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Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue May 30, 2017 12:29 pm
AUD/USD: attention to retail sales data
30/05/2017
 
Current dynamics

The Australian dollar has recently remained one of the weakest against the US dollar. Despite the fact that earlier in the month the RBA retained the interest rate in Australia at 1.5%, among market participants the opinion is growing that the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to a record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak market Labor. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.
From the protocol published at the beginning of the month since the last meeting of the RBA, it follows that the bank as a whole is still optimistic about the situation in the Australian economy. However, according to the bank, "an increase in the interest rate will complicate the correction of the economy."
On Thursday, important macro data for Australia will be published, including retail sales for April and companies' investments for the first quarter. A slight, almost zero growth in the level of retail sales is expected in April (+ 0.3%). Another weak data on sales will strengthen the opinion of market participants that the interest rate in Australia will soon be lowered.
The RBA's restrained position on the rate in Australia and, conversely, the Fed's positive view on the process of raising the interest rate in the US strengthen the position of sellers of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
The negative medium-term dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains.
 
Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics at different time intervals show mixed dynamics.
Nevertheless, the pair AUD / USD continues to remain within the downward channel on the daily chart, trading below the important resistance levels 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014), 0.7470 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
The nearest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November minima and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).
Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the pair AUD / USD prevails.
 
Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7460, 0.7470, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7465. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7465. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed May 31, 2017 12:40 pm
EuroStoxx50: decline in the fifth consecutive session
31/05/2017
Current dynamics

It seems that the main European stock indexes can finish this week in a negative territory. The election of the president of France is already behind, and the positive momentum begins to fade as weak macro statistics from the Eurozone arrive.
ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this week confirmed that economic recovery is accelerating, but core inflation is still too weak to change the monetary policy of the bank. Here and today in the Eurozone came some macro statistics, which confirm the words of Mario Draghi. So, the preliminary index of consumer prices (CPI) of the Eurozone in May grew by 1.4% (against the forecast of + 1.5% and + 1.9% in April). Unemployment in the Eurozone in April fell by 0.1%, but still remains high (9.3%).
Decrease in indices is observed throughout the world. So, the US stock indexes on Tuesday fell under the pressure of shares of oil and gas and financial companies. The oil and gas subindex in the S & P500 showed the worst results for the day, falling by 1.3%. The European StoxxEurope600 index lost another 0.3% on Tuesday, with banks and insurance companies leading the decline. The EuroStoxx50 index was down yesterday for the fifth consecutive session.
At the beginning of today's European trading session, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 3554.0, however, is under pressure from incoming weak macro statistics for the Eurozone.
As has been repeatedly announced by the leaders, the ECB is unlikely to go on winding up the extra soft monetary policy at the moment. The ECB management believes that the growth of the Eurozone economy is still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. So far, this supports European indices. And still, among investors, there is talk that the ECB may announce the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone. The ECB's next meeting on monetary policy will be held on June 8. As ECB leaders said earlier, the rate hike will not begin earlier than the quantitative easing program, at which the European Central Bank will buy European assets worth 60 billion euros a month, will be completed.
 
Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month against the backdrop of the election of the new French president, the EuroStoxx50 index reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 3680.0. After that, a gradual decline in the index started, and at the moment the EuroStoxx50 index is traded at the short-term support level of 3550.0 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
If the EuroStoxx50 index falls further, the next target will be the support level of 3525.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The level is strong enough. In general, the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains. In case of rebound from the level of 3525.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume. At least, the ECB's propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy contributes to this.
Medium-term short positions will become relevant only after the EuroStoxx50 index falls below the level of 3500.0 (March and April highs on the eve of the first round of presidential elections in France). The reduction targets will be support levels 3435.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016), 3380.0 (EMA144), 3325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 3525.0, 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0
Resistance levels: 3580.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 3520.0 Stop-Loss 3590.0. Take-Profit 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0
Buy Stop 3590.0. Stop-Loss 3520.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:20 pm
XAG/USD: pending publication of data from the labor market
02/06/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of attention of all participants of financial markets today is the publication of data from the US labor market, which is scheduled for 12:30 (GMT). Very positive data are expected. Thus, according to the forecast it is expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will be 0.2% (against 0.3% in April), unemployment will not grow (4.4% against 4.4% in April).
But perhaps the main focus will be on Non-Farm Payrolls (the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy).
Yesterday Automatic Data Processing Inc. And Moody's Analytics reported data that in May the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 253,000, which is significantly better than the forecast (185,000 and 174,000 in the previous month). This is the highest growth in the number of jobs since 2014.
Recent positive macro data from the US significantly strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% on June 13-14. So, positive ADP data on employment contributed to the growth of the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.225% from 2.198% recorded on Wednesday.
Investors are not so much worried about slipping into plans to reform the tax system and stimulate budget spending in the US, focusing on macroeconomic indicators. So, the index of business activity ISM published in the manufacturing sector (for May) released yesterday with a value of 54.9 (the forecast was 54.5 and 54.8 in April). The index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector of the US economy is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. Along with the data from ADP, the publication of the ISM index further stimulated the closing of short positions in the dollar on the eve of today's NFP publication.
The Fed pays particular attention to data on the number of jobs, and by many investors they are perceived as the most important indicator of the state of the American economy. Now, many investors expect the Fed to raise rates more rapidly.
That's the president of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today, that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.
If the data from the labor market, which are published today, really "do not disappoint", then the dollar will receive a powerful positive impulse before the Fed meeting on June 13-14. Then the market participants will have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors. Precious metals, which do not bring interest income, become cheaper in the conditions of the rate increase; the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
With disappointing data on the US labor market, the dollar may weaken significantly in the foreign exchange market, and demand for precious metals, particularly silver, with the continuing political tension in the US around President Donald Trump will grow again.
 
Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD could not gain a foothold above the key resistance level of 17.35 (EMA200 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and the third day is falling.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The pair XAG / USD is in the zone of short-term support levels 17.18 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 17.14 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). If the NFP data prove to be strong, the pair XAG / USD will break through the levels of 17.18, 17.14 and go to the support level of 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to fall in the pair since August 2016 and level 20.59) with the prospect of a downward movement - 15.72 (low of 2016).
You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing a pair above the level of 17.35.
Support levels: 17.18, 17.14, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Resistance levels: 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 17.10. Stop-Loss 17.28. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.28. Stop-Loss 17.10. Take-Profit 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:23 pm
GBP/USD: on the eve of parliamentary elections
05/06/2017
 
Current dynamics

The PMI index (or the index of business activity) for the UK services sector in May was 53.8 (the forecast was 55.0, which is lower than the April index of the index 55.8). This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the service sector of Great Britain. The PMI of the UK service sector does not have such a strong impact on GDP as PMI in the manufacturing sector or the level of retail sales and consumer activity in the UK. At the same time, the decline in the PMI index for the service sector negatively affects the British currency. After the publication (08:00 GMT) of this index, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market.
Nevertheless, the GBP / USD pair closed its sharp decline (with a gap of 30 points after the next terrorist act in Great Britain last weekend) during today's European session at the opening of today's trading day.
Against the backdrop of the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD pair remains positive ahead of the June 8 elections to the UK Parliament.
As you know, in mid-April, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in Parliament.
It is likely that in these 3 days before the election to the UK Parliament the frequency of various sociological polls of the country's population will increase, which will cause an increase in the volatility in the pound trades.
The elections, which will be held in the UK on June 8, attract the attention of investors. In the case of a significant advantage of conservatives in parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May will probably be able to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If this happens, then the pound may significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
This Thursday also will be a meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and next week will be a meeting of the Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. Probably, all the same, that the risks associated with the implementation of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump, as well as his statements about the desirability of a cheaper dollar, outweigh the sellers of the dollar.
Thus, if conservatives manage to get a convincing majority in the June 8 elections, then the GBP / USD pair can significantly strengthen. Otherwise, the pound and GBP / USD pair are expected to weaken in the foreign exchange market.
In any case, this week, especially on the eve of June 8, the pound is expected to have increased volatility with sharp movements in both directions.
 
Support and resistance levels
The GBP / USD pair is currently trading near the balance line and the level of 1.2885, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the 1-hour chart. The GBP / USD pair keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support levels of 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2800 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2925, the pair GBP / USD growth will resume, and the GBP / USD pair will go to the resistance levels 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2800 and further reduction in support, the level will be 1.2700 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Further GBP / USD dynamics will in many respects be determined by the dynamics of the dollar and the comments of the Fed, which will be sounded on June 14, after the decision on the interest rate in the US is made.
Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:51 am
XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens
06/06/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000).
Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals.
Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets.
Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing.
And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold.
So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month.
At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections.
It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth.
 
Support and resistance levels
Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart.
The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00
Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:00 pm
AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar
07/06/2017
 
Current dynamics

While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session.
According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009.
The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world.
Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government.
As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.
At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia.
On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.
Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline.
 
Support and resistance levels
The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend.
The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year.
The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:46 pm
DJIA: US stock indexes are rising
08/06/2017
 
Current dynamics

Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes.
While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year.
Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%.
"Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate.
Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market.
Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that
the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude.
With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market.
 
Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue.
 In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0).
If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0).
The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0
Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0
Sell ​​Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:46 pm
XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening
09/06/2017
Current dynamics

The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged.
The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market.
The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21.
Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%.
August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce.
Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals.
Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.
 
Support and resistance levels
For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86.
At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
 Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ).
The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%).
In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible.
Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:31 am
Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again
19/06/2017
 
Current dynamics

The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.
Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.
The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.
Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.
There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.
Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.
 
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.
At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.
Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50
Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50
Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:11 pm
XAG/USD: demand for precious metals has increased
09/08/2017
 
Current dynamics

The escalation of geopolitical tensions, provoked by North Korea's threats against the United States, caused a sharp increase in demand for safe haven assets - yen, franc and precious metals. In recent days, North Korea has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the US in the event of a military provocation. Yesterday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. If the plan is implemented, "the United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons", the DPRK said.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and fury that the world has not seen so far".
At the end of yesterday's trading session and with the opening of today's trading day, prices for precious metals soared. The troy ounce of gold has risen today by 7 dollars to 1267.00 dollars, silver - by 0.2 dollars to 16.60 dollars.
The investors' withdrawal from risks in connection with the increased geopolitical tension provoked also a decline in world stock indices and a rise in prices for government bonds.
As long as the situation around North Korea does not calm down, the demand for safe haven assets will continue. The dollar will also remain under pressure, despite strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, which increases the likelihood of further interest rate increases in the US this year.
Precious metals do not bring investment income. However, in the context of increasing economic or political uncertainty, the demand for precious metals as a safe haven is growing. Under conditions of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of precious metals is falling, as the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
Today, investors will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on labor costs and labor productivity in the US (excluding the agricultural sector) for the 2nd quarter. Positive data will support the dollar. Expected to grow by 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
Investors also expect the release of inflation data in the US (on Friday 12:30 GMT) to assess the pace of inflation acceleration after its recent slowdown. The growth of inflation indices can strengthen expectations regarding the increase in interest rates of the Fed, and this is a negative factor for the precious metals market. The probability of another increase in interest rates in the US this year is estimated today at about 46%, according to the CME Group.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of April, the pair XAG / USD is declining in the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of the channel passes near the 14.30 mark (July lows), and the upper one - near the level of 16.80. A little higher, near the 17.00 mark, the resistance level passes (EMA200 on the daily chart). While XAG / USD is below these levels, the downward trend prevails, despite the current upward correction associated with the escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 16.45 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), the descending dynamics will return, and after the breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downlink on the daily chart with targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (the minimum of the global wave of decline in the pair XAG / USD since September 2012).
Support levels: 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.00
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 16.43. Stop-Loss 16.68. Take-Profit 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.68. Stop-Loss 16.43. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:33 pm
NZD / USD: monetary policy has not changed
10/08/2017
Current dynamics

As expected, the RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "can be adjusted accordingly." For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation of the value of traded goods, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed."
In response to the publication of the decision on the rate of the pair, the New Zealand dollar / dollar briefly jumped to 0.7370 from 0.7340, but then declined during the Asian session, and at the beginning of the European session it was already trading near the 0.7270 mark.
Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, continue to decline in the foreign exchange market amid the continuing geopolitical tensions in the Asian region. The second day in a row, North Korea is threatening the United States. On Tuesday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. "The United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons," the DPRK declared. US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and the rage that the world has not seen so far." This time, North Korea threatened to "shell out from all sides" the territory of Guam in the coming weeks.
As a result of its 10-day decline, the pair NZD / USD completely leveled its July growth. According to economists, "the current rate is more appropriate to short-term fundamental factors" and "approached its average value over the past year."
As the geopolitical situation in the Asian region stabilizes, the New Zealand dollar will be able to maintain its position in the foreign exchange market due to rising commodity prices, also receiving support from long-term investors who prefer safe long-term investments. Preservation of the current interest rate at 1.75% in the long term will also contribute to this.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure. Today, the NZD / USD pair has reached an important support level of 0.7285 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and is developing a downward movement to the level of support
0.7240 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7150, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario is to return to the zone above the level of 0.7350 and resume growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7150
Resistance levels: 0.7285, 0.7350, 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:34 am
Brent: World oil supply grows
11/08/2017
Overview and dynamics

As reported today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply in July increased by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months. The supply of oil in the world increased in July to 98.16 million barrels per day, which is by 500,000 barrels per day more than in the same period last year. OPEC oil production in July increased by 230,000 barrels per day and reached 32.84 million barrels per day, the high of 2017. The increase in OPEC production of the cartel is primarily due to the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from participation in the transaction.
The investors' skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC measures is maintained due to poor compliance with the agreements on the reduction of oil production. All this imposes a negative imprint on the dynamics of oil prices.
Prices fell on Thursday, despite the earlier data from the US Energy Ministry on oil reserves in the US (Wednesday 14:30 GMT). According to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, US oil inventories fell 6.451 million barrels last week, which was the sixth consecutive week.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices.
The US successfully used the situation with a rise in prices against OPEC actions last year and increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset.
At the moment, there are 765 active drilling rigs in the USA. If the number of installations increases again, this will negatively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil was unable to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) on Thursday and the second day is going down.
While the price is below the short-term resistance level of 51.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the downside dynamics will increase, and the downside correction target will be the support level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as Fibonacci 61, 8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the price breaks through the key support level of 50.70, then the decline will accelerate, risking again moving into a bearish trend. The targets then will be support levels 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The scenario for growth implies breakdown of the resistance level of 52.90 and an increase to the resistance level of 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs). The signal to growth will be the fixing of the price above the level of 51.85.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 51.85, 52.90, 54.00, 54.75
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 51.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20, 44.50
Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 52.90, 54.00, 54.75
 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:13 pm
XAU/USD: the dollar regains positions
14/08/2017
Current dynamics

Friday's weak inflation data in the US, as well as an escalation in tensions between the US and North Korea, caused the dollar to fall on Friday and the demand for safe haven assets was growing.
As reported by the US Labor Department, in July, consumer prices rose by 0.1% (the forecast was + 0.2%). The index pointed to a worsening of the outlook for price growth in the US, which weakened expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his previously voiced threats to reply North Korea with "fire and fury" apparently sounded "not tough enough." And on Saturday Donald Trump said that the United States is ready to strike North Korea, if it does not stop threatening the United States.
As a result, on Friday, demand for gold continued to remain at high levels.
On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is acceptable. Another Fed spokesman, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that the Fed should wait with higher rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. "We still can not reach the target level of inflation, and the growth of wages remains slow," Kashkari said.
Now investors expect a rate hike in December with a probability of 38% (on Friday the probability was estimated at 47%), according to the CME Group.
Gold, as you know, does not bring interest income. But it is growing in price in periods of low interest rates and political or economic instability in the world.
So far, the demand for it is supported, mainly against the backdrop of domestic political instability in the United States and the tension in relations with the DPRK. As the geopolitical tensions decrease, investors' attention will again shift to economic indicators.
Still, the risk of an increase in the US interest rate in December, despite the low level of inflation, exists. Strong labor market in the US indicates a stable state of the economy in the country.
Tomorrow, investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) are published retail sales indices for July, which are a leading indicator, and indices of export-import prices. Forecast: retail sales increased by 0.3% (against -0.2% in June), which should support the dollar quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market, and gold is getting cheaper.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts of the pair XAU / USD turned to short positions.
Probably further decline to support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1273.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the case of breakdown of these levels and the development of a downward correction, it is likely that the support level of 1260.00 (the bottom line of the uplink and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will decrease to the support level.
The breakdown of support levels 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1295.00 (the highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels of 1185.00 and 1295.00) and further growth.
So far, against the background of the dollar's recovery, the downward short-term dynamics is dominating.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1295.00
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1285.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00
Buy Stop 1285.00. Stop-Loss 1279.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1295.00
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:51 pm
GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation
17/08/2017
Current dynamics

 
As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.
After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.
Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).
The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).
According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.
Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.
In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
 
Trading scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

on Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:43 pm
EUR/USD: The ECB is concerned about the strengthening of the euro
18/08/2017
Current dynamics

Despite the decline in the dollar, the pair EUR / USD remains under pressure (so far in the short term). Published on Thursday, the minutes of the July meeting of the ECB pointed out that the central bank is concerned about the strengthening of the single European currency this year.
"There were fears about the risk of excessive growth of the euro in the future", - so it was said in the minutes.
The strengthening of the Euro-currency negatively affects the economy of the Eurozone, as it makes European goods less competitive abroad. Weak rates of inflation in the Eurozone also contribute to the ECB's prolonging the stimulus program for the Eurozone economy for at least six months.
As you know, the program QE in the Eurozone ends in December. Despite the fact that the Eurozone economy shows signs of stable growth, which is also due to the ECB, which pursues an extra soft monetary policy, inflation is still far below the target level of the ECB just below 2.0%.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the minutes published on Wednesday from the July Fed meeting. Investors continue to assess the prospects for an increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate in December with a probability of below 40%.
The leadership of the US central bank still can not unanimously decide to raise rates in conditions of slow inflation. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is currently in the grip of the need to maintain a low interest rate in the Eurozone and the Fed's hesitancy in the matter of monetary policy, which makes both currencies vulnerable from this point of view.
The US dollar, meanwhile, declined during the Asian session and at the beginning of the European session.
If we consider that today is the last trading day of the week, then in the second half of the US session, we should expect some strengthening of the US currency against the background of closing short positions on the dollar and fixing profits.
The news background is calm today. Volatility may intensify at the beginning of the US trading session, when at 12:30 (GMT) the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada (for July) is published.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD is in a downward correction short-term trend since the beginning of August, when strong data was published from the US labor market.
Repeated attempts to test the support level 1.1690 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) have not yet led to its breakdown.
If the EUR / USD decline continues, the breakdown of the support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on 4-hour and weekly charts) will strengthen the risks of a return to the downtrend.
However, only in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1150 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will EUR/USD return to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics do not give a clear signal.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline from 1.3900), the EUR / USD is likely to strengthen further. The growth targets will be the levels of 1.1835, 1.1890 (the highs of the year), 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level).
Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1630
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.1910, 1.1950, 1.2050, 1.2180
 
Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1690, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1550
Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1835, 1.1890, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2100, 1.2180
 

 
Broj poruka : 57
Points : 220
Date of Entry : 2017-03-13
Godina : 55
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Today at 12:51 pm
DJIA: the decline continues
21/08/2017
Current dynamics

After Thursday, Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems reported on the results, their shares fell significantly, pulling the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.2% (274 points) to 21751 points. This was the most significant decline since May 2017. The shares of all 30 companies, traded in DJIA, and all 11 main sectors in the S & P500 index fell.
A portion of the disappointing financial statements of companies, which include large retailers and giants of the technology sector, as well as the terrorist attack in Spain, provoked the strongest intraday drop in the major US stock indices, which was the second this month.
On Monday, there is a continued decline in major US stock indexes, including DJIA. Investors' attention this week will be focused on comments by representatives of world central banks, including Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi.
In general, the negative mood of investors, the tendency to exit from risky assets and the withdrawal of funds into safe assets prevail. Thus, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 2.202% from 2.196%, gold quotes also remain propped up after last Friday the price of gold exceeded the annual maximum and the mark of 1300.00 dollars per ounce for a short time.
If today the decline in indices continues, it will be the third consecutive week of falling indices. The news background today for the US stock market, in general, is neutral.
Low trading volumes and investor caution on the eve of the Jackson Hole conference increase the likelihood of a short-term spike in volatility and a return of the price to the current range.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
 
Support and resistance levels
Having broken through the important short-term support levels 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 21755.0 (EMA200), DJIA found today support at the level of 21650.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The predominant negative short-term dynamics. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
Probably the continuation of the correction decrease to the level of support 21500.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of growth and consolidation above the level of 21825.0 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), the DJIA will move towards the recent absolute maximum near the level of 22177.0.
If the decline continues, then after the breakdown of the support level of 21500.0, the target may be the support level of 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the level Fibonacci 0% is near the mark of 22000.0). Through the level 20630.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is key to the bullish trend of DJIA.
Support levels: 21710.0, 21650.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21770.0, 21840.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
 
Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21785.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 21825.0, 21950.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0
Sell ​​Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 21785.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20630.0

 


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