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GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:35 pm
FOREX NEWS: A BUSIER MONDAY THAN USUAL: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. HOUSING DATA AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was a pretty slow day, with some bearish price action but the previous low wasn’t broken and no other major advances were made.



Technical Outlook

Price action is mostly sideways and the pair is contracting between 1.0660 and 1.0570 which is now minor support. Usually a contraction period is followed by a breakout and because today Germany releases important economic data, we expect such a breakout to occur, with the direction depending on the actual numbers posted. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first area of resistance and if broken, the bullish movement is likely to continue for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales are released, expected to show a change of 0.3% compared with the previous 0.0%. Because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers are beneficial for the German economy and thus for the euro. Later in the day, at 1:00 pm GMT, the German Preliminary CPI comes out, with an anticipated value of 0.1% (previous 0.0%); inflation growth could translate in a stronger euro, so look for bullish moves if the forecast comes true or if higher numbers are posted.

On the US Dollar side we have the Pending Home Sales, released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.6% increase (previous -2.3%). The indicator has medium impact but higher values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a bearish Friday, breaking below a bullish trend line and touching support. The British GDP matched analysts’ expectations so the release didn’t have a strong impact.



Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to bounce higher at 1.5030 support creating a bullish retracement. The first target of this pullback is the recently broken bullish trend line, followed by the resistance at 1.5100. If 1.5030 support is broken to the downside, the next barrier is represented by 1.4970. The oscillators are still moving downwards, favouring an extended move south but the economic calendar is light today so it’s possible to see slow movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow for British economic announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. housing data.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:57 pm
FOREX NEWS: CRAWLING ALONG SUPPORT. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had an incredibly slow day, despite worse than expected German Retail Sales which normally would weaken the euro. The support was not broken and price moved mostly sideways.



Technical Outlook

The pair is crawling on 1.0570 support and totally lacks momentum but this behaviour will most likely come to an end today. A breakout and a move outside the range defined by 1.0570 and 1.0660 are expected but the direction of this breakout is difficult to anticipate considering how the pair has been moving lately, so look for a re-test of the broken level and keep in mind that false breaks can occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States release the Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the only potential market mover of the day for the dollar. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health but as always the impact will be stronger if the actual number differs from analysts’ forecast (which is 50.6), with higher values strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair managed to break 1.5030 support and touched 1.5000 but soon retraced higher, creating a whipsaw and overall a difficult trading session.



Technical Outlook

The bears failed to capitalize on the break of support and on top of that, a bounce is visible at 1.5000 psychological support. The Stochastic is oversold starting to curve upwards and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (oscillator makes higher lows while price prints lower lows). All these factors make us anticipate a move upwards, into 1.5100 resistance. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.5000 will open the door for a touch of 1.4970.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report, along with the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Two hours later, at 9:00 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the results of the Stress Tests and the Stability Report. This will probably be the most volatile time of the day, with strong moves and possibly sharp turns.

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 53.7. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound but this release is likely to be eclipsed by Mark Carney’s press conference mentioned earlier.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR VOLATILITY: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION AND EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. Manufacturing data came out worse than expected yesterday and the greenback felt the consequences, weakening against most of its counterparts and triggering a bullish day for the euro-dollar pair.



Technical Outlook

The bullish retracement is likely to extend higher if the current resistance zone can be surpassed. Initial short term resistance is located at 1.0640, followed by 1.0690 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will play an important role because it can become support if the pair closes a full candle above it. We favour the upside but we are in a downtrend so a clean break of 1.0560 can trigger additional movement south.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is announced, expected to show a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.1%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation, which is currently to low, higher numbers will strengthen the euro, potentially having a strong impact.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator doesn’t have the huge impact of the NFP which is released two days later but nonetheless, it offers a first look into U.S. employment situation, thus higher numbers than the expected 191K will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech was rescheduled yesterday one hour earlier than initially programmed and overall his attitude was hawkish, expressing optimism about the economic outlook and the Bank Stress Tests results.



Technical Outlook

The pound reacted to Carney’s comments by rallying higher against the greenback and hitting 1.5100 zone of resistance. Now it is showing rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and has moved back below 1.5100 so for today we anticipate another attempt to break 1.5000 key support. A lot will depend on the economic data released throughout the day so the technical aspect might be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event that will affect the pair’s movement is the British Construction PMI, a survey of about 170 purchasing managers who will offer their opinion on the health of the construction sector. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the expected number is 58.4 and figures above it will most likely strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, the pair will be affected by the U.S. jobs indicator mentioned earlier.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:20 pm
FOREX NEWS: A BIG DAY FOR THE EURO – ECB ANNOUNCES INTEREST RATE, TALKS ABOUT INCREASED STIMULUS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Inflation in the Eurozone decreased as showed by yesterday’s CPI release and across the ocean, the jobs situation has improved. All this created an overall bearish trading session but support is still holding.



Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s movement wasn’t huge, we expect the dollar strength created by positive jobs data and the euro weakness created by disappointing inflation numbers to bring more downside pressure for the pair. The first barrier in front of the bears is the horizontal support at 1.5060 and the next target is the more important level at 1.0500. A move up will encounter resistance at 1.0640 but we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the euro as the ECB announces their rate decision today at 12:45 pm GMT. There is no change expected (currently 0.05%) but there has been speculation about increased quantitative easing (QE) so the press conference that follows at 1:30 pm GMT will be even more important than usual. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will discuss the rate decision and a possible increase of the QE but will also answer journalists’ questions so we expect strong movement and we recommend caution during the day.


GBP/USD

The British Construction sector showed a worse than expected number, while the greenback benefited from the jobs data, creating a strongly bearish session yesterday and breaking key support.



