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ma1 Forex analysis and news update

on Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:33 pm
Dollar dips on dot-plot disappointment, BoE in focus

The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates to their highest level since the financial crisis, but Dollar bulls are clearly unamused.
Although on Wednesday, as widely expected, US interest rates were raised by 0.25% to a new band of 1.5%-1.75%, investors were more concerned with the dot-plot and Powell’s press conference. While the policy statement was generally positive and US economic growth was revised higher for 2018 and 2019, a crucial ingredient for hawks was missing. There is a suspicion that the Fed heavily disappointed markets by leaving the dot-plot unchanged for 2018 at a grand total of three hikes. Although there was a small upgrade to the dot-plot forecast for 2019 and 2020, this did little to support King Dollar. Jerome Powell’s noticeable caution during his conference and statement on how there was no clear indication in data of an accelerating inflation, encouraged investors to attack the Dollar further.
Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index was vulnerable to heavy losses after the Federal Reserve turned out to be less hawkish than anticipated. The breakdown below 90.00 could invite a decline towards 89.50 and 89.00, respectively.
Sterling higher ahead of BoE
The main event risk for Sterling today will be the Bank of England monetary policy decision, which is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 0.5%.
Investors will direct their attention towards the language of the statement for any fresh insights about potential timings of a change in UK interest rates this year. A sense of optimism over the Brexit transition deal, coupled with the fact that wage growth accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years, has boosted speculation of a rate hike in May. Sterling could receive a further boost if BoE policymakers mirror these expectations by adopting a hawkish stance and signalling a rate hike in May.
Focusing on the technical perspective, the GBPUSD extended gains on Thursday with prices hitting a fresh one-month high at 1.4170 as of writing. The combination of Dollar weakness following Wednesday’s dot-plot disappointment and Sterling strength has brought GBPUSD bulls back into the game. A breach above 1.4180 could encourage an appreciation towards 1.4260 and 1.4300.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
It’s remarkable how Gold prices soared on Wednesday despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The reason behind Gold’s incredible rebound could be linked to the fact the Federal Reserve was less hawkish than anticipated, which simply weakened the Dollar. With the Dollar tumbling after the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors, Gold found itself back in fashion. The yellow metal could build on the current upside momentum, if political uncertainty in Washington and lingering trade war fears support the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, Gold has broken above the $1330 resistance level. Previous resistance at $1330 could transform into a dynamic support that encourages an incline higher towards $1340. Alternatively, a failure for bulls to keep above $1330 could invite a decline back towards $1314.

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ma1 Re: Forex analysis and news update

on Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:45 pm
What’s next? – GOLD 23.03.18
Oil prices were higher in Asian trading hours on Friday, with market players awaiting the weekly US oil rig count later in the session.
The US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were up 0.93 percent to $64.90 per barrel as of 06:30 GMT. Meanwhile, Brent futures rose 0.74 percent to $69.42 a barrel.

Baker Hughes is expected to release its weekly oil rig count for the US as of 18:00 GMT.
Crude benchmarks settled lower on Thursday as most investors opted to take profits following strong gains this week, although sentiment remained on the green side, opening the doors to a potential short-term upward correction ]forex news

[size=13]Morgan Stanley said US crude inventories are expected to fall later in 2018 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to grow.

“On May 12, the US government will need to decide on the renewal of the waiver of Iranian sanctions,” the bank said.” “Depending on the outcome, this could affect Iranian exports, including possibly taking a few hundred thousand barrels per day off the market.”
Also, the investment bank said crude prices could benefit from Venezuela’s output shortage.
“Any restrictions imposed by the US government on diluent exports from the US or crude imports from Venezuela into the US could lead to a further decline in overall production.”
Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration said that crude stockpiles for the week ended March 16 dropped by 2.6 million barrels vs a forecasted gain of 2.6 million barrels.

#forex analysis

Last edited by gandra on Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:00 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Andrey! Your activity is positive, because we want active users. But I remind you one more time, link building is forbidden.You belong to the :"USERS group"This group has no right to publish links, and advertise other websites or companies.)

ma1 Re: Forex analysis and news update

on Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:35 pm
Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 26 - 30, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
This pair has consolidated so far this month. Price has been ranging between the support line at 1.2250 and the resistance line at 1.2450. This week may see an end to the neutrality of the market, as price would either move above the resistance line at 1.2450 (staying above it); or it would move below the support line at 0.2250 (staying below it). However, a strong movement to the south is much more likely this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs.  
In the short-term, this pair is bullish. Since the support level at 0.9200 was tested in February 16, 2018, price has rallied by over 350 pips, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550. The market has been corrected lower since then, closing below the resistance level at 0.9500. A rally from here would save the bullish bias; while a plunge from here would render it invalid. Nonetheless, the market is more likely to go upwards as a result of a bearish outlook on EURUSD.
The bias on GBPUSD has become bullish again, for price went upwards by 250 pups last week. Even the movement this month has been largely bullish (price has gained a minimum of 400 pips). The distribution territory at 1.4200 was tested, but price closed below the distribution territory at 1.4100 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern the market, which points to a possibility of further bullish journey, as price targets the distribution territories of 1.4150, 1.4200 and 1.4250. This, nevertheless, cannot rule out a possibility of a strong pullback in the market. GBP pairs will experience high volatility this week.    
The pair traded southwards last week, to corroborate the presence of bears. Since January 8, 2018, price has lost 830 pips. It lost 170 pips last week, after testing the supply level at 106.50. Since there is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, price can still reach the demand levels at 104.50, 104.00 and 103.50 before the end of this week. A rally may occur along the way, but it should not be something that would override the extant bearish outlook on the market.
Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained.  Price has been going southward since February 5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50 was tested. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at 129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones at 129.00, 128.50 and 128.00 to be tested this week.
The cross is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. This is a choppy market: An abortive bullish attempt was made last week, but that was rejected as the supply zone at 150.00 was tested. Price came down after that, thus cancelling the short-term effect of the bullish attempt. This week, there may not be any rallies that will cancel the existing bearishness in the market. Price could go further southwards, but it is not expected to go below the demand zone at 145.00, which is the ultimate target for the week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Volatility is good for trading… Volatility can and should be used to a trader’s advantage. It all comes back to understanding and believing in your trading system.” - Jasper Lawler
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Date of Entry : 2018-09-27
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ma1 China says its economy will not collapse knocked out US threats

on Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:33 am
China says its economy will not collapse knocked out US threats

    Urges US to decrease feint things that uncharacteristic bilateral family

    Says that China does not interfere once new countries' internal affairs/elections
    Hopes US doesn't underestimate China's point of view and capabilities
    Hopes trade frictions can be unlimited but has prepared for all possibilities

Strong words out of China there. A handy reminder to markets that once the spotlight instinctive taken occurring by Italy today, there's still the looming US-China trade war in the background.
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ma1 Re: Forex analysis and news update

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