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LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:36 pm
NQ: general analysis

Current trend

In the opening trading session the US indices restores the losses: after reaching the minimum at the level of 5314.3 Nasdaq was corrected and now is trading at the level of 5332.1. The next target is at the 3/8 Murray or 5341.9.

The lowering was due to the cancelling of the health care reformation voting in the USA Congress. The Republicans didn’t come to the agreement upon the necessity of the reformation and postponed the voting for the indefinite period. A lot of investors were disappointed and began to doubt if Trump can provide the actions that he promised during the Evections and get the support of the Congress. On the other hand the USA can partially benefit from the lowering of the USD, as the US goods will become more competitive in the worlds markets, which is quite difficult to imply due to the tightening of the monetary policy.
This week the USA GDP data, which is to be published on Thursday, are worth traders’ attention. The index is expected to be 2%.
On the technical picture the Stochastic is above the level of 20 and reflects the growth of the index.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 5341.9.
Support levels: 5314.3.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with stop loss at 5314.3 and the target at 5341.9.

LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:43 pm
SPX: Fibonacci analysis

The new lowering to the levels of the March minima is possible.

On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of the minima of the last two months and tried to be corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (2342.5). The further movement is unlikely, as the pair should pass the downward fan. The key “bullish” level is at 2350.0 (correction 38.2%), in case of the breakout here the price can grow to the level of 2359.5 (correction 50.0%) and 2369.0 (correction 61.8%). The new lowering to the area of the levels of 2323.0 and 2319.5 (the March minima) seems more likely to develop. However in this case the price should be set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the level of 2338.5 (correction 23.6%). The Stochastic is reversing in the overbought area, which confirms the possibility of the lowering.

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%) and now is moving to the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (2365.5). The Stochastic has reversed upwards, which confirms the forecast. However the possibility of the lowering is not excluded, as the sequence confirms it. The first target of the movement will be the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%), which has been tested before.

Trading scenario

The short positions seems more preferable, but open ones if the price is set below the level of 2338.5 with the target at 2326.0, 2319.5. Stop loss is at 2343.0.

Alternative scenario

Open long positions if the price is set above the level of 2350.0 with the target at 2365.5, 2369.0 and stop loss at 2346.0.

LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:07 pm
NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI keeps showing a Bearish dynamics. The Composite, however, is growing and is about to test its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6992 (local lows), 0.6950 (July 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7072 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating in a sideways channel. Positions can be opened after a breakout of one of its borders.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6992 with targets at 0.6950, 0.6888 and stop-loss at 0.7020. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7072 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7048. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:42 am
AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last 3 day the AUD/USD pair is growing despite the strengthening of the USD due to the positive commentaries of the USA FRS members Janet Yellen, Steven Kaplan, John Williams and Charles Evans. In addition the USD was supported by the positive fundamental data: Pending Home Sales data (much better than expected) and the Consumer Confidence index (better than expected, renewal of the 5 year maximum). However the pair was supported by the RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech and the HIA New Home Sales data, so the AUD grew faster than the USD.

Today the USA Gross Domestic Product Annualized data (expected to be neutral), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (expected to be neutral) and the Initial Jobless Claims data (expected to be negative)
The pair is expected to grow further.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7740, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair at the current price with the target at 0.7740, 0.7780 and stop loss at 0.7580.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7600 with the target at 0.7540 and stop loss at 0.7650.

LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:22 am
XAG/USD: general review

Current trend

After active growth during the week silver was corrected yesterday. The price returned to the level of 18.10 that had been successfully broken through a day earlier. The fall happened in view of strengthening of US dollar supported by positive GDP data and statements of FOMC representatives John Williams and Robert Kaplan. It seems  that the negative correlation between US dollar and precious metals started to work again after not so logical dynamics that has been observed from the end of the previous week.

