Banx broker
Advertisement

paxforex
Advertisement
Share
View previous topicGo downView next topic
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:45 pm
FOREX NEWS: UNSTABLE PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATA, BRITISH RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its slow crawl, moving below the support located at 1.1110 but no substantial advances were made. The U.S. Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ prediction, hence the impact on the market was limited.



Technical Outlook

The bearish movement lacks momentum and both oscillators are in the lower part of their channels, suggesting that a move into higher territory is likely to happen today. If this is the case, the bulls will encounter heavy resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and at the 1.1160 level. To the downside the first target is the zone between 1.1060 – 1.1040 and if the pair reaches it, we expect a bounce higher; however, a lot of today’s price action will be influenced by the U.S. inflation data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Price Index comes out today at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to show a change of -0.1%. Inflation is a key element which is taken into consideration by the Fed when the interest rate is set and usually an increase brings US Dollar strength, especially because the current value is too low. We can expect the pair to move lower in case of a value that’s higher than anticipated.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar was mostly bullish yesterday, fuelled by optimistic talks regarding a potential Brexit. Resistance was breached but a clear break wasn’t recorded at the time of writing.



Technical Outlook

For the bullish impulse to continue the pair needs to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside but for now this technical indicator is offering good resistance. A move above the moving average will make 1.4450 a likely target, while a rejection will open the door for a touch of 1.4230. The technical aspect is secondary today because both currencies in the pair are affected by important economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are the week’s last important release for the Pound. The event is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the anticipated change is 0.8%, compared to the previous -1.0%. Usually the indicator creates strong volatility, with higher values strengthening the Pound, thus taking the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:19 pm
FOREX NEWS: POUND RISES AS PRIME MINISTER CAMERON AND EU LEADERS FINALIZE AN OPTIMISTIC DEAL


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. inflation improved as shown Friday by the Consumer Price Index and the US Dollar strengthened at first but soon after, the gains were erased and the pair climbed higher.



Technical Outlook

Price action confirmed the zone around 1.1085 as support and price bounced higher once it touched it. This bounce at support combined with the fact that both oscillators are moving upwards may very well generate a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this is the case, the first target is the zone around 1.1200. However, as long as price stays below the 50 EMA, we favour the short side and a bearish break of 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be affected today by the release of the German Manufacturing PMI which is a survey of approximately 500 purchasing managers who are asked to rate business conditions in their sector. Usually higher numbers than expected strengthen the Euro but the indicator has a lower impact if the actual number matches or comes very close to analysts’ forecast. The release time is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 52.1.


GBP/USD

The pair ended last week on a bullish note after a back and forth Friday session. The British Retail Sales came out better than anticipated and British Prime Minister Cameron agreed on a deal with European Union leaders regarding Britain’s stay in the union.



Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is trying to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside and the buyers seem in control of short term price direction. If they succeed to take price above the moving average, we will probably see bullish price action for most of the day or at least until the resistance at 1.4450 is reached. A quick move below 1.4350 would make 1.4230 the first target but this is probably a distance that will not be entirely travelled on a Monday.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major news releases so the main focus of traders around the world will be on the technical aspect. Keep in mind that rumours and talks surrounding a possible “Brexit” will probably affect today’s price direction.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: HEIGHTENED BREXIT RISKS DRIVE THE POUND LOWER


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday, contributing to the weakening of the Euro and consequently a bearish day during which support was breached.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1040 was broken yesterday but the pair didn’t threaten 1.0980 and price action currently shows rejection. The Relative Strength Index is oversold abut the Stochastic is just crossing near its 50 level so the oscillator don’t show clear momentum; however, as long as the pair trades below 1.1085 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we maintain our bearish bias and expect a break of 1.0980.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released and expected to show a value of 107.0, little changed from the previous 107.3. The sample size for this survey is very large, of about 7,000 businesses and usually has a hefty influence on the Euro, with higher numbers strengthening it.

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding overall economic conditions. The forecast is 97.4 and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened severely due to increased risks regarding a Brexit and the pair opened with a weekly gap. The fall continued throughout yesterday and the pair threatened support.



Technical Outlook

After a big drop the pair rebounded around 1.4050 and moved back above 1.4125 but the heightened risks surrounding a potential Brexit will probably continue to weaken the Pound and drive the pair lower. The support at 1.4050 represents an important level that will most likely be touched again in the near future and today we expect the pair to move lower but the direction will depend on the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on economic outlook and inflation at 10:00 am GMT, before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. The testimony and more importantly Carney’s attitude will probably have a strong impact on the Pound and on top of that, any rumors or news about a potential Brexit will add more volatility so caution is recommended throughout the day.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Feb 24, 2016 3:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: WARNING: SUPPORT AHEAD. BULLS STEP IN?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Both the German and American surveys showed worse than anticipated numbers yesterday and this created mixed, up and down movement; however the pair was mostly bearish, threatening support.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.1040 as short term resistance and threatened 1.0980 but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both close to oversold territory and this increases the chances of a move up. Even if our bias is still bearish, we expect some upside price action today, possibly above 1.1040 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales come out, showing the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and offering insights into the state of the American housing market. The expected figure is 522K, a drop from the previous 544K and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited.


GBP/USD

Price action slowed down compared to Monday’s sharp selloff but the pair moved again near long term support and bounced slightly higher.



Technical Outlook

Price travelled a long distance in a short while and now is having trouble breaking the previous low. All this combined with the oversold position of the two oscillators makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly above 1.4125. However, the overall picture is bearish and a break of 1.4050 would probably bring in more sellers that would take the pair lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow for the Pound in terms of economic releases so the price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect and by the U.S. New Home Sales mentioned earlier.

__________________
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR MAKES HISTORICAL ADVANCES AGAINST POUND; RETRACEMENTS IN PLAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair erased early losses once the US housing data was released, showing a worse than expected number (forecast 522K, actual 494K). Also, yesterday’s price action established support at 1.0960.



