Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Dollar is Declining: the Outcome of the Fed Meeting Disappointed Investors
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The outcome of the two-day meeting of the American regulator was that officials left the base interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.5%. Also, from the published statement, it follows that the Fed is ready to adjust the direction of current monetary policy in the event of risks that could hinder the achievement of the regulator's key objectives. Judging by the movement of major currency pairs after the rate decision announcement, market participants are hoping for a prompt change in the Fed's monetary policy. For example, the GBP/USD pair held above significant resistance at 1.2500, and the movement of USD/JPY hints at the possibility of hidden intervention by the Bank of Japan.

GBP/USD
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Technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates the possibility of an upward correction towards 1.2700-1.2620, as a "bullish engulfing" pattern has formed on the weekly timeframe. Breaking below recent lows at 1.2300 would invalidate this pattern, potentially leading to a resumption of downward movement towards the range of 1.2100-1.2070. Factors that could influence the pricing of the pair include:

• Data on the UK's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April, scheduled for release tomorrow at 11:30 (GMT +3:00)
  
• US Employment Report, scheduled for release tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3:00)
  

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EUR/USD Dives While USD/CHF Extends Rally
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0695 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0750 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0695 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.9185 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9130 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0750 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0700 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0695. Besides, the pair declined below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0675. The pair traded as low as 1.0654 and is currently correcting losses.

The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0735 swing high to the 1.0654 low at 1.0675.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0695 zone or the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0735 swing high to the 1.0654 low.

An upside break above the 1.0695 level might send the pair toward the 1.0735 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0750 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0650. The next major support is near the 1.0630 level. A downside break below the 1.0630 support could send the pair toward the 1.0580 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar Is Losing Some of Its Gains While Awaiting a Verdict from the Fed
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The American currency continues to trade in different directions relative to leading currencies. Thus, the yen paired with theUS  dollar fell in price to a 34-year low, and in pairs with European and commodity currencies we are seeing a corrective pullback in USD. Whether the main trends will continue, or whether it is worth preparing for a deeper corrective rollback, will be determined by the coming trading sessions:

• Today at 12.00 (GMT +3:00) inflation data in the eurozone for April will be published
  
• Today at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) the US consumer confidence index from CB will be released
  
• Tomorrow at 21.00 (GMT +3:00) a meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled, at which the base interest rate on the dollar and the regulator’s further plans for monetary policy will be announced
  

EUR/USD
The single European currency has been holding above the key range of 1.0700-1.0600 for the third week. Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates the possibility of working out a piercing line combination on the weekly timeframe, which could lead to a test of 1.0900-1.0840. A price move below 1.0600 may contribute to updating last year’s low at 1.0450.

In addition to the already mentioned news, today at 13.00 (GMT +3:00) it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Vice President of the German Federal Bank Claudia Maria Buch.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

5 Stocks To Consider For May 2024
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Time flies, especially when things are running smoothly, and this year so far has been a period free of dramatic events across the capital markets.

Suddenly, we are almost halfway through 2024, and the forthcoming month takes us up to that point. During the first part of 2024, scepticism and trepidation gave way to hope and optimism as analysts cast their theories that central banks across the Western world may look toward reducing interest rates a few times. This turned out to have been an incorrect prediction, and rates remain unchanged, meaning companies still need that extra cash flow to grow or show greater revenues, which is currently being used to service monthly commitments at high interest rates.

It has not impeded progress, however. Some of the world's most prestigious indices have been performing outstandingly, giving rise to the notion that large corporations are, in many cases, in good fiscal order. Talk of recession has faded into the background as the FTSE 100 in London (UK 100 on FXOpen) ended April with a massive rally, and across the Atlantic, the S&P500 (US SPX 500 Mini on FXOpen) and NASDAQ (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) ended the month in a strong position.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

CRON Stock Price Forms a Bullish Pattern ahead of the Report
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The Cannabis Stocks market has experienced a significant decline since its peak in the spring of 2019. The share of the Canadian company Cronos (CRON) then formed a high above USD 24, and trading yesterday closed at USD 2.55.

However, even after the CRON share price fell 10 times, there are still reasons for optimism:

→ Cronos recently announced its first entry into the edible chocolate category with the introduction of Chocolate Fusions. Cronos' newest edible innovation was developed by an expert team of culinary experts, nutritional scientists and leaders in cannabis product development.

→ InvestorPlace named CRON to its list of top Cannabis Stocks to Consider Buying in Spring 2024. The argument is a reminder that Altria invested USD 1.8 billion in Cronos.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

London Calling! FTSE 100 Stocks Flying High Once Again
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Back in 2021, which when looking at a physical calendar does not seem such a long time ago yet feels an epoch ago when considering the changes in global economies and the capital markets since then, the FTSE 100 index was making headlines full of superlatives and enthusiasm as it pushed its way through the 7,000 point mark for the first time ever.

