Banx broker
Advertisement
Share
View previous topicGo downView next topic
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Market Research

on Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:02 pm
Green shoots’ turn oil prices red

Markets ignore budget, wait for ECB

Some confidence returned to stock markets on Wednesday as official UK growth targets were lifted and China reported an unusual trade deficit thanks to strong internal demand. The outside chance that the European Central Bank could announce a surprise tapering of its bond-buying program at its policy meeting on Thursday has some investors sitting on the side-lines.
   
Investors anticipating higher US interest rates sent financial stocks higher, helping the FTSE 100 to modest gains. Worldpay, Barclays and Standard Chartered were all top risers while L&G fell after poorly-received results. Apart from skimming a few pounds off the top of dividend income, the first and last Spring budget from Chancellor Philip Hammond was a bit of a damp squib. In a time of Brexit uncertainty, a nice boring budget from Spreadsheet Phil was probably the order of the day.
   
Trump delivers jobs & USD jumps

The US dollar hit a three week high against the yen, gold prices dropped to the lowest in a month and US treasury yields leaped after data showed the biggest monthly private company job gains in six years. Data released on Wednesday showed US private businesses added 298,000 jobs, over 100k more than consensus forecasts.
   
ADP is not historically the best predictor of the more widely watched data from the BLS. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will be the last possible stumbling block to a March rate rise. Given the strength of the ADP data, it would take a massive statistical aberration for the NFP to miss to such an extent that would justify keeping rates steady again. Odds of a March rate hike have hit 97% according to Fed funds futures, making a rate hike all but a certainty.
   
It’s only one month’s data - but so far, Donald Trump is delivering on his promise to get Americans back to work. Whether The Donald’s brazen tactics for bringing jobs back home will work in the long run is hotly debated, but it’s not a coincidence that his first full month in office coincided with a stronger monthly rise in jobs than the last six years under Obama. If this employment data is a sign of things to come for the US economy, then the rise in stock markets in the context of higher interest rates make  a lot more sense.
   
‘Green shoots’ turn oil prices red

Oil markets looked soft for a second day on Wednesday after data showed another weekly build in US inventories. The resurgence of US oil production in conjunction with a steady expansion in oil rigs is undermining confidence that OPEC output cuts will end the supply glut.
   
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalid al-Falih told a conference of oil magnates in Texas that the OPEC deal was sowing “green shoots” for the US shale industry. Mr Falih is voicing what many oil traders have been thinking. Indeed the concern that cutting output would play into the hands of producers who went part of the agreement was what led to Saudi Arabia’s recently abandoned policy of non-intervention.
   
US shale as well as other beaten-down parts of the oil industry including in the North Sea are coming back to life. New efficiencies, including a lot of job cuts mean an oil price above $50 per barrel is profitable. The three month consolidation in the oil price that chartists would recognise as a triangle pattern is overdue a breakout. Simply complying with previously agreed cuts may not be enough to prop up oil prices.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:33 am
Morning Call
03.09.2017



  • FTSE -18 points at 7316
  • DAX -12 points at 11955
  • CAC -2 points at 4958
  • Euro Stoxx -3 points at 3386


The US dollar extended gains against the G10 majors on the back of a solid ADP read on Wednesday. The US economy added 289K new private jobs in February, versus 187K expected and 246K printed a month earlier. The US 10-year yields advanced past 2.57% on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Gold tested $1200 support, if broken, could suggest a further slide toward $1180.
 
The US stocks extended losses for a third consecutive day amid oil prices dropped aggressively in the New York session.
 
The barrel of WTI tanked to $50.33 after the weekly EIA report revealed that the US crude inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels last week, to the highest since 1982. Given the rising oil inventories, how effective could the OPEC cuts be? From a technical perspective, the WTI slipped into the bearish consolidation zone after breaking the $50.72 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Trump rally). The bearish reversal could weigh on the $50 level. The next critical support is eyed at $40.20 (Fibonacci 50% level).
 
The S&P500’s energy stocks closed the day 3% lower; utilities and real estate remained under pressure.
 
In China, producer prices accelerated at the fastest pace since eight and half years due to the significant Yuan depreciation and higher oil and commodity prices. As such, higher Chinese PPI contributes to the global reflation in basic metals and commodity markets. In opposition, consumer prices heavily dropped to 0.8% year-on-year in February, versus 1.7% expected by analysts and down from 2.5% printed a month earlier. The sharp deceleration in consumer prices is certainly due to a significantly lower economic activity during the Chinese Lunar Year holidays. Still, the fast deceleration in consumer prices could encourage the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to tighten the monetary conditions in softer than previously anticipated fashion. The USDCNY advanced to 6.9203 on dovish PBoC expectations.
 
Asian markets traded mostly risk-off. Energy stocks (-2.65%) lead losses in Hong Kong.
 
Antipodeans, AUD (-0.41%) and NZD (-0.22%), were among the biggest losers in Asia. The AUDUSD tested the 0.75 mark. The bearish trend reversal hints at a further sell-off toward the 0.7450 (Fibonacci’s 50% on December – February rise) and 0.7382 (major 61.8% retracement). Meanwhile, the sell-off in Australian bonds accelerated; AU 10-year yields advanced to the highest since 2015. Still, carry traders are skeptical due to up-trending yields on the funding US dollar leg.
 
The FTSE futures (-0.46%) traded south on the back of softer oil and commodity prices. The UK stocks are set for a softer open, despite the weakening sterling. Energy and mining stocks will certainly start the session downbeat.  
 
The GBPUSD failed to reverse losses, although Chancellor of Exchequer Hammond delivered an upbeat outlook for Britain’s economy. The solid US dollar purchases weigh on Cable. Offers are touted at 1.2200.
 
Across the Channel, the focus is on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision. The ECB is expected to maintain the status quo at today’s meeting. The bank has already announced to reduce its monthly asset purchases from 80 billion to 60 billion euros starting from next month. The ECB will continue buying assets at least until the end of 2017. At his press conference, President Mario Draghi could hint at improved growth dynamics and rising inflation in the Eurozone economy, yet will likely remain supportive of loose monetary conditions due to rising French, Dutch and German election risks.
 
The EURUSD extended losses to 1.0528 on the back of broad USD appreciation. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably bearish and could encourage sellers to test the 1.0500/1.0495 support zone. On the upside, offers are sheltered pre-1.0605 (100-day moving average).
 
Against the pound, the 0.87 offers continue fighting back the euro bulls. A positive breakout could wet buyers’ appetite for a further rise toward 0.8850/0.8900 area. Failure to clear the 0.87 resistance should trigger a downside correction to 0.8590 (200-day moving average).
 
The DAX and the CAC stocks are expected to open on a softer note. The cheaper euro could encourage investors to jump on the bullish stock markets. While the 5K resistance on the CAC could be dissuasive in Paris on the back of presidential election risks, the DAX could gather sufficient momentum to take out the 12K offers.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:09 am
The Market Wrap
European stocks, euro weaker pre-ECB

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the status quo at today’s monetary policy meeting. The bank has already announced to reduce its monthly asset purchases from 80 billion to 60 billion euros starting from next month. The ECB will continue buying assets at least until the end of 2017.

At his press conference, President Mario Draghi could hint at improved growth dynamics and rising inflation in the Eurozone economy, yet will likely remain supportive of loose monetary conditions due to rising French, Dutch and German election risks.

On the other hand, the recent rise in the headline inflation is mostly due to higher oil and commodity prices. The rising oil inventories in the US, which caused a sharp drop in energy prices yesterday, suggests a slippery path for energy prices moving forward, especially given the US’ will to decrease its energy dependency on the rest of the world under Donald Trump’s rule.

On the currency markets, the euro extended losses to 1.0525 against the US dollar on the back of broad USD appreciation. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably bearish and could encourage sellers to test the 1.0500/1.0495 support zone. On the upside, solid offers at 1.0605 (100-day moving average) could cap an eventual ECB-driven rally.

Against the pound, the 0.87 offers continue fighting back the euro bulls. A positive breakout could wet buyers’ appetite for a further rise toward 0.8850/0.8900 area. Failure to clear the 0.87 resistance should trigger a downside correction to 0.8590 (200-day moving average).


The DAX and the CAC stocks opened on a softer note. The cheaper euro could encourage investors to jump on the bullish stock markets. While the 5K resistance on the CAC could be dissuasive on the back of presidential election risks, the DAX could gather sufficient momentum to take out the 12K offers.


WTI tests $50 on rising US oil inventories

The barrel of WTI tanked to $50.19 after the weekly EIA report revealed that the US crude inventories rose by 8.2 million barrels last week, the highest since 1982. Traders now investigate how effective could the OPEC production cuts be, given the rise in US oil inventories.

From a technical perspective, the WTI slipped into the bearish consolidation zone after breaking the $50.72 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Trump rally) yesterady. The bearish reversal could weigh on the $50 level. The next critical support is eyed at $40.20 (Fibonacci 50% level).

The FTSE (-0.59%) slipped below the 7300p on the back of softer oil and commodity prices. The cheaper pound is not sufficient to attract buyers in the UK’s stock markets today.

On the currency leg, the sterling failed to reverse losses against the US dollar, although Chancellor of Exchequer Hammond delivered a positive outlook for Britain’s economy at his budget statement on Wednesday. The solid US dollar purchases continue weighing on Cable. Offers are touted at 1.2200.


US dollar remains in demand pre-NFP


  • The US dollar extended gains against the G10 majors on the back of a solid ADP read on Wednesday.
  • The US economy added 289K new private jobs in February, versus 187K expected and 246K printed a month earlier.
  • The US 10-year yields advanced past 2.57% on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations at next week’s FOMC meeting.


The consensus for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is 200K versus 237K printed a month earlier. The average hourly earnings are expected to have improved by 0.3% month-on-month, meanwhile the unemployment rate is seen a touch lower at 4.7% compared to 4.8% a month earlier.
Except for a big surprise, the US jobs data will likely have no impact on the Fed’s March expectations. As of today, the markets assess 100% probability for the Fed to raise the interest rates by 25 basis points next week.


Chinese factory gate prices rose 7.8% in February

Chinese producer prices accelerated at the fastest pace since eight and half years due to the significant Yuan depreciation and higher oil and commodity prices. As such, higher Chinese PPI contributes to the global reflation in basic metals and commodity markets.

In opposition, consumer prices heavily dropped to 0.8% year-on-year in February, versus 1.7% expected by analysts and down from 2.5% printed a month earlier. The sharp deceleration in consumer prices is certainly due to a significantly lower economic activity during the Chinese Lunar Year holidays. Still, the fast deceleration in consumer prices could encourage the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to tighten the monetary conditions in softer than previously anticipated fashion.

The USDCNY advanced to 6.9203 on dovish PBoC expectations.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:04 pm
Gold slips below $1200, NFP in focus

As expected, the UK’s industrial and manufacturing production contracted in January. Cable remains offered pre-1.2200. The negative trend is picking up momentum for a potential pullback toward the 1.20 level.

The FTSE is better bid on the back of softer sterling. Despite the barrel of WTI consolidating below the $50 level, energy stocks (+0.45%) are better bid in London. Gains could be fragile as New York walks in.

The FTSE rolling index hit 7325p in the overnight trading session, suggesting that traders are testing the downside potential toward the 7300p mark and below. The 50-day moving average (7250p) has so far given a good support to the FTSE. Combined to a softer pound against both the US dollar and the euro, price pullbacks could attract dip-buyers.

Gold miners are having a tough Friday, as the yellow metal trades below $1200 for the first time since end-January. Randgold Resources (-2.24%) and Fresnillo (-2.88%) plunged to the bottom of UK’s 100 index and are expected to remain under pressure as long as the sell-off in global bond markets lingers.

Euro better bid Draghi’s comments, DAX trends higher

The euro recovered to 1.0615 against the US dollar amid the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi sounded slightly more hawkish than expected. The ECB is expected to reveal a tapering plan in September, if the Eurozone’s political picture is stable and the inflation is on a solid path toward the bank’s 2% mandate target.

The single currency took over the 0.87 offers against the pound. The positive breakout could encourage a further rise toward 0.8850/0.8900 area.

The DAX and the CAC firmed at the European open. The DAX holds support at the 12K level, which could encourage a further rise toward the 12100 historical high.

The CAC 40 consolidates gains above the 5K in Paris. Energy stocks (+1.23%) are the major drivers of the positive move. Despite the improved risk appetite, gains in French stocks could remain limited. The market’s hypersensitivity to election polls and breaking news is a major risk moving into the first round of the presidential election due on April 23rd.

US labour data could be inconsequential for Fed hawks

The US labour data is the main macro highlight of the day. Released on Wednesday, the solid ADP employment report kept the appetite tight in the US dollar. Although the correlation between the ADP and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is low, the consensus for today’s NFP is a feasible 200K versus 237K printed a month earlier.

The average hourly earnings are expected to have improved by 0.3% month-on-month, meanwhile the unemployment rate is seen a touch lower at 4.7% compared to 4.8% a month earlier.

Except for a big surprise, the US jobs data will likely have no impact on the Fed expectations. As of today, the markets assess 100% probability for the Fed to raise the interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

The US 10-year yields rose for a tenth consecutive session to 2.62%, a new high in the post-Trump rise, giving little reason to carry traders to use the US dollar as the funding/short leg of their strategy.

The Dow Jones and the S&P500 consolidated recent losses before the jobs data. The rise in the global risk appetite could benefit to the US stocks before the closing bell.


The Dow Jones is called 67 points firmer at $20925 at the US open
Aussie tests 0.75-support against the USD

The sell-off in the Australian sovereign bonds accelerated on the back of sharp headwinds in the US Treasuries before next week’s FOMC meeting. The AU 10-year yields spiked to 2.98% for the first time since mid-2015 and gave a brief relief to the Aussie before the US jobs data.

Although the Australian yields pick up on the back of US reflation trades, the US yields rose much faster. The narrowing the AU-US rate differential keeps many carry traders away from funding their strategies by shorting the higher yielding US dollar.

As a result, the AUDUSD retreated to 0.7490 on Thursday and the negative trend gained further momentum. Offers are touted at 0.7545 (200-day moving average) for a re-test of the 100-day moving average, actually standing at 0.7485. Clearing this level should pave the way toward the next target of 0.7450 (Fibonacci’s 50% level on December – February rise).


Gold slips below $1200

Gold trended lower for the fifth consecutive session. The yellow metal traded below the $1200 in Asia. Improved US yields are weighing on the sentiment. A further decline toward the $1180 could be considered on the back of improved US yields.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:45 pm
The Market Rundown

Banks and oil help stocks rebound

Stock markets spent most of Friday in positive territory with investors still unwilling to bet against higher prices despite strong odds of a rate increase in the US next week. Data showing solid US job growth makes a rate hike at next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve a near certainty.
 
The highest yields on German bunds for a month, which have moved in concert with US treasuries on expectation of a rise in US interest rates, supported European banking shares. Crude oil steadying nearing a three-month low boosted the energy sector. One of the Square Mile’s favourite rumours, that of Exxon buying BP was an additional support for the shares of Big Oil.
 
BT shareholders Openreach for the stars

Agreement reached over the ‘legal separation’ of BT from Openreach sent shares of the former to the top of the UK equity benchmark. Investors have been drawn in by the removal of short term uncertainty surrounding the separation.
 
Investors are making the bet that competitors like TalkTalk and Sky pull back from lobbying Ofcom for BT’s complete separation from Openreach. We tend to think TalkTalk would be better to focus on its own security issues given the revelations of customers being defrauded for Indian call centres, and Sky has the 21st Century Fox takeover to deal with. However, the longer term reaction could be different. What is quite likely a first step towards complete separation of BT from one of its biggest profit centres and a clear competitive advantage is not a positive for the share price.
 
Euro rallies with non-farm payrolls

The US dollar fell on profit-taking after non-farm payrolls data showed the US produced 235k jobs in February, well ahead of expectations. Slightly slower than anticipated wage growth was another reason for dollar bulls to temporally throw in the towel.
 
The euro got some early support from a bigger than expected rise in German wholesale prices. The subtle but significant admission from ECB president Mario Draghi yesterday that monetary stimulus is unlikely to increase has caused considerable euro short-covering. The widely held view that the euro will see parity to the dollar is in our view unlikely this year.
 
Sterling soft as Article 50 lines up

A pullback in the US dollar did little to support the British pound which traded in a tight range near 7 week lows after UK industrial output data disappointed. Signs of an industrial slowdown in combination with consumers reigning back spending signal softer GDP growth in the first quarter.
 
The potential for Article 50 to be triggered as early as Tuesday next week will colour the market’s reaction to the next Bank of England policy move. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a kneejerk reaction lower in Sterling once Article 50 is triggered, but since the announcement itself will bring no new information, we’d expect a recovery not long after. 

Perhaps the biggest near-term risk to Theresa May triggering Article 50 would be an accompanying request from the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon for a Scottish referendum. Even though the government have already indicated they wouldn’t permit a second referendum, it’s another layer of political uncertainty for markets to contend with.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:15 pm
The Market Wrap
03.13.2017

Fed, BoE, BoJ and CBT on week's agenda

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) will announce their latest policy verdicts throughout this week. Expectations vary.

Fed to hike rates, deliver hawkish statement

The Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting is the main highlight of the week for the US dollar traders. The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to 1.00% on Wednesday.

Although the Fed rate hike is priced in at 100%, the Fed watchers will be focused on the dot plot to catch any hints regarding the future of the Fed policy.

The Fed could steepen the rate normalization in 2017 and hike rates more than three times as anticipated until the beginning of March. The consensus shifts toward an overall 100 basis points hike via four actions in 2017.

If the Fed’s accompanying statement is sufficiently hawkish, the US dollar could take another ride on the upside. According to the latest CFTC data, the net speculative USD long positions surged to the highest level since February.


Will the BoJ comment on lower bond purchases?

Japan started the week on weak economic data. The machine orders in Japan contracted by 3.2% on month to January; consequently machine orders declined by a significant 8.2% on yearly basis. The yen depreciation has apparently failed to reverse the declining trend.

The producer prices in February rose by 0.2%m/m as expected, pushing the yearly figure to 1% versus 0.5%y/y printed a month earlier. The rise is mostly due to the global reflation trend on oil and commodity prices. On the other hand, the consumer prices ex-fresh food printed 0.1% y/y in January, suggesting that the BoJ has little choice but to keep the policy loose.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets later in the week and is expected to maintain the monetary stance accommodate. Nevertheless, according to many, the BoJ could hint at tapering in monthly asset purchases given that it has already reduced the pace of its asset purchases over the last month. Bloomberg reveals that at the current speed, the BoJ would miss its annual asset purchases target of 80 trillion yen. 

They would buy 66 trillion yen instead and announce a target range for the 10-year JGB yields. An eventual tapering would be due to the BoJ’s will to minimize the implications of negative interest rates, especially on pension funds and financial institutions, and the  lack of JGBs on the markets rather than a will to tighten the monetary conditions per se. The BoJ is expected to maintain the loose monetary conditions, yet could bring forward another set of tools, perhaps more appropriate for long-term strategies.

In fact, if there were a good time for the BoJ to test an eventual readjustment in its bond purchasing program (QQE), it would certainly be now given that the hawkish Fed divergence should keep the buying pressures limited on the yen. In the mid-term, the market expectations for the USDJPY are positively biased.

However, the near-term direction in USDJPY will depend on this week’s BoJ and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
The USDJPY started the week slightly bid against the greenback. Light offers are eyed at 115.00/115.50 (weekly resistance), before the critical 115.92 (major 61.8% retracement on December – February decline). Buyers trail up from 113.55 (50-day moving average & weekly support).


Nikkei (+0.15%) and Topix (+0.22%) traded marginally higher on stronger yen.
House of Commons votes as May seeks approval to trigger Brexit

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain the status quo. Despite the rising inflationary pressures, the Brexit uncertainties give little maneuver margin to the bank. Monetary conditions need to be loose to minimize any eventual squeeze in the economic activity due to the Brexit. The BoE is ready to tolerate a higher inflation.

On the other hand, PM Theresa May waits for the Parliament’s approval to fling herself to trigger the Brexit discussions by the end of March. The House of Commons will vote today on whether or not PM May would be authorized to trigger the Brexit.
Cable gained 0.51% against the US dollar on the back of a broadly softer greenback. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably bearish for the sterling, as the Brexit worries dent buyers’ appetite.

Traders are expected to sell into the rallies moving into the FOMC meeting. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed would widen the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BoE and could encourage the GBP-bears for a further slide toward the 1.20 mark against the greenback.

The cheap pound is supportive for the FTSE. Mining stocks (+1.50%) outperformed at the London open on the back of firmer copper futures (+1.35%).

