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TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:01 pm
Hello!
There is analytics and trading recommendations from the company Tifia in this thread.

Tifia is a ECN/STP broker that provides its clients with fully transparent Forex trading conditions. Cooperating with us excludes any conflicts of interest and offers you high quality trading services and access to Tier-1 bank liquidity.
Tifia Forex Broker is a unique phenomenon in the foreign exchange market. Its numerous advantages allow the company to stand out from the crowd of competitors.
Tifia Company is a truly unique phenomenon on the international currency market, and the proof of this - many advantages that distinguish the company among its competitors:
·         Real ECN-model
·         Auto-withdraw
·         Fast Execution without re-quotes
·         Full Range of analytical tools and materials
·         Company allows all trading strategies
·         Protection from negative balance
·         Social Trading
The company ensures that all financial operations are carried out in accordance with strict regulations, security and legal requirements standards.
Account types: ECN Classic, ECN PRO
Trading Platforms: MT4
Highly Competitive Forex Spreads (spreads start at 0.0 pips)
Leverage: 1: 400 or less
Min. Deposit: $10
Methods of payment: VISA, MasterCard, Maestro, Skrill, OKPAY, NETELLER, Webmoney, QIWI and so on.
Affiliate Programs: IB program and MAM
The clients are our best motivation for further development. Everything we do, we do it in your interests!
*************************
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

S&P500: US indices are down

on Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:51 pm
Overview and dynamics
After the rapid growth against the backdrop of the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, US stock indices stabilized at new historical highs this month. However, yesterday the US indices fell sharply, for one day having crossed the entire growth of this month. As a result of the Tuesday session, the main stock indexes recorded the maximum decline since the beginning of this year.
So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 238 points (by 1.1%), Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.8%, S & P500 fell by 1.2%. The most affected stocks are in the financial sector, which fell sharply Tuesday along with the yield of government bonds. The subindex of shares of industrial companies fell by 1.5%. The fall in oil prices also puts pressure on the oil and gas sector in the S & P500 index. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell, according to Tradeweb, to 2,432% from 2,472% the day before. After Trump's victory in the elections, US stocks and the dollar rose against the backdrop of hopes that Donald Trump is implementing his program to support business, reduce taxes and increase budget spending, including on the US infrastructure. Now, many investors are increasingly skeptical about President Trump's plans to stimulate the economy.
The US dollar is also weakening in the foreign exchange market amid investor skepticism about the likelihood that Trump will fulfill his promises to stimulate the US economy. The dollar is not even helped by the tightening of monetary policy on the part of the Fed. It seems that now all the attention of investors is focused on whether Trump will manage to fulfill his promises. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, almost a third of investors consider shares overbought, which is the maximum level for 17 years.
Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT) the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Jellen, begins. It is possible that the dollar will receive support if Janet Yellen's speech contains signals to accelerate rates of rate hikes in the US. The fact that the Fed intends to raise just two more times this year's rates, market participants have already heard last week, when the Fed made a decision on the rates. How will speech Janet Yellen affect the US stock market - it is difficult to say for the time being.
 
Technical analysis
In March, the S & P500 index updated its absolute historical high, reaching the mark of 2400.0. However, in the future, like other major US stock indices, the S & P500 index suspended its growth. And for yesterday, the index lost all of its gains this month.
With the opening of today, the decline in the S & P500 index continues. At the beginning of the European session, the index is trading near the mark 2332.0 and the support level of EMA50 (on the daily chart).
Over the last two days, the index broke through two strong local support levels of 2369.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 2348.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
On the weekly chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions. It seems that the long-overdue correction after such a rapid growth of the indices began to be realized.
So far, the S & P500 has been restraining the support level of 2332.0 from further decline. In case of its breakdown, the S & P500 index decline may continue with the targets of 2275.0, 2265.0 (2180.0 (Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% in the wave of growth of the S & P500 index from February 2016 to the level of 2400.0).
The breakdown of the support level of 2265.0 will strengthen the risks of further decline of the index to the level of 2226.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and November highs). The breakdown of the support level 2180.0 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
The reverse scenario involves the return of the index above the level of 2348.0 and the resumption of growth. But only when you fix the index above the level of 2369.0 you can return to safe shopping. So far, negative dynamics prevails.
 
Support levels: 2332.0, 2300.0, 2275.0, 2265.0, 2226.0, 2200.0, 2180.0
Resistance levels: 2348.0, 2369.0, 2400.0
 
Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 2334.0. Stop-Loss 2349.0. Objectives 2330.0, 2300.0, 2275.0, 2213.0, 2200.0, 2180.0

Buy Stop 2349.0. Stop-Loss 2334.0. Objectives 2369.0, 2390.0, 2400.0




TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:44 am
EUR/USD: the dollar can get support today
23/03/2017
 
Trading recommendations
Sell ​​Stop 1.0770. Stop-Loss 1.0830. Targets 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615
Buy Stop 1.0830. Stop-Loss 1.0770. Targets 1.0850, 1.0890, 1.0940
 
Overview and Dynamics
Last week, as you know, at the end of two day meeting of the Fed raised short-term interest rates 25 basis points to 0.75% -1.00% range. In this case, the Fed pointed to the likelihood of the two rate hikes this year. Fed comments did not meet expectations of investors, who were counting on 3-4 fold increase in the rate.
 In response to the Fed's comments that the Fed showed inclination for a more loose monetary policy, and contrary to the decision to raise rates, the greenback fell sharply on the foreign exchange market. The WSJ dollar index, which tracks the US dollar's value against a basket of 16 major currencies, fell on Wednesday by 1.2%, to 90.82, which was its strongest one-day fall since January 17.
Investors who have been actively investing in the safe-haven yen, gold, took up negative attitude towards the dollar. The EUR / USD which received additional support after the results became known primaries in France, where the leader, former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs of France, Emmanuel Macron, a supporter of euro integration. The leader of the political party "National Front" Marine Le Pen, which is against the euro integration and for exit of France's from NATO, again moved to 3rd place.
Among the investors became more euro buyers than before, and there are proponents of the view that the ECB will soon turn off the program of quantitative easing, QE in the Eurozone.
So, on Monday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the ECB should gradually start to move away from loose monetary policy, which leads to inflation.
Last week was presented the February data on inflation, which for the first time in four years showed accelerating price growth towards the ECB target (below 2.0%). At a recent press conference ECB President Mario Draghi said "there is no more sense of further action urgent need" to deal with the extremely slow pace of inflation. However, the consensus among the leaders of the ECB on this matter has not. Thus, the head of the Bank of France said Wednesday that "the time is not to fold stimulate the economy."
On Friday at 09:00 (GMT) will be presented the most important data for the level of business activity in key sectors of the economy of the Eurozone in March. There is expected growth of business activity in the services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy. Earlier on Friday, also should pay attention to the publication at 06:30 and 08:30 (GMT) on the French GDP data for the first quarter and the index of business activity in Germany in March. Thus, on Friday published a number of important macro data for the Eurozone, which will cause a surge in volatility and trading in euro, including a pair of EUR / USD.
In the center of the attention of investors today will be the speech at 12:45 (GMT) of Fed chief Janet Yellen. In addition, if she will give a signal to accelerate the pace of increase in US interest rates, the dollar may be supported in the currency market.
 
Technical analysis
The EUR / USD rose sharply this month. Despite the interest rate rise in the US dollar weakened significantly in the currency market. The growth of EUR / USD pair reached March nearly 230 points. Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were developed on long positions.
The pair came close to the strong resistance level 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart). However, to break through the 1.0820 level EUR / USD pair will not be easy. Any change in the Fed’s sentiment quickly returns the positive momentum that will lead to its growth over the currency market.
In this case, reduction in the EUR / USD below support levels 1.0760 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0735 (EMA200 the 1-hour chart) return it to the downtrend. Nearest goal - to support levels 1.0675 (EMA200 and the lower line of the rising channel on 4-hour chart), 1.0615 (the lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
 Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.0820 is possible to speak about the future growth of the EUR / USD in the rising channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of it is held near the level of 1.1000.
Uncertainty about the upcoming elections in France will hold back until the euro and the pair EUR / USD.
 
Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485

Resistance levels: 1.0820



TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

USD/CAD: spread between oil prices and quotations of the Canadian dollar_24/03/2017

on Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:26 am
Current dynamics
 
After the Republicans proposed to postpone the vote in the US Congress on the health bill on Friday, the dollar adjusted and partially regained its positions in the foreign exchange market. It seems that the Republican Party has not yet received the support of the necessary number of congressmen in the preliminary negotiations. In view of this, it is likely that today, right up to the beginning of voting on the project (during the American trading session), the same picture can be repeated in the dynamics of the dollar. The US dollar has corrected after yesterday's decline and some market participants will want to re-enter short positions on it during today's European session. Nevertheless, with respect to the pair USD / CAD it is necessary to be careful when making sales of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
At 15:30, 16:30 and 16:45 (GMT + 3) a number of important macroeconomic indicators for the US and Canada are published, including the most important inflation indices - consumer price indices in Canada for February. The consumer price index is a key indicator of the level of inflation. The tendency of the Bank of Canada to tighten or mitigate monetary policy directly depends on it. The higher the value of the index, the higher the chances of raising the key rate in Canada and the higher the value of the Canadian dollar. According to the forecast, the index rose in February by 0.2% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the forecast is confirmed or the data will be better, the Canadian dollar will get support in the foreign exchange market.
It is worth, however, pay attention to the spread in the quotes of the Canadian dollar and oil prices. Despite a significant decline in oil prices in March (about 11.5%), the Canadian dollar avoided a fall in the pair USD / CAD. The reverse correlation of the pair USD / CAD with oil prices is approximately 92% and the Canadian dollar, remaining the commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotes.
In case of a successful outcome of voting in the US Congress on the bill on changes in the US healthcare system, the pair USD / CAD can grow significantly.
Today, as well as yesterday, the highest volatility in the financial markets is expected, especially during the American trading session, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
 
Support and resistance levels
 
Since May 2011, the pair USD / CAD is in an upward long-term trend. At the beginning of 2016, having peaked near 1.4600, the pair USD / CAD adjusted sharply, falling to support level 1.2630 by May 2016 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair's upward wave growth since May 2011). At the moment, the pair USD / CAD is trading near the most important level of 1.3385 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The pair USD / CAD keeps positive dynamics above support levels 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts are on the buyer’s side.
Fundamental factors (the difference in the direction of the monetary policies of the central banks of the US and Canada, falling oil prices) also contribute to the growth of the pair USD / CAD. Fixing the pair above the resistance levels 1.3385 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3410 (local highs) will create prerequisites for further growth of the pair in the medium term and return to the uptrend.
In the short term, a decline to support level 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. The breakdown of the support level 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will create risks for further reduction of the pair with a "long" target of 1.2630 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225
Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3385, 1.3410
 
Trading Scenarios
 
Buy Stop 1.3380. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3500, 1.3600

Sell ​​Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3380. Take-Profit 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225






TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

S&P500: Trump reforms "stall" _27/​03/2017

on Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:35 am
Current dynamics
 
The failure of the Trump administration with the draft of the new health law forced many investors to question its ability to fulfill Trump's promises during the campaign to support business in the United States. As you know, on Friday the Republicans withdrew from the vote in the US Congress the question of a new health bill, without enlisting the support of the majority of congressmen. Doubts about the success of the Trump administration began to appear at the beginning of last week. As a result, over the past week, the leading US stock indices recorded the largest drop in the last few months.
Reform of the health system was considered the first real test of the capabilities of the new administration. And now failure can cast doubt on the other legislative projects of Trump.
Doubts about Trump's ability to pursue a stimulating policy that would support the growth of stocks and the yield of government bonds caused a drop not only in the indices, but also in the dollar across the entire foreign exchange market.
The ICE dollar index fell on Friday to a minimum since mid-January 99,627 against 99,760 on Thursday. The S & P500 index fell 0.1% on Friday to 2,343.98 points, and by the end of the week, it fell 1.4%, which was its worst result since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 20596. Its weekly decline reached 1.5% and was the highest since September. Prices for US Treasury bonds rose, and the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.396% from 2.418% on Thursday.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump tried to reassure investors, saying, "we will undertake a very large effort for a significant reduction in taxes and tax reform. This will be our next step. "
In general, the positive background for stock indices remains. Despite the rollback (in absolute terms), the indices increased significantly in annual terms. So, the S & P500 index, despite weekly losses, since the beginning of the year is gaining 3.8%, DJIA has grown since the beginning of the year by 3.3%.
Now investors will closely follow the next steps of the administration of the US president. The Fed has already made it clear that there will be only two rate hikes this year, i.e. one more, and not three, as planned earlier. The Fed's inclination to soft monetary policy, as well as Trump's statements that the country needs a cheaper dollar, are supporting the US stock market.
 
Support and resistance levels
 
With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index fell sharply. The recall of the bill on health care from the Congress and its withdrawal from the vote collapsed the dollar and major US indices. The S & P500 index broke a short-term support level of 2348.0 and a support level of 2332.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The breakdown of the 2348.0, 2332.0 levels increased the risk of further decline in the index. The objectives of this decline are the levels of 2258.0 (December highs), 2265.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth of the index from the level of 1830.0 (low of 2016) to the level of 2400.0 (highs of 2017)).
Restoring of the index above the level of 2355.0 return the positive dynamics to index S&P500 and will point to the recent highs near the level of 2400.0.
The breakdown of support levels of 2228.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2181.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Support levels: 2320.0, 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0
Resistance levels: 2332.0, 2348.0, 2355.0, 2400.0
 
Trading Scenarios
 
Sell ​​Stop 2318.0. Stop-Loss 2333.0. Objectives 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0

Buy Stop 2333.0. Stop-Loss 2318.0. Objectives 2348.0, 2355.0, 2370.0, 2385.0, 2400.0


TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

XAG/USD: The dollar is recovering after the fall

on Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:49 am
28/03/2017
 Current dynamics
 
On Monday, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. On Friday, Republicans withdrew their bill from Congress to abolish Obamacare, as it did not receive support among Congressmen. Among investors, fears have increased that the US president's administration will be able to implement the promised tax cuts and increase infrastructure costs.
The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.6% to 89.65, the lowest level since November 11. Earlier, the dollar actively grew in the market in anticipation that the new administration of the US president will resort to fiscal stimulus measures of the economy, increasing budget expenditures, and creating prerequisites for a faster increase in interest rates.
The growth of uncertainty in the financial markets leads to the withdrawal of investor funds in safer assets, such as government bonds, yen, precious metals. So, on Monday April gold futures rose 0.6% to 1255.70 US dollars per ounce, having finished trading at the maximum level since February 27. However, the spot price for silver rose to $ 18.11 per troy ounce, the highest for the last 3 weeks.
The price of precious metals usually grows during periods of market or political uncertainty.
Moreover, the weakening of the dollar and the appreciation of precious metals is not hampered even by the decision of the Fed to raise the rate this month and verbal intervention by representatives of the Fed on the high probability of a multiple rate increase this year. Representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly signaled that the rate increase this year is likely to continue in connection with the strengthening of the economy and against expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2%, as well as an increase in US employment. Nevertheless, the prices for gold and silver are growing, and the dollar is getting cheaper.
 
Support and resistance levels
 
After a sharp decline since the beginning of the month, the pair XAG / USD was able to regain its upward momentum and is growing for the third consecutive week. The pair XAG/USD broke through the important resistance levels 17.37 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of correction to the pair growth from the end of December 2016 and the level 15.72), 17.53 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 17.77 (Fibonacci level 23,6%) and continues to grow to an important resistance level 18.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 0%).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.
Against the backdrop of a weak dollar, the upward trend in the pair XAG / USD persists. The nearest target is level 18.40.
The reverse scenario implies a breakdown of support levels of 17.70, 17.61, 17.53 and a decline to support level of 17.37. The break of 17.37 level raises the risk of further decline in the pair XAG / USD and its return to the downtrend with a long target of 15.72 (low of 2016).
Support levels: 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Resistance levels: 18.11, 18.40, 18.98
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell ​​Stop 17.97. Stop-Loss 18.10. Take-Profit 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Buy Stop 18.10. Stop-Loss 17.97. Take-Profit 18.20, 18.40, 18.98

 




TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Brent: Trump stimulates oil production in the US_29/03/2017

on Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:55 am
Current dynamics
On Tuesday, Donald Trump signed a decree to repeal measures to protect the environment, which was introduced by Barack Obama. On the one hand, this shows the determination of Trump in pursuing his new economic policy and the desire to return the economy to traditional sources of energy, such as oil and coal. On the other hand, the decree is even more motivating for US oil and gas companies to increase oil production and accelerate the drilling of new wells. Last week, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the US increased by another 21 units to 625 units. The number of active drilling rigs in the US has been increasing since June for several months in a row, doubling after reaching a minimum in May last year.
The active growth in oil production, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
The active growth of oil prices, observed immediately after the signing of this agreement, stalled already at the beginning of this year. Since the beginning of March, there has been a sharp drop in oil prices. Moreover, the price decline occurs against the background of the weakening of the dollar. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may accelerate.
Presented late last night, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that oil reserves in the US for the past week increased by 1.9 million barrels. The official report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry will be published today at 14:30 (GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 1.183 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products over the past week. Reserves of oil in the US are growing, again reaching a record high over the past 80 years, above 533 million barrels. Oil production in the US has been growing for the fifth consecutive week (up to 9.13 million barrels per day). If the data from the US Energy Ministry, which will be presented today, will be confirmed, then oil prices may continue to fall. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country. And this means that oil prices, if they do not continue to fall, will not grow actively.
 
