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Broj poruka : 57
Points : 799
Date of Entry : 2015-08-26
Godina : 28
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mnKuOC

FX Daily Fix

on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:47 am
Posted on: 27 August 2015

The greenback outperformed as a strong bid in equities and fixed income took hold.

The September rate hike debate saw some push and pull with a strong Durable Goods number and a slightly dovish speech by Fed member Dudley.

Durable Goods came in at +2.0% versus -0.3% expected in July, while prior data saw an upward revision of 0.7% to 4.1%. Non-defense ex aircraft orders totaled +2.2% - highest this year. 3m annualized average has now risen from -5.5% to 4.0%. Solid details broadly, boding well for GDP Thursday.

Dudley: “From my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. Normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting as we get additional information on how the US economy is performing, and more information on international and financial market developments.”

Dudley specifically mentioned the upcoming University of Michigan confidence survey (Friday) as important, given it will be America’s first read post China nervousness.

The risk on environment favored USD strength especially against European counterparts.

GBPUSD was like a falling rock from the European open; down from 1.5660 towards 1.5460. CrossGBP unwinds were sighted for the selloff.  Some important technical levels lie just below. The 100d MA, along with trendline support, land from 1.5440-1.5465. The 200d MA comes in at 1.5372.

EURUSD plummeted alongside GBPUSD as traders piled back into carry/risk.  We printed on a 1.12 handle in late NY after yesterday’s close above 1.15.

USDCAD and USDJPY were neck and neck for choppiest pair of the NY session.


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Broj poruka : 57
Points : 799
Date of Entry : 2015-08-26
Godina : 28
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mnKuOC

Re: FX Daily Fix

on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:28 am

The Daily Fix - 28/08/2015


Bullish momentum into the September window continues to build. Yesterday’s durables number and todays GDP revision show that that the US economy just might be in a position to handle a rate hike after-all, even if the global economy ex-US seems to be slowing.

We have the University of Michigan survey out tomorrow, followed in a week by NFP ahead of the all-important September meeting. A strong survey and a solid jobs number will have the market expecting a rate hike is imminent.

GDP was revised to 3.7% from the 3.2% survey number expected by the market.
Jobless claims fell to 271k

Esther George, although a non-voter this year, says a rate hike is on the table. This isn’t news exactly since she’s been a hawk for some time, but the fact that she wasn’t scheduled to make remarks today is interesting in itself.
Existing home sales (MoM) dipped half a percent from the expected +1% expected to +0.5%.

For the second day in a row, Commodity and EMFX held steady against the dollar. Bigger gains were seen against the flavor of the month safe haven currencies however, with huge ranges evident this week in EURcrosses, GBPcrosses, and equity sensitive CrossJPY pairs.

WTI seems to be trying to put in a tentative bottom. It may seem a bit dead cat at the moment given the absurd 10% move off of the lows today, but the charts show a technical break above trendline resistance on the daily chart marked by a close above 42. This could be a bit of a short squeeze, but the techs and a more convincing backdrop of strong US growth numbers and a stabilizing equity market have market watchers on notice for further gains in the short term.

USDJPY sitting just above 121 as I type on increased risk sentiment in equities and general JPY longs blowing out. Levels to watch topside are 121.80/122, which is where we broke down earlier in the week.
Gold was a non-participant in today’s volatility, which is a bit strange given the “risk on” mode we’ve been in over the last 12 hours. The pet rock finished where it started at 1125.


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Broj poruka : 57
Points : 799
Date of Entry : 2015-08-26
Godina : 28
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mnKuOC

Re: FX Daily Fix

on Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:48 am
The Daily Fix - 17/11/2015

Global equity markets hold up well in the wake of Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris; US markets posted strong gains in as indices posted gains around 1.4%. NY empire state manufacturing index missed at -10.74 vs an expected decline of 6.

Was a day of strength for the USD as commodity currencies suffered and treasury yields rose. CAD weakened significantly on the back of the oil weakeness but was able to pare back some of its losses as WTI bounced off the psychologically important 40.00 handle to trade back up to 42 possibly on short covering and position rolling as December expiration approaches. We will get API inventory tomorrow at 1630 EST.

EUR continues to under-perform trading under 1.07 before finding support ahead of 1.0670. EZ CPI came out better than expected at 1.1% vs expected 1.0%. ECB Deputy President Constancio spoke today avoiding monetary policy meetings but warning about the potential consequences of the Paris tragedy, saying it is too early to judge the impact of the attacks on the economy.

Looking ahead we have the RBA meeting minutes, UK inflation report hearings, PPI and CPI numbers, US CPI and industrial products, and also NZD GDT price index change.


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Broj poruka : 57
Points : 799
Date of Entry : 2015-08-26
Godina : 28
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mnKuOC

Re: FX Daily Fix

on Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:47 am
The Daily Fix - 18/11/2015

Equities markets spent the day in positive territory before reversing these gains late in the NY session as headlines began hitting the tape around 1445 EST. 
A soccer match that Chancellor Merkel was supposed to attend was cancelled; early headlines suggested that a truck bomb had been found but were later dismissed as Germany’s interior minister confirmed that no bomb had been found.  No further details were given but the minister said the match was cancelled for good reasons.

US industrial unexpectedly fell at -0.2%MoM vs an expected increase of 0.1%. CPI matched consensus at +0.2% for headline and core.

NZDUSD remained heavy under .6500 as the GDT price index came in at -7.9%. AUD saw some selling during the NY session as weak commodities served to weigh on the currency.

Gold continued to trend lower breaking support around 1072 and trading to a low near 1065.

German ZEW data was mixed, EURUSD remained below 1.0680 consolidating within a range above 1.630.  ECM Praet delivered a dovish message but nothing that offered much in terms of new details.

Tomorrow we will see a number of Fed speakers ahead of the FOMC minutes, markets seem to be waiting for any clues about what the Fed intends for the Dec meeting.


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Broj poruka : 57
Points : 799
Date of Entry : 2015-08-26
Godina : 28
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mnKuOC

Re: FX Daily Fix

on Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:21 am
BRITISH POUND – Loses Big on Britain’s Vote for Independence

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Data Review
- Britain votes to LEAVE the European Union
- Rightmove House Prices 0.8% vs. 0.4% Previous

Data Preview
- UK GDP Revisions – Revisions are difficult to predict and Brexit will remain a key driver of GBP flows

Key Levels GBP/USD
- Support 1.3000-1.3500
= Resistance 1.4000

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union triggered pandemonium across the financial markets. Currencies and equities were hit hard by the vote with sterling falling over 10% intraday. This was the worst day ever for the British pound and the 1.3230 low reached during the Asian trading session was the weakest level for GBP/USD in more than 3 decades. The last time we had a move this large was during the Global Financial Crisis and before that on Black Wednesday, when the U.K. government was ejected out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).

Brexit will be worse than Black Wednesday - we see that in the price action of currencies and gilts along the level of uncertainty in the market. Ten year Gilt yields fell to their lowest level ever. Britain needs to invoke Article 50 to redefine its relationship with the EU but leaders of the Leave campaign refuse to act quickly. The longer they wait, the worse it will be for sterling. The only U.K. market to survive with modest losses was the FTSE 100 which ended the day down only -3.15%. The index dropped as much as 8.7% intraday but pared its losses on the back of a weakening pound and hope for U.K. stimulus.

But the bloodbath isn’t over for the British pound because Brexit is the beginning and not the end of their problems. The next step is for the UK and EU to negotiate their terms of exit. This discussion will take months and possibly even years. During this period, multinational businesses will refrain from making major investments in the U.K. economy and may in fact actively plan to move their headquarters and business operations over to the continent. There’s no question that over the next 12 months the U.K. economy will pay dearly for Brexit – they’d be lucky if there was any growth at all in the second half of the year. S&P could strip their AAA rating and the Bank of England stands ready to cut interest rates if there is even a hint of recession.

Thousands of words could be written about how damaging Brexit is for the U.K. economy but as currency traders, our main focus is the outlook for sterling.
GBP/USD ended “Black Friday” 400 pips off its lows which is impressive given the severity of the country’s decision to abandon the European Union. As shown in the following chart, the days after Britain was forced out of the ERM, sterling fell another 5% and in the 2 months that followed it was down 15%. So while we’ve seen an intraday recovery in GBP, we still expect Friday’s low to be revisited and broken.

At minimum we expect GBP/USD to drop to 1.32 over next month but the move could occur as quickly as the coming week. With no major U.K. economic reports scheduled for release, Brexit will continue to be the main story for the markets. When the U.K. decides to invoke Article 50, there could be a relief rally but don’t be mistaken, that move should be sold into because the divorce from the EU will be messy.


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