Technical Outlook

The bears are still in control of the pair despite the bounce at 1.0960 support seen yesterday. A good place for downside price action to resume is the resistance at 1.1040, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; the oscillators are starting to move up after being oversold, increasing the chances of a deeper retracement, probably into the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Final version of the Consumer Price Index comes out today at 10:00 am GMT but no change is expected from the previous 0.4%. Also this is the last version of the indicator and tends to be the least important but nonetheless, higher numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, with a forecast change of 3.0% (previous -5.0%). Increased numbers for this indicator show a thriving economy and usually strengthen the greenback but the strongest impact is seen if the actual number surpasses the forecast, not only the previous value.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar felt the consequences of a deteriorating house market and weakened at the time of the release. However, yesterday the bears made significant advances and broke 1.4050 without any effort.



Technical Outlook

The next lower barrier is located at 1.3655, a level last touched in 2009; however, this is still far away and not so important at the moment. The oscillators are oversold and this means that we might see a longer retracement to the upside, with 1.4050 being the first potential target. To the downside, yesterday’s low at 1.3880 is the first support. Our bias remains bearish but a retracement higher is due.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance thus higher values suggest increased activity and a thriving economy, a thing that often means a stronger currency. The expected figure is 0.5%, same as previous.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP AND G20 MEETINGS – ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a very choppy trading session and although the U.S. economic data was better than anticipated, price was reluctant to drop.



Technical Outlook

The latest candles show long wicks, which is a sign of indecision and the resistance at 1.1040 seems hard to break. The overall bias remains bearish but a bullish retracement is still due; however, if the pair continues to trade below 1.1040 and the buyers don’t manage to break above this level, we expect to see a drop into 1.0960.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the Euro as the German Preliminary CPI is released today at 1:00 pm GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and the German economy is the most important in the Eurozone so the indicator will probably have a strong impact. Higher numbers than the expected 0.6% (previous -0.8%) are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The US Dollar will be strongly affected by the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product which is anticipated to show a change of 0.4% from the previous 0.7%. Since the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance, higher values usually bring a stronger currency so we are likely to see moves lower for the pair if the actual value is higher than the forecast.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations so the impact on the Pound was mild and overall the pair showed a choppy trading session.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s choppy price action doesn’t hold a lot of clues for future short term direction. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both still exiting oversold and this means that a correction to the upside is very possible; also the minor support at 1.3880 wasn’t threatened and this shows that the bears are not too eager to make new advances for the moment. However, keep in mind that we are in a clear downtrend and the possibility of sharp drops should not be overlooked.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicator releases but the G20 Meetings start today, attended by key personalities of the political and financial scene so we are likely to see increased volatility.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN MOMENTUM, ECONOMIC DATA TO INFLUENCE SHORT TERM DIRECTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product released Friday showed a much better than expected value, contributing to the drop that took the pair below support.



Technical Outlook

After a rejection seen at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair broke the previous low (located very close to 1.0960) and finished the week on a strong bearish note. Today we will probably see a continuation of Friday’s downside action but 1.0960 is likely to be tested from below due to the fact that a fast down move is usually followed by a correction to the upside. The economic data released throughout the day will decide the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in European inflation. The previous value was 0.3% and for today’s release the forecast is 0.0%. German inflation data (which represents a hefty part of overall European inflation) was already released last week but nonetheless, higher than expected numbers can strengthen the Euro, driving the pair higher.

The U.S. Pending Home Sales come out later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, expected to show a change of 0.6% compared to the previous 0.1%. Higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar but the indicator is considered to have medium impact.


GBP/USD

Positive U.S. data strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair significantly lower Friday and re-establishing the control of the bears.



Technical Outlook

Although the support at 1.3880 was broken late in Friday’s trading session, we cannot consider this to be a definitive break because price is still too close to the level. The overall picture is bearish but we cannot rule out a bullish reaction and thus a move above the mentioned level. The oscillators offer mixed signals and not a lot of clues about future direction so today we are likely to see a session driven by the economic data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the British Net Lending to Individuals, released at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 5.2B, while the previous was 4.4B. The report tracks changes in the total amount of credit issued to individuals and can be a leading indicator of consumer spending, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:46 am
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the Eurozone Consumer Price Index showed a disappointing value, lower than analysts had anticipated, thus the single currency weakened, allowing the pair to travel south.



Technical Outlook

After a brief retracement higher, which confirmed 1.0960 as resistance, the pair moved down, meeting support at 1.0870. Here we are likely to see a stall, sideways movement or even a jump higher but overall the picture is bearish and we anticipate a break of 1.0870, followed by a touch of the key support located at 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in said sector. The survey usually acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. For today’s release a small increase is anticipated, from the previous 48.2 to 48.5.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had a session that completely lacked direction, moving above and below minor support. The fundamental scene was lackluster, contributing to the choppy trading session.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created another minor support around 1.3840 and the overall direction remains bearish but the next move is hard to anticipate. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are starting to move upwards after reaching oversold and this suggests that a move north is next but on the other hand, the main trend is bearish so the extent of this potential move up will be most likely limited. A break of 1.3840 will probably bring in more sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT, and is expected to show a value of 52.3, lower than the previous 52.9. Just like the American indicator with the same name, this survey acts as a leading indicator of economic performance and can strengthen the Pound if it shows higher than anticipated numbers.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:53 am
FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STARTS TO SET IN. FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA MAY CLEAR THE FOG


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement for the most part of yesterday but a better than expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI gave the US Dollar a boost in the afternoon and brought some volatility.



Technical Outlook

Price action yesterday was mostly characterized by indecision but nonetheless the pair remained below 1.0870 and the greenback benefited from better than anticipated economic data which generated optimism. We maintain our opinion that soon price will reach the key support at 1.0800 but we don’t rule out upside corrections, mostly due to the oversold position shown by the 2 oscillators and the long lower wicks shown by the last candles.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report which offers a first look into the United States jobs situation. It is put together by a privately owned company, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and doesn’t hold the same importance as the Government released data which comes out 2 days later. However, it’s still considered a high impact indicator and values above the forecast 185K (previous 205K) are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The scheduled release time is 1:15 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

Although the British Manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing value, the pair climbed in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, most of the gains were erased later in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The bullish candles have small bodies and some of them show long wicks in both the upper and lower side. This is a clear sign of indecision and shows that yesterday’s move up is not very solid. The fact that price came in close vicinity of the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and then moved lower, adds to our opinion that a bigger drop is likely to follow, with the first target being 1.3880, followed by 1.3840. To the upside, the 50 EMA is still first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound continues to be affected by Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and this time it’s the Construction PMI, which will offer insights into the performance of the said sector. Today’s forecast for this indicator is 55.5 and the time of the release is 9:30 am GMT. As a rule of thumb, higher numbers strengthen the Pound and as always, the U.S. employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:23 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO LINGERS BETWEEN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE, POUND GAINS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar continued to drift without direction and despite a better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment report, the pair didn’t make any significant downside advances yesterday.



Technical Outlook

Indecision now rules the pair and it seems like market participants are waiting for Friday’s NFP report before choosing a clear direction. For now the level at 1.0870 can offer some resistance but not a strong one and support is still located at 1.0800. The oversold position of the oscillators and the fact that bears haven’t made significant advances during the last days suggests that a move up is next but the medium term downtrend is still bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will not be affected by major economic indicators today and on the US Dollar side we have the Non-Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with mixed impact on the greenback. Usually higher numbers than the expected 49.8 (previous 53.5) strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound moved higher yesterday, even if the British Construction PMI showed a disappointing value. The release created a brief moment of downside movement but the bulls quickly took control and took the pair to new highs.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke the resistance zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4050. Unless we see a quick reversal here, the pair is likely to travel into 1.4125 but by the time the level is touched, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought, thus increasing the chances of a drop south.

Fundamental Outlook

The last British Purchasing Managers’ Index in the series is announced today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey is of course focused on business and economic conditions in the services sector and can strengthen the Pound if it shows readings above the forecast of 55.1. The impact is often muted, especially if the actual value does not differ a lot from forecast.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:41 am
FOREX NEWS: EURO, POUND GAIN AGAINST THE US DOLLAR. A SURPRISING NFP REPORT CAN TURN THE TIDE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro strengthened against the US Dollar yesterday and moved decisively above immediate resistance. The climb was mainly influenced by technical reasons as the US Non-Manufacturing PMI came close to analysts’ forecast, thus the impact was mild.



Technical Outlook

The current up move is rapidly approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0960. This level acted as a good barrier for price in the past so we can expect some sort of reaction when it will be touched again. Also, the moving average is in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be tough to break. The probability of a reversal in this zone is high but today’s price direction will be heavily influenced by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

The most anticipated release of the week is finally here: the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. This report is widely considered the most important employment related data for the U.S. economy and shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. A higher number than the anticipated 195K (previous 151K) is beneficial for the US Dollar, suggesting also that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The scheduled time of release is 1:30 pm GMT and high volatility is expected.


GBP/USD

Despite a disappointing survey for the Services sector, the Pound continued to gain and the pair moved above resistance during yesterday’s trading session.



Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.4050, the pair re-tested it and bounced higher, thus turning the level into support. Also, price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term bias is bullish but from a longer term perspective, we are still in a downtrend. Note that the oscillators are moving into overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower but as mentioned before, the fundamental aspect will have a big influence on today’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook


The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases but all eyes will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, which will have a direct impact on the pair.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:15 am
FOREX NEWS: EFFECTS OF THE NFP STILL IN PLAY. THE US DOLLAR RETALIATES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed that 242K new jobs were created during the previous month. This was more than the anticipated 195K but the pair still moved higher, after just a brief dip.



Technical Outlook

The effects of the better than expected NFP report are likely to be seen early this week and we expect price to move lower after the touch of 1.1040 resistance, seen Friday. Adding to this bias is the overbought position of the Stochastic and the fact that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 70 level (almost overbought). The first target for the day is 1.0960 but if 1.1040 is broken to the upside, we expect a touch of 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the German Factory Orders are released, showing changes in the value of total orders placed with factories for industrial products. A higher change than the anticipated -0.4% suggests that manufacturers will increase their activity to fill these orders and this usually has a positive impact on the Euro but the extent is limited.

Also today, the Eurogroup Meetings take place and this may trigger some volatility if important matters are discussed. Keep in mind that the Meetings are closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists before the meetings have concluded.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar, the Cable had a bullish day Friday, although the U.S. jobs market showed improvement. The pair remained above the moving average, further weakening the downtrend.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action confirmed 1.4125 as short term support so we can now expect this level to reject falling prices. The resistance at 1.4230 was tested but not broken and today we expect the pair to bounce lower from this zone, considering that both oscillators are overbought. It’s possible to see ranging price action, with the pair confined between the two levels mentioned earlier.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today so we expect price direction to be influenced only by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: POTENTIAL BREXIT TAKES CENTER STAGE, CARNEY’S TESTIMONY EYED


EUR/USD


Forex News: We’ve had a fairy uneventful day yesterday and price was not much affected by the release of economic indicators. Overall the day was bearish and the pair breached support.



