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GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: THREE KEY SPEECHES, THREE HUGE REASONS FOR VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a better than expected value, while the U.S. Durable Goods Orders disappointed, so the Euro won yesterday’s battle with the US Dollar and the pair finished higher.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair descended, touching 1.1170 to the pip and then bouncing higher. This established the level as support and makes the short term bias bullish, with 1.1240 as first target. If and when the pair touches the mentioned resistance, we expect to see a pullback, mainly because the Relative Strength Index will become overbought and the pair is not in a strong trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 8:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Portugal at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking. We don’t know how this speech will affect the currency but caution is recommended every time heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The forecast for this survey is 116.2 (previous 117.9) and a higher value shows increased consumer confidence and possibly higher consumer spending levels in the near future; this in turn strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not huge.

The final event of the day is a speech of Fed Chair Yellen, focused on global economy and delivered at the British Academy 'President's Lecture', in London. The scheduled time is 5:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action yesterday, first dropping below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then immediately jumping higher, close to the high of the day.



Technical Outlook

Even if the bears didn’t manage to break the 50 period EMA, the current move up lacks strength and seems exhausted. That’s the main reason why today we expect to see another attempt to break the Moving Average, and possibly a move into 1.2690. If price remains above the 50 EMA, the most likely target is 1.2770 but we don’t expect a break unless Carney’s press conference triggers Pound strength.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Report. These two events call for caution because they could easily trigger volatility and possibly erratic price action.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:09 pm
FOREX NEWS: IMF CUTS U.S. GROWTH FORECAST, US DOLLAR TAKES THE BLOW


EUR/USD


Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned during yesterday’s speech the he sees Eurozone growth and that all signs point towards a broadening recovery. On the other hand, the IMF has cut U.S. growth expectations and all this triggered Euro strength and US Dollar weakness, resulting in a huge move up.



Technical Outlook

The pair reached the 1.1300 mark but retraced lower and is trading below 1.1280 at the time of writing. We will most likely see another push higher, into 1.1300 and possibly 1.1340 but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index has moved into overbought territory and also that usually, fast moves tend to be followed by a pullback. However, we don’t expect this pullback to extend below support as the current outlook is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, alongside other heads of central banks. Yesterday his speech generated a lot of volatility, so caution is recommended today as well.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well, and the pair climbed for most of yesterday’s session, testing 1.2770 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average provided good support yesterday and the pair moved into the resistance at 1.2770 but this level is not yet clearly broken. When and if price will surpass this resistance, we expect to see a move into 1.2800 – 1.2820 but once it gets there, the chances of a retracement will increase. If the pair moves below 1.2770, we expect to see a move into the 50 EMA but our bias is mostly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will participate in the same panel discussion as ECB President Mario Draghi. Caution is recommended as the Pound may see some strong movement at the time of the discussions.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO AND POUND BREAK KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS FUELLED BY DRAGHI AND CARNEY HAWKISH COMMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair dipped yesterday, as it was expected after a big climb but the Euro bulls quickly stepped in and erased the drop. ECB President Draghi made hawkish comments at the ECB Forum and this aided the climb.



Technical Outlook

The pair reached multi-month highs, trading now above 1.1340 and heading towards 1.1400. The picture is very much bullish and we expect price to continue upwards until 1.1400 is reached but there we expect to see a pause or probably a move lower. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is facing a strong resistance zone between 1.1400 and 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy and usually has a high impact on the Euro; the forecast is a change of 0.0% from the previous -0.2% and higher numbers generate Euro strength under normal circumstances.

On the US Dollar side we have the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.2% change, same as previous. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance but the Final version is the last one released and tends to have a diminished impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a tremendous day yesterday after BOE Governor Mark Carney said in a panel discussion that some stimulus removal may be necessary. The pair posted a huge climb and broke several resistance levels.



Technical Outlook

After a small bounce lower at 1.2850 resistance, price climbed, fuelled by hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor. The current strength is likely to extend into 1.2975 – 1.3000 but a retracement should follow pretty soon considering that huge moves like the one seen yesterday are usually followed by a pullback. The bias is definitely bullish but be wary of retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Net Lending to Individuals comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of consumer credit. A higher value than the forecast 4.0 Billion is usually beneficial for the Sterling, but the impact is low to medium.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:46 pm
FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERBOUGHT LEVELS CALL FOR PULLBACKS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro and the US Dollar both benefited from better than expected data yesterday and this created a slower session, with price oscillating in a 50 pip range.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created a minor resistance at 1.1435 but also established 1.1400 as support. A break of either one of these levels will probably trigger additional movement in that direction but the pair is in a strong uptrend, so a break of support will not extend very low. To the upside the next resistance and target is located around 1.1450. Our overall bias remains bullish but the RSI is extremely overbought and this calls for a retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:00 am GMT we take a look at Eurozone inflation with the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate. The report uses data from 13 member states that report CPIs earlier and tends to have a significant impact on the Euro. The forecast is a change of 1.2% (previous 1.4%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the currency.

At 1:45 pm GMT the Chicago PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 200 purchasing managers from the Chicago area regarding overall business conditions. The impact is medium but numbers above the forecast 58.1 show optimism and usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to strengthen and the US Dollar to weaken so yesterday the pair continued on an upwards path, reaching the key resistance at 1.3000.



Technical Outlook

The current level is very important from a technical perspective (previous resistance) as well as psychological perspective (big, round number) and the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory. All these factors make us anticipate a retracement lower during today’s session but keep in mind that the pair still has bullish momentum so a break of resistance is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is today’s main highlight for the Pound. The indicator shows the difference in value between imports and exports and strengthens the currency if it posts a higher than expected reading. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and today’s forecast is -17.2 Billion, while the previous was -12.1 Billion.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jul 03, 2017 3:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: POUND GETS READY FOR ANOTHER VOLATILITY WAVE: BOE’S CARNEY TO SPEAK IN FRANKFURT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday price action slowed down and the pair retraced to test 1.1400, turning it into support. Overall the fundamental scene was calm, with positive data for both currencies but nothing to really shake the market.