Today the market is waiting for important US releases, namely personal income and expenses data at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a negative outlook, PMI Business Activity Index Chicago at 15:30 (GMT+2) also with a negative forecast, and Consumer Confidence data by the University of Michigan at 16:00 (GMT+2) with a neutral outlook.
Silver is likely to be corrected on the last trading day of the week and month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.70, 17.05, 17.40, 17.75.
Resistance levels: 18.10, 18.45, 19.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at market price with targets at 17.75 and stop-loss at 18.40.
Alternatively, one may consider buying if the price consolidates above 18.10 with targets at 18.45 and stop-loss at 17.90.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:52 pm
NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling having failed its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its longer MA having failed its most recent resistance.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6965 (November 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows), 0.6875 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7073 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is testing its short-term descending trendline. There is a high chance of a fall continuation.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.6965, 0.6888, 0.6875 and stop-loss at 0.7017. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7073 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7042. Validity – 3-5 days.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:22 am
USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Last week the dynamics of the pair was mainly determined by US dollar. The growth of USD was influenced rather by the rhetorics of FOMC members than be actual fundamental values. As a result, the pair USD/JPY reached the zone of 112.00-112.10. However, it did not manage to break through this level and fell on Friday and Monday despite the growth of USD index. The strengthening of yen was caused by positive data of Japanese labour market and manufacturing industry published on Friday and Tankan Services PMI released yesterday.

No important releases from Japan are due today. US releases today include the data on trading balance at 14:30 (GMT+2) (a positive outlook with reduced deficiency) and manufacturing orders at 16:00 (GMT+2) (negative forecast), and at 22:30 (GMT+2) a statement by FOMC representative Daniel Tarullo.

Due to the absence of important publications from Japan and their small number from the USA, and also in view of the statement of Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda and publication of the minutes of a meeting of FOMC Open Markets Committee, the pair is likely to have steady dynamics within the range between 110.00-110.50 and 112.00.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.
Resistance levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price moves from the level of 110.60 with targets at 112.40 and stop-loss at 109.70.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 110.60 with targets at 109.25 and stop-loss at 111.40.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:52 am
USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

In the end of last week, the Canadian Dollar strengthened after a publication of strong data on the GDP for January in Canada that came out significantly better than the forecasts. In addition, oil prices growth that started last week also provides substantial support to the Canadian Dollar. Yesterday, after the publication of data on the Canadian Trade Balance that showed nearly one billion deficit instead of an anticipated surplus, the CAD despite the data strengthened. As the result, the pair fell to a strong support level – the lower border of the previous channel.
Today attention should be paid to data from the US on the ADP Employment Change (2:15 pm GMT+2), the ISM and Markit Services PMI’s (3:45 pm and 4:00 pm GMT+2) and to the FOMC Minutes (8:00 pm GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3280, 1.3350.
Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3540, 1.3600.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.3440, 1.3540 and stop-loss at 1.3350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3440 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3280 and stop-loss at 1.3530.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:45 am
GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

After the beginning of the Brexit procedure last week the pound, contrary to the opinions of analysts, showed positive dynamics. In the beginning of the current week in view of negative data from the UK (Construction and Manufacturing PMI) the pair dropped by almost 130 points. Yesterday Retail Prices Index and Services PMI in the UK appeared to be higher than forecast, and the pair grew and regained a number of positions lost in the beginning of the week, despite positive data on the unemployment rate from the USA.

No important releases from the UK are schedulled for today. Today the market is waiting for the following events from the USA: publication of Initial Jobless Claims in the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a positive outlook, statement by FOMC member John Williams at 15:30 (GMT+2), and a meeting between between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping scheduled for 17:00 (GMT+2). This is the first meeting between Trump and Chinese authorities that is likely to shape the policy of relations between two major world economies for the next several years. The expectations about this event are ambiguous, but its results will certainly influence the dynamics of instruments.  

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2510, 1.2570, 1.2700, 1.2770.
Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2340, 1.2250, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2340, 1.2250 and stop-loss at 1.2530.
Alternatively, one may consider opening buy positions from the level of 1.2430 with targets at 1.2510 and stop-loss at 1.2380.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Points : 1031
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13
Godina : 56

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:02 am
AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The fall of the Australian dollar that started last week was caused by important Australian economic indicators such as Manufacturing PMI and retail sales volume that appeared to be worse than forecast. On the other hand, the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at the moderation of AUD strengthening was confirmed by the Tuesday decision to keep the 1.5% interest rate unchanged. Australian trading balance released on the same day appeared to be with proficiency and above outlooks which is a result of weakening of the natonal currency. Last month the national trading balance demonstrated deficiency caused by the strengthening of AUD for almost two months.