  • Rio Tinto (+3.05%), Glencore (+2.75%), BHP Billiton (+2.33%), Anglo American (+3.77%)
  • BP (-1.00%) and Royal Dutch Shell (-0.41%) shred five points from the FTSE 100 at the open.

On a side note, the barrel of WTI traded down to $47.90 in Asia, in the continuation of headwinds following last week’s solid increase in the US oil inventories. If the US keeps the current production pace, the OPEC cuts could no longer sustain the global oil prices but reducing supply. WTI-bears are touted at $50.

Turkey expected to raise late liquidity lending rate

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is expected to maintain the weekly repurchase rate and the overnight lending/borrowing corridor unchanged at April 16thmonetary policy meeting.

The CBT is however expected to raise the late liquidity lending rate from 11.00 to 11.50% as a better safety net in case of higher stress during the month into the critical constitutional referendum.

The lira (-0.50%) started the week weaker against a broadly softer US dollar. Rising political tensions with Netherlands pushed the USDTRY past 3.75 at the start of the week. Combined to hawkish Fed expectations, the positive momentum could gain further momentum to re-test the 3.78/3.80 area.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:49 pm
The Market Rundown

Slow burn in markets

The anticipation of a busy week ahead including the possible triggering of Article 50, a potential populist revolt in the Dutch national election and a likely US interest rate hike meant there was a slow burn in markets on Monday.
   
Galliford Try to merge with Bovis

Homebuilder shares were top risers on speculation a wave of M&A could be about to spread through the troubled sector. Bovis Homes has rejected a second merger proposition from Galliford Try, not long after rejecting rival Redrow. The rather paltry 7% premium proposed by Galliford Try is likely why it has failed for now but negotiations are ongoing. The deal would combine Britain’s 6th and 8th largest homebuilders. Redrow announced it is still interested is another reason bovis can expect a better premium.
   
Shares of Bovis jumped on hopes from investors that a merger could turnaround the company’s underperformer status that has kept the share price below pre-Brexit levels and lagging other homebuilders. Shares of the budding acquirers were also higher. These deals are being viewed as an appropriate defence against a slowing housing market and potential Brexit fallout. Separately data from estate agency Countrywide showed rents fell in February for the first time since 2010
   
We don’t see any regulatory opposition to the deal, though we do think it could conflict with the government’s plans for more housing. The cost synergies that motivate most mergers could mean more profit at the expense of less homes being built.

The Scottish National Party has thrown another spanner in the Brexit works with calls for another Scottish referendum. The British pound was higher on the day since the announcement was well telegraphed by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. The pound has already fallen sharply since the first rumblings of another referendum began two weeks ago.
   
Polls consistently show a majority support for staying in the union and opposition to a second referendum. An Independent of Scotland is the raison d'être of the SNP so the political opportunism after Brexit makes sense. Future movements in Sterling may depend on Theresa May’s decision on whether to grant the referendum. The critical language so far from the government would suggest it won’t grant the referendum.
   
Another Scottish referendum during negotiations with the EU would clearly add another layer of complexity to Brexit, hence the sharp drop in the pound over the last two weeks. All else being equal, we would assume denying the Scots another referendum would be positive for the pound. However, politically a denial could end up being more destabilising if the SNP opted to have a non-binding Scotland-wide ‘consultative poll’ anyway. Being able to vent frustration without consequence would likely get a higher result for the nationalists.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Morning Call

on Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:03 am

  • FTSE +2 points at 7360
  • DAX flat at 11990
  • CAC +4 points at 4978
  • Euro Stoxx flat at 3400


Oil extended losses to $47.09 as Saudi Arabia increased its oil production above 10 million barrels per day, hence retracing its January cut by roughly 30%. The Brent crude tanked to $50.25 for the first time since November 30th, when OPEC decided to cut production at the Vienna meeting.

The weekly data on the US crude oil inventories is due today and analysts expect the oil inventories to have expanded by 3.3 million barrels, versus 8.2 million barrels printed a week earlier. Any positive surprise in US oil inventories could revive the oil bears and push the barrel of WTI below $47. An eventual reversal in global oil output trend could pave the way for a further slide to $45.
The Dow Jones (-0.21%) and the S&P500 (-0.34%) as energy stocks lead losses.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce 25 basis points increase in interest rates today. While the Fed has little chance to hold fire, the major focus is on whether it will be a hawkish or a dovish hike. The Fed’s dot plot is what is expected to move the global markets. The USD appetite depends on the Fed members’ future rate projections. 

At the beginning of the year, the Fed was expected to proceed with three rate hikes in 2017. A hawkish stance would shift the expectations toward four rate hikes instead. In fact, depending on how the fiscal policy evolves, the Fed could hike rates up to 100 basis points to cool down an eventual overheating in the economy.

The US dollar index remains above the 100-day moving average (100.95). We are prepared for two-sided volatility. Given that the interest rate hike is entirely factored in the US dollar and the US sovereign bond markets, the level of hawkishness, or dovishness, should determine the short-term direction.

The US dollar softened against the majority of its G10 counterparts in Asia, except the yen.

The USDJPY has again been interrupted by 115.00/115.50 offers yesterday and consolidated in the tight range of 114.63/114.88 in Tokyo. A positive breakout above 115.50 should encourage a solid positive momentum to challenge 115.92 (major 61.8% retracement on December – February decline). Failure to clear resistance could trigger a short-term bearish reversal for a mid-term slide toward the 112.00/111.50 zone.

Gold hovers around the $1200 waiting for how the Fed expectations will shape up at today’s policy announcement. A hawkish hike could encourage investors to move more capital to yield bearing assets, such as bonds, and divest from their gold holdings. The key short-term support is eyed at $1193 (Fibonacci’s 50% on December – February recovery), if broken could suggest a further slide to $1180 (January 26 low). The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold ETF, traded at a six-week low ($114.025), with trading volumes less than 30% of the fifteen day average.

It is the Election Day in Netherlands and the results are due on Thursday. Although the far-right PVV outstands as one of the biggest parties, Geert Wilders is unlikely to find allies to form a coalition, a situation which hinders the immediate gravity of the situation in Netherlands.

Yet, a populist victory would have wider implications for Europe moving into the first round of the French presidential election due on April 23rd. An eventual populist trend in Netherlands could revive expectations that the French populist Marine Le Pen could actually win the presidential race, in which case, the future of France in the EU and the Eurozone will be in danger. Furthermore, an eventual Frexit could also place the EU integrity under pressure. 

Therefore, PVV’s success could have a widespread domino effect across the European Union only several days after the UK’s Parliament gave PM Theresa May the green light to trigger the Brexit.

The worries surrounding the European politics is weighing on the single currency. After EURUSD's failure to break above the critical 1.0707 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Trump decline) on Monday, the cross sold off to its 100-day moving average (1.0605) and has gathered enough momentum to extend losses toward the 1.0500/1.0490 mid-term resistance. The EURUSD’s short-term trajectory depends on the combination of Fed/Dutch election. Less hawkish Fed, and/or a negative surprise for Dutch populists could trigger a relief rally in the euro complex.

The EURGBP held ground above the 0.87 level. Potential headwinds should see support pre-0.8600 (200-day moving average) unless the Dutch election reveals higher-than-expected worries on Thursday.

Rising negative momentum in EURCHF hints at the possibility of a temporary slide below 1.07 as euro-skeptical investors may find it safe to park their cash in Switzerland. Though, money will unlikely remain in the Swiss franc for long in the global reflation picture, given that the Swiss National Bank charges 0.75% on sight deposits.

In the UK, the GBPUSD rebounded after hitting a two-month low of 1.2108 yesterday. Due today, the labour data is the focus of traders. The average earnings in Britain are expected to have eased to 2.4%y/y in three months to January from 2.6% printed a month earlier. The slowdown in wages growth is a sign of stabilization in the labour market according to Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney and should have a gradually decreasing impact on inflation. The BoE meets tomorrow and is expected to maintain the status quo. Traders remain seller on rallies as the Brexit uncertainties weigh on the sentiment.

Cheaper pound failed to convince the FTSE buyers yesterday. The FTSE 100 closed the day 0.13% lower. Energy stocks are in focus today, as the US data could squeeze the market in one direction or the other. The FTSE is expected to open slightly firmer in London, yet should bump into solid 7400p offers.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:42 am
GBP sold on weaker wages growth, Fed

Cable sold off on the back of softer earnings report. The average earnings in Britain grew by 2.2% in three months to January, versus 2.4% expected and down from 2.6% printed a month earlier.

The slowdown in wages growth is a sign of stabilization in the labour market according to Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney and should have a gradually decreasing impact on inflation. As a result, the BoE could keep its policy stance loose to walk the UK through a possibly potholed Brexit road.

The BoE meets tomorrow and is expected to maintain the status quo. Traders remain seller on rallies as the Brexit uncertainties weigh on the sentiment. Stronger pound keeps the FTSE appetite limited in London. Energy stocks are in focus today, as the US data could squeeze the market in one direction or the other. Energy stocks are (+0.25%) firmer in London, yet gains are at risk before the data.


Fed: hawkish or dovish hike?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce 25 basis points increase in interest rates today. While the Fed has little chance to hold fire, the major focus is on whether it will be a hawkish or a dovish hike. The Fed’s dot plot is what is expected to move the global markets. The USD appetite depends on the Fed members’ future rate projections. At the beginning of the year, the Fed was expected to proceed with three rate hikes in 2017. A hawkish stance would shift the expectations toward four rate hikes instead. In fact, depending on how the fiscal policy evolves, the Fed could hike rates up to 100 basis points to cool down an eventual overheating in the economy.

The Dow Jones (-0.21%) and the S&P500 (-0.34%) consolidated losses in New York. US stock traders are expected to remain sideways before the Fed hearing. The Dow Jones is called 45 points firmer at $20883 at the US open. The Fed’s decision, and more importantly the market’s reaction to the announcement should determine the mood for the day.

The US dollar index remains above the 100-day moving average (100.95). We are prepared for two-sided volatility. Given that the interest rate hike is entirely factored in the US dollar and the US sovereign bond markets, the level of hawkishness, or dovishness, should determine the short-term direction.


The US dollar softened against the majority of its G10 counterparts in Asia, except the yen.

Gold hovers around the $1200 waiting for how the Fed expectations will shape up at today’s policy announcement. A hawkish hike could encourage investors to move more capital to yield bearing assets, such as bonds, and divest from their gold holdings. The key short-term support is eyed at $1193 (Fibonacci’s 50% on December – February recovery), if broken could suggest a further slide to $1180 (January 26 low).