Support and resistance levels
 
The price of Brent crude oil, having fallen from the maximum annual markings near the level of 57.30, stabilized near key support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums 2016 Year near the 27.00 mark). To determine the further dynamics of the price, new drivers are needed. The active growth of oil production and the growth of stocks in the US, as well as the Fed's inclination to a slower but gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, put pressure on oil prices.
If OPEC does not extend the agreement on limiting oil production, which ends in June, the price of oil will begin to decline rapidly. Fundamental drivers for the growth of oil prices yet.
In the case of breakdown of the support level of 50.30, the decline in the price of Brent oil may accelerate.
Only when the price returns above the resistance levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 53.25 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), you can again seriously consider long positions.
Support levels: 51.50, 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00
Resistance levels: 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30
 
Trading Scenarios
 
Sell ​​Stop 51.40. Stop-Loss 51.95. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00

Buy Stop 51.95. Stop-Loss 51.40. Take-Profit 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30






TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:16 pm
GBP/USD: UK GDP in Q4_30 / 03/2017
Current dynamics
Nine months after the vote for secession from the EU, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed Wednesday a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations based on Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Now Great Britain will try to soften for itself the conditions of this process. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks; the most cautious forecast is until the end of the second quarter. The uncertainty of this process puts pressure on the pound.
On the other hand, Fed officials continue to signal that the US central bank is still prepared to continue raising rates this year. In their opinion, the Fed will raise the rate 2-3 times more this year.
Earlier in the week, the dollar appreciably weakened in the foreign exchange market after the Republicans withdrew from the Congress a bill on healthcare on Friday. This raised doubts about the Trump administration's ability to implement tax reforms and plans to stimulate the economy. However, published on Tuesday, data showed that consumer confidence in the US reached the highest level in 16 years. The dollar received support and was able to recover significantly in the foreign exchange market. Now, according to CME Group's data, the probability of a rate hike at the June Fed meeting is 53%.
It seems that market participants are not yet fully aware of the Fed's determination in this matter. As the June approach approaches, as the positive data from the United States come in, the dollar will gradually grow stronger in the foreign exchange market.
Tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT) will be published data on UK GDP for the 4th quarter. The country ranks first on the annual percentage growth of GDP among all the strongest economies of the world, and the share of the UK's GDP in the world GDP is about 4% (2nd place in Europe after Germany). GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the British economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for GBP, and vice versa. An annual increase of 2.0% is expected. If GDP data turn out to be weak, this will directly affect the decision of the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate in the UK. And this will put downward pressure on the pound. The main factors that can force the Bank of England to lower the rate are a weak GDP growth, the labor market. However, the growing inflation in the country will have the opposite effect on the Bank of England in its decision to lower the interest rate. Positive macroeconomic reports of recent weeks suggest that the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum.
A strong GDP report will have the most positive impact on the pound's position and the British stock market.
Conversely, weak GDP will have a negative impact on the pound's quotes, including in the GBP / USD pair.
And today the attention of market participants will be focused on data on GDP and inflation indicators of the US for the 4th quarter. Strong GDP and inflation indexes can significantly reduce the doubts of market participants in the likelihood of a rate hike in the US already at the May or June meeting of the Fed.
 
Support and resistance levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Since yesterday, the GBP / USD pair has formed a short-term range between the support level of 1.2392 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and resistance level 1.2447 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The pair GBP / USD growth in the period of 1-2 weeks is limited by resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails. If the US GDP (published today) turns out to be strong, and the UK GDP (published tomorrow) will be weaker than the forecast (2.0%), then the GBP / USD pair will definitely break through the short-term support level 1.2392 and go towards the nearest support level 1.2150 (March lows) .
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and 4-hour charts turned to the side of sellers.
The reverse scenario is related to breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.2447 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the withdrawal from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2392, the pair GBP / USD decline will continue.
Support levels: 1.2392, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2447, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell ​​Stop 1.2380. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2380. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800






TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:14 pm
EUR/USD: the euro remains under pressure_31/03/2017
 
Current dynamics
 
During the day of active decline from the level of 1.0863, the pair EUR / USD lost about 1.8% (190 points). There is a small recovery in the opening of today's European session; however, the negative dynamics of the pair remains. This week, the most important macro data on the United States was published. The level of consumer confidence in the US in March reached a maximum in 16 years (125.6), surpassing the forecast of economists (114.0). Annual data on US GDP and price indices for the fourth quarter, published on Thursday, also proved very positive. GDP grew in the fourth quarter on updated data by 2.1%.
Today we are waiting for publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the USA, including inflation indices of personal consumption expenditure for February, from 15:30 to 17:00 (GMT + 3). However, gradually attention of investors is switching to the publication next Friday of data from the US labor market for March.
GDP growth, inflation dynamics and the labor market are key factors for the Fed in determining the need for and the rate of tightening (or easing) monetary policy in the US.
The US economy is recovering steadily after the crisis of 2007, and consumers are confident in the economic development of the country. Positive macro statistics coming from the US, as well as verbal intervention by the Fed representatives with regard to a further gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.
On the part of the key representatives of the ECB, there are statements about the need to continue to maintain extra soft monetary policy in the Eurozone. The difference in monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone will continue to be the determining factor in the medium-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair.
 
Support and resistance levels
 
The pair broke through the important support levels 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.0765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart). At the beginning of today's European session, the pair EUR / USD is trying to stabilize at support level 1.0695 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Bonding above this level will mean the EUR / USD pair's return to the upward correction trend, which began in January.
A further decline will mean the end of the upward correction and the EUR / USD pair's return to the downtrend with the targets of 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered only when the pair returns above the level of 1.0765.
If the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone above the level of 1.0820, you can return to the purchases with medium-term objectives of 1.0950, 1.1000. For now, the negative background for the EUR / USD pair prevails.
Support levels: 1.0695, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell ​​Stop 1.0670. Stop-Loss 1.0720. Objectives 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.0670. Objectives 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0890, 1.0905, 1.0940
 

 https://s25.postimg.org/htd21lwvj/310317-_EU-h4.png" alt="" />
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

USD/JPY: the beginning of the new fiscal year in Japan_03/04/2017

on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:11 pm
Current dynamics
The new trade week that has begun is connected with important events in the world of international finance and the publication of important macroeconomic data. One of the focus of traders will be the publication on Wednesday (21:00 GMT + 3) of the protocol from the last March meeting of the FOMC, at which FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%.
Markets have already played this event; however, investors will be interested to see the text of the minutes of this meeting. As a rule, FOMC meetings discuss, among other things, a schedule for raising (or lowering) the basic interest rate. The Fed comments to the last rate increase in March indicated a two-time rate increase this year. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support. Therefore, the importance of publishing this protocol and its impact on the dollar quotes is difficult to overestimate.
At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the fact that in Japan, March 31 ended the fiscal year. Japanese taxpayers, including export companies, which completed the annual period of repatriation of capital to Japan, for the most part have already paid taxes. In this regard, the pressure on the yen, including the active purchases on the Japanese stock market, which occur, usually at the beginning of the new fiscal year in the first half of April, can dramatically increase. The Japanese stock index Nikkey225, which has a high correlation with the pair USD / JPY, may begin to grow actively until April 15.
In this regard, it is worth being prepared for the growth of the pair USD / JPY, especially if it is accompanied by the strengthening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT) will be published index of gradual acceleration of inflation, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, for March. A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve gives a speech today (scheduled for today after 14:30 GMT). The US continues to receive positive macro statistics. Recently, representatives of the Fed sound hawkish notes regarding the plan for tightening monetary policy in the US. It is likely that today will not be an exception in the rhetoric of the representatives of the Fed. And if published earlier macro data on the US will again be positive, then the dollar will receive double support today.
 
Support and resistance levels
Earlier this week, the pair USD / JPY rebounded from the 110.10 support level (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and is trying to develop an upward trend, attempting to break through the short-term resistance level of 111.50 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
USD / JPY managed to gain a foothold above the important support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The pair is growing in the rising short-term channel on the 1-hour chart and is currently near the lower border of this channel.
On the daily chart, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators shifted to the buyers’ side. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 111.50, the pair USD / JPY may continue to the resistance level 112.60 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper limit of the rising channel on the 1-hour chart). In case of consolidation of the pair USD / JPY above this level, the risks of further growth of the pair to the 115.00 level will increase.
The reverse scenario is related to the breakdown of the support level at 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline. The nearest target is level 110.10.
We follow the dynamics of the index of the Japanese stock market Nikkey225. The growth of the index on the background of active purchases at the beginning of the new financial year will pull the yen's sales, including in the pair USD / JPY. Positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 111.15.
Support levels: 111.15, 110.10, 109.00
Resistance levels: 111.50, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00
 
Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 111.10. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00

Sell ​​Stop 111.10. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.80, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50






TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:01 pm
GBP/USD: deficit of the foreign trade balance of the UK increased_07/04/2017
 
Current dynamics

The deficit of foreign trade in goods in the UK in February (with correction) rose to 12.5 billion pounds (forecast was 10.7 billion pounds). At the same time, the foreign trade deficit for January was revised to 12.0 billion pounds from 10.8 billion pounds. Manufacture in the manufacturing sector of the UK in February fell by another 0.1% after a decrease of 0.9% in January. The level of industrial production in annual terms in February fell to 2.8% from 3.2% in January (the forecast was + 3.7%).
Such disenchanted investors data led today (08:30 GMT) by the British Office of National Statistics. In response to the data presented, the pound fell in the foreign exchange market. The pair GBP / USD lost 30 points in a moment. And the pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair persists.
Today in the foreign exchange market as a whole, the negative background prevails after it became known about the US missile strikes against Syria. There was a sharp increase in demand for yen and precious metals. These assets act as shelters during a political or financial crisis on the world stage.
June gold futures on the basis of yesterday's trading on COMEX rose by 0.4% to 1253.30 dollars per ounce. During the Asian session, the price-spot jumped above the level of 1265.00.
The pound is under pressure amid Brexit talks, when British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree last week to launch an official process for Britain's withdrawal from the European Union.
The focus of investors today will be the meeting of US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jingping and the publication of data from the US labor market in March (12:30 GMT). According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%. If the average hourly earnings grow by more than 0.2% (as it was in February), the report will show a very stable labor market in the US, which will help to strengthen the positive sentiment of investors regarding the rapid rate increase in the US. This will cause the growth of the dollar. Conversely, a weak labor market report will weaken the US dollar, including in the GBP / USD pair.
 
Support and resistance levels
Starting in October, the pair GBP / USD traded mostly in the range between 1.2765 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 1.2110. The peculiar midline of this range is the level of 1.2420. Currently, this line is the EMA50 line on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, the level of 1.2420 is a strong support level. Also on the 4-hour chart formed a tapering triangle, and the price is currently on the lower edge of the triangle.
Despite the indications OsMA and Stochastic, recommending sales, the rebound from the current level is likely to follow. Short-term objectives may be the levels of 1.2470, 1.2490, through which the upper line of the converging triangle passes. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.
If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2420, its decline may resume. The nearest target is support level 1.2110.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that put pressure on the GBP / USD pair.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD so far prevails.
Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2450. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100
Buy Stop 1.2450. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700.
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:55 am
GBP/USD: inflation in the UK has risen sharply_10 / 04/2017
 
Current dynamics

The ambiguous US macro statistics released last week, as well as the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US missile strike in Syria, have led to an increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Data on the US labor market, published last Friday, showed that the unemployment rate in March fell to 4.5%. However, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 98,000, while economists were expecting 175,000 jobs.
The dollar declined after the publication of the data, however, was able to regain its position in the foreign exchange market after the president of the Fed-New York, William Dudley, said that the Fed will begin to reduce its balance towards the end of the year. The portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is 4.5 billion dollars, and such actions will lead to an increase in the value of the dollar against bond sales and the growth of their yield. Dudley believes that a reduction in the Fed's portfolio will not lead to a slowdown in the rate of interest rates. Such actions of the Fed should lead to an increase in the value of the dollar and attract investors to its purchases.
Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy, and this, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.
The pair GBP / USD hit on Friday under double pressure after the publication of disappointing data on industrial production in the UK for February.
This week, market participants will follow the UK inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday (08:30 GMT). At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's withdrawal from the EU. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank of Great Britain voted for an immediate increase in rates. Other members also signaled the possibility of such an increase in the near future.
Nevertheless, it will be difficult for the Bank of England to take such a step because of the drop in consumer spending amid a sharp weakening of the pound. Consumer spending is one of the key elements of UK GDP.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, which will start at 20:10 (GMT).
 
Support and resistance levels
On Friday, the pair GBP / USD broke short-term support levels of 1.2450, 1.2415 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).
The attempt of the upward correction, undertaken by the pair today, stalled near the resistance level 1.2400. The upward correction seems to have the end ahead of time, not reaching the level of resistance 1.2415.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of sellers. On the 1-hour chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2415. Only in case of consolidation above the level of 1.2450 can we return to consideration of long positions for the pair GBP / USD.
In case of breakdown at the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.
A powerful fundamental factor in favor of short positions on the GBP / USD pair is the different orientation of monetary policies in the US and UK, the exit of the country from the European Union, the official start of which was laid in April.
Support levels: 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000
Levels of resistance: 1.2415, 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2415. Take-Profit 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100
Buy Stop 1.2415. Stop-Loss 1.2385. Take-Profit 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700
 
[img]https://s25.postimg.org/kg7be22lr/100417-_GU-d.png[/img]
 

[img]https://s25.postimg.org/hne3u129b/100417-_GU-h4.png[/img]
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Apr 11, 2017 5:37 pm
USD/CAD: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
11/04/2017
Current dynamics

The era of the extremely soft monetary policy of the US central bank is coming to an end. This was announced on Monday by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, stressing that "now the Fed gives the economy the opportunity to move by inertia, measuredly."
Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed showed that the leaders of the Central Bank are inclined to start reducing the portfolio of treasury and mortgage bonds amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy. This process, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar. Sales of state bonds can pull up their profitability and the dollar.
Janet Yellen confirmed yesterday that the interest rate in the US will reach about 3% within two years (currently the current range is 0.75% -1.00%).
Janet Yellen also believes that in other developed countries, economic growth and inflation are recovering and, probably, central banks will begin to wind down stimulating programs.
In this regard, it will be interesting to find out tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate, which is published at 14:00 (GMT).
The current rate in Canada is 0.5%. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and oil is the country's main export commodity. The Canadian dollar, while remaining a commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotations. The price of oil since the end of last month adjusted for 10% after the recent fall and continues to grow amid disruptions in supplies in Canada and Libya. At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which has a correlation with oil prices of 92%, since the middle of last month, practically stands still.
If tomorrow the Bank of Canada only hinted at the possibility of an early increase in the interest rate in Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen sharply in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair USD / CAD.
Conversely, the expressed tendency of the Bank of Canada to continue soft monetary policy will contribute to the weakening of the Canadian dollar.
In any case, during the publication of the Bank of Canada decision on the rate, the highest volatility is expected in the Canadian dollar and USD / CAD trades.
 
Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of last month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, mainly in the range between support levels 1.3300 and resistance 1.3430. At the moment, the pair USD / CAD found support near the levels 1.3340 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3315 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give clear signals. A lot in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD will depend on tomorrow's decision of the Bank of Canada on the rate and accompanying comments.
If the support level breaks 1.3300, the pair USD / CAD will go to support level 1.3240 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The reverse scenario assumes a breach of the short-term resistance level of 1.3375 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth in the uplink on the daily chart with targets of 1.3430, 1.3590.
Support levels: 1.3315, 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635
Levels of resistance: 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3360. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3375, 1.3430, 1.3590, 1.3680
Sell ​​Stop 1.3320. Stop-Loss 1.3360. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2840, 1.2760, 1.2635
 

[img]https://c.mql5.com/1/63/110417-UC-d_-50.png[/img]
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:21 am
XAU / USD: gold is rising in price
12/04/2017
Overview and dynamics
The continuing geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on profitable but risky assets, forcing investors to withdraw funds into safer assets - yen, government bonds, gold. June gold futures on the basis of trading on COMEX rose by 1.5% to 1,272.00 dollars per troy ounce, the highest level since early November. Quotes of gold rose to new annual and monthly highs. This year, gold prices rose by about 10%. At the beginning of the European session, the spot price for gold is near the mark of 1275.00, and prices do not seem to be going to retreat.
Gold began to rise sharply after it became known about the US missile strikes in Syria at the end of last week. And now, despite the Fed's tough position to raise the interest rate and reduce its balance of $ 4.5 trillion, gold is rising in price.
Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.
According to some economists, gold will grow this year in price above $ 1,300 per troy ounce and to $ 1,400 in 2018.
The focus of traders today will be a speech by US President Donald Trump (10:00 GMT) and the publication of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision (14:00 GMT). A little later (15:15), the Bank of Canada's press conference will begin, and at 20:15 the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin.
Today, the highest volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected, especially at the above time intervals.
 
Technical analysis
The pair XAU / USD has closely approached the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the level of 1276.00 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Since mid-March, against the background of the weakening of the dollar, the pair XAU / USD is actively growing, blocking the decline observed at the beginning of last month.
The price of gold has reached the next annual maximum near the current mark. As long as the pair XAU / USD is above the support levels of 1233.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50.0%), it keeps positive dynamics.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts are on the buyers side.
The closest target in case of breakdown of the level of 1276.00 and continuation of the growth of the pair XAU / USD will be 1300.00.
The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of support levels of 1263.00 and further decrease to key support levels of 1248.00, 1233.00. Securing the pair XAU / USD below the level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.
Support levels: 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1276.00, 1280.00
 
Trading recommendations
Sell ​​Stop 1268.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1251.00, 1248.00, 1238.00, 1233.00

Buy Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1268.00. Take-Profit 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.0




TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:24 pm
Brent: oil reserves in the US declined, but ...
13/04/2017
Current dynamics

Despite the reduction in oil reserves in the US storage facilities, oil prices fell on Wednesday. The price of Brent crude oil lost about $ 0.7 per barrel for yesterday. As reported on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, crude oil and petroleum products in the US last week fell by 2.166 million barrels (forecasted to increase by 0.087 million barrels). The fall in the price of oil, which is denominated in US dollars, did not even stop the sharp decline in the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The dollar began to fall on Wednesday at the end of the US trading session after Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong" and the country "is very, very difficult to compete when the dollar is strong and other countries are lowering the value of their currencies ".
According to analysts of the oil market, the decline in oil prices could be due to the closure of long positions on oil and profit-taking on the eve of the holiday weekend. Tomorrow on Good Friday, trading in oil markets will not be held.
Also, the rise in oil prices could stop after the release of US data, according to which the country's oil production last week reached a maximum in more than a year. Now, production in the US has grown for the eighth week in a row. Oil production in the US in March increased to 9 million barrels per day against 8.6 million barrels per day in September last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted.
Oil prices rose by about 20% from the end of last year after OPEC and the 11 largest oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed to cut their total output by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months. Quotas are currently being observed almost 100%.
Nevertheless, the active growth of oil production outside the cartel, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
Since the middle of last month, rising oil prices have resumed against the backdrop of a falling dollar and interruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Canada. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may resume.
As predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to the monthly report, the world growth rate of oil demand in 2017 will slow for the second consecutive year. The agency predicts that oil production in the US by the end of this year will grow by 680,000 barrels per day compared with the end of 2016. Oil production outside OPEC this year could thus increase by 485,000 barrels per day.
On Friday at 20:00 (GMT + 3) will be published data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. for the number of active drilling platforms in the US. It is likely that the number of active drilling rigs in the US, which has been growing since June for several months in a row and currently stands at 672 units, will grow again. And this will be another negative factor for oil prices. The number of oil drilling rigs almost doubled after reaching a minimum in May last year. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country.
 
Support and resistance levels
Despite the resumption of growth since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude is below the highs reached after the OPEC deal to cut production. The price is again in the zone of strong resistance level 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
On the weekly chart, the price is rising in the uplink, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators are on the buyers’ side. On the daily chart, the price is on the upper boundary of the descending channel, and the indicators unfold to short positions. The picture is controversial.
If the short-term 54.90 support level is broken (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a decline to support levels of 54.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, as well as EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 53.00 (June and October highs) is possible. In the case of a confirmed breakdown of the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and fixing below the level of 50.00, the upward trend in the price for Brent crude oil will be canceled.
Update yesterday's highs near the mark of 56.80 will indicate a further increase in the price of Brent crude oil.
Support levels: 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Resistance levels: 56.80, 57.00, 57.50
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 55.70. Stop-Loss 56.50. Take-Profit 55.60, 54.90, 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 50.70
Buy Stop 56.50. Stop-Loss 55.70. Take-Profit 56.80, 57.00, 57.50
 
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:08 pm
EUR/USD: in financial markets flat
14/04/2017
Current dynamics
In connection with the Easter holidays today in financial markets flat. Trades on European and American trading floors are not held. Trading volumes are low.
After a sharp decline yesterday, the dollar was able to recover in the pair EUR / USD. After Wednesday afternoon at the end of the trading day, Donald Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the dollar is becoming "too strong," and American goods are "very, very difficult to compete" in a situation where "other countries reduce the value of their currencies" , the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market.
Investors in the current situation prefer to withdraw their funds into safe assets, such as government bonds, yen, and gold. So, against the background of increased purchases, the yield of US 10-year government bonds fell to 2.237% on Thursday, the lowest level since November 16.
The alarming geopolitical situation in the world is also not conducive to the purchase of risky assets. The euro is also under pressure on the background of the pre-election race in France. If the victory is won by political leaders opposing the euro integration, then, still not recovering from Brexit, the euro can get another strong blow to its positions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR / USD pair has its own scenario at the moment.
In general, recently, against the background of an abundance of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar and uncertainty of investors. This, again, increases the demand for safe haven assets. Gold has been growing in price since the middle of last month and is already the fifth consecutive session, updating annual price highs.
Flat in the financial markets can last until Tuesday. Nevertheless, you need to be prepared for unexpected price emissions, and, in any direction against the backdrop of low trading volumes.
Especially, it can happen during the news publication period. We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 15:30 (GMT + 3) will be published inflationary consumer price indices and retail sales in the US for March. Strong data will help strengthen the dollar, and sharply. Weak data can contribute to an equally active decline in the dollar. By the end of the trading day, the dollar and the EUR / USD pair are likely to return to the levels of today's opening.
 
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart of the pair EUR / USD, a tapering triangle formed. The upper line of the triangle is currently near the level of 1.0795 and roughly corresponds to the 200-period moving average on the daily chart. The lower line of the tapering triangle corresponds to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, passing near the level of 1.0580. The tapering triangle is a trend continuation figure. And since the downtrend prevails, it is more likely to break the lower boundary of the triangle (level 1.0580), followed by a decrease in the EUR / USD pair.
However, until this moment, the pair EUR / USD can still be repeatedly adjusted and "go down" to the upper limit of the triangle and the level of 1.0795. And instead of the expected breakdown of the level of 1.0580, rebound and growth may follow. So far, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing, while it is below the short-term resistance levels 1.0638, 1.0668 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).
In the case of consolidating a pair above the level of 1.0668, it is highly probable that it will continue to increase to resistance levels 1.0735 (EMA144), 1.0795 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The probability of such a scenario is signaled by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which turned on long positions on the 4-hour and daily charts.
If the negative background is maintained against the dollar, then the probability of the EUR / USD pair strengthening scenario will increase.
And, conversely, as geopolitical tension decreases, investors' attention will again switch to positive macroeconomic indicators from the US. In this case, the dollar's growth will resume, and the pair EUR / USD will again be under pressure and will finally break through the support level of 1.0580.
In case of further reduction, the targets will be the levels of 1.0530, 1.0500, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered when returning a pair above the level of 1.0668.
 
Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0638, 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell ​​Stop 1.0595. Stop-Loss. Objectives 1.0580, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0645. Stop-Loss 1.0595. Objectives 1.0668, 1.0690, 1.0735, 1.0795
 
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:58 am
AUD/USD: data on China supported the Australian dollar_17/04/2017
 
Current dynamics
According to data published this morning, China's industrial production in March rose by 7.6% yoy (the previous value of 6.3%), retail sales in China in March grew by 10.9% in annual terms (the previous value of + 9.5%), China's GDP in the 1st quarter grew by 6.9% in annual terms (the previous value + 6.8%). Strong data on China contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily coal, iron ore, liquefied gas. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.
At the same time, the US dollar continues to win back weak data on retail sales in the US for March, which was published on Friday in closed trading on European and American exchanges. Retail sales in the US in March declined for the second month in a row, with a two-month dynamics was the worst for more than 2 years. The basic consumer price index also fell, which occurred for the first time since January 2010.
The weakening of inflationary pressures, after Donald Trump's negative comments on a strong dollar, can significantly reduce the enthusiasm of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar. The rate of inflation, along with data on GDP and the labor market in the US are key factors for the Fed in terms of further interest rate increases.
 Slowing down the pace of inflation could force the Fed to reconsider its tough stance on US monetary policy plans.
Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT) the protocol will be published from the last April meeting of the RBA on Monetary Policy. As you know, at the beginning of the month the RBA kept the current interest rate at the same level of 1.5%. The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA, GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.
Most likely, the RBA protocol will become aware of the intention to continue to maintain a soft monetary policy in Australia.
If the protocols contain harsh rhetoric about monetary policy in the country, then the Australian dollar can be strengthened in the currency market at once and fairly sharply.
 
Support and resistance levels
On the general weakening of the US dollar, the AUD / USD pair was able to grow and gain a foothold above the key levels of 0.7535 (EMA200), 0.7555 (EMA144 on the daily chart). At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is at a strong resistance level of 0.7590 (EMA50 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic draw a contradictory picture. If the indicators on the weekly chart are on the side of the sellers, then on the 4-hour and daily charts the indicators are turned to long positions.
The current level of 0.7590 is the key for guiding the further movement of the AUD / USD pair. In case of rebound from the level of 0.7590 and return below the short-term support level of 0.7550 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the further decline of the AUD / USD pair is likely.
The fall in the pair AUD / USD under the level of 0.7535 will return it to a downtrend.
An alternative scenario is associated with a further weakening of the US dollar and breakdown of the resistance level at 0.7590. If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD with targets 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 is likely to grow (Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
 The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may remain as long as the pair is above the support level of 0.7535.
Support levels: 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7590, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell ​​Stop 0.7575. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7555, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7400
Buy Stop 0.7610. Stop-Loss 0.7575. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7650, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840
 
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:32 am
GBP/USD: Theresa May's decision has crumbled European stock markets _19/04/2017
 
Current dynamics

After yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections, the British stock market collapsed. Following the index FTSE100, which lost almost 2.9%, followed all the European major stock indexes. Sale on the stock markets of the UK and Europe caused a sharp strengthening of the pound and the euro. The pair GBP / USD rose yesterday almost by 350 points, to the level of 1.2900, however, to the close of yesterday's trading day fell to the level of 1.2840.
The pound grew throughout the currency market, Investors expect that early general elections in the UK will allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of supporters of the tough scenario Brexit. Then the pound can get even stronger. At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's exit from the EU. Recent positive macroeconomic data from the UK, as well as sharply increased inflation in the country, suggest that the Bank of England may return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a positive factor for the pound.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 18:00 (GMT) of the Fed's economic review (Beige Book), which examines the current situation in the US economy. Optimistic views of economists, reflected in the review, will help strengthen the US dollar, and pessimistic - weaken the USD.
 
Support and resistance levels
Yesterday, after Theresa May announced her decision, the pound and GBP / USD pair rose sharply. The pair GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the day market).
At the same time, the US dollar regains its position in the foreign exchange market. In the GBP / USD pair, correction may also begin. The immediate goal of the decline in this case will be the level of 1.2770.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts were deployed to short positions.
The reverse scenario will be associated with the further growth of the GBP / USD pair in case of consolidation above the current high near the 1.2860 mark.
 Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2770. Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.2900 (yesterday's highs) can we consider the long positions for the pair GBP / USD.
Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3350
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2865. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2590, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2860. Stop-Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2905, 1.3000, 1.3100
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:45 pm
XAU/USD: The dollar is in no rush to take positions
20/04/2017
Current Dynamics

While the euro and the pound are growing again in the foreign exchange market, the dollar is in no rush to retreat against the yen and gold, which are asset-seekers. So, with the opening of today's trading day after the active decline in the day before, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the level of 1276.00 dollars per troy ounce. If the pound and the euro are moving at the moment in the foreign exchange market according to their scenario, the precious metals and, in particular, gold, after reaching the local annual highs at the beginning of this week, stopped rising.
If the elections in France are completed safely for the euro, i.e. If candidates from the extreme left and extreme right do not win, then the situation in the financial markets will calm down a little. The threat of a sovereign default of France and its withdrawal from the EU will be lifted.
Nevertheless, while the uncertainty with the elections in France exists, as well as the threat of sales of France's sovereign debt of about 1 trillion euros, gold will not be cheaper, despite the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy and reduce its budget.
Boston Federal Reserve Bank manager Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday that the Fed should begin the process of reducing its asset portfolio "the sooner, the better." This will allow the Fed to raise short-term interest rates without harm to the economy, according to Rosengren. He also noted that the interest rate should be the "main mechanism" affecting the state of the US economy. Thus, the Fed continues to receive signals for a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US.
Gold is cheaper in the situation of an increase in the interest rate in the US, t. It is difficult for him to compete with interest-bearing assets. The cost of its acquisition and storage with a tightening of monetary policy is growing.
The restraining factor from the decline in the price of gold is still geopolitical instability in the world and the position of US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly spoke in favor of a cheap dollar. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said that the dollar "is becoming too strong" for US goods to compete successfully in the market.
Of the expected news for today, it is worth paying attention to data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT), a weekly report from the US Department of Labor on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits is published. According to the forecast, the number of benefits is expected to increase to 242,000 (against 234,000 last week). If the data turn out to be worse, it will negatively affect the dollar, and vice versa, a low result will strengthen the dollar.
During the period from 15:30 to 17:30, several key figures of the world financial market, Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin are expected to perform. In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, including XAU / USD.
 
Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair XAU / USD is trading near support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and EMA144 on the 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts are deployed to short positions.
In case of breakdown of support levels 1277.00, 1274.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline in the pair XAU / USD will accelerate. The immediate targets will be support levels 1260.00 (February and March highs), 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). Fixing of XAU/USD below the levels of 1235.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1220.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the uptrend.
Nevertheless, while the pair XAU / USD is above the support level of 1248.00, it keeps positive dynamics. The closest target in the case of continued growth of the pair XAU / USD will be the level of 1300.00. But for this, the pair XAU / USD needs to gain a foothold above the local maximum near the 1292.00 mark (April highs).
Support levels: 1277.00, 1274.00, 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Levels of resistance: 1287.00, 1292.00, 1300.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1273.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1253.00, 1248.00, 1235.00, 1220.00
Buy Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1273.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:05 pm
DJIA: Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors
21/04/2017
 
Current Dynamics

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said in his yesterday's speech that the tax reform plan will appear "very, very soon". This plan will be "decisive, substantial and will be the main priority for President Trump." After the presidential elections in the US against the backdrop of Donald Trump's pre-election promises to carry out tax reforms and stimulate fiscal policy, American stock markets and indices were actively growing, and government bonds were subject to large-scale sales. Now the US stock markets are seeing the opposite picture.
Investors are still being pressured by increased geopolitical tensions in the world after US missile strikes against Syria. The growing tensions between the US and North Korea also do not contribute to an increase in appetite for the purchase of risky assets. Investors once again prefer government bonds and other assets-seekers - gold and yen.
Also the general picture spoils some negative macro data coming from the USA. So, the data released yesterday by the US Department of Labor showed a reduction in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits last week and an increase in the number of initial applications (244,000 versus 234,000 last week). The index of production activity, which is interrelated with the ISM index, fell to 22 points in April (against 32.8 in March).
Nevertheless, the main US stock indexes have grown today thanks to reports of companies exceeding the expectations of economists. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday by 0.9% to 20582 points, S & P500 - by 0.8%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.9%. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds against their sales rose to 2.257% from 2.202% on Wednesday, which also helped strengthen the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin cheered up investors, giving them hope that Trump's plan to stimulate the US economy would still be realized.
Today, the financial markets have a low activity of traders on the eve of the first round of the presidential elections in France, which will be held this Sunday. The risk that the results of the elections could violate the integrity of the EU, still hinders investors from actively operating in the financial markets. If Marin Le Pen wins, which promised to withdraw France from the European Union, then the euro and European stock markets could literally collapse. Following them, American stock markets can follow. The demand for gold and yen will grow sharply.
Of the news for today is worth highlighting data from the United States. At 13:45 (GMT), indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and service sector (PMI) from Markit for the US for April (preliminary value) are published. The index is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole. At 13:30, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari begins, which is likely to follow the statements of other representatives of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US in general, and will favor an early increase in the rate in the US and a reduction in the Fed's budget. This will have a positive effect on the dollar, but is unlikely to support the US stock indexes.
 
Support and resistance levels
From the beginning of the previous month, the DJIA index, in general, is declining. With the absolute highs reached at the end of February near the 21170.0 mark, the DJIA index lost about 3.5%, having fallen to the current level of 20600.0. However, after yesterday's statements by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, the DJIA index rose, broke through the short-term resistance level of 20555.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), however, it was suspended by resistance level 20620.0 (the upper limit of the descending channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart again unfolds to short positions.
If the DJIA index returns below the level of 20555.0, then its decline may continue to the nearest support level of 20360.0 (the lower limit of the descending channels on the 4-hour and daily charts).
If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may extend to the support levels of 1990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark 21160.0). Further decline and breakdown 19600.0 level (EMA200 on the daily chart) will be critical for the bullish trend of the DJIA index.
To return to the purchases, the index must be fixed above the level 20750.0 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 20750.0 and 20360.0). While short-term downward correctional dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 20555.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0
Resistance levels: 20620.0, 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 20650.0. Stop-Loss 20540.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20886.0, 20980.0, 21170.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 20540.0. Stop-Loss 20650.0. Take-Profit 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0, 19600.0
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:18 pm
EuroStoxx50: Centrist Emmanuel Macron leads the presidential race
24/04/2017
Current dynamics

According to the latest information, during the first round of the presidential elections in France, Emmanuel MacRon won 23.9% of the vote, the second among Marin Le Pen with 21.4%. It is likely that during the second round of elections, Macron can defeat Le Pen. Conservative Francois Fillon, who took third place, has already called on his supporters to vote for Macron.
Macro's economic policy is favorable for the Eurozone and European financial markets. In the implementation of its economic program, the former Minister of Economy centrist Macron plans to reduce taxes for companies and increase public investment by 50 billion euros. Macron also advocates the expansion of economic partnership within the Eurozone, primarily with Germany. The victory of Macron during the first round of elections can provoke the growth of demand for euro and European assets.
According to EPFR Global, the inflow of funds into the market of shares in the region is increasing, the funds have already begun moving to the European market. The macroeconomic statistics of the Eurozone is improving, the stocks have appreciably fallen in price since the beginning of the month, and all points to the probability of activization of buyers of European assets after the elections in France. So, according to the latest data, business activity in France is growing at the fastest pace in almost six years. IHS Markit's purchasing managers' index in March was 57.1 (the value above 50 indicates activity growth).
Nevertheless, one should be careful when opening long positions on the EuroStoxx50 index this week. On Thursday (11:45 GMT) the ECB's interest rate decision will be published in the Eurozone. The modest growth rates of the Eurozone economy remain, the unemployment rate still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell to 1.5% in March against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.
As several ECB leaders announced last week, it is not yet time to make changes in the monetary and credit policy of the bank. "The recovery of the economy is still unstable," despite signs of improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. The next meeting of the ECB will be held on April 26-27, and, according to the statements of key figures of the ECB leadership, the European Central Bank will not change the extra soft monetary policy.
And this will become a supporting factor for the European stock market. At the same time, the victory of Macron can give the European Central Bank an opportunity to consider the question of the beginning of the curtailment of the stimulation of the Eurozone economy. If during the next press conference the head of the ECB Mario Draghi only hints at the possibility of starting the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, the European stock indexes will react with a decrease.
If the ECB declares the continuation of the economic stimulus program, the rally on the European stock markets will continue, given the victory of Macron in the first round of elections and the increase in the probability of his victory in the second round of elections.
 
Support and resistance levels
The EuroStoxx50 index has been actively growing since the beginning of December and began to decline in April ahead of the presidential elections in France. Having opened with a gap up, the EuroStoxx50 index today broke through an important resistance level of 3515.0 (the Fibonacci level is 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) and exceeded this level by 50 points. At the beginning of today's European session, the EuroStoxx50 index trades near the level of 3568.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts turned to long positions. If the positive dynamics continue, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).
An alternative scenario for the decline of the index will be linked both to the results of the second round of elections in France, if Marin Le Pen wins, or to the position of the ECB if the bank signals for the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone.
The signal for opening of the medium-term short positions on the EuroStoxx50 index will be a breakdown of the support level 3400.0 (EMA50 and the lower limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In this case, the reduction targets will be support levels 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Positive dynamics is maintained, while the EuroStoxx50 index is above the levels of 3240.0, 3200.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015).
Support levels: 3515.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0
Resistance levels: 3578.0, 3600.0, 3680.0
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 3510.0 Stop-Loss 3560.0. Take-Profit 3470.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0
Buy Stop 3585.0. Stop-Loss 3545.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 

 

TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:34 am
XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper
25/04/2017
Current Dynamics

The victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France reduced investors' anxiety over the possible victory of the far-right candidate Marin Le Pen in the French elections. As you know, Marin Le Pen acts with a radical program on migration, as well as the continued presence of France within the European Union and NATO.
If Macron succeeds in winning in the second round, this will be the second defeat of the supporters of secession from the European Union after the Netherlands. And this, in turn, will revive the propensity of investors to buy risky assets and lower prices for precious metals.
So, the June gold futures on COMEX fell yesterday in the price to the level of 1277.50 dollars per troy ounce, the lowest closing level since April 7, showing the strongest daily decline since March 10.
The spot price for silver is also declining today, continuing the series of falls from recent monthly and annual highs near the level of 18.55 dollars per troy ounce. The decrease from this level was already 4.2%.
And yet, on the eve of the second round of the presidential elections in France (the vote will be held on May 7), the weakening of the US dollar, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty will contribute to the preservation of demand for precious metals.
Investors are also concerned about the uncertainty regarding the timing of the start of the tax reform of US President Donald Trump, although the plan for reform Trump promised to present this week.
If the Fed starts implementing a plan to reduce its budget and increase the interest rate, as well as the first positive results in the implementation of the new economic policy in the US, the dollar will receive a powerful impetus to resume large-scale growth. This will lead to lower prices for precious metals, including silver.
Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT), the US consumer confidence level for March is published, as well as data on sales of new housing in the US in March. These data are an important indicator of consumer confidence in the growth of the economy and the US real estate market. The increase in sales of houses also contributes to stimulating the accompanying spheres of industry, services, and the labor market. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: the level of consumer confidence will come out with a value of 123.7 (compared to 125.6 in February), sales of new homes in March decreased by 0.5%. If the forecast is confirmed or is worse, the dollar will react with a decline.
In any case, during the publication of data, the volatility in the dollar is expected to grow, including in the pair XAG / USD.
 
Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD continues the almost non-stop decline for the seventh consecutive session.
The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 18.17 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 17.94 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to an important support level of 17.58 (EMA200 on the daily chart And the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The break at the level of 17.58 raises the risk of further reduction of the pair XAG / USD and its return to a downtrend with a long-term target of 15.72 (the low of 2016).
You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing the pair above the level of 17.94.
Support levels: 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Levels of resistance: 17.94, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.77. Stop-Loss 17.92. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.10, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.92. Stop-Loss 17.77. Take-Profit 18.00, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75
 

 
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:22 am
AUD/USD: data on inflation did not meet expectations_26/04/2017
 
Current dynamics

After this morning, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the RBA published the most important inflation indices in Australia (CPI for the first quarter of this year, the RBA index of core inflation by the truncated average method for the first quarter), the Australian dollar declined in the foreign exchange market.
Although the inflation rate returned to the central bank's target range of 2% -3%, the data on the rate of price growth turned out to be weaker than expected. Consumer prices in the first quarter increased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (by 2.1% in annual terms). The forecast provided for an increase in consumer prices by 0.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016 and by 2.3% compared to the same period last year.
According to economists, the acceleration of inflation caused a sharp rise in prices for gasoline. The rise in prices in the long term is likely to remain slowed due to pressure from record low wages growth rates and deterioration of the labor market situation.
The fall in commodity prices in recent years, a fairly high level of unemployment in the country (the last 10 years, unemployment is close to 6.0%), a weak increase in wages of employees, which does not contribute to the growth of consumer spending, as well as weak, according to the RBA , GDP growth - these are the main risks for the Australian economy.
It is likely that interest rates will remain the same for some time.
Another factor put pressure on commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar, this week. The US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.
Now investors will focus on Donald Trump's tax reform plan in the US, which he promised to present today. If the plan turns out to be clear in terms of dates and details, this could lead to an increase in the US dollar throughout the market.
On Thursday - the speech of the Governor of the RBA Philip Lowey. The exact time of his speech has not yet been determined. But, most likely, his speech will not contain anything new about the monetary policy of the RBA. It is likely that the comments of Philip Lowe will not affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.
 
Support and resistance levels
After the publication of inflation indicators, the pair AUD / USD declined during today's Asian session. During the last three trading sessions, the AUD / USD pair is declining. Today, the pair pushed away from the key resistance level 0.7535 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and with the opening of the European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.
Negative dynamics of the pair, it seems, is growing. The breakdown of support levels of 0.7475 (April lows and the lower border of the downward channel on the daily chart), 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of a 23.6% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014) will increase the risks of return to the downtrend of the AUD / USD pair, which began in July 2014 of the year. The medium-term goal of this decline will be the level of 0.7155 (May and December minima of 2016).
 The alternative scenario is related to the further weakening of the US dollar and the return of the pair AUD / USD above resistance levels 0.7535, 0.7570 (EMA200 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart). If this scenario is implemented, the pair AUD / USD will grow with the targets of 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair from July 2014 and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
 The medium-term positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair may recover already when the AUD / USD pair returns to the zone above the 0.7535 level.
Support levels: 0.7475, 0.7460, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7480. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7400, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-loss 0.7480. Take-Profit 0.7535, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840
 

 
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:32 pm
EuroStoxx50: European indices fell from the highs
27/04/2017
Current dynamics

Prior to the publication of the interest rate decision and the ECB's press conference, the major European stock indexes are declining from the new annual highs achieved 3 days ago after the victory of Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France.
The decision on the interest rate of the ECB will be published at 11:45 (GMT). "The recovery of the Eurozone economy is still unstable, despite signs of improving the economic situation," - more recently, ECB executives commented on economists' forecasts about the possibility of raising interest rates and curtailing the QE program in the euro area.
The ECB's main interest rate is currently 0%, the deposit rate for commercial banks is negative and is -0.4%. From the beginning of April, within the framework of the QE program, the ECB plans to purchase European assets worth 60 billion euros by the end of 2017. It is widely expected that today the ECB will not take any action with regard to interest rates. At a subsequent press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to confirm the policy of maintaining the soft monetary policy of the bank. The press conference will begin at 12:30 (GMT).
It is unlikely that the ECB will go to change the QE program on the eve of the second stage of the presidential elections in France, which will be held on May 7. However, some economists believe that at the June meeting, the ECB may announce changes in the current QE program. The Eurozone economy is slowly but still recovering. So, according to the data published today, the confidence index in the industry of the Eurozone in April rose by 2.6 versus +1.3 in March, the index of trust in services in April was +14.2 versus +12.8 in March. The index of sentiment in the economy of the Eurozone in April rose to 109.6 against 108.0 in March, thus reaching its highest level since August 2007. However, unemployment still remains at high levels (about 9.5%), and annual inflation fell in March to 1.5% against 2% in February, again below the ECB's target level.
For the market, it will be a big surprise if Mario Draghi declares that it is possible to consider the issue of curtailing or changing the QE program in the direction of reducing support for the region's economy at the ECB's next meeting. The balance of the ECB at $ 4.5 trillion can surpass the Fed's balance already next week. Reducing the balance will be tantamount to a tightening of the monetary policy of the ECB. In this case, the euro will rise sharply, and European stock indexes will fly down. The situation with the elections in France in this case will take a back seat.
Nevertheless, according to most market participants, today Mario Draghi's rhetoric will remain unchanged soft, and interest rates will remain at the same level. The reaction of European indices to such a decision of the ECB is expected to be restrained-positive.
 
Support and resistance levels
After a sharp rise against the backdrop of Macro's victory in the first round of elections in France, the last three days the EuroStoxx50 index is gradually decreasing. The day before the EuroStoxx50 index reached new highs for the last more than 2.5 years near the mark of 3590.0. Through this level, now passes the upper limit of the newly formed upstream channel on the daily chart.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are still on the buyers’ side, however, on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts the indicators turned to short positions. It is likely that up to the second round of elections in France, the EuroStoxx50 index is unlikely to be able to update the recent highs near the 3590.0 mark.
The most likely scenario - the EuroStoxx50 index will remain in the range between the levels of 3515.0 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015), 3590.0.
The breakthrough of support level 3440.0 (the lower border of the rising channel and EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will open the way to further decrease of the EuroStoxx50 index with medium-term targets of 3325.0 (January highs), 3240.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakthrough to support level 3200.0 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since December 2015) will "close" the upward trend of the EuroStoxx50 index.
If the positive dynamics return again, the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 3680.0 (July highs of 2015).
Support levels: 3515.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0, 3200.0
Resistance levels: 3590.0, 3600.0, 3680.0
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3540.0 Stop-Loss 3595.0. Take-Profit 3515.0, 3470.0, 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3300.0, 3240.0
Buy Stop 3595.0. Stop-Loss 3540.0. Take-Profit 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 

 
TifiaFX
Broj poruka : 76
Points : 269
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:14 pm
NZD/USD: improvement of trade balance indicators
28/04/2017
 
Current dynamics

According to official data released on Friday, the state of trade balance of New Zealand in March compared with the same period last year improved. In March, the trade surplus amounted to NZ $ 332 million against the negative balance in February (-50 million NZ dollars). The improvement of the indicator was ensured by the growth of exports from New Zealand, primarily dairy and meat products to China. According to Tehsin Islam, a representative of the statistics department of the New Zealand government, "China remains to be the main buyer of our export goods, it accounts for a quarter of total exports of dairy products in value terms. In March, exports to China exceeded $ 1 billion New Zealand dollars for the first time since March 2014 ". Not surprisingly, the New Zealand dollar is so responsive to macro statistics from China.
Also on Friday came strong data on business optimism and business activity in New Zealand (11.0 and 37.7%, respectively) for April. Indicators of company confidence indicate a strong growth in the country's economy, which is growing for the eighth consecutive year.
Nevertheless, the New Zealand currency reacted poorly to the positive data presented in the morning. In the Asia-Pacific region, tensions are growing as the situation on the Korean Peninsula worsens. So, in a recent interview with Reuters, US President Donald Trump warned about the likelihood of a "major conflict" with North Korea. It is likely that, down to a reduction in tensions in the region, New Zealand and Australian dollars will be under pressure.
Also, commodity currencies came under pressure after earlier this week the US decided to introduce import duties on wood from Canada. This news testifies to the strengthening of protectionism in world trade by the US, and this has a negative impact on commodity currencies.
Today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT) a report on GDP for the first quarter (preliminary release) is published. A strong report will positively affect the quotations of the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD. According to the forecast, the US annual GDP grew by 1.3% in the first quarter (against 2.1% in the previous quarter). Also at this time, published indices of expenditures on personal consumption, which are important indicators of inflation and the price index of GDP for the first quarter.
At 13:45 (GMT) Chicago PMI is published with an assessment of economic activity in the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, and at 14:00 - consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April.
In view of the importance of the data, a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market is expected at the time of publication. The dynamics of the US dollar and the major dollar pairs in this period of time will depend entirely on macro statistical indicators for the United States.
It is also necessary to take into account that today is the last business day of the week and month before the long weekend (on Monday - bank holiday in view of the celebration of Labor Day on May 1). It is possible to fix long positions of the dollar against commodity currencies, which will cause the growth of their quotations against the US dollar, including in the pair NZD / USD.
 
Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the pair NZD / USD continued to decline, despite the "positive dose" from New Zealand. At the moment, the pair NZD / USD is trading at a strong support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014). At this level are also the minimums of December 2016, and the lower border of the descending channel passes on the daily chart.
The strong negative impulse predominates, and the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions.
From this level it is possible, however, as a retreat, and its breakdown with the acceleration of the descending dynamics.
In case of rebound from the level of 0.6860, the pair NZD / USD may return to the depth of the descending channel with the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.6990 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Between these levels, just the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. The beginning of the implementation of this scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance levels 0.6890, 0.6918.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6860, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began. The level of 0.6860 is the key level (the Fibonacci level is 23.6%) in this correction.
An alternative scenario for the medium-term growth of the NZD / USD pair will be possible only after the pair is consolidated above the key resistance level 0.7050 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Below this level, the negative dynamics of the pair NZD / USD prevails.
 
Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6800, 0.6680
Resistance levels: 0.6890, 0.6918, 0.6990, 0.7050
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6700, 0.6680
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6920, 0.6990, 0.7050
 

 
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