A speech by deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle was also published yesterday. The main focus of the statement was on the reduction of the volume of foreign invesments in the industrial and national debt sectors. As a result, the pair AUD/USD continued to fall and reached the zone of 0.7530-0.7550.
No important releases from Australia are due today. Speaking about the USA, the market is waiting for the usual labour market release published in the first Friday of the month, namely on the changes in nonfarm payrolls at 14:30 (GMT+2) with negative outlook, as well as for the weekly report by Baker Hughes on active oil platforms in the USA at 20:00 (GMT+2) with positive forecast. Moreover for the last two days investors have been paying attention to the results of the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping.  

Support and resistance

The correction of the pair is the most likely scenario for today.  
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7420, 0.7310.  
Resistance levels: 0.7540, 0.7600, 0.7660, 0.7740.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7470.
Alternatively, short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7540 with targets at 0.7420 and stop-loss at 0.7640.
LiteForexTeam
Broj poruka : 349
Points : 1031
Date of Entry : 2015-11-13
Godina : 56

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:26 pm
DAX: Fibonacci analysis

On H4 chart the price is at the level of aggregation of Fibonacci corrections (38.2% and 23.6%) and is testing the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 12195.5. If it is broken down, the growth may continue to the marks of 12258.0 (correction 23.6%) and 12360.0 (year maximums). To continue the fall the pair has to break through the aggregation of corrections at the level of 12172.0 and lower Boillinger Band. In this case the fall may continue to the aggregation of corrections (61.8% and 38.2%) 12040.5 and 11975.0 (correction 76.4%).

On D1 chart the price is being corrected from year maximums but fails to break down through the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 12130.0. If the price consolidates below it, it may continue the decrease to the level of 11820.0 (correction 23,6%). Otherwise the price may reverse and update year maximums at 12314.0. Generally, growth seems possible in the short terms, as Stochastic is turned upwards.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 12195.5 with targets at 12258.0, 12360.0 and stop-loss at 12159.0.

Alternative scenario


Sell positions may be opened from the level of 12115.0 with targets at 12040.5, 11975.0 and stop-loss at 12143.0.
MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:57 pm
LiteForex XAU/USD: gold is updating record-setting maximums

Current trend

Gold prices have updated 1-year record-setting maximums after the release of disappointing data on the dynamics of jobless claims in the USA and after ECB kept the interest rate on the previous level.
A report published yesterday showed the growth of initial jobless claims from 235K to 298K, while the analysts expected them to grow only to 241K. The number of repeated claims reduced more than expected: from 1.945 mln to 1.940 mln against the outlook of growth to 1.950 mln.
ECB press conference was neutral. The head of the regulator Mario Draghi pointed out that economic growth forecasts in the region remained unchanged and inflation expectations had not changed as well. 


Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate stable increase. The price range is actively widening. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reached maximum values and reversed horizontally. 
Resistance levels: 1355.48, 1366.99, 1374.93.
Support levels: 1350.00, 1343.98, 1330.60, 1325.65.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1355.48 with target at 1374.93 and stop-loss at 1340.00. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the levels of 1350.00, 1343.98 with targets at 1316.03 and stop-loss at 1365.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:49 am
LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Last Friday the price of Brent oil reduced after the announcement of intermediary results of assessment of the damage caused by Harvey storm. The launch of operation of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico reduced the investors' concerns about a serious crisis in the US oil industry. The market reacted to this news by fixing profits in long positions which put additional pressure on the trading instrument. Moreover, according to EAI information, weekly reserves of crude oil in the USA increased by 4.6 mln barrels. At the same time gas prices have dropped, as the majority of the Americans decided to limit the use of personal cars due to Irma storm. 

No important macroeconomic data able to have considerably impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument are due today. Tomorrow attention should be paid to the release of the API report on oil stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is trading in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed to the side, and the price range is widening, indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the signal for the opening of long positions. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and formed a strong sell signal.

