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Broj poruka : 47
Points : 871
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27
View user profilehttps://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/?ibref=9779

Trade Pattern Ideas

on Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:13 pm
AUD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Tue, 26 Apr 2016 13:59:03 GMT


The channel up pattern for the AUD/USD currency pair is managing to preserve a high quality and magnitude reading, even though the pair has been unable to touch any of two trend-lines over the past three weeks.

The outlook will remain positive, as long as the exchange rate keeps hovering inside the channel, namely above the 0.7650 mark backed by the lower edge of the pattern. The key bullish aim is the monthly R1 in the short-term, a violation of which would allow for a rally up to the northern boundary of the channel at 0.7938.

From the downside, the pattern is well-defended by the 200-period SMA at 0.7619. As for the SWFX sentiment, now 54% of all positions are short.
Level:
Indicator:


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Broj poruka : 47
Points : 871
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27
View user profilehttps://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/?ibref=9779

Re: Trade Pattern Ideas

on Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:02 pm
NZD/USD attempts to retake 0.70
Spoiler:



Pair's Outlook
Having appreciated yesterday, the New Zealand Dollar prolonged the lifespan of the ascending channel pattern. The NZD/USD pair was unable to pierce the weekly R1 in order to retake the 0.70 mark yesterday, expected to make another attempt today.

The nearest resistance, however, is not only represented by the weekly R1, but also by the Bollinger band. According to technical studies, the retake of the 0.70 major level is the most probable scenario, with no signs of the bears prevailing. In case the exchange rate does drop lower today, the channel pattern is likely to remain intact, due to lack of a catalyst that could cause a breakout.

Traders' Sentiment
As of now 72% of all open positions are short (previously 74%), while 59% of all pending orders are to sell the Kiwi (previously 70%).
Spoiler:




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Broj poruka : 47
Points : 871
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27
View user profilehttps://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/?ibref=9779

Re: Trade Pattern Ideas

on Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:11 pm
USD/NOK: Channel Down
Fri, 29 Apr 2016 12:23:07 GMT
H4 Chart:


This is a rare case when the pattern's lower boundary merges with the major round level that is additionally acting as extra support for the pair. For the USD/NOK pair this level is located at 8.00, while being immediately followed by weekly and monthly S2s. Likelihood of new a leg up is high, as soon as these resistances are all reached over the next few days.

On Monday the new monthly pivots will be available, but notwithstanding that the US Dollar will put forward the scenario that will imply a climb in the direction of 8.20, namely the 100-period SMA and upper edge of the pattern. Purchases of the cross are backed by the SWFX market sentiment (70% short), which assumes USD is oversold.
Indicators:





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Broj poruka : 47
Points : 871
Date of Entry : 2015-05-25
Godina : 27
View user profilehttps://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/?ibref=9779

Re: Trade Pattern Ideas

on Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:18 am
Technical Analysis
07.14.2016


EUR/USD surges to 1.1090
“Nothing has changed on the daily chart of the EUR/USD forex market. It is still in its month-long trading range after what was probably an exhaustive sell climax.” – based on Brooks Price Action.

Pair’s Outlook
Spoiler:


The Euro surged marked a session of gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate increased from 1.1059 at the start of day’s trading to 1.1090 at the end of the day. The pair passed the weekly pivot point at 1.1079, and it stopped exactly at the 200-day simple moving average. Thursday morning, the rate is continuing to move higher, as it reached 1.1108 mark by 4:45 GMT. On the way up, the exchange rate is set to move to the monthly PP at 1.1149. However, the 20-day SMA at 1.1128 will likely show some resistance to the pair.

Traders’ Sentiment
Spoiler:


SWFX traders continue to be bearish on Thursday, as 54% of open positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 56% short.

GBP/USD waits patiently for the BoE’s decision
“We think the pound's rally will run out of steam once investors learn that the economy is likely to slow down from the investment side, weakening employment and then finally consumption.” - Morgan Stanley (based on Reuters).

Pair’s Outlook
Spoiler:


The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, ultimately closing with a 99-pip loss over the day, but without the immediate support area being reached. Today risks are still skewed to the downside, as the BoE is expected to cut its interest rate by half, which is considered to be negative for the UK currency. As a result, the Cable could fall back towards the 1.2855 level, where the one-year support line is located. Technical indicators are in favour of this outcome, but volatility could even stretch out further, namely towards the 1.26 major level. On the other hand, a surprise of leaving the rates
unchanged would only prolong the Sterling’s bullish momentum.

Traders’ Sentiment
Spoiler:


Bullish traders’ sentiment returned to its Tuesday’s level of 64%, while the portion of sell orders slumped from 74 to 52%.

USD/JPY remains on the back foot
“Stimulus expectations are behind the yen's decline, but the biggest factor is the firmness in stocks. Global improvement in risk sentiment also drove yen weakness. But the yen's uptrend remains as markets lack sufficient material to justify that the trend has reversed.” - Ueda Harlow (based on Business Recorder).

Pair’s Outlook
Spoiler:


Neither the immediate resistance nor the support areas were pierced yesterday, with the Greenback ultimately remaining relatively unchanged against the Yen. Although the Buck failed to make a solid Uturn, more bearish momentum could still follow today, as the overall trend remains bearish until the key resistance area around 109.00 is breached.

Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, also suggesting the USD/JPY currency pair is to suffer a loss today. The main target below currently is the 20-day SMA around 103.14, but it is uncertain whether there is sufficient impetus for a strong decline below 114.00.

Traders’ Sentiment
Spoiler:


Bulls keep losing numbers, as 61% of all open positions are now long (previously 63%). The share of buy orders edged up from 44 to 59%.

Gold regains losses on Wednesday
“A multi-decade rise in gold stocks versus all other assets is likely beginning. Institutional money managers are buying on days of strength, weakness, and sideways price action!” – Steward Thomson (based on investing.com).

Pair’s Outlook
Spoiler:


After falling on Tuesday, the yellow metal rebounded on Wednesday, as, after reaching the weekly low level of 1,331.66, the metal surged to 1,342.44, where it met with resistance put up by the weekly S1 exactly at that point. On Thursday morning, the commodity has bounced off the weekly S1, and it has dropped to 1,337.20 level by 5:00 GMT. From the lower side, the metal faces the 20-day SMA at 1,325.53 and the weekly S2 at 1,319.10. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for gold today.

Traders’ Sentiment
Spoiler:


SWFX traders are still short on the yellow metal, as 58% of open positions are bearish. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip range are 68% long.


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