Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

BOJ’s decision Leads to Sharp Surge in Volatility
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The interest rate in Japan has remained unchanged since 2016 at -0.1%. Thus, the leadership of the Bank of Japan, unlike its counterparts, is pursuing a stable ultra-soft policy. This morning, the expected decision to keep the interest rate was published, but the attention of traders was attracted by the intention of the Bank of Japan to offer the market 10-year government bonds (JGB) at a fixed rate of 1.0% instead of 0.5%. This is a hint at a possible tightening of policy, which could greatly affect the yen.

Against the backdrop of the latest news from the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY rate was extremely volatile. The extremes of the last 3 days indicate a range formed by support at 138.0 and resistance at 141.4. It is acceptable to assume that after a surge in volatility, the USD/JPY rate will consolidate within this range.

Note also that the support near 138.0 is reinforced by the SMA (100) and the lower boundary of the long-term channel. But it is possible that a surge in volatility could change the balance of supply and demand and lead to a bearish breakdown of the upward channel that has been operating in the USD/JPY market since the beginning of 2023.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Breakdown Looks Real
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6760 and 0.6720 support levels. NZD/USD also declined towards 0.6150, and it remains at risk of more losses.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6800 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6260 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.6200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6800 level. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6760 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750. The pair even settled below 0.6720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.6655, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low at 0.6695.

The next major resistance is near 0.6720, above which the price could rise toward the 50-hour simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low.

A close above the 0.6760 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6790.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6655 level. The next support could be the 0.6620 level. If there is a downside break below 0.6620, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6600 handle. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6550 support.

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The US Dollar Weakens After the Fed's Decision to Raise Rates
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After the 11th increase, the interest rate reached 5.5%.

At the same time, the US dollar weakened because:

• market participants may consider this to be the last hike in the cycle (although Powell admitted the possibility of a rate hike in September);
  
• the Fed is no longer considering a recession scenario, which has reduced the relevance of cash as a defensive asset. Reuters reports analysts saying Powell's tone has become more dovish.
  

The weakening of the US dollar led to an increase in the prices of currencies traded in tandem with the USD. Thus, the EUR/USD rate rose by 0.75% from the low of the week, where the support block is located:

• level 50% of growth A→B;
  
• median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
  
• level 1.02, which worked as a resistance in June.
  

At the same time, the nearest resistance is at the level of 1.111, which was support last week. Pay attention to the rate of decline in the price on the EUR/USD chart on the 20th and 24th — a sign of the initiative of the bears. Will they be able to break through the support block, or will the bulls intend to use it as a support for a new swing within the channel shown in blue? There should be more arguments for reasoning after the news from the ECB is released today at 15:15 GMT+3.
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EUR/USD Takes Hit While USD/JPY Turns Green
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.1145. USD/JPY climbed higher above 141.00, but it might now correct gains in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro declined below the 1.1145 and 1.1095 support levels.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1095 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 140.00 and 141.35 levels.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 141.35 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1230 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1140 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.1095 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1020, and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1065. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.1095.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low is also near 1.1095. An upside break above 1.1095 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1140.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support is near 1.1020. The next key support is near 1.1000. If there is a downside break below 1.1000, the pair could drop toward 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0920, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Google Report Gives Positive Momentum to S&P 500 Price Ahead of Fed Decision
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Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, the reports of Microsoft and Google, one of the leaders of the AI-related boom, were published.

MSFT's share price fell more than 3% post-market as, despite Microsoft's Q2 performance for 2023 exceeding analysts' expectations, the company's forecasts for future periods turned out to be disappointing.

But the growth in the price of GOOG shares (in the postmarket) at the peak exceeded 7%. The company has demonstrated revenue growth in both search engines and YouTube and Cloud services, as well as through online advertising sales.

However, the main event of the week will take place today — namely, the news from the Fed at 21:00 GMT+3. Market participants are divided in their opinion: either the interest rate will be increased to 5.5% or remain unchanged at 5.25%. Also of great interest will be the words of Powell at a press conference at 21:30 GMT+3 regarding the rate of falling inflation, how much this will affect the current tight monetary policy.

Pending news from the Fed, trading volumes on the CME E-mini S&P 500 futures were well below average on Monday and Tuesday, but today there is likely to be a surge in volatility.
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The Price of Brent Oil Reaches the Level of Resistance
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Since the beginning of the month, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by about 10% — this July could be the best month since June 2022. Yesterday, the price of Brent exceeded USD 82, for the first time since April.

