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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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401Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 15, 2023 9:57 am

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EUR/USD Rallies Post US CPI While USD/JPY Takes Hit
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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0775 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 151.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro is rising and trading well above the 1.0835 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0775 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 151.00 and 150.70 levels.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 151.65 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0660 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0750 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.0775 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.0885 resistance. A high is formed near 1.0887 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0665 swing low to the 1.0886 high at 1.0835. The next major support is forming near a key bullish trend line at 1.0775.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0665 swing low to the 1.0886 high. The next key support is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0750. If there is a downside break below 1.0750, the pair could drop toward the 1.0705 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0660, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0885. The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. An upside break above 1.0920 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0980.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

402Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:29 pm

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Major Currency Pairs in Correction Phase
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After a sharp strengthening of the American currency at the end of the week, the main currency pairs entered the correction phase. The dollar's rise was largely due to the hawkish statements of Jerome Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve said that if necessary, the American regulator will continue to raise the base rate, taking into account incoming macroeconomic indicators. Jerome Powell's statements contributed to the USD/JPY pair renewing its recent high at 151.70. Commodity currencies fell to recent lows, with the pound and euro giving up much of their recent gains.

GBP/USD
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The British currency, after a spectacular rise to 1.2400, returned to 1.2200. However, buyers of the pair managed to gain a foothold above the alligator lines on the daily timeframe, and as long as the range 1.2200-1.2180 remains in support status, the likelihood of a resumption of the upward movement is quite high.

Today is an important fundamental day for the British currency. At 9:00 GMT+3 we are waiting for the publication of data on average wages for September, taking into account bonuses. Indicators on the unemployment rate for the same period will also be released.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

403Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:26 pm

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London Markets Anticipate Opening Decline with Focus on US Inflation and UK Jobs Data
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As investors remain attuned to the imminent US inflation report and scrutinise the latest UK jobs data, London stocks are poised to open on a downward trajectory.

The FTSE 100 opened approximately 10 points lower at 7,416 this morning in the London session.

Earlier figures from the Office for National Statistics unveiled that wage growth in the three months to September experienced a mild deceleration. However, earnings growth surpassed inflation, while the unemployment rate maintained its stability.

Including bonuses, average wage growth dipped to 7.9%, down from an upwardly-revised 8.2% the previous month. This contrasts with the 6.7% inflation rate. Economists had anticipated a decline to 7.4% in wage growth, including bonuses.

Excluding bonuses, wage growth eased to 7.7% in the same period, slipping from 7.8%. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.

The Office for National Statistics in the UK noted that labour market figures depict a relatively unaltered scenario, with proportions of employed, unemployed, and those not actively seeking employment showing marginal changes from the previous quarter.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

404Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Nov 14, 2023 10:41 am

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Morgan Stanley Analysts Raise Forecasts for S&P 500
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According to them:
→ the price of the S&P 500 index will reach 4,500 at the end of the year (previous forecast = 4,200);
→ the dollar will continue to remain strong.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, published yesterday, the price of the S&P 500 index will fluctuate around current levels, forming a consolidation zone.

That is, a decline in the S&P 500 is not a priority scenario. An important test that will provide more important information about current market sentiment will occur today: US inflation data will be published at 16:30 GMT+3. According to forecasts, it will slow down from 3.7% to 3.3%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

405Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Nov 14, 2023 10:39 am

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BTC/USD Analysis: JP Morgan Analysts Warn of a Possible Correction
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Last week, the BTC/USD rate rose to the level of USD 38k per coin on the excitement associated with the expected launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, as the week begins, bitcoin price performance shows signs that the hype appears to be waning:

→ the speed with which the price dropped from the upper boundary of the channel and the high of the year to the middle of the channel (about -USD 1,700 in a few hours) indicates the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ the price tried to resume its upward trend, but failed. This can be seen from the downward reversals from the level of 37,500
→ the fact that the slopes of trend lines (shown in black) become less sharp is also a sign of weakening bullish sentiment.

