HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

Date: 26th July 2024.

The Yen Soars as the Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike Rises!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

* The Japanese Yen wins back some lost ground as global Central Banks edge closer to rate cuts.
* The probability of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan increases.
* July’s best performing currencies are the Japanese Yen (+4.35%), British Pound (+1.41%) and the Swiss Franc (+1.41%).
* Currencies are taking advantage of the weaker US Dollar, but the worst performing currency remains the New Zealand Dollar.

USDJPY – Growing Likelihood of a Second BoJ Rate Hike!

The USDJPY increases in value for a third consecutive week and for a fourth consecutive day. Three factors are contributing to the Dollar decline: The Fed’s upcoming interest cut, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike and the political uncertainty in the US. The day’s best performing currency is the Japanese Yen which is currently increasing in value against all currencies.

Currently, the USDJPY is trading below the trend-line and below the 100-Period SMA which indicates in the medium-term sellers are controlling the price actions. The exchange rate is also below the neutral on all oscillators and forms a clear bearish trend price pattern. Currently the only indications pointing towards a loss of bearish momentum is the diversion formed on the RSI. As a result, even though the trend clearly forms downwards, investors need to be cautious of a potential retracement. If the price trades above 152.96, a larger retracement becomes likely. However, if the price falls below 152.015, momentum will indicate the continuation of the downward trend to 151.674 in the short term and 151.267 thereafter.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Japanese regulator is growing. Preliminary data for July showed an increase in business activity, indicating a recovery in the national economy. The consumer price index remains above the target level, reaching 2.8% in June, with the core indicator stabilizing around 2.6%. Officials are optimistic about maintaining these high levels, supported by significant wage increases.

According to Reuters, Bank of Japan officials will discuss the possibility of raising the interest rate at their meeting on July 31st. Analysts do not expect active measures until after the summer months. However, investors will price in the adjustment before the decision takes place.

The US Fed experts may turn to “dovish” rhetoric in September, which puts pressure on the dollar. Currently, inflation is slowing growth, business activity is declining, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling.

The US PMI data from yesterday largely triggered an attempted bullish correction but was viewed as mixed. The price action of the US Dollar and the USDJPY will now largely depend on the Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims. These will be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US economy to grow 2.0%. If the US GDP reading is lower than expectations, the US Dollar potentially can come under pressure. At the same time, weaker earnings data from the US can trigger higher demand for the Japanese Yen. The Yen is known as a safe haven currency alternative to the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th July 2024.

Market News – AI mania over? Stocks, Gold & oil dip; Yen Surges.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Wall Street plunged and Treasuries bear steepened in an anxious trade.
* News that ex-Fed president Dudley was now calling for the FOMC to cut rates next week amid recession fears added to investor angst.
* European stock markets continued to decline alongside Asian equity futures, intensifying a global downturn in technology shares following US session, as investors are pulling back on the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market this year.
* Traders moved away from megacaps to underperforming segments of the market, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and doubts about AI’s immediate payoff.
* Nasdaq experienced its largest single-day drop since 2022, while S&P 500 breaks Its longest run without a 2% drop since 2007.
* The Canadian Dollar dropped as the Bank of Canada cut rates, emphasizing “downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations.”
* The Japanese Yen reached its highest level since May as carry trades unwound.
* Key events today: Germany IFO business climate, US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods.

Asian & European Open:

* Tech led the slump with the NASDAQ dropping -3.64%, the biggest 1-day selloff since March 2020. The S&P500 fell -2.31%. The Dow dropped -1.25%. Disappointing news from Alphabet and Tesla after the bell Tuesday got the bears going and rising concerns over the staying power of AI trades exacerbated declines through the day.
* In Japan, Nikkei entered a technical correction while the broad Topix index, which had reached a record high earlier this month, plunged over 2.5%, erasing its July gains and hitting a five-week low.
* Earning: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to report results next week.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex tumbled to 104.12 in morning action, down from Tuesday’s 104.45, but rallied back slightly to close at 104.37.
* The Yen holds strong thanks to expectations for a BoJ rate hike next Wednesday, with USDJPY breaching 200-day EMA. The USD firmed versus CAD after the BoC’s dovish cut. The USDCAD reached April’s peak at 1.3827.
* Oil prices declined, but are once again trying to stabilize, following API data showing that US crude inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week. Inventories have declined for four straight weeks now. However, weak growth in top importer China and renewed optimism of a ceasefire in the Middle East have kept supply expectations underpinned. WTI is currently trading at USD 77.38 per barrel, Brent at USD 81.49 as markets wait for the official U.S. inventory report.
* Gold is down to $2370 to a two-week low. The downfall could be attributed to some technical selling, though it is expected to be limited, considering the fundamentals, such as Fed’s cut and the risk-off mood which could support Gold ahead of the US data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks dip as earnings disappoint; Yen strengthens further.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The market faces pressure entering a seasonally weak period, with potential increased volatility due to the upcoming US presidential election.
* Asian stocks and US stock futures also fell, impacted by earnings reports from large American firms like Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc., which were seen as insufficient to sustain the recent global equity rally.
* European stock futures declined as investors evaluated the disappointing initial results from the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech companies.
* The Yen strengthened for the third consecutive day ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Asian & European Open:

* The S&P500 and Dow slipped -0.16% and -0.14%, respectively, and the NASDAQ slid -0.06%. The VIX was down -1.74% to 14.65 and has eased from the 16.52 level on Friday, the highest since April amid rising political risks and anxieties.
* Taiwan’s stock market was closed due to Typhoon Gaemi, meaning shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. did not trade.
* Alphabet shares fell after the company indicated that it would take time to see tangible results from its AI investments.
* Tesla shares dropped as much as 7% following a profit miss and a delay in its Robotaxi event to October. Many of Tesla’s suppliers and electric vehicle peers in Asia also saw declines.
* Deutsche Bank AG reported its first quarterly loss in 4 years due to a slowdown in trading and a charge related to a legacy issue at its Postbank retail unit.
* BNP Paribas SA’s profit increased in the second quarter, driven by a surge in equities trading revenue.
* United Parcel Service Inc. experienced its worst drop ever following a profit miss.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex had found its footing, firming to 104.25 versus 103.90 on Monday.
* The Yen appreciated beyond 155  for the first time since early June as traders anticipated a potential interest rate hike from the BOJ in the coming months, if not at next week’s meeting. According to a Bloomberg survey, around 30% of BOJ watchers expect a rate hike on July 31, but over 90% believe there is a risk of such a move.
* The NZDUSD dropped at 0.5900 to its lowest level in nearly 3 months as lower bond yields discouraged carry trade investors.
* Oil fell -1.45% to $77.26, though managed to edge up from the $76.40 session low. It is a 4th straight decline from $82.85 Wednesday and the weakest since mid-June. Most of week’s selling was on technicals after penetrating 50- and 100-day MA.
* Gold is up to $2418 per ounce. It was at an all-time closing peak of $2469.08 on July 16 amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, US political risks, and the drop in the US Dollar. Of note, India lowered its import duty on gold to 6% from 15% which should support jewelry manufacturing. India is next only to China in terms of consumer demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd July 2024.

Market News – Uncertainty remains the bane of the markets!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* President Biden announced he is withdrawing from the re-election campaign. In a subsequent comment, he stated his support for Kamala Harris. He will address the nation later this week. This throws the Democrat party into more disarray as it heads into its convention from August 19-22.
* These uncertainties will further shake up the markets when trading opens.
* For weeks, investors have speculated about an increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the November election, especially after Biden’s underwhelming debate performance. Now, with Biden exiting the race, investors are reconsidering their strategies regarding a potential Trump victory.
* China’s PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by -10 bps to 1.70% from 1.80% in a surprise move coming out of the Third Plenum.
* Earnings: Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will kick off earnings reports for the “Magnificent Seven” on Tuesday, while major European banks are set to report their earnings this week as well. Analysts will be watching to see if the benefits from higher interest rates are diminishing and how recent political developments are impacting market sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* It is a cautious, choppy start to trading in the wake of the news. This negative start to the week mirrored the losses seen on Wall Street on Friday, as businesses globally dealt with a major technology outage.
* Asian stock markets mostly fell after President Joe Biden’s announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has rallied 0.82% but the Nikkei is down -1.3% amid the fallout from Friday’s slump on Wall Street.
* US futures remained relatively stable while European stock futures are higher.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has traded narrowly, but initially dropped to 103.90 versus Friday’s close at 104.396. It is mixed against its G10 peers.
* USDCNY has been jumpy, impacted both by the PBoC’s news as well as the Biden news earlier. The buck rose to 7.2737 in early action before sliding to 7.2706. It has edged back to 7.2730.
* Metals showed mixed results following their worst weekly decline in nearly two years, with a rate cut in China helping to stabilize the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th July 2024.

Global Stocks Tumble as Risk Appetite Plummets!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
US ECONOMY

* The NASDAQ declines for a third straight day and fell to its lowest level for July.
* Netflix Quarterly Earnings Report unable to support US indices. The Dow Jones loses momentum after 6 straight bullish days.
* The US Dollar Index attempts to regain losses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays
* The British Pound comes under pressure from the decline in Retail Sales. However, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be the worst performing currency.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar is losing momentum for two reasons. The first is that the exchange rate is largely being driven by the Dollar which has risen in value across the board. The US Dollar Index is attempting to regain loses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays open. This is partially due to the lower price but also the lower investor sentiment as stocks falls over the past 3 trading days.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The second reason is the poor economic data from the UK which is likely to pressure the Bank of England to adjust interest rates at the next meeting. According to economists a 25-basis point cut at the next meeting is not yet certain. However, a cut will take place either on the 1st of August or September 19th unless something drastic changes. The poor data includes the number of new unemployed individuals which has considerably risen over the past 2 months. This morning, the UK government also confirmed Retail Sales has fallen 1.2% which is double the decline previously expected.

For the US, weekly employment data was released yesterday: the number of Unemployment claims rose by 243,000, exceeding both the forecast of 229,000 and the previous figure of 223,000. Additionally, the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, raising the likelihood of interest rate adjustments in September. According to most analysts, the rate cut for September is fully priced in at around 103.20 for as long as other central banks also adjust.

The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published this week, indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, but businesses expect a slowdown over the next six months due to the US election campaign and consumers struggling with prices. However, the lower risk appetite is triggering higher demand for the Dollar over the past 48 hours. It’s vital investors continue to monitor the US Dollar Index while analysing the GBPUSD.

The price of the exchange is now trading below the 75-Period EMA and below the 50.00 on the RSI. This indicates low sentiment towards the Pound and bearish control for the time being. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a sell signal will arise at the 1.29290 price whereas the breakout level indicates 1.29261. however, if the price rises above 1.29400 or the trendline, short-term sell signals become unlikely.

USA100

The price of the NASDAQ has now fallen for 3 consecutive days but did see less downward momentum compared to Wednesday’s collapse. The index has now fully corrected the gains for the first 2 weeks of the month and is trading close to the previous support level. However, as previously mentioned, due to the higher economic risk, investors will most likely need strong earnings data to be tempted to purchase the discount unless the price becomes even more favourable.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The price of Bond Yields has risen during this morning’s Asian session and the VIX is also trading slightly higher. The VIX this week has already added almost 10% which indicates a significant decline in risk appetite. In addition to this, the poor data from the rest of the world’s leading economies can also damage sentiment towards stocks. Currently the biggest indication for short term upward price movement is the lower price and potential upcoming earnings data.

Netflix has released their earnings report overnight. The company’s earnings read 2.40% higher than expectations at $4.88 and revenue was 3 million higher than expectations. However, the stock is yet to see any major volatility or support. Currently the stock trades 0.18% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th July 2024.

Escalating Tariffs on China Spark a Major Selloff in Tech Stocks!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* Investors expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at 4.25%.
* US confirms new sanctions against China primarily aimed at semiconductors applying significant pressure on Tech Stocks.
* The NASDAQ trades more than 4% lower than its recent highs. Investors reduce their involvement in growth stocks as top economists predict a decline in consumer demand.
* The top 10 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ fell an average of 3.97% on Wednesday. Netflix due to release their earnings report today after market close.

USA100 – Tariffs Intensify Against China Triggering A Tech-Stocks Selloff!

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ fell a total of 2.82% and is trading 4.25% lower than its recent highs. The reason behind the quick selloff is twofold. At first the NASDAQ saw lower demand as leading bankers and economists signalled weaker consumer demand from the lower income portion of the economy. The second is the United States decision to intensify sanctions on chips being sold to China. As a result, the semiconductor sector took a big hit and had a domino effect on the rest of the technology market.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The Semiconductor selloff seen yesterday was the biggest in four years, but investors also should note that at some point a lower price can trigger investors to buy the dip. Though the question remains as to when that is likely to happen.  After the market close, in after trading hours, most of the semiconductor sector rose in value, but still remain significantly lower than the open price.

Investor willingness to purchase the dip will also depend on earnings data which will start this evening. Netflix is due to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to rise from $4.54 to $4.76 and for revenue to increase by 25 million. Netflix’s stock fell less than other components during yesterday’s decline which can be perceived as a positive. However, the price action will depend on tonight’s reports.

Investors are only likely to enter at the discounted price if earnings data from the most influential companies beat expectations and cool down concern over consumer demand. The most influential day for earnings will be next Tuesday where Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Tesla and Visa release their reports. Whereas, if earnings are not able to increase demand, the sanctions imposed have the ability to reduce sentiment towards the sector for a prolonged period.

Currently, the price of the NASDAQ trades lower than most Moving Averages and lower than the neutral on the RSI. However, the price is retracing upwards. Therefore, investors will monitor whether the price will attempt a correction or decline further. If the price falls below $19,879.33, momentum indicators are likely to signal a decline, whereas above $20,100 will bring the price above the trend line which can indicate an attempted correction to $20,405.

EURGBP – UK Adds High Number Of Unemployment Claims!

The price of the EURGBP increased in value after the UK’s Claimant Claims rose by 32,300, almost 10,000 more than analysts’ expectations. Over the past two months the UK has added 82,600 more unemployed individuals. As a result, the Bank of England may be more tempted to decrease interest rates at the next meeting but according to analysts this is not yet certain.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Nonetheless, the price has increased 0.11% and risen above the 75-Period Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. If the price rises above 0.84145, the exchange rate potentially will maintain a buy signal. This will also depend on today’s ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 4.25% but are hoping for guidance on when the next cut is likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th July 2024.

Gold Hits New All-Time High as Investors Flee the Dollar!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* Gold reaches an all-time high as investors look to mitigate away from political risk and a potential economic slowdown.
* UK inflation remains unchanged whereas analysts previously expected a 0.1% decline.
* Economists contemplate whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting.
* All US indices increase in value bar the NASDAQ which fell 0.18%. The SNP500 rises 0.64% and the Dow Jones 1.85%.

XAUUSD – Gold Rises To All-Time High!

Gold rises to an all-time high after increasing in value by almost 2% on Tuesday. Investors are turning to Gold in an attempt to mitigate political risk, interest rate adjustments and also the possibility of weaker economic growth. Weaker economic growth has been mentioned by leading economists over the past week which is prompting higher gold demand.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

However, the price of Gold did witness an overbought signal on the RSI for the first time this week at $2,472.85 and soon after fell 0.45%. Here we can see how the RSI assisted traders with determining that Gold may have stretched too far. Currently, as the price retraces lower, the price is no longer overbought and still continues to maintain buy signals on the 2-hour timeframe. Though investors will look for bullish momentum to build before speculating in favor for the trend. For example, if breakout signals can be seen at $2,470.95 and $2,472.70 or Fibonacci retracement signals a buy indication at $2,475.00.

A positive factor for Gold is the decline in the US Dollar which currently is trading 0.08% lower this morning. Though, investors would prefer the decline to gain momentum. In addition to this, the pricing of interest rate adjustments is also supporting the value of Gold. According to the CME Exchange, there is a 93% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 7% chance of a 50-basis point cut for September.

A large portion of the demand for Gold in 2024 derives from China and is largely the reason why gold has surged more than 21% so far this year. China will suspend gold supplies, but experts believe the government will continue to import without reporting it. It may indicate an intention to purchase more gold than before, following the trend set by global central banks, which are actively replenishing their reserves. Thus, the National Bank of Poland increased gold volumes by 4.0 tons in June. Additionally, the National Bank of India purchased 9.0 tons, and now the country’s reserves amount to 841.0 tons. Regardless of this, lower interest rates can support Gold and short-term traders will focus on the trend and technical analysis.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Remains Sticky!

The price of GBPUSD has increased in value after the UK inflation remained at 2.00% instead of declining to 1.9%. As a result, economists are contemplating whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting. Previously, investors were leaning more towards a cut in August. Currently investors monitoring price action are evaluating whether the price will rise above the most recent resistance level which has formed a double top.

The price of the US Dollar will also be detrimental to the price movement of the exchange. Currently, the US Dollar Index has fallen 0.12% so far this morning. Throughout the day the Building Permits and Industrial Production will influence the price of the US Dollar. The GBP will now turn its attention to the release of the UK’s Claimant Claims Change and Average Earnings Index.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th July 2024.

Pound Leads Currencies This Month Despite Upcoming Rate Cut!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* The Pound continues to be the month’s best performing currency and attempts to break resistance levels as the currency rises close to a 12-month high.
* Goldman Sachs beats earnings and revenue expectations boosting banking stocks. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo stocks increase.
* The Dow Jones outperforms the NASDAQ and SNP500 on Monday. Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar were the best performers.
* Federal Reserve Chairman advises economic growth likely to slow and employment to become more balanced.

GBPUSD – Economists Expect The UK Economy To Perform Better Than Previous Expectations.

The GBPUSD, after increasing in value for 2 consecutive weeks, finds itself close to a 12-month high and closer to its traditional value prior to COVID and PM Truss. The British Pound has been the best performing currency of July and has risen in value against all major currencies. The US Dollar has been one of the worst performing, but traders may also benefit from glancing at the weakest which currently are the NZD and JPY.

Technical analysis in recent days has been pointing towards an upward trend as the price trades above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. Fundamental analysis is also supporting a weaker Dollar as a rate cut becomes certain for September 2024.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Though, the price over the past two trading days has struggled to increase above the 1.29897 resistance level. The exchange rate has failed to break this level on 3 attempts and mainly formed a psychological price for investors. However, this will largely depend on today’s US Retail Sales and tomorrow’s UK inflation rate.

Analysts believe the UK inflation rate will fall from 2.00% to 1.9%, which is below the Bank of England’s target. Nevertheless, the regulator will be happy to allow inflation to fall slightly below due to the cost-of-living crisis of the past 3 years. The Bank of England’s rate decision will take place on August 1st, and an interest rate cut will become more likely if inflation falls to 1.9%. Currently, most economists expect a rate adjustment.

A rate cut traditionally is bad for the currency, however, it can make the economy more attractive for foreign investors. However, investors should note, currency traders will simultaneously price in a cut from the Fed. The Chicago Exchange for the first time fully prices in a rate cut for September.

For the US Dollar, the latest developments continue to point towards slower economic growth and unemployment rising slightly higher. Yesterday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index again read lower than expectations. In addition to this, Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, also reaffirmed this is also the Central Bank’s expectations. Whereas the analysts expect the UK economy to rebound faster than previous years. Analysts also note that the US Bond Yields trade 24-points lower, which is known to be negative for the Dollar.

Therefore, many fundamental factors also indicate a GBPUSD bullish trend. However, in the short-term technical analysis will be key. Traders may opt to keep buy trades short term unless strong momentum indicates a break above the key resistance level which is close. However, if a retracement is to continue, price action points towards the retracement falling down to 1.29238.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Outperforms All Indices!

The Dow Jones, which traditionally is less prone to trends, was the best performing index on Monday. Yesterday, it rose to an all-time high after increasing for 3 consecutive weeks. The bullish trend has partially been due to the market pricing in an interest rate cut for September but also earnings data from the banking sector.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Goldman Sachs is the latest bank to release their quarterly earnings report. The bank’s earnings were slightly higher than previous expectations, but lower than the previous quarter. Revenue beat Wall Street’s expectations by 2.89%. As a result, stocks from the banking sector rose in value helping the bullish trend of the Dow Jones.

However, investors are concerned regarding comments from key economists and the Fed’s Chairman. The recent forward guidance is lower economic growth and higher unemployment. This can be concerning for the stock market if economic data weakens, and leading companies provide similar guidance. Another concern is that only 55% of the Dow Jones’s 30 stocks rose in value. Though, the 55% that rose saw stronger volatility.

Today UnitedHealth Group will release their earnings report. Currently, analysts believe the earnings will more or less be similar to the previous quarter. UnitedHealth Group is the index’s most influential stock and is likely to create volatility. However, this may also potentially be a retracement, not necessarily a guaranteed upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th July 2024.

US Stocks Surge Amid Banking Sector Concerns Over Consumer Demand!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* US Banks beat earnings expectations but warn of financial stress amongst lower and middle-income consumers over the upcoming months.
* Producer Inflation unexpectedly remains high, but investors opt to take advantage of the lower price.
* Political experts advise Trump’s chances of winning this year’s elections are significantly higher after the recent assassination attempt.
* All currencies indexes decline as the US Dollar attempts to win back some lost ground.

USA100 – Large US Banks Voice Caution As Consumer Demand Falls!

The NASDAQ rose on Friday despite the US inflation data reading higher than what investors would have preferred. According to analysts, investors preferred to take advantage of the lower purchase price and Thursday’s 2.20% decline. Investors potentially may still look to increase exposure in stocks and indices to price in a rate cut and strong earnings data.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The Producer Price Index read 0.2% vs 0.1% expectation. Though investors were concerned that the Core Producer Price Index was more than double previous expectations. However, the positive news is that the US inflation rate fell from 3.3% to 3.0%, the lowest since June 2023. Today investors will focus on the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index which could benefit from a slightly higher reading. In addition to this, the Fed Chairman will speak at 16:00 GMT which may also trigger volatility depending on comments.

None of the earnings reports released Friday were part of the NASDAQ index, but they surely grabbed investors’ attention. JP Morgan, CitiGroup and Wells Fargo all beat earnings and revenue expectations, however, all stocks depreciated in the session that followed. Particularly Wells Fargo which fell more 6.00%.

The main cause was the forward guidance given by all 3 banks regarding the economic conditions in the upcoming months ahead of the elections. Profits at Citi’s US consumer lending division, which encompasses credit cards, plummeted by 74% compared to last year. The bank’s chief financial officer, Mark Mason, noted that consumer spending is generally declining, with account balances now falling below pre-Covid levels. In addition to this, JP advises lower income consumers are likely to struggle over the next 3-4 months.

Nonetheless, in terms of technical analysis, the price of the NASDAQ is again trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades above the 50.00 level which indicates buyers are regaining control of the market. Buy signals are likely to strengthen as the price crosses above the $20,471.10 and $20,552.77 levels.

EURUSD – The Dollar Gains As The Exchange Rate Rises To Previous Resistance Level!

The EURUSD currently trades with an extremely low spread and a bearish price gap. The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.15% higher while the Euro Index is 0.16% lower. However, on the medium-term timeframe the Euro is witnessing significant gains against the Dollar after rising for 3 consecutive weeks. However, this has brought the exchange rate to the previous resistance level of the price range. Therefore, technical analysts are considering whether this may be the point where the EURUSD retraces lower.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Currently, the support and breakout level can be seen at 1.08823 and if the price falls below this level potentially can prompt a short-term sell signal. A short-term sell signal potentially can indicate a decline to the 1.08667 level. The Empire State Manufacturing Index this afternoon potentially can support momentum to form a breakout if the index reads higher than current expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th July 2024.

Market News – The Aftermaths of Inflation.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries surged after a much cooler than expected CPI report that saw Fed funds futures price in a -25 bp rate cut for September, more than 2 quarter point moves over the rest of the year, and 3 cuts by the end of Q1 2025.
* Australian and New Zealand government bonds rallied, taking cues from their US counterparts.
* European stocks open muted, following a sharp decline in Asian equities driven by a significant drop in technology stocks. Despite this recent downturn, global stocks are on track for their 6th consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since March, buoyed by expectations of Fed easing which have supported overall risk sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street was not as enthused, although it’s coming off of prior strong gains. The NASDAQ slumped -1.95% and the S&P500 slid -0.88% to 5584. Cash fled some of the safety of the mag 7. The Dow was up 0.08%.
* Disappointing earnings from Delta and PepsiCo weighed heavily.
* The Euro Stoxx 50 futures showed minimal change, mirroring the stability seen in US stock futures after a tech-driven selloff on Thursday.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex took it on the chin, falling to 104.07 from the high of 104.99 on the dovish Fed outlook.
* A lot of the weakness came from JPY as USDJPY crashed 4-handles, as there were reports of intervention. The Bank of Japan conducted rate checks with traders, reinforcing the belief that authorities had intervened in the market on Thursday to support the currency.
* Oil prices rallied for a 3rd day in a row boosted by the US inflation which cooled broadly in June to the slowest pace since 2021. Bets rose that the Fed will start to reduce borrowing costs this quarter.
* Gold corrects some of yesterday’s gains, back to 2400.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th July 2024.

Stocks Rise as Analysts Predict Inflation Will Drop to a 5-Month Low.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* NASDAQ’s most influential stocks witness significant gains on Wednesday including Apple +1.88%, Microsoft +1.46% and Alphabet +1.17%.
* Investors fix their attention on today’s US Inflation rate which analysts expect to fall from 3.3% to 3.1%. Markets predict US Core Inflation to remain at 3.4%.
* KeyBanc Capital Markets raised NVIDIA’s target price from $130 to $180, maintaining the overweight rating.
* Gold increases in value ahead of today’s inflation data and outperforms all currencies.

USA100 (NASDAQ) – Stocks Rise Ahead Of Today’s Inflation Reading!

The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as investors price in a rate cut for September. On Wednesday, the price of the index rose 1.05%, but the bullish price movement will depend on today’s inflation reading. Investors are anticipating a decrease in inflation, but if this expectation is not met, it could result in downward pressure. However, if inflation does decline to 3.1% or lower shareholders are less likely to sell shares ahead of earnings season. As a result, the bullish trend is potentially likely to continue.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The September cut scenario has become the main outcome due to the rise in unemployment and the change in the tone of the Federal Reserve. Earlier this week the Fed Chairman said the employment sector is showing signs of weakening while yesterday the Fed Governor advised inflation will reach the target without the Unemployment Rate rising much further. The lower interest rates support the economy but also makes bonds and the US Dollar less attractive.

Only 25% of the NASDAQ’s 100 stocks declined on Wednesday which applied minimal pressure. The bullish price movement was largely driven by the top 8 most influential stocks which all rose in value. These 8 stocks make up 49.08% of the whole index. The only stocks which applied minor pressure were Netflix which fell 1.18% and Intuit, down 2.70%. The two stocks hold a weight of 3.08%.

One of the stocks which have significantly supported the NASDAQ in 2023 and 2024 so far is NVIDIA. According to leading analysts, the company’s quarterly report is set slightly later than its main competitors. This could provide an advantage and an opportunity to improve its performance. KeyBanc Capital Markets have raised the target price from $130 to $180. They attribute this to higher-than-expected demand for GB200 graphics processors, particularly the more expensive NVL72 configuration, which is gaining more interest compared to the previously popular NVL36. Wolfe Research LLC has also adjusted its price target from $125 to $150.

Currently the price is trading within a symmetrical triangle meaning the price shows a lower high but a higher low. Volatility is likely to remain minimal until the US Consumer Price Index. If the Consumer Price Index reads as expected and the price increases, traders should be cautious that profits are not hit, and the price retraces. In the medium to longer term, the price remains above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. This indicates buyers are controlling the market. Based on price action, buy signals are likely to materialize again if the price rises above $20,697.40.
XAUUSD – Gold Gains Momentum, Capitalizing on the Weaker Dollar!

The price of Gold has benefited from the lower price of the US Dollar and the pricing of an interest rate cut by September. The commodity is forming higher highs and higher lows, which is a positive sign, but traders should note retracements are quick and large, meaning caution is wise.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Another positive sign is the price of Gold is currently performing better than all other currencies within the market. However, investors will largely be monitoring the US Dollar which is currently declining 0.08%.

A weaker US Dollar has the potential to support the price of gold; however, if inflation falls significantly below current expectations, it may undermine gold’s bullish price action. This is because gold is also used as a hedge against inflation. According to the Fibonacci retracement levels, buy signals will form if the price breaks above the $2,381.62 levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks advance, Kiwi & Dollar dip.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The rising political uncertainties, and the wait for more data to clarify the Fed’s rate cut path, are combining with summer doldrums to keep trading quiet and range bound.

* Fed Chair Powell did not say anything really new in his Senate testimony, as expected. There were a few nuances, though, that further support expectations that the next move will be a cut.
* Financials led the way for the broad index after Chair Powell indicated a re-proposal for Basel III rules would be sent out, giving banks more time and breathing room.
* RBNZ delivers dovish hold, as the comments set the stage for a rate cut later in the year and the NZD weakened as local bonds rallied. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its official cash rate at 5.50%, but signalled that it is inching closer to a rate cut. The statement said “restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1-3 percent target range in the second half of the year.”
* China’s consumer prices saw a slight increase in June, staying close to zero for the 5th month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures hindering economic recovery. Meanwhile, factory-gate prices remained in deflation.
* Japan’s largest banks urged the Bank of Japan to significantly reduce its monthly bond purchases during recent central bank hearings.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street and Treasuries were mixed. The S&P500 advanced 0.10% to 5577, a 6th straight day of gains (the best since the start of the year) and another fresh high, the 36th record for 2024. The NASDAQ was 0.11% firmer at 18,429, also at a new peak, its 26th for the year.
* Japanese stocks advanced, while those in China and Australia declined. Nikkei surged to another record high, approaching 42,000.
* The heavy tilt towards the tech sector has heightened risks if the AI-driven rally stumbles. Valuations are high, and earnings growth is expected to slow, adding uncertainty for investors banking on Big Tech’s continued rise. Citigroup strategists, suggest it might be time to take profits in leading AI stocks, despite strong sentiment and better-than-expected free cash flow projections for these firms.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex declined from 105.208 back to 104.70.
* Oil prices have continued to decline, as Chinese demand and continued uncertainty over the timeline for Fed interest rate cuts outweighed signs of another inventory draw in the US.
* Gold slightly higher at 2372 amid Dollar strength.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks Under Pressure Ahead of Powell.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Trading was nondescript with the markets digesting recent data, including the jobs report, and events including the elections overseas.
* Asian stock markets were supported, however, the positive mood didn’t spill over into Europe, where indexes are mostly lower.
* US futures are finding some buyers but investors are cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony. Powell will be questioned on the prospects for rate cuts.
* Japan: the BoJ will speak face-to-face with market participants over the next couple of days as the bank tries to set a realistic pace for the planned reduction of bond purchases.
* China: investors continue to weigh the bank’s new liquidity operations. The bank is aiming to take greater control over short-term borrowing costs and investors seem to take it like a rate hike, which put pressure on bonds. Markets are also looking ahead to the biggest annual policy meeting, with hopes of additional stimulus measures.

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street was mixed. Strength in big tech rallied the NASDAQ and S&P500, albeit marginally, with gains of 0.28% and 0.10%, respectively. But the gains were enough for more fresh highs, the 25th and 35th of the year.
* Nikkei and Sensex touched fresh all-time highs, after the S&P500 led the way.
Long bonds are also down in Europe and the US, after a drop in yields across key Asian markets.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

The USDIndex softened to a session nadir of 104.80 on broadbased weakness, and especially as GBP and EUR stabilized. But the buck rebounded confidently to 105.09.
Bitcoin steadied but remains below the key $59k level.
Oil remained relatively stable following a 2-day decline, as Hurricane Beryl appeared less likely to cause significant disruptions to Texas’ crude infrastructure. However it’s hovering at the key 81.60 level (repeated resistance in the mid of June).
Gold steadied after experiencing its largest drop in two weeks on Monday, while copper edged lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th July 2024.

Market News – Asian & European Stocks Decline, Bitcoin Falls, and Key Economic Events Ahead

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Asian stocks mostly fell today, along with European and especially French bond markets which sold off modestly, with the Euro dropping on the shock French election outcome.
* Europe: The French leftist alliance is the surprise victor, winning the most seats. This outcome potentially limits the influence of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, both of which support increased public spending.
* Losses in the Euro and European bonds were tempered by the uncertainty still surrounding the structure of the next French government. The key questions for the markets include who the prime minister will be, how effectively they can collaborate with the far left to pass legislation, and crucially, what this will mean for France’s fiscal discipline.
* US: The US Jobs report revealed modest downside payroll surprises via revision and weak civilian jobs data that raised the jobless rate and exacerbated the big household-establishment divergence since late-2023.
* China: The PBOC aimed to gain more control over market interest rates by announcing additional open market operations and tightening the band for short-term rate fluctuations.
Key events: Fed Chair Powell testimony and US inflation data are key events. Earnings reports from major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., are anticipated, along with rate decisions in New Zealand and South Korea.

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th July 2024.

NFP Is Here! How Will Today’s NFP Impact The NASDAQ

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* Labour win UK Elections, receiving an unconditional majority of seats in the House of Commons (410 out of 650).
* The British Pound and FTSE100 increase in value as Labour wins an outright majority.
* The Japanese Yen sharply increases in value as the US Dollar underperforms ahead of the US employment data.
* Investors turn their attention to today’s NFP release and Unemployment Data!

USA100

The NASDAQ quickly increases in value as the Asian Market opens and the US bank holiday ends. Investors now turn their attention to this afternoon’s employment data. This morning the price quickly rose 0.48%, continuing the trend of the past week.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The “bullish” momentum that accelerated throughout the week as positions in the US Dollar weakened is gradually slowing down ahead of today’s release of the June labor market report. This report could influence the US Federal Reserve’s decision on reducing borrowing costs by the end of the year. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and the June meeting minutes were released. The market reacted with a higher risk appetite, even though officials reiterated the need for further evidence of inflation reduction to the target 2.0% before initiating a monetary easing program.

Investors also continue to position themselves for the upcoming earnings data and an interest rate cut in September 2024. An ideal NFP release for the stock market will be a slightly worser reading. For example, NFP to come in as expected but for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.1%. This afternoon’s employment data is likely to trigger significantly higher volatility. However, investors will also be concerned if the price of oil continues to rise as it has over the past 4 weeks. If the NFP data triggers higher oil prices, investors will be cautious that it does not apply upward pressure on US inflation. Analysts expect the NFP to add a further 191,000 employed individuals.

Currently the price is trading at an all-time high and is witnessing buy signals. The price forms a bullish crossover and trades significantly above most moving averages. However, the price is not yet thought to be overpriced based on the RSI. All global indices trade higher, which indicates a strong sentiment towards the equity markets.

Lastly, of the top 5 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 4 are trading higher in pre-trading hours. This includes Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. Currently, NVIDIA trades 0.15% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

Date: 4th July 2024.

Gold and Stocks Rise As Markets Increase Rate Cut Bets For September!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* The NASDAQ and SNP500 increase to new all-time highs despite economic and employment data reading lower than expectations.
* The FOMC continues the previous verbal trend set by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, advising inflation needs to decline further.
* The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility.
* Gold quickly increases as an interest rate cut looks more likely for September.

USA100 – Bad News is Good News for the NASDAQ!

This week, the NASDAQ is the second best-performing index behind the NIKKEI225. The NASDAQ is now trading at its highest price ever and has added more than 23% in 2024. The price is being driven by investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates in September. As a result, the stock has become more attractive and consumer demand potentially can improve.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

This week so far, the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the chairman of the Federal Reserve have indicated that inflation is on the right path. However, the Federal Reserve will need inflation to continue to decline between now and September’s Rate decision. Even with just a 0.1% monthly decline, which would reduce inflation to 3.00%, market pricing indicates that the Federal Reserve will still alter its policy!

The latest data also supports the possibility of frailty within the US economy and growth. The ISM Services PMI fell to its lowest in 2024, the weekly unemployment claims again read higher and the ADP Employment Change fell short. However, the JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations. Therefore, the data pressures the Fed that the economy will soon need support, but simultaneously does not cause panic amongst investors. At the moment, bad news continues to be good news for the stock market. However, the question is if this will continue when tomorrow’s NFP data is released.

Many believe the trend will continue regarding “bad news is good news”. However, most also believe that the ideal release would be slightly poorer than expectations. Analysts currently believe the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.00%, the NFP to add 194,000 new individuals and for salaries to rise 0.3%. Volatility throughout today may be muted due to the US bank holiday, however, volatility potentially can quickly rise as Asian Market’s reopen tomorrow morning!

A positive factor for the NASDAQ continues to be the upcoming earnings data, but also hopes that tensions in the Middle East may subside. Reports confirm that Israel and Hamas may be close to an agreement which will stop the current war, even if only temporarily. If an agreement is reached, the news will be deemed as positive for the stock market and can reduce oil prices. Oil prices this morning have so far fallen 0.35%!

XAUUSD – Gold Benefits From Rate Cute Bets!

Gold’s price rose as the US Dollar became less attractive to investors due to potential lower interest rates in September. The Chicago Exchange Fed Tool confirms a 67% chance of an interest rate cut in September. Previously, there was a 59% possibility, hence a considerable rise which can support Gold. If the possibility continues to rise, investors may increase exposure to Gold. The price of Gold rose 1.15% on Wednesday.

If the employment data is weaker than what analysts are currently expecting, investors potentially may turn to Gold as an alternative. This is due to the commodity’s safe haven nature and its use as a hedge. For example, if the US Unemployment Rate rises to 4.1% and the NFP data reads 180,000, demand for Gold can quickly increase!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Currently the price of Gold is trading lower during this morning’s session, but has not yet formed a lower low. If the price drops to a lower low, the trend indicates a larger retracement or a full correction back to $2,338.65. The smaller timeframes currently point to this scenario, but this will change if the price increases above $2,362.44.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd July 2024.

NASDAQ Eyes All-Time High as Employment Data Eases Investor Concerns.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* The JOLTS Job Openings comes in slightly higher than expectations improving investor sentiment.
* The NASDAQ rises 0.88% after the release of the latest US JOLTS Job Openings.
* Federal Reserve chairman advises inflationary data shows sign of inflation “cooling”. Reuter’s SmartEconomics predicts a Consumer Price Index reading of 0.1% for June.
* Investors turn their attention to the latest employment data and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

USA100 – Employment Data Eases Concerns and Pushes The NASDAQ Close To An All-Time High!

The NASDAQ has risen 1.40% this week as market risk appetite improves, and institutions position themselves for the next earnings season. The NASDAQ has now formed a second higher high and a third higher low. For this reason, technical analysts are pointing towards a potential bullish trend, while economists also advise the NASDAQ is likely to perform well in the second half of the year.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The bulls quickly entered the market during yesterday’s trading session due to the positive employment data. Analysts thought the JOLTS Job Openings data would fall to the lowest since COVID lockdowns, but the figure read 180,000 more vacancies. Investors bought the news as the release confirms that the employment sector has become more “balanced”, remaining strong but simultaneously not strong enough to significantly increase salaries and inflation.

Another positive factor is the comments from the Federal Reserve’s Chairman. Mr Jerome Powell, after some persistently high inflation reports at the start of 2024, said that the data over the past 2 months “do suggest we are getting back on a disinflationary path.” However, economists are also noting that oil prices have risen by 8.40% in June 2024. According to economists, if prices remain around $85 per barrel, inflation potentially can become stickier.

However, even if inflation does become stickier, investors will soon start to turn their attention to the upcoming earnings season. Earnings season will start on Friday 12th July, but will gain momentum on the 17th! When monitoring individual components for the NASDAQ, in Tuesday’s session, 75% of the stocks rose in value and 83% of the most influential stocks rose.

The price of the NASDAQ is currently witnessing buy signals with the price trading comfortably above the 75-bar EMA and the Volume Weighted Average Price. Oscillators are also indicating buyers are controlling the market, but technical analysts are closely monitoring to ensure momentum continues. Breakout levels can be seen at $20,036.03 and $20,045.64. The NASDAQ’s all-time high is at $20,128.31.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Gains Momentum, Investors Focus On Upcoming Economic Data!

The price of the EURUSD during the Asian Session trades significantly lower which is primarily being driven by the US Dollar. However, the EURUSD quickly gains bullish momentum as the European session starts. Simultaneously, the Euro is increasing in value against most currencies and is only struggling against the AUD. US Dollar has largely been driven by positive economic data, but investors also should note dovish comments from the Fed can apply pressure.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

The price of the US Dollar will mainly be influenced by three economic events. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the ISM Services PMI and tonight’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the data reads higher than expectations, the price potentially can rise further.

Currently the EURUSD is trading within a small retracement upwards. Therefore, short term traders will closely monitor when momentum is regained, and a breakout is formed. The closest breakout level currently can be seen at 1.07354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd July 2024.

A Hawkish ECB Advise No Cut for July! European Stocks Fall!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* European stocks unable to hold onto gains and honour the recent resistance levels.
* German inflation declines back to 2.2% as inflation in June eases more than expectations.
* ECB President Lagarde indicates the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged this month to gather more inflation data.
* Oil prices at a 2-month high due to a rise in geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Caribbean Hurricane.

GER40 – A Hawkish ECB Pressures European Stocks!

The German DAX fell during the European session due to the strong price gap which measures 1.04%. As a result, the index still rose by 0.48% by the end of the US trading session. The index is being supported by two factors: The failure of France’s far-right party to win a majority, which increased risk sentiment, and German inflation which read lower than expectations.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

However, the DAX is also slightly under pressure from the ECB President’s comments. Mrs Lagarde said the central bank will pause and not lower rates for the time being. The ECB is looking to obtain 2 months of inflation data before determining whether the risk of inflation is subsiding. If not, further adjustments. This morning, Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB governing council, said the economy is underperforming but the ECB believe it will recover. Philip Lane advises the ECB believes the Eurozone’s inflation will remain at the “mid-twos”. A concern for inflation is the current rise in oil prices which currently is close to a 2-month high and continues to rise in today’s Asian session.

The data supports a further cut in rates, but comments from the ECB don’t correspond with the latest inflation reading. The hawkish comment from the ECB is known to have pressured the DAX, but technical analysis will be key as bullish price movement is still possible. Particularly as German inflation falls back to 2.2%. A key price driver for the day will be the Core CPI Flash Estimates at 09:00 GMT and President Lagarde’s speech at 13:30 GMT.

In terms of technical analysis and signals, the DAX opened on a bearish price gap and has declined a further 0.20%. However, price gaps are normally filled and can trade back into a correction. In addition to this, the price on the 2-hour chart continues to remain above the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. If the price declines below 18,267.31, sell trades can materialize, otherwise, the main signal on the 2-hour chart, remains a bullish trend with large retracements.

EURNZD – The NZD Continues To Be The Worst-Performing Currency!

The best performing currency continues to be the Euro as it was on Monday. The Asian session’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar. On the 2-hour chart, the exchange rate is witnessing strong signals indicating a bullish trend, as seen since June 24th. However, the price on smaller timeframes indicates the asset is about to form a retracement. Therefore, investors should note the volatility despite the clear bullish signals.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

At this point, traders can’t use the breakout level or Fibonacci entry points due to the head and shoulders pattern and the significantly higher price. The asset has risen in value for 5 consecutive days regardless of the latest German inflation reading. One of the key drivers for the Euro is the hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. However, this can lose its importance if today’s inflation estimates read lower than expectations.

If the inflation estimates are lower than expectations and the Euro declines, a signal for a retracement will be triggered at 1.77083. However, a longer-term downward trend is not yet possible unless the exchange rate gains larger bearish momentum. Whereas, if the Eurozone inflation estimates read more than 2.5% and the EURNZD breaks the 1.77442 level, buy signals are again an option.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st July 2024.

French Elections Spark Risk Rally as Far-Right Falls Short!

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* Projections show France’s Far Right Party will lead the first round of parliamentary elections.
* The Euro is the day’s best performing currency, increasing in value by more than 0.40%.
European Indices soar! The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.85% and the DAX 1.00%.
* Investors turn their attention to today’s German Inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to rise 0.2%.

FRA40 (CAC 40) – French Elections Trigger Volatility And “Bottom Fishing”!

By the market close on Friday, the French CAC was almost at its lowest level for 2024. Since Sunday’s elections, all European indices have risen and the French CAC trades 2.65%. Investors have bought the dip triggering a large price gap and a significantly higher price. Nonetheless, the price remains 7.00% lower than the index’s all-time high. The price is being influenced by three major factors; the upcoming earnings data, higher appetite towards stocks and of course the French elections.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Following an exceptionally high voter turnout, the National Rally is leading with 34% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front is in second place with 28%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Alliance has dropped to a disappointing third place with 20%, according to initial estimates. Although the National Rally seems poised to secure the most seats, France could be facing a hung parliament and increased political uncertainty. Even so, technical analysis signals a possible correction upwards, and the market is showing a clear “risk-on” sentiment. The higher risk appetite is due to the far right failing to win a majority.  Bottom fishing refer to investors buying the bottom!

The risk-on sentiment can be seen across the global stock market. All European and US indices are increasing on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 has risen 1.85%, the DAX 1.00%, the SNP500 0.35% and the NASDAQ 0.40%. Some Asian stocks also continue to rise. Lastly, the VIX index trades 1.59% lower which also indicates a higher risk appetite.

In terms of technical analysis, the CAC40 is attempting to establish itself above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 on the RSI. On smaller timeframes, the momentum is also forming bullish crossovers further indicating an increase. The only concern for investors is the resistance level at 7,729.48, which pressured the index last week. If the price forms a breakout above this level, the index will likely see buy signals strengthen. If the price retraces to 7,614.55, traders have the opportunity to trade the upcoming breakout. However, if the price falls below this level, the buy signal will no longer be valid for the time being.

EURUSD – Investors Turn Their Attention To The German Inflation Reading!

The EURUSD continues to trade higher with strong momentum and has broken through the most recent resistance levels. The Euro is the day’s best performing currency with the index trading 0.40% higher, while the US Dollar is the worst performing. The US Dollar Index is trading 0.35% lower today so far.

However, investors should be cautious about the price action seen so far as volatility can quickly change after today’s German inflation data. Analysts expect the German Consumer Price Index to read 0.2%, slightly higher than the previous month. If the inflation reading is lower, the Euro potentially can come under selling pressure. In June, the number of unemployed in Germany rose by 19,000, surpassing the forecast of 14,000, with the unemployment rate reaching 6.0% instead of the expected 5.9%. Experts highlight the weakness of the German labor market, noting that companies remain cautious about hiring new employees, which negatively impacts the country’s economy. However, today’s inflation data will be the main driver along with the French elections and a potential hung parliament.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Technical analysis points towards buyers controlling the market and the exchange rate yet to obtain an “overbought” price. Currently, the RSI trades at 73.00 which means the price can rise a further 0.20% becoming overbought. However, this would depend on momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th June 2024.

Market News – Dollar corrects ahead of the PCE.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The first US presidential debate, as expected, did not significantly impact the markets, and it likely did little to ease concerns regarding the country’s political and economic future. Following the debate, market odds for a Trump win have slightly increased, potentially indicating higher inflation risks.
* This scenario could lead to the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period, keeping US Treasury yields elevated and the Dollar strong.
* The weaker than expected consumption data and claims data inspired a bounce in Treasuries as well after a few days of losses.
* Wall Street managed small gains. 
* UK Q1 GDP growth revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. For the BoE stronger than expected growth, however, will make it more difficult to cut rates as underlying inflation pressures remain higher than officials would like.
* The primary market focus remains on the release of the US core PCE, which is expected to have risen 2.6% annually in May, down from April’s 2.8%. If the data meets forecasts, it could strengthen the belief that the Fed will start its easing cycle in September.
* The first round of French elections is set to begin this Sunday.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Asian & European Open:

* Stocks rose marginally, with some help from a bounce in tech shares. The NASDAQ rallied 0.3%, with the S&P and Dow each up 0.09%.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex gave up the 106 handle after testing 106.082 overnight and dipped to 105.708 before clawing back to 105.931 into the close.
* The US Dollar reached a 10-day high against the Mexican peso and gained strength against other trade-sensitive currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
* The Yen, facing relentless pressure from the US Dollar, surged past the 161 Yen mark, peaking at 161.27, while the Euro also reached a record high against the Japanese currency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th June 2024.

Market News – Asian Declines, Tech Sector Losses and Anticipation for PCE.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Several events are on the calendar which are keeping a cautious tone in the markets:

* Although tonight’s presidential debate is much anticipated, it’s unlikely to impact the markets as it won’t provide any real clues on fiscal or monetary policy.
* Asian shares decline, with US futures amid ongoing losses in the tech sector. Friday’s PCE chain price report has Treasury bulls sidelined for now and the run up in yields is tempering activity on Wall Street. Though expectations are for a benign report, upside surprises in Australia and Canadian CPI are generating some concerns.
* Chinese stocks are headed for a technical correction. The earlier rally that pushed Chinese equities into bull markets this year has been losing momentum due to ongoing concerns about an uneven economic recovery. Investors are now focusing on the Third Plenum, the July meeting historically known for significant economic policy announcements by the Communist Party.

Asian & European Open:

* Wall Street rallied with all three major indexes finishing in the green. A bounce in tech boosted the NASDAQ 0.49%, back to 17,805. The S&P500 was up 0.16% and the Dow edged up 0.04%.
* Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook fell short of the highest forecasts, denting giant tech companies in late Wall Street trading.
* Asian equities declined on Thursday, with Hong Kong experiencing the largest losses as Chinese tech companies and property developers listed in the city fell. Significant contributors to the drop included electric vehicle maker BYD, travel agency Trip.com, and Tencent.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex was a big winner, climbing to a session peak of 106.130 before closing at 106.079, the highest since late April.
* A surge in USDJPY to 160.79, the highest since 1986, supported. Today the Yen recovered by 0.3% against the Dollar, to 160.29.
* Gold and USOIL prices declined, in part on the firmer Dollar. Bullion fell -0.49% to $2298 per ounce and USOIL slipped -0.2% to $80.36 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th June 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Follow US Gains, Inflation Pressures Rise in Australia.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Australia’s CPI surged to 4% in May, up from 3.6% in April, complicating the central bank’s plans for rate cuts. This increase was mainly driven by higher housing and transport costs.
* European stocks followed the upward trend after a volatile Asian session and a rally in US session overnight, with markets awaiting new trading catalysts.
* China’s central bank once again loosened its grip on the Yuan as the currency traded near the lower end of its fixed daily trading band. A Bloomberg survey indicated that China’s export outlook is set to improve, supporting growth in the world’s second-largest economy despite slowing consumer spending.
* Treasuries lost ground with yields ending a few basis points higher as hawkish comments from the Fed’s Bowman combined with risk-on flows into the NASDAQ and a slightly better than expected confidence report weighed on bonds.
* Investors are likely to continue investing in US stocks at any sign of a pullback as the Fed moves closer to reducing interest rates, according to Societe Generale SA, which expects the easing cycle to begin early next year.

Asian & European Open:

* Asia stock indices rose, while Australian stocks declined. US stock futures edged higher in Asia, bolstered by a rebound in Nvidia shares.
* The bounce in Nvidia after its 3-day rout helped lift tech and in turn the NASDAQ and the S&P500. Nvidia climbed 6.8%,following a $430 billion sell-off.   The NASDAQ ended with a 1.26% gain, while the S&P 500 was 0.39% in the green. The Dow dropped -0.76% with a -2.67% plunge in materials leading a broadbased decline.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. surged as Volkswagen AG announced a $5 billion investment to form a joint venture with the electric-vehicle maker.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed but off its 105.78 peak.
* USDJPY held just below the critical 160 per Dollar level, raising concerns about possible market intervention.
* The AUD strengthened to 0.6688 due to faster-than-expected inflation data.
* USOIL held a decline following an industry report indicating a small increase in US crude inventories ahead of official government data.
* Copper fell to its lowest level in over 2 months due to sustained pressure from weak Chinese demand. Gold remained largely unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th June 2024.

Kenya in Turmoil: Youth-Led Protests Shake Economy as Shilling Falls

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Impact on the Kenyan Shilling (KES)

Earlier today, lawmakers in Kenya passed the bill increasing taxes, which now awaits President William Ruto’s assent. The planned tax increases aim to generate an additional $2.3 billion in revenue in the upcoming fiscal year. Ruto intends to reduce the budget deficit from 5.7% of GDP in the current financial year to 3.3% of GDP in the next, as part of efforts to improve Kenya’s fiscal position and comply with an IMF program that requires Nairobi to increase revenue.

The recent youth-led protests against the Kenyan government’s proposed tax increases have had a notable impact on the Kenyan shilling (KES), which has depreciated against the US Dollar. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) previously reported that the shilling had appreciated against the Dollar more than almost any other currency in 2024. However, following the news of police and protester violence, the shilling slipped from trading at approximately $0.0077 to the Dollar.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Background on the Finance Bill

A finance bill is typically presented to parliament before the start of the financial year, which runs from July to June, outlining the government’s fiscal plans. In the 2024/25 bill, the Kenyan government aims to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes to reduce the budget deficit and state borrowing. Kenya’s public debt currently stands at 68% of GDP, surpassing the 55% of GDP recommended by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Facing severe liquidity challenges and uncertainty about its ability to access capital from financial markets, Kenya has turned to the IMF, which has urged the government to meet revenue targets to secure further funding.

Protesters are demanding the government abandon the planned tax hikes, arguing that they will stifle the economy and increase the cost of living for Kenyans already struggling financially. This resistance is not unprecedented; last year, the government of President William Ruto, elected in 2022 on a promise to improve the lives of the poor, introduced a housing tax and raised the top personal income tax rate through the finance bill, triggering anger, street protests, and legal challenges.

Proposed Tax Measures

The proposed tax measures causing unrest include new levies on basic commodities such as bread, vegetable oil, and sugar, and a new motor vehicle circulation tax of 2.5% of a car’s value to be paid annually. An “eco levy” on most manufactured goods, including sanitary towels and diapers, is also proposed. Additionally, the bill seeks to increase existing taxes on financial transactions. The government argues that these tax measures are necessary to fund development programs and reduce public debt.
The government had earlier withdrawn several of the most controversial measures, such as a tax on bread and cooking oil, but this did not assuage people’s anger. The finance ministry has stated that these concessions would create a 200 billion Kenyan shilling ($1.56 billion) shortfall in the 2024/25 budget, necessitating spending cuts. Despite these concessions, protesters and opposition parties argue they are insufficient and call for the entire bill to be abandoned.

The Protests

President Ruto has acknowledged the youth-led protests and pledged to engage in dialogue to address their concerns, though the timing of such discussions remains unclear. It is also uncertain whether the protests will intensify if parliament passes the bill. The social media-driven protests lack clear leadership, but many young people have vowed to continue demonstrating. Some protesters cite the arrest of at least two activists since Ruto’s offer of talks as evidence of the government’s lack of goodwill.
The government claims that the withdrawal of some tax proposals demonstrates its willingness to compromise. Nevertheless, police have attempted to disperse predominantly young protesters chanting “Ruto must go!” amidst growing anger over the government’s plan to raise more than $2 billion in new taxes to address the country’s substantial budget deficit.
The demonstrations began a week ago in Nairobi and have since spread to other cities in the country of 54 million people. They are led mostly by young Kenyans, many of whom organized via social media and livestreamed demonstrations on TikTok, Instagram, and other platforms. The protesters are demanding that the government of Kenyan President William Ruto withdraw the bill that would introduce major tax increases, arguing that the measures are hurting ordinary Kenyans already grappling with rising prices for everyday essentials.
The human rights commission has reported that security forces have “abducted” prominent critics of the tax proposals, seizing many from their homes under cover of darkness. Treasury Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u has warned that failing to implement the tax increases could create a $1.5 billion hole in the budget. The government has indicated it would be forced to cut spending, including slashing support for a school food program and the loss-making flag carrier Kenya Airways if the bill fails.
Following initial protests last Tuesday, when the bill was tabled in parliament for debate, the government promised to withdraw planned taxes on bread, cooking oil, locally made diapers, and other products. However, by Thursday, the protests had spread to almost half of Kenya’s 47 counties. Protesters are calling for a “total shutdown” of the country and demanding that Ruto completely drop the finance bill.

Interest payments on Kenya’s debt consume nearly 38% of revenues, according to the World Bank. In January, the IMF provided Kenya with an additional $941 million loan as part of a $3.9 billion bailout that began in 2021.
Multilateral lenders are willing to continue extending credit to Kenya, provided it maintains fiscal consolidation and increases revenue collection.

What comes next?

With the bill now approved, the president has the option to either enact it within 14 days or return it to parliament with suggested amendments. The government might also consider alternative strategies to alleviate tensions, such as postponing the bill, though this is improbable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th June 2024.

How Is Politics Trigger a New Wave of Volatility For The Week Ahead?

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* Apple confirm they will delay the release of certain features within the EU due to regulations.
* Apple stocks fell 3.00% within the past week applying pressure on the NASDAQ.
* The US Dollar was last week’s best performing currency increasing in value by 0.47%.
* Investors turn to haven assets due to political uncertainty. French elections will take place over the weekend and the first US presidential debate on Thursday.

USDJPY – Dollar Strength Pushes The Exchange Close To All-Time Highs!

The US Dollar has been increasing in value against the Japanese Yen for 7 consecutive days. The US Dollar was the best performing currency of the week, while the Japanese Yen was the worst performing. The Japanese Yen Index fell 1.36% during the previous week and a further 0.13% this morning. The currency pair is witnessing strong buy signals from most indicators but is under psychological pressure as investors fear another Japanese Government currency intervention.

However, even with an intervention, fundamental elements continue to point towards potential Dollar strength. Over the past week investors have turned to the Dollar as a “safe haven” ahead of some political uncertainty. The US will hold their first presidential debate which will grab investors attention. The debate on June 27th, will be the first in-person debate between the two main candidates. In addition to this, the French elections will take place over next weekend and is likely to create volatility across the board, particularly if the outcome is a change in leadership.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

In addition to the risk factor, the US Dollar also continues to be supported by economic data. While France, Germany and the UK all failed to beat PMI expectations, the US overachieved. The US Services and Manufacturing PMI beat expectations and also rose from the previous month.  The Services PMI rose from 54.8 to 55.1 and Manufacturing from 51.3 to 51.7. The only concern for investors is a possible US interest rate adjustment in September 2024 which according to the CME Group is only 59% priced into the market.

Technical analysis, particularly price action is signalling a renewed long signal if the price rises above 159.80. On a 2-hour chart, the price is of the exchange is trading above the 75-bar SMA and 100-bar EMA signalling buyer strength.

USA100 – Apple Warn The EU, But What Will Be The Outcome For the NASDAQ?

The NASDAQ is trading at the 100-Period EMA for the first time since June 5th as the asset retraces downward. What is pressuring the NASDAQ?

The first catching investors attention is Apple stocks which are the second most influential stock for the index. Apple is warning the EU they will either not release or delay the release of new Apple features within the EU. According to the company, these new features are mainly related to AI which will be released to other regions later in the year.

The DMA is the bloc’s key digital rule book, designed to help local start-ups compete with US-based Big Tech. It requires large digital platforms to share data legally and prohibits them from prioritizing their own services over competitors’. The news is triggering a lack of demand and orders which is causing downward impulse waves.

Another concern for investors is the rise in the US Dollar, the VIX trading 0.70% higher and the lower risk appetite. However, investors will also be keen to see if investors take advantage of the lower price. Analysts continue to believe the longer-term outcome will be a bullish trend as long as market conditions remain strong.  A positive aspect for the NASDAQ is that, despite the recent price decline, the High Low Index has rebounded above 60.00%. If the price rises above $19,798.74, a rebound becomes potentially more likely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.