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brave_fx
Broj poruka : 46
Points : 930
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27

Dukascopy Technical Analysis

on Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:33 am
EUR/USD erodes long-term resistance



“The Fed meeting was deemed a bit more dovish than expected, so the U.S. dollar has taken a bit of a back seat.”
- IG Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)


Pair’s Outlook
EUR/USD managed to erase one of the strongest resistances on its way to the north. The pair eliminated the long-term downtrend line around 1.1340 and continued to move upwards, therefore violating the next supply 20 pips from above (monthly R1). In case the Euro consolidates above them and, especially, beyond the Jun 10 high at 1.1383, then the medium-term outlook will be changed to positive. Moreover, daily technical studies are pointing to the upside at the moment.



Traders’ Sentiment

The gap between long and short positions at the SWFX market has been stable for the ninth consecutive trading day, as bulls are still holding 47% of all opened positions.
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brave_fx
Broj poruka : 46
Points : 930
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27

Re: Dukascopy Technical Analysis

on Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:08 pm
GBP/USD struggles to rise above 1.59



“With real average earnings and the labour market tightening in the UK, the outlook for private consumption growth remains encouraging.”

- ANZ (based on WBP Online)




Pair’s Outlook
The Cable experienced some volatility yesterday, but closed the trade edging higher. The Bollinger band from below cause the GBP/USD to gain an additional 30 pips, despite bearish expectations. The 1.59 psychological level is likely to limit further gains today, while technical studies keep showing mixed signs. Moreover, the pair might finally be pushed slightly back and decline towards 1.5838, where the weekly R2 lies, or even back to 1.58 major level.



Traders’ Sentiment
For the fourth consecutive day the share of longs decreased by one percentage point, as only 51% of traders hold long positions today. The number of orders to acquire the Sterling edged up from 59 to 61%.



USD/JPY stuck between 123.00 and 123.80



“The [US] dollar will probably trade in a range of around 122.50 yen to 125.00 yen in the next couple of weeks.”

- BBH (based on CNBC)





Pair’s Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair suffered losses on Thursday, with the exchange rate reaching the support cluster at 122.53. However, the trade still closed at the 123 major level, which might cause a rebound today. The nearest resistance still rests around 123.85, represented by the weekly PP and 20-day SMA, keeping the Buck bound in a tight range. Meanwhile, technical indicator keep giving bearish signals, conversely.



Traders’ Sentiment

Bullish SWFX market sentiment remains unchanged at 60%, whereas the sell orders took over the majority of the market, namely 51% of it.



XAU/USD climbs past 1,200





“A very dovish display by the Federal Open Market Committee appeared to be the main catalyst for gold.”

- Phillip Futures (based on Bloomberg)



Pair’s Outlook
XAU/USD benefited significantly from the fundamental statistics in the US on Thursday, and several resistances failed to provide sufficient opposition to bulls. Among them, the monthly pivot point and 100-day SMA were violated to the north, while these levels are also accompanied by the 55-day SMA and weekly R1. The only help for bears came from the next supply zone around 1,205 (23.6% Fibo, 200-day SMA, weekly R2), and these technical levels are capable of launching a correction phase in the near-term.



Traders’ Sentiment
Advantage of bulls over bears at the SWFX market decreased by seven percentage points during the past 24 hours, as market participants closed long trades amid the metal's upward change in price. The total share of long open positions, however, remains solid at 64% and bears are still in the minority with 36% of all trades.

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