Technical Outlook

The support levels at 1.5000 and 1.4970 were broken decisively yesterday and although the downtrend is now renewed, we expect a rubber band effect and a move higher. This move will likely find resistance around 1.4970 and should be considered just a consequence of the fact that price travelled too low, too fast. In other words, a retracement higher is due, followed by another dip lower; however a close of a four hour candle above 1.5000 could suggest that the downtrend is exhausted.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Services PMI comes out, expected to show an increase to 55.1 from the previous 54.9. The indicator measures optimism among purchasing managers from the services sector but usually has a medium impact; higher than expected values are beneficial for the Pound.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, with the topic being monetary policy. Depending on her attitude, the event may create volatility, thus caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:52 pm
FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS CONTINUE. FOCUS SHIFTS ON U.S EMPLOYMENT DATA FOR ANOTHER WILD DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB decided to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points, in an attempt to raise inflation in the Eurozone. During the press conference that followed ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that ECB’s measures will “ensure accommodative monetary conditions”.



Technical Outlook

The euro soared against most of its counterparts and the greenback was no exception. The pair climbed dramatically yesterday, breaking several resistance levels in a move that extended more than 350 pips but the next direction will be heavily dependent on the U.S. jobs situation and a potential rate hike later this month. Such a huge move is likely to retrace lower after a bounce at 1.0900 but considering yesterday’s movement, almost anything is possible so use caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be overshadowed today by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 201K new jobs compared to the previous 271K. The Fed is closely watching employment levels for their decision to raise rates and this makes today’s release more important than usual, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

British Services PMI came out higher than expected, strengthening the Pound but the massive move seen on the pair yesterday wasn’t entirely generated by this report.



Technical Outlook

The pair moved north through several levels but it appears to have found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart. Same as with the EUR/USD, the next move will depend on the result of the NFP report but strictly from a technical perspective, we expect a move lower, which can find support at 1.5000. If here price shows rejection, we are likely to see a bounce higher, above the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be the highlight of the day, potentially triggering strong moves.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:33 pm
FOREX NEWS: DELAYED IMPACT OF THE NFP RESULTS. THE US DOLLAR HITS BACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s most anticipated event failed to deliver the volatility we expected and although the NFP report showed that 211K new jobs were created during the past month (forecast 201K), the US Dollar didn’t strengthen substantially.



Technical Outlook

The pair did retrace lower on the back of limited US Dollar strength but movement was choppy and difficult to trade. For today we expect slow price action, confined between 1.0825 support and 1.0900 resistance. It is possible that we will see a test of the high created last Thursday (1.0980) but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by political and financial figures from the European Union member states. The event is closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and once the meetings have concluded, an official statement is released. Increased volatility is possible, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Choppy movement was seen on the pound-dollar pair as well and the better than expected U.S. employment data didn’t affect much the greenback. Indecision is present as the market searches for the next direction.



Technical Outlook


Price stopped close to the level at 1.5100, which now acts as some form of support but a couple of candles closed below it and the rest show long wicks, suggesting indecision. The latest down move is considered just a retracement to the strong up move seen Thursday but a drop below 1.5100 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would suggest that the effects of the better than expected NFP report are starting to show, making 1.5030 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook


At 3:00 pm GMT the Governor of the Bank of England will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. The exact impact is not known but a hawkish attitude will generate Pound strength and a dovish attitude will weaken the currency, bringing the pair lower.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:47 pm
FOREX NEWS: MOVING TIMIDLY LOWER. SUPPORT STILL IN THE WAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The effects of the better than expected NFP report were seen during yesterday’s trading session and the pair moved lower in what is still a retracement to the big move seen last week.



Technical Outlook

The bears are struggling to break 1.0825 support, with the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic coming out of overbought. If this barrier can be broken, the pair will most likely head towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where it will probably start to move up again. On the other hand, a bounce above 1.0825 would suggest a continuation of the move started last Thursday and at least a touch of 1.0900.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings are the day’s main event. These are attended by finance ministers from the European Union member states and usually the volatility isn’t much affected, unless some very important talks take place; nonetheless, caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair moved lower yesterday, but no major moves occurred and although support was breached, this cannot be considered a clear break.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5075 was broken yesterday but price did not move lower once this happened. Movement is slow and it doesn’t look like the bears have enough strength to reach 1.5000 or even 1.5030. A full candle closed below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average could tilt the balance in favour of the short side and a full candle closed above it would put the bulls in short term control, aiming for 1.5160.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 9:30 am GMT, expected to show a change of -0.1% compared with the previous 0.8%. The manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy, so a drop might weaken the Pound.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is released. The previous number was 0.6% and higher values are beneficial for the Pound but the extent is sometimes limited.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:15 pm
FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA IS SCARCE, OSCILLATORS OFFER MIXED SIGNALS, TECHNICAL SIDE PREVAILS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed a bullish bias yesterday, bouncing at support and heading into resistance. The day lacked major news announcements and overall we had a calm trading session.



Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.0825 support shows that the bulls are preparing to make another run for 1.0980. For that to happen, 1.0900 resistance must be broken but this is not a major level so if the bullish pressure continues, we are likely to see it broken soon. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought again, but the Stochastic is not showing the same behaviour so the signals are mixed and not very reliable.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic news announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect a day when price direction will me mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production numbers showed a worse than expected value and this was the main reason for the drop below support seen yesterday.



Technical Outlook


Although the pair moved below 1.5030 and 1.5000 on the back of disappointing economic data, later in the afternoon it erased most of the losses, climbing back into 1.5000. If price will bounce lower here, the level will turn into resistance and we will probably see a move into 1.4895 support during the days to come. The Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is approaching the same condition so the oscillators favour a move up, above 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom also has a slow day in terms of economic releases so the technical side will be the primary focus of traders around the globe.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:05 am
FOREX NEWS: BANK OF ENGLAND TAKES CENTRE STAGE FOR THE RATE AND STATEMENT RELEASE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday was a good day for the euro as it showed strength, taking the pair into the highs seen during the ECB press conference that took place last week.



