HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

Date: 27th August 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Big Tech pulled down; Oil unchanged amid supply concerns.

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Asia & European Sessions:

* US: Some steam came out of Friday’s rally as Treasuries and Wall Street corrected from overbought conditions. The bond market had already priced in at least a -25 bp rate cut on September 18, though yields dropped further following Chair Powell’s confirmation. With little on the docket until Thursday’s claims data, the market gave back some of its gains. There was also a little concession building ahead of the start of the $183 bln in auctions.
* The S&P500 rose to 5651 in early action, but failed to test the record high of 5667 from July 16. The NASDAQ slumped -0.85% on profit taking ahead of Nvidia earnings Wednesday. The Dow was up 0.16%.
* Several technology companies tip the market because of their big values. Nvidia lost 2.2%, Microsoft fell 0.8%, Amazon dropped 0.9%, Meta Platforms slid 1.3% and Tesla lost 3.2%.
* China: Industrial profit data for China was robust, but mainland China bourses still struggled, while the Hang Seng managed slight gains.
* Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.3% at the open, DAX and FTSE 100 are currently up 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The UK is catching up after the extended holiday weekend.
* German data confirmed that GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the second quarter and GfK consumer confidence data unexpectedly declined, which coupled with deteriorating business confidence flags recession risks.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex index is at 100.85.
* EURUSD and Cable are consolidating but remain at high levels at currently 1.116 and 1.319 respectively. Both flagged that monetary policy will have to remain restrictive for the time being. That won’t prevent additional rate cuts, but highlights that central banks will move cautiously.
* USOil closed with a 2.9% pop to $77.04 after news Libya was shutting supply added to the bullish impact of increasing tensions in the Middle East.
* Gold firmed to $2509 per ounce on geopolitical risks and rate cut prospects.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th August 2024.

Market News – FED: “The time has come for policy to adjust”.

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This year’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium provided the opportunity for Fed Chair Powell to set the policy course for the FOMC, looking to join the other core central banks already in rate cutting mode. The markets got a big boost after he confirmed the FOMC will begin lowering rates on September 18.

The question on size could be answered by upcoming jobs numbers.

* Europe & UK: The ECB is also likely to reduce rates again next month, while the BoE’s Bailey sounded a more cautious tone.  Like the ECB, the BoE seems more likely to stick to meetings with updated projections and detailed analysis, which would mean the BoE will sit out the next meeting and move again in November.
* Japan: Governor Ueda signaled the BoJ remains on its normalization course, but a hike as soon as September 20 seems unlikely.

Asia & European Sessions:

* Asian stock markets have shown mixed performance so far today, with the Hang Seng rising more than 1%, while Japanese markets corrected as the Yen rallied.
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.1%, reaching 37,944.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.0% to 17,786.31. Shanghai Composite index slightly declined by 0.1% to 2,852.34. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to 8,076.10.
* European stock markets are mostly lower, with the DAX currently posting a loss of -0.2%. UK markets are closed for a holiday.
* The Dow climbed 1.1% to 41,175.08, surpassing the 41,000 mark for the first time since July.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex saw a session low of 100.53 after plunging on Friday. It is currently trading at 100.41.
* EUR and Sterling have benefited from dovish Fed bets and the correction in the Dollar.  The EURUSD pulled back from 1.1200 and is currently at 1.1177. The GBPUSD broke key resistance at 1.31 and is  retesting 1.3200 currently.
* The Yen outperformed, and rallied against most currencies.t is currently settled at 143.43.
* USOil spiked to $75.28. Safe-haven buying due to increasing tensions in the Middle East, alongside bets on the Fed, contributed to market movements. Oil prices rose 0.7% as the region prepared for further conflict following an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
* Gold recovered to $2524.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd August 2024.

Market News – The Big Day!

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* Profit taking was seen ahead of Chair Powell’s comments today, weighing on Treasuries and Wall Street as some of the aggressive Fed rate cuts bets were trimmed further.
* US economic data showed mixed results, with growth relying more on the service sector as manufacturing slows. A better than expected S&P Global services print, a bounce in new home sales, and cautious comments from several Fed officials from Jackson Hole were the catalysts for the selloff. 
* The Yen rose after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential interest rate hikes, reaffirming the BOJ’s stance if economic data aligns with forecasts. This follows concerns after the BOJ’s July rate hike caused a global equity selloff. Japanese inflation data exceeded expectations, supporting the Yen as well.
* Focus on Powell’s Speech: Traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on potential rate cuts. Some have been warning that the event risk is that Powell will be more cautious than markets are now expecting, which could weigh on the Euro and Sterling in particular.

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Asia & European Sessions:

* Wall Street tumbled, with losses accelerating into the close. The NASDAQ finished with a -1.67% plunge, while the S&P500 was -0.89% lower, and the Dow was down -0.43%.
* Asian equities were mixed, with Chinese shares helping to erase earlier losses. Global stocks were volatile, with declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, and the US.
* Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing upgrade was approved, which is expected to attract significant investment. However, Chinese tech stocks like NetEase, Baidu, and Bilibili fell due to weak earnings.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* EURUSD has inched down to 1.1130 after drifting to 1.1097, but is still near the highest level in a year. Sterling outperformed and Cable rallied to 1.3120 after strong PMI data. The USDJPY is trading at 145.27 (S1) after a broader correction in the Yen.
* USOil steadied between 72.58-72.94.
* Gold has inched down to $2470 per ounce and still holds below the $2500 level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd August 2024.

Market News – Eyes on Euro, Stock Markets in Green, But Cautioness Prevails Ahead of Fed & BoJ.

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FOMC minutes showed that the Fed was on the verge of cutting rates at the July 31 meeting, and the report sets up a reduction in rates with the September 18 decision. Expectations were further reinforced by the BLS’s downward revisions to Nonfarm payrolls.

* Treasury yields tumbled on the payroll revision and were down further after the FOMC minutes, but closed off their lows in a bull flattening trade.
* Wall Street bounced back marginally, looking to start another win streak after the modest declines Tuesday prevented a ninth straight gain in the S&P500, which would have been the longest since 2004.
* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a largely stronger close across Asia. The Nikkei closed 0.7% higher, the Hang Seng bounced 1.2%, after yesterday’s correction. Gains in Europe are more modest, with DAX and FTSE 100 up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
* The NASDAQ rose 0.57%, with the SP500 up 0.42%, while the Dow was 0.13% higher.
* The VIX jumped 2.86% to 16.87.
* Eurozone Composite PMI unexpectedly bounced back in the preliminary reading for August. The Manufacturing PMI still declined to an 8-month low and Services index outperformed. Confidence levels have dropped to the lowest so far this year and are below the “series average.” So the improvement in the headline doesn’t necessarily signal a rebound in overall activity, and the numbers are unlikely to prevent the doves at the ECB from pushing for another rate cut in September.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* The Euro surged to a 1-year high against the US Dollar in August, driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts. The euro-dollar pair sees around $2.29 trillion in daily turnover, making it a key vehicle for betting against the US economy. Money managers have been buying euros daily for the past two weeks, anticipating a Fed interest-rate cutting cycle.
* However, the US rates staying higher than European rates could restore the Dollar’s appeal.
* USOil prices slipped -1.7% to $71.92 per barrel.
* Gold was fractionally lower at $2512.01 per ounce after rising to a new record high of $2513.99 on Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st August 2024.

Market News – Sentiment stabilize; EU stocks higher after mixed Asian session.

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* Safe Havens were boosted by rate cut expectations for the FOMC, as well as the ECB and BoC, and after a dovish cut by the Riksbank. Adding to the strength in the rally are the weaker USD, debt concerns (especially for the US), portfolio hedging, haven demand, along with buying from the PBoC and other central banks.
* Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor too, though they were tempered slightly late yesterday after news Israel had agreed to a cease-fire proposal.
* US bond yields dropped to their lowest since August 5, driven by fears of a recession after weak jobs data earlier in the month.

Asian & European Open:

* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a mixed close across Asia.
* Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong were under pressure and the Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.8% loss.
* Sentiment seemed to stabilize at the start of the European session, and US futures are marginally higher as markets wait for Jackson Hole and signals from major central banks that rates will go down next month.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex fell to its lowest level this year against euro as traders prepared for key US payroll data revisions & Fed Powell’s upcoming speech. EURUSD rallied to 1.1132.
* The Sterling and the Yen showed mixed performance against the USD, with traders eyeing Japan’s parliament session and BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming testimony. GBPUSD spiked to 1.3050 and USDJPY bottomed to 144.92.
* SMBC economist Ryota Abe expects the US Dollar to weaken to 138 Yen by next year, with the Fed’s rate-cut pace being a critical factor.
* The Aussie hovered near a 1-month high, while the Kiwi touched its highest level since July before slightly retreating.
* USOil was steady close to its $72 floor.
* Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th August 2024.

Market News – Its all about market sentiment.

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* Wall Street continued its run higher as the panicked trade from early in the month continues to recede while outlooks on the Fed remain dovish heading into Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.
* Asian stocks mostly rose on Tuesday, driven by positive momentum from Wall Street as it neared record highs.
* Chinese property developer Kaisa announced a restructuring agreement with creditors to avoid legal challenges over its 2021 default. The deal includes issuing $5 billion in new bonds and $4.8 billion in convertible bonds. (Kaisa, once the largest offshore borrower after Evergrande, faces a winding-up petition in Hong Kong, though the case has been repeatedly delayed.)
* The RBA indicated that it will likely maintain interest rates at their 12-year high for an “extended period” to ensure inflation returns to target by next year.
* In Europe, growing risks to economic growth have strengthened the argument for a policy shift at the ECB’s meeting next month. Markets are also watching the EU CPI release due later today.

