPY weakness continues, with the currency following its usual inverse correlation with stock markets. Technically, over the medium term (multi-week), I am seeking a USDJPY target near the 125.20 area, and possibly 128.20-50′s in a measured Fibbo Expansion move (116.16 Aug. low – 121.47 Oct. High). Relevant support levels are 123.15 and 122.


THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be back-loaded this week with retail sales and PPI due to be released on Friday-The-13th and only a handful of minor data updates in a week bisected by the Veteran’s Day break on Wednesday, when bonds and the Fed will be closed but equity markets remain open. It is likely that after Friday’s catch-up payrolls report that the markets will be extra sensitive to any signs of a pick-up in consumption and wage gains this week, though this may not yet be evident. The week kicks off with the Fed’s October LMCI (today), but it’s merely a compilation of already known data. Import and export prices are set to fall 0.3% apiece in October (Tuesday) and -0.3% ex-petro (medians -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Data resumes after the break with the MBA mortgage market survey (Thursday), initial jobless claims seen declining 7k back down to to 269k. October PPI is set to rise 0.3% vs -0.5% in September (Friday), while the core reading rises only 0.1% vs -0.3%; or -1.1% y/y and 0.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in October for headline and ex-autos both (medians 0.4%, 0.3%), while business inventories may sink 0.2% (median unchanged) in September and preliminary Michigan sentiment is forecast to tick up to 91.0 in November vs 90.0.

Canada: In Canada, the data calendar is thin this week, with only housing figures due for release. Housing starts (today) are expected to slow to a still strong 220k unit pace in October from the 230.7k rate in September. The acceleration in starts growth during September left the fastest growth rate since the 243.8k clip in April of 2012 and was driven by a 10.5% gain in multi-unit starts to 157.9k units in September. e expect moderation in multi-unit starts to weigh on total starts in October. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August. 

Europe: German HICP (Thursday) should be confirmed at 0.2% y/y (med same) while French HICP, released for the first time, is seen rising to 0.2% y/y (med same) from 0.1% y/y. Italian and Spanish HICP rates are expected to be confirmed at 0.3% y/y and -0.9% y/y respectively. This should leave the Eurozone aggregate, out the following week at 0.0% y/y. Final inflation numbers aside, the other focus are GDP readings for the third quarter on Friday. Italian GDP growth is seen steady at 0.3% y/y, German GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 0.3% q/q from 0.4% q/q in the second quarter and French GDP is seen picking up again after the stagnation in the second quarter and we are looking for a modest rise of 0.2% q/q (median 0.3%). This should leave the overall Eurozone growth number at 0.4% q/q (median same) also unchanged from the second quarter. Eurozone data releases also include September trade numbers out of Germany (today) and for the Eurozone as a whole (Friday). France releases September production numbers on Tursday, followed by the Eurozone aggregate on Thursday. 

United Kingdom: The week ahead is highlighted by BRC retail sales report for October (Tuesday), along with the monthly labour market data covering September and October (Wednesday). The data will arrive with BoE tightening expectations having been put in limbo after the central bank trimming both growth and inflation expectations in its November Inflation Report, published last Thursday, and with Governor Carney having elevated China’s impact on inflation. The BRC report is not likely to alter this picture, where we expect a moderation in October after a strong gain in September. We forecast a 0.8% y/y rise in the headline like-for-like measure, down from 2.6% y/y growth in the month prior. The labour market report should show a continued picture of health, with the September ILO unemployment figure seen remaining at the 5.4% cycle low that was achieved in August, and while we see the October claimant count at a new stagnant +1.4k, we anticipate a solid 3.2% y/y gain (median same) in the with-bonus average household earnings figure for the three months to September. Such an outcome would be a reminder that the BoE still remains headed for a tightening, barring any fresh emerging market crisis. This, in turn, would help give Cable a cushion, which was crushed on the final two days of last week as Fed and BoE policy paths diverged.

China: October CPI and PPI (Tuesday) will be of interest. The former is seen at 1.4% y/y from the prior 1.6% outcome. The latter is projected dipping to -6.0% y/y from September’s -5.9% reading. Tuesday also brings October lending indicators. October industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast at 5.6% y/y from 5.7% in September, while October retail sales (Wednesday), are penciled in at 11.0% y/y from 10.9%. October fixed investment dat a is also due during the week, and is expected to fall to 10.1% y/y from the prior 10.3%.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the October employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k rise in jobs following the 5.1k drop in October. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.2%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is expected to rise 1.0% in September after the 2.9% gain in August, as low rates continue to underpin housing. ANZ job ads are due on Monday, and we expect ads to rise 2.0% in October after the 3.9% gain in September. There is nothing from the RBA this week. The minutes to the November meeting are due next week.

Japan: In Japan, the September current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen bouncing to JPY 2,000 bln, after falling to JPY 1,653.1 bln in August from July’s JPY 1,808.6 bln. September machine orders (Thursday) are forecast rebounding 2.0% m/m, from the prior 5.7% drop. October PPI (Thursday) is seen at -3.4% y/y from -3.9% in September. The September tertiary index (Friday) likely rose 0.2% m/m after edging up 0.1% in August. Revised September industrial production is also due Friday, and is seen unchanged at 1.0% y/y.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:10 pm
Date : 10th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th November 2015.




The USD, over the last 5 trading sessions, has out-preformed its peers as markets adjust to expectations that the U.S. Fed will begin to introduce a gradual rate raising policy, beginning in December. The atmosphere moving forward for the markets is fast shifting from a “will there be a rate hike?” to a “how much of a rate hike is expected?” approach.

The USD traded mostly mixed on Monday. For the most part, it was a risk off session with U.S. markets selling off on Monday in what appears to be a delayed reaction to the increased odds of a December Fed rate hike. This is supported by the strong U.S. jobs report that was released on Friday.

Overnight, FX action gave little direction in currency markets, which were largely unaffected by the biggest drop on Wall Street in six weeks and mostly lower stock markets in Asia, nor by data showing a sub forecast Japanese current account surplus, and a further slowdown in Chinese inflation.



EURUSD, Daily

The surprise increase in the U.S. jobs report, and the fact that the E.U. continues to provide hints that they will increase QE, is supporting the ongoing trend for a shift out of the EUR and into the USD. Since price broke the 1.0810 support now turned resistance, but failed to touch the 1.0660 next relevant support level, this leaves me with the view that price may attempt to trace out a short term measured move higher to create a new lower top below 1.0870 before we see a test of the April 21 low (1.0660). The risk however, with this type of trade set-up, since momentum analysis remains firmly to the downside, is that we cannot rule out any sudden sharp declines if price fails to make any progress towards the 1.0810 area.

FX Pair : EURUSD
Supports: 1.0810/1.0660
Resistances: 1.09/1.11



GBPJPY, Daily

GBPJPY has been in a recovery from 180.60′s lows through last Thursday’s recovery high at 187.68. Upside price potential looks limited in the short term to 188.00, since price remains above the valid upward slopping trend line with buyers emerging to support price after a touch of the 50 SMA. Although stochastic momentum analysis may be slowing, the macro environment does support GBP strength and a weaker JPY since for the foreseeable future the BoE and BoJ have contrasting monetary policies.

FX Pair : GBPJPY
Supports: 183.88
Resistances: 188.00

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

China CPI slipped to a 1.3% y/y pace in October, from 1.6% y/y in September, modestly slower than forecast. The inflation index is down from 2.0% y/y in August. Excluding food and energy, CPI fell to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.6% in September and 1.7% in June, July, and August. For the month, October CPI fell 0.3% from 0.1% in September. October PPI was unchanged at a -5.9% y/y rate for a third straight month, and has eroded from -4.6% y/y in the spring. The index has been in negative territory for an unprecedented 44 consecutive months. The weakening trend in inflationary pressures, along with the declines in trade, have increased hope and speculation of additional stimulus. Chinese shares are lower after 5 days of gains.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren: it could be appropriate to hike in December if the economy continues its gradual improvement, while there’s been real improvement in the economy since the October meeting. In particular, the October jobs report was very good news including the reduction of labor slack and it’s reasonable to ask whether current stimulus is still necessary as the worst of the Fed’s September global outlook and market concerns haven’t materialized. He sees a gradual rate hike cycle as needed to “probe” labor markets, while assessing the Fed’s new tools and analyzing their effects. He believes that domestic demand will help offset dollar strength and sees above-potential growth ahead. Coming from one of the more dovish Fed members, this suggests few impediments remain for a December hike.

OECD trimmed its global growth outlook again in its twice annual review amid concerns over weakness in emerging markets (especially citing recessions in Brazil and Russia, and the slowdown in China). The organization now pegs world growth at 2.9% for 215 and 3.3% for 2016, versus prior forecasts of 3.0% and 3.6%, respectively, from September. However, the U.S. expansion remains on track with a 2.4% GDP growth rate for this year, accelerating to 2.5% in 2016, and dipping back to 2.4% in 2017. The Euro-area is expected to grow at a 1.8% clip next year and 1.9% in the following year, with Japan seen at 1.0% in 2016, but slowing to half that in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US Wholesale Trade: September wholesale trade data is out today and should reveal a -0.3% (median -0.2%) headline for the month with the accompanying inventory component remaining unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.31 in August. Other measuers of inventories were softer in September and we saw factory goods inventories down 0.4% with shipments down 0.4% as well and orders down 1.0% for the month.

US Import and Export Prices: October trade price data  is expected to show import prices down 0.1% (median -0.1%) with export prices down 0.2%. Apart from gains during May and June around the rebound in oil prices both the import and export price indexes have posted negative readings for the past year. Despite some slight rebound in oil prices in October prices still remained at depressed levels which will likely continue to weigh on the release.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Nov 11, 2015 3:21 pm
Date : 11th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th November 2015.


WEAK UK WAGE DATA WEIGHING ON GBP



GBPUSD, 240 min

UK unemployment unexpectedly dropped to a new cycle low of 5.3% in September data, down from 5.4% in August and July’s 5.5%. The consensus had been for an unchanged 5.4% reading. This takes the jobless rate further south of the BoE’s NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) threshold of 5.5%. The employment rate, meanwhile, rose to 73.7% the highest since records began in 1971.

Despite this, wage data disappointed: the ex-bonus average household pay packet rose 2.5% y/y in the three months to September, down from the 2.8% increase of August, while the with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y, unchanged from August and shy of the median forecast for 3.2%. The weaker wage data has been the main takeaway for markets, with sterling trading weaker in the wake of the release, though with inflation fractionally negative, incomes continue to trend firmly upwards in real terms. The October claimant count has been somewhat overshadowed on this occasion, coming in with a rise of 3.3k, slightly worse than the 1.4k median forecast. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 2.3%.

GBPUSD is trading just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level after it reacted lower from the proximity of 1.5197 resistance level. It is trading near the upper 4h Bollinger Bands while the 30 period SMA and a consolidation from yesterday appears to give some support. Even though the market turned lower before hitting my intended shorting level I am still looking for short signals at or near 1.1597 resistance (coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level) with an aim to cover the trade near 1.5060 level.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:57 pm
Date : 13th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th November 2015.




AUDUSD outperformed on a solid employment report out of Australia yesterday. While the credibility of the data has been called into question by at least some economists, few doubt that the validity of the underlying trend. The employment report showed a rise of 58.6k, nearly triple the median forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2%. The details of the report were encouraging, including labour participation, aggregate hours worked and back revisions. This report together with some longer term technical factors has caused the 5-day return in AUD to beat most of the counterparts. More on technical in the following pages.



AUDUSD, Daily

While AUDUSD is still inside a weekly long term bearish regression channel (drawn from June 2014 high to the August 2015 low) the price action is suggesting that the bears are getting weaker. There is already one weekly higher low in place which was followed by a higher high. These are signs of the selling pressure turning into a more balance supply and demand dynamic. In March this year I said in the HotForex Global Trends report that divergence between the Fed and RBA rates policies is still rather clear and should pressure the pair towards the 0.7269 support. I also expected the AUDUSD to bottom out in the range between 0.64 and 0.72. The pair indeed dived further and has now reached the levels anticipated in my report. The August low is inside this range and therefore the recent price action is not that surprising.

