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TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:28 pm
DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
30/10/2017
Current dynamics

This month, the main US stock indexes are closing in a positive territory, with a decent increase. On Friday, the indices reached new highs after the US received strong macro data. According to the Ministry of Trade, the gross domestic product, the most comprehensive indicator of all goods and services produced in the US, grew by 3% in the third quarter (the forecast was +2.5%). The growth of GDP was not hampered by hurricanes, because of which a number of large enterprises were closed.
Last week, many US companies reported good financial results. Outstanding results of activity of many large corporations contributed to the growth of the stock market. So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.1% to 23434.19 points. Strong growth in the technological sector helped Nasdaq Composite to increase by 2.2% to 6701.26 points, and the S & P500 - by 0.8% to 2581.07 points. Nasdaq has already reached the 61st new maximum this year, the last time such a number of record marks was recorded in 1999.
American stock indexes continued to grow actively after earlier this month the US Senate and Congress approved a draft budget submitted by the presidential administration. Now Republicans will be able to carry out their plan for reforming the tax code, suggesting significantly lowering taxes for companies and many individuals, without the support of democrats. The proposed measures will support economic growth.
In general, the positive dynamics of US stock indices, including the DJIA index, remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. Probably further growth, not excluding descending, but short-term corrections.
Data on retail sales, industrial production, orders for durable goods and company sentiment, as well as strong GDP, coupled with positive reports from companies and the success of the presidential administration in implementing economic reforms in the US contribute to maintaining the positive dynamics of the stock market.
From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of inflation indicators (spending on personal consumption, personal income / spending of Americans) for September, which will cause the growth of volatility in financial markets.
On Wednesday, the meeting of the Committee on Federal Open Market Operations will take place. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 18:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%. Apparently, the Fed leaders will again note the rapid recovery of economic data after the hurricanes, which will also positively affect the stock indices.
 
Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0
 

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:28 am
USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy
31/10/2017

 
Today, the Bank of Japan has decided not to change the current monetary policy and to maintain the key rate on deposits - at the level of -0.1%. The yen reacted quite restrainedly to this decision, which was, in general, the expected investors. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference that the bank will adhere to its plan of buying shares. "At the moment I do not think that it is necessary to change anything in the policy of managing the yield curve", Kuroda said.
For the second month in a row, the USD/JPY is developing an upward trend. A strong positive momentum continues to push the USD/JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
Today, the pair USD / JPY is trading in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, near the support level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and the level of 99.90).
The signal to open short positions will be the break of the short-term support level of 112.45 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart). The goal of corrective decline is the key support level of 111.45 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart).
Nevertheless, while the USD/JPY is trading above the level of 111.45, its positive medium-term dynamics remains. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 114.40 (October highs and the upper line of the range formed between the levels 114.40, 108.10), the target of the growth will be the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
Support levels: 113.10, 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:32 am
DJIA: financial markets are waiting important events
02/11/2017
Current dynamics

For several days in a row, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range, while maintaining, in general, a positive dynamic.
As it became known, on Saturday Trump stopped on the candidacy of Powell. He is a Republican and since 2010 has been one of the central bank governors, well aware of the Fed's activities "from within". Powell is considered to be a supporter of the actions of the current head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, and is less inclined to aggressively tighten monetary and credit policy than other candidates. In his opinion, the Fed's actions to raise interest rates "should be carried out gradually, while the development of the economic situation in the country roughly corresponds to expectations". The appointment of Powell is likely to mean continuity in the conduct of monetary policy and, perhaps, a slight easing of measures to regulate financial markets.
In addition, the Fed on Wednesday, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled that it could raise them one more time this year. Until the end of the year, another meeting of the Fed is scheduled, which should be held December 12-13.
"Economic activity is growing at a strong pace, despite the obstacles, made by hurricanes," the Fed said in a statement following the meeting that ended on Wednesday.
Markets with a high degree of confidence expect a rate hike in December.
At the beginning of the European session, the dollar partially recovered from the initial losses, but remained on the negative territory to most other major currencies. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2.371% from 2.378% recorded on Wednesday, and investors, just in case, buy gold in case of unforeseen events.
Today investors are waiting for a busy day. The Bank of England is expected to raise the key interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, while Republicans in the United States are preparing to publish a plan for changing the taxation system.
At 12:00 (GMT), the Bank of England's interest rate decision will be published, and at 12:30 the Bank of England head, Mark Carney, will make an explanation of the bank's further plans.
Thus, today, volatility in the financial markets is expected to grow rapidly. Nevertheless, the US stock market is expected to retain a positive momentum. In addition, analysts closely monitor corporate reporting, which many regard as the main driver of the rally in the stock markets this year