The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold ETF, traded at a six-week low ($114.025), with trading volumes less than 30% of the fifteen day average.


Political risks weigh on euro as Netherlands votes

It is the Election Day in Netherlands and the results are due on Thursday. Although the far-right PVV outstands as one of the biggest parties, Geert Wilders would be unlikely to find allies to form a coalition, a situation which hinders the immediate gravity of the situation in Netherlands.

Yet, a populist victory would have wider implications for Europe moving into the first round of the French presidential election due on April 23rd. An eventual populist trend in Netherlands could revive expectations that the French populist Marine Le Pen could actually win the presidential race, in which case, the future of France in the EU and the Eurozone could be compromised. Furthermore, an eventual Frexit could also place the EU integrity under pressure.

Therefore, an eventual PVV success could have a widespread domino effect across the European Union only several days after the UK’s Parliament gave PM Theresa May the green light to trigger the Brexit.

The worries surrounding the European politics is weighing on the single currency. After the failure to break above the critical 1.0707 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Trump decline) on Monday, the cross sold off to its 100-day moving average (1.0605) and has gathered enough momentum to extend losses toward the 1.0500/1.0490 mid-term resistance.

The EURUSD is slightly up on the session due to a broad based US dollar weakness before the Fed. The short-term trajectory depends on the combination of Fed/Dutch election. Less hawkish Fed, and/or a negative surprise for Dutch populists could trigger a relief rally in the euro complex.

The EURGBP shortly slipped below the 0.87 level. Potential headwinds should see support pre-0.8600 (200-day moving average) unless the Dutch election reveals higher-than-expected worries on Thursday.

Rising negative momentum in EURCHF hints at the possibility of a temporary slide below 1.07 as euro-skeptical investors may find it safe to park their cash in Switzerland. Though, money will unlikely remain in the Swiss franc for long in the global reflation environment, given that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) charges 0.75% on sight deposits.

The SNB is expected to revise its inflation forecast at tomorrow’s meeting. Nevertheless, the money markets are not pricing in a nearby rate normalization just yet. The 3-month Euroswiss soared to 100.78 for the first time in 2017.


Rising global oil supply weighs on prices

Oil extended losses to $47.09 yesterday, as Saudi Arabia increased its oil production above 10 million barrels per day, hence retracing its January cut by roughly 30%. The Brent crude tanked to $50.25 for the first time since November 30th, when OPEC decided to cut production at the Vienna meeting.

The black gold rebounded amid the API (American Petroleum Institute) printed a surprise 531K barrel decrease.

The EIA’s weekly data on the US crude oil inventories is due today and analysts expect the oil inventories to have expanded by 3.3 million barrels, versus 8.2 million barrels printed a week earlier. Any positive surprise in US oil inventories could revive the oil bears and push the barrel of WTI below $47. An eventual reversal in global oil output trend could pave the way for a further slide to $45.


Could Fed/BoJ divergence convince yen traders to buy past $115.00/115.50?

The USDJPY has again been interrupted by 115.00/115.50 offers yesterday and consolidated in the tight range of 114.63/114.88 in Tokyo. A hawkish Fed, and/or a dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ) could trigger a fresh rally in the USDJPY.

A positive breakout above 115.50 should encourage a solid bullish momentum to challenge 115.92 (major 61.8% retracement on December – February decline). On the flip side, failure to clear resistance could trigger a short-term bearish reversal for a mid-term slide toward the 112.00/111.50 zone.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:43 pm
The Market Rundown


Oil the saviour before the Fed

Trading was muted on Wednesday as markets awaited a likely US interest rate hike and the first test of the populist uprising in 2017 via the Dutch election. Stocks could spring to life on tomorrow’s open once the Fed has made its move and the Dutch election result is known.
   
A dead cat bounce in the price of oil after a string of sharp daily declines came to the aid of stock markets with energy the top rising sector. Having sold off during earnings season when oil prices were flat, energy stocks have outshone the underlying commodity in the recent decline.
   
Bank stocks were in demand as investors positioned for the early stages of a higher interest rate environment. The Euro Stoxx 600 bank and oil & gas indices were both up over 1% on the day.  As a sector, European banks have recovered from being negative year-to-date to making multi-year highs this week.
   
Hikma Pharmaceuticals was the top riser on the FTSE 100 after reporting a smaller than expected fall in profits and lifted its full year dividend. Gold prices near six week lows ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting meant gold miner Randgold was bottom of the heap.
   
A rise in oil stocks tipped US stocks into a positive open but volatility was low leading into the Fed meeting.
   
Early morning Sterling spikes

Two consecutive days of sharp moves in the value pound around 6am GMT, to the downside on Tuesday and to the upside on Wednesday, is indicative of the mixed beliefs among traders over the impact of triggering Article 50.
   
On Wednesday, data showed UK unemployment hit its lowest since 1975 but moderating wage growth that accompanied it meant there was a sell-off in the British pound. The central worry after Brexit is the squeeze on living standards from inflation outstripping wages so the negative reaction in the pound makes sense. Still, the declines after the data only erased some of the early morning gains, leaving Sterling higher on the day.
   
As GBP approaches the 1.20 handle, two stark viewpoints on Sterling come into view. 1) Brexit is priced in and we are carving out a bottom 2) Negotiations on exiting the EU will show the true magnitude of the problem and more downside is to come.
   
The Fed’s take on reflation

The US dollar was lower as caution set in before the Fed meeting. At her semi-annual testimony, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen made clear that the Fed would not base its monetary policy on speculation about Donald Trump’s spending plans nor would she wait for Trump’s administration to announce a clear policy agenda to act.
   
It’s clear that the Fed is ready to tighten policy based on the current strength of US economy, regardless of the uncertainty of Trump’s spending plans. What’s less clear is that the Fed is ready to signal a faster pace of rate hikes than in the last set of forecasts. The so-called dot plot will be the item to watch. The implied 3 rate hikes in the last dot plot could easily involve a hike in March and two more for the year. A so-called ‘dovish hike’ where the Fed lifts rates but is cautious on its forecasts could weigh on the dollar but may be just the goldilocks result needed to push stocks higher again.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:07 pm
Week Ahead: Fedspeak, Gold, Oil, UK Data


The Federal Reserve finally lifted rates last week, but it was accompanied by unchanged forecasts, making it a ‘dovish hike’ which led to higher stocks and commodities and a drop in the dollar. A number of Fed speakers in the week starting March 20th could set the tone for whether this market reaction continues or reverses.
   
Also on tap, UK retail sales and inflation data will make for interesting viewing following the dissent of MPC policymaker Kristen Forbes at last week’s Bank of England meeting. If inflation continues to rise as expected, it adds credence to her hawkish stance. We are also expecting an official response from the UK government to a second Scottish referendum.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

LCG Morning Call

on Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:29 pm

  • FTSE flat at 7425
  • DAX -39 points at 12056
  • CAC -9 points at 5020
  • Euro Stoxx -10 points at 343



Dear Trader,

The US dollar made a soft start to the week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a ‘dovish’ rate hike at last week’s monetary policy meeting. In addition, the G20 meeting revived worries about the US’ trade protectionism as finance chiefs were brought to drop a reference to fight protectionism in their joint statement. Several leaders were left frustrated with the US’ position regarding the global trade under Trump administration, including China, Japan, Russia, Germany and France.

The uncertainties regarding the US’ relationship with the rest of the world weighed on equity traders’ sentiment. As the world’s number one economy is preparing to set significant barriers, investors are increasingly worried. How will the US protectionism affect the US companies’ overseas businesses and how much value would it shred from the US stocks’ value, if any? Will the US behavior be a game changer for the international trade dynamics? How fast and by how much will the world’s giant close its doors to the rest of the world? And finally, given the actual developments, how long could the US defend its position as the world’s leader?

The Dow Jones (-0.10%) and the S&P500 (-0.13%) closed on a negative note on Friday, while Asian traders stayed away from the US equity futures at this week’s open: Dow Jones futures (-0.11%), SPX futures (-0.13%), NASDAQ futures (-0.15%).

Still, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had good news, as they backed the idea of removing barriers to support free and fair trade. Their common will to drop trade barriers revived appetite in the euro and the yen. The yen also benefited from safe heaven flows at the start of the week, although the markets in Japan were closed due to the bank holiday.

All G10 currencies, except the pound, gained against the US dollar in the Asian trading session. The market turned flat into the European open.

Money flew into Japanese yen. The USDJPY traded below 112.50 for the first time in February. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator stepped in the bearish zone, suggesting that the USD sell-off against the yen is gaining momentum toward 111.60 (February support). Below 111.60, the USDJPY will face important mid-term technical levels. The Fibonacci’s 50% level on post-Trump reflation rally, 110.55, is seen as the critical support before the 110.00 psychological mark.

The EURUSD is looking to fight back the 1.0782 (Friday high) to reach 1.0820/1.0830 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on post-Trump decline / 2017 resistance). If surpassed, the pair could target the 200-day moving average, 1.0858 for the first time since Nov 9th, the US presidential election.

Meanwhile, limited risk appetite and softer US yields continue encouraging inflows back into gold holdings. Gold extended gains to $1235. The strengthening positive momentum suggests a recovery toward the 200-day moving average, $1262. The key support is eyed at $1210/1200. The SPDR Gold shares, the world’s biggest gold ETF, gained more than 2.5% since the Fed’s announcement.

On the other hand, the WTI crude traded rangebound near its 200-day moving average, $49. Investors are undecided regarding OPEC’s plans to deal with the increase in the global oil supply. The US inventories stand at historical high levels, although the inventories unexpectedly retreated by 237K barrel according to last week’s EIA data. As of today, we know that the US has no will to contribute to global production cut; instead, President Trump aims to decrease the US’ oil dependency to the rest of the world. In 2015, the US imported roughly 40% of its oil from Canada and 11% from Saudi Arabia. In 2016, the EIA data printed 38% and 12% respectively.

FTSE 100 (+0.12%) closed flat on Friday’s session. Stronger pound pulled the UK’s biggest caps down to 7402p. The index is set for a flat open, yet downside risks prevail. Softer oil and commodity prices could weigh on energy and mining stocks after the US delivered a protectionist stance at the G20 meeting. The Bank of England (BoE) hawks could send the pound above the 100-day moving average (1.2408) against the US dollar. 