The daily chart suggests the pair has the line of least resistance below the current price but the 0.7067 support isn’t that far. There is pivotal resistance at 0.7136 while the upper end of the short term regression channel coincides with it. The 50 day moving average above the current market price adds to the technical factors providing resistance. I makes sense to look for sell signals around a resistance but the less negative weekly picture and strong recent employment figures together with the fact that US Dollar index is near an important resistance are risk factors for a short trade from the current levels. I’m looking for sell signals between 0.7194 and 0.7222.



EURAUD, Daily

EUR has found some support against the dollar over the last few days. This however, hasn’t stopped its slide against the AUD and the EURAUD pair is once again moving lower after brief rally yesterday. In the longer term picture the current trading levels coincide with a major support visible in the weekly picture. The 1.5105 level used to resist price advances in December 2015 and July 2015. Yesterday’s trading found a low at a 30 week SMA and caused the market to rally and create a bullish pin bar. This move however hasn’t had any follow through. I expect the market to move towards the 1.4987 low today while an intraday support at 1.5071 could slow it down. The nearest resistance area is between 1.5168 and 1.5303 while the next support after yesterday’s low is at 1.4877.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

German Q3 GDP slowed to 0.3% q/q, from 0.4% q/q in Q2, in line with expectations. The working day adjusted annual rate improved to 1.7% y/y from 1.6% y/y. There is no full breakdown with the preliminary numbers, but the statistics office said in its press release that growth was mainly driven by private and public consumption. Investment seems to have contracted slightly and there was a negative contribution from net exports, as import growth outstripped export growth. So for once a consumption driven economy, not the usual export led growth pattern. This clearly is also due to the ECB’s ultra-accommodative policy, that is also causing problems for banks and insurers, but also households forced to increase private pension provisions.

Bullard and Lacker look for higher rates. Lacker: the case for raising rates is “strong”said the Fed hawk, who dissented at the last two meetings against the consensus to keep policy on hole. He acknowledged to reporters that his “dots” are higher than the FOMC median, something we had already surmised given his very public hawkish stance. On the policy path, he added that the “gradual” pace is just an expectation and warned the FOMC could change its mind. He worries that the Fed could get into a rut of 25 bp hikes per meeting. He, of course, rotates out of voting status next year, but will be replaced by three other kestrels, including Bullard, Mester, and George. Bullard: a shallower tightening path is likelycompared to 1990s or 2000s, said the St. Louis Fed president, dependent on the economy — steeper if it booms. G7 nations as a whole, however, are still a ways away from normalizing and near zero rates appear to be the norm there for at least a couple of years. The Fed will rely on the usual metrics for each hike, including whether the labor market becomes very tight. He sees the debate over the Fed role as healthy given the large one it played in response to the financial crisis. This is about par for moderate Bullard, again focusing more on the longer-term.

92% of economists surveyed expect a December Fed hike according to the latest WSJ survey published, barring a cataclysmic event of some sort. 5% see the Fed remaining on hold until March and 3% see ZIRP for longer than that. Back in October 64% of those surveyed saw a December hike. It seems Janet and company have done their guidance job well, backed up by the October payrolls report, though this leaves their credibility at stake on December 16 to follow through this time.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI: October PPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.2%) headline for the month with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) This follows respective September figures of -0.5% for the headline and -0.3% for the core. Declining oil prices have weighed on the various inflation measures over the year but they appear to have leveled off in recent months and even posted a small gain in October which should allow for headline increases.

US Retail Sales: October retail sales will be released today and the headline is expected to be up 0.4% (median 0.2%) with the ex-autos rate up 0.5% (median 0.4%). There is upside risk to the release from the firm vehicle sales data, improvements in consumer confidence and the bounce in construction hours worked that we have seen in October. This should be enough to offset the potential downside from slightly slower chain store sales.

US Business Inventories: The September business inventory data is out on Friday and should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) figure for inventories with shipments flat as well. This comes on the heels of respective August figures which had inventories unchanged and shipments down 0.6%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.37 from August, prior to that the ratio had held at 1.36 since March.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:09 pm
Date : 17th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th November 2015.




The AUD trades largely higher against other major pairs, after the RBA left its cash rate steady at 2.0%, meeting expectations. The RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.

The EURUSD trades at a multi month low of 1.0643, as the USD makes fresh advances, with some safe-haven flows into the USD seen against the EUR in particular, following the terror attacks in Paris. The USD also trades higher versus NZD, the CHF and the CAD, as the Fed has indicated in recent weeks that it’s inclined to begin liftoff next month.

The USDJPY is holding onto recent gains , with the focus now on the BoJ, whose Thursdays Policy meeting outcome will be more uncertain following the GDP data report yesterday, putting Japan back into a technically recession.

The USDCAD is stronger following much weaker Canadian manufacturing data, weak energy prices are also against the CAD, as WTI crude flirted with the $40/bbl mark, and commodities generally weakened on the back of a broadly firmer dollar.



EURUSD, Daily

The contrasting policy stances of the ECB and Fed should maintain the EURUSD pair downward bias. The recent recovery attempts were short-lived, reversing from near the 1.0810’s raises the fears of a further decline toward the 1.0600 (round number) before a retest of the April lows at 1.0520.

FX pair: EURUSD
Supports: 1.0600/1.0520
Resistances: 1.0830/1.0900 



GBPJPY, Daily (updated)

The GBPJPY has been trending higher and looks to continue the choppy recovery from the 180.60′s lows in the direction of 188 and 189.60-189.90′s further out. The current trending price move is also supported by the fact that the BoE has been hinting at a potential rate hike for some time, while the BoJ left policy unchanged, but the door remains open for QE, especially if growth falters.

FX pair: GBPJPY
Supports: 183.88
Resistances: 188.00

GBPUSD IN A SELL THE RALLIES MODE



Two days ago GBPUSD formed a narrow body candle at 1.5246 resistance. This bearish candle was followed by a down day and became a pivotal candle as a result. Today price has dipped below Friday’s pivotal candle low suggesting GBPUSD is in a sell the rallies mode in short term.  This view is confirmed by the price moving below a rising trend line. Price is now trading at lower 4h Bollinger Bands and could therefore react higher from here. If this corrective move takes place we should look for short trade signals between 1.5190 and 1.5230 with a view of looking to cover the shorts near November 6th low. Targets 1: 1.5130 and target 2: 1.5040.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Canada’s consumer confidence improved to 58.3 in week ended November 13, according to the Nanos Economic Mood Index. That follows a 58.3 figure in the prior week and leaves the strongest level since the 58.4 seen in the week ending October 17. The index slumped to 53.6 in the final week of February and was a run of 52 and 53 readings from late July through mid-September. But confidence has returned (although the index remains below the peak 60.6 seen in mid-July of 2014), which could be expressed through retail sales gains in Q4 as consumer spend gas price savings and take advantage of low interest rates.

Canada existing home sale rose 1.8% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted) following the 2.1% drop in September. Not surprisingly, sales strength was led by growth in Vancouver and Toronto. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins expressed confidence in the bank’s call for a soft landing in the housing sector, and this report does not present a new challenge to her view.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren leaned towards a quicker hike given risks like faster growth in commercial real-estate in a lengthy FT.com article over the weekend. Basically it is the old unintended consequences theory that might be forcing a stretch for yield or returns in a zero rate environment, as employment and inflation goals come within reach. He also said that the recent October jobs report was “pretty unequivocally positive,” though he was less certain about nascent signs of wage growth. Rosengren did hint that the policy divergence with other countries was boosting the dollar, though offset somewhat by domestic demand. If that divergence grew too far, however, it could imply a more gradual U.S. policy path than otherwise. Note, Rosengren is number 8 in terms of policy signaling, according to a WSJ survey.

Bundesbank cautiously optimistic on growth. The German central bank said in its latest monthly report that the labour market is in a “very good condition”, and that “the positive labour-market and wage outlook, as well as the strong immigration, create the conditions for spirited consumption in the economy to continue and for overall growth in the medium term to exceed potential”.

Main Macro Events Today

UK October CPI (Core Consumer Price Index) is released today. No change is anticipated and the figure is expected to come in at 1%.

German ZEW investor sentiment was expected to improve slightly to 5.0 (median 6.1) from 1.9 but mainly on the back of hopes of further stimulus measures, so the number itself would not remove pressure on Draghi to act again. There also is the risk of a downside surprise, as late responses will have been impacted by the Paris attacks, so uncertainty is higher than usual, as the number will depend very much on when the answers came in.

US CPI: October CPI is out today and should show a 0.1% (median 0.2%) headline increase with an accompanying 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This comes on the heels of a 0.2% headline decline in September and a 0.2% increase for the core in that month. Data in line with this forecast would leave the headline flat y/y and the core figure at 1.8% y/y.

US Industrial Production: October industrial production data should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) rate for the headline following the 0.2% decline in September and a 0.1% drop in August. The capacity utilization rate is expected to remain steady at 77.5% (median 77.5%) for a second month.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:21 pm
Date : 18th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th November 2015.


EURGBP TRADING AT SUPPORT



EURGBP, Daily

The pair is trading near the lower end of the a sideways move that started in March this year. This has been caused by a historical support from a multi-year sideways move between 2004 – 2007. Price has now reached a pivotal support created in the beginning of August this year. The range of this support area is 0.6937 and 0.6998 and has potential to turn the market higher.

As per Stochastics Oscillator EURGBP is oversold in weekly and daily time frames while in the 4h time frame it is just coming off the oversold area. The nearest daily resistance level (a low from November 5th) is currently at 0.7039, a level that coincides with the 30 period moving average while the upper end of the regression channel is not far either. We look for reversal signals at or inside the support range. In the case of successful long entry occurring the 0.7039 resistance works as a target one and 0.7108 as a target 2.

MACRO EVENTS & FOREX NEWS



FX News Today

ECB’s Mersch: No indication yet of economic pessimism after Paris. The Executive Board member said in a speech in Frankfurt that “we should shy away from drawing premature conclusions about whether the terror attacks will have any economic impact”, adding that “we have no indication of any economic pessimism as a result of the Paris attacks, let alone weaker hard data”. He warned that “doom-and-gloom talk is not warranted at this stage”. Clearly, with the attacks less than a week away, we don’t have any data yet that fully reflects the impact of the events and Mersch is right, it is too early to draw conclusions, even if markets seemed to stabilise relatively quickly. The fact that Bund futures dropped on the comments highlights though just how sensitive markets are to central bank remarks ahead of the December council meeting.

Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Chinese equities under pressure for a second day, after President Xi Jinping said the economy is facing “considerable downward pressure”. Japanese markets struggled to make headway as the Yen advanced. GBP is under pressure and the EUR is little changed against USD. Oil prices meanwhile are slightly higher.

US NAHB home builder sentiment index fell 3 points to 62 in November, from an upwardly revised 65 in October (was 64). It’s the first decline since May, but it’s from a post-recession high, with the 65 level the best since 2005. The current single family sales index dipped to 67 from 70. The future sales index dropped to 70 from 75. But the index of prospective buyers traffic rose to 48 from 47. Homebuilders continue to cite low inventories as problematic, while the stronger labor market and expanding economy are beneficial.

US industrial production slid 0.2% in October. Capacity fell to 77.5%. Those missed expectations. The 0.2% September decline in production was not revised, though August was nudged up to 0.1% from -0.1% previously. September capacity utilization was revised to 77.7% from 77.5%. Manufacturing improved last month, rising 0.4% after declines in June, August, and September. Motor vehicle/parts production picked up, rising 0.7%. Excluding vehicles/parts, manufacturing was up 0.4%. Machinery production increased 0.3%. Computer, electronics production was up 0.1%. Utilities slumped 2.5%, however, with Mining down 1.5%.

The 0.2% October U.S. CPI headline and core price gains both beat estimates, with little in the way of rounding errors from respective gains of 0.200% and 0.202%. We saw the expected small 0.3% energy price rise with a 0.2% food price gain, but medical care prices surged 0.8% alongside a firm 0.4% tobacco price rise.

