Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EURUSD Analysis: Price is Forming a Rebound from the Support of 1.085
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From the high of the year, set on July 18 near the level of 1.125, the price of EUR/USD fell in 1 month to the support of 1.085 (-3.4%). Today, the EUR/USD chart shows that the market is forming a rebound from this support, which has been in place since mid-June. What will be the further development?

Bullish arguments:

→ The market is in an uptrend (indicated by the blue channel) in 2023 and its lower boundary, which forms a powerful block of support at the level of 1.085, can help the bounce develop into a meaningful swing.
→ Support may come from SMA (100).

Bearish arguments:

→ The higher the price of EUR/USD rises, the closer the level of 1.095 becomes, which acted as support; but after the pin bar on August 10, the level was broken, and now resistance can be expected from it. If this is indeed the case, the market will form a weak bounce from the block of supports in the 1.085 area — a threatening sign for the current ascending channel.

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Gold Price Updates Minimum of the Year against the Background of Rising Yields of US Govt Bonds
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Treasury yields are rising, especially for long-term periods. For example, the yield on 10-year bonds today is 4.28%, and a month ago it was 3.88%, a year ago, 3.02%. Barron's writes that yields may continue to rise amid sustained inflation.

Rising US government bond yields are attracting investors who are diversifying their portfolios by moving capital away from the gold and equity markets, which is having a bearish effect on them.

So, according to information from MarketWatch, August could be the worst month in 2023 for the S&P 500 index precisely because of rising bond yields.

And according to Bloomberg, at the end of last week, the assets of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in gold approached the level of 2.8 thousand tons, having updated the minimum since March 30, 2020.

Today, as the chart shows, the price of gold has updated the minimum of the year.

Bearish arguments:

→ The price dynamics is developing within the bearish channel, which has been in effect since May.
→ The price has consolidated below the psychological level of 1900 dollars per ounce, from which we can now expect resistance to the price increase.

Bullish arguments:

→ The market is oversold, as evidenced by the daily RSI indicator. Therefore, the probability of a bullish correction increases.

This week, the BRICS summit and the Jackson Hole conference will take place, the news from which can have a significant impact on the price of gold.

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GBP/USD Consolidates While EUR/GBP Takes Hit
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GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2700 resistance. EUR/GBP declined heavily below the 0.8600 and 0.8565 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2700.
  
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2740 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8565 pivot level.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8545 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair settled below the 1.2800 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound turned red and extended losses below the 1.2700 pivot level against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2620 zone and recently started a recovery wave. There was a decent increase above the 1.2700 pivot level. The pair is now consolidating near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2740.

There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2740. The triangle resistance coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2689 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2740. The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2787 swing high to the 1.2689 low at 1.2765.

A close above the 1.2765 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2800. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2880.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2700. If there is a downside break below 1.2700, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2665 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2620. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.

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BTC/USD price analysis: The Price of Bitcoin Collapses by about 8% in One Day
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This morning the BTC/USD price is near 26,500, the lowest price since mid-June.

What is the reason for this? Among the drivers of the decline may be information that Elon Musk's SpaceX company intends to sell (or has already sold) USD 373 million worth of bitcoins. However, the collapse could have been influenced more by technical than by fundamental factors.

On August 8, we wrote that the ADX indicator fell to a minimum since the beginning of the year — that is, the market was in a protracted flat. It was a vulnerable position for the birth of a new impulse.

Note that the USD 30K psychological level acted as resistance in August — the price was not able to stay higher for long. It was logical to assume that the bears would try to take the initiative. And it happened this week — notice the widening bearish candles on August 15-16 as we approach the 28,800 support.

The decline triggered a cascade of stop-losses (more than USD 1 billion worth of positions on cryptocurrency exchanges were liquidated), which intensified the selling wave.

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Signal Negative Trend
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Gold price is moving lower from the $1,930 resistance. Crude oil price is also declining and showing bearish signs below $80.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the 1,930 resistance and moved lower against the US Dollar.
  
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,895 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are also moving lower below the $80.00 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $80.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $1,930 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,920 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,900 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,885 zone. A low is formed near $1,885 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is now testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,903 swing high to the $1,885 low.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,895 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,903 swing high to the $1,885 low at $1,900.

An upside break above the $1,900 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,910. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,930 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,885 level. The first major support is near the $1,875 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,875 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,850 support.

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XRP/USD Price Rolls Back to Important Support
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July was marked by the end of the trial between the SEC regulator and Ripple Labs in favor of the latter, which led to a sharp increase in the XRP token to a price above USD 0.9, but then a rollback followed after the first emotional reaction.

By the way, the trial is not completed yet. As it became known, the SEC intends to appeal the court's decision.

Bearish arguments:

→ The price of the XRP token may fall after the SEC formally files an appeal.
→ The price of the XRP token has rolled back by more than 2/3 from the July rapid growth — this is too deep a size for a normal correction.

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EUR/USD Extends Losses While USD/CHF Eyes Upside Break
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0000 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.8850 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1040 resistance against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0920 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.8745 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8760 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1040 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0000 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0970. The bears were able to push the pair below the 1.0900 pivot level. The pair traded as low as 1.0874 and is currently attempting an upside correction.

There was a move above the 1.0900 level. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0920. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0920. The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the1.1065 swing high to the 1.0874 low.

The first major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the1.1065 swing high to the 1.0874 low at 1.0970. An upside break above the 1.0970 level might send the pair toward the 1.1040 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1070 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0900. The next major support is near the 1.0875 level. A downside break below the 1.0875 support could send the pair toward the 1.0800 level.

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GBP/USD Analysis: The Pound Trying to Grow on News from Labor Market
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On Tuesday morning data from the UK market were published:

→ base wage rose at a record pace in the second quarter. It was 7.8% higher than a year earlier, representing the highest annual growth rate since 2001.

→ at the same time, the number of unemployed also increased. In July, 29k applications for unemployment benefits were submitted (expected - 19.2).

The first reaction of the pound is growth. It is possible that market participants have increased fears that wage growth will give the Bank of England more grounds for a sharper increase in interest rates. At the same time, the bullish momentum faded quickly, in line with the bearish momentum that has dominated the GBP/USD market since mid-July (as shown by the black line) amid the formation of the SHS pattern.

However, the situation may change.

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USDJPY Analysis: Rate Reaches Max of the Year
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The uptrend in 2023 is due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. As the chart shows, USD/JPY hit 145.22 yen per US dollar today. The last time such a rate was relevant was in November 2022 after foreign exchange interventions (marked with arrows).

Since the USD/JPY rate has again reached the level of 145 yen per US dollar, which is important for the Japanese authorities, traders expect official warnings regarding interventions, but there are none yet. Reuters reports the words of Joey Chu, head of Asian currency research at HSBC: "We believe that the Treasury will start moving in the 145-148 range."

Bullish arguments:

→ The ability of the exchange rate to recover from a sharp fall in early July indicates the strength of demand in the market.
→ The chart shows that the rate has not yet reached the upper limit of the ascending channel.
→ B→C retracement after A→B advance was less than 50%.
→ Central bank monetary policy differentials are unlikely to change any time soon.

Bearish arguments:

→ Presumably, traders may take profits from long positions, fearing currency interventions, which will slow down the current bullish trend.
→ This morning there was a false breakdown of June-July highs to force sellers to close positions and lure buyers in the wrong direction.

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GBP/USD Turns Red While USD/CAD Climbs Higher
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GBP/USD is showing bearish signs below 1.2700. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3500 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2700 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is rising steadily from the 1.3400 support zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3450 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2740 support to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2665 level. A low is formed near 1.2665 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2700.

The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2818 swing high to the 1.2665 low. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near 1.2740.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2818 swing high to the 1.2665 low is also near 1.2740. The next major resistance is near the 1.2800 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2880 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2665. The next major support sits at 1.2650 or 1.2640, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2550.

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LTC/USD Analysis: Litecoin Price Declines after Halving
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On Wednesday, August 2, the planned halving took place in the Litecoin network. Now the reward of miners for each mined block has decreased by 2 times from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. Theoretically, this should make the cryptocurrency more scarce.

On the eve of the halving, experts were bullish. Thus, financier David Cox voiced a forecast about a possible increase in LTC to USD 189.2. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe provided a bolder upside scenario to USD 200. Also positive statements were made by the creator of the Litecoin project Charlie Lee. However, in fact, we see that the LTC/USD rate fell after the halving.

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XAU/USD Price Analysis: Bears Approach Important Support
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Yesterday, fresh values of the CPI index were published, which testified to a moderate slowdown in inflation in the US. The actual value was 3.2% in annual terms (expected 3.3%, a month earlier = 3.0%, a year earlier = 9.1%).

In reaction to the news, the price of gold fell from a daily high around USD 1,930 an ounce to renew the August low. Such behavior can be interpreted as a decrease in the value of the precious metal, as it loses its relevance as a protective asset against inflation.

Earlier we wrote that August began for the gold market in a bearish way. The trend continues.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe shows that:

→ the price develops dynamics within the descending channel, which has been operating since May of this year;
→ yesterday there was a test of resistance at the level of USD 1,930, which served as support in early August. This is a bearish sign;
→ the price of gold is approaching an important support at the psychological level of USD 1,900 per ounce;
→ a series of lower highs is formed on the chart;
→ the RSI indicator rose from the oversold zone, forming a bullish divergence pattern.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Extend Losses
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6560 and 0.6540 support levels. NZD/USD is gaining bearish momentum below the 0.6030 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6600 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6540 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6120 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break below a major rising channel with support near 0.6060 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6600 level. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6560 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6540. The pair even settled below 0.6540 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.6509 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6616 swing high to the 0.6509 low at 0.6540.

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6616 swing high to the 0.6509 low at 0.6560, above which the price could rise toward 0.6600. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6615.

A close above the 0.6615 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6650.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6510 level. The next support could be the 0.6500 level. If there is a downside break below 0.6500, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6450 region.  Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6420 support.

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EURJPY Analysis: Highest Since Fall 2008
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Yen Weakening Drivers:

→ rising prices for energy resources. After all, Japan is a major importer.
→ The inflation index CGPI (corporate goods price index) indicates a slowdown in inflation. Therefore, this raises the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy.

The growth of the euro against the yen is facilitated by the fact that the ECB is pursuing a tough policy. Market participants expect that another rate increase could be made in autumn.

The EUR/JPY chart shows that the rate is in an uptrend. The market recovered quickly from the sharp decline on July 27, a testament to the strength of demand. Another piece of evidence is the amount of B→C retracement after A→B rises. It was only about 30% of the momentum.

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XNGUSD: Natural Gas Price Hits 5-month High
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The hostilities in Ukraine have drastically changed the world's natural gas transportation routes, and yesterday's information about possible interruptions in the supply of liquefied gas from Australia due to the planned strikes of workers led to the fact that the XNG/USD quote jumped above the psychological level of USD 3.0.

Citigroup analysts believe that gas prices in Europe could double by January if strikes in Australia, which is an important supplier of liquefied gas to Europe and Asia, drag on through the autumn.

And the FT writes that yesterday's growth was accelerated due to the fact that traders closed short positions, thereby increasing demand.

The XNG price chart shows that the extremes of summer are forming an ascending channel, and its upper limit has not yet been reached. The ability of the bulls to gain a foothold above the psychological level of USD 3.0 will indicate the strength of demand.

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EUR/USD Dips Again While USD/JPY Gains Traction
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.1040. USD/JPY is rising and might climb further toward the 145.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.1040 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0975 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 142.50 and 143.00 levels.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 143.00 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1040 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1015 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.1000 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0929 and the pair is now correcting losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1042 swing high to the 1.0929 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0975 and a key bearish trend line. The next major resistance is near 1.1015.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1042 swing high to the 1.0929 low is also near 1.1015. The main resistance is still near 1.1040. An upside break above 1.1040 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1100.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0930. The next key support is near 1.0910. If there is a downside break below 1.0910, the pair could drop toward 1.0880. The main support is near 1.0850, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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The Price of Brent Oil Approaching the Highs of the Year
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The price is driven up by:

→ the policy of limiting oil production by OPEC+ countries. For example, Saudi Arabia last week announced a cut in production by 1 million barrels per day until the end of September, adding that the decision could be extended. Russia is also reducing production volumes. We wrote about the scenario of increasing growth in the price of Brent oil due to production cuts in a post dated July 7;
→ hopes/rumors that the Chinese authorities will stimulate the economy, which is not recovering enough after the lifting of COVID-related restrictions.

Selling pressure is driven by:

→ raising rates by Western central banks to fight high inflation.

Under the influence of these and other factors, the price of Brent oil rose close to the highs of the year around USD 87 per barrel, forming an upward channel. At the same time, in August, the price bounced strongly from its lower border twice, indicating the strength of demand. On the other hand, the progress of the bulls in the formation of the August high is very small, if you compare this peak with the previous one, set on the 2nd of August — a sign of the exhaustion of the bullish momentum.

It is reasonable to assume that the market can find a balance at current levels, and the price will enter the consolidation range, as holders of long positions can take profits after the increase in the price of Brent oil by more than 14% since July 1. At the same time, false breakdowns of the high of the year are not ruled out.

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BTC/USD Price Analysis: ADX Indicator Falls to the Lowest Level of 2023
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The latest news from the world of cryptocurrencies could be both bearish and bullish drivers:

→ PayPal launches a stablecoin that will be pegged to the dollar and backed by US Treasuries;

→ Cathie Wood believes that the SEC can approve several BTC ETFs at the same time;

→ the Central Bank of Brazil plans to launch its digital currency called DREX in 2024;

→ rumors about problems with the USDC stablecoin are spreading in the network;

→ the US Department of Justice is considering filing fraud charges against Binance.

However, the BTC/USD rate has stabilized around USD 29,000 per coin since July 25th. The bitcoin market is showing unusually low volatility (except for the surge associated with news from the Fed). At the same time, the ADX indicator, which helps determine the presence of a trend, fell to its lowest level since 2023. Obviously, this indicates that the market is flat. But note the trend that followed in early 2023 as the ADX fell close to its current low.
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GBP/USD Struggles While EUR/GBP Aims Higher
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GBP/USD is struggling to gain pace above the 1.2800 resistance. EUR/GBP is rising and might rise above the 0.8650 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2680.
  
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2725 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP is rising and trading above the 0.8600 zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8625 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2880 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound extended losses below the 1.2800 pivot level against the US Dollar.

The pair even tested the 1.2620 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2620 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 1.2680 resistance zone. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2725.

However, the pair struggled to clear the 1.2800 resistance zone. A high is formed near 1.2792 and the pair is now correcting gains. It is trading near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2725 and approaching the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2620 swing low to the 1.2792 high.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2680. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2620 swing low to the 1.2792 high.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2680 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2620 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2550. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2750. The next major resistance is near the 1.2800 zone. A close above the 1.2800 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2880.

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Gold and Crude Oil: Long-Term Outlook
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Gold price could restart a steady increase above the $1,990 resistance. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward $85.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price corrected lower from $2,080 and tested $1,900 against the US Dollar.
  
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,940 on the daily chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $76.75 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near $71.00 on the daily chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the daily chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a downside correction from the $2,080 zone. The price traded below the $2,050 and $1,990 levels.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the $1,900 level. A low was formed near $1,900 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,080 swing high to the $1,900 low.

The price is now trading above the 50-day simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,940.

Immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,080 swing high to the $1,900 low at $1,990. The next major resistance is near $2,000. An upside break above $2,000 could send Gold price toward $2,050. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,080 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,940 level. The first major support is near $1,900. If there is a downside break below $1,900, the price might decline further. In the stated case, XAU/USD might drop toward $1,805.

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The GBP/USD Exchange Rate Falls to a Month’s Minimum
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Yesterday and today, the GBP/USD rate fell below 1.27 for the first time since July 6. A number of factors contributed to this:

• strengthening of the US dollar index due to downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch;
  
• strong data on the ADP labor market — the number of jobs in the US, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by more than 300k over the month;
  
• market expectation of news from the Bank of England, which will publish its interest rate decision today at 14:00 GMT+3.
  

According to Reuters, forecasts for the UK economy are disappointing. Market participants expect a 14th rate hike by the Bank of England by 0.25%.

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EUR/USD and USD/JPY Daily Chart Outlook: Dollar Could Outperform
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. USD/JPY is rising and might aim to move above the 144.85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis

• The Euro failed to clear 1.1265 and declined below 1.1090.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965 on the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed above the 140.00 and 141.15 levels.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 139.00 on the daily chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1090 support zone to move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even spiked below 1.1000 before the bulls emerged near 1.0965. The euro seems to be finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0920.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high is also near 1.0920. If there is a downside break below 1.0920, the pair could drop toward 1.0800. Any more losses could open the doors for a move to 1.0660.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1090 zone, above which the bulls might aim for a steady increase. The next major resistance is near 1.1265. An upside break above 1.1265 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1340.

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Australian Dollar Plummeting After RBA Decision
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this morning decided to leave the interest rate at 4.10%, although market participants expected an increase to 4.35%.

According to the forecast of the central bank, inflation in Australia will return to its target range of 2-3% by the end of 2025 from the current 6%. At the same time, a warning was made that additional tightening (rate increase) may be required to curb inflation.
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GBP/USD Attempts Fresh Increase While EUR/GBP Faces Hurdle
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GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2770 region. EUR/GBP is consolidating and remains at risk of more downsides below 0.8545.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.2805 resistance.
  
• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2860 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP declined below the 0.8600 and 0.8580 support levels.
  
• There is a key breakout pattern forming with support near 0.8560 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.3000 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound would remain at risk of more downsides if it cleared the 1.2840 and 1.2805 levels against the US Dollar.

The pair extended its decline and tested the 1.2770 zone. A low is formed near 1.2762, and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2995 swing high to the 1.2762 low.

The pair is now consolidating below the 50-hour simple moving average. The GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a short-term contracting triangle at 1.2860.

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2995 swing high to the 1.2762 low at 1.2880. The main breakout zone could be 1.2900. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2900, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.3000 level or even 1.3050.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2805. If there is a downside break below it, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major support is near the 1.2770 zone, below which GBP/USD could test 1.2740. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.2650.

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BOJ’s decision Leads to Sharp Surge in Volatility
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The interest rate in Japan has remained unchanged since 2016 at -0.1%. Thus, the leadership of the Bank of Japan, unlike its counterparts, is pursuing a stable ultra-soft policy. This morning, the expected decision to keep the interest rate was published, but the attention of traders was attracted by the intention of the Bank of Japan to offer the market 10-year government bonds (JGB) at a fixed rate of 1.0% instead of 0.5%. This is a hint at a possible tightening of policy, which could greatly affect the yen.

Against the backdrop of the latest news from the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY rate was extremely volatile. The extremes of the last 3 days indicate a range formed by support at 138.0 and resistance at 141.4. It is acceptable to assume that after a surge in volatility, the USD/JPY rate will consolidate within this range.

Note also that the support near 138.0 is reinforced by the SMA (100) and the lower boundary of the long-term channel. But it is possible that a surge in volatility could change the balance of supply and demand and lead to a bearish breakdown of the upward channel that has been operating in the USD/JPY market since the beginning of 2023.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Breakdown Looks Real
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6760 and 0.6720 support levels. NZD/USD also declined towards 0.6150, and it remains at risk of more losses.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6800 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6260 resistance zone.
  
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.6200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6800 level. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6760 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750. The pair even settled below 0.6720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.6655, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low at 0.6695.

The next major resistance is near 0.6720, above which the price could rise toward the 50-hour simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low.

A close above the 0.6760 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6790.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6655 level. The next support could be the 0.6620 level. If there is a downside break below 0.6620, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6600 handle. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6550 support.

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The US Dollar Weakens After the Fed's Decision to Raise Rates
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After the 11th increase, the interest rate reached 5.5%.

At the same time, the US dollar weakened because:

• market participants may consider this to be the last hike in the cycle (although Powell admitted the possibility of a rate hike in September);
  
• the Fed is no longer considering a recession scenario, which has reduced the relevance of cash as a defensive asset. Reuters reports analysts saying Powell's tone has become more dovish.
  

The weakening of the US dollar led to an increase in the prices of currencies traded in tandem with the USD. Thus, the EUR/USD rate rose by 0.75% from the low of the week, where the support block is located:

• level 50% of growth A→B;
  
• median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
  
• level 1.02, which worked as a resistance in June.
  

At the same time, the nearest resistance is at the level of 1.111, which was support last week. Pay attention to the rate of decline in the price on the EUR/USD chart on the 20th and 24th — a sign of the initiative of the bears. Will they be able to break through the support block, or will the bulls intend to use it as a support for a new swing within the channel shown in blue? There should be more arguments for reasoning after the news from the ECB is released today at 15:15 GMT+3.
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EUR/USD Takes Hit While USD/JPY Turns Green
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EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.1145. USD/JPY climbed higher above 141.00, but it might now correct gains in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro declined below the 1.1145 and 1.1095 support levels.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1095 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 140.00 and 141.35 levels.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 141.35 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1230 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1140 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.1095 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1020, and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1065. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.1095.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low is also near 1.1095. An upside break above 1.1095 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1140.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support is near 1.1020. The next key support is near 1.1000. If there is a downside break below 1.1000, the pair could drop toward 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0920, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Google Report Gives Positive Momentum to S&P 500 Price Ahead of Fed Decision
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Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, the reports of Microsoft and Google, one of the leaders of the AI-related boom, were published.

MSFT's share price fell more than 3% post-market as, despite Microsoft's Q2 performance for 2023 exceeding analysts' expectations, the company's forecasts for future periods turned out to be disappointing.

But the growth in the price of GOOG shares (in the postmarket) at the peak exceeded 7%. The company has demonstrated revenue growth in both search engines and YouTube and Cloud services, as well as through online advertising sales.

However, the main event of the week will take place today — namely, the news from the Fed at 21:00 GMT+3. Market participants are divided in their opinion: either the interest rate will be increased to 5.5% or remain unchanged at 5.25%. Also of great interest will be the words of Powell at a press conference at 21:30 GMT+3 regarding the rate of falling inflation, how much this will affect the current tight monetary policy.

Pending news from the Fed, trading volumes on the CME E-mini S&P 500 futures were well below average on Monday and Tuesday, but today there is likely to be a surge in volatility.
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The Price of Brent Oil Reaches the Level of Resistance
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Since the beginning of the month, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by about 10% — this July could be the best month since June 2022. Yesterday, the price of Brent exceeded USD 82, for the first time since April.

Among the drivers of oil price growth may be:

• production cuts by Saudi Arabia;
  
• restriction of export from the Russian Federation;
  
• expectations of new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy;
  
• summer growth in demand for gasoline and aviation fuel in the US.
  

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BTC/USD Analysis: Breakdown of July Support
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Yesterday, the price of BTC/USD fell below the level of 29,700, a support that has been in place for about a month.

What are the reasons for the decline? CNBC writes about:

    strengthening of the USD on the eve of the Fed's meeting on the interest rate, which puts pressure on the price of bitcoin, denominated in US dollars;
    an article in the WSJ raising concerns for the crypto industry in light of the pending SEC lawsuit against Binance.
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GBP/USD Revisits Support While USD/CAD Regains Strength
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GBP/USD is trading near the 1.2800 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3230 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2870 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is rising steadily from the 1.3120 support zone.
  
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3200 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.3050 support and moved into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2970 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2815 level. A low is formed near 1.2816 and the pair is now consolidating losses. It is testing a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2870.

The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low at 1.2890.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2970 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.3050 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2840. The next major support sits at 1.2815 or 1.2800, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2650.

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