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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:11 pm
XAG/USD: demand for precious metals has increased
09/08/2017
 
Current dynamics

The escalation of geopolitical tensions, provoked by North Korea's threats against the United States, caused a sharp increase in demand for safe haven assets - yen, franc and precious metals. In recent days, North Korea has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the US in the event of a military provocation. Yesterday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. If the plan is implemented, "the United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons", the DPRK said.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and fury that the world has not seen so far".
At the end of yesterday's trading session and with the opening of today's trading day, prices for precious metals soared. The troy ounce of gold has risen today by 7 dollars to 1267.00 dollars, silver - by 0.2 dollars to 16.60 dollars.
The investors' withdrawal from risks in connection with the increased geopolitical tension provoked also a decline in world stock indices and a rise in prices for government bonds.
As long as the situation around North Korea does not calm down, the demand for safe haven assets will continue. The dollar will also remain under pressure, despite strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, which increases the likelihood of further interest rate increases in the US this year.
Precious metals do not bring investment income. However, in the context of increasing economic or political uncertainty, the demand for precious metals as a safe haven is growing. Under conditions of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of precious metals is falling, as the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
Today, investors will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on labor costs and labor productivity in the US (excluding the agricultural sector) for the 2nd quarter. Positive data will support the dollar. Expected to grow by 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
Investors also expect the release of inflation data in the US (on Friday 12:30 GMT) to assess the pace of inflation acceleration after its recent slowdown. The growth of inflation indices can strengthen expectations regarding the increase in interest rates of the Fed, and this is a negative factor for the precious metals market. The probability of another increase in interest rates in the US this year is estimated today at about 46%, according to the CME Group.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of April, the pair XAG / USD is declining in the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of the channel passes near the 14.30 mark (July lows), and the upper one - near the level of 16.80. A little higher, near the 17.00 mark, the resistance level passes (EMA200 on the daily chart). While XAG / USD is below these levels, the downward trend prevails, despite the current upward correction associated with the escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 16.45 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), the descending dynamics will return, and after the breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downlink on the daily chart with targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (the minimum of the global wave of decline in the pair XAG / USD since September 2012).
Support levels: 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 16.43. Stop-Loss 16.68. Take-Profit 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.68. Stop-Loss 16.43. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:33 pm
NZD / USD: monetary policy has not changed
10/08/2017
Current dynamics

As expected, the RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "can be adjusted accordingly." For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation of the value of traded goods, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed."
In response to the publication of the decision on the rate of the pair, the New Zealand dollar / dollar briefly jumped to 0.7370 from 0.7340, but then declined during the Asian session, and at the beginning of the European session it was already trading near the 0.7270 mark.
Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, continue to decline in the foreign exchange market amid the continuing geopolitical tensions in the Asian region. The second day in a row, North Korea is threatening the United States. On Tuesday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. "The United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons," the DPRK declared. US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and the rage that the world has not seen so far." This time, North Korea threatened to "shell out from all sides" the territory of Guam in the coming weeks.
As a result of its 10-day decline, the pair NZD / USD completely leveled its July growth. According to economists, "the current rate is more appropriate to short-term fundamental factors" and "approached its average value over the past year."
As the geopolitical situation in the Asian region stabilizes, the New Zealand dollar will be able to maintain its position in the foreign exchange market due to rising commodity prices, also receiving support from long-term investors who prefer safe long-term investments. Preservation of the current interest rate at 1.75% in the long term will also contribute to this.

Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure. Today, the NZD / USD pair has reached an important support level of 0.7285 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and is developing a downward movement to the level of support
0.7240 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7150, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario is to return to the zone above the level of 0.7350 and resume growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7150
Resistance levels: 0.7285, 0.7350, 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:34 am
Brent: World oil supply grows
11/08/2017
Overview and dynamics

As reported today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply in July increased by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months. The supply of oil in the world increased in July to 98.16 million barrels per day, which is by 500,000 barrels per day more than in the same period last year. OPEC oil production in July increased by 230,000 barrels per day and reached 32.84 million barrels per day, the high of 2017. The increase in OPEC production of the cartel is primarily due to the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from participation in the transaction.
The investors' skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC measures is maintained due to poor compliance with the agreements on the reduction of oil production. All this imposes a negative imprint on the dynamics of oil prices.
Prices fell on Thursday, despite the earlier data from the US Energy Ministry on oil reserves in the US (Wednesday 14:30 GMT). According to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, US oil inventories fell 6.451 million barrels last week, which was the sixth consecutive week.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices.
The US successfully used the situation with a rise in prices against OPEC actions last year and increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset.
At the moment, there are 765 active drilling rigs in the USA. If the number of installations increases again, this will negatively affect oil prices.

 
Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil was unable to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) on Thursday and the second day is going down.
While the price is below the short-term resistance level of 51.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the downside dynamics will increase, and the downside correction target will be the support level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as Fibonacci 61, 8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the price breaks through the key support level of 50.70, then the decline will accelerate, risking again moving into a bearish trend. The targets then will be support levels 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The scenario for growth implies breakdown of the resistance level of 52.90 and an increase to the resistance level of 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs). The signal to growth will be the fixing of the price above the level of 51.85.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 51.85, 52.90, 54.00, 54.75
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 51.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20, 44.50
Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 52.90, 54.00, 54.75
 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:13 pm
XAU/USD: the dollar regains positions
14/08/2017
Current dynamics

Friday's weak inflation data in the US, as well as an escalation in tensions between the US and North Korea, caused the dollar to fall on Friday and the demand for safe haven assets was growing.
As reported by the US Labor Department, in July, consumer prices rose by 0.1% (the forecast was + 0.2%). The index pointed to a worsening of the outlook for price growth in the US, which weakened expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his previously voiced threats to reply North Korea with "fire and fury" apparently sounded "not tough enough." And on Saturday Donald Trump said that the United States is ready to strike North Korea, if it does not stop threatening the United States.
As a result, on Friday, demand for gold continued to remain at high levels.
On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is acceptable. Another Fed spokesman, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that the Fed should wait with higher rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. "We still can not reach the target level of inflation, and the growth of wages remains slow," Kashkari said.
Now investors expect a rate hike in December with a probability of 38% (on Friday the probability was estimated at 47%), according to the CME Group.
Gold, as you know, does not bring interest income. But it is growing in price in periods of low interest rates and political or economic instability in the world.
So far, the demand for it is supported, mainly against the backdrop of domestic political instability in the United States and the tension in relations with the DPRK. As the geopolitical tensions decrease, investors' attention will again shift to economic indicators.
Still, the risk of an increase in the US interest rate in December, despite the low level of inflation, exists. Strong labor market in the US indicates a stable state of the economy in the country.
Tomorrow, investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) are published retail sales indices for July, which are a leading indicator, and indices of export-import prices. Forecast: retail sales increased by 0.3% (against -0.2% in June), which should support the dollar quotes.

 
Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market, and gold is getting cheaper.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts of the pair XAU / USD turned to short positions.
Probably further decline to support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1273.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the case of breakdown of these levels and the development of a downward correction, it is likely that the support level of 1260.00 (the bottom line of the uplink and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will decrease to the support level.
The breakdown of support levels 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1295.00 (the highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels of 1185.00 and 1295.00) and further growth.
So far, against the background of the dollar's recovery, the downward short-term dynamics is dominating.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1295.00
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1285.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00
Buy Stop 1285.00. Stop-Loss 1279.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1295.00
 

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:51 pm
GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation
17/08/2017
Current dynamics

 
As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.
After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.
Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).
The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).
According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.
Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.
In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.

 
Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
 

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:43 pm
EUR/USD: The ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro
18/08/2017
Current dynamics

Despite the decline in the dollar, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure (so far in the short term). Published on Thursday, the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB pointed out that the central bank is concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.
"There were fears about the risk of excessive growth of the euro in the future", - so it was said in the minutes.
The strengthening of the Euro-currency negatively affects the economy of the Eurozone, as it makes European goods less competitive abroad. Weak rates of inflation in the Eurozone also contribute to the ECB's prolonging the stimulus program for the Eurozone economy for at least six months.
As you know, the program QE in the Eurozone ends in December. Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy shows signs of stable growth, which is also due to the ECB, which pursues an extra soft monetary policy, inflation is still far below the target level of the ECB just below 2.0%.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the minutes published on Wednesday from the July Fed meeting. Investors continue to assess the prospects for an increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate in December with a probability of below 40%.
The leadership of the US central bank still can not unanimously decide to raise rates in conditions of slow inflation. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is currently in the grip of the need to maintain a low interest rate in the Eurozone and the Fed's hesitancy in the matter of monetary policy, which makes both currencies vulnerable from this point of view.
The US dollar, meanwhile, declined during the Asian session and at the beginning of the European session.
If we consider that today is the last trading day of the week, then in the second half of the US session, we should expect some strengthening of the US currency against the background of closing short positions on the dollar and fixing profits.
The news background is calm today. Volatility may intensify at the beginning of the US trading session, when at 12:30 (GMT) the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada (for July) is published.

 
Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD is in a downward correction short-term trend since the beginning of August, when strong data was published from the US labor market.
Repeated attempts to test the support level 1.1690 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) have not yet led to its breakdown.
If the EUR / USD decline continues, the breakdown of the support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on 4-hour and weekly charts) will strengthen the risks of a return to the downtrend.
However, only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1150 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will EUR/USD return to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give a clear signal.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline from 1.3900), the EUR / USD is likely to strengthen further. The growth targets will be the levels of 1.1835, 1.1890 (the highs of the year), 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).
Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1630
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.1910, 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1690, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1550
Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180
 

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:51 pm
DJIA: the decline continues
21/08/2017
Current dynamics

After Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems reported on the results, their shares fell significantly, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.2% (274 points) to 21751 points. This was the most significant decline since May 2017. The shares of all 30 companies, traded in DJIA, and all 11 main sectors in the S & P500 index fell.
A portion of the disappointing financial statements of companies, which include large retailers and giants of the technology sector, as well as the terrorist attack in Spain, provoked the strongest intraday drop in the major US stock indices, which was the second this month.
On Monday, there is a continued decline in major US stock indexes, including DJIA. Investors' attention this week will be focused on comments by representatives of world central banks, including Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
In general, the negative mood of investors, the tendency to exit from risky assets and the withdrawal of funds into safe assets prevail. Thus, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 2.202% from 2.196%, gold quotes also remain propped up after last Friday the price of gold exceeded the annual maximum and the mark of 1300.00 dollars per ounce for a short time.
If today the decline in indices continues, it will be the third consecutive week of falling indices. The news background today for the US stock market, in general, is neutral.
Low trading volumes and investor caution on the eve of the Jackson Hole conference increase the likelihood of a short-term spike in volatility and a return of the price to the current range.

 
Support and resistance levels
Having broken through the important short-term support levels 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 21755.0 (EMA200), DJIA found today support at the level of 21650.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The predominant negative short-term dynamics. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
Probably the continuation of the correction decrease to the level of support 21500.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of growth and consolidation above the level of 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), the DJIA will move towards the recent absolute maximum near the level of 22177.0.
If the decline continues, then after the breakdown of the support level of 21500.0, the target may be the support level of 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the level Fibonacci 0% is near the mark of 22000.0). Through the level 20630.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is key to the bullish trend of DJIA.
Support levels: 21710.0, 21650.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21770.0, 21840.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21785.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 21825.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
Sell ​​Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 21785.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:15 pm
USD/CAD: the US dollar is recovering
22/08/2017
Current dynamics

During today's Asian session and at the beginning of the European session, the US dollar is restoring its positions in the foreign exchange market. In recent days, both domestic political uncertainty in the US, as well as ambiguous US economic indicators, have reduced the hopes of investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar that the Federal Reserve will implement the third rate hike this year. According to interest rate futures, on Monday, market participants assessed the likelihood of further increases in US Fed rates this year at 40% versus 43% last month.
From 24 to 26 August in Jackson Hole (USA) will host an annual economic conference, organized by the Fed, which will address the heads of the world's largest central banks. In the center of attention – is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. She is expected to point out how the management of the central bank assesses the situation in the country's economy, and what are the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. If she makes any hints about the possibility of another interest rate hike by the end of the year, despite the low inflation in the US, the dollar will significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar on Monday rose slightly against the US dollar, which was down against the major currencies. The strengthening of the Canadian currency was also due to the reduction in the difference in the yields of government bonds of Canada and the United States.
Today, the US dollar is growing, restoring positions, which is also reflected in the growth of USD / CAD. Today its dynamics can be affected by the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on retail sales in Canada for June.
The index is published monthly by Statistics Canada and estimates the total amount of retail sales. This index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for CAD, the decline in the index will negatively affect CAD.
A slight, almost zero, growth is expected (+ 0.3% vs. + 0.6% in May). If the data is even weaker, the Canadian dollar will fall in the foreign exchange market, including the USD / CAD pair.

 
Support and resistance levels
Late last month, the pair USD / CAD reached its next annual low near support level 1.2420 and returned to the range located between 1.2490 (EMA200) and 1.2740 (EMA144 on the weekly chart, Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascending Trend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700). Near the level of 1.2740 also passes the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart.
In case of consolidation above the level of 1.2635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the USD / CAD growth will resume with the target of 1.2740. A more distant goal is the level of 1.3120 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, EMA200 on the daily chart and the December lows).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and weekly charts turned to long positions.
If the pair continues to decline, the USD / CAD will go to support level 1.2490 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2030 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) will finally break the long-term bullish trend of the pair USD / CAD, which began in September 2012.
Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2490, 1.2420, 1.2170, 1.2030
Resistance levels: 1.2605, 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920, 1.3015, 1.3120, 1.3200
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.2610. Stop-Loss 1.2565. Take-Profit 1.2635, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2785, 1.2800, 1.2860, 1.2920 Sell Stop 1.2565. Stop-Loss 1.2610. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2170
 

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:55 pm
NZD/USD: New Zealand economic growth forecasts revised
23/08/2017
Current dynamics

According to a report published on Tuesday on economic and financial conditions in New Zealand, forecasts for the growth of the New Zealand economy were revised with a slight decrease.
Finance Minister Stephen Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.
The New Zealand dollar is actively declining since the beginning of August. Over the past two days, the NZD / USD pair has declined by about 100 points or by 1.3%.
This is also promoted by the growth of quotations of the US dollar on the eve of the economic conference in Jackson Hole, which will be held on August 24-26. The conference will feature the heads of the world's leading central banks. From the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen is waiting for statements in favor of a third increase in interest rates in the US for the current year.
The dollar fell more than 7% this year, it will have a significant growth space if the Fed's rhetoric points to their tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy.
The growth of the US dollar is also facilitated by the fact that investors are less concerned about the tensions between the US and North Korea, as well as political uncertainty in Washington. Yesterday's comments by Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and Mitch McConnell, leader of the republican majority in the Senate, that the tax reform and raising the public debt limit will be implemented without difficulty, also contribute to improving investor sentiment towards the US currency.
Today (22:45 GMT) important data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance are published. A slight increase in the balance deficit in July (-200 million New Zealand dollars) is expected, which should negatively affect the New Zealand dollar with the confirmation of the forecast. Any change in the state of the foreign trade balance of New Zealand will support the New Zealand currency.

 
Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7325 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and currently trades at the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave Pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7325 and the resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7165
Resistance levels: 0.7255, 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7205. Stop-Loss 0.7255. Take-Profit 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7255. Stop-Loss 0.7205. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7325, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:35 pm
Brent: prices stabilized in the range
24/08/2017
Current dynamics

On Thursday, oil prices showed a slight decrease, without leaving the range between the levels of 53.00, 51.00 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil. A wider range is located between the levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel, in which Brent crude is traded last month.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported a drop in commercial oil and gasoline reserves in the country. Thus, crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels (forecast was -3.375 million barrels), gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week (the forecast was 500,000 barrels). As a result, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Oil futures on the NYMEX closed up by 1.21% at $ 48.41 per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the end of yesterday's trading day was close to $ 52.20 per barrel, which is about $ 1.0 higher than the previous closing price.
Nevertheless, significant price increases are not observed, despite the risks of interruptions in the work of US refineries associated with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and the reduction in oil and oil products in the United States.
Prospects of growth in oil production in the US have a negative impact on oil prices. World oil supply in July, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), rose by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months.
The activity of US oil companies is growing, significantly offsetting OPEC's efforts to reduce oil production and exports.
Today and tomorrow, investors will follow the speeches of the leaders of the Fed and the ECB at a conference in Jackson Hole on the plans of the central banks to tighten monetary policy. If Janet Yellen signals the markets about the possibility of another increase in the interest rate this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. Commodity prices, including oil, will come under pressure in this case.
On Friday at 5:00 pm (GMT), Baker Hughes, the oil service company, will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the US oil sector and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. If the number of installations increases again, this will also negatively affect oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude was in the range between levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel in August. Despite today's decline, the price keeps positive dynamics above the key support levels of 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 50.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of buyers.
If the growth continues, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for the decline involves a breakdown at the level of 50.70. The targets then will be support levels of 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.
Support levels: 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​by the market. Stop-Loss 52.35. Take-Profit 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20
Buy Stop 52.35. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:37 pm
EuroStoxx50: Stabilization before the speech of the head of the ECB
25/08/2017

Market participants took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed Chairman's statement (14:00 GMT) and the ECB head (19:00 GMT).
As follows from the minutes of the ECB meeting of July 20 published last week, the ECB's Governing Council is alarmed by the current strength of the euro. It is likely that the ECB will not rush to tighten the policy. Mario Draghi will try not to disturb the markets and is likely to favor the extension of the QE program and will be concerned about the high cost of the euro. In this case, the European indices will receive support and an incentive to resume growth.
 
Levels of support and resistance
Since May, when the EuroStoxx50 index reached its annual maximum near the 3680.0 mark, a downward correction began. The EuroStoxx50 index fell to support level 3440.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth since July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0).
In case of breakdown of the level 3440.0, the EuroSTOXX50 index will go to the key support level of 3400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of this level increases the risks of further decline and breakdown of the bullish trend.
The reduction targets then can be support levels 3295.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3265.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).
The negative dynamics prevails. The European stock indexes are significantly influenced by the expectation of an early curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, which ends in December. Preferred short positions, until the situation on this issue is clarified, and the QE program will not be extended.
Support levels: 3440.0, 3400.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0
Resistance levels: 3482.0, 3500.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3430.0. Stop-Loss 3480.0. Take-Profit 3390.0, 3325.0, 3295.0, 3265.0
Buy Stop 3480.0. Stop-Loss 3430.0. Take-Profit 3550.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:14 pm
NZD/USD: Janet Yellen did not mention the topic of raising rates
28/08/2017
Current dynamics

The head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, disappointed investors who were betting on the growth of the US dollar, after not speaking last Friday on the topic of monetary policy and not signaling a further increase in the rate.
The US dollar fell sharply on Friday, and 10-year US government bonds rose in price. Their yield on the basis of trading on Friday was 2.169% against 2.194% on Thursday. Gold futures on Friday in the US rose in price by 0.4%, to 1291 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar became the leader of the decline last week after the New Zealand government lowered its forecast for economic growth for 2017-2018. Treasury Secretary Steven Joyce said that in the next four years, the average growth rate of New Zealand's GDP could reach 3%, whereas earlier it was forecasted an average annual growth rate of 3.1%.
The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure also on the eve of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the country, scheduled for September 23. On September 27, the RBNZ regular meeting on monetary policy will be held.
In early August, RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties", monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future", but "can be adjusted accordingly". For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed".
It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the current level of 1.75%, and in the RBNZ will once again confirm the bank's propensity to pursue a soft monetary policy, which will keep the pressure on the New Zealand currency.
For today, the economic calendar is empty. In the course of the American session, a correction is likely on the US dollar against its decline on Friday.
 
Technical analysis
In July, the pair NZD / USD reached a new annual high near the mark of 0.7550 (Fibonacci level of 50% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). However, the further growth of the pair stalled. In the future, as a result of the active decline, NZD / USD broke through the important support levels of 0.7300 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016) and decreased to the level of support 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The pressure on the New Zealand dollar and the NZD / USD pair persists.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
It is likely that the decline will continue to levels 0.7190, 0.7165 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7165, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower range between 0.7550 and 0.6860 levels) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the level of 0.7300 and a resumption of growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level and the upper limit of the uplink on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7220. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7190, 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7220. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:13 pm
Brent: amid the hurricane in the US
29/08/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline actively in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, on oil prices denominated in dollars, so far this fact is reflected little. Much more impact on oil prices had a storm in the US in the Houston area, a hurricane, later a "tropical storm", Harvey. Hurricane caused damage to oil refineries located in this part of the US, leading to their closure. Nearly 30% of the country's oil refining facilities are located on the Texas coast. Also, several offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were closed, accounting for about 22% of offshore oil production in the Gulf. Their closure will negatively affect oil demand in the US, and will also affect world oil prices. According to experts of the oil market, the negative impact of the consequences of the storm can drag on for several weeks, because it will take time to restart the refinery. Even yesterday, futures for Brent crude on ICE Futures fell 1.3% to 51.74 dollars per barrel. Today, oil prices continued to decline. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session was close to $ 51.00 per barrel.
Wednesday (14:30 GMT) will publish weekly data of the Ministry of Energy on oil reserves in the US. Decrease in demand from the refinery will probably cause an increase in inventories, since oil produced earlier and domestically is not being processed.
This can cause pressure on oil prices. Also today, it is worth paying attention to the weekly published data at 20:30 (GMT) on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute, which largely correlates with official data from the US Energy Ministry.
 
Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent oil broke through the short-term support level of 51.65 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and found support today at 50.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). Short-term negative dynamics prevails. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 50.95, 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), the decline may last to the support level of 50.00 (lows August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (year lows). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of sellers.
In case of resumption of growth and breakdown of resistance level 52.20, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 50.95, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Levels of resistance: 51.65, 52.20, 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​by the market. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20
Buy Stop 51.70. Stop-Loss 50.80. Take-Profit 52.00, 52.20, 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:29 pm
EUR/USD: the dollar continues to weaken
30/08/2017
Current dynamics

The sharp increase in EUR / USD, observed from the beginning of the year and, especially, in recent days, is connected both with the weakening of the dollar and with the continuing purchases of the euro. Heads of the Fed and the ECB did not make any hints at the last conference in Jackson Hole about the timing of further interest rate hikes. Investors regarded this as the Fed's tendency to soft monetary policy and that the current euro rate is satisfied with the ECB leaders.
Since the beginning of this year, the trade-weighted index of the euro has increased by more than 7%. This was the best result for the currency since its inception in 1999.
The single European currency receives support and against the backdrop of strengthening the economy of the Eurozone, which is often mentioned by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. Euro since the beginning of the year it has added more than 14% against the dollar. The pair EUR / USD has reached the maximum mark since January 2015.
In the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB, there were "concerns about the rise in value (euro) in the future". Nevertheless, many economists believe that the ECB will begin to wind down the bond purchase program in December this year. The ECB simply does not have assets to buy.
At the same time, the ECB is in a difficult situation, since inflation is below the target level of just under 2.0%. Still, the ECB is likely to have to roll back the stimulus even if the outlook for inflation worsens.
In view of this, it is likely that the euro will continue to grow. Much will depend also on the pace at which the ECB will begin to reduce purchases of assets.
Today we are waiting for the data from the USA. Starting at 12:15 (GMT) a number of important macroeconomic indicators will appear, including the report on employment from ADP for August, data on spending on personal consumption in the US for the second quarter, annual GDP for the second quarter. In this period, a surge in volatility is expected in trading in financial markets, including the EUR / USD pair, which should be taken into account when opening trade positions at this time.
The GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% (against + 2.6% in the first quarter). If the forecast is justified, the dollar will receive support. Meanwhile, the prospect of further weakening of the USD and the growth of the EUR / USD pair remains.
 
Support and resistance levels
Despite the current corrective decline, the pair EUR / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart.
Yesterday EUR / USD set another 4-month record, reaching 1.2070 and returning to the levels of December 2014.
If the growth resumes, the targets will be the levels of 1.2050 (low of July 2012), 1.2070, 1.2180 (the Fibonacci level of 50% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of EUR / USD return to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). The breakthrough of support level 1.1620 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) increases the risk of EUR / USD returning to a downward global trend.
Support levels: 1.1890, 1.1835, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.1920. Stop-Loss 1.1985. Take-Profit 1.1890, 1.1835, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Buy Stop 1.1985. Stop-Loss 1.1920. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:48 pm
S&P500: indexes rose against the backdrop of strong macro data
31/08/2017
 
Current dynamics

Strong macro data, received from the US at the beginning of today's US session, caused the growth of the main US stock indices. Nasdaq Composite climbed 18.00 points (0.30%), S & P500 rose 6.34 points (0.26%), DJIA started trading with an increase of 47.83 points (0.22%).
Personal incomes of Americans in July increased by 0.4% (the forecast was + 0.3%), personal expenses (indicator, estimating household costs) in July, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, increased by 0.3% (forecast was +0, 4%). The increase in income raises the Americans' confidence in the government and economy.
Consumer spending accounts for the bulk of US GDP. Published on Thursday, the report showed that the annual growth in US GDP in the 2nd quarter of this year was 3%. Presented by the US Department of Commerce data indicate a positive momentum in the US economy in the second half of the year.
However, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (RFE), the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, rose 0.1% in July from the previous month after a lack of growth in June and a drop of 0.1% in May. Compared to the same period last year, the index grew by 1.4%, which is below the target level of the Fed, which is 2%.
Presented today by the US Department of Labor data indicate a steady increase in employment. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 236,000 in the week of August 20-26. The number of primary applications has fluctuated historically in the past few years. They remain below 300,000 for 130 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. As a percentage of labor, the indicator of layoffs is at the lowest level since the 1960s.
Secondary applications for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 1.942 million. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong labor market, which is approaching the state of maximum employment.
Against the backdrop of the data, US stock indexes rose. The growth of the indices continues, therefore, for the fourth trading session in a row, and for the seventh month in a row, which indicates the confidence of investors in the strength of the American economy.
At the same time, the weakness of inflationary pressures in the US economy makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year.
Thus, the data presented today contribute to the further growth of the US stock market. It seems that the consequences of Hurricane Harvey, the geopolitical tensions associated with the terrorist attacks in Europe and the provocations with missile launches by North Korea are receding into the background. And, in general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.
 
Support and resistance levels
Twice this month, pushing away from the support level of 2418.0 (the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the S & P500 index keeps positive dynamics and is traded in the uplink on the weekly chart. There is a possibility of further growth.
The alternative scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the short-term support level 2450.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the continuation of the decline with the targets 2405.0 (June-July low and the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 2390.0 (March highs).
The upward trend in the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support levels of 2365.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2325.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016). About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking.
Support levels: 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2365.0, 2325.0
Resistance levels: 2473.0, 2481.0, 2489.0, 2500.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2454.0. Stop-Loss 2474.0. Objectives 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2365.0, 2325.0
Buy Stop 2474.0. Stop-Loss 2454.0. Objectives 2481.0, 2489.0, 2500.0

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:01 pm
GBP/USD: amid talks on Brexit
04/09/2017
Current dynamics

The GDP growth in the UK this year has significantly slowed. Economic growth in the 1st and 2nd quarters was half that of the last three months of 2016.
High inflation, exceeding the target level of the Bank of England, continues to reduce the disposable income of the British, which reduces domestic demand. The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by only 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter). In a situation of shrinking domestic demand, British companies will have to increase capital investment.
The decline in consumer spending and the slowdown in the UK economy, which are taking place against the background of Brexit, will help the Bank of England continue to adhere to extra soft monetary policy. As you know, last summer the Bank of England lowered the interest rate to a record level of 0.25%, the lowest for the last 300 years.
The slowdown in the UK economy, the protracted Brexit talks and the unclear prospects for the monetary policy of the UK central bank continue to have a negative impact on the pound quotes. It is likely that the pound will remain under pressure at the beginning of this week before the debate in parliament on Thursday.
On Friday (11:30 GMT + 3), the National Statistical Office of Great Britain will publish July data on industrial production and manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, which will allow us to assess the state of the British economy at the beginning of the third quarter. It is expected that the data will come with almost zero growth, which will also negatively affect the quotes of the pound.
Today, most of the US financial markets are closed due to the celebration of Labor Day. The low activity of traders and low trading volumes in the foreign exchange market are expected. The growth of volatility in the foreign exchange market will begin tomorrow, when during the Asian session (02:01 GMT + 3) the British Retail Consortium (BRC) will publish a report on retail sales for August, and at 07:30 (GMT + 3) the RBA will publish a decision on interest rate in Australia.
 
Support and resistance levels
Despite continued pressure on the pound, the pair GBP / USD remains positive, trading above support levels 1.2935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart.
Breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2980 will create the prerequisites for the recovery of the mid-term upward correction trend. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
A fall below support level 1.2860 will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2912, 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2990. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:44 pm
NZD/USD: rebound from the support level of 0.7165
05/09/2017
Current dynamics

After yesterday, marked by sluggish dynamics and low volumes, today we see an increase in volatility and the resumption of a decline in the US dollar.
The continuing tension in the Asia-Pacific region continues to stimulate purchases of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, and franc.
There is also an increase in the prices of oil and other commodities, along with which the quotations of commodity currencies are growing.
The New Zealand dollar is also growing today against the US dollar, despite a number of fundamental factors. This is the continuing commitment of the RBNZ to conducting soft monetary policy, the uncertainty surrounding the elections in New Zealand scheduled for September 23, geopolitical tensions in the region due to the continuing provocations by North Korea against the US and Japan.
For a stable recovery in the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed", the RBNZ said recently.
We are waiting for today data from the auction of dairy products, the publication of which is scheduled for the period after 14:00 (GMT). The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with a value of -0.4%. If the prices for milk powder decrease again, it will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.
 
Support and resistance levels
Today, NZD / USD is trading in the range between support levels of 0.7165 (EMA200), 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A breakthrough in one direction or another may determine the direction of further medium-term movement of the NZD / USD pair.
The fastening above the levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016), 0.7270 (EMA200 on 4-hour, weekly charts) will confirm the return of the upward dynamics.
In the alternative scenario and in case of a breakdown of the level 0.7165, a further decline to the support levels 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.
Support level: 0.7165
Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7170. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7160, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860
Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7170. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:06 pm
DJIA: US stock markets remain under pressure
06/09/2017
Current dynamics

Received yesterday, during the US trading session, weak macro data on the US contributed to a sharp intraday decline in major US stock indexes.
The US Department of Commerce on Tuesday reported that production orders in July fell 3.3% compared to June, while orders for durable goods fell by 6.8% compared to the previous month.
The aggravation of geopolitical tension after North Korea's nuclear tests on Sunday, as well as the new hurricane "Irma" that is approaching Florida, also have a negative impact on US stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 234 points yesterday, the S & P500 - by 18 points, Nasdaq Composite fell by 59 points.
Shares of financial companies became outsiders in the S & P500. So, JP Morgan shares lost 2.4% yesterday, Bank of America - 3.2%. Shares of technological company United Technologies in the structure of DJIA on Tuesday fell by 5.7%.
The ICE dollar index closed Tuesday at around 92.25, the lowest level since August 29.
Today, US stock markets remain under pressure. Again, the increased demand for assets-seekers - yen, franc, gold. Gold futures on COMEX are traded with an increase of 0.3%, at 1340 dollars per troy ounce, reaching an annual maximum.
Recently, trades are taking place with sharp fluctuations. Investors are increasingly worried about how long the bull market will last. While the market outlook is generally positive, there are many risk factors. This is the preservation, and even growth, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the domestic political problems in the US and the White House, the weak macro data coming from the US. In the United States, Hurricane Harvey has not yet recovered from Hurricane Hurricane as he races on Florida, another powerful hurricane, Irma, is approaching.
Thus, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets noticeably decreases, which is reflected in the decline in major US stock indexes.
 
Support and resistance levels
Today, the DJIA index is trading in a range between two important levels, the breakthrough of which can determine the direction of the further movement of DJIA in the short term. In case of breakdown of the support level 21720.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), one can consider the possibility of opening medium-term short positions.
The target of the decrease may be support levels 20810.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark 22177.0).
Breakdown of key support levels 20750.0, 20630.0 significantly strengthens the risks of completion of the long-term bullish trend of DJIA.
At the same time, DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes through the mark of 22350.0. Here, the upper border of the channel passes on the weekly chart. In case of the breakdown of the nearest strong short-term resistance level of 21810.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the growth of DJIA will resume, and the targets will be the levels of 22060.0, 2177.0 (highs of the year and August), 22350.0.
Support levels: 21720.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21810.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21850.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0
Sell ​​Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21850.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:26 pm
EUR/USD: focus on ECB decisions
07/09/2017
Current dynamics

According to the data published on Thursday, the growth of the Eurozone economy in the second quarter (in annual terms) was 2.3% (the forecast was + 2.2%). The data show that the economy of the Eurozone grew faster than in early 2017.
In the 1st quarter, according to GDP growth, the Eurozone outperformed the US, and in the second quarter, growth accelerated.
This data came out on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on the interest rate (at 11:45 GMT). It is expected that the rates will remain at the same level. A little later (12:30 GMT) the ECB press conference will begin.
It is likely that following the meeting of the Governing Council, the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, will signal that the bank will begin to reduce the program for the purchase of assets, the amount of which is 2.3 trillion euros.
Prospects for the growth of the Eurozone economy are becoming increasingly positive. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains well below the target level set by the central bank.
ECB executives decide what to do with the asset purchase program in conditions of low inflation and the limited availability of available for purchase assets on the stock market. The ECB may postpone a decision on this issue.
Nevertheless, the euro is growing on expectations of the ECB's statement about the curtailment of the incentive program. The euro is still trading below the five-year average. At the same time, there are positive changes in the Eurozone economy.
Investors' opinions as to whether the ECB will today indicate the possibility of curtailing the QE program were divided approximately 50/50.
 
Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.2100 mark.
In the period from 11:45 to 13:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market. The reaction of the market to Mario Draghi's speech can be unpredictable. And so far it is unclear what Mario Draghi will say, but he can develop the markets.
The lower boundary of the channel passes through the support level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
If Mario Draghi declares the start and the deadline for the curtailment of the QE program, the euro will become sharply stronger on the foreign exchange market. In this case, the targets for the EUR / USD growth will be the levels of 1.2050 (July 2012 low), 1.2100.00, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
If the ECB postpones the solution of the issue or extends the terms of QE, the euro will fall under pressure.
The breakdown of the support level 1.1780 will create prerequisites for a deeper decline in EUR / USD and the opening of short positions. So far, long positions on EUR / USD are relevant.
Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.2010. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
 Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2370

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:04 pm
USD/JPY: the dollar continues to fall
08/09/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline. Concerns about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data and doubts about the prospects for raising the Federal Reserve's interest rates helped the dollar to fall to its lowest level for more than two and a half years.
The ICE dollar index today decreased by 0.5%, reaching a minimum of 33 months.
The fall in the USD / JPY began in July, as expectations for new stimulus measures in the US weakened, including lower taxes and increased spending on infrastructure. Recently, increased geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea, forced investors to buy more reliable currencies such as gold, franc, yen. This Saturday in North Korea will be the anniversary of the founding of the state. A year ago, on that day, the military tested nuclear weapons.
History can repeat itself. But this time it could be like the next launch of the missile towards Japan, as well as a test explosion of nuclear weapons in the DPRK.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump again cautioned against North Korea, saying that "North Korea behaves badly and needs to be stopped". "The military actions against North Korea - this is one of the options for the development of events", according to Trump. Military confrontation "definitely can happen".
The dollar today fell by 0.7% against the yen and by 0.6% against the Swiss franc. Gold prices rose by 0.7% to 1,357.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors are also worried that the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" may negatively affect the economic performance of the United States in the short term. This may also have a negative impact on expectations of an increase in FRS interest rates. The increase in interest rates, as a rule, provides support to the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed doubts about the need for such a step on the part of the Fed on the background of low inflation in the US.
The decline in the dollar is also due to a decrease in the yield of US government bonds. Today, the yield of 10-year US government bonds continued to decline and, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2,027% from the level of 2,061%, recorded on Thursday.
Against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the dollar and growth in demand for safe haven assets, the US dollar / Japanese yen has reached a new 10-month low, breaking through the 108.00 level.
It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many investors will want to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which will cause its corrective growth. Nevertheless, the negative attitude to the dollar persists. Probably further decline in the dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.
 
Technical analysis
Since July, the active decline of the pair USD / JPY has started, which broke through the key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).
A powerful negative impulse, based on a large-scale weakening of the dollar, pushes the pair USD / JPY towards support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the monthly chart).
Apparently, only near the level of 105.00 it is possible to stop the fall of the USD / JPY.
An alternative scenario involves the return of the USD / JPY in the zone above the level of 108.80 and the resumption of growth with targets at levels 110.10, 110.90.
Nevertheless, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further fall of the USD / JPY.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts also give signals for sales.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10, 110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
 
Trading recommendations

Buy Stop. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90
Sell ​​in the market. Stop Loss. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
 

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:25 pm
USD/CHF: on the eve of the NBS meeting
11/09/2017
Current dynamics

The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.
As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investors continue buying francs.
The Swiss franc, along with gold, the yen, is often used by investors as an asylum during periods of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system.
Nevertheless, for the export-oriented Swiss economy, the franc's exchange rate is extremely important. A large share of its exports falls to the Eurozone, China, the United States, and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods, making them less competitive.
Realizing this, the NBS seeks to contain the growth of its national currency.
 The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors.
Also, the NBS periodically conducts currency interventions with franc sales, of which it never declares either before or after the intervention.
At the end of July, the pair USD / CHF reached the level of 0.9445, after which its sharp, unexplained growth began, while the dollar was actively declining in the currency market against other major currencies. It is likely that the Swiss National Bank conducted a currency intervention. As a result, the USD/CHF grew by about 3.5%, reaching 0.9770 in August.
Today, USD/CHF is again trading near the level of 0.9445, from which the pair started to grow at the end of July.
On Thursday, a meeting of the NBS on monetary policy will take place, and at 08:30 (GMT) the NBS's decision on the interest rate, which at the moment is (-0.75%), will be published.
It is necessary to be extremely cautious when opening short positions for a pair of USD/CHF, since unexpected decisions from the NBS are possible on the background of the newly strengthened franc.
 
Support and resistance levels
After reaching the annual low at 0.9445 at the end of July, the pair USD / CHF skyrocketed during several trading sessions and reached the level of 0.9770 in the middle of last month (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).
Nevertheless, in the future, the pair USD / CHF again moved into a downtrend against the background of a large-scale falling dollar.
Today, trading opened with a sharp increase in the dollar in currency pairs with the yen, the franc, as well as the decline in gold prices. Probably, this was due to the fact that the DPRK did not start the missile once again, as it was expected on September 9, when the anniversary of the founding of the state was celebrated.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the dollar persists. It is not excluded that already today during the American session the pair USD / CHF decline will resume.
You also need to be careful on the eve of the NBS meeting this week. Unexpected decisions on the part of the NBS or new currency interventions with franc sales are possible, which will cause another sharp growth of the USD / CHF.
In this case, technical analysis fades into the background under the pressure of fundamental factors.
The first signal to the growth of USD / CHF will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, the growth targets will be the resistance levels 0.9600 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and the level of 1.0300) 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.9770 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
In the case of the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, the decline in the pair USD / CHF may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level of 0.9300. This level will become the goal if the USD/CHF is resumed.
The strong negative dynamics prevails.
[b]Support levels: 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9770
 
Trading Scenarios[/b]
Buy Stop 0.9520. Stop-Loss 0.9460. Take-Profit 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9770
Sell ​​Stop 0.9460. Stop-Loss 0.9520. Take-Profit 0.9400, 0.9300

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:39 pm
GBP/USD: inflation in the UK rose again
12/09/2017
Current dynamics

At the beginning of today's European session, after the Office of National Statistics of Great Britain was presented a report on consumer inflation, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. The data show that the inflationary pressure shows almost no signs of slowing down.
According to the data presented, consumer inflation in the UK in August (in annual terms) was 2.9% (forecast was + 2.8% and + 2.6% in July).
The central bank of Great Britain is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the Bank of England has faced a problem of weak economic growth and wages, and on the other hand, with rising prices, which are on the rise due to the sharp drop in the British pound that began after the referendum on the withdrawal of the country from the EU in June 2016.
Inflation significantly exceeds the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, salaries grow much more slowly, not keeping up with inflation and cutting the level of consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, which affects British buyers, already has a negative impact on the UK economy, whose growth is determined primarily by internal factors.
On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on wages and unemployment will be presented, and on Thursday the meeting of the Bank of England will be held. At 11:00 (GMT) also on Thursday will be published a decision on the interest rate in the UK.
It is expected that the leaders of the Bank of England will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Some economists expect that only early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
On Thursday, especially at 11:00 (GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but also throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

 
Technical Analysis
The GBP / USD pair is almost continuously growing over the course of six trading sessions.
After the release of inflation data, the pair GBP / USD today broke through the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the fall of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3260 (annual and August high) and continues grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
The upper limit of the ascending channels runs near the mark 1.3390, just below the level of 1.3460 (the July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts turned to long positions.
In case of consolidation above the level of 1.3210, further growth is likely. The alternative scenario involves breakdown of the support level of 1.3210 and a further decline in the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2980 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
A decline below support level 1.2870 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will strengthen the risk of a GBP / USD return in a downtrend.
Support levels: 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3390, 1.3460
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3360, 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:59 pm
AUD/USD: strong employment data expected
13/09/2017
Current dynamics

Tomorrow is expected to publish important data assessing the state of the Australian economy.
At 01:00 (GMT), the consumer price inflation expectations index from the Melbourne Institute will be published, reflecting consumer expectations for future inflation for the next 12 months. Previous rate is   +4.2%. If the current figure for September is higher, then the likelihood of an increase in the RBA rate will increase, which will have a positive effect on the Australian currency.
At 01:30 (GMT), data from the Australian labor market for August will be released, which may exceed expectations that the increase in jobs in August will be 20,000 above the long-term average of 15,000, and the unemployment rate in August will be 5, 6% (in the previous month, the number of new jobs also turned out to be higher than the consensus forecast of 20,000, and unemployment was also at 5.6%).
Strong Australian employment data may force investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the start of rate hikes by the central bank, which can support the national currency.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia retained the key rate at a record low of 1.5%. "The growth of the exchange rate will become a factor of limited inflationary pressure in the economy, and, apparently, will cause a slowdown in the growth of economic activity and inflation compared to current forecasts", RBA Governor Philip Lowey said yesterday.
In combination with the recovery of Australia's GDP in the second quarter, strong data from the labor market can force the RBA to change its position from neutral to a tendency to tighten policies.
Also tomorrow (02:00 GMT) important macro data will be published from China (retail sales and level of industrial production for August).
China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Therefore, positive news from China also positively affects the currencies of the Pacific region, including the Australian dollar.
It is expected positive macro statistics from China, which will also support the Australian dollar.
Thus, there are several strong fundamental factors that may tomorrow provoke the growth of the Australian dollar, including against the US dollar, which recently shows a large decline in the foreign exchange market and is under pressure amid growing pessimism of investors regarding the possibility of a further increase in the interest rate in the US, as well as the continuing tensions between the US and North Korea and the political contradictions in Washington.
 