Technical Outlook

After coming very close to the key resistance at 1.1450, the pair moved lower and found support at 1.1400. Price is likely to continue higher after the bounce at support but if the minor resistance around 1.1435 cannot be easily broken, we may experience a drop below 1.1400. Today we expect to see either a slow, ranging session or a bearish bias but overall the pair is clearly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 55.0. The survey acts as an indicator of optimism and usually a higher number is beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is not always notable.


GBP/USD

After a dip below support, the Pound rallied again and closed last week above the key psychological resistance at 1.3000, helped by US Dollar weakness seen across the board.



Technical Outlook

Friday the pair reversed an earlier drop and is now trading above the important level at 1.3000, a fact that opens the door for a move into the long term resistance at 1.3050. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are still overbought and this means that upside movement should be limited and possibly followed by a drop. It is very likely to see a ranging session because Mondays are often slow days but if BOE Governor Carney shows a hawkish stance, we may get another push higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound’s movement will be influenced by the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey can strengthen the currency if it posts a higher reading than today’s forecast of 56.4.

At 12:00 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak in Frankfurt at the Financial Stability Board. The impact of this speech depends on the matters discussed and Carney’s attitude but as always when heads of central banks speak, caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:02 pm
FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY INDEPENDENCE DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bulls couldn’t push price higher and instead the pair dropped through 1.1400, starting a much needed retracement. U.S. Manufacturing data was better than expected and strengthened the US Dollar, helping the drop.



Technical Outlook

The pair had reached deep overbought levels and traded there for quite a while so the current move down can be considered a necessary retracement. It is very likely to see an encounter with 1.1340 – 1.1350 or even with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the overall picture remains bullish. Price action will be most likely affected by Independence Day, so we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrates Independence Day, so banks will be closed and volatility will be affected most likely, especially during the NY session. On the Euro side, things are calm as well, without any major indicator releases.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a blow from weaker than expected numbers for the Manufacturing sector (forecast 56.4, actual 54.3) and this allowed the pair to dip back below the key psychological level at 1.3000.



Technical Outlook

The pair returned below 1.3000 after trading in overbought territory and is now headed towards 1.2900, with both oscillators showing good downwards momentum. The short term bias is bearish but overall the strength belongs to the bulls so we don’t expect to see a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Keep in mind that price can shoot up even before reaching 1.2900 or the 50 EMA and that today’s bias will be affected by Independence Day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in this sector. A higher number usually strengthens the Pound but the impact is higher if the actual reading is further away from analysts’ forecast, which for today is 55.2.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jul 05, 2017 5:09 pm
FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY, FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was very slow, partly because the United States celebrated Independence Day and this generated thin liquidity.



Technical Outlook

Although it was a slow session, the pair reached the support at 1.1340 and came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This means that today we are faced with a “bounce-or-break” scenario and its outcome will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will suggest a resumption of the bullish trend, while a break of this support zone will open the door for a move into 1.1280.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 6:00 pm GMT and will be the main event for the US Dollar. The document shows the details of the latest rate meeting and the reasons that generated the rate vote; usually the impact is very high if the Minutes contain hints about future monetary policy direction.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Cable showed slow and choppy movement yesterday. The British Construction PMI came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.



Technical Outlook

The short term bias remains bearish for the time being and we expect to see an encounter with 1.2900 support. By the time price gets there, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will form a confluence zone together with 1.2900. Confluence zones are tough to break but if price does move past them, this shows good momentum in the direction of the break, so maybe we will see an extended move into 1.2850. The overall bias is still bullish so we cannot rule out a quick move into 1.3000 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is the last in this week’s series and will be released at 8:30 am GMT, with an expected value of 53.6, similar to the previous 53.8. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Services sector that acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. Usually a higher number is beneficial for the Pound but if the actual reading matches the forecast, the impact is limited.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:24 pm
FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE FOMC MINUTES. MORE DOWNSIDE TO FOLLOW?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC Minutes release and the pair broke through support. The Minutes added greenback strength and the pair returned below 1.1340 after a brief climb.



Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing signs of indecision (candles with long wicks) and is trading very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so a clear bias is not in place. However, it seems the US Dollar is reacting positively to the FOMC Minutes and the pair is coming down after an extended period of being overbought, so we can expect a touch of 1.1280 as long as the bears can keep price below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and Government. The forecast is 184K, lower than the previous 253K and usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI released yesterday came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the impact was low and the pair had a slow trading session until the release of the FOMC Minutes. Some US Dollar strength was seen but the pair is still above support.



Technical Outlook

Several four hour candles have touched the support at 1.2900 and were rejected there, creating long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of bullish pressure, so if we don’t see a break of support soon, we expect the pair to climb towards 1.2975 – 1.3000. If the level at 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average are broken soon, we will probably see a touch of 1.2850. Our bias is mostly neutral until this bounce-or-break scenario unfolds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. jobs data.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jul 07, 2017 5:02 pm
FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A WILD DAY: U.S. NFP RELEASE AND TRUMP – PUTIN FIRST MEETING


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears ran out of steam before breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair made a run for 1.1400 resistance, generating a session controlled by the buyers. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed lower numbers than analysts had anticipated and this weakened the US Dollar, contributing to the pair’s climb.



Technical Outlook

After showing long candle wicks (sign of rejection) at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair climbed into the first resistance located at 1.1400. A big part in the climb was played by the lower than expected reading showed by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change but technical reasons contributed as well. Today’s direction will be mainly decided by the Non-Farm Payrolls report and until its release, we expect to see choppy price action, near 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. report of the week will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator is released monthly and shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important data for the U.S. jobs market, with a strong impact on the US Dollar; usually a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the currency. The forecast for today is 175K, higher than the previous 138K.

Today Presidents Trump and Putin will have their first official meeting at the G20 Summit and this definitely calls for caution because we don’t know how the market will react.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar weakened when the U.S. employment numbers were released but the Pound’s gains were quickly erased and the pair dropped back to the levels where the climb originated, generating a choppy session overall.



Technical Outlook

The pair is bouncing between the resistance at 1.2975 – 1.3000 and the support at 1.2900 but a break of either one will be decided by the fundamental side. The U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably high impact on the pair’s movement and also the Trump – Putin meeting may be a reason for strong movement. Until these events occur, movement will likely be choppy and unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the G20 Meetings today but the exact time is not known so we recommend caution throughout the day.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:20 pm
FOREX NEWS: SOLID U.S. EMPLOYMENT READINGS BOOST THE US DOLLAR. SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls showed a better than expected value Friday but the Average Hourly Earnings decreased, so the US Dollar had a mixed reaction, first weakening and then erasing all the losses. The pair finished last week close to support but without a clear bias.



Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price close to 1.1450, the pair moved below 1.1400 and then reversed again, finishing last week very close to this support/resistance level. This type of movement shows that the pair is in an indecision phase and that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. For today we favour a move below 1.1400, but not a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; we may also get a slow, ranging session sue to the lack of major releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the Sentix Investor Confidence, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey of about 2,800 analysts and investors that tries to rate their opinions regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone. The forecast is 28.1 and a higher number shows optimism, strengthening the Euro but the impact is often low.


GBP/USD

Friday a weak Pound couldn’t do much against the US Dollar that was boosted by the solid NFP reading, so the pair bounced at 1.2975 and broke below horizontal support and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the Pound is weak against the US Dollar and makes us anticipate a move into 1.2850. When or if the oscillators become oversold, we expect to see a climb that will find resistance around 1.2900 but overall we consider that today will be a slow and ranging session, mostly because no major indicators will be released.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS MOMENTUM, AMID A LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the bears took control of the pair and managed to take price below the support at 1.1400. However, price didn’t travel a long distance and the picture is still mixed.



Technical Outlook

The pair is under bearish pressure and we consider the short term bias bearish, anticipating a move at least into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this barrier is broken, then the next target will become 1.1340 but given the slow fundamental environment, it’s likely that this horizontal support will not be reached today. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1450 but a move into this area is less likely for today.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 5.89 million. The report shows how many new jobs are available during the reported month, excluding the farming sector; a higher number is beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is usually low.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar won the fight against the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped after a timid climb. The fundamental scene was lacklustre but Friday’s better than expected NFP probably extended its effects to yesterday’s trading session. 



Technical Outlook

After the dip below 1.2900 support, the pair climbed to re-test this level and bounced lower, thus confirming it as resistance. Price is also trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term bias is bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.2850 in the very near future. The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold and the Pound still has underlying strength, so we may very well see a bounce higher once the mentioned target is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar today, without any notable releases, so the deciding factor for direction will probably be the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:59 pm
FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP: FED CHAIR YELLEN TESTIFIES, US DOLLAR SET FOR STRONG MOVES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action remained slow during yesterday’s trading session, with just a small move above 1.1400. The lacklustre economic calendar contributed to the low volatility.



Technical Outlook

Even if volatility remained low for most of yesterday’s trading session, it is now becoming clearer that the US Dollar lacks the strength to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average or even 1.1400 decisively, at least for the time being. If the pair remains above 1.1400, we may see a touch of 1.1450 but the direction of the US Dollar may be heavily influenced by Janet Yellen’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the text of the testimony will be released 90 minutes prior but during the session, she will answer questions asked by the Committee members, and this is when volatility on US Dollar pairs will increase, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair dipped lower after an initial climb above resistance, and headed into the support at 1.2850. Volatility was high yesterday and we are now seeing increased momentum to the downside.



Technical Outlook

What looked like a clear break of the 50 period EMA and the resistance at 1.2900 turned to be a fake move, followed by a fast drop into the key support at 1.2850. If this level will be broken today, we will probably see a move into 1.2800 and possibly 1.2770 but a lot will depend on the British wages data and Yellen’s testimony. To the upside, the first barrier is represented by the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.2900 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid for labor by the Government and businesses. A higher hourly wage indicates that people may start to spend more in the near future, and this usually strengthens the Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 1.8%, lower than the previous 2.1%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:12 pm
FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BOOSTED BY HAWKISH YELLEN TESTIMONY. SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was bearish but the Dollar really took off during Fed Chair Yellen’s hawkish speech. The pair reached horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The sellers are facing an important barrier at 1.1400 and the 50 period EMA. As long as this zone is not clearly broken, we can still consider the current move a retracement in an uptrend but if the barrier will be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.1340. Given the US Dollar strength seen yesterday and the overextended condition of price on a Daily chart, we favour a drop through the current support.

Fundamental Outlook

First release of the day is the U.S. Producer Price Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price charged by producers for the goods they sell. A higher producer price leads to a higher consumer price, thus a higher inflation and this usually strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, same as previous and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT.

At 2:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify again on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. This testimony should be treated with caution because it can spark strong movement on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound was strengthened by better than expected employment data and the pair climbed above resistance, breaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony erased some of the US Dollar losses but the effect wasn’t substantial.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2815 has become support as seen from yesterday’s price action, but the buyers couldn’t break the confluence zone created by 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The last 4 hour candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, suggesting rejection, and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, into 1.2850. On the other hand, the RSI is bouncing from its oversold level and this increases the chance of a continued move higher. Overall the picture is mixed and the way price behaves around the current resistance will decide the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for the Pound, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and by the U.S. events mentioned above.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:29 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES – TWO POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The testimony of Fed Chair Yellen was shifter 30 minutes earlier yesterday but overall the event did not have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The pair dropped through the 50 period EMA but recovered soon after.



Technical Outlook

After the first drop into 1.1400, price climbed into 1.1450 and then bounced lower from there, threatening support again. This “yo-yo” behaviour is likely to end today and we will probably see a break outside the range seen over the last few days. It seems like bearish pressure is increasing but there’s a huge wick in the lower side of the last closed candle and this suggests strong rejection, so probably the day’s direction will be decided by the fundamental side.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus will remain today on the US Dollar for the release of two key indicators: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a main gauge of inflation and the Retail Sales, which represent the major part of overall consumer spending.

The CPI is expected to show a change of 0.1% (previous -0.1%) and the Retail Sales a change of 0.1% compared to the previous -0.3%. Both indicators come out at 12:30 pm GMT and higher than anticipated numbers for either of them are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged mostly to the bulls and price remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony brought the pair slightly lower but nothing substantial.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 EMA and the Relative Strength Index is not overbought, we expect the current move to extend into 1.2975 – 1.3000 area. If price gets there, by that time the RSI will probably become overbought and this will likely generate a bounce lower because price is not in a strong trend. If 1.2900 is broken to the downside, we will probably see a move closer to 1.2850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today direction will be mainly influenced by the United States economic indicators as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for the last day of the week.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:02 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD. WHAT’S NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Dollar took a blow Friday from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index (actual 0.0%, forecast 0.1%) and disappointing numbers for the Retail Sales (actual -0.2%, forecast 0.1%). These numbers were the main reason behind Friday’s climb and break of resistance.



Technical Outlook

After the failed break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair headed straight for the resistance at 1.1450 and surpassed it, on the back of weak U.S. economic data. For today we expect an encounter with last week’s high located at 1.1490, but a strong move above 1.1500 is less likely, mostly because the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and usually Mondays are slow days. As long as 1.1490 – 1.1500 remains resistance, we expect ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for both currencies from a fundamental standpoint, with the only notable release being the Eurozone Final CPI, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 1.3%, same as previous. The Final version is the least important, but higher numbers can bring Euro strength, taking the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls capitalized on the US Dollar weakness Friday and the pair climbed more than 150 pips, breaking several resistance levels. The outlook is now bullish but the pair has become overbought.



Technical Outlook

Price stopped at 1.3100 resistance but it’s not clear whether this happened because the markets closed for the weekend or because the move is exhausted. Either way, the Relative Strength Index has moved well past the overbought mark and although the bias is bullish, we expect to see some sort of bounce lower from the current resistance. The extent of the movement should be limited because strong moves are usually followed by a short period of ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical side will prevail.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:48 pm
FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS EXPECTED, AHEAD OF BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX


EUR/USD


Forex News: Eurozone’s Final CPI that came out yesterday, matched the market consensus and the pair remained mostly unfazed by the release. Overall the session was mixed and the pair remained in a tight range.



Technical Outlook

After a brief dip below 1.1450, the Euro rallied and nullified the early losses. Now the pair seems headed towards the resistance at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but once that zone is reached, we expect to see a bounce lower. If the zone is broken, the extent of the move above it should be limited, mostly because price is overextended and the bearish pressure has increased. To the downside, if 1.1450 is broken, we expect a touch of the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors regarding the health of the German economy, as well as a 6-month outlook. The anticipated number is 17.6 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro but the impact of this survey has started to decrease.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by important economic data yesterday and the pair retraced lower, mostly due to technical reasons that we mentioned in yesterday’s briefing.



Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure has increased and we expect to see a move lower, possibly into the zone around 1.3030. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are turning down, coming out of overbought territory, which is a fact that supports a move lower. However, the pair still has strong upside momentum so after this potential pullback, the chances of a break of 1.3100 resistance will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

A high-impact indicator will affect the Pound today: the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of England when they decide on where to set the interest rate. Higher inflation eventually triggers a rate hike and this strengthens the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.9%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:32 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL THE WEAKEST IN THE BUNCH, POUND TUMBLES AFTER DISAPPOINTING CPI


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite the overextended condition of price, the pair made another strong push yesterday, approaching 2016’s high at 1.1616. The German ZEW data came very close to forecast and the market remained mostly unaffected.



Technical Outlook

Most of yesterday’s climb was triggered by US Dollar weakness and the pair now seems headed for last year’s high at 1.1616. The Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on a four hour chart, so we expect to see retracements lower once the mentioned resistance is reached, or even before. To the downside the first potential support is located at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but if price climbs to 1.1616 it will not retrace so low probably.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Building Permits will be released at 12:30 pm GMT and will be today’s only notable data. The indicator shows how many permits were issued for the construction of new residential buildings during the previous month and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts a higher than expected value, which for today is 1.20 Million.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a big blow from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index, so the pair posted a huge drop after initially breaking 1.3100 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The pair was overextended even before the British CPI came out, so this is a classic case of fundamentals in agreement with the technical side, hence the strong drop. We expect the current move to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that the US Dollar is still weak and is taking a beating from most of its counterparts so we cannot rule out a climb above 1.3030 and closer to 1.3100. First important level south is 1.3000 and the way price behaves here will reveal more about the future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound lacks any important releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for price direction.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR INCREASED VOLATILITY: ECB INTEREST RATE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD


Forex News: After reaching a top at 1.1583, the pair started to retrace lower and most of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears. The U.S. Building Permits posted a better than anticipated number and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.



Technical Outlook

The current move down is considered a normal and much needed retracement in an uptrend and once it finds support, we expect to see a bounce higher and a possible trend continuation into last year’s high at 1.1616. Potential support is located around 1.1490 – 1.1500, while the first resistance sits at 1.1580, followed by 1.1616, but keep in mind that today the technical side will be overshadowed by the ECB press conference.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s central focus will be the ECB rate decision, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the press conference is usually the time when the Euro starts to behave erratically, depending on Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions. If he will hint towards some form of QE tapering, we expect to see increased Euro volatility.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy yesterday and the bears couldn’t continue the momentum started a day before by the weak British CPI. The pair is now trading above and below 1.3030, without clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to range between 1.3030 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average until the release of the British Retail Sales. The reading for this indicator will probably decide today’s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary. A bullish breakout will make 1.3100 the first target, and a move south will have the 50 EMA as first target, followed by the support at 1.2975.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous -1.2%. This is a very important indicator because sales made at retail levels account for the majority of consumer spending, so we expect to see Pound strength if the actual number surpasses analysts’ expectations and Pound weakness if it comes out below forecast.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:42 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO POSTS MASSIVE GAINS, MOVES PAST 2016 HIGH, BACKED BY DRAGHI’S COMMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: As the market expected, the ECB maintained its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that a hike in autumn is possible. The Euro responded positively to the comments and the pair rebounded from session lows, breaking resistance.



Technical Outlook

After completing a retracement that almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair pushed higher, breaking last year’s high at 1.1616 fuelled by Draghi’s comments. The uptrend is now resumed and the pair is headed for the next resistance located around 1.1700 but it won’t move there in a straight line and pullbacks will most likely occur. For today we expect small bounces to the downside or a ranging session with a bullish bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar, without any major news releases, so the deciding factor will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, first breaking below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then returning to the line. The British Retail Sales came out slightly above expectations but this only created a brief period of volatility.



Technical Outlook

If the pair will break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, the outlook will become bullish once again and we will probably see a break of 1.3030, followed by a move into 1.3100 next week. On the other hand, a bounce lower from the 50 EMA will confirm the initial break and will make 1.2900 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for the final trading day of the week, so the technical side will prevail.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:12 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO HOLDS ABOVE 2016 HIGHS AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the fundamental scene was calm, without any important economic releases and this translated into a choppy session, mostly controlled by the bulls.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the pair is running out of steam and that it’s preparing for a retracement but we don’t expect to see very strong movement today. It is highly likely for the pair to re-test the recently broken resistance at 1.1616 but it will probably remain in a relatively tight range unless the fundamental side offers some surprises. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1713, which is a level last reached in August 2015 but we don’t expect a break today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes will be released today at 8:00 am GMT. These are surveys that act as leading indicators of economic health, focused on their respective sectors, so higher than anticipated numbers suggest optimism and usually strengthen the Euro. The forecast is 57.3 for the Manufacturing PMI and 55.5 for the Services PMI.

The US Dollar will be affected today by the Existing Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold, excluding new construction but the impact is usually low-to-medium; however, numbers above the forecast of 5.59 Million can strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Cable remained in a range Friday, moving above and below the 50 EMA for almost the entire session. All directional moves to one side were quickly reversed and the pair lacked determination.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints for future direction. Currently the pair is in a consolidation phase below 1.3000 and we can see several candles that tried to close above this resistance but failed and resulted in long upper wicks. This is a sign of rejection, so we can expect to see downside movement if price doesn’t move away from the 50 EMA and above 1.3000 key level.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic scene is calm today, without any notable releases. The technical aspect will be the main deciding factor for direction.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:48 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS TIMID SIGNS OF RECOVERY. U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears for the most part and the pair retraced lower but without threatening the support at 1.1616. European data missed the market consensus and this contributed to the currency’s weakness.



Technical Outlook

The move down seen yesterday is very normal after a strong move up like the one seen last week and we expect current downside momentum to extend into 1.1616. That’s a place where bullish movement could resume and if this is the case, we expect to see a push into the recently formed resistance around 1.1680 – 1.1685. If this resistance is broken, we expect to see a stronger move down when the pair reaches 1.1713, which is a level last visited in August 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding business conditions, job availability and economic conditions overall, and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a reading of 116.2, lower than the previous 118.9.


GBP/USD

The pair maintained a bullish bias throughout yesterday’s trading session and moved above the key psychological level at 1.3000 but was capped by 1.3030 resistance.



Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the important level at 1.3000, without being overbought. All clues point towards an extended move to the north but currently there are signs of rejection around the resistance at 1.3030, so we may see a revisit of 1.3000. Our bias is mostly bearish if resistance cannot be broken with determination. 

Fundamental Outlook

Today we don’t have anything major in terms of British economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S. survey mentioned earlier.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jul 26, 2017 5:23 pm
FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY WARNING: FED RATE STATEMENT, BRITISH PRELIMINARY GDP


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar failed to stage a comeback and yesterday’s trading session was controlled mostly by the Euro bulls. In the afternoon we saw rejection around 1.1713, partly due to better than expected numbers for the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.



Technical Outlook

After coming within 1 pip of August 2015’s high at 1.1713, the pair started to show rejection and retraced close to the previous high at 1.1685. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought and is showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs and the oscillator is making lower highs); on top of that, the last candle shows a long wick, so all these signs point towards a move south. However, it must be noted that an uptrend is still in place and a break of 1.1713 cannot be overruled.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected; currently <1.25%) today at 6:00 pm GMT and will release the Rate Statement, which contains the reasons that determined the rate decision. Usually the rate is priced into the market so it tends to have a muted impact, but the Statement can create strong movement if it contains any hints about future monetary policy.


GBP/USD

The Pound remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and pushed above resistance mostly due to US Dollar weakness early during yesterday. A small recovery was seen later in the afternoon, on the back of positive U.S. data. 



Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the 50 EMA and above 1.3030, which was previously resistance, so the outlook is bullish but as long as price stays between 1.3000 and 1.3100, it can be considered in a range and without clear movement. Today’s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental side, as both currencies in the pair will be affected by key releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT we have a very important UK indicator: the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance and the Preliminary is the first in the series of three versions, thus it tends to be the most important. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3%, while the previous was 0.2%; higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:13 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES ANOTHER BLOW FROM THE FOMC RATE STATEMENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Fed kept the rate unchanged at <1.25%, as expected but the Rate Statement was interpreted as dovish and the US Dollar weakened at the time of the release as a result.



Technical Outlook

The pair pushed above 1.1685 and approached 1.1713 resistance once again, on the back of a FOMC Rate Statement that was interpreted as dovish by the majority of market participants. However, the US Dollar sell-off is not entirely justified and we may very well see a quick bounce lower, into 1.1616 - 1.1600 area, especially if the pair moves quickly below 1.1685. If 1.1713 is broken to the upside, the pair is in “uncharted territory” because the next notable level is located somewhere around 1.2000 – 1.2050, which is a level last reached in 2012.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years. A higher change than the forecast 3.5% shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the US Dollar but if the number comes close to market consensus, the impact is lower.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product matched the forecast and the Pound didn’t have a strong reaction to the news but US Dollar weakness took the pair closer to the 1.3100 mark later in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The pair is clearly headed towards 1.3100 - 1.3125 resistance and once it gets there, we expect to see some sort of rejection or at least a re-test of the zone from above. As we mentioned a day before, until the resistance at 1.3100 or the support at 1.3000 is broken decisively, we consider the pair in a range, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators scheduled on the Pound’s economic calendar, so the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders will decide the pair’s direction.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:27 pm
FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Durable Goods Orders posted a much better than anticipated reading yesterday and this was part of the reason why the US Dollar strengthened and took the pair into support. Also, the Euro was overbought and this contributed to the pullback.



Technical Outlook

The pair was overbought for a long time so a retracement was needed but the uptrend remains strong so overall our bias is bullish, anticipating another climb. A good place for the upside movement to resume is the current level at 1.1685 but if this barrier is broken, we expect to see a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The fundamental side will also play an important role today.

Fundamental Outlook

There are two important releases today: the first is the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.2%, same as previous. The second indicator is the U.S. Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected change is 2.5%, which is a big increase from the previous 1.4%. This version is the most important out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), so its impact tends to be the highest.


GBP/USD

The bulls made another push yesterday but upside momentum finally faded and the US Dollar got a boost from positive economic data, thus the pair dropped later in the day. 



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action established 1.3160 as resistance, so this level will act as a target if bullish action resumes. The bearish break of 1.3100 shows that the balance is tilting towards the US Dollar, at least in the short term. Depending on the U.S. GDP reading, we expect to see a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, but a quick return above 1.3100 will make 1.3160 the first destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound has a light day ahead, without anything notable on the economic calendar, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Gross Domestic Product.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:24 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO ON THE RISE AHEAD OF INFLATION DATA, US DOLLAR LOOKING TO CHICAGO PMI FOR A BOOST


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite a better than anticipated U.S. Gross Domestic Product, the US Dollar weakened Friday and the pair closed the week above 1.1700. The climb was helped by the lower than expected change in the price of all goods and services included in the GDP, which came below market expectations (GDP Price Index forecast 1.3%, actual 1.0%).



Technical Outlook

The greenback continues to weaken against most of its counterparts and it seems like market participants are looking for the slightest reason to sell it (even a better than expected GDP doesn’t help). For today we expect to see a touch of 1.1775 (last week’s high) but a break or bounce will probably depend on the Euro and US Dollar data released throughout the day. It’s also possible to see a ranging session, especially if the economic data matches expectations. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the European Flash Estimate CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation but because other Eurozone member states have already released inflation data, the impact of this indicator is usually medium, not high. The forecast for today is a change of 1.3%, same as previous.

On the US Dollar side we have the Chicago PMI, which is a survey of purchasing managers from the Chicago area that acts as a leading indicator of economic optimism. The expected reading is 60.8 and usually higher numbers strengthen the greenback but the impact is medium-to-low.


GBP/USD

The latest drop was almost completely erased Friday and the bulls closed the week above the key level at 1.3100. Later in the day we saw a move lower but this could be attributed to end-of-week profit taking. 



Technical Outlook

The pair is headed for the resistance at 1.3160 and a break would suggest trend resumption, with higher prices to follow. However, if this barrier cannot be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.3100 and possibly the start of a ranging period. Mondays are usually slow days and the oscillators are lacking momentum, thus adding to the possibility of a trading session confined in a relatively tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic day ahead, so the U.S. events and the technical aspect will be the main drivers for today’s price action.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: UPTRENDS STILL IN PLACE BUT OVERBOUGHT LEVELS CALL FOR PULLBACKS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was slow and ranging, as it was somewhat anticipated; the European Consumer Price Index matched analysts’ predictions, so the impact was muted and volatility remained low at the time of release.



Technical Outlook

The pair came in close vicinity of 1.1713 and found new buyers there, so yesterday’s strongest move was bullish. In the first part of today’s session we expect to see an encounter with the resistance 1.1775 but if this level cannot be broken decisively, the sellers will probably take over and take the pair into 1.1713 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average over the next days. Keep in mind that the pair is overbought on a Daily and even a Weekly chart and this suggests that a stronger pullback will soon follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a non-eventful day ahead and on the US Dollar side, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be the main event. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their opinions regarding business conditions and overall economic situation in the said sector. The time of release is 2:00 pm GMT, the forecast is 56.4 and a higher than anticipated number shows optimism, usually strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair didn’t reach 1.3160 resistance yesterday and instead returned lower to test support where it bounced slightly higher. Overall the session was slow and without a clear bias.



Technical Outlook

We will probably see more of this ranging movement until 1.3100 or 1.3160 is broken decisively. For the moment we expect to see an encounter with 1.3160, considering the nice bounce at 1.3100 support, which indicates bullish pressure. If that level is broken, the next barrier is located at 1.3200 (psychological resistance), followed by 1.3250 (technical resistance).

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will also be affected by manufacturing data today, in the form of the British Manufacturing PMI. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this one can strengthen the currency if the actual number comes above forecast, which for today is 54.4.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:09 pm
FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE – A FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION


EUR/USD


Forex News: US Dollar weakness continued and the pair broke decisively above 1.1775, reaching highs last seen in 2015. The US Manufacturing PMI came very close to expectations, thus the impact was low.



Technical Outlook

The recent push above 1.1775 opens the door for a move into 1.1875, which is a level that last acted as support in 2010, when it rejected a strong drop. However, the level was reached more recently, in 2015 but the pair just moved through it without any type of bounce. If this level is reached today, we expect to see rejection there, mostly because the pair is overextended and the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought by then. Retracements are very possible even before the pair reaches 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the Government and the farming industry. The forecast is 187K and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Government issued NFP which comes out Friday.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing PMI fuelled the Pound and took the pair close to the resistance around 1.3250, giving us another session controlled by the bulls.



Technical Outlook

Although the pair is in an uptrend, the resistance at 1.3250 is likely to trigger a pullback lower. The relative Strength Index has been long overbought and is constantly showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs while the oscillator is making lower highs or double tops). If the pair retraces lower, it may find support around 1.3160 but a lot of today’s movement will depend on the economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business and economic conditions in the Construction sector. This is a leading indicator of economic health, but its impact is high only if the actual number differs strongly from expectations. Today’s forecast is 54.2 and a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be directly affected by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:24 pm
FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE POUND: BOE INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE AND GOVERNOR CARNEY’S PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair climbed after the worse than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and spiked very close to 1.1875. However, most of the Dollar losses were erased soon after and now it seems like bullish pressure is fading.



Technical Outlook

Over the last couple of days, price action slowed down considerably and long wicks started to appear. This is a sign that the uptrend is wavering and that the pair is likely to move lower for the end of the week. The main levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1775 as support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Given the latest price action, we expect to see a touch of support but keep in mind that the main trend is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a light day ahead and for the US Dollar the only notable release is the Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called the Services PMI), scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The expected number is 56.9 and usually higher numbers strengthen the USD but the impact is medium, not high.


GBP/USD

The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, first climbing very close to resistance and then erasing most of the losses. Overall yesterday’s session was choppy and without clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The Pound bulls have tried twice to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3250 but the result wasn’t positive. Now the candles have long wicks, showing rejection and the Relative Strength Index is bouncing at its 70 level, suggesting an overbought condition. Today’s direction will depend mostly on the fundamental side but strictly from a technical standpoint, we expect bearish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report, will announce the Interest Rate (no change expected) and will release the Monetary Policy Summary. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report. This cluster of events will most likely trigger increased volatility, so caution is recommended until things calm down and a clear direction emerges.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: BIG MOVEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TAKE CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather choppy and price retraced after a spike above 1.1875 resistance. The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing figure and this further weakened the US Dollar, bringing the pair close to resistance.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing 1.1875 resistance for the second time is a short while, with the Relative Strength Index showing an overbought condition. A deeper pullback is long overdue and the uptrend is overextended so we may see a move into 1.1775 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if 1.1885 barrier is not broken decisively. However, the main catalyst for today’s price action will be the U.S. jobs data and before the release we may experience choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the US Dollar today for the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls). This report is widely regarded as the most important jobs data for the United States and its release triggers strong movement almost all the time. More employed people means that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 181K (previous 222K).


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected but lowered inflation expectations and Governor Mark Carney was dovish during the press conference that followed. These were the main reasons why the pair posted a strongly bearish session yesterday.



Technical Outlook

The pair dropped into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the current candle shows a long wick in its lower part, suggesting rejection. If price remains below the 50 EMA and below 1.3160, we can expect a touch of 1.3100, but the technical aspect will be secondary to the U.S. employment data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on the Pound’s calendar for today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and to a lesser extent, by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARISH MOMENTUM ON THE RISE, US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY THE NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s highlight was without a doubt the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which posted a number of 209K new jobs, better than the anticipated 182K. This gave a breath of fresh air to the US Dollar and created a strongly bearish session.



Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.1875 several times, the pair dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the back of positive U.S. employment data. This is a much needed pullback as the Relative Strength Index was overbought on a Daily chart and is still overbought on a Weekly chart, so we expect the current downside momentum to extend throughout today’s session and the pair to remain below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Sentix Investor Confidence is today’s only notable release, albeit it’s a low impact indicator. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors, which tries to gauge the respondents’ opinion regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone economy. Usually, a higher than anticipated number suggests optimism and strengthens the Euro, but as mentioned before, the impact is limited. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected number is 27.8.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued the momentum started a day before and dropped about 130 pips on the back of US Dollar strength generated by the positive NFP reading.



Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is definitely bearish but price has reached support at 1.3030 and the Relative Strength Index has descended into its 30 level, which suggests that the pair is becoming oversold. A more important level is located at 1.3000, where we expect to see some sort of bounce higher; a break of this level will open the door for 1.2930 but we don’t expect that mark to be reached today. To the upside, the first barrier is located at 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AS THE US DOLLAR GAINS SOME TRACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday price action slowed down but overall the pair had a slightly bullish bias, climbing above 1.1775 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without a major impact on direction.



Technical Outlook

Today we expect to see a continuation of the bearish momentum started Friday by the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report and we consider yesterday’s price action just a normal retracement after a strong move. If the pair descends below 1.1775, the first target will become 1.1713 – 1.1700 but it must be noted that an uptrend is still in place, so if 1.1775 rejects price, we may see a move closer to 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is light in terms of economic releases, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. As the name suggests, this report shows the number of open jobs, excluding the farming sector but its impact is usually low-to-medium; however, a higher number shows increased economic activity and strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is 5.66 Million, very similar to the previous 5.67 Million.


GBP/USD

After a small bounce, the pair moved lower and approached the psychological level at 1.3000. The trading session was slower but it looks like the US Dollar is winning the short term battle.



Technical Outlook

For today we expect to see a touch of the key support located at 1.3000 but after that, the chances of a move up will increase because the Relative Strength Index is approaching its 30 level for the second time in a very short while. A break of 1.3000 would mean a great victory for the bears but even if it happens today, the extent of the move down should be limited and followed by a retracement that will clear the oversold condition of the RSI.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have any important economic indicators on the Pound’s calendar, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. data.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: PAIRS ROLLING DOWNHILL, US DOLLAR BACK IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action was very slow until the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings that posted a number of 6.16 Million, better than the anticipated 5.74 Million. This brought a wave of positive momentum to the US Dollar and the pair descended below support.



Technical Outlook

The pair has breached the support at 1.1775 on the back of positive U.S. economic data and it appears like the US Dollar is gaining momentum. If the bears can keep price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775, we expect to see a move into 1.1713 and possibly 1.1700. Our bias is bearish but we acknowledge the fact that an uptrend is still in place and this means that a bounce at the next support is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

We have yet another slow economic day ahead, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized change in the price paid by businesses for labor, excluding the farming sector. It has inflationary implications and usually a higher than expected value can strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited, especially if the actual number comes close or matches analysts’ forecast, which for today is a change of 1.1%.


GBP/USD

Bearish momentum continued throughout yesterday’s trading session, mostly fuelled by better than expected U.S. economic data. The key psychological level at 1.3000 was broken decisively and this is likely to trigger additional downside movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair is under heavy selling pressure and the break of the support at 1.3000 suggests that we will soon see a touch of 1.2930. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is entering oversold for the third time in a short period and this is an early warning that a bounce higher will soon follow. A good place for this bounce is 1.2930 but if price turns up before that, we expect 1.3000 to provide resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Labor Costs mentioned earlier.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: POLITICAL TENSIONS ON THE RISE. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, fist descending below the 1.1700 mark and then climbing above the level. Political tensions between the United States and North Korea contributed to the choppy movement.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.1775, our short-to-medium term bias is bearish, anticipating another move below 1.1713 – 1.1700. Over the last months the US Dollar lost the battle with the Euro, so it’s clear that underlying bullish pressure still exists and now the latest candles show rejection, thus increasing the chances of a move up. We recommend caution because the US Dollar may be affected by surprise comments coming from American and/or North Korean politicians.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the United States Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods. It is considered a high-impact indicator, with inflationary implications because eventually a higher producer price translates into a higher consumer price. The expected change is 0.1% and usually a higher than anticipated value strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gave back some of the gains yesterday, mostly due to disappointing economic data, but the pair found resistance at 1.3000 and bounced lower later in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index was an early warning that a retracement will follow and this happened yesterday. The move up found good resistance at 1.3000 where it bounced lower, so we can expect this level to play an important role for future price action. Today’s direction will be mostly decided by the fundamental side but our bias is bearish as long as price stays below 1.3000. Keep in mind that the US Dollar may be affected by the political environment and by tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound had a slow economic week so far and we can say that today is the busiest day of the week, with the British Manufacturing Production released at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator measures the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and usually has a high impact on the currency, with better than expected numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, while the previous was -0.2%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:22 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s session was characterized by bounces at support and resistance, without a clear bias. The U.S. Producer Price Index missed expectations and this weakened the US Dollar in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the zone between 1.1700 and 1.1713 acts as good support because lately we’ve seen two failed attempts to move bellow it. Also, the pair found solid resistance at 1.1775 and the Moving Average, so the bias is neutral until a clear break of either support or resistance. The U.S. inflation data will play an important role for today’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

A very important economic indicator is released today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation and measures changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

Today’s forecast is a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.0% and usually a higher change strengthens the US Dollar. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the CPI (excludes food and energy from calculation), released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2% from the previous 0.1%.


GBP/USD

An initial drop was reversed yesterday by the worse than anticipated American PPI and afterwards, volatility dimmed and price remained close to 1.3000. Neither side was in clear control but now it seems like the pair has found good support at 1.2950.



Technical Outlook

During the last few days the pair has bounced twice at 1.2950 and the Relative Strength Index is hovering near the oversold level. These are signs that the bearish momentum is fading and that the buyers are likely to step in sooner rather than later. If 1.3000 can be clearly broken, we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a lot will depend on the value posted by the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre fundamental environment today, without major economic releases, thus the U.S. CPI and the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.
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