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FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:43 pm
All Eyes on the First-Round Voting of the French Election
04.21.2017

The first round voting of the French election will be held this Sunday April 23. The market consensus is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen would likely get into the second round, then Macron would likely win the final vote.

The most embarrassing situation is that the far-right wing Le Pen and the far-left wing Mélenchon both get into the second round, which will likely result in further rallies of safe havens (such as gold, the yen and the Swiss franc), lower European stocks and a falling Euro.

Be aware that if the result of the first-round surprises the markets, especially if the far-right wing Le Pen’s share of vote sees a large increase, it will likely push safe havens further up. Conversely, if Le Pen and Melenchon lose, no matter who is the victor out of Macron or Fillion, the Euro and European stocks will likely rally as market concerns over the collapse of the EU would be relieved.

Non-voting share and undecided voters are likely to play decisive roles in the French presidential election. The IFOP polls showed there are about 31% non-voting and 28% undecided voters. The candidates have been trying to win undecided voters’ supports in the final sprint of the race.

The independent centrist candidate Macron is in favour of free trade and the integrity of the EU. HIs measures aim to change the country’s long-standing bureaucracy and excessive government control to revive the sluggish economic performance. Macron’s policies will likely effectively reduce the number of unemployed, increase investments and save a large amount of spending which could be used on improving economic growth.

Fillion and Macron’s policies have some similarities. Fillion has lost supports by many neutral voters due to the fake parliamentary job scandal. However, he has a large committed Catholic voter base accounts for 79% of his supporters.

Although Macron is the top candidate, he doesn’t have a large committed voter base comparing to Le Pen and Fillion. Macron and Mélenchon are the two candidates among the four with the highest share of undecided voters (60% for Macron and 47% for Mélenchon). The bigger the nonvoting share, the more adverse to the two candidates. Consequently, it will increase the probability for Le Pen and Fillion to win, as they have larger committed voter bases.

The US Treasury Secretary Munichin stated yesterday that the Trump administration plans to release a major tax reform proposal very soon, Regardless of the failure of the healthcare bill, they will make the tax reform done. After his statement, the dollar index nudged up, touching a 2-day high of 99.75. It is inspiring to see the Trump administration is trying to show the markets determination and leadership. However, it will still need the Congress’ approval to pass the bill. It is not impossible the same hurdle for the healthcare bill to reoccur.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:04 pm
Global Equities Up, Oil & Yen Weaken
04.25.2017

Following the somewhat centrist victory in the first round of the French Presidential Elections global markets appear to be have gained some risk appetite back with Asian equities reaching a near 2 year high on Tuesday. The election also helped lift EUR and put downward pressure on safe-haven instruments. It is therefore likely that European equities will have a strong start this morning.

French Polls show Emmanuel Macron defeating anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen by as much as 30 percentage points in the second round of the French presidential election on May 7th.

Markets are likely to see additional impetus with President Trump promising an announcement on US Tax Reforms on Wednesday.

EUR was holding steady at $1.0885, retaining most of Monday’s 1.3 percent gain where EUR posted its strongest one-day performance in nearly a year; lifting EUR to a near 6 month high.

EUR gains had weighed on the dollar index, which touched a four-week low overnight. The index was marginally higher at 99.134, failing to make up most of Monday’s 0.9 percent loss.

USD advanced 0.4 percent to 110.32 JPY extending Monday’s 0.5 percent jump as investors sold off the “safe-haven” JPY.

Oil recovered marginally, following a week of losses, although gains were restricted by concerns that purported output cuts may not affect the current oversupply in global markets.

Gold recovered from last week’s lows of 7095 trading up to 1278.06 in early trading before retracing back to 1270.28.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:31 pm
Will US Q1 GDP Growth Show a Slowdown ?.

by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst


There are two crucial GDP figures to be released today; UK Q1 GDP initial reading will be released at 09:30 BST, followed by the and US Q1 GDP annualized initial reading, Q1 PCE and Q1 core PCE inflation figures (QoQ) at 13:30 BST.

This will be the first US GDP figure reported after Trump took office. Presently the US economic condition remain sound – whereas, per the Q4 GDP annualized final reading, we saw 2.1% growth showing a slowdown compared to a 3.5% growth in Q3. Market expectations for the upcoming Q1 GDP initial reading is 1.3%, which is lower than a 2.1% growth in Q4.

Growth around 2% is still sound however it shows a slowdown compared to the robust economic expansion over past decades. The reason for the recent slowdown is partially because of reduced consumer spending (especially on automobiles) caused by delayed tax returns and a warm winter. I addition; decreased corporate investment and government spending (Trump froze federal hiring recently) will also weigh on Q1 GDP growth.
However, the global economy is seeing a gradual recovery. The weakening of USD since the beginning of the year has boosted overseas demand for US products and US exports. In addition, the US job market is close to full employment which also provides Q1 GDP some support.

The US economic cycle is typically sluggish during the winter months then starts to see a revival in spring and summer. Therefore, the Q2 and Q3 GDP readings will likely see a better performance.
The dollar index saw a rebound over the past two days after hitting the lowest level of 98.55 since November 11. The current price is trading below the significant psychological level at 99.00.

Per the CME’s FedWatch tool the current probability for a rate hike in June is 67.6%. If the US Q1 GDP reading beats expectations, then we can expect an increase in the probability and further support to USD. Conversely, if Q1 GDP underperforms, it will likely weigh on USD and lower the probability of a rate hike in June.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Wed May 03, 2017 11:17 am
Fed Expected to Keep Rates Steady in May
by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst


Eurozone Q1 GDP initial readings (YoY and QoQ) will be released at 10:00 BST today, followed by the US Markit Services and Composite PMIs (Apr) at 14:45 BST, the US non-manufacturing PMI (Apr) at 15:00 BST and the FOMC interest rate decision at 19:00 BST.

The crucial US non-manufacturing PMI and manufacturing PMI have been above 50.0 for some time: Non-Manufacturing PMI since February 2010 and Manufacturing PMI since March 2016. Despite the recent moderate slowdown in manufacturing sector the figure indicates that both the US service and manufacturing sectors saw continuous expansions.

The FOMC meeting will be held this evening at 19:00 BST. Per the Fed’s “gradual pace of rate hikes” markets are expecting the Fed to raise rates in June, instead of May, since the Fed just raised rates in March.

It is reported that Fed Chair Yellen is not due to hold a press conference today and there will, therefore, not be any economic forecast provided. The only focus on the meeting will be whether there are any hints in the monetary policy statement about prospective shrinking of its balance sheet. During the past 10 years, the Fed has added its balance sheet over $4.5 trillion in bonds. The Fed needs to see a stable upswing in economic growth and inflation before unwinding its balance sheet.

Today's important market news

However, the recent US economic data has been weak, such as the non-farm payroll in March, the Q1 GDP and auto sales etc. which makes a rate hike even more unlikely this month. Per the CME’s FedWatch tool the probability for a rate hike in May is just 4.8% whereas for June it is 67.4%.

Recently several Fed officials are forecasting two more rate hikes by the end of this year. Markets are expecting one in June and one in September. The recent soft US data has not yet reduced the probability of a rate hike in June. However, if the upcoming data keeps on underperforming, it will put more stress on the Fed to raise rates.


With a possibility of a shrinking balance sheet in today’s statement, USD is likely to rise. The dollar index will likely recover from the significant resistance level established at 99.00. Conversely, if it is not mentioned in the statement, we can expect that the market will not have a big reaction to it, as it will be just in line with market expectations to keep rates on hold.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Fri May 05, 2017 7:07 pm
Markets Await French Election Result
by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst

The second-round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday May 7.

Per the latest IFOP (French Institute of Public Opinion) projections; Macron has 60.93% share of votes whereas Le Pen has 39.07%. Macron inherited 43% of Fillion’s, 70% of Hamon’s and 50% of Melenchon’s voters. Le Pen inherited 31% of Fillion’s, 3% of Hamon’s and 12% of Melenchon’s voters.

EUR has strengthened as markets expect Macron to win the final vote. This is based on Macron’s large lead of at least 20 points in the major polls after the first round of the election.

During the early European session today EUR/USD hit a high of 1.0989, last seen November 9 of 2016 and EUR/JPY hit a high of 123.66, last seen on January 9. On Thursday, the France CAC 40 index hit a 2-week high of 5384.96. The DAX index also hit a record high of 12657.16

During a TV debate on May 3, Le Pen condemned Macron’s policies with a lack of national security enhancement. He is regarded as being soft toward Islamic terrorism and beholden to large business interests. She claims that she will expel foreigners on a terrorist watch list.

If Macron wins, it will likely push EUR and European stocks further up. Conversely, if Le Pen wins, it will trigger risk-off sentiment and market concerns over the collapse of the EU, which will result in a slump in EUR and European stocks, causing a rebound in gold and silver prices.

Be aware that, the result will likely cause big volatility in the market. Market prices will likely open with slippages, which will result in stop losses being triggered with market prices instead of pre-set prices during early Asian session on Monday May 8.

The crucial US labour market data for April will be released this afternoon, at 13:30 BST. It includes non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Please note that the release of US labour market data will likely cause volatility for USD, USD crosses and commodities.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Mon May 08, 2017 9:03 pm

Macron Wins French Election With Landslide Victory

by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst

Macron won the final battle of the French presidential election which was in line with market expectations. He has become the youngest president in the French history.

Notably, Macron got 66.06% of the votes, largely surpassing his opponent Le Pen’s 33.94% outperforming the 20% lead poll projections.

The voting ratio was 65.3%, which was lowest compared to the past three presidential elections; 71.96% in 2012, 75.11% in 2007 and 67.62% in 2002.
Macron received a higher share of votes in big cities such as Paris and Marseille whilst Le Pen received a higher share of votes in the suburbs.

Le Pen’s extreme stance and policies, such as anti-globalization, anti-immigrants, trade protectionism and making France leave the EU, will likely lead France’s direction back toward conservativism and enclosure.

Conversely, Macron’s policies aim to change the country’s long-standing bureaucracy and excessive government control to revive the sluggish French economic performance. The outright victory of the independent centrist Macron indicates that French citizens aspire for change and variety.

Macron’s victory has eased market concerns over France’s leaving the EU and the collapse of the EU, pushing EUR and Europeans stocks further up.

During the early Asian session on Monday, EUR/USD hit a 6-month high of 1.1021. EUR/JPY hit a high of 124.49, last seen May 12 of 2016. Spot gold hit a low of 1220.77, last seen March 17. However, EUR and European stocks saw a retracement during early European session due to profit taking pressure.

Macon now must face severe challenges such as high unemployment rate, low economic growth and immigration issue.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Tue May 16, 2017 12:22 pm

Push & Pull: USD Pressure & EUR Strength


by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst

The Asian session saw equities climb to a fresh-two year high early on Tuesday on the back of an overnight rise in Wall Street fueled by reports that President Trump had disclosed classified information with the Russian Foreign Minister without necessary authorization from the source. This re-fueled the continued underlying uncertainties and reinforced doubts surrounding the Administration’s economic agenda. Oil continued extending extended gains following a pledge from the major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to push for an extension of supply cuts into 2018.

EURUSD has broken the psychological 1.1000 level as a result of the likelihood of a shift in Eurozone economic policy for the second half of 2017. ECB Chief Economist Praet commented “that the balances of risk would be assessed at the June meeting”. However, he also stated that “the central bank would need to be very careful over removing policy accommodation”.

The dollar index continued lower trading around 98.55 with May’s low of 98.50 forming a slight support area. Per the latest CME Fedwatch; the expectations of a rate increase in June is now at a 73.8% probability compared to 84% last week.
With a degree of “risk-on” sentiment gold has seen a slight rise from early May lows of $1214 to trade just above $1234.

Today sees the release of UK CPI at 9:30 BST; forecast at 2.6% from the last release of 2.3% and US Housing Starts at 13:30 BST; expecting a minimal gain from the previous release.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Wed May 17, 2017 3:06 pm

USD Hit Post Election Low on Trump’s Russia Leak Scandal


by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst


It was widely reported that President Trump shared highly sensitive information with the Russia Ambassador at a recent meeting at the White House putting further pressure on USD. During today’s early European session the dollar index hit the lowest level of 97.74 last seen back in November 2016, EUR/USD traded as high as 1.1121 a level last seen back in November 2016. In line with the continued weakness in USD, spot gold had a fifth day of gains trading at a 2-week high of 1244.91.

To date the dollar index has almost given up all of the post presidential election rally, retracing about 1.4% over the past 4 trading sessions. Per CFTC data (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), Hedge funds’ USD long positions have reduced to the lowest level since August 2016.

Japanese Q1 GDP first reading will be released at 00:50 BST on Thursday. The Japanese economy has seen a recovery since last year. The global economy also saw a recovery, helping exports. However, as inflation has not yet seen a stable upswing the Japanese economic recovery is still fragile. The performance of the Q1 GDP will likely affect JPY and the JPY crosses.

USD/JPY has retraced in the past week as a result of the weakening of USD. USD/JPY hit a 1-week low of 112.24 on Wednesday during early European session.

There are two upcoming events that will likely affect oil markets; firstly, the Iran presidential election will be held this Friday, May 19th and secondly the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25. The result of the Iran presidential election and the associated geo-political risks will likely affect its oil supply. Iran has greatly increased its oil output after the US sanction was removed.

The US shale oil industry has seen a marked recovery since February last year because of higher oil prices. The US Baker Hughes data (that records the number of new Oil Rigs) is showing additional Rigs added every week. The increase in shale oil supply has offset OPEC’s recent output cut effort to an extent.

However, the Saudi Arabia Oil Minister, Khalid al-Falih, stated on May 8th at the Asia Oil and Gas Conference in Malaysia that “the output cut could be extended another 6 months or even further into 2018”. OPEC will hold a meeting in Vienna on May 25 where the decision whether to extend the output cut agreement will likely be announced.

Oil prices have retraced substantially around 12.88% since April 12th and have experienced a 3.74% rebound since May 5th. Last Wednesday’s EIA crude oil inventory data saw a drop of 5.247 million barrels hitting the lowest level this year helping push oil prices higher.

WTI and Brent crude oil will likely see selling pressure at $50 and $53 respectively. The US EIA Crude Oil Inventories data (for the week ending May 12) will be released at 15:30 BST this afternoon. Please be advised that this release is likely to cause significant volatility in oil prices.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Fri May 26, 2017 11:48 am
Oil Slumped Post OPEC Extension Announcement
by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst

On Thursday, OPEC announced that the existing output cut agreement will be extended for an additional 9 months, which was in line with market expectations.

However, the scale of output cut remains the same at 1.8 million barrels a day. Besides, no new OPEC member states will join the agreement extension. In addition, the market witnessed some profit-taking pressure which weighed on oil prices resulting in a drop of 5%.

On early Friday morning, WTI spot and Brent crude spot hit a 2-week low of 48.31 and 51.17 respectively before retracing higher.

The next meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers is schedule 30 November.

OPEC member states, Iran, Libya, and Nigeria are still exempted from the output cut agreement and have been increasing their production. Some non-OPEC oil producers, such as Russia and Kazakhstan have also attempted to boost their production.

The US shale oil industry has seen a marked recovery since February last year due to the rebound in oil prices. The US Baker Hughes data (that records the number of new Oil Rigs) is showing additional Rigs added every week.

In general, the oil supply remains high which has, and will, offset OPEC’s output cut effort to an extent. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure.

On early Friday morning, we have seen USD weakening with the dollar index currently testing the support line at 97.00.

US durable goods, core durable goods (Apr) and Q1 GDP second reading will be released at 13:30 BST this afternoon. The first Q1 GDP reading indicated a mere 0.7% growth, which was the slowest growth in three years. If we see a higher second reading, it will likely provide USD support.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:39 pm
Latest Election Forecasts Weigh on GBP Prospect

by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst

Per the latest ‘poll of polls’ released yesterday May 31, conducted by the Press Association based on a 7-day rolling average of all published polls, approval ratings for the Conservative and Labour Parties are 44% and 35% respectively. The Conservatives’ lead is 9% which is higher than the previous shocking low 5% lead.

Currently the breakdown of the 650 seats in the House of Commons are: The Conservative Party has 330 seats, the Labour Party has 229 seats, the SNP has 54 seats, the Liberal Democrats has 9 seats and “other” parties have 28 seats.

Notably, per the latest prediction conducted by YouGov, the Conservative Party will likely win 310 seats, Labour 257, SNP 50 and the Liberal Democrats 10. That said, it is likely that none of the parties will win more than half of the 650 seats, which is at least 326 seats.

The reason behind the snap election decision was to increase the Conservatives’ dominance in Parliament. However, now it looks ironic that the Conservatives will likely have 20 seats less than their present 330 after the election, and Labour will likely gain nearly 30 seats.

If the YouGov’s prediction is correct Theresa May might face the crisis of stepping down which would likely result in a GBP sell-off. The Conservative Party now must do the final sprint before June 8th to win 16 seats more (326 – 310) for a modest victory.

If none of the parties win more than half of the seats, then it will result in a Hung Parliament. In this situation, the majority party must consider whether to remain as a narrow majority or to unite with other smaller parties. After the 2010 general election, the Conservative Party chose to unite with the Liberal Democrats.

On Wednesday, GBP/USD weakened and tested the significant support line at 1.2800 again, hitting a 5-week low of 1.2768. It was followed by a robust rebound, testing the near term major resistance level at 1.2900, hitting a 3-day high of 1.2920, then corrected by around 80 points. In early trading on Thursday June 1st. GBP/USD is at 1.2875. Be aware that before the election outcome is released increased uncertainty will likely pose downward pressure to GBP.

US Pending home sales (YoY) released yesterday saw a 3.3% drop in April from a 0.8% growth in March, marking the biggest drop since June 2014. After the release of the data, USD weakened across the board.

The dollar index hit a 1-week low of 96.78, marking a 0.35% intra-day fall. USD/JPY hit a 2-week low of 110.47. The weakening of USD pushed gold up, spot gold rallied 0.46%, hitting a 5-week high of 1274. EUR/USD rallied 0.5%, hitting a 1-week high of 1.1255. GBP/USD hit a 3-day high of 1.2920. USD rebounded in US afternoon session. On Thursday in early European session, the dollar index bounces and tests the 97.00 resistance level.

The crucial US ISM manufacturing PMI for May will be released this afternoon at 15:00 BST. It has remained above 50 since October 2016, however, seeing a falling trend over the past three months. Be aware that it will likely cause volatility for USD and USD crosses.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:47 am
Risk-off Sentiment Lifts Safe Havens

by Devata Tseng, Technical Analyst


Safe havens (precious metals, JPY, CHF) have strengthened across the board as the recent risk events have lifted markets’ risk off sentiment. Notably the London terror attack, gulf states cut diplomatic ties with Qatar, and the upcoming UK general election.

On Tuesday, June 6th, spot gold rallied 0.8%, hitting a high of $1289.55, last seen on April 19. JPY gained 0.8% to the USD with USD/JPY hitting a low of 109.55, last seen on April 21st. As a result USD/JPY broke the significant support line at 110.00 for the first time since the end of April. JPY gained 0.87% to the EUR with EUR/JPY hitting a 1-week low of 123.21.

US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May was released yesterday at 56.9, lower than the expectations of 57.00 and the previous figure of 57.50. On Tuesday, June 6th, in early European session, the dollar index hit a new post US presidential election low of 96.47. It saw a subsequent rebound currently trading around 96.65.

The latest poll conducted by Guardian/ICM released on Monday June 5th, shows the Conservatives Party’s lead of 11%. The breakdown of the approval rating is: Tory 45%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8% & UKIP 5%. The release of the poll has provided some support to GBP. GBP/USD hit a 1-and-a-half-week high of 1.2949 on Tuesday morning during early European session.

Recent polls conducted by different institutions have shown various outcomes. Although the Conservative Party still has a lead over all parties, this lead ranges from 1% to 11%. The “poll of polls” released on May 31, showed the Tory’s lead at 9%, which appears to be a more objective figure, as the calculation was based on an average of all recent polls.

The Conservative Party is still expected to win the election; however, the victory seems to be less certain now. It would be surprising, although, not impossible for the Labour Party to win the final victory. Per YouGov’s seats forecasts released the end of May the Conservative Party might keep a narrow majority even after the election. In this situation, potential hurdles and disagreements from other parties over Brexit issues are foreseeable, which will likely result in the impending 2-year Brexit negotiation process being difficult and weighing on GBP’s prospects.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Tue Jun 06, 2017 4:03 pm
Trade the UK General Election with FxPro

On June 8, 2017, the United Kingdom goes to the polls following Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for a snap General Election last April. Mrs May’s Conservative Party is defending a majority against Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, and the Prime Minister hopes that the election will give her a stronger position as she negotiates Brexit in the coming months.

The election is expected to have a significant impact on GBP and the financial markets in general. As a client of FxPro, you can take advantage of a range of trading tools to monitor the markets and trade during the election period.

If you are trading during the UK General Election, we advise you to keep in mind that the increased market volatility expected may trigger sharp market movements across a number of instruments.Please note that margin requirements across several instruments are subject to change as a result of the expected volatility.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
http://bit.ly/2mwIVP6

Re: Follow The Markets

on Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:42 am

US Data brings on USD bulls
07.10.2017

U.S. job growth surged more than expected in June and employers increased hours for workers, with signs of a labor market strengthening that is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on course for a 3rd interest rate increase this year, despite lackluster inflation. Non-farm payrolls increased by 222,000 jobs in June beating expectations for a 179,000 gain. Data for April and May was revised to show 47,000 more jobs were created than previously reported. US unemployment rose to 4.4%, from a 16-year low of 4.3%, because more people were looking for work; a sign of confidence in the labor market. The jobless rate has dropped 0.4% this year and is close to the most recent Fed median forecast for 2017.

UK data released on Friday showed output by British factories unexpectedly fell in May, indicating that the UK economy has struggled to gain any momentum after a slow start to 2017 and further raising questions about the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year. Markets were expecting an increase of 0.5% in Manufacturing Production (MoM) but were surprised with a very poor reading of -0.2%. GBPUSD reacted immediately dropping from 1.2955 to 1.28664 (-0.7%) whilst EURGBP climbed from 0.87964 to 0.88602 (+0.55%). GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2905 and EURGBP around 0.8840.

The G20 meeting in Hamburg over the weekend had little to no impact on the markets. The highlights were the first-time meetings of Trump, Putin & Xi Jinping. The general undertone was that this was the G19 plus 1 meeting as the US was not a particularly welcome attendee.
USDJPY initially dropped by 0.6% on Friday, to trade as low as 113.148, before rebounding higher following the NFP to reach a high of 114.176 – a 0.8% increase on the day. In early trading USDJPY is around 114.15.

EURUSD had a similar story reaching a high of 1.14393 after the data release before retracing down to a low of 1.13791 a relatively small loss of 0.2% on the day. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1410.

Gold had heavy selling pressure, dropping 1% on Friday to trade as low as $1,207.17 – close to a 4-month low. Gold is down over 1.6% on the week resulting in its worst performance since May. Currently Gold is trading around $1,212.

WTI closed down 4% on the week as the decline in US inventories did not convince traders that global production was anywhere near rebalancing. On Friday WTI traded down 1.8% to hit a low of $43.88pb. Currently WTI is trading around $44.65pb.

Today & Tomorrow is light on impactful economic data releases – traders are focusing on Wednesday July 12 when, at 09:30 BST, the UK will release its Average Earnings Index followed, at 15:00 BST, by the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Fed Chair Yellen’s Testimony.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:52 am

Eurozone Growth Continues
by The FxPro Analyst Team,

Markets were focused on Washington D.C., where Jared Kushner answered questions before a Senate Committee on his dealings with Russian contacts during his father-in-law’s Presidential Campaign. Kushner confirmed having 4 meetings with Russians during the presidential campaign and the transition, but described the encounters as “unmemorable”. 

Donald Trump Jr. and former Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort will testify before a Senate Committee on Wednesday. Data released on Monday indicated that the Eurozone is experiencing a mild slowdown but the Eurozone economy was still growing at a relatively good pace. A good guide to economic growth was Monday’s Markit’s Euro Zone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Jul). 

Although the latest release fell to 55.8 from June’s 56.3 it is still well above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The release underlines strong job creation, business optimism and a strong pace of commercial activity for the Eurozone economy.

EURUSD continued its strong run climbing to a new 23 month high of 1.16836 on Monday. EUR is the best performing G10 currency in 2017 being up 10% to date. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1655.

GBPUSD rose 0.3% on Monday to reach a high of 1.30568 – a level not seen for over a week. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3030.

USD showed a gain against JPY of 0.5% on the day, after climbing off an early low of 110.616 and USDJPY is currently trading around 111.10.

AUDUSD rose 0.4%, trading up to 0.79668 on Monday, before giving back all its early gains as the markets await a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe on Wednesday. AUDUSD is currently trading around 0.7935.

Gold hit its highest level in more than a month on Monday to trade at $1,258.69. Currently, Gold is trading around $1,256.

Oil rose 1.8% on the day to $46.49pb as Saudi Arabia commented that “it would make deep cuts to its crude exports in August and encourage better compliance with supply reductions from other producers”. WTI continued edging higher overnight and is currently trading around $46.68pb.

At 11:00 BST the CESifo Group will release German IFO data. IFO Expectations (Jul) are forecast to be slightly lower at 106.5 from the previous reading of 106.8. As an indicator of current conditions and business expectations of 7,000 Business Leaders, the release may provide the markets with a better indication as to the state of the German economy and, in turn, the wider Eurozone economy. A higher number will indicate a more positive view of conditions and is therefore likely to be bullish for EUR, with the converse being true for a lower release.

Fed Policy makers begin their meeting today with a decision due on Wednesday. At 17:00, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane will be speaking in London at the Finance Foundation Annual Lecture.
FXPro
Broj poruka : 38
Points : 238
Date of Entry : 2017-03-11
Godina : 46
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Re: Follow The Markets

on Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:52 pm

Hello,

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are out this coming Friday, August 4, 2017, at 13:30 UK Time (GMT+1), and are expected to cause significant volatility in the markets. An economic indicator that tends to trigger sharp market movements in the minutes leading up to its release and afterwards, the NFP is released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month, outlining changes in the number of employees, excluding farm workers and those employed by the government, non-profit organisations and private households.
what to expect this month:



Keep in mind:

  • During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
  • Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact as the actual released data, if not greater.
  • A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, mean an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
  • A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers.
  • Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs is usually followed by a period during which the market tries to recover and return to its initial price levels.
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