Asian & European Open:

* Expectations for lower rates helped boost the NASDAQ by 1.39%. The S&P500 climbed to its 8th consecutive gain and its best run since November. It is just the 2nd close over 5600 as it sets its sights on the record 5667 from July 16. The Dow rose 0.58% to 40,896 as 41,198 is back in view.
* The Nikkei surged 2.1% to 38,156.41, recovering from a previous 1.8% drop.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex sank to 101.60, the weakest since early January.
* The Yen fluctuated against the US dollar, trading at the 147.33, rebounding from the 145-146 area.
* USOil prices decline to largest drop in 2 weeks, i.e. $72.76, as the US said Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza, potentially easing supply risks as concerns about the global demand outlook mount.
* Bitcoin climbed to $60,974 while Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th August 2024.

Market News – Asian Stocks gain but US in red, Dollar plumMets; Yen the biggest gainer so far.

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September Fed rate cut all but a done deal, look ahead to Jackson Hole

* Dovish Fed bets have also boosted hopes of additional easing in Europe, and bonds are falling as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is expected to provide new guidance on the direction of US monetary policy.
* The anticipation of lower borrowing costs is boosting investor confidence.
* The US Dollar crashed to its lowest in 5 months. Cooler heads have prevailed as the panicked fears of recession dissipated. The FOMC is widely seen on track for -25 bp rate cuts over the remaining three policy meetings this year.
* Goldman Sachs reduced the likelihood of a US recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, citing the recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the upcoming August jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results, “we would likely lower our recession probability further to 15%,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius noted in a report to clients on Saturday.

Asian & European Open:

* Asian stock markets traded largely higher overnight, however, European markets are narrowly mixed in early trade and US futures are in the red.
* The Hang Seng and tech stocks led the way overnight. The Nikkei underperformed and corrected -1.8%.
* The German 10-year rate is down -1.6 bp, the 10-year Gilt -2.3 bp and the US 10-year yield -1.3 bp.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has remained under pressure and hit a session low of 102.00, before picking up slightly.
* The Yen strengthened by 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 145.17 today. The yen’s rise is driven by overall USD weakness, anticipation of BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary appearance on August 23, and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Markets are looking for signals from Ueda on the future direction of the BOJ’s interest rate policy. Political uncertainty is also influencing expectations, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement that he will not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. Some investors are still betting on potential BOJ interest-rate hikes and may be buying Yen ahead of speeches by the US and Japanese central bank leaders later this week.
* USOil prices have also continued to struggle as demand concerns dominate. The USOIL is currently below $75 per barrel as traders tracked US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month old Middle East conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating.
* Gold  rallied to an all-time high over $2500 per ounce,on hopes the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th August 2024.

Markets corrected again; Stocks skyrocketed.

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Markets corrected again amid the back and forth on the Fed outlook and uncertainties over soft and hard landings that have besieged the outlooks since the jobs report. Global stocks have largely recovered from last week’s downturn, which had traders worried that the Fed might not cut rates quickly enough to prevent a recession.

* Asian stocks surged as investors returned to riskier assets, driven by increasing optimism that the US economy will sidestep a recession.
* September’s Fed rate cut was knocked out by the better than expected retail sales & jobless claims data and inflation. They are now anticipating less than a 30-basis point cut next month, with a total reduction of 92 basis points projected for the remainder of 2024.
* The RBA’s governor indicated that the central bank is still some distance from easing monetary policy.
* RBNZ governor Adrian Orr raised the distinct prospect of cutting rates another 50 basis points by year-end. NZDUSD rose to 0.6020.

Asian & European Open:

* Japanese stocks climbed, benefiting from a weaker Yen, which enhances exporters’ profits. The Nikke is set to end the week on a high, surging 2.9% to 37,800.42.
* Treasuries extended their losses, and the Yen is on track for its steepest weekly decline since May.
* The VIX fell further, dropping -6.49% to 15.14. It is well below the intraday spike to 65 on August 5 and is the lowest since July 23, even before the jobs report.
* Wall Street surged 2.34%, with the S&P500 advancing 1.61%, while the Dow climbed 1.39%. The rebound in US stocks from the heavy selling suggests that trend-following quant funds may soon reenter the market, potentially providing further support to equities.
* Walmart’s solid earnings report added to signs that the consumer is by no means dead, corresponding with the better news on retail sales. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. saw gains as optimism around tech stocks overshadowed concerns about its earnings. JD.com Inc. surged the most since March after exceeding net profit expectations in its earnings report released late Thursday.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed to 103.024 after fading from the spike to 103.227. It was as low as 102.530.
* The Yen dropped 1.3% hovered around the 149 mark. This currency depreciation might even entice some hedge funds back into the carry trade that unraveled two weeks ago.
* GBP strengthened as GDP data confirmed robust growth through the second quarter of the year, which weighed on Gilts and saw yields moving higher.
* The AUD strengthened as job gains beat expectations.
* USOil climbed 1.3% to $77.99 per barrel on the improved growth outlook.
* Gold rallied 0.34% to $2456.24 after slumping to $2432 on the data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th August 2024.

Earnings and Inflation Boost the Dow Jones, Eyes Turn to Walmart’s Report!

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* US inflation falls from 3.00% to 2.90% making a September rate cut certain.
* According to the CME Group, there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points.
* Japanese GDP data confirms the economy grew 0.8% in the past quarter. The UK economy sees no growth in the latest month.
* Wednesday’s best performing index was the Dow Jones after Cisco Systems beat earnings and revenue expectations.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Is Wednesday’s Best Performing Index!

The Dow Jones is rarely the best performing index due to its exposure to more stable and less volatile stocks. The upward momentum is largely due to the earnings data from Cisco Systems and Caterpillar. Investors will now turn their attention to the last major quarterly earnings report for the week, Walmart.

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80% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value on Wednesday due to the significant rise in investor sentiment. Confidence in the stock market improved after the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9% and the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2%. The lower than previously expected inflation saw the market’s confidence rise and particularly support the Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones also saw momentum rise after Cisco made public their latest quarterly earnings report. Earnings per Share was 2.49% higher than Wall Street’s predictions and the revenue rose by almost $1 billion from the 1st to 2nd quarter. As a result, the stock rose by 5.75% after market close. The best performing stocks on Wednesday were American Express and Goldman Sachs. Investors will now turn their attention to Walmart which will release their earnings report before the market opens.

For Walmart, analysts predict the earnings per share to rise from $0.60 to $0.65 and for revenue to rise from $159 billion to $167 billion. The company has beat earnings expectations over the past 12 months due to investors looking to shop on a budget due to recent high inflation. On Wednesday, Walmart stocks rose 0.78% and a further 0.52% after market close. The rise and bullish momentum indicate investors believe the company will continue to perform well on their earnings reports. Walmart holds a weight of 1.12% and Cisco Systems 0.74%.

Dow Jones – Interest Rates and Upcoming Economic News.

After the lower inflation data for consumers and producers there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points. According to many analysts the Federal Reserve will cut 0.75% by the end of 2024. However, some experts believe the Fed will cut a full 1.00%. This is also something which can be seen on the CME Group which indicates a 44% chance of a 1.00% cut by December.

Investors will now turn their attention to the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Ideally shareholders would like to see the data slightly stronger than expectations, but not strong enough to suggest no rate cuts are needed. The Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Index will also trigger volatility but to a lesser extent. The only concern for shareholders is a potential rise in tensions within the Middle East!

Currently the VIX trades with no major changes. As do Bond Yields, but a decline throughout the day would benefit the stock market.

Dow Jones – Technical Analysis!

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Technical analysis indicates buyers are holding momentum. On the 2-Hour chart, price trades above the 75-Period EMA and the 100-Period EMA. The price also continues to trade above 70 on the RSI but is not indicating an overbought price.  On the 5-Minute chart, the price continues to form bullish crossovers and trade above the VWAP. The price movement throughout as we approach the US session will depend largely on the global stock market performance and Walmart’s earnings report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th August 2024.

The Pound Rises, But Cracks Emerge in the UK Employment Sector.

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* The Pound increases in value, but UK employment data signals economic stagnation and weakening employment.
* The UK number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rises 135,000, the highest in over 4 years.
* The Dow Jones trades sideways but this may change as Home Depot is due to release their earnings report.
* Investors turn their attention to the US Producer Inflation Rate which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%.

GBPUSD – UK Employment Data Paints a Dim Picture!

The Great British Pound is increasing in value against the US Dollar and also against all other currencies. However, the economic data coming out of the UK this morning paints a very different picture. Therefore, many investors question whether the Pound will indeed maintain bullish momentum.

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The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits from 135,000 within a single month, the highest since the first COVID lockdown. The six-month average for the UK Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefits) is 22,233. Therefore, 135,000 added within a single month is a concern for investors and the Bank of England.

In addition to this, the UK Average Earnings Index fell from 5.7% to 4.5% which is lower than expectations. The fall is likely to apply less upward pressure on inflation and can eventually prompt the Bank of England to consider an earlier rate cut. However, the positive from the morning’s UK data is the unemployment rate. The UK unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.2%, a 4-month low.

It is vital for investors to continue monitoring the GBP index, which is currently trading 0.23% higher. However, if data continues to disappoint throughout the week, the traditional react would lead to a weakening of the British Pound. If individual wish to speculate a depreciating GBP, investors also have the option to trade the GBPNZD which has been the best performing currency of the past week.

Regarding the GBPUSD exchange rate, the price will also largely be dependant on this afternoon’s Producer Price Index. As the US session edges closer, investors will turn their attention to the PPI, which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%. If the Producer Price Index reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar may increase in value while the market’s risk appetite declines. As a result, the Pound can quickly give up gains from the past 24 hours.

