Banx broker
Advertisement
Share
View previous topicGo downView next topic
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 10, 2017 4:04 pm
FOREX NEWS: NFP REPORT – FINISHING THE WEEK WITH A BANG


EUR/USD


Forex News: After reaching the support at 1.0525 the pair immediately jumped higher, boosted by a stronger Euro. The ECB decided to maintain the rate unchanged, as expected but Draghi’s press conference was the main catalyst for the move.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair is entering a ranging period, capped by 1.0525 as support and 1.0630 as resistance. Yesterday’s price action clearly showed that 1.0525 is still a strong support and that it may reject falling price in the future but for the time being the Euro is strengthening and the pair seems headed towards 1.0630. Today’s direction will be heavily affected by the U.S. jobs data and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is released today at 1:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important jobs data in the U.S. and usually has a very strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher values than the forecast 185K, strengthening it.


GBP/USD

As it was expected, the pair retraced higher yesterday, following an oversold condition of the oscillators. However, movement was rather slow and without conviction from either side.



Technical Outlook

We will probably see an extended period when the pair will remain trapped between 1.2215 resistance and 1.2125 support, unless today’s NFP can trigger strong movement and a clear breakout. Both oscillators are moving upwards, from their respective oversold levels, thus increasing the chances of a move into resistance but the medium-term downtrend is down and this makes another drop probable. Our bias is slightly bearish, expecting the NFP release for further clues.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers. The expected change is -0.6% from the previous 2.1% and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound but the pair will probably respond stronger to the NFP report later in the day.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:54 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKNESS – A TEMPORARY AFFAIR?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar softened Friday against the Euro, despite the Non-Farm Payrolls report posting a number of 235K jobs, higher than the expected 196K. The weakness was mostly generated by a drop in hourly wages.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s strong climb took the pair above 1.0680 resistance and sent the two oscillators in overbought territory. This move is likely to retrace lower and to find support at 1.0630 but if price continues higher, we don’t expect it to pass 1.0710 before a retracement occurs. Keep in mind that the NFP report was better than expected and this may trigger a delayed strengthening effect on the US Dollar, so a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not out of the question. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Labs for Innovation Science and Policy Fostering, in Frankfurt. Although the topic is not directly tied to the financial markets, caution is recommended, as always when Draghi speaks. Other than this, no major events will affect the currencies today.


GBP/USD

The pair was mostly unaffected by the Non-Farm Payrolls and remained in a relatively tight range for the entire duration of Friday’s trading session, without threatening support or resistance.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t give a lot of clues about the next move and our bias is neutral until 1.2215 resistance or 1.2125 support is broken. The pair is in a medium term downtrend but the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are exiting oversold, moving up and thus increasing the chance of a test of 1.2215. Given the lack of major economic indicator releases, we don’t expect to see a clean break of either support or resistance today.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s economic calendar is light and the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 14, 2017 4:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL FEEBLE, RESISTANCE EXPOSED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair pushed into 1.0710 resistance but there, an expected retracement took place and now price is moving lower, below 1.0680. Mario Draghi’s speech didn’t have a strong impact and yesterday’s price direction was mostly driven by the technical aspect.



Technical Outlook

As seen from the chart above, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index reached overbought almost at the same time and this also coincided with the touch of 1.0710 resistance. These factors generated a bearish move, which is considered a retracement at the moment, not a reversal. We expect 1.0710 to be tested again today and if the bulls fail to take price above it, this will suggest that a reversal is in the making and 1.0630 will become the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the day is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 German investors and analysts that tries to gauge their opinions regarding a 6-month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the Euro. The time of the release is 10:00 am GMT and the expected number is 13.2.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Producer Price Index, which tracks changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. It acts as a leading indicator of inflation because a higher producer price will eventually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is a change of 0.1% (previous 0.6%).


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher, as it was signaled by the long distance traveled to the downside and by the bottoming pattern formed near 1.2125 support. Overall the bias remains bearish after the retracement becomes exhausted.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb took the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now the candles are showing long wicks, which is a sign of indecision; however, this could be just an accumulation for a push above the 50 EMA and above 1.2250 resistance. If this is the case and the two forms of resistance are broken, the pair is likely to climb back towards 1.2350 but this distance will not be traveled in one day unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases, thus the deciding factors for direction will be the technical aspect and the U.S. Producer Price Index.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: FED IN THE SPOTLIGHT, US DOLLAR SET FOR BIG MOVES. RATE HIKE EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: European data disappointed yesterday, while the U.S. Producer Price Index showed a better than expected change, triggering a drop into support and a trading session mostly controlled by the bears.



Technical Outlook

Price is testing the support at 1.0630 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be difficult to break. The current level was touched several times in the recent past and almost every time the pair had a strong reaction to it, so the same may be happening now; a bounce here is very possible but on the other hand, a break followed by a move below the 50 EMA would be a clear sign of strength from the part of the sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a key day for the US Dollar, because the Fed will meet to announce the interest rate at 6:00 pm GMT and Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference half an hour later, discussing the rate decision. A rate hike is expected, from the current <0.75% to <1.00% and if this prediction comes true, the US Dollar will likely strengthen and a lot of volatility will be generated. We recommend caution if trading during the event.


GBP/USD

Price dropped yesterday, partly due to technical reasons and partly due to Brexit fears, so now the pair is in a bearish environment, testing support.



Technical Outlook

After failing to stay above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is testing 1.2125 and the US Dollar seems to have regained some of its strength. However, a stronger support is located at 1.2090 but it must be noted that the pair is already showing signs of rejection at 1.2125. Today’s price direction will be mainly affected by the fundamental side but the levels to watch remain 1.2090 as support and 1.2250 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT we take a look at the UK unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment benefits. The forecast is 3.2K (previous -42.4K) and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound. Of course, later in the day the pair will be directly affected by the Fed rate decision.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:27 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BATTERED AS FED HIKES, BUT EXPECTATIONS DISAPPOINT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar came under heavy pressure yesterday as the Fed decided to hike from <0.75% to <1.00% but expectations for 2017 remained at only 2 more hikes, which was generally perceived as dovish and was the main reason for greenback weakness.



