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MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:42 am
liteForex USD/JPY: the pair is strengthening

Current trend

US dollar showed stable growth during trading against Japanese yen on Wednesday, September 27, marking a new local maximum since July 14. By the end of the trading session yen managed to regain a number of its positions. However, during the morning session on September 28 it is giving in to USD again.

As before, USD is supported by the statement by the Fed's head Janet Yellen. She gave the investors hope for one more increase of the interest rate in 2017. Along with that, the traders failed to receive any detailed data on the future tax reform in the USA yesterday.

On Thursday, September 8, investors will focus their attention on the US statistics on the dynamics of GDP and personal income and expenses in Q2 2017. Interesting statistics from Japan will be released only during Friday Asian session. Namely, it will be releases on the labor market and consumer inflation in August.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate stable increase. The price range is actively narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows that the instrument is overbought.
Resistance levels: 113.24, 113.55, 114.00.
Support levels: 112.70, 112.36, 112.00, 111.64.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 113.24 with target at 114.00 and stop-loss at 112.70. The period of implementation is 2 days.
A reversal near 113.24 with further breakthrough of the level of 112.70 will be a signal for the opening of corrective sales with target at 111.50 and stop-loss at 113.50. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:09 pm
liteForex GBP/USD: a change in trading tendencies

Current trend

Like the most of the majors, the pound changed its direction after rapid growth in the beginning of September and is forming a downward trend. 

In the end of September the pair made several attempts to break through the level of 1.3615 after which it dropped down. The reason for the fall was recent comments of the Fed's head about further tightening of the monetary policy and optimistic prospects of the US economy growth in the medium term. In view of this the oversold USD received considerable investor support, and the pound on the contrary was subject to sales. During the recent week and a half the pair is trading within a narrow downward channel breaking through key support levels of 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3380. USD gained additional support from strong labor market data and increased US economic growth. 
Today special attention should be paid to the data on personal expenditure and consumer sentiment index in the USA.

Support and resistance

In the medium term the pair is likely to preserve the downward tendency. In the short term the pair has targets 1.3270, 1.3200. In fact, the pair remains in the long-term upward trend and has moved to the correction stage that may continue to the lower border of the channel at 1.3125. Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: MACD indicates the growth in the volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands in the H4 chart have reversed and are directed downwards.

Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3270, 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.2930.
Resistance levels: 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3515, 1.3615, 1.3690.

Trading tips

In this situation short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3200, 1.3125. Stop-loss should be placed at the level of 1.3430.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:02 am
liteForex XAG/USD: silver prices returned to growth

Current trend

Silver prices updated local minimums since the beginning of August during trading last Friday, October 6, reacting to the release of a mixed report on the US labor market. Despite considerable reduction of the level of unemployment, the report was generally positive, confirming previous outlooks for the growth of the Fed's interest rates. However, the instrument failed to consolidate on new minimums, and by the moment of closing of the daily session the pair moved to the green zone with a considerable “bullish” advantage.
This dynamics was partially explained by the news about North Korea preparing a launch of a new ballistic missile able to reach the western coast of the USA. Moreover, the instrument was supported by technical factors of correction before the weekend.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart demonstrate horizontal reversal. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a strong buy signal (MACD histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, quickly approaching maximum values.
Resistance levels: 17.00, 17.20, 17.35, 17.53.
Support levels: 16.87, 16.72, 16.63, 16.50, 16.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the level of 17.00 with targets at  17.25, 17.35 and stop-loss at 16.80. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 16.87 may be a signal for corrective sales with targets at  16.63 or 16.50 and stop-loss at 17.05. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:11 am
liteForex USD/JPY: the pair is trading within the narrow range

Current trend

US dollar slightly grew against the Japanese yen as a result of trading on Monday, October 9, although “bearish” tendencies dominated through the day. This uncertain dynamics of trading was explained by holidays both in the USA and Japan.
During the morning session on October 10 the pair is trading in the flat and investors wait for new market drivers. Yen receives moderate support  from the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, as well as the release of the balance of external trades. In August the indicator dropped from 566.6 bln to 318.7 bln yen which was better than expected by analysts (264.9 bln yen).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains fixed. MACD indicator is reducing preserving a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics quickly dropping to its minimal values. 
Resistance levels: 112.81, 113.24, 113.55, 114.00.
Support levels: 112.19, 111.64, 111.27, 111.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 113.24 with targets at 114.00, 114.30 and stop-loss 112.70. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down levels 112.19, 112.00 may be a signal for the return to sales with target at 111.00 and stop-loss at 112.50, 112.60. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.



Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/
MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:33 pm
liteForex USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure

Current trend

During the trading session on Tuesday, October, 10, the US dollar is strongly going down against Swiss franc and stepped away from the local highs, renewed in the end of the last week. The instrument is falling due to the weak positions of the US currency against the decrease of the US bonds’ yield and anticipation of publication of FOMC Minutes on October, 11. In addition, the traders reacted negatively to the news that Trump’s Administration postponed the implementation of the tax reformation, which had been announced recently.
On the other hand, franc is supported by the strong employment market data publications: the unemployment level in Switzerland decreased from 3.2% to 3.1% in September, which was better than the analysts expected.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately growing. The price range is insignificantly narrowing, reflecting the flat trading mood of the recent days. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep opened short positions in the short term, but not to open new ones before additional signals appear.
Stochastic is going down, being in the center of its working area. The indicator’s readings don’t contradict with the development of the “bearish” dynamics in the short or very short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9767, 0.9800, 0.9834.
Support levels: 0.9732, 0.9707, 0.9677, 0.9650.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9800. Take profit is 0.9850–0.9880. Stop loss is 0.9760. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
The alternative is the return of the strong “bearish” trend with the breakdown of the level of 0.9732. The targets will be at the levels of 0.9677 or 0.9650. Stop loss is 0.9767. Implementation period: 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:10 am
liteForex GBP/USD: pound is growing

Current trend

British currency is moderately growing against the US dollar, renewing the weekly highs due to the increasing pressure on USD. The negative dynamics was supported by FOMC Minutes publication, which decreased the market’s belief in the interest rate rise in the end of 2017.
After the report publication the investors focused on Friday’s US September consumer inflation data. In addition, after the key releases publication, the some Fed’s officials will present their renewed forecasts of the regulators’’ monetary policy development.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately falling. The price range is narrowing actively, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. The breakout of the resistance levels around the middle line of the instrument can be significant.
MACD has reversed into growing, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s better to keep current opened long positions and open new ones in the short or very short term.

Stochastic is moving upwards, but is reaching its highs, which reflects that the instrument is overbought in the short term, and the flay dynamics can appear in the end of the week.

Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3400, 1.3454.
Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3110, 1.3042.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3290 with the targets at 1.3400–1.3450. Stop loss is 1.3218. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
If the instrument meet a significant resistance around the levels of 1.3290–1.3300, in the end of the week the correctional fall can develop with the rebound to the level of 1.3300. Take profit is 1.3100. Stop loss is 1.3350. Implementation period: 2 days.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:39 am
liteForex EUR/USD: mixed dynamics in the end of the week

Current trend

During the trading session on Thursday, October, 12, European currency fell against the US dollar, stepping back from the maximum of September, 25. The downward trend is due to the positive US Initial Jobless Claims data and Producer Price Index, which let the investors hope that Friday’s Consumer Price Index will be strong.
On October, 6, the Initial Jobless Claims indicator fell 258K to 243K, while the analysts expected the value of 251K. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September, which exceeds the analysts’ expectations of +0.2% MoM and +2.0% YoY.

On Friday, October, at 14:30 (GMT+2) the block of key September statistic of retail sales and consumer inflation will be published in the USA. After FOMC Minutes, published this week earlier, the investors are focused on the price dynamics, as it can affect Fed’s decision upon the interest rate rise.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands’ dynamics is flat. The price range is not widening, being quite narrow for the current volatility level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.

MACD is growing, keeping quite strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line) and trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s possible to keep some of the current long positions in the short term, but not to open new ones.

Stochastic has crossed the level of 80 and reversed into flat, reacting to the “bearish” dynamics on Thursday, October, 12. The indicator reflects that the correctional fall is possible in the short term.
Resistance levels: 1.1860, 1.1878, 1.1909, 1.1950.
Support levels: 1.1820, 1.1800, 1.1755, 1.1730.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1860–1.1878 with the target at 1.1950. Stop loss is 1.1820–1.1830. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
The correctional dynamics development and the breakdown of the levels 1.1820–1.1800 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1850. Implementation period: 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:30 am
liteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in different directions

Current trend

Last Friday the pair’s dynamics was controversial after the US consumer inflation and retail sales data publications, and now the US dollar is growing insignificantly against Canadian currency.
The Friday’s US data weren’t’ disappointing, but the investors are lesser and lesser believing in another Fed’s interest rate rise this year. However, after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index publication part of the optimistic moods restored. In October the index grew to the record level of 101.1 points from 95.1 points in September, while analysts expected the growth to 95.0 points. 
During the morning session on October, 16, the pair is in correction, waiting for new signals. In particular, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range has narrowed to the minimum, reflecting the controversial trading dynamics of the recent days. It’s better to wait until new trading signal appear.
MACD is decreasing, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Taking into the consideration the recent flat dynamics, the signal is not worth believing, but the current short positions in the short term can be kept for some time.
Stochastic is reversing upwards near the level of 20, which is conditional border of the oversold area. The indicator’s readings reflect the possibility of correctional growth development in the short or very short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597.
Support levels: 1.2447, 1.2414, 1.2300, 1.2238.

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of the levels of 1.2500 or 1.2537 with the targets at 1.2600–1.2650. Stop loss is 1.2450–1.2470. Implementation period: 2 days.
The reversal near the current levels and the breakdown of the levels 1.2447 or 1.2414 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2300. Stop loss is not further than 1.2500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:46 am
liteForex GBP/USD: the pound is under pressure

Current trend

The British currency showed a fall against US dollar as a result of trading on Monday, October 16, moving away from local maximums updated last Friday. The reason for negative dynamics were new concerns about Brexit negotiations. Its participants failed to reach visible results despite 5 rounds of talks.
Moreover, the pound was under pressure from expectations about the release of the data on consumer inflation from the UK and Eurozone on Tueday. The block of British statistics is due at 10:30 (GMT+2), while European data will become available at 12:00 (GMT+2). Annual consumer prices growth rate in the UK is expected to reach 3.0% in September. MoM current growth rate is likely to considerably slow down from +0.6% to +0.3%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart are developing downward dynamics gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is growing, preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum values.
Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3336, 1.3400, 1.3454.
Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3118, 1.3025.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the levels of  1.3290, 1.3300 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3240. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
The development of corrective dynamics with a breakdown of the level of  1.3218 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3118, 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3270. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:47 pm
liteForex EUR/USD: trend break or the end of correction

Current trend

Euro continues to decrease against USD in view of growing demand for the latter. The dollar received considerable support in view of positive comments by the Fed's representatives and the head. They all view the prospects of US economy development as promising and expect to keep the targets of further monetary policy tightening.

Moreover, the demand for USD continued to grow due to the beneficial fundamental background. During recent two trading weeks strong data on the labor market, retail sales, and main indexes were released. All these factors had a considerable impact on the rate of EUR/USD which has dropped by almost 150 points since October 12. Today the downward impulse got stronger, and the pair tested the local minimum of 1.1730 once again but failed to break through it.
An additional catalyst for the fall of the European currency was the comments by Mario Draghi. He pointed out that to restore the Eurozone economy still needed considerable fiscal stimulation.


Support and resistance

European currency against USD remains in the long-term upward tendency, therefore it is too early to speak about the break of the trend. From the current level the pair may grow to the levels of 1.1785, 1.1800. In case they are broken through, the pair may return to the local maximum of October at 1.1880. An alternative scenario will be breaking through the level of 1.1730 and dropping to 1.1600, 1.1575.
Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925.


Trading tips

In this situation it is reasonable to open long positions with target at 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1700. At the same time, one may open short positions below the level of 1.1715 with target at 1.1600. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:29 am
liteForex AUD/USD: the pair is trading in both directions

Current trend

Australian dollar showed growth during the morning session on October 19, having received support from optimistic macroeconomic releases from Australia. Along with that, after the release of the data from China investors corrected a number of positions, and the instrument lost almost all of its “bullish” advantages.

The level of unemployment in Australia in September dropped from 5.6% to 5.5% which was a pleasant surprise as investors did not wait for any changes at all. At the same time the level of employment in September grew by 19.8K after growth by 50.0K last month. Analysts expected employment to increase by 15.0K workplaces.

The data from China showed an expected slowdown in the growth of GDP in YoY terms. In Q3 2017 GDP grew by 6.8% after increase by 6.9% in the previous period. QoQ the growth of the Chinese economy remained on the same level of +1.7%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is slightly widening from above. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows almost no reaction to the instrument's growth attempts this week and preserves a quite stable downward direction.

Resistance levels: 0.7873, 0.7900, 0.7937, 0.7978.
Support levels: 0.7832, 0.7807, 0.7769, 0.7731.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking out the levels of 0.7873 or 0.7900 with targets at 0.7978, 0.8000 and stop-loss at 0.7832, 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Breaking down the level of 0.7807 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 0.7731, 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:43 am
liteForex XAU/USD: gold is growing

Current trend

The price of gold grew considerably yesterday breaking three “bearish” sessions in a row and moving away from local minimums since October 9. The reason for the occurrence of “bullish” dynamics was the growth of corrective tendencies in the market that made the investors escape risks. Besides geopolitical risks, investors paid attention to the end of rally in the world stock markets that moved away from record-setting maximums.

USD, in turn, remained under the pressure of uncertainty around the Fed, but received support after the Senate approved of the draft budget for 2018 giving Trump administration an ability to pass the tax reform.

During the morning session on October 20 the pair is showing active “bearish” dynamics and USD is waiting for the release of the data on sales in the secondary housing market and the speech by the FOMC member Loretta Mester at 20:00 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing from below. MACD indicator is showing uncertain dynamics near the zero mark. Stochastic has reversed horizontally near the level of 20.

Resistance levels: 1290.67, 1298.33, 1305.65.
Support levels: 1281.85, 1276.26, 1266.01, 1260.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 1290.67 with target at 1305.65 and stop-loss at 1284.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

A breakdown of the level of 1276.26 may be a signal for resuming sales in the short term with target at 1266.01 and stop-loss at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:19 pm
liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain

Current trend

Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.

Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the  Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example,  Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.

Support and resistance

Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.
Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:02 pm
liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

Current trend

The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

Trading tips

It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35. 

The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:32 pm
liteForex FDAX: Murrey analysis

Current trend

In the D1 chart the price consolidated around 12968.8 ([7/8]). Investors are waiting for the results of tomorrow's ECB meeting. 
In case the level of 13125.0 (main resistance [8/8]) which is key for the “bulls” is broken through, the price may rise to 13281.3 ([+1/8]) and 13437.5 ([+2/8]). Otherwise the price may experience serious correction to the levels of 12812.5 ([6/8]) and 12500.0 ([4/8]). In the medium term the growth of the price is possible (which is confirmed by the reversal of Stochastic upwards), but it should be considered with caution. The level of 13125.0 represents serious resistance. Moreover, the price is around year maximums which may lead to correction.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 12968.8 ([7/8] stop, reversal), 12812.5 ([6/8] rotation, reversal), 12656.3 ([5/8] upper part of the channel), 12500.0 ([4/8] resistance, support).

Resistance levels: 13125.0 ([8/8] main resistance), 13281.3 ([+1/8] extreme resistance), 13437.5 ([+2/8] final resistance).

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 12968.8 with targets at 12812.5, 12500.0 and stop-loss at 13080.0. 
Long positions may be opened only after the price consolidates above 13125.0 with targets at 13281.3, 13437.5 and stop-loss at 13000.0.


MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:35 pm
liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

Current trend

Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275. 

The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

Support and resistance

Currently the price has been corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the level of 1.3200 and may further move to the waiting mode until the data on the US GDP in Q3 2017 is released tomorrow. However, if the price consolidated below 1.3180 (Fibo correction 23.6%) it may continue to decrease to 1.3110 (lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3030 (gathering of Fibo corrections). A key level for the “bulls” is tomorrow's maximums area at 1.3270 (Fibo correction 23.6%). In case it is broken out growth may resume to 1.3350 (Fibo correction 50.0%) and 1.3415 (Fibo correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3030.
Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3340, 1.3415.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230. 

The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:42 pm
liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175. 

This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase. 

The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

Support and resistance

Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible. 
Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180. 
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:40 pm
liteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for tomorrow’s PMI and Fed’s meeting

Current trend

Today the pair was slowly being corrected from the level of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]), euro is under pressure of poor inflation data. In October the preliminary Consumer Price Index decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and Core Index decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%. However, the correction is not strong due to the positive EU GDP data. In the third quarter the index grew from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY. 

The market positively reacted to Donald Trump’s decision to make Jerome Powell the new head of Fed, according to Reuters and CNN. Unlike Janet Yellen, who was Professor of Economics, Powell was an investment banker, which makes the investors to hope that he will soften Dodd–Frank Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010 and restricted the bank trading in the stock market significantly.

Support and resistance

Since Monday the price is trading within the range of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]). It can stay within the range until October USA manufacturing PMI publication and Fed’s meeting results (the interest rate is not expected to be risen. After the breakout of the level of 1.1657 the price can return within the main channel of 1.1790–1.1657. The key level for the “bears” is 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]), after the breakdown the correction can develop to the main support level at Murray 1.1475 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1535, 1.1475.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625. 
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:42 am
liteForex AUD/USD: Australian dollar returned to reduction

Current trend

Today AUD is reducing against US dollar moving away from local maximums updated yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from not so optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australian and expected strong labor market releases from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2).

AiG PMI dropped from 52.1 to 51.4 points in September which was worse that expected by the analysts. The volumes of retail sales in September remained on zero level after reduction by 0.5% MoM in August. Experts hopes the indicator would grow by 0.4%.
US dollar receives support from the data on jobless claims published yesterday. They were interesting for the investors in view of the upcoming report on the labor market. The number of initial claims during the week that ended on October 27, dropped from 234K to 229K against the expected growth to 235K.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate reduction. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also preserves a stable upward direction but is approaching the level of 80.
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7717, 0.7731, 0.7769.
Support levels: 0.7664, 0.7623, 0.7586.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7769 or 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7664. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 0.7664 may give the “bears” a way to 0.7600 or 0.7580 with stop-loss at 0.7700. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:51 am
liteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing for the third trading session in a row. Within a day Brent oil gained 3.12% and rose to 64.05 (a 28-month maximum).
Oil prices are supported by several factors. First of all, it is the restoration of supply and demand balance in the oil market in view of fulfillment of production reduction obligations by OPEC states. This was announced by the former OPEC Secretary General Rene Ortiz. Oil market is also supported by the new stage of tension in the Middle East. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is developing, and on Saturday Yemen launched a missile at Riyadh. 
Today market players are waiting for initial API data on weekly changes in US oil stocks (23:30 GMT+2). If the API report shows serious reduction of oil stocks, the rate of Brent may receive additional support and update its maximums. Official data by the US Department of Energy on oil stocks and the level of production will be released tomorrow (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone forming a buy signal. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 63.59, 62.40, 61.75.
Resistance levels: 64.30, 65.00, 66.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 64.30 with target at 65.00-66.00 and stop-loss at 63.80. 
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 63.59 with target at 62.40 and stop-loss at 63.90.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:31 pm
liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair entered the channel 1.3183 (Murray [4/8])–1.3122 (Murray [3/8]). 

On Tuesday the price was affected by controversial factors. Pound was under the pressure of poor UK BRC Retail Sales data. In October the index decreased by 1.0% due to clothing sales. British retailers fear that the high inflation level (3.0%) can affect the soon Christmas sales. 

British currency was supported by the Trade low data publications. The low will be implemented after the end of Brexit, and according to it the Government plans to make a number of contracts with the key trading EU, US and Australian partners, and help the companies which have contracts with foreign governments.
Today the price went down after the Philadelphia Fed’ head Patrick Harker commentaries, who noted that Fed didn’t see any reasons not to increase the interest rate on December meeting, and to increase the rate gradually next year, if the inflation allowed it.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140. 
The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:19 pm
liteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price was corrected from the level of 114.06 ([+1/8]) and by now has dropped to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (113.45) where it is fixed but yet unstable. The consolidation of the price below this level will open the way for further reduction to 112.50 ([8/8], lower line of Bollinger Bands), 111.70 (September and October minimums) and 110.93 ([7/8]). Otherwise the price may return to 114.06 ([+1/8]) and 114.64 ([7/8] in H4). Technical indicators show downward movement: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Generally, the continuation of the fall seems more likely due to the values of indicators and the distance between the chart and timeline.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 113.45 (medium line of Bollinger Bands), 112.50 ([8/8]), 111.70 (autumn minimums), 110.93 ([7/8]).
Resistance levels: 114.06 ([+1/8]), 114.64 ([7/8] in H4), 115.62 ([+2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant but they should be opened only if the price consolidates below 113.45 with targets at 112.50, 111.70 and stop-loss at 113.70.
Long positions should be opened above 114.06 with targets at 114.64, 115.62 and stop-loss at 113.70.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:02 pm
liteForex XAU/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price failed to consolidate above the level of 1281.25 ([2/8]) and has entered the range of 1281.25 ([2/8])-1265.63 ([1/8]) in which it has been trading for over a week. According to Stochastic that has reversed downwards, in the near future the price may drop to 1265.63 ([1/8]) once again and further go down to 1250.00 ([0/8]). Moreover, the price is under pressure from the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1281.25. In case the price consolidates above it, growth may continue to the border of the channel at 1296.88 ([3/8]) and further to the central level at 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1265.63 ([1/8]), 1250.00 ([0/8]), 1234.38 ([-1/8]).
Resistance levels: 1281.25 ([2/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant. They should be opened at the current price with targets at 1265.63, 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1285.00.
Long positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 1281.25 with targets at 1296.88, 1312.50 and stop-loss at 1280.00.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:02 pm
liteForex NZD/USD: Murray analysis

Current trend

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) and is tending to the level of 0.6835 ([0/8]), which it has tested in the end of October already. The level was unsuccessfully tested this May, too, so it is quite strong. After the breakdown of it the price can fall to the levels of 0.6775 ([–1/8]) and 0.6714 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed downwards. However, the reversal and breakout of the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) is not excluded, as the price is reaching the lower border of Bollinger Bands. In this case the price can grow to the levels of 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6775 ([–1/8]), 0.6714 ([–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6958 ([2/8]), 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around 0.6835 or above the level of 0.6958 with the targets at 0.7020 and 0.7080 and stop loss at 0.6800 and 0.6900. 
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6775 with the targets at 0.6714, 0.6670 and stop loss at 0.6810.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:10 pm
liteForex AUD/USD: under the pressure of Chinese data

Current trend

This week the pair is going down and is now trading around 0.7600. AUD is under the pressure of poor Chinese data: October Retail Sales indicator fell from 10.3% to 10.0% and Industrial production one decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. Chinese problems can significantly affect Australian economy negatively in long term. China consumes more than third of Australian export, a large part of it is iron ore. More than a half of it and iron product have been using in Chinese building market, which is slowing now. This fact has led to cut of surplus production capacities, which can affect Australian producers negatively.
Today US October Inflation data and Retail Sales publication can cause great volatility of the price. Consumer Price Index can fall from 2.2% to 2.0%, and after September growth by 1.6% Retail Sales data can be 0.0%. In this case the pair can enter the upward correction.

Support and resistance

The key “bearish” level is at 0.7568 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout will let the price fall to the area of 0.7507 (Murray [–2/8]). Stochastic’s attempt to reverse near the oversold area reflects the possibility of the upward correction. However, long positions with the targets at 0.7690 (Murray [4/8]), 0.7720 (Murray [5/8]) will become relevant only after the price is set above the level of 0.7630 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).

Resistance levels: 0.7630, 0.7690, 0.7720.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7507.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7507 and stop loss at 0.7600. 

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7630 with the targets at 0.7690, 0.7720 and stop loss at 0.7600. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:49 pm
EUR/USD: inflation is pushing the pair downwards

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair started correction from the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8] for D1). USD was supported by positive data on inflation in the USA. Basic CPI that the Fed uses to make decisions on changes in the interest rate, grew by 1.8% (after remaining on the level of 1.7% for five months). This gave the investors confidence that the regulator would increase the interest rate during its December meeting.
Today’s inflation statistics from Eurozone was negative for euro. CPI remained on the level of 1.4% and its basic variant dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. Moreover, the European currency is under pressure from the data that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has problems forming the new German government.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is moving towards the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8] for D1) and may well reach it if today’s data on US industrial output prove to be strong (the indicator is expected to grow from 0.3% to 0.5%). Breaking down the level of 1.1718 will open the way for further decrease to 1.1657 (Murrey level [3/8] for Н4) and 1.1596 ([-1/8] for D1). One may speak about considerable growth after the price breaks out the level of 1.1840. In this case the targets of the “bulls” will be 1.1900 (Murrey level [7/8] for H4) and 1.1962 ([2/8] for D1). Technical indicators show opposite signals. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area forming a sell signal. MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1657, 1.1596.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1790.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss 1.1800.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:38 am
NZD/USD: downward impulse maintains

Current trend

New Zealand Currency is significantly falling against the US dollar after the interest rate decision and RBNZ Statement upon the maintenance of the mild monetary policy in the long term.
In the middle of the last week in RBNZ statement was claimed that the key interest rate will stay on the same level, so the monetary policy perspectives are unclear. It was also noted, that low rate of the national currency is necessary to increase the inflation rate.
Today the pair rapidly went down, breaking few of the key support levels. Poor Business NZ PMI, Producer Price Index – Input and Output data affected the pair negatively. The pair has lost 100 points in a few hours, and downward momentum maintains. 
As there is lack of US key releases in the economical calendar, the pair will move according to the trading moods.

Support and resistance

The pair will fall to the key levels of 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575. Insignificant upward correction at the level of 0.6770 with the target at 0.6820 is possible, but after it the pair will decrease further. Technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD reflects the growth of short positions volumes, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920, 0.6975, 0.7010, 0.7050.
Support levels: 0.6770, 0.6730, 0.6680, 0.6575, 0.6500.

Trading tips

It’s better to increase the volume of short positions at the current level with the targets at 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575 and stop loss at 0.6860

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:43 pm
EUR/USD: instability in Germany puts pressure on euro

Current trend

The pair started the week with a fall to 1.1723. The market acted on the data on the termination of negotiations on the formation of a new German government. Free Democratic Party headed by Christian Lindener refused to become a part of the coalition government with CDU/CSU. Now Chancellor Angela Merkel may either create a government of parliamentary minority and reach separate agreements with the opposition on key bills, or hold an extraordinary parliamentary election. Anyway, instability in the German government will put pressure on EUR in the medium term.

After the opening of the European session the pair regained positions and is now trading around 1.1790. During the day the market is waiting for the speech by Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. However, the head of ECB is unlikely to say something new about the monetary policy. He stated several times that despite the success of the European economy stimulation had to be continued.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is located near 1.1780 (Murrey level [5/8]). Its breakdown may return the quotes to 1.1730 (lower line of Bollinger Bands)-1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]). One may speak about considerable growth in case the price consolidates above 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]). In this case growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are switching to the horizontal movement. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened below 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1820.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900 and 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1800.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:49 pm
NZD/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the pair continues to trade within the downward channel having decreased below the main support level of 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]). The instrument failed to break through this level several times, and it still remains important. In case it is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 0.6897 ([1/8]) and 0.6958 ([2/8]). Otherwise the price may go down to 0.6713 ([-2/8]).

Further fall of the quotes may be caused by today’s release of the dairy prices index by Global Dairy Trade. They have been falling a stable decreasing pattern since the beginning of October, and its continuation may put considerable pressure on the currency of New Zealand.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators don’t exclude reversal and upward correction. Stochastic is near the oversold area and moves horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and shows signs of divergence with the price chart which indicates reversal.

Support levels: 0.6775 ([-1/8]), 0.6713 ([-2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6897 ([1/8]), 0.6958 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions should be opened when the level of 0.6835 is broken through with targets at 0.6897, 0.6958 and stop-loss at 0.6800.
Short positions may be opened below 0.6775 with targets at 0.6713, 0.6670 and stop-loss at 0.6810. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:52 pm
AUD/USD: Philip Lowe stopped the fall of the pair

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair made an attempt of upward correction and rose to 0.7590. Investors acted upon the statement of the head of RBA Philip Lowe who said that at that time there was no need to increase the interest rates, but it could appear soon. The state of the economy indicates that the regulator is likely to increase the interest rate with its next decision. However, the optimism of the market did not last long, as Lowe gave no hints regarding the time of the increase. Currently the price is aiming at November minimums at 0.7535. 
The minutes of the Fed’s November meeting will be released in the evening. Investors will look for confirmations of their expectations regarding one more increase of the interest rate in the USA in December.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is consolidating around 0.7568 (Murrey level [2/8]) and may remain there until the end of the week. The consolidation of the price below 0.7568 will open the way for reduction to 0.7446 (Murrey level [1/8], lower border of the upward channel). Still, reversal and beginning of growth to 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7812 (Murrey [4/8]) seem more likely. This is confirmed by the fact that Stochastic starts to reverse in the oversold areas and Bollinger Bands have turned to horizontal movement.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7446, 0.7324.
Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7812.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened from 0.7600 with targets at 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7520 with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:28 pm
EUR/USD: American currency is under pressure

Current trend

The Thanksgiving Day is celebrated today in the USA, but dollar is under the pressure after FOMC Minutes publication. Some of FOMC members expressed their doubts in the rapid increase of the interest rate in unstable inflation growth conditions. Earlier the outgoing Fed’s head Janet Yellen stated the same doubts. On the other hand, EUR is supported by the news than the head of Social-Democratic Party Martin Schulz is ready to negotiate with Chancellor Angela Merkel upon her restricted support in case of minority party creation by her. 
In addition, the “bulls” were inspired by strong statistics from EU. Markit Services PMI reached the maximum level of 56.2 points since this May, as Markit Manufacturing PMI reached the record 60.0 points.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 1.1840 (Murray [6/8]) and after consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 1.1900 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murray [8/8]). Stochastic is in the overbought area, so the correction to the level of 1.1780 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The growth seems more likely.

Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop loss at 1.1800. 
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1820 with the targets at 1.1780 and 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1850.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:37 pm
USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

During last few trading weeks USD is rapidly falling against JPY due to the decrease of the investment attractiveness of the US currency after the slowing of the USA Fed’s monetary policy tightening. In addition, the change of the US regulator’s head affected USD negatively. 
Last week favorable Q3 economy growth data were released, and yen grew significantly. There were no key macroeconomic data this week, but the momentum strengthened and the demand on Japanese currency increased, as a result the pair fell by more than 150 points. Yesterday the instrument reached the key support level of 111.00 and reversed into consolidation. 
Due to US holidays in the end of the week the significant movement of the pair is not expected.

Support and resistance

In the short term the correction within the downward channel is expected, after the end of which the pair can fall to the levels of 110.50, 109.00. 
At the moment the demand on yen is high, which draws the pair downwards, and if US Fed will postpone the interest rate rise to 2018, the instrument can reach the levels of 108.15, 107.50. 
On the 4-hour chart technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD short positions volumes are growing, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 111.50, 111.75, 112.40, 112.60, 112.85, 113.45, 113.70, 114.00.
Support levels: 111.00, 110.50, 110.20, 109.55, 109.00, 108.15, 107.50.

Trading tips

It’s relevant to increase the volumes of short positions at the current level with the targets at 110.50, 109.00 and stop loss at 112.10. 

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:14 pm
GBP/USD: perspectives are unclear

Current trend

Last week pound was growing and reached the maximum since the beginning of October at the level of 1.3360 on Friday.
The investors concern more upon the possible slowing of the monetary policy tightening rate in the USA, than the Brexit negotiations of UK and EU difficulties, where the parties still cannot began to discuss trading agreements due to the fact that the Irish border issue is unclear. Irish government wants to get the guarantees from UK government, that the control on the border between North Ireland and Republic Ireland won’t be implied. Otherwise the Irish party, represented by Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan threatens to block further Brexit negotiations.

Intransigence of the parties and the delaying of Brexit negotiations make business community fears that the deal won’ be done at all, and UK will leave EU without any agreements. This has led to the fact that a number of companies decreased its presence in the country, which can result in the Industrial Production and GDP fall in the UK.
Last week British Office for Budget Responsibility decreased the next year GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.5%. The middle term perspectives of the currency are still unclear.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is tending to the level of 1.3366 (Murray [7/8]) and after the breakout can move upwards to the level of 1.3427 (Murray [8/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the levels of 1.3305 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 1.3244 (Murray [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect the growth. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, Stochastic reversed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3366, 1.3427, 1.3488.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3244, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3427 and stop loss at 1.3300.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3305 will make short positions with the targets at 1.3244, 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3340 relevant.

MikhailLF
Number of messages : 58
Points : 157
Date of Entry : 2017-09-08
Residence Country : europa

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

on Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:32 pm
EUR/USD: Powell strengthened dollar

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the pair was growing to the area of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]), but was corrected and is now trading around 1.1880. 
USD strengthened after Powell’s statements before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate meeting. Today the Committee should make a decision upon the conformation of Fed’s head. Powell noted, that the regulator will maintain the increasing rates and reducing balance-sheets policy and support the employment market and stimulate the inflation. He also supported the banks activity on the stocks markets restriction laws, which will let US financial system be strengthened.

Powell’s statement stimulated the growth of dollar, but it’s unclear, how significant will it be. Today the investors are focused on Trumps meeting with the US Senate Republican Party members, where he will try to persuade them to vote for the tax reform package, but earlier senators Ron Johnson and Bob Corker threatened to vote against the new laws. The result of the negotiations can bring the pair significant volatility.

Support and resistance

The price weakened below the level of 1.1900 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands and can be corrected to the levels of 1.1840 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.1780 (Murray [1/8]). The growth to the levels of 1.2023 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [6/8]) is possible after the breakout of the level of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1718.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1780 and stop loss at 1.1930. 
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1962 will make long positions with the targets at 1.2023, 1.2085 and stop loss at 1.1930 relevant.

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