Currently, the price of the GBPUSD is trading above most moving averages, oscillators and the VWAP indicating potential upward price movement. However, as mentioned above, the price movement will be dependant on the upcoming economic releases. If the price trades above 1.28037 and 1.28092, the exchange rate may rise in value in the short term. However, ideally the US PPI will need to read lower than expectations as the breakout takes place.

USA30 – Investors On Edge Ahead Of Inflation And Home Depot’s Earnings Report!

The Dow Jones continues to honour the price pattern of the previous 2 trading sessions as per yesterday’s analysis. However, this is now likely to change as Home Depot will release their earnings report in the upcoming hours. Additionally, this afternoon’s Producer Price Index will be a key price driver. Shareholders will be hoping for a lower-than-expected PPI.

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Home Depot has beat their earnings expectations over the past 4 quarters, but investors will also be looking for guidance for the upcoming quarters. Investors expect Earnings Per Share to rise from $3.63 to $4.55 and for revenue to rise by $6 billion. If the company beat expectations the stock potentially can rise and support the Dow Jones. Over the past 12 months the stock has risen 4.80% and has a dividend yield of 2.60%.

During this morning’s Asian session, the VIX is trading more than 2.00% lower which is positive for the Dow Jones. Investors will continue to monitor the VIX and US Bond Yields. If both decline, the price movement is likely to improve. Throughout the Asian session the Dow Jones has risen 0.32% and is attempting to move back to the resistance level. However, positive data is required to breakout of this level and form a possible bullish trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th August 2024.

How Will the Pound Perform Ahead Of A Vital Week For The UK!

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* Economists expect the US inflation rate to remain at 3.0% or to drop to 2.9%. Also, economists expect Inflation excluding Food and Energy to drop to 3.2%.
* The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline.
* According to the CME Group, investors are split over whether the Fed will cut 0.50% or 0.25%.
* The US inflation data tomorrow and on Wednesday will determine how the Fed will cut.
* The Dow Jones await key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th).

GBPJPY – Key UK Data To Determine The Pound’s Value!

The price of the GBPJPY is trading at the recent average price, but the Pound is gaining momentum ahead of vital economic data. The performance of the Great British Pound will depend largely on the upcoming 5 key economic releases. The Japanese Yen on the other hand has slightly lost momentum after the dovishness of the Bank of Japan in their latest press conference. The performance of the Yen will largely depend on the dovishness of the other central banks such as the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank.

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GBPJPY 2-Hour Chart Showing The Price Rise Above Moving Averages For The First Time Since July 11th.

Throughout the week the UK will release the following key economic releases:

* Claimant Count Change
* Average Earnings Index
* UK Inflation
* Gross Domestic Product
* Retail Sales

The price of the GBP will depend on how the UK economy and inflation has performed over the past month compared to expectations. According to economists, if the UK inflation rate and GDP read higher than expectations, the Pound is likely to strengthen. However, investors will also be looking closely at the UK employment data as the UK Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.4%. If the unemployment rate rises, the UK’s rate will be at its highest in 3-years and can prompt a more dovish central bank.

Currently, the Pound is the best performing currency of the day, except for the AUD and NZD. The AUD and NZD normally tend to lose momentum as the European session opens. However, the New Zealand Dollar is also gaining momentum ahead of the RBNZ’s Rate Decision. The GBP is trading 0.20% higher so far in the Asian session. Technical analyst and economists consider if investors are increasing exposure predicting positive economic data throughout the upcoming week.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the exchange is trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA for the first time since July 11th. The RSI is also trading at 59.00 which indicates buyers may be gaining control. The Japanese Yen index is trading 0.42% lower so far, therefore signalling no conflict, but investors will keep monitoring this throughout the week. Particularly once the US start releasing their inflation data. Prices above 188.405 will see stronger buy signals whereas below 186.477 will see traders look for sell signals.

USA30 (Dow Jones) – Investors Eye US Inflation and This Week’s Quarterly Earnings Reports!

On Friday, the Dow Jones traded in a sideways price range after breaking the resistance level. According to economists, the assets sideways movement is due to shareholders wanting to see the upcoming earnings reports. Economists advise the Dow Jones is appropriately priced and investors will look at economic data and earnings first before determining the intrinsic value of the asset. As a result, US data and the upcoming quarterly earnings report will be key.

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The Dow Jones On A 2-Hour Chart.

Previously, bad news was good news for the stock market. However, most shareholders will be hoping for slightly positive economic data to improve the risk appetite of the market. It will be key for the US inflation rate to fall if the stock market is to hope for a full correction back up to 14,000. Many economists advise a full correction is unlikely if inflation does not fall.

The performance of the Dow Jones will depend on the quarterly earnings reports and US inflation. The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline. Markets viewed the comments are cautious and less dovish compared to market expectations. However, if inflation does decline, market will start to price a 50-basis point cut for September.

The Dow Jones awaits key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th). Over the past 6 months Home Depot stocks have fallen 4.60% and Cisco Systems 9.00%. Walmart stocks have risen almost 20% in 6 months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Rebounds After Reassuring Guidance From Key US Companies!

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* Stocks rebound after leading economists come out in force to confirm no recession is approaching.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.87% and the Dow Jones 1.77%. The SNP500 witnesses its best day since November 2022.
* A sense of relief after the Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations.
* The British Pound gets ready for a week full of vital economic data. The GBP remains unchanged prior to the London open.

USA30 – Why The Dow Jones Rose 1.77% On Thursday?

The Dow Jones on Thursday saw a strong rebound which was a result of three elements. The first is that economists came out in force to confirm there is no sign in economic data indicating a recession. Speeches from the CEOs of Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, and Disney said there was no data pointing to a crash. However, they did advise the market is likely to witness high volatility and strong correction in the upcoming months.

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Looking at economic data, the US economy remains strongly in the growth zone, but with a more balanced employment sector and weakening consumer demand. The second element supporting the stock market is the Weekly Unemployment Claims. Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations (241,000). Lastly, technical analysts also advised the market was comfortable to buy the dip after the stock market was unable to maintain the downward momentum from Monday.

 When monitoring the individual components of the Dow Jones, all stocks ended the day higher. The strongest gains were from Intel which rose 7.90% and Amgen which won back previous losses. Caterpillar also continues to perform well after beating its earnings expectations by 8.00% also adding to the upward momentum. In addition to this, the VIX index trades 0.20% lower this morning, and if the decline increases, the VIX would support a continued correction in the stock market.

Dow Jones (USA30) – Technical Analysis and US Inflation

A key factor in the pricing of the stock market will be next week’s Consumer Price Index. The inflation rate will help determine how much the Federal Reserve will be willing to cut in September. JP Morgan in its latest report advised there is a 35% chance of a recession, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 1.00% in 2024. However, many economists believe the Fed will only cut by 50 basis points in September if inflation falls next week. Lower inflation can support the stock market and further fuel a correction.

The Dow Jones has been trading sideways throughout the Asian session with no clear lasting crossovers. In addition to this, the MACD remains numb and the price trades at the VWAP. Therefore, more volatility is needed to obtain a clear signal. If the price breaks above the 39,551.75 level, a buy signal may arise from the breakout via crossovers and Fibonacci.

GBPEUR – Investors Brace For Crucial UK Data In The Upcoming Week!

The British Pound has significantly fallen in value over the past 3 weeks but has been attempting a correction over the past 3 days. The price is at the average price, but the economic data next week will be crucial for the Pound. A full correction back to 0.83820 or further bullish price movement will depend on the data.

EURGBP – Impact Of High Interest Rates!

In the following week, the UK will release their Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, UK inflation, Retail Sales and the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. These 5 critical economic releases will indicate if the UK economy is solid and expanding or remains under pressure.

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It is noteworthy that the UK Finance association has published data indicating the significant impact of high interest rates. Experts highlight that the number of creditors’ claims for repossessing mortgaged properties has reached its highest level in five years. During this period, 96,000 homeowners were in arrears of at least 2.5%.

Additionally, claims for mortgage non-payment rose by 34.0% year-on-year while repossessions of mortgaged properties increased by 31.0% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, it will be vital for the Pound to obtain supporting economic data in the upcoming week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Drops 2% As JP Morgan Signal Possible Recession.

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* JP Morgan advises markets that the economy is at a higher risk of a recession in 2024.
* Representatives of the Federal Reserve advise they will not call for an urgent meeting to cut interest rates.
* Disney beat expectations but theme park visitors significantly fell. Economists advise this shows the drop in consumer demand and the risks of inflation over the past 3 years.
* The Japanese Yen climbs after downward pressure in the first half of the week.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Reaches a Significant Support Level!

The Dow Jones price quickly collapsed after the opening of the US trading session and continues to remain low on Thursday. The decline was largely triggered by the poor performance of Amgen (-5.00%) and Walt Disney (+4.46%). Both stocks came under pressure by the quarterly earnings report which confirmed some risks. On Wednesday, only 35% of the Dow Jones rose in value, while 65% fell.

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Dow Jones 2-Hour Chart Illustrating recent Support & Resistance Levels

Disney’s Earnings Per Share for the latest quarter were significantly higher than previous expectations. Earnings were 16% higher while revenue came in as expected. However, the poor performance of the company’s theme parks dampened sentiment and the overall stock market. According to economists, the drop in revenue from theme parks is a result of inflation and lower consumer demand which not only influences Disney’s stocks but the overall market.

In addition to this, throughout the month of August, poor data can be followed by an overreaction as the market’s risk appetite remains low and on the lookout. The next significant quarterly earnings report for the Dow Jones is Home Depot on Tuesday before the market opens.