Technical Outlook

After failing to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair jumped and moved strongly to touch 1.0710 resistance despite a Fed rate hike. If the current resistance is broken, we expect price to re-test it form above, thus confirming it as support; if the pair can firmly remain above 1.0710, then 1.0800 will become the first bullish target but until 1.0710 is broken, a reversal can take place. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of two medium-impact indicators: the Building Permits (anticipated number 1.26M) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (anticipated number 30.2). The former shows the annualized number of residential building permits issued during the previous month and the latter is a survey or purchasing managers that acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Higher numbers for any of these indicators usually generate US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness pushed the pair higher yesterday, taking it into the resistance at 1.2300. It looks like the bearish move is over and the market is turning, with the bulls taking control.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Dollar took a blow from Fed expectations of only 2 more rate hikes this year. This puts control in hands of the bulls and makes us anticipate a break of 1.2300, followed by a move into 1.2350 but the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching overbought and usually after a strong move, price retraces to the opposite side. This means that 1.2250 may be touched but as long as the level remains intact, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT the interest rate, accompanied by a Monetary Policy Summary and a breakdown of the MPC members’ rate votes. The rate is not expected to change form the current 0.25% and we don’t expect to get any clear hints towards a near-future hike or cut, so the event will probably create just temporary volatility.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:24 pm
FOREX NEWS: WEAKNESS CONTINUES, RETRACEMENTS IN SIGHT AS OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT LEVELS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair pushed higher yesterday, above 1.0710 and returned to re-test the level from above, thus establishing it as support. The economic data released yesterday was mixed and didn’t have a substantial impact on the pair.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls are in clear control of the pair and now that 1.0710 is support, we expect price to head towards 1.0800 in the medium term. However, it must be noted that both oscillators are approaching overbought and the Relative Strength Index is also showing bearish divergence (price is making a higher high and the oscillator is making a lower high), which is a signal that a move south may soon follow. If this potential move extends below 1.0710 and 1.0680, the 50 EMA will become the first place where bullish action may resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The University of Michigan will release today at 2:00 pm GMT a Consumer Sentiment survey, which gauges the opinions of about 500 consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. Usually a higher number than the forecast 97.1 shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but to a limited extent.

Also today the G20 Meetings start, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Volatility may increase, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to maintain the rate unchanged but one of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the need for a rate hike (previously all agreed to hold rates) and this triggered Pound strength that took the pair above another resistance level.



Technical Outlook

Although the Pound is in control and several resistance levels have been broken, we expect a move lower, possibly after 1.2385 is reached. Supporting this view is the fact that both oscillators are approaching overbought and also, price travelled a long distance without a deeper pullback. A good target for this potential move down is 1.2300.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today but United Kingdom representatives will attend the G20 Meetings and this may be a cause for increased volatility.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:31 pm
DAILY ANALYSIS: PULLBACKS IN SIGHT, AS OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT LEVELS


EUR/USD


Daily Analysis: The Consumer Sentiment survey released Friday by the University of Michigan didn’t have a strong impact on the US Dollar, mostly because it came very close to analysts’ expectations, but the pair retraced lower due to overbought conditions signalled by both oscillators.



Technical Outlook

The move lower seen Friday should be considered just a simple retracement at the moment, not a reversal but it is very possible to extend into the support at 1.0710. As long as this barrier remains intact, our view is bullish, anticipating a move into 1.0800; however, such a long distance will not be travelled today probably, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases, a fact which may generate ranging price action. Also, the oscillators are just coming out of overbought, favouring a touch of support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect because the United States and Europe have a lacklustre economic calendar, without any major releases.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy Friday but the buyers managed to remain in control and to keep the pair above 1.2350. Rejection is present and the upside momentum seems to fade away but the medium term bias is still bullish.



Technical Outlook

Long wicks have started to appear on the last few candles and both oscillators have reached overbought, with price at resistance. These factors suggest that a deeper retracement will soon follow, so we don’t expect to see a break of 1.2420 today but if the pair does move above this level, the extent should be limited. After the potential retracement, we expect the pair to move above 1.2420 and into 1.2480 but this will not happen today unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical side will be the main market mover.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:21 pm
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS. US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action slowed down and the pair retraced after making another attempt to break last week’s high. The fundamental scene was lacklustre, without major announcements.



Technical Outlook

Price printed a lower high, which is a sign that the bullish run may come to an end or at least that we will see a move into 1.0710 support. By the time price reaches support, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will be in close vicinity of 1.0710, thus creating a confluence zone that will increase the chances of a bounce higher. A move below the moving average and the mentioned level would show that the balance of power is tipping towards the sellers; however, the pair is still in a good uptrend, so a move above the minor resistance around 1.0775-1.0780 will add more strength and would make 1.0800 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the ECOFIN Meetings start and will be attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The matters discussed may have an impact on the Euro but the meetings are closed to the press and a formal statement is released at the end of the day.


GBP/USD

Price pierced 1.2420 resistance yesterday but in the afternoon the US Dollar showed signs of recovery and pushed the pair lower. The bearish move is considered a simple retracement, which was overdue, considering the overbought position of the oscillators.



Technical Outlook

The move lower seen yesterday was mostly generated by the fact that price travelled a long distance north without a proper retracement and was signalled earlier by the overbought condition of the oscillators. However, the pair remains in a short-to-medium term uptrend and this means that once the overbought condition is cleared and a notable level is touched, we may see another push higher. The first level of importance is 1.2350 and there we expect to see a resumption of the uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the British Consumer Price Index is today’s highlight, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 2.1% from the previous 1.8%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and can have a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers usually strengthening it so be careful if you plan on trading at the time of release.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:10 pm
FOREX NEWS: POUND POSTS FRESH HIGHS ON THE BACK OF SOLID INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: After moving very close to 1.0710 support yesterday, the pair jumped higher and briefly took out 1.0800 resistance, in a session that was controlled by the bulls almost entirely.



