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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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201Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:23 pm

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Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950
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This happened for the first time since mid-October, when gold was rapidly rising in price on fears related to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, the psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce demonstrated its importance.

Notice the volatility spikes around it — the bulls were active in the attacks, noticeable on the 4-hour chart, but all the progress made on the upward impulses was almost immediately canceled out by the bears.

The graph shows:
→ formation of a reversal pattern SHS (head-and-shoulders). With some subjectivity, we can assume that the “neck” level is around USD 1,970. But it has already been broken after a weak rebound;
→ the price dropped below EMA (100).

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VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

202Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:53 pm

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Dollar Corrects ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech
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Last week's weak jobs report contributed to a sharp rise in major currencies against the US dollar. Market participants assume that weak labour market data will force the Fed to change the vector of monetary policy. We will find out how officials perceived the recent data in the coming trading sessions. There are a number of speeches scheduled by important US officials this week that could either reinforce current market sentiment or contribute to a reversal.

GBP/USD
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The British currency strengthened over 200 points last week and traded above 1.2400 on Monday. However, buyers have not yet managed to develop a full-fledged upward trend, and yesterday the price returned below 1.2300.

In the near future, the price may test support at 1.2200-1.2180. The behaviour of the pair at these marks will give more clues on its further pricing. A sharp rebound could contribute to renewed growth in the direction of 1.2500-1.2400. A breakdown downward may provoke another downward wave to 1.2100-1.2000.

Today at 11:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Tomorrow at 10:30 GMT+3, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Huw Pill, will speak.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

203Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:48 pm

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Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July
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As the chart shows, the price of WTI oil has dropped below USD 77.50 – the last time prices were this high was in mid-July.

The decline in oil prices was contributed to by:
→ first, easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East and interruptions in the supply of oil produced in the region;
→ secondly, the data from Beijing. While China's crude oil imports rose in volume and value in October, the country's total exports fell 6.4% year on year, more than expected, CNBC reports. This points to a slowdown in demand in a world where central banks in many countries are keeping interest rates high to combat inflation.

Thus, supply forces prevail despite the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia announced continued restrictions on oil production amid the conflict in the Middle East.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

204Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:08 am

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EUR/USD Reclaims 1.0700 While USD/CHF Dips
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.9010 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

  • The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0635 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CHF declined below the 0.9030 and 0.9010 support levels.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9010 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0525 level. The Euro cleared the 1.0635 resistance to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0700. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0750 resistance. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high.

Immediate support on the downside is near a major bullish trend line at 1.0685. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high at 1.0635.

A downside break below the 1.0635 support could send the pair toward the 1.0560 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone to 1.0525.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0700. The first major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. An upside break above the 1.0750 level might send the pair toward the 1.0800 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0840 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0920 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

205Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Nov 07, 2023 10:52 am

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GBP/USD Turns Green While USD/CAD Eyes Fresh Increase
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GBP/USD started a decent increase above the 1.2225 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering and might aim for a move toward the 1.3795 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound climbed above the 1.2225 and 1.2315 resistance levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD declined toward the 1.3635 zone before the bulls took a stand.
  • It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.




GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair found support near the 1.2100 zone. The British Pound formed a base and started a recovery wave above 1.2225 against the US Dollar.

The pair was able to clear the 1.2315 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it spiked toward 1.2430. A high is formed near 1.2430 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high.

The RSI moved below the 40 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major support at 1.2315. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315.

A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high at 1.2225. The next major support is 1.2100. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2000 support.

On the upside, the pair might face resistance near 1.2350. The next resistance is near 1.2385. An upside break above the 1.2385 zone could send the pair toward 1.2430. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2500.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

206Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:28 pm

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US Dollar Falls after Weak Employment Data
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The US dollar fell after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the data showed. Figures for September were revised down to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's exchange rate against six major currencies, fell 0.8% to 105.29. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the indicator in the services sector from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 53. 6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.


EUR/USD
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The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing the bullish momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the 1.0735 mark for an upward breakout, updating local highs from September 14. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596.

Investors are focusing on the October US labour market report, published on Friday. In turn, export volumes from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and imports fell by 1.7% after -0 .3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

207Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:23 pm

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US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?
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It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?

When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.

Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.

Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

208Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:15 pm

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S&P 500 Analysis: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market
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According to Friday's data, in the US:
→ the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (expected = 3.8%). The last time the level was this high was in February 2022.
→ the number of workers employed in the non-agricultural sector increased over the month by only 150k (+178k expected). The last time the figure was below 150k was in February 2021.

Published negative data clearly indicate a cooling of the labour market. Why then did the E-mini S&P-500 futures price end the week up about 5.5%, marking the best week of 2023?

The point is that market participants are increasingly convinced that the Fed will no longer tighten monetary policy. That is, interest rates have peaked, the next step should be to ease them, which will allow companies to grow.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

209Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:01 am

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Show Signs of Life
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AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb above 0.6450. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.5915 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6425 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  • NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.5870 support.
  • There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.5885 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6320 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6350 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6400 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6455 zone. A high is formed near 0.6456 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6425. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near the same zone.

The next support could be the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6400. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6350.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6320. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6455.

The first major resistance might be 0.6480. An upside break above the 0.6480 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6550 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6620 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

210Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Nov 03, 2023 2:53 am

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The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation
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Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.

On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.

The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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211Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 02, 2023 12:30 pm

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Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year
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The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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212Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 02, 2023 12:28 pm

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S&P 500 Analysis: Powell Adds Bullish Momentum
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As expected, the Fed left the rate unchanged. Market participants' attention was focused on Powell's press conference, as he said:
→ Risks have now become almost balanced;
→ Inflation expectations are at a good level.

The media publishes the opinions of experts who generally agree that although Jerome Powell has not ruled out the possibility of another rate increase, he does not seem to be very supportive of this idea. So the Fed is not as aggressive as it could be.

As a result, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 20%, and the probability that the rate hike cycle has ended is at 70%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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213Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:56 pm

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Bank of England's November Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on the Pound
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The British pound faces a crucial test as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to announce its November interest rate decision. The outcome could significantly influence the pound's value, but several factors come into play.

If all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote to maintain the current interest rate, and there are no substantial alterations to inflation and growth forecasts, the pound may remain relatively unaffected. This decision aligns with market expectations and is unlikely to cause significant ripples in financial markets.

However, for forward-looking observers, the key focus will be on the guidance provided in the policy statement and the forecasts outlined in the Monetary Policy Report.

Some market sentiment suggests that the BoE might aim to maintain its 'high-for-longer' message, ensuring it remains the primary takeaway from November's policy statement. Such a message could lend support to the pound.

In recent times, there have been no upward adjustments to the base rate, accompanied by indications that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This message may offer some upside for GBP, especially given the already modest expectations for further tightening.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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214Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:53 pm

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USD/CAD Analysis: New High of the Year
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As the chart shows, yesterday, the USD/CAD rate exceeded 1.389 for the first time in 2023. This happened against the backdrop of news regarding the economies of the USA and Canada:

→ Statistics Canada estimates that GDP contracted in the third quarter. Technically, it can be stated that the Canadian economy has entered a technical recession, as this is the second consecutive negative change in GDP for the quarter.
→ The US Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in the third quarter after rising 1.0% in the second quarter, the Labour Department reported Tuesday. This is a sign of a strong labour market, but at the same time, it indicates the preconditions for rising inflation, since the costs to the employer may fall on the consumer.

How the Fed assesses inflation will become known today at 21:30 GMT+3 from Powell’s speech. Also, volatility in the USD/CAD market may increase the speech of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 23:15 GMT+3.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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215Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 01, 2023 8:36 am

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EUR/USD Resumes Drop, USD/JPY Extends Surge
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EUR/USD is again moving lower below the 1.0615 support. USD/JPY surged and broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0675 support zone.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 149.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0700 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0615 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0595 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570. A low is formed near 1.0557 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0585.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0595. The first key resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0615.

A clear move above the 1.0615 level could send the pair toward the 1.0675 resistance. An upside break above 1.0675 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0750.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0560. The next key support is at 1.0525. If there is a downside break below 1.0525, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0485, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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216Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Oct 31, 2023 10:21 pm

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FTSE 100 Sees Modest Gains Despite BP's Earnings Dip and GBP Slump
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In the early hours of trading, the FTSE 100 exhibited slight gains, although BP PLC's underwhelming performance during this earnings season limited further progress.

At 8:15 am, London's primary index rose by 7.44 points, marking a 0.1% increase and reaching 7,334.83, while the FTSE 250 experienced a more substantial increase of 64.64 points, equating to a 0.4% uptick and culminating at 17,082.23.

BP encountered a 4.1% decline after failing to meet City expectations for third-quarter profits. Weak results in gas marketing overshadowed the company's robust performance in oil trading. Adjusted net income for the third quarter was reported at $3.29 billion, down from $8.15 billion in the previous year but surpassing the $2.59 billion recorded in the prior period.

Richard Hunter, the head of markets at Interactive Investor, noted that there might be some room for disappointment, particularly in light of the market's anticipation of a $4.01 billion figure.

Vodafone Group PLC saw a 0.5% increase after confirming the sale of its Spanish business for a sum of up to €5 billion. Spectris PLC experienced a more notable rise of 2.8% following its forecast of top-end operating profits.

Rolls-Royce emerged as another strong performer, enjoying a 3.2% increase in its stock value. This surge was propelled by Barclays' decision to upgrade its rating from neutral to overweight while setting a price target of 270p.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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217Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Oct 31, 2023 1:06 pm

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USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues
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Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.

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218Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Oct 31, 2023 1:04 pm

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AMZN Pulls NASDAQ Up, Expecting Help from AAPL
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Amazon's quarterly report provided a ray of light in a gloomy environment for the tech-heavy US stock market, as the NASDAQ index fell last week to levels last seen in May.

→ AMZN EPS: actual = USD 0.94, expected = USD 0.58
→ Gross revenue: actual = $143.5 billion, expected = $141 billion
→ For the Q4, AMZN expects revenue of USD 160-167 billion
→ Revenue from Amazon Web Services grew by 12.3% year on year
→ Advertising revenue increased by 26%

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219Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:03 pm

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Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data
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On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.

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220Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:01 pm

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Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Influence Oil Prices. Is $250 Per Barrel Likely?
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Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, oil markets have experienced volatility. Israel's deployment of ground forces into the Gaza Strip has not led to the expected surge in oil prices, as investors remain focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil price saw a decline of 1.06%, falling to $89.52 per barrel. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dropped by 1.16%, reaching $84.55 per barrel.

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221Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Oct 30, 2023 11:13 am

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GBP/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/GBP Turns Green
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GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2285 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8720 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2200 support.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8700 zone.
  • There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2285 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair 1.2155. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2110 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2069 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key contracting triangle at 1.2155. The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low at 1.2200.

A close above the 1.2200 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2285. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2350.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2110. If there is a downside break below the 1.2110 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2075 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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222Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Oct 30, 2023 11:11 am

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Price of Oil in Tense Anticipation
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Monday's opening came without any surprises. Despite the news that the Israeli army is moving to a new phase of the operation in Gaza, the price of Brent oil did not change much, trading started around the middle of the Friday candle.

The chart shows that the price of Brent oil has fluctuated between USD 86.60 and USD 89.10 since October 24th. At the same time, the MACD indicator shrank near the zero line, which is typical for flat markets. However, it can hardly be said that bidders are calm.

On the one hand, they are closely monitoring news from the Middle East, where escalation could provoke supply disruptions and sharply increase the price of oil. On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US sees an increased risk of the conflict spreading to other parts of the Middle East region.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates this week. The event is scheduled for Wednesday evening, and it can greatly change the current balance of supply and demand.

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223Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Oct 30, 2023 8:10 am

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Watch FXOpen's  23 - 27 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: THE YEN WEAKENS, NASDAQ ENTERS CORRECTION, GOLD STABILISES

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • USD/JPY: New High of the Year [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
  • The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
  • Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
  • Google report crashes stock price [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]


Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



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224Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:15 pm

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The Dollar Rises Amid Accelerating Economic Growth in the United States
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The American currency received support from strong data from the United States. Thus, in the third quarter, gross domestic product increased by 4.9% after increasing by 2.1% earlier, with a forecast of 4.2%, which was the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting easing risks of a recession. At the same time, the positive dynamics of the indicator partially offsets the results of the hawkish policy of the US Federal Reserve: the regulator’s meeting will take place next week, which is also the reason for the current correction.

Optimism from faster growth rates of the American economy was partially offset by statistics on the labour market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of October 20 increased from 200.0k to 210.0k, while experts expected 208.0k, and the number repeated requests for the week of October 13 — from 1.727 million to 1.790 million, with expectations at 1.740 million.

EUR/USD
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According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair is consolidating near 1.0565, preparing to end the week with a slight decline. The day before, quotes managed to interrupt the active development of the bearish trend, while the news background remained ambiguous and investors assessed the results of the ECB meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, noting that further monetary policy will be determined by statistical data, which does not exclude a possible increase in the value in the future. At the same time, the ECB said that inflation in the region continues to decline, but will most likely remain above target levels for a long time.

The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0581, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0606. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0517, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0500.

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225Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:12 pm

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Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs
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The XAU/USD rate fluctuates around $1,987 – the July high was formed around this price. And having overcome it, the market stabilized, as evidenced by the ADX indicator, which dropped to its minimum for the month.

Gold is up about 9% in three weeks on war fears. Moreover, if we take the year 2023, then gold has become a more profitable investment than the stock market, since according to Dow Jones Market Data, as of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 SPX index has gained 7.8% since January 1, at that time as front-month gold futures gained 9.2% over the same period.

On Friday, gold traders are focused on the release of US Core PCE Price Index values at 15:30 GMT+3. News about inflation could cause significant turbulence in the gold market.

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226Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:06 pm

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USD/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year
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Yesterday, for the first time in 2023, the yen weakened to 150.7 per US dollar.

Thus, since the beginning of autumn, the yen has weakened by 3.5%, continuing the trend of 2023, which is due to the difference in the monetary policies of the two countries.

The Fed is pursuing a high rate policy. Yesterday's news testified to the stability of the economy, as US GDP is growing: fact = 4.9% in annual terms; expected = 4.5%; quarter ago = 2.4%. This provides a cushion for the Fed to continue keeping rates high to combat inflation.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy, keeping the rate below zero. Today's news showed that Japan's CPI was: actual = 2.7%, expected = 2.5%, a month ago = 2.5%. That is, inflation in Tokyo is raising its head, which increases pressure on the Bank of Japan.

The Bank of Japan meeting will be held next week; on Tuesday, market participants may receive important news about the authorities' response to the weak yen and rising inflation. The chart shows that traders are afraid that the USD/JPY rate could drop sharply because progress in the development of the current trend is slowing down.

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227Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:03 pm

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Gold Price Rallies Toward $2K While Crude Oil Price Takes Hit
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Gold price surged above the $1,960 resistance during the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price struggled and declined below the $85.75 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,974 zone against the US Dollar.
  • A key bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,982 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil prices failed to clear the $89.50 region and started a fresh decline.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.


Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,940 zone. The price remained in bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,960 during the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,974 and $1,982 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,995 zone before the bears appeared.

There was a minor downside correction below $1,980 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

The price remained strong above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,982. Initial support on the downside is near $1,982 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major support is near the $1,974 zone. If there is a downside break below the $1,974 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,960 support.

Immediate resistance is near the $1,995 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,000 level. An upside break above the $2,000 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

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228Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Oct 26, 2023 4:42 pm

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The US Dollar Resumes Growth
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Towards the end of the week, the American currency managed to resume medium-term growth. Reversal combinations among commodity currencies were broken, and the pound, yen and euro went to test new lows. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar is most likely caused by the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising oil prices and good fundamental data from overseas published this week. Thus, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for October, published on Tuesday, showed growth: 50.9 versus 49.8. New home sales also increased in September: 759K versus 680K.

USD/JPY

The data published above contributed to the exit of the USD/JPY pair from the phase of long-term consolidation at 149.80-148.70. On the weekly USD/JPY chart, greenback buyers easily broke through the upper limit and are currently firmly entrenched above 150.00. If the corresponding foundation is released, the pair may rise to last year’s highs at 151.90. A corrective rollback is possible to 149.50-149.20.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on basic orders for durable goods in the United States for September. Also at this time, the GDP figure for the third quarter will be released, and weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published.

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229Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Oct 26, 2023 4:39 pm

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The NASDAQ Index Officially Enters Correction
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The decline to current levels from the peak of the top of the year, set on July 19, exceeded 10%, which is generally considered to be the trigger for the start of the correction. According to statistics, this is the 70th official correction since the index was created in February 1971.

Despite the positive report from Microsoft, the bearish dynamics of the NASDAQ index were determined by the decline in shares of Tesla and Google, as well as the rise in the yield of long-term treasury bonds, which increased the cost of borrowing.

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230Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Oct 26, 2023 4:32 pm

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Despite Strong Report, META Shares Fall 3%
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Like Google, META demonstrated that the price can fall if the quarterly report is better than expected:
→ Earnings per share: actual = USD 4.39, expectation = USD 3.63.
→ Revenue: actual = USD 34.15 billion, expectations = USD 33.56 billion
→ Number of daily active users: fact = 2.09 billion, expectation = 2.07 billion according to StreetAccount.

META's share price initially rose in post-market trading but then reversed course and fell more than 3% following cautionary comments from CFO Susan Lee about the impact of military conflict in the Middle East on the advertising market.

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231Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Oct 26, 2023 4:30 pm

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Google Report Crashes Stock Price
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Shares of GOOG and GOOGL fell about 9.5% on Wednesday, wiping Google's parent company's market value by USD 166.64 billion, the fifth-largest decline in capitalization history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

It is noteworthy that the drop occurred as a result of the publication of a report that turned out to be better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 1.55, forecast = USD 1.45;
→ gross income: actual = USD 76.69 billion; forecast = USD 75.95.

Why did Google's stock price collapse? Among the reasons may be the fact that revenue from cloud-based services has shown a decline. It amounted to USD 8.41 billion, which is about 2% below expectations of USD 8.6 billion, although in the same quarter last year it was equal to USD 6.87 billion, that is, an increase of 22% over the year.

However, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said the stock's negative reaction was "overblown." And according to analysts at Mizuho Americas, the decline in cloud revenue will be "temporary," based on what they've seen in rival Amazon's cloud business.

If the price decline continues, how deep can it be?

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232Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Oct 25, 2023 12:29 pm

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Federal Reserve Signals Prolonged Restrictive Monetary Policy, Impacting Markets
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent announcement underscores the central bank's unwavering commitment to an extended period of restrictive monetary policy, sparking fluctuations in the stock market, surges in the US 10-year Treasury yield, and an appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

This resolute stance is designed to persist until there is a high degree of confidence that inflation has sustainably dropped to the targeted 2% over an extended period.

Despite recent US inflation rates aligning with the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Chairman Powell refrained from suggesting that the mission to rein in inflation has been successfully accomplished.

He notably indicated that significant inflation metrics are anticipated to recede in the near future. Powell's stricter warning surpasses investor expectations and runs counter to the backdrop of recent increases in long-term US interest rates and tighter financial conditions, which have evolved since the last Federal Reserve rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is deeply rooted in its keen focus on future economic forecasts and the associated risks.

This position demonstrates the Federal Reserve's heightened willingness to accept the possibility of a recession rather than a resurgence of inflation. Moreover, the Federal Reserve relies on economic models, including the Phillips curve, which posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.

The Japanese yen has experienced considerable volatility over the past week, oscillating between gains and losses against the US dollar on multiple occasions.

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233Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Oct 25, 2023 12:26 pm

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AUD/USD Analysis: The Rate Reacts Sharply to News About Inflation
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Today in Australia, data from the CPI indicator was published, which came as an unpleasant surprise, indicating that inflation in Australia does not want to decline:
Core Price Index was: actual = 5.6%, expected = 5.3%, a month earlier = 5.2%, two months earlier = 4.9%.

Perhaps the reason that inflation is raising its head again is high prices on the world oil market.

One way or another, the AUD/USD chart shows a surge in volatility and a sharp downward reversal from the level of 0.63900. The multidirectionality of impulses may indicate that the news was indeed unexpected.

According to Reuters, two of Australia's four largest banks — the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ — now expect a quarter-point rate hike in November. “While the current level of 4.35% could mark the peak of the cash rate, there is a risk that policy could tighten further. Any easing is still a long way off,” bank analysts say.

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234Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 9 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Oct 25, 2023 12:08 pm

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EUR/USD Struggles While USD/CHF Turns Red
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0625 support. USD/CHF is also declining and struggling below the 0.9000 region.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

  • The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0685 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0585 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CHF is gaining pace below the 0.8975 support zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8940 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a recovery wave above the 1.0640 zone, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro climbed above 1.0660 but struggled near 1.0685 against the US Dollar.

The pair started a fresh decline below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0625. The bears were able to push the pair toward the 1.0585 pivot level. The pair traded as low as 1.0583 and is currently showing a lot of bearish signs.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0687 swing high to the 1.0583 low.

The first major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0625. An upside break above the 1.0625 level might send the pair toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0687 swing high to the 1.0583 low at 1.0660.

Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0685 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near a key bullish trend line at 1.0585. The next major support is near the 1.0530 level. A downside break below the 1.0530 support could send the pair toward the 1.0500 level.

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