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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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401Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:48 pm

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USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements
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Since 2016, the interest rate in Japan has been in the negative zone and has remained unchanged — for more than 7 years it has been -0.10%. This makes Japan fundamentally different from other countries. But over the weekend the Yomiuri newspaper published an interview with Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda. He said the central bank could end the era of negative interest rates once it becomes clear that the 2% inflation target has been achieved.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

402Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Sep 11, 2023 10:40 am

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GBP/USD Could Recover While USD/CAD Trims Gains
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GBP/USD retested the 1.2450 support and is now correcting losses. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3655 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2580 resistance.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD declined below the 1.3655 and 1.3615 support levels.
  • A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3615 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2550 support to enter a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2450 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2480. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The RSI moved above the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now showing a few positive signs. Immediate resistance is forming near a key bearish trend line at 1.2550 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2642 swing high to the 1.2447 low.

The next resistance is near 1.2580. An upside break above the 1.2580 zone could send the pair toward 1.2655. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2700.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.2480 area. The next major support is 1.2450. If there is a break below 1.2450, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2400 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2345 support.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

403Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:12 pm

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Watch FXOpen's 4 - 8 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: APPLE IN TROUBLE, DOLLAR STRENGTHENED, USD/CAD, NIKKEI 225

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • The dollar strengthened to a maximum in six months
  • Nikkei 225 reaches psychological level at 33,000
  • USD/CAD analysis: how the decision of the Bank of Canada affected the national currency
  • Apple in trouble: shares fall more than 3.5%


Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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404Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 08, 2023 10:09 pm

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Dollar Strengthens Amid Good Data
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Data on business activity in the US for August was published. In general, indicators are recovering, but the pace is slowing down, and the beginning of a recession in the near future is seen as quite possible. Nevertheless, investors still hope that a recession in the US economy will be avoided. Weekly data from the American labour market were also published yesterday. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 216.0k, which turned out to be lower than both the forecast of 234.0k and the previous value of 229.0k. The total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.719 million to 1.679 million, while experts estimated 1.715 million, confirming the stable state of the sector, which may contribute to a new increase in the US Fed interest rate.

EUR/USD

The euro fell on Thursday as Europe's economic outlook continued to deteriorate. Data showed German industrial production fell slightly more than expected in July. The Ifo Institute said Germany's economy would contract by 0.4% this year, confirming its previous forecasts published in June. Meanwhile, European statistics agency Eurostat revised down its estimate that eurozone GDP rose 0.1% in the second quarter from the previous three months. On an annualised basis, GDP increased by 0.5%, Eurostat said, revising its previous growth estimate of 0.6%. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744; a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0788. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697, and a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672.

A new downward channel has formed at the lows of the week. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to move towards the upper border.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

405Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:48 pm

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Start Fresh Increase
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AUD/USD declined 0.6400 before the bulls appeared. NZD/USD is now attempting a fresh increase from the 0.5860 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6440 level against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.6400 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  • NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
  • Recently, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5880 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6520 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6440 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6400 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 0.6360 zone. A low was formed near 0.6357 and the pair is now consolidating losses. It is slowly moving higher above the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near a key contracting triangle at 0.6400. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6522 swing high to the 0.6357 low.

A clear upside break above 0.6400 could send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6522 swing high to the 0.6357 low at 0.6440. The next major resistance is near 0.6485, above which the price could rise toward 0.6520. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.

A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6600.

On the downside, initial support is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6385. The next support could be the 0.6360. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

406Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:46 pm

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Bitcoin Sets September High
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The price of the main cryptocurrency rose above the level of 26k US dollars. This was fueled by the news that Ark Invest and 21Shares filed applications with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot ETF on Ethereum.

Some say recent verdicts in favor of cryptocurrency firms Grayscale and Ripple Labs in lawsuits against the SEC increase the chances that ETF applications for Ethereum will be approved. We also note that applications for bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and other funds are being reviewed by the SEC, but the deadlines for these applications, originally set for early September, have been postponed to a later date.

Meanwhile, Barrons writes that the NASDAQ exchange is preparing infrastructure for cryptocurrency trading, which is causing bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. But the BTC/USD chart gives reason to doubt.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

407Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:50 pm

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Commodity Currencies, Pound and Euro in Search of Medium-term Bottom
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Yesterday's multidirectional statistics from the US contributed to the test of significant levels by major currency pairs. Thus, the GBP/USD pair fell to 1.2500, the EUR/USD pair re-tested 1.0700, and commodity currencies managed to find temporary support.