Support levels: 50.65, 51.65, 52.50, 53.40.
Resistance levels: 54.40, 55.35, 56.30.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 54.80, 55.30 and stop-loss at 53.20. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 53.35 with targets at 52.45 and stop-loss at 53.60. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.


MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:00 pm
LiteForex USD/JPY: calmness in North Korea caused the growth of the pair

Current trend 

The pair started the week with considerable growth connected with the release of tension in the Korean Peninsula. 

Investors waited for new missile tests on September 9, but Pyohgyang refused from provocative actions. On the other hand, on Monday the UN Security Council imposed a number of new sanctions on North Korea except for the most notable embargo on oil supply. This was also considered a positive action by the market. As a result, risk appetites returned to the market and by now let the pair reach the level of 109.70. Recent data on machine building orders (the volume of which reduced by 7.5% YoY in July) also put pressure on yen.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has increased above the gathering of Fibo correction at 109.00 and is aiming at 110.00 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level [6/8]) to the area of the upper border of the downward channel. Breaking through this level will open a way for growth to 110.85 (Fibo correction 50.0%, Murrey level [8/8]). In case of reversal of the price around the level of 110.00 possible targets of the "bears" will be the levels of 109.00 (gathering of Fibo corrections), 108.60 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [2/8]) and 107.80 (Murrey level [0/8]). Technical indicators generally show growth but do not exclude the beginning of correction. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought area but may leave it forming a sell signal.

Support levels: 109.00, 108.60, 108.20, 107.80.
Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.55, 110.85.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 110.00, 110.55, 110.85 and stop-loss at 109.40. 
Short positions should be opened below the level of 109.00 or in case of reversal near 110.00 with targets at 108.60, 108.20, 107.80 and stop-loss at 109.40 and 110.40.

MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:26 am
LiteForex XAG/USD: silver dynamics is mixed

Current trend

During trading session on Tuesday, September, 12, silver prices insignificantly grew and stepped off the local minimum since the beginning of the month. The instrument is trying to enter the upward correction after downward gap opening on Monday due to the fall of the market demand on shelter assets after DPRK refused to test missiles last weekend, which helped to release the tense upon the North Korea situation.
On Wednesday, September, 13, the investors are waiting for Producer Price Index publication at 14:30 (GMT+2) in the USA. The MoM value is expected to grow by 0.3% MoM after the fall by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In addition, the Monthly Budget Statement will be published at 20:00 (GMT+2) in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are steady growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of the controversial trade dynamic this week. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping weakening sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to wait until the signal is clear, as current readings are uninformative.

Stochastic has reached the border of the oversold area and reversed into flat, reacting to the attempt of correctional growth in the beginning of the week. It’s better to wait until the situation is clear and the indicator reverses fully.
Resistance levels: 17.87, 18.00, 18.17.
Support levels: 17.66, 17.53, 17.38, 17.27, 17.16.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels of 17.87 or 18.00. Take profit is 18.20–18.30. Stop loss is 17.80–17.70. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The alternative is the return of strong “bearish” trend after the breakdown of the level of 17.66. In this case it’s better to open short positions with the target around 17.30. Stop loss is 17.90. Implementation period: 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:50 am
LiteForex XAU/USD: gold price is going down

Current trend

During the trading session on Wednesday, September, 13, gold prices significantly went down and renewed the lows since the beginning of the month due to the preliminary information that Trumps’ Administration is ready to make public the awaited tax reform. According to unconfirmed reports, the details of the new plan can be disclosed next week.
During the morning session in September, 14, the “bearish” moods prevail. The instrument is pressed by the poor Chinese macroeconomical statistics: Industrial Production in China slowed from +6.4% YoY to +6.0% YoY in August, while the analysts expected the fastening to +6.6% YoY. The growth of Retail Sales fell from +10.4% YoY to +10.1% YoY, which is also worse than expected value of +10.5% YoY.
On Thursday the investors are waiting for the August consumer inflation data in the USA. The traders hope that the statistics will clear the perspectives of further monetary policy tightening.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current short positions, but wait to the clear signals to appear before opening new ones.
Stochastic has reached the limit in the oversold area and reversed into flat. The readings of the indicators reflect the correctional growth appearance in the end of the week. It’s better to close profitable short positions.
Resistance levels: 1325.65, 1334.32, 1343.98, 1350.00, 1357.15.
Support levels: 1316.03, 1307.75, 1300.44, 1291.71.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal around 1316.03. Take profit is 1334.32 or 1343.98. Stop loss is 1312.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Steady breakdown 1316.03 can be a signal to open short positions with the target around 1300.00. Stop loss is 1328.50. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:13 am
LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