Technical Outlook


The resistance at 1.0800 was breached yesterday but after moving above it, the pair returned below and is now showing some signs of exhaustion, with the Relative Strength Index continuing to hover near its overbought level. Considering that 1.0800 is both psychological and technical resistance, we expect to see a deeper retracement from here, and a potential touch of 1.0775, which was previously resistance and now may turn into support. Overall the bias is bullish and the uptrend is healthy but in need of a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, with the most notable one being the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 5.59M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold, excluding new constructions and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts figures above expectations but the impact is not very high.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index released yesterday exceeded expectations, showing a 2.3% change and this was the main reason why the Pound had another solid day against an already soft Dollar.



Technical Outlook

After bouncing around 1.2350 support, the pair shot up through 1.2420 and reached 1.2480 resistance. In the past the pair spent a lot of time moving above and below this level, so we are likely to see some reaction this time as well; also, the Relative Strength Index is touching its overbought level, signalling that a move south may be next. If the current bullish impulse continues past 1.2480, we expect the extent to be limited and followed by a pullback but overall the bias remains bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases, so the technical aspect will be the main driver behind price action today.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:46 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLISH MOMENTUM WANES, BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair slowed down yesterday as the upside momentum faded and the bears stepped in, creating a pullback. The U.S. House data was softer than anticipated but the impact was mild and this contributed to the overall slow session.



Technical Outlook

The pair retraced lower but bounced perfectly at 1.0775, which is now support and a place where the pair might show some interesting movement in the future. The bias remains bullish and we expect to see a touch of 1.0830, followed by 1.0850 but a move below 1.0775 would invalidate such a scenario for the time being and would make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference. We don’t expect this speech to trigger strong movement but it all depends on the matters she will discuss and her attitude; nonetheless, caution is recommended.

The release of the U.S. New Home Sales is today’s other notable event, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 566K. The impact is usually medium but a reading above expectations is considered bullish for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had trouble breaking the resistance zone around 1.2480 and retraced lower yesterday, for a perfect touch of 1.2420. For now support is holding and the bias remains bullish.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2420 and the consequent move up show that the US Dollar is still weak and that we will soon see a break of 1.2480, which will open the door for a move into 1.2550. Both oscillators remain very close to overbought and this increases the chances of an extended move lower but even if this happens, as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the overall bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets during the previous month. A higher change than the forecast 0.4% usually brings Pound strength and the opposite is true for a lower reading.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, AHEAD OF EUROPEAN PMIS, U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar remained mostly indifferent to Yellen’s speech and to the better than expected figure posted by the U.S. New Home Sales. All this combined with the lack of major news from the Euro side, generated a slow and choppy trading session.



Technical Outlook

It’s becoming clearer that the bullish momentum has faded as the buyers failed to reach 1.0830 and the candles started to show long wicks in their upper side. However, the sellers also lack strength and determination so currently there is no short-term clear bias but as long as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is below price and angled upwards, the overall trend is up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT two medium-impact indicators are released: the European Manufacturing PMI (expected reading 55.3) and Services PMI (expected reading 55.4). These are surveys of purchasing managers that focus on the health of the two sectors and usually strengthen the Euro if they show a better than expected reading but the releases tend to be overlooked if the actual figure matches or comes very close to analysts’ expectations.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.1%. The impact is medium to high, with numbers above forecast strengthening the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday, fuelled by better than expected British Retail Sales (actual 1.4%; forecast 0.4%). Resistance is clearly broken but the oscillators are still overbought.



Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the resistance at 1.2480 but most of yesterday’s move was generated by the solid British Retail Sales reading and from a strictly technical point of view, the need for a retracement lower has increased. Both oscillators are overbought and price has travelled a long distance without a proper pullback so today we expect a move south. The levels of interest are 1.2550 as resistance and 1.2480 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders will be the main factors that will affect the pair’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, US DOLLAR PUSHES BOTH PAIRS LOWER


EUR/USD


Forex News: German PMI surveys released Friday showed better readings than analysts had expected and on the other hand the US Dollar remained mostly unaffected by the Durable Goods Orders. All this generated another bullish session, with the pair testing resistance.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0800 was again breached but the bulls couldn’t push price higher, which is a sign of weakness and an early indication that we will probably see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average today. As an alternate scenario, a continuation of the bullish move will probably extend into 1.0830, possibly 1.0850 but we don’t expect the upper resistance to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses regarding current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 111.2 and usually the Euro is positively impacted by numbers that exceed the forecast.


GBP/USD

For the most part of Friday’s trading session the pair moved sideways after establishing resistance at 1.2530. The overall bias remains bullish but the current move looks like the beginning of a deeper retracement.



Technical Outlook

If the bears manage to break 1.2480 and re-test it from below, thus establishing the level as resistance, then the next target will become the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which will probably climb above 1.2420 by the time price descends to touch it. It must be noted however that the pair is in a clear uptrend from a medium term perspective and this means that once the 50 EMA is touched, we may see rejection and a potential move up.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by any important economic releases today, so the technical aspect will be the main market mover.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:02 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, PULLBACKS STILL A NECESSITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar was battered into a corner during yesterday’s trading session, following healthcare discussions in the U.S. over the weekend. The Euro benefited from a higher reading for the German IFO survey and all this took the pair significantly higher.