Support and resistance levels
AUD/USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.8130.
 Long positions are still relevant. While the AUD / USD pair is above the short-term support levels of 0.8010 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the bulls are not threatened.
Moreover, with a correction decrease to support level 0.8010, it is possible to increase long positions with stops below the level of 0.7980.
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of short-term support level 0.7935. In this case, a further corrective decrease to the support levels of 0.7850 is possible (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7680 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
Support levels: 0.8010, 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Resistance levels: 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.8010. Stop-Loss 0.8055. Take-Profit 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Buy Stop 0.8055. Stop-Loss 0.8010. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:59 pm
FTSE100: The Bank of England decided to keep the current interest rate at the same level
14/09/2017
Current dynamics

Today was a busy day of publication of important macro-economic news. After the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the deposit rate at -0.75%, the franc declined in the foreign exchange market. According to the NBS, "the franc remains highly overvalued", and currency interventions with the franc's sales are still "necessary".
At 11:00 (GMT), the decision of the Bank of England was published, according to which the central bank of Great Britain decided to keep the current interest rate at the previous level of 0.25%, the lowest level for the last 300 years.
Contradictory data from the UK, published recently, including high inflation, improvement in the labor market and increased production activity, but weak wage growth, made it necessary for the Bank of England not to rush to make a decision on changing monetary policy.
The pound reacted to the Bank of England's decision by strengthening, while the London Stock Exchange index declined. Two of the 9 members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for an immediate increase in the interest rate amid accelerated inflation, which hit British incomes, which also reflected a decline in consumer spending.
The UK economy is focused on the domestic market, and the decline in consumer spending negatively affects the growth of the country's GDP.
Nevertheless, the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit still requires support in the form of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
The propensity of some members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to tighten monetary policy gives rise to an opinion among economists that the Bank of England may soon begin to phase out the extra soft monetary policy.
Some economists expect that early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
And this is a negative factor for the British stock market, and a positive one for the pound.

 
Support and resistance levels
In response to the decision of the Bank of England on the rate, the FTSE100 index fell sharply, failing to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 7395.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Immediately after the publication of the decision, the FTSE100 index within half an hour decreased by 0.8% to support level 7335.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
If the negative dynamics will increase, then the nearest targets of reducing the FTSE100 will be support levels of 7290.0 (summer lows), 7265.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 7265.0 will accelerate the decline of the index within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 7090.0 (the low of February, the highs of October).
Breakdown of the level 7090.0 and further decline will mean a turn and end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.
The scenario for the resumption of growth implies the return of the FTSE100 index above the local resistance level of 7436.0.
While the Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, the scenario for the preservation and development of the bullish trend remains relevant.
Support levels: 7335.0, 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Resistance levels: 7395.0, 7400.0, 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​on the market. Stop-Loss 7410.0. Take-Profit 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Buy Stop 7410.0. Stop-Loss 7290.0. Take-Profit 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:23 pm
Brent: prices are rising again
15/09/2017
Current dynamics

During today's Asian session, the Japanese broadcaster NHK announced the next launch of the North Korean ballistic missile towards Japan. Investors reacted rather sluggishly to the next launch of the missile. The price of oil in response to this message has slightly decreased. However, in general, quotations were stable, and during the European session, the growth of oil prices resumed.
A sharp increase in oil prices is observed for the second week in a row. The tension between the United States and North Korea has somewhat decreased. Concerns about the effects of hurricanes in the United States and the political contradictions in Washington have also weakened a bit.
American refineries have been restoring their work after the hurricanes, and the demand for oil in the US is gradually recovering.
On Tuesday, its monthly report was released by OPEC. According to this document, the cartel's output in August fell for the first time since April. In addition, OPEC countries adhered to the agreement on oil production reduction more strictly. OPEC and countries outside the cartel are discussing the possibility of extending the agreement after March next year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday presented a report according to which the world oil supply in August fell for the first time in the last 4 months, by 720,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the IEA raised the forecast for the growth of world oil demand in 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day. Optimistic forecasts for oil demand in the coming months and data on the fall of world oil reserves contribute to higher oil prices.
Today at 17:00 (GMT) the American oil service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US. This report is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. The previous report indicated a reduction in the number of active drilling platforms due to Hurricane Harvey (up to 756 against 759 weeks earlier and 768 two weeks ago). If the number of active drilling rigs decreases again, this will also contribute to the growth of oil quotes.
 
 
Support and resistance levels
This week, the price of Brent crude oil broke through an important resistance level of 54.70
(EMA200 on the weekly chart) and continues to grow in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper border of which passes near the mark of 58.45 (highs of 2017).
The fundamental factors speak in favor of maintaining the positive dynamics of oil prices and the likelihood of their further growth.
The breakthrough of resistance level 55.65 (EMA50 on the monthly chart) will create prerequisites for further price growth with the target of 58.45 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.
The reduction scenario involves a breakdown of the 54.70 support level and a further price fall with targets at support levels of 52.90 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 52.45 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support levels 51.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) will mean a price return to bearish trend, and the decline may extend to the level of support at 50.00 (the lows of August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
So far, positive dynamics have prevailed.
Support levels: 55.00, 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 55.65, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 54.90. Stop-Loss 55.80. Take-Profit 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70
Buy Stop 55.80. Stop-Loss 54.90. Take-Profit 56.00, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:01 pm
USD/JPY: Dollar grows against yen
18/09/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of the traders this week will be the meetings of the central banks of the United States and Japan. Wednesday (18:00 GMT) will publish the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Also, economic forecasts of the Federal Reserve will be presented, including for 2020. At 18:30 (GMT), the FRS press conference will begin, and investors will closely follow the speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen to catch signals about further plans by the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to CME Group forecasts, the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged is 98.6%.
Meanwhile, the US dollar / Japanese yen pair is trading today with an increase of 0.5%, at 111.30 after reaching the highest level in almost eight weeks at 111.41. Concerns about political risks have weakened.
On Friday, North Korea launched another missile, but on Monday the market ignores this fact. In addition, in Japan today is a state holiday, and the market is experiencing a reduction in liquidity and trading volumes on the yen.
On Thursday (02:00 GMT) will be published the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the main interest rate in Japan will remain at the same level (-0.1%).
The Bank of Japan adheres to an extra soft monetary policy. As repeatedly stated by the representatives of the bank, in order to accelerate inflation, which is near zero values, the Bank of Japan can expand the measures of quantitative and qualitative easing.
Nevertheless, since the end of 2016, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar, including against the backdrop of investors buying yen as a safe haven.
This worries the monetary authorities of Japan, whose economy is focused, mainly, on the export of high-tech products.
At 06:30 (GMT) on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will hold a press conference. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda will present to investors the CBR's position on the issue of monetary policy and will assess the prospects for economic activity in the country and the course of monetary policy.
In this regard, the pair USD / JPY is expected to increase volatility on Wednesday from 18:00 (GMT) and on Thursday from 02:00 to 07:00 (GMT).

 
Support and resistance levels
A week earlier, amid growing tension between the United States and North Korea, the pair USD / JPY fell to the support level of 107.30 (the lows of September and the year, as well as the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the market ignored the next launch of the North Korean missile last Friday. As a result, USD / JPY broke through resistance level 110.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), and today it makes an attempt to gain a foothold above the important level of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart ).
Today, the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the foreign exchange market.
Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
If the pair USD / JPY continues to grow, the immediate target will be level 113.00 (50% Fibonacci level and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The reduction scenario implies the return of USD / JPY to the level of 110.15 and the resumption of the decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
Support levels: 110.90, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 110.80. Take-Profit 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell ​​Stop 110.80. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:09 pm
NZD/USD: volatility is expected to increase
19/09/2017
Current dynamics

The main events of the week started are the meetings of the central banks of the USA and Japan. The two-day meeting of the Fed starts today, and will end on Wednesday with a publication (at 18:00 GMT) of interest rate decisions and a press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT).
On Thursday, a more favorable than expected consumer price index in the US was published, which strengthened investors' expectations about the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year at 58% against the 41% level noted last week.
On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to announce plans to reduce its portfolio of mortgage and government bonds by $ 4.5 trillion, but will leave interest rates unchanged.
If the leaders of the Fed express confidence in the restoration of economic growth in the US, it will support the dollar.
Concerning the New Zealand dollar, it is worth noting that volatility in trading on it could rise sharply on Monday, when the results of the general election in New Zealand, which will be held on Saturday, will be known. According to the latest opinion poll, the gap between the candidates remains very small. 42.4% of the respondents are ready to cast their votes for the National Party, and 40.4% for the opposition Labor Party. If the ruling National Party wins, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication after 13:00 (GMT) of the data from the auction of dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with the value of + 0.3%.
It is expected that the price of milk powder will not change or fall by 2%, which will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.

 
Support and resistance levels
Today, NZD/USD is making another attempt to break through the resistance level of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
At the same time, NZD / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7550 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline from 0.8800, which began in July 2014, December 2016).
 Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were turned to long positions.
In case of breaking through the local resistance level of 0.7345, the growth of NZD / USD pair will continue with the target at the level of 0.7550.
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), further decrease to the support levels 0.7200 (EMA144), 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is possible.
The breakdown at 0.7175 raises the risks of a return to a downtrend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).
The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7345, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:11 pm
S&P500: sluggish index dynamics
20/09/2017
Current dynamics

Trading on world stock exchanges today is sluggish. Market participants took a wait-and-see position before the Fed decision on rates. Investors almost did not react to the speech of President Donald Trump at the UN in which he threatened to "completely destroy" North Korea if the US had to defend itself or its allies. It seems that investors do not believe in such a scenario of development of the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula.
Today, the focus of market participants is the Fed meeting. The US Central Bank is expected to announce a reduction in the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars. However, the rates will remain at the current level in the range of 1.00-1.25%.
The change in the Fed's forecasts regarding the dynamics of interest rates for the next year is the most interesting issue for investors. If the prospects for raising rates worsen, the dollar may be under pressure. At the same time, the US stock markets will receive an additional impetus to the continuation of the bullish trend.
Another point that deserves attention in assessing the prospects and dynamics of stock indices. Republicans in the US Senate prepared a preliminary draft agreement on the budget, which laid down the parameters of the tax reform. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics.
Adoption of the budget is a prerequisite for passage in the Senate of the law on taxes by a simple majority vote, without the support of representatives of a democratic party.
In case of successful outcome of voting on this issue, the US stock market will respond with growth, as the tax reform of the administration of Donald Trump is designed to reduce taxes for US companies.
In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.

 
Support and resistance levels
After Monday's index S & P500 updated the annual high near the mark of 2506.0, today the index of the second day is trading in a narrow range near this level.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers’ side.
Short-term downward correction is possible to support levels 2496.0 (EMA144), 2491.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). Deeper correction is allowed to the support level 2472.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
The upward trend in the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2378.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.
  About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth.
Support levels: 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0
Resistance levels: 2506.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2502.0. Stop-Loss 2507.0. Objectives 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0
Buy Stop 2507.0 Stop-Loss 2502.0. Objectives 2525.0, 2550.0

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:15 pm
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is leading the decline against the US dollar
21/09/2017
Current dynamics

As Philip Lowie, the RBA's governor, said today, the bank expects "a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, which should help accelerate the growth of salaries", adding that "based on the current situation, we are aimed at further reducing unemployment and are on the way to the middle of the target inflation range 2% -3%”.
According to Lowie, the RBA's optimistic forecasts regarding inflation and GDP growth in 2018 look quite realistic. So, the GDP growth of Australia in 2018 should be 3.0%, unemployment will decrease, and the growth rate of wages should accelerate.
The minutes of the September 5 meeting of the RBA on Tuesday show that the scale of employment growth indicates that the economy of the country has overcome all the difficulties associated with changes in activity in the mining sector.
Nevertheless, today the Australian dollar – is in the leaders of decline against the US dollar. As you know, yesterday the Fed made it clear that it could raise interest rates again this year and next month it will start selling previously purchased treasury bonds. At the moment, the portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is about 4.5 trillion dollars, and reducing the balance of the Fed will be tantamount to tightening monetary policy.
The prospect of raising interest rates is negative for commodities, the price of which is expressed in US dollars. The probability of an increase in rates in 2017, according to the CME Group, is now more than 68% against 41% a week earlier.
Australia is the largest exporter of primary commodities, including iron ore, liquefied gas. The strategic partner of Australia and the buyer of its primary commodities is China.
Today, Standard & Poor's downgraded China's credit rating to A + from AA-. Now the S & amp; P rating corresponds to the Moody's rating, lowered in May, and the Fitch rating, which was lowered in 2013. And it also affects the Australian dollar, putting pressure on him.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT) a number of macro data will be published, including the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, which contains data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result higher than expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to grow to 300,000 from 284,000 in the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar.
 Nevertheless, the pressure on the AUD / USD pair in the absence of important news from this country is likely to remain until the end of the week.

 
Support and resistance levels
The AUD/USD today broke through two important support levels of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7950 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and develops a downward correction to the support level of 0.7905 ( EMA50 on the daily chart).
Deeper downward correction, while maintaining a general upward positive medium-term dynamics, is allowed up to the support level of 0.7850 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830 level). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
Despite today's decline, the pair AUD / USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 0.8160 (50% Fibonacci level).
The return above the level of 0.8000 will cause the resumption of purchases of the pair AUD / USD.
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7850.
In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7700 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the pair AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Support levels: 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7700
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7960. Take-Profit 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800
Buy Stop 0.7960. Stop-Loss 0.7930. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:57 pm
XAU/USD: the price of gold has stopped falling
22/09/2017
Current dynamics

North Korea once again threatened to test a nuclear bomb, and again quotations of gold prices crawled up. Foreign Minister Li Yong-ho said on Thursday that his country could conduct the most powerful test of a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. This threat came in response to a speech by President Donald Trump at the UN, which said that if the US or its allies were threatened, the United States could completely destroy North Korea.
Geopolitical tensions are one of the main factors in the growth of gold prices. And today the threat of a new aggravation of the geopolitical situation on the Korean peninsula outweighs another important fundamental factor - expectations of a further increase in the interest rate in the United States.
As you know, the Fed signaled on Wednesday that it still expects another increase in interest rates before the end of this year, and plans to begin a gradual reduction in its assets portfolio in October.
According to the CME, investors are currently assessing the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the end of the year at about 70%, while as recently as last week - less than 40%.
Assets deemed reliable, such as the yen, franc, gold, came under pressure following Fed statements. Gold fell in price yesterday to 1290.00 dollars per ounce, approaching the minimum since the end of August.
With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 13:45 (GMT) will be published indices (preliminary values) of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors of the US (for September). It is expected that the indices will come out with slight deviations from the values ​​for the previous month. Nevertheless, the values ​​of the indicators are well above 50, which is a positive factor for the US dollar. If the data prove to be better than the forecast values, the dollar will get a good support, including in the pair XAU/USD.

 
Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today and during the Asian session, the price of gold has resumed growth.
At the beginning of the European session, the pair XAU / USD is trading near the 1295.00 mark, through which the support level passes and the EMA50 line on the daily chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on different time frames show a multidirectional dynamics.
It is likely that in the short term, with a decrease in geopolitical tensions, the growth of the dollar will continue, and the price of gold will remain under pressure, again until the next aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world and on the Korean Peninsula.
The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD.
In the case of consolidation below the level of 1295.00, the target of the decline will be support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1262.00 (EMA200, the lower limit of the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts).
 The breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50.0% of the correction to the fall wave from July 2016, EMA144 on the weekly chart) will provoke further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 1304.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of fastening above the resistance level 1312.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the growth of the pair XAU / USD will resume with the nearest target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). In this case, the upward trend of XAU / USD, which began in January 2016, will resume.
Support levels: 1295.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1289.00. Stop-Loss 1302.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1302.00. Stop-Loss 1289.00. Take-Profit 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:07 pm
EuroStoxx50: after the elections in Germany
25/09/2017
Current dynamics

After the elections in Germany, held last weekend, the euro is traded with a decrease of 0.4%, to 1.1880. Investors analyze the results of the elections, and the auctions on the world stock exchanges are multidirectional.
Angela Merkel secured a fourth term in the Chancellor's chair, however, the party headed by her "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) will receive 33% of the vote in the German parliament, this is the weakest result for this party since 1949. None of the parties won a parliamentary majority. The surprise was that the extremely right-wing party "Alternative for Germany" won seats in the parliament. Now the victorious Christian Democratic Union will be forced to form a coalition, most likely with the Free Democratic Party and the "green", which will create some political uncertainty in Germany, whose economy is the largest in the entire economy of the Eurozone.
The yield of 10-year government bonds in Germany fell to 0.445% today from the level of 0.450%, noted on Friday. The StoxxEurope600 index gained 0.1% at the beginning of the session, the DAX30 and EuroSTOXX50 indexes also slightly increased at the beginning of the European session. All European stock indexes, in contrast to the British FTSE100 and American indices, retain positive dynamics.
Later today (13:00 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi should make a speech. It is unlikely that he will say anything new about the monetary policy in the Eurozone. Although, there may be surprises. Mario Draghi is famous for being able to develop markets. Most likely, Mario Draghi will again decide to support the European stock market and remind us of the ECB's inclination to soft politics.
A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve are also scheduled for today. Among the speakers - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dadley, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the Committee on Open Markets of the Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans.
By the way, the representative of the Federal Reserve John Williams said on Friday that the Fed is likely to raise the key rate in December, but it will very slowly raise the key rate over the next two years, as well as the fact that the neutral interest rate, in his opinion, is at 2.5%.
 