Technical Outlook

Price is likely to bounce lower around 1.0980 resistance, considering that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving in overbought territory. Also, the pair moved almost 200 pips to the upside without even the smallest retracement and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, with 1.0900 as target. Keep in mind that 1.1000 represents a psychological resistance so that would be another good place for a retracement to start. Overall the picture remains bullish so we expect further upside price action after the said pullback.

Fundamental Outlook


The U.S. Unemployment Claims are the day’s only notable event, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 266K compared to the previous 269K. A larger number of unemployed individuals is detrimental for the economy so it may weaken further the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a strong day against the US Dollar, moving strongly above 1.5075 resistance and threatening 1.5160.



Technical Outlook


From a technical perspective the resistance at 1.5160 is key for medium-to-short term price movement and the way price behaves here will probably reveal the next direction. Although the price is now moving with strong momentum to the upside, we expect it to bounce lower but a lot of today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the Bank of England and their rate decision so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce their official bank rate along with the Monetary Policy Summary which will outline the reasons behind the rate decision. At the same time a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is released, showing how each member voted; however, no change is expected, either for the rate (0.50%) or for the members’ stance, but this cluster of events is likely to trigger volatility nonetheless.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:40 am
FOREX NEWS: FED RAISES RATES. WHAT’S NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected, the pair showed slow and mostly sideways price action yesterday ahead of the Fed announcement but once the rate was raised to 0.50% as expected, the pair started to pick up speed. It seems like the rate hike was priced in the market and participants needed something more from Fed Chair Yellen but she mentioned that further rate increases will not be abrupt, a fact considered dovish by most traders.



Technical Outlook

At rate time the pair briefly went below 1.0900 but Yellen’s dovish speech at the press conference triggered US Dollar weakness and a move into 1.1000. Nonetheless, we must keep in mind that the rate was raised and further tightening will follow so we are likely to see downside action in the near future. The support zone created by 1.0900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first bearish target, while resistance sits at 1.1040.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, expected to show a value of 109.2. The survey is based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current economic conditions and outlook for the next 6 months; the large sample size of the survey is mostly why it has a big impact on the market. Higher than expected values usually trigger euro strength.


GBP/USD

The pair was a bit more energetic than the euro-dollar but still, direction until the U.S. rate was unclear. Movement remained irregular even after the rate announcement and press conference.



Technical Outlook

Price is still confined inside the channel created by 1.5075 resistance and 1.5000 support and the direction of the breakout will probably decide the path of the pair for the medium term. We expect to see US Dollar strength and a clean break of 1.5000, followed by a move into 1.4955.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the British Retail Sales, which come out at 9:30 am GMT and are expected to post a change of 0.6% compared with the previous -0.6%. Increased numbers show a thriving economy and usually strengthen the Sterling.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:12 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS AS THE EFFECTS OF THE RATE HIKE BECOME CLEARER


EUR/USD


Forex News: The effects of the Fed decision to raise the interest rate to 0.50% became clearer yesterday and we saw US Dollar strength throughout the day. Movement wasn’t very fast but the pair moved down nonetheless.



Technical Outlook

The pair is pausing in close vicinity of the support located at 1.0825 but it is now clearly trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Fed decision didn’t create the huge movement that most market participants were expecting but we will most likely see further downside action once 1.0825 is broken. Keep in mind that the Stochastic is showing signs of oversold, thus moves north are a distinct possibility.

Fundamental Outlook


Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar today as no major economic data is scheduled for release.


GBP/USD

Although the British Retail Sales showed a change of 1.7%, much better than anticipated, the Pound showed just brief surges of power and the rest of the day belonged to the bears who managed to take the pair lower.



Technical Outlook


The move south broke through 1.4955 and is now testing 1.4895 but this is a key level for medium term price action and we expect to see some form of retracement to the upside. Note that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving below their respective oversold levels, increasing the chances of bullish pullbacks. If the pair starts to move to the upside, the first resistance and place where downside movement can resume is located at 1.4955, followed by 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Sterling has a light economic calendar ahead as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:46 pm
FOREX NEWS: BEARS STRUGGLE TO REGAIN CONTROL. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair took another short dive but then soon returned above support. The day lacked major news announcements or substantial developments.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0825 was briefly breached but the pair stopped at 1.0800 and started to move to the upside. Today we expect a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly 1.0900 but it’s less likely to see a break of these forms of resistance and instead we expect price to resume movement south once the mentioned zones are hit. Movement is likely to be slow throughout the day because the economic calendar is light and no major events are scheduled.

Fundamental Outlook


The entire week is slow in terms of economic data releases and today is no exception. The German Producer Price Index is the only notable indicator, which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services. The scheduled time is 7:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.2% but the impact is most times limited; nonetheless, higher values are usually beneficial for the single currency.


GBP/USD


Similar to the euro-dollar, this pair didn’t show a lot of determination Friday and moved mostly sideways, above and below support.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4895 is key for short term price action and we expect it to play a major role in today’s price direction. A break of this level would probably take price into 1.4830 (weekly chart support) and a bounce will make 1.4955 the immediate target. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index have reached oversold and are now curving upwards, a fact that increases the chance of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable indicators for today and this will probably contribute to a slow day in terms of price action.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: THE WINTER HOLIDAYS START TO MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN WITH LOW VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and no major economic data came out but the pair moved slowly to the upside, touching immediate resistance, without breaking it.



Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to reach 1.0925 but the extent of the climb should be limited, mostly because the Stochastic is entering overbought and price lacks strong upside momentum. Overall we still favour the bears and we expect to see US Dollar strength today, with 1.0825 being the first target. A move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would confirm this bias and would increase the chances of reaching the mentioned target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Final version of the United States Gross Domestic Product is released today at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change to 1.9% from the previous 2.1%. Although the Final version is the least important, it can still generate strong moves; as a rule of thumb, higher than expected values for this indicator trigger US Dollar strength.