AUD/USD

In early September, the Australian currency came under additional pressure due to negative economic data from China. The slowdown in the world's second largest economy, provoked by the deepening decline in the real estate market, could not but affect the currencies of China's trading partners. After the RBA left the base interest rate unchanged at the beginning of the week, the AUD/USD pair updated the August low of this year at 0.6360. Yesterday, buyers managed to keep the price above the recent lows, but if the situation in the commodity market does not stabilise, the downtrend may continue towards 0.6100-0.6000. Cancellation of the downward scenario may be considered after a firm consolidation above 0.6520.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis, today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

408Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:47 pm

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USD/CAD Analysis: How the Bank of Canada Decision Affected the National Currency
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Yesterday it became known that the Bank of Canada (BOC) decided to keep the rate at 5% — the highest level in 22 years.

Here are the key takeaways from CEO Tiff Macklem's press conference:

→ excess demand is declining, but the BOC is remaining concerned about persistence of high inflation;
→ the labor market is gradually calming down, but wage growth remains high;
→ second-quarter GDP contraction attributed to a noticeable slowdown in consumption growth, a slowdown in housing market growth and the impact of wildfires across the country.

Although the decision to leave the rate unchanged is a move that economists expected in a Bloomberg survey, there has been some spike in volatility in the foreign exchange market. The first emotional reaction of market participants led to the depreciation of the CAD against other currencies. But at the end of the day, the Canadian dollar strengthened — apparently, market participants still see positive in the prospects of the Canadian economy, taking into account the statements of the head of the Bank of Canada.

At the same time, an interesting situation is emerging on the USD/CAD chart – the rate has declined from the important level of 1.365, from which reversals were repeatedly formed earlier this year (as the arrows show). What can we say about the formation of another bearish reversal?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

409Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Thu Sep 07, 2023 10:10 am

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Nikkei 225 Reaches Psychological Level at 33,000
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In 2023, Japan's stock market is in a bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) as the country has an ultra-loose monetary policy (unlike other G7 countries that are fighting inflation). As a result, the cheap yen helps Japanese companies, which are largely export-oriented, to develop. According to the Cabinet of Japan, GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The growth of the Japanese stock market from the beginning of the year to today is about 28%. And on Sept. 5, the Nikkei 225 closed above the psychological 33,000 level. Yahoo Finance reports that Kenji Abe, Daiwa Securities equity strategist, predicts the Nikkei could gradually rise to 35,000 after a strong reporting season this summer.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

410Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Sep 06, 2023 1:23 pm

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The US Dollar Strengthens to a Maximum of Six Months
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On Tuesday, financial market participants received a piece of data that gives signs of a slowdown in economies in different countries. Namely, the PMI index (an index of purchasing managers, which is considered a leading economic indicator) showed a negative trend in China and a number of European countries.

This led to a decrease in exchange rates against the US dollar.

Today, the US PMI data will be released, which is likely to affect the current strength of the US dollar index, as well as provide important information for the Fed's interest rate decision. The next meeting will be held on September 19-20.

According to the CME FEDWatch tool, there is a 7% chance that rates will be raised in September. However, the probability that it will be increased by the end of the year is about 45%.

“I can well imagine, from what I see so far, that we might have to go a bit higher, that we might have to raise the policy rate a bit more,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with German newspaper Börsen-Zeitung published on Tuesday.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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411Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:26 am

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EUR/USD Nosedives While USD/JPY Surged Further
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.0940. USD/JPY is rising and might climb further toward the 148.80 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0860 support zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 146.10 and 147.00 levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 147.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0940 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0860 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0805 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0707 and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0760 and a key bearish trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0805. The main resistance is now near 1.0860. An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0940.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0705. The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0635. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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412Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Sep 05, 2023 12:18 pm

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AUD/USD Falls Sharply after the Decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at 4.10% for the third month today, fueling rumors that the tightening cycle is over. Although according to Reuters, the majority of economists polled by the agency expect another increase by the end of the year after the release of the inflation report for the third quarter.

In the words of RBA chief Philip Lowe today:

→ data indicate that inflation could return to the 2-3% target range at the end of 2025;

→ the labor market remains strong and the economy operates at a high level of capacity utilization, although its development has slowed down;

→ further tightening is still acceptable if inflation is to be suppressed, which stands at 4.9% in July (at an 18-month low).

Reacting to the results of the RBA meeting, the AUD/USD rate fell to the lows of the year, to the level of 0.637.

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413Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Tue Sep 05, 2023 12:15 pm

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The Price of Oil Sets Maximum of the Year
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Yesterday, the price of WTI oil rose above USD 85.50 per barrel. This has not happened since November 2022.