Among the drivers of oil price growth may be:

• production cuts by Saudi Arabia;
  
• restriction of export from the Russian Federation;
  
• expectations of new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy;
  
• summer growth in demand for gasoline and aviation fuel in the US.
  

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BTC/USD Analysis: Breakdown of July Support
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Yesterday, the price of BTC/USD fell below the level of 29,700, a support that has been in place for about a month.

What are the reasons for the decline? CNBC writes about:

    strengthening of the USD on the eve of the Fed's meeting on the interest rate, which puts pressure on the price of bitcoin, denominated in US dollars;
    an article in the WSJ raising concerns for the crypto industry in light of the pending SEC lawsuit against Binance.
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GBP/USD Revisits Support While USD/CAD Regains Strength
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GBP/USD is trading near the 1.2800 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3230 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2870 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is rising steadily from the 1.3120 support zone.
  
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3200 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.3050 support and moved into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2970 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2815 level. A low is formed near 1.2816 and the pair is now consolidating losses. It is testing a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2870.

The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low at 1.2890.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2970 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.3050 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2840. The next major support sits at 1.2815 or 1.2800, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2650.

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MSFT Stocks: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis
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This week 166 companies that make up 33% of the S&P 500 index will publish their reports for the second quarter. Among them, the second largest company in the index, Microsoft. And here, an interesting situation develops: the fundamental background is quite strong, and technical analysis shows signs of weakness. Judge for yourself.

Fundamental analysis:

• the Android version of the sensational ChatGPT will be released this week;
  
• Fundstrat analysts see a target price for MSFT shares of around USD 380 in the short term and USD 426 in the long term;
  
• Barclays analysts have rated MSFT stock as a Buy with a target of USD 425 (previous MSFT share price target of USD 425) amid Microsoft 365 AI rollout.
  

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EUR/USD PRICE ANALYSIS: UPDATE ON THE MARKET SITUATION
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On July 18, we wrote about the vulnerability of the market to a rollback from the block of resistance, which is formed by the level of 1.12 euros per US dollar and the upper line of the rising channel. Since then, the EUR/USD price has fallen by more than 1%.

The most noticeable was yesterday's decline in the price of EUR/USD, which was due, among other things, to the rise in price of the dollar due to a strong report on the US labor market. Weekly data showed that jobless claims fell to a nearly 2-month low.

How deep can the EUR/USD price pull back from the resistance block?

If the decline continues, then, from the point of view of technical analysis, the horizontal level 1.075 can be considered the level at which the bulls can try to change the situation:

    in April-May this level worked as resistance;
    approximately, here passes the Fibonacci line 50% of the growth A→B.

The decision of the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points could lead to bullish momentum in the EUR/USD price. The decision will be announced on July 27.
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Gold Price Dips While Crude Oil Price Could Extend Gains
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Gold price is correcting lower from the $1,988 resistance. Crude oil price is rising, and it could climb further higher toward the $77.10 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold prices failed to clear the 1,988 resistance and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
  
• Gold traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $1,980 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are moving higher, above the $75.00 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $75.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $1,966 resistance. The price even broke the $1,980 level before the bearish sentiment arose.

XAU/USD traded as high as $1,987 before the downside correction. There was a move below a key bullish trend line with support at $1,980. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50.

The bulls are now protecting the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,945 swing low to the $1,987 high at $1,966. If they remain active, the price could start a fresh increase.

Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,978. The next major resistance is near the $1,988 level. An upside break above $1,988 could send the Gold price toward $1,995. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,000 level.

Initial support on the downside is near $1,966. The first major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,945 swing low to the $1,987 high at $1,962.

If there is a downside break below this level, the price might decline further. In the stated case, it may drop toward the $1,955 support.

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FTSE 100 Bounces Back on UK Inflation News
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Participants in financial markets were closely watching yesterday the data on inflation in the UK, where it is at the highest level among the G7 countries. The news turned out to be positive:

• CPI was 7.9% (forecast = 8.2%, last month = 8.7%) in annual terms;
  
• Сore CPI dropped from 31-year high from 7.1% to 6.9%.
  

Consequently:

• the price of the British pound fell against the US dollar and other currencies;
  
• the price of the FTSE 100 index rose sharply, rising from the July lows by about 5%.
  

Thus, the quotes demonstrate the expectations of market participants — they suggest that the Bank of England has received a reason to ease the ongoing tight monetary policy aimed at suppressing inflation.

The publication of the decision of the Bank of England is scheduled for August 3, and the interest rate can be raised only by 0.25%, although earlier 0.5% was called more likely.

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EUR/USD Aims More Upsides, USD/CHF Turns Red
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EUR/USD started a strong increase above the 1.1150 resistance. USD/CHF is showing bearish signs below the 0.8650 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace against the US Dollar after it broke the 1.1150 resistance.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1225 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF is consolidating losses below the 0.8650 resistance.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8590 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a strong increase and was able to settle above the 1.1150 resistance zone. The Euro even broke above 1.1200 to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

Finally, it tested the 1.1275 zone. A high is formed near 1.1275 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1130 swing low to the 1.1275 high.

The pair is now trading below the 50-hour simple moving average. However, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1225.

The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1130 swing low to the 1.1275 high, at 1.2000. A break below the 1.1200 support could send the pair toward the 1.1150 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1240. The first major resistance is near the 1.1265 level.

An upside break above 1.1265 might send the pair toward the 1.1320 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1365 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.1440.

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Bitcoin Hits July Low
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The crypto community continues to discuss the victory of Ripple Labs in court against the SEC, expecting that the regulator:

    also loses in court against Binance, Coinbase;
    approves Black Rock's Bitcoin ETF application.

Crypto exchanges are resuming trading in the XRP token, and according to media reports, Congressman Richie Torres has appealed to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to stop attacking cryptocurrencies.

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EUR/USD PRICE: 17-MONTH MAXIMUM
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Last week, the dollar index posted its worst week of 2023 amid news of declining US inflation, which was seen as a motive for easing the Fed's current tight monetary policy. "I think the dollar can stay under selling pressure," Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters.

On the other hand, inflation in the Eurozone is not declining as fast. FT writes that some ECB officials consider it necessary to raise the rate several more times after the summer meetings, which supports the euro.

The EUR/USD chart shows demand dominance. At the same time, the price of the euro against the dollar:

• rose above the 1.1200 level for the first time in 17 months. Note that this level has influenced the EUR/USD price dynamics in the past;
  
• went beyond the upper limit of the ascending channel.
  

Given these 2 observations, we can assume that the market is in a vulnerable position for a pullback, and the bulls will need to make specific efforts to gain a foothold above 1.1200.

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GBP/USD Corrects Lower While EUR/GBP Aims Higher
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GBP/USD started a downside correction from the 1.3145 zone. EUR/GBP is eyeing more gains above the 0.8575 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is trading in a bullish zone above 1.3080 against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.3085 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase from the 0.8500 zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8565 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.2750 support zone. The British Pound climbed above the 1.3020 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above 1.3080 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 1.3145 zone before it started a downside correction. There was a move below the 1.3100 level. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.3085.

The pair is consolidating near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2910 swing low to the 1.3142 high.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.3080. If there is a downside break below the 1.3080 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.3020 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2910 swing low to the 1.3142 high, below which the pair could test 1.2905.

Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2750 support. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near the 1.3145 level. If the RSI moves above 50 and the pair climbs above 1.3145, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.3200 level or even 1.3240.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Extend Gains
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AUD/USD is showing positive signs and might climb further higher above 0.6900. NZD/USD is also rising and aiming for a move above the 0.6410 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6790 and 0.6845 levels against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6790 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.6355 support.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6395 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6630 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6790 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6845 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6900 zone. A high is formed near 0.6894 and the pair is now consolidating gains. The AUD/USD chartindicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6900.

The first major resistance might be 0.6920. An upside break above the 0.6920 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6945 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.7000 resistance zone.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6682 swing low to the 0.6894 high at 0.6845.

The next support could be a connecting bullish trend line at 0.6790 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6682 swing low to the 0.6894 high.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6790 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6730 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6630.

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XAGUSD Analysis: Silver Price Up Over 7% in 2 Days
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On Friday morning the price of silver was USD 24.8. The sharp rise was triggered by the weakening of the dollar on Wednesday, which was influenced by inflation data in the US.

When looking for reasons why silver is stronger than other commodity markets (for example, gold has risen in price by no more than 1.5% over the same period), you may not find satisfying explanations, but pay attention to information on twitter by Robert Kiyosaki (author of the books in the Rich Dad series). In his opinion, on August 22 in South Africa, at the BRICS forum, the creation of a currency backed by gold will be announced. Therefore, Robert predicts problems for the US dollar and suggests considering buying gold, silver, and bitcoin.

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XRP Is Not a Security!
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The ruling was announced by Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York. The litigation that lasted more than three years between the US SEC regulator and Ripple Labs ended in favor of the latter, to the great joy of the entire cryptocurrency community.

The head of Ripple Labs, Brad Garlinghouse, thanked everyone who helped the company win the lawsuit. And the Coinbase exchange announced that the XRP token will be allowed to trade again.

The price of the XRP token rose sharply in price against the backdrop of a positive court decision (we pointed out the likelihood of this event back in winter), while:

→ the capitalization of Ripple exceeded $40 billion;

→ “shortists” (those who bet on the price decrease) lost about $31 million, as evidenced by the total data on the liquidation of positions on the largest cryptocurrency exchanges;

→ the sharp rise in the price of the XRP token led to an increase in the price of BTC/USD, ETH/USD and other cryptocurrencies.

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Swiss Franc Strengthens to 2020 Pandemic Levels
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The USD/CHF rate fell below 0.87 for the first time since the spring of 2020, when financial market participants saw the Swiss franc as a “safe haven” amid panic associated with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Perhaps the demand for the Swiss franc in 2023 is facilitated by geopolitical factors: ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, tensions between the US and China.

The immediate hope for the bulls in the USD/CHF market may be presented by:

→ the lower line of the long-term channel (shown in red), which, from the point of view of technical analysis, can become a support for a rebound;

→ new statistics (once again, will be published today at 15:30 GMT);

→ official statements of influential people. For example, FOMC member Christopher J. Waller is scheduled to speak late Thursday evening, his words about new Fed rate hikes will help strengthen the dollar.

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The Dollar Index Falls to a Minimum of the Year
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Yesterday, important data on inflation in the United States was published: the CPI index was 3% in annual terms, this is the lowest value since the beginning of 2021. Thus, inflation is slowing down for the 12th month in a row, approaching the target of 2%.

Markets greeted the news with a surge of volatility — perhaps the quotes win back the expectations that the Fed will soften the current tightening policy (which is far from a fact). Against this background, the dollar index, calculated against a basket of other currencies, fell to a minimum of 2023 — respectively, the prices of EUR/USD and GBP/USD reached the highs of the year. Dollar-denominated stocks also rose in price (the Nasdaq 100 index updated a year's high), as did commodities (the price of oil rose to a maximum since the beginning of May, and gold rose in price by more than USD 20 in 2 hours after the news was published).

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EUR/USD Smashes Resistance While USD/JPY Nosedives
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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0975 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 141.20 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro is rising and trading well above the 1.1020 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1020 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 141.20 and 140.20 levels.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 140.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0835 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0900 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.0975 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was an upside break above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the 1.1026 swing high to the 1.0977 low.

The pair is now consolidating gains below the 1.1040 resistance. The first major support is near a key bullish trend line at 1.1020.

The next key support is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0995. If there is a downside break below 1.0995, the pair could drop toward the 1.0975 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0900, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downside correction from the 1.1026 swing high to the 1.0977 low at 1.1040.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1065 level. An upside break above 1.1065 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1120.

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Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin at $120k
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The value of the largest cryptocurrency could reach USD 50,000 this year and USD 120,000 by the end of 2024, according to analysts at Standard Chartered, Reuters reports.

Note that earlier, bank analysts predicted that the cost of BTC at the end of 2024 would be USD 100,000, but now they have increased their forecast for the price of bitcoin by 20%, based on the assumption of a change in the behavior of miners that can limit the supply of bitcoins as its price rises.

Time will tell how true the bitcoin price forecast for 2024 from Standard Chartered will be, but on the BTC/USD chart today there is an argument in favor of the fact that the forecast can be realized. This is the nature of price action around the USD 30k psychological level.

Compare 2 periods when the price of bitcoin exceeded USD 30k.

In April, the price met strong resistance only USD 500 higher, and a week after the breakdown of USD 30k, it rushed down.

And now is the second period, which began on June 21 and continues to last. The level of immediate resistance above the psychological level is already higher — at around 31k, and the price of bitcoin has not fallen (except for short-term punctures) below USD 30k for almost 3 weeks.
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Weak Dollar’s Position
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Bloomberg writes that the big hedge funds have flipped and are now taking a short position on the dollar in the expectation that the Fed is nearing the end of its cycle of raising interest rates.

It is possible that the weakness of the USD against a basket of other currencies is influenced by the announced intentions of the BRICS countries to issue a currency backed by gold.

Be that as it may, however, the EUR/USD rate has risen by an impressive 1.5% since the low of July 6, reaching a maximum since May 8. At the same time, the EUR/USD chart shows that:

→ the price has broken the downward channel upwards (shown in red);

→ the bulls are so bold that they are trying to break the double SHS pattern formation.
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The Price Has Updated the High of the Year, What's Wrong With That?
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In an interview with Fox Business, the CEO of Black Rock fund (over $8 trillion under management), Larry Fink, made some positive comments about bitcoin. Briefly:

→ bitcoin can become a catalyst for the tokenization of various assets and securities, which, in turn, can lead to a revolution in the financial sector;
→ bitcoin has unique properties that distinguish it from traditional stores of value such as gold. For example, its international recognition.

Fink also expressed the hope that the positive experience of cooperation between Black Rock and the SEC will allow the regulator to approve the launch of an ETF based on bitcoin (the application has already been submitted, but Larry did not give forecasts on the timing of its consideration).
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Gold Price Struggles While Crude Oil Price Aims Higher
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Gold price is moving lower below the $1,918 support. Crude oil price is rising as the bulls aim for a move above the $72.20 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the $1,930 resistance and start a fresh decline against the US Dollar.
  
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $71.50 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $70.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to start a fresh increase above the $1,930 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,918 support.

There was a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and $1,912. It tested the $1,910 support zone. A low is formed at $1,902.60 and the price is now consolidating losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,927 swing high to the $1,902 low.

The price is now facing resistance near the $1,912 level. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,918. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,927 swing high to the $1,902 low.

The main resistance is near a bearish trend line at $1,925 and then $1,930. An upside break above the $1,930 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,938. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,950 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,902 level. The first major support is near the $1,892 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,892 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,880 support.

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FTSE 100 Drops Below June Low
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Earlier we wrote about the reasons for the weak behavior of the UK stock market.

Firstly, it is the highest inflation among the G7 countries.

Yesterday JP Morgan analysts suggested that the base rate in the UK could be raised to 7% under certain scenarios. And the likelihood of a hard landing for the British economy next year is rising due to the impact of rising borrowing costs on business confidence and rising unemployment.

Secondly, this is a decline in commodity prices, which is important for the FTSE 100 index, where the share of oil and mining companies is relatively large. Commodity prices reflect expectations of a global economic growth outlook that has been overshadowed by news from China. There, according to the latest data, activity in the services sector in June grew at the slowest pace in 5 months.
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USDJPY Analysis: Calm Before the Storm?
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There is some lull (consolidation) in the USD/JPY market, which is evidenced by the width of the Bollinger bands, which dropped to the lows of the end of February on the 4-hour chart. Bank holidays in the US in connection with the celebration of Independence Day contributed to the decrease in volatility.

However, the calm could be replaced by a storm.

The USD/JPY chart shows that the bulls have tested the level of 144 and on the morning of July 5, the rate is gradually rising towards the level of 145 — technically this can be interpreted as a demand force for dollars.

Reuters reports the words of Shusuke Yamada, chief forex strategist at Bank of China, who believes that the market expects further weakening of the yen in the medium term. And this is important, because last fall, the level of 145 yen per US dollar was the trigger for intervention by the Bank of Japan.

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EUR/USD Drops Again While USD/CHF Gains Strength
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.0930 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9015 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0930 resistance against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.8965 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8980 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled many times near the 1.0930 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0931 swing high against the US Dollar.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0890. The bears were able to push the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0835 swing low to the 1.0931 high.

It seems like the pair might continue to move down considering the RSI is below 35. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chartis seen near 1.0845. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0835 swing low to the 1.0931 high.

The next major support is near the 1.0835 level. A downside break below the 1.0835 support could send the pair toward the 1.0780 level.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0890. It is close to a major bearish trend line. The first major resistance is near 1.0920. The next key resistance is near the 1.0930 level.

An upside break above the 1.0930 level might send the pair toward the 1.0970 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1010 level.

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What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?
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Despite a quiet start to the week for the US holidays, there is still plenty going on. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates at 4.1%, sending the Aussie dollar lower before flying back like a boomerang to where it was trading, at 0.6680 against the USD.


On Wednesday (21:00), we get to see the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, where they held rates at 5.25%. However, the market is pricing in at least two more rate hikes by the end of the year, so traders will be looking for clues in the minutes as to if and when this might happen.

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