Support and resistance levels
After in May the EuroStoxx50 index reached the annual maximum near the 3680.0 mark, a downward correction began against the background of the strengthening of the euro. The EuroStoxx50 index fell to the level of 3400.0. In the current month, the EuroStoxx50 index was able to completely "beat off" the losses of the previous two months, and at the moment EuroStoxx50 is trading near the 3535.0 mark.
Nevertheless, the negative dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index may again return.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions. Sooner or later, the ECB will have to return to consideration of the issue of curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone, and this is a negative strong fundamental factor.
While the EuroStoxx50 is trading above the 3485.0 support level (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), bulls can be calm.
The first signal for the trend reversal and the opening of short positions will be a breakdown of the support level of 3505.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of support levels 3415.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 3400.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bearish trend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth wave from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for growth is related to the breakdown of the local resistance level of 3555.0 and further strengthening with the target at the level of 3590.0.
For now, short positions are preferable until the situation around the QE program becomes clear.
Support levels: 3505.0, 3485.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Resistance levels: 3555.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3518.0. Stop-Loss 3555.0. Take-Profit 3505.0, 3485.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Buy Stop 3555.0. Stop-Loss 3518.0. Take-Profit 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:27 pm
GBP/USD: pound decreased on data
29/09/2017
Current dynamics

As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview with the BBC, the central bank of the UK will raise the key interest rate if the UK economy continues to move the current rate.
"If the economy will move the current course, then it may be appropriate to raise rates", - said Carney. This increase, in his opinion, could take place quite soon.
The pound reacted rather weakly to this statement of Mark Carney. Moreover, at the beginning of the European session, the pound declined after the published data showed that the current account deficit of the UK's balance of payments in the second quarter significantly exceeded the forecast (16.00 billion pounds), reaching 23.2 billion pounds. At the same time, GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 0.3%.
Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD closes the month and the third quarter with a gain, despite the decline for the second week in a row.
 The expectation of an early interest rate increase in the UK contributes to the purchase of the pound and the growth of its quotes. Earlier, the Bank of England repeatedly signaled that it was preparing for the first more than a 10-year rate hike to limit inflation. Many economists expect that the first increase may take place in November.
For today, another performance by Mark Carney (14:45 GMT) is planned. From it, participants in financial markets are waiting to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the central bank of Great Britain. If Mark Carney touches on the topic of monetary policy and confirms the plans of the Bank of England for a rapid increase in the interest rate in the UK, the pound will once again strengthen in the currency market, including the GBP / USD pair.
Of the news for today, we also expect data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published a report of the US Department of Commerce with data on personal income / expenditure of Americans and price indices (for August). If the data prove to be better than forecasted values ​​(slight growth of indicators is expected), the dollar will grow on the foreign exchange market.

 
Support and resistance levels
Today, the GBP / USD pair continues its corrective decline after active growth at the beginning of the month. Yesterday, GBP / USD broke the short-term support level 1.3437 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline to support levels 1.3235 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in wave , which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.
The breakdown of these levels will cause a deeper correction to the support level of 1.3135 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
While the pair GBP / USD is trading above support level 1.2960 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP / USD remains.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3437, the resumption of growth is likely with the targets of 1.3260 (highs of August), 1.3460 (July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit), 1.3630, 1.3780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.3375, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.3345. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3345. Take-Profit 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:50 pm
Brent: gasoline stocks rose
04/10/2017
Current dynamics

As the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday in its weekly report on oil and petroleum products, crude oil inventories in the USA fell by 4.1 million barrels over the past week, while gasoline stocks increased by 4.2 million barrels, which significantly exceeded forecasts of analysts of the oil market. The growth in gasoline stocks signals a forthcoming drop in demand for oil from US refineries, which is a negative factor for oil prices.
During today's Asian session, oil prices fell to nearly 2-week lows, while WTI oil traded near a psychologically important level of $ 50 per barrel. November futures for light sweet crude on the NYMEX traded at $ 50.10 per barrel, with a decrease of $ 0.32 per barrel. December futures for Brent crude fell 0.48% to 55.73 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude was at the beginning of today's European session near the mark of $ 55.50 per barrel.
After last week, the price of Brent crude oil has reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 58.80, for the seventh consecutive day the price is falling. Investors record profits after oil prices in the third quarter jumped by more than 12%.
Investors also assess signs of increased oil production. OPEC's production in September was 32.86 million barrels a day, up from the previous month and above the agreed aggregate production ceiling of the cartel (just under 32 million barrels per day), which indicates a violation of OPEC's agreement to cut production.
On the other hand, American producers are resuming production growth, taking advantage of the situation with rising prices. According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks, to 750 units. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.
Another point, negative for the dynamics of oil prices, is the seasonal decline in demand for oil in the autumn period.
The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If he also points to the growth of oil products, primarily gasoline, then oil prices will continue to decline.

 
Support and resistance levels
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts give signals to short positions.
The price for Brent crude oil is falling to the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour, weekly charts).
An alternative scenario will be associated with a price return to the zone above the level of 55.70 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and EMA50 on the monthly chart).
The immediate goal in case of resumption of growth is level 56.60. The next medium-term target will be the level of resistance at 62.00, near which there are EMA144, EMA200 lines on the monthly chart. But you can talk about this goal only after the price will update the annual maximum near the level of 58.80.
So far, negative dynamics have prevailed. If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).
Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 55.85. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 55.85. Stop-Loss 55.20. Take-Profit 56.60, 57.50, 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 62.00
 

 
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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 112
Points : 366
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:26 pm
USD/CHF: the dollar is stable
05/10/2017
Current dynamics

As reported today by the Federal Office of Statistics of Switzerland, the CPI of Switzerland in September increased by 0.2% and 0.7% in annual terms (forecast was + 0.6% and + 0.5% in August). The consumer price index measures the average change in prices for all goods and a service purchased by households for personal consumption, and is a key indicator of inflation. The Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of extra soft monetary policy and traditionally declares about the overvaluation of the Swiss franc and its high exchange rate.
The Swiss franc has reacted with a decline in the publication of data, including against the dollar, which remains the leader in the foreign exchange market, pending the publication on Friday of key data on the labor market in the US for September.
Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.
Also, investors are interested in whom US President Donald Trump recommends to the position of the head of the Federal Reserve after the term of office of the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen expires in February.
The candidatures of the current Fed governor Jerome Powell and former manager Kevin Warsh are being considered. Unlike Powell, Warsh is an ardent critic of the Fed and an opponent of the quantitative easing program. Kevin Warsh is known as an opponent of super-soft monetary policy, while Jerome Powell is a supporter of Yellen.
The change in the leadership of the US central bank can significantly affect the prospects for monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy usually provides support to the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors seeking to profitability.
Also today, volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply from 11:30 (GMT), when information is published from the ECB's September meeting on monetary policy. The information contained in the protocols can shed light on the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone.
At 13:10, 13:15, 14:00 (GMT), speeches of FRS management members Jerome Powell, John Williams and Patrick Harker are scheduled. It is likely that they will also speak in favor of another increase in the interest rate in the US before the end of the year, which the dollar will support.

 
Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trading near the key resistance levels 0.9765 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.9770 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300).
Concerns about geopolitical tensions have declined, and the dollar has received support from the Fed, which confirmed its intention to raise the rate in December, and from positive US macro data coming in recently.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
Breakdown of resistance levels 0.9765, 0.9770 will provoke further growth of USD / CHF with targets at the levels of 0.9840, 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
The alternative scenario involves breakdown of support levels 0.9730 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and further decline with targets at support levels 0.9650 (Fibonacci level 23.6% and EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 0.9300 (lower limit downlink on the weekly chart).
So far, long positions are preferable.
Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9770, 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9780. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875
Sell ​​Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9780. Take-Profit 0.9700, 0.9670, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
 

 
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