The UK’s inflation data is due on Tuesday and could restate the rising inflationary pressures in the UK. The consensus for the headline inflation is 2.1% year-on-year in February versus 1.8% printed a month earlier. The core inflation may have climbed to 1.7% year-on-year from 1.6% a month earlier. After the MPC delivered an unexpectedly hawkish stance at last week’s monetary policy meeting, a solid inflation read could easily boost the BoE hawks, encourage a further appreciation in the pound across the board and dent the appetite in the FTSE.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

The Market Wrap

on Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:32 pm
Risk appetite hit by G20 communiqué

The European equity markets started the week on a heavy risk-off sentiment after the G20 communiqué explicitly reflected the US intentions to establish trade protectionist measures.  The FTSE 100 opened downbeat as Cable traded above the 100-day moving average. Mining and energy stocks lead losses on softer oil and commodity prices on fears that US protectionism could negatively impact the global demand. Iron ore cheapened 0.42%, copper wrote off 0.69%.

Across the Channel, the DAX 30 (+0.10%) and the CAC 40 (-0.46%) opened under pressure as well.The cash flows into safe heaven assets as gold and the yen.US showed its teeth at the G20 meeting, leaving world leaders frustrated. USD sold off.The US dollar made a soft start to the week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a ‘dovish’ rate hike at last week’s monetary policy meeting.

In addition, the G20 meeting revived worries about the US’ trade protectionism as finance chiefs were brought to drop a reference to fight protectionism in their joint statement. Several leaders were left frustrated with the US’ position regarding the global trade under Trump administration, including China, Japan, Russia, Germany and France.

The uncertainties regarding the US’ relationship with the rest of the world weighed on equity traders’ sentiment. As the world’s number one economy is preparing to set significant barriers against the world, investors are increasingly worried.

How will the US protectionism affect the US companies’ overseas businesses and how much value would it shred from the US stocks’ value, if any? Will the US behavior be a game changer for the international trade dynamics? How fast and by how much will the world’s giant close its doors to the rest of the world? And finally, given the actual developments, how long could the US defend its position as the world’s leader?

The Dow Jones (-0.10%) and the S&P500 (-0.13%) closed on a negative note on Friday, while Asian traders stayed away from the US equity futures at this week’s open: Dow Jones futures (-0.11%), SPX futures (-0.13%) and NASDAQ futures (-0.15%) traded south.
The Dow is called 15 points lower at $20100 at the US open.


Yen, gold gain on safe heaven flows


Money flows into Japanese yen and gold.The USDJPY traded below 112.50 for the first time in March. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator stepped in the bearish zone, suggesting that the USD sell-off against the yen is gaining momentum toward 111.60 (February support). Below 111.60, the USDJPY will face important mid-term technical levels. The Fibonacci’s 50% level on post-Trump reflation rally, 110.55, is seen as the critical support before the 110.00 psychological mark.

Limited risk appetite and softer US yields continue encouraging inflows back into gold holdings. Gold extended gains to $1235. The strengthening positive momentum suggests a recovery toward the 200-day moving average, $1262. The key weekly support is eyed at $1210/1200.

The SPDR Gold shares, the world’s biggest gold ETF, gained more than 2.5% in two consecutive sessions.
 


UK inflation could enhance pound appreciation

The Bank of England (BoE) hawks sent the pound above the 100-day moving average (1.2408) against the US dollar for the first time in three weeks.Further pound appreciation is on the radar moving into Tuesday’s inflation report.Tuesday’s data could reaffirm the rising inflationary pressures in the UK. The consensus for the headline inflation is 2.1% year-on-year in February versus 1.8% printed a month earlier. The core inflation may have climbed to 1.7% year-on-year from 1.6% a month earlier.

After the MPC delivered an unexpectedly hawkish stance at last week’s monetary policy meeting, a solid inflation read could easily boost the BoE hawks, encourage a further appreciation in the pound across the board and further dent the appetite in the FTSE.


Oil rangebound despite cheaper US dollar

The WTI crude traded rangebound near its 200-day moving average, $49. Investors are undecided regarding OPEC’s plans to deal with the increase in the global oil supply.Saudi Arabia is currently doing the heavy lifting, as the OPEC countries and Russia reduced production to support the global oil prices. The question is how long Saudi will keep the weight on its shoulders given that its own finances are significantly hit due to low oil prices since mid-2014.

Meanwhile, the US inventories stand at historical high levels, although the inventories unexpectedly retreated by 237K barrel according to last week’s EIA data. As of today, we know that the US has no will to contribute to global production cut; instead, President Trump aims to decrease the US’ oil dependency to the rest of the world. In 2015, the US imported roughly 40% of its oil from Canada and 11% from Saudi Arabia. In 2016, the EIA data printed 38% and 12% respectively. The data suggests that Mr. Trump has enough room to further squeeze the global oil markets and pressure the prices on the downside.


EUR pushes higher on Visco’s comments

The EURUSD is looking to fight back the 1.0782 (Friday high) to reach 1.0820/1.0830 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on post-Trump decline / 2017 resistance). If surpassed, the pair could target the 200-day moving average, 1.0858 for the first time since Nov 9th, the US presidential election.

Ignazio Visco, a member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Coucil stated that the time between the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and rate hike could be shorter, giving the euro bulls another reason to push higher.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:00 am

  • FTSE +4 points at 7434
  • DAX +25 points at 12078
  • CAC +16 points at 5028
  • Euro Stoxx +13 points at 3450


Dear Trader,

Asian equities traded with limited risk appetite. Japanese stocks started the week on a negative note. The G20 communiqué weighed on Japanese stocks; Nikkei (-0.34%) and Topix (-0.16%) eased as the yen strengthened at the early trading hours. The USDJPY extended losses to 112.27 in Tokyo. The solid negative momentum suggests a deeper move toward the 111.60 (February low), before eventually meeting the mid-term critical support of 110.55 (Fibonacci 50% level on post-Trump rally). Offers are touted at 113.00/113.50 (50-day moving average).

Gold failed to consolidate gains above $1235 and retreated to $1227 in Asia. The sell-off could be temporary and the price pullback could see support at $1220 (50-day moving average), as the US yields remain subdued. The US 10-year yields consolidate below the 2.50% level, while the risk-off due to the G20 conclusions need to be further digested by global investors, especially given that the US political pictures becomes somewhat muddy.

According to the latest news, FBI Director Comey confirmed that the agency has been probing Russia on its possible intrusion in the 2016 election campaign and on probable ties with President Donald Trump.

The US stocks traded on the back foot on Monday. The S&P500 retreated by 0.20%, as the Dow Jones closed the day 0.04% softer. Financials (-0.76%) led losses in New York on the back of softer US yields. The US futures were marginally better bid in Asia, whereas the US dollar index (-0.12%) remained quiet.

The G10 currencies consolidated gains against the greenback at the beginning of the trading week, yet resisted to further gains.

The EURUSD remained capped below the 1.0782 (post-FOMC peak), losing the initial Fed-triggered momentum for an attempt to 1.0820/1.0830 (Fibonacci 50% level on post-Trump rally / 2017 resistance). As it appears, Ignazio Visco, a member of European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council, failed to turn the ECB hawks on by stating that the timing between the end of the Quantitative Easing (QE) and the rate tightening should be shorter than expected.

Euro markets remain focused on the upcoming French elections.

In France, the election worries eased after the pro-European candidate Emmanuel Macron convincingly fought back the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the presidential debate. Le Pen brought up a Trump-like, 35% tax suggestion on some imported products. It is possible that the similitude to broadly criticized Trump policies penalize Le Pen in her race to the presidential seat. The latter scenario would be euro supportive.

The bias on the EURUSD remains positive, however with decreasing likelihood of successfully fighting the 1.0820/1.0830 offers.The European stocks are set for a marginally positive open on hopes that Macron could make his way to the Elysée Palace.

In the UK, the GBPUSD shortly spiked above its 100-day moving average (1.2408) at this week’s open in London. Mean-reversion traders rapidly jumped in to reverse gains. Cable eased to 1.2335 on decent profit taking. Monday’s sharp rebound hints that the conviction in the pound remains limited before today’s inflation data.

The UK will release its February inflation figures at 9:30am London time. Analysts expect acceleration in the headline inflation to 2.1% year-on-year from 1.8% printed a month earlier. In a similar way, the core inflation may have accelerated to 1.7%y/y from 1.6% previously. A solid inflation report could confirm the MPC members’ worries regarding the rising inflationary pressures, boost the BoE hawks and push the GBPUSD to fresh three-week highs. In case of a softer read, the 100-dma should remain the major technical challenge. Technical indicators remain neutral before the data.

The FTSE tested the 7400p on the downside at Monday’s session. Further appreciation in the pound, combined to the global risk aversion and softer commodity prices, could pull the FTSE toward the 200, 100-day moving average range (7375/7280p). Mining stocks are expected to open under selling pressure in London, as copper cheapened 1.50% and nickel lost 0.88%.

Finally in Australia, the slightly hawkish comments in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes did little to sustain the AUD-bulls in Sydney. The RBA warned about the heating in the housing market, perhaps caused by the reflation trend. Nevertheless, the structural shift from the mining to the construction sector has been less efficient than desired over the past years.

Lately, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 5.9% from 5.7%; meanwhile the trading volumes with the US showed a significant decline. All in all, the RBA adopted a wait-and-see mode, kept the cash rate unchanged and reiterated that the actual accommodative policy is convenient for ‘sustainable growth […] and achieving the inflation target over time’.

The AUDUSD traded in the tight range of 0.7699/0.7737 in Sydney. We do not rule out the possibility of an extension toward the mid-term resistance zone of 0.7785/0.7800. The short-term support is seen at 0.7630/0.7609 (50-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on December – March rise).







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

The Market Wrap

on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:59 am
GBP rallies on faster UK inflation

The headline inflation in the UK accelerated by 2.3% year-on-year in February, faster than 2.1% as analysts expected. The core inflation advanced to 2.0%y/y versus 1.7% expected and 1.6% printed a month earlier.For the first time in three years, the UK’s inflation breached the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target, confirming the MPC’s worries regarding the rising inflationary pressures at last week’s monetary policy meeting.

As a kneejerk reaction, the GBPUSD traded at a fresh three-week high of 1.2462. The 100-day moving average (1.2408) is now expected to give support to the rising positive momentum for a likely test of the 1.25 level for the first time since February 23rd.

The FTSE sold off to 7409p on stronger pound. Further appreciation in the pound, combined to the global risk aversion and softer commodity prices, could keep the pressure on the UK stocks and encourage a negative retracement toward the 200, 100-day moving average range (7375/7280p).Mining stocks (-0.33%) open under selling pressure, as copper cheapened 1.50% and nickel lost 0.88%.


Macron revives hope, as Le Pen risks big on Trump-like rhetoric

The election worries in France eased after the pro-European candidate Emmanuel Macron convincingly fought back the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the presidential debate. Le Pen brought up a Trump-like, 35% tax suggestion on some imported products.

The first televised presidential debate may have been an eye-opener for many French voters. It is possible that the similitude to broadly criticized Trump policies penalize Le Pen in her race to the presidential seat. The latter scenario would be euro supportive.

The EURUSD tests the 1.0800 level. The key mid-term resistance is eyed at 1.0820/1.0830 (Fibonacci 50% level on post-Trump rally / 2017 resistance).

Moving into the first round of the French election due on April 23rd, the evolution of the French political platform will certainly remain the major driver of the euro markets.

The polls following the debate will be closely monitored and could cause significant price action in the euro; the volatility is expected to be two-sided. Any disapointment on the Macron camp could pull the euro lower.

The European stocks opened marginally positive on hopes that Macron could make his way to the Elysée Palace. CAC 40 gained 0.28% in Paris, while the DAX 30 quickly reversed gains on stronger euro.


US stocks to open higher on European optimism

The G10 currencies consolidated gains against the greenback at the beginning of the trading week, as the US 10-year yields remained below the 2.50% level.

The risk-off due to the G20 conclusions need to be further digested by global investors, especially given that the US political pictures becomes somewhat muddy.

According to the latest news, FBI Director Comey confirmed that the agency has been probing Russia on its possible intrusion in the 2016 election campaign and on probable ties with President Donald Trump.

The US stocks traded on the back foot on Monday. The S&P500 retreated by 0.20%, as the Dow Jones closed the day 0.04% softer. Financials (-0.76%) led losses in New York on the back of softer US yields.

The US futures were marginally better bid in Asia and in Europe; the appetite was mostly due to the French enchantment.The Dow Jones is called 40 points higher at $20945 at the US open.

RBA says trading volumes with the US decline significantly

The slightly hawkish comments in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes did little to sustain the AUD-bulls in Sydney. The RBA warned about the heating in the housing market, perhaps caused by the reflation trend. Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne more than doubled since 2009, as low rates encouraged households and investors to rush to the housing market; a situation which would require a tightening in the monetary conditions sooner rather than later.

Nevertheless, the structural shift from the mining to the construction sector has been less efficient than desired over the past years. Lately, the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 5.9% from 5.7%, keeping the RBA in a quite difficult position regarding its monetary policy.

In one hand, the Australia’s economy still needs a hand to support the economic recovery although the growth in the US, China, Japan and Europe has picked up recently and the reflation rally was reflected in improved commodity prices. The trading volumes with the US have declined significantly as a share of total global trade since the late 1990s’ cited the bank. In the light of the latest G20 communiqué, the declining trend may have only begun and as most of us fear, the protectionist measures would be damaging in the medium to long-term. Hence, the central bank needs to stay vigilant and supportive of the economy.

On the other hand, the overheating in the housing market requires a more orthodox stance. In worst case scenario, the RBA could opt for the settlement of macro-prudential measures as it has been the case in some of the G10 economies, including the UK and Switzerland.

All in all, the RBA adopted a wait-and-see mode, kept the cash rate unchanged and reiterated that the actual accommodative policy is convenient for ‘sustainable growth […] and achieving the inflation target over time’.

The AUDUSD has gathered enough momentum to test the mid-term resistance of 0.7785/0.7800. Above this level, the pair would need the carry traders to come back to the market. Hence, the US yield levels would be decisive whether the Aussie’s rise could extend beyond the 0.78 against the US dollar or traders would reverse their position to bet on a mean-reversion trading.  

Japan lacks appetite, yen starts the week on positive note in Japan

Japanese stocks started the week on a negative note. The G20 communiqué weighed on Japanese stocks at the beginning of the short trading week; Nikkei (-0.34%) and Topix (-0.16%) eased as the yen strengthened at the early trading hours.

The USDJPY extended losses to 112.27. The solid negative momentum suggests a deeper move toward the 111.60 (February low), before eventually meeting the mid-term critical support of 110.55 (Fibonacci 50% level on post-Trump rally). Offers are touted at 113.00/113.50 (50-day moving average).







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:24 pm

  • FTSE -42 points at 7336
  • DAX -72 points at 11890
  • CAC -24 points at 4978
  • Euro Stoxx -18 points at 3411


Dear Trader,

The US dollar consolidated losses against the yen, the euro and the pound; the Aussie (-0.35%) has been the biggest G10 loser against the greenback in Asia, as iron ore futures plunged by 4.87%.

Gold extended gains past $1245 yesterday for the first time in three weeks. The way is open for a further recovery toward the 200-day moving average, $1261. Dip buyers are touted at $1225/1220 (50-day moving average) as the US yields continue shifting lower.

The US 10-year yields are testing the 2.40% on the downside. The FOMC’s median forecast is now leaning toward two more rate hikes in 2017; in June and in December. Expectations are back to where they were at the beginning of 2017.

The US stocks recorded the worse session of 2017 on Tuesday. The S&P500 (-1.24%) and the Dow Jones (-1.14%) sold off, as financials (-2.38%) led losses on softer interest rate expectations. Bank of America plunged 5.8%, while JP Morgan and Wells Fargo lost 3% in New York. The sharp pullback in banking share prices is due to readjustment of the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations which were apparently pushed too far away from the reality on the run up to the March Fed meeting. The downside correction is certainly pulling the share prices closer to their fair value. Banking revenues are still expected to rise in 2017 as a result of higher rates, yet certainly less than investors projected prior to the FOMC meeting.

The USDJPY hit the 111.60 target (minor 23.6% retracement on January – February decline). Stronger trend and momentum indicators suggest a further drawback to the mid-term support of 110.55 (Fibonacci 50% level on post-Trump rally), before 110.00 mark comes back to focus.

Japanese stocks had a bad day in Tokyo. The Nikkei (-2.00%) and the Topix (-1.92%) sold off on stronger yen. Likewise, the sharp appreciation in the pound is taking its toll on the UK stock markets.

Cable rallied to 1.2494 on Tuesday, after the February inflation report revealed that the consumer prices rose by 2.3% year-on-year, much higher than 2.1% expected by analysts. This is the first time the UK’s inflation breached the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target in three years. Hence, the British policymakers’ worries regarding the rising inflationary pressures are funded and several MPC members could find it necessary to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. 

The hawkish shift in BoE expectations should keep the GBP-bulls in charge of the market. Technically, the 50-day moving average is diverging positively from the 100-day moving average (1.2407). Solid support is eyed pre-1.2400 against the greenback. Cable could extend gains toward 1.2565 (minor 76.4% retracement on February – March decline), before the critical 200-day moving average, 1.2610, which has not been tested since June 23rd, the Brexit referendum.

The FTSE 100 broke the 200-day moving average (7365p) and traded down to 7360p on Tuesday. Pound’s appreciation above the 1.25 against the US dollar could encourage a further decline toward 7280p (50-day moving average). The FTSE is called lower at London open on stronger pound and softer oil, commodity prices.

Copper futures are down by 0.74%, as the WTI (-0.35%) consolidates losses near $48 per barrel before the weekly EIA data release due later in the US. Analysts expect the US crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week. Solid inventories report could encourage a sell-off below the $47.50 level (March 13thlow), if broken, could pave the way toward $45/barrel for the first time since OPEC committed to cut production in November 2016.

Finally, the EURUSD is testing the 1.0820 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on post-Trump decline) on the upside. More resistance is eyed at 1.0830 (2017 resistance), yet improved trend and momentum indicators suggest a positive breakout to the 200-day moving average, 1.0853. Support is eyed at 1.0700/1.0715 area. Some of the latest French polls showed that Emmanuel Macron is now leading the presidential race, as his popularity rose to 26% following the first televised presidential debate.

The DAX (-0.75%) and the CAC (-0.19%) failed to consolidate gains on rising hopes that Macron could win the French presidential election. The euro strength has clearly been an important killjoy for the European stock traders. French and German stocks are set for a negative open. The DAX 30 is set to open below 11900 and the CAC 40 is expected to slip below the 5000 in Paris.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:48 pm
The Market Rundown

End of quarter makes traders shorter

It’s overly simplistic to lay the blame for the market decline at Donald Trump’s door. The first US rate hike this year, a slump in oil prices, the future of quantitative easing under higher inflation and end of quarter portfolio manoeuvring have played a part in markets changing course. Still the Trump Presidency, which has played such a large role in the rise in markets since November, is not to be ignored as a factor.
 
Probably the two biggest contributors to the idea that the world is reflating; a Trump-led fiscal boost and rising oil prices have come unstuck in the past fortnight. We have talked previously about the importance of Trump’s healthcare reform. The “Repeal and Replace” of Obamacare is a beta test for tax cuts. The universally agreed upon notion that ‘Obamacare is bad’ inside the Republican Party struggling to make headway in Congress is a bad omen for the trickier process of tax reform.
 
Stocks

The first 1%-plus decline in major US equity indices in over a hundred trading sessions has spread to Europe. Major European equity indices notched up a third day of declines. It must be a week where winning streaks get broken; first the England rugby team then US stock markets.
 
Banks led the decline in European stocks, matching a similar pattern in the US. The return to form of the banking sector since the US election has epitomised the reflation trade. With the reflation dynamic under scrutiny, banks stocks have been hit the most.
 
A shooting outside Westminster did little to calm nervous investors in the City of London. Its heavy weighting towards basic resources meant the FTSE 100 saw bigger declines than the rest of Europe as copper prices dropped nearly 2% on the day. Confusion over the introduction of new rules banning certain electronic devices on flights saw travel and leisure stocks loose altitude.
 
US stocks dipped again on the open, although the pace of declines slowed. The Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising slightly. Some investors are using the decline as an opportunity to load up on popular names including Apple and Netflix.

Currencies

A flight to safety in FX markets meant the US dollar was up against most major currencies bar the Japanese yen.
 
USD/JPY dropped below 111, a critical technical level which has held on three occasions since late November. While 100 offers round-number support, we suspect a bigger decline towards 109 and the 200 day-moving average.
 
GBP/USD slipped back on profit-taking after touching 1.25. Sterling is consolidating gains made after above-forecast inflation was reported on Tuesday. Whether Sterling extends its decline could depend on retail sales data released on Thursday. The recent trend in retail sales data has been that of disappointment, so signs of a turnaround would be especially well-received.
 
EUR/USD bounced back from early declines to retain 1.08. The euro benefitted as polls showed Emmanuel Macron extending his lead in the first round of the French presidential elections to 26% following a strong debate performance. Marine Le Pen on the other hand has seen support begin to wane as disenfranchised but more moderate voters gravitate towards Macron.

Commodities

Brent crude oil touched a fresh three-month low on Wednesday, dropping below $50 per barrel. A surprise 4.95M build in EIA crude oil inventories adds to the concern the supply glut could take longer to reverse. It took three days to unwind all of last week’s gain in the oil market. In Friday’s note we said “The pain may not be over quite yet. Questions over the size of and compliance to OPEC output cuts remain and are a headwind to further oil price gains.”
 
Gold has been the obvious beneficiary of the latest bout of uncertainty. The rise in the price of gold began March 15 when the Fed raised rates, pre-dating the stock sell-off this week. We said last week that gold refuses to lay down and die. We attribute gold’s durability to a duel benefit to investors holding it. Gold is a hedge against uncertainty but also does well during periods when interest rates look like staying lower for longer, typically when stocks do well too.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:39 pm
Markets sniffle over American Healthcare Act

Signs of life reappeared on Thursday when stocks got an afternoon pop and havens like gold and the Japanese yen pulled back from earlier gains.
   
The two percent retreat this week in the context of the epic rally that preceded it barely deservers the moniker of ‘caution.’ Still, the post US-election euphoria is visibly beginning to ebb. We view the Trump rally as a meaningful display of investor confidence but such extreme bullish sentiment means a consolidation is way overdue.
   
A lot of emphasis is being placed on the vote in the US Congress on the new Republican healthcare bill. At the moment the bill appears to hanging in the balance as conservatives bicker with themselves as to whether the ‘replacement’ does enough ‘repealing’. Whether the bill passes or fails on the first attempt, stocks have likely entered a correction phase anyway.
   
New details of the terrorist attack on London Bridge from Prime Minister Theresa May seemed to have had a negligible impact on typically sensitive areas of the market like travel and leisure sectors.
   
Next lifts the FTSE

Clothing retailers led gains on the FTSE 100 after investors took solace in unrevised forecasts from Next after it reported its first annual profit drop in 8 years. Lord Wolfson of Next appears acutely aware of the macro risks facing the clothing sector from shifting tastes towards ‘experience’ to higher input costs. Something Next is less keen to flag up is that its catalogue/online business faces a lot more competition these days. A pair trade in the retail sector going long Boohoo and short Next would have produced strong returns over the past year.
   
A rebound in UK retail sales in February coupled with a mix of broker upgrades and downgrades saw diverging fortunes amongst supermarkets with Tesco seeing gains while Sainsbury dropped into the red.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:46 pm

  • FTSE flat at 7340
  • DAX +2 points at 12042
  • CAC -8 points at 5025
  • Euro Stoxx -4 points at 3448


Dear Trader,

The US dollar pared losses against the G10 currencies as the critical health-care vote has been delayed in the US yesterday. President Donald Trump expects the deal to be validated on Friday. A validation would also grant Trump the credibility on his ability to pass through his fiscal policies, including tax reforms and large infrastructure spending. An eventual failure could letdown investors, yet it is worth noting that the major market focus is still on the US’ fiscal plans and the Trump administration could carry on with its expansive fiscal plans regardless of a disappointment on the health-care bill.

The US stocks closed the day slightly negative: S&P500 (-0.11%), Dow Jones (-0.02%) and NASDAQ (-0.07%).

The US 10-year yields held the ground above 2.40%. Trump-positive news would be supportive of the US dollar, the US yields and also the banking stocks across the global markets, given that a large fiscal spending in the US would mean a faster rate tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and could restore a smile on Fed hawks’ faces.

Gold traded down in Asia, after extending gains to $1253 yesterday. The momentum remains marginally positive, yet is clearly losing strength suggesting an eventual pullback to $1230/1224 (minor 23.6 % retracement on December – February rise / 50-day moving average). Improvement in the US yields could hinder the positive trend toward the 200-day moving average ($1260).

The yen is softer on weaker risk aversion. The USDJPY rebounded just above the critical support of 110.55 (50% level on post-Trump rally) on Thursday and consolidated gains above the 50-hour moving average (111.20) in Tokyo. Nikkei (+0.93%) and Topix (+0.88%) recorded their biggest rally in two weeks on softer yen.

Else, Asian stock markets portrayed a mixed session. Shanghai’s Composite (+0.59%) and Hang Seng Index (-0.25%) remained on the back foot before the US vote, while the Australia’s ASX 200 closed 0.80% higher on falling Aussie. Financials (+1.11%) and energy stocks (+1.28%) lead gains in Sydney.

Australian dollar extended losses to 0.7610 against the US dollar, as iron ore delivered to Qingdao (China) tanked to lowest levels since February. The AUDUSD slipped below the 50-day moving average (0.7630) and tested 0.7609 (minor 23.6% retracement on December – March recovery). Breaking this level could encourage a further slide to 0.7550 (200-day moving average).

In the Eurozone, the banks took 233.5 billion euro worth of free long-term loan from the European Central Bank (ECB) versus Bloomberg’s 110 billion medium estimate. This has been the largest take-up since the ECB launched the TLTRO (Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operation). The final TLTRO owed its success to growing anticipations that the ECB would start unwinding its ultra-expansive monetary policy at the end of 2017.

The EURUSD pared gains for the third consecutive day. The pair traded at 1.0760. The positive trend is fading and the pullback could extend to 1.0707 / 1.0660 (major 61.8% retracement on post-Trump decline / 50-day moving average).

Across the Channel, the GBPUSD rallied to 1.2530 on the back of solid retail sales data released yesterday. Higher inflation, solid retail sales, combined to several Bank of England (BoE) members’ concerns about keeping the bank rate at the current historical low level for a longer period of time should continue supporting the pound recovery. The GBPUSD could extend gains to 1.2565 (minor 76.4% retracement on February – March rise), before 1.2605 (200-day moving average).

The FTSE 100 stocks stood strong against the pound appreciation. The FTSE index held the ground above the 7300p level on Thursday’s session and is set for a flat open on Friday. Improved global risk appetite could encourage a recovery toward 7360p, the 200-day moving average, before the weekly closing bell. Support is eyed at 7300p (weekly support).







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:58 pm
Week Ahead: Article 50, OPEC & Trumpcare

Last week saw the beginnings of what could be a bigger correction in equity markets as investors showed some long-awaited uncertainty about the Trump policy agenda. The difficulty of ‘repealing and replacing’ Obamacare has investors worried about Trump’s ability to pass tax reform and infrastructure spending bills later, a major reason behind the excitement in markets post-election.  
 
This weekend’s meeting from OPEC will be important for the future direction of the oil price. The triggering of Article 50 will be a big moment for GBPUSD, EU inflation data could determine whether EURUSD breaks 1.08 and the latest GDP stats from the US and UK will be important for confidence in global growth.
Watch this video for a closer look at next week's events.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:18 pm
Global stocks decline, USD pare gains

Lack of appetite in mining and energy stocks combined to stronger pound weighed on the FTSE stocks (-0.89%) at the weekly open in London. The FTSE 100 broke the 50-day moving average (7275p) on the downside. The acceleration in the sell-off could encourage a deeper correction to 7225p (minor 23.6% retracement on Trump rally) before 7191p (February 23th dip).

PM Theresa May will trigger the Article 50 on Wednesday, which will officially start the Britain’s exiting process from the European Union. Given that the Brexit is already fully priced in the pound’s value, the GBP-crosses are expected to move on the back of domestically and internationally developing stories, such as the potential reversal of the US reflation trade, the retracement in the US dollar and  the hawkish shift in the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy expectations.

The GBPUSD is trending toward the 1.2565 (minor 76.4% retracement on February – March retreat), then 1.2600 (200-day moving average).


Bunds rally on Merkel victory, Le Pen’s comments overlooked

German Chancellor Angela Merkel secured her biggest victory in thirteen years in Saarland regional vote. Merkel strengthened her position before the German federal election due on September 24th. German bund yields spiked down at the open in Frankfurt, as investors rushed into the German sovereign papers on Merkel hopes.

In France, the odds for Le Pen victory declined to 25% according to the latest Bloomberg survey. In her latest speech, the far-right Front National’s leader Marine Le Pen claimed that the ‘EU will die’. In an attempt to reassure her voters, she said that an eventual euro exit would not be chaotic for France. The latter scenario is considered as a tail-risk by the global markets and is being priced to a very tight extent across the board.

The EURUSD tested the 200-day moving average (1.0850). Solid positive momentum hints at a further upside potential toward 1.0932 (major 61.8% retracement on post-Trump rally) before the 1.10 mark.
The euro strength encouraged a downside correction in the European stock markets. The DAX slipped below the €12'000 level in Frankfurt. The 50-day moving average, €11’835, will be the critical battle field between the mid-term longs and shorts.


US reflation rally reverses, US dollar, yields and stocks under pressure

The US dollar started the week weaker against all of its G10 counterparts. Donald Trump’s defeat over the health-care replacement plan dented investors’ appetite in the ‘reflation’ trading theme. The US 10-year yields broke below 2.40%, as the DXY (the US dollar index) returned back to the pre-US election levels.  

The US stock futures traded in the red in Asia. The Dow Jones (-0.53%), NASDAQ (-0.72%) and the S&P500 futures (-0.73%) hint at a melancholic open in the US on increasing worries regarding President Trump’s ability to realize massive fiscal reforms as promised.  

The Dow Jones Industrial index lost over the four out of the five past trading sessions last week. As it appears, the downside correction in the US stocks could intensify. The recent pullback raised several questions on whether the Trump reflation rally is over and what is the potential of a further drop.

The Dow Jones rolling index retreated below the 50-day moving average $20’490 for the first time under Trump’s presidency. The Dow is expected to gap-open 124 points lower at $20472 in New York.

The next important technical level is eyed at $20’293, the minor 23.6% retracement on November 9th to February 28th rally. Breaking this level would pave the way for the critical psychological level of $20’000.


USDJPY’s journey to 110

Among the G10 currencies, the yen (+0.92%) gained the most against the greenback. The USDJPY extended losses to 110.15, after taking out the 110.55 Fibonacci 50% support on post-Trump rally. As such, the US dollar gave back half of gains accumulated during the ‘reflation’ rally against the yen. As we are moving toward the fiscal year end in Japan, it could be just a matter of time before the $110.00 is breached.


Gold traders focus on 200-dma

Gold extended gains to $1259, just shy of the closely monitored $1260 level, the 200-day moving average. The retracement in the US yield curve is supportive of a positive breakout above $1260 for a further rise to $1280/1300.  

Oil unchanged on OPEC, Russia get-together

The unscheduled OPEC meeting over the weekend did little to cheer up the bulls in the oil market. Oil producer countries announced to stick to their plan to reduce production and highlighted that the recent price drop was due to the high inventory levels, not to a failure in compliance. It has been said that it may take longer than previous anticipated draining the global supply glut. The production cuts could be extended up to 6 months, according to some producer countries. Unfortunately, the issue is more complex given that all global players are not up to the same speed. We remind that the sell-off in the oil markets was triggered by record high levels of US oil inventories, which are not meant to fade under the Trump administration, which is longing for less energy dependency for the US.

The barrel of WTI traded between $47.75/48.28. Trend and momentum indicators point at a comfortably short market stabilizing within the $47/50 range. A negative breakout should bring the $45 in radar, while a positive getaway should suggest a short-term bullish reversal with solid resistance pre-$55.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:37 pm
Week Ahead: Nonfarm payrolls & dip-buying

Hello, welcome to LCG’s look ahead to the key events in markets for the week starting April 3rd, 2017. The video edition will return next week, and in a new location!

Stock markets are consolidating near recent peaks and the big question is whether the ‘Trump Slump’ will pick up steam again, sending stocks lower. Article 50 was finally triggered last week and all eyes are on the pound for how it will handle the inevitable ups and downs of the negotiations.

Oil prices rebounded last week with OPEC seemingly managing to convince investors that compliance with output cuts has improved in March.

One month chart comparing EURUSD with GBPUSD and EURGBP


Read the full article for a closer look at next week's events.







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:17 pm

  • FTSE +25 points at 7347
  • DAX +68 points at 12,380
  • CAC +13 points at 5135


Dear Trader,

European markets look set for a positive open on Monday with little in the way of movement in currencies in the Asian trading session. A mixed bag of Australian economic data left the Aussie dollar lower by 0.25%.

Stocks finished slightly downbeat last week. The big question on every trader's mind will be whether the sell-off from two weeks ago will begin to pick up steam again this week. An absence of major economic and political events is often when markets are able to move most freely.

The main data focus for today will be manufacturing PMIs out of the UK and Europe. Sterling traders will be look for any signs that the weaker currency has helped manufacturing at a time when other parts of the UK economy have started to slow.

Read the full article







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

Re: Market Research

on Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:01 am

  • FTSE +15 points at 7337
  • DAX +3 points at 12285
  • CAC +4 points at 5105
  • Euro Stoxx +4 points at 3485


Dear Trader,

The US dollar index consolidated near its 50-day average before the release of ADP employment data and the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) March meeting minutes due later in the day. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the interest rates by 25 basis points at the March meeting and investors qualified the Fed action as a ‘dovish hike’ on the back of the Fed’s accompanying statement. However, soon after the interest rate hike, several FOMC members voiced hawkish comments, mentioning the possibility of two or three additional rate hikes in 2017.

The Fed minutes are expected to give some clarity to confused investors. The US 10-year yields tested the 2.30% level on the downside, sending the gold higher to its 200-day moving average for the second time in two weeks. Offers are sheltered at $1260, yet heavy US yields could encourage further capital inflows into the yellow metal and underpin a recovery toward $1280. SPDR Gold shares, the world’s biggest gold ETF, benefits from light inflows to challenge the $120 resistance.

Of course, the Fed hawks need the economic data to be supportive for a steeper rate normalization path in the US. This week’s labour data could give a fresh direction to the US dollar and the yield curve.

The US ADP report is due today. According to analyst expectations, the US economy may have added 184’000 new private jobs in March, versus 298’000 printed a month earlier. The nonfarm payrolls data is due on Friday; the consensus is 174’000 versus 235’000 in February. Given the weak expectations, there is room for a positive surprise.

Therefore the Fed hawks are expected to remain alert into the labour data and the minutes.

The USDJPY continues weighing on the 110 mark on the back of softer US yields. Nikkei (+0.31%) and Topix (+0.06%) saw limited demand in Tokyo. Gains came in toward the end of the session.

Chinese stocks opened mixed after two-day bank holiday. Hang Seng (-0.17%) and Shanghai’s Composite (+1.38%) diverged as the US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are preparing for their first face-to-face meeting scheduled on Thursday. Discussions could be tense between the two leaders, especially given Donald Trump’s unenthusiastic take against China.

The AUDUSD had a positive session in Sydney following five consecutive days of losses. The AUD-bears are willing to break the 200-day moving average (0.7552) support, before attempting to 0.7490 (March low).  

The EURUSD rebounded from 1.0635, after trading a stone’s throw higher than the 100-day moving average (1.0622). The French election polls suggest that Emmanuel Macron could win against the far-right, anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen at the second and final round of the presidential election. As such, the French election worries do not currently weigh on the euro. The short-term resistance is presumed at 1.0700 (50% retracement on March rise), if surpassed, could encourage a further recovery toward 1.0750 (38.2% retracement). The Eurozone services PMI data is not expected to hide any surprises; the action on the USD market should determine whether the EURUSD could consolidate and extend gains.

The 100-day moving average, 1.2410, continues lending support to Cable despite the Brexit volatility and traders’ reluctance to purchase the pound in the middle of the EU/UK shenanigans. From a technical perspective, daily trend and momentum indicators remain positive; suggesting that dip-buyers could continue seeing opportunity in dips pre-100-day moving average. 

The UK PMI services data is due at 09:30 London time. Analyst expectations are slightly optimistic; 53.5 versus 53.3 printed previously. A solid read could underpin the GBP-bulls and encourage a recovery to 1.2496 (minor 23.6% retracement on March rise), before the critical 200-day moving average, 1.2570, comes back in the radar. Below 1.2410, the GBPUSD should face the critical mid-term support at 1.2360 (50% retracement).

The EURGBP trades in the green for the third consecutive session. The cross is currently testing 0.8590/0.8596 (50-day moving average / 50% retracement on February-March rise) on the upside, if surpassed, should encourage a further rise to 200-day moving average, 0.8615.

The FTSE futures (+0.21%) traded upbeat in Asia, on the back of the recovery in oil and commodity prices. Copper futures gained 1.23%.

The barrel of WTI extended gains to $51.40, 100-day moving average, as the American Petroleum Institute announced that the US stockpiles decreased by 183000 barrel over the past week. The EIA report is due later in the session and is expected to print a decline as well.

Firmer oil and commodity prices hint at a slightly positive open in London. European stock markets are set for a flat open.

Read the full article







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
avatar
Broj poruka : 36
Points : 179
Date of Entry : 2017-03-08
Godina : 47
View user profilehttp://bit.ly/2mGvVJ4

The Market Rundown

on Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:08 pm
A slightly off-kilter French presidential debate performance from Marine Le Pen has lessened a little more of the political tension across markets.
 
The French CAC index outshined the German DAX. Investors appear to be pre-empting the French election result, taking on a little more exposure in France at the expense of “safer” German assets. Voters like Le Pen’s clear policy message but are worried on the issue of the euro. Undecided French voters face the unenviable choice of protesting a corrupt establishment or putting their euro-denominated savings at risk.
 
The mining sector tracked a rise in the price of copper while bank stocks reacted positively to strong economic data to lead the FTSE 100 higher. Lloyd’s shares underperformed bank peers after it announced the closure of 100 high street branches.
 
Wall Street watching Trump and Xi

Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday with the Dow Jones breaking out to a 2-week high. A surprise jump in US private sector job growth reignited the reflation trade while the $7.6bn acquisition of Panera Bread by JAB Holding added to the optimism.
 
A little apprehension before Federal Reserve minutes and the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi capped some of the enthusiasm. The assumption seems to be that Trump will toe the line for President Xi. This seems like a big assumption. Confronting German Chancellor Merkel over Germany’s NATO contributions is not the action of a man who kowtows to foreign leaders.
 
Trump has openly labelled China a currency manipulator so his position is clear. The open questions are whether Trump follows through on his rhetoric, and if he does how China adjusts. Neither of these will be answered this week.
 
Aussie in crosshairs of trade war

Sterling erased the previous day’s losses after service-sector data saw an upside surprise. The Services PMI for March rose to a three month high after a five-month low in February. The bounce back in services despite signs of higher prices is comforting after disappointing data on Monday showed the Sterling-inspired jump in manufacturing hasn’t quite taken hold just yet.
 
The US dollar rose on Wednesday after private payrolls grew faster than expected but a slowdown in the service sector took the edge off before the release of Federal Reserve minutes. Fed speakers have been quite transparent since March about the number of rate hikes expected this year. The unanswered questions relating to the minutes relate to the balance sheet. We doubt the minutes will give any details on how or when the Fed could shrink its balance sheet.
 
Politics were probably a positive influence on the euro after the French presidential debate but positive surprises in UK and US economic data saw it decline against the pound and the dollar.
 
The Australian dollar could be one to watch during the Trump-Xi meeting. Anything that threatens the Chinese economy almost always prompts a negative reaction in the Aussie. The last thing Australia needs is the world’s superpower picking a fight with its biggest customer.
 
Cyclone Copper and oil nears $55

Copper prices jumped on concern of disruption to mining in Australia from a cyclone as Chinese traders returned after a long holiday weekend.
 
A rise in the price of copper seems to show investors comfortable there will be no Trump-Xi showdown. If one makes the natural assumption that a trade war is bad for the Chinese economy, then the price of copper, which is heavily consumed in China, should fall if US-China tensions escalate.
 
Brent crude neared $55 per barrel as sentiment continued to improve in oil markets. Last Thursday we said “Given the velocity of the oil price slump three weeks ago, if sentiment has turned, the recovery could be equally fast. $55 per barrel in Brent would be a natural upside objective for oil bulls.” The declines three weeks ago were akin to releasing the pressure valve. Oil bulls are returning now the steam has been let off.

Read the full article







Risk Warning:
CFD trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
View previous topicBack to topView next topic
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum