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Forex Stock Exchange Forum  » Forex and Stock Trading English Forum » Technical and Fundamental Analysis-Trading Signals » CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

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1attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:16 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy purchased an additional 301 BTC for $6 million. This is stated in the report submitted to the SEC. Michael Saylor, founder and ex-CEO of the company, said that purchases were made between August 2 and September 19 at an average price of $19,851 per BTC. MicroStrategy's previous investment in the first cryptocurrency took place in June: the firm purchased 480 BTC worth about $10 million.
MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries currently own 130,000 BTC, purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,638 per coin. Thus, unrealized losses on this investment exceed $1.5 billion. 

- The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve has led to the emergence of "tumors" like bitcoin. This was stated by the philosopher and author of the cult work “Black Swan” Nassim Taleb. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

- Willy Woo, a well-known bitcoin investor and analyst, believes that the BTC rate is being held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”
Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now.”

- Nicholas Merten, an analyst and founder of DataDash, believes that after BTC's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $19,000, it will fall to $14,000. In his opinion, this is influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors.
Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is struggling to rise above this level.
Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”
As for ethereum, Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.
The decline is facilitated by the actions of the Fed, whose hawkish monetary policy caused the collapse of the cryptocurrency and stock markets in 2022. Despite the potential dangers to the economy, Merten does not expect the US Central Bank to stop raising rates until a confident victory over inflation.

- An analyst with the nickname DonAlt believes that BTC will update the lows of 2022 against the backdrop of weak stock market performance. He predicts a fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a serious drop and a return to support at 3680.”

- The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market is unlike any before it as the Fed is running the ship this time around. Ethereum has fallen by about 15% since September 15, the completion date for The Merge update. Bitcoin has fallen by about 3% over the same period.
Ethereum’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation.
Traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

- Investors are wondering if ethereum’s regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case, the coin will attract close attention of the SEC.

- Takis Georgakopoulos, head of the payments division at JPMorgan investment bank, said that customer demand for cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past six months. Most likely, the situation is related to the fall of the crypto market, which dragged on for several months. More than $2 trillion has disappeared from the market. Well-known companies working with digital assets are on the verge of bankruptcy. For example, Celsius and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July due to lack of liquidity.
Recall that JPMorgan strategists recommended at the end of August that investors focus not on cryptocurrencies, but on stocks and long-term bonds until the economic situation stabilizes.

- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Mike McGlone is convinced that market signals indicate that the value of bitcoin is growing. The expert compared the current fall in cryptocurrency quotes with the fall of the NASDAQ index in 2002 and subsequent stable growth over a long period of time. Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin will benefit from a "new chapter in the economy" in which speculation is driven by more than just how much money the Fed is printing. “The days when unsustainable companies could exist are over. Now, if a business doesn't work, it's sinking. And this is good, because now that the market has cleared after a wave of bankruptcies, it is open to solid business,” he said.

- Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge complained at a meeting of the Kenyan Parliament that even in his inner circle there are many people who are trying to convince him to convert reserves countries into bitcoins. The official called the idea insane. And he added that if the country takes the path of legalizing bitcoin, he will oppose it, even under the threat of going to jail. “Can cryptocurrencies be called the best means for making settlements and payments? Are cryptocurrencies safer than a bank account? The answer is no," the governor of the Kenyan Central Bank said.
It is worth noting here that many Central Banks like to keep their reserves in gold bars. And according to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. So the idea under discussion might not be that crazy.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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2attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:26 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Inflation in the US in August that was published on September 13, has amounted to 8.3%. Although this is less than the previous indicator of 8.5%, the figures have not lived up to market expectations. The forecast had assumed a decline to 8.1%. Market participants decided that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates in such a situation. It is expected that the rate will rise by at least another 0.75% next week. As a result, against this background, the dollar began to rise sharply, and risky assets, including bitcoin and ethereum, started to fall. BTC fell below $20,000, ETH fell below $1,550.

- Analysts recorded the largest outflow of funds from crypto funds since June. According to CoinShares, it amounted to $63 million from September 03 to September 09 against $8.7 million a week earlier. Over the past five weeks, the cumulative withdrawal of funds from cryptocurrency products amounted to $99 million. Trade turnover (~$1 billion) was 46% below the average for this year.
The outflow from Ethereum funds continued for the third week in a row at even higher rates ($61.6 million vs. $2.1 million a week earlier). Analysts attributed this to investors' fears about possible problems of The Merge scheduled for September 15.

- The transition of the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will not solve the problems of scalability or high fees, but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. This opinion was expressed by analysts of Bank of America (BofA).
“The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking […] could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

- A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.
The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be, filbfilb emphasized.
The expert called the rally of bitcoin in the Q1 2023 "obvious". He sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming Merge on the ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, filbfilb has not ruled out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to the merge.

- Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”
The trader noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

- Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He noted that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin, but it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. “A significant part of investors are wondering if the current levels are the low of the cycle. It is likely, but it is also worth noting that these levels are a good option for accumulating BTC for the long term. Everyone has seen bitcoin bounce around $19,000 several times, Rager writes. In addition, the analyst believes that the coin is still highly correlated with the S&P 500 index. And therefore, we will not see new cycle lows as long as it is above 3,896 points.

- The dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal. 

- Despite the depreciation of BTC, MicroStrategy intends to continue the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks.
Earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO to focus on the company's plans to acquire BTC. MicroStrategy has grown its holdings of bitcoin under his leadership, making it the largest corporate holder of the asset. It currently owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

- Eugene Fama, American economist, and Nobel Prize winner in 2013, believes that the first cryptocurrency will only have value if it is used as money. However, according to the scientist, the viability of bitcoin as a means of payment is greatly reduced due to its high volatility. “Monetary theory says that a unit of account will not survive unless it has a sufficiently stable real value. Its real price should not rise and fall sharply,” the Nobel laureate believes.
Fama disagrees with the claim that BTC is a store of value. According to him, the idea that bitcoin has value should be considered a temporary phenomenon. “There has to be something really useful in the product so that people want to keep it for a very long time. But bitcoin has nothing that gives it value other than the investors who hold it. […] So bitcoin will collapse at some point,” the economist says.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, does not agree with Eugene Fama. He noted during his interview at the SALT conference that he is optimistic about the immediate prospects for the crypto-currency industry. In his opinion, many digital currencies can demonstrate their practical value in the foreseeable future. Novogratz also focused on the fact that the actions of market participants are formed taking into account the general rhetoric regarding a particular crypto project, and not its real functionality.
The expert added that BlackRock's entry into the crypto industry can be considered a monumental event that can have a significant impact on the entire segment in the future. Recall that BlackRock, Inc. is one of the world largest investment companies and the largest in the world in terms of assets.

- According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll, 70% of US crypto investors hope to become billionaires. Harris Poll interviewed 1,900 Americans from all age groups. Those who claim that cryptocurrencies can bring them billions are mostly millennials or generation Z. Analysts emphasized that American youth do not trust traditional financial instruments, while digital currencies, on the contrary, are becoming more and more attractive to them.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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3attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:15 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- A covert mining campaign has allegedly infected thousands of computers in 11 countries around the world with malware. The company is associated with Turkish software developer Nitrokod, which has been active since 2019. The company offers supposedly free programs, the official desktop versions of which do not exist. This was reported by experts at Check Point Research (CPR).
The attackers installed covert mining utilities into free apps based on popular services like Google Translate or YouTube Music. The popularity of the underlying source ensured high positions in the search results. The software is distributed through well-known free software platforms like Softpedia or uptodown.
Attackers managed to go unnoticed for a long time due to the complex and multi-stage infection. The hidden module for installing the mining utility was activated only a few weeks after installing the program on the computer. 
The malware injection process was divided into six time-separated stages, disguised as updates. At all stages, the installer removed traces in the logs, making it difficult to detect.

- With the exception of a few dozen tokens, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the real options for using digital currencies are underdeveloped. This opinion was expressed by Umar Farooq, the head of the Onyx blockchain division of the financial conglomerate JPMorgan. He noted that regulation has lagged behind the growth of the industry. This deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market.
The CEO of Onyx also believes that the technologies of the crypto industry are not mature enough to be used, for example, to conduct high-value transactions between institutions or to place such products as tokenized bank deposits.

- The turnover of cryptocurrency investment products ($901 million) fell to the lowest level since October 2020 from August 20 to 26, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. Such estimates were given by CoinShares analysts. “While […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects, we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. It seems to us that caution is associated with the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed,” the experts explained.

- Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.
“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

- Analyst Justin Bennett decided to warn crypto investors of a possible sharp correction. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”
“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.
Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

- A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.
Ethereum has been largely outperforming bitcoin lately as sentiment in the ETH community remains optimistic due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the recent unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

- CryptoQuant experts note that the fall in the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 threshold woke up the “ancient” bitcoin wallets that were active 7-10 years ago. Historically, a surge in the activity of such wallets happens when the first cryptocurrency makes unprotected movements or reaches long-awaited targets or support levels. Amid the panic in the cryptocurrency market, long-term holders can join the sellers and start dumping their holdings to avoid further losses. This trend is usually one of the first signs of capitulation among investors.
It is reported that 5,000 bitcoins are currently in motion from 10-year-old addresses. Despite the significance of the transaction, this is a relatively small volume. Similar wallets have Previously activated up to 100,000 BTC in a short period, creating huge pressure on the market. But even with a larger amount, there is no reason to panic, since the transfer can only be a redistribution of funds. During periods of high volatility, whales tend to spread their assets across different wallets in order to manage them more efficiently. 

- According to Steve Huffman, CEO of Reddit, there are a lot of incomprehensible and useless terms in the cryptocurrency market. Because of this, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand for both experienced and novice traders and investors.
As Steve Huffman pointed out, almost no one in his company uses specific cryptocurrency terminology. It is incomprehensible to customers, completely confusing them. In his opinion, all this hype with complex terms that developers use only hides their illiteracy and misunderstanding of the cryptocurrencies basics.
The reason is probably that the crypto market is becoming more and more like a classic stock market. As a result, bureaucratization, expressed in incomprehensible terms, begins to dominate more and more. Many regulators from different countries introduce their own rules, developers try to show that they are smarter than competitors, startups write white papers so that investors can see that they understand all the intricacies. And it is almost impossible to read the laws dedicated to cryptocurrencies, they are so overloaded with mysterious terminology.

- Jordan Belfort, former stockbroker, commonly known as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, has admitted that his initial bitcoin zero prediction was wrong. “At the time, I really hated cryptocurrencies and I confirm everything I said about them in 2017, except for one thing: I was wrong about bitcoin zeroing out. Here I lacked attention, because it seemed to me that all digital assets are a scam,” Belfort said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
The crypto winter of 2018 changed his mind. Moreover, the former stockbroker said that he came to understand that bitcoin harbors the qualities of digital gold. In his opinion, if cryptocurrencies are regulated, it is likely that BTC will start trading as a store of value, and not as growth stocks.

- John Wu, the head of the Avalanche (AVAX) platform, believes that despite the fall in the cryptocurrency market due to the correlation with stock assets, crypto investors expect “cosmic profits”. “The market needs to understand that in the crypto-asset space, investors will receive more than the average return on the market, the so-called alpha. There are very good reasons for this. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen, but stablecoins have not. This suggests that many investors hold them and are ready to deploy stablecoins in the market.”

- Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary questions bitcoin's ability to rise above the $25,000 price level under the current conditions. O'Leary has drawn attention to the fact that the price of bitcoin is stagnating, as there is no regulation that allows institutional investors to invest in this sector. And without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class.
“You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it. But I believe that we will get the regulation within the next two or three years. And then, finally, we will be able to achieve institutional participation.”

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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4attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:02 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Charles Edwards, the founder of the Capriole Investments crypto fund, came to the conclusion based on the data of the Difficulty Feed indicator that the surrender period of bitcoin miners has passed. This, he said, is "a great signal to buy." According to his observations, the last phase of surrender is the third longest in history (71 days). It is longer than in 2021, but two days shorter than in 2018. “Historically, the surrender of bitcoin miners recorded major price lows and served as excellent buy signals,” Edwards said.

- Meltem Demirs, Strategy Director at CoinShares, spoke of what awaits the two top coins at the end of Q3. According to her, now there is a summer lull in the crypto market, as a significant part of people do not trade actively during the holidays. But despite this, “we have seen a lot of buying on drawdowns with regard to BTC. There is capital willing to accumulate bitcoin.”
Demirors does not expect a significant increase in the price of bitcoin until the end of September: “Until the end of the 3rd quarter, BTC does not have catalysts that could contribute to growth. It is highly dependent now on macroeconomics, which was observed in the example of a significant correlation with the shares of companies in the technology sector.”
As for ethereum, the CoinShares strategist believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely it will be on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.” (Recall that the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20.”

- For the first time since summer 2020, the average cost of a transaction in the BTC network has become less than $1, thus expanding the possibilities of using the asset as a means of payment. The need to pay significant fees when transferring small funds caused inconvenience and dissatisfaction among users. Previously, BTC transactions were slow and expensive, but improvements like the Lightning Network and Taproot give hope that this situation will never happen again. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions has decreased to $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020.

- Analyst Justin Bennett warned that BTC could face another sell-off. According to him, bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support level, which has kept the bullish sentiment over the past few months, and now the situation resembles a correction in May-June this year. “Bitcoin is currently looking almost identical to what we have seen a couple of times over the past few months, and it is moving below the bear flag.” According to Bennett, the BTC rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.
Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bennett believes that bitcoin’s reaction at $19,000 should determine its behavior for the rest of the year: “The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or if we get lower lows for the rest of the year.”
Crypto analyst and trader Neko believes the $21,700 level is key for bitcoin as it is the combined average breakeven of all bitcoin holders.

- Bitcoin on-chain activity has reached the same levels as at the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. This opinion was expressed by Glassnode analysts. However, despite the signs of the end of the “crypto winter”, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. “Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,” Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its average size has fallen below $1.
Despite this, the current consolidation phase of the bottom of the cycle is “most likely,” according to Glassnode. According to experts, it is at the current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth. However, the coin is still trading in the middle of the corrective pattern that has been present since June 18, and the further direction of the trend remains unclear.

- The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure in recent months, however, according to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, bitcoin is entrenched in the financial system forever. The specialist is sure that the first cryptocurrency will show significant growth in the coming years. Cryptocurrency platform Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors, and their interest in the market is only growing, according to Michael.

- JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of "something worse than a recession" in the US economy, with a 20-30% chance of this happening, which is a lot. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of a worsening recession, with which World Bank President David Malpass agrees. “The global economy is in danger again,” the financier says. “It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.”
Members of the crypto community tend to interpret these statements as a growth factor for the crypto market. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, believes that the price of bitcoin could rise to $300,000 over the next 12-24 months. At the same time, the same Anthony Scaramucci said that bitcoin is still “not mature enough” to be considered a full-fledged hedging asset. The capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is now at around $410 billion, which, of course, is not enough to hedge the inflation of the world's major economies.

- Entrepreneur Kim Dotcom believes that a strong drop would be good for the cryptocurrency market, as it would lead to the exit of most speculators who are focused only on making money on short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. In his opinion, the crypto sphere will get a “second wind” when digital assets will be perceived by participants precisely as financial instruments with great potential. Dotcom also spoke about the future of the global economy. In his opinion, the US will not cope with the burden of its financial problems, and the US dollar will depreciate greatly.
For reference: Kim Dotcom is a German-Finnish entrepreneur, the former owner of the largest file hosting service Megaupload, the owner of the new file sharing service Mega from January to September 2013. Kim Dotcom was sentenced in Germany for using insider information. He was arrested on January 19, 2012 in New Zealand at the request of the FBI, but was released on bail on February 22.

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen expressed his opinion on what could be the most negative scenario for ethereum. “In my opinion,” the expert says, “this is the logarithmic regression band, which signals a possible area of ¬$400-$800. I think it is worth considering this opportunity as a great option for savings.”
At the same time, Cowen also noted the possibility of ETH moving in the other direction: “At the same time, ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary politics."

- Unknown hackers broke into the settings of General Bytes bitcoin ATMs on August 18, with the help of which they were able to transfer cryptocurrencies deposited through devices to their wallet. The incident was confirmed by company representatives. According to experts, the hackers "scanned open servers, including those hosted in the General Bytes cloud service." They added themselves as administrator from there. The hackers then proceeded to change the “buy” and “sell” settings so that any cryptocurrencies received by the bitcoin ATM would go to their wallet. General Bytes added that previous security checks had not revealed this vulnerability.
For reference: General Bytes owns and operates 8,827 Bitcoin ATMs in over 120 countries. The company headquarters is in Prague, Czech Republic. ATM customers can buy or sell over 40 different cryptocurrencies.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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5attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:25 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Bitcoin Core team member Matt Corallo called the maximalists of the first cryptocurrency an “endangered species” and urged them to stop attacking other projects. According to him, the “most vocal proponents” are attacking other communities counterproductively instead of promoting the “greatness and uniqueness” of digital gold. In his opinion, in the context of the current policy of confronting projects in the crypto community, many of the Ethereum community (as with Ripple before) will begin to set regulators against bitcoin, relying on ecology.

- Law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan conducted a special operation, as a result of which the gang that controlled cryptominers was neutralized. 23 people were detained during several raids.  Weapons, black bookkeeping, as well as more than 6,000 items of mining equipment worth about $7 million were seized during the searches. It is reported that the criminals made a profit of $300-500 thousand per month due to the activities of the mining farms under their control.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs worldwide has increased to 39,015, according to the Coin ATM Radar service. The figure was 25,154 a year ago. The United States holds the leading position by a wide margin: 87.9% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs are concentrated there. Canada ranks second with 6.3%.

– Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. This was stated by Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,” he explained.
The analyst emphasized the high importance of the stock market, with which bitcoin shows a noticeable correlation, and mentioned the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urged not to try to fight the Fed.

- Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

- An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). “PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."
The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: “Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.”
And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities, prominent figures from Central banks and a number of other sectors discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.
These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. “If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.”

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, said that bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $30,000 anytime soon. He noted in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not observe an influx of institutional investors into the first cryptocurrency at the moment. The billionaire himself “would be happy” if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.
(Note that a recent survey of institutional investors by Cumberland showed that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year.)
As for ethereum, Mike Novogratz believes that this altcoin could reach the $2,200 mark, given the momentum leading up to the upgrade to change the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected in end of September.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the market has not yet taken into account the upcoming transition of the network to Proof-of-Stake, which should take place in September. “Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,” he said. “In my opinion, […] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.”

- The World Tourism Organization at the UN has included El Salvador in its list. According to the President of the country Nayib Bukele, it was bitcoin that helped the significant growth of the tourism industry. The head of state stressed that only a few countries managed to return tourism indicators to pre-pandemic levels. The adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, as well as the creation of a "bitcoin beach", has attracted tourists from all over the world to El Salvador. The President also noted the growth of domestic tourism due to the decrease in crime. Nayib Bukele presented statistics from the search giant Google: El Salvador is marked on the map as a country with "higher than expected" tourist activity.
Morena Valdez, Minister of Tourism of El Salvador, said earlier that tourism in the country has grown by 30% thanks to bitcoin. At the same time, cryptocurrency enthusiasts stay in El Salvador for a longer period and spend more money. If the daily expenses of a tourist in the country ranged from $113 to $150 earlier, they exceed $200 now.

- The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, a popular crypto analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds into cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC rate to $773,000.
“If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,” the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

- According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. “I think we've already seen the worst. There's still a little more to go, but it's not that bad,” said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. “Some bitcoin miners might have some problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.”
However, the SBF’s spring forecast was not without a “but”: “If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in a recession for two and a half years […], bitcoin could drop to $15,000 or $10,000,” said the CEO of FTX.
The crypto winter froze a number of once-thriving companies such as Three Arrows Capital, Terraform Labs and Voyager Digital, but FTX survived the cold. Commenting on the incident, its head said that the recession "became a healthy weed" for the industry.

- Despite the decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency in 2022, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC and more is growing steadily (+9.4% since the beginning of the year). The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with balances of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months.
This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. Analytical resource The Balance posted a report stating that 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies. According to the author of the report, these Americans are looking for new areas of investment to maintain their savings amid economic uncertainty. Among millennials and Gen Z investors (aged 41 and younger), almost 50% prefer cryptocurrencies. Among investors of generation X and older, they are just under a third.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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6attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:03 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth of net inflow to stablecoins signal a bullish momentum in the market. This conclusion was made by analysts of Bank of America. They noted the “easing of pressure from sellers” with the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. The experts pointed to the stability of the trend despite the Fed's increase in the key rate by 0.75% at once.
Bank of America estimated the amount of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%.

- If bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. This is stated in the latest report from Arcane Research. A series of rising local lows has been forming on the chart since July. But “if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.”
The company emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. “Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,” the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue.

- On the contrary, Glassnode has doubted the continuation of bitcoin's recovery rally. The rise in prices of BTC and ethereum in recent days is not accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.
The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.
There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- North Korean hackers plagiarize online resumes from legitimate LinkedIn and Indeed profiles to get remote jobs at US cryptocurrency companies. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to security specialists from Mandiant Inc. As a rule, North Koreans communicate actively on the profile site GitHub, pretending to be from other countries, ascribe to themselves specialization in the technology industry and extensive experience in software development. After getting a job, they are engaged in theft and laundering of illegally obtained digital assets. Naturally, the DPRK government denies any involvement in such crimes.

- The crypto analyst aka Dave the Wave, who correctly predicted the collapse of the crypto market in May 2021, is now talking about the approach of a bullish rally. The basis for this, according to him, are the signals of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, which was accurate to indicate the 300% BTC rally in 2019.
Dave the Wave noted that many traders are currently concerned about the uncertainty that is caused by macro-economic factors. However, in his opinion, these factors may not have such a strong impact on bitcoin as the market thinks. “Despite macro factors, BTC is doing its job,” the analyst said optimistically.

- According to Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, the current structure of the bitcoin market indicates a bottoming out process. “I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,” the investor said. “But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. […] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.”
Yusko agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is in the “spring” part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next “summer” bull run, which should occur shortly before the next halving (2024): “In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun. If we look at the last two cycles, we see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.”
The head of Morgan Creek also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000. 
Recall that Yusko said last year that the price of the asset could soar to $250,000 by 2026. He also suggested that the market cap of BTC will be equal to the market cap of gold, as this digital asset has become a “perfect store of value” and is on its way to replacing the precious metal.

- Crypto trader and investor Bob Loukas agrees that halvings are driving market trends. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, in his opinion, could plunge into a “true crypto winter” in 2026.
According to the Bob Lucas model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. “In theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows. Although, it’s hard to believe,” the investor said.
Recall that halving is a two-fold reduction in the reward to miners for a mined block in the blockchain embedded in the bitcoin code. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this amount decreased to 25 BTC on November 28, 2012, to 12.5 BTC on July 9, 2016, to 6.25 BTC on May 11, 2020. The next reward cut to 3.125 BTC is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000.

- According to the results of July, receipts in cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $474 million (the maximum since the beginning of the year), $81 million for the week from July 23 to July 29. The influx continued for the fifth week in a row. Such data is provided by CoinShares experts. On the other hand, trading activity remains low. The volume of transactions with crypto products at the end of the last reporting week amounted to $1.3 billion, which is almost half the average since the beginning of the year ($2.4 billion).

- Jurrien Timmer, a macroeconomist at one of the largest American holding companies Fidelity, said that bitcoin and ethereum are comparable in terms of their market share and level of dominance in crypto industry with such a tech giant as Apple. “According to Metcalfe's law, the larger an ecosystem becomes, the more its value grows exponentially. Apple is an example. [...] The more iPhones and other devices it sells, the more exponentially it grows. And it grows until it becomes so powerful that a giant abyss forms around it, which cannot be overcome even if something much better than the iPhone is invented tomorrow,” the expert is sure.
Trimmer believes that other crypto projects will continue to compete with the two leading digital assets, but will not be able to win against the giant ecosystems of BTC and ETH.

- Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes the digital asset market has nearly bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. “I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,” said the CEO of Pantera Capital.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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7attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:47 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The number of attacks using ransomware has significantly decreased against the backdrop of the fall in the price of bitcoin, experts from the American company SonicWall noted. Researchers counted 236 million ransomware infection attempts in the first half of 2022. This is 23% less compared to the same period last year. According to the report, the number of ransomware incidents peaked in 2021. The targets of the attackers then were large companies that were forced to pay large amounts of cryptocurrency to hackers.

- The price of bitcoin bounced up from the $20,000 level, which concentrated the greatest attraction of speculators. This happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to "new" optimistic buyers. Glassnode experts emphasize that there was also demand from speculators earlier at the $30,000 and $40,000 levels.
Glassnode warns that it may take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by such long-term indicators as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- Peter Brandt, the head of Factor LLC, trader with 45 years of experience, criticized MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who called bitcoin an ensured digital commodity. “It is ensured with energy only because of its excessive consumption, without ensuring an economic function. It's a huge myth that bitcoin is somehow more than just a consumer of energy,” Brandt wrote.
In response, Saylor emphasized that "all products consume energy." According to him, the economic function of bitcoin is to create a free global settlement network. "Since bitcoin is a commodity, it can fulfill the role of global digital money. The economic function is to grant property rights to 8 billion people, as well as to create a global settlement network that has already transferred $17 trillion of value in 2022,” he wrote.
Note that despite the criticisms of bitcoin, this cryptocurrency is one of the largest assets in the portfolio of Peter Brandt.

- Bitcoin continues to resist selling pressure and managed to stabilize above the $20,000 level on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting. According to a number of analysts, the main role in this was played by the whales (investors with a balance of 1000+ and 10000+ BTC), who maintain hodle sentiment and continue to buy bitcoin on exchange rate drawdowns.
It is worth noting the activity of the owners of small BTC balances. For example, the number of addresses with a balance of 0.01+ BTC has reached an all-time high of 10,543,548.

- A well-known analyst named PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, predicted the day when both US stocks and bitcoin reach new all-time highs. “Some people are afraid of macroeconomics, bitcoin's relationship with the stock market, etc.,” he tweeted. “My opinion is that the S&P 500 will be in the range of $5,000-$6,000 over the next 5 years, and bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $1 million.

- Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, said that the adoption of cryptocurrencies is currently best in Latin America, and has huge prospects. The potential is estimated at $128 billion. Digital currencies will be used in various areas of life, primarily as a means of payment.

- Analysts from Forex Suggest analyzed different countries and regions in terms of parameters characterizing the availability of cryptocurrencies for citizens. Several parameters were evaluated: the number and availability of crypto ATMs, regulation of cryptocurrencies at the state level, startup culture, and taxation.
Hong Kong came in first with 8.6 points, ahead of the US and Switzerland with 7.7 and 7.5 points respectively. These two countries have a better cryptocurrency infrastructure and more ATMs per 100,000 people (in the US - 10, Switzerland - 6.5, in Hong Kong - only 2), but Hong Kong won in the availability of these devices for the population due to its compactness.
Low taxes on cryptocurrency income are also important. Hong Kong, Switzerland, Panama, Portugal, Germany, Malaysia and Turkey win here. But the number of requests for cryptocurrencies in search engines is the highest in Australia (4,579 requests per 100,000 population). Ireland and the UK are in second and third place.

- Jim Rogers, a major American investor, co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management, said that it will be necessary to enlist government support for this sector before considering cryptocurrency a reliable investment. BTC is only a gambling tool, not real money. Bitcoin is well suited for speculation but will eventually fail as a currency.
The specialist stressed that he will consider buying BTC if the European Union accepts it as an official currency and introduces it into the region's payment system. However, he will not buy cryptocurrencies at the moment, regardless of the prices at which they can be traded. Recall that Jim Rogers predicted in 2020 that the price of the main cryptocurrency will eventually fall to zero.

- Hollywood producer Ryan Felton pleaded guilty to receiving $2.4 million through a cryptocurrency scam. This is stated in the US Department of Justice press release. He raised the money through an initial coin offering for a streaming platform FLiK. The producer said that the company has the potential to bypass Netflix. In addition, the team behind the platform which was introduced to the market at the height of the 2017 ICO boom, claimed to be entering into licensing agreements with major film and television studios. In addition, Felton promoted another ICO in 2018: the CoinSpark crypto exchange, promising investors a 25% profit in the form of dividends.
As a result, the investors' funds were transferred to Felton's accounts and cashed out. he used them to buy a house for $1.5 million, a Ferrari for $180,000, a Chevrolet Tahoe SUV for $58,250, and jewelry for $30,000.

- British IT engineer James Howells became famous all over the world for admitting that he lost his hard drive in 2013, which contained a wallet with 7,500 BTC. This loser threw a disk from an old computer that he used for mining back in 2009 in a landfill. The poor man did not follow the news and did not know that these bitcoins were worth about a million dollars even at that time.
Almost 10 years have passed since then, but he is still trying to find the loss. James Howels has repeatedly requested the Newport City Administration to organize a massive search for the HDD over the past few years. Officials refused him time after time, citing inevitable environmental problems and a trivial stench throughout the city when digging up the entire territory of the landfill. In 2021, the treasure hunter offered the city authorities 25% of the value of his BTC (about $72 million at that time), but this did not help either.
Now, disillusioned with people, Howels decided to bet on robots. He will order two search robots-dogs of the Spot type worth $75,000 each from the American Boston Dynamics. Iron friends will be nicknamed Satoshi and Hal in honor of the creator of bitcoin and the cryptographer who received the first transaction. It remains a mystery how robot dogs with cameras or even metal detectors will be able to find a laptop HDD in a giant garbage field, already deep under the surface. And what happened to the disc after nine years of lying in a landfill? The magnetic recording is most likely damaged, although there is still a chance to recover information on specialized equipment.

- Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that an unexpected rise in the market is likely, which will be a big surprise for the bears. “Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 to $53,000 last July, up 80% within a month. I suppose that the market can grow up again now and retest the previous consolidation area around $30,000. There are no major resistance zones ahead and the moving averages are leading right into this point, giving bitcoin a great upside opportunity. Most people do not believe in this possibility, but the rally can surprise you with its scale in a market with excessive volumes of derivatives.”
Note that although Merten does not exclude BTC growth in the short term, he doubts that the asset will reach the bottom: “Many believe that the bottom was reached on June 18. Yes, we saw a huge sell-off and a good rebound. The market also got rid of significant amounts of borrowed funds used for crypto speculation. But one cannot discount the reality of the continued impact of the macro market, which will continue to limit long-term investment in cryptocurrencies.”

- The next big rise in cryptocurrency prices will occur before the next halving in the bitcoin network, which is scheduled for May 2024. This is the opinion of financial analyst Florian Grummes, Managing Director of the investment company Midas Touch Consulting. In his opinion, despite the recent minor recovery, the cryptocurrency winter is far from over. The rise to $35,000 will occur in 6-12 months. This will be a so-called "auxiliary rally" that may precede a larger rally.
In the long term, Grummes is confidently optimistic, but warns that since the crypto market is directly correlated with the stock market, one must be prepared for deviations not only upwards, but also downwards at the current stage.
This expert predicted BTC to rise to $100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2022 in the past, which did not happen. Therefore, his forecasts, as well as all other ones, should be treated with sufficient caution now as well.

- Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision Group and former CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a serious positive trend reversal. The markets are mainly driven by liquidity, which comes from the M2 money supply, he said. This money supply correlates with the total amount of currency in circulation, plus it is highly liquid non-cash assets that can be easily converted into cash.
Most crypto investors believe that miner rewards at the next halving will drive up the price. However, Pal argues that the role of M2 is greater than that of halving: “Cryptocurrency is not driven by the business cycle, but by global liquidity. So the main indicator of the growth of bitcoin is the rate of change of M2. Every time there was an increase in the money supply, there was always a reversal, the specialist says.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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8attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:03 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Congress and the SEC should take a tougher stance on the cryptocurrency industry. This was stated by a member of the US Senate Banking Committee Elizabeth Warren. “I am sounding the alarm about cryptocurrencies and the need for stricter regulations for consumer protection and financial stability. Too many companies have managed to deceive customers and rub ordinary investors in their face,” said the senator.
Warren's words came against the background of ongoing problems in the crypto industry. For example, Celsius Network suspended the withdrawal of funds “due to extreme market conditions” in June, after which it filed for bankruptcy. It became known about the introduction of limits on the withdrawal of funds by the CoinLoan platform on July 5, and the Vauld platform announced a possible restructuring.

- Assuming the market cycle repeats, the bearish phase of bitcoin will end in the first half of autumn. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the historical data provided by the analysts at Grayscale Investments. It took bitcoin 1,290 and 1,257 days to form a full cycle in 2012 and 2016, respectively. It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016. The duration of the current cycle, which began in 2020, has reached 1206 days (as of July 20, 2022). In other words, it may take another two or three months before the bottom is reached.

- A crypto strategist with the nickname Rekt Capital came to similar conclusions. In his opinion, despite the oversold signals, the downward exchange rate movement may continue for quite a long time. The analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC monthly timeframe is now below the lowest levels of the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, which could become new resistance levels for bitcoin.
According to Rekt Capital, the short-term prospects of the coin do not look very good, and the bottom can be reached only in a few months: “Bitcoin has about 650 days before the next halving (April 2024). Historically, it bottomed around 517-547 days before its halving. In the event of a repeat of history, bitcoin will need another 100-150 days before reaching the bottom, which will form in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

- Analysts at the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange use the 200-week moving average on the bitcoin chart as their main indicator. In particular, they drew attention to the multipliers with which BTC traded in the past relative to its 200-week SMA. Thus, having rebounded from the SMA200, bitcoin grew 15.2 times in December 2017. The growth was 13.2 times in November 2013. At the moment, BTC is trading close to its 200-week moving average. Its current value is about $22,485. If the coin shows a multiplier in the range of 13x - 15x again, it may rise to about $300,000.
Of course, the multiplier for BTC was not always 10x when touching the SMA200. Growth peaked at 5.8x in March 2021 before the crypto market began to decline noticeably. However, even with this value of the multiplier, bitcoin can rise to $130,000.

- The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned of a rise in fake applications for investing in cryptocurrencies. It is common for attackers to impersonate legitimate financial institutions in order to gain the trust of potential victims. They then persuade people to install fraudulent mobile apps and deposit money, which they then steal. According to FBI estimates, cybercriminals have recently managed to steal about $43 million in this way.
The Bureau recommended that cryptocurrency owners enable multi-factor authentication for all their accounts, reject requests to install suspicious applications, and verify phone numbers and email addresses on the official websites of companies allegedly acting on behalf of scammers.

- Edward Dowd, a former top manager at Blackrock investment firm, believes that despite the recent turmoil, bitcoin will become an integral part of any investment portfolio. The specialist believes that gold will remain a viable investment, but BTC is more likely to become a store of value. “At least BTC can be sold or exchanged digitally, but it is much more difficult with gold. Although I am not against gold, having a small amount of it is also a good idea,” says Dowd.
As the cryptocurrency industry matures, bitcoin will stand out from the rest of the market, the ex-CEO of Blackrock believes. He compared the cryptocurrency market to the era of the dot-com crisis, when the vast majority of Internet companies closed down, and only stronger competitors managed to survive. Dowd cited the example of Amazon, which is still considered one of the largest technology giants. Last month, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe also compared the current bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market to the dot-com crisis.

- American businessman Thomas Peterffy, whose capital is estimated at $18.4 billion, is ready to buy bitcoins when the value of the cryptocurrency drops to $12,000. This chairman of Interactive Brokers admitted in a recent interview with Forbes that he already owns digital assets and plans to acquire a few more coins if BTC drops in price. The billionaire does not intend to buy cryptocurrency at the current, high in his opinion, price, as he believes that in the future bitcoin is likely to depreciate or be banned in the United States. Despite the high financial risks associated with buying cryptocurrencies, Peterffy advised investors in January to invest 2-3% of assets in bitcoin in case “money goes to hell.”
Last week, Finder portal experts made a forecast for a decline in the value of bitcoin to $13,676. Analysts doubt that the price will fall below this value, and then Thomas' plan will not come true.

- Despite the fall of the cryptocurrency market, a poll on the social network Weibo with the participation of more than 2,200 people showed that Chinese traders are waiting for further decline in the price of bitcoin. 8% of respondents said they would buy BTC at $18,000 per coin. 26% of respondents will start purchases at $15,000. But if the bitcoin rate falls to $10,000, 40% of respondents will buy the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that trading in cryptocurrencies is prohibited in China. The People's Bank of China reported in March that the volume of BTC transactions in the country decreased by 80%, which indicates the effectiveness of the ban.

- Bitcoin rose above $23,000 as the US dollar weakened. The DXY index, which determines the strength of the USD, finally broke the rally that began on February 24 and rebounded from its twenty-year high at around 109.294 points, registered on July 14. At the time of publication, this drop has reached almost 2.5%.
The maximum price of BTC at the time of publication on 07/20/2022 was $23,911. Thus, bitcoin has grown by 26.6% compared to the low of July 13 ($18.886). This movement could be regarded as a technical rebound; however, the main cryptocurrency has overcome an important psychological level in the form of a 200-week moving average. According to analysts at the Binance crypto exchange, if the bulls manage to close the week above this level, it will be possible to ascertain the restoration of strong support characteristic of bitcoin bearish cycles.

- Bitcoin's break above the 200-week SMA caused a surge of enthusiasm among investors. Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe first tweeted out a graphical forecast anticipating a cryptocurrency rally to $28,000 and then compared the current market situation to the recovery from the memorable collapse triggered by the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. At that time, bitcoin collapsed to $3,782, but then rose by 1.600% over the next 13 months (to $64,853 in April 2021).

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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9attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:58 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- 60% of investors surveyed by Bloomberg believe that a decline in the price of bitcoin to $10,000 is more likely. The remaining 40% are waiting for a recovery to $30,000. The study involved 950 respondents. Compared to institutions, there were more skeptics among retail investors. Almost every fourth called the first cryptocurrency “garbage” (18% of professional market participants).
Respondents expressed confidence that recent developments in the crypto market will prompt regulators to tighten their supervision of the industry. This can increase trust and lead to further popularization of digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents expressed confidence in the strong positions of bitcoin and Ethereum in the next five years, despite the active preparation by Central banks to launch their own digital currencies (CBDC).
As for NFTs, only 9% of the study participants see them as an investment opportunity. For the rest, non-fungible tokens are art projects and status symbols, which will no longer return to the previous hype.

- The inflow of funds into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $15 million in the first week of July. The rate of inflows into bear funds, which allow bitcoin shorts, has slowed from $51 million a week earlier to $6.3 million, according to data from investment firm CoinShares. There was an inflow to Ethereum-based products for the third week in a row. Analysts have linked this to Ethereum's upcoming transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. Investors remain interested in products based on several assets. Investments in them have amounted to $217.3 million since the beginning of the year.

- Gold advocate and critic of the first cryptocurrency, Peter Schiff, said he was ready to sell his Euro Pacific bank for bitcoins or for any other digital asset. “Actually, yes, I would sell the bank for anything if the regulators let me do it. My main goal is to protect clients,” he wrote.
Recall that regulators in Puerto Rico closed Euro Pacific in early July due to allegations of insolvency and non-compliance. Schiff said that government authorities are taking revenge on him for criticizing excessive taxation and control by the authorities. According to him, the regulators have no evidence of violations, the bank has no loans or debts, but there are enough funds to fully pay all depositors.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that he does not believe in the possibility of reducing the price of the first cryptocurrency to $13,000. “There is a feeling that we are 90% over this deleveraging. […] The problem is that further growth requires more faith and new capital,” he said. According to Novogratz, companies in the cryptocurrency market had too many leveraged positions. This led to the bankruptcy of some of them. He also predicted a sideways trend in the digital asset industry until the US Federal Reserve stops raising the base rate. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, it will take about 18 months.
Rockefeller International CEO Ruchir Sharma also noted that bitcoin needs to get rid of excess leverage in order to become sustainable again.

- Ethereum should be classified as a security, since the asset was originally distributed to investors as part of an ICO. This was stated by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who added that the periodic software updates of the Ethereum network, behind which the development team stands, are another argument in favor of such a classification. In his opinion, for a cryptocurrency to be considered a commodity, it should not have an issuer or someone who would “make decisions”.
Saylor also stated that the tokens of all networks based on Proof-of-Stake are securities. According to him, investing in these assets is “extremely risky” due to potential problems with regulators. According to the top manager, this is one of the key reasons why MicroStrategy only invests in bitcoin.

- Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst, said that North Korea will continue to focus on cyberattacks on cryptocurrency and technology companies as the DPRK regime faces severe shortages of food and other resources.
These attacks will become more sophisticated over time as the country struggles with lingering economic sanctions and profiting from cyberattacks has become a "way of life" for North Korea. According to the analyst, the country takes this job very seriously: it's not just some person sitting in the basement and trying to steal cryptocurrency. Pyongyang provides its hackers with the best equipment and education as they bring it a critical income stream. First of all, according to Kim, hackers pay attention to unsuspecting employees of technology companies and try to find vulnerabilities through them, and often get a job in one of the Western or Asian companies themselves.
Earlier, Reuters experts estimated that due to the downturn in the market, the cryptocurrency stolen by North Korea over the past year has fallen in price by $400 million.

- Miners in the US began to move to new states in order not to burn out on rising electricity prices. According to the US government, electricity costs in the country will grow by an average of 5% this summer. But it all depends on each individual state. For example, according to the forecast of the US Chamber of Commerce, electricity growth in New England will be 16.4%, while in the Southwest it will be only 2.4%.
However, moving is far from the only way to save your mining investment. There are many incentives for renewable energy in the US. For example, when installing large solar panels, miners can receive incentives from the government, sometimes reaching 50% of the electricity bill.

- Macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that although there are no clear bullish signals in the crypto market, the time for global capitulation has already passed. In her opinion, the worst part of the bearish trend ended along with the volatile first half of 2022, when BTC lost over 56% of its value. The macro strategist believes that bitcoin can recover as the massive BTC sell-off has stopped.
However, Alden warns that bitcoin could still go down one step. “Macroeconomically, there are still not many bullish catalysts at the moment, and I would not rule out further price movement down.” “We have seen that, for the most part, bitcoin is very strongly correlated with the growth of the money supply, especially in dollars. So, when we have had a huge increase in the money supply around the world over the past couple of years, bitcoin has also done very well,” explained Alden. Now the reverse is happening as the US Federal Reserve and other Central banks try to tamp down inflation. And this, accordingly, affects the price of the cryptocurrency.

- CEO of Rockefeller International, formerly chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma believes that bitcoin will soon return to growth and reach new heights. The financier recalled the situation with Amazon in the early 2000s, during the dot-com bubble, when the retailer's share price collapsed by 90%. However, stocks then bounced back, and rose another 300 times over the next 20 years. The top manager of Rockfeller International believes that a similar situation could happen with the first cryptocurrency.
Sharma noted that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become victims of a “global speculative mania.” At the same time, the deleveraging process is not over yet, and the bitcoin rate may further decline in the next six months against the backdrop of a fall in the stock market. Sharma recalled that a bearish trend usually lasts about a year in the stock market, and stock indices fall by 35%. At the moment, the market has decreased by only 20%. “I would not say that we are already at the bottom. The bearish trend in the US, which is the driver of demand for risky assets around the world, is still ongoing,” Sharma said.
According to the head of Rockfeller International, the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is currently under threat. At the same time, he does not see competitors from other fiat currencies, but a “window of opportunity” has opened for cryptocurrencies. Sharma believes that top cryptocurrencies will become much more stable within three to five years, which will allow them to displace the US dollar.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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10attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:59 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The record decline in the price of bitcoin in June practically took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. These are the conclusions made by Glassnode analysts. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The number of daily active addresses has dropped from over 1 million in November to the current 870,000.
The outflow of bitcoin from centralized exchanges has emptied reserves to levels last seen in July 2018. Monthly rates reached 150,000 BTC (5-6% of the total) in June. The decline in exchange reserves is complemented by the indicator of “illiquid supply”. In June, it rose to a record 223,000 BTC since July 2017. 
Aggressive accumulation of coins is observed among so-called shrimps (balances less than 1 BTC) and whales (over 10,000 BTC). The monthly coin accumulation rate was the first to reach 60,460 BTC (0.32% of the market supply), which is higher than the previous record of 52,100 BTC in December 2017. As for whales, they withdrew 8.99 million BTC from exchanges. In June, the rate reached 140,000 BTC, the second result in five years. 

- Deutsche Bank strategists believe that the arguments for bitcoin as “digital gold” have fallen apart. Cryptocurrency has not become a safe haven amid falling stock markets, physical gold “has behaved better” in this regard.
In their opinion, bitcoin is more like diamonds, a “high-market asset” that relies mainly on marketing. They recalled that the largest player in the market, De Beers, managed to change consumer attitudes towards precious stones with an advertising campaign in the 1950s. “By selling an idea rather than a product, they have created a solid foundation for the $72 billion a year industry that has dominated for the past 80 years. What is true for diamonds is true for many goods and services, including bitcoin,” the experts said.
Deutsche Bank specialists believe that the price of bitcoin can recover to the level of $28,000 by the end of 2022. This rise will be associated with a rally in the US stock market as cryptocurrencies correlate increasingly with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. These benchmarks will recover to their January levels by the end of the year, holding bitcoin in their wake.

- Former hedge fund manager Cramer & Co and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer believes the US Fed has won a "remarkable victory" in the fight against cryptocurrencies. “There is a front in the war against inflation with the Fed's outstanding victory: it's a battle against financial speculation. [...] The work on destroying cryptocurrencies is almost complete, but they don't seem to know about it yet,” he said.
According to Cramer, digital assets do not protect investors from anything, and the Fed needs to continue to fight inflation, especially in the issue of wages.

- The financier Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has admitted that the current market situation is just the middle of a bear cycle for bitcoin. The investor, who became the prototype of the hero of the movie "The Big Short", believes that the first cryptocurrency can continue to fall. «Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there,” wrote Burry.
Recall that, according to Arcane Research researchers, the potential for a decrease in the price of bitcoin remains until the level of $10,350.

- The worst of the bear market may be behind us as the strong players in the crypto industry “rescue” the weak ones to contain the “infection”. This was stated by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. The specialist could have in mind the interest of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in buying the BlockFi landing platform. The media also mentioned the online broker Robinhood as a target for the takeover. Previously, the FTX exchange supported the cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital. The expert mentioned the high rates of venture financing in May-June as an additional factor for optimism.
Panigirtzoglou also added that "the echoes of the deleveraging process will continue for some time yet," citing the default of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

- Crypto trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that the market will face an exhaustion of sellers, and long-term investors will have the opportunity to purchase BTC in a price range that offers the maximum reward. “Historically, the 200-week moving average has been considered a bottom indicator for BTC. Things may be a little different in the current cycle. Instead of bottoming out at the SMA200, bitcoin could form a macro range below it. In fact, anything below will represent a peak buying opportunity,” wrote Rekt Capital.
The trader noted that while bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, the prerequisites for a new bull cycle will eventually open up: “Bitcoin may still be in the acceleration phase downtrend, and it will precede the stage of multi-month consolidation, followed by the stage of a new upward macro trend.”

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort believes that investing in bitcoin can protect investors' funds from inflation in the long run. “If you look beyond the 24-month horizon, you can definitely make money if you're lucky. If you take a three- or five-year period, I will be shocked if you do not make money, because the basic principles of bitcoin are unshakable,” he said, explaining that the supply of the first cryptocurrency is limited to 21 million digital coins, and inflation in the world continues to grow.
Belfort believes that bitcoin is now behaving like a tech stock, correlating with the Nasdaq index. However, investments by institutional investors in the first cryptocurrency cannot yet be called large-scale, since bitcoin is still in its infancy. For an extensive influx of institutional money into the crypto-currency sector, well-designed regulation of crypto-assets is necessary.
Recall that earlier Jordan Belfort was convicted of fraud related to the securities market. His memoir inspired director Martin Scorsese to create the famous film The Wolf of Wall Street. 

- Charles Erith, CEO of ByteTree investment company, believes that bitcoin and gold will be important components of investment portfolios for many years to come. Not because they are guaranteed to increase in price, but because they work as insurance against mistakes in an era of inflation. However, according to the financier, a lot depends on the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.

- The cost of bitcoin will fall under the pressure of the American factor in the coming months. The US economy is entering a recession, so capital will leave risky assets. This is the opinion of Timothy Peterson, investment manager from Cane Island Alternative Advisors. According to his calculations, the probability of a recession in the US has risen to 70% and the BTC price may collapse by 20% or even 40% by the end of summer.
The expert recalled that he had already predicted the continuation of the negative trend in the crypto market, and in the end he was right. The quarter turned out to be the worst for bitcoin in the last ten years.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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11attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:51 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Concerns about the crypto winter have not dampened investor interest in the industry. This is stated in the analytical report of Bank of America (BofA). “Customer engagement continues to grow. The focus continues to be on the rapid development of blockchain technology.” BofA believes regulatory clarity is critical to corporate and institutional outreach. Many are currently refraining from taking action until a comprehensive legal framework is in place.
Some participants in the BofA survey recalled that the most innovative projects came from previous market downturns. The low points of the cycle are "likely beneficial for the development of the ecosystem in the long run," they added.

- Cryptocurrency payments will become a reality in the future, but they are currently not economically efficient. This was stated in an interview with Cointelegraph by one of the directors of American Express, Gonzalo Pérez del Arco. According to him, crypto payments are not relevant for a number of reasons at the moment, including high transaction costs and the unwillingness of merchants to accept digital assets.

- The recession in the cryptocurrency market will last for about 18 more months, and the industry will see the first signs of recovery after the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. This was stated by the head and founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz in an interview with New York Magazine. “I hope we have already seen the worst. I would be more confident about this if I knew what inflation would be like in the next two quarters. [...] I think the Fed will have to abandon the rate hike by the fall, and I believe that will make people calm down and start building again,” said the head of Galaxy Digital.
According to Novogratz, the crisis has changed people's attitudes towards high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted that the past few months have shown the industry's dependence on leverage, which no one knew about. And it will take time now for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, the situation is similar to the global financial crisis of 2008, followed by a wave of consolidation in the investment and banking industries. 

- Mining companies in need of liquidity in Q3 are able to continue to exert downward pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. This is the conclusion reached by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou, Bloomberg writes. According to the expert's calculations, public mining companies account for about 20% of the hash rate. Many of them sold bitcoins to cover operating expenses and service loans. Due to the more limited access to capital, private miners took similar steps as well. “Unloading will continue in Q3, if the profitability of production does not improve. This was already evident in May and June. There is a risk that the process will continue,” the strategist believes.
According to Panigirtzoglou, the cost of mining 1 BTC dropped from $18,000-$20,000 at the beginning of the year to about $15,000 in June due to the introduction of more energy-efficient equipment.

- The first cryptocurrency is “technically oversold”, if you look at the current price in the context of the exponential growth in wallet activity and an increase in the number of use cases. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of the SkyBridge Capital investment fund. The hedge fund manager advised investors to evaluate bitcoin in retrospect. With this approach, the asset will turn out to be "very cheap due to excess leverage, which is worth taking advantage of."
Scaramucci was philosophical about the collapse of Terra, which he had supported, as well as Three Arrows Capital's liquidity problems. “I have seen such mistakes made several times,” he explained. According to the financier, during periods of "easy money", when new industries or technologies are being formed, young representatives of the sector "tend to lose relevance."

- Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen doubts that the forecasts for a high BTC rate for 2023 can come true. In particular, he spoke about the forecast of venture capital investor Tim Draper, according to which the price of bitcoin could grow by more than 1000% from current levels and reach $250,000.
“I used to believe that BTC would be above $100,000 by 2023, but now I am skeptical about this idea. Especially after the Fed's policy has changed so much over the past six months,” Cowen wrote. "I also look at other things, like social media statistics, and I see that the number of people interested in cryptocurrencies is in a downtrend. If it is difficult for people to buy gasoline, it will be even more difficult to buy bitcoin.”
Instead of a huge rally, Cowen predicts an uninteresting BTC market over the next two years: “I think the bear market will end this year, and then the accumulation phase will begin, as in 2015 and 2019. Then there will be slow preparations for the next bitcoin halving, and the Fed may lower interest rates due to the victory over inflation during this period.”

- According to the cryptanalytic platform CryptoQuant, most cyclical indicators (Bitcoin Puell Multiple, MVRV, SOPR and the MPI BTC Miner Position Index) indicate that bitcoin is close to the bottom. The readings of these indicators are based on a historical pattern that has preceded an uptrend several times. Indicators also suggest that bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. A significant amount of unrealized losses confirms this forecast.

- A crypto strategist with aka Dave the Wave, who had previously predicted the May collapse of bitcoin in 2021, expects to see a rapid increase in the BTC rate in the coming years. He uses a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model and believes that BTC can grow by 1100% within 4 years and reach $260,000. In the short term, Dave the Wave predicts the possibility of bitcoin rising to $25,000.

- Robert Kiyosaki predicted the collapse of the financial markets in autumn 2021. In his opinion, due to the actions of the US financial regulators, the value of all assets, including bitcoin, gold and securities, should have collapsed. Now, the author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad predicts another 95% drop in bitcoin and is waiting for bitcoin to drop to $1,100. And when “the losers capitulate and leave the market,” according to the economist, he will replenish his stocks of the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that Kiyosaki has previously repeatedly stated that the US dollar is dying, and called for buying more BTC, gold and silver, because, according to him, these assets help to ride out hard times.

- It is possible that the long-standing dispute over whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities will be put to an end. In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler stated that, according to his ideas, bitcoin meets all the characteristics of a commodity. The head of the SEC noted that his opinion concerns only bitcoin, and he is not going to discuss other cryptocurrencies.
A similar view was expressed a month earlier by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam, who also said that bitcoin and ethereum are commodities.
The cryptocurrency community enthusiastically supported the position: “This makes it almost impossible to change this classification in the future,” digital asset manager Eric Weiss tweeted.

- Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain company Red Date Technology, published an article comparing cryptocurrencies to pyramid schemes. He mentioned the May collapse of the Terra project, when the LUNA crypto asset fell to almost zero in just a few days, and the UST token lost its peg to the dollar.
In his opinion, all crypto assets are similar to a Ponzi scheme, it’s just that each has its own level of risk, depending on the market capitalization and the number of users. He added that he has never had a cryptocurrency wallet, has not bought cryptocurrencies and does not intend to buy them in the future. Even if digital assets become regulated by governments, this is unlikely to increase their value, He said.
The businessman believes that the authorities of El Salvador and the Central African Republic (CAR), who decided to legalize bitcoin, are in serious need of basic financial education. According to He, the leaders of these states put entire countries at risk, unless their original intention was to fraud their own citizens.

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12attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:51 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin supported The Daily Gwei creator Anthony Sassano, who called on the popular PlanB analyst to delete his account. The reason is the failure of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which PlanB has been actively promoting in recent years. 
“It's rude to gloat, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of confidence about asset growth are harmful and deserve ridicule,” Buterin wrote. The Ethereum co-founder added a chart to his post that shows a significant divergence between the real price of bitcoin and its S2F forecast.
PlanB reacted to Buterin's criticism with restraint. He said that in the aftermath of the crash, many are looking for scapegoats, including leaders. PlanB then presented a chart of five different bitcoin rate prediction models. According to the illustration, the most accurate picture is given by estimates based on the complexity and cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. The S2F model, in turn, offers an overly optimistic view.

- The internet is talking again about the death of bitcoin. The number of search queries on this topic has returned to its highest levels against the backdrop of the collapse in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The bitcoin dead request scored 93 points on Google Trends in the week ending June 18. This is just one point less than the maximum recorded in December 2017. Canada, Singapore and Australia are among the leaders among the “pessimists”. The United States and Nigeria follow them, even though the population there is much larger.

- Bitcoin's return to levels above $20,000 does not mean that it has bounced off the bottom. This was stated by Peter Schiff, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, President of Euro Pacific Capital. According to this gold supporter, the $20,000 mark will be the same “bull trap” as the $30,000 level was before. “Nothing falls in a straight line. In fact, it's a very orderly crash in slow motion. There is no sign of capitulation so far, which usually forms the bottom of a bear market,” Schiff said.
The head of Euro Pacific Capital had said Earlier that the collapse of the cryptocurrency market is good for the economy. He also added that even if digital assets have a future, bitcoin will never be part of it. Recall that Peter Schiff predicted back in May that bitcoin would test $8,000. And the investor suggested in mid-June that the minimum could be even lower, around $5,000.

- El Salvador President Nayib Bukele advised bitcoin investors not to worry about the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” he wrote.
In response, the aforementioned Peter Schiff stated that Bukele's advice was as bad as his "buy the top" recommendation. The latter is likely a reference to the "buy the dip" stock exchange slogan that Bukele often mentioned.
For reference, there are 2,301 BTC in El Salvador's public bitcoin fund, purchased at an average price of $43,900. Thus, at the moment, the loss on them has amounted to about 55%.

- An analyst aka Capo, who had correctly predicted the collapse of the cryptocurrency market this year, updated his forecast for top crypto assets. According to him, investors are fooling themselves into believing that a short-term rally means bitcoin has reached the bottom of the cycle. According to Capo, bitcoin is only rising because investors are liquidating their holdings of altcoins and investing in BTC in order to exit it: “Bull trap. Funds from altcoins flow into BTC, which will also be sold, but a little later. There is no bottom yet." The analyst shared his updated forecast regarding the fall levels of these assets: BTC is expected to decline to $16,200, and ETH to $750.

- According to crypto strategist Kevin Svenson, bitcoin has a chance to bottom in the $17,000-18,000 range, after which a short-term rally to above $30,000 could occur. At the same time, although Svenson expects this short-term growth, he does not see the prerequisites for launching a new bull market in the near future: “Overcoming the main downward resistance is the main obstacle and the process may last until the end of the year.”
According to the strategist, after the breakthrough of the diagonal resistance, bitcoin can trade in a narrow range for several months and start a new uptrend only by 2024 year.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen proposed his bottom search model for bitcoin. He believes that the bottom can be predicted based on the correlation of inflation, the S&P 500 stock index and the BTC price. The analyst argues that the S&P 500 index does not historically sink to the very bottom until inflation peaks and reverses. Accordingly, BTC cannot reach the bottom for the same reason. “Macroeconomic indicators look incredibly bleak at the moment. If you go back to the 1970s, you'll see a very similar type of move where the S&P bottomed just as inflation hit its first peak. By this point, the S&P was down about 50%,” writes Cowen.

- Shark Tank business TV show co-host Kevin O'Leary says big companies shouldn't be afraid of bankruptcy during the crypto winter, as their departure forms a promising market bottom. “This is good for all other companies as they will learn from this. I think we will soon see a wave of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency market. I don't know who it will be, but I assure you that I have seen it before. Later you will recognize those who have taken a high-risk position. They have been destroyed, and that's good,” said the millionaire.
Crypto channel InvestAnswers, in turn, named 3 possible catalysts for the market collapse. The BTC price may fall even more if MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor decides to sell the bitcoins in the company's reserves. In addition, the potential collapse of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and the problems of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital may also contribute to further capitulation of BTC. According to InvestAnswers, we should not forget about the possible sale of crypto assets by Tesla.
MicroStrategy reported a $1.2 billion loss last week due to the fall of bitcoin. As for the Three Arrows Capital fund, it now has about $2.4 billion left in assets out of $18 billion.

- Despite the low current rate of bitcoin, many participants in the crypto industry believe in its future growth. For example, there is a belief that BTC could reach $100,000 by 2025. Bloomberg Senior Strategist Mike McGlone is one of them. He has no doubt that the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and, in particular, bitcoin, can lead to a rise in the price of BTC to six figures.
Cryptocurrency is about 1% of the total market capitalization of all stocks on the planet. It was only 0.01% just a few years ago. According to Mike McGlone, this indicates a growing adoption of the new asset class. In addition, investors tend to buy gold during inflation, but now they have a digital alternative to it. Another reason is that the adoption of the asset occurs against the background of a reduction in its emission. This allowed the expert to conclude that prices could skyrocket in the coming years.

- The fall of bitcoin was one of the factors stimulating the growth in the number of addresses in the network with a balance of more than one coin. Glassnode estimates that investors stepped up in May and June during each pullback. In the last week alone, the number of such holders increased by 13,091. There are currently 865,254 addresses holding more than 1 BTC. 
The number of small bitcoin holders has also grown significantly. The number of wallets holding at least 0.1 BTC has come close to 3.06 million since the beginning of last week. However, the number of "whales" with a balance of more than 100 coins has on the contrary decreased by 136 addresses.

- The Bangkok police arrested a suspect in a jewellery store robbery. According to Thai PBS, the man stole gold jewellery worth about 1.8 million baht (over $50,000) at gunpoint. After his arrest, he told the police that he was under great stress and was in dire need of money since he had recently suffered large losses from investing in bitcoin.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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13attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:31 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The collapse of the cryptocurrency market on June 13 and 14 was not caused by the announcement of the Celsius Network crypto-lending platform to suspend the withdrawal of funds, but by the general negative macroeconomic background. This opinion was expressed by industry participants in a survey conducted by The Block.
Celsius suspended withdrawals, exchanges, and transfers between accounts on June 13 “due to extreme market conditions.” As of May, the platform managed $11 billion in user assets.
However, many experts believe that the crypto markets “would have fallen regardless of Celsius.” Bloomberg notes that the market has entered "a period of selling everything except the dollar." Traders are leaving for a "safe harbor", fearing that due to rising inflation, the US Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates more aggressively than was previously expected. Wall Street analysts believe that the rate will rise in June by 1.0% straight away, and not by 0.5%. Such a result could have negative implications for risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Against this background, the price of bitcoin fell to $20,000 on June 15, ethereum fell to $1,000, and the crypto market capitalization fell to $0.86 trillion. Recall that it reached $2.97 7 months ago, in November 2021.

- The widespread adoption of the first cryptocurrency may occur faster than previous innovative technologies and reach 10% by 2030. This is stated in the Blockware Intelligence study.
Analysts studied the historical curves of adoption of cars, electricity, the Internet and social networks, as well as the pace of bitcoin adoption since 2009. “All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve […] but new network technologies continue to be introduced much faster than the market expects,” the report says. However, Blockware Intelligence emphasizes that the model used at this stage is just a concept and is not an investment recommendation.

- Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal also compared the rate of adoption of cryptocurrencies by society with the development of the Internet. The macroeconomist concluded that the slowdown in the development of the industry will begin in four years. He stated that “if the pace of development of the industry remains at the same level, we will have five or four billion people using cryptocurrency by 2030.”

- Well-known trader and analyst Tony Weiss believes that the real capitulation for bitcoin will take place soon. Weiss reviewed the Bitcoin Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI), which predicts trend lifecycles based on an asset's momentum. According to him, MRI points to a few more days (4-5) of falling, after which a market reversal may occur.
According to Weiss, most likely, the BTC rate will not fall below $19,000. But a further fall is not ruled out: “Is it possible to reach $17,180? I think so. But if the downward movement continues, the next level could be around $14,000. In my opinion, bitcoin will not fall so much, and the lowest level will be $19,000,” the expert believes.

- Bank of America analyst Jason Kupferberg told CNBC in an interview that the bank conducted a large survey among Americans in June 2022. The expert noted that about 90% of respondents answered unequivocally that they plan to buy a certain amount of cryptocurrency over the next few months. It is noteworthy that Bank of America itself does not yet plan to provide digital currency trading services.
The survey also showed that the majority of respondents had previously acted as short-term investors. About 77% of them held digital coins in their portfolio for less than one year. Almost a third spoke in favor of the fact that they are not going to sell their assets for the next six months.
According to Jasonf Kupferberg, this user interest is due to the increase in the number of crypto-fiat products. For example, the appearance of the Coinbase Visa card has significantly simplified the process of exchanging digital assets for fiat money. He also confirmed that cryptocurrencies are closely correlated with high-risk assets like stocks of fast-growing technology corporations.

- The American Express international payment service, together with the Abra crypto company, will offer its customers a Crypto Rewards credit card with cryptocurrency bonuses. According to public information, cardholders will be rewarded for purchases of any amount in more than 100 different cryptocurrencies supported by Abra, with no fees for transactions.

- The bear market upsets all investors. But the two largest institutional bitcoin holders have been particularly distinguished. They lost a total of about $1.4 billion on this asset. According to the analytical resource, almost 130,000 bitcoins owned by Microstrategy and 43,200 bitcoins owned by Tesla made their owners significantly poorer (we are talking about an unrealized loss yet).
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor spent almost $4 billion ($3,965,863,658) on 129,218 BTC, which is approximately 0.615% of the total issuance of the first cryptocurrency. The fall in the price of bitcoin depreciated the company's investment to $3.1 billion, thus the loss amounted to $900 million. Apart from this, Microstrategy shares also fell to their lowest levels in recent months.
The investment of Elon Mask, whose car company Tesla bought more than 40,000 bitcoins during the 2021 bull market, has also taken a big hit. He lost about $500 million on his investments.

- Anthony Scaramucci, founder of $3.5 billion investment fund SkyBridge Capital, shared his thoughts on the current bear market. In an interview with CNBC, he called what was happening "a bloodbath", adding that he managed to survive seven "bear" markets. The former politician and White House communications director hopes he will be able to "get out" of the eighth one as well.
“I am encouraged by the fact that bitcoin exceeds currently 50% of the total market capitalization of the crypto market. This is another sign that proves its value,” said Scaramucci, recommending that investors keep buying bitcoin and stay calm. The financier believes that it is better to stick to a long-term investment strategy, but at the same time do without borrowed funds.
“All cryptoassets have a long-term perspective as long as they don’t face short-term losses. Then investors begin to tear their hair out and bang against the wall. It is better to buy a quality crypto asset (BTC or ETH) without being distracted by others, and maintain discipline without looking back at the bear markets that sometimes happen. If you remain calm during these periods, you will get rich,” says SkyBridge Capital's managing partner.

- The collapse of the bitcoin rate did not lead to a quick recovery. However, bulls have managed to protect an important level so far. We are talking about the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which served as a strong support in all previous bear market phases. Bitcoin has never managed to gain a foothold below this line so far. (By "gaining a foothold" traders mean the closing of the candle below a certain level). After dropping to almost $20,000, there was a quick rebound that took the price above the critical $20,400 mark.
Big buying saved the day, according to Material Indicators analysts, but “it's still too early to tell if support can be sustained. The eyes of the entire market are focused on the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on June 15 at 22:00 CET, at which a decision will be made to increase the key interest rate.

- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index BTC fell to 7 points out of 100 ahead of the FOMC meeting, which is comparable to March 2020 values. Then the price of bitcoin bottomed out at $3,800. According to Arcane Research analysts, the index has been in the Fear zone for 56 days, which is a record. “Market participants are undoubtedly tired of this, many capitulate. Historically, buying has been a profitable strategy in times of fear. However, it is not easy to catch a falling knife,” the researchers shared their thoughts.
The company noted that $20,000 is a critical level for bitcoin in the context of technical analysis. “Therefore, a possible visit below this level could lead to the capitulation of many hodlers and deleverages.” There is also significant open interest in bitcoin options around the $20,000 mark. This is a factor of additional pressure on the spot market if the above level does not withstand the onslaught of bears.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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14attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:08 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The PayPal payment company has opened the option of transferring bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin) between client accounts, as well as their withdrawal to third-party wallets. This option will be supported for all US customers in the coming weeks. PayPal Vice President Richard Nash said earlier that the company is making every effort to integrate blockchain and cryptocurrencies into its services.

- 202 new Bitcoin ATMs were installed globally in May according to Coin ATM Radar. The last time the indicator was at such low values was in 2019. The slowdown in device installations began in January 2022. However, in June, the trend changed to positive: 863 crypto-ATMs were already available in the first days of the month. Currently, there are 37,836 such devices in the world. The United States holds the leading position: 87.9% of the total number of cryptocurrency ATMs are concentrated there.

- Bitcoin’s short-term volatility doesn’t matter as long as there is an understanding of the fundamentals of the leading cryptocurrency and how difficult it is to create something better. This opinion was expressed by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor in an interview with The Block. “Bitcoin is the most reliable thing in a very volatile world. It is more reliable than other 19,000 cryptocurrencies, than any shares, than owning property anywhere in the world,” the top manager emphasized.
Commenting on the collapse of Terra and the subsequent market correction, the head of MicroStrategy doubted that what was happening was evidence of a bearish phase. “I don’t know if this is a bear market or not, but if it is, we have had three of them in the last 24 months,” he stressed.
Saylor added that he prefers not to get carried away by short-term prices. According to him, people who pay too much attention to the charts, "guess on coffee grounds." “If you don’t plan to hold it [bitcoin] for four years, you are not an investor at all, you are a trader, and my advice to traders is: don’t trade it, invest in it,” the businessman concluded.

- Consumers lost more than $1 billion in digital asset fraud from January 2021 to March 2022. This is stated in the report of the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The agency cited 46,000 people who reported the hoax. “Nearly half of the consumers who reported cryptocurrency fraud said it started with an ad, a post, or a social media message,” the FTC said.
According to the press release, victims of fictitious investment schemes have lost more than others: $ 575 million since January last year. Scams related to dating and romantic relationships are in the second place. The third are fake representatives of companies or of the government. The average amount lost was $2,600. Most often, victims transferred bitcoins (70%), USDT (10%) and Ethereum (9%) to scammers.

- Katie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest with assets of $60 billion, predicts a significant growth in bitcoin. According to her, network indicators hint that BTC is forming a bottom. “According to our data, short-term holders have capitulated, and this is great news in terms of hitting the bottom. The share of long-term holders is at an all-time high: 65.7% (they hold BTC for at least a year). Although there is still a possibility of capitulation of some of them to mark the bottom.
In addition to network indicators, Wood is watching the bitcoin futures market, hinting at a period of increased volatility for the asset. “It is still difficult to say exactly which direction it will go, but we believe that there is a high probability of the next burst of volatility in the upward direction.”
Despite some optimism, one has to exercise caution after the collapse of Terra (LUNA). “At the same time, we are on the alert,” says the CEO of ARK Invest. “Terra’s collapse was a fiasco for cryptocurrencies, and regulators have more reason to impose tighter restrictions than anticipated.”

- Crypto analyst Justin Bennett, giving a forecast for the coming weeks, hinted at a repetition of the June 2021 chart. According to him, the immediate line of defense for the bulls is $28,600. If the asset goes below this level, it risks revisiting the May lows at $26,580-26,910.
According to the analyst, if bitcoin follows the June 2021 scenario, it will form new lows for the current year: “In the event of a sell-off, the downward movement could go to the $24,000-25,000 range. But I do not think that this will be the minimum of the current cycle.”
After the formation of a new annual low, Bennett predicts some growth for bitcoin. “Most likely it will be a short-term rally to a lower macro high.” According to his calculations, the BTC price in July could rise to $35,000 during this short-term growth.

- Jurrien Timmer, macro analyst and director of investment company Fidelity, has updated his long-term forecast for the BTC rate. He refers to the once popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model of an analyst with the nickname PlanB, according to which the price of BTC was predicted based on supply shocks caused by asset halvings. However, he added to the S2F model two more models that track the rate of adoption of the Internet and mobile phones.
According to Timmer, based on the mobile phone adoption model, the price of bitcoin could rise sharply to $144,753 by 2025 (about a year after the next halving). But if BTC follows the pace of Internet adoption, then it turns out that the asset has already peaked and can trade at only $47,702 in 3 years. The average value derived from Timmer's modified supply model was $63,778.

- American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called cryptocurrencies a scam, comparing them to the real estate crisis in 2008. In an interview with Fox News, he mentioned the movie The Big Short, which tells the story of the financial crisis of the 2000s, which resulted from the collapse of the real estate market. Real estate prices were extremely high, but this did not stop people. The same situation is happening in the cryptocurrency market, Krugman explained.
The economist criticized people who claim that crypto assets are the future of finance. According to Krugman, bitcoin, which appeared in 2009, has not yet found significant practical use over the years, except for use in illegal activities.
“Cryptocurrencies have become a large asset class, and their supporters are increasing their political influence. Therefore, it sounds implausible to many that cryptocurrencies have no real value. But this is only a house built on sand. I remember the housing bubble and the mortgage crisis, so I can say that we have gone from a big short game to a big scam,” said the Nobel laureate.

- According to Reuters, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has laundered $2.35 billion of illegal funds in 5 years. The transactions involved hacks, investment fraud, and illegal drug sales. So, the crypto exchange has been processing transactions of the world's largest drug market, the Hydra darknet website, during all these years. Reuters relied on court records, law enforcement statements and blockchain data in its statement.

- American investment strategist Lyn Alden said that bitcoin is now one of the most reliable assets, along with gold and real estate. The macroeconomist added that she does not expect inflation to fall anytime soon as the US continues to print money to meet its financial obligations.
“Most of my holdings are in long-term hard assets such as shares of pipeline energy companies, profitable producers of real products, bitcoin, some gold, various types of exchange-traded instruments and real estate,” explained Lynn Alden and added that such a diversified set of real assets not only has the necessary liquidity, but also allows her to rebalance the portfolio at any time if there are problems in the global market.

- Bloomberg expert Mike McGlone believes that the highest in the last 40 years inflation is starting, which will cause the largest economic crisis, after which assets such as cryptocurrencies, US bonds and gold will show unprecedented growth. He stated in an interview to Kitco News that "this may be reminiscent of the consequences of 1929. Although I am more inclined to the version that it will be more like the consequences of the 2008 crisis or maybe the consequences of the 1987 crash.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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15attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Jun 01, 2022 6:00 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Bitcoin remains an asset free from interference from governments and corporations, inspiring confidence “in this uncertain world.” The head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor stated this in an interview with Fox News. In his opinion, the markets have entered bearish territory: bonds act as derivatives of currency, losing their value along with shares in conditions of high inflation.
The top manager noted that in such an extremely emotional market, the investor needs the protection that the first cryptocurrency can provide. “Two years after the crisis began, the money supply in the United States has increased by 36%. Gold has risen in price by 7%. The S&P index has risen by 29%, the Nasdaq index - by 19%. Bitcoin has added 229% in price,” he explained. 
Saylor noted that as soon as he or the company has extra money, he will continue to invest in this cryptocurrency. MicroStrategy currently holds 129,218 BTC worth about $4 billion.

- An analyst at crypto channel InvestAnswers has looked at 3 likely price points for bitcoin that it could reach by 2030. He considered the market capitalization of gold and believes that in the end, bitcoin will be able to reach 40%, 60% or 100% of the capitalization of the precious metal. In this case, the price of BTC could be around $515,000, $786,000 or $1,300,000, respectively, by 2030. If we take a combination of all 3 aforementioned rate benchmarks, the average expected target is around $867,000. 
And the analyst determined another target level by choosing the average value of a selection of forecasts from Fidelity, ARK Invest and other companies. By combining some of the well-known crypto models, he came to the BTC rate around $1,555,000 per 1 coin.

- According to a report by analyst firm Glassnode, long-term BTC holders are the only ones who didn’t lose their heads in the bear market and continue to buy the asset around the $30,000 mark. The current accumulation process mainly involves wallet owners with balances of less than 100 BTC and more than 10,000 BTC. The volumes of the former have increased by 80,724 BTC, the latter - by 46.269 BTC. The BTC accumulation trend indicator has returned over the past few weeks to a near-perfect value of above 0.9. And, despite the sale of some long-term BTC holders, the total volumes held in their wallets have returned to an all-time high of 13.048 million BTC. 
At the same time, the total number of wallets with non-zero balances indicates the absence of new buyers. A similar situation was observed after the May 2021 sale. Unlike the sales of March 2020 and November 2018, followed by a surge in online activity and new bullruns, the latest sale does not yet boast an influx of new users. 

- Crypto analyst under the nickname Capo, who had previously predicted the fall of bitcoin below $30,000, considers the current small rally to be a typical bull trap. Capo himself still expects a significant decline in altcoins and BTC in the near future: “My opinion has not changed, and I expect altcoins to fall by 40-60%, and bitcoin by 25-30%. Then it will take 1 to 3 months to recover.”
The analyst noted that the S&P 500 index is now in the region of a strong resistance level. And this could be the reason for the resumption of the bearish trend for both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

- Another crypto strategist and trader, Kevin Swanson, predicts bitcoin will continue to rise to $37,000 in the coming weeks, which will alternate with sharp declines.
Swanson's take on bitcoin's upward bounce is based on his thesis that BTC made a temporary bottom around $26,700 earlier this month. “Looking at this 2021 low [$29,000], one would think that bitcoin is unlikely to go lower. This makes me think that this bottom [$26,700] could act as a long-term support zone.”

- Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius crypto company, believes that the fall in the market has been too long and cryptocurrencies are waiting for a bullish trend with an eight-fold increase in bitcoin. In an interview with Kitco News, he stated that the cryptocurrency markets will recover and even inflation will not be a long-term problem for them. "You can push the spring as hard as you want, but the harder you push, the more it bounces." 
The head of Celsius recalled that “when bitcoin recovers, it usually rises five to eight times compared to where it was. Or even more. At the same time, the stock market will only grow by 30-50-70%. Thus, the rebound of cryptocurrencies is always stronger, forward to new higher highs.”
Mashinsky noted that even large investment bankers are increasingly involved in cryptocurrency. “Even JPMorgan, which usually doesn't talk about cryptocurrency, released a report the other day claiming that panic may be exaggerated and is expected to rebound to $38,000 from where we we are today.”

- According to a study by the largest US bank JPMorgan, the dynamics of the volatility of gold and bitcoin caught up and they began to move in unison. This can be seen both in the charts of the last three months and half a year. Moreover, experts do not exclude the possibility that in the future, the capitalization of the two investment assets will be equal, since in the eyes of investors, bitcoin is more in line with the role of a hedge asset.
At the same time, despite the fact that the general dynamics of volatilities for bitcoin and gold is almost identical, the number 1 cryptocurrency still has a larger range of price fluctuations. Therefore, JPMorgan believes that reducing the volatility of bitcoin is an important condition for bringing its capitalization closer to the total capitalization of gold.

- Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim, commented on the JPMorgan study at the Davos Forum. According to his analysis, the “fundamental price of bitcoin” is in the region of $400,000. Such a high estimate is due to the effect of the "unrestrained printing of US dollars" by the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, he believes that the market may see a bottom for bitcoin in the $8,000 area.
According to Minerd, institutional investors have not yet fully appreciated the potential of bitcoin. The image of the flagship is a bit obscured by the fact that "we see that there are 19 thousand types of digital assets, but most of them do not really represent any real value."

- Ki Young Ju, head of market data platform CryptoQuant, believes BTC will not fall below $20,000. This statement was supported by the expert with the remark that "support by institutional investors is at an unprecedented high level."
Ju provided data on the operation of the custodial service for storing digital assets of the Coinbase Custody exchange. According to the charts, the volume of bitcoins under management has continuously increased for 5 quarters, from October 2020 to December 2021. The increase was 296% at the end of the period, reaching 2.2 million BTC.
The analyst also demonstrated a decrease in digital storage stocks in the first quarter of this year, for the first time since the end of 2020. This, according to the head of CryptoQuant, was a reaction to the weakening of the market ability to support the price of the leading asset. However, 1.4 million BTC remains in general storage at the moment.
Based on the data obtained, Ju concluded that in order to reduce the cost of BTC to the level of $20,000, it is necessary to sell off all the capital accumulated during the period of consolidation to the level of 500 thousand dollars. BTC.   According to the crypto analyst, institutions are not yet ready for this step. The expert added that the value of the coin is likely to have already reached the bottom of this decline cycle.

- “I want cryptocurrencies to disappear,” these are the words of Dogecoin co-founder Jackson Palmer, who is famous for his scandalous statements, who believes that digital currencies are a technology for tax evasion and government oversight.
Palmer would like the Terra crash to end cryptography, “but it didn't happen.” According to him, “more and more people do nothing, earning money on doing nothing”. “Honestly, I thought the crypto market would explode a lot faster and people would learn their lesson. But in the past six months, I have noticed a continued insistence on investing in cryptocurrencies from companies with big money, which means that the process is not slowing down. We have stopped developing.”
However, Palmer now sees that "there is a revival coming because people are losing money." “I think that there will be a catastrophe in the cryptocurrency market that will be much more painful than before, and unfortunately, most of those who are at the bottom of the socio-economic hierarchy will suffer.”
Despite Dogecoin's successes, Palmer does not have the best opinion of Tesla CEO Elon Musk: “He's a scam, he's selling his vision in the hope that one day he can deliver what he promises. But he doesn't know for sure. He's just really good at pretending to know."

- Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, amid the recent fall of altcoins, continues to believe that cryptocurrencies like Ethereum will deprive bitcoin of leadership in the future. The macroeconomist agrees that BTC is the best crypto asset and outperforms ETH in terms of market cap, trading volume, and number of active wallets. “However, if you look at the development of Ethereum, the rate of growth in the number of wallets and transactions in the last couple of years has far outstripped bitcoin, and this is really beneficial for the development of the industry.”

- Venture capitalist Tim Draper confirmed his prediction that the price of bitcoin will exceed six figures in the coming months. In a new interview, he reiterated that the coin will reach a price of $250,000 "by the end of this year or the beginning of next". Tim Draper believes that women will drive the adoption and growth of bitcoin, and the fact that they will increasingly use this cryptocurrency for purchases will be a catalyst.
“Recently we had 1 woman for 14 bitcoin holders, now it's something like 1 to 6. And I think there will be more eventually. What I mean is that women control about 80% of retail spending. If suddenly all women have crypto wallets and they buy things with bitcoins, everything will change. And you will see the price of the coin, which will surpass my estimate of $250,000,” the investor said.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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16attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed May 25, 2022 5:53 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The collapse of LUNA and the general weakening of the market affected the expectations of crypto derivatives market participants. According to Glassnode, the ratio of open puts and calls in bitcoin has increased from 50% to 70%, indicating an increased desire of investors to secure positions from continued negative dynamics.
The largest open interest (OI) in call contracts with expiration at the end of July this year is concentrated around the $40,000 mark. However, participants give the greatest preference to put options, which will bring profit in case of price reduction to $25,000, $20,000 and $15,000. In other words, until the middle of the year, the market focuses on hedging risks and/or speculating on a further price reduction.
Optimists predominate over the longer distance. Contracts maturing at the end of the year have the most open positions in the range of $70,000 to $100,000. In the put option, the largest OI is concentrated between $25,000 and $30,000, that is, it is in the zone of current values.

- The rate of burning ethereum through EIP-1559 fell to a record low. 2,370 ETH was withdrawn from circulation Last week, which is 50% less than in early May. The share of coins not subjected to this procedure reached a record 81.6%, which has also put pressure on the price.

- Most Americans consider digital assets as an investment tool, not a means of payment. This is stated in the annual Fed report on the state of US households. According to the document, 12% of adult citizens of the country have owned or interacted with cryptocurrencies. But only 2% have used them for purchases, and only 1% have used them to send funds.

- Against the background of the increase in the key interest rate and the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, the price of bitcoin may fall below $8,000. Guggenheim Partners investment director Scott Minerd said this in an interview with CNBC. “When you “break through the $30,000 level, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom. So, I think we still have a lot of room to decline, especially with the Fed acting tough,” he said.
The investment director of the Guggenheim compared the situation in the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. According to him, most digital assets are “junk”, but bitcoin and ethereum will survive the crypto winter.
Minerd emphasized that the digital asset industry has not yet come to the right design for cryptocurrencies. In his opinion, the currency should store value, be a means of exchange and a unit of account. “There is nothing like that, they [cryptocurrencies] have not even come to a single basis,” he concluded.

- The PayPal payment company is making every effort to implement “all possible” integrations with blockchain and cryptocurrencies into its services. This was stated by PayPal's Vice President Richard Nash during the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We are looking to work with other [projects] to cover everything we can, whether it be the coins we have today in PayPal digital wallets, private digital currencies or CBDCs in the future,” Nash said.
The payments giant’s VP also hinted that he has also invested in crypto assets: “I have a lot of things that I work on at PayPal and I enjoy using the services myself, so I think it’s natural.”

- Unidentified people hacked into the Twitter account of Mike Winkelman, an artist known under the pseudonym Beeple, posting phishing links on it. Users were invited to a website purporting to be Beeple's partnership with Louis Vuitton fashion house.
Clicking on this link resulted in an unauthorized withdrawal of funds from the user's wallet. The cybercriminals got 135 ETH and 45 NFTs worth about $438,000. The hackers retained control of the artist's account for approximately five hours before he managed to get it back.

- The crypto strategist aka Credible believes that, despite the general bearish mood in the markets, BTC is ready to take off. According to him, bitcoin has been in a bull market for the last decade, and the bear markets of 2014 and 2018 became periods of correction: “After the peaks of 2013 and 2017, there were major bear markets and it took 3 years to return to the highs. The current corrections are somewhat smaller, and this will be proven when BTC soars to new all-time highs in a few months.”
Credible uses the Elliott wave theory for technical analysis, which predicts the behavior of the rate based on the psychology of the crowd, which manifests itself in the form of waves. This theory assumes that a bull market cycle goes through 5 impulse waves, with the asset correcting during the 2nd and 4th waves and rallying during the 1st, 3rd and 5th waves. In addition, each major wave consists of 5 smaller sub-waves.
According to the analyst, bitcoin is now in the middle of the main 5th wave that began at the start of 2019. In addition, BTC is currently still in the 5th sub-wave, which can push the asset to a new all-time high above $100,000. “I understand that my approach is controversial,” says Credible. “Most do not expect a new record high until the next halving in 2024, and I expect it sooner.”

- According to another crypto analyst nicknamed Rager, given the length of BTC’s bearish cycles in 2014 and 2018, the asset has a long way to go to the bottom, from 6 to 8 months. “If BTC is declining and rebounding from the 200-week moving average, as in past bearish cycles, then this is a good sign. There will be a decline of only 68% from the maximum, although it had reached 84% in the past. If we take the current realities, a pullback of 84% will lead to the rate of $11,000.”
Rager believes that the price of bitcoin will depend on the strength or weakness of the US stock market in the short term: “You should not look at the bitcoin chart, it is better to watch the chart of the S&P 500 index. There is limited upside potential for BTC right now, but it won’t get stronger until the stock markets turn around.”

- Rekt Capital, one of the most followed analysts on Twitter with over 300,000 followers, has warned that bitcoin could briefly drop 28% below its 200-week moving average. He explained that this SMA is playing the role of an ever-growing latest support. Bitcoin has fallen below this line in the past, but these periods of capitulation were very short-lived. The weekly candlestick has never closed below this SMA yet, but its shadows were as high as 28%. If this happens again now, the cryptocurrency rate will be at the level of $15,500. The 200-week moving average is currently in the $22,000 zone.

- Galaxy Digital CEO and bitcoin proponent Mike Novogratz believes that even despite a significant drop from their all-time highs, altcoins risk losing more than half of their value.
Novogratz defines the outlook for the entire financial market as bleak, which means that a further decline in crypto assets should be expected. However, despite the bearish macroeconomic background, the head of Galaxy Digital remains optimistic and believes in the recovery of the crypto market in the future: “Cryptocurrency is not going away. The number of new users is not decreasing, the pace of creating decentralized infrastructure is not slowing down, the GDP of projects in the metaverse is growing. The crypto community is resilient, it believes in innovation and believes that the markets still provide early entry opportunities.”

- The analytical company Santiment has published the data of its Weighted indicator, which calculates negative and positive comments on an asset in social networks. Based on this information, a kind of mood of the crypto community is determined. According to the readings of this instrument, bitcoin has already reached the global bottom and can be expected to rise in the coming weeks.
“History shows that prices most often rise when investor sentiment is low. Now is the moment when bitcoin has every chance of a limited strengthening,” analysts at Santiment believe.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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17attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed May 18, 2022 6:02 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Due to the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, investors need more protection, otherwise they may lose confidence in the markets. This was stated by the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler. As a rule, buyers of cryptocurrencies do not receive the amount of information that is typical for other asset classes, the official said. For example, this applies to the trading platforms they use or whether users actually own funds in their digital wallets.
According to him, cryptocurrency markets are considered decentralized, but in reality, most of the activity takes place on a few large trading platforms. Regarding crypto platforms, he recalled the need to comply with the basic principles of the market, such as “fighting fraud, countering manipulation and insider practices, ensuring a real, not fictitious, order book.” Gensler noted that the SEC will continue to work to cover all types of cryptocurrencies with supervision. “There is a lot to be done here, and investors are not so well protected so far,” he concluded.

- FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried questioned bitcoin's ability to become a popular payment system due to the inefficiency and high environmental costs of its blockchain. This is reported by the Financial Times. The top manager pointed out that it is not possible to scale the network “to millions of transactions” [per second]. “Blockchain must be extremely efficient, lightweight and have low energy costs. We should not scale bitcoin to such an extent that the consumption of electricity by miners has increased a hundred times,” he explained. The CEO of FTX, who is already being called the “new Zuckerberg”, stressed that the first cryptocurrency can remain in the status of an asset, a commodity and a store of value.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki called the bitcoin crash “great news” and predicted a test of the $17,000 level. “As I said earlier, I expect bitcoin to fall to $20,000. Then we will wait for the bottom test, which may be $17,000. Once that happens, I'll go big. Crises are the best time to get rich,” he said.
Earlier, Robert Kiyosaki explained sarcastically why he is confident in the long-term success of digital gold: “Bitcoin will win because America is led by three puppets.” He ranked US President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell among them.

- Crypto strategist known as DonAlt believes that after breaking the key psychological support area of $30,000, Bitcoin is ready to show a serious move. “Over the next 3 months, we will either see the capitulation that everyone is waiting for, or bitcoin will close the range and start moving up to $58,000,” the expert writes. – In my opinion, the probability of going down is higher. According to my calculations, the next support is at $14,000, after which a recovery of more than 2 times to the high of the range is possible.”
DonAlt noted that the current structure of the bitcoin market may hint that the bottom has already been reached. However, he fears the strong correlation of BTC with the stock market and the possibility of a collapse in the S&P 500 index.
The trader known as Rekt Capital agreed with the opinion that bitcoin is expected to fall further. The specialist believes that the coin needs to lose another 25% of its value before the expected local minimum.

- One of the main critics of bitcoin, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff believes that the cryptocurrency has an opportunity for a further strong fall. The businessman drew attention to the fact that bitcoin has lost an important support level near $33,000. And the cryptocurrency will have to fall to $8,000 to touch the next level. “The support line has been broken. There is a high probability of movement to the lower support line. The chart shows two patterns at once: a double top and a head-shoulders pattern. This is an ominous combination. We have a long way down,” Peter Schiff wrote on his blog.

- But an analyst nicknamed Pentoshi expects a bitcoin rally soon, as the situation, in his opinion, is in favor of the bulls. According to Pentoshi, the bears are making serious efforts to lower the price of bitcoin, but they are not succeeding in achieving the desired result. “A lot of coins change hands with a lot of effort. But do the sellers receive appropriate remuneration? It doesn't look like it.
As an example, he looked at an inverted chart of bitcoin, which shows extremely high trading volume, coupled with a small exchange rate movement. As Pentoshi believes, the failure of the bears to depreciate BTC despite strong selling pressure suggests that the momentum is about to turn in favor of the bulls.

- During a discussion of the impact of cryptocurrencies on the country's economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said that they could lead to dollarization, as well as have a negative impact on the banking system. Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that "this seriously undermines the RBI's ability to control the country's monetary policy."
The official fears that cryptocurrencies can become a medium of exchange and replace the national currency in financial transactions both domestically and abroad. “Almost all cryptocurrencies are denominated in dollars and are issued by foreign individuals. This, in the end, can lead to the dollarization of part of our economy, which is contrary to the sovereign interests of the country,” Shaktikanta Das said.
According to various estimates, there are from 15 to 20 million cryptocurrency investors in India with a total volume of crypto assets of about $5.34 billion.

- The cryptocurrency market has recently been actively selling coins, as investors get rid of risky assets amid global economic turmoil. Cryptocurrency billionaires have suffered the most.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's net worth has decreased from $13.7 billion to $2.2 billion. This was not only due to the fall in digital asset prices, but also due to the fall in Coinbase shares, the price of which fell by more than 80%.¬ The capital of the CEO of the FTX crypto exchange Sam Bankman-Fried has halved and now stands at $11.3 billion. The well-known founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency trading platform, the brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have individually lost more than $2 billion, which is equivalent to almost 40% of their total fortune.

- American billionaire investor Bill Miller announced in January that half of his capital was invested in the largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. And now some of his coins were sold on a margin call. 
In an interview with CNBC, the head of Miller Value Partners said he still remains bullish for the long term. According to him, for the first time he bought an asset in the range of $200-300 and during this time he went through at least three drops in BTC by more than 80%. Despite this, he still views bitcoin as an insurance policy against financial disaster.

- The US Department of State, the Treasury Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have issued a joint warning stating that North Korean IT professionals are trying to get jobs in cryptocurrency projects by posing as citizens of other countries. The authorities have noticed that coders from the DPRK pretend to be citizens of the United States very often.
The statement emphasizes that many of them receive income that contributes to the creation of weapons of mass destruction and the military buildup of North Korea in circumvention of the sanctions imposed on it. In addition, the document says that for the same purpose, some IT professionals from the DPRK have developed virtual currency exchangers or have created analytical tools and applications for cryptocurrency traders. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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18attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed May 11, 2022 4:37 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The number of “whales” among bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds 1000 BTC, is rapidly declining. This figure has already reached its lows since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, on the contrary, is at its maximum over the past three months. According to Glassnode analysts, the average volume of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering around 1755 BTC.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a rapid fall in the price of the coin: BTC set a new local low at $29,730 on May 10. This is the lowest result in 2022 and is more than 54% below the all-time high. The pressure on the market is exerted by the coin holders themselves, who, due to panic, are ready to get rid of them even at a loss. Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10 points out of 100 possible, firmly entrenching itself in the Extreme Fear zone.

- The next few quarters will be volatile for the market due to the negative situation on Wall Street, which will jeopardize the support levels of $30,000 for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. This point of view was expressed by Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz.
As of March 31, Galaxy Digital had $2.7 billion in assets under management, down 5% from its December 31 estimate. Galaxy Digital's net cumulative loss was $111.7 million for January-March, compared with a profit of $858.2 million for the same period last year. This is largely due to losses on digital assets.
“Until we reach a new equilibrium, digital assets will continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq. My intuition tells me that there will still be a drawdown ahead, and this will occur in a very unstable, volatile and complex market,” Mike Novogratz explained. He warned that the negative scenario could be realized if the Nasdaq index fell below 11,000 (12,500 at the time of writing). 

- ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes that the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets indicates that the bearish trend will end soon. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin along with the traditional market is a temporary phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a new asset class that should not follow the Nasdaq, but that is what is happening. We are currently in a bearish trend where all assets are moving in the same way and we are seeing one market after another capitulate, but cryptocurrencies may be close to completing it.”
The head of ARK Invest believes that the cryptocurrency market will grow exponentially as traditional assets collapse. “The current recession in the stock and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is causing negative sentiment among investors. But look at our research… I can’t even tell you how confident we are that our products will change the world and are already on an exponential growth trajectory.” According to Wood, blockchain is in a technology sector that will grow more than 20 times in the next seven to eight years.

- The first cryptocurrency can be very successful, but it can also fail, so betting solely on it is risky. This opinion was expressed by a veteran of the bitcoin industry, a 2020 US presidential candidate, billionaire Brock Pierce in an interview with Fox Business. “Bitcoin could drop to zero. This is a binary result. Either there will be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he said.
Pierce believes that the current “cryptocurrency landscape” is very similar to the history of the tech companies' bubble. “The situation is very similar to 1999. The market is now in the same phase. So what happened then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and other interesting companies appeared, but a lot of businesses went bankrupt. But this does not mean that digital assets are unrealistic and will not play an important role in our collective future,” the billionaire said.
Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily through ethereum. He also placed a “nine zeros” bet on EOS, converting all of his shares into cryptocurrency.

- Self-proclaimed creator of the main cryptocurrency, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright has sued cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. This was reported by the law firm Ontier. He claims that these platforms misrepresent information by offering Bitcoin Core asset to customers under the guise of Bitcoin. According to Wright, the only digital asset “that remains true to the original bitcoin protocol” is Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.
“These and other exchanges have encouraged investors and consumers to trade and invest in Bitcoin Core, passing off this asset as bitcoin, despite it being created in 2017 as a software implementation that is different from the bitcoin protocol established by Dr. Wright when creating the electronic money system more than 13 years ago,” Ontier said in a statement.
Recall that Craig Wright himself claims that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious inventor of bitcoin. According to Wright, he helped create the first cryptocurrency with his friend, the late computer security expert Dave Kleiman.

- BTC is a good insurance against inflation, but not a full-fledged alternative to gold. This position was expressed by the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio. The billionaire pointed to the obstacles to making bitcoin a reserve asset: “Transactions can be traced. They can be controlled, canceled and made illegal.” At the same time, the businessman expressed optimism about the prospects for the digital industry in the next ten years.

- Bank Of America, on the contrary, questioned bitcoin as a means of escape from inflation. The first cryptocurrency correlates well in its price behavior with the dynamics of the stock market since July 2021. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on January 31. The new all-time high was also close in correlation with the Nasdaq 100. In contrast, the price relationship between bitcoin and gold has been gradually weakening since 2021 and has turned negative in the last two months. The bank’s specialists emphasized that this trend “became obvious”, so bitcoin is not a full-fledged replacement for gold.

- The crypto community celebrated another mini-anniversary on May 5: bitcoin has overcome exactly half of the way to its next halving. It happened on block 735,000. Halving is reducing mining rewards by half. The event takes place every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. At the same time, the rules of this procedure are written in the cryptocurrency code, which means that it is impossible to influence it without the consent of the majority of blockchain users. There are a little less than 105 thousand blocks left until the next such event.
Halving cycles are one of the main mechanisms of the bitcoin network, which involves halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the issue of bitcoins is also halved since miners' rewards are the only source of issuing new coins.
From the inception of bitcoin to the first halving, miners were rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the amount in bitcoins was reduced to 25 BTC, and in the next cycle to 12.5 BTC. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC for mining a block. 
The halving date can be predicted to within a couple of days, because the block production time fluctuates around 10 minutes. The previous halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next one will take place approximately in April 2024.
Halvings are considered very important events for another reason: as observations show, the explosive growth in the price of BTC is associated with them. So, before the first halving, BTC cost about $127, before the second, its price rose to $758, and before the third, to $10,943. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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19attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed May 04, 2022 5:13 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Kenneth Griffin, CEO of Citadel hedge fund, said his company will enter the digital asset market as a liquidity provider. According to Griffin, despite his skepticism about cryptocurrencies, he is forced to recognize their value. The billionaire compared these digital assets to his collection of American abstract paintings, noting that bitcoin is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. “Why is a painting worth $10 million? This is oil on canvas. So, the value is in the eye of the beholder,” he explained.

- Another billionaire, Warren Buffett, said he sees no value in bitcoins, CNBC reports. “What would I do with them? One way or another, I would have to sell them back to you. It won't do anything. Apartments will bring rent, and farms will produce food. Assets must produce something, bring real benefits,” the legendary investor explained.
Buffett is known for his negative attitude towards bitcoin. In February 2020, he called the first cryptocurrency "complete zero" with no value. The billionaire had earlier predicted the collapse of the crypto industry. When talking about bitcoin, he used terms like “rat poison squared” and “illusion without unique value.”

- One of the largest banks in Argentina, Banco Galicia, has opened access to cryptocurrencies for its clients. Users can purchase bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and USDC stablecoin on its platform. The organization explained this initiative by demand from the clients. Another Argentine bank, Brubank, also announced the launch of a cryptocurrency service.

- Bitcoin will test the $28,000 level, according to Peter Brandt, trader and head of Factor LLC. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented. At the same time, he stressed that the negative outlook does not make him a “bitcoin hater”.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq-100 index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.
However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

- Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before the bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally. 
As the BTC price dropped below the $40,000 level again, Cowen outlined a scenario for a possible fall. The trader noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year uptrend: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”
Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020. Cowen doesn't expect a repeat, but notes that its mark is currently around $21,400.

- Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”
According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Mike McGlone believes that a sharp correction in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the Fed to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."
“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.

- Brian Armstrong, speaking at the Milken Institute conference, stated that despite the rather unstable state of the crypto market since the beginning of 2022, he remains optimistic about the future of the industry. Armstrong added that the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.
Armstrong noted a significant increase in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States. According to him, “it is increasingly difficult to meet a real crypto-skeptic in the District of Columbia” and added that more than 50% of the population of Washington support cryptocurrency currently. 

- A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies.
According to the results of the study, a record number of new companies related to the blockchain, metaverse, NFT and digital assets was recorded in the United States only in the first quarter of this year. The document says that even the fall of bitcoin does not affect the overall mood in the market.
DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, but it has also happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively.

- The identity and whereabouts of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the first digital currency, is considered one of the greatest mysteries of the cryptocurrency community. Eleven years after Nakamoto last reported to colleagues, the circumstances and reasons for his disappearance continue to concern the community. Another version is that the CIA is behind this.
The editor of Bitcoin magazine Pete Rizzo has recently said that he had established a possible link between Nakamoto's disappearance and former lead crypto developer and current Bitcoin Foundation chief scientist Gavin Andresen's visit to a CIA meeting in June 2011. Andersen was concerned about the attention of the secret service, which has the ability to influence the development of the project and force the developers to do what they do not want. And now Rizzo claims that it was after this visit that Nakamoto was “never seen again.” 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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20attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:26 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- The financial company Fidelity Investments plans to provide customers with the opportunity to accumulate bitcoins on pension savings. The Wall Street Journal writes about it. The option will become available this summer to employees of the 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans. The addition of other cryptocurrencies is not ruled out in the future, but the share of digital assets in the portfolio should not exceed 20%. 

- The innovative strategy of using bitcoin as the main reserve asset will bring a “bright future” to the software provider MicroStrategy for the coming years. Michael Saylor, CEO of the company, said this in a letter to shareholders. “As of April 14, 2022, MicroStrategy remains the largest bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. Together with affiliates, it owns 129,218 BTC, purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of about $30,700,” the head of the firm said. According to him, the company's cryptocurrency strategy not only increased its value, but also led to greater recognition, helping to attract customers.

- The price of bitcoin will be $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.
Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain. 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.
Experts were asked to name the top five most effective cryptocurrencies. 87% of respondents included ethereum in it. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%, and Solana was third with 55%. Avalanche and Terra close the top 5 with 31% and 30%, respectively.

¬- Businesses will turn to cryptocurrencies as a neutral financial instrument due to rising geopolitical tensions. This opinion was expressed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He noted that the world is becoming more and more fragmented, and the US is using the dollar for sanctions pressure. "The dollar is one of the strongest instruments the US has," Zhao said.
According to him, the resulting geopolitical situation will lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Companies and even countries will start using them because of the risk of freezing accounts and other obstacles due to sanctions. As a result, this will reduce the dollar's global influence, as the rest of the world is likely to switch to cryptocurrency, albeit in the long run.

- Hollywood film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The book was published in 2020 and tells how the 19-year-old Buterin rallied a group of developers around the idea of creating a “world computer”. The book tells the story of the team's challenges, from increased regulatory scrutiny to the rise of Wall Street interest.
Ridley Scott who is known for his blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian will co-produce the movie. Camilla Russo and Francisco Gordillo, co-founder of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Avenue Investment, will help him with this.

- Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Tony Weiss has updated his forecast. According to him, bitcoin has broken support levels, so the risks of another strong fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen. “If bitcoin closes below $39,500, I will be extremely bearish for the next week and month. This is a very bad signal because the 4-day and the week charts will be completely bearish,” Weiss said.

- Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. bitcoin is currently inside the “big wedge” pattern, and it will be broken in the coming weeks, the asset itself is expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, Kaleo warned that a break of the $38,500 level could trigger another round of bitcoin's decline and a bounce above $41,000 would not change the situation much.

- Kevin O'Leary, entrepreneur and star of the reality show Shark Tank, believes that the global tightening of mining regulation will force companies to switch to green energy. “The old ways of mining, the era of ignoring politicians, governments, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is over,” O'Leary said. He stated in an interview with First Mover that nuclear and hydropower could take an important place in the crypto mining industry in the future.

- According to analyst Kevin Swenson, one should follow the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange in order to accurately predict trend reversals. This indicator has correctly pointed him to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. “Weekly volumes on Coinbase are my favourite, and this indicator has almost never let me down before.” says the specialist.
Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

- Another analyst, Jason Pizzino, explained under what conditions the bitcoin rate will reach $1 million. At the same time, the expert expressed confidence that this will happen sooner or later. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.
The specialist said that he fully agrees with the opinion of the head of ARK Invest Catherine Wood and CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the $1 million price mark. According to their forecasts, this will happen closer to 2030. Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

- According to Chainalysis, crypto investors worldwide earned $162.7 billion in 2021, up 400% from the previous year ($32.5 billion), as the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. In terms of profitability, ethereum is ahead of bitcoin with $76.3 billion, which brought investors $74.7 billion. At the same time, American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. For comparison, British investors earned "only" $8.2 billion.

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort has reconsidered his attitude to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013.
Now Belfort has said he is a firm believer in cryptocurrencies and blockchain, despite once making a YouTube video in which he called bitcoin a collective delusion. He changed his attitude towards cryptocurrency because he learned how it works. However, he is somewhat distressed by the problem of fraud in this industry. The financier admitted that he himself was robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction, which was very frustrating. And that's why he now actively advocates for tighter regulation of the crypto industry. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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21attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:38 pm

Stan NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 25 - 29, 2022

EUR/USD: Words Drive Trends

The main drivers of the past week were statements by important ECB and FRS officials. However, the beginning of the five-day period was relatively calm: the Easter weekend had its effect. Unlike the United States, Europe rested not only on Friday April 15, but also on Monday 18. The dollar was slightly supported on Monday by the comments from the representatives of the American regulator. According to Rafael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the base interest rate may be about 1.75% by the end of 2022, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans believes that it will reach 2.25-2.50%. And the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, announced a possible rise in the key rate by 0.75% immediately at the May meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).

The situation changed dramatically on Tuesday: the EUR/USD pair reversed and, having soared by 175 points, reached the height of 1.0935 on Thursday, April 21. It was not the dollar but the euro that was supported this time by hawkish comments from the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council. Thus, the head of the Central Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, said on Wednesday that an increase in the ECB rate is possible as early as July. His colleague, the head of the National Bank of Belgium, Pierre Wunsch, gave an interview to Bloomberg the next day, in which he noted that interest rates could become positive this year. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos confirmed this possibility, according to him the quantitative easing (QE) program may be completed in July, after which the path to raising rates will be open.

An additional impetus to the pair was given by the improvement in risk sentiment and the decline in the yield of American Treasuries. This sent the DXY dollar index down 1% after hitting a two-year high on Tuesday.

The situation changed for the third time on Thursday afternoon. The dollar went on a new offensive, assisted by a rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose to 2.974%, the highest level since December 2018. This happened thanks to Jerome Powell. Speaking at a meeting within the framework of the International Monetary Fund spring session, the head of the Fed confirmed the high probability of raising the interest rate by 0.5% at the next FOMC meeting on May 3-4. Such a move is under consideration, Powell said, as the U.S. job market is already "overheated." He did not rule out either that the rate could be increased by another 0.5% in June.

As for the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, speaking at the same IMF event, she refused to comment on the likelihood of an increase in the euro rate in July. “This will depend on the economic performance,” Ms. Lagarde said vaguely, after which the EUR/USD pair flew down.

The head of the ECB decided to slightly tighten her position on the last day of the working session, April 22. Ыhe did not deny at this point that the European Central Bank's purchase program could end at the beginning of Q3 and added that interest rates could rise as early as 2022. Her words sounded more hawkish compared to Thursday's, but that didn't help the euro. The pair found its bottom only at 1.0770, after which there was a slight correction to the north and a finish at 1.0800.

The euro was slightly supported by the results of the televised debate between French President Emmanuel Macron and opposition leader Marine Le Pen. As the poll data showed, 56% of respondents considered that the incumbent president was more convincing in the debate than his rival.

The second round of the presidential elections in France will be held on Sunday 24 April. Emmanuel Macron won 27.84% of the vote in the first round. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally Party, received 23.15%. Recall that she belongs to the Eurosceptics, and had called for almost the exit of the country from the Eurozone back in 2017. And if this lady comes to power, the EUR/USD pair, according to a number of analysts, may fall to the level of 1.0500, or even lower.

At the time of writing the review, the results of the election are still unknown, so the majority of analysts (50%) did not make any forecasts. 35% believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen. The opposite opinion is shared by only 15%. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 15% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.0770. The next EUR/USD bear target will be the April 14 low at 1.0757. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. Immediate resistance zone is 1.0830-1.0860, followed by 1.0900, the April 21  high of 1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the release of macro data, the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known on Tuesday, April 26.  Data on GDP and the state of consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone will be received on Thursday, April 28 and Friday, April 29. In addition, preliminary annual data on US GDP will be released on Thursday.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.3000 Is Lost. Will there be a counterattack?

We assumed in the previous review that we are in for the continuation of the battle of bulls and bears, and the front line will pass in the zone of 1.3000. Recall that 1.3000 is a key support/resistance level as it is not only the March 15 low, but also the 2021-2022 low.

And now we must say that the bulls have lost this battle. Having raised the GBP/USD pair to the height of 1.3090, they finally weakened, and it flew down. The local bottom was fixed at 1.2822 on Friday, and the final chord sounded a little higher, in the zone of 1.2830.

The reasons for this collapse of the pound lie on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. On the one hand, this is the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve and the growth of US Treasury yields. On the other hand, there are cautious comments from the Bank of England (BoE) and weak macro statistics from the UK.

Commenting on the state of the economy on Thursday, the head of the British regulator, Andrew Bailey, said that the inflationary shock in the United Kingdom has more in common with the Eurozone than with the US. "We shouldn't be complacent about inflation expectations," Bailey added, reiterating that they were dealing with "a very tight line between fighting inflation and the impact of a shock on real incomes."

The day after the speech of the head of the Bank of England, the UK Office for National Statistics dealt another blow to the pound. It reported that retail sales fell 1.4% in March. This indicator followed the February decline of 0.5% and turned out to be much worse than the forecast, according to which the fall should have been only 0.3%. 

Such a massive failure will most likely send investors into a shock and it will take time to restore their appetite for British currency purchases. The bears will try to build on their success and push the GBP/USD pair further down. 65% of analysts vote for this development, the remaining 35% expect the pair to correct to the north.

There is a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% both among trend indicators and oscillators. True, as for the latter, a third is in the oversold zone. The immediate goal of the bears is to overcome the support of 1.2800, update the October 2020 lows around 1.2760 and open their way to the September 2020 lows in the zone 1.2685-1.2700. More distant targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2085 and 1.2000. As for the bears, they will try to regain the initiative and fight again for 1.3000. However, they will need to overcome the resistances of 1.2860 and 1.2915 on this way. In case of a successful assault on 1.3000, resistance levels 1.3100, 1.3150 and the zone 1.3190-1.3215 will follow.

There are no significant data releases on the UK economy for the coming week. The only thing that can be noted is the release of data on the housing market of this country on Friday, April 29.

USD/JPY: Will the Bank of Japan Stand Its Ground?

The Japanese currency is hitting one anti-record after another, and the expectation that the past week would bring another one proved to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded another high at 129.39 on Wednesday, April 20. The last time it climbed this high was in May 2002, that is, 20 years ago.

The reasons for the fall of the yen are the same: divergence from the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Despite the fact that the majority of the Japanese are against the weak yen, the Bank of Japan still refuses to raise the key rate even to zero and does not want to cut monetary stimulus. The regulator believes that maintaining economic activity is much more important than fighting inflation.

The regular meeting of the Japanese Central Bank will take place next week, on Thursday, April 28. According to strategists of Singapore's UOB Group (United Overseas Bank), the regulator will once again leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. “We are confident,” write UOB economists, “that the BOJ will maintain its current loose monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive stimulus, possibly until fiscal year 2023 at least.”

The yen received some support from reports that Treasury Secretary Shunichi Suzuki discussed the idea of coordinated foreign exchange intervention with his counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. And it seems that "the American side sounded as if it would positively consider this idea." However, a source from the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampened hopes for a joint effort between the two countries, refusing to comment on the details of the conversation between Suzuki and Yellen.

Having renewed a multi-year high, the pair USD/JPY bounced back a little in the second half of the five-day period and ended it at the level of 128.53. 40% of experts vote for the bulls to storm new heights, 30% have taken the opposite position and 30% adhere to neutrality. Among indicators on D1, 100% of trend indicators look north, among oscillators, these are 90% of them (a third are in the overbought zone), the remaining 10% point south. The nearest support is located at 127.80-128.00, followed by 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. The resistances are located at levels 128.70, 129.10 and 129.39. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing we can assume is that they will set a high of January 01, 2002, 135.19, as a distant target. Taking into account the fact that the pair has risen by 1400 points over the past 7 weeks, it can reach this height in a month and a half if this pace is maintained.

Aside from the BOJ meeting and its monetary policy report, there is no other important information on the state of the Japanese economy expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC from $30,000 to $200,000

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Throughout 2022, bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The reason for such fluctuations, of course, is the US Federal Reserve. Investors cannot finally decide how to behave in the face of tightening monetary policy and rising dollar interest rates. As a result, their appetite for risk falls and flares up again. First of all, this applies to the stock market, along with which digital gold fluctuates as well.

We have repeatedly considered the correlation of the BTC/USD pair with the shares of technology companies. So, according to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached its high since July 2020. The same indicator between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historic low. It is physical gold that has recently been acting as a hedge against inflation, and its price came close to its historical maximum, reaching $2.070 per ounce on March 08 (the maximum price of $2.075 was recorded on August 2, 2020).

Bitcoin-ETP (Exchange Traded Product) shows an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 will be updated by the end of the month, when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin network has dropped to 15.6 million, about 30% less than the January 2021 high. Many short-term (less than 155 days) holders and speculators have already parted with their BTC holdings, according to Glassnode data.

The market is currently supported by long-term holders (LTH). As we already wrote, there has recently been a trend towards the accumulation of digital gold among them. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation, bringing their share to 14.26% of the market supply.

At the moment, about 15% of long-term holders are losing, but they not only continue to store coins, but also acquire new ones, counting on their growth in the future. For example, analytics software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up reserves in bitcoin. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. The company's division made its last purchase of $190.5 million in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, April 22, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at $1.850 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slightly improved its readings: it rose from 22 to 26 points and returned from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone.

The BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,700. The chart of the past four months, with its rising highs and lows, gives investors hope for a further rise in price. However, everything will depend on the May Fed meeting and investor risk sentiment. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index. The same figure of $30,000 is also mentioned by cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe, although he points to another reason: geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe due to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

Many other experts do not expect anything good from the BTC/USD pair in the near future either, although they build optimistic forecasts for the medium and long term.   So, according to Anthony Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, the price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. However, he is "worried" about the short-term outlook for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and said that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Like most analysts, Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one, since much depends on the geopolitical situation in the world now.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is confident that bitcoin is approaching "the point of choosing the direction of the trend." Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”

According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, the BTC/USD pair needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which is at around $47,440 at the time of writing. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

Most likely, the prospect of the return of the flagship cryptocurrency from $30,000 back to $40,000 in the current situation will not please investors very much, since the coin is currently trading in the region of $40,000. Therefore, to cheer them up, we will quote another specialist, Nicholas Merten from DataDash, who believes that BTC can set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”

According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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22attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:12 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- According to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite Index has reached its highest since July 2020. The similar indicator (30-day moving average) between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historical low, the one between the first cryptocurrency and the dollar - to a minimum since March 2020.
Experts have explained such dynamics by tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. An increase in interest rates leads to a strengthening dollar and a fall in high-tech stocks. Accordingly, the growth in the price relationship between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reflects that digital gold belongs to the category of risky assets.
Physical gold is currently acting as a hedge against inflation, while bitcoin ETPs are recording an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC will be updated by the end of the month. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index.

- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Agency (CISA), the FBI and the US Treasury have issued a joint warning regarding North Korean hackers. The authorities have said they are seeing attacks targeting the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors, including exchanges, DeFi protocols, venture capital funds, individual large crypto asset holders and NFTs.
According to a report by Chainalysis, North Korean hackers carried out at least seven cyberattacks on cryptocurrency platforms last year, stealing about $400 million worth of digital assets.

- Analyst software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up bitcoin reserves. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
MicroStrategy is the first public company to invest part of its own capital in digital gold. According to the entrepreneur, this decision increased the value of the company for customers and shareholders. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, the software provider holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. MacroStrategy made its last $190.5 million purchase in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

- The price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. This forecast was given by Antoni Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, in an interview with CNBC. At the same time, he noted that he was “concerned” about the short-term prospects for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.
Trenchev stated in January 2020 that the cryptocurrency would “easily reach” $50,000 by the end of the year. He recalled that everyone laughed at him then. However, the forecast came true, albeit with some delay: the price of digital gold reached the designated mark in February 2021.

- Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten believes that BTC could set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”
According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.

- A well-known analyst aka PlanB has identified two catalysts that could cause the next bitcoin rally. “It is definitely difficult to say what will help move to the qualitatively next level of implementation. But if we draw logical conclusions, then the second or the third El Salvador can really change the situation. If little El Salvador were not alone in introducing bitcoin in Latin America, and Mexico, Brazil or Argentina joined it, then the situation would be different, and it would be much more difficult for the IMF to put pressure on countries.”
The second catalyst is the everyday adoption of cryptocurrencies by ordinary people, especially if the process is supported by institutional market participants.

- “The NFT bubble is starting to burst,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of the "Black Swan", who predicted the approach of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Speaking to Fortune, Taleb cited the recent NFT (non-fungible token) sale of Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey as an example. His first online tweet was sold as an NFT last year for nearly $3 million. Today, it costs only a few thousand, more precisely, a little over $18,000.
Taleb's theory of "black swans" is associated with the appearance of ultra-rare events (like a black swan in nature), for which the market is not ready. In 2007, such an event was a sharp drop in house prices, and in 2022, the end of the era of low interest rates and “easy” money that had formed the basis of monetary policy during the pandemic.

- According to a new survey by Engine Insights, children aged 13 to 17 will spend their money differently than their parents. If they had money to invest, their first choice would be stocks (39%) followed by cryptocurrencies (29%) and real estate (29%).
At the same time, more than half of teenagers (51%) admitted that they do not understand the cryptocurrency industry as well as they would like to. The main source of information for 51% of respondents is online video. This is followed by relatives (32%) and websites of investment companies (32%). Parents are only in fourth place: they act as a source of information for 30% of adolescents. However, the school's position is even worse: only 21% of teenagers have learned about investments from their teachers. 

- Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and stated that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one. A lot depends on the geopolitical situation in the world currently, so it is very difficult to give accurate price forecasts.
Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin could drop to a record low below $30,000 amid geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe before starting to rise again.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin is approaching “the point of choosing the direction of the trend.” Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”
According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, bitcoin needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which at the time of writing is at about $47,500. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

- According to Coincub specialists, Germany has displaced Singapore from the position of the most crypto-friendly country. Authors of the report for the Q1 2022 have ranked 46 countries based on a range of factors, including new categories such as the number of initial coin offerings (ICOs) in each country, the prevalence of fraud and the availability of cryptocurrency education courses, etc. Germany's rise in the rankings comes after crypto exchange KuCoin released a report showing that 16% of the country's population aged 18 to 60 own or have traded crypto in the past six months. 41% of these investors intend to increase their investments in the crypto industry in the next six months. Interestingly, Germany was only in fourth place on the Coincub list last year.

- Strike payment service CEO Jack Mallers believes that payment services must constantly improve, and bitcoin does it best. In his opinion, the use of bitcoins as a payment network "is superior to the systems of traditional payment services and banks." In addition, the head of Strike compared the first cryptocurrency with the Internet, saying that they provide freedom: anyone can use both. Jack Mallers also advises cryptocurrency holders not to spend bitcoin as the asset is meant to be a long-term investment. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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23attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:56 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Bitcoin remains hyper volatile, but its turnover is inferior to other assets, which does not allow us to talk about the high “speculativeness” of the first cryptocurrency. This, according to Financial News, was stated by Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat. According to Lee's calculations, the turnover of bitcoins is 2:1, while that of the US dollar is 96:1, and that of a barrel of oil is 31:1. “Today, with […] penetration rates so low, one would expect bitcoin to be hyper volatile. But as 9 out of 10 households invest in the first cryptocurrency, its price fluctuations will weaken,” the specialist explained.

- David Rubenstein, co-founder of the investment fund Carlyle Group, admitted that he had been skeptical about cryptocurrencies, but his opinion changed over time. He emphasized that he did not buy cryptocurrencies, but “invested in companies that serve the industry.” "The genie is out of the bottle, and I don't think the industry is going to disappear anytime soon," the billionaire said.
He also pointed to the crisis in Ukraine as an additional reason for his current optimism. “If you are in Ukraine or Russia and the country is in a lot of trouble, having some crypto will probably make you feel better as you have something out of government control,” Rubenstein noted.

- The cryptocurrency industry will become the twelfth sector of the S&P 500 index in the next decade. This was stated by investor and star of the television show Shark Tank Kevin O'Leary.
Currently, the S&P 500 benchmark includes 11 sectors of the economy, and most experts advise investing no more than 20% of the portfolio in any of them. According to O'Leary, he adheres to this strategy when investing in cryptocurrencies. The millionaire said that he holds 32 positions in the digital asset sector, and none of them takes more than 5% of the prescribed 20%.
O'Leary stressed that investment diversification is one of the founding principles because "you have no idea what might work." In his opinion, even two successful bets out of ten can recoup unprofitable investments. 

- According to Bloomberg analysts, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency may soon fall to $26,000. The experts emphasized that if the technical analysis pattern called “bear flag” works, then such a scenario will be inevitable.
In their opinion, the BTC rate is now on its way to testing a key support level around $37,500. If it does not hold above this mark, the market is in for a disaster.
Bloomberg specialists also noted that they took into account the Coinglass report. According to this company, about $439 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated on April 12. At the same time, more than 88% of closed orders accounted for long positions. Bitcoin futures contracts for $160 million were also closed.

- Philosopher and professor of psychology at the University of Toronto Jordan Peterson spoke at at the Bitcoin-2022 conference in Miami and called the first cryptocurrency revolutionary but causing concern. As a sociologist, Peterson worries about getting money out of the control of the political system. According to him, new ideas can bring unforeseen consequences, and not only positive ones.
“I am not suggesting that you do anything as a result of this warning. I'm just saying that the unbridled enthusiasm is based on the assumption that the new system will only do good. It's unreasonable," Peterson said.

- Group-IB specialists identified 36 fraudulent YouTube streams dedicated to investing in cryptocurrencies in the period from February 16 to February 18. They brought the scammers about $1.7 million during these three days.
The attackers edited videos from old speeches by famous representatives of the crypto community and entrepreneurs. More often than others, the images of Vitalik Buterin, Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Changpeng Zhao and Cathy Wood were used. On average, the audience of one such stream ranged from 3,000 to 18,000 people. And the fake stream with Buterin gathered more than 165,000 viewers. During the broadcast, users were offered to transfer cryptocurrencies to the specified wallet and allegedly receive them back in double. To receive an “additional bonus”, the attackers offered the investor to provide the seed phrase of their crypto wallet. If the victim agreed, the scammers withdrew all the funds on it.
In total, the deceived viewers made 281 transactions. Ethereum turned out to be the most popular among scammers. Most of the domains involved in the broadcasts appeared through the Russian registrar

- Geoffrey Halley of Oanda stated that the flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within the established range, the lower limit of which is at $36,500. If BTC falls even more, it can lead to serious losses for traders and investors. However, if the price of bitcoin soars in the near future above the upper limit of the range of $47,500, this will be a prerequisite for reaching a new record high.

- Crypto trader known as Cheds told their 45,100 YouTube followers that the bears are now in control and any bounce is an opportunity to go short on BTC. Cheds also believes that the next rally is likely to be a bear trap rather than a trend reversal.

- One of the by-products of bitcoin mining is the excess heat from the operation of crypto farms, which Jonathan Yuan took advantage of. He has kids who love swimming in the pool. However, they almost did not do this because the water was too cold. Yuan himself is actively involved in mining, and drew attention to the fact that his equipment generates too much heat. He purchased a heat exchanger and used it to install a system for heating water. According to him, thanks to this invention, the temperature in the pool can be maintained at approximately 32° C.
At the same time, the Yuan crypto farm thus received a water-cooling system. However, when the inventor pushed his ASIC miners to the limit, the temperature in the pool rose above 43°C, which also did not please his children.
Jonathan Yuan notes that almost everything can be heated according to this principle: living premises, garages and so on. It is assumed that the heating temperature can reach a maximum threshold of 60°C.

- Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki fully agrees with the opinion of analysts who believe that the US dollar and other markets are on the verge of collapse due to rising food, oil and energy prices, as well as widespread inflation. The author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad assured that what is happening in the world of finance is a sign of a coming crisis, and this process will simply destroy half the US population. He noted that cryptocurrencies in this situation are a good tool to reduce risks, but not all people resort to using this asset class.
Kiyosaki emphasized that now 40% of Americans do not even have $1,000 in their savings. The inflation rate is rising, and this figure will soon exceed 50%. Then, according to the investor, a revolution will begin.

- Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, a company known for investing in bitcoin, and Cathie Wood, CEO of investment firm Arch Invest, contacted at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Both participants of the panel discussion still believe in bitcoin and are waiting for its growth, and the current situation in the market does not upset them at all. In their opinion, the Fed's monetary policy will continue to be inflationary, pushing prices up. In such a situation, according to Cathie Wood, bitcoin, as a means of hedging, has great potential for growth and its price could reach a record $1 million per coin. “It takes quite a bit of effort to do this,” the head of Arch Invest said. "We don't need much. All we need is for 2.5% of all assets to be converted to bitcoin.”
Both panellists believe that regulators are getting better at the flagship cryptocurrency. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke mostly negatively about bitcoin a year ago, referring to “money laundering, criminals, environmental damage” and so on. However, a lot has changed since then. “Someone whispered in her ear: if you want to lose, and if you want the US to lose, keep saying that. And she changed the record,” Wood shared an "inside info".

- As part of the Bitcoin-2022 conference, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez presented a statue of a “crypto bull”. According to him, the installation symbolizes the transformation of the city into the “world capital of the crypto industry”.
In contrast to its Wall Street's famous Charging Bull sibling, the Miami bull is cybernetically inspired and has the now-famous "laser eyes." The crypto community seems to like the new statue. Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano wrote that “the bulls are in control,” while Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao called the installation “pretty cool.”

- Morningstar analysts posted a report claiming that cryptocurrencies are no match for the stock and bond markets in terms of returns. At the same time, they note that bitcoin “is still too risky to be compared to gold.” The authors of the report argue that, despite the prospect of significant profits that the cryptocurrency market can offer its participants, one must be very careful with it.
“Every breathtaking rally has led to an equally brutal crash at the end. Cryptocurrencies lack a fundamental anchor, such as the face value of bonds or the discounted cash flows of stocks,” Morningstar notes. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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24attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:31 pm

Stan NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week

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- Miners mined the anniversary 19 millionth bitcoin On Friday, April 01. This event took place at block 730.002. At the time of writing, 90.48% of the total digital gold issue has been mined, which is limited to 21 million BTC.
According to the algorithm laid down by Satoshi Nakamoto, the reward is reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks. The next halving is expected in 2024. (For reference: the 18 millionth coin was mined on October 19, 2019).

- The trend towards the accumulation of bitcoins among various market participants continued last week. Such well-known companies as Luna Foundation Guard and MicroStrategy are among them. Analysts from the Glassnode company noticed that, in addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. Since the January 22 low, they have accumulated 0.58% of the market supply, bringing their share to 14.26%.
At the moment, miners have already mined 19 million coins out of the 21 million provided by the algorithm, and the accumulation has become many times higher than the emission. Thanks to this, bitcoin may soon become a scarce asset. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. Exchange balances fell to the levels of August 2018, breaking through the plateau observed since September 2021. The number of coins in bitcoin addresses that tend to accumulate rose by 217,000 BTC since December 04, 2021, to a record 2,854,000 BTC.
Based on the figures presented, it is possible to obtain a daily accumulation rate of 1800 BTC, which is twice the emission rate. And this is despite the fact that the market has been under the pressure of the bears for most of this period.

- The German Federal Criminal Police confiscated the German servers of the Hydra darknet marketplace. 543 BTC were also seized as part of the international operation with a total value of about 23 million euros. The investigation into the case has been ongoing since August 2021 with the participation of the US authorities. Hydra operators and administrators are suspected of providing opportunities for drug trafficking, fraudulent documents and money laundering.
According to the police, the users of the darknet marketplace included about 17 million customers and more than 19 thousand sellers. Hydra accounted for 75% of all dark web revenue in 2020, at least 1.23 billion euros. The platform entered the top 10 platforms in terms of cryptocurrency turnover, beating the Kraken, OKX and Poloniex exchanges.

- 21% of US residents have traded or invested in cryptocurrencies at least once, according to a survey conducted by NBC News. Only 19% of those surveyed expressed their positive attitude towards digital assets, 56% are neutral or cautious position, and 25% view them in a negative way. The agency explained this distrust by the lack of clear legislative regulation of this industry.

- US Senate Banking Committee member Elizabeth Warren compared the digital asset market to the 2008 economic crisis in an interview with NBC. “The whole digital world is like a bubble. What is the basis for its growth? People tell each other that everything will be fine, as it was with the real estate market before it fell,” Warren explained. The senator added that bitcoin will be regulated by the authorities sooner or later. However, she did not specify how the government plans to achieve such control.

- According to analysts at the investment company VanEck, the price of bitcoin could reach $4.8 million if the cryptocurrency becomes a global reserve asset. Such a forecast was obtained taking into account the M2 money supply, that is, the amount of cash in circulation and all kinds of non-cash funds. There is also a lower range - $1.3 million per 1 BTC, calculated based on the M0 money supply, which does not include non-cash funds.
VanEck analysts warn that their forecast is only intended to serve as a starting point for investors who want to estimate the possible value of bitcoin in one of the unlikely scenarios. At the same time, according to the authors of the forecast, it is not bitcoin at all, but the Chinese yuan that is the primary contender for the status of world reserve currency.

- A report from analytics firm IntoTheBlock says that long-term investors continue to hoard bitcoin. According to the results of Q1 22, the total amount of coins in the wallets of these market participants reached 12 million BTC, worth about $551.37 billion. “Long-term investors now own a record amount. This indicates an accumulation phase, helps ease selling pressure, and may help reinforce faith in bitcoin as a store of value,” IntoTheBlock said.
Bitcoin is now showing an almost complete cyclical correlation with the S&P500, which recently hit 0.9. At the same time, the cryptocurrency with its inherent volatility rises faster and falls just as faster than the stock market. The company's analysts note that "bitcoin has now recovered most of its quarterly losses, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended the first quarter with returns of -3.4% and -7.65%, respectively."

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has revised his bitcoin outlook. He believes that the arrival of new investors and innovations, developments in politics and the economy, and the acceptance of bitcoin by the authorities improve the forecasts for BTC for 2022. “Initially, I said that bitcoin would have an unstable year, that the price would fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $50,000. But given how the markets are trading, new investors and innovation, the development of the Web3 and the metaverse, I'm more optimistic. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if cryptocurrencies grow significantly by the end of 2022,” the billionaire said.
In his opinion, the adoption of bitcoin will continue, as everyone understands what an unstable world we live in. “Bitcoin began to write a new history at a time when Europe and the United States blocked Russia's financial flows. The military action in Ukraine creates a lot of inflationary pressure, generates a lot of risks and worries, but adds confidence to crypto investors and accelerates the adoption of digital assets,” the CEO of Galaxy Digital said.

- Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs employee and current Real Vision CEO, shares a similar opinion. He said in the MetaLearn podcast that the world is ready for a new wave of bitcoin adoption, and a further fall in the market will have a beneficial effect on its growth. “Sovereign states, especially wealth funds, will start looking for a long-term asset that will provide some security. Therefore, bitcoin will be studied by them and we will see its further adoption - not necessarily as a currency, but as an asset. I think this is a very interesting solution: the global use of bitcoin as a protective collateral reserve asset."
According to Raul Pal, the macroeconomic situation suggests that the chances of another bitcoin sell-off are slim. Therefore, most market participants are likely to stick to a long-term strategy and not actively trade cryptocurrencies.

- Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Cheds believes that a breakout of the ascending triangle pattern will take bitcoin to $58,000. “We have $46,000... and an ascending triangle,” Chads writes. - It is most logical to consider it as a bullish sign, since such a triangle is usually a bullish continuation pattern. The measured move will be the height of the triangle, which will bring us from $56,000 to $58,000.”
At the same time, the expert advises traders to keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average as this technical indicator is currently acting as resistance. Chads believes that if the bulls manage to keep BTC above $45,000, the cryptocurrency will be ready to storm the SMA-200 resistance for a further 26% gain. Otherwise, the bulls face the risk of a sell-off. 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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25attention Re: CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX Sun Apr 03, 2022 10:46 am

Stan NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 04 - 08, 2022

EUR/USD: Too Much Uncertainty

The movement of major currencies was determined throughout March by reports from the Russian-Ukrainian front, the sanctions-energy war with Russia, and the pace of monetary tightening. The US dollar has strengthened significantly in recent months thanks to a sharp increase in the yield of US government bonds and signals about an increase in the Fed's interest rate. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0805 on March 07, its lowest level since mid-May 2020. However, then the growth of the dollar stopped, and the pair moved to a sideways movement along the Pivot Point 1.1000. The hawkish statements of the Fed management pushed the pair down, the hopes for resolving the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine sent it above this line.

The same factors determined the dynamics of EUR/USD last week as well. The pair rose by 240 points from Monday, March 28 to Thursday, March 31: from 1.0944 to 1.1184. First, the strengthening of the euro was caused by reports in the US media that the ECB may start actively raising the refinancing rate this year. Allegedly, a number of large market participants require the European regulator to raise the rate four times by the end of 2022. As a result, investors began to include in quotes the probability of such a move by the ECB, and the yield on government bonds in Europe went up.

The next day, March 29, hopes dawned for the success of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which took place in Istanbul (Turkey). The success of the EU's energy war with Russia also helped the European currency. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the sale of energy carriers to Europe exclusively for rubles a week ago. The goal was clear: to support the ruble exchange rate under the sanctions. However, the main European consumers refused to do so categorically, and the head of Russia was forced to note his decision.

Everything would have been good for the euro, but it turned out in the second half of the week that the rumors about the increase in the EUR rate in 2022 are nothing more than a speculation, and that there was no serious shift in the negotiations in Istanbul. Macroeconomic statistics also helped the dollar a little. As a result, the growth of the EUR/USD pair stopped, it turned south and ended the five-day period not far from Pivot Point 1.1000, at the level of 1.1045.

The outcome of the hostilities in Ukraine is still unclear. The situation with the supply and payment of hydrocarbon raw materials to Europe remains confusing as well. Oil has fallen in price by about 14% since March 24. This is how the market reacted to the plans of President Joe Biden to sell additional volumes of oil from national reserves. The White House intends to sell up to 1 million barrels of oil per day over the next six months. And this could be the biggest sell-off in the nearly 50-year history of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It should be noted here that, despite the smaller volumes, the sale of oil brings Russia more profit than gas currently. And such a decision by the United States should reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers, causing additional damage to the Russian economy.

Another uncertainty is introduced by the Fed. Recall that forecasts for US GDP have been recently revised. And they have shown that the regulator expects economic growth to slow down in 2022 from 4% to 2.8% due to the sanctions war with Russia. In addition, the forecasts for the interest rate have also changed. It was earlier said that it will reach 0.75-1.00% by the end of the year. This figure has now risen to 1.75-2.00%. Given that there are only six meetings left this year, it turns out that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to raise the rate by 0.25% at each of them.

But this is not all either. The forecast on the rate for the end of 2023 has also been raised from 1.50-1.75% to 2.75-3.00%. Moreover, it seems that we will face several more acts of monetary restriction in 2024. That is, this is not just a revision of forecasts, but a sharp tightening of the US monetary policy, which could deal a serious blow to the labor market and lead to a large-scale recession. The market may receive important signals about the future movement of the dollar on Wednesday, April 6. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be published on this day.

At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the dollar. 40% vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair and 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 30% of them are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 35% are gray neutral. The trend indicators have an advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 85% against 15% of the green ones.

The nearest target for the bulls is a breakdown of the resistance zone in the area of 1.1100-1.1135, followed by the zones of 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1280-1.1350 and highs on January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. As for the bears, they will certainly try to break through the support of 1.0950-1.1000 and drop 100 points lower. If successful, the next targets will be the March 07 low at 1.0805 and the 2020 low at 1.0635 and the 2016 low at 1.0325.

Apart from the publication of the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, there will be relatively few events in the coming week. We can highlight the publication of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday, April 05, as well as data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Thursday, April 07. 

GBP/USD: Trend east, along 1.3100

Statistics from the United Kingdom last week turned out to be rather contradictory. According to the data published on Thursday, March 31, the British economy for the Q4 21 grew by 1.3%, which was higher than both the previous 1.0% and the forecast of 1.0%.  The economy grew by 7.5% over the past year, which was the highest since 1941. But it is necessary to take into account  here that  GDP fell by 9.4% in 2020. So, there has not yet been a final recovery to the pre-pandemic level. In addition, data on the country's current account for the Q4 21 amounted to 7.3 billion pounds against the forecast of 17.6 billion and the previous value of 28.9 billion.

The activity of the manufacturing sector in the UK was also less than expected, which was confirmed by a IHS Markit report on Friday, April 01. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 55.2 in March against the forecast of 55.5.

As with the euro and for the same reasons, GBP/USD investors and traders are at a loss. As a result, the pair was moving east along the 1.3100 level in a narrow corridor throughout the week. The low of the week was fixed at 1.3050, the high was 1.3182, the last chord sounded at 1.3112.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, 55% of experts side with the bulls, 35% support the bears and 10% remain neutral. The median forecast still points to the 1.3100 horizon. True, when moving to the forecast for the whole of April, its value rises to the zone of 1.3235. Most trend indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, 55% are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 25% are gray neutral. Trend indicators, as in the case of EUR/USD, have an overwhelming advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 90%.

The nearest support is located in the area of 1.3080-1.3100, then 1.3050 and the low of March 15 (and at the same time of 2021-2022) - 1.3000, followed by the support of 2020. Resistance levels are 1.3160, 1.3190-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

Among the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Monday, April 4, as well as the publication of the Composite PMI and the Business Index UK services activity on Tuesday, April 05, and the Construction PMI on Wednesday, April 06.

USD/JPY: 125.09: No More Anti-Records?

The yen breaks an anti-record after an anti-record. The USD/JPY hit 122.43 on Friday, March 25, and it was already 263 points higher at 125.09 on Monday, March 28. The reason for the continued weakening of the Japanese currency is the same: the Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its super-soft monetary policy. Its head, Haruhiko Kuroda, once again stated on March 22 that it was too early to discuss the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as raising the interest rate. Recall that it has been at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%. In addition, the regulator was actively buying Japanese government bonds (JGB) throughout the past week in a desperate attempt to prevent their yield from breaking through the target level of 0.25%.

Last week's high of 125.09 is already close to the 2015 high of 125.86. And if the pair manages to break higher, then, according to strategists at Credit Suisse, this will open the way for it to 135.20 in the long term, and then even higher, to the zone of 147.00-153.00. However, in their opinion, the correction that has begun now can be continued during the Q2, first to 119.79, then to 119.09, after which the pair will move to trading in the range of 119.00-125.00. Credit Suisse also believes that if the pair breaks through support at 119.09, then the pullback may become deeper, to the zone of 116.35-116.50.

The same high for the Q2 is called by Rabobank specialists, who predict the pair's rise above 125.00 only in the second half of this year. They believe that the tightening of the Fed's policy is already built into the current dollar quotes, and this will hold back the growth of the pair in the coming months. However, the difference in interest rates and Japan's position as an importer of raw materials will play their role in Q3 and Q4, and the yen will continue to gradually weaken. A quick jump in USD/JPY above 125.00 will seriously increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program.

As for the past week, after the pair rose to 125.09, a correction began. The low was recorded on Thursday, March 31 at 121.27, after which the pair went up again and finished at 122.54.

With 50% of experts giving a bullish outlook for the coming week, it looks very moderate and sees the pair rising to the 124.00-124.50 zone as a target. 25% of analysts, on the contrary, vote for a further decline in the pair, and 25% have taken a neutral position. It should be noted that when switching to a monthly forecast, the vast majority (85%) of experts predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency and expect to see the pair in the 115.00-117.00 zone.

Among the indicators on D1, there is almost complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 90% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators are looking up, although 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The nearest resistance levels are 123.20, 124.20 and the March 28 high at 125.09. After that, as already mentioned, the bulls may try to reach the 2015 high at 125.86. The nearest support is 122.00, then 121.30. It is followed by zones 120.60-121.40, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35.

There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Whales and Short-Term Speculators Do

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Investors' risk appetite, which caused the growth of stock indices, continued to pull the crypto market with it at the beginning of last week. Bitcoin gained 28% and ethereum gained nearly 40% in just the second half of March.

The main cryptocurrency reached the powerful resistance level of $45,000 on the evening of Friday, March 25, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year. It failed to gain a foothold above it the previous four times, the BTC/USD pair rolled back down. This time it seemed that the bulls finally achieved the long-awaited victory: the quotes recorded a local high at a height of $48.156 on March 28. However, after that, the pair hit the 200-day SMA and stopped rising. The most logical explanation for this stop is the strengthening of the dollar at the end of the past week.

At the time of writing, April 01, the flagship cryptocurrency first returned to the $45,000 zone, which turned from resistance to support, and then rebounded to $46,500. The total market capitalization rose to $2.140 trillion ($1.995 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also grown slightly: from 47 to 50 points.

DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence bitcoin volatility, and “whales” influence the growth. “There has been a lot of panic around the macro environment over the past couple of months,” Merten writes. The Fed is raising interest rates... The war between Ukraine and Russia, the potential next wave of COVID-19 - all these problems caused pessimism among small investors. At the same time, the “whales”, on the contrary, did not sell cryptocurrency... In fact, we saw how long-term investors continued to either buy more or hold bitcoin.

One such investor was the well-known software developer MicroStrategy. The company has recently received a $205 million loan secured by its own crypto assets. The loan was issued by the American bank Silvergate. The purpose of the loan is to buy bitcoins. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, MicroStrategy already owns 125,051 BTC worth nearly $6 billion. And “this loan,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, “is an opportunity to strengthen our position as a leader among public companies investing in bitcoin.”

Note that MicroStrategy is not the only company that provides crypto assets as collateral. For this type of loans, Silvergate Bank has a special SEN Leverage program, the total amount of obligations for which has already exceeded $570 million.

Despite numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, bitcoin is highly likely to enter the second half of a bear market, according to analysts at Glassnode. This is evidenced by the active accumulation of coins in the range of $35,000-42,000 and the absence of significant spending of bitcoins purchased in the Q1 2021. The share of BTC “aged” over a year has grown by 9.4% over the past eight months to close to a record 62.9%. The holders of these coins did not get rid of the asset in the face of two corrections of more than 50% in the last 12 months. The growth rate of this indicator is comparable to the market recovery in 2018-2019. And this may reflect increased investor confidence in bitcoin.

At the same time, analysts at Glassnode warn that the process of bottoming and investor capitulation in a bear market is often lengthy and painful. Therefore, they urge not to rush into ascertaining the end of the bear market.

A number of experts believe that a new strong correction to the south is only a matter of time. There are still no drivers for the rapid growth of quotations, and everything depends on the severity of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics of the global economic recovery. The $30,000 level may become the bearish target for the BTC/USD pair.

Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor Trading, calls for caution in optimistic forecasts. This legendary trader tweeted to his 629,400 followers that BTC’s recent move reminded him of April 2019 when the top cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,500, starting the first phase of its bull cycle. However, the expert emphasizes that even a technical breakthrough does not guarantee that the coin will repeat the 2019 rally.

“Charts DO NOT predict the future. The charts DO NOT even offer probabilities. Charts offer opportunities and are useful for risk management in a trading program. Chart patterns can either work, fail, or transform. If laser eyes reappear and BTC stops, be careful,” Brandt warns.

Crypto analyst alias Dave the Wave posted a comment saying that bitcoin is forming a larger ascending triangle on the weekly timeframe and could rise to its all-time high of $69,000.

We noted in the forecast for the last week of March that the position of ethereum is currently slightly better than that of bitcoin. The above growth figures are clear proof of this. Many investors are now buying ETH with BTC. In addition, the community is waiting for the long-awaited update to the ethereum mainnet. The Merge update is approaching rollout following successful testing on the testnet. Before its launch, more than $5.0 billion in ETH tokens had already been withdrawn from circulation as a result of burning. Since the burning reduces the overall supply of ethereum, this positively affects its price, contributing to the altcoin’s rally. Glassnode analysts have found that the volume of ethereum on exchanges has been declining in recent days. The inflow of this altcoin to the trading floors is 20% lower than its outflow, which creates the conditions for the formation of an ETH deficit.

The growth in the value of the coin is observed against the backdrop of the activation of the ten largest ETH addresses. Whales have accumulated up to 23.7% of the total ethereum supply, according to a new report from analytics firm Santiment. And they are not going to dump their assets, preferring to send ETH to offline storage. A similar trend was observed in the first half of 2017, after which we saw the famous altcoin run during the hype five years ago.

And at the end of the review, another piece of advice in our crypto life hacks section. Recall that we talk in it about the most interesting and unexpected ways to make money in this market.

Have you ever wondered what the toilet is for? We will tell you: to mine cryptocurrency! This is exactly what Gabriel Kozak and Dušan Matuska from Slovakia decided. As a result, they created the AmityAge mining farm, which runs on electricity obtained from human and animal waste. Dušan Matushka, said that "their devices run on methane, which is produced during the biodegradation process." Since there is no shortage of such waste in the foreseeable future, BTC mining on their farm is not dependent on rising global energy prices. Moreover, it takes place in an environmentally friendly way using renewable energy sources, which completely removes all claims against this industry.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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