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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:57 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 20 - 24, 2021



EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.

 US retail sales statistics were much better than expected. Sales showed a 0.7% increase in August, although according to the forecast, should have decreased by 0.8%. The number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to decrease by 72K, fell by 187K.

Such strong statistics raised the likelihood that the Fed will announce the curtailment of $ 120 billion of the quantitative easing (QE) program to 55% at its next meeting on September 21-22.

As a result of the dollar emission, carried out by the FRS for the last year and a half, the US national debt has grown to 130% of GDP, and the budget deficit exceeds a trillion dollars. As a result, it is not just about winding down the fiscal and credit stimulus, but also a shift to a tight fiscal policy. The Democratic Party and President Biden's Administration have introduced a draft tax reform to the U.S. Congress, which includes a sharp increase in federal income taxes. If passed, the tax rate in such states as New York or California could exceed 60%. In addition, a three per cent wealth tax is proposed for the first time in US history. 

The stock market responded to all this news with active sales. The S&P500 index fell 4,550 to 4435, the Dow Jones dropped 35517 to 34510 in two weeks. The gold price also fell 4.5%.

As for Europe, it was gripped by the real panic associated with the record rise in gas prices, which at one point reached $970 per 1,000 cubic metres. (It was 2.8 times lower a year ago). In anticipation of the autumn-winter heating season, the necessary energy reserves are only 75% (according to other estimates, only 50%). Such energy shortages could not only drive up prices but also reduce production. And this is fraught with a new recession and will definitely not benefit the common European currency.

By far the most important event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21-22. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, first of all, investors are waiting for signals or even a concrete decision about the beginning of the QE curtailment. As we have written before, more members of the Fed's leadership are taking a hawkish stance and supporting a reduction in the asset purchase program as early as this year. And if the hawks win at this meeting, we can expect a sharp strengthening of the dollar, and a further fall in stock indices and gold prices.

At the moment, 60% of experts vote for the rise of the US currency and the decline of the EUR/USD pair, while 30%, on the contrary, believe that nothing  will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting and the pair will win back north. The remaining 10% of analysts abstain from forecasts.

The indicator readings on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored red and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among the trend indicators, 100% point to the south.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1665, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

In addition to the Fed meeting, events in the coming week include the release of German and Eurozone PMI statistics on Thursday September 23.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The British pound, although down against the dollar, is generally holding up better than the common European currency. As expected by most analysts (60%), the GBP/USD pair went north on Monday and tested the 1.3900 high the next day, helped by good statistics from the UK labor market. This was followed by a reversal, a gradual decline and the pair's finish at 1.3730. As a result, it failed to update the two-week low of 1.3725, although it was very keen to do so.

The GBP/USD pair hardly reacted to the above forecast inflation data in Britain (CPI rose 3.2% in August vs. 2.0% in July vs. 2.9% forecast). However, such indicators reinforce the hawks' position at the Bank of England. So far, the forces of "hawks" and "doves" are equal there. According to Bank Governor Andrew Bailey, four members supported raising the key interest rate and four opposed at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts believe that the likely rate hike in February 2022 will support the pound and further declines in the GBP/USD pair will be limited. If that expectation grows into confidence, the UK currency could move up strongly.

We will not only have an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, but also a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, September 23, from which investors also want to receive signals on the timing of tightening monetary policy. And here, in contrast to the EUR/USD forecast, most experts side with the pound. 65% of analysts vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair, and 35% for its further decline. But the technical indicators' readings are 100% in line with the previous pair.

Resistances are at levels 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3700-1.3725, 1.3665 and 1.3600.

USD/JPY: Zero Again

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The coming week can be safely called the week of the central banks. In addition to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, investors will learn the views of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan on the economic situation in their countries on Wednesday September 22, as well as decisions on interest rates of their national currencies. With a probability close to 100%, the yen rate will remain the same, at minus 0.1%. But BOJ leaders have a lot more to think about: they need to fill the economy's 22 trillion yen (approx. $200 billion) deficit.

However, the USD/JPY pair reacts to such figures and the news quite calmly. Unnecessary excitement is not needed in a quiet Japanese harbor.

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.85, it finished the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.95. At the same time, the experts' forecast can be considered to have come true: most of them (50%) sided with the bears last week and 35% took a neutral stance. Everything went exactly according to this scenario: at first the pair went down sharply, and then, having reached a strong medium-term support at 109.10, it failed to break it, turned around and went back.

The pair was supported by positive US retail sales statistics. In addition, according to a number of experts, the outflow of Japanese capital into foreign bonds did not allow it to go far down. Japanese investors hardly bought any bonds from other countries in 2021. But the sharp rise in US Treasuries yields pushed them to buy more than 1.76 billion yen worth of securities this Thursday. That has become a record since last November.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears once again, 35% with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral stance. As for the indicators on D1, there is a complete diversity among the oscillators after such week results, while the green ones have a convincing advantage for the trend indicators.

Support levels are unchanged: 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems already unrealizable) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.15, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Black to Slightly Greenish

El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. And the quotes of the flagship cryptocurrency fell by 18%  in a matter of hours: from $52,870 to $43,205. The market is slowly trying to recover after this "black" day. At the time of writing this review, the BTC/USD pair had risen to the $47,300-48,000 zone. Of course, it's not much, which is why the past week can only be described as “slightly greenish.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by only 2 points, from 46 to 48, and is in the central neutral zone. The total crypto market capitalization remained virtually unchanged, at $2.120 trillion compared to $2.100 trillion a week ago.

The news background looks “slightly greenish” too. The most interesting news is that Panama has decided to follow El Salvador's example. A draft law on cryptocurrencies was presented to the Congress of this country. Panama currently uses the US dollar as a means of payment. If the law is passed, it will also be possible to use BTC and ETH. Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

The law has not yet been passed, but analysts are already wondering how the market will react to its entry into force. Should we wait for another "black" day of the calendar, as in the case of El Salvador?

One more piece of news. Analytics software provider MicroStrategy additionally purchased 5,050 BTC at $48,099. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.

Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

Influencers continue to predict a great future for major cryptocurrencies. So, Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stoferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.

The head of Ark Invest also highlighted the potential of Ethereum, saying that her company will likely continue to adhere to a 60% Bitcoin and 40% Ethereum strategy.

In terms of shorter-term forecasts, crypto trading veteran Ton Vays believes that the BTC/USD pair will complete the current correction relatively soon, and then rise sharply to six-digit levels. Vays explained that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.

According to Ton Vays, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After that, it will sharply bounce off this support and rush upward. “The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:20 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 13 - 17, 2021



EUR/USD: Eurozone QE Recalibration

The ECB meeting on Thursday 09 September went off as expected with no surprises. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. The European regulator has proposed a “dovish” reduction in the monetary stimulus program (QE). More precisely, according to Christine Lagarde, the bank's governor, it is not even about “tapering” but “recalibrating” the program. And the decline in asset purchases in Q4 is just a reversal of the decision made in March to increase them. In doing so, the ECB remains flexible, and may change the pace of purchases early next year if necessary.

It is likely that the regulator does not want to take any sharp moves until its meeting in December, when it will have to present a clearer plan to wind down QE. In the meantime, it will monitor the development of the situation. The results of the parliamentary election in Germany, which will be held on September 26, will be of great importance. Especially since this will be the first election since 2005 in which the Christian Democratic Union will not be led by Angela Merkel.

 In addition to the “recalibration” decision, the ECB raised its 2021 forecast for Eurozone GDP from 4.6% to 5.0% and for inflation from 1.9% to 2.2%. At the same time, the bank expects consumer price growth to fall to 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. This suggests that its ultra soft monetary policy will last for a very long time. And there is no need to talk about raising interest rates earlier than the end of 2023 - early 2024.

Economic growth sides with the bulls on the EUR/USD pair, while the monetary policy sides with the bears. There have been no clear signals from the ECB, and they are unlikely to arrive until December. Therefore, the market will still be waiting for them from the US Fed to decide which currency to prefer.

The long life of the European QE program has been mentioned above. The Federal Reserve may begin to cut its QE already this year and complete it by the end of 2022. This view is held by the hawkish lobby in the leadership of the US Central Bank. FOMC member Michelle Bowman has even specifically stressed that disappointing employment statistics for August would not get the Fed out of the way.

This balance of strength plays on the dollar side and should send the EUR/USD pair south. At the moment, 50% of experts agree with this, supported by graphical analysis. The pair finished last week at 1.1810, and now it is expected to be supported at levels 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. 15% of analysts expect the pair to consolidate in the 1.1800 zone, while the remaining 35% are looking north. Resistance levels are 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 50% point north, 10% south, and the remaining 40% are neutral. Among trend indicators, 35% are colored green, 65% are colored red.

The US economic calendar next week looks quite busy, and all the important statistics will be focused on the country's consumer market. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Tuesday, September 14, retail sales on Thursday, September 16, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released the following day.

GBP/USD: Movement with Almost Zero Result

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Having drawn a parabola with a low of 1.3725, the GBP/USD pair returned on Friday September 10 to almost the same place it started on Monday (1.3865) and ended the five-day run at 1.3830. It never managed to break beyond the central part of channel 1.3700-1.4000, where it has been intermittently since February 2021.

If it continues to move north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at 1.3909, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (30% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 10% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

As for the oscillators on D1, 70% are colored green, 15% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, like a week ago, the greens win 9-1.

Events in the coming week include the release of unemployment data in the UK on Tuesday, September 14, and statistics on the country's consumer market on Wednesday, September 15.

USD/JPY: Another Zero Result Pair

Being a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time again, having started the five-day week at 109.70, it ended the week almost at the same place where it began, at the level of 109.85. Moreover, the trading range has become even narrower, keeping within 85 points: from 109.60 to 110.45. Those who are actively trading are hardly happy with such volatility. Although, on the other hand, it allows you to quite accurately place Stop Loss and Take Profit orders and taking into account the minimum spreads and leverage up to 1: 1000, you can make significant profits with the NordFX broker even in such a narrow corridor.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears, 15% - with the bulls, and 35% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, the red ones have 60% advantage among oscillators, the green ones have 10%, and those that have taken a neutral, grey position - 30%. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

Support levels are 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.00, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: September 07: Rainy Day

The past week on the crypto market can be reduced to one day, Tuesday September 07. A law came into force in El Salvador on that day recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of settlement on par with the dollar. The country's young president, Nayib Bukele,  twitted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes we will go down in history,” he wrote. Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. Bitcoin has been rallying since July 20 and has jumped above $52,000 since this announcement.

Roughly 20% of the country's GDP comes from remittances that Salvadorans working abroad send to their relatives. The huge commissions in USD that have to be paid are extremely unprofitable and enrich the US financial structures. This is what has been one of the main reasons for bitcoin adoption. However, for most Salvadorans, a third of whom do not even use the internet, digital assets still remain a mystery behind seven seals. According to surveys, about 70% of the population fear the innovations, and pensioners believe that the government wants to take away their USD pensions in this way. The result of these concerns and misunderstandings were protests and demonstrations that swept across the country.

The World Bank refused to support the initiative of Nayib Bukele, which jeopardizes the receipt of tranches from the IMF. According to analysts, El Salvador does not have specific laws to address the many nuances of bitcoin use, increasing the risks associated with money laundering and terrorist financing . And leading rating agencies such as Fitch believe El Salvador's insurance industry will be particularly hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.

September 7 clearly showed how unstable it is. In a matter of hours, bitcoin prices fell 18%, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.

Then the leading cryptocurrency managed to win back some of the losses, and it is trading in the range of $45,000-46,000 per coin at the time of writing the review, on Friday September 10.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted into the fear zone, dropping from 74 to 46 points. The total crypto market capitalization fell below the important psychological level of $2 trillion to $1.975 trillion by September 08, but then rose to $2.100 trillion by the end of the working week.

Despite what has happened, many experts are still positive about the prospects for both bitcoin and ethereum. For example, senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets enter a renewed second-half year bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted, adding that he sees “bitcoin's future as a digital reserve asset to complement the dollar.”

The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust also speaks about the significant growth potential of the BTC/USD pair, calling bitcoin a digital analogue of gold. “Gold capitalization is $11 trillion, bitcoin is only $900 billion, which is a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk to reward ratio is attractive," the Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood also believes that the cryptocurrency market is far from the end of the rally. There are no signs of a price bubble in the markets, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims". That being said, Cathy Wood thinks the next five to fifteen years will be very provocative, causing the quotes to draw S-shaped curves. And therefore, for the sector to mature, regulation is needed that will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

Analysts at the international banking group Standard Chartered have also given a positive assessment of the outlook for bitcoin and ethereum. They compared the first with currency, and the second with the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach that of the first cryptocurrency.

Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks associated with it are also higher,” the bank representatives said.

On average, 20% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will cross over $50,000 in the coming week, their number increases to 40% onthe monthly forecast, and 80% agree that it will happen before the New Year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:36 am

Forex Traders Association Recognizes NordFX Customer Support as Best Service of 2021



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What is the most important thing for a broker? Is it money? No, it isn't. Is it computers and software? It is not either. The most important thing is the clients, their trust, and their satisfaction with the level of services received. Therefore, the awards that the broker receives from traders' associations are of particular value. This is exactly the award from the Forex Traders Association, which has recognized NordFX Customer Support as the best in 2021.

Forex Traders Association (FTA) is a grassroots organization of 89 affiliates in America, Europe and Asia. FTA members represent individuals employed in the financial services industry across varying business models. FTA educates its members on market structure issues while representing their interests with legislators, regulators, and other industry associations. FTA events keep attendees informed on industry trends and provide unique networking opportunities, which contribute to career development and productivity. FTA is committed to promoting goodwill and fostering high standards of integrity in accord with its founding principle, dictum meum pactum, my word is my bond.

Since 2017, the members of this association have been evaluating various financial institutions in a wide variety of categories. And this year, 2021, NordFX has won in such an important category as Customer Support.

Customer Support can be called the face of the company, since it is this service that traders have to contact most often, addressing the most pressing issues related to opening an account, specifics of trading and investing, payments and partnerships. It is very important that this support is prompt and skilled. And in such a large international company as NordFX, it is also multilingual.

Over the years, traders from almost 190 countries have opened their accounts with NordFX, and it is very important that they communicate with the company representatives in a language they understand. You can currently ask your questions and get answers in 12 most popular and widespread languages. This can be done in a variety of ways: by phone, email, online chat, on forums and on social media, choosing the most convenient one. According to the assurances of the Customer Support experts, they will be glad not only to answer your questions, but also to hear criticisms and wishes. After all, it is so important not to rest on what you have achieved, but to constantly move forward.
avatar
Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:59 pm

NordFX Sums up August: British Pound Back at Peak Popularity



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NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last summer month of 2021.

The leader was once again a trader from India, account No.1584XXX, earning a profit of 326,278 USD. This impressive amount was earned through numerous trades on the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF) and Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD) pairs.

The representative of China (account No.1397XXX) moved from third to second place with a profit of 210,308 USD, also obtained through trading operations with the British currency (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs). Recall that their result was 179,327 USD in July.

This time the third step of the podium was taken by a NordFX client from Vietnam (account No.1416XXX) who earned 85,467 USD using XAU/USD, AUD/ JPY and... of course still the same pair GBP/USD as trading instruments.

The passive investment services:

- BangBigBossTop1 and EAs for Life signals remain among the leaders in CopyTrading for the second month in a row.

BangBigBossTop1 almost doubled its result over the past month, raising the signal yield from 398% to 729%. At the same time, the maximum drawdown remained the same at 55%. This failure occurred on the first day of summer, June 01, after which the yield curve is creeping upward. However, 55% is a quite serious drawdown, so the signal is still in the high-risk group.

The EAs for Life signal has shown a return of 1602% from November 2020 up to now. However, at the very start, on November 19, the maximum drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk. Interestingly, almost 70% of trades on this signal are all on the same GBP/USD pair.

- Those investors who prefer minimal or moderate risk may find the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA in the NordFX PAMM service, interesting. This manager has increased their capital by 37% at a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other low-risk offers in the PAMM-service as well. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 were 21% over five months with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 23,498 USD, was credited in August to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received 6,608 USD;
- and, finally, their colleague from the Middle East (account no. 1569XXX), who earned 3,688 USD in commissions, closes the top three.
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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 am

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 06 - 10, 2021



EUR/USD: Falling Dollar and Rising Risk Appetite

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The majority is not always right. Thus, only 30% of the experts voted for EUR/USD to grow to 1.1900 last week. But they were the ones who proved right. After the release of data from the US labour market on Friday 03 September, the pair soared to a height of 1.1908, and finished five days at 1.1880. The weakening of the US currency continues after Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish statements in Jackson Hole and amid uncertainty with the timing of the beginning to wind down the fiscal stimulation program (QE).

Fed management cites sustained improvement in the employment situation as a major condition for reducing stimulus. However, ADP data on changes in the number of US private sector employment released on Wednesday was significantly worse than expected, with 374K instead of the projected 613K. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in August outside the agricultural sector (NFP) added pessimism: the real figure was 3.2 times lower than the forecast (235K instead of 750K). And this despite the fact that the NFP was 1053K in July. All this suggests strongly that the pace of recovery in the US economy is falling, and it is too early to talk of the start of QE reduction and, even more so, of an interest rate rise on the dollar.

As a result, the DXY dollar index (the ratio of USD to a basket of six major foreign currencies) has dropped from 93.63 to 92.07 since August 20, while risk sentiment in the market, on the contrary, has increased. The S&P500 stock index continues to update historic highs, and its chart resembles a north-easterly straight now. It is very similar to the one drawn by the martingale-based expert advisor until... a collapse occurs. A number of experts predict the fate of a bursting bubble in the future for the stock market as well.

As for the EUR/USD pair's future, only 35% of the experts surveyed vote for its continued growth, 20% vote for the pair's fall. The remaining 45% have taken a neutral position in anticipation of clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve regarding the start of QE curtailment.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 85% point north, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 75% are directed upward (note that there were only 20% of those a week earlier). Support levels are 1.1845, 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. Resistance levels are 1.1910, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

As for the events of the coming week, the release on September 7 of the data on GDP of the Eurozone for Q2 should be noted. The forecast here is disappointing: it is expected to fall 0.6% compared to a 2.0% increase in the previous period. The ECB's interest rate decision will be known on Thursday September 09, but it is very likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, a subsequent press conference by the European regulator's leadership will be of much greater interest. Finally, Germany's HICP, the Consumer Price Index, which estimates the inflation rate of the country that is the locomotive of the European economy, will be unveiled on Friday, September 10.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

We called this part of the review “Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes” last time and we left the title unchanged this week. Because nothing that would initiate an independent movement of the GBP/USD pair has happened. Just like the European currency, and for the same reasons, the British one has been growing against the dollar since August 20. The two-week high was reached on September 03 at 1.3890, and the last chord of the trading session sounded at 1.3865.

The pair is currently in the central part of the 1.3800-1.4000 channel, where it appears periodically since February 2021. If it goes north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at the level of 1.3960, then 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (20% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 20% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are colored green, 20% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, greens win with a score of 9:1.

As we know, the main indicators of economic recovery and the signal for the start of contraction of monetary stimulus programs are two factors: labour market health and inflation. That is why it is worth paying attention this week to the hearing of the UK Inflation Report, which will take place on Friday September 10.

USD/JPY: Most Unflappable Pair

As a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.80, it first dropped by 20 points, then rose by 80, then dropped again and ended the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.70.

Even the statement of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga about his intention to resign could not influence the yen rate. His popularity was hit by the Tokyo Olympics this summer. Many considered their hosting not a celebration of sport but a fueling of another wave of coronovirus, leaving COVID-19 incidence in the country now three times higher than during the previous waves.

A number of experts consider the departure of Yoshihide Suga a harbinger of possible changes in the economic policy of the Japanese government, in connection with which the Nikkei index rose by 2%, but the yen rate decided not to react to this, showing a truly icy calm.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 35% of them side with the bulls, 45% - with the bears, and 20% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, here it is still impossible to give priority to any of the directions.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 109.85, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Amid the continued weakening of the dollar and rising risk appetite, the BTC/USD pair is trying to gain a foothold above the important psychological level of $50,000 for the second week. It broke through this resistance for the third time and reached $51.085 at the time of this writing, on Friday September 03.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added just 1 point for the week, rising from 71 to 74. But the total crypto market capitalization has grown from $2.021 trillion to $2.275 trillion. And the core cryptocurrency accounts for only about $58bn: bitcoin's dominance continues to decline. It fell from 43.77% to 41.41% in seven days, while ethereum is improving its position step by step. So, if the share of ETH was 18.07% of the total market capitalization on August 28, it was already 20.45% on September 03.

Many analysts and influencers continue to sing difirambs to ethereum, preening that it will push bitcoin back to the second line at some point. A week ago, we cited the opinion of the creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, who expects the price of ETH to reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of the coin will rise to $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all major technology companies in the world.

Analyst Aaron Arnold agrees with Buterin. In his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) he named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. The expert considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 174,000 coins worth more than $565 million have been burned since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.

The analyst named the decrease in net inflation in Ethereum as the second growth factor. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.

Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

It should be noted that the dynamics of recent months confirms the rosy forecasts for ethereum in full. If BTC has risen in price by about 72% since July 20, ETH has grown by 130%. In the last week alone, this altcoin is up 22%, while bitcoin is up just 2.5%. The advantage of ethereum is also obvious at a distance of 12 months: plus 820% for ETH, plus 350% for BTC.

If Vitalik Buterin predicts the growth of his brainchild to $30,000, you can still hear the figure of $100,000 in the forecasts for the BTC/USD pair. It is exactly the height that British analyst and Northstar & Badcharts co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes the pair will reach before the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage for the cryptocurrency will be completed.

Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break the $100,000 level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.

Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

Another growth driver, besides halving, is the US Federal Reserve's full-fledged printing press. Moreover, both corporations and individuals get substantial chunks of this dollar "pie". CNBC revealed that 11 per cent of young US residents have invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the COVID-19 pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. And 60 per cent of them are set to hold the asset long-term.

On the other hand, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and the "golden beetle" Peter Schiff, said that he considers those who hold and do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots". Investor John Paulson expressed a similar opinion. This billionaire called cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.

And in conclusion, as usual, our not very serious section of life hacks with another piece of advice on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that you just need to purchase an electric car of the IM brand for this. Backed by the Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for car owners to earn digital currency per mileage traveled.

Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.

The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Aug 29, 2021 5:38 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 30 - September 03, 2021



EUR/USD: Three Hawks and a Dove in Jackson Hole

The return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.1700-1.1900 was predicted by 35% of experts supported by 25% of oscillators that showed it was oversold. After renewing the annual low of 1.1665 on August 20, the pair did go into a correction, reaching 1.1775 on Thursday.

The week's economic statistics proved weak enough for both the US and Eurozone, and all market attention has been shifted to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, running from 26 to 28 August. There were speeches by three representatives of the US Fed leadership, which turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected.

So the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard said that the asset purchase program is doing the US economy more harm than good at the moment by inflating another soap bubble in the real estate market. According to Esther George, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the current outbreak of the pandemic caused by the Delta strain will not have a significant impact on the economic situation in the country, and it would be better if the process of winding down QE starts earlier than later.

Robert Kaplan from Dallas joined his fellow hawks. Thus, the overall sentiment of these three high Federal Reserve officials can be reduced to the desire to start reducing asset purchases as early as the first and early second quarter of 2022, in the amount of $15 billion per month. Such a pace will allow the US central bank to raise its interest rate by the end of next year.

Fed chief Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole symposium at the very end of the working week, on the evening of Friday August 27. Some investors hoped that his position would be significantly softer than that of the Bullard-George-Kaplan trio. Otherwise, it could have dealt a major blow to the stock market, knocking down major indices including the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. The bulls on the DXY dollar index, on the contrary, would be fazed by Jerome Powell's hawkish speeches. And although the consensus is gradually shifting to the fact that the regulator will announce the start of reducing monetary stimulus in November and will start implementing its plans in December-January, there was no need to wait for exact dates from the head of the Federal Reserve. That's exactly what happened: the high official said discussions about timing were still under way, that the issue would depend on economic and health risks, and that the central bank would continue to take a patient approach to their policies. The dollar weakened sharply after these words, and stock indices, on the contrary, updated historical highs once again. 

Experts and investors have yet to analyze the likelihood of monetary restriction beginning in a period or another. So far, after some hesitation following Mr Powell's vaguely dovish position, the EUR/USD pair flew north, recorded a local high at 1.1802 and ended the five-day level at 1.1795.

Talking about the future, only 30% of the experts surveyed voted for the further growth of the pair, with the next targets of 1.1830 and 1.1900. The remaining 70% of analysts have taken the opposite view. They believe that the pair should retest the 1.1665 level. The nearest support is 1.1750 and 1.1700. The position of the indicators in total can be described as neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% indicate a rise in the pair, 25% indicate a fall, and another 25% are colored neutral gray. As for trend indicators, 80% look south and 20% look north.

The coming week's events include the release of German consumer market statistics on August 30 and September 01. Similar statistics for the Eurozone will be released on August 31 and September 03. As for the US, the ADP report on the employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the country will be published on September 1. And on the first Friday of the month, September 03, we will traditionally learn the most important indicators from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Overall, GBP/USD dynamics was reminiscent of the previous pair's movements. After reaching a low of 1.3600 on August 20, a rebound followed as a result of which the British pound rose to the mark 1.3767 on Thursday, August 26, as predicted by most (70%) experts.

Then came the meeting of American bankers in Jackson Hole and the hawkish speech of the aforementioned leaders of the Federal Reserve Bank, which led to some strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the pair to 1.3680. And then, thanks to the Fed chairman, the American currency began to fall in price again. As already mentioned, the market's hopes that Powell would announce a specific and early date for winding down the asset repurchase program did not come to fruition. As a result, the pair went up sharply, reaching a height of 1.3780, and completed the trading session at 1.3760.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of analysts (75%) expect the US currency to strengthen and a new storm of the 1.3600 level. If successful, the next target will be the horizon 1.3480. The nearest support is the zone 1.3680-1.3700.

The remaining 25% believe that the growth opportunities for the British currency have not yet been exhausted. The nearest resistance is at 1.3780, the nearest target is the return of the GBP/USD pair to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

As for the oscillators on D1, 40% look south, 50% look east, and only 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds.

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

Amid market unrest caused by statements from Fed executives, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, is successfully countering any storms. The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.80 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.82, and the range of fluctuations narrows even more: from 109.40 at the low to 110.25 at the high.

This behavior of the pair leads experts to give very versatile predictions. 40% of them have sided with bulls this time, 30% side with bears, and 30% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, one cannot give priority to any of the directions here either.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: at the Crossroads

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We put a question in the heading of the previous review. "The Lull Before the Storm?" - that is what it was. We also noted that powerful drivers will be needed to push bitcoin quotes above the current levels. But there were no drivers, so the storm hasn't happened yet. Although the news background is generally quite positive.

Thus, one of the digital market locomotives, MicroStrategy, purchased an additional 3,907 BTC on August 24 for about $177 million. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin. And this suggests that the company does not expect any serious drawdown of the BTC/USD pair, and, on the contrary, expects its further growth.

In total, this analytics software provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet worth over $5 billion.

American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities.

Bloomberg experts suggest that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve not one, but several applications for the launch of ETFs on bitcoin futures. The goal is to maintain competition and not give anyone any advantage. The SEC may make its decision by the end of October. And the first European bitcoin futures could be launched as early as mid-September. This was announced by Europe's largest derivatives exchange Eurex.

Having reached the medium-term target, the BTC/USD pair is "stuck" in the $47,000-50,000 range. This zone is a kind of intersection of two roads: horizontal and ascending channels. And the mood of the market for the coming weeks depends on whether the pair will be able to break through the support at the level of $47,000.

In terms of medium- to long-term forecasts, they remain positive overall. This was shown by a survey conducted by Elwood Asset Management with 55 out of approximately 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds. According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000. 

63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

The fact that the price of BTC can show impressive growth, reaching $100,000, was admitted even by the constant critic of bitcoin, the president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff. 

This "golden beetle" is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. However, this time, he did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade. At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has also repeatedly predicted BTC's growth to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.

The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.

At the same time, McGlone considers the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But, according to the analyst, the price will not fall below $2,000 either, rather the rate will exceed $4,000.

The creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, is much more optimistic about the future of ethereum. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world. In the meantime, this figure is about $380 billion.

As far as the total capitalization of the crypto market is concerned, as we suggested in the previous review, there is now a struggle in the area of the psychologically important $2.0tn level. Starting at $2.043 trillion, this figure rose to $2.162 trillion on August 23, it fell to $1.973 trillion by August 27, and it rose again to $2.021 trillion by Friday evening.

Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index froze practically, having risen by only 1 point in a week, from 70 to 71.

And in conclusion, our not-so-serious life hacks column has another tip on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that for this you just need to move to live in Cool Valley in Missouri (USA). The mayor of this town decided to seriously raise the welfare of its 1,500 residents, and to that end promised to transfer $500 to $1,000 to each of them in BTC. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:42 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 23 - 27, 2021



EUR/USD: Fed Needs Strong Dollar, ECB Needs Weak Euro

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A previous review named the publication of the US Fed's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 18 August as the most important event of the past week.  This document was supposed to clarify the situation regarding the timing of the curtailment of the monetary stimulus (QE) program. Of course, 100% clarity never came out. Some Fed executives still believe that it is necessary to start winding down stimulus at the earliest in spring 2022. However, there is also the opposite view that a parting with QE should happen before the end of this year. And it was this view that led to another decline in investor risk appetites and a further strengthening of the dollar.

Stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, have been falling since the start of the week, with the release of the minutes pushing them further down. And while a certain wave of purchases could be observed after each pullback, the trend still remains downward: the market gets rid of stocks, preferring dollars. The DXY index, which tracks the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, heaped nearly 1.3 per cent over the week, rising from 92.500 to 93.700.

In addition to anticipating the early start of QE, the new strain of Delta coronavirus is also pressing the stock and commodity markets. In anticipation of new lockdowns, investors fear for the fate of both the global economy as a whole and its locomotive, the US economy. According to the Ministry of Health, the number of new infections totaled more than 268,000 in one day on August 17 alone, which compares with the peaks of the beginning of the year.

That being said, the US job market feels pretty good at all. At least for now. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 377 thousand to 348 thousand for the week, which is much better than the forecast of 363 thousand. This has been the best indicator since the beginning and has benefited the dollar.

Another source of support for the USD was the widening spreads between the yields of US and foreign bonds. Foreign investors support and will support the demand for dollars in order to then purchase American Treasuries.

Because of the above factors, the result of the past week was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by 130 points. having started Monday from 1.1795, EUR/USD groped the local bottom at 1.1665 by the end of the week and finished five days in 1.1700.

A strong dollar is needed by the Fed to reassure investors about unmanageable inflation. Therefore, new, clearer signals regarding the folding of QE can be expected from this regulator. But the ECB is not at all opposed to further weakening of the euro, which has been repeatedly stated by the head of the bank Christine Lagarde. So, according to many experts, the downtrend of the EUR/USD pair will continue in the medium term.

The pair has now fallen below the low of April 01, 2021, 1.1704, and if this breakdown is confirmed, the next targets will be the lows of last autumn in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If it is able to overcome this barrier, it will open a road to targets in zones 1.1450 and 1.1240. A 300-400 point path is likely to take a month or two to overcome. But if the Fed announces the completion of QE, the pair will fly that distance in a matter of days. This development is supported by 65% of experts.

The remaining 35% believe that the dollar may take a pause in its growth and the EUR/USD pair will return to the 1.1700-1.1900 range for a while. The nearest targets here are 1.1750 and 1.1830.

In terms of technical analysis, D1 has 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators painted red. The remaining 25% oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold.

In the coming week, we should note the publication of Markit's German and Eurozone PMI on Monday 23 August, as well as of capital orders goods and durable goods in the US on Wednesday 25 August. On Thursday, we'll find out preliminary US GDP figures. In addition, the annual symposium will be held in Jackson Hole from August 26 to 28, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.

GBP/USD: Escape from the Pound

If the pound could still struggle with the dollar two weeks ago, it surrendered all its positions last week. Investors rushed to secure assets due to the rapid spread of the Delta strain and its impact on the global economic recovery. Plus, the possible winding down of QE in the USA. And then the Gfk UK Consumer Confidence Index fell from minus 7 in July to minus 8 in August, the worst performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, GBP/USD falls almost 270 points to mid-term support in the 1.3600 zone and finishes at 1.3622.

We would like to remind that in the previous forecast, the specialists of the German Commerzbank designated the July 20 low at 1.3571 as the target for the pair. Given the slight backlash, this forecast proved correct. And now they say that in its fall, the pair may test the 200-week moving average at 1.3146. The strongest support along the way is located in the 1.3480 and 1.3200 zones.

South is also indicated by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1. However, only 30 per cent of experts agree with them among analysts. The remaining 70% believe that the British currency's potential for resistance is far from exhausted, especially if the Bank of England takes a more active position. 35% of oscillators in the oversold zone talk of a possible reversal to the north as well. The nearest resistance is at 1.3725, the nearest target is the return of GBP/USD to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

Of the most significant macro statistics to be released next week, the publication of Markit's UK services business index on Monday 23 August can be singled out.

USD/JPY: Yen Is Not Afraid of Dollar

Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.

 This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.

 Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00. 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?

Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.

The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.

This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.

Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.

Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.

According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.

Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.

The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.

Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.

Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.

As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:05 pm

NordFX Broker Becomes the Most Transparent Broker-2021



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In mid-August, NordFX brokerage company received its first award this year. Experts from one of the major financial portals and business award organizations, World Forex Award (WFA), named NordFX the Most Transparent Broker-2021.

This award is important primarily because transparency is one of the most important factors, the same as financial performance, technology, risk, etc., that allows traders, investors and partners to assess the reliability of a company.

Before reaching their verdict, WFA experts assessed whether the information the company provides to stakeholders is open, complete and timely, and expressed in an understandable form required for objective decisions. An important role was played by the fact that NordFX had practically no claims from the state bodies of its regulation for 13 years of its work in the financial markets, and controversial issues that sometimes arose with clients were resolved openly and, if necessary, with the involvement of independent experts.

It should be noted that NordFX business policy focuses on all three main areas of transparency: openness, clarity and accuracy of information. This applies both to the documents governing client and partner relationships, as well as the description of trading terms, including speed of order execution, spreads and commissions during transactions and when depositing/withdrawing funds.

Promotions run by NordFX are no exception. A fresh example here is the super lottery, where 100,000 USD is drawn among traders this year. Any client of the company can take part in this lottery, who can check the correctness of the accrual of lottery tickets in real time on the company's website, and the draws are held online, making it possible for anyone to follow the prize draw on the Internet.
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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:33 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 16 - 20, 2021



EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The forecast given last week has come true 100%. Recall that 70% of experts suggested that EUR/USD will test the late March low at 1.1700 once again. And it did drop to the level of 1.1705 as early as Wednesday. However, the drivers for further strengthening the US currency were not enough, and the pair was moving in reverse, north, for the second half of the week.

It reached weekly highs on Friday, August 13, climbing to the 1.1800 horizon, and completed the five-day period at 1.1795, the best gain in recent months. This happened during the American session due to a sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, the value of which dropped to the December 2011 low: from 80.2 to 70.2 points. This indicator is based on a survey of consumers and measures their confidence in US economic growth. Simply put, it evaluates their willingness to spend money. Other indicators presented by the university also fell short of expectations.

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stressed that the timing of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program and raising interest rates directly depends on the acceleration of inflation and a full recovery of the US labor market. But it turns out that Americans' desire to shop is on the wane, which does nothing to boost inflation and meet the Fed's goals.

On the back of disappointing data from the University of Michigan, the DXY dollar index dipped to 92.50, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 have once again renewed their highs, reaching 35612.25 and 4467.13, respectively.

Interestingly, US stock indices have been growing recently both when economic releases delight investors and when they upset them. This is apparently due to the pumping of the market with a huge amount of dollars under the QE program. Investors simply have nowhere to put it, especially since the Fed's interest rates are extremely low now. So you have to invest it in stocks.

But the voices of the “hawks” that it is time to end with QE can be heard more and more clearly inside the US Central Bank itself. According to 28 out of 43 Reuters experts, the Fed will announce the start of the program's curtailment in September. More than a third of respondents believe that this will happen in November-December. The decline in asset purchases, according to 60% of the experts surveyed, will start in Q1 2022, almost everyone else believes it will happen even earlier, in Q4 this year.

Starting to wind down fiscal stimulus is extremely likely to lead to outflows from the stock market and strengthen the dollar. But so far, there is no clarity on the timing, and there is no certainty in the opinions of experts. Assessing the prospects of the EUR/USD pair for the near future, 30% vote for its growth and 35% for the fall and for the sideways trend along the horizon of 1.1800.

There is no unity among indicators either. It is clear that after the jump on Friday the 13th, most of them, including graphical analysis, are colored green. Although here, too, 25% of oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. As for D1, it is simply impossible to give preference to any of the colors: one third of the oscillators are colored green, one third - red, and one third - neutral gray. As for the trend indicators on D1, the majority (65%) indicate the continuation of the medium-term downtrend, and the pair's desire to test the support of 1.1705 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If the bulls win, then the resistances are located at levels 1.1840, 1.1910 and 1.1975.

Of the events of the coming week, which may affect trends, it is worth noting the release of Eurozone GDP data for Q2, as well as US retail sales and inflation data. These releases will be out on Tuesday August 17. And the next day, August 18, the minutes of the FOMC meeting of the US Fed will be published, from which experts will try to understand whose side, pigeons or hawks, is advantageous now relative to the timing of the QE folding.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

As expected, data released on Thursday August 12 showed strong UK GDP growth in Q2 2021, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. However, this coincided with the forecast completely and therefore did not make a special impression on the market. But the University of Michigan data caused GBP/USD to soar 85 points, from 1.3790 to 1.3875, and end the trading session almost where it started, in 1.3868.

Prior to the release of this data, many experts expected the pair's downtrend which started in late July to continue. Commerzbank specialists called the June 21 low of 1.3786 as initial support, after breaking which the pair will consistently drop to the lows on July 02 (1.3735) and April 12 (1.3669). The target is the July 20 low at 1.3571.

A similar scenario was suggested by the analysts of the Singapore-based OCBC Bank, who named the levels 1.3779 and 1.3732. The economists of the French Societe Generale agreed with this, believing that the combination of a strong dollar and a weak pound would lead the GBP/USD pair to fall below 1.3750.

However, none of that has happened yet. And it is appropriate to cite here the opinion of Credit Suisse experts, according to which the pair has completed the formation of a bullish reversal pattern. But to continue its growth, it needs to rise above 1.3895. Then the next targets will be closing above 55-DMA at 1.3920, and then zone 1.3978-1.4010.

As for the readings of the indicators, they are similar to the readings of their "colleagues" for the previous pair, EUR/USD. Although there is some advantage of greens on H4, it is not possible to be guided by their signals now.

Among the important macro statistics for the pound next week is the release of UK labour market data on Tuesday August 17 and on the consumer market on Wednesday August 18. However, even if both turn out to be positive, it is still not worth waiting for clear signals from the Bank of England about the timing of its QE curtailment.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

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Last week we named our forecast for this pair “North Following Treasury Yields”. In the current one, only one word has been replaced, "North" for "South".

The previous title has fully justified itself. As anticipated, USD/JPY grew in the first half of the week, reaching the height of 110.80 on August 11. However, then “something went wrong”, the pair turned around and flew down, putting the last chord at 109.55. The first reason is repeated many times above. An additional advantage to the Japanese safe-haven currency was given by the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This indicator dropped sharply by 4.5%, reaching a weekly low of 1.3%.

The USD/JPY pair finished five days substantially below the key 110.00 horizon, and experts say this does not bode well for the dollar. (Of course it's about the near term). Thus, 45% of analysts vote for the continuation of the downtrend, another 45% prefer a sideways trend, and only 10% believe that the bulls will be able to turn the pair northward again.

As for the trend indicators, there is also a clear advantage on the side of the reds: 100% side with them on H4, 75% on D1. There is not a single one among the oscillators on H4 that would point to the north. True, 25% have taken a neutral position, and out of 75% of those looking down, almost half are in the oversold zone. On D1, 65% point south, 20% point west, and 15% point north.

Support levels are 109.35, 109.05 and 108.70, the target of the bears is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the zone 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

Among the week's events would be the release of preliminary Japanese GDP figures for Q2 2021 (forecast: growth from minus 1.0% to plus 0.2%). However, as the practice shows, this will have little effect on the pair's behavior. The main focus should be on US macro statistics. And it could quite break the current trend and re-send the pair north. 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

“Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of the crypto winter, the crypto spring came straight away,” - this is how we described the situation in this market in the previous review. The past week did not spoil the spring mood. Bitcoin has heaped by about 12% in seven days and is approaching $47,800 at the time of writing. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased over the same period from $1.67 trillion to $1.957 trillion, and the day it will once again cross the bar of $2.0 tn seems not far off. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally moved from the central zone to the green part of the scale, rising from 52 points to 70. At the same time, it is still far away to a state of severe overbought, which foreshadow a strong correction. And it gives investors hope that the day will come when the BTC/USD pair updates its historic high.

In addition to optimists, of course there are enough pessimists in the market. Including those among recognized professionals. For example,  Bridgewater Associates billionaire founder Ray Dalio does not rule out bitcoin growth, but still prefers gold. Dalio has stated that he holds a "very small volume" of bitcoin. “If you put a gun to my head and let me choose only one of the two, I’ll choose gold,” he said.

Reputable bankers like Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and fellow JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon continue to criticize cryptocurrency. But at the same time, they and many other banks continue to actively implement services related to digital assets. And analysts at JPMorgan predicted BTC's rise to $146,000 earlier in the year.

Disputes about where it is better to invest money, in precious metal or in cryptocurrencies, do not subside. At the same time, simple calculations show the obvious superiority of bitcoin. The price of gold has fallen by about 5.5% over the past 10 years. As for the core cryptocurrency, it grew 571,000% during the same time. That is, having invested only two dollars in bitcoin then, you would be a millionaire by now. In the last five years alone, gold has fallen in price against bitcoin by 25 times.

The numbers speak for themselves. But the reliability of investments cannot be forgotten. Between 2010 and 2015, the price of gold experienced a maximum drop, losing approximately 40% in five years. But if you look at the April-May chart this year, you'll see that bitcoin lost the same 40% in just four weeks!

Investing in cryptocurrencies requires significantly stronger nerves and a safety margin. During the rapid collapse of the crypto market, some get rid of their coins, succumbing to panic. Others, on the other hand, see such corrections as an excellent buying opportunity.

According to Tom Lee, head of research firm Fundstrat, the “golden rule” for crypto investors is to buy bitcoin every time the quotes cross the 200-day moving average (MA 200) from the bottom up. Starting in 2017, in three out of five cases, the closing of the daily candle above this line was the beginning of a gradual increase in trading volumes and the development of long-term upward trends that lasted from 4 months to a year. Two failures, according to Tom Lee, do not in any way cancel his "golden rule", since in these cases the BTC rate managed to rise enough for traders to protect their positions from any loss.

Tom Lee also reiterated his prediction that he sees bitcoin in the region of $100,000-120,000 in 2022. Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone pointed to the same level of $100,000 in his latest report. “Bitcoin seems to have found support around the $30,000 mark, just as it did at $4,000 in early 2019. We see parallels with those events and, apparently, bitcoin may well reach $100,000," he wrote.

More modest predictions were given by three other crypto experts. Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willie Wu believes that, based on fundamentals, the fair price for bitcoin is $53,200. However, he warned that fundamental factors do not allow forecasting for a short period, but with sufficient time, they will fully justify themselves.

Another analyst, Will Clemente, agreed with Wu's opinion and noted that, based on the bitcoin liquidity data from the Glassnode analytical platform, he predicted its growth to about $53,000 back on July 31. The well-known crypto strategist with the nickname Crypto Dog confirmed these predictions. In his opinion, "bitcoin will get to $50,000 very soon."

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Aug 08, 2021 5:19 pm

Forex Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 09 - 13, 2021



EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The EUR/USD pair drew another wave of sine waves on the chart: it fell by the same amount in the first week of August as it rose in the last week of July.

Statistics from the US labor market set the tone for the week's trends. In anticipation, the pair was moving in the sideways range of 1.1850-1.1900 throughout the first half of the week. The bears tried to break through its lower border on Wednesday, August 04. However, amid disappointing private sector employment statistics from the ADP, the pair reversed and, conversely, aimed at a breakout of the channel's upper border. But this attempt, now by the bulls, failed. The reason was the record growth of business activity in the US services sector from ISM: it rose to 64.1 in July.

After pulling back to support 1.1830, the pair froze in anticipation of the release of non-farm payrolls (NFP), data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector. This data is traditionally published every first Friday of the month. And the report released on August 6 did not disappoint investors. Moreover, some analysts called it "stellar" as it showed employment growth of 943 thousand against the forecast of 870 thousand. In addition, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.4%.
The market responded immediately with a surge in the US currency, as according to Fed statements, the timing of the monetary stimulus program (QE) and interest rate hikes are directly dependent from a crackdown on inflation and a full-fledged recovery in the US labor market.

After the release of the report, the yield on 10-year US bonds went up in the direction of 1.30%, which supported the rally in the dollar. The DXY rose 0.60% to 92.80, while EUR/USD plunged to 1.1755. The last chord of the week sounded very close, at the level of 1.1760.

Impressive labor market data allowed President Joe Biden to say his approach to economics is working. True, the White House host urged not to relax and stated that there was still a lot of hard work to do. Moreover, the country has to extinguish a new wave of coronavirus associated with the Delta strain. The president believes that the number of new cases of Covid will initially rise, but then decline, thanks to the current scale of vaccinations. And therefore, the US economy will not suffer as much damage as it did before.

Biden's words also went into the piggy bank of those waiting for the Fed's policy tightening soon. For example, analysts at Canadian investment bank TD Securities forecast that the dollar will perform better against currencies whose national central banks retain a dovish mood.

The overall picture for the pair looks bearish, something 70% of experts agree on. They believe that the EUR/USD pair intends to test the end-March low of 1.1700 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. This forecast is supported by 100% of trend indicators on both H4 and D1. But the oscillators note the weakening of the bearish onslaught. 10% of them have taken a neutral position on H4, and 15% are giving signals that the pair is oversold. There are even more of them on D1, 35%, which indicates a possible quick correction to the north. The remaining 30% of the experts are also expecting it. Moreover, in their opinion, the pair may not just limit itself to correction, but return first to the channel 1.1850-1.1900, and then rise to 1.2000. Although, of course, this is not a matter of the next few days.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, here we can note the release of data on the consumer market in Germany and the United States on Wednesday, August 11. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will also be released at the end of the five-day period, on Friday, August 13. It is predicted that it may show a slight increase, which will slightly strengthen the US currency.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

The Bank of England held a meeting on Thursday August 05, which, as expected, offered no surprises. Even with the good pace of recovery from the pandemic and rising inflation, all basic monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. The regulator kept the interest rate at a historically low level of 0.1%, and the quantitative easing (QE) program at ?895 billion.

The GBP/USD pair was never able to break the record of 30 July and was held in 1.3870-1.3935 for the whole week. An attempt made, in parallel with the euro, to break through its upper border on August 4, ended in nothing. As a result of the week's session, thanks to strong US statistics, the pair returned to the bottom of the channel, where it placed the final point at 1.3875.

The main interest for investors was not the predictable decision of the Bank of England, but the subsequent comments of its management regarding the future monetary policy. As mentioned above, the country's economy is confidently moving along the path of recovery. According to the data released earlier, inflation in June rose to 2.5%, exceeding the target level of 2%. The government is managing to cope with the next wave of COVID-19, so no new restrictions or lockdowns are yet to be seen. And although the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of England Benjamin Broadbent uttered a mysteriously ornate phrase that “moderate (!) tightening is likely (!), maybe (!) will be needed”, it did not impress investors. Especially as Broadbent said inflation in the country will rise 4% in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.

Therefore, according to 75% of experts, any signal about a possible transition from QE to a tighter policy, will be enough to lift the GBP/USD pair to 1.4000. 60% of oscillators agree with this position, but only 40% of trend indicators on D1. There is even greater discord in the readings of the indicators on H4. Graphical analysis on this timeframe first draws a fall of the pair to the 1.3800 horizon, and then a return to the highs of the end of July in the 1.3980 zone. It is clear that the support/resistance levels along the way will be the 1.3870-1.3935 channel boundaries.

As for the events of the coming week, we can single out the publication of preliminary data on UK GDP for tQ2 2021 on Thursday August 12. This figure is projected to show a very significant increase, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. And if the forecast is met, it will give the pound strong support, thus becoming a signal to the possible start of the QE program cuts.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

Starting on Wednesday August 04, the yen surrendered one frontier of defense after another, losing 150 points. The USD/JPY pair jumped from 108.71 to 110.21 in just three days. And, of course, it's all again to blame the same growing US labor market, pulling the yield of American treasuries. As mentioned above, this indicator approached 1.30%, which hit the Japanese currency hard.

Most experts (55%) expect the pair to return to support at 109.00. However, according to 45% of analysts, the pair has not yet exhausted its upside potential, especially if the yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to rise. This forecast is actively supported by 100% of trend indicators on both timeframes, 65% of oscillators on H4 and 50% on D1. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts that the pair will finally be able to reach the coveted 112.00 level. The resistances on the way to this target are 110.65, 111.10 and 111.65. 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

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The digital currency market is optimistic. Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of a crypto winter, a crypto spring has immediately arrived. Indeed, over the past two weeks, a lot of green leaves have appeared on the "tree" of bitcoin quotes, of which there are much more than yellow-red dull autumn ones.

Bouncing off the low of $29,300 on July 20, the BTC/USD pair added about 40% and is trading in the $41,000-42,500 zone at the time of writing the forecast. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by the same 40% over this period: from $1.19 trillion to $1.67 trillion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has finally moved from the Extreme Fear zone to the center of the scale, rising from 10 points to 52.

In addition to the quotes, major influencers statements and macro statistics support the market optimism. Recall that it was these factors that served as the main drivers of the bitcoin rally last fall.

For example, MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that bitcoin has “the greatest growth potential and the lowest risk” and could therefore become “the property of the future” which will be possessed by everyone from small investors to big tech companies and governments. We see a future in which digital gold will become the basis of technological innovation in Apple, Amazon and Facebook and will take place on the balance sheets of corporations, cities, states and countries," the billionaire explained.

Analysts at one of the largest U.S. financial institutions, Bank of America, confirmed Saylor indirectly. They believe that the recognition of bitcoin as an official means of payment in El Salvador can give this country a number of serious advantages. This could potentially reduce the cost of remittances from abroad, which account for almost a quarter of El Salvador's GDP, and positively affect the incomes of the country's citizens. The analysts have called the democratization of financial services another advantage of the introduction of bitcoin, since approximately 70% of the adult population of the country does not have bank accounts. El Salvador can also attract direct foreign investment flows, becoming a major cryptocurrency mining center.

State Street, the second oldest bank in the United States with an investment portfolio of $3.1 trillion, plans to begin providing cryptocurrency related services. It is about helping private foundations to carry out transactions with digital assets and provide them with information on the optimal price levels for entering the crypto market.

But of course, things are not limited to State Street alone. Michael Miebach, CEO of payment giant Mastercard, said that cryptocurrencies must enter the banking sector on a large scale. Moreover, his company will do everything possible to become an integral part of the crypto space. "Mastercard is ready to become an assistant for the authorities in this task. We are ready for experiments and testing of digital currencies, so that in the end banks begin to work with them," said Miebach. And he added that Mastercard will allow 1 billion of its users to pay with digital assets in more than 30 countries around the world in 2021.
Recall that another payment giant, Visa, is already working on the integration of stablecoins into the global economy.

In terms of statistics, according to the research resource Glassnode, there was a sharp jump in the total number of active bitcoin addresses at the end of July. The increase in the indicator was about 30% in just a week. And the purses of "whales" accumulated 9.23 million BTC for the first time in history.

A further rise in prices is predicted by such an indicator as the ratio of put and call contracts in the bitcoin derivatives market. Low values of this indicator indicate that investors are supporting the rise in prices. And it fell to an 8-month low on August 01, that is, it is below the April value: the very one after which BTC surged above $60,000.

The likelihood index shows that there is a 30% chance that BTC will reach $46,000 in the near future. Moreover, according to the indicator, the overall probability that bitcoin will be worth between $50,000 and $55,000 is 28.3%.

The mood of analysts is even more elated. 60% of them vote for growth above $46,000. On the contrary, 20% are expecting a fall to the $30,000 area, and the remaining 20% vote for a sideways trend in the $35,000-42,000 range.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:46 pm

NordFX Trader Earned Over USD 5.5 Million in July



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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in July.

The most impressive result was a trader from India, account No.1566XXX, with a profit of USD 5,114,045. But he did not stop there, adding to this multimillion-dollar profit another half a million dollars, or rather USD 463,953, which he earned on his second account opened with NordFX. Thus, the total income of this client amounted to USD 5,577,998 in just one month and was obtained thanks to transactions in pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF), Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD) and a number of other currencies.

The pound helped another Indian trader as well (account No.1569XXX), who came in second with a result of USD 318,398 and used practically the same Forex pairs as trading instruments.

The British currency may well be called the hit of the month, since a client from China (account No.1397XXX), who was third with a profit of USD 179,327, rose to the podium thanks to transactions in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading in July, the largest increase of 164% was shown by the signal with the name claiming to be the top: BangBigBossTop1. If you look at the history of this signal, you can see that May, the first month of its life, was unprofitable, and then the signal went into plus and showed an increase of 398% for two summer months. At the same time, the highest drawdown on the account reached 55%, which would attribute it to high-income and high-risk signals.

The EAs for Life signal also attracts attention, showing a yield of 1207% since November 2020. The signal was generating stable profits for eight out of nine months of its life. However, May turned out to be extremely unsuccessful for it, the drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk.

Those investors who prefer small stable profits with minimal risk can pay attention to the COEX.Investments-Treis3 signal: about 5.5% gain in July with a maximum drawdown of only 1%. This signal has only one drawback so far: it is still very young and has existed since June 05, 2021.

- the PAMM service also has a lot of offers for investors who prefer low or moderate risk. For example, the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA increased his capital by 34% since January 2021 (5.3% in July) with a drawdown of less than 15%. And the capital gain under the management of TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 in four months was 18.4% with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the NordFX IB-partners, the TOP-3 was headed by a representative from India (account No.1504XXX), who received USD 58,960 as a commission.

His colleague from the Middle East (account No.1569XXX) came in second, earning USD 10,405.

The third place went to a partner from Vietnam (account No. 1551XXX) with a result of USD 8,053


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:02 pm

Forex Trading Robots: What and How Effective They Are



Traders can use not only their knowledge in their work, but also various computer programs: auxiliary scripts, as well as algorithms that can give recommendations and even open and close transactions on their own. These automated trading systems are called Forex robots. This article will discuss them in detail, as well as talk about the types and how to use them.

What is a Forex Robot?

This is a program code that operates according to the algorithm installed in it. There are several types of Forex robots from the point of view of the trading system embedded in them. They can work on the basis of indicators or a specific money and risk management strategy. A very large number of free Forex trading robots operate on the basis of the well-known Martingale strategy.

How does a Forex Trading Robot work? It is pretty simple. In fact, it is an automated strategy that does all the same things that the trader would do, but only without the participation of the latter.

Suppose the robot is based on the Relative Strength Index RSI indicator and operates on the principle of getting out of the overbought and oversold areas (70% and 30% of the indicator scale, respectively). As soon as such a situation occurs on the chart, the robot opens a transaction on its own (Fig.1). A trader would do the same if they worked with such an indicator.
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Such a computer assistant program can include either one single indicator or several similar algorithms. For example, the MACD indicator or the famous Stochastic Oscillator can be used in addition to the moving average. In this case, the robot's algorithm will be configured to receive signals based on two indicators, and trades will be opened only when these two indicators give the same commands, for example, to open a long position.

Main Types of Trading Robots

There are two main types of trading systems. The first one is semi-automatic, which only gives recommendations. That is, the trader needs to make their own decisions. The second one works completely autonomously. A trader launches it on their trading platform, and such a system analyzes the market and makes decisions by itself.

It's hard to say which approach is better. Each of these types has both advantages and disadvantages. For example, semi-automatic advisors (with manual opening of transactions) do not provide the trader with complete freedom and require the presence of the terminal at the moment the signal appears.

Fully automated trading bots work on the "plug and forget" principle, but there are also drawbacks here. Given that such robots are programmed to work with a certain set of tools, they cannot take into account, for example, the influence of fundamental factors on the market. And this can lead to losses from the work of such an advisor.

Some Recommendations for Working with Automated Trading Strategies

We have already noted above that robots that work completely autonomously have both their pros and cons. At least, it is not recommended to leave such algorithms unattended for a long time. Below we will give some useful tips for those planning to work with such bots.

1. Take a closer look at the trading system underlying the robot.

If you purchase an expert advisor or download it for free on the Internet, you need to carefully study what lies at the heart of such a trading bot. The fact is that the overwhelming majority of Forex robots are based on the so-called "martingale". What is that? This is a money management method that came to trading from casino.

It is based on the fact that every time you close a losing trade, you need to double the size of the next position. For example, if you opened a trade with 0.1 lot, then in case of a loss, the next trade would open with 0.2 lots. Further, if this trade has not made a profit, the next one will open in the size of 0.4 lots, and so on until you close the transaction at a profit.

As a result of this approach, the very first profitable trade will allow you to cover all losses and make a profit. But the risks of such a strategy are great. The fact is that the trader's deposit is always limited. If there is not enough money to open the next position, the trader will lose all the money that they invested in the formation of martingale steps earlier.

It should be noted here that the settings of the absolute majority of Forex trading robots using this trading strategy allow the trader to change the lot increase coefficient. And it can be set as more than 2.0 or less, for example, 1.5. That is, if you opened the first trade with 0.1 lots, then in case of a loss, the next trade will be opened with 0.15 lots, and so on.

2. Pre-settings.

Before giving the robot the opportunity to trade independently on the financial market, it is necessary to configure its main parameters. This applies to both functionality in terms of strategy, and in terms of capital and risk management. (One example of such settings was given above).

The strategy settings can be identical to the indicator settings. Some expert advisors have the option to regulate the algorithms they use. For example, you can set what period of the Moving Average will be used in the robot for trend trading.

As for money and risk management, most automated trading systems have such settings. For example, you will be able to set the robot software at which distance to put stop loss or take profit. And whether to place them at all. Also, the size of the lot with which the bot will work in the financial markets is determined. Some expert advisors set additional parameters, such as maximum deviation or spread when opening positions in order to avoid sending an order to a broker at a disadvantageous price. You can also limit the maximum number of simultaneously opened positions to reduce the risk of losing capital.

The number of settings in Forex trading robots can vary significantly: one computer program can have two or three of them, another - several dozens. The strategy tester, which is built into the MetaTrader-4 (MT4) trading platform, which NordFX brokerage company offers to its clients, will help to deal with them. 

3. Paid VS Free Trading Robots.

Today, you can find both paid and free advisors on the Internet. Many traders prefer the second option, since in this case there are no additional financial costs associated with their purchase.

The advantage of free Forex trading robots is that they really do not require any investment from the trader. However, there is one important nuance here that must be considered. When choosing a free Forex trading robot, you most often do not know the developer and the trading system that underlies such an algorithm. Therefore, in order to understand how it works, calculate its pros and cons, determine the presence or absence of errors in a computer program, you will need to test the work of such an assistant trader in the MT4 strategy tester, and then trade with it on a free demo account.

Paid trading robots are distinguished by a number of advantages, including full technical support from developers, a flexible system of settings and a history of their work with various parameters and trading instruments. In some cases, developers will be ready to make adjustments to the operation of this trading bot, recommended by the Forex trader.

How Forex Trading Robots Are Created

The first thing to know is that a trading robot may not work on all trading platforms. The most popular in the world, as already mentioned, is the MetaTrader-4 platform (or trading terminal), which uses a special programming language MQL4, with which thousands of programs for automatic Forex trading have already been created.

On the MetaTrader-4 platform, a trader will find special tabs with which they will get access to a huge number of special scripts, indicators and robots. One can buy them, rent them or just take them to test. You will also have hundreds of experienced programmers at your service, ready to create an automated trading system according to the algorithm specified by the trader. At the same time, it is very important to correctly draw up a technical task so that programmers do exactly what you expect to receive from them.

Myths about trading robots

There are several myths that are actively spreading on the Internet. We decided to dispel them and give objective information to those who want to try using trading robots in their trading. Here are the most interesting points:

1. Brokers are against the use of trading robots.

That's not true. For example, broker NordFX does not in any way prevent its clients from using such automated solutions. Moreover, robots have absolutely no effect on the relationship between the client and the company. The use of Forex trading robots is completely legal and does not constitute a violation of the Client Agreement.

2. Only paid robots give results.

It's not true either. And very often a free program can turn out to be no worse, if not better, than the one for which the owner asks hundreds or thousands of dollars. Moreover, it is not at all excluded that this "super-expensive", "super-professional" and "super-profitable" robot was stolen from real developers by hacking, or is simply an exact copy of a well-known, outdated model.

Therefore, once again, before using or acquiring any robot, it is necessary to carefully examine its “stuffing” and understand how it works.

3. Robots free the trader completely from having to make any decisions.

This is a false statement. A Forex trader tests and sets up the robot before launch anyway. Moreover, it is recommended to carefully monitor how the bot is trading and in case of a change in the market situation, either temporarily suspend the work or make the appropriate changes to the settings.

So, is it worth using trading robots in trading? This question is completely individual and depends on your preferences, experience, knowledge, availability of free time and the characteristics of your psyche. Definitely, the use of robots does not guarantee success, but the fact is that they can provide serious help in the work of the trader.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:02 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 19 - 23, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Macroeconomic data continued to arrive last week, indicating a recovery in the US economy and labor market. Inflation figures released on Tuesday July 13 were well above forecasts. ?he consumer price index increased by 0.9% ?n June, and by 5.4% and on an annualized basis, which is the highest growth rate since 2008. The core index, which excludes energy and food prices, has posted record growth since 1991, at 4.5% year on year.
The number of primary claims for jobless benefits dropped by 26,000 to 360,000 from July 04 to 10. This is the lowest since March 20, when the coronavirus pandemic struck the economy first. Earlier this month, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the number of jobs in the country increased over the past month by 850,000 (up 583,000 in May).
The US import price index rose 1% in June, while import prices excluding oil rose 0.7% in June. The Fed-New York manufacturing index rose from 17.4 to 43.0 for the month, also well above the forecast. According to the Federal Reserve data released on Thursday July 15, industrial production in the US as a whole increased by 0.4% in June compared to May, which also indicates a good pace of recovery in the US economy.
By “pre-covid” logic, all this data would have strengthened the dollar seriously. However, it has risen against the euro by just about 50 points in the past four weeks. And the pair has generally been in a sideways corridor with a minimal dominance of bears for the last two weeks: it traded in the range of 1.1780-1.1895 from July 05 to 09, and in the 1.1770-1.1880 range from July 12 to 16.
These figures fully confirmed the compromise scenario presented by the experts. As for the forecast of graphical analysis, it turned out to be almost perfect. Recall that it indicated a sideways trend within 1.1780-1.1900 on H4.
So why isn't the American currency growing? The reason lies in the hesitancy and doubts that still bedevil the US Fed. The head of this regulator Jerome Powell said speaking on July 14 at the Financial Services Committee of the US Congress that his department would not rush to tighten credit and financial policy and reduce the purchase of assets within the framework of QE. He repeated roughly the same thing the next day, in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell acknowledged that inflation is growing faster than expected, and if it goes beyond acceptable limits, monetary policy will have to be tightened ahead of schedule. But for now, the economy is “still far” from set goals. The rise in inflation, like many other factors, can be temporary. But after they disappear, they can be replaced by others. Now, the spread of the new COVID-19 strain supports the dollar against commodity currencies, but there is no telling how the markets will behave in the future. It is unclear how the early curtailment of the fiscal stimulus program will affect their mood as well.  
As a result, having given all this portion of doubts to the congressmen, Powell assured them that the Fed was certainly monitoring the situation closely and would respond promptly to its changes. However, the head of the central bank was unable to influence investor sentiment in any way (or perhaps did not want to), as a result of which the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow trading range and completed the five-day period at 1.1805;

- GBP/USD. The pair failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3900 over the past week. As with EUR/USD, bears had a slight advantage, helped by positive economic statistics from the USA. Great Britain could not please with anything like that. And although the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the month decreased by 24% - from 151,400 to 114,800, the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 4.8% (instead of the forecast drop to 4.7%). Investors are also worried about the onset of a new wave of COVID-19, due to which the number of new infections here has exceeded 50,000 per day. As a result, despite the fact that the bulls managed to keep the pair in the 1.3800-1.3900 channel all week, its lower border was broken on Friday, July 16 and the pair finished at 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. It was not possible to understand the sentiment of investors, as well as indicators, last week. The experts' voices were almost equally divided: 30% sided with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 40% just shrugged their shoulders. The inconsistency in the indicators' readings did not allow bringing their readings to any common denominator either. And, as the past five days have shown, it was this lack of forecast that proved to be the most accurate prediction: the USD/JPY pair drew a virtually perfect sinusoid.
As expected, the Bank of Japan did not present any surprises on Friday, July 16, and did not surprise anyone with its inaction, once again confirming the country's reputation as a super-safe haven for investors. Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not utter a single new intriguing word during the press conference once again. Investors knew very well without him that the Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation, but the level of activity will increase as the population is vaccinated.
The balance of power between the dollar and the yen was not affected by the discrepancy in the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and Japan. As a result, the pair ended the week almost where it started, at 110.05;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was ripping up in late June to early July, wishing to break through the $36,000 resistance. However, none of the attempts made by the bulls were successful. Now the initiative has passed to the bears, and we saw the opposite picture last week: the desire to drop the BTC/USD pair below the psychologically important level of $30,000, after which another wave of mass sales may follow.
Trading volumes on major crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and Bitstamp fell more than 40% in June, according to CryptoCompare. The decline in volumes was due to falling prices and lower volatility. But not only. The absence of large investors, most of whom are now engaged in traditional markets, trying to understand the situation with the coronavirus and the accompanying steps of regulators, is also affecting.
At the time of this writing, the flagship currency is held in the $31,000-32,000 region. And according to Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz, this is because of the USA. He stated in a comment to CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken an important defensive line in a market that has its bearish origins in Asia. “We see Asia selling bitcoin and the US buying back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War that we are getting into." 
To be honest, it is not yet clear whether it is good or bad that the crypto industry has grown to become a prominent part of the economic policies of the world's leading powers. Time will tell. Of course, Mike Novogratz can consider the exodus of miners from China to be a "big plus" and say that Beijing's repressive policies will not hinder the development of the industry. But judging by the charts, so far the advantage is on China's side. Many investors and traders prefer to stay out of the market for fear of further falls in quotes. Average daily trading turnover is now 76% below peak levels when the price was above $60,000. The total capitalization of the crypto market declined by nearly $100 billion in seven days, from $1.370 trillion to $1.275 trillion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index cannot get out of the Extreme Fear zone for several weeks now, fluctuating in the range from 20 to 22 points. (Recall that the market sentiment looked more optimistic a month ago, and the average value of the Index was 33 points).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We talked about the doubts prevailing at the Fed in the first part of the review. In such a situation, the rare unity of analysts looks all the more surprising. Thus, 75% of them were voted for a stronger dollar and a decrease in EUR/USD, 25% for the side trend, and, respectively, 0% for the euro to rise. Perhaps the principle "if you are not sure, buy dollar" worked. 
According to 39 out of 41 Reuters experts, the Fed will curtail its monthly asset purchase program by $120 billion before the end of 2022. Three of them believe that this will happen very soon, this year already. The number of those who expect an interest rate increase in 2022, and not in 2023, is also growing. Therefore, the consensus forecast for QE completion is in the next year, which supports the US dollar. The new wave of COVID-19 is also playing on the side of the American currency, recalling that it was during the pandemic that the dollar gained great importance as a reserve currency.
It should be noted that with the transition to the forecast by the end of summer, the number of supporters of a weakening dollar and a strengthening of the euro among experts increases from 0% to 50%.
Graphical analysis on H4 still indicates a sideways trend within the channel 1.1780-1.1900. There is a mixture of red, green and neutral gray colors among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, but the situation is different on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look down.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1880-1.1900, then 1.1975-1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge before the end of summer is to update the high of May 25 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The nearest support on the way to this target is 1.1780. 
The economic calendar for the coming week can note the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday July 22. The rate is highly likely to remain unchanged, at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the bank's management and its commentary on monetary policy is of much greater interest. According to Reuters, the ECB will have to decide at its meeting on Thursday what the new inflation target will mean for its future course. If the regulator is serious about raising inflation to 2% (compared to the previous target - close, but below 2%), then the large-scale purchase of assets is likely to continue. But the "hawks" insist on curtailing incentives, and therefore investors will be interested in whether the head of the Bank, Christine Lagarde, will be able to achieve a certain compromise. 
The Markit PMI values in Germany and the Eurozone will become known the day after the ECB meeting, on July 23, on the basis of which it will be possible to get an impression of the pace of the European economic recovery;

- GBP/USD. Experts are a little more optimistic about the future of the British currency than the future of the euro. So, 25% of specialists vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair in the near future (as opposed to 0% for EUR/USD). The same is higher at the month and a half interval as well: 65% are bull supporters (the euro has 50%).
As for the technical analysis, there are only faint hints of a possible rise in the pair. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored red on H4 (the remaining 25% are in the oversold zone). 85% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look south on D1. 
Support levels are 1.3740, 1.3700, 1.3670 and 1.3600, resistance levels are 1.3800, 1.3840 and 1.3900. The further target of the bulls is the upper border of the medium-term channel 1.3700-1.4000;


- USD/JPY. As in the case with the previous two pairs, in this case, the majority of experts (70%) expect the dollar to strengthen and a new attempt by the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 111.00. Such a forecast comes into a certain contradiction with the indications of technical analysis on D1. Here 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are colored red.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws the movement of the pair in the range of 109.70-110.40 on H4, with a subsequent fall to support at 109.30. The range of fluctuations is somewhat wider on D1: first, the fall to the zone 108.65-109.30, and then the rise to the resistance 111.00 and further growth to the July 02 high, 111.65;   

- cryptocurrencies. We provided the key estimates of the digital market over the last period in the first part of the review. And they don't look rosy at all. It may be too early to talk about the onset of "crypto winter", but it is quite possible to call the current situation "crypto freezes". The BTC/USD chart continues to form a triangle with downward resistance and horizontal support around $31,000. 65% of analysts vote for its breakthrough during the coming month. That being said, according to some experts, if the bulls fail to hold that front line, we stand a lot of chances to see the pair in the region of $10,000 by the end of the year.
But, as usual, there is an opposite point of view as well. So, for example, analyst Will Clemente believes that bitcoin is already ready for a major price movement. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from the narrow range. As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to him, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
The expert also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. But now there is no fall, and this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.
Another specialist, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, agrees with Clemente's opinion. According to him, the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a level where it can resume its rally towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter. The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."
No one knows yet which of the predictions will turn out to be correct. But there are a couple of ways to make money on cryptocurrency without spending a dime to buy it. However, both of these methods can be classified as "dirty" business. And this in our traditional heading crypto-life hacks.
First, you can help British IT engineer James Howells sort through rubbish. The fact is that this wonderful person threw a hard drive with 7,500 BTC into rubbish eight years ago, confusing it with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property but was refused. And now Howells has developed a new search plan using a super system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence. However, the implementation of this project requires significant financial costs. And if suddenly someone helps an engineer find the disk in a simple way, with the help of a shovel, he will surely share his new-found wealth. Today, his bitcoins are worth more than $230 million, and it is necessary to sort out "only" 300-400 thousand tons of waste.
Another way of “dirty” earnings was told by Reuters. According to this agency, students at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) make money from... going to the toilet. For each visit, they are paid a certain amount in digital currency Ggool.
One of the institute's professors has developed a plant that uses student waste to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:45 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%. 
The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy. 
The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation “below but near 2%.” Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.       
As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ¬at 1.1877;

- GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890; 

- USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

- cryptocurrencies. A poll by Morning Brew found that what retail crypto investors fear most is... Elon Musk's tweets. This was confirmed by another survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.
To be sure, his tweets, like bans on cryptocurrency transactions in China, triggered the collapse, which saw bitcoin collapse from a height of $64,600 to $30,000. However, many experts believe that the main reason for what happened is the use of leverage in the crypto market, otherwise margin trading, which allows traders to open large positions with little funds. And it was the avalanche-like closing of such positions that led to a drop in quotations and a decrease of more than 45% in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
As for the Chinese authorities, they continue to squeeze virtual currencies out of the country. The People's Bank of China said bitcoin and stablecoins pose a threat to financial security and social stability and has banned the provision of a range of services to companies associated with the market, including software development, rental of premises and marketing services.
At the moment, large capital is watching the migration process of miners from the PRC. And the country in which they will resume their work is of particular interest. If it's going to be the US, it's likely to bolster the industry's image in the eyes of institutionals. Especially since Crypto Head estimates that of 76 countries, the United States is the best prepared for mass adoption of digital assets. However, it is believed that miners fear the US authorities no less than the Chinese. And therefore, they can choose the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc., where there are territories with a cold climate and access to relatively cheap energy resources. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, as we wrote, Kazakhstan had already passed a law on additional energy charges for cryptocurrencies in anticipation of miners.
Note that due to the bans introduced in China, the hash rate in the blockchain fell by almost 50%. This led to major changes in the complexity of the algorithm, and an equally serious increase in the profits of the remaining miners. They are now earning income, about the same as at BTC's $60,000 cost.
As for investors, they have been watching the main cryptocurrency trying to rise above the resistance of $ 36,000 for the third week. Another attempt by the bulls last week was unsuccessful again, and the BTC/USD pair was trading in the $32,500-33,500 zone by Friday night July 09.
The total crypto market capitalization has changed insignificantly over the week: from $1.358 trillion to $1.370 trillion. That being said, there has been a small flow of funds from altcoins (including ethereum) to bitcoin over the past few days. JP Morgan’s analyst Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou also noted this in an interview with CNBC. This move has reversed a trend that began in April when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins and could mean that the bear market for BTC is coming to an end. But it is clearly premature to talk about any serious progress. This is confirmed by quotes, capitalization volumes, and readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is still in the Extreme Fear zone, having dropped by 1 point over the week, from 21 to 20.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
Experts’ opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;

- GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;
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- USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders. 
Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00. 
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors; 

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's daily trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since early 2021, according to analyst firm Arcane Research. The BTC/USD pair is trying unsuccessfully to climb above the $36,000 horizon for the third week in a row. The fact that it has been trading near local lows since the end of May, of course, scares investors. A dip below the current low of $28,800 could lead to another massive sell-off and a new crypto winter.
At the same time, a number of experts interpret the current situation as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method. This means that $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise growth should be expected in the future. Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance.
- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. This expert is known for applying to bitcoin the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, previously traditionally applied to commodities such as gold and silver. According to PlanB's calculations, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether, by the end of the bull race, BTC will actually be able to reach the six-digit range and, as a result, reach the $288,000 mark. 
It should be noted that the forecasts of the institutions look much more modest. For example, CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.
While assessing altcoin prospects, many experts, including Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank founder Michael Novogratz, say that Ethereum may well weaken bitcoin in the future and become the foundation for pricing in the market. BTC became popular as a means of saving. But if you sum up the number of projects and directions working on the ETH blockchain, the advantage of Ethereum becomes obvious. Stablecoins, De-Fi, and NFT tokens work on its blockchain. The ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks, also believe that today ethereum is the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential that can overtake bitcoin. But at the same time, the bank's experts are also confident that neither bitcoin, nor ethereum, nor any other cryptocurrency will overtake gold in popularity in the near future. Because of its high volatility, digital assets cannot be accepted as a safe haven by investors, and therefore lose out in direct competition with this precious metal.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:16 am

June 2021 Results: Three NordFX Traders' Profits Exceed $445,000


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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2021. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

By a huge margin, the best result of the month was shown by a client from India, account No. 1566XXX, with a profit of 329,320 USD, which was obtained thanks to numerous transactions in a variety of pairs: GBP/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, GBP/CHF, etc.

The second ranking of most successful traders was a NordFX client from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who used some of the most popular instruments, bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) and generated revenue of 74,865 USD. It should be noted that the profit of this trader looked very impressive in May as well, 53,207 USD.

The TOP-3 of June is closed by a trader from China (account No.1397XXX) with a result of 41,862 USD, obtained through operations with the British pound (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs).

In the CopyTrading service, a young account Fire_1 can be noted among signal providers. It has existed for only a month, and the profit on it has been 414% during this time with a maximum drawdown of 55%.

Those investors who prefer less aggressive, but also less risky trading can pay attention to the PAMM account KennyFXPRO-The­ _Multi_3000_EA. It has been working for 160 days, and it has shown an increase of 28% during this period with a drawdown of less than 15%. The profit is certainly not that great, but it is still many times higher than the interest on bank deposits.

Commissions of NordFX IB partners in June were as follows:
- the largest commission, 32,079 USD, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401ХХХ, who received 7,959 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1522ХХХ, who received 5,899 USD as a reward, closes the top three.
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:30 am

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699.  
The growth of the American currency was due to the expectation that the pace of the US economic recovery will force the Fed to accelerate plans to reduce the programs of financial and credit stimulus (QE). And the market expected the strong labor market data, which was due out in mid-Friday, to push the dollar even higher.
According to the Department of Labor, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls) actually turned out to be higher than the forecast by 150 thousand: 850 thousand instead of the estimated 700 thousand. The EUR/USD pair fell further downward, however, having reached the level of 1.1805, it unexpectedly turned around and soared to the north no less rapidly. The reason was the second published indicator: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate should have decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%. 
This result showed a weak recovery in the US labor market, investors' expectations regarding the imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy weakened, and this supported the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones index went up, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite renewed all-time highs once again. The DXY fell to 92.24 and EUR/USD closed the weekly session at 1.1863;

- GBP/USD. Concerns about the Delta COVID-19 strain are putting a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. Investors were not pleased with the data on the UK GDP for Q1, which turned out to be worse than the forecast (minus 1.6% versus minus 1.5%). 
With regard to inflation, in his speech on Thursday July 1, the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stressed that its high rates are temporary, as the British economy returns to the average and slows down the growth rate. This announcement pushed the pound further down. And if not for the disappointing US unemployment data, the GBP/USD pair would probably have tested the 1.3670 support. In reality, its fall was stopped at the 1.3730 horizon, and the last chord of the week sounded 100 points higher, at 1.3830; 

- USD / JPY. the Bank of Japan published the value of the Tankan index for Q2 of this year on July 1. This index reflects the general business conditions for large companies in the country. A reading above 0 is considered to be a positive factor for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is considered negative. The index was projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. Tankan did grow, though not to 15, but to 14. But neither its growth nor its value have had virtually any impact on the USD/JPY pair. As it was not strongly influenced by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The pair basically just copied what was happening with the DXY index. The dollar grew, and the pair also grew, breaking through the important resistance of 111.00 and finding itself at a height of 111.65 - very close with the high of March 24, 2020 - 111.70. Then the dollar collapsed, and so did the pair. True, it was able to stay above the horizon at 111.00 and finished at 111.05;

- cryptocurrencies.  The forecast, which was given seven days ago, said that "with a high degree of probability, the fight between bulls and bears in the $30,000 area will continue." This is exactly what happened. The local bottom was reached at $30,200. Then the bulls managed to raise the BTC/USD pair to $36,590, but they could not keep it above the psychologically important level of $36,000, and the price of bitcoin dropped to $32,700 on Friday, July 02.
The lack of significant victories on both sides was facilitated by a fairly calm news background. We list just a few, more or less noticeable, of these news stories:
- There was a rumor that Paraguay could be the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. However, then it was clarified that the purpose of the bill, which will be presented to Parliament on July 14, is completely different and is to regulate digital assets, and not to turn bitcoin into a national currency.
- The panic after the mining ban in China is gradually subsiding. In China itself, authorities have banned energy companies from supplying electricity to miners. In theory, this should have brought the hash rate down to zero in the country. However, some enterprising crypto miners are trying to continue their business using small private hydroelectric power plants. Another part of mining companies migrates - some to the USA, and some, for example, to Kazakhstan. Against this background, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law on the introduction of additional payments for electricity when mining cryptocurrencies, which may negatively affect the country's attractiveness for this industry.
- Ark Invest, managed by Katie Wood, is the ninth company to apply to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). 
- According to the analytical service Chainalysis, the number of crypto investors in India has exceeded 15 million, and investments in cryptocurrency over the past year have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion, which means an increase of 20,000%.
- A veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest holders of BTC, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu, drowned in Costa Rica. He was known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world." The crypto community called him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and the "sleeping giant" who "could at one moment bring bitcoin to virtually zero and hold the price for some time." The actual number of coins owned by Popescu could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC, making him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now, this huge number of bitcoins seems to have disappeared forever.
And a few words about Elon Musk (we can't do without him!). Perhaps the billionaire has already played enough with bitcoin and Dogecoin, and now he has a new hobby - BabyDoge. After his tweet with three repeated unpretentious text "Baby Doge, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, ...", the value of this coin has increased by 500% in two weeks, and the trading volume has tripled. It is still unknown whether Musk himself made money on such a "pump".
As for the crypto market as a whole, unlike BabyDoge, its capitalization increased very slightly over the week: from $1.336 trillion to $1.381 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell from 47.05% to 45.52%, and the BTC Crypto Fear & Greed Index found itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again, at around 21 points.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The data on inflation and consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone are not the most encouraging. Tourism revenues are falling, due to the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the divorce from the UK. In general, optimism about the recovery of the European economy is declining.
As for the United States, Congress has raised its forecasts for 2021 both on the growth of inflation - from 1.7% to 2.8%, and on the growth of the country's economy - from 3.7% to 7.4%. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 7%, the fastest pace since 1984. As for the interest rate, according to the IMF experts, the Fed will raise it either at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggests starting to wind down the Asset Purchase Program (QE) as early as this year. And the faster that happens, the sooner the interest rate will be raised in 2022.
The Fed is constantly saying that it will raise the interest rate in full employment only. And if the labour market data released on July 02 were positive, it would have sent EUR/USD to the March 31 lows of 1.1700. However, instead of falling, the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in June, casting doubt on the continuation of the pair's downtrend.
Before the release of unemployment data, 70% of experts sided with the bears. Now the situation has changed, and 65% expect the pair to grow during July. The same applies to indicators: 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1 were colored red until mid-Friday July 02. But by the time the markets closed, the color scheme on H4 had changed: some of the indicators turned into neutral grey, and some even turned green.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1975, then 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1765.
The economic calendar for the coming week looks rather modest. It highlights Tuesday, July 06, when the Eurozone retail sales data and the ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released;

- GBP/USD. There is no unity in inflation estimates in the ranks of the Bank of England's senior management. Suffice to listen to the soothing statements of the head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the exact opposite - of the chief economist Andy Haldane, who is greatly alarmed by inflationary risks. We have already said in the first part of the review that thanks to Bailey's position, the pound came under pressure, and its quotes were “saved” from a further fall by the increased unemployment in the US. Otherwise, the pound would have continued its decline as a pair with the euro.
The GBP/USD forecast, as with EUR/USD, changed the vector dramatically at the very end of the past week as well. If before the US unemployment data was published, 60% of analysts had expected the UK currency to weaken further, 75% vote for the growth of the pair during the month. Technical analysis readings on H4 have also mixed, although 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still facing south. Graphic analysis on H4 indicates the pair's growth to 1.3900, and D1 shows its movement during the week in the range 1.3730-1.3870.
Support levels are 1.3800, 1.3730 and 1.3670, resistance - 1.3900, 1.4000, then the zone 1.4100-1.4165;
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- USD/JPY. The indicators for this pair are almost no different from those of their EUR/USD and GBP/USD counterparts. (Only in this case, their color changes from red to green). But the opinion of experts here turned out to be more constant, it just changed quantitatively: if 55% had voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decrease in the pair, then their number increased to 75%. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways movement of the pair along the support/resistance line of 111.00, on D1 it forecasts first a decline to 110.40, and then an increase above the high of March 24, 2020, at 111.70.
The targets of the bears are the zones 109.75-110.100 and 108.00-108.55. The bulls, subject to taking the height of 111.70, will seek to raise the pair to the high of February 20, 2020, 112.25; 

- cryptocurrencies. According to a report by cryptanalytics company Glassnode, institutional demand for bitcoin is declining. One of the main factors supporting the upward trend in BTC was the influx of institutional investments into the GBTC Grayscale trust fund. Glassnode analysts note that declining GBTC premiums, net outflows from ETFs, and stagnating Coinbase balance sheets indicate that demand for the main cryptocurrency from institutions remains weak.
Despite this, many of the experts are optimistic about the current situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, "the cryptocurrency market is not yet quite healthy; however, the healing process has already begun." Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse. For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market is described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult." 
Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a number of negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said. And he adds that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal.
Jason Urban, co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital, is waiting for the market to turn north as well. He notes that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC. According to the specialist, “we will soon see an update to the historical high,” and the quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year.
Former Gyft CEO and Civic project co-founder Vinny Lingham also spoke out. He was once nicknamed "the oracle" for the fact that he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.
Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin. Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. “This is an asset that has international value and is traded globally with incredible liquidity. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period." 
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.
Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of NBC's Mad Money show Jim Kramer is of the opposite opinion. He has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he explained that he gave preference to this altcoin, since Ethereum is much more useful for people than the main cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:14 pm

NordFX Lottery: First $20,000 Found Their Owners


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The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 1, 2021. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

The first $20,000 of the total prize pool of $100,000 were raffled off among NordFX clients. The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

Prize amount $2500
No. of the winning ticket: 2595, 1183
Prize amount $1000
No. of the winning ticket: 0455, 3243, 2611, 3282, 4826
Prize amount $500
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Stan NordFX
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Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
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https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:03 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).
Despite the slowing American economy, the risk appetite of those willing to invest in it has not subsided, but, on the contrary, even grew. They were backed by President Joe Biden's Senate-approved infrastructure plan. This plan includes the construction of new roads and bridges, ports, investments in water supply, clean energy and broadband internet. The total investment will amount to $1.2 trillion. Such an infusion will create thousands of new jobs and add points to the United States in the economic confrontation with China.
The rise in related investor optimism has already led the Dow Jones to gain more than 1,400 points over the week, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite once again updating historic highs, and The VIX Fear and Volatility Index fell to a one-year low.
The outflow of funds to the stock markets weakened the dollar. The DXY dollar index fell from 92.32 to 91.80, while the euro was winning back 110 points from the American currency at the week's high. Starting from 1.1865, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1975 on Friday June 25, after which the bulls dried up, followed by a fightback and finish at 1.1940;

- GBP/USD. A meeting of the Bank of England took place on Thursday, June 24. As for the specific momentary steps of the regulator, no one expected any surprises from it. It was clear to everyone that the Bank of England would not make drastic moves and would leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. So it happened: the asset buyback program was maintained at ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1%.
However, investors had hoped that positive UK labor market data would prompt the Bank's management to start discussing moves to wind down programs for quantitative easing (QE) soon. Just as their colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic intend to do.
On these expectations, as most analysts predicted (55 per cent), the GBP/USD pair moved north, reaching the key 1.4000. However, then the degree of optimism went down. The first tub of cold water was poured on Wednesday June 23 following the publication of the June Markit PMI for the UK services sector. It turned out to be lower than in May: 61.7 compared to 62.9. And then a whole chilling waterfall followed: the Bank of England not only did not change the parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program but did not give a hint that these parameters could be changed in the foreseeable future.
Carried away by a stream of sobering water, the GBP/USD pair groped the local bottom only at 1.3870. And barely pushing off from it, it was able to complete the week 20 points higher, at the level of 1.3885;   

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (65%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They were supported by graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. And they were all right: despite the fact that the dollar was falling against the euro and the pound in the first half of the five-day period, it was growing against the Japanese yen, reaching the height of 111.10 on June 24. True, the Japanese currency failed to gain a foothold there, and it placed the last chord at 110.75;

- cryptocurrencies. Although these currencies are virtual, the news regarding them is quite real. Let's start with a brief overview.
The developer of the well-known anti-virus of the same name, “crypto-baron” John McAfee has been found dead in a cell at a prison in Barcelona. The cause of death, Forbes reports citing the Spanish Ministry of Justice, is believed to have been suicide after a Spanish court decided to extradite McAfee to the United States. There, among other things, he was accused of money laundering, tax evasion and orchestrating altcoin fraud. The US DOJ claimed McAfee and his partner earned more than $2 million on cryptocurrencies.
However, this 2 million seems a ridiculous figure compared to the $3.6 billion that Africypt's creators, brothers Raees and Ameer Cajee, from South Africa, stole from investors. And if John McAfee was already 75, then these scammers were barely 17 and 20 years old, respectively.
According to Bloomberg, the Cajee brothers' scam could become the largest in the history of the cryptocurrency market. So far, the top line has been held by Canadian QuadrigACX project creator Gerald Cotten, emptying the pockets of $162 million worth of customers.
These amounts are large, of course. But the main losses for investors do not come from the actions of fraudsters, but because of the regulators. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by almost $400 billion in just 10 days, from June 15 to June 25, - from $1.734 trillion to $1.336 trillion. It even fell to $1.164 trillion at the low, returning to the values of February 2021. In addition, almost $900 million of futures positions were liquidated in just one day, June 23.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the BTC network also decreased. However, according to a number of experts, this may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.
The negative news background led to a drop in bitcoin quotes below the dangerous psychological level of $30,000. As a result, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it was five months ago, on January 27, 2021. The local bottom was reached at $29,240 (a loss of about 55% from the April 14 high).
According to a number of experts, the benchmark currency could have fallen down to $25,000, but buyers came to its rescue, who were waiting for the moment to buy an asset at a large discount. As a result, the pair grew slightly, and on the evening of Friday June 25, BTC traded in the region of $32,000-33,000 per coin.
It would seem that in such a situation, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would have to fall deep into the Extreme Fear zone, to zero. However, having shown a minimal drawdown of up to 22 points, it quickly returned to where it was a week ago, to the 25-point mark.
According to some experts, the fact that bitcoin has held up in the $30,000 area proves its exclusivity. Without it, altcoins would most likely just go into free fall.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Recall that after the June 16 meeting, the hawkish forecasts of Federal Reserve executives have dramatically revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Inspired by their rhetoric, investors rushed to buy USD even despite weak US macro statistics.
As a result, having started on June 16 from a height of 1.2125 and flying down 280 points, the EUR/USD pair completed the five-day period at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. And it turned around again and went up on Monday, June 21.
What is that? Have investors changed their minds? Or is it just a correction on the downtrend path?
On the one hand, representatives of the FRS continue to insist that the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore, for now, it is necessary to maintain soft financial conditions. Such statements, coupled with improved global risk appetite and positive economic data from the Eurozone, should push the EUR/USD pair higher.      
But on the other hand, Jerome Powell and his colleagues recognized the need to discuss the process of winding up stimulus programs (QE). There was also a signal of their intention to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The ECB, on the contrary, declares that they are not going to rush to reduce QE volumes, and that the current inflation rate in the Eurozone does not cause concern. And these factors are already not playing on the side of the dollar.
The macroeconomic indicators published next week may tip the scales in one direction or another. Data on the German consumer market will be released on Tuesday June 29 and Thursday July 1, and a preliminary consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, showing the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. As for the statistics from the United States, we will find out the change in the ISM business activity index in the country's manufacturing sector on July 1. And data on the US labor market will come out on June 30 and July 02, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The next target for the bears is the March 31, 2021 low. 1.1700. The nearest support is 1.1915 and 1.1880.
The remaining 40% of the experts side with the bulls, which will try to regain the positions lost over the last month. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to update the May 25 high at 1.2265;

- GBP/USD. As a reminder, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed the full opening of the country's businesses for a month. This is due to an increase in cases of infection with the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. The number of infections has approached 20,000 a day, and this is putting pressure on the pound. (Although only 18 people died from COVID-19 during the same period. The ratio is less than 0.001, which is a very optimistic indicator).
The increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. This is especially true for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
However, at the same time, 50% of experts hope that the British currency will find the strength to retest the level of 1.4000 and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest resistance is 1.3940. More distant targets are 1.4150 and 1.4250. 
20% of analysts are betting on the victory of the dollar and the fall of the pair to the zone 1.3670-1.3700. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will remain in the sideways channel 1.3800-1.4000.   
The indicator readings look like this: 85% of the oscillators are colored red, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are also overwhelmingly in the red zone. Those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. Graphical analysis draws the following trading ranges: 1.3850-1.4050 for H4, 1.3770-1.4000 for D1.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the publication of UK GDP data on Wednesday June 30, as well as the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Thursday July 1;
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- USD/JPY. Who will win: USD haven currency or JPY's safe haven?  Or, if you like, you can ask the question the other way around: a safe haven currency JPY or a safe haven USD? 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 bet on the dollar to win. However, the remaining 20% of the oscillators are signaling that the pair is overbought.
Graphical analysis believes that having pushed off the support in the 109.75-110.100 zone, the pair will go up, break through the resistance at 111.00 and try to first update the high of last year March 24 at 111.70, and then the high of February 20, 2020, of 112.25.
Experts’ opinions on the pair's movement in the coming week were divided equally, 50 by 50. However, in the transition to the forecast for July, 75% side with the bears, believing that the USD/JPY pair will be able to drop to the area of 108.00-108.55.
In terms of macro statistics, the Bank of Japan will release the Tankan Index for Q2 of this year on July 01. This Large Producers Index reflects the general business environment for the country's large, mostly export-oriented companies. A reading above 0 is positive for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is negative. The index is projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021.  

- cryptocurrencies. It is highly likely that the bull and bear fight in the area of $30,000 will continue. The medium-term goal of the latter is to bring the BTC/USD pair back to the $20,000 mark, the December 2017 high, after reaching which the market was pinned down by ice frosts. Now the pair has lost about 55% in just two months. So, the current crypto winter could turn out to be much harsher than in 2018. As mentioned above, investors are actively closing long positions and liquidating futures transactions. And the heads of financial giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have again declared bitcoin an unwanted investment.
Investor and founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, Michael Burry who had predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned his subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote. The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." 
The author of the bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined Michael Burrie. He also expects the crypto market to collapse. “The biggest bubble is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote. (Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000).
Jim Kramer, former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show, sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control,” he said and he added that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place.” 
However, as usual, there are not only those who sell in the market, but also those who buy. Thus, for example, the founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor: “Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.
The MicroStrategy company also replenished its reserves of the main cryptocurrency, having bought another 13,005 coins. This Michael Saylor firm now owns 105,085 BTC, making it the largest corporate investor in digital assets.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Sailor wrote on Twitter, the 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
In terms of forecasts, the scenario described by the popular PlanB analyst is interesting. As usual, the specialist relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” PlanB tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.
The weighted average forecast of experts for the coming week looks like this: 70% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $36,000 zone, the remaining 30% see it at $28,000-29,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:15 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues raised the forecast for US GDP for 2021 to 7%, and also recognized the need to discuss the process of curtailing fiscal stimulus programs (QE). The Fed has no intention of turning a blind eye to accelerating inflation to the highest marks since the 1990s. However, according to Powell, the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore it is advisable to maintain soft financial conditions for now. At each subsequent meeting, the regulator will consider reducing QE volumes. And he will set out the level of employment after which incentives can be reduced, at the next meeting on July 28.
Investors also received a signal of intent to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An averaged forecast by Fed executives showed that the rate could be gradually raised to 0.5-0.6 percent by the end of 2023. At the same time, Jerome Powell noted that vaccination has a positive effect on the labor market, and we will soon see strong employment reports. Inflation may also be stronger and more stable than central bank officials had expected. And it will require a quicker response to what is happening.
Such "hawkish" forecasts of the Federal Reserve System instantly revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Investors continued to buy USD despite weak macro statistics, thinking that the indicators will improve as the US economy recovers.
One of the major currencies that suffered last week was the euro. Europe's economy has not kept pace with America's in any way. And according to Philip Laine, the ECB's chief economist, it will be too early even in September for the regulator to begin discussing the programme of winding down QE in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting from a height of 1.2125 on June 16 and flying 280 points, EUR/USD reached the local bottom at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. The finish took place at 1.1865, in the zone where the pair returned after a 10-week absence;

- GBP/USD. If the euro fell against the dollar by 280 points, the pound ceded as much as 340 to the US currency. Positive sentiment about the UK currency is melting like fog over London after the country's prime minister, Boris Johnson, delayed the full opening of the country's businesses by a month. This is due to an increase in cases of the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. And this despite the fact that about 80% of the country's adult population has already been vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and 30% have been vaccinated with two doses.
The pound is also under pressure from the increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit. This is particularly true of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Against this unjoyful backdrop, another “blow” is being struck on 16 June by the U.S. Federal Reserve management. The result is a fall of the pound to the level of 1.3790, not far from which it ends the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the past five days, the majority of experts (60%) voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. And, looking at the results of the week, they were right: starting at 109.70, the pair finished at 110.20. 
It is clear that the statements of Jerome Powell and other executives of the US Federal Reserve could not but affect the behavior of the USD/JPY pair: it reached 110.80 at the high. In addition to the dollar's strengthening, weak macroeconomic statisticians from Japan have added pressure on the yen. Thus, the growth of orders for engineering products in April slowed down from + 3.7% to + 0.6%, against the forecast of 2.7%. Of course, the rate grew by 6.5% in annual terms, but still turned out to be lower than the expected 8%.
Despite this, amid the subsidence of the remaining major currencies, the Japanese currency has shown maximum resilience against the dollar. At the time when the euro, pound and other currencies continued their decline, it was, on the contrary, able to win back about 60% of the losses. The reason for this, according to a number of analysts, lies in the lower risk appetite of the market and increased investor appetite for safer assets;    

- cryptocurrencies. It has long been clear that news has a fairly strong impact on cryptocurrency rates. However, much more powerful fluctuations in this market are caused by large investments. There were none of those last week. On the contrary, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization even decreased slightly, from $1.585 trillion to $1.560 trillion. So there remains news, whose source is influencers and regulators.
In terms of the former, Elon Musk was once again there with his tweets. This time, the owner of Tesla said that the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy. Bitcoin is up 12% amid this tweet, according to CoinGecko. 
It is worth noting that the tweet was a response to criticism from the head of the financial company Sygnia Magda Wierzycki. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now about the regulators, news from which comes from all over the planet. Thus, Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. The government of India has also changed its anger to the mercy for bitcoin. Now, as in Tunisia, it intends not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market. 
Similar events are taking place in El Salvador. The president of this country, Nayib Bukele, has proposed a "bitcoin law" for parliamentary consideration. Under the bill, cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
Some important European officials, however, have fallen out of favor with digital assets. Thus, Peter Hasekamp, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dutch Ministry of Economy, said that a complete ban on mining and bitcoin transactions should be immediately imposed. In his opinion, digital gold has no intrinsic value, it is used in a criminal environment, and the collapse of the crypto market is inevitable.
But, judging by the emerging trend, Mr. Hasekamp will remain in the minority. Most regulators will try to take control of digital assets. As the great German chancellor Otto von Bismarck liked to repeat back in the 19th century, "If you cannot defeat the enemy, lead it."
Spurred on by the news and the bulls' desire to take revenge, the BTC/USD pair rallied earlier in the week, reaching $41,260 on Tuesday June 15. However, the sharp strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting reversed the uptrend, bringing the pair back below the $36,000 level at the end of the working week.
The Bitcoin dominance index added slightly, rising from 44.03% to 45.33%. The same thing happened with Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which went up from 21 to 25 points. Note that since the BTC/USD pair went sideways at the end of May, its values have never gone beyond the 20-40-point range.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Does the EUR/USD fall mean a trend reversal? Or will everything be back to normal soon and the dollar will continue to retreat? (Recall that at the turn of 2016-17, these two currencies almost reached parity. Then 1 euro was only $1.034, and after only a year the European currency was worth $1.2565).
In the wake of the Fed's comments, some banks began to abandon their bullish forecasts for the euro. Others took a break. Still others, such as Societe Generale, expect the pair to return to 1.2000. Opinions among experts are almost equally divided: 55% of them vote for a further fall, and 45%, supported by graphical analysis on H4, support its growth. According to the latter, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal, additional confirmation is needed, and the collapse that occurred is the result of speculation on the Fed's statements, which led to panic closing of long positions.
Technical analysis readings look like this: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. But at the same time, 35% of oscillators on both time frames are already in the oversold zone, which may indicate an approaching correction to the north.
The pair ended the previous week in a strong support-resistance zone, which it has been storming from time to time since 2017. The nearest target of the bears is the low of March 31, 2021, 1.1700, the next one - April 04, 2020 low, 1.1600. Bulls will try to regain their lost positions. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to refresh the May high of 1.2265. However, it will obviously take more than one week to reach it. And here it should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the advantage goes to the bulls, the number of which increases from 45% to 60%.
From the strategically important events of the coming week, it is worth highlighting the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday June 21 and Wednesday June 23, the meetings of the European Council on June 24-25, as well as the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell in Congress on June 22. In addition, Germany's Markit business activity will be released on June 23, followed by capital and durable orders and annual US GDP data the following day;

- GBP/USD. On Thursday, June 24, a meeting of the Bank of England is due. In the run-up to this event, experts continue to analyze incoming economic data in an attempt to forecast possible moves by the regulator.
As mentioned in the first part of the review, the negative factors include the risk of labor shortages arising from Brexit, the controversy in Northern Ireland and the problems associated with the new strain of coronavirus.
Against the backdrop of generally encouraging macro statistics, retail sales in the UK have unexpectedly dropped, especially food. This makes one think that the growth of the country's GDP in May and in the II quarter of 2021. will not be as strong as predicted.
The report released last Wednesday showed that overall inflation in the country is rising, and the CPI's annual rate rose by 2.1%, surpassing the 2% target for the first time in two years.
Adding to this the positive UK labour market data released on June 15, the Bank of England can be expected to start discussing moves to wind down programmes quantitative easing (QE) in the foreseeable future. As for the regulator's specific momentary steps, it is very likely that, like its counterparts in Europe and the United States, it will not move sharply and leave the parameters of its credit - monetary policy without change. Although, again, the Bank of England's management does not rule out hawkish statements similar to those of US Federal Reserve management. And they might, just as well, push the British currency back up.
55% of analysts expect the pound to rise, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Moreover, with the transition to forecasts for July-August, their number increases to 70%. The readings of the technical indicators are very similar to their readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% on both time frames are facing south. True, there are 25% oscillators in the oversold area here, not 35%. The nearest strong support is located in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone, followed by 1.3600. Resistances - 1.3920, 1.4000, 1.4150 and 1.4250;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the near future, the majority of experts (65%) vote for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. Graphical analysis on H4 is also in agreement with this forecast, however, it does not exclude that the pair will make a spurt to the north, relying on support at 109.70-109.80.
The remaining 35% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that this support will not become a serious obstacle to the strengthening of the yen, and the pair USD/JPY will be able to fall to the area of 108.00-108.55;

- cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not gone out of the fear zone for almost a month. Frightened by the collapse of quotes in April-May, many, especially retail, investors and traders take profits at the slightest sign of danger, which prevents the BTC/USD pair from gaining a foothold above the psychologically important level of $40,000.
And there's also the US Fed, fueling interest in the dollar and reversing stock indices. Suffice to compare the S&P500 and BTC charts to see their correlation, which, according to a number of experts, will now only grow stronger.
In the event of an active sale of shares, most likely, bitcoin will not feel good either, which is an even more risky asset for institutional investors. (Not to mention altcoins).
Yes, hedge funds understand not only the risks, but also the benefits of investing in digital assets. And, according to the Financial Times, they intend to "substantially" increase their shares in cryptocurrencies by 2026. But, first of all, 2026 will not come soon. And secondly, this "substantially" is not so "substantial". According to a survey of 100 hedge funds conducted by Intertrust, on average, they intend to allocate up to 7.2% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, which will amount to about $312 billion, that is, about 20% of the current volume of the crypto market. Agree that this kind of growth over 5-6 years looks modest enough.
Earlier, Tudor Investment hedge fund founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that hereserves 5% of his capital each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. The billionaire was going to determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent "very significant" jump in consumer prices. The meeting has passed and, perhaps, we will soon know the final content of the Tudor Investment portfolio.
The above leads to the conclusion that, despite caution in approaches, institutional investors continue to believe in the prospects of the crypto market. As another billionaire, Avenue Capital Management founder Mark Lasry, observed, the cryptocurrency market has already formed and is not threatened by anything. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere,” the financier believes.
It is also encouraging that hodlers holding bitcoins for more than six months have, for the first time since October 2020, started buying more than selling. And whales (wallets from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC) have purchased about 90,000 coins in the last month for about $3.4 billion. 
Such optimists include venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper. Back in 2018, he predicted the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations. The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold as protection from inflation.
And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time, the President of Salvador Nayyib Bukele is its hero, who has recently come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine bitcoin with "very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, zero emissions" energy... of more than 20 volcanoes in the country. So, if you happen to have an active volcano in your possession, you may well follow the example of the head of El Salvador. Elon Musk will be pleased.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:39 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the “temporary factors disappear.” So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target “throughout the forecast horizon.” 
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising. 
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108; 

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest; 

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028.  The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets’ replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold. 
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues.  Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;
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- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, “to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,” Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
 - and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
 And in conclusion, our traditional, albeit irregular, section of crypto life hacks. True, it applies not only to cryptocurrencies, but also to fiat this week. We are talking about the opportunity to top up your budget with a fairly round amount by taking part in the lottery held by the NordFX broker. There are a total of 100 prizes to be won for a total of $100,000. And the first draft will take place in two weeks, on July 1, so you may well have time to become a participant. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:55 am
May Results: NordFX Trader Earns Over $50,000 on Bitcoin Collapse

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in May 2021. The total income of the three most efficient of them exceeded 175 thousand USD.

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from China, account No.1546xxx, whose profit amounted to USD 81,648. This solid result was achieved on transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and euro (EUR/USD).

The second step of the podium with a result of 53,207 USD was taken by a representative of Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, who showed how to make money during market crashes. Their profit was mainly obtained from transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD), the quotes of which fell by about 40% over the month.

The third place is a trader from Indonesia, account No.1506xxx, who earned 41,799 USD in May on gold transactions (XAU/USD).       

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal -The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 45,000 USD in it.
- in the PAMM service, the same trader, KennyFXPRO, also shows a good result, which may be interesting for investors who prefer moderate earnings with moderate risks. This manager has seen a 24% capital gain since the end of January with a maximum drawdown of 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission of the month amounting to 6,568 USD was credited to a partner from India, account 1527xxx;
- the second place is a partner from China, account No. 1522xxx, who received 4,146 USD;
- and another Indian partner closes the top three, account No.1229xxx, with earnings of 3.975 USD.


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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:20 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. When giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.
The pair did go up at the beginning of the week, and it almost came close to the upper border of the channel on Tuesday June 01, reaching the height of 1.2255. The bulls got strength by the positive data on the Eurozone consumer market. However, this was not enough to continue the momentum, and the ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector, which also turned out to be "green", turned the pair down. The dollar strengthened even more on Thursday June 03 after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits updated the post-pandemic low for the fifth time in a row, falling to 385 thousand. And the employment rate in the private sector from ADP increased by 978 thousand, which is the highest level in almost a year. As a result, the DXY dollar index jumped 0.66%, adding 60 points and returning to the levels of the middle of last month, while the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to 1.2103.
The market froze in anticipation of data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP), which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month. But it was this data that disappointed those who were expecting further strengthening of the dollar: the figure was 599K instead of the expected 650K. As a result, the pair returned to the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 almost immediately and completed the five-day period at 1.2165;

-GBP/USD. A manager of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. This statement made the bulls hope that the pound will soon renew its 36-month high at 1.4240. But the bears decided that it was too early to rejoice, the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and a lot can happen during this time. And then, strong data on the US labor market came out on June 03, and disappointing data on June 04.
In general, just like EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair swayed on the waves of multidirectional news and finished within the three-week sideways corridor 1.4075-1.4220, placing the final chord in the 1.4165 zone;

- USD/JPY. We called the technical analysis readings for this pair Greenpeace In the previous forecast - green dominated there so powerfully. 60% of the experts supported the bullish sentiment then and made no mistake. Along with the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, the pair renewed the high of the last two months at 110.20 by Thursday June 03 and climbed to a high of 110.32. But then, due to the NFP data, it came under strong bearish pressure and ended the week trading session at 109.50;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin skyrocketed to its highest point of $64,595 per BTC On April 14.  On that day, June futures showed an even higher price, $66,450. And then came May. Thanks to the efforts of Elon Musk and Chinese regulators, bitcoin has lost half of its value, and spent the last two and a half weeks on consolidation in the area of $36,000-37,000.
Usually, such a consolidation is followed by an impressive leap forward. But in which direction: to the north or to the south? Everything that is happening suggests that it makes no sense to make forecasts based on technical analysis here. Even guessing by stars or coffee grounds can lead to more accurate results. The market is ruled by COVID-19, regulators and influencers.
Modern corporate culture, among other things, involves following environmental trends. This is exactly what one of the main influencers, the aforementioned Elon Musk, does. He, by the way, continues to influence investors with his tweets. So last week, he burst into vague speculations about whether Tesla could permanently abandon bitcoin, and thereby put an end to the hopes of bulls to break through the $40,000 level.
It's complicated with regulators, too. We talked in detail in previous reviews about the position of Beijing, which decisively indicated cryptocurrencies to leave. And Pascal Blanc, a top manager at Amundi, one of the largest asset management companies, supported the move, saying that cryptocurrencies are "farce" and "bubbles" and that governments and regulators will eventually "stop this music."
However, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB do not particularly interfere in the game of the "crypto orchestra", do not impose bans and sanctions on market participants, but are limited to observing what is happening. Their calmness serves as an example for other, less significant regulators, who also believe that the there is no sufficient accumulated experience yet to make sudden movements. For example, Norwegian Finance Minister Jan Thor Sanner said that people should have a choice of whether to invest their funds in bitcoins or other assets. Of course, provided that this process is properly regulated.
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance exchange, agrees with the Norwegian minister. He thinks it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them. No amount of regulatory action will be able to destroy bitcoin and blockchain, Changpeng Zhao said. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people,".
Indeed, the crypto market has become more global, not only small traders and investors are involved in it now, but the world's largest banks, investment funds and payment systems. And bitcoin itself was created in order to bypass various prohibitions and barriers. So, for example, Chinese traders and miners can transfer their activity to another jurisdiction. And it remains to be seen whether China itself will benefit from this.
In general, we will wait and see. In the meantime, as already mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is consolidating in the $36,000-37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index calmed down as well, rising by only 6 points in a week, from 21 to 27. But the Dominance Index went down smoothly again, dropping from 43.11% to 41.7% of the total crypto market capitalization, which was $1.663 trillion as of the evening of June 04.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair has been holding in the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 For the third week in a row and attempts to break it to either side do not succeed. Therefore, if we sum up the readings of technical indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, we get a neutral gray color.
As for macroeconomic factors, the data indicate a continuing recovery in the US labor market. And the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP) in May, although less than expected, is still twice higher than in April.
60% of experts believe that strong data on the labor market may persuade the Fed to reduce earlier bond buybacks and curtail QE programs. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds and strengthen the position of the USD. Warm summer weather, a large number of people vaccinated against COID-19, as well as the lifting of quarantine restrictions are cited as additional arguments.
However, Europe is not standing still either, as the remaining 40% of analysts say, so the strengthening of the dollar - if it happens, of course - may be temporary. According to these experts, the current improvement in the situation on the US labor market fits well into the Fed's plan and is not at all a reason for tightening economic policy and raising interest rates. Without this, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
The nearest target of the bears is the zone 1.1985-1.2000, the support levels on the way to it are 1.2135, 1.2100 and 1.2060. The bulls are still aiming to break the upper border of the 1.2265 channel and the pair to rise to this year's high of 1.2350.
As for the events of the coming week, the following should be noted: the release of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday June 08, and the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate (forecast - unchanged, at 0%) the next day, June 10, as well as the comments of the ECB on monetary policy. Also, the leaders of the G7 countries will meet on Friday 11 June and Saturday 12 June. The event, of course, is important, however, is not worth waiting for an instant reaction to it;   

- GBP/USD. The three-week sideways trend also affected the forecast of experts on the British currency: 35% of them vote for the pair's movement to the north, 35% look to the south, and 30% point to the east. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening grows to 55%.  
Graphical analysis draws the following picture until the end of June: first, the pair declines to support 1.4000, then a local low follows in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone and the pair returns to the 1.4200-1.4220 zone. Oscillators give multidirectional signals, while trend indicators are mostly colored green. These are 85% on H4, 95% on D1;

- USD/JPY. Technical indicators give chaotic readings for this pair. Only in trend indicators on D1 do greens still have a clear 75% advantage.
Graphical analysis forecasts are also controversial. It expects first a decline to the level of 109.00, and then a fall to the May lows in the region of 108.35 on H4. On D1, the forecast is the opposite: renewal of the March 31 high, 110.95. Resistances along the way are 109.70, 110.00 and 110.30.
The green summer season continues among analysts. The overwhelming majority (75%) expect the pair to grow, the remaining 25% look down.
Perhaps the yen's positions will be supported by the GDP data for the first quarter of 2021, which will be published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, June 08. According to forecasts, the fall in GDP may slow down from minus 1.3% to minus 1.2%, which will indicate the possibility of the country's economy coming out of the recession;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with a pessimistic view of the future. According to Yahoo Finance, the strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not rule out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. We stated previously, he says, that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. According to the expert, the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels. In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000. 
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is a barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,” explains the JPMorgan strategist. "The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors, and makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold."
Unlike Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, TV host and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Kaiser, is optimistic and expects the bitcoin price to hit $220,000 in the second half of 2021. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is also predicted by analysts of the American company Fundstrat. They came to this conclusion after studying the patterns on the chart of the first cryptocurrency rate. According to them, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. At the same time, it should be recalled that the co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee said earlier that the BTC rate could exceed the level of $100,000 this year, and the ethereum rate - $10,000.
But the cryptanalyst PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, turns out to be a fatalist. He informed his 517,300 followers that he considers his BTC investment as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So, what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at $30,000-35,000, which they bought in April at $ 55,000-60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. Good news: these 1 million bitcoins are now in strong hands,” PlanB summed up their assessment of the situation.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sun May 30, 2021 7:14 pm

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 31 - June 04, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of this pair on D1, it is safe to talk about the uptrend in the last eight weeks. But if you switch to lower timeframes, H4 or H1, it becomes clear that it has been in the "sideways" for the last two weeks, being squeezed in the range1.2125-1.2265. The last chord of the five-day period sounded in the area of the Pivot Point of this channel as well, at the level of 1.2194, without giving any guidance for the future.
The macro statistics of the past week looks diversified, and therefore hasn't managed to become a driver for the movement of the pair either to the north or to the south. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States continues to decline, but the indicator of pending sales in the real estate market is falling. Orders for capital goods (excluding defense and aviation) have risen, while orders for durable goods have fallen. And the annual data on US GDP (Q1) has remained at the same level. So investors don't know what to do.
Last spring, when the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, its policy was perfectly understandable: to pull the economy out of the crisis and support the purchasing power of the population. A year has passed, the recession is over, stock indices are mushrooming, unemployment is declining, inflation is gaining momentum. But the Fed continues to insist that the set targets have not yet been achieved and therefore it is too early to wind down the fiscal stimulus (QE) programs. So what should investors do with their spare money?
Some of these funds have gone to the long-overbought stock market, bringing the S&P500 back above 4200 and the Dow Jones above 3450. And another part, $485.3 billion, sits idle on central bank accounts at zero interest rates. And it should be noted that due to QE programs, this happens not only in the United States, but also in other countries, including Europe. As a result, a huge amount of both dollars and European and other currencies have settled in hands of not only American, but also foreign investors. And the market plunged into doubts, which is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart;

- GBP/USD.  The dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. And just like the euro, the British currency paired with the dollar has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, fluctuating within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. However, unlike the European currency, the activity of the bulls on the pound was significantly higher. This was facilitated by expectations of a faster than forecast increase in interest rates by the Bank of England.
One of the managers of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the official stipulated that this would happen only if the labor market recovers faster than expected.
Investors' optimism was added by the comment of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the latest statistics on COVID-19 does not require adjusting plans to lift quarantine restrictions on June 21. After both of these statements, the pair approached the 36-month high again, where, at 1.4188, it completed the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Only 25% of experts voted for the growth of the dollar in this pair in the past forecast. But in the battle between bulls and bears, they were strongly supported by the growth in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose from 1.57% to 1.62% on Thursday June 27. Given that the yen is a safe haven currency, such changes always put strong pressure on it, especially when you consider that the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is only 0.25%.
The yen was also pressured by fears of a delay in Japan's economic recovery. They were caused by media reports that the country's authorities plan to extend the state of emergency in Tokyo and some other regions for three weeks, until June 20. Additional support to the dollar was provided by the US budget proposed by the administration of President Joe Biden in the amount of $6 trillion.  
As a result, the USD/JPY pair broke out of the range 108.55-109.75 and, having gone up, reached the height of 110.20, updating the high of the last seven weeks. As for the week's finish, it was slightly lower: at the level of 109.83;

- cryptocurrencies. You can currently find a lot of similarities with the beginning of the crypto winter in 2014 and 2018. However, there are also many differences. Therefore, it is not worth yet to firmly assert that we are now witnessing the entry into winter 2021. Rather, the past month can be called late autumn, after which, bypassing winter, spring can start straight away.
The market is under pressure of the ongoing struggle against mining and trading in virtual currencies in China. For example, the 8 paragraphs of the document published by the Inner Mongolia Reform and Development Commission can help understand how this is happening. (According to the University of Cambridge, this region is China's third in terms of computing capacity of bitcoin).
So, Industrial parks and data centers are ordered to reduce energy consumption, and telecommunications companies are prohibited from working with miners under the threat of license revocation. The authorities also promise to prosecute illegal miners. The same applies to money laundering attempts and illegal fundraising using cryptocurrencies. In addition, the list mentions Internet cafes that will be closed if mining on their territory is revealed. Companies whose activities are related to cryptocurrencies mining, and their senior employees are subject to inclusion in the list of unreliable persons, and officials supporting the miners will be subject to disciplinary responsibility.
According to Reuters, the major mining companies BTC.TOP and HashCow are winding down their operations in China amid such tightening legislation. HashCow has not yet stopped the current capacity but has refused to buy new farms.
As for BTC.TOP, this company announced a complete cessation of work in the PRC.
On the other hand, there is good news as well. Elon Musk, because of whom the market experienced two serious falls in May, has now helped it grow again. A number of North American mining companies had a meeting with him,
which was organized by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor and decided to form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which aims to reduce the industry's greenhouse gas emissions. 
One of the first bitcoin miners, Marshal Long, criticized the move, saying that Musk was talking to the wrong companies because they control "a very, very small network hashrate." According to Long, if the billionaire wants to change the situation, he should negotiate with Coinmint and members of the non-profit Texas Blockchain Association, which control about 15% of the hashrate.
However, be that as it may, but the decision to create the Bitcoin Mining Council gave its positive result: according to the CoinGecko service, the crypto market capitalization increased by about 14%, and bitcoin rose in price by almost 12% against its background. The BTC/USD pair was trading at $40.865 at the high of the week, on May 26. It did not manage to overcome the $41,000 mark and dropped to the $35,000 area by the end of Friday once again.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to its 12-month low on May 24 at just 10 points, which is in line with the “Extreme Fear” of the market. However, along with the decline in the index, the likelihood of new purchases from investors expecting a large discount is growing as well. That was what happened this time as well. Bouncing off the bottom, the quotes went up. The indicator is in the "Fear" zone at around 21 points on Friday afternoon, May 28. So, the potential for further growth of the main cryptocurrency has not yet been exhausted.
The total crypto market capitalization peaked on May 12, reaching $2.560 trillion. But then a collapse followed, and the market had lost more than 40% by the time of writing this review, on May 28, shrinking to $1.529 trillion. About 1 million leveraged transactions were liquidated during this short period.
The lowest value in May for the bitcoin dominance index was 39.22%. It is slightly higher now at 43.11%. And it is possible that growth will continue further, thanks to the sale of less stable altcoins.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north. 
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;
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- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1,  95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;      

- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;

- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review.  The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Sat May 29, 2021 5:02 am
Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders


avatar
Stan NordFX
Number of messages : 123
Points : 1013
Date of Entry : 2019-04-22
Residence Country : Russian Federation
https://nordfx.com/

attention Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Mon May 24, 2021 10:54 am

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.
However, then the markets realized quickly that this phrase, in fact, does not mean anything in reality. And even if the US Federal Reserve starts to discuss in June the possibility of curtailing the QE program and raising interest rates, it is not worth waiting for concrete steps on these issues yet. This "enlightenment" allowed the bulls to return the pair to the 1.2240 high. But they failed to gain a foothold there.
On Friday, May 21, an increase in the yield on 10-year US government bonds from 1.61% to 1.63% and a decline in US stock indices, coupled with weak German business activity, pushed the EUR/USD pair back to support at 1.2160 once again. The last chord of the week sounded not far from there, at the level of 1.2180; 

- GBP/USD. The British currency is fluctuating following the risk appetite of investors. And naturally, the dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. At the same time, the pound seeks to renew not only the annual, but also the 36-month high at 1.4241, and has almost reached this target.
Making a forecast for the past week, most experts pointed to the corridor 1.4100-1.4200. And this forecast, with a minimum tolerance, turned out to be almost perfect.
At the beginning of the week, boosted by positive statistics from the UK labor market, the pair climbed from the 1.4075 horizon to 1.4220. Then, after the rebound, trading shifted a few points to the north, to the range of 1.4100-1.4232.
On Friday, during the American session, treasuries growth and impressive data from IHS Markit on the US services sector forced the bulls to retreat again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.4153;  

- USD/JPY. Most experts were siding with the bears for four weeks in a row, expecting the pair to drop to support at 109.00 and then at 108.35. And their expectations were justified: breaking through the support at 109.00, the pair went further south. True, it did not reach the second goal, and the local bottom was recorded at 108.56.
The yen was supported by the decline in US bond yields and commodity prices for almost the entire week. Perhaps the pair could go down further, but the rise in oil prices and treasuries yields brought it back to the horizon of 109.00, next to which, at the level of 108.93, it completed the trading session;

- cryptocurrencies. The bullish rally that began in autumn 2020 caused many investors to have a state of euphoria. Having decided that digital assets will grow forever, they forgot that the crypto market is not just volatile, but super-volatile. And that just a small shock is enough to cause its serious fluctuations. And what if there are several such shocks, and they are strong enough? In this case, as with an earthquake, panic immediately arises, and the tsunami wave literally flushes off the market all positions opened using leverage.
The crypto market experienced three such serious earthquakes in the first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk.
Tesla first announced the end of the sale of its electric vehicles for bitcoins, explaining this with concern for the environment. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining. The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we are not going to stay away from solving environmental problems, ”- its press release said.
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now.
The third panic hit the crypto market after Chinese financial institutions were banned from providing services related to digital assets. A corresponding statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value, their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law".
The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed solidarity with the Chinese authorities, criticizing cryptocurrencies, saying that they pose risks to financial stability, and pointing out that their stricter regulation may be required. In parallel, the US Treasury Department came up with a proposal, according to which information on cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 should necessarily be reported to the tax service.
As a reminder, bitcoin hit an all-time high at $64,600 on April 14. And now, just five weeks later, on May 19, it fell to $30,225, losing 53%. (For Ethereum, these numbers were, respectively, $4,364, $1,927 and 56%). Then the market seemed to be on the mend, and the BTC/USD pair climbed to $42.285. However, there was another reversal on Friday, May 21, and it dropped to the level of $33,550 by the evening of the same day.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a 12-month low on May 20 at just 11 points. By the very end of the working week, May 21, it also grew slightly, up to 19 points, and is now in the "Extreme Fear" zone. According to the index developers, such values indicate that the market is still in a strong panic, and that, possibly, its growth will begin after some time.
It is clear that the panic sell-off has affected not only bitcoin, but the entire crypto market as a whole. If on May 12 its total volume was $ 2.54 trillion, then after only seven days, on May 19, this figure fell to $1.43 trillion. It was at the same level on the evening of Friday 21 May.
Concluding the review of the past week, it will be useful to add a little optimism to this negativity. After all, in addition to those who lost their money, there are those who made big profits on the collapse of prices. According to the itsblockchain portal, one of the whales sold 3,000 BTC on May 9 at an average price of $58,500 and bought 3,521 BTC at an average price of $44,500 from May 15 to May 19. Thus, the profit of this investor was $18.7 million, and at the same time they increased their holdings by 521 BTC. And it is appropriate to remind here that the NordFX brokerage company offers its clients the opportunity to earn not only on the growth, but also on the fall of the market. At the same time, it is enough to have just $150 on the account to open both a long and a short position with a volume of 1 BTC. (Tthis figure is 10 times lower for 1 ETH and equals $15).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the spring of 2020 the determining factor was the fall of the economy under the blows of coronavirus, a year later everything turned 180 degrees. And now the main driver of the markets has become reflation, that is, the recovery of the economy due to its active stimulation.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indices update historical highs over and over again. And investors, despite the overheating of the stock market, sell dollars over and over again in order to buy back sinking stocks and other risky assets.
Starting March 30, 2021, the DXY dollar index tends to go down, while the EUR/USD pair goes up.  And although Fed officials say that discussions on the possibility of curtailing QE may begin as early as June, this may strengthen the dollar only in the short term. The weakness of recent macro statistics is unlikely to allow the regulator to deprive the US economy of financial support. And if any concrete steps are taken, it is unlikely to happen until the end of this year.
Of course, no one questions the stable recovery of the US economy. However, this process has recently slowed down noticeably. So, perhaps, it will be Europe that will become an example of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures in many EU countries suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. And now, an attack by the hawks can be expected at the June meeting of the ECB.
The European economy is export oriented. Therefore, the Joe Biden administration can also seriously help it by lowering import tariffs imposed by the previous US President Donald Trump. 
All this suggests that the bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair may continue. 70% of experts agree with this forecast, indicating this year's high of 1.2350 as a target. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2245 and 1.2300. In the longer term, we can talk about the growth of the pair to the height of 1.2550.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the overbought US stock market should lead to a large-scale correction, as a result of which the pair will break through the support of 1.2160, first drop to the level of 1.2050, and then reach support in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone.
Graphical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair will stay in the 1.2160-1.2245 trading range for some time, after which it will go south. There is some confusion among the technical indicators on H4. But their readings are more definite on D1: 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored green.
In terms of macro statistics, Thursday, May 27 seems to be the most interesting. We will find out the volumes of orders for durable goods, as well as data on US GDP on that day;

- GBP/USD. With improved weather conditions, May is likely to have good spending and business performance in the UK. In addition, the country's government is actively lifting the remaining quarantine restrictions, planning to remove all of them on June 21. All this may lead to the fact that the bulls will still achieve their goal, and the GBP/USD pair will renew the 36-month high at 1.4241. 65% of analysts agree with this forecast, supported by 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
True, graphical analysis predicts a fall for the pound in the first ten days of June. The remaining 35% of the experts are also expecting a correction to the south. Support levels 1.4100, 1.4075 and 1.4000

- USD/JPY. Japan's low CPI (consumer price index), which was released on Thursday May 20, showed that real yields there significantly outperform yields elsewhere. And this is despite the serious weakening of the yen during the first quarter of this year.
The strong pressure on the yen as a safe haven currency is exerted by global reflation, as well as by the growth of yields on long-term government securities of other countries, especially the United States. For comparison, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is 0.25%, while the yield on similar US bonds is 1.63%.  
On the other hand, the yen's purchasing power and the resistance of the Japanese economy to rising prices and inflation speaks in favor of the yen. Published data on the PPI showed that the actual yield on Japanese bonds in April was positive, while their US counterparts, thanks to the Fed's printing press, are sinking deeper below zero.  
Like the four previous weeks, the majority of experts (this time they are 75%) believe that the weakening of the yen has gone too far and it should continue to win back the lost positions from the dollar. Although expectations in this case are quite modest: the targets are the levels 108.55, 108.30 and 108.00. And the support at 107.50 is seen as a very distant target. The remaining 25% of experts expect the pair to return to the 110.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 109.35.
The indicators on H4 look rather mixed, there is a slight advantage (60%) for the bears on D1. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a sideways movement of the pair in the 108.30-110.00 channel;
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- cryptocurrencies. After such a collapse, as one would expect, interested influencers rushed together to calm and convince the crypto community that not everything is so scary, and the best is yet to come.
LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. He noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then.
Lark Davis is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year. “You should look broader,” he advises. - The current bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."
Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, when many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, long-term investors continued to increase their investments. For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.
Despite the collapse, Ark Invest fund manager Katie Wood reiterated her outlook for bitcoin. In an interview with Bloomberg, she said that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 in the future. Katie Wood believes that the fall in the price of BTC was due to too strong emotions, which, as a rule, are not related to fundamental factors. At the same time, she still sees a certain connection with the fact that the most volatile and innovative part of the stock market has undergone a significant correction.
A fly in the ointment is Katie Wood's statement that, despite a fall of more than 50%, the price of bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
As for the main altcoin, there are enough bullish forecasts here as well. For example, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in Ethereum quotes to $5,000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.
And at the end of the review, our mini heading of crypto life hacks. This time, about how you can make money on the negative statements of eminent newsmakers.
Outraged by the mentioned tweets of Elon Musk, crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. According to their statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. FUCKELON is based on the Binance Smart Chain and has over 9,000 wallets already. And most importantly, the coin has already risen in price by 2000% and is trading at $0.005260 at the time of writing.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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