Main Macro Events Today

US Housing Starts: October housing starts are out today and should reveal a 2.2% decline to a 1,180k (median 1,160k) headline from 1,206k in September.

US Building Permits: We expect permits to rise to 1,150k from 1,105k and completitions to edge up to 1,030k from 1,028k in September.

FOMC Minutes:  markets focus on the Fed minutes to find out clues on whether the Fed is still likely to raise rates in December and what might be the rate hike path in 2016.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:54 pm
Date : 9th December 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th December 2015.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

German trade surplus continues to widen.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 20.7 bln in October, up from EUR 19.2 bln in the previous month, as exports declined 1.2% m/m, which was counterbalanced by a 3.4% m/m drop in imports. Import numbers have been very volatile and as this is nominal data also driven by exchange rate and especially oil price developments. Unadjusted data show a trade surplus of EUR 208.8 bln in the first 10 months of hteyear, up from EUR 177.8 bln in the corresponding period 2014. The current account surplus widened to EUR 199.5 bln in the January to October period from EUR 168.8 bln last year. So Germany is likely to remain under attack for its widening trade surplus, despite the fact that for once overall growth is actually driven largely by consumption and domestic demand.

China’s CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y pace in November, slightly better than expected following the 1.3% y/y clip in October. The annual CPI growth rate had been slowing since seeing a year high 2.0% y/y rate in August (September was +1.6% y/y), and the pick-up in November suggests government stimulus efforts may have provided some lift to demand. The PPI fell 5.9% y/y in November, matching the rate of decline in October. China’s stocks are unchanged, while the Nikkei is down 1.1% and the Hang Seng is off 0.7%.

BoC Poloz downplayed the September GDP plunge, noting that it was driven by special factors. Notably, there was a fire in the oil sands that shut-down some production. That production was back on line in October, he noted. As for Q3, he reminded that the Bank projected it would be “puffed-up” by special factors, notably the child tax credit. Moreover, the weak hand-off to Q4 was also anticipated. They will review the Q4 projection for the January MPR. He reminded that “data do not go in a straight line.” These comments were consistent with his ongoing view that the economy is evolving roughly as they expected in October. In a separate answer, he counseled patience, saying that only half the impact of the policy action this year has been seen. Poloz shot down drawing any conclusion for the discussion of unconventional policy in today’s prepared remarks. “There is no need to contemplate these measures,” he said. He said all the ingredients for Canada’s recovery are in place. “We are not talking about doing that (lowering rates to the lower bound), we are making sure our tool kit is up to date,” he said. He said the bank would use unconventional again in the case of a major shock, such as was seen in 2008. On the growth trajectory, he added that “like we said last week and in October, the pieces are coming together.”

US JOLTS job openings fell 151k in October to 5,383k, following September’s 157k rebound (revised from 149k). That caused the rate to dip to 3.6% from 3.7%. Hiring rose 57k to 5,137k after declining 1k previously (revised from -32k). The rate was unchanged at 3.6% (September was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 52k in September after falling 44k previously (revised from -51k). The quit rate was steady at 1.9%. The data are on the old side and won’t impact the FOMC, especially as the November jobs data revealed a solid round of numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Wholesale Trade: October wholesale trade data is out today and should show sales up 0.5% (median 0.3%) following a 0.8% drop in August. Inventories should be down 0.1% following a 0.5% addition in September. Data in line with these forecasts would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.31 for a third month from August.

• RBNZ rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the official cash rate today to 2.5% from 2.75% after the governor Wheeler repeated his comment that “some further easing in the OCR seemes likely”. However, as mentioned this is not the first time the governor says this.
 



Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Broj poruka : 246
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:09 pm
Date : 25th January 2016.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th January 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



United States: There are a number of important indicators due, including housing figures, PMIs, durables, and trade. But the Advance Q4 GDP print (Friday) may be the most interesting amid global worries over a worldwide slowing in growth. We are forecasting slippage to a 1.3% pace (median 0.8%), from Q2’s 2.0%, with erosion in consumption, fixed investment, and an inventory drawdown weighing. The November Case-Shiller and the FHFA home price indexes are slated for Tuesday, along with January consumer confidence and the Markit services PMI. New home sales for December (Wednesday) are forecast rising to 0.500 mln. The usually volatile durable goods report (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.5% following the unchanged November print. Also on Thursday are weekly initial jobless claims and December pending home sales. Along with GDP on Friday, there’s the report on Advance trade in goods, Q4 ECI, the January Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

Canada: In Canada, the economic calendar moves to the slow lane this week after last week’s thrill ride of dueling projections for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) announcement and the full slate of November growth data and the December CPI. We receive the final word on November’s total growth performance, with November GDP (Friday) seen expanding 0.3% after the flat reading in October. The industrial product price index (Friday) should reveal a 0.5% drop (m/m, nsa) in December after the 0.2% drop in November, as weaker energy and commodity prices weigh. Further deprecation in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar could provide a boost to the IPPI however, and is the main upside risk to our projection. Meanwhile, the IPPI is expected to post a 0.9% y/y rate of increase in December after the 0.2% drop in November. A difficult comparison with a sharply lower December of 2014 index level is to blame. The report will not challenge the BoC’s view that the underlying inflation backdrop remains tame as the economy operates below potential output. The January CFIB Business Barometer small and medium business outlook survey is due (Thursday), which will provide an early look at conditions in the new year. The Bank of Canada takes a breather from events this week. Nothing is on the docket until February 8, when Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech in Montreal. 

Europe: Data releases this week will bring more economic sentiment data as well as preliminary January inflation numbers. The latter should show an uptick in headline rates, but even if the overall Eurozone HICP number will rise to 0.4% y/y (med same) as expected, it would still remain at very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. The overall EMU CPI number on Friday will be preceded by preliminary German HICP on Thursday, seen also rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y and preliminary French readings (Friday), expected to show a rise in the headline rate to 0.5% y/y from 0.3% y/y. We were looking for a dip in the German Ifo Business Climate reading (today) to 108.5 from 108.7 but the actual figure was even weaker and came in at 107.3. We also expect to see a decline in the ESI Economic Sentiment (Thursday) to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8. Inflation projections may be revised down, but interestingly, so far growth projections have been left largely untouched, highlighting that it is the falling oil prices that is having the largest impact on price developments once again. Finally German GfK consumer confidence is seen falling to 9.3 from 9.4. With the focus firmly on future world growth GDP readings for Q4 2015 should not change the ECB’s stance significantly, but preliminary French and Spanish data on Friday will still attract some attention and we are looking for growth rates of 0.2% q/q and 0.8% q/q respectively. Data releases also include Eurozone M3 numbers on Friday, French consumption, Italian orders and business confidence, German retail sales and import price inflation. 

United Kingdom: The calendar this week features the January CBI surveys, for industrial trends (today) and distributive sales (Friday), the first estimate of Q4 GDP (Thursday), and the January Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday). The data are collectively likely to fit the later-rather-then-sooner view with regard to the BoE’s course to rate lift-off after a near seven-year hiatus. We expect the CBI’s industrial trends survey to dip to -10 (median same) in the headline total orders balance, down from -7 previously. The CBI’s sales survey has us anticipating an +18 outcome in the headline realized sales balance, slightly off the +19 outcome seen in the prior month. We expect Q4 GDP to lift to 0.5% q/q (median same) from 0.4% in Q3, and Gfk sentiment to dip to 1 from 2.

China: China’s calendar is virtually empty, with just leading indicators that are due on Thursday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by CPI (Wednesday), expected to slow to a 0.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from the 0.5% rate of expansion in Q3. CPI is seen running at a 1.5% y/y pace in Q4, matching the growth rate in Q3. Core inflation measures are seen as slowing slightly: The trimmed mean is expected to slow to a 2.0% pace in Q4 from 2.1% in Q3 while the weighted median is projected at a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 2.2% in Q3. Trade prices are also due (Thursday), with import prices expected to fall 1.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.4% gain in Q3. Export prices are projected to tumble 3.0% in Q4 after the flat reading in Q3. The RBA is on the final week of its customary intermission from appearances or events during January, with the February 2 meeting the next event on their calendar. The RBA left rates at 2.00% in the December 1st meeting, and our base case is for steady policy to begin the new year. The modest slowing projected in total and core CPI measures for Q4 would be supportive of no change in policy at the February meeting.

Japan: The BoJ meeting highlights Japan’s busy calendar. While we expect the Bank will remain in “wait and see mode” until March at the earliest, the slowing in its giant neighbor and the disinflationary effects of weaker oil prices and a stronger yen, could accelerate further easing moves. And this week’s data will be important for policymaker deliberations. The calendar kicks off with the December trade report, that showed country’s exports fell by 8% in December. November revised leading and coincident indices were also published today, both declining slightly from the previous number. December services PPI (Tuesday) is seen slipping to a 0.1% y/y rate from 0.2% in November. December total retail sales (Thursday) are forecast to have rebounded 0.1% y/y from a revised 1.1% drop in November, while large retailer sales are seen up 0.1% y/y from the prior revised dive of 1.6%. The remainder of the calendar is due Friday. December national CPI is expected to slow slightly to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% on an overall basis, and remain steady at 0.1% y/y on a core basis. January Tokyo CPI is seen unchanged y/y overall, matching the December outcome, and up 0.1% y/y on a core basis, also unchanged from the previous month. December unemployment should remain flat at 3.3%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is also seen steady at 1.25. December personal income is due, as is December PCE, with the latter expected to improve slightly to -2.6% y/y from November’s -2.9% reading. Preliminary December industrial production is penciled in at -0.5% y/y from -0.9%, while December housing starts are seen easing to 0.7% y/y from 1.7%. December construction orders are also on the docket.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Broj poruka : 246
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Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:14 pm
Date : 26th January 2016.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th January 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

The Shanghai Composite has plummeted, presently showing a 6.5% loss in late PM session there, and the tech-laden Shenzhen Composite is off by 7.2%. The losses come with oil prices extending yesterday’s 5%-odd declines, with NYMEX crude down by another 2.5%-plus. Stock investors’ concerns haven’t been assuaged by the PBoC’s continued liquidity injections into the financial system, which was today CNY 440 bln via reverse repurchase agreements today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 2.35%, though some markets in the Asia-Pacific region managed gains, most notably Australia, where the ASX 200 closed with a 1.8% gain (though that was before the worse of China’s losses).

ECB’s Draghi earlier spoke on the uncertain 2016 global outlook, which has been a challenge to ensure that headwinds from it do not blow the domestic recovery off course. He said the ECB is doing its part to secure a cyclical recovery by fulfilling its price stability mandate, but to turn it in to a structural recovery others have to do their part. This involves action on the fiscal front, structural reforms and reducing the debt overhang. For the ECB the key has been about credibility and the bank will meet its objective. With the markets now expecting Bazooka II in March, however, he will still have his work cut out.

FOMC meeting to go ahead as planned Tuesday and Wednesday, announced the Fed. Those policymakers who will be unable to attend in person due to the blizzard can take part via a video conference. Washington, D.C. remains shut today due to the storm. Any releases scheduled for today will be postponed until the next business day government offices are open.

US Producer Sentiment Remains Depressed in January. We’ve seen divergent swings in early month sentiment measures, with the Empire State plunging to a post-recession low and the Philly Fed edging up to a still negative -3.5. Their ISM-adjusted measures followed the headlines thanks to big divergent swings in shipments, though we saw the opposite divergent swings in the jobs components around weak levels. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to hold steady at just 50 for a fifth consecutive month, as the factory sector remains under pressure.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing index dropped to -34.6 in January, sliding another 13.0 points after plunging 16.7 points to -21.6 in December (revised from -20.1). It’s a 13th straight month in contractionary territory, and the lowest since April 2009, as the collapse in oil prices weighs.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Governor Carney speech. We look forward to Carney’s commentary on the back of our expectation the BoE to hike the repo rate by 25 bp to 0.75% in  Q2 2016.  This would be the first policy change since March 2009, and the first hike since July 2007.

US January Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 97.0 from 96.5. This compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: upward, given the increase in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Confidence spiked last the winter as falling gasoline prices bolstered consumers but market volatility is now weighing on those gains.