 
Support and resistance levels
Last month DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the mark 23460.0. Since January 2016 DJIA has been growing steadily. Especially remarkable are the last 8 almost recoilless weeks of growth.
 Positive dynamics is maintained, and at the beginning of today's European session, the index is trading near the mark of 23400.0. In case of breakthrough of resistance level 23460.0, DJIA growth will continue until the price "gropes" for new resistance levels.
Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels 22900.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 22720.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of short-term support level of 23340.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
So far, the DJIA index is trading above the key support levels of 21610.0 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and Fibonacci 0% is near the mark 23460.0), 21460.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), its long-term positive dynamics persists.
Support levels: 23340.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0
Resistance levels: 23460.0
 
 Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:11 pm
GBP / USD: on the eve of NFP publication
03/11/2017
Current dynamics

The index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in October was 55.6 (forecast was 53.4, in September PMI for the UK services sector was 53.6). Such data was presented today by the Royal Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics. This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the services sector of the UK and does not have such a strong impact on GDP, as PMI in the manufacturing sector. Despite the strong performance, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented. Investors continue to assess yesterday's decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the speech of the head of the bank Mark Carney.
As you know, the rate was raised to 0.5% from 0.25%, for the first time in the last 10 years, which was not a surprise. Two of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden and John Cunliffe voted against the decision, remaining dissatisfied with the low growth in the British salaries and the decline in domestic spending. The UK economy is largely oriented to the domestic market, and a weak growth or decrease in domestic consumption costs negatively affects the country's GDP growth.
The minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England also indicated the need for two stages of raising the rate by the same amount until 2020. In response, the rate of the pound and UK government bonds fell. On Thursday, the pound fell to the dollar by 1.4%.
The uncertainty that emerged after the vote for secession from the EU in June 2016 continues to have a negative impact on the country's economy. According to the forecast of the Bank of England, in 2018 and in subsequent years, GDP growth will be 1.7%.
Meanwhile, on Friday, the index of the dollar WSJ, assessing its rate to 16 currencies, grew by 0.1%. Investors continue to assess the details of the Republican project and the appointment of Jerome Powell to the post of head of the Fed.
Today, investors are preparing to publish (at 12:30 GMT) data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in October. This report is a key indicator of the state of the US economy, and favorable data will be taken into account by the Fed in the decision to raise rates at the meeting on December 13. It is expected that the number of jobs (indicator NFP) in October increased by 312,000. In September, for the first time in seven years, there was a decrease in the number of new jobs (by 33,000), which is explained by hurricanes.
If the data is confirmed, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If the data prove to be much weaker, for example, below 150,000 new jobs, the dollar will react with a decline throughout the currency market. In any case, a surge in volatility is expected in the period of publication of data from the labor market. Often there is a sharp jump in the dollar in one direction and no less sharp subsequent rollback. Many traders in the US call the day of publication of data on the labor market "pay day".
Also, important US macro data (business activity indices in the services sector and production orders) will be published at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT), which can become a generator of either a rollback after a strong movement on the NFP, or an incentive to strengthen the dollar's movement to the same side.
 
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3030. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3030. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3740, 1.3970, 1.4100

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:59 am
NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
07/11/2017
Current dynamics

Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar received support after New Zealand's finance minister Grant Robertson said he did not want to include targeting of the national currency in the new responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
As it became known, the new government of New Zealand intends to new evaluate the policy of the RBNZ. At the first stage, changes will be recommended to the RBNZ policy aimed at increasing employment in New Zealand, and changes will be offered regarding the RBNZ leadership. Decisions in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, while the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
It is still not clear how the planned changes in the activities of the RBNZ will affect the quotations of the New Zealand currency. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
A survey of business circles conducted last week in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The last two weeks there has been a recovery of the New Zealand dollar, which became the leader of the fall last month after the results of the general elections in New Zealand, held at the end of September, became known.
Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD/USD is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar and, therefore, the decline in commodity prices and the quotations of commodity currencies, which include the New Zealand dollar.
The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market as against the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against the background of the appointment of a new Fed governor, who will take office in February next year. According to some economists, under the leadership of the new head of the Fed can raise rates not three, but four times in 2018. It is assumed that at the next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12-13, the interest rate will be increased by 0.25%. In the future, the Fed may raise the rate quarterly, starting in March 2018.
Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the further reduction of the NZD / USD.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -1% (against the previous value of -2.4%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, therefore, a decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7140, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270
 

TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:10 pm
Brent: prices remain on mid-2015 highs
08/11/2017
Current dynamics

Quotations of oil futures fell on Tuesday, however, they remained on the mid-2015 highs. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.53%, to 63.35 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 63.55 dollars per barrel after the day before the price reached the high of 2017 near the mark of 64.45 dollars per barrel.
Oil prices at the beginning of the week rose to their highest levels since 2015 due to the fact that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of more than 50 people on suspicion of corruption, including members of the royal family, ministers and big businessmen.
 Oil prices also received support after Yemeni hussites rebels launched a ballistic missile in the vicinity of Riyadh, which was shot down in the vicinity of the capital. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which supports the hussites, intensified. Both countries are members of OPEC.
Investors are concerned that the power struggle in Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, brings uncertainty to the market, and numerous conflicts in the Middle East can lead to disruptions in oil supplies.
Also, the rise in prices is fueled by the expectation that at the November meeting, OPEC will extend the deal. As you know, last year, OPEC and other oil exporters, including Russia, entered into an agreement to reduce total production by 1.8 million barrels a day. In Vienna on November 30, OPEC will hold a meeting, within which the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production, which expires in March 2018, will be discussed.
Today, traders are waiting for data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. The weekly EIA report will be published at 15.30 (GMT).
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 520,000 barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 3.1 million barrels, according to the API report.
There is a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. The next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side. Long positions are preferred.
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 62.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:26 pm
XAU/USD: demand for safe assets increased
09/11/2017
Current dynamics

Mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, including members of the royal family, a missile attack on this country by Yemeni rebels, as well as the appearance of risks of slipping in the implementation of the plans of the presidential administration for tax reform, provoked purchase of gold as a safe haven.
December gold futures on COMEX finished trading on Wednesday with an increase of 0.6%, at $ 1,283.70 per troy ounce.
Reports in the press that the US Republican Party can make changes to its tax reform plan or postpone it for a year, provoked a decline in quotations of the dollar. Some economists believe that tax reform can spur the growth of the US economy and allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations for raising rates tend to put pressure on gold, which can not compete with more profitable assets with rising borrowing costs.
Under conditions of a soft monetary policy in the US and against the backdrop of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, the price of gold, as a rule, is growing.
As a result, gold prices on Wednesday closed at 2-week highs, and with the opening of today's trading day quotes on it are rising again.
So, the spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1284.00 dollars per troy ounce.
Of the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 13:30 (GMT) of weekly data on the labor market (number of applications for unemployment benefits) for the United States. According to the forecast, a slight increase in the indicator is expected - up to 231,000 versus 229,000 for the previous period. However, this figure remains below 300,000 for almost 140 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong US labor market.
The stable state of the labor market in the US and the low level of unemployment (just above 4%) is a powerful argument for the Fed in considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the US. And this is a downward factor for the price of gold.
According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in about 97%.

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, making an attempt to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level at 1283.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Through the mark of 1283.00 also passes the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart.
If the price is fixed above the local resistance level of 1287.00 (weekly highs), risk of the returning XAU/USD to the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%) grows.
The reverse scenario involves a breakdown of the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the drop in the wave from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decline to support levels of 1267.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the XAU/USD returning to the downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, monthly charts went to the side of sellers.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1283.00, 1287.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1281.00. Stop-Loss 1286.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1286.00. Stop-Loss 1281.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:53 pm
AUD/USD: RBA is in indecision
10/11/2017
Overview and dynamics

After earlier in the week the leadership of the RBA again decided to leave the key rate at 1.5%, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. The rate remains at this level since August 2016, and the central bank will most likely leave it unchanged until mid-2018.
The longer the RBA will remain idle, while many central banks raise interest rates, the stronger the Australian dollar will fall.
Despite the fact that Australian economic data draws a contradictory picture, the RBA is confident in accelerating GDP growth over time. In the coming years, the central bank expects to accelerate the annual GDP growth to 3%, which is almost double the current rate. The Australian economy for the current year has created more than a million jobs, which led to a drop in unemployment. At the same time, indicators of conditions for doing business and business confidence have peaked in the last ten years.
On the other hand, inflation data for the 3rd quarter were not particularly impressive. Core inflation, according to the RBA, will not reach the lower end of the target range of 2% -3% until mid-2019. Retail sales in the middle of the year fell sharply, and a slowdown in house prices could undermine consumer confidence.
Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a difficult situation. It can not raise interest rates with weak inflation and high levels of consumer debt, but it can not reduce them because of fears of increasing risks of destabilizing the financial system.
Many economists believe that the RBA will return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the country not earlier than mid-2019.
And this, amid a large-scale strengthening of the US dollar due to the expectations of a phased tightening of monetary policy in the US, creates the conditions for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7755, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

 
Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

 
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:51 pm
Brent: Support and resistance levels
13/11/2017

 
There remains a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. If growth continues, the next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers side. Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short positions is possible after the return of the price under the support level of 62.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal is the support level of 59.30 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
And only if the price returns to the level of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 62.90, 62.35, 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 59.30, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

 
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 62.30. Stop-Loss 64.50. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 64.50. Stop-Loss 62.30. Take-Profit 65.00, 65.30, 66.00
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:44 pm
GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
14/11/2017
Current dynamics

After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:41 pm
AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
15/11/2017
Current dynamics

Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
 
Support and resistance levels
AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:06 pm
GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the range
16/11/2017
Current dynamics

Unexpectedly grown in October, retail sales have supported the British currency.
According to data published on Thursday, retail sales in the UK increased 0.3% in October (the forecast was + 0.1%). In September, as compared to August, sales decreased by 0.7%. It is noteworthy that the most significant increase in October was the sale of second-hand items. Whether the British are moving to a more economical regime due to the weakening of the pound against the background of rising inflation, whether the residents of the UK have grown interested in antiques in terms of its historical value, which, on the contrary, indicates an increase in their welfare. However, compared to October last year, retail sales for the first time since early 2013 decreased (by 0.3%).
This year, the growth of the UK economy slowed significantly, as consumer expenses are under pressure exerted by inflation accelerated as a result of the fall of the pound after voting for an exit from the EU.
Last week, the European Commission lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit.
The statistics presented on Tuesday showed that inflation in the UK in October, as in September, rose to 3.0%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than salaries, which mean that consumer spending will remain low-key. This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure, even though at the beginning of the month the Bank of England raised its interest rate due to a galloping inflation after the referendum on Brexit. Investors do not believe in the possibility of accelerating the growth of the British economy, as evidenced by the fall, the second week, in a row of the British stock index FTSE. And in the leaders of the fall are shares of British companies that build their business inside the country.
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said that the central bank will monitor how the economy reacts to the rate hike in November. It is likely that the Bank of England will not raise rates again in the near future, given the uncertainty associated with Brexit.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is restoring its positions today in the foreign exchange market. Macroeconomic indicators remain positive, and growth continues in the corporate sector of the US economy.
Today, the US House of Representatives must pass a vote on the tax bill. Investors will closely monitor the results of voting. Any delay or reduction in the scale of tax cuts can damage to the dollar.
Also today we are waiting for the publication of important macro statistics from the USA. Among the data - primary applications for unemployment (changes in the number of applications for the past week), indices of import / export prices for October, the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for October. If the US strong macro statistics comes out, the dollar will continue to recover.
The publication of the data is scheduled for 13:30, 14:15 (GMT), and at 14:00, 14:10, 14:30, 17:30, speeches of the representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will begin, which again may cause volatility in the pound trade and the dollar, if they touch upon the subject of monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States.

 
Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3220. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3220. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:08 pm
Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
17/11/2017
Current dynamics

The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).

 
Support and resistance levels
A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

 
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:18 pm
GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
20/11/2017
Current dynamics

Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.

 
  Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Yesterday at 11:49 am
NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
21/11/2017
Current dynamics

The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

 
  Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270
 
 
Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100
 

 
avatar
TifiaFX
Number of messages : 114
Points : 370
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Year : 56

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Today at 12:51 pm
S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
22/11/2017
Current dynamics

World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
"We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0

 


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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