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GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRUGGLES, LOOKS FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST FROM FOMC MEETING MINUTES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Political turmoil in Germany, combined with modest US Dollar strength took the pair below support yesterday. However, price remained in a tight range for almost the entire session.



Technical Outlook

The pair’s gains seen Monday were totally erased and now the bears are trying to push price below the confluence zone created by 1.1735 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If they succeed, the first target will become the support at 1.1700, followed by the zone around 1.1670; the oscillators are showing bearish momentum, favouring a move into the next support but a lot will depend on the US data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The first U.S. data release will be the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years and is expected to post a reading of 0.4% (previous 2.0%). Higher than anticipated numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting. The document contains insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision but can also contain hints about future rate hikes and other monetary policy matters. If this is the case, the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair retreated yesterday without threatening 1.3280 resistance but found support around 1.3225 zone and bounced higher. Both currencies in the pair lack a clear direction, so we can expect to see more choppiness.



Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by the resistance at 1.3280 and the support at 1.3225, so until we see a clear breakout, we can expect reversals within the range. A break of support will take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will open the door for a move into the key level at 1.3320. Both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected today by important events, so there’s an increased chance of a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT, HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, which contains an economic outlook and offers information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year. The Statement is released once per year and can have a significant impact on the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:51 am
FOREX NEWS: LONG-TERM RESISTANCE THREATENED. US DOLLAR STRUGGLES TO RECOVER WEEKLY LOSSES


EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Manufacturing and Services surveys released yesterday showed optimism among purchasing managers and this contributed to the pair’s climb into the key resistance at 1.1860, generating another bullish session.



Technical Outlook

The bulls are now facing an important resistance zone represented by 1.1860 and 1.1875. Also, the pair has travelled a long distance to the upside without a proper retracement and the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory. These reasons make us anticipate a drop that will possibly find support at 1.1825. If the pair moves above 1.1875 without retracing first, expect the upside to be limited and a pullback to follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate will be the day’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that asks respondents to give their 6-month outlook for the economy and to rate current business conditions. The expected reading is 116.6, almost unchanged from the previous 116.7 and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro but to a limited extent.

 

GBP/USD

The pair dropped close to 1.3280 support yesterday after the British GDP failed to surpass expectations. However the losses were quickly erased, mostly due to US Dollar weakness across the board.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3320 represents the top of the long term range and is a key level for long term movement, a fact which makes us believe that price will struggle to break it and that we will see a retracement lower from here. The first potential support is located at 1.3280, where we expect bullish action to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene is light today for the Pound, without any important data releases. The technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction unless surprising events take place.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:45 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS DOMINATE THE MARKET BUT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ENTER DEEP OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. PULLBACKS FORTHCOMING?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the German IFO Business Climate posted an all-time high figure of 117.5, thus allowing the Euro to make significant advances against an already weak US Dollar and to finish the day almost 100 pips higher.



Technical Outlook

Momentum is clearly bullish and the pair broke a very important zone of resistance (1.1860 – 1.1875) but these types of moves are usually followed by a pullback or at least a period of sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are deep in overbought territory, thus increasing the chances of a retracement lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. New Home Sales, a report that shows how many houses were sold during the previous month. The expected number is 627K (annualized format) and a higher reading shows increased economic health, thus strengthening the greenback but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

Price action was mostly bullish Friday and the pair broke the resistance at 1.3320, reaching a high at 1.3360 before retracing lower. The US Dollar continues to be on the retreat, with only minor signs of strength. 



Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce at 1.3280, which is now support, the pair exited the long term range by breaking the resistance at 1.3320. Price action during the next few days will show whether the break was true or not and until then, the levels to watch are 1.3360 (Friday’s high) as potential resistance and of course 1.3320, which may turn into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the U.S. home sales numbers will decide market direction.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES CENTER STAGE AS FED CHAIRMAN DESIGNATE POWELL TESTIFIES IN WASHINGTON DC


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair made new advances during the early stages of yesterday’s trading session and pierced through last week’s high at 1.1944. However, the US Dollar showed signs of recovery in the afternoon and price returned below resistance.



Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.1944 and returning below it, the pair is now showing two candles with a very long wick in their upper part. This rejection combined with the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, increases the chances of a move lower that may find support around 1.1900 - 1.1875. However, the pair’s movement will likely be influenced by the testimony of Fed Chair Designate Powell, so the technical aspect may be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. He is designated to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve starting in February 2018, so his speech will probably have a strong impact on the US Dollar, thus caution should be used.

At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about current and future economic conditions. The expected reading is 123.9 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback because rising consumer confidence is indicative of future increase in consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound won the early battle against the US Dollar but the gains were erased in the second part of yesterday’s trading session, partly due to better than expected U.S. house sales.



Technical Outlook

The last candle shows a huge upper wick, which is a clear and strong sign of rejection and this is the main reason why we expect to see today a drop into 1.3320. If that support is broken, the medium term uptrend will be weakened and we will probably see more choppy movement. Both currencies are affected today by major events and those will play a major role for direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will reveal the Bank Stress Test Results and the Financial Stability Report. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference about the two releases that were just mentioned and this cluster of events is likely to generate strong volatility on all Pound pairs, so caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:43 pm
FOREX NEWS: POWELL’S TESTIMONY BOOSTS THE US DOLLAR. GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The text of Fed Chair Designate Powell’s testimony was released 17 hours earlier than initially scheduled. However, during his hearing before the Senate Committee he showed a hawkish stance, giving a boost to the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

The anticipated pullback happened yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the support at 1.1875 but price action is still choppy, with long candle wicks and small bodies. However, the market seems to be receiving well the nomination of Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair, so we expect to see increased demand for the US Dollar and a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a look at German inflation with the release of their Preliminary Consumer Price Index. The anticipated change is 0.3% and under normal conditions, higher numbers strengthen the shared currency.

For the US Dollar the most important release will be the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to increase to 3.3% compared to the previous 3.0%. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance, so a higher reading strengthens the greenback. The data comes out at 1:30 pm GMT.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress about the U.S. economic outlook. The event should be treated with caution.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped at the time of Powell’s testimony but the impact was much bigger than the one seen on EUR/USD, mostly because the Pound was weaker at the time. Also the US Consumer Sentiment survey posted a much better than anticipated figure aiding the drop.



Technical Outlook

Price dropped through several support levels, including the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now trading very close to 1.3225 support. The long distance travelled yesterday calls for a retracement to the upside and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, thus supporting this view; however, we don’t expect the pair to climb above the 50 EMA. A break of 1.3225 will open the door for a move into 1.3175. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT, BOE Governor Carney will speak at the Fixed Income Currencies and Commodities Markets Standards Board about the Fair and Effective Markets Review. This is not a major testimony or press conference so the impact may not be huge but caution is recommended nonetheless.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:51 am
FOREX NEWS: POUND SOARS ON FRESH BREXIT NEWS. KEY RESISTANCE TARGETED


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation data and U.S. Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectation yesterday and each strengthened the respective currency. The pair bounced at support but failed to break resistance and moved lower again, creating irregular movement.



Technical Outlook

The next big move will be decided by the break of 1.1825 support or 1.1875 resistance because yesterday the pair was rejected by both these levels, thus increasing their importance. Price is testing support for the second time but at the time of writing it is showing rejection and has moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which make us anticipate a move into 1.1875 and possibly a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day will be the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate, which is the main gauge of inflation across the Eurozone and has a high impact on the currency itself. The expected change is 1.6% from the previous 1.4% and anything above forecast strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 10:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD


News that the EU and UK have reached an agreement regarding the Brexit “divorce” bill, boosted the Pound to fresh highs and took the pair 200 pips higher. The pair gave up some of the gains later in the day but momentum favours the bulls. 



Technical Outlook

The bounce seen at 1.3225 was generated by strong fundamental reasons, not so much by the technical side, so the effects may extend over a longer period. In the short term we expect to see a touch of the key resistance located at 1.3450 (better seen on a Daily chart), where we expect to see a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene is calm today for the Pound, without any scheduled releases. That being said, caution is recommended because the Pound is prone to strong movement if surprising news come out.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:12 am
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE IS SHATTERED AS A NEW WAVE OF US DOLLAR WEAKNESS HITS THE MARKET


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement early during yesterday’s session but in the afternoon the US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure and price shot through 1.1875 resistance.



Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.1825 support or to close below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair started to rally strongly without any high impact news behind the move. Price is now out of the consolidation area between 1.1875 and 1.1825, showing strong momentum, facts which make us anticipate a touch of 1.1945 – 1.1950 resistance in the near term. If price reaches that mark we expect it to bounce lower, at least momentarily. 

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most notable release will be the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers who are asked to rate business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the expected reading is 58.4.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its ascension yesterday and moved through the psychological resistance at 1.3500. The move was mostly due to US Dollar weakness and a positive sentiment surrounding the Pound.



Technical Outlook

After the initial push above 1.3450, price returned to re-test the level, which rejected it higher, turning into support. This level was a strong resistance (better seen on a Daily chart), so we can expect it to act as strong support in the future. As long as the pair remains above 1.3500, the next destination is 1.3600 but that mark will not be hit today probably, unless surprises happen. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought, warning of potential retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is today’s only highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 56.6. Just like the U.S. PMI mentioned above, this survey tries to gauge optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it shows a reading above expectations.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:58 am
FOREX NEWS: POLITICAL TURMOIL IN THE U.S. HINDERS THE DOLLAR’S RECOVERY

EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. politics took center stage Friday as Michael Flynn, Trump’s ex-national security adviser pleaded guilty of lying to the FBI regarding his communication with the Russian ambassador. The news weakened the US Dollar and reversed the pair from an earlier drop.



Technical Outlook

Price was moving below 1.1875 support before the Flynn news hit but most of the pair’s losses were erased and now we can clearly see a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar will likely suffer from the aftermath of Friday’s developments, so we expect the pair to remain above 1.1875 and possibly move closer to 1.1945.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release today will be the U.S. Factory Orders, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a reading of -0.3% from the previous 1.4%. The indicator shows changes in the total value of orders placed with manufacturers and has a medium to low impact on the greenback. Higher than anticipated values strengthen the US Dollar and are indicative of rising production (factories will increase activity to fill the orders).

 

GBP/USD

Friday’s trading session was controlled by the bears although the US Dollar was affected by political turmoil. The pair is now testing the previous resistance, which may turn into support.



Technical Outlook

The bulls ran out of steam at 1.3550, where the sellers took over and drove the pair all the way down to 1.3450. The way price behaves at this level will determine the day’s direction: if 1.3450 turns into support, thus rejecting the pair higher, then we will most likely see a touch of 1.3500. If the level is broken, the pair will start moving towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, we expect a rather slow trading session unless surprises happen.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI will be released, showing the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the forecast 51.2 usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is low if the actual number matches expectations.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:25 am
FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT TARGETED AS THE US DOLLAR IS SHOWING MINOR RECOVERY SIGNS




Forex News: The US Dollar seems to have recovered from Friday’s weakness, partly aided by better than expected Factory Orders. Also, the U.S. Senate passed the tax-reform bill and this brought a breath of fresh air to the battered greenback.









Technical Outlook
The pair bounced yesterday at 1.1875 (which is now resistance once again) and is approaching 1.1825 support. The oscillators are showing mild bearish momentum but the pair is again trapped between 1.1825 and 1.1875 so the overall picture is blurry and we don’t expect major developments until one of the two levels is broken. As long as price is trading below the 50 period EMA and below 1.1875, our bias is slightly bearish.




Fundamental Outlook
It’s a pretty slow day for the Euro, without any major news releases and on the US Dollar side the Non-Manufacturing PMI will be the only notable announcement. The survey gauges the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions, excluding the Manufacturing sector and has a medium impact on the US Dollar. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT, the expected number is 59.2 and usually, values above forecast boost the Dollar.




 




GBP/USD
The Pound benefited from fresh optimism surrounding Brexit negotiations and pushed higher during yesterday’s session but failed to reach the resistance at 1.3550 before dropping lower.









Technical Outlook
The bulls ran out of steam before reaching the resistance located at 1.3550 and now the pair is showing rejection and increased bearish pressure. For today we expect to see a break of 1.3450 and a move into 1.3410, where the pair will also bump into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this support zone can be surpassed, we will probably see an extended move to the downside, otherwise the pair is likely to resume the uptrend.




Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector about business conditions in said sector. The survey doesn’t have a huge impact on the Pound but numbers above forecast (55.2) usually strengthen the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:46 am
FOREX NEWS: U.S. JOBS IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair tried again to break 1.1875 but bounced lower and reached the bottom of the channel. A worse than expected U.S. Services PMI then weakened the US Dollar, creating a brief climb.





Technical Outlook
Although the greenback was temporarily weakened by a disappointing PMI, the pair is still trying to break support and to move out of the horizontal channel created by 1.1825 and 1.1875. Given that price bounced several times at 1.1875 and is now showing some bearish momentum, we expect to see a break of 1.1825 followed by a stronger move south.


Fundamental Outlook
Today at 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. jobs with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S. excluding the farming sector and Government but has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday. However, numbers above the forecast 191K usually strengthen the US Dollar.


 


GBP/USD
The Sterling was weakened yesterday by a worse than expected reading for the Services PMI but later in the afternoon the U.S. Services PMI disappointed as well, so the US Dollar gave back most of the early gains, creating a choppy session.




Technical Outlook

The failed break of the confluence zone created by 1.3410 support and the 50 period EMA shows that the bulls are trying to regain control of the pair and this makes us anticipate a touch of 1.3450 or even a small climb above it. However, the pair is showing bearish pressure because it failed to break 1.3550 or to even reach it a second time and this suggests that a full candle close below the 50 EMA will mark the beginning of a longer period of downside movement.


Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, so the technical aspect and the U.S. jobs data will be the main price drivers.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:44 am
FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. THE US DOLLAR STARTS TO REGAIN ITS MOMENTUM

EUR/USD 

Forex News: The ADP Non-Farm Employment report came very close to the anticipated value, so the release did not have a major impact. However, the US Dollar continued to drag the pair lower, generating a bearish session with only brief moments of upside movement.





Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair broke 1.1825 decisively and is now finally out of the horizontal channel that confined it (1.1875 – 1.1825). This means that the bears are in control of short term price action and possibly that we will see a move closer to 1.1735. Until price gets there, we will surely see retracements to the upside but as long as price is trading below 1.1825, our view is bearish.


Fundamental Outlook

Today is a slow day for both currencies and the only notable event will be a press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi. The conference will be presented by the Bank for International Settlements and held at the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt. The impact is hard to anticipate but caution is recommended.

 

GBP/USD

Bearish action continued yesterday and the pair reached the next support. Most of this behavior was due to Pound weakness generated by Brexit concerns.





Technical Outlook

The break of the confluence zone created by 1.3410 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be considered a big victory for the bears, and we expect to see an extended move lower, towards 1.3320. The current level (1.3360) is a minor support but it rejected price higher yesterday, so we may see a push into 1.3410 and the 50 EMA but we don’t expect that resistance zone to be broken.


Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic day ahead, as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:06 am
FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL NFP REPORT OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued on a downward path yesterday but price action was mostly choppy due to the lack of economic releases. The speech of ECB President Draghi did not have a strong impact on the single currency.



Technical Outlook

Bearish momentum is starting to fade as we see more and more candles with long wicks and also, the pair hasn’t made any significant advances yesterday. This suggests that a move up will soon follow but as long as the pair is trading below 1.1825 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is negative. Today the US jobs data will have a strong impact on the pair’s direction, so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

There’s nothing important on the calendar for the Euro but the US Dollar will be heavily affected by the most important US jobs report: the Non-Farm Employment Change (aka Non-Farm Payrolls). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The time of release is 1:30 pm GMT, the expected reading is 198K (previous 261K) and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

 

GBP/USD

The pair dropped into the support at 1.3320 early in yesterday’s trading session but the Pound recovered the losses after an EU official mentioned that progress has been made on Brexit negotiations.



Technical Outlook

The pair’s movement remains very dependent on any Brexit news that come out without warning but from a technical perspective, as long as price is not clearly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias remains mostly bearish. Of course the US Dollar will be affected today by major employment data, so the technical side will be overshadowed by the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is today’s only notable indicator for the Pound. The report shows changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually has a medium impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 0.1%.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:00 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TESTS SUPPORT, BEARS BUILD UP STEAM FOR ANOTHER PUSH LOWER



EUR/USD


Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a better than expected reading but the previous value was revised lower and this generated a mixed reaction and a perfect bounce at support.






Technical Outlook


The target at 1.1735 was touched Friday and price reacted to it by bouncing higher but the medium term bias remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. After the current bullish retracement is complete, we expect to see a break of 1.1735 and a consequent move into 1.1700 but today will most likely be a slow day, with price trading in a relatively tight range.


Fundamental Outlook


The JOLTS Job Openings will be today’s only release worth mentioning, although this indicator has a negligible impact most of the time. It shows the monthly number of job openings, excluding the farming sector and usually strengthens the US Dollar if the actual value surpasses estimates. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 6.03 Million.


 


GBP/USD


Even before the U.S. jobs data came out Friday, price started to drop and the Non-Farm Payrolls added more fuel to the US Dollar, taking the pair into support. A minor bullish move was seen late in the afternoon but the session was overall bearish.






Technical Outlook


The bulls failed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3500 and this is another blow to the medium term uptrend. The picture is mixed but the bounce at 1.3360 will most likely trigger a climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3410. However, if this resistance zone holds and rejects price, we will probably see a break of 1.3360.


Fundamental Outlook


The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any notable release. This may translate into a slow and ranging trading session.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:59 am
FOREX NEWS: POUND TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE BRITISH CPI RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic scene was calm and without any major data releases; however, the pair continued higher at a relatively slow pace and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The last few bullish candles are showing wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which may suggest that the retracement started at 1.1735 is coming to an end. If the 50 period EMA is surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.1825 but at the moment it seems like the pair is lacking the strength to break that mark. A bounce lower at the 50 EMA will make 1.1735 the new target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 300 German analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. This is an indicator of economic health and optimism, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 17.9 can strengthen the Euro but the impact is usually medium.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US Producer Price Index will come out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The forecast is a change of 0.4% and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar because the indicator has inflationary implications.



GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session yesterday, amid a lacklustre economic environment. Neither side was in clear control but an early climb was quickly reversed.




Technical Outlook

The bulls tried yesterday to move price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.3410 resistance but the attempt resulted in a long rejection candle and a drop into the support at 1.3360. The pair’s direction today will be heavily influenced by the British inflation data, so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary but if the pair stays below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a drop into 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index will be released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The expected reading is 3.0%, same as previous.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 2017
  
EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Producer Price Index released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations of 0.4%, so the release didn’t generate strong movement. However, the session was controlled in most part by the bears and the pair touched support.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1735 rejected price several times in the past and acted as a strong barrier, so a break would mean a big victory for the bears and would take the pair into 1.1700 in the very near future. Our outlook is bearish, anticipating such a move but also, we expect a retracement if price hits 1.1700 mark. The US Dollar will be affected by the Fed rate announcement, so we may see choppy price action until the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day will be the Fed rate announcement scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT and followed shortly after (7:30 pm GMT) by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The Fed is expected to hike the rate from the current <1.25% to <1.50% and if this is the case, the US Dollar will likely see a boost of volatility, so caution is expected.

Earlier in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be released and since this is one of the main gauges of inflation, higher numbers than the forecast 0.4% will likely strengthen the greenback.

 

GBP/USD

Yesterday the British CPI posted a value of 3.1%, above the expectations of 3.0% and this initially created Pound strength but immediately after, the US Dollar took over and erased all Pound gains, creating a choppy session.



Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price briefly above 1.3360, the pair descended and is now testing 1.3320 support on the back of mild US Dollar strength. It must be noted that the candles have long wicks in their upper part, which is a sign of rejection at resistance and increased bearish pressure, so we expect to see a break of the current support (1.3320) and a move into 1.3280 where a pullback may occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Average Earnings Index will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. The expected change is 2.5% (previous 2.2%) and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be affected by the Fed announcement later in the day.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:08 am
FOREX NEWS: FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT IS DONE. ECB AND BOE NEXT!


Forex News: The Fed hiked the interest rate to <1.50% as it was widely anticipated but the Rate Statement didn’t show a hawkish stance and this allowed the pair to climb. Also, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned uncertainty about inflation in her press conference and this further weakened the US Dollar.





Technical Outlook
The pair bounced at 1.1735 support and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average with authority but stopped at 1.1825 at the time of writing. We expect this resistance level to be broken and price to head into 1.1875 in the near future. If the pair bounces lower from the current level but still remains above the 50 EMA, the outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move into the next resistance.


Fundamental Outlook
The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the release will most likely create increased volatility. Later at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference where he will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the press conference is known to be a strong market mover, so caution is recommended because the impact cannot be anticipated.


At the same time (1:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The impact is usually high and numbers above the forecast 0.6% strengthen the US Dollar.






GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound capitalized on the Fed rate announcement yesterday and the pair moved to the upside, surpassing the 50 period EMA and making the short-to-medium term outlook bullish.





Technical Outlook
Downside movement stalled around 1.3320 and price jumped into 1.3410 after the Fed rate announcement and press conference. The bullish momentum is likely to take the pair above the current resistance and closer to 1.3450 – 1.3500. A retracement will follow if the pair reaches these levels but as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, our bias is bullish.


Fundamental Outlook
The first release of the day will be the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%. The indicator usually boosts the Pound if it posts readings above forecast and the opposite is true for values below expectations.


At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but since no change is anticipated for quite a long while, we expect the event to create only moderate volatility unless surprises happen.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 231
Points : 1079
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

Yesterday at 9:45 am
FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AFTER ECB PRESSER. BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES
  
EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB left the interest rate unchanged as expected and the Euro had a mixed reaction, first spiking higher and then retracing into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar on the other hand, was boosted by better than expected Retail Sales and this contributed to the drop.




Technical Outlook


The pair is now showing a candle with a very long upper wick, which is a clear sign of rejection; however, the US Dollar is still lacking strong momentum and the pair is testing the 50 period EMA, so we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario. If the Moving Average will be broken, the pair may try to break 1.1735 again and otherwise, we expect to see a move above 1.1825 and closer to 1.1875. Today we don’t have major announcements, so we may see a ranging trading session.


Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Industrial Production will be the most notable release of the say, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The report tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by factories and has a positive impact on the greenback if it posts a higher than expected value.


 


GBP/USD
The Pound was boosted in the early part of yesterday’s trading session by upbeat British Retail Sales but it had a muted reaction to the BOE decision to maintain rates unchanged, as expected. Later in the session the US Dollar recovered some of the early losses and took the pair into support.




Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bounce at 1.3450 can be considered a simple retracement so the outlook remains bullish. Today’s price action will likely take place between the 50 EMA and 1.3450 and a break of one of these boundaries will probably trigger a stronger move in that direction. However, the economic calendar is light today and this could translate into a slow session.


Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.
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