Australian dollar moderately grew against USD as a result of trading on Thursday, September 14, moving away from local minimums since September 5. The reason for the growth of AUD was positive data on the Australian labor market in August. The level of employment in August grew by 54.2K workplaces against 29.2K last month. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 15.0K.

More serious growth was prevented by quite stable US currency that receive support from strong consumer inflation data on Thursday. In August CPI grew by 1.9% YoY after growth by 1.7% in July. Experts expected growth to make up 1.8% YoY.

On Friday, September 15, investors expected the release of the data on retail sales and industrial output in the USA at 14:30 and 15:00 (GMT+2) respectively. If this block of data also appears to be better than expected, USD may finish the week with growth.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic has approached the border of the oversold area and reversed horizontally reacting to growth attempts on Thursday. 
Resistance levels: 0.7994, 0.8015, 0.8042, 0.8064, 0.8080.
Support levels: 0.7978, 0.7954, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.8015 with target at 0.8080, 0.8100 and stop-loss at 0.7970. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
A breakdown of the level of 0.7978 or 0.7954 may be a signal for further sales with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.8020. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:24 pm
LiteForex EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday after the release of negative data on retail sales (-0.2%) and industrial output volume (-0.9%) in the USA the price of the pair rose to 1.1985 but then was corrected and is currently trading near the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1940. Currently investors are cautious waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Therefore the pair may remain within the range of 1.1920-1.1980 in the near future.

In view of the upcoming meeting of the Fed European statistics is considered less important. Here attention should be paid to the release of final August inflation data from Eurozone. The values of CPI and its basic variant are still far from target levels and make up 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Business sentiment index by ZEW is due tomorrow. The indicator may grow from 10,0 to 12.5 points for Germany and from 29.3 to 32.4 points for Eurozone. In this case the price will continue to grow to the upper border of the range.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has tested the middle line of Bollinger Bands around the level of 1.1920 and may soon reach 1.1980. However, serious growth to the levels of 1.2025 and 1.2090 may happen only after the price consolidates above 1.1980. Breaking down the level of 1.1920 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) will open the way for further decrease to the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1855 and further to 1.1800. Technical indicators show growth: MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and to form a buy signal, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1855, 1.1800.
Resistance levels: 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2090.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1980, 1.2025 and stop-loss at 1.1920.1.1920. 
Short position may be opened in case the price reverses around the level of 1.1980 or breaks down the level of 1.1920 with target at 1.1855 and stop-losses at 1.2010 and 1.1950.


MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:52 am
LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

As a result of trading during the previous week the price of Brent oil grew approaching maximums of April 2016. US refineries resume operations after Harvey and Irma storms. Moreover, investors became optimistic after the news about the reduction of drilling activity in the USA. Also Brent continues to receive support from IEA that increased the outlook of global demand for 2017 from 1.5 to 1.6 mln barrels a day.

The trading instrument shows mixed dynamics formed in view of expected Fed's decision on the key interest rate. The demand for high-risk assets dropped. Along with this, according to an OPEC report, the oversupply of oil in the world market is reducing, and soon the cartel and other member states will discuss the extension of the global oil pact. 

A key event of the week will be the announcement of the Fed's decision on the monetary policy on Wednesday. Today attention should be paid to API report on the level of oil and petrochemicals stocks in the USA. 

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range has widened indicating the preservation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area.

Support levels: 55.00, 54.30, 53.55, 52.80.
Resistance levels: 55.75, 56.10, 56.65, 57.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with target at 56.30 and stop-loss at 54.80. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 54.75 with target at 53.95 and stop-loss at 55.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:12 am
LiteForex USD/CHF: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

US dollar showed unstable growth against Swiss franc during trading on Tuesday, September 19, having lost the majority of advantages by the closing of the daily session. The reason was the release of uncertain data in the dynamics of housing construction in the USA in August. In turn, franc positively reacted to the strengthening of the business sentiment index and current economic conditions assessment in Germany.

During the morning session on September 20 the pair is showing cautious dynamics connected with the release of final minutes of the Fed's meeting at 20:00 (GMT+2) and the beginning of a follow-up conference at 20:30 (GMT+2). Moreover, a quarterly report by the National Bank of Switzerland is to be released at 15:00 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD indicator is growing but is unable to consolidate above zero. 
Stochastic preserves stable downward direction. 

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9677, 0.9702, 0.9724.
Support levels: 0.9615, 0.9584, 0.9562, 0.9541.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9650 with targets at 0.9700, 0.9725 and stop-loss at 0.9610. The period of implementation is 2 days.
Short positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9584 with targets at 0.9520, 0.9500 and stop-loss at 0.9630. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:13 pm
LiteForex EUR/USD: the Fed's balance is reducing, but the interest rate has not changed

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair was rapidly corrected after the Fed decided to start the process of budget cutting in October. Currently the budget of the regulator makes up about $4.47 trln. The market positively reacted to this decision, and the pair dropped to 1.1860. However the tightening of USD may be temporary first of all due to small volumes of reduction. On the first stage of the program the balance is expected to be reduced by $10 bln a month, and the next year the sum will be increased to $20 bln.
However, the issue of interest rate increase was postponed as expected, and it remained on the previous level of 1.25%. According to the follow-up statement recent inflation increase was of temporary nature and had been caused by recent storms, but generally CPI would be below the target level for a long time. To confirm this, the Fed reduced its basic inflation forecast in the current year from 1.7% to 1.5%. 

Support and resistance

Technically the pair started upward correction the targets of which may be located at 1.1960 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [4/8]) and 1.2000 (Murrey level [5/8]). Otherwise the price may return to the level of September minimums at 1.1870 (Murrey level [1/8]) and drop below to 1.1840 (Murrey level [0/8]) and 1.1810 (Murrey level [-1/8]).
Support levels: 1.1870, 1.1840, 1.1810.
Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2025.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1960, 1.2000 and stop-loss at 1.1880. 
Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.1870 with targets at 11.1840, 1.1810 and stop-loss at 1.1900.

MikhailLF
Broj poruka : 11
Points : 26
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Lokacija : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Yesterday at 2:05 pm
LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: a week in the side corridor

Current trend

Oil quotes have been in the upward trend for about a month, but this week the price has entered the side corridor of 49.80-50.80. The restoration of the US oil industry after the storms and the growth of reserves (according to API ad EIA reports) put pressure on the prices. On the other hand, the quotes are supported by suggestions of some OPEC members regarding additional 1% cut of production in the framework of OPEC+ agreement, as well as the data on the fulfillment of the agreement in August by 116% against 94% in July.

Today the market is waiting for statements from the meeting of OPEC+ monitoring group. The main agenda item is expected to be the reduction of oil production in Libya and Nigeria. In the evening investors will be waiting for statistics on the number of oil rigs from Baker Hughes. For the last two weeks the indicator has been reducing (from 759 to 749) due to the Atlantic storms that hit Texas and Florida. The continuation of the trend may give considerable support to oil quotes.

Support and resistance

Technically the price has been trading within the corridor of 50.80 (Murrey level [+1/8]) – 49.80 (Fibo correction 61.8%, Murrey level [+1/8]) since the end of the previous week. Its consolidation above 50.80 will open the way for further growth to 56.60 (Fibo correction 74.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]). One may speak about decrease if the lower border of the range at 49.80 is broken down. In this case the price may be corrected to 49.20 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 48.45 (Murrey level [6/8]). Indicator show decrease: MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is directed downwards. However, fundamental factors (OPEC group meeting and the data by Baker Hughes) may give oil prices support therefore upward movement seems more likely.
Support levels: 49.80, 49.20, 48.45, 47.65.
Resistance levels: 50.80, 51.60, 52.00.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions should be opened above 50.80 with target at 51.60 and stop-loss at 50.40. 
Short positions should be opened below 49.80 with targets at 49.20, 48.45 and stop-loss at 50.20.

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