Technical Outlook

The week opened with a gap and the pair shot through 1.0830 and 1.0850 resistances, so the expected retracement lower didn’t occur. The move was mostly generated by fundamental (political) reasons and now a pullback is even more likely, considering that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are in deep overbought territory and the pair travelled a long distance without retracement. It must also be noted that weekly gaps are usually closed – meaning that price will return to the place where the gap originated – but the timeframe for this potential move is not known.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the Conference Board Inc. will release the U.S. Consumer Confidence, a survey of about 5,000 households, focused on their opinion regarding economic conditions. If consumers show confidence in their financial situation, they are likely to spend more, thus boosting consumer spending which represents an important part of overall economic activity. The expected value for today is 113.9 and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against most of its counterparts and the Pound was no exception, thus the pair climbed strongly yesterday, for almost the entire trading session.



Technical Outlook

After establishing 1.2480 as support the pair rallied and broke through 1.2550, marking an important victory for the bulls. However, even before this last climb, price was in need of a retracement and now the chance for a move lower has increased, considering how much it moved to the upside but also the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. These factors make us believe that today we will see a pullback that will have 1.2550 as target. To the upside the first level of importance is located at 1.2675 but we don’t believe it will be touched before a move down occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so the U.S. Confidence survey and the technical aspect will be the main market movers.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:25 pm
FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, SUPPORT TARGETED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey released yesterday showed a reading of 125.6, above analysts’ expectation of just 113.9 but surprisingly the release didn’t create strong movement and the pair drifted sideways almost the entire day.



Technical Outlook

The pair created minor resistance at 1.0905 and is now testing 1.0850 from above, trying to establish it as support. If the level will become support, pushing price higher, we expect to see another encounter with 1.0905 zone but it must be noted that the weekly gap is still open and the pair is still in need of a deeper retracement. The uptrend is still strong but our bias is bearish for today, anticipating a move below 1.0850.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Pending Home Sales are today’s only notable release, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 2.3%. The indicator shows changes in the total number of houses under contract to be sold and usually has a low-to-medium impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the pair dropped below 1.2550, partly helped by a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey that strengthened the US Dollar and took price below the previous resistance.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair printed a lower high and broke below 1.2550, which was prior resistance. This type of behaviour shows that a deeper retracement is underway and makes 1.2480 the first target, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the pair reaches these targets, we expect it to climb again, considering that a clear uptrend is still in place.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Net Lending to Individuals, a report that shows changes in the total credit issued to consumers. A higher value shows that consumer spending is likely to increase in the future and usually this strengthens the Pound but the indicator is known to have just a medium impact. The forecast for today is 4.9 Billion, compared to the previous 4.8 Billion.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:34 pm
FOREX NEWS: PAIRS UNDER HEAVY SELLING PRESSURE AHEAD OF GERMAN INFLATION DATA AND UNITED STATES GDP


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Pending Home Sales released yesterday showed a solid reading, increasing by 5.5% (forecast 2.3%) but the US Dollar started to strengthen even before the release, breaking several support levels as well as the 50 EMA.



Technical Outlook

For quite a while we expected a move lower, due to the overbought position of the two oscillators but also because weekly gaps tend to be closed (price returns to where the gap originated). Now the gap is closed and the retracement complete but considering that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken decisively, we may see this pullback turn into a full scale reversal. If the pair cannot climb above the 50 EMA and if the line turns into resistance, we may see a drop into 1.0700 zone, otherwise uptrend resumption is underway.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation in Germany and accounts for a big part of overall European inflation. The expected change is 0.4% and readings above forecast usually generate Euro strength.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Final Gross Domestic Product, an indicator that shows changes in the value of goods and services produced by an economy and acts as the main gauge of economic health. The expected change is 2.0% and higher numbers are beneficial to the greenback.


GBP/USD

The sellers stepped back in, taking the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and both oscillators moved out of the overbought territory where they previously spent a long time. The pair is now showing signs of recovery but signals are mixed.



Technical Outlook

After breaking the 50 EMA, price touched the support at 1.2385 and bounced higher, into the resistance at 1.2480. These levels will be important for short to medium term movement because rejection is visible at both of them, so we may get a trading session with price trapped between them. If 1.2385 will be broken to the downside, we can consider the move a reversal of the uptrend and we can expect to see lower prices in the medium term.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, thus the technical aspect and the U.S. GDP will be the main drivers behind price action.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:39 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar had another strong day against the Euro, fuelled by a better than expected GDP, while the single currency took a blow from thin German inflation data, so the pair moved closer to support.



Technical Outlook

Price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.0775, showing that we may be dealing with a reversal, not a simple retracement. For today we expect an encounter with 1.0710 support but it must be noted that now both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have become oversold, signalling that a bounce at support may happen. Also, the pair has been in an uptrend from the beginning of the month and this increases the chance or another move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:00 am GMT we take a look at European inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. Because the German CPI, which accounts for a big part of overall EU inflation, was released yesterday, the impact of today’s announcement may be somewhat muted but either way, numbers above the forecast 1.8% usually generate Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound rallied yesterday, taking the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2480 resistance, thus marking the end of the bearish retracement.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2385 followed by the bullish break of the 50 EMA shows that the Pound is not ready to give up control just yet and makes 1.2550 the first target for today. It is very possible to see a re-test of 1.2480 from above and if the pair bounces higher from there, it means that the level is now support, a thing that will increase the possibility of a break through 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by two important releases: the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product (expected value 0.7%) and the Current Account (expected value -16.3 Billion). The first indicator is the main gauge of economic performance and the second measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. Higher numbers for one or both indicators usually strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:05 pm
FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA HOLDS TODAY’S HEADLINES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Eurozone’s main gauge of inflation released Friday showed a disappointing change of 1.5% (expected 1.8%) and this allowed the US Dollar to drag the pair below support, for yet another bearish session.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0680 is now broken but both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly oversold and the pair travelled a long distance without pullback. This indicates that a move up will soon follow, possibly after 1.0630 is touched but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish and we expect another drop after the mentioned retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the United States will release the Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, focused on the economic health of said sector. Usually, a higher reading than forecast shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is low-to-medium; today’s forecast is 57.2 while the previous value was 57.7.


GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted Friday by a better than expected Current Account value and this was partly the reason why the pair moved higher throughout the session.



Technical Outlook

After failing to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair shot up and reached the resistance located at 1.2550, leaving us with a classic ‘bounce-or-break’ scenario. A break of this level would increase the chance of a move into 1.2615 (probably this target will not be reached in one day), while a bounce lower would mean that the pair is headed for the 50 EMA again. The PMI surveys released today for the Pound and US Dollar will play an important role for the outcome of the mentioned scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release for the Pound is the British Manufacturing PMI, which as mentioned above, is a survey of purchasing managers, focused on economic and business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 55.1, a small increase from the previous 54.6.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:04 pm
FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR: EMPLOYMENT DATA AND FOMC MEETING MINUTES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro-Dollar had another slow day, mostly because neither currency was affected by major news releases. Price drifted lower, approaching support but movement was choppy and without clear energy.



Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum has slowed down considerably and it appears like the support at 1.0630 will not be broken before a retracement to the upside occurs. The first resistance is located at 1.0680, followed by 1.0710 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of these levels will depend on the fundamental side which will steal the spotlight today and will heavily influence price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at United States jobs data with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the Government and the farming sector. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls that will be released later in the week, but a higher number of employed people will strengthen the US Dollar under normal circumstances; today’s forecast is 191K, a drop from the previous 298K.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the latest rate decision. Usually this release creates strong movement if it contains hints about future rate increases or other important monetary policy decisions.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken yesterday, partly due to thin Construction data. The first level of support was clearly broken but the bears ran out of steam at the next level and now bullish pressure starts to mount.



Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair quickly moved into 1.2420 where it bounced higher. Today we will likely see another encounter with 1.2480 but if the bulls fail to break this level, price will probably drop into 1.2385 and possibly 1.2350. The US Dollar will be affected by two important releases and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is the last survey of the week for the Pound, released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 53.5. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and can strengthen the Pound but the impact is often limited if the actual number comes close to analysts’ forecast.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AS SUPPORT HOLDS AND US DOLLAR WEAKENS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair remained below resistance ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the document didn’t show any clear signs of the Fed wanting to hike more often than already planned and this was mostly perceived as dovish by market participants so the pair showed again rejection at support.



Technical Outlook

It is clear now that 1.0630 support is holding and rejecting the pair higher, so we expect to see a move above 1.0680 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average before the mentioned support can be broken. If the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.0710 doesn’t hold, it would show that the pair is set to climb even further, possibly towards 1.0800 zone of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major releases, but the most notable one is the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which is a document that reveals details of the latest ECB Meeting and the reasons behind their latest rate decision. The release usually has a medium impact, which can become stronger if hints about a rate change are revealed; the scheduled time is 11:30 am GMT. 


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened due to better than expected Services PMI and The FOMC Meeting Minutes didn’t help the Dollar recover the losses, so the pair had a bullish day, bouncing at support and breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook


Considering that the sellers tried several times to break 1.2420 support zone but the pair bounced higher, we expect to see a move into 1.2550 in the near future. For now price is in a consolidation phase and neither side in in clear control from a longer term perspective but for the short term it looks like the bulls are winning the battle. As long as price remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, expecting an extended move north.

Fundamental Outlook

The main price driver today will be the technical aspect, mainly because the currencies in the pair will not be affected by important releases.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:36 am
FOREX NEWS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE CATALYST FOR STRONG BREAKOUTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair just completed another lacklustre day, without any major releases and with price trapped between support and resistance, bouncing almost perfectly between them.



Technical Outlook

Once the pair entered the channel between 1.0680 resistance and 10630 support, it marked the beginning of a ranging period that will be over only after a strong break of either one of the barriers. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still above price and angled downwards, so the overall bias is still bearish but considering the sideways movement seen over the last couple of days, our short term bias is neutral. It must be noted that after periods of inactivity and ranging movement, the pair tends to move strongly in one direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are today’s highlight and also an indicator that will probably take the pair out of the range seen this week. The report is released at 12:30 pm GMT and shows changes in the total number of employed people, apart from the farming industry; it is widely considered the most important U.S. jobs data and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it shows a reading above expectations. Today’s forecast is a change of 174K, lower than the previous 235K.


GBP/USD

Yesterday for the entire trading session the pair remained close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is now almost flat, indicating a lack of determination from either side.



Technical Outlook

On the chart above we can see the pair is trapped inside a triangle pattern, which will probably decide the next direction and until price moves out of it, we can expect so see more of the same choppy movement. The resistance zone located at 1.2480 – 1.2500 is also a strong barrier, while support is located at 1.2420 and for a true breakout we need to see these levels broken decisively. Important data comes out today so the pair is likely to show a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. A higher change than the forecast 0.3% indicates increased economic activity and usually strengthens the Pound. Of course, the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. employment data.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: WEAK NFP MOSTLY IGNORED, US DOLLAR ON THE ATTACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a disappointing number of only 98K new jobs and this initially weakened the US Dollar but very soon after, the pair reversed and started to move south. The Dollar was affected by a U.S. missile attack on Syria and this may be one of the reasons for the weird behaviour seen Friday.



Technical Outlook

After the initial spike up, the pair broke 1.0630 support, and exited the horizontal channel it was trapped in for the most part of last week. However, the USD had a surprising reaction to a worse than expected NFP and this makes the next move uncertain because we may see a delayed effect and thus a move up for the pair. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have entered oversold territory and this increases the chance of a move up, possibly into 1.0630.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:10 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the University of Michigan but the impact is hard to anticipate, mostly because of the late hour, when volatility is usually low. Nonetheless, the event should be treated with caution.


GBP/USD

The pair exited the triangle pattern even before the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls and continued lower after the report came out, so Friday’s entire trading session was bearish, a fact that could indicate that the pair will continue on a downward path.



Technical Outlook

Last week ended with the pair just below 1.2385 support after a break of the triangle pattern seen on the chart above. Today we expect to see a small pullback after reaching 1.2350 support, considering the oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic, but after this correction we believe that 1.2350 will be broken and the pair will continue lower. On the other hand, we may see a slow, ranging session considering the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so direction will be mostly affected by the technical side.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:53 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AHEAD OF BRITISH INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bulls after the pair formed a bottom at 1.0570. No major economic indicators were released and this partly contributed to the relatively low volatility.



Technical Outlook

We are currently seeing the beginning of a retracement started at 1.0570 and signalled earlier by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. This bullish correction may extend into the resistance at 1.0630 but it must be noted that the pair is in a medium term downtrend so we cannot exclude the possibility of a drop into 1.0525 even before price retraces higher. A confirmed break of 1.0570 will make 1.0525 the first target but our view for today is bullish, expecting the said correction.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s most notable release is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey widely respected because it is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, who are well informed about economic conditions due to the nature of their jobs. The time of the release is 9:00 am GMT, the forecast is 13.2 (previous 12.8) and usually a higher number shows optimism and triggers Euro strength.


GBP/USD

After dipping below 1.2385 for a short while, the pair started climbing and is now testing the previous support which may turn into resistance. Bullish pressure is starting to mount but for now this is just a retracement from a short term perspective.



Technical Outlook

The oscillators are moving higher after reaching oversold and the pair is testing 1.2420 resistance, approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current level is broken, we expect to see an encounter with the 50 EMA, where a bounce lower is very likely to occur. As long as price remains below the down trend line seen on the chart above, our view is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and can have a strong impact on the currency. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound but the reaction is mild if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast. Today’s forecast is a change of 2.2%, compared to the previous 2.3%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:40 pm
FOREX NEWS: MORE THAN A RETRACEMENT? US DOLLAR WAVERS AGAINST COUNTERPARTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey posted a reading of 19.5, much better than the anticipated 13.2, so yesterday’s session mostly belonged to the bulls but resistance wasn’t yet threatened.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is in a retracement that will probably extend into the resistance located at 1.0630 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The way price will react when (and if) it reaches that zone, will offer clues about the next move: if it will show difficulties breaking the zone, then the retracement up will probably end and we will see another test of 1.0570. On the other hand, an easy break will make 1.0680 the next destination. Our view is slightly bearish after a touch of the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro and US Dollar will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for direction.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual change 2.3%, expected 2.2%) and this was one of the reasons for the climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and for the break of the bearish trend line.



Technical Outlook

The break above the 50 EMA and above the bearish trend line shows that the current move is more than a simple retracement, so it’s very likely to see an extended climb, possibly into 1.2550. It must be noted that at the time of writing the resistance zone around 1.2480 is still holding so we may see a small bounce lower before the level is broken. Also, if the pair reaches 1.2550 it will probably retrace on the way there, meaning that is will not shoot up in a straight line.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Claimant Count, an indicator that shows changes in the total number of persons who asked for unemployment related social help. A higher number signals decreased economic activity and usually weakens the Pound but the impact is often mild. Today’s forecast is a change of -10.2K, while the previous was -11.3K.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY DIMS, PAIRS SHOW MIXED TRADING SIGNALS AHEAD OF U.S. PRODUCER PRICE DATA AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY


EUR/USD


Forex News: After bouncing perfectly at 1.0630 resistance, the pair remained in a relatively tight range and moved almost sideways for the remainder of yesterday’s trading session. The pair is still below the 50 EMA and the bias remains slightly bearish.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below 1.0630 resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we anticipate a drop through 1.0570 support and an encounter with 1.0525. Once and if the two resistance elements are broken, we expect to see a move into 1.0680. However, it must be noted that at the moment control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and the pair seems to be drifting without a strong bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be influenced today by two indicators with a potentially high impact: the Producer Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The first indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will eventually generate a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.0% (previous 0.3%).

The Consumer Sentiment survey comes out at 2:00 pm GMT and offers insights into the opinions of 500 consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. The expected value is 97.1 and numbers above it show optimism, usually creating USD strength.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count released yesterday showed that a higher number of individuals asked for unemployment related benefits but another report released at the same time showed that average earnings have increased. This was perceived as bullish for the Pound and outweighed the unemployment data.



Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.2480 and remained above it, so now we anticipate a move into 1.2550 in the near future. It is very possible to see a correction lower once the Relative Strength Index enters overbought territory, but this move will be probably rejected by 1.2480, which has already turned into support. If this support will be broken, we expect a move back to the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so the pair will be affected by the U.S. announcements and by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:53 pm
FOREX NEWS: EASTER APPROACHES, IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened as U.S. President Trump mentioned in an interview that the currency is too strong for his liking. This took the pair into the resistance at 1.0680, where it bounced lower and moved back under the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The pair’s next move is uncertain, considering that today most European banks will be closed in observance of Good Friday and this will affect volatility. Strictly from a technical point of view, we must recognize that the US Dollar erased most of the losses and moved below the 50 period EMA and below 1.0630 support, so now the next destination may very well be 1.0570. A quick move above 1.0630 and above the 50 EMA will turn the tide in favour of the bulls once again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT two important releases will affect the US Dollar: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales. The former indicator shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and acts as a key gauge of inflation, while the latter shows changes in the total value of sales made at retail levels. The CPI is expected to show a value of 0.0% and the Retail Sales a change of 0.1%; higher numbers for these indicators usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, strengthening in the first part of the session, then dropping back down through the recently broken level. Most of the climb was generated by U.S. President Trump’s comments about the strength of the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

The bullish move ran out of steam after a short-lived break of 1.2550 resistance zone and it’s very likely to see a move back into 1.2480 support. By the time price gets there, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will form a confluence zone together with the level we just mentioned; this zone will be tough to break and will probably reject price higher but Good Friday and the approaching of the Easter Holidays will probably generate irregular price action.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today in observance of Good Friday and volatility will be affected by this, so we recommend caution. The pair will also be affected by the U.S. releases mentioned earlier.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:23 pm
FOREX NEWS: EASTER MONDAY THROWS MARKETS INTO UNPREDICTABILITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair moved mostly sideways Friday and was affected by thin volatility generated by the approaching of the Easter Holiday. U.S. economic data was disappointing but this didn’t have a strong effect on the pair’s movement.



Technical Outlook

The last trading session doesn’t hold enough clues for an accurate prediction and on top of that, today most European banks will be closed, celebrating Easter. This means that price action will be substantially affected and technical analysis is inconclusive. From a longer term perspective, as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our view is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks across Europe will be closed today, celebrating Easter Monday. This will almost certainly affect the pair’s behaviour, generating irregular volatility and possibly erratic price action.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair showed bullish action but the resistance at 1.2550 wasn’t threatened and volatility remained relatively low, mostly due to Good Friday.



Technical Outlook

Price action will be unpredictable today and affected by the Easter Holiday. Volatility can quickly change from very low to very high and the pair is likely to move erratically. Once behaviour returns to normal, we expect a touch of 1.2550 if price remains above the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will also be closed in observance of the Easter Holiday and no major economic indicators will be released. Price movement will be affected so we recommend caution.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:04 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOUNCES BACK AFTER MONDAY’S BEAT DOWN


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action was bullish yesterday, with the pair moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above previous resistance. Some of this movement may be attributed to the Easter holidays and thin liquidity.



Technical Outlook

If the pair holds above 1.0630, we will probably see a test of 1.0680, and a consequent move into 1.0710. However, we don’t expect to see a break of the zone created by the two mentioned levels today, mostly because there are no major releases scheduled and the markets may still be affected by irregular volatility. For now the pair remains in a range and an overbought condition of one or both oscillators will probably trigger a move down.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, showing how many permits were issued for the construction of residential buildings during the previous month. The number is expressed in an annualized format and can strengthen the US Dollar if it comes out above the forecast, which for today is 1.25M; however, more often than not the impact of this indicator is medium, not high.


GBP/USD

The Pound won the battle against the US Dollar yesterday and the pair moved strongly above the resistance located at 1.2550. This sets the stage for a continued climb, into the next resistance zone.



Technical Outlook

The strong move above 1.2550 is likely to extend into the high at 1.2615 but it should be noted that the Relative Strength Index has reached its 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the pair. This increases the chance of a move lower to re-test the recently broken level (1.2550) before 1.2615 can be reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will be affected only by the U.S. indicator mentioned above, because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:14 pm
FOREX NEWS: POUND SLICES THROUGH RESISTANCE LIKE A HOT KNIFE THROUGH BUTTER


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with the Euro affected by French election polls. Resistance was broken and a retracement is due before further advances can be made.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0680 was broken during yesterday’s rally and now we expect to see a touch of 1.0710, followed by a bounce lower. The pair has travelled a relatively long distance to the upside, compared to the slow movement seen over the recent period, and the Relative Strength Index is touching its 70 level, giving an early signal of a move lower due to overbought condition. After said retracement, we expect to see a move into 1.0800 resistance in the near future, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the Final version of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.5%, same as previous. The CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation, with higher numbers strengthening the Euro but the Final version is usually the least important.


GBP/USD

British Prime Minister Theresa May made an unscheduled appearance yesterday, and called for an early General Election in June. This triggered a massive move of about 250 pips to the upside and took the pair through several resistances.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s huge rally brought the pair into 1.2770 key resistance, which is also the top of the channel that confined the pair for a long time (better seen on a Daily chart). The strength of this level, combined with the deep overbought condition shown by the Relative Strength Index, make us anticipate a bounce lower, but the Pound is on its way to break 1.2770 after this possible pullback. Any other surprise speeches from British politicians will likely trigger more volatility, so we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements but keep an eye out for possible election or Brexit talks.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, BULLS STILL IN CHARGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The European Final CPI came out with the expected value and did not have a major impact on the Euro. The pair climbed above 1.0710 and is now re-testing the level from above.



Technical Outlook

If 1.0710 level will turn into support, thus rejecting the pair higher, the chances of a move into 1.0775, followed by 1.0800 will increase. The Relative Strength Index is coming down after visiting the overbought zone, so the current bearish retracement may extend into 1.0680 where a bullish bounce will have a higher probability of happening. Our bias is bullish, expecting a break of yesterday’s high.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the general level of business conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with a medium impact. Usually, numbers above the forecast 25.6, strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Fuelled by the snap election call, the Pound’s gains extended way past 1.2770 resistance and into 1.2855 where it finally paused. Yesterday’s trading session slowed down but the climb will likely continue.



Technical Outlook

Price didn’t stop at 1.2770 and pierced through 1.2855, creating a high at 1.2905 before retracing below the previous level. It seems that 1.2855 is still resistance because we can clearly see several candles that touch the level but remain below it. So, we are dealing with strong resistance and an extremely overbought Relative Strength Index, facts that make us anticipate a move lower before bullish momentum will resume. 

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Carney will speak at 3:30 pm GMT at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit and an hour later he will participate in a panel discussion at an event organized by the Bank of France. Pound volatility may surge during these events, so we recommend caution.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:12 pm
FOREX NEWS: BRITISH RETAIL SALES: AN EXCLAMATION MARK ON A HUGE WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: After establishing 1.0710 as support, the pair continued higher yesterday, touching the resistance at 1.0775. U.S. Manufacturing data was worse than anticipated and this contributed to the climb.



Technical Outlook

As anticipated, the bulls remained in control and the pair re-tested the previously broken resistance (1.0710), bouncing higher and thus turning the level into support. The resistance at 1.0775 now stands in front of rising price and as seen from yesterday’s price action, the pair reacts to this level so we may get another retracement to the downside. As long as the pair keeps making higher lows and higher highs, our view is bullish but the Relative Strength Index is showing bearish divergence and this increases the chance of a move down.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Services and Manufacturing PMIs, which are both leading indicators of economic health and optimism, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors. The Services PMI is expected to show a value of 55.5 while the Manufacturing PMI has an anticipated value of 58.1; higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicators often have just a medium impact.


GBP/USD

Price bounced almost perfectly at 1.2770, establishing the level as support but the previous high was not broken yesterday; however, the bulls remain in clear control.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is capped by 1.2855 resistance and 1.2770 support and as long as these levels hold, we expect to see ranging movement. The bias remains clearly bullish and we anticipate a move above the previous high (1.2905) soon after the break of 1.2855. It is worth noting that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are coming down from overbought area, so a break of 1.2770 is not out of the question but the extent of the move should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales mate via retail outlets. Usually the indicator has a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The expected value is -0.3%, compared to the previous 1.4%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:30 am
FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE FRENCH ELECTION SHAKES THE MARKET


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair showed mixed movement, first descending into the support at 1.0680 and then bouncing above 1.0710; economic data came close to analysts’ expectations, so the impact was mostly overlooked.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average together with the level at 1.0680 created a very strong confluence zone of support, which acted as a springboard for price and immediately pushed it higher. Under normal circumstances, we would anticipate a continuation of the bullish advance, but given the important French Presidential Election that took place over the weekend, we maintain a neutral stance and recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be affected throughout the day by the French Presidential Election and this will probably be a reason for irregular price action, with alternating periods of high and low volatility.

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released, expected to show a reading of 112.4. This is a well-respected survey, with a large sample of about 7,000 businesses, that asks respondents to rate the current level of business conditions, as well as a 6-month outlook; under normal circumstances, a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the Euro.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped Friday, mostly due to a worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales (forecast -0.3%; actual -1.8%) but the support at 1.2770 couldn’t be broken and price returned above it after a temporary dip below.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2770 proved once again too strong and the pair bounced higher after a failed attempt to break it. This shows that the bears still cannot build enough pressure and the bulls remain in control but for the time being the pair is trapped between support (1.2770) and resistance (1.2855). A break of support will probably take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will make 1.2905 the first target but the pair’s movement will likely be affected by the French Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the markets will be affected by the French Presidential Election so we recommend caution throughout the day.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO GETS A BOOST FROM THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The week opened with a huge upside gap of almost 150 pips, generated by the French Presidential Election. The pair is now sitting above several levels, which were previously resistance.



Technical Outlook

The gap took price to a high of 1.0890 but afterwards the pair started to range and the bullish advance stopped. Usually, gaps are closed, meaning that price will eventually return to the point where the gap originated but the time it takes for price to move there is unknown. We could very well see a push into the high at 1.0905 but it’s more likely to get another ranging trading session; for now, caution is recommended, until the pair chooses a clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 123.7, which is a drop from the previous 125.6. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic and business conditions; this large sample is what makes it important, generating US Dollar strength if the actual reading surpasses analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair wasn’t much affected by the French Election and instead remained confined in a relatively tight range, with low volatility.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains confined inside the channel created by 1.2770 support and 1.2855 resistance, we consider it in a range and we have a neutral directional bias. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend and we expect a continuation but if 1.2770 support is broken, we will most likely see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by any major economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be determined by the technical aspect and by the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:59 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT, POUND STILL STUCK IN A RANGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro continued its advance to the upside yesterday and the pair managed to pierce through the high at 1.0905. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey showed a disappointing value of only 120.3 (forecast 123.7) and this weakened the US Dollar, facilitating the climb.



Technical Outlook

Now that the pair broke the previous significant high at 1.0905, we expect to see a touch of 1.0950 resistance, followed possibly by a move into the psychological resistance at 1.1000. It must be noted that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move down, below 1.0900. Also, the weekly gap is not closed and usually price returns to where the gap originated; however, the time frame for this to happen cannot be anticipated.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro and US Dollar both have a slow day ahead, in terms of economic news releases, so the main driver of price will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar remained in a relatively tight range, with low volatility for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Overall the session was bullish but price is still inside the horizontal channel.



Technical Outlook

The pair touched several times the support at 1.2770 and each time it bounced higher, so for today we expect to see a touch of 1.2850 – 1.2855 resistance zone, which is also the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. If that zone is broken, we will most likely see an extended move into 1.2905. Keep in mind that until one boundary of the channel is broken decisively, the pair is in range-mode, without a clear bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any economic news releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1034
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Apr 27, 2017 3:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON ECB FOR RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly bearish, with price dropping after a perfect bounce at 1.0950 resistance. The pair wasn’t affected by major economic releases and most of the move was technical.



Technical Outlook

Even if yesterday the sellers managed to take the pair below 1.0900, the bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, this bearish move may continue, considering that the Relative Strength Index was overbought for a long time and is now moving down with good momentum. It must be noted that today the technical aspect will be secondary as traders around the world will focus on Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers during the ECB Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

Today all eyes will be on the European Central Bank for the interest rate announcement, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but usually the event creates volatility nonetheless. Later, at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision; he will also answer journalists’ questions and usually this part creates strong movement on Euro pairs.

At the same time (12:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Numbers above forecast (1.5%), usually generate US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a tight range and showed choppy movement yesterday. It is currently in a consolidation phase, inside a horizontal channel.



Technical Outlook

The lack of economic releases for the Pound is part of the reason why the pair moved sideways the entire week so far and until the horizontal channel created by 1.2855 and 1.2770 is broken, we expect to see more of the same. Our bias remains bullish, expecting a move into the resistance at 1.2905 but a break to the downside would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases, so the pair’s direction will be affected by the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders.
View previous topicBack to topView next topic
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum