Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Watch FXOpen's October 17-21 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Semiconductor war between China and the US
  
• The US puts pressure on the price of oil
  
• UK inflation officially goes over 10%
  
• How UK’s political drama is affecting financial markets
  

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Gold Price Drops While Crude Oil Price Aims Fresh Increase
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Gold price started a fresh decline and traded below $1,650. Crude oil price is holding the $84.25 support and might start a fresh increase.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price failed to surpass $1,680 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,638 on the hourly chart of gold.
  
• Crude oil price is showing positive signs above the $84.25 support zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $83.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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Gold price failed to gain strength for a move above the $1,680 resistance against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline and traded below the $1,650 support level.

There was a clear move below the $1,640 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price traded as low as $1,622 on FXOpen and recently there was a recovery wave. The price was able to clear the $1,630 resistance zone.

However, the price failed to clear $1,645 and started another decline. It traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,622 swing low to $1,645 high.

It is now trading below the $1,630 level. There was also a move below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,622 swing low to $1,645 high. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,622 level.

The next major support is near the $1,620 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,600 support zone.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,635 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,638 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,638 on the hourly chart of gold.

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,645 level, above which it could even test $1,650. A clear upside break above the $1,650 resistance could send the price towards $1,680.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 20th OCT, 2022
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ETHUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $1263

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1205 on 13th Oct, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar. The price of Ethereum touched a high of 1342 on 14th Oct after which we can see a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets which indicates the present bullish trend.

We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $1263 handle which signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1291 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1294 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1296 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 47 indicating a neutral demand for Ether and a shift towards consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the Williams percent range is back over -50 indicating the bullish tone present in the markets.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an overbought market, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1350 to $1400 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

1. Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1263 mark
   
2. Short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
   
3. ETH continues to remain above the $1200 level
   
4. The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility
   

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1263
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ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday low of 1271 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1294 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the weekly time frame.

The commodity channel index is indicating a neutral level and fresh upsides are expected in the markets towards the 1300 handle.

Ethereum’s price continues to move into a bullish zone against the US dollar and is expected to move above the $1300 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 43 indicating a weak demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1232 and $1251, and the price of ETHUSD needs to remain above these levels for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has decreased by 0.40% with a price change of 5.16$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.465 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 15.87% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum continues to remain well supported above the $1200 level, and has now started to move higher aiming at the $1300 level.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trend line in place from $1263 towards $1359 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1273 which is a 38.2% retracement from 4-week low.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1375.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 35.00 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 69.59 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 3.83 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index (14): is at 59.91 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

UK inflation officially goes over 10%
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During the last year in which many Western nations have experienced high levels of inflation, there have been official figures which have been relatively conservative estimates, and unofficial figures which have suggested that inflation in the United States and Britain has been into double digits for quite some time.

It is, however, the official figures which tend to have an impact on the currency and stock markets, therefore today's revelation that the British economy has begun to experience 10.1% inflation is of great interest.

The news channels this morning were quick to highlight the inflation level going over the 10% threshold, however very little effect has been shown with relation to the value of the British Pound against the Euro or US Dollar.

This is perhaps because the anticipation has been steadily building over time, hence this is perhaps not a surprise, and generally it is surprises that tend to create sudden volatility in the financial markets.

What it does depict is that double digit levels of inflation in the UK have been reached, and this is not a good sign for the economy which continues to decline. The British Pound today remains at around 1.12 against the US Dollar, continuing its low value which, despite a few small movements upwards over recent days, represents a steady decline over the past weeks which followed a long period of rapid depreciation.

What we perhaps can learn is that despite the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt having almost completely reversed the mini-budget issued by recently installed Prime Minister Liz Truss, a clear sign of an unstable government and a weakening economy, the Pound has not suddenly crashed to even lower levels.

Perhaps it has bottomed out, or investors and traders have understood that the declining economy and suddenly unstable government in a usually extremely stable and calm nation is now a relatively long term matter, and that the state of the economy is now somehow measurable.

Therefore, despite the sensationalist headlines, the value of the Pound against its Western major peers is a case of business as usual.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Could Climb Further Higher
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EUR/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.9800. EUR/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 147.25 zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a recovery wave and was able to clear the 0.9800 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9835 on the hourly chart.
  
• EUR/JPY started a strong increase and settled well above the 145.50 zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 146.90 on the hourly chart.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 0.9660 zone and started recovery wave against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 0.9720 and 0.9750 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 0.9800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above 0.9850 and traded as high as 0.9875 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating gains near the 0.9850 zone.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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On the downside, the pair might find support near the 0.9835 level. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9835 on the hourly chart. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9702 swing low to 0.9875 high.

The next major support sits near the 0.9810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, below which the pair could even test the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9702 swing low to 0.9875 high.

If there is a downside break below the 0.9790 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions.  In the stated case, it could even test 0.9720.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.9885 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.9920 level. The first major resistance is near the 0.9950 level. A clear move above the 0.9950 resistance might send the price towards 1.0000. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could revisit the 1.0050 resistance zone in the near term.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 18th OCT 2022
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BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $18237

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 18280 on 13th Oct, it started to correct upwards touching a high of 19893 on 14th Oct.

The price of bitcoin has bounced back from its lows due to heavy buying pressure seen below the $19000 levels.

We can see the formation of an ascending channel pattern above the support level of $19000 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $18237 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 19475 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 19694 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 56 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 20500 and 21000.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $18237
  
• The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level
  
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $19651
  
• Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal
  

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal seen Above $18237
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The long-term bullish phase has now resumed and the price of bitcoin is expected to become super bullish above the $20000 level.

We can see that any dips below the $19000 level remain well supported. We are now heading towards the important resistance level of $20000 which if broken will pave the way towards $22000.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 30-minute time frame.

The Adaptive Moving Average AMA20 is giving a Bullish signal in the daily timeframe.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly Bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $19326 the ichimoku baseline, and the prices need to remain above this level for continuation of bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 19731 and Fibonacci resistance level of 19785 after which the path towards 20500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 1.36% by 262$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 29.008 billion. We can see an increase of 42.42% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, due to increased buying seen in the global crypto markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving in a strongly bullish zone above the $19000 level. Further upsides are projected at $20500 and $21000 as the immediate targets.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame. The price of bitcoin is back over the pivot point which indicates a bullish scenario in the weekly time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 50 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The prices of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $19000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.

Technical Indicators:

The MACD (12,26): is at 96.10 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 51.65 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 2.053 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 366.28 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Housebuilder stocks take a hard hit as UK market slows down
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The FTSE 100 index is once again below 7000 points today, and although it has risen from its low point of yesterday, it is still languishing at 6,975 as the trading day in London progresses.

This is a 1.3% increase over the previous day, but represents a 2.9% drop over the past 30 days of trading.

One of the main factors in bringing down the value of the FTSE 100 index is the impact that Britain's beleaguered economy is having on housebuilders, and many large British house building companies are listed on the London Stock Exchange and are part of the FTSE 100 index.

For example, Barratt Developments, one of Britain's largest residential construction companies, reported a 12% slowdown in weekly reservations in the period from August 1 to October 1, compared with the same period in 2021 due to what it politely calls ‘the backdrop of rising interest rates and wider economic uncertainty’ - ultimately referring to the rising interest rates putting people off buying houses, and many British banks having withdrawn mortgage products from sale, preventing people from accessing finance in order to buy homes.

Another large, publicly listed house building company, Bellway, recently reduced its its forecast for volume sales this year from 14,000 in its August trading update to ‘a similar level to the prior year’ or around 11,200 homes, which echoes the anticipated slowdown in house purchasing due to the flagging economy and rising interest rates.

Investor behavior has reflected this pessimism as Bellway shares dropped in value yesterday by 1% to £18.07 while Redrow Homes shares also decreased in value by 1.5% to 410p, with shares in Vistry falling 3.6% to 545p.

This has been a pattern that has made itself noticed for quite a few weeks, and the raw materials and mining companies which are included in the FTSE 100 index have been holding their value due to ongoing supply chain problems contributing to high demand for imported minerals and products used for manufacturing, whilst companies whose product relies on the strength of the economy and the ability for consumers to acquire credit have been struggling to maintain any form of growth.

Today, Bellway Homes announced that it has scrapped its plan to build 1,000 more homes this year, demonstrating that a large company which knows its market well is not prepared to invest in building homes that may not be able to be sold, or which would have a limited audience due to the unfavorable conditions toward mortgages at the moment.

During 2021, the FTSE 100 was the darling of investors. It rose above 7,000 and remained at such lofty heights for over a year. During that period, stamp duty (property purchase tax) had been postponed for properties up to a certain value, causing house building company stocks to rise, and big pharma was making a lot of revenues on the back of mandatory vaccines in many countries.

Only now has it begun to dip below the 7,000 mark and the companies causing this to take place are a telling sign of the situation of the overall economy.

Therefore, the pound's lamentable performance recently appears to be intrinsically linked to the performance of the FTSE 100 index.

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SO much volatility! UK Government to tear up budget in emergency move
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The currency and stock markets have been in a remarkable state of turmoil for many weeks now, and perhaps one of the most exaggerated differentials in price has been between the Western major currencies and the British Pound.

Traders and investors have been turning their back on the Pound Sterling, which has been struggling to retain its long-held status as the world's most valuable currency, and the charts have been displaying a continued downward direction for the British Pound for many weeks, a direction which has only begun to slow over the past few days.

Today, however, the Pound has begun to soar! It is now at 1.13 against the US Dollar, a position it has not visited for many weeks.

Many market commentators and analysts have been highlighting what appears at first glance to be a 'turnaround' for the British Pound, but the reality is that it is far from a turnaround - it is just a minor step up from the days before, as the Pound still languishes at a low value after weeks of decline, punctuated by an array of government U-turns, a mini-budget which was not well received at all, and the most short-lived Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) in British history, Kwasi Kwarteng who was shown the door after just a few weeks in his position.

Today, Jeremy Hunt, the replacement for Kwasi Kwarteng, is set to make an emergency statement relating to the outcome of the mini-budget, in which it is anticipated that he will tear it up and start again.

Mr Hunt, the most recent senior government minister to be installed without a single free vote having been cast, is the subject of high expectations from the British public who are weary at the floundering government's effect on the economic situation of the country.

Mr Hunt's reason for issuing a statement today is to attempt to calm the markets. One of the items on the agenda today is a statement to the House of Commons at 3.30pm, bringing forward measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, which is due on October 31.

Some critics have stated this morning that these statements are aimed at buying the government time, and there are even speculators who have aired their view that newly installed Prime Minister Liz Truss may be ousted by her own political party very shortly, which is perhaps one reason why a relatively cautious view is being taken by investors with regard to the British Pound and stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index.

As an undertone to all of the high profile government chaos and economic pandemonium, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates since the beginning of this year and speculation is currently abound that they may well reach 5% in January 2023, and has been buying bonds to the tune of £65 billion which is in effect a way of printing money to bolster a flagging economy.

Many banks pulled mortgage products off the shelves in the concern that interest rates may rocket, and this has been yet another indicator to traders and investors to be cautious.

It would therefore be prudent to assume that many people will be looking out for the results of today's announcement at 3.30pm UK time.

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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Eye Additional Gains
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GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave above the 1.1200 resistance. GBP/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 167.25 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound started a fresh upward move above the 1.1200 resistance against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1210 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  
• GBP/JPY gained pace after it was able to clear the 164.00 resistance zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 166.85 on the hourly chart.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.0950 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.1120 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.1200 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded above the 1.1320 level. A high was formed near 1.1380 and recently started a downside correction.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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There was a move below the 1.1320 support zone. The pair declined below the 1.1250, but the bulls were active near 1.1150. A low is formed near 1.1152 and the pair is now rising.

There was a move above the 1.1200 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1150 level. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1265 level.

It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1150 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1320 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.1380.

An upside break above 1.1380 might start a fresh increase towards 1.1450. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.1500 or even 1.1550.

An immediate support is near the 1.1220. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1210 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major support is near the 1.1150 level. If there is a break below the 1.1150 support, the pair could test the 1.0050 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.0000.

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Watch FXOpen's October 10-14 Weekly Digest Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• GBP/USD faces key hurdle, USD/CAD could rise further
  
• Professional traders go all out for FX market volatility as volumes soar
  
• Traders dump British pound en masse as BoE pulls plug on pension support
  
• Yen tests 1998 lows
  

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

EUR/USD Eyes Steady Recovery While USD/CHF Might Slide
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EUR/USD started a recovery wave after a sharp decline post the US CPI release. USD/CHF is declining and might slide below the 0.9975 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro is slowly moving higher above the 0.9750 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9700 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  
• USD/CHF started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.0075 resistance.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9985 on the hourly chart.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro saw a major decline below the 0.9750 support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 0.9700 support level to move further into a bearish zone.

The pair formed a base above the 0.9640 level and recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 0.9680 and 0.9700 resistance levels. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9700 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9926 swing high to 0.9631 low. The pair climbed above the 0.9750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance is near the 0.9815 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9926 swing high to 0.9631 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.9850 level.

A clear move above the 0.9850 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0000. The next major resistance is near the 1.0050 zone.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 0.9750 level. The next major support is near the 0.9720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A downside break below the 0.9720 support could start another decline.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 13th OCT, 2022
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ETHUSD: Evening Star Pattern Below $1337

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1381 on 06th Oct, the prices started to decline against the US dollar. The prices of Ethereum touched a low of 1267 on 11th Oct after which we can see a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets which indicates the bearish trend.

We can clearly see an evening star pattern below the $1337 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1277 and is moving in a mildly bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1268 and Fibonacci support level of 1275 after which the path towards 1200 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 36 indicating a weaker demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the price is back under the pivot point in the daily time frame indicating a bearish trend.

Both the STOCHRSI and the Williams percent range are indicating an oversold market, which means that the prices are expected to correct upwards in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL market signal.

All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL signal and we are now looking at the levels of $12500 to $1200 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bearish reversal seen below the $1337 mark
  
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bearish
  
• ETH continues to remain below the $1300 level
  
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility
  

Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $1337
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ETHUSD is now moving in a mildly bearish channel with the price trading below the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday high of 1302 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1272 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a bearish harami pattern in the weekly time frame.

The moving average MA50 is giving a bearish trend reversal signal in the 1 hourly time frame.

We have seen that the support of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

The daily RSI is printing at 38 indicating a weak demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1223 and $1227, and the price of ETHUSD needs to remain above these levels for any potential bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has decreased by 2.20% with a price change of 28.61$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.806 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 8.11% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum came under heavy selling pressure as it declined below the $1300 level.

Ethereum’s price has now entered a bearish zone against the US dollar and we are now moving towards the $1200 level.

We can see the formation of a major bearish trend line in place from $1337 towards $1265 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The prices of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1223 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1275 with a consolidation zone of $1250.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 26.30 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change: is at -1.61 indicating a SELL

Bull/Bear power (13): is at -16.20 indicating a SELL

The commodity channel index (14): is at -125.57 indicating a SELL

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Traders dump British Pound en masse as BoE pulls plug on pension support
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Will there be a run on pension funds? It was inevitable that the Bank of England would curtail its support somewhere when 'support' means literally printing money in order to keep fueling a collapsing economy.

Just a few weeks ago, at the point during which the British Pound was in absolute freefall against the Euro and US Dollar, the Bank of England introduced a £65 billion bond buying program which was aimed at preventing a market rout, which was viewed as a money printing exercise and raised many fears among investors.

Now, as the Pound has continued its downward slide, the Bank of England yesterday hinted at potentially ending its support by exiting its  emergency gilt support program to pension companies on Friday, as planned.

Speaking in Washington DC yesterday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated publicly that "The rebalancing must be done and my message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: you've got three days left now. You've got to get this done."

The result was a significant amount of fear among British investors and private pension contributors who began to raise concerns that their pension funds would become worthless, or that the companies responsible for managing them may face financial difficulties.

Commentary in mainstream news contained viewpoints such as people in their mid-fifties considering withdrawing their pension as a lump sum to protect it.

The market reacted as perhaps expected, with traders dumping the Pound and a further decline in value having taken place.

During the US trading session yesterday, the British Pound dropped to 1.09 against the Euro and further slid against the US Dollar.

This morning, however, messages have become mixed as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated during private conversations with bank executives that the Bank of England may look at extending its emergency bond-buying program past this Friday’s deadline, according to people briefed on the discussions which made its way into the Financial Times this morning, despite Mr Bailey having already told pension funds that they “have three days left” before the support ends.

Pension funds are now in the process of redefining their investment strategies as the support is set to end in just three days time, however with the British Pound in turmoil, the economy tanking and inflation rampaging, interest rates set to reach between 5% and 6% by January 2023, there is a pinch to be felt for borrowers as well as those who are saving for their retirement.

This double-edged sword has not gone down well with investors and the overall outlook for the Pound is bleak indeed, especially considering that the UK Gilt market is not in the best shape, and internal reports have shown that the pensions industry is in no way ready for the Bank of England to withdraw its support.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Gain Bearish Momentum Below Support
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AUD/USD is moving lower and approaching the 0.6220 support. NZD/USD is also declining and showing bearish signs below 0.5600.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6320 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6265 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  
• NZD/USD is gaining bearish momentum below the 0.5600 support zone.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.5595 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar failed to stay above the 0.6400 level and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded below the 0.6350 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

There was a clear move below the 0.6300 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the decline, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.6265 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart
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The pair traded as low as 0.6240 on FXOpen and is currently showing a lot of bearish signs. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6265 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.6346 swing high to 0.62405 swing low.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6290 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.6346 swing high to 0.62405 swing low.

A close above the 0.6300 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6350.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6240 level. The next support could be the 0.6220 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6220 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6165 level.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 11th OCT 2022
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BTCUSD: Triple Top Pattern Below $20441

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 20441 on 06th Oct, it started to decline touching a low of 18977 today in the early Asian trading session.

The prices of bitcoin continue to decline amid the selling pressure that is seen across the cryptocurrency markets globally.

We can see that the prices are ranging near a new record low of 1 month in the weekly time frame.

We can clearly see a triple top pattern below the $20441 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 19282 and an intraday low of 18960 in the Asian trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 43 indicating a WEAK demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 18500 and 18000.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mild bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $20441
  
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
  
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $19107
  
• Some of the moving averages are giving a SELL market signal
  

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $20441
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The fall in the price of bitcoin is in line with the three failed attempts at breaching the $20500 resistance level. We are now heading towards the important support level of $19000 which if broken will pave the way towards $18000.

We can see the formation of a bearish harami and bearish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

The commodity channel index is giving a neutral level and the relative strength index is approaching the 50 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $18656 and the prices need to remain above this level for a potential bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 19028 and Fibonacci support level of 19087 after which the path towards 18500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 0.92% by 176$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 28.521 billion. We can see an increase of 45.40% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, due to increased selling pressure in the markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bearish zone below the $19500 level. Further downsides are projected at $18500 and $18000 as the immediate targets.

After the recent decline, bitcoin is staging for a recovery once it breaches down the important support level of $19000.

The average direction index and MA5, MA10 are indicating a bullish rebound in the price towards the $20000 level.

The daily RSI is printing at 43 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $18500 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $19000 with a consolidation zone of $18800.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): is at -75.50 indicating a SELL

The ultimate oscillator: is at 44.42 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change: is at -0.661 indicating a SELL

Bull/Bear power (13): is at -10.73 indicating a SELL

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Professional traders go all out for FX market volatility as volumes soar
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The apparent economic disarray which has been unfolding across many Western nations for the past two years may well have resulted in a sustained devaluation of key major currencies such as the British Pound and Euro, but it has brought back something that was utterly lacking for more than two decades: volatility.

Ever since the last decade of the Cold War in which much of Eastern Europe was a non-participant in the global free-market economy and much of Western Europe was struggling under austerity and labor union chaos, the emphasis has been on steady growth and a pragmatic rise to prosperity for most members of the European and American public.

Over the past 30 years, we have seen many European nations unite and accept a common currency, we have seen Britain shake off the shackles of post-World War 2 austerity after the boom years of the 1980s transformed it from a tough climate of trade unions and beige attire into a property-owning nation of entrepreneurs and international trade, punctuated only by some high interest rates in the early 1990s and the financial crisis of 2008/2009 which only affected some banks and was swiftly recovered from.

Today, the citizens of Europe and much of North America are in a very different place. Over two years of economically catastrophic government-enforced lockdowns, taxpayer-funded furlough schemes, travel restrictions, the exit from the European Union of Great Britain, supply chain curtailments and geopolitical tensions have created rapidly depreciating currencies and massive holes in national balance sheets.

We hear endless reports about the cost of living crisis, and rocketing inflation, energy bills quadrupling and interest rates set to rise to such worrying levels that British banks have been removing mortgage products from the market.

This cocktail of woes has caused the Pound to tank over recent weeks, and although the Euro held up well, as soon as the European Central Bank began raising interest rates, it too began to sink in value.

The anomaly has been the strength of the US Dollar, which is proving its mettle as the world's most reliable reserve currency as it has held up very well against the Euro and British Pound despite the United States being subject to similar fiscal and political challenges as mainland Europe and the United Kingdom.

Interestingly, reports have focused on all of the doom and gloom, but have not been necessarily quick to note the upside of this, that being the increased interest in FX trading due to such levels of volatility which have not been present for almost 3 decades.

As an example, Euronext, which is a European electronic trading venue which operates exchange-traded funds, warrants and certificates, bonds, derivatives, commodities, foreign exchange as well as indices, has been experiencing a boom in volumes on its specialist FX trading platform Euronext FX to the extent that over 30% more trades took place on Euronext in September this year compared to the same period last year, resulting in an aggregated monthly turnover of $533 billion, which is up 18 percent from $452 billion that changed hands in the previous month.

Additionally, interbank FX trading is at multi-year highs in terms of volume, demonstrating that the Tier 1 banks are attempting to capitalize on the increased levels of volatility.

Today the US Dollar remains strong, as the Pound has begun to decline once again against the greenback, and the EURUSD pair languishes at 0.97, which is almost parity.

Yes, the economic outlook remains bleak across Europe and Britain, but the currency markets are alive with volatility.

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FTSE 100 approaches lowest point in 12 months
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The seemingly continual focus on the ever-decreasing value of the British Pound by analysts and traders has been such a central point across the global markets during the past few months that very little attention has been paid to the dichotomy that has been taking place on the stock market.

The London Stock Exchange is home to some of the world's most long-established blue-chip companies and its performance is a definitive measure of the health of the domestic economy from a corporate and industrial perspective.

As the pound made its way down to rock bottom, an interesting pattern emerged within the FTSE 100 index, which is the index that tracks the 100 most prestigious companies listed on the London Stock Exchange's main market.

During these recent weeks, raw materials and mining companies have been doing well, whereas banks and homebuilders have been doing less well.

That demonstrates the current situation in which the British economy is being viewed by not only investors but also banks themselves, many which have removed mortgage products from the market and are taking preventative measures relating to such lending related products in case the interest rate approaches 5% which is anticipated for January 2023.

Today, the FTSE 100 index begins the morning trading session at an almost 12-month low, with factors including high inflation which is driving up costs causing consumer spending to drop, increasing interest rates which are making access to external capital more expensive, continued supply chain disruptions causing global manufacturing delays, and the tanking Pound damaging earnings reported by listed firms being massive contributors.

It is perhaps not surprising that the overall direction of the FTSE 100 index has been a downward one, however some analysts are taking an optimistic view on some of the pharmaceutical stocks, whereas others are looking at the entire British market through a pessimistic lens.

On September 29, the FTSE 100 went down to 6880 points, its lowest point by far in 12 months, and after a slight rebound it is now declining toward that figure again.

The index opened this morning at 6959 points, still below 7000, and 7000 points has been a yardstick measure since mid-2021 when the market was in full upward swing and the news channels were going overboard on the FTSE 100 index having broken the 7000 points barrier, upwards of which it has remained until now.

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GBP/USD Faces Key Hurdle, USD/CAD Could Rise Further
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GBP/USD struggled to clear 1.1500 and corrected lower. USD/CAD is rising and might climb further above the 1.3800 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound failed to gain strength for a move above the 1.1500 resistance.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1130 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  
• USD/CAD started a fresh increase above the 1.3600 resistance zone.
  
• There was a clear move above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3650 on the hourly chart.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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After forming a base above the 1.0850, the British Pound started a steady recovery wave against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.1000 and 1.1200 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.1350 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 1.1500 zone. A high was formed near 1.1496 on FXOpen and recently there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the 1.1350 and 1.1320 support levels. The pair declined below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0765 swing low to 1.1496 high.

It is now trading below the 1.1200 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1020 area. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0765 swing low to 1.1496 high.

The next major support is near the 1.0950 level. If there is a break below 1.0950, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.0850 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.0750 support.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.1120 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1130 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next resistance is near the 1.1180 level. The main resistance is near the 1.1200 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.1200 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.1280. The next key resistance could be 1.1300, above which the pair could gain strength.

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Watch FXOpen's October 3-7 Weekly Digest Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• GBP/USD eyes steady recovery, EUR/GBP faces hurdle
  
• Dollar bounces back after record fall
  
• Oil is getting more expensive. What's next?
  
• Twitter and Tesla volatility as Elon Musk dumps stock to fund his purchase
  

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 06th OCT, 2022
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ETHUSD: Hammer Pattern Above $1263

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1372 on 30th Sep the prices started to decline against the US dollar. The prices of Ethereum touched a low of 1269 on 03rd Oct after which we can see a bounce upwards.

We can see the formation of an ascending channel pattern above the 1289 level and are looking at immediate targets of 1410 and 1469.

We can clearly see a hammer pattern above the $1263 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1366 and is moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1370 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1372 after which the path towards 1400 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 51 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the adaptive moving average AMA50 is giving a bullish price crossover pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

The commodity channel index, CCI, and the average directional index, ADX, are indicating a NEUTRAL market, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1400 to $1500 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above both its 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1263 mark
  
• Short-term range appears to be mildly BULLISH
  
• ETH continues to remain above the $1300 level
  
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility
  

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1263
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ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday low of 1345 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1383 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

The three white soldiers pattern is visible in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets which is indicative of the ongoing bullish trend.

The daily RSI is printing at 45 indicating a neutral demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1227 and $1276, and the price of ETHUSD needs to remain above these levels for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has increased by 1.11% with a price change of 14.93$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 11.464 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 25.95% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum continues to find support at lower levels and we can see an upside correction towards the $1400 level.

Ethereum’s price has now entered the bullish zone against the US dollar and we are now moving towards the $1500 level.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line in place from $1263 towards $1409 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly BULLISH, the medium-term outlook has turned BULLISH, and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1223 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1475 with a consolidation zone of $1450.

Technical Indicators:

The Williams percent range: is at -28.54 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 4.33 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power (13): is at 33.63 indicating a BUY

The STOCHRSI (14): is at 57.13 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Twitter and Tesla volatility as Elon Musk dumps stock to fund his purchase
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In today's age of influencers, there is one figure who can possibly lay claim to being the influencer of all influencers, and that is Elon Musk.

Known for making extremely forthright decisions and taking a leading position in, well, pretty much everything he does, what often appear to be vanity projects for self-promotion end up being sound business moves which disrupt entire industry sectors and lead to massive returns.

A case in point is last year's almost unbelievable scenario in which a tweet put out by Elon Musk crashed the value of five popular cryptocurrencies by almost $1 trillion, and instead of scaring people off in their droves, a large number of conservative, analytical investors bought in, and then a few weeks later a subsequent tweet by Elon Musk caused the values to rise again.

This fascinating working of the media by one man has become one of his trademarks, so much so that Elon Musk has been attempting to acquire Twitter for a few months now.

Just as he appeared to have given up, his interest in buying Twitter has resurfaced, and once again he is dumping shares in Tesla to be able to fund the purchase of it.

Back in April 14 this year, Elon Musk made his initial offer to purchase Twitter for $43 billion, after previously acquiring 9.1% of the company's stock for $2.64 billion. To do this, he leveraged some of his positions at Tesla and made loans, however the deal fell through.

Now it appears that the deal is back on the table and Elon Musk is back in the business of offloading Twitter stock in order to buy Twitter on the open market, a move that has been criticized by many traditional investors and wealth managers.

One comment, coming from Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives yesteday was particularly harsh. "Selling Tesla stocks to fund his Twitter takeover is like giving away caviar to buy $2 pizza" said Mr. Ives.

Tesla stock has been declining in value for a number of weeks, and yesterday's move was no exception. The market reacted to Elon Musk's renewed interest in Twitter with a downward move for Twitter of a further 3.4% on the US market yesterday.

Twitter stock, however, jumped up in value from 50.85 USD at the beginning of the trading session to 51.81 by lunchtime yesterday, showing that investors welcomed the news.

In keeping with Elon Musk's gung-ho approach, there is much volatility now in both stocks and it sometimes appears as though he enjoys this sort of market pandemoneum, hence his continued appetite for causing it!

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

EUR/USD Recovers Ground, USD/JPY Could Resume Uptrend
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EUR/USD started a decent recovery wave above the 0.9900 resistance zone. USD/JPY is rising and might soon clear the key 145.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro formed a base and started a decent recovery wave above the 0.9800 zone.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9910 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  
• USD/JPY declined sharply before it found support near the 143.50 level.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 144.55 on the hourly chart.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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This past week, the Euro found support near the 0.9550 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady recovery wave above the 0.9600 and 0.9680 resistance levels.

There was a steady increase above the 0.9800 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 0.9900 resistance zone. A high was formed near 0.9998 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting lower.

An initial support on the downside is near the 0.9940 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9754 swing low to 0.9998 high.

The first major support is near the 0.9920 level. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9910 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The main support sits near the 0.9880 zone. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9754 swing low to 0.9998 high.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.0000 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0050 level. An upside break above 1.0050 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might revisit 1.0150.  Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0200.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 04th OCT 2022
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BTCUSD: Three White Soldiers Pattern Above $18527

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 20328 on 27th Sep, it started to decline touching a low of 18525 on 28th Sep. After this decline, the prices have stabilized and we can see an uptrend in the markets.

The prices have crossed the $20000 mark in the European trading session today.

We can see that the price is back over the pivot point in the weekly time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the horizontal support levels in the weekly time frame.

We can clearly see a three white soldiers pattern above the $18527 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 19510 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 20099 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 74 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term we are expecting targets of 21000 and 22500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $18527
  
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
  
• The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $19931
  
• All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal
  

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $18527
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The strong bullish rebound that is seen is expected to continue in the short-term range and now we are looking at $21000 and $22000 as the immediate targets.

The adaptive moving average AMA20 is giving a bullish crossover pattern in the daily timeframe.

The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bullish reversal signal on the daily time frame.

We have also detected the ichimoku bullish crossover pattern on the 4-hour time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $19005 and the prices continue to remain above this level for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 20007 and Fibonacci resistance level of 200048 after which the path towards 21000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 3.80% by 730$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 31.762 billion. We can see an increase of 28.33% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, due to increased demand for bitcoin globally.

The Week Ahead

The prices of bitcoin are moving in a bullish zone above the $19900 level. Further upsides are projected at $21000 and $22000 as the immediate targets.

We have seen continued buying pressure at lower levels, as we can see the formation of an ascending price channel from $18527 towards the $20214 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 52 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $19000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): is at 142.70 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 60.39 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 1.75 indicating a BUY

The average directional change (14): is at 52.40 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

Tesla in the doldrums as Elon Musk offers political advice
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Tesla stock is one of the more volatile among big-cap publicly listed corporations, and the last day's performance has demonstrated once again that there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to its values.

Tesla stock fell over 8.6% in value during yesterday's New York trading session, adding a further downturn to the 14.6% it has lost over the five day moving average.

Opinions vary on what caused this particular collapse in value, however it did coincide with reports that the company's record delivery figures for its electric cars had shown how challenging it can be to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost, but surely there must be more to it than that?

Record deliveries of a product which is manufactured by a publicly listed company with shareholders to please usually brings confidence and Tesla's revolutionization of the entire automotive industry toward electric vehicles plus its standing as a huge market contender globally should go along with these record delivery figures nicely.

But it didn't.

Some dissenters consider that the entry level Tesla models such as the Model 3 and Model Y are quite simply not premium products, and despite their pricetag, are not much more well equipped or better engineered than budget cars from established brands in Europe and Asia at less than half the cost, giving rise to a possible feeling of marketing over substance.

That still wouldn't be enough to create such a downturn in share price though, because the cars are selling in high numbers and the revenues are pouring in more than ever.

Increased operating costs are one perhaps interesting area to examine. An expert in balancing the books, rival car manufacturer Ford Motor Company, recently said that inflation-related costs would be $1 billion more than expected in the third quarter and that parts shortages had delayed deliveries.

However, it may well be Elon Musk's tendency to go down the political path in the public arena that has had some effect.

Yesterday, Elon Musk said that, in the current geopolitical conflict, UN-supervised elections in four occupied regions that Moscow has falsely annexed after what it called referendums. "Russia leaves if it is the will of the people" he said, prompting a Twitter response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Politics and business often do not mix, and the more conservative investors often take a dim view of involvement in such situations which can create commercial risk.

Elon Musk is no stranger to that, of course, and has in the past caused crashes and booms by taking to Twitter to voice his opinion!

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

GBP/USD Eyes Steady Recovery, EUR/GBP Faces Hurdle
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GBP/USD started a recovery wave from a new low at 1.0341 and climbed above 1.1000. EUR/GBP is now facing a major resistance near 0.8870.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh recovery wave above the 1.0920 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break above a couple of bearish trend lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  
• EUR/GBP started a sharp decline and traded below the 0.8900 level.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8830 on the hourly chart.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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The British Pound found support near the 1.0340 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a recovery wave and was able to clear the 1.0650 resistance zone.

There was a decent increase above the 1.0920 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.1100 level. During the increase, there was a break above a couple of bearish trend lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

A high was formed near 1.1234 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1070 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0540 swing low to 1.1234 high.

The next major support is near the 1.0880 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0540 swing low to 1.1234 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.0750 support zone or even 1.0680.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1230 level. The next main resistance is near the 1.1300 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.1300 and 1.1310 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance sits near the 1.1500 level.

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UK Government ditches high-earner tax rate cut; Pound freefall halted for the moment
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The British Pound's tremendous freefall has been staggering viewing over the past few weeks. Just when it looked like it would not fall lower, a sudden further drop ensued, bringing the Pound to almost parity with the US Dollar and creating a degree of speculation that perhaps the US Dollar, given its remarkable recent strength, would overtake the Pound and replace it as the world's most valuable currency.

This has not yet happened, and today as the week's trading begins, the British Pound has made a very slight step in the upward direction, albeit still at very low values compared to its high points six months ago.

As the London market opened this morning, the Pound had risen by 0.7% to US1.2453 and 0.20% to EUR0.982.

It is being considered that new further tax cuts which are being expected to be released by Prime Minister Liz Truss in which the highest tax rate, 45%, which is applied to higher earners in the UK, presented a serious risk to the economy, and had been met with great unpopularity by the electorate.

Today, the government announced that it would not proceed with the tax cuts, and that the high rate of tax will remain at 45%, which has gone some way toward curtailing the freefall that the British economy has been in for some months now.

The new government has been criticized for potentially assisting 'the rich' whilst the majority of small businesses and private individuals in the country struggle against extremely difficult economic circumstances.

It is of course easy for those saddled with a 45% tax burden to disagree with the way that the current government has been spending their tax, however in terms of actual percentage of taxable income, it is unlikely that keeping the high rate at 45% will cause a 'brain drain' - that being a term for highly educated, high earners to consider leaving the country.

This is largely because any other Western country which provides a lifestyle as good as that in the United Kingdom will likely have similar tax rates, therefore not much advantage would be gained.

Whilst the Pound's dramatic fall in value appears to have slowed, the FTSE 100 is now in the sights of observers. It is expected to open lower today following heavy losses in the US on Friday and with ongoing nervousness about the state of the UK finances.

There is no doubt that just keeping the top tax rate at 45% is not going to resolve the serious situation that the British economy is in.

Stocks listed on the FTSE 100 are large, blue-chip companies with vast shareholder bases, and their ability to perform well on their home market is a critical measure of investor confidence and equally a measure of the overall condition of British industry.

At the moment, housebuilders and financial services firms are down, whereas raw materials miners are up.

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Could Gain Bullish Momentum
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Gold price started a recovery wave from the $1,615 level. Crude oil price could gain bullish momentum if it clears the $82.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price found support near $1,615 and started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,658 on the hourly chart of gold.
  
• Crude oil price also started a recovery wave from the $76.00 zone.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $81.75 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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Gold price declined heavily below the $1,700 level against the US Dollar. The price gained bearish momentum and declined below the $1,680 level.

There was a clear move below the $1,650 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price traded as low as $1,615 and recently there was a recovery wave. The price was able to clear the $1,625 resistance zone.

There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,687 swing high to $1,615 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,658 on the hourly chart of gold.

The price of XAU/USD is now trading above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,687 swing high to $1,615 low.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,670 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,680 level. The main resistance is now forming near the $1,688 level, above which it could even test $1,700.

A clear upside break above the $1,700 resistance could send the price towards $1,720. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,655 level. The next major support is near the $1,650 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,620 support zone.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 29th SEP, 2022
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ETHUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $1257

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1400 on 27th Sep the price started to decline against the US dollar. The price of Ethereum touched a low of 1266 on 28th Sep after which we can see a bounce upwards.

We can see a continued buying pressure today and the formation of a bullish engulfing line in the 2-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $1257 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1321 and moving into a strong bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its сlassic resistance level of 1327 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1331 after which the path towards 1400 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 53 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the adaptive moving average AMA20, AMA50, and AMA100 are giving a bullish trend reversal signal in the markets.

The STOCHRSI and Williams percent range is indicating a NEUTRAL market, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1400 to $1550 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above both its 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1257 mark
  
• The short-term range appears to be mildly BULLISH
  
• ETH continues to remain above the $1300 level
  
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility
  

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1257
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ETHUSD is moving in a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday high of 1351 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1313 in the European trading session today.

We have seen that the ichimoku price is over the cloud in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The Bullish harami pattern is observed in the weekly timeframe and MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the 4-hour time frame.

The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bullish reversal signal in the 30-minute time frame and now we are looking at the levels of 1450 to 1500 in the medium-term range.

The daily RSI is printing at 40 indicating a neutral demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1245 and $1285 and the prices of ETHUSD need to remain above these levels for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has increased by 4.27% with a price change of 54.65$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 16.127 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 13.25% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to the shift towards a consolidation phase in the markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum declined due the ongoing strength of the United States dollar and the increase in the market liquidity. We can see that now we are moving into a consolidation zone and the prices tend to move in a narrow range.

We are now looking for a fresh upside wave of correction towards the $1500 and $1600 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish trendline in place from $1257 towards $1491 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly BULLISH, the medium-term outlook has turned BULLISH, and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

The prices of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1250 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1550 with a consolidation zone of $1500.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional change (14): is at 25.71 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 0.156 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 1.606 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 56.76 indicating a BUY

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Big British banks pull mortgages: Pound tanks further while dollar soars
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Perhaps the greatest anomaly of this year remains why the US Dollar has held such a strong value against other major currencies given that the United States economy has been subjected to similar obstacles that have affected its peers in Great Britain and on the European Mainland.

As this week began, the British Pound collapsed in value to a record low against the US dollar as investors rushed to sell the currency and government bonds in a demonstration of skepticism over new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plans, however since then further displays of low confidence have surfaced.

Yesterday, 10 major retail banks in the United Kingdom removed a plethora of mortgage products from the market, and considerably reworked the terms available on some of the mortgage products which remain on the market, in order to manage potential risk if interest rates rise to the expected 5 to 6% by January.

Should such a level of interest rates be reached, this would increase payments on personal and commercial debt substantially, as currently the interest rate is around 2.6%.

This, combined with a tanking Pound, and inflation heading for 18% by January according to Citigroup analysts last month, is a combination of equations which do not make for a healthy borrowing environment.

By removing these mortgage products, the property market outside London has begun to be affected, and consumer activity including house purchasing is likely to be curtailed, which would slow down the economy even further.

The FTSE 100 responded to this accordingly yesterday, with house building company stock losing value whilst raw materials providers and mineral extraction giants rose in value.

It certainly appears that the commodities and materials sector is buoyant due to high demand, but anything requiring borrowing in order to purchase the final product is now sinking in value.

The Pound is now almost at parity with the US Dollar, as demonstrated earlier today during the Asian trading session when the British Pound reached a low point of $1.0327 against the US Dollar, surpassing the previous record low reached in 1985, before making back some of its value.

Precarious is an understatement. With banks mitigating risk on such a massive scale, it looks like the roller coaster ride is not yet over.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 27th SEP 2022
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BTCUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $18566

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 18279 on 21st Sep, the price has continued to escalate upwards and crossed the $20000 handle today in the European trading session.

This upside break was long overdue and now marks the beginning of rebound towards the $25000 level.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the 15-minute and weekly time frames.

The momentum indicator is back over zero indicating a bullish scenario in both the 30-minute and daily time frames.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $18566 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 19097 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 20310 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 75 indicating an OVERBOUGHT market, and the possibility of some downwards correction due to profit taking by the medium-term investors.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 22000 and 23500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $18566.
  
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level.
  
• The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $20179.
  
• All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.
  

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $18566
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The price of bitcoin continues to rise amid the buying pressure and improved investor sentiments. We are now looking at the important target levels of $22000 and $25000 in the medium-term ranges.

The adaptive moving averages AMA20 and AMA50 are both giving a bullish trend reversal signal in the 15-minute and daily timeframes.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 2-hour time frame.

We have also detected a bullish opening of the markets indicating the underlying bullish sentiment.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $19000, and the price continues to remain above these levels for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 20253 and Fibonacci resistance level of 20298 after which the path towards 22000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 5.87% by 1120$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 48.845 billion. We can see an increase of 46.08% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, due to global buying pressure by the long-term investors.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving in a consolidation zone above the $20000 level. Further upsides are projected at $21000 and $22500 as the immediate targets.

The price of bitcoin reached its peak value of $69000 last year the month of November, and at the present level of $20000, we still need to recover ground towards the $40000 level, which if reached will mark a gain of 100% from the present market level.

The history of bitcoin price action shows that it is capable of doing so, and has done in the past.

The daily RSI is printing at 52 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The prices of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $19000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $22000 with a consolidation zone of $21500.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): is at 323.90 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 62.28 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 5.93 indicating a BUY

The average directional change (14): is at 51.06 indicating a BUY

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Slight opening gain as FTSE 100 wakes up
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The doom and gloom that has surrounded the British Pound's seemingly endless fall from glory to almost parity with the US Dollar in its lowest point in recorded history has been a major consideration for traders across the world.

A clear indicator of the dire straits that the British economy finds itself in after many years of policy which has blown the coffers to an extent that there are serious concerns about how many people will manage to get through the winter, the Pound still languishes, but the FTSE 100 index has begun to increase just a few ticks this morning.

As the opening bell sounded in London this morning, analysts and traders began their day with a degree of optimism, expecting the London Stock Exchange's index containing its 100 most prestigious publicly listed companies to begin the day a few points higher than yesterday.

This mood was created by the Pound's slight slowdown in its apparent freefall, and news from the British government that the Treasury will hold a full Budget in the spring of 2023 and the Bank of England confirmed that it is keeping watch on markets and would not hesitate to raise rates.

The impending rate rises are a cause for concern, however, as a potential increase from the current rate of around 2.25% to over 5% by January is being speculated upon, and if that happens, it could well cause a serious issue for borrowers and plunge the economy into a recession.

In line with expectations, The FTSE 100 rose over 27 points in the opening session this morning in London, arriving at 7048.65, a gain of 0.4%. It extended a marginal overall rise notched up by the end of the previous session partially as a result of the news from the UK treasury.

Caution is still abound, however, especially as some mortgage lenders have removed some of the deals available in anticipation of increasing interest rates, giving rise to a possible notion that they are afraid of possible defaults should the rates go to over 5% as is being mooted by some analysts and investment banks.

This morning's upward movers on the FTSE 100 index were mainly some of the raw materials and resource stocks. Anglo American was up 50p to 2647p and Rio Tinto gained 69p to 4767p.

Given the anticipation that interest rates will rise to much higher levels than current ones, it is perhaps to be expected that the fallers on the FTSE 100 index today are house building companies. Persimmon stock dropped by 6p per share to 1258p, and Barratt stock fell 2.2p to 383p,

Rightmove, which is an online portal for real estate agencies to list their properties for rent or sale, saw its stock fall 4.4p to 545p per share.

In congruence with this, some of the major retail banks, NatWest and Lloyds notably, experienced falling share prices.

It's been a raw materials dominated world this year, and today's figures are no different.

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GBP/USD Nosedives and GBP/JPY Gain Bearish Momentum
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GBP/USD started a major decline and traded below 1.1000. GBP/JPY is also diving and there was a clear move below the 155.00 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound started a major decline below the 1.1000 support against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  
• GBP/JPY declined steadily after it failed to clear the 165.00 resistance zone.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 152.50 on the hourly chart.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound started a major decline from the 1.1400 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined below the 1.1200 support to move into a bearish zone.

There was a steady decline below the 1.1100 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded below the 1.0850 support zone. The pair traded as low as 1.0341 on FXOpen and is currently consolidating losses.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.0580 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1364 swing high to 1.0341 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1364 swing high to 1.0341 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase.

There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. An upside break above 1.1220 might start a fresh increase towards 1.1350. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.1450 or even 1.1500.

An immediate support is near the 1.0450. The next major support is near the 1.0350 level. If there is a break below the 1.0350 support, the pair could test the 1.0200 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.0000.

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Watch FXOpen's September 19 - 23 Weekly Digest Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• The British pound hits 37-year low against US dollar
  
• How mobilization in Russia will affect financial markets
  
• US stock market complacency on the bankers' radar
  
• After a long period of hardship, the Japanese yen is back on track
  

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Face Key Hurdles, Downtrend Intact
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AUD/USD is facing a strong resistance near the 0.6660 zone. NZD/USD is also struggling to clear the 0.5900 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6700 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6650 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  
• NZD/USD started an upside correction from the 0.5800 support zone.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.5850 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar failed to stay above the 0.6700 level and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded below the 0.6650 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

There was a clear move below the 0.6620 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as low as 0.6575 on FXOpen and recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 0.6620 level.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart
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The bulls pushed the pair above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6747 swing high to 0.6575 swing low.

However, the bears remained active near the 0.6660 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair failed to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6747 swing high to 0.6575 swing low.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6650 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6650 level.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6660 level. A close above the 0.6660 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6720.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6600 level. The next support could be the 0.6560 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6560 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6500 level.

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