Technical Outlook

Price bounced lower at 1.1040 resistance, helped also by the overbought position of the Stochastic and now the pair is testing the support at 1.0960. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity but neither of the 2 mentioned forms of support were clearly broken so we are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario: a break of support would increase the chances of a move into 1.0870 while a bounce would make 1.1040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The meetings are closed to the press so during the day we don’t expect major moves unless some participants talk to journalists; however, once the meetings have concluded, a formal statement will be released.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow start of the week and remained between support and resistance yesterday. The fundamental scene was lackluster and this contributed to the lack of clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The pair seems undecided as far as the next move is concerned but the short term bias remains bullish since the bears didn’t even manage to threaten support yesterday. The immediate target is the resistance at 1.4230 but the Stochastic is just curving downwards, coming out of overbought so it’s possible to see another bounce lower if the level is touched again. A lot will depend on Mark Carney’s speech scheduled today, which will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:15 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Parliamentary Committee, with the topic being United Kingdom’s European Union membership. A potential separation of the UK from the European Union (widely known as Brexit) would trigger huge moves on the Pound and this is the reason why today’s speech is the main headline. The impact is not known and depends mostly on Carney’s attitude and answers.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: INCREASED BREXIT RISKS WEAKEN THE POUND, EURO SUFFERS FROM LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the Euro and US Dollar had a normal trading session, without any major surprises. The pair bounced at support but failed to break resistance.



Technical Outlook

Price touched twice in a short while the resistance located at 1.1040 but failed to break it, showing that the bulls lack clear strength. On top of that, both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are hovering close to overbought and all this increases the chances of a bounce lower. If this move occurs, the first support and target is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by the level at 1.0960. To the upside the first potential resistance level is located at 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and US Dollar lack major economic indicators today so we expect a trading session driven by the technical aspect. The pair is likely to remain choppy, in anticipation of Thursday’s ECB rate decision.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech triggered Pound weakness yesterday and we saw a false break of resistance, followed by a move lower, which did not threaten support.



Technical Outlook

Risks of a potential Brexit take their toll on the Pound so the current move below 1.4230 is likely to extend at least into 1.4125. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity of the mentioned level so this area is likely to reject price higher; however, a bearish break of this zone will show that the sellers are trying to regain control of the pair, making 1.4050 a probable target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release their estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. The impact of this indicator varies from release to release but usually, numbers above the previous 0.4% strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for values below 0.4%.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:51 am
FOREX NEWS: ECB DEPOSIT RATE: TO CUT OR NOT TO CUT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The resistance at 1.1040 rejected price yesterday and overall we had a bearish session, with a lacklustre fundamental environment.



Technical Outlook

After the bounce near 1.1040, the pair headed into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and touched 1.0960 support. Currently this zone is not breached and price shows some signs of rejection (long wicks in the lower part of the candles) but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index both show downside momentum. This creates a mixed situation and makes us believe that today’s the ECB rate decision will dictate the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the European Central Bank announces their decision regarding rates. The interest rate is not expected to change (0.05%) but the deposit rate is expected to drop from the current -30% to -0.40%. This will most likely create a strong impact on the Euro and probably downside action but extra caution is recommended. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 1:30 pm GMT, discussing the rate decision and this is another reason for increased volatility.


GBP/USD

The British GDP estimate was released 23 minutes earlier than initially scheduled and showed a value of 0.3%, lower than the forecast 0.4%. However, this didn’t affect much the currency and the pair had a choppy trading session.



Technical Outlook

Price is testing the resistance at 1.4230 once again but the oscillators are still moving south and neither side seems in clear control. A bullish break of 1.4230 followed by a re-test from above would suggest that the pair’s next destination is the level at 1.4350 and a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will make 1.4050 a likely target (probably not reached in one day). It’s also possible to see a ranging session today because the Pound is not affected by major news releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any economic indicator releases for today so the technical aspect will be the main focus.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:18 am
FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH OF THE ECB SURPRISE MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB decided to cut the interest rate to 0.00% and the deposit rate to -0.4%, facts which initially weakened the Euro, as expected. However, a sharp rise of more than 300 pips soon followed and now the pair is doing the opposite of what was expected after a cut of interest rates.



Technical Outlook

The market’s next move is extremely hard to predict, considering the reaction seen yesterday. After such a strong move, we are likely to see a retracement lower or even a period of sideways movement. The levels to watch remain 1.1040 as potential support and 1.1160 as potential resistance. We recommend caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is calm today and no important indicators are released by either Europe or the United States. This fact is likely to generate a slow and possibly choppy trading session.


GBP/USD

Although the Pound wasn’t affected yesterday by any economic indicators, the surprising decision of the European Central Bank extended its effects on the pound – dollar pair as well.



Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD, price moved lower then reversed immediately and broke resistance, creating a difficult to trade environment. A quick move below 1.4230 would suggest that the bulls cannot continue their “attack” and that we will see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.4125. This level is also the last tested support as confirmed by yesterday’s price action. If the pair remains above 1.4230 we are likely to see a touch of 1.4350.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Trade Balance is released, expected to show a value of -10.3B compared to the previous -9.9B. This is a medium impact indicator that shows the difference between imported and exported goods; usually a number that’s higher than forecast strengthens the Pound but the impact may vary from release to release.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: THIN LIQUIDITY AS EASTER LEAVES ITS MARK ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action Friday was choppy and mostly sideways, mainly because European banks were closed due to Good Friday. The Final version of the U.S. GDP showed a higher than expected value but the release was mostly overlooked.



Technical Outlook

The sideways movement seen Friday is likely to continue today because of low liquidity generated by the Easter Holiday. The levels to watch are 1.1210 as resistance and 1.1085 as support but an accurate technical prediction cannot be made for the reason mentioned above. Also, volatility is likely to be irregular, meaning we may see strong moves followed by reversals or ranging periods. 

Fundamental Outlook

Europe celebrates Easter today, thus major banks will be closed and economic activity kept to a minimum. This will probably translate into slow and irregular movement. On the US Dollar side the most notable indicator is the Pending Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.2% change compared to the previous -2.5%. Higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback, showing a healthy house market but the impact is not always strong.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the GBP/USD had a slow session Friday, without any spectacular advances to either side.



Technical Outlook

Probably the pair will show irregular movement today but the latest bias is bearish and a bullish retracement occurred late last week. Normal behaviour after a move against the trend is a resumption of the previous trend, thus a move lower is expected; however, given the circumstances, caution is advised. First important lower barrier remains 1.4050 while to the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average may act as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Pound will have a slow day from a fundamental perspective as no major indicators are released and most UK banks are closed due to Easter Monday.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:43 pm
FOREX NEWS: LIQUIDITY BACK TO NORMAL, ALL EYES ON FED CHAIR YELLEN’S SPEECH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action was slow for the most part of yesterday’s early trading session but in the afternoon a bullish breakout took place and now resistance is being tested.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is testing 1.1210 from below. In this move a big part was played by the thin liquidity generated by the Easter Holiday so once things get back to normal we may see a move lower. If this occurs, then 1.1210 will be confirmed as resistance and the next target will become the support zone around 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is today’s first potential market mover, scheduled for release at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a number of 93.9. About 5,000 households are involved in this survey and usually a higher value suggests that respondents are confident about the economic situation and possibly that consumer spending will increase; this usually brings strength to the US Dollar.

The second important event of the day is Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled at 11:30 am GMT and titled Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. As always when heads of central banks deliver public speeches, the respective currency can show strong and sometimes irregular movement so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound made substantial advances yesterday, breaking above 1.4230 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a 4-hour chart.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move can be attributed to the low liquidity created by the Easter Holiday but in any case, the pair is now sitting above 1.4230 and a bullish continuation is very possible. If moves south occur, 1.4230 may act as support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but otherwise the resistance around 1.4350 is the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The main focus today will be on the technical aspect because no major economic indicators are scheduled for release.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF U.S. JOBS, GERMAN INFLATION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we didn’t see much action but the pair did reach 1.1210 and is now showing signs of rejection. The U.S. consumer survey came out better than anticipated but the impact was mild.



Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1210 but a breakout is likely to occur today and the direction of this breakout is likely to determine the bias for the remainder of the day. The last couple of candles show long wicks in their upper part and this is a sign of rejection so we slightly favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the day is a look at European inflation with the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT. An increase of 0.6% is expected (previous 0.4%) and if better numbers are posted, the Euro is likely to strengthen.

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change, showing how many new jobs were created in the previous month (excluding the farming industry and government). Although this report is not as important as the Government data that comes out 2 days later (Non-Farm Payrolls), higher numbers are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because a higher number of employed people suggests that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future.


GBP/USD

The pair continued yesterday the bullish movement started early in the week and bounced higher off of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The economic data didn’t have a strong impact and just created a small retracement lower.



Technical Outlook

The moving average acted as good support for the pair and pushed price higher even if 1.4230 was briefly breached. For today we expect the bullish movement to continue and price to approach 1.4350. Although this level doesn’t look very strong, on a zoomed out chart it’s clear that it rejected price in the past so it may do so again. Keep an eye on the oscillators which are approaching overbought, a fact that may hinder upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow day again so the only major event is the release of the U.S. jobs data; other than that, the technical aspect will play a major role, as always.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:59 pm
FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION STILL IN THE MIX, AS THE US DOLLAR TRIES TO ERASE LOSSES


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation increased 0.8% as shown by yesterday’s German Consumer Price Index and the Euro responded positively, strengthening and taking the pair above resistance. The U.S. jobs data came close to analysts’ expectations and did not have a substantial impact.



Technical Outlook

Price is approaching the resistance at 1.1375 and if this level is broken, we expect a move into 1.1450. However, we must note the extreme overbought condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index, thus we expect some sort of retracement lower before the assault on the mentioned resistance. First lower barrier and target is the level at 1.1320.

Fundamental Outlook

Inflation is again the day’s headline, but this time we are talking about the CPI for the entire Eurozone (Flash Estimate version). The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.1% (previous -0.2%). A higher value usually strengthens the Euro, taking the pair higher and the opposite is true for a lower value.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well, allowing the pair to climb above 1.4350 and to breach 1.4450, generating a bullish trading session.



Technical Outlook

Similar to the other pair, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought and 1.4450 acted as strong resistance in the past so we expect bearish movement at this level or possibly at the previous significant high (1.4510). The first potential support is located at 1.4350 but keep in mind the short term trend is up so additional bullish movement after the said pullback is a distinct possibility.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the Financial Stability Board Plenary Meeting. The event takes place in Tokyo and the scheduled time is 7:00 am GMT. Whenever heads of central banks speak publicly, the impact may be strong, thus caution is recommended.

Another important British event is the release of the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Although this is the least important version of the GDP, higher numbers are usually beneficial for the currency so bullish movement can be expected if the estimated figure of 0.5% is exceeded.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:05 pm
FOREX NEWS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TO “MAKE-OR-BREAK” THE US DOLLAR RECOVERY


EUR/USD


Forex News: After a brief period of sideways movement, yesterday the pair continued on its bullish route, moving clearly above resistance. The European inflation numbers came out close to analysts’ forecast and this was viewed as positive by market participants.



Technical Outlook

After the strong movement seen over the past few days, we expect a period of sideways price action and even bearish pullbacks due to the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. The level at 1.1375 was an important turning point in the past but now price didn’t even flinch when it passed it so either the bulls are very strong or the current break is false and price will soon return below the mentioned level. Probably this question will be answered today by the release of the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important release of the week is scheduled today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls). This indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the past month and it is widely considered the best gauge of jobs market health in the United States. Today’s forecast is 206K new jobs, lower than the previous 242K but a higher number usually brings strength to the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair re-tested the level at 1.4350 and turned the zone into support but afterwards, movement was mixed. The speech of the BoE Governor did not trigger substantial moves.



Technical Outlook

After the rejection seen at 1.4450 resistance, the bulls failed to take back control of the pair and now momentum seems to slow down. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving down, coming out of overbought and this increases the chances of a stronger move south but most of today’s directional movement will be determined by the economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the anticipated 51.4 usually strengthen the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and later in the day the pair will be directly affected by the NFP release so caution is recommended.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 04, 2016 3:48 pm
FOREX NEWS: ENCOURAGING NFP REPORT FAVOURS A US DOLLAR COMEBACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s main event was undoubtedly the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls which showed that 215K new jobs were created in March, more than the anticipated 206K. However, the Euro was resilient and erased most of the initial losses.



Technical Outlook

Price action was mixed Friday but we expect the US Dollar to strengthen today and the pair to move down, below 1.1375. Both oscillators are coming down from overbought and the fundamental side favours the greenback, so the chances of a bearish move are high; the first lower barrier is represented by the support at 1.1320, while the first upper barrier is represented by the key resistance at 1.1450. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Factory Orders come out, showing changes in the value of total purchase orders placed with factories. It’s a leading indicator of production and higher numbers strengthen the greenback but the impact is often mild. The forecast is a -1.5% change compared to the previous 1.6%.


GBP/USD

The NFP report released Friday created a huge drop which took the pair below support and also showed that the bears still have a lot of underlying strength.



Technical Outlook

Price is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.4230; if the bears can keep the pair below these levels, the downside movement will probably continue until 1.4050 is reached. We don’t expect this to happen today but it should be a viable destination for the near future. It’s possible to see slow movement today, with the bias determined by the British economic data. 

Fundamental Outlook

The only British indicator scheduled for today is the Construction PMI which is expected to show a 54.3 value, almost unchanged from the previous 54.2. This survey of purchasing managers acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Pound as they show optimism regarding the future development of the Construction sector. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STILL RULES THE SCENE AHEAD OF PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEX RELEASES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday movement was slow and without clear direction; a lot of this was due to a monotonous fundamental environment and the lack of major news releases.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still hovering near 1.1375 and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. We still anticipate a drop below 1.1375 and closer to 1.1320, mostly because both oscillators are moving out of overbought. However, given the current lack of direction, a move up is not out of the question; if this happens, the first target is the key resistance at 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by the release of the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the current level of economic conditions, excluding the manufacturing sector. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the forecast 54.1 are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The scheduled time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI showed a value that matched analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t have a strong impact. Nonetheless, the pair moved higher during yesterday’s trading session.



Technical Outlook

The bullish move seen yesterday showed that the break of 1.4230 was false and that we may see a touch of 1.4350 if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be broken. Signs of rejection are already seen (long upper wick) but the oscillators are starting to move upwards, favouring the bulls, so the picture is still blurry and on top of that, the pair is still confined in a daily triangle pattern so movement will be mixed until the pattern is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinion of purchasing managers about the health of the Services sector. This indicator is not known to be a strong market mover but usually, higher numbers than the forecast 53.9 are beneficial to the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:33 pm
FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED, FOMC MEETING MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked substantial movement but was dominated by the bears. The US Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a better than expected value, strengthening the greenback and contributing to the bearish movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now headed towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.1320. This is a good place for the bulls to step back in and retake control over the pair, considering that overall we are in a medium term uptrend. A break of the mentioned support zone would show that the uptrend is exhausted and that the sellers are ready to take price closer to 1.1210 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event today is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a document which contains details of the latest FOMC meeting and insights into the reasons that determined the Fed to maintain the rate unchanged. The event is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT and usually creates strong movement if it contains hints about the pace of future rate hikes.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued on a downward path and the pair moved below support on the back of US Dollar strength generated in part by the positive U.S. economic data.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now sitting below 1.4230 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; this makes the short term bias bearish and increases the chances of a continued move south, closer to 1.4050. However, we are still in a ranging period and the pair is not clearly out of the daily triangle pattern mentioned yesterday. This means that an oversold condition of the Stochastic or RSI has increased chances to trigger a move higher; this potential climb is likely to find resistance at 1.4230.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene for the Pound is calm as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases today, thus direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the FOMC Minutes.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:28 pm
FOREX NEWS: FED UNDECIDED ABOUT NEXT RATE HIKE – US DOLLAR SHOWS WEAKNESS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes the pair touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and bounced higher once it did. The Minutes showed mixed opinions among FOMC members about an April rate hike and this was perceived as bearish for the US Dollar, allowing the pair to climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair shows rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and at 1.1320 support; on top of that, the current trend is up so we are likely to see a touch of 1.1450 key resistance. If this handle cannot be broken, price is likely to re-test the moving average in the near future and if the bears manage to break it, we will probably witness the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a new downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:30 am GMT the ECB will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, a detailed document of their latest rate meeting, containing insights into the reasons that influenced their latest rate decision. Similar to the FOMC Meeting Minutes, this document can create volatility at the time of release so caution is recommended.

Later in the day, at 9:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a public speech at the International House in New York. This is another reason for increased volatility and the direction will depend on Yellen’s attitude and matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The pair breached the key level at 1.4050 yesterday but soon returned above it, showing that this support is still an important hurdle for the bears.



Technical Outlook

The current bounce is likely to bring the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but here we expect a drop and another try to break 1.4050 support. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are bouncing off of their respective oversold levels and this fact increases the chances to see bullish price action today.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:18 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK, THREATENS SUPPORT AGAIN


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the anticipated touch of resistance occurred but the bulls ran out of steam and the pair fell to touch the 50 period Exponential Moving average on a four hour chart.



Technical Outlook

We saw an almost perfect bounce lower at 1.1450 resistance but now the pair is also showing rejection off of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the picture remains unclear until price moves outside one of these technical levels. A bearish break of the 50 period EMA would need to extend below the support at 1.1320 and if this happens, we expect 1.1210 to become the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today price direction will be driven by the technical aspect as both Europe and the United States didn’t schedule major news announcements.


GBP/USD

Price touched key support once again yesterday and now the pair is in indecision mode, lacking clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The key support at 1.4050 is proving tough to break and for the second time the pair is showing rejection in this area. The latest momentum is bearish but overall the pair is still in a ranging period, without a clear trend, so it’s very possible to see a move north. If the support at 1.1450 is broken, the immediate destination will become the previous low located at 1.4000.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of -0.2% compared to the previous 0.7%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium impact on the Pound, with higher numbers being beneficial. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release their Estimate version of the British Gross Domestic Product. Although this is just an estimate, higher numbers than the previous 0.3% are usually good for the currency.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:48 pm
FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP: EXPEDITED PROCEDURES CLOSED MEETING


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair showed a slight bullish bias, bouncing higher at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but overall movement was slow, similar to the rest of last week.



Technical Outlook

Several times in the last period, price has bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls failed to capitalize and take price above the key resistance at 1.1450. This is an indication that the uptrend is starting to crumble, but on the other hand the bears cannot make serious advances either so we are dealing with a channel breakout scenario. The upper boundary is 1.1450 and the lower boundary is 1.1335; a break of either one will probably determine the next short-to-medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed is due to hold an “expedited procedures” Meeting today. This meeting is closed to the press but afterwards an official statement will be released. The exact time is not yet known but the main topic of discussion is the interest rate so we expect very strong impact that will probably extend throughout the week. Extreme caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production numbers released Friday showed a disappointing value but the Pound’s answer was mixed, weakening at first and then making up for the losses.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4050 is still the most important level for short term price action. Last week the pair bounced off of it again and this up move is likely to continue until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is reached. On the other hand, if a break of 1.4050 happens today, we will probably see a move into the previous low at 1.4005. Given the unexpected Fed Meeting, we expect strong and possibly irregular moves on all US Dollar pairs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the Fed Meeting will directly influence the pair, thus caution is advised.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:38 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL STUCK IN A RANGE, POUND PREPARES FOR INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: For most of yesterday the euro-dollar remained confined inside the range represented by 1.1450 resistance and 1.1335 support. Overall the session was slower than expected.



Technical Outlook

The buyers are putting some pressure on the pair and threaten 1.1450 but so far this key resistance remains intact. At the time of writing the Fed closed meeting did not take place yet and an exact time is not yet known. As stated before, the impact of this meeting can be strong, depending on the matters discussed. In the meantime, we are still dealing with a breakout scenario and our bias is neutral, waiting for a move above 1.1450 or below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.1335.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a slow day for both the Euro and the US Dollar from a fundamental standpoint and price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb yesterday, moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the 1.4230 barrier.



Technical Outlook

The oscillators are coming closer to overbought and this favors a move down. As we said previously, the pair is going through a ranging period and in this kind of period, any extreme position of the oscillators (overbought or oversold) can more easily generate a counter move. We expect a move lower, that will possibly turn 1.4230 into support before heading higher; if the mentioned level is broken to the downside, the first target becomes the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is announced, and anticipated to show a change of 0.3%, same as previous. This is the main gauge of inflation, which is currently considered too low, so higher values than forecast will likely generate Pound strength.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:31 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES – THE DAY’S MAIN MARKET MOVER


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair tried once again to break the key resistance at 1.1450 but failed once more and a sharp drop followed, taking the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

It appears like the pair is finally preparing for a real breakout and the bounce at 1.1450 showed that the bulls are clearly out of steam. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was the first hurdle in front of falling prices and it was broken during yesterday’s fall; all this make our bias bearish, anticipating a move below 1.1335. Once this level is broken, it is likely to see a re-test from below, which will confirm the level as new resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar remains in the spotlight today for the release of the U.S. Retail Sales numbers scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 0.1% increase compared to the previous -0.1%. Sales made at retail levels represent a key element of the economy and usually higher numbers strengthen the currency so we expect to see more downside movement if the actual number is higher than anticipated.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release that posted a 0.5% change (forecast 0.3%). This initially strengthened the Pound but soon after, US Dollar bulls stepped in and the pair bounced lower at resistance.



Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.4350 resistance and moved below 1.4230 but now the bears have an important barrier ahead: the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this hurdle can be overcome, the next likely destination is 1.4050 although we don’t expect that to happen during the course of a single day. The overbought condition of both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index played an important role in yesterday’s drop and now the greenback is gaining momentum, so we expect further downside to follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound won’t be affected by major news announcements so the main mover for the pair will be the release of the U.S. Retail Sales and of course, the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:22 pm
FOREX NEWS: A NEW US DOLLAR TREND? AMERICAN INFLATION DATA COULD BE THE DECIDING FACTOR


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move to the downside despite the fact that U.S. Retail Sales posted a disappointing change of -0.3%. This goes to show that the US Dollar is strengthening and the Euro bulls are slowly giving up their control.



Technical Outlook

Price has moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the previous support at 1.1335. This is a clear indication that further downside is probable but we have to note that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching oversold. This means that the chances of bullish retracements have increased and that today we may see a re-test from below of 1.1335. If this level can turn into resistance, we expect the pair to head towards 1.1200 area.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT important inflation data is released by the United States: the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.2%, better than the previous -0.2% and any values above or even equal to the forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar, generating movement south.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bearish advances slowed down, probably influenced by the worse than expected U.S. Retail Sales. At the time of writing the pair is still struggling to break the moving average.



