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Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:37 pm
FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, BEARS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s economic announcements didn’t affect the pair significantly and the bearish momentum that was started Thursday continued throughout the day, after a brief retracement to the upside.



Technical Outlook

The massive drop seen during the last 2 trading days brought both oscillators in oversold territory and this fact, combined with the level of support at 1.1000 might generate a bullish bounce. If this comes true, the first level where downside movement will possibly resume is 1.1100. We expect a break of 1.1000 in the near future, but it should be confirmed by a re-test, at least on the lower time frames.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, expected to show a value of 108.1, slightly lower than the previous 108.5. This survey is highly respected due to its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that will rate the current economic conditions as well as expectations for the next 6 months. Usually, higher values are beneficial for the euro and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound Friday and the pair travelled below two important levels, opening the door for a new downtrend.



Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure is still strong and the pair is now moving south with good momentum which we expect to continue throughout the day. However, the bullish trend line seen on the chart above might hinder such downside movement if it’s not broken soon or if price shows rejection around it. A bounce higher will find potential resistance at 1.5330 followed by 1.5370; the oscillators are approaching an extreme reading so we may see an encounter with the levels mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced by the technical side today, as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic announcements.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:18 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. DURABLE GOODS, U.K. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – WE’RE IN FOR A BUSY DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a slow session yesterday, but completed a retracement after touching 1.1000 support. The German IFO Business Climate survey showed a value close to analysts’ expectations so the impact was muted.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1000 offered good support and generated a bullish retracement which may extend into the resistance at 1.1100. The fact that both oscillators are in oversold territory and moving upwards increases the chances of a bigger move north but the overall picture remains bearish and we expect at least another encounter with 1.1000 if not a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show a -1.1% change (previous -2.3%). These are orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years, with higher values showing increased economic confidence and activity and thus a stronger dollar.

At 2:00 pm GMT the CB Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinion of about 5,000 households about the current economic conditions in the US. High levels of confidence suggest that consumers will spend more in the near future and this usually benefits the greenback so values above the forecast 102.5 may bring the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly on a bullish path yesterday, but no major breakouts occurred and overall we had a slow session.



Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we talked about rejected price higher, sending the pair into the resistance at 1.5370 but the bullish pullback stopped there. Today we expect another attempt to break the bullish trend line and the bearish momentum started Friday to continue. To the upside 1.5370 remains resistance but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be hard for the bulls to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, thus higher numbers than the expected 0.6% (previous 0.7%) usually strengthen the Pound.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW OR GETS A PUSH. THE FED DECIDES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite worse than expected US economic data, the pair moved lower yesterday and this shows the greenback possesses underlying strength and that we are likely to see further downside.



Technical Outlook

The bearish movement is likely to continue today and 1.1000 is the first target. The Stochastic is clearly out of oversold so a bearish cross will announce a possible fall, but the Relative Strength Index is still close to its 30 level and overall the picture offered by the oscillators is pretty blurry. Price action might be slow during the day until the big Fed event scheduled in the afternoon.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. Unlike in September, a change is not expected (currently <0.25%) but a surprise will generate huge movement on all US Dollar pairs. At the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, outlining the reasons that stood behind the rate decision.


GBP/USD

The Pound was negatively affected by a disappointing value of the British Gross Domestic Product (forecast 0.6%; actual 0.5%) that generated a bearish trading session and a break of the bullish trend line.



Technical Outlook

Price is below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the oscillators are curved downwards but not oversold and the bullish trend line is broken so all things point towards a bearish market and probably an encounter with 1.5200 in the near future. If the pair starts to move to the upside, first resistance will be offered by 1.5330 and the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements but the pair will be directly affected by Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate and by the FOMC Rate Statement.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:55 pm
FOREX NEWS: END OF YEAR RATE HIKE STILL ON THE TABLE. LOOK FOR MORE US DOLLAR STRENGTH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Before the Fed released their rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement, price action was slow and choppy but as anticipated, the release created strong volatility, although the rate was not changed. The Fed made it clear that a potential hike is tightly correlated to jobs and inflation.



Technical Outlook

The US Dollar strengthened on optimism that a December rate hike is still on the table and the pair broke through 1.1000 with ease after a close encounter with the resistance at 1.1100 earlier during the day. Our bias for the pair is negative, expecting a touch of 1.0820 during the days to come but the strong bearish move is likely to see a rubber band effect and a pullback higher before the mentioned target can be touched. If this occurs, the first potential resistance is located at 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will release at 12:30 pm GMT the Advance Gross Domestic Product which is the first in a series of three versions but also the most important. Values above the expected 1.6% usually strengthen the greenback.

Half an hour later, at 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out, expected to show -0.1% while the previous was -0.2%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation and is currently considered too low, higher values will most likely strengthen the euro while the opposite is true for lower values.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained ahead of the FOMC release but the US Dollar erased all these gains when the Statement came out.



Technical Outlook

During yesterday’s movement, 1.5330 was confirmed as resistance and now we can expect this level to reject price if touched in the future. As for today, our outlook is bearish, expecting a continuation of the move started by the FOMC Statement; the pair is likely to come closer to 1.5200 but probably a retracement will occur before this level can be touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has scheduled a light calendar for today so the main focus will be on the US Advance GDP and the technical aspect.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:17 pm
FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE, US DOLLAR TAKES BACK CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI was slightly better than anticipated while the US Advance GDP showed a disappointing value and all this, combined with the rubber band effect we discussed yesterday, created a bullish retracement.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.0900 as support and bounced higher, mostly due to the reasons outlined above. Now we observe a bullish divergence (price is making lower lows but the Relative Strength Index is making higher lows) so the current move up might extend into 1.1000 which may turn into resistance. The overall picture still remains bearish, with 1.0900 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Retail Sales come out today at 7:00 am GMT, with a big increase anticipated, from the previous -0.4% to 0.4%. Because sales made at retail levels are a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers usually strengthen the euro. Later at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show 0.0% compared to the previous -0.1%. Higher numbers for this indicator usually benefit the euro as well.


GBP/USD

The Pound also benefited from disappointing U.S. data and the pair rallied but the move wasn’t significant and first resistance wasn’t threatened.



Technical Outlook

The pair created minor support around 1.5250 and this is now the first target of the day. The current up move could extend into 1.5330 resistance but we don’t expect this level to be broken considering that overall the short term trend is bearish and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is descending and will probably offer resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases scheduled for today so the pair will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:30 pm
FOREX NEWS: TOO HIGH, TOO FAST – BEARISH ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: For the most part of Friday the pair had a bullish bias, continuing to climb after the bounce at 1.0900 support. However, later in the afternoon the sellers stepped in and erased some of the gains.



Technical Outlook

The bullish divergence mentioned last week was a warning sign about an extended up move but now we note bearish divergence (price is making a lower high but the Relative Strength Index is making a higher high) and this could mean that we will see another drop. Price stopped very close to 1.1000 but if early in the day we will see a move below this level, probably most of the day will be controlled by the bears, heading into 1.0900 (probably such a move will not be completed in one day).

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate the current level of business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers above the forecast 50.0 are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is higher if the actual number differs significantly from the analysts’ consensus.


GBP/USD

The Pound exhibited tremendous strength Friday and totally reversed the bearish momentum seen earlier, breaking several resistances and opening the door for more upside movement.



Technical Outlook

The strong move seen Friday is likely to retrace lower before heading higher and the first potential bounce area is 1.5370 combined with the recently broken 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are touching their overbought levels, increasing the chances of a move south. A key level of resistance remains 1.5500 so if price heads there without retracement, it will probably bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will also release their Manufacturing PMI earlier in the day, at 9:30 am GMT. Similar to the U.S. indicator, this index usually strengthens the currency if higher than anticipated values are posted. The forecast is 51.3, a slight change from the previous 51.5.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDING UP. BULLS STILL ACTIVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released yesterday was close to analysts’ expectations and the impact wasn’t tremendous. Overall the session was choppy, with slow movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the support at 1.1000 but movement was mostly sideways and the bearish divergence is still present, making us anticipate a drop below the mentioned level. A move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.1100 would invalidate a bearish scenario and would shift the short to medium term bias in favour of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases for the euro and the greenback but late afternoon at 7:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at an event titled the European Cultural Days 2015, in Frankfurt. The late hour and the fact that the speech’s topic is not monetary policy, may translate in a lower than usual impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a good first part of yesterday, on the back of a better than expected value posted by the British Manufacturing PMI (actual 55.5, forecast 51.3), so the pair touched 1.5500 resistance, but failed to break it and retraced lower in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

As anticipated, a touch of a strong resistance like 1.5500, combined with the overbought condition of the oscillators, triggered a move south. If the support zone created around 1.5415 can reject price higher, then we will probably see a break of 1.5500 resistance; otherwise we expect a touch of the bullish trend line which was broken earlier but can still offer some form of support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, with an expected value of 58.9, lower than the previous 59.9. Same as with the other PMIs, higher values are beneficial for the Pound and the impact will be bigger if the actual value differs a lot from analysts’ expectations.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT – A STEP CLOSER TO A RATE DECISION


EUR/USD


Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the pair descended so the bears regained control over short term price action and we expect the downside to continue.



Technical Outlook

The bearish divergence we talked about a day earlier proved a reliable sign for a drop and now the pair is trading well below 1.1000, headed towards 1.0900. The oscillators are not oversold and the pair is moving with good speed so a stronger retracement is likely to happen around 1.0900. A sudden reversal of direction will probably find resistance near 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, then later in the day at 1:15 pm GMT we will take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This is a report issued by a privately owned company and doesn’t have the strong impact of the government data which comes out Friday but numbers above the anticipated 183K usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, on the topic of bank regulation. The impact on the greenback can be strong so caution is recommended, as always when heads of central banks speak publicly.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out very close to analysts’ consensus and the impact was muted but the pair traveled south for the most part of yesterday, with some bullish price action in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5415, piercing through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the previously broken trend line but signs of rejection are present as the last four hour candle has a very small body and a long wick. If during the day the low of the last candle is broken, we expect a touch of 1.5330, otherwise we will most likely see a choppy trading day.

Fundamental Outlook

The last British PMI in the series is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey gauges the optimism of purchasing managers regarding the services sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers than the anticipated 54.6 will most likely strengthen the Pound.
Broj poruka : 619
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:05 pm
FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE POUND: BOE INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION REPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair continued its descent yesterday and was not much affected by the economic releases or by the speeches of the two heads of central banks, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi.



Technical Outlook

The bears scored an important victory yesterday by breaking 1.0900 support and now the pair is headed towards 1.0820. We anticipate a touch and later a break of this level but before that can happen, the pair is likely to stall or even retrace higher, with 1.0900 zone being a good place for downside movement to resume. The oscillators are entering oversold, warning about a potential bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Retail Sales are released at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show an increase of 3.0% from the previous 2.3% (annualized numbers). Such a climb would suggest that economic activity is increasing and would be beneficial for the euro.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI showed a value of 54.9 yesterday, close to analysts’ estimation of 54.6 and the Pound didn’t react strongly; the later part of the day was controlled by the bears who managed to take price below support.



Technical Outlook

During the last couple of days, price created minor support at 1.5360 and this will be the first barrier that needs to be broken en route to 1.5330. The pair is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the oscillators moving downwards, without being oversold so the bearish momentum is likely to continue.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains a 2-year outlook for economic growth and inflation. At the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change anticipated from the current 0.50%) and a breakdown of the members’ rate votes. Later at 12:45 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report; strong moves are possible during these events and caution is recommended throughout the day.
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Broj poruka : 619
Points : 1323
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Nov 06, 2015 12:39 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA AHEAD. BRACE FOR IMPACT!


EUR/USD


Forex News: The European Retail Sales numbers came out worse than anticipated, creating some euro weakness but overall yesterday’s trading session lacked strong movement and one-sided control.



Technical Outlook

The pair climbed in very close vicinity of 1.0900 which will probably turn into resistance now. If this is the case, we expect price to drop into 1.0820 and to break it if the U.S. employment data will show that more jobs than anticipated were created during the previous month. Please note that both oscillators are clearly oversold and starting to move upwards, increasing the chances of a bullish move; however, the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the NFP release.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released and a huge impact is expected, especially because the Fed have made it clear that a rate hike is tightly correlated with jobs and inflation. It is safe to assume that a better than expected value of today’s release will spur speculation about a December rate hike and will strengthen the US Dollar. The forecast is for 179K new jobs, better than the previous 142K.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged as anticipated but the Inflation Report revealed they have lowered inflation and economic growth expectations. The Pound reacted swiftly yesterday and dropped for more than 150 pips.



Technical Outlook

The bears took price below support and have regained control over the pair but the level of 1.5250 is still not decisively broken and will probably offer some support. Also, a big move is often followed by a pullback so we are likely to see at least a brief period of stagnation before the downside can resume. The U.S. jobs data released today will be a deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released at 9:30 am GMT, with an expected change of 0.4% (previous 0.5%) and later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. The previous value was 0.5% and values above it usually strengthen the Pound; the same is true for the Manufacturing Production numbers but we expect the US jobs data to be the day’s highlight.


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Broj poruka : 619
Points : 1323
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE “RUBBER BAND” EFFECT MAY BRING LIMITED UPSIDE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Employment report surprised everyone in the market by posting a huge and unexpected value of 271K while the forecast was 181K. The US Dollar strengthened swiftly and the pair dropped for more than 170 pips.



Technical Outlook

The trend is bearish, no doubt, but retracements higher are due, mostly because a strong move often generates a rubber band effect and price pulls back a little because it’s too extended. The first support is located at 1.0660 but probably the pair will pull back to 1.0820 before it can head into this level. The Relative Strength Index has been moving above and below its lower level without touching the upper boundary for quite a long while and now it is oversold, increasing the chances of moves north.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by finance ministers and other personalities from the Euro zone. The meetings are usually closed to the press but sometimes participants speak to journalists during the day and this can create some volatility on euro-related pairs.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound as well Friday, on the back of the surprisingly better than anticipated NFP report and the pair continued the downside momentum started Thursday.



Technical Outlook

The overall picture is obviously bearish, with the pair trading below key levels but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory and this calls for a retracement higher or at least a period of sideways movement. The first barrier (and a good place for downside movement to resume) is the recently broken support at 1.5100, which can turn into resistance if price will bounce off of it.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic announcements for today but British representatives will participate in the Eurogroup Meetings mentioned earlier and this could affect the Pound to some extent.


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Broj poruka : 619
Points : 1323
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Godina : 27
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:20 pm
FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERSOLD STILL CALLS FOR FURTHER UPSIDE?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Overall we had a slow session yesterday, with limited upside retracements and another move south later in the afternoon. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the slow movement.



Technical Outlook

The small retracement which we anticipated seems to be complete now and this suggests that the next stop is 1.0660 support zone. The oscillators are still trading close to their oversold levels but this is normal in a downtrend and doesn’t necessarily mean that a reversal is coming. In the eventuality that price starts to move up, the first potential resistance is located at 1.0820.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today, with the only important event being the ECOFIN Meetings, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The impact of the meeting on the currency market differs, depending on the matters discussed but caution is recommended nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher and encountered resistance that stopped the upwards momentum but overall we had a slow session compared to the way last week ended.



Technical Outlook

Price breached the resistance at 1.5100 and soon rejected was seen, but the upside move can still continue above this level. The oscillators are trying to come out of deep oversold territory so a clear break of 1.5100 is very possible; if this scenario occurs, we are likely to see further upside movement but the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be the main focus today as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news or economic indicator releases.


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Broj poruka : 619
Points : 1323
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 11, 2015 3:54 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REGAINS CONTROL AGAINST EURO, POUND STILL PLAYS HARD TO GET


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar started to regain its control over the euro as yesterday we saw a new low and a move closer to support. The day lacked major economic data releases and most of the session was controlled by the bears.



Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to hit 1.0660 support and once this happens, we expect a struggle for control between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index is again entering oversold so we may see a move higher after the touch of 1.0660, with the first potential resistance being 1.0790. ECB President Mario Draghi speaks today and the euro is likely to have a strong reaction.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks are closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so the New York session is susceptible to irregular volatility and possibly choppy movement. At 1:15 pm GMT, ECB President Mari Draghi will deliver a speech at Bank of England's Open Forum 2015. As always, his public speeches should be treated as potential market movers and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

During the first part of yesterday’s trading session the Pound inched higher against the US Dollar but the pair soon showed signs of rejection; overall neither buyers nor sellers made significant advances.



Technical Outlook

Price has moved above 1.5100 but the long wick of the last four-hour candle shows clear rejection and warns that a move lower is likely to occur. If the bears can indeed take the pair below 1.5100, the first target is represented by the minor support created around 1.5030. Also keep in mind that 1.5000 is strong psychological support and is likely to stop the pair if a stronger drop occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we get a look into British unemployment with the release of the Claimant Count Change scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected number is 1.6K (previous 4.6K) and usually higher values are detrimental for the Pound because the economy is contracting when more people are unemployed.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 12, 2015 2:36 pm
FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI’S “DOUBLE TROUBLE” APPEARANCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The speech of ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t trigger strong moves yesterday and overall the entire session lacked strong movement. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the choppy price action.



Technical Outlook

We still anticipate a move into 1.0660 which is likely to occur today but neither side seems to be interested to make a decisive move. The oscillators offer mixed signals, without clear direction so we must wait for an exit from this congestion zone. The levels to watch remain 1.0660 as support and 1.0790 as first resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first appearance is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT when he will testify on monetary policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The second speech is scheduled at 10:30 am GMT and this time the President will talk about his role as Chairman of the European Systemic Risk Board, at the European Parliament. These two speeches will probably create more movement than what we’ve seen yesterday but the impact cannot be anticipated so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Despite a worse than expected number for the British Claimant Count Change, the Pound rallied higher yesterday and tested the resistance 1.5200, creating another bullish day.



Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break the important level at 1.5200 but the medium term direction is down and the Stochastic has entered overbought. This makes us believe that another leg of the recent downtrend will begin and that price will bounce lower from here, aiming for 1.5100. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity, increasing the chances of a bounce lower, but a move above 1.5200 will make 1.5250 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic data releases but the US Dollar (and obviously the pair) will be influenced by the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen scheduled at 2:30 pm GMT in Washington DC. She will open the Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in the Post-Crisis Period but she will not answer audience questions so the impact might be muted; however, caution is recommended.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Sat Nov 14, 2015 6:30 am
FOREX NEWS: CURRENCIES IN TURMOIL AS EUROPEAN AND U.S. MONETARY POLICIES DIVERGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi emphasised during yesterday’s appearances that the bank may extend the stimulus program and that inflation downside risks are still present, weakening the euro as a result. However, later in the day some Fed officials voiced their concerns about U.S. inflation and the greenback gave back all the gains.



Technical Outlook

Overall yesterday’s trading session was characterized by whipsaws and sharp reversals on the lower time frames but we can now notice rejection off of 1.0790 resistance. The last four hour candle shows a long wick formed when the bulls breached resistance but lacked the strength to close above it. Another attempt to close above 1.0790 will be probably made today and a failure will suggest that price will finally head into 1.0660. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity of resistance, creating a confluence zone which will be more difficult to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary CPI is released at 7:00 am GMT, expected to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. This is the main gauge of German inflation, which is a big part of overall European inflation, so higher values are beneficial for the euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, expected to show an increase of 0.3% (previous 0.1%). Since sales made at retail levels represent an important part of the entire economic activity and the Fed is on the verge of increasing rates, a higher value will probably spur once again speculation about a hike and thus, will strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to increase to 91.3 from last month’s 90.0; because consumer sentiment is closely correlated with consumer spending, a higher value for this survey will likely strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a tumultuous trading session yesterday, moving above and below 1.5200 but failed to establish a clear direction.



Technical Outlook

After moving very close to 1.5250 the pair bounced lower and is now trading below 1.5200 but the direction is not clear. The bulls have been very active lately so we may see another attempt to touch and possibly break 1.5250 but note the overbought condition of the Stochastic which has now crossed downwards and is moving below its 70 level. This could generate some bearish pressure but it shouldn’t be considered a sell signal on its own.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic data announcements today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. events mentioned above.

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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 16, 2015 2:56 pm
FOREX NEWS: TECHNICAL POINTS TO A DROP, FUNDAMENTAL WILL DECIDE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price movement was influenced by the economic releases as the Euro was weakened by lower inflation values and the US Dollar was negatively affected by worse than expected Retail Sales numbers.



Technical Outlook

The resistance zone created between 1.0790 and 1.0820 rejected price lower and bearish divergence is present on both oscillators (price is making a lower high and the oscillators are showing higher highs). This suggests that a move lower is likely to happen today or in the near future but the first barrier that needs to be broken is the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, followed by 1.0660.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Final version of the European CPI comes out, expected to show no change from the previous 0.0%. This is the least important version because the German Prelim CPI and European Flash Estimate are already released, but a value which differs from analysts’ expectations can trigger strong moves, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Euro.

ECB President Mari Draghi will deliver a speech at 10:15 am GMT, in Madrid, at the European Roundtable of Industrialists Plenary Session. The impact is not known but a hawkish attitude will strengthen the Euro and the opposite applies for a dovish stance.


GBP/USD

The pair made an attempt to break the congestion zone by moving above resistance but the impulse faded and turned into a move lower which was also reversed soon after. The entire Friday session was characterized by irregular price behaviour.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is completely flat and price is moving sideways, trapped in a horizontal channel. Until the pair breaks out of this congestion zone, we can expect further choppiness and sharp reversals on the lower tine frames. The levels to watch are 1.5200 as support and 1.5250 as resistance and a breakout should be confirmed by a re-test of the respective level. 

Fundamental Outlook

There are no events on the British calendar today so the pair will be primarily influenced by the technical side of the market.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:45 pm
FOREX NEWS: BRITISH AND U.S. INFLATION DATA GUARANTEE A VOLATILE TRADING DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and rather choppy, with the pair descending close to the previous low even if the European Final CPI showed a better value than analysts’ expected.



Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we mentioned a day earlier is now broken and the bears seem to gather up strength so we expect a touch and a consequent break of 1.0660 support. However, there is not a lot of strong movement and both bears and bulls seem undecided so if the pair will touch 1.0660 today, we expect it to bounce higher on the first attempt to break it; this can all change, depending on US inflation data.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released today at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 6.7 compared to the previous 1.9. Higher readings are beneficial for the Euro but the day’s main event will be the release of the U.S. Consumer Price index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and inflation plays a major role in Fed’s decision to raise the interest rate or to keep it unchanged. Higher values than the forecast 0.2% (previous -0.2%) will most likely strengthen the US Dollar. Pay attention to the CORE version of the indicator (excludes food and energy), released at the same time.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair also had a slow and choppy session, with price grinding below the lower boundary of the horizontal channel. Even if this barrier was broken, we cannot deem the move a breakout.



Technical Outlook

Before we can consider 1.5200 support broken, we have to see a move below it, followed by a successful re-test. Until this scenario occurs, the market is still ranging and in indecision mode. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, confirming the pair doesn’t have clear direction but all this can change today when British inflation data comes out.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released. Since this is the most important gauge of overall inflation, its outcome usually has a strong impact on the Pound and a higher change than the forecast -0.1% (previous -0.1%) can positively impact the Pound.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:51 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO PREPARES FOR RETRACEMENTS, US DOLLAR STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY FOMC MINUTES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Price Index matched analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t have the anticipated strong impact on price action. However, the pair did reach the projected target zone around 1.0660.



Technical Outlook

Although the bears managed to drive the pair into a new low and threatened 1.0660 support, the momentum seems to fade away and we expect a bounce higher before a new attempt to break this support will be made. The Stochastic has entered oversold and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (price is making a lower low but the oscillator is only making a higher low) and these signs support our short term bullish bias. Of course a clean break of 1.0660 would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will release today at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details of their latest meeting and also insights into the reasons that determined them to keep the interest rate unchanged. More importantly, the Minutes can contain hints about whether we will see or not a rate increase later this year. Usually the impact is strong on the greenback so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI posted the value that was anticipated by the majority of analysts but the CORE version of the indicator showed a slight increase and this fact triggered upside movement after an early morning drop.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5200 support but the re-test we talked about a day before wasn’t successful so the break proved to be a false one. Now price is once again between 1.5200 and 1.5250 and the direction is not clear but the last four hour candle shows a long upper wick and this is a sign of rejection (however, not a very strong one). The pair remains in ranging mode until support or resistance is broken and then successfully re-tested.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic announcements today so price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and of course, by the FOMC Meeting Minutes.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:22 pm
FOREX NEWS: PRESSURE MOUNTS, BREAKOUTS EXPECTED AS FOMC MINUTES GIVE MIXED SIGNALS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes the pair started to move to the upside but the document contained mixed signals, with some Fed members seeing a December rate hike still on the table and others suggesting that an increase might bring risks to the economy.



Technical Outlook

Price action at the time of the Minutes’ release was choppy and irregular, mostly because the market had difficulties interpreting the mixed signals given by the document. No substantial advances were made and price is still hovering close to 1.0660, with the Stochastic moving up and exiting oversold, so upside action is a distinct possibility but it all depends on how the market will interpret the Minutes and their impact.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. The impact varies for each release but usually higher numbers than the forecast 0.1 (previous -4.5) will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

For the most part of yesterday the pair continued to move erratically and to reverse all moves. The FOMC Minutes didn’t manage to break the range but some bullish action was seen.



Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading between 1.5200 support and 1.5250 resistance, so even if the latest impulse is bullish, we cannot expect stronger movement until resistance is broken and re-tested from above. If price shows signs of rejection around 1.5250, we expect a bounce that will take it back into 1.5200.

Fundamental Outlook

A high impact indicator is released today: the British Retail Sales. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is -0.4%, a huge drop from the previous 1.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire economic activity so a higher than expected change will likely strengthen the Pound.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND, STRUGGLES TO REGAIN CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair moved higher yesterday, showing that the market interpreted the FOMC Minutes as dovish and that most traders now have a slightly bullish bias.



Technical Outlook

The current move up is a retracement for the overall downtrend so we expect the pair to continue its movement south once the pullback is complete. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier in front of rising price but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are showing bullish momentum so we may see a move into 1.0790 before the bearish movement can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases today but ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. The scheduled time is 8:00 am GMT and his attitude could very well decide the euro direction for the entire day, especially if he will talk about ECB’s monetary policy.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a disappointing value of -0.6% (forecast -0.4%) and the Pound weakened but only briefly and soon after the bulls regained control of the pair.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5250 was broken and then successfully re-tested from above so we can assume we are dealing with a true break and probably moves higher will be next. Short term support sits now at 1.5250, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is starting to curve upwards. The first bullish target is represented by 1.5330 and we expect retracements lower once it is touched, mostly because both oscillators will probably be oversold at the time.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing is released at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable indicator of the day but the impact is often overlooked. The expected value is 5.5B (previous 8.6B) and usually, lower numbers are beneficial for the currency.

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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:09 pm
FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BACK IN ACTION, THREATENING KEY SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar regained control over the Euro during Friday’s trading session on the back of hawkish comments made by New York Fed President Dudley who suggested that positive economic data may trigger a rate hike “relatively soon”.



Technical Outlook

The pair descended below 1.0660 but this cannot be considered a true break until price puts some distance between it and the mentioned level. It has to be noted that on a Daily chart the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both very close to oversold and this situation has been going on for a relatively long while, so we can expect stronger moves to the upside. However, the overall direction is down and bullish moves could be considered good opportunities to sell; the first resistance is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the French Flash Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a figure of 50.7 and half an hour later the indicator with the same name but for the German economy is released, with a forecast value of 52.2. These surveys act as leading indicators of economic health and higher numbers usually strengthen the euro.

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today but are closed to the press; some volatility can be created if information about the discussions leaks to journalists. Once the meetings are concluded, a formal statement is released.


GBP/USD

The effects of William Dudley’s comments were better seen on the Pound-Dollar pair as the bears managed to break support Friday and to generate strong downside action.



Technical Outlook

After the almost perfect bounce at 1.5330 resistance, the pair traveled through 1.5250 and 1.5200, heading for the minor support at 1.5155. The oscillators are moving down, with good momentum and without being oversold so we expect the mentioned level to be touched today. As an alternate scenario, we might get a slow day, with price moving above and below 1.5200, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Pound is not affected by major economic announcements but British representatives will participate in the Eurogroup Meetings so volatility may be present.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:46 pm
FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS AHEAD, FUELLED BY A HEAVY ECONOMIC CALENDAR


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar established a new low early in the morning and then the bulls managed to bring the pair higher on the back of a better than expected value of the German Flash Manufacturing PMI so yesterday’s movement was mixed, without substantial moves.



Technical Outlook

Late in the afternoon the pair touched the level at 1.0660 and bounced lower, turning it into short term resistance. Probably during today’s trading session we will see another attempt to move above 1.0660 and the way price behaves near the level will determine the next move. The oscillators on a Daily chart are still oversold, increasing the chances of a move north but we are still in a downtrend and it’s likely to see a move into 1.0500 soon.

Fundamental Outlook

Three important events are scheduled for today: at 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, expected to show 108.3 (higher values are beneficial for the euro) and later, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Prelim Gross Domestic Product is released, showing the overall performance of the American economy. The forecast annualized change is 2.0% (previous 1.5%) and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar, bringing the pair lower.

The final announcement of the day is the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show 99.3 (previous 97.6). Because consumer confidence is tightly correlated with consumer spending, higher numbers could strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a difficult to trade session yesterday, characterized by a sharp reversal and movement above and below resistance.



Technical Outlook

The minor resistance at 1.5155 wasn’t very important yesterday as price moved above and below it without bouncing on it. However, the last four hour candle shows a huge wick in its upper part and this is a clear sign of rejection, meaning that we will probably see a touch of 1.5100 today. Bullish movement will encounter resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and at 1.5200.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place; BoE Governor Mark Carney and members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on economic outlook and inflation before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. The Pound will be most likely affected by these talks so caution is recommended until the hearings have concluded.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: MIXED ACTION AHEAD OF U.S. DURABLE GOODS, NEW HOME SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday when the German IFO survey posted a figure that surpassed analysts’ expectations, but a better than expected value of the American GDP brought the pair lower so overall we had a day driven by the economic releases.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.0660 was briefly breached yesterday but the pair is showing rejection now and this makes our bias bearish for a touch of 1.0500 support. To the upside, 1.0660 remains good resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if price will break these forms of resistance, turning them into support, we are likely to see a move into 1.0790.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.6%, while the previous was -1.2%. These are goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and are usually more expensive so a higher demand for such goods suggests a thriving economy, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales come out, with a forecast of 500K, higher than the previous 468K. Since the housing market is very important for the U.S. economy, higher than expected values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Inflation Report Hearings were overall dovish and the Pound suffered the effects yesterday, weakening and heading significantly lower. 



Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.5155 again and bounced lower, confirming the level as resistance. During yesterday’s sell off, the pair broke the support at 1.5100 and is now headed towards the next support, located at 1.5030. Both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are oversold, which is an early warning that a bullish pullback will soon happen; if this is the case, the pair can find resistance at 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by the US releases and by the technical side of the market.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:34 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. BANKS CLOSE THEIR DOORS FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. US DOLLAR MOVES ERRATICALLY


EUR/USD


Forex News: ECB Vice President Constancio made dovish remarks yesterday about downside risks to economic growth and potentially further action from the ECB at their 4th of December meeting; the euro collapsed through 1.0660 as a result.



Technical Outlook

After a brief move above 1.0660 the pair dropped and we saw the strongest movement of the latest period. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance and now the downtrend is resumed with both oscillators moving downwards, without being oversold. The next target is 1.0500 but today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving so the market is likely to suffer from low liquidity, irregular volatility and possibly choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone didn’t schedule major news releases and banks in the United States are closed, celebrating Thanksgiving Day. Caution is recommended, for the reasons outlined above.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar moved without clear direction yesterday, above and below 1.5100, without being much affected by the US economic data that came out during the day.



Technical Outlook

Price breached 1.5100 to the upside but bounced lower soon afterwards and now the pair is trading below this level, making us anticipate a touch of 1.5030. However, we have to note that the oscillators are exiting oversold areas and on top of that, the bearish momentum seems to be fading. These factors favour a move to the upside, possibly close to 1.5155 but the market signals are mixed and caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today but Thanksgiving will affect the US Dollar and consequently the pair’s movement.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:53 pm
FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BULLS RESUME ACTIVITY, VOLATILITY PICKS UP AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the United States celebrated Thanksgiving Day and as expected, the euro-dollar pair didn’t make significant advances to either side. Also, the economic calendar didn’t contain major news releases, contributing to the slow action.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s sideways price action doesn’t change our bearish bias and we are still anticipating a move into 1.0500 support. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.0660 create a confluence zone which can offer strong resistance if touched from below but on the other hand, a break of this zone would be a sign that the bulls are ready to erase some of the losses and to create a stronger retracement to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the Spanish Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of -0.5% (previous -0.7%). Spanish inflation is important for the Eurozone but we don’t expect to see strong movement at the release time unless the actual figure differs a lot from analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The pair continued to reverse all impulses and had another day when it travelled above and below 1.5100, without establishing a clear direction.



Technical Outlook

Price is confined inside a triangle and before we can see any directional movement, this pattern needs to be broken. Once that happens, the first bullish target is 1.5155 and to the downside, 1.5030 remains key support. If the pair will reach either the bullish or the bearish target, we expect it to bounce or stop for a while. Direction will be affected today by the economic data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product which is not anticipated to change from the previous 0.5%. The Preliminary version of the GDP (already released) is the most important, but today’s release can bring strong movement as well, with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: A BUSIER MONDAY THAN USUAL: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. HOUSING DATA AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was a pretty slow day, with some bearish price action but the previous low wasn’t broken and no other major advances were made.



Technical Outlook

Price action is mostly sideways and the pair is contracting between 1.0660 and 1.0570 which is now minor support. Usually a contraction period is followed by a breakout and because today Germany releases important economic data, we expect such a breakout to occur, with the direction depending on the actual numbers posted. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first area of resistance and if broken, the bullish movement is likely to continue for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales are released, expected to show a change of 0.3% compared with the previous 0.0%. Because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers are beneficial for the German economy and thus for the euro. Later in the day, at 1:00 pm GMT, the German Preliminary CPI comes out, with an anticipated value of 0.1% (previous 0.0%); inflation growth could translate in a stronger euro, so look for bullish moves if the forecast comes true or if higher numbers are posted.

On the US Dollar side we have the Pending Home Sales, released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.6% increase (previous -2.3%). The indicator has medium impact but higher values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a bearish Friday, breaking below a bullish trend line and touching support. The British GDP matched analysts’ expectations so the release didn’t have a strong impact.



Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to bounce higher at 1.5030 support creating a bullish retracement. The first target of this pullback is the recently broken bullish trend line, followed by the resistance at 1.5100. If 1.5030 support is broken to the downside, the next barrier is represented by 1.4970. The oscillators are still moving downwards, favouring an extended move south but the economic calendar is light today so it’s possible to see slow movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow for British economic announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. housing data.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: CRAWLING ALONG SUPPORT. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had an incredibly slow day, despite worse than expected German Retail Sales which normally would weaken the euro. The support was not broken and price moved mostly sideways.



Technical Outlook

The pair is crawling on 1.0570 support and totally lacks momentum but this behaviour will most likely come to an end today. A breakout and a move outside the range defined by 1.0570 and 1.0660 are expected but the direction of this breakout is difficult to anticipate considering how the pair has been moving lately, so look for a re-test of the broken level and keep in mind that false breaks can occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States release the Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the only potential market mover of the day for the dollar. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health but as always the impact will be stronger if the actual number differs from analysts’ forecast (which is 50.6), with higher values strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair managed to break 1.5030 support and touched 1.5000 but soon retraced higher, creating a whipsaw and overall a difficult trading session.



Technical Outlook

The bears failed to capitalize on the break of support and on top of that, a bounce is visible at 1.5000 psychological support. The Stochastic is oversold starting to curve upwards and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (oscillator makes higher lows while price prints lower lows). All these factors make us anticipate a move upwards, into 1.5100 resistance. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.5000 will open the door for a touch of 1.4970.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report, along with the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Two hours later, at 9:00 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the results of the Stress Tests and the Stability Report. This will probably be the most volatile time of the day, with strong moves and possibly sharp turns.

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 53.7. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound but this release is likely to be eclipsed by Mark Carney’s press conference mentioned earlier.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR VOLATILITY: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION AND EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. Manufacturing data came out worse than expected yesterday and the greenback felt the consequences, weakening against most of its counterparts and triggering a bullish day for the euro-dollar pair.



Technical Outlook

The bullish retracement is likely to extend higher if the current resistance zone can be surpassed. Initial short term resistance is located at 1.0640, followed by 1.0690 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will play an important role because it can become support if the pair closes a full candle above it. We favour the upside but we are in a downtrend so a clean break of 1.0560 can trigger additional movement south.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is announced, expected to show a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.1%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation, which is currently to low, higher numbers will strengthen the euro, potentially having a strong impact.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator doesn’t have the huge impact of the NFP which is released two days later but nonetheless, it offers a first look into U.S. employment situation, thus higher numbers than the expected 191K will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech was rescheduled yesterday one hour earlier than initially programmed and overall his attitude was hawkish, expressing optimism about the economic outlook and the Bank Stress Tests results.



Technical Outlook

The pound reacted to Carney’s comments by rallying higher against the greenback and hitting 1.5100 zone of resistance. Now it is showing rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and has moved back below 1.5100 so for today we anticipate another attempt to break 1.5000 key support. A lot will depend on the economic data released throughout the day so the technical aspect might be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event that will affect the pair’s movement is the British Construction PMI, a survey of about 170 purchasing managers who will offer their opinion on the health of the construction sector. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the expected number is 58.4 and figures above it will most likely strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, the pair will be affected by the U.S. jobs indicator mentioned earlier.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:20 pm
FOREX NEWS: A BIG DAY FOR THE EURO – ECB ANNOUNCES INTEREST RATE, TALKS ABOUT INCREASED STIMULUS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Inflation in the Eurozone decreased as showed by yesterday’s CPI release and across the ocean, the jobs situation has improved. All this created an overall bearish trading session but support is still holding.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s movement wasn’t huge, we expect the dollar strength created by positive jobs data and the euro weakness created by disappointing inflation numbers to bring more downside pressure for the pair. The first barrier in front of the bears is the horizontal support at 1.5060 and the next target is the more important level at 1.0500. A move up will encounter resistance at 1.0640 but we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the euro as the ECB announces their rate decision today at 12:45 pm GMT. There is no change expected (currently 0.05%) but there has been speculation about increased quantitative easing (QE) so the press conference that follows at 1:30 pm GMT will be even more important than usual. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will discuss the rate decision and a possible increase of the QE but will also answer journalists’ questions so we expect strong movement and we recommend caution during the day.


GBP/USD

The British Construction sector showed a worse than expected number, while the greenback benefited from the jobs data, creating a strongly bearish session yesterday and breaking key support.



Technical Outlook

The support levels at 1.5000 and 1.4970 were broken decisively yesterday and although the downtrend is now renewed, we expect a rubber band effect and a move higher. This move will likely find resistance around 1.4970 and should be considered just a consequence of the fact that price travelled too low, too fast. In other words, a retracement higher is due, followed by another dip lower; however a close of a four hour candle above 1.5000 could suggest that the downtrend is exhausted.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Services PMI comes out, expected to show an increase to 55.1 from the previous 54.9. The indicator measures optimism among purchasing managers from the services sector but usually has a medium impact; higher than expected values are beneficial for the Pound.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, with the topic being monetary policy. Depending on her attitude, the event may create volatility, thus caution is recommended.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:52 pm
FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS CONTINUE. FOCUS SHIFTS ON U.S EMPLOYMENT DATA FOR ANOTHER WILD DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB decided to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points, in an attempt to raise inflation in the Eurozone. During the press conference that followed ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that ECB’s measures will “ensure accommodative monetary conditions”.



Technical Outlook

The euro soared against most of its counterparts and the greenback was no exception. The pair climbed dramatically yesterday, breaking several resistance levels in a move that extended more than 350 pips but the next direction will be heavily dependent on the U.S. jobs situation and a potential rate hike later this month. Such a huge move is likely to retrace lower after a bounce at 1.0900 but considering yesterday’s movement, almost anything is possible so use caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be overshadowed today by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 201K new jobs compared to the previous 271K. The Fed is closely watching employment levels for their decision to raise rates and this makes today’s release more important than usual, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

British Services PMI came out higher than expected, strengthening the Pound but the massive move seen on the pair yesterday wasn’t entirely generated by this report.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved north through several levels but it appears to have found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart. Same as with the EUR/USD, the next move will depend on the result of the NFP report but strictly from a technical perspective, we expect a move lower, which can find support at 1.5000. If here price shows rejection, we are likely to see a bounce higher, above the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be the highlight of the day, potentially triggering strong moves.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:33 pm
FOREX NEWS: DELAYED IMPACT OF THE NFP RESULTS. THE US DOLLAR HITS BACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s most anticipated event failed to deliver the volatility we expected and although the NFP report showed that 211K new jobs were created during the past month (forecast 201K), the US Dollar didn’t strengthen substantially.



Technical Outlook

The pair did retrace lower on the back of limited US Dollar strength but movement was choppy and difficult to trade. For today we expect slow price action, confined between 1.0825 support and 1.0900 resistance. It is possible that we will see a test of the high created last Thursday (1.0980) but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by political and financial figures from the European Union member states. The event is closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and once the meetings have concluded, an official statement is released. Increased volatility is possible, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Choppy movement was seen on the pound-dollar pair as well and the better than expected U.S. employment data didn’t affect much the greenback. Indecision is present as the market searches for the next direction.



Technical Outlook


Price stopped close to the level at 1.5100, which now acts as some form of support but a couple of candles closed below it and the rest show long wicks, suggesting indecision. The latest down move is considered just a retracement to the strong up move seen Thursday but a drop below 1.5100 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would suggest that the effects of the better than expected NFP report are starting to show, making 1.5030 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook


At 3:00 pm GMT the Governor of the Bank of England will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. The exact impact is not known but a hawkish attitude will generate Pound strength and a dovish attitude will weaken the currency, bringing the pair lower.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:47 pm
FOREX NEWS: MOVING TIMIDLY LOWER. SUPPORT STILL IN THE WAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The effects of the better than expected NFP report were seen during yesterday’s trading session and the pair moved lower in what is still a retracement to the big move seen last week.



Technical Outlook

The bears are struggling to break 1.0825 support, with the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic coming out of overbought. If this barrier can be broken, the pair will most likely head towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where it will probably start to move up again. On the other hand, a bounce above 1.0825 would suggest a continuation of the move started last Thursday and at least a touch of 1.0900.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings are the day’s main event. These are attended by finance ministers from the European Union member states and usually the volatility isn’t much affected, unless some very important talks take place; nonetheless, caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair moved lower yesterday, but no major moves occurred and although support was breached, this cannot be considered a clear break.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5075 was broken yesterday but price did not move lower once this happened. Movement is slow and it doesn’t look like the bears have enough strength to reach 1.5000 or even 1.5030. A full candle closed below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average could tilt the balance in favour of the short side and a full candle closed above it would put the bulls in short term control, aiming for 1.5160.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 9:30 am GMT, expected to show a change of -0.1% compared with the previous 0.8%. The manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy, so a drop might weaken the Pound.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is released. The previous number was 0.6% and higher values are beneficial for the Pound but the extent is sometimes limited.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA IS SCARCE, OSCILLATORS OFFER MIXED SIGNALS, TECHNICAL SIDE PREVAILS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed a bullish bias yesterday, bouncing at support and heading into resistance. The day lacked major news announcements and overall we had a calm trading session.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.0825 support shows that the bulls are preparing to make another run for 1.0980. For that to happen, 1.0900 resistance must be broken but this is not a major level so if the bullish pressure continues, we are likely to see it broken soon. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought again, but the Stochastic is not showing the same behaviour so the signals are mixed and not very reliable.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic news announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect a day when price direction will me mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production numbers showed a worse than expected value and this was the main reason for the drop below support seen yesterday.



Technical Outlook


Although the pair moved below 1.5030 and 1.5000 on the back of disappointing economic data, later in the afternoon it erased most of the losses, climbing back into 1.5000. If price will bounce lower here, the level will turn into resistance and we will probably see a move into 1.4895 support during the days to come. The Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is approaching the same condition so the oscillators favour a move up, above 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom also has a slow day in terms of economic releases so the technical side will be the primary focus of traders around the globe.


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Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:05 am
FOREX NEWS: BANK OF ENGLAND TAKES CENTRE STAGE FOR THE RATE AND STATEMENT RELEASE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday was a good day for the euro as it showed strength, taking the pair into the highs seen during the ECB press conference that took place last week.



Technical Outlook

Price is likely to bounce lower around 1.0980 resistance, considering that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving in overbought territory. Also, the pair moved almost 200 pips to the upside without even the smallest retracement and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, with 1.0900 as target. Keep in mind that 1.1000 represents a psychological resistance so that would be another good place for a retracement to start. Overall the picture remains bullish so we expect further upside price action after the said pullback.

Fundamental Outlook


The U.S. Unemployment Claims are the day’s only notable event, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 266K compared to the previous 269K. A larger number of unemployed individuals is detrimental for the economy so it may weaken further the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a strong day against the US Dollar, moving strongly above 1.5075 resistance and threatening 1.5160.



Technical Outlook


From a technical perspective the resistance at 1.5160 is key for medium-to-short term price movement and the way price behaves here will probably reveal the next direction. Although the price is now moving with strong momentum to the upside, we expect it to bounce lower but a lot of today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the Bank of England and their rate decision so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce their official bank rate along with the Monetary Policy Summary which will outline the reasons behind the rate decision. At the same time a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is released, showing how each member voted; however, no change is expected, either for the rate (0.50%) or for the members’ stance, but this cluster of events is likely to trigger volatility nonetheless.


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