Another factor which is adding to pressure is the latest comments from JP Morgan, one of the largest US banks of all time. According to JP Morgan, the US economy is now at a higher risk of a recession in 2024, and a recent selloff has wiped out three-quarters of the global carry trade, erasing this year’s gains.

USA30 – Technical Analysis!

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the Dow Jones continues to find support at the $38,577.09 level. However, the price is testing the level for the fourth time this week. The question is, will the index break below the price or find short-term support. Currently the price trades below the 75-Period EMA, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. However, a positive factor is the VIX index trades lower as do bond yields.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st July 2024.

How Are Earnings Shaping the NASDAQ?

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* Microsoft stocks fell 2.70% as Cloud revenue read lower than previous expectations. Overall earnings and revenue beat expectations.
* AMD and Starbucks stocks rise after releasing their quarterly earnings reports.
* Earnings support the NASDAQ after the index falls to a new monthly low.
* Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research are due to release their earnings reports after today’s market close.

USA100 – How Will Investors View The NASDAQ After The Recent Earnings Data!

Yesterday, the NASDAQ fell 1.81%, hitting a recent low and pushing the index 10.50% below its recent highs. However, the decline came to a halt as the earnings from influential companies prompted investors to purchase at the lower price. Microsoft, AMD and Starbucks made public their latest earnings report after the market close.

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Microsoft stocks, the second most influential stock holding a weight of 8.49%, fell 2.70% after releasing their earnings. The price fell due to the Cloud revenue not reaching previous expectations. However, investors should note that earnings from the Cloud sector have still significantly risen from the previous quarters and the company overall beat earnings and revenue expectations. Microsoft earnings beat expectations by 0.25% and Revenue by 0.45%.

On the other hand, AMD and Starbucks stocks rose in value after releasing their reports. AMD stocks rose 7.64% and Starbucks 3.63%. This evening, after the US market closes, Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research will release their quarterly figures. The 3 stocks make up a weight of 6.56%. This is a moderate weight and not as influential as the above-mentioned stocks. However, the release can still significantly change the sentiment towards the stock market.

The stock market fell after the US’s JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence beat expectations set by analysts. Investors will continue to monitor employment data throughout the week. However, tonight’s Federal Reserve press conference and forward guidance will be key for the foreseeable future. Particularly, a clear indication of a rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.

Analysts advise the regulator will maintain the base rate at 5.25–5.50% for the eighth consecutive meeting. However, during the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might hint at a 0.25% point rate cut in September, the first in over four years. Futures tied to the US interest rate suggest the possibility of three rate cuts this year, though most experts anticipate only two, in September and December.

The NASDAQ’s price still remains below the trend-line and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades at the Neutral level. Therefore, the price is not yet obtaining a clear longer-term buy signal yet. However, investors who wish to speculate the recent upward price movement can aim for the recent resistance level at $19,194.03, which is also in line with the trend-line.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th July 2024.

The Japanese Yen Leads as Global Central Banks Anticipate Cuts!

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A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2016. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo - RTX2UM36

* Markets watch global central banks confirm their latest rate decision. This week includes Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
* Global stocks rose on Monday! The NASDAQ rises 0.67% as major tech-earnings edge nearer.
* Tuesday’s earnings releases include Microsoft, ADM and Starbucks.
* Analysts expect the Fed to ready the markets for their first interest rate cut since 2020.

USA100 – Market Shows A “Risk-On” Appetite Ahead Of Microsoft Earnings!

After a nearly 10% drop in July, the NASDAQ seeks to regain momentum before a major bank decision. This week’s central bank decisions include Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged but signal to the market that an adjustment will take place in September. However, according to most analysts, the Bank of England is more likely to cut than the Fed if a shock decision is to take place.

The latest price action forms higher highs and lows but continues to remain below the recent high from June 25th. As a result, technical analysts advise a correction is not yet fully signaled. According to fundamentalists, strong earnings data on Tuesday is not likely required to strengthen signals pointing to a full correction.
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Tuesday evening will see Microsoft, AMD and Starbucks release their latest earnings reports. The three companies make up more than 10% of the weight of the NASDAQ, hence can trigger strong volatility. Analysts expect Microsoft, the second most influential stock for the NASDAQ, to see earnings remain unchanged from the previous quarter and revenue to rise by $2.58 billion. The stock this year so far has risen 14.70% and $52 below its recent high.

According to fundamental analysts, if the earnings data from Microsoft and AMD beat expectations and the Fed confirms a rate cut in September, the possibility of a correction significantly increases, if not certain. Currently, the market movement indicates a higher risk appetite and sentiment amongst investors. All global indices are trading higher including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei225. In addition to this, US bond yields fall as does the VIX. If both continue to fall, the movement will indicate a “risk on” appetite.

GBPJPY – Will the BoE Adjust Interest Rates?

The Japanese Yen has been by far the best performing currency over the past week, increasing in value by 2.50%. The British Pound is also the worst performing currency of the day declining by 0.20%. According to experts, the Bank of England is not likely to cut interest rates at this week’s rate decision but will lay the path down for a rate cut at the next meeting.

Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW, advises he still expects the BoE to lower interest rates to 4.75% by the end of 2024, however, “a rate cut this month is looking less likely”,whereas a Reuters poll found that 80.0% of respondents, expect the UK regulator to cut interest rates in August.  Nonetheless, a shock rate cut or a clear signal for the next rate decision can still pressure the British Pound if the signal is clear enough. Simultaneously, the JPY is benefiting as the only currency to see a strengthening monetary policy while the rest of the world cuts.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th July 2024.

The Yen Soars as the Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike Rises!

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* The Japanese Yen wins back some lost ground as global Central Banks edge closer to rate cuts.
* The probability of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan increases.
* July’s best performing currencies are the Japanese Yen (+4.35%), British Pound (+1.41%) and the Swiss Franc (+1.41%).
* Currencies are taking advantage of the weaker US Dollar, but the worst performing currency remains the New Zealand Dollar.

USDJPY – Growing Likelihood of a Second BoJ Rate Hike!

The USDJPY increases in value for a third consecutive week and for a fourth consecutive day. Three factors are contributing to the Dollar decline: The Fed’s upcoming interest cut, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike and the political uncertainty in the US. The day’s best performing currency is the Japanese Yen which is currently increasing in value against all currencies.

Currently, the USDJPY is trading below the trend-line and below the 100-Period SMA which indicates in the medium-term sellers are controlling the price actions. The exchange rate is also below the neutral on all oscillators and forms a clear bearish trend price pattern. Currently the only indications pointing towards a loss of bearish momentum is the diversion formed on the RSI. As a result, even though the trend clearly forms downwards, investors need to be cautious of a potential retracement. If the price trades above 152.96, a larger retracement becomes likely. However, if the price falls below 152.015, momentum will indicate the continuation of the downward trend to 151.674 in the short term and 151.267 thereafter.

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The likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Japanese regulator is growing. Preliminary data for July showed an increase in business activity, indicating a recovery in the national economy. The consumer price index remains above the target level, reaching 2.8% in June, with the core indicator stabilizing around 2.6%. Officials are optimistic about maintaining these high levels, supported by significant wage increases.

According to Reuters, Bank of Japan officials will discuss the possibility of raising the interest rate at their meeting on July 31st. Analysts do not expect active measures until after the summer months. However, investors will price in the adjustment before the decision takes place.

The US Fed experts may turn to “dovish” rhetoric in September, which puts pressure on the dollar. Currently, inflation is slowing growth, business activity is declining, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling.

The US PMI data from yesterday largely triggered an attempted bullish correction but was viewed as mixed. The price action of the US Dollar and the USDJPY will now largely depend on the Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims. These will be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US economy to grow 2.0%. If the US GDP reading is lower than expectations, the US Dollar potentially can come under pressure. At the same time, weaker earnings data from the US can trigger higher demand for the Japanese Yen. The Yen is known as a safe haven currency alternative to the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th July 2024.

Market News – AI mania over? Stocks, Gold & oil dip; Yen Surges.

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Wall Street plunged and Treasuries bear steepened in an anxious trade.
* News that ex-Fed president Dudley was now calling for the FOMC to cut rates next week amid recession fears added to investor angst.
* European stock markets continued to decline alongside Asian equity futures, intensifying a global downturn in technology shares following US session, as investors are pulling back on the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market this year.
* Traders moved away from megacaps to underperforming segments of the market, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and doubts about AI’s immediate payoff.
* Nasdaq experienced its largest single-day drop since 2022, while S&P 500 breaks Its longest run without a 2% drop since 2007.
* The Canadian Dollar dropped as the Bank of Canada cut rates, emphasizing “downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations.”
* The Japanese Yen reached its highest level since May as carry trades unwound.
* Key events today: Germany IFO business climate, US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods.

Asian & European Open:

* Tech led the slump with the NASDAQ dropping -3.64%, the biggest 1-day selloff since March 2020. The S&P500 fell -2.31%. The Dow dropped -1.25%. Disappointing news from Alphabet and Tesla after the bell Tuesday got the bears going and rising concerns over the staying power of AI trades exacerbated declines through the day.
* In Japan, Nikkei entered a technical correction while the broad Topix index, which had reached a record high earlier this month, plunged over 2.5%, erasing its July gains and hitting a five-week low.
* Earning: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to report results next week.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex tumbled to 104.12 in morning action, down from Tuesday’s 104.45, but rallied back slightly to close at 104.37.
* The Yen holds strong thanks to expectations for a BoJ rate hike next Wednesday, with USDJPY breaching 200-day EMA. The USD firmed versus CAD after the BoC’s dovish cut. The USDCAD reached April’s peak at 1.3827.
* Oil prices declined, but are once again trying to stabilize, following API data showing that US crude inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week. Inventories have declined for four straight weeks now. However, weak growth in top importer China and renewed optimism of a ceasefire in the Middle East have kept supply expectations underpinned. WTI is currently trading at USD 77.38 per barrel, Brent at USD 81.49 as markets wait for the official U.S. inventory report.
* Gold is down to $2370 to a two-week low. The downfall could be attributed to some technical selling, though it is expected to be limited, considering the fundamentals, such as Fed’s cut and the risk-off mood which could support Gold ahead of the US data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks dip as earnings disappoint; Yen strengthens further.

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The market faces pressure entering a seasonally weak period, with potential increased volatility due to the upcoming US presidential election.
* Asian stocks and US stock futures also fell, impacted by earnings reports from large American firms like Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc., which were seen as insufficient to sustain the recent global equity rally.
* European stock futures declined as investors evaluated the disappointing initial results from the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech companies.
* The Yen strengthened for the third consecutive day ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Asian & European Open:

* The S&P500 and Dow slipped -0.16% and -0.14%, respectively, and the NASDAQ slid -0.06%. The VIX was down -1.74% to 14.65 and has eased from the 16.52 level on Friday, the highest since April amid rising political risks and anxieties.
* Taiwan’s stock market was closed due to Typhoon Gaemi, meaning shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. did not trade.
* Alphabet shares fell after the company indicated that it would take time to see tangible results from its AI investments.
* Tesla shares dropped as much as 7% following a profit miss and a delay in its Robotaxi event to October. Many of Tesla’s suppliers and electric vehicle peers in Asia also saw declines.
* Deutsche Bank AG reported its first quarterly loss in 4 years due to a slowdown in trading and a charge related to a legacy issue at its Postbank retail unit.
* BNP Paribas SA’s profit increased in the second quarter, driven by a surge in equities trading revenue.
* United Parcel Service Inc. experienced its worst drop ever following a profit miss.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex had found its footing, firming to 104.25 versus 103.90 on Monday.
* The Yen appreciated beyond 155  for the first time since early June as traders anticipated a potential interest rate hike from the BOJ in the coming months, if not at next week’s meeting. According to a Bloomberg survey, around 30% of BOJ watchers expect a rate hike on July 31, but over 90% believe there is a risk of such a move.
* The NZDUSD dropped at 0.5900 to its lowest level in nearly 3 months as lower bond yields discouraged carry trade investors.
* Oil fell -1.45% to $77.26, though managed to edge up from the $76.40 session low. It is a 4th straight decline from $82.85 Wednesday and the weakest since mid-June. Most of week’s selling was on technicals after penetrating 50- and 100-day MA.
* Gold is up to $2418 per ounce. It was at an all-time closing peak of $2469.08 on July 16 amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, US political risks, and the drop in the US Dollar. Of note, India lowered its import duty on gold to 6% from 15% which should support jewelry manufacturing. India is next only to China in terms of consumer demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd July 2024.

Market News – Uncertainty remains the bane of the markets!

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* President Biden announced he is withdrawing from the re-election campaign. In a subsequent comment, he stated his support for Kamala Harris. He will address the nation later this week. This throws the Democrat party into more disarray as it heads into its convention from August 19-22.
* These uncertainties will further shake up the markets when trading opens.
* For weeks, investors have speculated about an increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the November election, especially after Biden’s underwhelming debate performance. Now, with Biden exiting the race, investors are reconsidering their strategies regarding a potential Trump victory.
* China’s PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by -10 bps to 1.70% from 1.80% in a surprise move coming out of the Third Plenum.
* Earnings: Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will kick off earnings reports for the “Magnificent Seven” on Tuesday, while major European banks are set to report their earnings this week as well. Analysts will be watching to see if the benefits from higher interest rates are diminishing and how recent political developments are impacting market sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* It is a cautious, choppy start to trading in the wake of the news. This negative start to the week mirrored the losses seen on Wall Street on Friday, as businesses globally dealt with a major technology outage.
* Asian stock markets mostly fell after President Joe Biden’s announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has rallied 0.82% but the Nikkei is down -1.3% amid the fallout from Friday’s slump on Wall Street.
* US futures remained relatively stable while European stock futures are higher.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has traded narrowly, but initially dropped to 103.90 versus Friday’s close at 104.396. It is mixed against its G10 peers.
* USDCNY has been jumpy, impacted both by the PBoC’s news as well as the Biden news earlier. The buck rose to 7.2737 in early action before sliding to 7.2706. It has edged back to 7.2730.
* Metals showed mixed results following their worst weekly decline in nearly two years, with a rate cut in China helping to stabilize the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th July 2024.

Global Stocks Tumble as Risk Appetite Plummets!

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US ECONOMY

* The NASDAQ declines for a third straight day and fell to its lowest level for July.
* Netflix Quarterly Earnings Report unable to support US indices. The Dow Jones loses momentum after 6 straight bullish days.
* The US Dollar Index attempts to regain losses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays
* The British Pound comes under pressure from the decline in Retail Sales. However, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be the worst performing currency.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar is losing momentum for two reasons. The first is that the exchange rate is largely being driven by the Dollar which has risen in value across the board. The US Dollar Index is attempting to regain loses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays open. This is partially due to the lower price but also the lower investor sentiment as stocks falls over the past 3 trading days.

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The second reason is the poor economic data from the UK which is likely to pressure the Bank of England to adjust interest rates at the next meeting. According to economists a 25-basis point cut at the next meeting is not yet certain. However, a cut will take place either on the 1st of August or September 19th unless something drastic changes. The poor data includes the number of new unemployed individuals which has considerably risen over the past 2 months. This morning, the UK government also confirmed Retail Sales has fallen 1.2% which is double the decline previously expected.

For the US, weekly employment data was released yesterday: the number of Unemployment claims rose by 243,000, exceeding both the forecast of 229,000 and the previous figure of 223,000. Additionally, the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, raising the likelihood of interest rate adjustments in September. According to most analysts, the rate cut for September is fully priced in at around 103.20 for as long as other central banks also adjust.

The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published this week, indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, but businesses expect a slowdown over the next six months due to the US election campaign and consumers struggling with prices. However, the lower risk appetite is triggering higher demand for the Dollar over the past 48 hours. It’s vital investors continue to monitor the US Dollar Index while analysing the GBPUSD.

The price of the exchange is now trading below the 75-Period EMA and below the 50.00 on the RSI. This indicates low sentiment towards the Pound and bearish control for the time being. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a sell signal will arise at the 1.29290 price whereas the breakout level indicates 1.29261. however, if the price rises above 1.29400 or the trendline, short-term sell signals become unlikely.

USA100

The price of the NASDAQ has now fallen for 3 consecutive days but did see less downward momentum compared to Wednesday’s collapse. The index has now fully corrected the gains for the first 2 weeks of the month and is trading close to the previous support level. However, as previously mentioned, due to the higher economic risk, investors will most likely need strong earnings data to be tempted to purchase the discount unless the price becomes even more favourable.

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The price of Bond Yields has risen during this morning’s Asian session and the VIX is also trading slightly higher. The VIX this week has already added almost 10% which indicates a significant decline in risk appetite. In addition to this, the poor data from the rest of the world’s leading economies can also damage sentiment towards stocks. Currently the biggest indication for short term upward price movement is the lower price and potential upcoming earnings data.

Netflix has released their earnings report overnight. The company’s earnings read 2.40% higher than expectations at $4.88 and revenue was 3 million higher than expectations. However, the stock is yet to see any major volatility or support. Currently the stock trades 0.18% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th July 2024.

Escalating Tariffs on China Spark a Major Selloff in Tech Stocks!

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* Investors expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at 4.25%.
* US confirms new sanctions against China primarily aimed at semiconductors applying significant pressure on Tech Stocks.
* The NASDAQ trades more than 4% lower than its recent highs. Investors reduce their involvement in growth stocks as top economists predict a decline in consumer demand.
* The top 10 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ fell an average of 3.97% on Wednesday. Netflix due to release their earnings report today after market close.

USA100 – Tariffs Intensify Against China Triggering A Tech-Stocks Selloff!

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ fell a total of 2.82% and is trading 4.25% lower than its recent highs. The reason behind the quick selloff is twofold. At first the NASDAQ saw lower demand as leading bankers and economists signalled weaker consumer demand from the lower income portion of the economy. The second is the United States decision to intensify sanctions on chips being sold to China. As a result, the semiconductor sector took a big hit and had a domino effect on the rest of the technology market.

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The Semiconductor selloff seen yesterday was the biggest in four years, but investors also should note that at some point a lower price can trigger investors to buy the dip. Though the question remains as to when that is likely to happen.  After the market close, in after trading hours, most of the semiconductor sector rose in value, but still remain significantly lower than the open price.

Investor willingness to purchase the dip will also depend on earnings data which will start this evening. Netflix is due to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to rise from $4.54 to $4.76 and for revenue to increase by 25 million. Netflix’s stock fell less than other components during yesterday’s decline which can be perceived as a positive. However, the price action will depend on tonight’s reports.

Investors are only likely to enter at the discounted price if earnings data from the most influential companies beat expectations and cool down concern over consumer demand. The most influential day for earnings will be next Tuesday where Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Tesla and Visa release their reports. Whereas, if earnings are not able to increase demand, the sanctions imposed have the ability to reduce sentiment towards the sector for a prolonged period.

Currently, the price of the NASDAQ trades lower than most Moving Averages and lower than the neutral on the RSI. However, the price is retracing upwards. Therefore, investors will monitor whether the price will attempt a correction or decline further. If the price falls below $19,879.33, momentum indicators are likely to signal a decline, whereas above $20,100 will bring the price above the trend line which can indicate an attempted correction to $20,405.

EURGBP – UK Adds High Number Of Unemployment Claims!

The price of the EURGBP increased in value after the UK’s Claimant Claims rose by 32,300, almost 10,000 more than analysts’ expectations. Over the past two months the UK has added 82,600 more unemployed individuals. As a result, the Bank of England may be more tempted to decrease interest rates at the next meeting but according to analysts this is not yet certain.

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Nonetheless, the price has increased 0.11% and risen above the 75-Period Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. If the price rises above 0.84145, the exchange rate potentially will maintain a buy signal. This will also depend on today’s ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 4.25% but are hoping for guidance on when the next cut is likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th July 2024.

Gold Hits New All-Time High as Investors Flee the Dollar!

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* Gold reaches an all-time high as investors look to mitigate away from political risk and a potential economic slowdown.
* UK inflation remains unchanged whereas analysts previously expected a 0.1% decline.
* Economists contemplate whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting.
* All US indices increase in value bar the NASDAQ which fell 0.18%. The SNP500 rises 0.64% and the Dow Jones 1.85%.

XAUUSD – Gold Rises To All-Time High!

Gold rises to an all-time high after increasing in value by almost 2% on Tuesday. Investors are turning to Gold in an attempt to mitigate political risk, interest rate adjustments and also the possibility of weaker economic growth. Weaker economic growth has been mentioned by leading economists over the past week which is prompting higher gold demand.

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However, the price of Gold did witness an overbought signal on the RSI for the first time this week at $2,472.85 and soon after fell 0.45%. Here we can see how the RSI assisted traders with determining that Gold may have stretched too far. Currently, as the price retraces lower, the price is no longer overbought and still continues to maintain buy signals on the 2-hour timeframe. Though investors will look for bullish momentum to build before speculating in favor for the trend. For example, if breakout signals can be seen at $2,470.95 and $2,472.70 or Fibonacci retracement signals a buy indication at $2,475.00.

A positive factor for Gold is the decline in the US Dollar which currently is trading 0.08% lower this morning. Though, investors would prefer the decline to gain momentum. In addition to this, the pricing of interest rate adjustments is also supporting the value of Gold. According to the CME Exchange, there is a 93% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 7% chance of a 50-basis point cut for September.

A large portion of the demand for Gold in 2024 derives from China and is largely the reason why gold has surged more than 21% so far this year. China will suspend gold supplies, but experts believe the government will continue to import without reporting it. It may indicate an intention to purchase more gold than before, following the trend set by global central banks, which are actively replenishing their reserves. Thus, the National Bank of Poland increased gold volumes by 4.0 tons in June. Additionally, the National Bank of India purchased 9.0 tons, and now the country’s reserves amount to 841.0 tons. Regardless of this, lower interest rates can support Gold and short-term traders will focus on the trend and technical analysis.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Remains Sticky!

The price of GBPUSD has increased in value after the UK inflation remained at 2.00% instead of declining to 1.9%. As a result, economists are contemplating whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting. Previously, investors were leaning more towards a cut in August. Currently investors monitoring price action are evaluating whether the price will rise above the most recent resistance level which has formed a double top.

The price of the US Dollar will also be detrimental to the price movement of the exchange. Currently, the US Dollar Index has fallen 0.12% so far this morning. Throughout the day the Building Permits and Industrial Production will influence the price of the US Dollar. The GBP will now turn its attention to the release of the UK’s Claimant Claims Change and Average Earnings Index.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th July 2024.

Pound Leads Currencies This Month Despite Upcoming Rate Cut!

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* The Pound continues to be the month’s best performing currency and attempts to break resistance levels as the currency rises close to a 12-month high.
* Goldman Sachs beats earnings and revenue expectations boosting banking stocks. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo stocks increase.
* The Dow Jones outperforms the NASDAQ and SNP500 on Monday. Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar were the best performers.
* Federal Reserve Chairman advises economic growth likely to slow and employment to become more balanced.

GBPUSD – Economists Expect The UK Economy To Perform Better Than Previous Expectations.

The GBPUSD, after increasing in value for 2 consecutive weeks, finds itself close to a 12-month high and closer to its traditional value prior to COVID and PM Truss. The British Pound has been the best performing currency of July and has risen in value against all major currencies. The US Dollar has been one of the worst performing, but traders may also benefit from glancing at the weakest which currently are the NZD and JPY.

Technical analysis in recent days has been pointing towards an upward trend as the price trades above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. Fundamental analysis is also supporting a weaker Dollar as a rate cut becomes certain for September 2024.

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Though, the price over the past two trading days has struggled to increase above the 1.29897 resistance level. The exchange rate has failed to break this level on 3 attempts and mainly formed a psychological price for investors. However, this will largely depend on today’s US Retail Sales and tomorrow’s UK inflation rate.

Analysts believe the UK inflation rate will fall from 2.00% to 1.9%, which is below the Bank of England’s target. Nevertheless, the regulator will be happy to allow inflation to fall slightly below due to the cost-of-living crisis of the past 3 years. The Bank of England’s rate decision will take place on August 1st, and an interest rate cut will become more likely if inflation falls to 1.9%. Currently, most economists expect a rate adjustment.

A rate cut traditionally is bad for the currency, however, it can make the economy more attractive for foreign investors. However, investors should note, currency traders will simultaneously price in a cut from the Fed. The Chicago Exchange for the first time fully prices in a rate cut for September.

For the US Dollar, the latest developments continue to point towards slower economic growth and unemployment rising slightly higher. Yesterday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index again read lower than expectations. In addition to this, Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, also reaffirmed this is also the Central Bank’s expectations. Whereas the analysts expect the UK economy to rebound faster than previous years. Analysts also note that the US Bond Yields trade 24-points lower, which is known to be negative for the Dollar.

Therefore, many fundamental factors also indicate a GBPUSD bullish trend. However, in the short-term technical analysis will be key. Traders may opt to keep buy trades short term unless strong momentum indicates a break above the key resistance level which is close. However, if a retracement is to continue, price action points towards the retracement falling down to 1.29238.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Outperforms All Indices!

The Dow Jones, which traditionally is less prone to trends, was the best performing index on Monday. Yesterday, it rose to an all-time high after increasing for 3 consecutive weeks. The bullish trend has partially been due to the market pricing in an interest rate cut for September but also earnings data from the banking sector.

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Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to release their quarterly earnings report. The bank’s earnings were slightly higher than previous expectations, but lower than the previous quarter. Revenue beat Wall Street’s expectations by 2.89%. As a result, stocks from the banking sector rose in value helping the bullish trend of the Dow Jones.

However, investors are concerned regarding comments from key economists and the Fed’s Chairman. The recent forward guidance is lower economic growth and higher unemployment. This can be concerning for the stock market if economic data weakens, and leading companies provide similar guidance. Another concern is that only 55% of the Dow Jones’s 30 stocks rose in value. Though, the 55% that rose saw stronger volatility.

Today UnitedHealth Group will release their earnings report. Currently, analysts believe the earnings will more or less be similar to the previous quarter. UnitedHealth Group is the index’s most influential stock and is likely to create volatility. However, this may also potentially be a retracement, not necessarily a guaranteed upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th July 2024.

US Stocks Surge Amid Banking Sector Concerns Over Consumer Demand!

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* US Banks beat earnings expectations but warn of financial stress amongst lower and middle-income consumers over the upcoming months.
* Producer Inflation unexpectedly remains high, but investors opt to take advantage of the lower price.
* Political experts advise Trump’s chances of winning this year’s elections are significantly higher after the recent assassination attempt.
* All currencies indexes decline as the US Dollar attempts to win back some lost ground.

USA100 – Large US Banks Voice Caution As Consumer Demand Falls!

The NASDAQ rose on Friday despite the US inflation data reading higher than what investors would have preferred. According to analysts, investors preferred to take advantage of the lower purchase price and Thursday’s 2.20% decline. Investors potentially may still look to increase exposure in stocks and indices to price in a rate cut and strong earnings data.

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The Producer Price Index read 0.2% vs 0.1% expectation. Though investors were concerned that the Core Producer Price Index was more than double previous expectations. However, the positive news is that the US inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.0%, the lowest since June 2023. Today investors will focus on the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index which could benefit from a slightly higher reading. In addition to this, the Fed Chairman will speak at 16:00 GMT which may also trigger volatility depending on comments.

None of the earnings reports released Friday were part of the NASDAQ index, but they surely grabbed investors’ attention. JP Morgan, CitiGroup and Wells Fargo all beat earnings and revenue expectations, however, all stocks depreciated in the session that followed. Particularly Wells Fargo which fell more 6.00%.

The main cause was the forward guidance given by all 3 banks regarding the economic conditions in the upcoming months ahead of the elections. Profits at Citi’s US consumer lending division, which encompasses credit cards, plummeted by 74% compared to last year. The bank’s chief financial officer, Mark Mason, noted that consumer spending is generally declining, with account balances now falling below pre-Covid levels. In addition to this, JP advises lower income consumers are likely to struggle over the next 3-4 months.

Nonetheless, in terms of technical analysis, the price of the NASDAQ is again trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades above the 50.00 level which indicates buyers are regaining control of the market. Buy signals are likely to strengthen as the price crosses above the $20,471.10 and $20,552.77 levels.

EURUSD – The Dollar Gains As The Exchange Rate Rises To Previous Resistance Level!

The EURUSD currently trades with an extremely low spread and a bearish price gap. The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.15% higher while the Euro Index is 0.16% lower. However, on the medium-term timeframe the Euro is witnessing significant gains against the Dollar after rising for 3 consecutive weeks. However, this has brought the exchange rate to the previous resistance level of the price range. Therefore, technical analysts are considering whether this may be the point where the EURUSD retraces lower.

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Currently, the support and breakout level can be seen at 1.08823 and if the price falls below this level potentially can prompt a short-term sell signal. A short-term sell signal potentially can indicate a decline to the 1.08667 level. The Empire State Manufacturing Index this afternoon potentially can support momentum to form a breakout if the index reads higher than current expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th July 2024.

Market News – The Aftermaths of Inflation.

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries surged after a much cooler than expected CPI report that saw Fed funds futures price in a -25 bp rate cut for September, more than 2 quarter point moves over the rest of the year, and 3 cuts by the end of Q1 2025.
* Australian and New Zealand government bonds rallied, taking cues from their US counterparts.
* European stocks open muted, following a sharp decline in Asian equities driven by a significant drop in technology stocks. Despite this recent downturn, global stocks are on track for their 6th consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since March, buoyed by expectations of Fed easing which have supported overall risk sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street was not as enthused, although it’s coming off of prior strong gains. The NASDAQ slumped -1.95% and the S&P500 slid -0.88% to 5584. Cash fled some of the safety of the mag 7. The Dow was up 0.08%.
* Disappointing earnings from Delta and PepsiCo weighed heavily.
* The Euro Stoxx 50 futures showed minimal change, mirroring the stability seen in US stock futures after a tech-driven selloff on Thursday.

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Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex took it on the chin, falling to 104.07 from the high of 104.99 on the dovish Fed outlook.
* A lot of the weakness came from JPY as USDJPY crashed 4-handles, as there were reports of intervention. The Bank of Japan conducted rate checks with traders, reinforcing the belief that authorities had intervened in the market on Thursday to support the currency.
* Oil prices rallied for a 3rd day in a row boosted by the US inflation which cooled broadly in June to the slowest pace since 2021. Bets rose that the Fed will start to reduce borrowing costs this quarter.
* Gold corrects some of yesterday’s gains, back to 2400.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th July 2024.

Stocks Rise as Analysts Predict Inflation Will Drop to a 5-Month Low.

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* NASDAQ’s most influential stocks witness significant gains on Wednesday including Apple +1.88%, Microsoft +1.46% and Alphabet +1.17%.
* Investors fix their attention on today’s US Inflation rate which analysts expect to fall from 3.3% to 3.1%. Markets predict US Core Inflation to remain at 3.4%.
* KeyBanc Capital Markets raised NVIDIA’s target price from $130 to $180, maintaining the overweight rating.
* Gold increases in value ahead of today’s inflation data and outperforms all currencies.

USA100 (NASDAQ) – Stocks Rise Ahead Of Today’s Inflation Reading!

The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as investors price in a rate cut for September. On Wednesday, the price of the index rose 1.05%, but the bullish price movement will depend on today’s inflation reading. Investors are anticipating a decrease in inflation, but if this expectation is not met, it could result in downward pressure. However, if inflation does decline to 3.1% or lower shareholders are less likely to sell shares ahead of earnings season. As a result, the bullish trend is potentially likely to continue.

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The September cut scenario has become the main outcome due to the rise in unemployment and the change in the tone of the Federal Reserve. Earlier this week the Fed Chairman said the employment sector is showing signs of weakening while yesterday the Fed Governor advised inflation will reach the target without the Unemployment Rate rising much further. The lower interest rates support the economy but also makes bonds and the US Dollar less attractive.

Only 25% of the NASDAQ’s 100 stocks declined on Wednesday which applied minimal pressure. The bullish price movement was largely driven by the top 8 most influential stocks which all rose in value. These 8 stocks make up 49.08% of the whole index. The only stocks which applied minor pressure were Netflix which fell 1.18% and Intuit, down 2.70%. The two stocks hold a weight of 3.08%.

One of the stocks which have significantly supported the NASDAQ in 2023 and 2024 so far is NVIDIA. According to leading analysts, the company’s quarterly report is set slightly later than its main competitors. This could provide an advantage and an opportunity to improve its performance. KeyBanc Capital Markets have raised the target price from $130 to $180. They attribute this to higher-than-expected demand for GB200 graphics processors, particularly the more expensive NVL72 configuration, which is gaining more interest compared to the previously popular NVL36. Wolfe Research LLC has also adjusted its price target from $125 to $150.

Currently the price is trading within a symmetrical triangle meaning the price shows a lower high but a higher low. Volatility is likely to remain minimal until the US Consumer Price Index. If the Consumer Price Index reads as expected and the price increases, traders should be cautious that profits are not hit, and the price retraces. In the medium to longer term, the price remains above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. This indicates buyers are controlling the market. Based on price action, buy signals are likely to materialize again if the price rises above $20,697.40.
XAUUSD – Gold Gains Momentum, Capitalizing on the Weaker Dollar!

The price of Gold has benefited from the lower price of the US Dollar and the pricing of an interest rate cut by September. The commodity is forming higher highs and higher lows, which is a positive sign, but traders should note retracements are quick and large, meaning caution is wise.

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Another positive sign is the price of Gold is currently performing better than all other currencies within the market. However, investors will largely be monitoring the US Dollar which is currently declining 0.08%.

A weaker US Dollar has the potential to support the price of gold; however, if inflation falls significantly below current expectations, it may undermine gold’s bullish price action. This is because gold is also used as a hedge against inflation. According to the Fibonacci retracement levels, buy signals will form if the price breaks above the $2,381.62 levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks advance, Kiwi & Dollar dip.

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The rising political uncertainties, and the wait for more data to clarify the Fed’s rate cut path, are combining with summer doldrums to keep trading quiet and range bound.

* Fed Chair Powell did not say anything really new in his Senate testimony, as expected. There were a few nuances, though, that further support expectations that the next move will be a cut.
* Financials led the way for the broad index after Chair Powell indicated a re-proposal for Basel III rules would be sent out, giving banks more time and breathing room.
* RBNZ delivers dovish hold, as the comments set the stage for a rate cut later in the year and the NZD weakened as local bonds rallied. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its official cash rate at 5.50%, but signalled that it is inching closer to a rate cut. The statement said “restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1-3 percent target range in the second half of the year.”
* China’s consumer prices saw a slight increase in June, staying close to zero for the 5th month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures hindering economic recovery. Meanwhile, factory-gate prices remained in deflation.
* Japan’s largest banks urged the Bank of Japan to significantly reduce its monthly bond purchases during recent central bank hearings.

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Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street and Treasuries were mixed. The S&P500 advanced 0.10% to 5577, a 6th straight day of gains (the best since the start of the year) and another fresh high, the 36th record for 2024. The NASDAQ was 0.11% firmer at 18,429, also at a new peak, its 26th for the year.
* Japanese stocks advanced, while those in China and Australia declined. Nikkei surged to another record high, approaching 42,000.
* The heavy tilt towards the tech sector has heightened risks if the AI-driven rally stumbles. Valuations are high, and earnings growth is expected to slow, adding uncertainty for investors banking on Big Tech’s continued rise. Citigroup strategists, suggest it might be time to take profits in leading AI stocks, despite strong sentiment and better-than-expected free cash flow projections for these firms.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex declined from 105.208 back to 104.70.
* Oil prices have continued to decline, as Chinese demand and continued uncertainty over the timeline for Fed interest rate cuts outweighed signs of another inventory draw in the US.
* Gold slightly higher at 2372 amid Dollar strength.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks Under Pressure Ahead of Powell.

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Trading was nondescript with the markets digesting recent data, including the jobs report, and events including the elections overseas.
* Asian stock markets were supported, however, the positive mood didn’t spill over into Europe, where indexes are mostly lower.
* US futures are finding some buyers but investors are cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony. Powell will be questioned on the prospects for rate cuts.
* Japan: the BoJ will speak face-to-face with market participants over the next couple of days as the bank tries to set a realistic pace for the planned reduction of bond purchases.
* China: investors continue to weigh the bank’s new liquidity operations. The bank is aiming to take greater control over short-term borrowing costs and investors seem to take it like a rate hike, which put pressure on bonds. Markets are also looking ahead to the biggest annual policy meeting, with hopes of additional stimulus measures.

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street was mixed. Strength in big tech rallied the NASDAQ and S&P500, albeit marginally, with gains of 0.28% and 0.10%, respectively. But the gains were enough for more fresh highs, the 25th and 35th of the year.
* Nikkei and Sensex touched fresh all-time highs, after the S&P500 led the way.
Long bonds are also down in Europe and the US, after a drop in yields across key Asian markets.

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Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex softened to a session nadir of 104.80 on broadbased weakness, and especially as GBP and EUR stabilized. But the buck rebounded confidently to 105.09.
Bitcoin steadied but remains below the key $59k level.
Oil remained relatively stable following a 2-day decline, as Hurricane Beryl appeared less likely to cause significant disruptions to Texas’ crude infrastructure. However it’s hovering at the key 81.60 level (repeated resistance in the mid of June).
Gold steadied after experiencing its largest drop in two weeks on Monday, while copper edged lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th July 2024.

Market News – Asian & European Stocks Decline, Bitcoin Falls, and Key Economic Events Ahead

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Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Asian stocks mostly fell today, along with European and especially French bond markets which sold off modestly, with the Euro dropping on the shock French election outcome.
* Europe: The French leftist alliance is the surprise victor, winning the most seats. This outcome potentially limits the influence of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, both of which support increased public spending.
* Losses in the Euro and European bonds were tempered by the uncertainty still surrounding the structure of the next French government. The key questions for the markets include who the prime minister will be, how effectively they can collaborate with the far left to pass legislation, and crucially, what this will mean for France’s fiscal discipline.
* US: The US Jobs report revealed modest downside payroll surprises via revision and weak civilian jobs data that raised the jobless rate and exacerbated the big household-establishment divergence since late-2023.
* China: The PBOC aimed to gain more control over market interest rates by announcing additional open market operations and tightening the band for short-term rate fluctuations.
Key events: Fed Chair Powell testimony and US inflation data are key events. Earnings reports from major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., are anticipated, along with rate decisions in New Zealand and South Korea.

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.

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The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th July 2024.

NFP Is Here! How Will Today’s NFP Impact The NASDAQ

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* Labour win UK Elections, receiving an unconditional majority of seats in the House of Commons (410 out of 650).
* The British Pound and FTSE100 increase in value as Labour wins an outright majority.
* The Japanese Yen sharply increases in value as the US Dollar underperforms ahead of the US employment data.
* Investors turn their attention to today’s NFP release and Unemployment Data!

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.

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The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

Date: 4th July 2024.

Gold and Stocks Rise As Markets Increase Rate Cut Bets For September!

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* The NASDAQ and SNP500 increase to new all-time highs despite economic and employment data reading lower than expectations.
* The FOMC continues the previous verbal trend set by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, advising inflation needs to decline further.
* The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility.
* Gold quickly increases as an interest rate cut looks more likely for September.

USA100 – Bad News is Good News for the NASDAQ!

This week, the NASDAQ is the second best-performing index behind the NIKKEI225. The NASDAQ is now trading at its highest price ever and has added more than 23% in 2024. The price is being driven by investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates in September. As a result, the stock has become more attractive and consumer demand potentially can improve.

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This week so far, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the chairman of the Federal Reserve have indicated that inflation is on the right path. However, the Federal Reserve will need inflation to continue to decline between now and September’s Rate decision. Even with just a 0.1% monthly decline, which would reduce inflation to 3.00%, market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve will still alter its policy!

The latest data also supports the possibility of frailty within the US economy and growth. The ISM Services PMI fell to its lowest in 2024, the weekly unemployment claims again read higher and the ADP Employment Change fell short. However, the JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations. Therefore, the data pressures the Fed that the economy will soon need support, but simultaneously does not cause panic amongst investors. At the moment, bad news continues to be good news for the stock market. However, the question is if this will continue when tomorrow’s NFP data is released.

Many believe the trend will continue regarding “bad news is good news”. However, most also believe that the ideal release would be slightly poorer than expectations. Analysts currently believe the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.00%, the NFP to add 194,000 new individuals and for salaries to rise 0.3%. Volatility throughout today may be muted due to the US bank holiday, however, volatility potentially can quickly rise as Asian Market’s reopen tomorrow morning!

A positive factor for the NASDAQ continues to be the upcoming earnings data, but also hopes that tensions in the Middle East may subside. Reports confirm that Israel and Hamas may be close to an agreement which will stop the current war, even if only temporarily. If an agreement is reached, the news will be deemed as positive for the stock market and can reduce oil prices. Oil prices this morning have so far fallen 0.35%!

XAUUSD – Gold Benefits From Rate Cute Bets!

Gold’s price rose as the US Dollar became less attractive to investors due to potential lower interest rates in September. The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility, hence a considerable rise which can support Gold. If the possibility continues to rise, investors may increase exposure to Gold. The price of Gold rose 1.15% on Wednesday.

If the employment data is weaker than what analysts are currently expecting, investors potentially may turn to Gold as an alternative. This is due to the commodity’s safe haven nature and its use as a hedge. For example, if the US Unemployment Rate rises to 4.1% and the NFP data reads 180,000, demand for Gold can quickly increase!

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Currently the price of Gold is trading lower during this morning’s session, but has not yet formed a lower low. If the price drops to a lower low, the trend indicates a larger retracement or a full correction back to $2,338.65. The smaller timeframes currently point to this scenario, but this will change if the price increases above $2,362.44.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd July 2024.

NASDAQ Eyes All-Time High as Employment Data Eases Investor Concerns.

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* The JOLTS Job Openings comes in slightly higher than expectations improving investor sentiment.
* The NASDAQ rises 0.88% after the release of the latest US JOLTS Job Openings.
* Federal Reserve chairman advises inflationary data shows sign of inflation “cooling”. Reuter’s SmartEconomics predicts a Consumer Price Index reading of 0.1% for June.
* Investors turn their attention to the latest employment data and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

USA100 – Employment Data Eases Concerns and Pushes The NASDAQ Close To An All-Time High!

The NASDAQ has risen 1.40% this week as market risk appetite improves, and institutions position themselves for the next earnings season. The NASDAQ has now formed a second higher high and a third higher low. For this reason, technical analysts are pointing towards a potential bullish trend, while economists also advise the NASDAQ is likely to perform well in the second half of the year.

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The bulls quickly entered the market during yesterday’s trading session due to the positive employment data. Analysts thought the JOLTS Job Openings data would fall to the lowest since COVID lockdowns, but the figure read 180,000 more vacancies. Investors bought the news as the release confirms that the employment sector has become more “balanced”, remaining strong but simultaneously not strong enough to significantly increase salaries and inflation.

Another positive factor is the comments from the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. Mr Jerome Powell, after some persistently high inflation reports at the start of 2024, said that the data over the past 2 months “do suggest we are getting back on a disinflationary path.” However, economists are also noting that oil prices have risen by 8.40% in June 2024. According to economists, if prices remain around $85 per barrel, inflation potentially can become stickier.

However, even if inflation does become stickier, investors will soon start to turn their attention to the upcoming earnings season. Earnings season will start on Friday 12th July, but will gain momentum on the 17th! When monitoring individual components for the NASDAQ, in Tuesday’s session, 75% of the stocks rose in value and 83% of the most influential stocks rose.

The price of the NASDAQ is currently witnessing buy signals with the price trading comfortably above the 75-bar EMA and the Volume Weighted Average Price. Oscillators are also indicating buyers are controlling the market, but technical analysts are closely monitoring to ensure momentum continues. Breakout levels can be seen at $20,036.03 and $20,045.64. The NASDAQ’s all-time high is at $20,128.31.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Gains Momentum, Investors Focus On Upcoming Economic Data!

The price of the EURUSD during the Asian Session trades significantly lower which is primarily being driven by the US Dollar. However, the EURUSD quickly gains bullish momentum as the European session starts. Simultaneously, the Euro is increasing in value against most currencies and is only struggling against the AUD. US Dollar has largely been driven by positive economic data, but investors also should note dovish comments from the Fed can apply pressure.

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The price of the US Dollar will mainly be influenced by three economic events. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the ISM Services PMI and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the data reads higher than expectations, the price potentially can rise further.

Currently the EURUSD is trading within a small retracement upwards. Therefore, short term traders will closely monitor when momentum is regained, and a breakout is formed. The closest breakout level currently can be seen at 1.07354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd July 2024.

A Hawkish ECB Advise No Cut for July! European Stocks Fall!

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* European stocks unable to hold onto gains and honour the recent resistance levels.
* German inflation declines back to 2.2% as inflation in June eases more than expectations.
* ECB President Lagarde indicates the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged this month to gather more inflation data.
* Oil prices at a 2-month high due to a rise in geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Caribbean Hurricane.

GER40 – A Hawkish ECB Pressures European Stocks!

The German DAX fell during the European session due to the strong price gap which measures 1.04%. As a result, the index still rose by 0.48% by the end of the US trading session. The index is being supported by two factors: The failure of France’s far-right party to win a majority, which increased risk sentiment, and German inflation which read lower than expectations.

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However, the DAX is also slightly under pressure from the ECB President’s comments. Mrs Lagarde said the central bank will pause and not lower rates for the time being. The ECB is looking to obtain 2 months of inflation data before determining whether the risk of inflation is subsiding. If not, further adjustments. This morning, Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB governing council, said the economy is underperforming but the ECB believe it will recover. Philip Lane advises the ECB believes the Eurozone’s inflation will remain at the “mid-twos”. A concern for inflation is the current rise in oil prices which currently is close to a 2-month high and continues to rise in today’s Asian session.

The data supports a further cut in rates, but comments from the ECB don’t correspond with the latest inflation reading. The hawkish comment from the ECB is known to have pressured the DAX, but technical analysis will be key as bullish price movement is still possible. Particularly as German inflation falls back to 2.2%. A key price driver for the day will be the Core CPI Flash Estimates at 09:00 GMT and President Lagarde’s speech at 13:30 GMT.

In terms of technical analysis and signals, the DAX opened on a bearish price gap and has declined a further 0.20%. However, price gaps are normally filled and can trade back into a correction. In addition to this, the price on the 2-hour chart continues to remain above the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. If the price declines below 18,267.31, sell trades can materialize, otherwise, the main signal on the 2-hour chart, remains a bullish trend with large retracements.

EURNZD – The NZD Continues To Be The Worst-Performing Currency!

The best performing currency continues to be the Euro as it was on Monday. The Asian session’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar. On the 2-hour chart, the exchange rate is witnessing strong signals indicating a bullish trend, as seen since June 24th. However, the price on smaller timeframes indicates the asset is about to form a retracement. Therefore, investors should note the volatility despite the clear bullish signals.

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At this point, traders can’t use the breakout level or Fibonacci entry points due to the head and shoulders pattern and the significantly higher price. The asset has risen in value for 5 consecutive days regardless of the latest German inflation reading. One of the key drivers for the Euro is the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. However, this can lose its importance if today’s inflation estimates read lower than expectations.

If the inflation estimates are lower than expectations and the Euro declines, a signal for a retracement will be triggered at 1.77083. However, a longer-term downward trend is not yet possible unless the exchange rate gains larger bearish momentum. Whereas, if the Eurozone inflation estimates read more than 2.5% and the EURNZD breaks the 1.77442 level, buy signals are again an option.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.