It turns out that after a pronounced surge last week, the price has already dropped below the median line of the channel, and the MACD remains in the red zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

406Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:33 pm

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Dollar Falls against Euro and Rises against Yen
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Last week, markets analyzed the results of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Representatives of the American regulator doubt that borrowing costs have reached their peak. Thus, the head of the US Federal Reserve noted that he fully admits one or more interest rate increases if the current economic situation requires it. Officials supported the idea of a possible tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation lags behind expectations. At the same time, the department is aware of the additional risks that a further increase in borrowing costs brings with it, but considers the American economy to be quite stable. In addition, on Friday, investors were disappointed by data on the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan: in November, the indicator fell sharply from 63.8 points to 60.4 points, while the forecast was 63.7 points. Today in the United States the October report on federal budget execution is expected to be published: forecasts suggest a significant reduction in the deficit from -$171.0 billion to -$30.0 billion.

EUR/USD
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The EUR/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near the 1.0685 mark. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0690, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0711. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0664, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0648.

On Friday, the single currency fell moderately, updating local lows from November 3 against the backdrop of statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve regarding the prospects for monetary policy. Last Friday's European statistics also failed to significantly support buying sentiment in the market. Thus, industrial production in Italy showed zero dynamics in September after growing by 0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.2%, and in annual terms the figure rose from -4.2% to -2.0 %. The focus of investors' attention today will be a summary of economic forecasts from the European Commission.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

407Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:31 pm

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Bank of England Initiates Stress Test In Aftermath of Liz Truss Budget Disaster
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In a groundbreaking move, the Bank of England has called upon more than 50 financial institutions in the City to conduct a comprehensive stress test, simulating the repercussions of a sudden and drastic movement in bond prices. This initiative marks the first financial system-wide stress test of its kind, reflecting the central bank's proactive stance in assessing and fortifying the resilience of the financial sector.

The call for stress testing follows the turmoil experienced in bond markets and the sterling aftermath triggered by Liz Truss's mini-budget in September 2022. During this period, pension funds faced significant pressure, and some teetered on the brink of collapse. The pronounced shift in bond prices and corresponding interest rates underscored the inherent risks associated with specific forms of liability-driven investing (LDI), particularly concerning retirement savings.

This pivotal stress test, involving major players such as big banks, asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and major insurers, aims to evaluate how these entities would fare in the face of an unforeseen swing in bond prices. The participants are required to model and analyse the potential impacts on their operations, with results due to be shared with the central bank by January.

The stress test encompasses abrupt and sustained fluctuations in the value of both corporate bonds and sovereign debt, encompassing renowned government bonds like UK gilts. The Bank of England's scenario involves a 10-day-long "shock to rates and risky asset prices," combining multiple elements to simulate a comprehensive market disruption.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

408Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:27 pm

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EUR/GBP Analysis: Price Reaches 6-month High
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In the fall of 2023, bullish sentiment developed in the EUR/GBP market: since September 1, the rate has risen by more than 2%, price dynamics have formed an ascending channel (shown in blue). Moreover, on Friday, the price reached its highest in approximately 6 months.

Growth drivers, among other things, are news related to the policies of the Bank of England and the ECB aimed at combating high inflation, and what signals the economy gives in such conditions.

The latest news about UK GDP turned out to be better than expected (actual = +0.2% for the 3rd quarter, expectations = +0.1%), but the pound sterling did not show a positive reaction, for two reasons from a fundamental point of view:

→ Firstly, the details show that a significant contribution to GDP growth came from imports, a category that tends to be quite volatile between quarters. Other key areas — notably consumption and business investment — posted negative results in the quarter.

→ Secondly, GDP may decline due to the fact that the high rate policy pursued by the Bank of England should be more fully felt in the coming 2024.

If the pound didn't strengthen on Friday on the GDP news, could the bullish trend continue?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

409Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:23 am

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GBP/USD Dips Again While EUR/GBP Gains Strength
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GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2430 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8755 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2310 support.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2245 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8720 zone.
  • There is a major rising channel forming with support near 0.8735 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2370, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2430 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2310 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.2250. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2200 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2187 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average and a bearish trend line at 1.2245. The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low at 1.2310.

A close above the 1.2310 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2370. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2430.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2210. If there is a downside break below the 1.2210 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2185 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2120. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2040 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

410Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:00 pm

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Watch FXOpen's  06 - 10 November Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: OIL FALLS, S&P500’s BEST WEEK, GOLD DROPS, EUR/JPY: NEW HIGH

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
  • S&P 500: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]&P500
  • Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950 [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
  • EUR/JPY: New High of the Year [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]


Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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411Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:43 am

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ETH/USD Growing Rapidly on News from BlackRock
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As it became known, BlackRock has filed an application with the SEC for an ETF based on spot Ethereum. Information about the iShares Ethereum Trust appeared on the Nasdaq website.

If such an expression is acceptable, the price of the second cryptocurrency has gone in pursuit of bitcoin, which is rewriting the highs of the year amid expectations associated with the approval of applications for ETFs for spot bitcoin — approval from the SEC already seems inevitable.

In just 10 hours after the news was published, the price of ETH/USD increased by more than 10%. The excitement is fueled by speculation that other Wall Street giants may file bids after BlackRock.

The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of Ethereum came close to the year’s high at 2140, set in April;
→ RSI indicates that the market is extremely overbought, which means it is vulnerable to a pullback.

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VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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412Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:41 am

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Gold Price Corrects Gains and Crude Oil Price Tumbles
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Gold price is correcting gains below the $1,980 support. Crude oil prices declined heavily below the $80.00 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price failed to settle above the $2,000 region and moved lower against the US Dollar.
  • It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil prices dived toward the $75 zone before the bulls appeared.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $76.90 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.


Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $2,000 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,980 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,965 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,945 zone. A low is formed near $1,944.71 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958.

There was also a spike above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low. It is now facing resistance near the $1,965 level.

The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low at $1,980, above which the price could test the $2,005 resistance.

The next major resistance is $2,020. An upside break above the $2,020 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,032. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,958 level. The first major support is near the $1,945 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,945 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,920 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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413Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:29 pm

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BTC/USD Analysis: New High of the Year
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The bitcoin rate exceeded USD 36,500 per coin for the first time in 2023.

This is fueled by pending approval of Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. According to the latest information, SEC representatives are in contact with the Grayscale fund, one of those who submitted applications. This increased confidence that applications would be approved. Moreover:
→ applications can be approved all together and then several ETFs will start working simultaneously, making it possible that potentially billions of dollars will be directed to the purchase of bitcoins;
→ this can happen before January 10, 2024.

The creation of ETFs will open up new opportunities for a wide range of investors to easily invest in the main cryptocurrency, while reducing the risks associated with opening an account on a crypto exchange, hacked wallets, or sanctions from regulators.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the price of bitcoin broke through the USD 36,000 level on an expanding candle, indicating the strength of demand.

How far can the bitcoin rate go up?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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414Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:27 pm

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EUR/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year
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For the first time since 2008, the rate exceeded the level of 161 yen per euro.

The strength of the euro and the weakness of the yen are contributed to by different policies of central banks.

The European Central Bank's chief economist said on Wednesday that he had not seen enough progress in curbing inflation. This may mean a continuation of the ECB's tight monetary policy and the “expensive euro”. The head of Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes should not be ruled out, while the Bundesbank president said the "last mile" to the inflation target could be the hardest.

At the same time, in Japan, interest rates are effectively negative, making the yen fundamentally weak against the euro. The uptrend channel on the EUR/JPY pair (shown in blue) dates back to 2022. The stability of the trend is also evidenced by the upward-directed MA (100) — the rate is stably above it.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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415Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:23 pm

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Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950
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This happened for the first time since mid-October, when gold was rapidly rising in price on fears related to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, the psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce demonstrated its importance.

Notice the volatility spikes around it — the bulls were active in the attacks, noticeable on the 4-hour chart, but all the progress made on the upward impulses was almost immediately canceled out by the bears.

The graph shows:
→ formation of a reversal pattern SHS (head-and-shoulders). With some subjectivity, we can assume that the “neck” level is around USD 1,970. But it has already been broken after a weak rebound;
→ the price dropped below EMA (100).

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416Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:53 pm

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Dollar Corrects ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech
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Last week's weak jobs report contributed to a sharp rise in major currencies against the US dollar. Market participants assume that weak labour market data will force the Fed to change the vector of monetary policy. We will find out how officials perceived the recent data in the coming trading sessions. There are a number of speeches scheduled by important US officials this week that could either reinforce current market sentiment or contribute to a reversal.

GBP/USD
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The British currency strengthened over 200 points last week and traded above 1.2400 on Monday. However, buyers have not yet managed to develop a full-fledged upward trend, and yesterday the price returned below 1.2300.

In the near future, the price may test support at 1.2200-1.2180. The behaviour of the pair at these marks will give more clues on its further pricing. A sharp rebound could contribute to renewed growth in the direction of 1.2500-1.2400. A breakdown downward may provoke another downward wave to 1.2100-1.2000.

Today at 11:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Tomorrow at 10:30 GMT+3, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Huw Pill, will speak.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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417Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:48 pm

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Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July
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As the chart shows, the price of WTI oil has dropped below USD 77.50 – the last time prices were this high was in mid-July.

The decline in oil prices was contributed to by:
→ first, easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East and interruptions in the supply of oil produced in the region;
→ secondly, the data from Beijing. While China's crude oil imports rose in volume and value in October, the country's total exports fell 6.4% year on year, more than expected, CNBC reports. This points to a slowdown in demand in a world where central banks in many countries are keeping interest rates high to combat inflation.

Thus, supply forces prevail despite the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia announced continued restrictions on oil production amid the conflict in the Middle East.

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418Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:08 am

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EUR/USD Reclaims 1.0700 While USD/CHF Dips
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.9010 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

  • The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0635 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CHF declined below the 0.9030 and 0.9010 support levels.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9010 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0525 level. The Euro cleared the 1.0635 resistance to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0700. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0750 resistance. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high.

Immediate support on the downside is near a major bullish trend line at 1.0685. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high at 1.0635.

A downside break below the 1.0635 support could send the pair toward the 1.0560 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone to 1.0525.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0700. The first major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. An upside break above the 1.0750 level might send the pair toward the 1.0800 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0840 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0920 level.

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GBP/USD Turns Green While USD/CAD Eyes Fresh Increase
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GBP/USD started a decent increase above the 1.2225 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering and might aim for a move toward the 1.3795 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound climbed above the 1.2225 and 1.2315 resistance levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD declined toward the 1.3635 zone before the bulls took a stand.
  • It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.




GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair found support near the 1.2100 zone. The British Pound formed a base and started a recovery wave above 1.2225 against the US Dollar.

The pair was able to clear the 1.2315 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it spiked toward 1.2430. A high is formed near 1.2430 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high.

The RSI moved below the 40 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major support at 1.2315. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315.

A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high at 1.2225. The next major support is 1.2100. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2000 support.

On the upside, the pair might face resistance near 1.2350. The next resistance is near 1.2385. An upside break above the 1.2385 zone could send the pair toward 1.2430. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2500.

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420Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:28 pm

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US Dollar Falls after Weak Employment Data
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The US dollar fell after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the data showed. Figures for September were revised down to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's exchange rate against six major currencies, fell 0.8% to 105.29. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the indicator in the services sector from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 53. 6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.


EUR/USD
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The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing the bullish momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the 1.0735 mark for an upward breakout, updating local highs from September 14. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596.

Investors are focusing on the October US labour market report, published on Friday. In turn, export volumes from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and imports fell by 1.7% after -0 .3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros.

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US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?
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It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?

When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.

Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.

Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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S&P 500 Analysis: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market
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According to Friday's data, in the US:
→ the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (expected = 3.8%). The last time the level was this high was in February 2022.
→ the number of workers employed in the non-agricultural sector increased over the month by only 150k (+178k expected). The last time the figure was below 150k was in February 2021.

Published negative data clearly indicate a cooling of the labour market. Why then did the E-mini S&P-500 futures price end the week up about 5.5%, marking the best week of 2023?

The point is that market participants are increasingly convinced that the Fed will no longer tighten monetary policy. That is, interest rates have peaked, the next step should be to ease them, which will allow companies to grow.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Show Signs of Life
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AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb above 0.6450. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.5915 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6425 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  • NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.5870 support.
  • There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.5885 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6320 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6350 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6400 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6455 zone. A high is formed near 0.6456 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6425. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near the same zone.

The next support could be the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6400. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6350.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6320. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6455.

The first major resistance might be 0.6480. An upside break above the 0.6480 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6550 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6620 resistance zone.

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The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation
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Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.

On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.

The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.

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Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year
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The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.

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S&P 500 Analysis: Powell Adds Bullish Momentum
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As expected, the Fed left the rate unchanged. Market participants' attention was focused on Powell's press conference, as he said:
→ Risks have now become almost balanced;
→ Inflation expectations are at a good level.

The media publishes the opinions of experts who generally agree that although Jerome Powell has not ruled out the possibility of another rate increase, he does not seem to be very supportive of this idea. So the Fed is not as aggressive as it could be.

As a result, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped to 20%, and the probability that the rate hike cycle has ended is at 70%.

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Bank of England's November Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on the Pound
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The British pound faces a crucial test as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to announce its November interest rate decision. The outcome could significantly influence the pound's value, but several factors come into play.

If all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote to maintain the current interest rate, and there are no substantial alterations to inflation and growth forecasts, the pound may remain relatively unaffected. This decision aligns with market expectations and is unlikely to cause significant ripples in financial markets.

However, for forward-looking observers, the key focus will be on the guidance provided in the policy statement and the forecasts outlined in the Monetary Policy Report.

Some market sentiment suggests that the BoE might aim to maintain its 'high-for-longer' message, ensuring it remains the primary takeaway from November's policy statement. Such a message could lend support to the pound.

In recent times, there have been no upward adjustments to the base rate, accompanied by indications that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This message may offer some upside for GBP, especially given the already modest expectations for further tightening.

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USD/CAD Analysis: New High of the Year
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As the chart shows, yesterday, the USD/CAD rate exceeded 1.389 for the first time in 2023. This happened against the backdrop of news regarding the economies of the USA and Canada:

→ Statistics Canada estimates that GDP contracted in the third quarter. Technically, it can be stated that the Canadian economy has entered a technical recession, as this is the second consecutive negative change in GDP for the quarter.
→ The US Employment Cost Index rose 1.1% in the third quarter after rising 1.0% in the second quarter, the Labour Department reported Tuesday. This is a sign of a strong labour market, but at the same time, it indicates the preconditions for rising inflation, since the costs to the employer may fall on the consumer.

How the Fed assesses inflation will become known today at 21:30 GMT+3 from Powell’s speech. Also, volatility in the USD/CAD market may increase the speech of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at 23:15 GMT+3.

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EUR/USD Resumes Drop, USD/JPY Extends Surge
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EUR/USD is again moving lower below the 1.0615 support. USD/JPY surged and broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0675 support zone.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 149.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0700 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0615 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0595 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570. A low is formed near 1.0557 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0585.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0595. The first key resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0615.

A clear move above the 1.0615 level could send the pair toward the 1.0675 resistance. An upside break above 1.0675 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0750.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0560. The next key support is at 1.0525. If there is a downside break below 1.0525, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0485, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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FTSE 100 Sees Modest Gains Despite BP's Earnings Dip and GBP Slump
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In the early hours of trading, the FTSE 100 exhibited slight gains, although BP PLC's underwhelming performance during this earnings season limited further progress.

At 8:15 am, London's primary index rose by 7.44 points, marking a 0.1% increase and reaching 7,334.83, while the FTSE 250 experienced a more substantial increase of 64.64 points, equating to a 0.4% uptick and culminating at 17,082.23.

BP encountered a 4.1% decline after failing to meet City expectations for third-quarter profits. Weak results in gas marketing overshadowed the company's robust performance in oil trading. Adjusted net income for the third quarter was reported at $3.29 billion, down from $8.15 billion in the previous year but surpassing the $2.59 billion recorded in the prior period.

Richard Hunter, the head of markets at Interactive Investor, noted that there might be some room for disappointment, particularly in light of the market's anticipation of a $4.01 billion figure.

Vodafone Group PLC saw a 0.5% increase after confirming the sale of its Spanish business for a sum of up to €5 billion. Spectris PLC experienced a more notable rise of 2.8% following its forecast of top-end operating profits.

Rolls-Royce emerged as another strong performer, enjoying a 3.2% increase in its stock value. This surge was propelled by Barclays' decision to upgrade its rating from neutral to overweight while setting a price target of 270p.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues
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Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.

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AMZN Pulls NASDAQ Up, Expecting Help from AAPL
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Amazon's quarterly report provided a ray of light in a gloomy environment for the tech-heavy US stock market, as the NASDAQ index fell last week to levels last seen in May.

→ AMZN EPS: actual = USD 0.94, expected = USD 0.58
→ Gross revenue: actual = $143.5 billion, expected = $141 billion
→ For the Q4, AMZN expects revenue of USD 160-167 billion
→ Revenue from Amazon Web Services grew by 12.3% year on year
→ Advertising revenue increased by 26%

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Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data
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On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.

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Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Influence Oil Prices. Is $250 Per Barrel Likely?
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Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, oil markets have experienced volatility. Israel's deployment of ground forces into the Gaza Strip has not led to the expected surge in oil prices, as investors remain focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil price saw a decline of 1.06%, falling to $89.52 per barrel. Simultaneously, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dropped by 1.16%, reaching $84.55 per barrel.

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