As that happened, investors and analysts alike were experiencing something of a sensory overload with so many exciting dynamics having taken place around the same time, including the notorious meme stock frenzy led by Reddit board groups, which dramatically affected the prices of certain entertainment stocks in the US and a deluge of relatively unheard of firms suddenly listing their stock on the NASDAQ exchange for multi-billion dollar valuations via SPAC entities.

Alongside these headline grabbers was London's FTSE 100 rallying like never before, which was an interesting backdrop because London listed firms are often traditional, long-established bricks-and-mortar entities with decades of institutional stability behind them as opposed to the disruptors of the NASDAQ, and not susceptible to volatility caused by the self-styled market makers of the Reddit boards.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY: Rate Falls Rapidly after Exceeding Psychological Mark of 160 Yen Per Dollar
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Despite the fact that today is a holiday in Japan, the foreign exchange market is experiencing extreme volatility — wide candles are forming on the USD/JPY chart, and the rate briefly exceeded the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar, reaching a new high in 34 years.

The weakening of the yen in the first hours of trading occurred against the background of the fact that:
→ On Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates at the same level = 0.1%.
→ At the same time, market participants did not hear clear signals from the Bank of Japan that the weakening yen would be supported.
→ On Wednesday, May 1, the Fed will announce its decision on the interest rate. It is also expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%, highlighting the difference in monetary policy between Japan and the United States.

However, shortly after the yen surpassed the psychological level of 160.00, USD/JPY fell sharply to 155.50 and below — traders, according to Reuters, saw signs of intervention from Japanese financial authorities after a 13% increase since the beginning of the year.

Let us recall that Tokyo previously intervened in the foreign exchange market in September and October 2022, when the US dollar exchange rate was about 146.00 and 152.00 yen, respectively.

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Google Share Price Rose Post-market to a New All-time Record
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Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, a report on activities for the 1st quarter of Alphabet Inc. (Google's parent company) was published. The report was strong, exceeding investors' expectations.

→ Quarterly EPS = USD 1.89 (expected = USD 1.51), which represents a 15% increase year-over-year;
→ gross revenue = USD 80.539 billion (expected = USD 78.73 billion).

It was the fifth straight quarter in which Alphabet beat analysts' expectations on both revenue and profit. But the main surprise was the company’s decision to start paying dividends and increase the amount allocated for share buybacks to USD 70 billion.

According to Benzinga, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai made a number of important announcements about the future:
→ The company's combined YouTube and Cloud business revenues will be USD 100 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 25% in each of the next three quarters.
→ Pichai also expressed confidence in Alphabet's ability to manage investments in AI, announcing capital expenditures of USD 12 billion.

As a result, the share price of Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) surpassed USD 180 in post-market trading, setting a new all-time record. In premarket trading today, GOOGL is trading around USD 176.

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S&P 500 Rebounds after Negative GDP News
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Data released yesterday showed US GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of the year. According to ForexFactory: forecast = 2.2%, past value = 2.4%.

Reaction to the news sent the S&P 500 mini stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) sharply lower as market participants may fear a period of stagflation — a period when economic growth slows and inflation remains stubbornly high.

Speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors: “Stagflation has the negative effect of lack of growth and inflation. It hurts profits, consumers and jobs. And yes, I think there is a chance it could happen again,” he said.

However, this morning the 4-hour chart of the US SPX 500 mini shows that the stock market is recovering thanks to gains in Google and Microsoft, which reported strongly after the close of the main trading session.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD And USD/CAD Daily Chart Outlook
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GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2300. USD/CAD is consolidating and might aim for a move above the 1.3760 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a recovery wave above the 1.2400 resistance.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2520 on the daily chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3660 support zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3620 on the daily chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the daily chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2900 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2600 support to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2400 and the 50-day simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2300 level. A low was formed near 1.2299 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a fresh upside above the 1.2400 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

META Share Price Collapses after Publication of Quarterly Report
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Just yesterday, META's stock price closed at USD 493.50, up approximately 40% since the start of 2024 and up nearly 300% since the start of 2023.

However, following the release of Meta's quarterly report, its shares plummeted to USD 400 in post-market trading, representing a decline of more than -15%.

It is noteworthy that the report exceeded expectations in some of the main indicators:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 4.70, forecast = USD 4.32;
→ revenue: actual = USD 36.4 billion, forecast = USD 36.1 billion.

However, investors were disappointed by plans for the coming months, as Meta said second-quarter revenue would be between USD 36.5 billion and USD 39 billion, below the average estimate of USD 38.24 billion. This could be due to increased investment in developing AI-based products , which do not yet generate income.

At pre-market today, the META share price is around USD 418.

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Yen in Search of New Lows, Commodity Currencies at a low Start
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In recent trading sessions, the dollar has been trading quite differently to leading currencies. Thus, the yen is reaching historical lows, European currencies have managed to correct, and the Australian and Canadian dollars are testing strategic supports.

USD/JPY
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The absence of currency interventions from the Bank of Japan and strong macroeconomic data from the United States are pushing the USD/JPY pair to new levels, above which the price has not risen since 1990. However, in the coming trading sessions the situation may change dramatically:

• Today at 15.30 (GMT +3:00) US GDP data for the first quarter will be published
  
• Tomorrow at 5.30 (GMT +3:00) a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be announced.
  

This week, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued what is now the strongest possible warning about the possibility of intervention. "I will not deny that these events have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate action (in the foreign exchange market), although I will not say what those actions might be," the official said.

According to technical analysis of USD/JPY, the pair is in a phase of exponential growth, which can be interrupted at any significant resistance. If a downward pullback begins, the price may drop to 154.70-1.53.60.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD Rises Sharply on Inflation News
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The Consumer Price Index for Australia was released this morning. According to ForexFactory:

→ CPI in quarterly terms: actual = 1.0%, expected = 0.8%, previous value = 0.6%;
→ CPI in annual terms: actual = 3.5%, expected = 3.4%, previous value = 3.4%.

Rising inflation figures suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia's tight monetary policy may continue beyond expectations - which is why the Australian dollar has jumped higher relative to other currencies.

Thus, from the minimum of the year against the US dollar, recorded on April 19, the Ausssie rose in price by more than 2%.

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TSLA Share Price Up About 13% Despite Disappointing Report
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Yesterday, TSLA trading closed at USD 144.68 per share, after which Tesla reported its results for the 1st quarter:

→ earnings per share: actual = USD 0.45, forecast = USD 0.49;
→ gross income: actual = USD 21.45 billion, forecast = USD 22.2 billion.

However, in the post-market, TSLA's share price rose approximately 13% thanks to Elon Musk's plans and statements:

→ We faced numerous challenges in Q1, including the conflict in the Red Sea and the arson attack at the Gigafactory in Berlin. We think the second quarter will be much better.

→ EV adoption rates around the world are under pressure, but electric vehicles will dominate the auto industry in the long term. We continue to invest in AI infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, Supercharger networks, and new products.

→ Production of new models will start at the end of 2024 — beginning of 2025 on existing production lines.

The stock's rise after the report shows that optimism about the start of production of a new model that could be the most affordable in Tesla's lineup outweighed concerns about the poor report and increased competition.

On April 5, we wrote that the price of TSLA could reach the psychological level of USD 150 per share.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Corrects Gains While Oil Price Regains Strength
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Gold price rallied above $2,400 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85.50 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied significantly above $2,400 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
  
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,310 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $82.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above the $2,350 resistance, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even broke the $2,400 level before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to the $2,420 zone before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,355 pivot zone. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and RSI dipped below 50. Finally, it tested the $2,290 zone.

The price is now correcting losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,417 swing high to the $2,291 low. It surpassed a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,310.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,330. The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,417 swing high to the $2,291 low at $2,355.

An upside break above the $2,355 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,420 level. If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,310 level. The first major support is $2,290. If there is a downside break below the $2,290 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,265 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Volatility in the Pound Is Rising, the Euro is Consolidating
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GBP/USD
At the end of last week, the British currency fell sharply, testing a significant support level at 1.2300. The resumption of the downward trend for the pair became possible after some statements by British officials:

On Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he expects a strong decline in inflation from next month.
Dave Ramsden, Deputy Chairman of Markets and Banking, was also quite optimistic, noting that the recently published UK core CPI data was nothing more than a “glitch” in the deflationary process, and risks to sustainability and domestic inflationary pressures were beginning to recede.
After such statements by British officials, expectations for a rate cut on the pound shifted to August, and since the Fed does not plan to cut the rate before September, the GBP/USD pair continues to suffer losses.

GBP/USD technical analysis indicates further development of the downward trend, as the price has consolidated below the alligator lines on higher time frames, the AO oscillator is red and below zero. At the same time, before a new downward impulse, a corrective growth in the direction of 1.2420-1.2400 is possible.

If pound sellers manage to refresh the recent low at 1.2300, the pair could test 1.2220-1.2140.

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The Price of Gold XAU/USD Shows Strongest Fall in Almost 2 Years
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On Monday, the price of gold fell from USD 2,386 to USD 2,333 per ounce — this is the strongest drop in one day in almost 2 years, according to Bloomberg. On Tuesday morning in the Asian session, the price continued to decline, reaching USD 2,300 per ounce.

This happened against the backdrop of:

→ easing tensions in the Middle East. According to Tehran's official statement, Israel received "the necessary response at this stage."

→ signs that the Federal Reserve will keep rates high for longer.

One of the reasons for the intensification of sales can also be considered the desire to take profits by those who held long positions — we wrote about this in the post “The price of gold XAU/USD has reached an important resistance zone” on April 16.

Nevertheless, the gold market continues to remain in an upward trend — since the beginning of the year, its price has increased by 11.5%.

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Hong Kong-listed Chinese Insurer Goes on Rally as Western Giants Retract
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The Asia Pacific region has once again become an area of great interest to investors and traders as some remarkable patterns of volatility have begun to make their presence felt.

This morning, a few examples of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies which have made headway are apparent as the Asia Pacific region's trading session spearheaded the beginning of the week ahead for financial markets.

One such company is China Pacific Insurance, whose Hong Kong-listed stock is available for trading as a CFD on FXOpen's TickTrader platform.

The company has made some remarkable headway over the past few weeks, culminating in a further acceleration in value toward the high point that it has reached today, placing it among the top risers across all markets globally.

At the end of last month, China Pacific Insurance stock was at a low point, trading at 13.28 HKD on March 27, however, this situation turned itself around quickly, and throughout April so far, the stock has been increasing in value, reaching 15.91 HKD according to FXOpen pricing by 8.00 am UK time this morning by which point the majority of the trading day in Hong Kong was complete.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024
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On April 19, 2024, a halving occurred in the Bitcoin network, resulting in the reward for the mined block amounting to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as Forbes reports, Goldman Sachs analysts warn against extrapolating the results of Bitcoin price movements after past halvings to the current moment. After all, back then, the halvings occurred during a period of loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while this time the Fed is struggling with harsher-than-expected inflation.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou are also cautious. “We do not expect Bitcoin price increases post halving as it has been already priced in,” they wrote.

However, this morning Bitcoin is trading above USD 66,000, the highest price in a week. Adding to the market's positivity are rumors that the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong is going to approve spot applications for Bitcoin ETFs.

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Commodity Currencies at Strategic Levels. What Can Affect a Breakdown Downwards?
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The decline in investor expectations regarding a change in the vector of the Fed's monetary policy contributes to the fall of not only European, but also commodity currencies. So, in recent weeks:

• AUD/USD has lost more than 200 points and is testing the extremes of 2023 near 0.6400
  
• USD/CAD is trading at three-year highs and has managed to strengthen by 300 points
  

What may affect the pricing of the main currency pairs on the market in the coming trading sessions:

• Speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee (today at 17.30 GMT+3.00)
  
• Publication on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (today at 20.00 GMT+3.00)
  
• Announcement on the base lending rate from the People's Bank of China (Monday at 4.15 GMT+3.00)
  

USD/CAD
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The USD/CAD currency pair has come close to the important range of 1.3970-1.3800, above which the price has not risen since 2020.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the possibility of a downward correction in the short term, since a dark clouds combination has been formed on the daily timeframe, the development of which could lead to a breakdown of yesterday’s low at 1.3740 and a further test of 1.3650-1.3620. If the upward movement resumes, the price may break through the recent high at 1.3840 and continue to rise in the direction of 1.3970-1.3880.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber Growth
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Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session on the stock market, Netflix reported to investors for the 1st quarter of 2024.

The report turned out better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.28, forecast = USD 4.52;
→ gross income: actual = USD 9.40 billion, forecast = USD 9.27.
→ The number of subscribers increased by 9.3 million (expected +4.8 million).

However, NFLX's pre-market share price today is hovering around USD 580, about 6% below yesterday's closing price.

Negativity manifested itself in:
→ disappointing forecasts for the 2nd quarter;
→ investors also did not like the decision to stop providing quarterly reports on changes in the number of subscribers next year.

If NFLX stock opens today around the USD 580 level, then it would indicate that the market has moved down to the lower boundary of the parallel channel (shown in blue).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Escalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts
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On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.

Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.

And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:

→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;

→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;

→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.

There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”

As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:

→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;

→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;

→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.

→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.

As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.

The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.

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Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6500 and 0.6455 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.5950.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5890 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6540 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6500 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6455 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6400. A low was formed at 0.6362 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6410 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

The next major resistance is near 0.6455, above which the price could rise toward 0.6540. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6600. A close above the 0.6600 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6680.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6360 zone. The next support sits at 0.6340. If there is a downside break below 0.6340, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6300. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6265 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%
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At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors:

→ easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

→ reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast.

→ growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported.

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Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.