On August 24, we wrote that the price of oil could find support for growth from the lower border of the rising channel, as well as from the level of USD 78.50. Since then, the price of WTI oil has risen by more than 9%. Fundamentally this contributed to:

→ the policy of limiting production by OPEC+ countries;

→ expectations that the Chinese economy will recover thanks to the incentives of the authorities.

According to Trafigura, a large company trading mainly in metals and energy resources, investment in the development of the oil industry is not enough, and a price of up to USD 88 can be considered fair in the current circumstances.

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414Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Sep 04, 2023 9:48 pm

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The US Dollar Is Up after Mixed News
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EUR/USD

The euro fell on Friday as the dollar rose after the August jobs report showed that the labor market is still strong despite some signs of deterioration. Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, beating expectations for an increase of 170,000. But data for July was revised down to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, higher than expected 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 4.3% year-on-year, below expectations for a 4.4% increase. The US dollar index last rose 0.58% to 104.23. It gained 0.08% over the week, overcoming a price drop earlier in the week caused by softening economic data. The euro fell 0.59% to USD 1.0773. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847, an upside break could trigger a move towards 1.0859. On the other hand, immediate support is seen at 1.0763, a break lower could take the pair to 1.0740.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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415Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Sep 04, 2023 9:46 pm

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Economic Calendar: US PMI Data, Stock Market Decline, and Oil Surge
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After falling for the majority of August, stocks managed to rally in the last week of the month. The Nasdaq Composite surged by over 3%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.5%, and the DJI rose by 1.4%. History says September is primarily the worst period for the American stock market – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq usually go down this month. However, some analysts believe that a downward shift in consensus views on inflation and its risks may change the market sentiment to positive.

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416Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Mon Sep 04, 2023 9:42 am

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Show Signs of Weakness
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GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.2750 and trimmed all gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8580 pivot level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase from 1.2580.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2655 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8580.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8560 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2745 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound struggled to recover and declined below the 1.2655 support level against the US Dollar.

The pair even tested the 1.2580 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2577 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 1.2600 zone and it is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2620. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.2655 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low. A close above the 1.2655 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700.

Any more gains might send it toward 1.2745. If not, the pair could resume its decline below 1.2600. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2580.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2580 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2550 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2450 support.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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417Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Sat Sep 02, 2023 1:35 pm

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Watch FXOpen's 28 August - 1 September Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: FTSE 100, RATE HIKES, BTC, HPQ

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • FTSE 100 Goes on Massive Rebound! Marks & Spencer's Resurgence Sparks Optimism
  • When Will the Rate Hikes Stop? The Fed Ploughs on at Jackson Hole Despite Economic Progress
  • Bitcoin Trading Volumes Fell to a Minimum of 4 Years
  • Shares of HPQ Fall Sharply after Report


Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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418Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 01, 2023 12:03 pm

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USD/CNH Falls Amid Chinese Economic Stimulus
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Since January, the Chinese yuan has weakened more than 9% against the US dollar due to problems in the Chinese economy, as evidenced by statistics, as well as the bankruptcy of the developer Evergrande.

And today, the People's Bank of China announced that it will reduce the required foreign exchange reserve ratio to 4% from 6%, starting September 15. The move is seen as aimed at slowing down the yuan's fall.

Also, 5 major banks in China are cutting mortgage rates, possibly to reduce the risks of Country Garden going bankrupt.

According to analysts reported by Reuters, the measures taken may be only a temporary solution, but will lead to an increase in problems in the long term.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.



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419Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen - Page 17 Empty Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen Fri Sep 01, 2023 12:00 pm

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Turn Green
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Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,925 pivot level. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price started a fresh increase above $1,920 and $1,925 against the US Dollar.
  • A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,932 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $82.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.


Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a fresh increase from the $1,900 zone. The price was able to clear the $1,925 resistance to move into a bullish zone.

There was a steady increase above the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bears appeared near $1,950. The price is now correcting gains below the $1,942 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The RSI is back below 50 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,932.

If the bulls remain active, the price could start a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,942. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level. An upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,965. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,980 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,938 level. The first major support is near the trend line at $1,932. The main support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high at $1,925.

If there is a downside break below the $1,925 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,905 support.

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The Price of Gold Rose by 3% in 10 Days
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Back on August 21, gold was trading below USD 1,890 an ounce, but to date, its price has risen by about 3%. This was helped by published data on the number of vacancies in the US, which fell to the lowest level in almost 2.5 years in July. This and other signals of a slowdown in the US economy may influence the Fed's decision to continue raising interest rates further, which weakens the US dollar and supports the price of gold.

Bullish arguments:

→ the psychological barrier of USD 1,900 serves as an important support. The price of gold was there for only a few days, after which a steady increase followed.

→ The USD 1,920 resistance level was taken under control by the bulls after the breakdown on August 28-29. Now we can expect that there will be support here.

→ If a moderate decline on low volumes follows in the coming days, this will be a sign of a normal correction in a bull market

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bulls Lose Progress Amid SEC Defeat
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On Tuesday, the price of bitcoin rose sharply from around USD 26,000 to USD 28,000 per coin. This was due to a ruling by the US District of Columbia Court of Appeals that said the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to reject Grayscale's application to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a BTC Spot Exchange-traded Fund (ETF). A spot ETF would allow investors to access the leading cryptocurrency without actually holding BTC.

The SEC has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin spot ETF applications in the past, citing market manipulation concerns. But the court said the SEC failed to adequately explain its refusal to grant Grayscale's ETF bid, to the delight of the cryptocurrency community.

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The US Dollar Is Correcting in Anticipation of US GDP Data Publication
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The sharp strengthening of the American currency was replaced by a no less sharp corrective rollback. But whether this will be the beginning of a full-scale correction, we will see after the publication of important data for this week. In the coming trading sessions, the US GDP for the Q2, ADP Employment Change, as well as the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI in China will be released. These macroeconomic data are very important for market participants and can both reinforce existing trends and contribute to a reversal.

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FTSE 100 Goes on Massive Rebound! Marks & Spencer's Resurgence Sparks Optimism
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The FTSE 100 index, a prominent benchmark of the UK stock market, has witnessed a remarkable turnaround in recent days. After a month-long decline that saw the index drop from 7,700 points on July 31 to as low as 7,262 points by mid-August, a sudden shift has propelled it to its highest point in five days, exceeding 7,503 points. This article employs technical analysis to dissect the factors contributing to this rebound and highlights the potential impact of Marks & Spencer's resurgence on the FTSE 100's performance.

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EUR/USD Starts Recovery, USD/CHF Dips Below Support
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0830 resistance. USD/CHF is showing bearish signs below the 0.8830 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

  • The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0830 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CHF is consolidating losses below the 0.8810 resistance.
  • There was a break below a contracting triangle with support near 0.8830 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0770 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0800 barrier to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0800. It opened the doors for a move above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0830. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0880 resistance.

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EUR/USD Accelerates Gains from 2.5-month Low
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This was facilitated by disappointing data on the US labor market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of new vacancies has fallen sharply: actual —  8.8 million, forecast — 9.4 million new vacancies. The last time the value of the indicator fell below 9 million was in the spring of 2021.

The news came as a big surprise, which sent the dollar index down sharply. Accordingly, USD-denominated shares and gold rose, as well as exchange rates traded against the dollar.

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European Currencies Hit New Lows, Precious Metals on the Rise
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European currencies, along with the yen and commodity currencies, came under pressure again last week. After Jerome Powell's hawkish talk at the Jackson Hole symposium, GBP/USD fell below 1.2600, EUR/USD broke support at 1.0800, and USD/JPY came close to 2023 extremes near 147. In the event of a breakout of these levels, the upward movement of the USD may increase sharply, which will lead to exponential growth. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could lead to a full-blown correction in almost all directions.

GBP/USD

The British currency, which is sensitive to the risky mood of market participants, broke through important support at 1.2600 last week and set a new August low at 1.2540. Jerome Powell's statements about the Fed's readiness to further raise the rate, if necessary, sharply strengthened the dollar, contributing to the collapse of GBP/USD. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the current five-day trading period, buyers of the pound managed to return the pair above 1.2600 and at the moment they intend to test 1.2700. If bulls meet serious resistance near the range of 1.2600-1.2700, another downward impulse may occur, the target of which will be a test of 1.2400-1.2200. If the pair gains a foothold above 1.2700, the resumption of growth to 1.3000-1.3100 may happen.

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Bitcoin Trading Volumes Fell to a Minimum of 4 Years
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CNBC, citing CryptoQuant agency, reports that:

→ the total volume of bitcoins held on all cryptocurrency exchanges is at its lowest level since 2019;
→ as of August 26, the volume of bitcoin trading on all exchanges was about 130k BTC;
→ a maximum of 3.5 million BTC were traded in 1 day.

Perhaps the decrease in trading volumes is due to a drop in interest due to the uncertainty with the regulation of cryptocurrencies, or the fading of the bullish trend that began from the early days of 2023.

According to JP Morgan analysts, a decrease in open interest may indicate that the price of bitcoin is near a significant low, but the BTC/USD chart suggests that the bearish trend may continue. This is indicated by the descending channel, the outlines of which are becoming clearer.

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When Will the Rate Hikes Stop? The Fed Ploughs on at Jackson Hole Despite Economic Progress
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The United States Federal Reserve's consistent dialogue regarding interest rate increases has captured the attention of economists, policymakers, and financial markets worldwide.

Against the backdrop of a US economy that has shown remarkable resilience over the past two years, discussions surrounding interest rates have become a focal point of speculation and analysis. This article delves into the factors driving the Federal Reserve's decisions, the global context, and the implications for the US Dollar.

Steady US Economy and Debt Dynamics

The US economy's performance over the past two years has been characterised by steady growth and surprising resilience, given the substantial national debt that the country holds. Despite occasional fluctuations and challenges, the overall trajectory has been positive. The ability of the US economy to maintain its stability can be attributed to factors such as robust consumer spending, a strong labour market, and the government's targeted fiscal policies.

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USD/JPY Rate Updates the High of the Year
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Yesterday, USD/JPY hit 146.74 for the first time since November 2022. The rise in the rate is facilitated by the growing gap in the policies of central banks: while the Bank of Japan has kept the rate below zero since 2016, the Fed has been raising rates since the spring of 2022.

Moreover, on Friday, Powell said the Fed is ready to continue to remain tough in the fight against inflation. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is now a 62% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting, up from 42% a week earlier.

However, the limiting factor for the USD/JPY rate is the power of the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Last year, when the market was at current levels, the authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, lowering the rate to 140 yen per US dollar.

The USD/JPY chart shows that:

→ the price continues to move within the ascending channel;
→ on Friday, during Powell's speech, the median line was tested, confirming its influence as a support;
→ former resistance at 144.8 also provides support;
→ if the trend continues, the rate may reach the upper limit of the channel — that is, the psychological mark of 150 yen per US dollar.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal Downside Continuation
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6450 and 0.6430 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.5900 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6480 level against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  • NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.5985 resistance zone.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.5945 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6500 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6450 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430. The pair even settled below 0.6430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair is now showing bearish signs and trading near the last swing low at 0.6410.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6390. If there is a downside break below 0.6390, the pair could extend its decline.

The next support could be the 1.618 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6365. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near 0.6430. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6450, above which the price could rise toward 0.6490. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.

A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6620.

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GBP/USD Struggles To Recover, USD/CAD Holds Support
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GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.2665. USD/CAD is holding gains above 1.3560 and might start another increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2620 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3640 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.



GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2665 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2550 level. A low was formed near 1.2547 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a major bearish trend line at 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low at 1.2665.

A close above the 1.2665 resistance might spark bullish moves. The next major resistance is near the 1.2720 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2800 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2550. The next major support sits at 1.2510 or 1.2500, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2420.

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Watch FXOpen's 21 - 25 August Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVDA SHARE PRICE RISES, WTI OIL GO MINIMUM

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • EUR/USD: Price is forming a rebound from the support of 1.085
  • NVDA share price rises after positive report
  • The price of WTI oil falls to August minimum
  • GBP/USD bounces back after falling 1% in one day


Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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GBP/USD Bounces Back after Falling 1% in One Day
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The publication of news on the UK PMI index yesterday signaled an acceleration of the downturn in business activity. The index value was 42.5 (values below 50 indicate a slowdown in the economy). This is the thirteenth consecutive reading of the index below 50, with readings below 42.5 last recorded during the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

The first reaction to the news was a sharp drop in the GBP/USD rate, but by the end of the trading session, the rate recovered, which can be considered evidence of strong demand.

More bullish arguments are given by the analysis of the volumes of trading in futures for the British pound on the CME exchange:

→ the largest trading volumes for the year were recorded on June 13 (more than 240k contracts were traded at an average of about 100k per day). If you draw a horizontal level from the high of this candle at 1.262, you will see how it acts as support;
→ yesterday, extremely high volumes (more than 155k contracts) were recorded again on a candle with a long lower shadow. That is, high volumes, reflecting the activity of large players, may indicate the relevance of demand for the pound at a price of 1.262.

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The Price of WTI Oil Falls to August Minimum
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As the chart shows, US Crude Oil fell below USD 78 yesterday for the first time since July 25. This was facilitated by:

→ fears of a crisis that could follow from the collapse of the Chinese property developer Evergrande;
→ alarming PMI data from different economies. Japan reported a contraction in manufacturing activity for the third month in a row. Business activity in the euro area also fell more than expected, especially in Germany. Business activity in the US in August approached the point of stagnation, while growth was the weakest since February.

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