US The November Case-Shiller index for November is expected to come in at 5.7%. Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.1% in October for the 20-City index. On an annual basis, the price index is up 5.5% y/y from 5.4% y/y in September.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:03 pm
Date : 28th January 2016.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th January 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

FOMC obviously left the funds rate range unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%. It downgraded the outlook on growth and inflation slightly, tacitly acknowledging the various risks that have cropped up since the last meeting. But the statement wasn’t necessarily as dovish as the markets had hoped. The statement did repeat that global economic and financial developments are being closely monitored. The labor market continues to improve though net exports and inventory investment slowed. Of note, the Fed dropped the phrase that it is “reasonably confident” that inflation will reach the 2% target over the medium term. And it left out the balance of risks. The tone of the statement did not take a March hike off the table (that wasn’t really going to be the case) and it gives policymakers leeway to hike again in March. The vote was a unanimous 10-0.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.50%, matching widespread expectations. However, they took a dovish tact, saying “Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range.” The evolution of the economic data is key, with the bank concluding “We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” Recall that in December, when the rate was cut 25 bps, Wheeler was more balanced, saying the bank’s inflation objective could accomplished at the current (2.50% ) rate setting, while also assuring the bank will reduce rates further if needed. As for the New Zealand dollar, he opines that “A further depreciation in the exchange rate is appropriate given the ongoing weakness in export prices.”

Possible Russian coordination with OPEC was discussed at a meeting with Russian oil companies, according to a Reuters report citing the Russian Energy Ministry, which was related to unfavorable oil prices. There were similar noises yesterday about Iraq and Russia, but this seems to be adding amplitude to the oil rebound now and helping putting a bid in equities and dollar-yen.


Main Macro Events Today

German Prel Jan HICP is seen rising to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y, mainly due to base effects. This is likely to be mirrored by a similar rise to 0.4% y/y in the overall Eurozone number tomorrow. Still very low levels and far below the ECB’s definition of price stability.

EMU ESI: We had been looking for a modest decline in the European Commission’s ESI Economic Sentiment reading for the Eurozone to 106.6 (med 106.5) from 106.8, but after the weaker than expected Ifo earlier in the week and the weak Italian business confidence numbers yesterday the risk clearly is to the downside.

UK Domestic Product: the UK GDP numbers are out today and are expected to come in at 0.5% (previous 0.4%) QoQ and 1.9% (previous 2.1%) YoY.

US Initial Jobless Claims: are expected to be 280k in the week-ended January 23. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,195k for the week-ended January 16.


USDJPY UPDATE



USDJPY, Daily

The outflow of funds from China and into safe haven currencies like the JPY has helped to strengthen the Japanese Yen in recent weeks. However, JPY traders may now be beginning to shift attention to market speculation that the Bank of Japan may be potentially seeking further stimulus measures that may add some weakness to the JPY.

Technically, a fibonacci retracement (December High 123.55 – January 20th low 115.90) trade could be in play for projected targets at 119.70 and 120.70. My strategy for short term traders is as long as price can stay above the 118.00 support line to hold long positions for the above fibonacci retracement targets 119.70 (Target 1) and 120.70 (Target 2).



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:12 am
Date : 9th February 2016 (1st Report).

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German exports drop 1.6% m/m in December. With imports also correcting 1.6% m/m at the end of 2015, the seasonally adjusted trade surplus was left at EUR 19.4 bln, little changed from the November reading of EUR 19.7 bln. December numbers meant the total sa trade surplus amounted to EUR 59.4 bln in Q4 last year, down from EUR 61.7 in Q3 and that despite lower oil prices. The data highlights again that the German recovery for once is not export driven, but driven by consumption and domestic demand. However, how long this will be sustainable against global headwinds remains to be seen, especially as falling production will also leave its mark on the labour market.

German industrial production dropped 1.2% m/m in December. The November number was revised slightly higher to -0.1% m/m, but this doesn’t gloss over the fact that the drop at the end of last year was much more pronounced than expected. The mild weather is partly to blame, as it added to the 3.0% m/m drop in energy production, but capital goods and consumer goods production also dropped markedly. Together with the weakness in confidence indicators the numbers will add to concerns about the health of the German and Eurozone economies, especially as trade data showed falling exports.

Equity markets are weak. The German DAX closed with a 3.3% loss and below the 9000 mark yesterday, losses in Spain and Italy were even more pronounced, with banks in particular under pressure, also in Germany. The rout continued in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a 5.4% loss amid a stronger Yen and as oil prices fell below the USD 30 mark. The ASX fared better, but was also down 2.88%. The trust in the power of central banks to keep markets going is evaporating and financial companies in particular are under pressure as the focus turns to credit risks and profitability. Eurozone spreads widened sharply yesterday and Bund futures are likely to continue to underperform as concerns about the health of the currency union grows, and the fact that at the same time, EURUSD is now above the 1.12 mark is adding to Draghi’s problems. This risk aversion has driven money into JPY which is at the time of writing up by 2.6% against GBP and 2.3% against AUD. For more details and updated values see here.

BoC’s Lane: monetary policy can’t take the primary responsibility for maintaining financial stability. “Other, prudential, tools are required to build a resilient financial system…,” he continued. Fiscal policy may be called upon to provide stimulus when monetary policy could lead to financial vulnerabilities that macro prudential policy is unable to offset. This scenario is possible in a “situation of sustained weak aggregate demand,” he said. His speech, titled “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability – Looking for the Right Tools” broke no new ground in terms of the policy outlook, although his speech does give the Federal Government further cover for fast-tracked fiscal stimulus.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Trade Balance numbers for December are expected to come in at -10.4B compared to -10.6B in November. Shrinking deficit should translate into buying interest in Sterling.

US December JOLTS: The so-called Yellen’s favourite indicator for Job Openings and Labour Turnover Surveys is expected to drop slightly from 5.43M to 5.41M.

US Wholesale Trade: Wholesale sales are expected to fall 0.5% in December, while inventories Grow 0.1%. Data in-line with our forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.32 in November. Forecast risk: downward, given the still negative data from December durables.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:16 pm
Date : 10th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative on rates. It would be a “daring, but appropriate” move that would speed up the attainment of a 2% inflation rate, he said. He broached that idea back in October. While the Fed could discuss negative rates at its March meeting, especially after the BoJ’s surprise move, we suspect adopting such a policy would be a very last-ditch effort to address a deep contraction in the economy. At this point we’d view any public comments more as lip-service to indicate there are more tools in the stimulus bag that could be used. However, it’s not obvious to us that negative rates would be a solution,

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5% from 2.2% previously thanks to the wholesale trade report, actually above the median Blue Chip economist forecast of 2.3% for a change: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on February 9, up from 2.2 percent on February 5.

The US wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. We still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast.

US JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k following a 3k November decline to 5,346k (revised from an 82k gain to 5,431k). The JOLTS rate climbed to 3.8% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). Hiring increased 105k to 5,361k following an 88k gain to 5,256k (revised from 5,197k). The rate was unchanged at 3.7% (November revised up from 3.6%). Quitters were up 196k to 3,055k after a 75k increase to 2,859k (revised from 2,831k). The quit rate, a favorite of Fed Chair Yellen, rose to 2.1% from 2.0%. The solid JOLTS report is consistent with the strength in the jobs report from Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

European Commission Economic Growth Forecast: DG ECFIN produces various economic forecasts on behalf of the European Commission. Economic forecasts concentrate on the EU, its individual member states, and the euro area but also include outlooks for some of the world’s other major economies, and countries that are candidates for EU membership.

Fed Chair Yellen’s Monetary Policy Report will be key for market direction for the foreseeable future. Her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET, after which she’ll testify before the House Financial Services Committee (from 10:00 ET). She’ll go in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The focus will be on the tone of her remarks, whether it’s dovish or not.

US Crude Oil Inventories: The number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms is released today. After previous two weeks’ rather high inventory numbers (7.8M) we should see the inventories at 3.1M level.  However, the actual numbers have lately deviated quite strongly from the analyst expectations.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:54 pm
Date : 16th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Stock markets continued to move higher in Asia, but with gains moderating after yesterday’s rally. The Nikkei is up 0.2% and the Hang Seng 1.23% on the day. US and UK stock futures are also higher. Risk appetite is reviving and Draghi’s remarks yesterday that the ECB is “ready to do its part” to boost the Eurozone are helping. Elsewhere RBA minutes left the door open to further easing. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end Nymex future is trading above USD 30 per barrel. The calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall into negative territory at -0.5%, down from 10.2% in January. The UK has inflation numbers, which are likely to remain benign. In Germany the ECB’s OMT program is once again under the scrutiny of Germany’s top court, who has to deliver its final verdict, after the European top court effectively backed the program.

The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent domestic data had, on balance, been positive and judged that there were reasonable prospects for growth to increase gradually over the forecast period while maintaining inflation close to target. Employment growth over 2015 had been stronger than earlier expected and the starting point for the forecast for the unemployment rate was around ½ percentage point lower. Inflation continued to be relatively low, with underlying measures of inflation at about 2 per cent over 2015. Growth in labour costs also remained quite subdued. Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting. Over the period ahead, new information would enable the Board to assess whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether recent financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand. Read more here.

ECB’s Deaghi said that the central bank “is ready to do its part” and will “review, and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.” He said much will depend on the “size and persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on wages and prices.” He argued that in light of recent financial turmoil “we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular banks.” Draghi gave away nothing new, leaving the door firmly open to more action but taking a cautious line ahead of tomorrow’s hearing of the OMT (outright monetary transactions) program before the German Constitutional Court (which could still throw a spanner in the works). He did, however, note “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy” and “intensified” turbulence in financial markets.” Draghi has been speaking before a European Parliament Committee.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation numbers are due today. The January Core consumer price index (YoY) is expected to come in at 1.3%, slightly below December figure of 1.4% while the headline inflation number (including food and energy) is expected to move up one tenth from 0.2%.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today. We expect ZEW to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Feb 17, 2016 4:18 pm
Date : 17th February 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

ECB’s Nowotny fretting over market expectations. The Austrian central bank head said central banks must watch markets but not be guided by markets and told Swiss financial website Cash that he is concerned market expectations ahead of the March 10 meeting could become as excessive as in December, when expectations had “lost touch with reality”. Nowotny added that the turbulence in global markets is mainly driven by emerging market developments, an sovereign funds aiming to ensure liquidity. He admitted that market turmoil constitutes “a massive destruction of value, which is very negative for overall sentiment”. However, Nowotny stressed that monetary policy can only improve conditions for growth and was very successful in preventing deflation and keeping credit markets intact, but that actual investments have to be made by investors.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren said the Fed would be “in no rush at all” to hike rates if US inflation does not rise and would cut rates if missing 2% growth, unemployment rising and significant weakening in U.S. labor markets was seen. That’s about par for the course from the regional Fed president. Fed’s Kashkari said that staff will continue to analyze NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) as a potential policy tool, while noting that global economic and financial developments will be important inputs at the March FOMC. That said, the Fed expects a gradual increase in interest rates to be the base case. The Fed still seems quick to deny NIRP, while mulling its options for the timing of a second hike.

A third of energy companies could go bankrupt according to a report released by Deloitte, as credit risk zooms to a record high as low commodity prices cut access to cash and debt. “The roughly 175 companies at risk of bankruptcy have more than $150 billion in debt, with the slipping value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales further hindering their ability to generate cash. These companies have kicked the can down the road as long as they can and now they’re in danger of kicking the bucket, said William Snyder, head of corporate restructuring at Deloitte, in an interview. ‘It’s all about liquidity,'” noted a Reuters report.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for clues on Fed’s thinking last month. However, the report will be a little out of date following Yellen’s testimony last week, and given the volatility in the markets since the policy meeting. Indeed, recent events have taken a March rate hike off the table, and have pretty much pushed out the next tightening into later in the year. Nevertheless there were a couple of interesting changes in the policy statement which will make for a worthwhile read, and especially the discussions on growth, inflation, and the importance of international developments. First the Fed downgraded its growth outlook somewhat, so we’ll look to specifics on the extent of policymakers’ worries over growth. Additionally, the FOMC revealed diminished confidence that inflation would be picking up toward the 2% target over the medium term, and it will be interesting to see how widespread that angst was. Also, the Fed removed its “balance of risk” stance as it wanted to monitor global economic and financial developments for guidance.

US Industrial Production: January industrial production is out today and should reveal a flat (median 0.3%) headline following the 0.4% decline in December and the big 0.9% drop in November. Despite some rebound in manufacturing employment, hours worked declined 0.2% in January and mining sector data continued to face headwinds from the drop in oil prices. Capacity utilization should tick down to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5% in December.

US Produces Price Index: January PPI data is out Wednesday and is expected to reveal a 0.1% (median -0.2%) decline for the headline with the core index up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This comes on the heels of respective December figures of -0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. Oil prices declined further through January which should continue to weigh on price measures.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:19 pm
Date : 18th February 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

China’s CPI improved to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in January, slightly slower than expected following the 1.6% y/y rate of increase in December. CPI is gradually accelerating, with January’s growth rate the fastest since August of 2015’s 2.0%. PPI improved to a -5.3% y/y rate of contraction, nearly as expected following the 5.9% y/y rate of decline in December. The climb in annual CPI growth (albeit to still modest rates) and reduction in the pace of PPI decline suggests there could be some stabilization in China’s economy, although policy makers have a long way to go to tame overcapacity.

Australia’s unemployment rate climbed higher in January as full-time employment disappointed and dropped most for three years. This is seen signaling diminishing stimulus from record-low interest rates and a weaker currency. Jobless rate rose to 6% from 5.8% while markets expected the rate to be 5.8%. Employment fell 7,900 from December while consensus forecast was a 13,000 gain.

FOMC minutes: “many” were concerned over increased downside risks, especially amid uncertainties over economic conditions abroad, financial market stability, and inflation. That uncertainty was a large part of the decision not to assess the balance of risks. Further tightening of financial conditions could amplify the downside risks, while recent developments suggested risks were no longer balanced. The minutes noted the encouraging signs in the labor market, but data on spending and production were disappointing. Additionally, oil and commodity price declines and the firmer dollar were seen keeping inflation low over the near term. And there was a wide range of outlooks for the medium term, with recent developments having “many” now seeing a more uncertain outlook on prices, with risks pointed to the downside. The slowdown in China was seen impacting emerging markets, and together could lead to more of a drag on the US There weren’t any major surprises in the minutes given what had occurred prior to the January 26, 27 meeting, and the subsequent policy decision/statement.

Saudi Arabia’s credit rating was cut to A- from A+ by S&P amid the rout in oil, with the outlook revised to “stable” from “negative.” This is the second cut in 6 months as the rating was trimmed to A+ from AA- in late October. The ratings agency said “The decline in oil prices will have a marked and lasting impact on Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and economic indicators given its high dependence on oil.” Oil was trading near $50 at the time of the October review.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: are due today and contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It’s followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations.

US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of February 13th should reveal an increase in the headline to 274k (median 275k) from 269k last week and 285k in the week before that. Claims data is typically volatile through the holiday season but as we begin to move past that we expect to see the February average improve to 273k from 284k in January and 277k in December.

US Philadelphia Fed Index: February Philly Fed is out today and should reveal a headline increase to -3.0 (median -2.8) from -3.5 in January. The already released Empire Stateindex for February had the headline at a still negative -16.6 from -19.4 in January but the ISM-adjusted measure managed a stronger rebound with a rise to 47.1 from 43.4. Despite the improvements we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to remain at 49 in February, steady from January and matching the three year low for this measure.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:03 am
Date : 23rd February 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Sterling has taken a beating, losing 2% to the dollar, while the currency’s six-month implied volatility shot to 12%, the highest since Nov 2011. It’s all about Brexit, with the debate now very much in full swing following the weekend announcement that the in-out referendum will be held on Jun-23, which in turn followed PM Cameron’s obtainment from Brussels of revised terms of EU membership. The big kicker was London mayor Boris Johnson, who yesterday detonated a bombshell of headlines by announcing that he will be backing the ‘out’ campaign.

Moody’s warned UK about Brexit “economic costs”, which it says will be greater than the “economic benefits, “and, in the event, said it would consider assigning a negative outlook on its Aa1 rating of UK sovereign debt unless the country “managed to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership.” Moody’s warned of a “prolonged period of uncertainty.” Cable’s Jan-22 low at 1.4202 looks more than likely to be breached, which would put sterling at the lowest levels since March 2009.

UK CBI industrial trends unexpectedly slumped in February to a -17 reading in the headline total orders reading, down from -15 in the month prior and off the median forecast for an improvement to -12. Among the components, export orders lifted to -19 from -22, but output expectations fell to +11 from +14 and selling prices dipped to -3 from -1. Sterling dipped to fresh lows in the wake of the data, though selling pressure is more to do with prevailing Brexit worries.

US Markit PMI fell to 51.0 in the flash February manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in January. It’s the lowest reading since October 2012 and was at 55.1 a year ago. The new order index slid to 51.7 from 53.6, and the order backlog reading dropped to its lowest since September 2009. The report is another reflection of the erosion in manufacturing. Indeed, Markit reported the slowdown was “overwhelmingly linked” to the softer underlying demand patterns, weaker business sentiment, alongside uncertainty regarding the general economic outlook. Weather was cited by only a small minority of participants.

US Chicago National Activity index rebounded to 0.28 in January from a revised -0.34 in December (was -0.22) and -0.39 in November (was -0.36). This breaks a string of 5 negative prints, and is the highest since July. Today’s data brought the 3-month moving average up to -0.15 from -0.30 (revised from -0.24) and -0.20 in November (revised from -0.19). This is a 3rd tier report that won’t really impact the markets.

Main Macro Events Today

German GDP: second release is expected to confirm the Q4 output at 0.3% (Q/Q) and 1.3% (Y/Y).

German IFO: sentiment index is expected to come in at 106.7, slightly below the 107.3 in January. January’s reading was a disappointment and was the weakest number since February last year. December was revise down to 108.6 from 108.7. Global concerns about the outlook for the world economy and falling oil prices clearly have hit German confidence.

US Existing Home Sales: January existing home sales are out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.7% headline increase to 5.500 mln (median 5.355 mln) clip for the month from 5.460 mln in December and 4.760 mln in November. The big November-December swing was driven by the implementation of new “know before you sign” regulation that pushed some November closings into December. There is some downside risk to the January headline as that effect unwinds.

US Consumer Confidence: February consumer confidence is out Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 98.5 (median 97.5) from 98.1 in January. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for February had the headline falling to 90.7 from 92.0 in January but the IBD/TIPP Poll for the month improved to 47.8 from 47.3 and the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average a slightly higher 44.4 from 44.3 in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:23 am
Date : 25th February 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th February 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Rumors China will boost its deficit spending for an additional 1% in GDP saw oil and equity prices surge higher, to the detriment of Treasuries. The S&P bounced back into the green after a better than 1% decline earlier and closed up by 0.44%, while WTI crude closed higher and is now trading near $32.00 again.

BoC Schembri: A resilient financial system could withstand a housing shock. He noted that public authorities have “taken appropriate measures to mitigate it.” And the vulnerability should stabilize as the economy improves, household incomes rise and interest rates normalize. He noted that the vulnerability associated with elevated household debt has been on the rise over the past decade. That debt has become more concentrated in highly leveraged households. Hence, the bank’s assessment hinges on both the magnitude of that debt and its distribution. Overall, there is nothing really new here, as the BoC continues to express confidence in the stability of the financial system and for a gradual, orderly resolution to currently elevated levels of household debt. In other words, based on their outlook, household debt is not going to hamper their ability to keep rates at currently lean levels for an extended period or to cut rates.

US New home sales fell 9.2% in January to a 494k rate from a 544k clip in December. February last year set a new high back to February ’08 and compares to a low of 270k in Feb. ’11. The headline was weaker than the median forecast of 520k. Sales climbed in the Northeast (3.4%) and South (1.8%), but fell in the Midwest (-5.9%) and West (-32.1%). The median sales price fell 4.5% to $278,800 from $295,800 (was $288,900).

US Markit services PMI fell 3.4 points to 49.8 in the flash February print, after dipping to 53.2 in January from 54.3 in December. Indeed, the index has been slipping since hitting 56.1 in November. This is the lowest reading since October 2013 while it was 57.1 a year ago. The employment component dipped to 54.2 from 54.3. The flash composite index slid to 50.1 in February from January’s 53.2, and is also the weakest print since October 2013. The headline drop into contractionary territory is bad news for the services sector, which has been a stalwart for the health of the overall economy and will exacerbate the erosion in equities and risk-off trades today.


Main Macro Events Today

UK GDP: YoY fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product from is out today. This is the second release and no change is expected from the previously published 1.9% number.

Eurozone CPI: no change is expected on today’s January YoY Consumer Price Index release from 0.4% change in December.

US January durable goods orders: expected to grow 2.0%. Shipments expected at 0.5%. Inventories expected to grow 0.1%. I/S ratio expected at 1.68, steady from December. Forecast risk: downward, as there was a decrease in Boeing orders in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:50 pm
Date : 1st March 2016. (First Report)

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 2.00%, as was widely expected. Policy remains, not surprisingly, data and event driven as the bank will follow new information to see if the improvement in the job market is sustainable and (repeating a key line from February) whether the “recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand.” Notably, Stevens now says “continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy” should that be needed to support demand. He said it “may” provide scope back in February. He was again largely constructive on domestic growth, saying that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened in 2015. On the exchange rate, he said it “has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook.”

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), restarted easing operations on Monday. The bank added approximately $100 billion worth of long-term financing into the Chinese economy to mitigate the pain from increased unemployment and bankruptcies in those industries that have been suffered from overcapacity. According to a statement on PBOC website the bank was cutting the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, by 50 basis points, taking the ratio down to 17 percent for the biggest lenders.

China’s manufacturing sentiment shrunk in February, adding to ongoing concerns over the pace of slowing in China’s economy. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in February from 49.4 in January. The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined to 48.0 in February from 48.4 in January.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed a sharp 8-point Chicago PMI February plunge to 47.6 alongside a 3-point uptick in the Dallas Fed index to -31.8 from a -34.6 expansion-low. We also saw a 2.5% January drop in the pending home sales index to a lean 1.4% y/y rise, which reinforces the view that housing sector growth is moderating despite a winter weather-lift. Yesterday’s figures counter Friday’s more encouraging reports that documented resilience in the US economy to the global growth pull-back.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU Unemployment Rate: So far the slowdown in confidence indicators hasn’t reached the labour market and jobless numbers continue to come down. We are looking for a further decline in the German sa number of 10K (median same) in February, which would leave the jobless rate unchanged at 6.2%. Eurozone January unemployment meanwhile is seen steady at 10.4%, with headline rates coming off highs, but disparities across countries remaining large and youth unemployment still much too high. With confidence indicators heading south and global headwinds getting stronger, it seems only a matter of time until the labour market starts to feel the chill.

Canada GDP: The Q4 and December GDP reports are due today. These two releases are the key reports in a busy week. December GDP is expected to moderate to a 0.1% m/m pace (median same) following the 0.3% gain in November. The separate real GDP measure is seen edging 0.3% higher in Q4 (median is for no change) after the 2.3% bounce in Q3. The reports will show a domestic economy that was limping along, yet still expanding, going into the new year.

US Manufacturing ISM: The February ISM is expected to decline to 48.0 (median 48.5) from 48.2 in January and 48.0 in December. Other measures of February producer sentiment have been mixed and despite some headline improvements the various components of the releases have remained weak which could spell downside risk for the ISM. Broadly speaking, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to decline to 48 for the month, a new cycle low, from 49 in January and 50 in December.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:17 am
Date : 2nd MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Swiss growth much better than expected at +0.4% q/q, up from -0.1% in Q3 (revised down from 0.0%). The median forecast had been for a 0.2% rise. The y/y figure was also +0.4%, down from 0.8% in Q3 but above the 0.1% median forecast. The jump in the franc in January 2015 following the SNB’s abandonment of its former cap, along with sluggishness in the Eurozone economy have been dragging on the Swiss economy, though the year finished well with the 0.4% growth the best quarterly performance of 2015.

ECB’s Draghi brandished his dovish bazooka again, noting that the bank’s policy review in March will be seen against the background of increased downside risks to the prior outlook and there “are no limits” to how far we are willing to deploy our instruments within our mandate to achieve our objective of inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium-term. Moreover, Euro area inflation dynamics continue to be weaker than expected. Speaking from Frankfurt, Draghi continues to keep expectations high for action in March, which helped relegate the already weak euro to session lows after being weighed firmer rounds of US data earlier.

The US February ISM rose to 49.5 (median 48.5) from 48.2 in January while US construction spending grew by 1.5% (median 0.5%) in January following a 0.6% (was 0.1%) pace in December and US Markit manufacturing PMI slid to 51.3 in the final February print, from 52.4 in January, though it improved slightly versus the 51.0 flash February reading. This just beats the all-time low of 51.2 set in December.

Canada’s real GDP grew 0.8% in Q4, contrary to expectations (median flat) following the revised 2.4% bounce in Q3 (was +2.3%, q/q saar). The separate December GDP tally showed a 0.2% gain (m/m, sa) that topped expectations (median +0.1%) after the 0.3% bounce in November. The BoC expected a flat reading for real Q4 GDP, so these reports further trim the chances for a near term rate cut from the bank. Note, however that trade made a sizable contribution to growth as exports fell by less than imports, consumption slowed and business investment contracted. So at first glance the dynamics of the Q4 report appear to be roughly in-line with bank projections. Yet these are better than anticipated reports overall, notably the December GDP gain that shows the economy with some momentum going into 2016.

Main Macro Events Today

Euro Area PPI: The Euro Area Producer Price Index (Y/Y) for January is released today and is expected to come in almost unchanged at -2.9%. December reading was -3.0%. This should put ammunition in the hands of the doves in the ECB.

US ADP Employment Change: The ADP unemployment survey for February is due today with an expectation of 195K new jobs against the previous number of 205K.

US Fed Beige Book: Traders look forward to this month’s Beige Book release as it is used by the FOMC to help in their interest rate decisions. In the previous release, the Philadelphia Fed stated that the economy was expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:23 am
Date : 3rd MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Caixin China Services PMI disappointed in February and came in at 51.2 while analysts expected a 0.2 point rise to 52.6 from January. Index is still an indication of expanding services sector but growth was modest and much weaker than the average growth in long term. The survey shows that contraction in the manufacturing sector can spill over into service sector. This could be a red flag for the government and push it to increase its stimulative efforts further. Chinese government has been trying to replace manufacturing and export with private consumption as a key driver for the economy.

Fed’s Beige Book reiterated growth expanded in most Districts, according to the report prepared by the KC Fed, with contacts generally optimistic over future economic growth. Consumer spending increased in most regions, but some weakness was noted in KC and Dallas. Auto sales remained elevated. Manufacturing was mostly flat, but conditions varied considerably across Districts. Most note weak demand originating from the energy sector, not surprisingly. Additionally, the stronger dollar and weaker global growth outlook were headwinds to exports. Nonfinancial services activity was up slightly, with demand for staffing services in the rise. Transportation was mixed. Residential real estate was mostly on the rise, while home inventories were low. Residential construction activity had strengthened. Nonresidential sales also improved. Labor market conditions continued to improve. Wage growth varied from flat to strong across the 12 Districts, and most noted consumer prices were holding steady.

SF Fed’s Williams said that domestic demand is overwhelming weakness from abroad and he sees the US service sector as the driver next year, while inflation should move back to 2% over the next couple years. He doesn’t see the stock market a good indicator of where the economy is going and doesn’t think that China will be a huge risk to the US economic outlook. Williams sees no tangible risk that the US will fall into recession and the Fed strategy of raising rates is the right one. He still sees some accommodation as needed, but over time favors normalization. This is in keeping with his more bullish view of the economy and consistent favoring of normalizing rates for this hawkish dove.

The 214k February ADP rise beat the analyst estimates. The mining-restrained 5k rise in February goods jobs included a big 27k increase for construction jobs follows yesterday’s solid construction spending report to signal encouraging prospects for that sector, though we saw a 9k drop for factory jobs. A stronger than expected 208k climb for service sector jobs explained the headline ADP overshoot, and countered fears of a weakening service sector. U.S. reports over the last week have largely countered the market narrative of a slowing economy despite the big hit to trade revealed in last Friday’s trade data.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU Final Services PMI: The Eurozone Markit Services PMI for February, is expected to be confirmed at 53.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Confidence has been coming off, although mainly in the manufacturing sector, which is more focused on global headwinds and slowing emerging market growth. The services sector continues to benefit from robust domestic demand and PMI levels suggest ongoing expansion, but growth momentum is clearly slowing down and even a better than expected number would do little to dampen demands for further easing from the ECB.

US initial jobless claims: Jobless claims are expected to be 270k in the week-ended February 27. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,229k for the week-ended February 20. Forecast risk: upward, as the end of the holidays should slow layoffs. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikess expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed.

US Factory Orders: January factory orders are expected to grow 2.0% with inventories down 0.2%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger topline durable inventory numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact the path of rate hikes.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:31 am
Date : 4th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

The AUD, NZD and emerging nation currencies gained ground against the USD, JPY and other currencies, continuing to outperform as stocks in Asia built on weekly gains, posting the best winning streak of the year in many cases. AUDUSD logged a three-month high at 0.7376, and AUDJPY a one-month peak. USDJPY, meanwhile, recouped to near 114.00 from the low 113s. EURUSD consolidated in the mid-1.09s after yesterday’s short-covering rally following above-forecast data out of the Eurozone. In the stock market realm, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.3% for the better, up by over 4% on the week, while the main Chinese indexes are set to make today the fourth consecutive daily gain. Oil prices have continued to consolidate the 30%-plus gains seen from January lows amid signs of an improving supply-demand balance. The PBoC’s cutting of its reserve requirement ratio for big commercial banks on Monday, expectations of more stimulus from the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, and encouraging data in the US this week, coupled with market-satisfyingly confident-but-cautious guidance from Fed policymakers have collectively underpinned the prevailing risk-on sentiment this week. Attention is now on today’s US payrolls report, which is expected to show a decent 190k headline gain.

Dallas Fed’s Kaplan sounded relatively dovish emphasizing patience on rate hikes and policy accommodation, especially relative to tighter global financial conditions so far this year. That said, he sees resilience in the US economy for 2016 with a 1.9% GDP forecast, once accounting for slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. As a Texas-based policy maker he sees potential ripple effects from weakness in the energy sector, though oil inventories may begin to fall by mid-2017. He also forecasts the jobless rate falling at a slower pace this year, though a low rate is more sustainable given global overcapacity. Kaplan said that inflation as tracked by the Dallas Fed ticked up in January, which bears watching. Markets remain inert ahead of payrolls.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed disappointments across the factory goods, ISM-NMI, and claims figures that trimmed prospects for both GDP and payrolls, though the pattern of upside surprises in US data over the past week remains intact despite today’s setbacks. The productivity report tracked estimates with welcome Q4 boosts in productivity and output alongside big downward bumps in Q3 and Q4 compensation that allowed a hefty trimming in Q3 and Q4 growth for unit labor costs.

Talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are on the table potentially in the first half of April, according to a Gulf OPEC delegate, but have not been formally set just yet. The source believes the meeting would likely be held in Doha, or some other Gulf city. A production “freeze” at elevated levels was agreed between the Saudis and Russia, but a wider agreement remains to be hammered out. Oil prices continue to consolidate gains in the meantime.

Main Macro Events Today

US Employment: February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as improving claims could provide a lift. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the path of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.6 from January. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.1% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

Canada Ivey PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to drop to 60.0 in February after jumping to 66.0 in January. The run-up in the January Ivey did not mean sentiment across Canada switched from mild pessimism in December to a level of optimism not seen since February of 2012’s 66.5 reading. Underlying not seasonally adjusted data typically sees big swings over November, December and January that are proving difficult to adjust in the seasonally adjusted series. That was likely again the case this time around.

Canada Trade: The trade deficit is projected to widen modestly to -C$0.8 bln in January (median -C$1.0 bln) from -C$0.6 bln in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. Imports are expected to rise 1.0% in January after the 1.6% bounce in December. Oil prices are a key risk, having plunged in January, which should weigh on import and export values.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:57 pm
Date : 8th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Fed governor Brainard noted some pick-up in inflation, in her comments on CNBC, with the core PCE rising to a 1.7% y/y pace in January. But that’s only one data point, she stressed, and she wants to see a pattern of increases moving toward the 2% target. Core inflation has also remained stubbornly low.

She believes there’s reason for price pressures to build, especially if oil prices stabilize, upward pressures on the dollar abate, and the firming economy boosts demand. But she also sees troubling signs that inflation has moved lower of late, as she noted various downside risks to growth from abroad. She abstained from giving signs on the timing of a hike, but emphasized the two Fed mandates of growth and stable prices, and noted that there hasn’t been much progress on the latter. That suggests she won’t vote for a hike next week, or in the near future. He comments were consistent with prior remarks.

Fischer: the Fed would prefer not to use negative rates, he said in Q&A. The FOMC has been looking at what other countries have been doing, in terms of employing various policy tools, and he noted that negative rates have worked somewhat better than expected. Additionally, it seems in his mind it’s a moot point as he indicated the US is not that far away on inflation, and he sees price pressures picking up once oil and the dollar stabilize.

US consumer credit rose $10.5 bln in January after a revised $21.4 bln surge in December (was $21.3 bln). November’s $14.0 bln increase was nudged up to $14.1 bln. Non-revolving credit remained the leader, climbing $11.6 bln compared to the prior $15.9 bln increase (revised from $15.4 bln). Revolving credit declined $1.1 bln versus the prior $5.5 bln gain (revised from $5.8 bln). It’s the first decline for that component since February 2015.

Main Macro Events Today

Final EMU Q4 GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected to be confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but is too backward looking to change the outlook. The focus will be on the breakdown, which is likely to show that domestic demand and consumption remain the mainstay of growth, but investment seems to be also picking up, judging by national data already released.

BoE Governor Carney Speech: Markets look forward to governor Carney’s speech in order to have clues on the banks future rates policy. We expect the BoE to stave off from hiking rates until Q4 2016 or Q1 2017. Continued disinflationary pressures along with slowing emerging market growth, together with abatement in domestic economic momentum, have been quelling BoE tightening ambitions.

BoC Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% policy rate. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firming oil and commodity prices and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.

Canada Housing Starts and Permits: We expect starts, due Tuesday, to improve to a 175.0k unit rate in February (median 182.5k) after the back to back declines in December to 172.5k and January to 165.9k from 212.0k in November.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Mar 09, 2016 4:36 pm
Date : 9th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

Stock markets continued to decline during the Asian session. Global growth concerns are once again hitting equity markets. In Europe, the Brexit debate is hanging over the UK and in the Eurozone investors remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, after the disappointment from December. Draghi is fighting a difficult balancing act while a deposit rate cut and a tweaking of the QE program seem almost certain, the question is if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat against resistance from the conservatives at the council. US equities ended yesterday in the red as the energy sector ended down by 4.2% and the financials dropped by 1.62%. News wasn’t particularly stock market friendly with Citi down 2.4% after the CFO forecasted a 15% drop in markets revenues in Q1 and 25% dive in investment banking revenues, along with a $400 mln charge for restructuring.

Energy Action: The EIA lowered its Brent oil price forecasts, now seeing a 2016 average of $34/bbl from its prior $37 estimate, and $40/bbl in 2017, down from $50. Brent futures are currently trading at $39.88/bbl.

China bad banks need a lifeline said a NPC delegate according to an article in the WSJ (subscription), in the form of fresh funds to help the resolve rising financial risks and absorb bad assets. The so-called “bad banks” were designated in 1999 to help shoulder $200 bln in bad debts from state lenders and buy bad assets at a discount before restructuring the companies and then selling the assets at a profit. The proposal is aimed at allowing them to go public and expand their asset purchases to help mop up “zombie companies.”

Canada housing permit values fell 9.8% in January after a revised 7.7% m/m gain (was +11.3%) in December. According to Statistics Canada, the pull-back in total permit values was due to lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in B.C. and Ontario, along with a smaller drag from institutional buildings in Quebec and Alberta. Permit volumes slowed to a 188.4k rate in January from the 217.2k clip in December.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Industrial Production: Industrial production numbers for January are out today and expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.4% in December. Industrial Production in the UK declined 0.40 percent YoY in December, following a 0.7 percent increase in November. December decline was the first contraction in 28 months and was mainly due to a decrease in manufacturing output.

US Wholesale Trade: U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: January wholesale trade data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.8% decline for sales with inventories down 0.2% (median -0.2%) for the month. This follows respective December figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would allow the I/S ratio to tick up to 1.33 from 1.32 where it held in both December and November.

BoC Rate Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% Bank of Canada policy rate in Wednesday’s announcement. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firmer oil and commodity prices relative to January and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:29 pm
Date : 10th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German trade surplus narrows as exports continue to drop. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.8 bln in January, down from EUR 20.3 bln in the previous month. The narrowing reflects a second monthly drop in exports, which fell -0.5% m/m at the start of the year. Imports meanwhile rebounded and rose 1.2% m/m in January, after falling -1.6% m/m in December. This is nominal data that is impacted by oil prices and forex developments, but it confirms the trend of growing imports and slowing export demand, which means the German recovery is for once not export driven, but supported by consumption and lately also investment.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut 25 bps to 2.25%, contrary to widespread expectations for no change. Rate cuts were anticipated this year, just not so soon. Today’s cut was due to a concern over eroding inflation expectations. And more could be in store: Governor Wheeler said “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. A further cut could come as early as next month on April 28.

China’s CPI accelerated to a 2.3% y/y pace in February from the 1.8% growth rate in January. While that left CPI expanding at the fastest pace since the middle of 2014, the gain was driven by food costs, which spiked higher during the week of Lunar New Year holidays. Colder weather also lifted food prices. Hence, the pick-up in the CPI growth rate should prove temporary. Underlying inflation remains tame, leaving ample leeway for the government to implement further monetary and fiscal stimulus this year. The PPI fell 4.9% y/y in February after the 5.3% drop in January, leaving the 48th consecutive decline.

There weren’t any real surprises from the Bank of Canada, as it left its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The key take-away from January, that risks to the inflation profile remained largely balanced, was repeated. Though the general tone of the announcement might have been a little more upbeat, there was still plenty of caution noted given downside global risks. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX was the global outperformer (excluding Italy), rising almost 0.7%, doubling the gain on Wall Street, thanks to its heavy weighting in oil and commodities.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB is widely expected to ease policy again today when updated set of staff projections will likely bring downward revisions to growth and inflation projections. A deposit rate cut of at least 10 bps together with the introduction of a tiered system to soften the impact is widely priced in. The ECB is also widely expected to widen monthly QE purchases but without a very large deposit rate cut or a change in the pool of assets, Draghi will eventually run into supply constraints, with German bonds the bottle neck the ECB has to funnel its monthly QE spending through unless the ECB abandons the rule of purchasing paper in line with the policy key. That, however, could be interpreted as outright state financing, and such a decoupling or too “exotic” moves could bring Draghi further into conflict with the Bundesbank, but refraining from radical steps risks disappointing markets.

US Jobless Claims: Weekly US Jobless Claims (expectations 270k) and Continuing Jobless claims (expectations 2,218K) have been following a volatile downward trajectory since early October of last year. Weaker than expected data will add to the slowing path of rate hikes, better than expected will add to the NFP figures from last Friday and increase speculation regarding a move by the FED next week.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:36 pm
Date : 11th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

ECB’s policy “bazooka” backfired at least yesterday, where a buffet of easing steps were at first embraced then later spurned by the markets. For a while it seemed like Draghi had found his magic touch again. By burying a rather modest deposit rate cut in a broad package of other stimulus package, including a new corporate bond purchase program, he managed to keep markets happy, bring in spreads and give stock markets a boost, but only for an hour or so. Peripheral government bonds, stressed banks and corporate bonds were the main beneficiaries. In the long run though Draghi’s eagerness to shield highly indebted countries and banks struggling with non-performing loans may come back to haunt the ECB and the Eurozone. It would appear Draghi did too good a job of signaling the moves in advance, which were clearly priced in, then followed by rapid unwinding on-the-fact. He also managed to confuse markets while he initially managed to bury the modest deposit rate cut in a host of other measures and implicit easing bias. He undid most of the good work by remarking that he doesn’t expect it to be necessary to cut rates again. Given the ECB’s track record, the only thing that means is that there won’t be another cut at the next meeting, and we would expect markets to settle down again today as the details of the stimulus package sink in. Today’s CPI number release from Germany won’t change the picture either as numbers were in line with expectations and mostly unchanged.

Japanese business sentiment deteriorated abruptly in the first quarter, the BSI Manufacturing Index indicated today. Financial market turmoil and slow demand globally had impacted negatively Japan’s flimsy economic recovery. The data pressures the policymakers to deploy extra stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is bordering on yet another recession. BSI Index measuring sentiment at large manufacturers came in at -7.9 in January-March, swinging from 3.8 in Q4 2015. BSI index is a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.

OPEC, Non-OPEC meeting unlikely to happen on March 20 as previously scheduled, as Iran has yet to agree to the oil production freeze, according to sources cited on Reuters earlier. That sure could explain the reversal in NYMEX crude into the red by -1.9% and back below $38 bbl to the $37.50 area.

Canada’s erosion in Q4 capacity use was not a surprise, as the drop to 81.1% in Capacity Utilization Rate fit with the already revealed slowing in real Q4 GDP growth to an 0.8% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.4% growth rate in Q3. Revisions were substantial in today’s report, but the pattern in 2015 remained intact: The post-recession Q4 2014 near term peak use rate was revised to 82.8% (was 83.3%), falling to 81.9% in Q1 (was 82.5%) and 80.5% in Q2 (was 81.4%) before rising to 81.6% in Q3 (was 82.0%).

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Employment numbers: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in February (median same at +10.0k) after the 5.7k drop in January. The year started out in a mess, with crude oil prices plunging and global growth worries intensifying. Against that backdrop, total jobs dipped. A less dire backdrop of firmer oil prices and markets that were not melting down is expected to lead to some optimism, lifting employment in February. But the resource and manufacturing sectors remained a drag, which may leave another disappointing report.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Trends in rig counts are significant clues for market participants in the oil and gas sector as they reveal the supply dynamics in the sector. Rig counts are reported week on Fridays. On March 7th the company announced that the international rig count for February 2016 was 1,018, down 27 from the 1,045 counted in January 2016, and down 257 from the 1,275 counted in February 2015. The worldwide rig count for February 2016 was 1,761, down 130 from the 1,891 counted in January 2016, and down 1,225 from the 2,986 counted in February 2015.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Mar 15, 2016 12:17 pm
Date : 15th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

The improvement in stocks has run out of steam, which should keep bond futures supported. Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down, stock futures in the UK and the US are also heading south, after the BoJ kept policy on hold, while offering a somewhat bleaker picture of the economy and highlighting that inflation expectations are weakening. The door to further easing remains open then, but the BoJ’s decision to stay pat for now, is likely to be mirrored by other central banks this week. The Fed starts its two day meeting today and SNB and BoE will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, with policy expected to be kept on hold, leaving the focus on statements.

RBA – Upbeat on jobs but does not rule out rate cut. The Minutes from the last RBA meeting show that it does not rule out another rate cut. Employment has stalled in January, following a very strong end to 2015. “Nevertheless, conditions in the labour market had clearly improved since early 2015,” the RBA said. “Leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead. “But the central bank said low inflation will allow it to cut the cash rate if jobs growth flattens out or the global economy goes into meltdown. “Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” the minutes said.

BoJ kept policy on hold, but signalled an implicit easing bias, by painting a bleaker picture of the economy and warning that inflation expectations are falling. The bank also announced that it will exempt around USD 90 bln in money-reserve funds (MRFs) – short term funds – from negative rates, after warnings that investment money would be driven into bank deposits. The pledge to increase base money at an annual rate of JPY 80 trillion was left in place. The BoJ said that while “Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend”, the pick up in exports, which was still seen in January, has paused, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging market economies. At the same time it said inflation expectations weakened recently. So the door to further easing is left open.

ECB ups pressure on governments to implement structural reforms. Bank of France head Villeroy stressed that monetary policy alone cannot revive the economy and said France needs reforms to boost conference. ECB’s Rimsevics also said that monetary policy can only buy time and that politicians need to act on reforms. Hardly anything new, but with the ECB effectively removing market pressure on governments Draghi finds that verbal pressure alone is a blunt tool.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI: February PPI is expected to decline by 0.3% (median -0.2%) in its Tuesday release with the core figure down -0.1% (median -0.2%). This compares to January figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.4%. Data in line with our forecasts would result in a flat y/y headline with a 1.1% y/y pace of growth for the core. Oil price declines have tapered off but are still likely to weigh on the release.

US Retail Sales: February retail sales data is out on Tuesday and the headline should decline 0.2% (median -0.1% with the ex-autos figure down 0.3% ( median -0.2%) for the month. This follows January figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.1% for the ex-autos figure.

US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: The March Empire State Index is out Tuesday and should reveal a headline increase to -12.0 (median -12.0) from -16.6 in February and -19.4 in January. Producer sentiment was strong over the course of the fall but weakened into the new year. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures of sentiment to hold at 49 for a third month.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
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Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:52 pm
Date : 05th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI.

Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation.

US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36).

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM
The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior.

Eurozone Services PMI
The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:43 pm
Date : 6th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

German Feb industrial production drops less than feared: Production correcting just 0.5% m/m from the rise in January, against expectations for a drop of around -2.0% m/m. Still, the January number was revised sharply down to 2.3% m/m from 3.3% m/m reported initially and the annual rate fell back in February. Together with the weaker than expected orders readings and mixed confidence data the outlook is for slowing growth in overall production and a general weakening of the growth trajectory as the improvement on the labour market peters out and the refugee crisis weighs on consumer confidence.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed with Japan underperforming as a third consecutive dip in the leading indicator and a stronger Yen weighed on markets. Elsewhere stock markets started to stabilize and the front end Nymex futures climbed toward USD 37 per barrel. The EUR weakened, but remains clearly above 1.130 against the dollar. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -1.7% in March, a slight uptick from the -2.0% y/y in February. Still to come, there is central bank speak from the ECB and the Riksbank and Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway sell bonds, while Greece issues bills amid fresh Grexit concerns.

US ISM-NMI March increased to 54.5: This was from a 53.4 two-year low that beat estimates and capped a four-month drop from a solid 58.3 as recently as October, versus a 59.6 ten-year high last July. The ISM-adjusted measure rose to 54.1 from 53.2 in February and a 53.1 two-year low in January, versus a 59.0 ten-year high last July. The ISM-NMI figures remain stronger than the factory sentiment readings likely because the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power via lower gasoline prices, while the factory sector faces headwinds from an inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, restraint in the vehicle assembly rate, and a petro-sector recession. Given March strength in the factory sentiment figures, the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys popped to a surprisingly solid 53 in March from 49 in both January and February and 50 over the last four months of 2015, leaving the strongest average since the 53 figure in June and July of last year.

US JOLTS report showed job openings fell 159k: 5,445k openings in February versus a revised 323k January gain to 5,604k (was 5,541k), though the January level was the 3rd highest of this cycle. The rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Hiring rebounded 297k to 5,422k after diving 276k in January to 5,125k (revised from 5,029k). The rate rose to 3.8% versus 3.6% previously. Quitters increased 99k to 2,950k following the prior 237k decline to 2,851k (revised from 2,804k). The quit rate also rose to 2.1% from 2.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes
The minutes to the March 17, 18 Fed meeting will be interesting for clues on the various outlooks of the Committee. However, Yellen’s dovish stance has usurped a lot of the importance of the minutes. Also, other Fedspeakers since the mid-March meeting have also let their feelings known, with even the more dovish members supporting expectations for 2 rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, data has revealed a slower Q1 economy, with our 2016 growth forecast now just 0.7%, with the Atlanta Fed at 0.4%. We know that in March, policymakers were contending with many uncertain and conflicting signals, as well as geopolitical concerns. Those factors left the FOMC on the sidelines, as they punted into Q2, although the economic projections for the year, along with inflation forecasts, were trimmed. Look for the minutes to largely underscore the various uncertainties domestically and around the world as the central reason for the unchanged policy stance.

ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingThe Non-Monetary policy’s ECB meeting is this morning in Frankfurt. This is a monthly meeting and involves all 25 members of the governing council.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:28 pm
Date : 7th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week



FX News Today

BOJ Koruda and Japan Finance Ministry: A reiteration of the Japanese economic approach was emphasized overnight as both the BOJ Governor and the finance ministry chief (Mr Suga) pledged more of the same and that they “Will take steps in FX market if needed”. The YEN continued its surge against its major competitors USDJPY is current trading at 108.8, EURJPY 124.50 and GBPJPY 154.00. The Nikkei 225 was understandably subdued on the news and is currently the lagging Asian stock market.

European Outlook: The bounce back in oil prices, which have risen above USD 38 per barrel, is keeping equity markets underpinned and things continued to improve in Asia overnight, with most markets outside of mainland China in positive territory, although gains have been modest, compared to the rise in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fed minutes, which on balance favoured caution added support, while the rise in the Yen is keeping a lid on Japanese equities. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to opening gains in Europe, with Eurozone markets likely to continue to underperform amid ongoing EUR strength and concerns about the economic and political outlook for the Eurozone as Grexit fears flare up again and push out spreads. The calendar is relatively quiet, with a focus on the ECB, which publishes the minutes to the March meeting and holds a conference on “The ECB and its watchers”.

FOMC minutes: They showed “several” officials argued for a cautious approach regarding the potential for an April hike, which was debated at the March meeting. As Yellen commented in her recent speech, and in her press conference, many participants thought the current rate asymmetry made it prudent to wait for more information on the underlying strength of economic activity or inflation before taking another step to reduce accommodation. The minutes revealed global concerns remained very relevant — the word “global” was used 13 times in the participants’ discussion of current conditions (“risks,” or some variation, appeared 16 times). Again the FOMC reiterated the next move would be data, not calendar, dependent. We’re not seeing anything really new in the minutes versus what we knew from the policy statement, the SEP, and subsequent Fedspeak.

Fedspeak, Positions Confirmed: Fed hawk Mester expects “gradual” rate hikes this year in a repeat of previous missives on the topic, in discussing the economy and monetary policy from Cleveland. Bullard also stated his expectation that inflation will overshoot the 2% target and that 2.2% inflation is better than 1.5% inflation and that all meetings are “live”. So more of the same from the Presidents.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB’s Draghi Speech
Due to speak about the economic and financial situation in Europe at the Portuguese President’s Council, in Lisbon. The eloquent and reserved Mr Draghi is always one to listen too carefully. Portuguese Bonds were dragged down yesterday along with Grexit talk. Interesting location for his latest speech.

Fed’s Yellen Speech
In New York the four latest Chairs (Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen) of the FOMC are meeting and Mrs Yellen is due to speak. As the incumbent Chair she is unlikely to use the occasion to utter anything new or indeed controversial. The words from her predecessors on the other hand could prove more interesting.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:50 pm
Date : 11th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th APRIL 2016.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There is a lot of potentially relevant US data due out this week, including CPI and retail sales. The week starts with March trade prices (Tuesday), where import prices should jump 1.6% (0.9% median) thanks to a rebound in oil (-0.1% ex-petro), while export prices are slated to sink 0.2% (median -0.3%). The Treasury budget is also due for March, with the deficit seen almost doubling to -$94.0 bln versus last March’s -$52.9 bln. Wednesday sees, retail sales, with a flat forecast for the headline (median 0.3%) amid some drag from chain store sales vs -0.1% in February. Excluding autos, sales should rebound 0.3% after the prior 0.1% dip. PPI is set to rise 0.2% headline (median 0.3%) or just 0.1% core, with business inventories seen sinking 0.2% in February. Inflation’s better half, the CPI report is due (Thursday) and expected to rise 0.1% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.2% in February. Initial jobless claims may dip 7k to 260k (median 270k) for the April 9 week. Empire State is projected to sink to 0.0 in April (median 2.2) vs 0.6 (Friday), along with a 0.4% fall (median unchanged) in industrial production for March vs -0.5% and a drop in capacity use to 75.0% (median 75.4%) vs 75.4%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may hold steady at 91.0 (median 92.0) and the TIC inflow report is also due.

Canada: The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and MPR (Wednesday) loom large this week. We expect no change in the current 0.50% policy setting to come alongside a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, but one that maintains that ample downside risk to growth is still in place. The take-away from the announcement and MPR is expected to be for an extended period of steady policy, as the Bank remains on the sidelines while past monetary stimulus continues to work through the system and fresh fiscal stimulus comes on-line. Economic data this week is back-loaded, with February new home prices (Thursday) and February manufacturing shipments (Friday) due at the end of the week. Manufacturing shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in February after the 2.3% surge in January. The new home price index is seen expanding 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% rise in January. Existing home sales for March (Friday) and the Teranet/National HPI for March (Wednesday) are also due out.

Europe: The Eurozone is once again looking shaky. Ongoing problems in Greek bailout talks have rekindled Grexit fears and with them, the question arises of just how much risk sharing there really is in the Eurozone. Data releases this week focus mainly on final inflation readings for March. German HICP moved back into positive territory and should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y, but with French HICP at -0.1% y/y, Spanish inflation at -1.0% y/y and the Italian HCIP rate at -0.3% y/y, the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday), is expected to be confirmed at a still negative -0.1%. Other data releases include February production and trade data, which are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for the ECB. We expect production to correct -0.9% m/m (median same), from the strong jump in January. The trade surplus meanwhile should widen judging by the improvement in the dominant German number that month, which was backed by a rebound in exports.

UK: The UK calendar has the April BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday), along with the latest BRC survey of retail sales (Tuesday) and inflation figures (also Tuesday). The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The BRC retail sales release is expected to rebound in March data to +1/4% y/y in the like-for-like measure, up from +0.1% y/y growth in February. Record levels of employment and rising real incomes are underpinning the sector. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also see nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. Such outcomes would be consistent with BoE projections.

China:  March CPI and PPI have been published earlier Today. Consumer prices were expected to rise to a 2.4% y/y rate from 2.3%, but they remained stuck on 2.3%. PPI however, posted a -4.3% y/y pace from -4.9%, better than expected. March trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed slightly to $32.0 bln from $32.6 bln. Friday brings the balance of data releases, including March retail sales which are expected to slow to a 10.0% y/y pace from 11.1% previously. March industrial production is seen improving to up 5.7% y/y from 5.4%, while March fixed investment likely ticked up to 10.3% y/y from 10.2%.

Japan: February machine orders have been published earlier Today and the decline was 9.2%, better than the expected 10.0% m/m versus the 15% January rise. March bank loan data is due Tuesday, followed by March PPI (Wednesday) which is see steady at -3.4% y/y. Revised February industrial production data comes on Friday, and is seen at -6.2%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Friday) will be of considerable interest. As for economic data, the March employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 0.3k rise in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8%, matching the 5.8% in February. Housing investment (Monday) is expected to rise 1.0% in February after falling 3.9% in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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Broj poruka : 246
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Tue May 17, 2016 11:01 am
Date : 17th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MAY 2016.




FX News Today

Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5th analysis on oil.

A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares,  according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

RBA’s May cut was driven by “broad-based” softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBA’s target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins.


Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be “less informative than usual” in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets.

US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release.

US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
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Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Wed May 18, 2016 12:21 pm
Date : 18th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th MAY 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today’s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK  labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses.

Japan’s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC’s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn’t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates “in the not too distant future,” while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won’t change the immediate rate outlook.
FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely.
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


avatar
Broj poruka : 246
Points : 1390
Date of Entry : 2014-06-26
Godina : 31
View user profilehttps://www.hotforex.com/?refid=14713

Re: HF - Market Analysis and News

on Thu May 19, 2016 11:31 am
Date : 19th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th MAY 2016.



FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets are pressured after the Fed minutes seemed to back June rate hike backs, with Asian stock markets mostly lower, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also in the red. Yields are rising as the end to ever expanding monetary policy accommodation is coming into sight and the front end WTI future has fallen back below USD 48 per barrel Bund futures already extended losses in after hour trade yesterday and are likely to remain under pressure. UK markets underperformed yesterday as reduced Brexit bets boosted Sterling, and while GBP has eased somewhat it remains above 1.46 against the USD. The European calendar today as Eurozone current account and U.K. retail sales and the CBI industrial trends survey.

FOMC minutes showed a June hike was “likely”: If data improved as expected. Officials wanted to keep options open for June. But there was a range of views on whether the economic numbers would be adequate to support a tightening next month. Consistent with the April 27 policy statement, many officials noted global risks needed to be closely monitored, with some noting specific worries over China’s currency and Brexit. However, “many” officials continued to see downside risks to the outlook, even as “some” saw global risks as having diminished. Meanwhile, a “few” officials (the more hawkish members) were talking about an April hike. The minutes certainly do set the stage for a tightening next month, though of course data will have to cooperate. Our call for a June hike is supported by the minutes to the April 26, 27 policy meeting.

Australia Adds Jobs: More new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month with the unemployment level remaining at 30 month lows. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% (expectations increase to 5.8%); Employment rose 10,800 for March; Full-time jobs fell by 9,300; part-time employment rose by 20,200; Participation rate, a measure of labor force as a share of the population, dropped to 64.8%. It shows that low interest rates are helping sectors such as construction and tourism, however the fall in participation rates and the rise of part-time workers shows suggests only tepid growth.

BoJ seen expanding stimulus by July: According to the consensus view from the latest Reuters survey. 19 of the 22 respondents expect a move by July, with 7 anticipating a move in June and 12 predicting that the stimulus boost will come at the policy meeting in July, which would coincide with BoJ economic forecast updates. The three remaining respondents opted for the two-day meeting ending on Nov-1. 80% of respondents expect a combination of cutting negative rates further and upping the QQE program (two of PM Abe’s three arrows economic-revival plan), although the prevailing -0.1% rate isn’t expected to be touched until Q4. Note that the survey was conducted over the six days to yesterday, thereby missing today’s initial release of Q1 GDP data out of Japan, which smashed expectations at +1.7% q/q, well up on the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. On this, however, caveats apply. As the FT points out, first-estimate GDP data are apt for potentially big revisions in Japan. The report also highlighted that falling investment chopped 0.9 of a percentage point of GDP in Q1, which is seem largely as a consequence of the impact of yen strength on major Japanese businesses. This should maintain Japanese policymakers’ desire to weaken the yen, though don’t expect much jawboning on this until the upcoming G7 meetings have come and gone.

Main Macro Events Today


  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: May Philly Fed is out on Thursday and should reveal a headline to increase to 5.0 (median 3.0) from -1.6 in April and 12.4 in March. The already released Empire State Index for May posted a dramatic drop to -9.0 from 9.6 which could spell downside risk to the Philly Fed release. However, we expect some improvement in broad producer sentiment in May with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures ticking up to 52 from 51 last month and 53 in March.



  • US Initial Jobless: Claims data for the week of May 14th are out today and should reveal a 297k (median 275k) headline following a 294k headline last week and 274k in the week prior. There is a chance that the big jump in claims last week was the result of spring break in NY public schools so there could be an unwind this week. We expect claims to average 275k in May from 259k in April and 264k in March. This would accompany an anticipated 190k nonfarm payroll headline for the month.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst 
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.










Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice. Please read the full Risk Disclosure. HotForex does not accept clients from the U.S., Canada, Japan, Sudan, Syria and North Korea.


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