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Forex analysis and news update

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1Forex analysis and news update Empty Re: Forex analysis and news update Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:11 am



Mexican Peso Jump 2% on Deal to Avoid U.S. Tariffs

The Mexican peso jumped 2% against the U.S. dollar after the U.S. and Mexico agreed on a migration deal to avoid tariffs on Mexican goods.

The USD/MXN pair was down 2.0% to 19.2234 by 11:42 PM ET (03:42 GMT) following the reports. U.S. President Donald Trump had previously said he would impose 5% import tariffs on all Mexican goods if Mexico fails to tighten its borders.

The safe-haven yen fell 0.3% against the dollar to 108.50. The currency usually benefits during geopolitical or financial stress.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies rose 0.3% to 96.730. The index was under pressure earlier following the release of a weak jobs report.

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May, much fewer than expected, while wage inflation eased, the Labor Department reported.

The data raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates. Analysts were already expecting a cut before the data came out, as intensifying trade tension between the U.S. and China raised concerns of a slowing global economic growth.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank would act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that the U.S. will go forward with our plan to impose more tariffs if discussions with China do not go well.

The USD/CNY pair was up 0.4% to 6.9334 even after data showed Chinas overall trade surplus in May was significantly more than expected.

In a June 8 note cited by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) said it expects the Chinese currency to weaken past 7 per dollar in the next three months due to higher U.S. tariffs.

However, effective capital controls will limit the yuan depreciation, the investment bank said.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair both fell 0.4%.

2Forex analysis and news update Empty Re: Forex analysis and news update Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:24 pm



USD/CAD stays dispel muggy mid-1.33s as attention turns to PMI data

Broad-based USD complaint causes the pair to lose its traction.
WTI extends recovery to let a boost to the loonie.
Ivey PMI from Canada and ISM non-manufacturing PMI from the U.S. neighboring-door.

The USD/CAD pair, which drifting more than 100 pips in the second half of the previous week, started the week a negative note and elongated its slide as the greenback struggled to locate demand and clumsy oil recovery helped the commodity-throbbing loonie pile up strength. However, ahead of the necessary PMI data from both Canada and the United States, the pair has once into a consolidation phase and was last seen trading at 1.3352, losing 0.15% occurring for a daily basis.

Following the slip to its lowest level in more than a year at $42.35 in the last week of the year, the West Texas Intermediate recorded its longest daily winning streak by now June by closing all single hours of the day of 2019's first week in the sure territory. As of writing, the WTI was going on 1.2% up on the day at $48.80.

On the additional hand, the US Dollar Index broke below the 96 handles and is now along with to 0.5% up on the day at 95.72 even if investors are waiting for the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which is customary to retreat to 59 in December from 60.7 in November. Also in the session, the Richard Ivey School of Business is scheduled to general pardon its PMI story as once ease.

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3Forex analysis and news update Empty Re: Forex analysis and news update Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:40 am



Yen jumps as investors stay cautious in the company of volatile amassing moves

The Japanese yen jumped going on for Friday as investors sought auspices in opposition to volatile extraction moves, though the greenback dipped as stocks traded in the estrange along after a dramatic week capped by large price swings.

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) tested its 20-month low in the future in the week and was at the brink of bear push territory to the fore the three main indexes roared by now occurring as soon as their biggest daily surge in following suggestion to a decade going concerning the order of for Wednesday and a late rally concerning Thursday.

The yen gained despite well along stocks, soft domestic data and a mount uphill less in benchmark Japanese grip yields, which fell improvement into negative territory for the first period in on top of a year.

That suggests that theres still request for some insurance adjoining elongated volatility following again the holiday period thats keeping the yen greater than before supported, said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

The Japanese currency was last going on 0.66 percent contiguously the greenback at 110.26 yen. Another safe-dock currency, the Swiss franc , as well as jumped 0.82 percent to 0.9794.

"Markets are a bit more cautious vis--vis risk appetite, in the forward the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc engagement," said Lee Hardman, an FX strategist at MUFG in London.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback adjoining a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.22 percent to 96.265 (DXY).

The U.S. currency has been swearing in recent weeks by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening cycle sooner than era-lucky, or risk harming the U.S. economy taking into consideration subsidiary pure luck absorb rate increases.

A partial shutdown of the U.S. federal supervision, trade tensions in the midst of the United States and China and complications relating to Britains exit from the European Union are in addition to keeping investors cautious.

Theres nevertheless a lot of potential risk and uncertainty out there, said Osborne.

Both chambers of the U.S. Congress convened for and no-one else a few minutes late almost Thursday, but took no steps to outlook the partial federal viewpoint shutdown in the future adjourning until adjacent-door week.



China says its economy will not collapse knocked out US threats

    Urges US to decrease feint things that uncharacteristic bilateral family

    Says that China does not interfere once new countries' internal affairs/elections
    Hopes US doesn't underestimate China's point of view and capabilities
    Hopes trade frictions can be unlimited but has prepared for all possibilities

Strong words out of China there. A handy reminder to markets that once the spotlight instinctive taken occurring by Italy today, there's still the looming US-China trade war in the background.

5Forex analysis and news update Empty Re: Forex analysis and news update Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:35 pm



Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 26 - 30, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
This pair has consolidated so far this month. Price has been ranging between the support line at 1.2250 and the resistance line at 1.2450. This week may see an end to the neutrality of the market, as price would either move above the resistance line at 1.2450 (staying above it); or it would move below the support line at 0.2250 (staying below it). However, a strong movement to the south is much more likely this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs.  
In the short-term, this pair is bullish. Since the support level at 0.9200 was tested in February 16, 2018, price has rallied by over 350 pips, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550. The market has been corrected lower since then, closing below the resistance level at 0.9500. A rally from here would save the bullish bias; while a plunge from here would render it invalid. Nonetheless, the market is more likely to go upwards as a result of a bearish outlook on EURUSD.
The bias on GBPUSD has become bullish again, for price went upwards by 250 pups last week. Even the movement this month has been largely bullish (price has gained a minimum of 400 pips). The distribution territory at 1.4200 was tested, but price closed below the distribution territory at 1.4100 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern the market, which points to a possibility of further bullish journey, as price targets the distribution territories of 1.4150, 1.4200 and 1.4250. This, nevertheless, cannot rule out a possibility of a strong pullback in the market. GBP pairs will experience high volatility this week.    
The pair traded southwards last week, to corroborate the presence of bears. Since January 8, 2018, price has lost 830 pips. It lost 170 pips last week, after testing the supply level at 106.50. Since there is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, price can still reach the demand levels at 104.50, 104.00 and 103.50 before the end of this week. A rally may occur along the way, but it should not be something that would override the extant bearish outlook on the market.
Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained.  Price has been going southward since February 5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50 was tested. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at 129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones at 129.00, 128.50 and 128.00 to be tested this week.
The cross is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. This is a choppy market: An abortive bullish attempt was made last week, but that was rejected as the supply zone at 150.00 was tested. Price came down after that, thus cancelling the short-term effect of the bullish attempt. This week, there may not be any rallies that will cancel the existing bearishness in the market. Price could go further southwards, but it is not expected to go below the demand zone at 145.00, which is the ultimate target for the week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Volatility is good for trading… Volatility can and should be used to a trader’s advantage. It all comes back to understanding and believing in your trading system.” - Jasper Lawler

6Forex analysis and news update Empty Re: Forex analysis and news update Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:45 pm



What’s next? – GOLD 23.03.18
Oil prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Friday, with market players awaiting the weekly US oil rig count later in the session.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.93 percent to $64.90 per barrel as of 06:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures rose 0.74 percent to $69.42 a barrel.

Baker Hughes is expected to release its weekly oil rig count for the US as of 18:00 GMT.
Crude benchmarks settled lower on Thursday as most investors opted to take profits following strong gains this week, although sentiment remained on the green side, opening the doors to a potential short-term upward correction ]forex news

[size=13]Morgan Stanley said US crude inventories are expected to fall later in 2018 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to grow.

“On May 12, the US government will need to decide on the renewal of the waiver of Iranian sanctions,” the bank said.” “Depending on the outcome, this could affect Iranian exports, including possibly taking a few hundred thousand barrels per day off the market.”
Also, the investment bank said crude prices could benefit from Venezuela’s output shortage.
“Any restrictions imposed by the US government on diluent exports from the US or crude imports from Venezuela into the US could lead to a further decline in overall production.”
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration said that crude stockpiles for the week ended March 16 dropped by 2.6 million barrels vs a forecasted gain of 2.6 million barrels.
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7Forex analysis and news update Empty Forex analysis and news update Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:33 pm



Dollar dips on dot-plot disappointment, BoE in focus

The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates to their highest level since the financial crisis, but Dollar bulls are clearly unamused.
Although on Wednesday, as widely expected, US interest rates were raised by 0.25% to a new band of 1.5%-1.75%, investors were more concerned with the dot-plot and Powell’s press conference. While the policy statement was generally positive and US economic growth was revised higher for 2018 and 2019, a crucial ingredient for hawks was missing. There is a suspicion that the Fed heavily disappointed markets by leaving the dot-plot unchanged for 2018 at a grand total of three hikes. Although there was a small upgrade to the dot-plot forecast for 2019 and 2020, this did little to support King Dollar. Jerome Powell’s noticeable caution during his conference and statement on how there was no clear indication in data of an accelerating inflation, encouraged investors to attack the Dollar further.
Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index was vulnerable to heavy losses after the Federal Reserve turned out to be less hawkish than anticipated. The breakdown below 90.00 could invite a decline towards 89.50 and 89.00, respectively.
Sterling higher ahead of BoE
The main event risk for Sterling today will be the Bank of England monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 0.5%.
Investors will direct their attention towards the language of the statement for any fresh insights about potential timings of a change in UK interest rates this year. A sense of optimism over the Brexit transition deal, coupled with the fact that wage growth accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years, has boosted speculation of a rate hike in May. Sterling could receive a further boost if BoE policymakers mirror these expectations by adopting a hawkish stance and signalling a rate hike in May.
Focusing on the technical perspective, the GBPUSD extended gains on Thursday with prices hitting a fresh one-month high at 1.4170 as of writing. The combination of Dollar weakness following Wednesday’s dot-plot disappointment and Sterling strength has brought GBPUSD bulls back into the game. A breach above 1.4180 could encourage an appreciation towards 1.4260 and 1.4300.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
It’s remarkable how Gold prices soared on Wednesday despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The reason behind Gold’s incredible rebound could be linked to the fact the Federal Reserve was less hawkish than anticipated, which simply weakened the Dollar. With the Dollar tumbling after the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors, Gold found itself back in fashion. The yellow metal could build on the current upside momentum, if political uncertainty in Washington and lingering trade war fears support the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, Gold has broken above the $1330 resistance level. Previous resistance at $1330 could transform into a dynamic support that encourages an incline higher towards $1340. Alternatively, a failure for bulls to keep above $1330 could invite a decline back towards $1314.

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