Technical Outlook

Although the oscillators still show good momentum, the pair is having difficulties breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and price is sitting just below 1.4230. Once and if these barriers are broken, we expect the bears to take price closer to 1.4050 which is the next key level. A bounce higher is less likely but not out of the question because the pair is still in a ranging state judging from a medium term perspective.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England announces the interest rate decision today at 11:00 am GMT. No change is expected (currently 0.50%) but a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is also revealed, showing the stance of each member. Previously all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged but a sudden change of stance could trigger strong moves on Pound pairs so we recommend caution at the time of release. Keep in mind that the U.S. CPI will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:54 am
FOREX NEWS: BEARS PUSH LOWER, SUPPORT STILL INTACT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its descent although the U.S. CPI showed a value below analysts’ expectations; however, it was still better than the previous number and this was viewed as bullish for the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

Price is getting closer to the support around 1.1210 and now we see some bullish impulses, probably generated by the oversold condition of the two oscillators. For now the pair did not make a significant lower high or lower low so we cannot consider the latest move to be a clear downtrend and thus, expect a move into 1.1335 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If one of the two will turn into resistance, the chances of further downside movement will increase, making 1.1210 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey derived from the opinions of about 500 consumers. The expected figure is 91.9 (previous 91.0) and higher values usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is often mild if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations. Also today the G2 (Group of 20) Meetings take place, attended by key personalities from the member states. The event might influence volatility, so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged and all MPC members agreed on this. As a result, the release did not create significant moves for the Pound; however, the pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday.



Technical Outlook

The important support represented by the 50 period EMA was broken and although the bears are taking a breather now, we expect the downside to continue until the key support at 1.4050 is reached. We must note that the Stochastic is now oversold but the Relative Strength Index has not reached an extreme yet so the picture offered by the oscillators is pretty blurry at the time. In any case, keep in mind that the Stochastic favours a move up; if this is the case, we expect price to be rejected lower by 1.4230 or by the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be mainly affected by the technical aspect because no major British indicators are released. The G20 Meetings and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey will have a direct impact on the pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 18, 2016 3:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: SLOW MONDAY; RESISTANCE HINDERS UPSIDE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we had a slow day, with some bullish movement, generated in part by a disappointing value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which weakened the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to move higher until it touches the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the level at 1.1335. This level is not yet confirmed resistance but it will become one if price bounces off of it. The oscillators moved out of oversold, thus increasing the chances of a bullish move into the mentioned zone but a bounce here would increase the probability of a break of 1.1250 en route to 1.1210.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT, William Dudley, the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank will deliver opening remarks at a Conference in New York. He is a FOMC voting member, so his attitude is likely to influence the US Dollar but we don’t expect huge movement unless he surprises the markets and audiences with strong statements.


GBP/USD

A weaker US Dollar allowed the Pound bulls to take price higher Friday and to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, horizontal resistance is still intact so the next move is still undecided.



Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.4230 resistance but signs of rejection are already present. If the pair moves below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, this will confirm the bounce at 1.4230 and will probably generate a move south. On the other hand, if price stays above the 50 EMA, we expect a break of immediate resistance and that will probably bring in more buyers who will take the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be influenced only by the technical aspect today as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicator releases.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:30 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE BULLS ARE STILL IN THE GAME, SHOWING UNDERLYING STRENGTH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday was a slow day for the euro-dollar but the bulls dictated the pace and direction of the action. Resistance is still intact and as long as this is the case, we still favour a move south.



Technical Outlook

As long as price stays below 1.1335, we anticipate the pair to move lower, towards 1.1250. The Stochastic is approaching overbought, favouring a bounce at resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still not broken so it is currently acting as resistance as well. All this will make it tough for the bulls to move the pair higher but a break of the mentioned resistance zone will open the door for 1.1450 once more.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is today’s main reason for Euro volatility. The survey is derived from the opinions of 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 8.2, almost double than the previous 4.3; higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American Construction sector; the anticipated value is 1.20M and higher values benefit the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a great day against the greenback and managed to climb above 1.4230. This scores an important victory for the bulls and makes the short term bias bullish.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.4230, we favour the upside but a bearish trend line sits in front of rising prices. If this barrier can be surpassed, we anticipate the bulls to take the pair into 1.4350 but overall the pair is in a ranging phase so the control does not clearly belong to either side; this also means that an extreme reading (overbought) of any of the 2 oscillators would increase the possibility of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 2:35 pm GMT before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee. A hawkish stance will likely bring Pound strength while the opposite is true for a dovish approach. Either way, volatility is expected and caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 410
Points : 1174
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:14 pm
FOREX NEWS: A BULLISH RESURGENCE OR THE LAST IMPULSE BEFORE A HUGE DROP?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey released yesterday showed a better than expected reading while the U.S. Building Permits didn’t meet analysts’ forecast and all this played a role in the climb above resistance seen yesterday.



Technical Outlook

The current climb above resistance is approaching an overbought condition as shown by the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. This suggests that a move lower is in order, even if afterwards the pair will resume upside movement. The day’s most important level remains 1.1335, which may trigger a bounce higher if price returns to re-test it; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also a barrier in front of falling prices and as long as the pair sits above it, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the ECB Generation Euro Competition. We don’t expect strong movement but it’s an event that you should be aware of, because volatility may increase during his speech. On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 5.29M (previous 5.08M); the indicator is not a major market mover but usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb and is now trading well above the bearish trend line mentioned yesterday. Horizontal resistance was also broken and it looks like we are seeing a resurgence of the bulls who seem determined to regain control.



Technical Outlook

The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index have moved above their respective overbought levels, warning about a potential retracement lower. If this retracement occurs, the first potential support will be offered by the level at 1.4350 and to the upside, the first notable resistance is located at 1.4460, followed by the zone around 1.4500.

Fundamental Outlook

UK labour market data comes out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related help during the previous month. The expected number is -11.9K and lower numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound.
View previous topicBack to topView next topic
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum