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GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:37 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR PUSHING HARD, BREAKING SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The greenback quickly shook off the weakness created by the Fed decision and yesterday we had a bearish session as a result. A small bullish pullback was seen but it found resistance at 1.1320 and the pair started to drop.



Technical Outlook

Now we have confirmed resistance at 1.1320 and the pair is heading strongly towards the support at 1.1215. The bullish trend line visible on the chart above is broken, price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the oscillators are heading south, without being oversold, so all things point towards a break of 1.1215, followed by a move lower. A bullish break of 1.1320 resistance would invalidate such a scenario for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator of the day is the Euro Zone Consumer Confidence survey released at 2:00 pm GMT. Numbers above zero indicate optimism regarding financial conditions and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase but for today’s release the expected value is -7 (same as previous). A higher number is beneficial for the single currency but the impact is often mild.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound as well but no substantial advances were made and the pair is still trading above support.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s trading session was bearish, the resistance at 1.5500 is not yet broken and the pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so bullish price action can still be expected. Once (and if) these two forms of support are broken, we anticipate a touch of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing the amount of debt held by public corporations and the government. A higher value than the forecast 8.7B is detrimental for the Sterling and will probably take the pair lower.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:43 pm
FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES, US DOLLAR RUNNING ON ALL ENGINES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The greenback continued its run yesterday and managed to break support, generating another day controlled by the bears. The Euro Zone Consumer Confidence survey came out with the expected value and didn’t affect the pair much.



Technical Outlook

The dollar is going strong and the pair is trading below 1.1215, heading for 1.1100 but the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are approaching extreme territory, thus a bullish retracement is in order. We believe this pullback will occur before 1.1100 can be broken and that it will find resistance somewhere around 1.1215. If this level holds as resistance, we will most likely see a break of 1.1100 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released at 7:00 am GMT, expected to show a value of 48.6 and half an hour later the same indicator for the German economy is released, with a forecast of 52.8. These surveys act as leading indicators of economic health and higher than anticipated numbers have a positive impact on the euro.

ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament today at 1:00 pm GMT and this will probably be the most important event of the day. His attitude and answers will dictate the next euro direction so caution is recommended during his speech.


GBP/USD

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing showed more debt than anticipated and the Pound suffered the effects, weakening against the greenback for almost the entire day.



Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we mentioned yesterday is now clearly broken and 1.5330 support is now threatened, with the bears being in clear control of short term price action. However, price has travelled too far and too fast and the oscillators are entering oversold, increasing the chances of a move north in the form of a pullback. When this move occurs, it should be treated as a simple retracement, not a reversal and once it is complete, we expect a break of 1.5330 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today so centre stage will be held by the technical factors.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:19 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DEFY SUPPORT. RETRACEMENTS AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair continued to move lower yesterday and came in close vicinity of the support at 1.1100. A hawkish attitude adopted by ECB President Mario Draghi pushed the pair higher in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The current move up is likely to continue until 1.1215 is touched but once this important level is reached, we expect a bounce lower that will take the pair below 1.1100. This level is key for short term movement and a break would be a substantial victory for the bears but note the oversold condition of the Stochastic and the fact that both oscillators have already started to move higher; these facts will favour a move north but we don’t expect a clear break of 1.1215.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about economic conditions as well as an outlook for the next 6 months. Due to its large sample, this survey has a hefty impact on the euro and higher numbers than the expected 107.8 can take the pair higher.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of -2.0%, much lower than the previous 2.2%. Such a substantial drop would weaken the US Dollar, allowing the pair to climb.


GBP/USD

The pair moved lower for almost the entire day, without any sort of retracement to the upside, just a brief period of sideways movement, seen on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

A bullish pullback is still expected, considering the long distance travelled in one direction and the oversold condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. Once this retracement is complete and downside movement resumes, we expect a break of 1.5200 but a move above 1.5330 would invalidate such a scenario for the moment.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association release the Mortgage Approvals which offer insights into the housing market. The indicator is not exceptionally important and the impact is usually low but higher numbers than the expected 46.3K can bring some strength for the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:43 pm

There are 182 official currencies worldwide.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:48 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, BEARS RETALIATE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro benefited from better than expected data yesterday while the US Dollar was weakened by a worse than previous value of the Durable Goods Orders thus the pair climbed for most of yesterday.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved to the upside more than expected and now it is heading towards the resistance located at 1.1320. The bullish trend line broken a while back and visible on the chart above can also offer some resistance, creating a confluence zone combined with 1.1320. This resistance area is likely to push the pair lower and if this is true, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first support which needs to be broken, followed of course by 1.1215.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the Final version of the United States Gross Domestic Product is released and although this is the least important out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), it still can create strong movement, especially if the actual value shows a big difference compared to analysts’ forecast. The expected number is 3.7%, same as previous and a higher value suggests a thriving economy and could strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD

After a perfect touch of support, the pair bounced higher, completing a much needed retracement. Yesterday price action was choppy and difficult to trade especially on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.5200 shows that the bulls are starting to fight back and both oscillators are in oversold territory, starting to move upwards. This means that we may see an extended move to the upside but it’s important to note the last few candles show long upper wicks, which is a sign of rejection and a hint that price may be ready to move south again. Short term resistance is located at 1.5285.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today is slow as far as economic releases are concerned and the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator announcements. The pair’s direction will be affected by the U.S. GDP and by the technical factors.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK STEALS THE SHOW AS RATE HIKE SPECULATION SPURS VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price action was mixed, with the bears making another failed attempt to move the pair below 1.1100; instead the bulls gained control and took the pair into resistance. However, no important levels were broken.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.1215 are now the first resistance zone in front of rising prices. Recently we saw a bullish move above 1.1215 which couldn’t be sustained and price soon dropped so the same scenario might occur today unless we see a successful re-test after a potential bullish break. The oscillators don’t offer important hints about the next direction so we are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario with 1.1215 as the main star of the play.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath will interview FOMC voting member William Dudley. The topic is the always important inflation and interest rate so the event may trigger increased volatility and strong movement. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Pending Home Sales are released, expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.5%; higher values point towards a thriving economic environment and usually strengthen the greenback to some extent.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped below support and then returned to re-test it but the market closed before the outcome of the re-test could be known.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5200 was breached and currently a re-test is in progress but it is important to note the extreme oversold condition signaled by both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. The oscillators have spent a long period below their respective oversold levels and this drastically increases the chances of a bullish move above 1.5200. The greenback will be affected by the interview given by FOMC member Dudley and this event is likely to decide the pair’s next move.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the US Dollar today for the events mentioned before as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Sep 29, 2015 1:58 pm
FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO STILL IN PLAY AHEAD OF GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s movement was slow and mixed for most of the session but in the afternoon the US Dollar suffered from much worse than expected Pending Home Sales, so the pair moved higher. Although Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley expressed his belief that a rate hike will come later in the year, the greenback didn’t show a strong reaction.



Technical Outlook

Given yesterday’s slow movement, the outlook remains almost the same: the bounce-or-break scenario is still in play, with the confluence zone created by 1.1215 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average offering the first resistance. A bullish break should be confirmed by a re-test from above while a successful bounce will probably take the pair into the first support, located at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s direction will be affected by German inflation numbers released at 12:00 pm GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The expected value is 0.1% (previous 0.2%) and a drop would be another blow dealt to an already weak euro so we are likely to see bearish movement if the forecast comes true.

At 2:00 pm GMT an U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out, expected to drop to 96.2 from the previous 101.5. Because consumer confidence is tightly correlated with consumer spending, a lower value usually weakens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The bulls attempted yesterday to take price above 1.5200 but did not succeed and the pair is now trading below this level. Overall the session was choppy on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

A bullish pullback is still expected but the Pound seems to be weak and 1.5200 acts as a strong resistance zone. A close of a strong bullish four-hour candle above this level will probably trigger a retracement to the upside and 1.5285 will become the first potential target. The oscillators still haven’t cleared their oversold condition and this will increase the chances of a move north but keep in mind that overall the picture is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:40 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at Lloyds of London. A more hawkish than expected attitude will generate pound strength and hints about the nearing of a rate hike will bring strength to the currency as well.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION AND FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA – INGREDIENTS FOR A BREAKOUT


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation showed a worse than expected change and U.S. Consumer Confidence increased more than anticipated but despite all this, yesterday’s session was not entirely controlled by the bears and price action was mixed.



Technical Outlook

The current move down can be a re-test of the recently broken resistance at 1.1215 which may turn into support if price bounces higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat, moving alongside 1.1215 but can also offer some form of support; however, the overall picture is mixed and neither side is in clear control. If the pair stays above 1.1215, the first target will become 1.1320, otherwise we are headed towards 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index comes out, expected to show a decrease from the previous 0.1% to 0.0%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation (which has been too low for a long while), further decreases can negatively affect the euro.

At 12:15 pm GMT the ADP version of the Non-Farm Employment Change is released, offering an early look into the American jobs situation. The report is not as important as the government released data that comes out Friday but higher numbers than the forecast 192K usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained below immediate resistance for most of yesterday and overall we had a slow session, with a bearish bias.



Technical Outlook

The pair found support around 1.5135 and it keeps grinding lower although the speed has definitely diminished. If the mentioned short term support can be broken early in the day, we expect a touch of 1.5100 but keep in mind that the oscillators haven’t visited the upper boundaries or even the 50 level in a long while and this increases the chances of moves north.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account (value difference between imported and exported goods) is released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -22.2B (previous -26.5B). At the same time the Final Gross Domestic Product comes out (no change forecast from the previous 0.7%) and values above expectations for both indicators are considered bullish for the Pound and implicitly for the pair.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: HEADING FOR SUPPORT ON POSITIVE U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the euro took a hit from disappointing inflation and the US Dollar strengthened from better than expected numbers for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and as a result the pair travelled again below 1.1215.



Technical Outlook

For the second time in a relatively short while the bulls took the pair above 1.1215 but then failed to capitalize on the break and price soon returned below the level. This shows lack of strength and also that we might see a break or at least a touch of 1.1100 today; both oscillators are moving downwards, supporting such a move.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is slower than we got used to this week but the notable events are the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims at 12:30 pm GMT (expected to show a number of 273K unemployed individuals) and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (forecast 50.8). Higher numbers for the first indicator usually weaken the greenback and better than expected values for the second strengthen it, but often the impact is mild if the difference between forecast and actual numbers is not substantial.


GBP/USD

The British Current Account showed improvement and this took the pair higher in the early stages of yesterday’s trading session but the bears took over once positive U.S. data came out.



Technical Outlook

The pair still hasn’t completed a proper retracement and the oscillators are just coming out of oversold territory, suggesting that price might head higher too. Yesterday we saw a move into 1.5200 which resulted in a bounce lower and overall the picture is bearish so if 1.5135 is broken, we are likely to see a touch of 1.5100; here price is likely to pause or retrace higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is also released today and expected to show a value of 51.3, a slight decrease from the previous 51.5. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and because this is a leading indicator of economic health, higher values strengthen the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: TRADING IN CALM WATERS BEFORE THE NON-FARM PAYROLLS STORM HITS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair was little affected by economic releases and instead the technical aspect was the main price mover yesterday. We had a bullish trading session but immediate resistance was not broken.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1215 may turn into resistance if it rejects price lower once it is touched. The break of the bullish trend line seen in the chart above is likely to trigger additional bearish movement but 1.1100 remains the key level for short term price action. To the upside the level to watch is 1.1215 followed by the bearish trend line. The technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental today as the much anticipated NFP report is released.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is comes out, showing how many new jobs were created during the previous month. The employment situation weighs heavily in Fed’s decision regarding a possible rate increase so today’s report is probably more important than usual and it is widely known that almost always the impact is huge. Higher numbers than the expected 202K (previous 173K) are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved higher after almost touching the support at 1.5100. The British Manufacturing PMI showed a value close to analysts’ expectations and the impact on the Pound wasn’t substantial.



Technical Outlook

Price is headed towards the resistance at 1.5200, with both oscillators moving upwards after a long period of being oversold, so the chances of a touch of resistance are high. Same as in the case of the euro-dollar pair, the pound-dollar will be heavily affected by the U.S. jobs report so the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The NFP release is the highlight of the day but before that, the Pound will be affected by the Construction PMI which comes out at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 57.5, almost unchanged from the previous 57.3. This survey of purchasing managers from the construction sector acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound but the impact is often mild.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: LESS U.S. JOBS, YET RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s highlight was the disappointing U.S. No-Farm Employment Change, which showed a number of 142K while the forecast was 201K. This initially weakened the US Dollar and took the pair higher but most of the euro gains were erased later in the day. 



Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the bullish trend line and moved above 1.1215 but found heavy resistance at 1.1320 and returned below the bearish trend line. It looks like the US Dollar still has some steam left despite the unexpectedly low number of jobs so we are likely to see down pressure and a move towards the bullish trend line. On the other hand, a quick move above 1.1215 and above the bearish trend line would suggest that 1.1320 will be tested again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI. The indicator is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate the current level of business conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with better than expected numbers strengthening the US Dollar. The forecast is 58.0, a decrease from the previous 59.0.


GBP/USD

The greenback felt the effects of the NFP report and the pound bulls capitalised on it, creating a much needed retracement higher. The dollar erased some of the losses later in the day and immediate resistance still holds.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5200 was breached but the pair bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and moved below the mentioned level. This means that for the moment resistance still holds and that we might see a new encounter with 1.5100. A move above the 50 period EMA would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.5330 the next target during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 56.4, better than the previous 55.6. Similar to the U.S. indicator, it’s a survey of purchasing managers focused on business conditions and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:25 pm
FOREX NEWS: INDECISION AMONGST MIXED US DOLLAR SENTIMENT AND IRREGULAR VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was characterized by indecision: the pair climbed but resistance wasn’t threatened and then a move lower followed but it wasn’t substantial and support is still not clearly broken.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still flat and price is hovering near 1.1215. The downside is capped by a bullish trend line which we expect to be touched today but volatility is low and the market is having difficulty finding a clear direction. To the upside 1.1320 remains the first important short term resistance and a break would trigger additional bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings take place, attended by major personalities of the financial and political world so the volatility is likely to pick up; also, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt at 5:00 pm GMT.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Trade Balance, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a value of -42.2B. The indicator tracks the difference between imports and exports and a higher value is considered beneficial for the greenback although the impact is sometimes medium.


GBP/USD

The Pound was affected yesterday by a worse than expected Services Index and this contributed partly to the drop below 1.5200 which came after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance.



Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to capitalize on a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now the bears managed to take price below 1.5200. This shows that the US Dollar is still strong despite the disappointing NFP and that we might see a touch of the support at 1.5100 but keep in mind that neither side is in clear control and moves upwards are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic announcements for today but the pair can be affected by the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and also by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:49 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS AND BEARS STRUGGLING FOR CONTROL IN AMBIGUOUS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Trade Balance showed a bigger deficit than analysts expected, weakening the US Dollar and allowing the pair to climb during yesterday; however, movement was still slow and without clear strength on either side until late afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The pair rallied above 1.1215 but price action doesn’t reveal whether the move up will continue or not. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and the oscillators don’t show a clear direction, adding to the blurry picture. The levels to watch remain 1.1215 and 1.1320 and in case of a sell off, the bullish trend line can offer important clues, with a break suggesting further downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the US Dollar and the Euro, so traders will focus on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound gained against the US Dollar as well and now is struggling to break to the upside a confluence zone; the main part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls, with a surge in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5200 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average create a confluence zone which will be tough for the bulls to break but if they do so, they will score an important victory. A true break should be followed by a successful re-test from above which will turn 1.5200 into support. If this is the case, the next target is 1.5330, otherwise the pair will likely head towards 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production numbers are released, showing changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector. Higher numbers than the anticipated 0.4% (previous -0.8%) will most likely strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is announced, offering insights into the overall performance of the British economy. Although this is just an estimate, the impact is usually strong, with higher numbers than the previous 0.5% being beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:43 pm
FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES, BOE RATE DECISION – A STORM WAITING TO HAPPEN


EUR/USD


Forex News: Indecision continued throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair didn’t make substantial advances to either side. A light economic calendar most likely contributed to this movement.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1280 gained importance for short term price action as we see the pair react to this zone, bouncing lower every time it touches it. A breakout is still anticipated, with support being offered by the bullish trend line and immediate resistance at 1.1280, but the direction is uncertain and will probably be decided by the contents of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will offer insights into the economic reasons that determined them to hold rates unchanged. Since a lot of speculation surrounded a September rate hike, finding out more details about the reasons behind the FOMC decision is crucial and the impact of the release will probably be bigger than on other occasions. As always, caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing numbers surpassed analysts’ expectations, strengthening the Pound and generating another bullish trading session, taking the pair close to 1.5330 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The bulls made important advances yesterday but 1.5330 resistance sits in front of rising prices and the oscillators are approaching overbought. This could mean that we are about to see a reversal around this level, followed by a re-test of 1.5200 but today the Bank of England has prepared important announcements which will heavily influence the pair’s direction, making the technical aspect secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the official bank rate and will also make public a breakdown of the members’ votes. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but a change in the members’ stance will undoubtedly trigger strong movement. At the same time the BoE will release a Summary of their Monetary Policy which can also have a strong impact on the Sterling.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:59 pm
FOREX NEWS: GRINDING HIGHER, WITH LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair surpassed yesterday’s high but soon returned below resistance before the release of the FOMC Minutes which contained some mixed signals but showed that voters didn’t rule out a rate hike later this year.



Technical Outlook

The pair continues to grind higher, without breaking resistance but lately a lot of candles show long wicks, suggesting indecision. Yesterday’s bounce at 1.1320 followed by a move down could generate additional bearish price action, with 1.1215 as first target but on the other hand, a full candle break of 1.1320 would solidify the slim control of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The last day of the trading week is light in terms of economic announcements so the main focus will be on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the MPC members voted as analysts expected so the event went mostly unnoticed but the Pound strengthened early during the day. The FOMC Meeting Minutes created US Dollar weakness but the movement wasn’t substantial.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved above 1.5330 and created short term resistance at 1.5370 but similar to the euro-dollar, the latest candles show long wicks, suggesting that indecision is present. The Stochastic is overbought and curving downwards, indicating that a drop might follow; if this is the case, 1.5330 is the first barrier that needs to be broken, while to the upside the first target is located at 1.5370.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the British Trade Balance released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -10.0B (previous -11.1B). The indicator tracks the value difference between imported and exported goods and higher numbers show a thriving economy (numbers above zero indicate that more goods were exported than imported). The impact is generally medium, especially if the actual number is close to analysts’ expectations.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:58 pm
FOREX NEWS: FUNDAMENTALS MAKE WAY FOR THE TECHNICAL SIDE – POSSIBLE REVERSALS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair finished the week on a bullish note as Friday we saw price climb for almost the entire day. Immediate resistance is now broken but major resistance is still intact.



Technical Outlook

Price is now moving above 1.1320, with minor resistance at 1.1380 and looks like the pair exited the choppiness it was in. It is important to note that both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought, warning about a potential reversal below 1.1320. If this is the case, we are likely to see a day with ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Union didn’t schedule major economic announcements for the day and U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating Columbus Day. All this may translate into choppy movement and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD

The Pound couldn’t continue the extended bullish run and Friday we had a session controlled mostly by the bears after another bounce at short term resistance.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.5370 offered strong resistance in front of rising price and generated a move lower which took the pair below 1.5330. The oscillators are coming down after showing an overbought condition so the current drop is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will offer the first form of support. A break of the moving average will open the door for a move into 1.5200 but probably price will not travel such a long distance today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the European Union and the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements so the entire economic calendar is blank, with traders focusing on the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:45 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE TECHNICAL SIDE HINTS ABOUT REVERSALS BUT NEEDS CONFIRMATION FROM FUNDAMENTALS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and price direction was mainly influenced by the technical side. Overall the day was slow, with a failed attempt to move above resistance.



Technical Outlook

The last few four hour candles show long wicks and this is a sign of reversal, especially because it happens close to 1.1380 short term resistance. Adding to the possibility of a move down is also the fact that both oscillators are showing overbought signs. The first level of potential support in case of a drop is located at 1.1320, while a clear break and close above 1.1380 would make 1.1450 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey which is released at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 6.8, much lower than the previous 12.1. The survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors and asks them to rate the German economic outlook for the next 6 months. Higher numbers than anticipated show optimism and usually strengthen the euro but the impact is mild if the forecast matches the actual numbers.


GBP/USD

The pair slowly climbed yesterday but stopped once again at minor resistance. This shows Pound weakness and prepares us for a potential move south.



Technical Outlook

The minor resistance created around 1.5370 is gaining importance for short term movement as seen from yesterday’s price action. Once again the level rejected rising price and we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if the mentioned resistance is not broken soon. The oscillators are moving downwards but without clear direction so we will turn to the fundamental side, expecting it to show the real bias of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation is released today at 8:30 am GMT. A lower value than the forecast 0.0% will most likely trigger Pound weakness and a move south for the pair, bringing price closer to the 50 EMA.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Oct 14, 2015 3:24 am
FOREX NEWS: BULLS STUMBLE AHEAD OF U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH UNEMPLOYMENT DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair had another day characterized by mixed movement as early in yesterday’s session the bulls tried without success to keep price above resistance. The second part of the session belonged to the bears and the pair returned lower, influenced also by a weak reading of the German ZEW.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now below 1.1380 resistance and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are pointing downwards after coming out of overbought. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today we will see an encounter with 1.1320 and probably with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental outlook will play a major role today as an important U.S. indicator is released: the Retail Sales. The expected change is 0.2% (same as last month), with higher numbers usually strengthening the US Dollar because sales made at retail levels represent a huge part of overall consumer spending which in turn accounts for the main part of economic activity.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index showed a value of -0.1%, lower than analysts’ expectation of a flat 0.0%. This pushed back the hopes of a near future rate hike and weakened the Pound substantially yesterday.



Technical Outlook

After another unsuccessful attempt to break the short term resistance located at 1.5370, the pair dropped swiftly through 1.5330 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, pausing at 1.5200. This strong drop is likely to extend below 1.5200, taking the pair into the next support located around 1.5100 but both currencies are affected by important announcements today and a lot will depend on the numbers posted.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a change of -2.3K (previous 1.2K). The indicator tracks unemployment levels by showing the change in the number of people without jobs who applied for social benefits. If the actual number is lower than forecast, the Pound is likely to gain strength (the bigger the difference, the higher the impact). Of course, the U.S. Retail Sales will also have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:54 pm
FOREX NEWS: KEY RESISTANCE AHEAD. ALL EYES ON U.S. INFLATION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bulls had a brief moment of weakness yesterday before the release off the U.S. Retail Sales numbers but the disappointing value allowed the pair to climb and to touch key resistance.



Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.1450 is of major importance to medium term movement and yesterday the pair missed it by just a few pips. A break of this key level would signify a major victory for the bulls and would open the door for the next resistance, located at 1.1713. Surely such a distance will not be travelled today and more importantly, we have to note that 1.1450 still acts as strong resistance which can reverse the bullish move. The oscillators are hovering in the upper part of their channels but not yet overbought so they don't offer strong clues.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus remains on the US Dollar today for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of American inflation. The indicator holds special importance because the Fed is closely monitoring inflation when deciding whether to increase or not the interest rate this year. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is -0.2% compared to the previous -0.1%; lower numbers usually weaken the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a surprisingly bullish day, erasing all of the losses incurred a day earlier and clearly breaking resistance. The British Claimant Count Change showed a worse than expected number but the pair continued to climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair is clearly on a bullish path and 1.5500 is the next probable destination. After such a strong move, price is likely to pull back a little and to re-test 1.5370 from above, turning it into support. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought, signalling that a retracement is possible but the Stochastic is headed upwards, suggesting that the current move can easily continue so the oscillators are offering mixed signals.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn't schedule major news releases for today so the pair's direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:36 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION IS UP AND SO ARE THE HOPES FOR A RATE HIKE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Inflation improved in the United States, as shown yesterday by the CPI release, and this was one of the main reasons for the strong drop which took the pair below 1.1450.



Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.1450, the bulls ran out of steam, both oscillators entered overbought, which combined with better than expected U.S. inflation data, triggered the substantial drop seen yesterday. Of course the question is whether this move can continue lower or will it be stopped by support. Currently the pair is testing 1.1380 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity so the question will be answered by the way price will behave at this support area, with a break meaning that we are headed towards 1.1320.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s Europe’s turn to release inflation data in the form of the Final CPI but this release is likely to have a lower impact than the American one because German inflation is already released. The scheduled time is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is -0.1%, same as previous; higher numbers are beneficial for the euro.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, expected to show 88.8, slightly better than the previous 87.2. Since consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending, higher numbers will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair was affected by the U.S. CPI release but to a lower extent and price action was choppy after touching 1.5500 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The pair showed rejection at 1.5500 by creating two pin bars (candles with small bodies and a long upper wick) but we can also see a long wick for the last bearish candle so the next move remains uncertain. The Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 70 level so we can still see a drop if 1.5500 holds and rejects price again. On the other hand, a move above this level would probably bring in more buyers and would push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for the Pound so all eyes will be on the U.S. release but also on the technical factors.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:28 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, AS RESISTANCE HOLDS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Europe’s Final version of the CPI came out Friday with the value anticipated by analysts and the event went mostly unnoticed but a better than expected U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey strengthened the US Dollar later in the day.



Technical Outlook

Overall Friday was choppy, without major advances made by either side but two four-hour candles touched 1.1380 and closed as pin bars (long upper wicks). This shows rejection and also that 1.1380 is now resistance. Price is now below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and heading towards 1.1320, but the Stochastic has reached oversold so the chart offers mixed signals. Nonetheless, the short term bias is still bearish and 1.1320 is a probable destination but a move above the 50 EMA will probably extend into 1.1380.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news announcements for both the Euro and the Dollar so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical factors.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a slow day Friday, with some US Dollar strength, mostly triggered by the Consumer Sentiment survey. Resistance is still holding, support wasn’t threatened and the pair is ranging on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5500 proves to be strong for medium term price action as several attempts to break it resulted in moves lower. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving downwards, supporting a move into 1.5370 but the bears seem to lack strength and momentum is low. Price action is likely to be choppy, with a slightly bearish bias. 

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the Dollar, the Pound is not affected by any economic indicators today so we expect slow and possibly choppy movement, with the main focus being on the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADE AWAY, A NEW DOWNTREND LOOMS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The fundamental scene didn’t influence much yesterday’s movement but throughout the day the bears controlled the pair and managed to threaten immediate support.



Technical Outlook

If the bears manage to break 1.1320, the pair is likely to visit 1.1280 again and then to head towards 1.1215 and the bullish trend line. Even if this scenario comes true, we can expect retracements along the way, considering that the Stochastic is already oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level. First resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the U.S. Building Permits is the day’s most notable event, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is 1.16M, almost identical with the previous 1.17M (annualized numbers); higher numbers show a thriving construction sector and can strengthen the US Dollar. Usually the impact is mild if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The Pound headed higher yesterday but the key resistance at 1.5500 couldn’t be broken, signalling that the bulls might be running out of steam.



Technical Outlook

We expect a bearish bounce at 1.5500, which will probably take price close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, the pair is still in a medium term uptrend and no significant low has been created so the possibility of a break of 1.5500 is still valid, but a true break should be confirmed by a re-test from above, visible at least on the lower time frames.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 10:00 am GMT before the Treasury Select Committee. The main topic will be the Bank of England Bill and the speech can have strong impact on the Pound so caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:26 pm
FOREX NEWS: SELLERS STRUGGLE FOR CONTROL, BUYERS STILL RESILIENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair retraced higher yesterday after a bounce at support but resistance also proved too hard to break and sent price lower again. The U.S. Building Permits were fewer than anticipated but still close to analysts’ expectations so the impact was muted.



Technical Outlook

Following an oversold condition of the Stochastic and an encounter with 1.1320 support, the pair moved north but the climb was reversed at 1.1380 resistance. We anticipate another move into 1.1320 and a break of this area, heading towards 1.1280 but for this to happen, the bullish trend line seen on the chart above must be broken. On the other hand, a move above 1.1380 followed by a re-test from above, would suggest that 1.1450 is the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar so traders will focus mainly on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s testimony about the Bank of England Bill did not create strong movement yesterday and the pair ranged for most of the day, having another encounter with 1.5500 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5500 was touched again but no bullish break occurred so our view remains mostly unchanged, anticipating a bearish bounce and a move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A bullish break of 1.5500 should be followed by a re-test from above, in order to confirm we are dealing with a real breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 5:00 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Cairncross Memorial Lecture, in Oxford. We don’t expect strong movement but caution is recommended nonetheless.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:55 pm
FOREX NEWS: VAGUENESS AHEAD OF ECB PRESS CONFERENCE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was ranging, with the pair confined between resistance and a bullish trend line. The lack of major announcements contributed to the slow movement.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1380 was almost touched yesterday and the pair bounced lower, but the bullish trend line was not broken so the pair is still moving without clear direction. Also, the oscillators are not in extreme territory so they don’t offer strong clues and this means we will probably have to wait for a technical level (1.1380 or the trend line) to be broken before we will see a more decisive move.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank will announce at 11:45 am GMT the interest rate and although no change is expected (current 0.05%), the event is likely to generate strong moves. At 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference that accompanies the rate announcement and this is another reason for increased volatility. Journalists will ask questions regarding the ECB monetary policy and the answers given by Mario Draghi usually have a very strong impact on the pair’s short to medium term movement.


GBP/USD

The pair slowly descended, coming closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but then a climb followed and overall we had a choppy trading session, without major breakouts.



Technical Outlook

After the near bounce at the 50 EMA, the pair seems to be headed once again towards the resistance at 1.5500. If this potential encounter with resistance doesn’t result in a clean break, the chances of a drop will increase substantially. A major role in today’s price movement will be played by the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales numbers come out, expected to show an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.2%. Because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity, higher numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:26 pm
FOREX NEWS: FINALLY OUT OF THE RANGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow until the Draghi “storm” hit the markets, sending the euro tumbling below several support levels. The ECB President mentioned talks about a taking the deposit rate further into negative territory and this was the main reason for euro weakness.



Technical Outlook

Three horizontal support levels have been broken yesterday, as well as the bullish trend line and now the medium term outlook is bearish, aiming for 1.1100. That being said, keep in mind that strong moves are often followed by a pullback in the opposite direction or by a period of consolidation and sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index has entered oversold but it’s still going downwards and the same is true for the Stochastic (which is not oversold) so the downside momentum can still continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced, expected to show a value of 50.2 and half an hour later the indicator with the same name but for the German economy is released, with an anticipated value of 51.8. These are leading indicators of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually higher values strengthen the euro but the impact is low if the actual value matches analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed an unexpected increase (actual 1.9%, forecast 0.3%), strengthening the Pound substantially and breaching 1.5500 resistance once again. However, the climb was short lived and the pair soon reversed.



Technical Outlook

Yet another encounter with 1.5500 resulted in a failed break and the pair descended below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but this dynamic support is not yet broken and can still push price higher. If today we will see a clear break of the moving average, the next destination is likely to be 1.5330, with the first hurdle at 1.5370.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by scheduled economic announcements, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:37 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, BEARS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s economic announcements didn’t affect the pair significantly and the bearish momentum that was started Thursday continued throughout the day, after a brief retracement to the upside.



Technical Outlook

The massive drop seen during the last 2 trading days brought both oscillators in oversold territory and this fact, combined with the level of support at 1.1000 might generate a bullish bounce. If this comes true, the first level where downside movement will possibly resume is 1.1100. We expect a break of 1.1000 in the near future, but it should be confirmed by a re-test, at least on the lower time frames.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, expected to show a value of 108.1, slightly lower than the previous 108.5. This survey is highly respected due to its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that will rate the current economic conditions as well as expectations for the next 6 months. Usually, higher values are beneficial for the euro and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound Friday and the pair travelled below two important levels, opening the door for a new downtrend.



Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure is still strong and the pair is now moving south with good momentum which we expect to continue throughout the day. However, the bullish trend line seen on the chart above might hinder such downside movement if it’s not broken soon or if price shows rejection around it. A bounce higher will find potential resistance at 1.5330 followed by 1.5370; the oscillators are approaching an extreme reading so we may see an encounter with the levels mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced by the technical side today, as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic announcements.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:18 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. DURABLE GOODS, U.K. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – WE’RE IN FOR A BUSY DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a slow session yesterday, but completed a retracement after touching 1.1000 support. The German IFO Business Climate survey showed a value close to analysts’ expectations so the impact was muted.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1000 offered good support and generated a bullish retracement which may extend into the resistance at 1.1100. The fact that both oscillators are in oversold territory and moving upwards increases the chances of a bigger move north but the overall picture remains bearish and we expect at least another encounter with 1.1000 if not a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show a -1.1% change (previous -2.3%). These are orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years, with higher values showing increased economic confidence and activity and thus a stronger dollar.

At 2:00 pm GMT the CB Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinion of about 5,000 households about the current economic conditions in the US. High levels of confidence suggest that consumers will spend more in the near future and this usually benefits the greenback so values above the forecast 102.5 may bring the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly on a bullish path yesterday, but no major breakouts occurred and overall we had a slow session.



Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we talked about rejected price higher, sending the pair into the resistance at 1.5370 but the bullish pullback stopped there. Today we expect another attempt to break the bullish trend line and the bearish momentum started Friday to continue. To the upside 1.5370 remains resistance but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be hard for the bulls to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, thus higher numbers than the expected 0.6% (previous 0.7%) usually strengthen the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW OR GETS A PUSH. THE FED DECIDES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite worse than expected US economic data, the pair moved lower yesterday and this shows the greenback possesses underlying strength and that we are likely to see further downside.



Technical Outlook

The bearish movement is likely to continue today and 1.1000 is the first target. The Stochastic is clearly out of oversold so a bearish cross will announce a possible fall, but the Relative Strength Index is still close to its 30 level and overall the picture offered by the oscillators is pretty blurry. Price action might be slow during the day until the big Fed event scheduled in the afternoon.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. Unlike in September, a change is not expected (currently <0.25%) but a surprise will generate huge movement on all US Dollar pairs. At the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, outlining the reasons that stood behind the rate decision.


GBP/USD

The Pound was negatively affected by a disappointing value of the British Gross Domestic Product (forecast 0.6%; actual 0.5%) that generated a bearish trading session and a break of the bullish trend line.



Technical Outlook

Price is below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the oscillators are curved downwards but not oversold and the bullish trend line is broken so all things point towards a bearish market and probably an encounter with 1.5200 in the near future. If the pair starts to move to the upside, first resistance will be offered by 1.5330 and the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements but the pair will be directly affected by Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate and by the FOMC Rate Statement.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:55 pm
FOREX NEWS: END OF YEAR RATE HIKE STILL ON THE TABLE. LOOK FOR MORE US DOLLAR STRENGTH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Before the Fed released their rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement, price action was slow and choppy but as anticipated, the release created strong volatility, although the rate was not changed. The Fed made it clear that a potential hike is tightly correlated to jobs and inflation.



Technical Outlook

The US Dollar strengthened on optimism that a December rate hike is still on the table and the pair broke through 1.1000 with ease after a close encounter with the resistance at 1.1100 earlier during the day. Our bias for the pair is negative, expecting a touch of 1.0820 during the days to come but the strong bearish move is likely to see a rubber band effect and a pullback higher before the mentioned target can be touched. If this occurs, the first potential resistance is located at 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will release at 12:30 pm GMT the Advance Gross Domestic Product which is the first in a series of three versions but also the most important. Values above the expected 1.6% usually strengthen the greenback.

Half an hour later, at 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out, expected to show -0.1% while the previous was -0.2%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation and is currently considered too low, higher values will most likely strengthen the euro while the opposite is true for lower values.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained ahead of the FOMC release but the US Dollar erased all these gains when the Statement came out.



Technical Outlook

During yesterday’s movement, 1.5330 was confirmed as resistance and now we can expect this level to reject price if touched in the future. As for today, our outlook is bearish, expecting a continuation of the move started by the FOMC Statement; the pair is likely to come closer to 1.5200 but probably a retracement will occur before this level can be touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has scheduled a light calendar for today so the main focus will be on the US Advance GDP and the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:17 pm
FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE, US DOLLAR TAKES BACK CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI was slightly better than anticipated while the US Advance GDP showed a disappointing value and all this, combined with the rubber band effect we discussed yesterday, created a bullish retracement.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.0900 as support and bounced higher, mostly due to the reasons outlined above. Now we observe a bullish divergence (price is making lower lows but the Relative Strength Index is making higher lows) so the current move up might extend into 1.1000 which may turn into resistance. The overall picture still remains bearish, with 1.0900 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Retail Sales come out today at 7:00 am GMT, with a big increase anticipated, from the previous -0.4% to 0.4%. Because sales made at retail levels are a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers usually strengthen the euro. Later at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show 0.0% compared to the previous -0.1%. Higher numbers for this indicator usually benefit the euro as well.


GBP/USD

The Pound also benefited from disappointing U.S. data and the pair rallied but the move wasn’t significant and first resistance wasn’t threatened.



Technical Outlook

The pair created minor support around 1.5250 and this is now the first target of the day. The current up move could extend into 1.5330 resistance but we don’t expect this level to be broken considering that overall the short term trend is bearish and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is descending and will probably offer resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases scheduled for today so the pair will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:30 pm
FOREX NEWS: TOO HIGH, TOO FAST – BEARISH ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: For the most part of Friday the pair had a bullish bias, continuing to climb after the bounce at 1.0900 support. However, later in the afternoon the sellers stepped in and erased some of the gains.



Technical Outlook

The bullish divergence mentioned last week was a warning sign about an extended up move but now we note bearish divergence (price is making a lower high but the Relative Strength Index is making a higher high) and this could mean that we will see another drop. Price stopped very close to 1.1000 but if early in the day we will see a move below this level, probably most of the day will be controlled by the bears, heading into 1.0900 (probably such a move will not be completed in one day).

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate the current level of business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers above the forecast 50.0 are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is higher if the actual number differs significantly from the analysts’ consensus.


GBP/USD

The Pound exhibited tremendous strength Friday and totally reversed the bearish momentum seen earlier, breaking several resistances and opening the door for more upside movement.



Technical Outlook

The strong move seen Friday is likely to retrace lower before heading higher and the first potential bounce area is 1.5370 combined with the recently broken 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are touching their overbought levels, increasing the chances of a move south. A key level of resistance remains 1.5500 so if price heads there without retracement, it will probably bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will also release their Manufacturing PMI earlier in the day, at 9:30 am GMT. Similar to the U.S. indicator, this index usually strengthens the currency if higher than anticipated values are posted. The forecast is 51.3, a slight change from the previous 51.5.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDING UP. BULLS STILL ACTIVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released yesterday was close to analysts’ expectations and the impact wasn’t tremendous. Overall the session was choppy, with slow movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the support at 1.1000 but movement was mostly sideways and the bearish divergence is still present, making us anticipate a drop below the mentioned level. A move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.1100 would invalidate a bearish scenario and would shift the short to medium term bias in favour of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases for the euro and the greenback but late afternoon at 7:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at an event titled the European Cultural Days 2015, in Frankfurt. The late hour and the fact that the speech’s topic is not monetary policy, may translate in a lower than usual impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a good first part of yesterday, on the back of a better than expected value posted by the British Manufacturing PMI (actual 55.5, forecast 51.3), so the pair touched 1.5500 resistance, but failed to break it and retraced lower in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

As anticipated, a touch of a strong resistance like 1.5500, combined with the overbought condition of the oscillators, triggered a move south. If the support zone created around 1.5415 can reject price higher, then we will probably see a break of 1.5500 resistance; otherwise we expect a touch of the bullish trend line which was broken earlier but can still offer some form of support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, with an expected value of 58.9, lower than the previous 59.9. Same as with the other PMIs, higher values are beneficial for the Pound and the impact will be bigger if the actual value differs a lot from analysts’ expectations.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT – A STEP CLOSER TO A RATE DECISION


EUR/USD


Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the pair descended so the bears regained control over short term price action and we expect the downside to continue.



Technical Outlook

The bearish divergence we talked about a day earlier proved a reliable sign for a drop and now the pair is trading well below 1.1000, headed towards 1.0900. The oscillators are not oversold and the pair is moving with good speed so a stronger retracement is likely to happen around 1.0900. A sudden reversal of direction will probably find resistance near 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, then later in the day at 1:15 pm GMT we will take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This is a report issued by a privately owned company and doesn’t have the strong impact of the government data which comes out Friday but numbers above the anticipated 183K usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, on the topic of bank regulation. The impact on the greenback can be strong so caution is recommended, as always when heads of central banks speak publicly.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out very close to analysts’ consensus and the impact was muted but the pair traveled south for the most part of yesterday, with some bullish price action in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5415, piercing through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the previously broken trend line but signs of rejection are present as the last four hour candle has a very small body and a long wick. If during the day the low of the last candle is broken, we expect a touch of 1.5330, otherwise we will most likely see a choppy trading day.

Fundamental Outlook

The last British PMI in the series is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey gauges the optimism of purchasing managers regarding the services sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers than the anticipated 54.6 will most likely strengthen the Pound.
GDMFX
Broj poruka : 408
Points : 1169
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:05 pm
FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE POUND: BOE INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION REPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair continued its descent yesterday and was not much affected by the economic releases or by the speeches of the two heads of central banks, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi.



Technical Outlook

The bears scored an important victory yesterday by breaking 1.0900 support and now the pair is headed towards 1.0820. We anticipate a touch and later a break of this level but before that can happen, the pair is likely to stall or even retrace higher, with 1.0900 zone being a good place for downside movement to resume. The oscillators are entering oversold, warning about a potential bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Retail Sales are released at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show an increase of 3.0% from the previous 2.3% (annualized numbers). Such a climb would suggest that economic activity is increasing and would be beneficial for the euro.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI showed a value of 54.9 yesterday, close to analysts’ estimation of 54.6 and the Pound didn’t react strongly; the later part of the day was controlled by the bears who managed to take price below support.



Technical Outlook

During the last couple of days, price created minor support at 1.5360 and this will be the first barrier that needs to be broken en route to 1.5330. The pair is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the oscillators moving downwards, without being oversold so the bearish momentum is likely to continue.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains a 2-year outlook for economic growth and inflation. At the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change anticipated from the current 0.50%) and a breakdown of the members’ rate votes. Later at 12:45 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report; strong moves are possible during these events and caution is recommended throughout the day.
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