The U.S. Existing Home Sales are released at 3:00 pm GMT but the impact of this indicator is medium-to-low; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 5.32M are usually beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

For the most part of yesterday the pair drifted sideways, without clear direction and showing very choppy movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair is stalling at 1.4895 and neither side is in control but this stall at support shows that the strength of the bears is starting to fade. This fact combined with the positions of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (which are exiting oversold and moving upwards) makes us believe that today we will see a move into 1.4955; however, a break of 1.4895 followed by a re-test from below would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers are released and this is the only notable indicator of the day. The forecast is 11.9B (previous 7.5B) and higher numbers are detrimental for the Pound because they show a higher budget deficit; the indicator usually has a low impact.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:50 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, NEW HOME SALES – LAST MAJOR INDICATORS AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS EVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite a better than expected value shown by the US Gross Domestic Product, the pair climbed for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and resistance was easily broken.



Technical Outlook


Now that the level at 1.0925 is broken, we expect the pair to touch the minor resistance located at 1.1010. If this level is broken, a stronger resistance is in close vicinity, at 1.1040 but we don’t expect the latter to be broken, mainly because the Stochastic is already overbought and the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching its 70 level. If 1.1010 is reached, we expect the pair to begin a downwards trajectory.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to show a change of -0.6% compared to the previous 3.0%. Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered “durable” and more orders are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales come out, with an anticipated number of 507K (annualized). The previous was 495K and numbers higher than forecast strengthen the US Dollar but sometimes the impact is mild.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar pair moved opposite to the euro-dollar and travelled south yesterday but the move was not spectacular.



Technical Outlook

Once price was free of 1.4895, it travelled to the next support, located at 1.4830 but the chances of a real break of this level are slim. It is possible to see a brief move below the current support but afterwards, we expect the pair to return above it. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are oversold and this increases the chances of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook


The only notable event for the Pound is the release of the British Current Account scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the difference between imported vs. exported goods and services; under normal circumstances a higher value than the forecast -21.3B is beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:47 am
FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS EVE SLOWS DOWN THE MARKETS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Home sales in the United States were lower than analysts’ expected and the Durable Goods Orders came out as forecast but the US Dollar still managed to take the pair down. However, no special developments took place.



Technical Outlook

The pair started to move lower without touching the minor resistance at 1.1010 but 1.0900 support couldn’t be broken decisively yesterday. For today we expect irregular movement, with a slightly bearish bias but the markets will be heavily affected by Christmas Eve which is celebrated in many parts of the world. The key zone for today’s price action remains 1.0925 – 1.0900 and a move to either side could generate additional strength but to a limited extent.

Fundamental Outlook

German banks are closed today in celebration of Christmas Eve and on the US Dollar side the only notable indicator is the Unemployment Claims, released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 270K. Usually, higher numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar but today’s release is likely to have a mild impact.


GBP/USD


As expected the pound-dollar pair broke support yesterday but soon after returned above it and touched resistance.



Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of both oscillators contributed to the climb seen yesterday and now the pair is struggling to break 1.4895 which has turned into resistance. The oscillators are moving upwards with good momentum so we are likely to see a break of the current resistance and a move into 1.4955. However, keep in mind that irregular price action is a distinct possibility due to Christmas Eve.

Fundamental Outlook


The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the technical aspect will determine price direction but the markets will be affected by low liquidity.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:23 pm
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE AND OVERBOUGHT LEVELS AHEAD – US DOLLAR PREPARES A COMEBACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: The market was closed Friday due to Christmas Day so today we will pick off from Thursday’s closing price.



Technical Outlook

Price action will be slow today and direction hard to anticipate. The first barrier to the upside is located at 1.0980, followed by 1.1010 and first support is located at 1.0870 but we don’t anticipate a break of either of these levels. If price does move past one of them, we expect it to return inside the range. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also act as support as long as price stays above it.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t offer any type of economic releases today so price action will be entirely ruled by the technical aspect but more so by the low liquidity characteristic for this period.


GBP/USD


Thursday the pair climbed and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so there was some Pound strength but to a limited extent.



Technical Outlook


The fact that we saw Pound strength Thursday doesn’t mean that today the impulse will continue and instead it’s very possible to see a move lower after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic has reached its 80 level on a four hour chart and this suggests that we might see a move lower which will probably touch 1.4895.

Fundamental Outlook


British banks are closed today, celebrating Boxing Day and no economic indicators are scheduled for release, thus we anticipate irregular price movement.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:24 pm
FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY DECREASES AS THE END OF THE YEAR APPROACHES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was not very active, mainly because the market is still “recovering” after the Christmas Holiday but also because no major economic indicators were released.



Technical Outlook

The pair slowly climbed above 1.0980 resistance but we cannot consider this a true break and on top of that, the Stochastic is already overbought, thus we anticipate a move lower next. The first target is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where we expect a bounce higher. If the pair will break 1.0980, the next potential turning point is 1.1010, followed by the more important 1.1040. Keep in mind that the market will be affected by irregular volatility for the whole week.

Fundamental Outlook


At 3:00 pm GMT the CB Consumer Confidence survey comes out, expected to show a value of 93.9, a hefty increase from the previous 90.4. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding economic conditions and usually a higher than expected number strengthens the US Dollar to a limited extent.


GBP/USD

British banks were closed yesterday in observance of Boxing Day and the pair traveled slowly lower, breaching the first support.



Technical Outlook

The US Dollar strengthened yesterday and the pair breached 1.4985 support but this level is not broken decisively and a move above it is still possible. However, we favor the short side, anticipating a move into 1.4830, especially if the current support will turn into resistance. If rejection at the current level is shown, then the pair will most likely travel into the level located at 1.4955.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases and in fact the entire week lacks important economic indicators so price action will be dictated by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES AHEAD OF U.S. HOME SALES DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The trading volume yesterday was thin and this made possible a fall which under normal circumstances would have been less sharp. Most of the US Dollar strength was due to a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.



Technical Outlook

The pair is currently struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if it succeeds, the next stop will probably be the support at 1.0870. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving downwards with good momentum and far from oversold so we can assume that the move will continue lower. However, if the moving average proves to be a support that’s too hard to break, the pair will most likely touch 1.0980 today.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Pending Home Sales come out at 3:00 pm GMT, expected to show an increase to 0.6% from the previous 0.2%. Such a change (or a greater one) would bring US Dollar strength and probably a move into support.


GBP/USD

The British Pound was one of the worst performers yesterday and weakened severely against the greenback, with the only apparent reason being the Consumer Confidence survey mentioned earlier.



Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.4830 was easily broken yesterday but today we expect a bullish pullback which may turn the mentioned support into resistance. The Relative Strength Index is touching its 70 level, approaching an oversold condition and increasing the chances of a push upwards. A continuation of the current move without any form of retracement is possible but not likely; however, if this is the case, the first potential support is located at 1.4700.

Fundamental Outlook


Just like the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic indicators so the focus will remain on the U.S. Pending Home Sales and on the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:08 pm
FOREX NEWS: FINAL TRADING DAY OF 2015


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price moved mostly sideways yesterday and this was in part because the end of year approaches fast and brings thin liquidity. The U.S. Pending Home Sales showed a worse than expected value but the release didn’t have a major impact.



Technical Outlook

Today we will probably see slow trading, possibly with alternating periods of low and high volatility. The levels to watch remain 1.0980 as resistance and 1.0870 as support and our bias is neutral until a break of either one occurs, followed by a re-test. The pair is likely to move sideways, without clear direction (mostly due to end of year low liquidity). If a break of one of the mentioned level occurs, price needs to show strong momentum, otherwise it’s very possible that we are dealing with a false break.

Fundamental Outlook

German banks are closed today, celebrating New Year’s Eve and no major indicators are released. On the US Dollar side, the Unemployment Claims release is the only notable event, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 274K. Values above expectations are usually detrimental for the greenback but we don’t expect a strong impact.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar, this pair had a sideways trajectory but it did return to test the recently broken support which is now resistance.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.4830 was tested from below but price didn’t bounce lower after the touch so this level can be considered some sort of resistance now, but not a strong one. Minor support sits at 1.4790 but both oscillators are moving upwards, coming from their respective oversold levels, so we don’t expect a break of the mentioned support. Price movement is likely to be choppy and irregular.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases and because it’s New Year’s Eve, volatility will be irregular. The markets will be closed during the first day of the year.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:03 pm
FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. MANUFACTURING DATA – INGREDIENTS FOR AN ACTIVE MONDAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday markets were closed in celebration of New Year’s Day so action picks up where we left off Thursday.



Technical Outlook

The pair is currently trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart so we favor the short side for a break of 1.0870 support and a move lower, into the next support located at 1.0800. The Relative Strength Index is approaching its 30 level which suggests oversold conditions and this may hinder further movement south but a lot will depend on the German inflation data released today and direction will probably be decided by the value shown by this indicator.

Fundamental Outlook


The day’s main event is the release of the German Preliminary CPI scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and expected to show an increase from the previous 0.1% to 0.2%. The German economy is a pillar of the entire Eurozone so an increase in inflation is beneficial for the euro. The second important release of the day is the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a small increase from 48.6 to 49.1. Because this is a leading indicator of economic health, a higher value will likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Thursday was the last trading day of last year and the pair traveled fast towards the support at 1.4700 but this move is likely to stall or reverse.



Technical Outlook


The minor support located at 1.4790 was broken decisively but a descent below 1.4700 is less likely. Fast moves like the current one are usually reversed or a period of sideways movement follows and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index is now below its 30 level so the pair is considered oversold and this further increases the chances of a bullish pullback. The first potential resistance for this pullback is represented by the recently broken level at 1.4790.

Fundamental Outlook


The highlight of the day for the Pound is the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, with a forecast value of 52.8 (previous 52.7). Similar to the American indicator with the same name, a higher value will strengthen the currency because it shows that purchasing managers are confident in current and future economic conditions.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:40 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STARTS THE NEW YEAR STRONG, THREATENS SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -0.1% (forecast 0.2%) and as a result the pair traveled south after an attempt to break the 50 period EMA.



Technical Outlook


The pair is trading once again below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the short term bias is bearish. If the sellers can take price below 1.0800 and turn this level into resistance, we will most likely see a move into 1.0700 – 1.0690 during the days to come. Both oscillators are in the lower part of the range but not oversold so the downside movement can continue; however, a bullish break of the 50 period EMA would make 1.0980 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is released, and anticipated to show a 0.4% increase compared to the previous 0.2%. The German CPI disappointed yesterday and this may negatively affect the Eurozone inflation but under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro. 


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar had an active day, with a lot of up and down movement but overall the pair didn’t make substantial advances, finishing the trading session close to where it started it.



Technical Outlook


The level at 1.4790 was breached yesterday but price soon returned below it, making this the first resistance in front of rising prices in the future. Price will most likely touch 1.4700 and the bears will attempt to break this support en route to the key level at 1.4600. Because the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are both approaching oversold levels, we consider that the pair is in need of a bullish retracement so it is very possible to see today a move below 1.4700 followed by a climb above this level.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 56.1 (previous 55.3). This is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:52 pm
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STARTS THE NEW YEAR STRONG, THREATENS SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -0.1% (forecast 0.2%) and as a result the pair traveled south after an attempt to break the 50 period EMA.



Technical Outlook

The pair is trading once again below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the short term bias is bearish. If the sellers can take price below 1.0800 and turn this level into resistance, we will most likely see a move into 1.0700 – 1.0690 during the days to come. Both oscillators are in the lower part of the range but not oversold so the downside movement can continue; however, a bullish break of the 50 period EMA would make 1.0980 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is released, and anticipated to show a 0.4% increase compared to the previous 0.2%. The German CPI disappointed yesterday and this may negatively affect the Eurozone inflation but under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro. 


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar had an active day, with a lot of up and down movement but overall the pair didn’t make substantial advances, finishing the trading session close to where it started it.



Technical Outlook


The level at 1.4790 was breached yesterday but price soon returned below it, making this the first resistance in front of rising prices in the future. Price will most likely touch 1.4700 and the bears will attempt to break this support en route to the key level at 1.4600. Because the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are both approaching oversold levels, we consider that the pair is in need of a bullish retracement so it is very possible to see today a move below 1.4700 followed by a climb above this level.

Fundamental Outlook


The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 56.1 (previous 55.3). This is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:58 pm
FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK INTO U.S. JOBS DATA MAY BRING THE YEAR’S FIRST UPSET


EUR/USD


Forex News: European inflation dropped to 0.2% as shown by yesterday’s CPI release and the single currency weakened swiftly, dropping below 1.0800.



Technical Outlook

The pair appears to be headed towards the next level of importance, which is 1.0690 and we favour a touch of this target. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both oversold and this suggests that a move north will soon happen. Such a move should be considered just a simple retracement and not a full scale reversal as long as price remains below 1.0800, which may turn into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator tries to mimic the Government released data that comes out 2 days later and has a lower impact than the latter, but shouldn’t be overlooked. Higher numbers than the expected 193K (previous 217K) are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

The Fed will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT. The document contains a detailed record of their latest meeting and offers insights into the reasons that determined the Fed to raise the interest rate in December. The impact can be high so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Although the British Construction PMI came out better than anticipated, the US Dollar still managed to take the pair below immediate support and to generate a bearish day.



Technical Outlook

Similar to the euro-dollar pair, we expect a retracement higher, towards 1.4700, mainly because the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are bouncing on their respective oversold levels. Before the said retracement occurs, the pair is likely to touch the support located at 1.4630 but we don’t expect a clean break of this level unless the U.S. data released throughout the day is much better than forecast.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the United Kingdom Services PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 55.6 (previous 55.9). The indicator doesn’t have a huge impact unless the actual number differs a lot from analysts’ forecast, but higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:14 pm
FOREX NEWS: DECEMBER RATE HIKE DEEMED A “CLOSE CALL”. HOW WILL THE US DOLLAR REACT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The first look into U.S. jobs data revealed that more jobs were created during the previous month than analysts had predicted but this only created a brief move down followed by a sharp reversal. The minutes revealed that some Fed officials considered the December rate hike a “close call” and this was seen as bearish for the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook


The oversold condition of the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index combined with the dovish FOMC Meeting Minutes will most likely trigger a move into 1.0800 where we expect downside movement to resume. A break above the mentioned level will probably extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bullish movement should be limited by this dynamic resistance. Overall the short term picture remains bearish after the retracement north is complete.

Fundamental Outlook


The only notable release of the day is the German Retail Sales, scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. The previous change was -0.4% and the one expected for today is 0.5%, so a hefty increase. If this forecast comes true, the pair is likely to move higher on the back of Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI came out with a value very close to analysts’ expectations, thus the event went mostly unnoticed. The FOMC Meeting Minutes created some US Dollar weakness but nothing significant.



Technical Outlook


The support zone created between 1.4630 and 1.4600 is very important and we don’t expect it to be broken easily. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both oversold, favoring a bullish move which is likely to reach 1.4700 or even the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once that happens, we favor another fall.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicators for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:21 pm
FOREX NEWS: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS – LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Retail Sales showed a lower value than analysts had anticipated, but it was still better than the previous and this contributed somewhat to yesterday’s climb above medium term resistance.



Technical Outlook

The pair shows good bullish momentum and the oscillators are moving strongly to the upside without being overbought. This suggests that the movement north is likely to continue but the level at 1.0870 may prove a strong resistance. If this is the case, we it probably see a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and into 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook


Price direction today will be heavily influenced by the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is widely considered the most important U.S. employment indicator and almost always its release creates strong movement, with higher numbers being beneficial for the US Dollar. The expected figure is 203K, lower than the previous 211K.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped yesterday below the support at 1.4565 which is an important level, better seen on a Weekly chart. The greenback continues to dominate the Pound and a retracement is still expected.



Technical Outlook

Price is slowly grinding lower without any sort of retracement and has even managed to breach 1.4565 key support. Both oscillators are crawling on their respective oversold levels and the pair seems in bitter need of a move higher which may occur today. The first potential resistance is located at 1.4630, followed by 1.4700 but the real direction of the day will be probably decided by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook


The British Trade Balance is released at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a number of -10.5B (previous -11.8B). Usually the indicator doesn’t create huge movements but nonetheless, a higher number can strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:04 pm
FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HINDERS FURTHER UPSIDE MOVEMENT. EFFECTS OF THE NFP STILL NOT DONE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The jobs situation in the United States improved in December as shown Friday by the better than expected value of the Non-Farm Payrolls report. However the greenback strengthened just briefly against the Euro and soon after the release the pair started to climb.



Technical Outlook


We are probably in for a slow day but the pair is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this suggests that bullish price action will continue at least until 1.0945 minor resistance is reached. This will be the first potential turning point, followed by 1.0980 and the overbought position of the Stochastic will favor a drop if one of these resistances holds.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic or political announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar and this contributes to our expectation of a slow trading session.


GBP/USD

The NFP release generated the expected impact Friday and the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated number, taking the pair below key support.



Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4565 is now broken but a stronger retracement to the upside is long overdue. We consider that the probability of moves north is high and we expect an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in the near future but probably not today. A more likely scenario is a move into 1.4565 followed by a period of ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of Europe and the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus the pair’s direction will be mainly dictated by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:11 pm
FOREX NEWS: CORRECTIVE MOVES COMPLETE. BEARS CONTINUE TO REIGN?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Trading was mostly bearish yesterday after the pair made an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance. Price briefly climbed above 1.0945 but the bulls couldn’t sustain it.



Technical Outlook

The overbought condition of the Stochastic combined with the resistance at 1.0945 proved to be a good enough reason for price to fall but it must be noted that the support at 1.0870 is breached but not yet decisively. If today the sellers manage to keep price below this level, we anticipate a touch of 1.0800 but a quick bounce above the level might invalidate such a scenario and will make 1.0945 the new target.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases scheduled for the day ahead so the main focus will be on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bulls finally decided to step in and managed to take price above the immediate level of importance. However, the bears soon took over and at the time of writing the pair is trading below 1.4565.



Technical Outlook


The bullish move seen yesterday is considered just a correction and doesn’t signify an end of the downtrend. Furthermore, the last four hour candle has a long upper wick (shows rejection) and has descended below the previous support (1.4565), which is now resistance. The target for today is the previous low at 1.4495 but more upside movement is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and anticipated to increase 0.1% (previous change -0.4%). The manufacturing sector is of great importance to the British economy and this indicator shows changes in the overall value of the output of the said sector, so a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound.

At 3:00 pm GMT, NIESR will announce a Gross Domestic Product Estimate which usually has a mild impact on the Pound, with higher numbers triggering strength. The previous value was 0.6% so anything above that is considered bullish.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:41 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO STALLS, POUND WEAKENS SEVERELY. BOUNCES HIGHER EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar moved without clear direction all day yesterday and gravitated around 1.0870 level. The fundamental scene was rather calm, contributing to the pair’s lack of determination.



Technical Outlook

The pair is in a ranging state but it is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.0870. This makes us favour the short side for a drop into 1.0800 support but a bounce above 1.0870 would invalidate such a scenario, making 1.0945 the first target. The overall picture is not much changed compared to yesterday but the oscillators are moving downwards and this increases the chances of an extended fall.

Fundamental Outlook


We have another slow day ahead, with the only notable release being the Eurozone Industrial Production. The indicator is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and shows changes in the value of output generated by the industrial sector. Higher numbers than the anticipated -0.2% (previous 0.6%) are usually beneficial to the Euro; however, the indicator is known to have a mild impact on the market.


GBP/USD


The Pound extended losses on the back of a disappointing performance of the Manufacturing sector and reached levels that were last seen in 2010.



Technical Outlook


The first support is located at 1.4350, followed by the more important one at 1.4230 but both these levels were last visited in 2010 so their importance may have degraded during time. The Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold and the Stochastic is lagging behind price, that’s why it is not below its 20 level, so we can safely say that the pair is oversold and a retracement higher is long overdue. The first potential level of resistance is 1.4495 but the Pound is weak and further downside cannot be overruled.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic data for today so the pair’s direction will be dictated by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:33 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO MEETS RESISTANCE, POUND SHOWS MIXED REACTIONS AHEAD OF U.S. RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by a break of 1.0870 followed by a bullish move into the resistance at 1.0945. The pair is now capped by resistance and shows rejection.



Technical Outlook

The touch of 1.0945 zone resulted in a quick move lower which shows rejection but also that the bulls are not yet ready to break this level. Nonetheless, the latest impulse is bullish and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.0870 which is now support. The Stochastic is wide open, heading upwards and showing good momentum but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t have a clear direction so the oscillators paint a mixed picture. A lot of today’s movement will depend on the fundamental scene but if price descends below 1.0870, we expect it to touch 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar has a busy day today, with the first major release being the U.S. Retail Sales scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. Sales made at retail levels represent a big part of overall economic activity and usually an increase in such sales strengthens the greenback. Today’s forecast is a change of -0.1% compared to the previous 0.2%.

At 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is considered high-impact because consumer confidence leads consumer spending. Higher numbers than the anticipated 92.7 usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged and the MPC members didn’t change their stance regarding a hike but the event created volatility nonetheless. However the pair didn’t make substantial advances to either side.



Technical Outlook


The main trend is without a doubt bearish but we are likely to see the start of a consolidation phase between 1.4350 and 1.4475. A break of either of these levels would mean that the ranging period is over and that more directional movement will follow. The oscillators still favour a stronger move to the upside, possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average be we don’t anticipate such a strong move to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook


The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important indicators for today so all eyes will be focused on the United States for the releases we’ve mentioned earlier.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:02 pm
FOREX NEWS: MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY – U.S. BANKS CLOSED AND IRREGULAR VOLATILITY PRESENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the CORE version of the U.S. Retail Sales indicator showed a worse than expected value, weakening the greenback and allowing the pair to climb. However the Euro lacks strength and the bullish move stopped at resistance.



Technical Outlook


Although 1.0945 was broken, the pair stopped and reversed once 1.0980 was touched and now it is trading once again below resistance. Lately price action is choppy and all moves are quickly exhausted so today we expect a descent into 1.0870. As an alternate scenario, we might see another climb but we don’t expect 1.0980 to be broken decisively. The oscillators show mixed signals and don’t hold enough information, thus contributing to the fogginess of the overall picture.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrate Martin Luther King Day so banks are closed and no indicators are released. Europe didn’t schedule any economic data releases either so we expect a day with potentially low volatility.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued its descent, approaching the near 6-year low at 1.4229 although the U.S. Retail Sales somewhat disappointed. This further shows that the Pound is weak and that more downside action will follow.



Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching a very important level, where price bounced higher in 2010 and the strength of this level combined with the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index suggests that a move up is next. The first target is the potential resistance located at 1.4350 but keep in mind the overall trend is bearish and a break of 1.4230 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook


Similar to the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic indicators for today, so the pair’s direction will be influenced by the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:33 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO STUCK IN A RANGE, POUND VOLATILITY BOOSTED BY BRITISH INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was slow, as anticipated and most of this behaviour was generated by the fact that U.S. banks were closed, celebrating Martin Luther King Day. Europe didn’t release any major indicators, further contributing to the lack of volatility.



Technical Outlook


Price is sliding towards 1.0870 and has touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is angled slightly to the upside. This is a good place for price to bounce higher but the lack of clear movement makes it hard to anticipate the next direction. Nonetheless, a break of the 50 EMA and of 1.0870 would open the door for a touch of 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook


The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released today at 10:00 am GMT and expected to drop to 8.2 from the previous 16.1. The survey expresses the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors about a 6-month outlook and usually creates decent volatility, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Euro.

At the same time the Final CPI of the Eurozone comes out, showing the state of inflation in the Euro area. The Final version is the least important but even so, higher values than the forecast 0.2% can bring Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound edged higher against the American Dollar yesterday but the climb was not substantial and first potential resistance was not touched.



Technical Outlook

The downtrend is still in full swing and most of yesterday’s movement was just a normal reaction based on low volatility. However, the pair is still oversold and we anticipate more upside action soon, probably until 1.4350 is touched, but a lot will depend on today’s inflation data released by the United Kingdom. The oscillators are close to their respective oversold levels, suggesting that a move up is next but they have been so for a long while.

Fundamental Outlook


At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to show a change of 0.1%, same as previous. This is the main gauge of inflation and is currently considered too low so any climb is viewed as beneficial for the Pound. Usually the release creates decent volatility, especially if the actual number differs from forecast so caution is recommended.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:45 pm
FOREX NEWS: POUND FALLS TO LEVELS LAST SEEN IN 2009 AHEAD OF WEF ANNUAL MEETINGS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair had another choppy trading session yesterday and slowly approached 1.0870 where it bounced slightly higher. The German ZEW survey exceeded analysts’ expectations by a small margin and the release didn’t create strong movement.



Technical Outlook


The pair is still ruled by indecision and doesn’t pick a clear direction. The levels to watch are 1.0800 as support and 1.0945 as resistance but a technical prediction can be made only when 1.0870 is broken and re-tested. The oscillators offer mixed signals and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, further increasing the uncertainty. As long as price stays above 1.0870 the outlook is slightly bullish for a touch of 1.0945.

Fundamental Outlook


The United States CPI comes out at 1:30 pm GMT but is not expected to show any change from the previous 0.0%. Because this is the main gauge of inflation, higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower. Today the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meetings start in Davos and will last the whole week so volatility is likely to increase.


GBP/USD

Although the British CPI was better than expected, the Pound dropped yesterday to levels last seen in 2009. The release just created brief moments of strength before the pair broke key support.



Technical Outlook


The break of 1.4230 shows that the downtrend is in full swing and that it is likely to continue, with the first target located at 1.4050. However, this is a very old level and we don’t know how price will react to it (although the last 2 levels were old as well and price bounced briefly); before 1.4050 is reached, we expect the pair to climb into 1.4230 for a re-test from below and a much needed retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released at 9:30 am GMT with a forecast of 4.1K (previous 3.9K). The indicator shows the changes in the number of people who applied for unemployment related benefits and usually a higher number is detrimental for the Pound. Keep in mind that the WEF Meetings can have an impact on the pair’s movement.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:58 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO’S FATE RESTS ON DRAGHI’S SHOULDERS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair tested resistance yesterday but bounced lower despite a worse than expected value of the American Consumer Price Index. This just goes to show that the US Dollar is starting to gain momentum against the Euro.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0945 was surpassed yesterday and price came in close vicinity of 1.0980 but bounced lower. If the uptrend line seen on the chart above and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average are clearly broken, we expect the pair to move below 1.0870 and closer to 1.0800. As an alternate scenario, a bounce at the trend line would suggest another encounter with resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.05% but the likelihood of strong movement is high nonetheless. At 1:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference, explaining the reasons behind the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions. This event will probably create the biggest volatility of the day but the direction will depend on Draghi’s attitude and answers.


GBP/USD

The British unemployment numbers showed yesterday that less people applied for social help and the pair slightly retraced higher. However, this can also be attributed to the recent strong drop that was in need of a rebound.



Technical Outlook

The bearish trend found short term support at 1.4125 and we expect the pair to move higher, possibly into 1.4230. If this potential resistance will not stop the climb, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next turning point where downwards movement may resume. The oscillators are starting to move above their respective oversold levels and this increases the chances of a deeper retracement to the north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mainly dependant on the technical aspect.
GDMFX
Number of messages : 212
Points : 1033
Date of Entry : 2015-08-25
Year : 27

Re: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

on Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:04 pm
FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS SUPPORT, POUND AFFECTED BY RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected the European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that low inflation is still a risk and that monetary policy may be adjusted during the March meeting. The Euro reacted quickly to the comments and the pair tumbled below 1.0800.



Technical Outlook

The pair breached 1.0800 but at the time of writing is bouncing higher. However, we expect another attempt to move below the mentioned level and probably a break based on the dovish stance adopted by ECB President Mario Draghi. A move below 1.0800 would make 1.0710 the first target while a bounce would suggest the pair is headed towards 1.0870 again. However, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major events, with the most notable one being the release of the German Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers and usually it has a strong impact only if the actual numbers differ a lot from the analysts’ forecast which for today’s release is 53.0. Lower numbers negatively affect the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by major news yesterday but breached short term support, only to return above it later in the day.



Technical Outlook

The fact that price moved below short term support but failed to continue suggests that the strength of the bears is starting to fade away and that we might see a move closer to 1.4230 today. The oscillators are long oversold, thus supporting such a higher move but keep in mind we are still in a strong downtrend and the possibility of a move into 1.4050 shouldn’t be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out today at 9:30 am GMT and this might be the deciding factor for today’s direction. The anticipated change is -0.1% while the previous was 1.7% and usually a higher than expected number is beneficial for the currency, generating a move up.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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