CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week


- As expected, on April 20, the fourth halving occurred on the bitcoin network at block [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]. The reward for mining a block has been reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It's worth reminding that a halving is the event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks in the bitcoin blockchain by half. This event is encoded in the code of the first cryptocurrency and occurs every 210,000 blocks: until the mining of 21 million coins, presumably in 2040, when the cryptocurrency's emission will end. The fourth halving will ensure that about 95% of all bitcoin emission is mined, with approximately 99% of all coins mined by 2033-2036. Following that, the emission will gradually move towards zero.
Economist and author of the cult book "The Bitcoin Standard," Saifedean Ammous, congratulated the crypto community on the halving. "For the first time in history, people have a form of money whose supply increases by less than 1% per year. [...] The harder the money, the slower its supply increases, the better it retains value in the future, and allows for planning and securing the future," he wrote.

- In the days following the halving, there was no increase in volatility. The price of bitcoin slowly and lazily moved upwards, reaching $66,000 at the time of writing this review. It seems that market participants are frozen in anticipation of who will start buying or selling the main cryptocurrency en masse. However, the founder of venture company Pomp Investments, Anthony Pompliano, believes that within 12-18 months, the coin is likely to first undergo a correction and then rise to $100,000 with chances of reaching $150,000-200,000. "At the moment, the probability of a decrease is quite small. [...] I see no reasons for the rate to drop below $50,000. I think we have already crossed this Rubicon," the entrepreneur believes.
Pompliano recommended buying gold to those looking for capital protection from the fall and the first cryptocurrency to those aiming to increase their purchasing power. "After the previous halving, the first cryptocurrency appreciated eightfold despite volatility. Name any other asset that has shown such high returns over a four-year cycle," he stated, revealing that he invested about half of his personal funds in the first cryptocurrency.

- Analysts at QCP Capital believe that bitcoin optimists will need to wait at least two months before assessing the impact of the recent fourth halving. "The spot price has only grown exponentially 50-100 days after each of the previous three halvings. If this pattern repeats, bitcoin bulls still have weeks to build a larger long position," their report states.

- According to Bitfinex experts, the post-halving supply restriction will stabilize the price of the first cryptocurrency and may contribute to its growth. "The decrease in the pace of bitcoin issuance after halving, which will amount to $30-40 million per day, sharply contrasts with the average daily net inflow of $150 million into spot ETFs. This underscores a significant demand and supply imbalance which may contribute to further price growth," the Bitfinex report indicates.

- A sharp increase in transaction fees on the day of the halving gave Euro Pacific Capital president and "gold bug" Peter Schiff another reason to declare the failure of the first cryptocurrency. On April 20, amid the reduction of the block reward, the average size of fees in the network jumped to a record $128.45. Experts largely linked this to the hype associated with the event around the launch of the Runes protocol.
"The cost of completing a transaction now stands at $128, and its processing takes half an hour. This is another reason why bitcoin cannot function as a digital currency. The costs of using it in this capacity are disproportionately high. This is a failure," Schiff declared. (And he was wrong. Shortly thereafter, the rate dropped nearly 73% to $34.86.)
In the comments, users asked the well-known gold advocate how much it would cost to safely deliver a pound of precious metal around the world. An estimate ranging from $800,000 to $2.3 million depending on the method and speed was voiced. "Remind me, how much does it cost to transport a gold bar to the other end of the world in half an hour?" Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, sarcastically remarked about speed. Schiff responded that it didn't matter since people no longer use precious metal as currency.

- Speaking at a pre-election rally in Michigan, Robert Kennedy Jr. announced to the attendees that if he is elected President of the USA, every American will have the opportunity to review any budget item. "I will move the entire US budget to the blockchain, and we will have 300 million observers over it. If someone spends $16,000 on a toilet seat, everyone will find out!" he declared.
The presidential candidate believes that taxpayers have the right to know exactly what their money is being spent on. According to the politician, blockchain and cryptocurrencies should help the USA remain a leader in innovation and maintain the financial freedom of its citizens. Robert Kennedy Jr. had previously supported bitcoin, stating that the first cryptocurrency takes financial control away from the government and the monopolistic banking system.

- The crypto exchange CoinEx has put up for sale the first satoshi mined after the halving. Buyers can place bids in bitcoins on the auction page. A satoshi is one-hundred-millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and the organisers of the auction hoped that collectors would pay several tens of millions of dollars for this "epic" coin. However, at the time of publication, the highest bid is only 2.5 BTC, which is about $165,000, although this price exceeds the value of one ordinary satoshi by 250 million times. The auction will end on April 26. The exchange will notify participants of the results via a message on the website and by email.

- Fidelity Digital Assets, a leading issuer of one of the spot BTC-ETFs, has revised its mid-term forecast for bitcoin from positive to neutral. The reason for the departure from optimistic views is several worrying trends in the crypto market. Fidelity analysts noted the growing interest in selling from long-term bitcoin hodlers. A large percentage of profitable addresses is currently noted in the report. This means that holders may want to lock in profits and start selling BTC. On the other hand, on-chain data also indicate that small investors continue to accumulate the first cryptocurrency. Since the beginning of the year, the number of addresses holding at least $1,000 in BTC has increased by 20% and reached a new all-time high. "This trend may indicate the growing proliferation of bitcoin and its acceptance among 'average' users," Fidelity notes.

- Investments in bitcoin by "new" whales have almost doubled the indicator of "old" major players. These assessments were shared by the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju. The expert attributed to the "whale" addresses not associated with CEX and miners with a balance of over 1000 BTC. The "new" category includes owners of coins "aged" less than 155 days; "old" exceed this term.
Specialists at CryptoQuant examined the dynamics of the 7DMA ratio of the SOPR indicator applied to these categories of investors and made conclusions similar to those of their colleagues from Fidelity. The elevated metric value showed high profitability of "old" hodlers compared to "newcomers," which could lead to the formation of price peaks. Analysis of the current situation also speaks of the need to exercise caution in anticipation of possible corrections and increased volatility.
Recall that earlier, specialists from JPMorgan noted that digital gold is in an overbought state. And CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo warned that if bitcoin falls below $59,000, the market risks entering a bear phase.

- Representatives of the initiative group of cryptocurrency supporters want to convince the Swiss Bank board to add bitcoins to the CB's reserves. The meeting on this issue will take place on April 26, where the concept of supporters of digital gold will be presented. In their opinion, such a step will strengthen the independence and neutrality of the state. Including BTC in its reserves, Switzerland would show the world that it has an independent financial policy from the European Central Bank.
Recall that back in 2022, the initiative group recommended the country's central bank to buy bitcoins for 1 billion Swiss francs (about $1.1 billion) instead of German government bonds, but the regulator ignored this proposal. However, now everything may change. Recently, Switzerland has been providing the most favourable conditions for the development of the cryptocurrency industry, which is why the government of El Salvador even opened its office in the country to jointly develop initiatives related to bitcoin.

- Christian Langlois, also known as Bitcoin Sign Guy, made headlines in 2017 when he displayed a notebook page with the message "Buy Bitcoin" behind Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. At that moment, the FRB Chair was testifying about the state of the US economy. This image instantly spread across the network and became one of the symbols of the emerging crypto industry.
For his act, the 22-year-old intern Langlois was disgracefully expelled from the hearings. But after this episode was broadcast on television, enthusiasts sent seven BTC to his crypto wallet to thank the young man for his bold move. Four years ago, Christian sold 21 copies of the notable sheet at an average price of 0.8 BTC each, thus earning an additional 16.8 BTC. As a result, his total earnings reached 23.8 BTC, which is more than $15 million at the current rate.
And just a few weeks ago, Langlois was offered another 5 bitcoins for the original, but he refused to sell the sheet. Nevertheless, Christian liked the idea of further monetizing the self-created object of "artistic and historical heritage," and he decided to sell it at an auction. The winner's name will be announced late in the evening on April 24 at the New York snack bar Pubkey, and the young man plans to direct the proceeds to finance his startup, Tirrel Corp. At the time of writing the review, the sheet is offered for $140,000, but the auction is not yet over.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Since 8 April, bitcoin's price has been falling, attempting to break through the support level around $61,500. The weekly decline in BTC is the largest in the last eight months, and in dollar terms, it's the largest since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. Following bitcoin, other digital assets have also plummeted, with many major altcoins losing about a third of their value.

– Analysts at CryptoQuant believe this crash is necessary to reset unrealized trader profits to zero – typically a signal of a market bottom in bullish markets. However, Willy Woo, analyst and co-founder of venture firm CMCC Crest, warns that if bitcoin's price falls below the short-term holders' support level at $58,900, the market risks entering a bear phase.
Woo also noted that the market structure has not changed since March, but April is "variable in both directions." The halving will be another catalyst for volatility. He suggested that the current bearish sentiments are a good bullish sign and that the next major level for liquidating short positions will be between $71,000 and $75,000. 
According to Woo, "the longer digital gold consolidates around the ATH, the more coins transition from one investor to another, strengthening their price and creating massive long-term support." Given the bitcoin demand and supply charts, it is only a matter of time before "the ongoing accumulation during this consolidation pushes us beyond the historical maximum," believes the CMCC Crest co-founder. 

– RektCapital, a well-known trader, emphasized that before the halving, the bitcoin price always retreated. He considers this a normal trend. "There's no reason for panic as such a drop has occurred in all cycles. Don't think that this time is different," the expert stressed.

– James Van Straten, an analyst at CryptoSlate, has noted that he studied the situation surrounding long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) bitcoin holders. In his view, the growth in LTH metrics caused pressure from sellers who disposed of 700,000 BTC coins over four months, not counting GBTC Grayscale stock sellers. The researcher noted that the trend began to change in recent days as short-term holders (STH) actively started purchasing the digital asset, already beginning to outweigh the sellers' pressure.

– Several specialists believe the bitcoin price drop on 13-13 April was exacerbated by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and an Iranian attack on Israel. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, speculated that bitcoin could reach a new historical maximum if the conflict in this region subsides. He urged world leaders to take control of the situation to prevent exacerbating the fall in prices of all financial assets, including cryptocurrency.

– Michael Saylor, President of MicroStrategy, forecasts bitcoin's price rise despite geopolitical tensions. Saylor succinctly stated that "chaos will benefit bitcoin." His logic is sound since cryptocurrency was created in response to the economic crisis that began in 2008. Consequently, many investors might view bitcoin as an alternative capital preservation medium during upheavals. (It is worth noting that with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet, MicroStrategy is the largest public company holder of bitcoins. Naturally, Saylor is directly interested in the price increase of this asset). 

– OpenAI's artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, believes that if the crisis between Israel and Iran intensifies, the main cryptocurrency's price will only slightly drop to about $60,000. However, this will be a short-term reaction. More significantly, assets like stocks will suffer. Bitcoin is likely to quickly regain its position. ChatGPT considers it likely that following the initial fall, there will be a bullish rally as investors seek a safe haven. Thanks to this, "digital gold" will jump to $75,000, setting a new historical maximum. 
Should the escalation of conflict in the Middle East become protracted and lead to a series of smaller conflicts, the volatility range of bitcoin, according to ChatGPT, will expand – following an initial drop to $55,000, there could be a rapid rise to $80,000.

– It is noteworthy that BTC/USD fall coincided with a notable strengthening of the American dollar. This is linked not only to the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions but also to the market's postponed expectations regarding the start date for easing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Following the publication of US inflation data on 10 April, market participants concluded that the first interest rate cut would not occur in June but in September. The Dollar Index (DXY) surged, reaching a peak of 106.30. Naturally, the strengthening of one asset in the currency pair caused the weakening of the other.       
 
– Miners are preparing for the "hunt" for the first epic satoshi post-halving on 20 April. The miner who secures this satoshi could earn a substantial amount as the estimated value of this "collectible" digital coin could be several million dollars. Approximately two years ago, Casey Rodarmor, creator of the Ordinals protocol on the bitcoin blockchain, developed a rarity classification system for individual sats. With the launch of "inscriptions," it became possible to number and sell bitcoin fractions similarly to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Rodarmor's scale ranges from the first in each block "unusual" satoshi to the "mythic" - the very first in blockchain history. An "epic" sat, mined in the first block after each halving, holds one of the highest rarity ratings. Collectors might value such an asset at even $50 million. (Remember, a satoshi is one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (0.00000001), and with the current BTC price of $65,000, the price of a regular, non-collectible sat is merely $0.00065).

– Arkham Intelligence has revealed the cryptocurrency balances of various countries. According to its data, the United States is the largest bitcoin whale among governments, currently holding 212,847 BTC valued at approximately $14.9 billion. Since the start of 2023, the US government has added at least 5,000 BTC to its wallets. Additionally, the country possesses reserves of ETH, USDC, USDT, DAI, and other assets totalling about $200 million. The United Kingdom ranks second with a balance of 61,245 BTC worth $4.5 billion, followed by Germany with 49,858 BTC valued at $3.5 billion. El Salvador, where bitcoin has been a legal payment method since 2021, significantly lags behind other jurisdictions, with only 5,717 BTC worth $405 million stored in government wallets. 
Notably, China, which ranks second according to another firm - Bitcointreasuries, with 190,000 BTC, is absent from the Arkham Intelligence ranking. 

– Nearly one in five voters in the US owns crypto assets, making this investor class a significant factor influencing the outcome of the 2024 presidential race, as per a report from blockchain company Galaxy Digital. "As we approach November 2024, investors are increasingly aware of the implications of the elections for the markets. The crypto industry here may play a more significant role than ever," stated the Galaxy Digital report. The company highlighted that crypto investors are primarily concerned about the government's approach to industry regulation. 
According to data from experts at Paradigm, 19% of US voters own crypto assets, with 11 million people having crypto portfolios exceeding $1,000. Furthermore, the Paradigm study revealed that 48% of digital asset holders in the US would vote for Donald Trump, while only 39% would prefer Joe Biden.

– According to Arkham, the five largest identified crypto whales collectively own digital assets worth about $3.5 billion. However, two of them, Rain Lohmus of Estonia's LHV Bank and former Ripple CTO Stefan Thomas, cannot access their assets due to lost passwords to their crypto wallets. Lohmus reported losing the key to a wallet containing 250,000 ETH earned during a 2014 ICO, now valued at $765 million. Although the founder of the Estonian bank has made no effort to regain access to the funds, he recently expressed willingness to consider proposals from experts who could help him recover his lost wealth. Stefan Thomas received 7,002 BTC in 2011 as payment for a tutorial video he created. But a few months later, he lost access to the funds after forgetting the password to his IronKey hard drive that stored his private keys. In October 2023, cryptocurrency security experts from Unciphered claimed they could bypass IronKey and help Thomas regain access to his bitcoins, now valued at $440 million. However, he declined their offer and enlisted two other teams, which have yet to succeed.

– The Norwegian government is determined to end cryptocurrency mining in the country. According to officials, the goal is to cut off undesirable activities associated with mining, an unregulated industry that also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. "We need socially beneficial projects necessary for infrastructure," explained the Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Terje Aasland.

– CryptoQuant analysts estimate that bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges will last only a few months. Total available exchange reserves have decreased by more than 800,000 BTC and have reached the lowest value in the history of their two-year observations. As of 16 April, they amount to about 2 million BTC. Assuming the daily inflow of bitcoins into spot BTC-ETFs is about $500 million, which at current prices is equivalent to approximately 8,025 coins, it will take just nine months to completely exhaust these reserves. 
Results from the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which shows the ratio of an asset's use to its reserves, indicate: after the halving, bitcoin's S2F coefficient will reach 112 points, nearly twice that of gold (60 points). Thus, by January 2025, bitcoin will become a more scarce commodity than the most popular precious metal.

– Several days ago, CEO of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, stated that both the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market are on the brink of upheavals and significant price corrections. Renowned economist and author Robert Kiyosaki confirmed the forecast by ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood and also expects bitcoin's growth to $2.3 million by 2030.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, the price of bitcoin needs to exceed $80,000 post-halving to remain profitable for miners. This significant event is scheduled for April 20, 2024. As a result, miners’ block rewards will be halved, while the costs to mine the same amount of coins will conversely increase.
Historically, the price of bitcoin tends to rise after a halving. In 2012, the asset appreciated by nearly 9000% to $1162. In 2016, the cryptocurrency price soared by approximately 4200% to $19800. Following the last halving in May 2020, BTC's value increased by 683% to $69000, while mining costs rose to $30000. Currently, the average cost to mine 1 BTC is $49900, with the asset trading close to $70000. Post-April 20, mining expenses will exceed $80000, hence the asset needs to trade above this level for miners to continue making a profit. However, according to some experts, bitcoin's growth does not start immediately. The industry must endure a difficult period, and small mining companies and individual miners face a wave of bankruptcies.

– In the medium term, halving acts as a bullish catalyst for the crypto market. However, prices may fall both before and after the event, believes Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX. “The narrative that halving block rewards positively impacts cryptocurrency prices has become entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually happens,” stated the expert.
He noted that the market would face a reduction in dollar liquidity in the latter half of April, driven by the tax payment season, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the strengthening of the US Treasury's balance sheet. This factor will be an additional incentive for a "furious sell-off of cryptocurrencies," Hayes believes. "Can the market defy my bearish predispositions and continue to grow? I hope it can. Having been involved in cryptocurrency for a long time, I welcome being proven wrong."
In May-June, the situation should improve: the Fed will begin to ease its monetary policy and the Treasury is likely to inject an additional $1 trillion into the system, which will pump the markets, added Hayes. “The set of tricks from the regulators has only reinforced my decision to refrain from trading bitcoin until early May. Missing a few percentage points of profit but definitely avoiding losses for my portfolio is an acceptable outcome,” he declared.

– Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, suggested that the market capitalization of the crypto industry might double by the end of this year, surpassing $5 trillion. In an interview with CNBC, he stated he is "very optimistic" about macroeconomic trends in the crypto industry, such as the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs (ETFs). According to Garlinghouse, BTC-ETFs have attracted real institutional investments into the industry for the first time. Another macro factor that could lead to market capitalization growth, he noted, is the halving. The Ripple head also expects more clarity in regulation following the US presidential elections. "The United States remains the world’s largest economy and, unfortunately, one of the most hostile markets for cryptocurrencies," Garlinghouse remarked.

– Lucas Kiely, CIO of the financial platform Yield App, stated that the upcoming halving should not be expected to cause a sevenfold increase in bitcoin's price. According to Kiely, during the previous three cycles, halving the miners' rewards heralded a huge increase in volatility levels. After the halving, BTC's price dropped by 30-40% but then soared to unprecedented heights within 480 days. However, this year, he believes, the "cryptocurrency flight to the Moon" will not occur.
Lucas attributes the decrease in volatility to two factors: 1. an increase in the number of bitcoins held by hodlers owning more than 70% of the issued coins, and 2. the creation of BTC-ETFs, whose issuers withdraw an average of 10,000 BTC coins worth about $700 million from circulation daily. As a result, bitcoin is becoming a traditional asset, less risky but also less promising in terms of huge profits. Kiely believes that this factor makes the coin more attractive to institutional investors and older people who prefer to invest in reliable assets and avoid gambling.

– Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge, claimed that bitcoin could grow 2.5 times in this cycle but will continue to grow in the longer term. "I'm simply saying that bitcoin's market capitalization could reach half that of gold, which means it could increase six or even eight times from its current figures." Note that bitcoin's current market capitalization stands at $1.35 trillion, while gold is valued at $15.8 trillion. Thus, if BTC reaches half of gold’s capitalization, its price will approximately be $400,000 per coin. Scaramucci described the spot BTC-ETFs launched in January as "selling machines." In the three months since their inception, the capitalization of these 10 ETFs (excluding the Grayscale fund) has exceeded $12 billion. According to the CEO of Skybridge, they will continue to boost demand for the leading cryptocurrency from both retail and institutional investors.

– Two malicious extensions for Google Chrome enabled the theft of $800,000 in cryptocurrency from the wallets of a trader known as Sell When Over, he informed his followers on the social network X. The trader suspected that the extensions named "Sync test BETA (colourful)" and "Simple Game" contained keyloggers, which are tools cybercriminals use to record every keystroke of the victim's computer, thus gaining access to sensitive information.
Sell When Over reported that the issue arose after Google Chrome released an update in March. Following a forced reboot, he discovered that all his extensions were disabled, and their tabs deleted. He had to reinstall the applications and re-enter his data, including seed phrases for access to his crypto wallets. It was after this that he lost $800,000. Initially, the trader was not sure that the malicious extensions were to blame. However, a subsequent investigation confirmed that keyloggers were indeed the culprit.

– Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, admitted in a recent interview that he had invested a significant portion of his capital in bitcoins and altcoins. He highlighted that while housing prices in the US had doubled over the last 12 years, wages had not kept pace. "Cryptocurrency has become a means for many people to lead a normal life," he emphasized, expressing confidence that bitcoin should be a part of every portfolio.
Regarding Ethereum and Solana, the businessman believes the value of their ecosystems will depend on their ability to attract new users. Additionally, Novogratz pointed out the great potential of Dogecoin and Cardano and mentioned that blockchain-based games are becoming increasingly popular.

– In a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank, 15% of respondents said that bitcoin would trade above $40,000 but below $75,000 this year. A third of respondents were confident that the price of bitcoin would fall below $20,000 at the beginning of next year. Meanwhile, 38% believed that the primary cryptocurrency would cease to exist in the market altogether. About 1% of respondents called bitcoin a complete misunderstanding and speculation.
Despite such survey results, Deutsche Bank remains convinced that the price of bitcoin will continue to rise. The market is in a state of anticipation for the upcoming halving, and investments in spot bitcoin ETFs continue to increase from major financial institutions. 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– FTX exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) regrets the actions that led him to a 25-year prison sentence. He revealed this in an interview with ABC News. "It's a major part of what I think about every day," added the former businessman, now inmate. According to him, FTX's insolvency was the result of several "bad decisions" he made in 2022.
SBF noted that he "heard and saw the desperation and disappointment from thousands of clients" who "deserve full compensation at current prices." In Bankman-Fried's view, had he or another FTX employee remained as CEO, clients would "have long been refunded." SBF also criticized the decision not to relaunch the exchange.
FTX's former CEO's lawyers plan to appeal based on some testimonies at the trial that "significantly distorted what actually happened."

– The rise in bitcoin's value after the halving will become "parabolic" and allow its price to reach $150,000 by year's end. Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, gave this forecast on CNBC. "Interest in the asset will increase after the halving – many will enter into FOMO mode. We should see a doubling of the fair value. In the current cycle, it's ~$75,000, with adjustments downwards. […] Thus, we get $150,000," Yusko shared his calculations. He also believes that "historically, about nine months after the event, a price peak will form before the next bear market."
The top manager called the first cryptocurrency a "dominant token" and the "best form of gold." Regarding long-term prospects, the expert stated that bitcoin "could easily" increase tenfold over the next decade. Separately, Yusko noted that his hedge fund likes Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, though they fall short of the "king bitcoin."

– "Rich Dad Poor Dad" best-selling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki once again advised not to save "fake fiat dollars" but to buy gold, silver, or bitcoin. He believes the US has gone bankrupt by printing $1 trillion every 90 days just to pay bills. "The entire US dollar is American debt. our political, banking, and financial leaders. They are either incompetent, corrupt, or both. Our leaders have no idea how to control the growing national debt and the US bond market, as well as the excessively inflated stock market," Kiyosaki stated.
However, the entrepreneur made an unexpected statement. According to him, bitcoin could crash to zero as it's not excluded that the first cryptocurrency is the same kind of fraud or Ponzi scheme as the US dollar, euro, yen, or any other "fake" fiat currency.

– "Gold bug" and staunch bitcoin opponent Peter Schiff suggested that bitcoin's popularity among young people is mainly due to "ignorance and lack of experience." The third factor is that during the short lifespan of young people, bitcoin has increased in price much more than gold. But by the time they gain the wisdom that comes with age, bitcoin will collapse. According to the economist, bitcoin's success depends exclusively on the activity of its buyers, making it a significantly riskier investment compared to tangible assets such as real estate or gold.

– CoinChapter reported that Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk declared meme coins Dogecoin (DOGE) the official currency of the colony to be established on Mars. "The brave colonists who will head to the Red Planet will be rough and merciless people. They will not carry gold bars with them. They will need a fast and fun currency that embodies the spirit of space travel. Dogecoin meets all these criteria," Musk stated.
It's important to note that the information above was released on April 1st – April Fool's Day or All Fools' Day. Therefore, it's possible that the entrepreneur was just joking with his fans by assigning DOGE the status of Martian currency.

– Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mintz lamented that in 2023, for the first time in a decade, the number of crypto ATMs installed worldwide significantly decreased. In his opinion, this was related to the bearish trend in the crypto market, which was exacerbated by the collapse of the FTX exchange and the bankruptcy of several other companies. However, in 2024, the situation began to improve: according to CoinATMRadar, 1,469 new crypto ATMs were installed in just the first three months of 2024. In contrast, about 3,000 devices were closed during the same period in 2023.

– Researchers at PeckShield published a new report on hacks in the cryptocurrency space. They noted that in March 2024, there were numerous incidents, with at least one hacking attack occurring every day. As a result, cybercriminals stole more than $187 million this month, of which about $100 million was recovered.

– We have previously told the story of one of the first crypto investors, an IT specialist named James Howells from Newport (Wales, UK). Back in 2013, James's girlfriend decided to clean the house. Into the trash went all the items she deemed unnecessary. Among the trash that was sent to the dump was a hard drive containing the data for a crypto wallet with 8000 BTC.
Since then, Howells has not lost hope of retrieving what was lost. He narrowed his search to a section of the city dump where, under grassy hills, about 100,000 tonnes of trash lie. Howells was ready to dig through this entire mountain of waste to find the disk. However, local authorities rejected his request due to environmental preservation concerns. Now, to deter numerous "treasure hunters," a fence has been erected around the dump, and round-the-clock security with video cameras has been organized, because at the current rate, this small hard drive is worth about $520 million.

– Binance co-founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) ranked 50th in Forbes' new billionaire ranking, with a net worth of $33 billion. Bloomberg's own index attributes Zhao with assets amounting to even more – $45.1 billion. The Forbes list also includes other representatives of the crypto industry. Thus, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong found himself in 180th place with $11.2 billion. In total, the publication counted 17 entrepreneurs connected with cryptocurrencies with a net worth of over one billion dollars.

– The outflow of institutional capital from the crypto sphere in mid-March triggered a drop in bitcoin and other digital currencies. However, Coinshares believes that the vast majority of investment companies and hedge funds are not interested in a decline in BTC quotes. The whales will try not to allow a collapse below $60,000. As a result, just last week, large investors directed $862 million into digital asset-oriented instruments.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Roger Ver, introducing his new book "The Hijacking of Bitcoin: The Hidden Story of BTC," announced that bitcoin has been captured by a group of insiders. According to this experienced investor, this development has altered the project's philosophy. Jeffrey Tucker, an economist, and the founder of the Brownstone Institute, who contributed to the book, lamented that the story it tells is tragic because the opportunity to change the world with bitcoin was stolen. Bitcoin could have liberated society, but it failed to do so.
Previously, Roger Ver had stated that he considers Ethereum more valuable, despite its lower market capitalisation, because the ETH project does much more for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies than bitcoin.

– According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of the first cryptocurrency is owned by various organisations, including government and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. Together, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. Around 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead the cryptocurrency market in terms of bitcoin volume, holding 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively.
Among public companies, MicroStrategy has emerged as the largest holder of bitcoins, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, followed by Tesla and Coinbase Global in third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively.
In the realm of private companies, according to available information, Block.one leads in ownership levels with 164,000 BTC. Following it is the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is occupied by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.
In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among states, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.
Adding these figures to the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined BTC is unavailable to other private investors. This, to some extent, confirms the conclusion made by Roger Ver. 

– Around 48% of voters who own digital assets plan to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, according to a survey by Paradigm. Another 38% prefer the current President, Joe Biden, while 13% are undecided about their candidate choice. Additionally, 69% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current state of the country's financial system. 49% of those surveyed stated they do not trust either of the U.S. parties regarding digital asset issues.
The survey data indicates that 19% of registered American voters own digital assets, 7% of respondents own cryptocurrencies valued at over $1,000, and 1% own more than $10,000 worth of cryptocurrencies.

– A British court has ruled that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto. The legal proceedings initiated by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA) against Wright began in 2021. The organisation filed a lawsuit against the businessman to prevent him from claiming intellectual property rights to bitcoin technology. The court has now delivered its verdict: "Firstly, Dr. Wright is not the author of the bitcoin white paper. Secondly, Wright is not the individual who acted under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto from 2008 to 2011. Thirdly, he is not the person who created the bitcoin system. And fourthly, Wright is not the author of the original versions of the first cryptocurrency's software."
Furthermore, the court has suspended two other cases involving Wright – lawsuits against Coinbase and Block. It is possible that a restraining order will be issued to prevent Wright from ever claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, though a final decision on this matter has yet to be made. 

– India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, has taken a firm stance on bitcoin and other crypto-assets, stating that they cannot be considered real money. According to her, cryptocurrencies are primarily used for trading, speculation, and profit-making. They do not function as traditional currencies issued by central banks and thus thrive solely due to market manipulations.
Ms. Sitharaman highlighted that cryptocurrencies are still unregulated in India, and this issue has been raised at the G20 forum. The minister believes it is crucial for G20 member countries to establish a unified international regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which would help manage their risks.

– The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, with assets of approximately $1.5 trillion, will consider portfolio diversification options, including the inclusion of the leading cryptocurrency. This initiative is part of an exploration of innovative investment strategies and is a response to economic and social changes as well as rapid technological developments.
Currently, the GPIF invests in traditional assets such as domestic and foreign stocks and bonds, as well as alternative instruments like real estate.

– Analysts at Standard Chartered have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with Ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same date. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively.
The change in expectations is driven by the excitement around spot bitcoin ETFs and the sharp increase in the asset's price since January. The analysts justified their forecast based on the dynamics of gold following the approval of ETFs and the optimization of the ratio of the precious metal to its digital counterpart at 80% to 20%.
According to Standard Chartered experts, if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion, bitcoin could increase in value even more – up to $250,000. Actions by sovereign wealth funds could also accelerate growth rates. "We see a growing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," the analysts say.

– Dan Tapiero, CEO of the investment company 10T Holdings, has also mentioned a figure of $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential for a threefold increase from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Moreover, from the lows of the bear market to the peak of 2021, digital gold increased in value by 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 benchmark as a positive scenario.
"It's hard to set specific points and times in such matters. I think we will reach this [zone] within the next 18-24 months, maybe even sooner," Tapiero believes. "A reduction in supply during a rapid increase in demand for ETFs, along with the halving, indicates a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull everything else up with it."
The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" of approval for exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. However, he found it difficult to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

– After reaching a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14th, bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, losing about 13%. Some experts do not rule out further temporary decreases. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is actually low compared to previous cycles, mainly due to the options market. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the bottom line is at $50,000, and the coin's price will never fall below it unless a dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is mainly supported by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policies of the US Federal Reserve. JPMorgan analysts have more cautious feelings towards BTC, stating that the halving is unlikely to be a bullish catalyst for the coin. According to their forecast, bitcoin could fall by 33% after this event.

– The artificial intelligence of OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach $100,000 on the eve of the halving, acknowledged this target as plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the current correction in no way affects the growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the probability of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

– BeInCrypto's editorial team discovered the origin of rumours claiming Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto. It appears that Daniel Peña, also known as the "Trillion Dollar Man," an American businessman and founder of Quantum Leap Advantage, initiated them. His first statements linking the Russian President to cryptocurrency date back to 2019. Since then, the entrepreneur has repeatedly supported his theory. Peña believes that Putin benefits from the creation of bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency could undermine the position of the US dollar in the financial market and destabilize the American economy. Despite the lack of evidence for these claims, this theory has taken root and has become a meme over the years.
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– In a CNBC interview, former US President and Republican Party leader Donald Trump highlighted the importance of the American national currency and compared moving away from the dollar standard to a defeat. At the same time, he stated that he does not plan to obstruct the use of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies if he wins the election in November. "If you think about it, it's an additional form of currency," Trump remarked. "Bitcoin is widely used, and I'm not sure I would want to give it up right now," the politician added. However, when asked by the interviewer if he himself invests in cryptocurrency, the former (and possibly future) president responded negatively.

– Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase and a general partner at a16z, has declared we are in the phase of treasury plunder amidst an empire's collapse. Bitcoin, he asserts, is the only available salvation from inflation and the potential confiscation of assets in the US, which could result from the unsustainable trajectory of government spending. According to his calculations, the US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, having increased by 25% since 2020, and continues to grow by $1 trillion every 90 days. The US government spends $10 billion more daily than it receives. Based on this, Srinivasan did not rule out that, as we approach a "financial reckoning" for such behaviour, the "insatiable state" might consider the confiscation of private assets.
"Private property will not be protected by the state in a bankrupt blue (Democratic) America. Any blockchain under Washington's control is vulnerable. Fortunately, we have digital gold that is independent of the state and cannot be confiscated. Bitcoin maximalism will triumph. It will save us from state budgeting," believes the former CTO of Coinbase. Although he refrained from specifying when the "reckoning" would occur, he reminded that the inevitability of such a scenario had previously been mentioned by Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, Larry Fink, and Stanley Druckenmiller. 

– Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has urged the US Federal Reserve to postpone cutting interest rates until June and shared his views on the first cryptocurrency, as reported by CNBC citing the businessman's speech at the Australian Financial Review summit. "I don't know what bitcoin is for, but just as with the right to smoke a cigarette, I'll support your right to buy bitcoin. Personally, however, I would never buy it," he stated, adding that the use of digital assets is often associated with illegal activities, including human trafficking, fraud, and terrorism.

– William Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, has attributed bitcoin mining as one of the causes for inflation increase and the fall of the US dollar. "The rise in bitcoin prices leads to an increase in mining and energy consumption, raising the latter's cost, thus causing inflation to rise and the dollar to decline. This stimulates demand for bitcoin, its mining, and energy consumption. The cycle continues, bitcoin goes into infinity, energy prices skyrocket, and the economy collapses," the billionaire described his scenario, adding that this relationship "works in reverse as well."
"Wondering if I should buy bitcoin in such a situation?" Ackman pondered, to which another billionaire, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, replied, "You should buy some bitcoin, but not for the reasons mentioned above. Most bitcoin miners actually help to reduce the cost of electricity for other consumers, not the other way around. Let me know if you want to discuss this issue one-on-one," he wrote.

– Michael Saylor believes that bitcoin will "eat" gold in the future, becoming a more valuable asset because it possesses all the advantages of gold while being free from its disadvantages. Saylor pointed out that precious metal cannot be moved quickly, whereas bitcoin can be transferred to a new owner instantly.
The appearance of the first cryptocurrency in various investment products is a sign of the asset's future dominance, according to the MicroStrategy co-founder. The digital asset will also begin to take market share from other risky investment products, with Saylor naming the S&P 500 ETF fund as one of the potential "victims."
It is noteworthy that bitcoin, having risen above $72,000 per coin, surpassed silver in market capitalization on March 11, 2024. The first cryptocurrency moved to the eighth position in the ranking of the largest assets by this indicator, overcoming the $1.4 trillion mark.

– Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Research at his company, evaluated the US budget for 2025 proposed by Joe Biden's team. The researcher's conclusion is that the Democrats anticipate BTC reaching $250,000 within a decade: by 2034-2035. This is inferred from the taxes laid out by the White House in the budget. However, the expert clarified that there are no direct indications of this price in the budget. Conclusions are drawn based on the assessment of potential profits from taxes and the regulation of the cryptocurrency market.
Rochard draws another conclusion from the White House documents. According to his analysis, the mining industry in the US could experience exponential growth. This could be due to the active development of the US market and an excess of electrical energy, leading to a tenfold increase in this industry.

– Following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US earlier this year, demand for the flagship crypto asset significantly exceeded the daily supply of bitcoin mined by miners, and the halving scheduled for the third decade of April will only intensify this imbalance. As a result, many analysts believe that the price of bitcoin is in the early stages of a super-cycle, fuelled by institutional investors and issues in the global macroeconomy.
At the time of writing this overview, the maximum price of bitcoin was recorded at $73,556. Analysts at Matrixport are optimistic about the coin's global future. However, according to them, a risk-reward analysis suggests that the coin's quotes may soon adjust. "This bull market still has legs," Matrixport believes, "but the divergence between the decreasing RSI and high BTC prices may signal that bitcoin needs to consolidate before it can start increasing in price again."
Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that a market retracement of 20-30% is quite possible in the near future. He also noted that he expects a lot from altcoins, which have not yet reached record levels.

– Raoul Pal, the founder of investment firm Real Vision, has forecasted the targets BTC, ETH, and SOL could reach in the near future. He suggested that the target mark for bitcoin in the near term is $250,000 per coin. Moreover, the first cryptocurrency might exceed this projected level due to the high demand for spot bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming April halving is also expected to boost demand for this cryptocurrency.
Raoul Pal is also bullish on Ethereum, predicting its value could rise to between $17,000 and $20,000, thanks to the utility of smart contracts. Currently, ETH is trading around $4,000, but unlike bitcoin, it has yet to surpass its record: in November 2021, Ethereum reached a level of $4,856. The Real Vision founder believes that the altcoin's growth could be influenced by its strong correlation with bitcoin, anticipation of the launch of spot ETH ETFs, and the Dencun update.
Pal forecasts that the price of Solana could range from $700 to $1,000, as the blockchain's high performance will increase demand for this coin. In early November 2021, SOL reached its peak at $260, indicating the coin still has plenty of growth potential.

– Bernstein analysts believe that shares of mining companies remain the best proxy investments in bitcoin as the cryptocurrency moves towards a target mark of $150,000. In a note to clients, they point out that historically, miners' stock prices have almost always outperformed bitcoin in terms of growth rate during a bull market. As we are in the middle of the current cycle, every "weakness window" for miners of digital gold is, in experts' opinion, an opportunity to buy their shares.
Bernstein asserts that the segment is currently dominated by retail investors, while institutional investors mostly avoid "bitcoin-proxy" investments due to their ongoing scepticism towards cryptocurrencies. However, as the asset grows to new highs, analysts expect this category of investors' interest in miners' stocks to awaken, making them the primary beneficiaries of capital inflow. 
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Bitcoin appreciated by about 10% in less than a day on March 4, reaching a new all-time high of $69,016. The previous record was $68,917, set on November 10, 2021. The market capitalisation of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $1.3 trillion. Most of the top 10 crypto assets also saw a 10-30% increase in value over the week. 

– The surge in bitcoin on March 4 is reportedly due to purchases by a certain billionaire from Qatar, who flew to Madeira on his private jet for the three-day Bitcoin Atlantis conference. Robert Rodin, CEO of Keychainx, mentioned seeing something at Madeira airport that "could change bitcoin forever." Meanwhile, BTC maximalist Max Keiser shared a video in which El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele greets the Emir of Qatar with the words "It's happening!"
This has sparked discussions about Qatar adding bitcoin to its balance sheet. The validity of such claims remains unproven, but social media is rife with speculation on the matter. It's worth noting that rumours have been circulating for several months about one or two sovereign wealth funds or investment companies from the Middle East secretly buying up bitcoin. There's also the mysterious Mr. 100BTC, who, according to rumours, has been consistently buying 100 bitcoins every day since November 2022. This individual has never emerged from the shadows, but if he does indeed exist, he would have amassed about 60,000 coins to date.

– "We have entered the era of the bitcoin gold rush. It started in January 2024 and will last approximately until November 2034," declared Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, speaking at Bitcoin Atlantis. According to his calculations, by that time miners will have extracted 99% of all coins, marking the beginning of the "growth phase." (Currently, 93.5% have already been mined, according to BitcoinTreasuries data).
Saylor believes that at present, only 10-20% of asset managers are interested in spot BTC-ETFs. In the future, as existing barriers are removed, this figure is expected to approach 100%. "When they [the managers] can buy BTC through a bank, a platform, or a prime broker, they'll spend $50 million in an hour," he stated. The MicroStrategy founder is also confident that "the day will come when bitcoin surpasses gold and will be traded more than the S&P 500 ETFs."

– Since its network launch in 2009, bitcoin has repeatedly proven its viability. Over the years, the cryptocurrency has managed to surpass many traditional currencies. Currently, BTC has outperformed the Russian rouble in market capitalisation and occupies the fourteenth position in the overall ranking of the world's largest currencies. Its nearest competitor is the Swiss franc. (Following the news that bitcoin surpassed the rouble, the internet was flooded with jokes suggesting that Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto).
In the overall ranking of the most capitalised assets, which includes precious metals and companies, bitcoin has taken the tenth place. It surpassed Berkshire Hathaway, the company of well-known cryptocurrency critic billionaire Warren Buffett, but fell short of Meta. The top three positions are currently held by gold, Microsoft, and Apple. Additionally, bitcoin's market capitalisation ($1.3 trillion) has reached the GDP levels of many countries. For instance, the Gross Domestic Product of Saudi Arabia is $1.108 trillion, and Indonesia's is $1.319 trillion.
Following bitcoin, Ethereum is positioned at twenty-eighth in the overall ranking of the most capitalised currencies. ETH's result was better than that of the Chilean peso but worse than the Turkish lira.

– Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of Skybridge and former White House Communications Director, asserts that US President Joe Biden has a positive impact on cryptocurrency and the financial markets at large. To support his statement, Scaramucci cited Biden's legislative proposals related to digital assets.
According to the Skybridge chief, the current president's commitment to the rule of law will expedite the establishment of regulations for the crypto industry. "While these rules may not please everyone," Scaramucci writes, "having clear guiding principles will provide a solid foundation for legal arguments in court. [Thanks to this,] we will continue to win against the Biden administration in the United States judicial system."

– Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a contender in the US presidential race, admitted last year that he bought bitcoins for his children. The politician believes that BTC is the best alternative to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) because it offers financial freedom to people.
In a recent interview with CNBC, Robert Kennedy reiterated his view of BTC as the superior currency, emphasizing that it allows Americans to transfer funds anywhere with minimal costs and complete anonymity. "Banks are trying to destroy digital currency and hinder the development of its infrastructure. However, the process of integrating cryptocurrency cannot be stopped anymore, and the repressive measures of the authorities against this instrument only increase its popularity," stated the presidential candidate.

– According to Professor of Physics Giovanni Santostasi, bitcoin could appreciate 64 times in the next 15 years, reaching $10.63 million. This forecast is based on a power-law model.
A power-law relationship is a mathematical connection between two quantities where a relative change in one quantity leads to a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the initial values of these quantities. The relationship between one quantity and another represents a power function. This law is observable in a wide range of natural phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of stock market changes.
Santostasi stated that this model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price change of the first cryptocurrency over long periods. However, over shorter spans, which the media primarily focuses on, the quotations behave chaotically.
According to the professor, unlike the well-known S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model by the analyst known as PlanB, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential. In other words, the price of bitcoin is not expected to rise continuously over time. According to Santostasi's calculations, the digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026, then drop to $60,000, and after that, it will continue its wavy growth to $10.63 million.

– Experts at JPMorgan suggest that the upcoming bitcoin halving in April could trigger a significant drop in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The algorithmically mandated reduction of the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC will decrease mining profitability. Based on this, economists at JPMorgan, led by senior analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the price will fall to $42,000 after the halving.
"The cost of mining bitcoin empirically acts as a price floor," their report states. "Currently, the cost of mining is $26,500. After the halving, this figure will be $42,000." "This is also the level towards which we believe the price will gravitate once the post-halving euphoria subsides in April," JPMorgan notes.
The experts also considered the possibility of a 20% drop in the bitcoin network's hash rate, primarily due to the mass disconnection of low-efficiency equipment. Consequently, the capacity may concentrate among large cryptocurrency miners who have taken measures to reduce costs and maintain efficiency. "There might also be some horizontal integration through mergers and acquisitions among miners in different regions to take advantage of synergies in their business," concluded the specialists.

– Trader Gareth Soloway has identified a critical factor that could propel bitcoin's price to another historical high of $100,000. The expert pointed to a dilemma in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy management amidst approximately 3% inflation. He emphasized that the institution's reluctance to aggressively cut rates could sustain high inflation, potentially contributing to bitcoin's upward trend. "If we see an increase in liquidity (which is bound to happen), then bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in 2024," writes Soloway. On the way to the mentioned round figure, like the JPMorgan experts, the trader does not exclude a short-term bearish correction. However, in his opinion, the upcoming halving in itself does not guarantee the digital gold's rise to the specified amount.

– Researchers from the University of Texas in the USA have discovered that over four years, cryptocurrency scammers utilizing the "pig butchering" scheme could have stolen more than $75 billion. The "pig butchering" scheme is a fraudulent attack where cybercriminals convince unsuspecting people to invest in a doomed or non-existent business. Once the victim believes and hands over their money, the scammers immediately disappear.
According to the study, from January 2020 to February 2024, such criminals duped at least 4,000 people. The illegal operations predominantly took place in Southeast Asia. The researchers found that tracked transactions amounting to $15 billion out of the reported $75 billion led to five cryptocurrency exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Crypto.com, and HTX (formerly Huobi). The favorite asset among criminals was the stablecoin Tether (USDT), with more than 84% of the total transaction volume attributed to this popular coin.
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether's issuer, stated that the report is rather misleading. "Every Tether transaction occurs online, so any action can be tracked, assets can be confiscated, and the criminal caught. This is why we cooperate with law enforcement agencies," he commented to Bloomberg. It's noteworthy that the United Nations (UN) has also previously stated that USDT is one of the most popular means of payment among criminal groups in Southeast Asia. Representatives of the issuer then questioned the accuracy of such data.

– In the summer of 2022, it would have been the 110th birthday of Milton Friedman, the great economist and Nobel Prize laureate, often called "the most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century." Back in 1999, Friedman gave an interview in which he predicted the emergence of digital currencies. He described a system where transactions are conducted electronically, and the parties involved do not need to know each other's identities. In his forecast, Friedman highlighted the potential of digital currencies to provide unprecedented privacy and efficiency in financial transactions, marking a significant departure from traditional banking systems.
"I think that the internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government," said the distinguished scientist at the time. "The one thing that’s missing but will soon be developed is reliable electronic cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A."
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Donald Trump, the former (and possibly future) president of the United States and leader of the Republican Party, stated in a conversation with Fox News that the current development of bitcoin will require regulatory intervention from the authorities. He mentioned that bitcoin has "come into its own life," adding, "Many people are accepting it. I see an increasing number of people wanting to pay with bitcoin, which is interesting. Probably, some regulation will be needed. But I think I could coexist with that." However, Trump has not yet leaned towards adopting bitcoin as a means of payment in the US. "I have always liked having one currency... I like the dollar," he said.

– In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee, co-founder of analytics firm Fundstrat, predicted that the price of bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2024. He cited several factors bolstering his forecast: ETFs boosting demand, the halving event reducing supply, and the expected relaxation of monetary policy, all of which favour risk assets like bitcoin. Lee also suggested that the crypto market is unlikely to see a correction anytime soon. Looking ahead, he reaffirmed his January prediction that bitcoin could hit $500,000 within the next five years, lauding it as a reliable form of money that has proven its utility. "It's an excellent store of value and a good risky asset, which is also incredibly secure," Lee added, underscoring the cryptocurrency's appeal.

– Contrary to the views of Tom Lee and Donald Trump, experts at the European Central Bank (ECB) maintain that the fair value of bitcoin is still zero, even amidst the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US and the current price rally. In November 2022, ECB experts published an article titled "Bitcoin's Last Stand," in which they described the stabilization of the cryptocurrency's price as an artificially induced final gasp before its journey to ultimate obsolescence. Since then, the price of what's often referred to as digital gold has risen from ~$17,000 to ~$59,000. However, this increase has not swayed the bank's specialists to change their opinion. In a new essay titled "ETF Approval – The Emperor's New Clothes," they stated that their core arguments from over a year ago have proven to be correct. Firstly, bitcoin has failed as a global decentralized digital currency for payments. Secondly, the cryptocurrency has not become a viable investment asset, one that would inevitably appreciate in value.
"Bitcoin remains unsuitable as an investment," the essay reads. "It does not generate any cash flows (like real estate) or dividends (like stocks), cannot be productively used (like commodities), offers no social benefits (like gold jewellery), or subjective value based on exceptional skills (like works of art)," conclude the ECB experts.

– Renowned writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki has announced his intention to accumulate bitcoin and silver amid the escalating banking crisis. "Please be careful," he warned. "The banking crisis is intensifying. Central banks will push for CBDCs, central bank digital currencies, to monitor us." Kiyosaki revealed his strategy, stating, "I plan to acquire more bitcoin and silver coins. I will use them as a means of payment instead of counterfeit US dollars.".

– Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a senior analyst at JPMorgan, highlights that the activity of retail investors has been one of the main drivers behind the growth of bitcoin, ethereum, and other popular cryptocurrencies. Despite the recent introduction of spot BTC-ETFs, purchases by retail crypto investors, who often invest relatively small amounts, significantly exceed the cash flows from large corporations. (According to a recent JPMorgan survey, institutional investors have become less confident in the blockchain's potential: their numbers dropped to 7% in 2024).
"An increase in retail investor activity in February reflects the emergence of three key growth catalysts for the crypto market in the coming months: the reduction of BTC mining rewards, a major Ethereum network upgrade – Dencun, and the potential approval of spot ETH-ETFs in May," JPMorgan believes. The bank's analysts think that the first two catalysts are largely priced in, so they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the crypto market's dynamics. As for the approval of Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds, the likelihood is only 50%. Therefore, despite the upcoming positive events, caution is advised.

– ChatGPT-4 was asked to predict the price of bitcoin following the halving in April 2024. The artificial intelligence noted that "looking at historical trends, it's evident that the price of bitcoin usually experiences significant growth within a year after such an event." Based on this observation, the AI suggested that a similar increase could occur this time as well. Consequently, by August 2025, the price of BTC could reach $179,000.
Alongside this prediction, ChatGPT-4 acknowledged the difficulty of making accurate forecasts due to the influence of various economic, regulatory, and technological factors. Therefore, "it's important to bear in mind that these figures are speculative and depend on a wide range of unpredictable factors."

– After breaking through the $56,000 level, legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, revised his forecast for the price of the leading cryptocurrency in 2025 from $120,000 to $200,000. The expert raised the bar because bitcoin had breached the upper boundary of resistance in a 15-month channel (on the BTC/USD chart, these are trend lines that connect the lows of November 2022 and September 2023, as well as the highs of April 2023 and January 2024). According to Brandt, the current bullish cycle will conclude in August-September 2025, by which time the quotes of digital gold are expected to reach the stated target.
Regarding the point of exiting the position, Brandt, half-jokingly or seriously, stated that he would use laser eyes on the X network as a "contrary indicator," just as in 2021. "So, folks," he urged, "if you want bitcoin to maintain a strong trend, please do not post laser eyes on your social media profile pictures. Too many laser eyes signal a time to sell."

– On January 25, malefactors gained control over the MicroStrategy company account on the X network and posted malicious links to a fake "token giveaway" for MSTR tokens. Following the link in the post, users were prompted to connect their wallet and request a bogus AirDrop, enabling hackers to take control over the victims' addresses. It's worth noting that some market participants pointed out the clear deception, as MicroStrategy, a company exclusively focused on bitcoin, would unlikely launch a token on Ethereum. Nevertheless, there were still those who fell for the scammers' tricks. According to on-chain detective ZachXBT, the estimated losses of the victims amounted to about $440,000.

– Investor, Heisenberg Capital founder, and Keiser Report host Max Keiser has likened investing in bitcoin to buying shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in March 1985, when they were priced at $1,500 each. Since then, the value of these shares has increased to $629,000. According to Keiser, bitcoin could potentially see an increase of more than 41,000%. If the leading cryptocurrency were to experience such explosive growth, each coin would be valued at over $21,000,000. In this scenario, the market capitalization of the digital asset would surpass $450 trillion, greatly exceeding the valuations of the world's largest corporations. For comparison, the current market capitalization of Apple Inc. is $2.82 trillion, positioning it as one of the most valuable companies globally. Following are Microsoft with a valuation of $2.0 trillion, Alphabet with $1.77 trillion, and Amazon with $1.6 trillion.
Additionally, Max Keiser has issued a warning to traders and investors about a potential significant downturn in the US stock market akin to the crash of 1987. He stated, "A crash like in 1987 is coming. bitcoin is the perfect safe haven, with its price possibly soaring above $500,000."
Analysts at investment firm ARK Invest have also ventured a bold prediction that bitcoin's price could escalate to $2.3 million per coin. However, realizing such a scenario would necessitate a significant shift in the redistribution of global assets towards the premier cryptocurrency.
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, forecasts an 85% chance that bitcoin will reach a new all-time high within the next six months, potentially surpassing $70,000. He identifies five growth catalysts.
1. The halving in April, marking the fourth reduction of the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, which is expected to decrease selling pressure. Outumuro suggests bitcoin could reach a new all-time high (ATH) just a month after the halving.
2. The continued influx of funds into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on bitcoin could act as a second growth catalyst. While the duration of this strong inflow remains uncertain, its persistence could bolster the cryptocurrency's price through increased demand.
3. IntoTheBlock believes the Federal Reserve's tight stance on interest rates in 2022 laid the groundwork for a bear cycle not only in the crypto market but also across other risk assets. With inflation dropping from 10% to 3% by 2024, many anticipate a policy shift by the Federal Reserve towards cutting interest rates, likely driving the recent rally in both bitcoin and stocks. The expert notes that bitcoin's price movement has been more closely aligned with traditional assets recently, enhancing its correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to two-month highs.
4. The US presidential election, although current President Joe Biden is generally opposed to digital assets, the election campaigns tend to have a positive impact on the crypto market. IntoTheBlock's report states, "Polymarket currently gives Biden only a 33% chance of re-election, making Donald Trump, who is significantly more crypto-friendly, the most likely victor." However, to boost the incumbent's re-election chances, the Federal Reserve might adopt a more aggressive easing of its monetary policy, encouraging an influx of funds into both the stock and crypto markets.
5. Hedge funds are considered an unexpected growth driver by Outumuro. He recalls that when bitcoin recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, traditional financial giants first acknowledged the cryptocurrency's potential. The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs provided hedge funds with an opportunity to accumulate a new asset class, thus increasing demand from traditional investors and leading to greater adoption and acceptance of digital assets.
However, IntoTheBlock notes that these scenarios could change due to various factors. For instance, if the Federal Reserve does not ease its policy, bitcoin could face a 10% correction. The development of geopolitical conflicts could also negatively impact the price of digital gold. The experts do not rule out unexpected selling pressure in the event of major player bankruptcies. 

– Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs have revised their forecast for the S&P 500 index after it surpassed 5,000 points. They have set a year-end target for the index at 5,200, indicating a 3.9% increase from its current level. As previously noted by IntoTheBlock observations, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 is increasing, suggesting that the coin's value will rise alongside the US stock market.

– According to the Financial Times, hackers linked to North Korea are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to aid their efforts. In 2023, they launched 1.3 million attacks against South Korean companies and government agencies. Previously, their attempts often failed due to poor language skills and a lack of understanding of local social nuances. Now, North Korean hackers are leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance their effectiveness.
Erin Plante, Vice President of Research at Chainalysis, views this as a significant new threat. "North Korean hacking groups are creating trustworthy profiles on professional sites like LinkedIn. Generative neural networks help them communicate, send messages, create images, and new identities: everything needed to build close relationships with their victims," she explained. "They use detailed profiles on LinkedIn and other social networks to develop relationships over weeks and months." Plante described an instance where North Korean hackers deceived a senior engineer at a cryptocurrency exchange by posing as representatives of a Singaporean company. They asked the victim to perform a "technical test" by downloading software that turned out to be phishing malware.
Moreover, AI services like ChatGPT are assisting North Korean criminals in developing more complex and sophisticated forms of malicious software. The era of poorly worded emails with a "click this link" prompt is evolving into a more cunning approach to cybercrime.

– Dennis Liu, also known as Virtual Bacon, shared his bitcoin investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of identifying the optimal moment to sell an asset, which is as crucial as deciding to buy it. He outlined three elements designed to signal that the market might have reached its peak.
1. The first indicator to consider is the achievement of certain price milestones: $200,000 for bitcoin and $15,000 for Ethereum. Liu's assumption is based on historical cycles and diminishing returns. This is a clear, quantifiable indicator that eliminates guesswork when deciding to exit a position.
2. Liu's second benchmark is time-based. Regardless of the price dynamics of the assets, he plans to exit his positions by the end of 2025. This decision relies on the importance of historical patterns and is based on the analysis of halving cycles and the duration of bull markets.
3. The final element of Liu's methodology involves meticulous monitoring of price patterns, specifically the behaviour of BTC relative to its 200-day and 21-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). Falling below these support levels would signal the need to sell bitcoin. 

– Analyst Gareth Soloway suggested that bitcoin could potentially retest the $30,000 mark, especially if the stock market undergoes a correction in the range of 20% to 30%. He referred to a new possible support level for bitcoin as the "line in the sand." "My main line in the sand is the level from $30,000 to $32,000. If we drop there, I will start buying quite large volumes of BTC," he stated.

– Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes the main question for traders now is how the price of BTC will change in the coming months. The analyst expects a pullback in bitcoin could occur when it reaches the $53,000-$58,000 level. Therefore, investors should wait for a correction of 20-40% before entering the market. However, "if you buy bitcoin with the intention of holding it for two to three years, and if you believe that over this period bitcoin will grow to $150,000, then nothing should stop you from purchasing it at these [current] prices," Van De Poppe wrote.

– Recently, Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Shapeshift, discreetly urged Apple to purchase several billion dollars' worth of BTC and to adopt the first cryptocurrency as a payment method in Apple Pay. He believes this move could instantly generate substantial profits for the company and contribute to the further spread of cryptocurrency. A similar idea was proposed in 2021 by Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy. "If Apple added support for bitcoin to the iPhone and converted its treasury to the bitcoin standard, it would bring its shareholders at least one trillion dollars," he wrote at the time.
Chen Fang, Chief Operating Officer of BitGo, also spoke about Apple, suggesting that integrating BTC into Apple Pay and the new Apple Vision Pro headset would allow the company to dominate payments in the metaverse.
It's worth noting that Apple, the world's second-largest company by market capitalization, has had a complicated relationship with the emerging cryptocurrency sector. In the Apple App Store, applications related to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are regularly removed. Over time, apps like MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Trust Wallet, and Damus have faced sanctions. Meanwhile, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has called bitcoin a sensible investment choice, revealing that he once made significant investments in this digital asset.

– Over the past week, Ethereum has significantly outpaced bitcoin in terms of growth rate. According to Standard Chartered bank, the coin's price could rise to $4,000 in anticipation of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Ethereum ETFs. Bernstein analysts believe the likelihood of this happening is substantial: nearly 50% for a launch by May and almost 100% within the next 12 months. "Ethereum, with its dynamic yield rates, environmentally friendly design, and utility in creating new financial markets, has strong potential for widespread institutional adoption. It is likely the only digital asset alternative to bitcoin that could receive clear ETF approval from the SEC," Bernstein suggests. Analysts believe that officials may be influenced by the fact that participants in the traditional stock market are not only looking to launch spot ETFs on Ethereum similar to bitcoin ETFs but also intend to "build more transparent and open tokenized financial markets on the ETH network, where the utility goes beyond mere asset accumulation."
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– The price of bitcoin surged past $51,700 on 14 February, reaching a new high since 2021. This bull rally is largely attributed to the commencement of operations by nine leading spot bitcoin ETFs. According to The Block, a month after their launch, their assets exceeded 200,000 BTC (about $10 billion). These new bitcoin ETFs have risen to second place in the ranking of commodity exchange-traded funds in the US by asset volume, becoming a more popular investment instrument than silver ETFs. Observers have highlighted a statement from investment giant BlackRock, noting, "Investor interest in bitcoin remains high, hence the fund is ready to purchase even more BTC."
Documenting Bitcoin reports that Wall Street representatives are currently purchasing 12.5 times more BTC coins daily than the network can produce. Researchers believe this is the key driver behind the increased demand and price for the flagship crypto asset.

– Analysts at CryptoQuant have identified another factor that could lead to an increase in the price of BTC in 2024 and 2025: the upcoming halving. The researchers emphasised that this event significantly reduces the supply of bitcoin approximately every four years. They also agree that the recent approval of spot bitcoin ETFs has been one of the most powerful bullish factors for the growth in value of the leading cryptocurrency.
CryptoQuant also noted a significant increase in the number of active wallets, indicating a long-term upward trend. "Considering the reduction in supply, increased demand, and various economic and social issues, particularly the expected ongoing inflation, bitcoin is likely to strengthen its position as a long-term alternative investment asset with an upward trend," the analysts conclude.

– Anthony Pompliano, co-founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital, also highlighted the success of the recent launch of spot BTC ETFs. The fact that BlackRock and Fidelity were able to attract $3 billion each in record time marks a historic event for exchange-traded funds.
"Wall Street is not just in love with bitcoin," the financier wrote, "they are in an active love affair. The daily supply of bitcoin to funds is limited to just 900 BTC, which equates to approximately $40-45 million. Meanwhile, the daily net inflow of funds into BTC ETFs already equals $500 million. This is a clear indicator of a BTC shortage and its bullish impact on the price of the cryptocurrency and the market as a whole," Pompliano stated, noting the imbalance between the market supply of bitcoin and the demand from Wall Street companies.
The billionaire is optimistic about the future trajectory of BTC and asserts that with the demand from Wall Street continuing, especially considering the upcoming halving, the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization could significantly surpass its historical highs.

– The appearance of photographs with laser eyes in the personal accounts of US President Joe Biden sparked a wave of discussion within the crypto community. This led to speculation on whether Biden has become a supporter of bitcoin or if this was a strategic move for his 2024 presidential campaign to gain the support of crypto investors. There was also speculation that Biden's account might have been hacked.
It's important to remember that the "laser eyes" phenomenon is typically used as a symbol to demonstrate a bullish outlook on bitcoin. It emerged as part of a social media movement aimed at driving the price of BTC to $100,000 by the end of 2021, a goal that was not achieved. Among the most famous personalities who once featured laser eyes were Paris Hilton and Elon Musk.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House official, believes that some retail investors might think they have missed the opportunity to buy bitcoin. His unequivocal response is, "No, it's not too late." In addition to the launch of spot BTC ETFs and the halving, Scaramucci highlighted the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. "The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday, 13 February, signalled that inflation may not be as under control as the Fed would like," the investor writes. Based on data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index for January showed an inflation rate of 3.1%. The data also led to speculation that the Fed's reduction of interest rates in March and May is likely off the table.
According to Scaramucci, the delay in rate cuts could lead to turbulent trading in the mainstream market but will act as a boom for the crypto world, as bitcoin is used as a hedge against inflation.

– Glassnode has identified that numerous on-chain indicators are now in what's termed the "risk zone." This assessment leverages a variety of metrics that analyze a comprehensive array of data pertaining to hodlers' behaviour, covering both short-term and long-term investment cycles. Experts have noted that a heightened risk level is typically observed at the beginning stages of a bull market. This phenomenon occurs as hodlers might start securing profits upon reaching a "significant level" of return.
Specifically, the MVRV ratio, which monitors the activity of long-term hodlers, has reached a critical zone. Such a high ratio (2.06) has not been seen since the FTX collapse. Currently, a "high" to "very high" risk status is also attributed to six out of the nine remaining metrics. These metrics highlight a relatively low level of profits being realized, in spite of the recent weeks' active price surge, as explained by the specialists.

– In the first two days of this week, the S&P 500 index fell from 5051 to 4922 points. Robert Kiyosaki, the renowned author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," financier, and writer, has once again issued a stark warning that this stock index is on the brink of a massive crash, with a potential plunge of up to 70%. He accompanied this statement with his consistent recommendation to invest in solid assets such as gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Kiyosaki argues that financial advisors tend to direct their clients towards traditional investments due to their historical appeal and the significant commissions they earn from these recommendations. However, he emphasizes that historical data actually supports the superiority of solid assets, particularly gold, which has outperformed the S&P 500 index over decades. Kiyosaki firmly believes that diversification and the inclusion of solid assets in investment portfolios can be a wise strategy to mitigate potential losses in market volatility. He has called on investors to reassess their strategies and choose knowledgeable financial advisors.

– A popular analyst on Platform X, known as EGRAG CRYPTO, believes that the market capitalization of bitcoin will reach $2 trillion by September this year. Based on this, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will exceed $100,000. "Prepare for the journey of your life," EGRAG CRYPTO urges his followers. "Hold on tight, as you are witnessing a cryptocurrency revolution. Don't blink, or you might miss this historic moment in financial history!"

– During Q3 2023, the billionaire Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, known as the founder and former CEO of PayPal, invested $200 million in bitcoin and Ethereum. The amount was evenly distributed between the first and second cryptocurrencies, as informed sources told Reuters. According to the agency's information, this move marked the return of some institutional players to digital assets after the collapse of FTX and the subsequent regulatory pressure.
As one of the first venture crypto investors, Founders Fund began aggressively purchasing bitcoin back in 2014 but sold off this asset before the market crash in 2022, securing a profit of approximately $1.8 billion. In 2023, Founders Fund made its first purchases when the digital gold was valued below $30,000. Considering the current price, this operation has resulted in an unrealized profit of over 65%.

– Trader and entrepreneur Andrew Kang believes it's a mistake to attribute the current rise in bitcoin to the start of spot BTC ETF operations. "People seem to forget that there was a huge ongoing demand for bitcoin even before these exchange-traded funds were approved," Kang writes. "Meanwhile, BTC has become an almost trillion-dollar asset and has been consistently growing over the last decade." "Just the assumption that cryptocurrency owners allocate just 1% of their income to BTC annually should lead us to conclude: the potential cash flow into bitcoins could reach at least $52 billion per year, or almost $150 million per day."
Furthermore, Andrew Kang is convinced that his assessment of the situation is quite conservative and likely does not account for business and institutional financial flows. The expert is confident that the market demand for the asset will more than absorb all the volumes from expected sales of bitcoins, both from miners and large holders like the Mt.Gox exchange.

– US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has recently asserted that US banks are very strong, a claim met with sarcasm by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who noted that New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) might disagree.
Last week, the US banking sector was engulfed in fear as NYCB reported a colossal quarterly loss of $252 million. The bank's total loan losses quintupled to $552 million, fuelled by concerns over commercial real estate. Following this report, NYCB's stock plummeted by 40% in one day, leading to a downturn in the US Regional Banks Index.
Arthur Hayes recalled the bitcoin rally triggered by the banking crisis in March 2023, when three major US banks failed within five days. "Yeah... From solid to bankrupt, that's the future. And then there will be even more money, printers... and BTC at $1 million," he commented on the NYCB failure.

– Popular blogger and analyst Lark Davis believes investors have 692 days to become wealthy. He discussed the importance of market cycles and the timely sale of assets. Davis noted that if traders pay attention, they can make a lot of money in the next two years. According to the expert, 2024 will offer the last chance to buy digital assets, while 2025 will be the best time to sell them. However, he advises against selling everything at once, recommending a gradual profit-taking strategy instead. Lark Davis also warned that a "Great Depression" will begin in the global economy and the cryptocurrency market in 2026. Failing to sell in time could result in significant losses.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Nayib Bukele was re-elected as President of El Salvador on February 4, winning by a substantial margin. The leader, who has openly supported bitcoin and made it the country's first legal tender, garnered the support of the majority of the Salvadoran society, securing approximately 85% of the electorate's votes. "This is a record for democratic elections worldwide," Bukele stated.
Shortly before the election, it was announced that should Bukele win the presidency by a large margin, he would expand the use of bitcoin. Specifically, Bukele plans to issue passports to bitcoin entrepreneurs and launch Volcano bonds, which will fund the construction of Bitcoin City, a tax haven for crypto companies.

– Jim Rogers, an investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, believes that bitcoin does not pose a threat as a potential replacement for existing government currencies. According to him, despite bitcoin's growth and current perception, the primary role of the flagship cryptocurrency is to serve as a trading instrument. Rogers emphasized that governments are unlikely to recognize bitcoin as a currency, as they fear potential competition with existing monetary systems. However, the investor suggests that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are likely to be adopted in several countries around the world.

– The former President of the United States, Donald Trump, also commented on the possibility of the country adopting a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). He stated that if he were to be re-elected, he would prevent the introduction of this type of currency in the United States. Trump emphasized that a CBDC infringes upon citizens' rights and freedoms, as it would allow government entities access to detailed information about people's financial activities. "I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency that would enable the theft of your money," Trump declared.

– The popular blogger PlanB has stated that following the upcoming bitcoin halving in April, bitcoin will become scarcer than gold and real estate, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach a price around $500,000. Based on his Stock-to-Flow model, the expert considered that the digital asset's market capitalization might not surpass that of gold: over $10 trillion. However, approaching this mark and a coin issuance of 20 million could lead to the stated price. PlanB did not specify a timeframe for reaching this price.
The analyst also named the minimum level below which, in his opinion, the primary cryptocurrency will not fall. The 200-week moving average (200WMA) of the BTC price has exceeded $31,000, and according to PlanB, historically, the price has never dropped below this metric.

– Scott Melker, a renowned trader, investor, writer, and host of "The Wolf Of All Streets" podcast, who also holds the title of Binance Influencer of the Year, has shared his perspective on the upcoming bitcoin halving. He believes this event could drive the price of bitcoin up to $240,000. "The bitcoin halving will occur when the number of mined blocks reaches 840,000 in April 2024, at which point the block reward will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC," Melker explained. "Essentially, this means that the issuance of new coins will be halved. It will become twice as difficult for miners to earn money from bitcoin mining." Following the previous halving, the BTC price soared from $20,000 to $69,000, marking a 250% increase. Therefore, if the situation repeats this time, the next peak after $69,000 could be $240,000. "I know it might seem like an exaggeration... This cycle has worked in the past. And until I see it fail [this time], I'm prepared to bet that bitcoin will exceed $200,000," Melker insists.
It's worth noting that Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of Skybridge Capital, also recently expressed optimism about bitcoin's future. He believes the halving will lift the BTC price to $170,000.

– CryptoQuant has announced that bitcoin miner reserves have dropped to their lowest level since July 2021. The wallets of mining pools are holding the lowest volume of cryptocurrency since the so-called Great Migration of miners from China to other countries in Eurasia and North America. Moreover, last week saw the largest outflow of BTC from miners' autonomous wallets to exchanges.
Analysts at Bitfinex are also observing an influx of bitcoins to exchange addresses associated with mining companies. They believe that a massive coin dump could occur in the coming days. Consequently, pressure will increase again, and the digital currency may fall below $40,000. The Bitfinex report notes that sales are increasing due to the approaching halving. They estimate that, following the miners, short-term investors may join the sell-off. They will start to dispose of the cryptocurrency for fear that its price will fall below the level at which they purchased the coins. 

– Michael Van De Poppe, a renowned trader, investor, and founder of MN Trading, believes that the value of bitcoin could reach $500,000. He highlighted several factors that will cause an explosive growth in the flagship coin's rate. Among these factors are the current market state, the launch of BTC-ETFs, inflows from institutional investors, and others. An important factor will be the halving, after which a bullish growth of the cryptocurrency market is expected. The researcher emphasized that the current cycle might be slightly longer than before, due to the entry of institutional players into the market and a change in the overall direction of the industry's development. According to the analyst, liquidity influences, macroeconomic factors, and others could have a greater impact on the market.
Van De Poppe suggests a scenario where the value of bitcoin could rise to $48,000 before the halving, hitting a key resistance level. This would be followed by another correction, resulting in a 20% price drop. After the halving, the BTC value will start to rise again and reach a local peak by the fall.

– Grok, an artificial intelligence developed by Elon Musk's company xAI, has made two predictions: by the end of 2024, the Ethereum rate will range from $4,000 to $5,000; within the year, the value of ETH could peak at $6,500. Grok highly values the prospects of Ethereum due to the development of its ecosystem and the upcoming Dencun update, scheduled for February 8. This upgrade is expected to enhance the scalability of the ETH blockchain and significantly reduce transaction processing costs in second-layer networks through the implementation of proto-danksharding technology, which allows for increased blockchain throughput. The artificial intelligence also identifies spot Ethereum ETFs as catalysts for the coin's price growth, which could be approved by the end of May. Applications for the issuance of these derivatives have been submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by six major American companies: Volatility Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, Roundhill, and Proshares.

– Senator Elizabeth Warren asserts that her legislative proposal has already garnered the support of 19 members of the U.S. Senate. She hopes that "common sense will prevail," and her supporters, along with other congressmen, "will achieve effective measures to combat the criminal use of crypto assets."
Should the law come into effect, the anti-money laundering regulations from the traditional finance sector will fully apply to digital asset market players. According to the draft document, Know Your Customer (KYC) rules will affect providers of autonomous wallets, miners, validators, and other independent network participants. All financial institutions in the U.S. will be required to report on measures to prevent money laundering, tax evasion, and other criminal activities. "This bill will close the gaps in our anti-money laundering regulations," Warren stated, referencing a report by the analytics firm Chainalysis, which indicated that from 2022 to 2024, stablecoins accounted for more than 50% of transactions by cybercriminals.

– Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, asserts that investors have begun shifting from gold to bitcoin following the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). "Bitcoin is growing relative to gold. The substitution of gold with bitcoin is in full swing. And we believe this will continue now that a less complex access to bitcoin has emerged," she stated.
Cathy Wood anticipates that bitcoin will emerge as a "risk-free asset" when the banking sector shows signs of weakness again. The market witnessed this firsthand in March 2023, during the "regional banking crisis" in the United States, which resulted in a 40% surge in the price of digital gold. (Recent analysis by Fidelity indicates that bitcoin's inverse correlation with banking interest rates disappeared in 2023, despite rising rates worldwide).
 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Analysts note that the 12-month volatility of the first cryptocurrency has reached its lowest level in 12 years. The indicator has fluctuated significantly over the years, but overall, it has shown a clear downward trend during this period. From 179% in January 2012, it fell to 45% at the beginning of this year. A higher figure indicates significant price variability and signals greater market unpredictability. Lower metric values suggest much more stable trading conditions.
CryptoQuant believes that reduced volatility may indicate a greater number of long-term holders. Meanwhile, the research department at Galaxy Digital predicts that the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the USA will further smooth price fluctuations. "A huge amount of BTC will be in the accounts of [investment] advisors. They are not interested in intraday trading," the experts state.

– Analysts at Matrixport have predicted a fall in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $36,000. They believe that bitcoin can then appreciate, but only against the backdrop of favourable macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity. It's worth recalling that in December, these same analysts forecasted bitcoin to reach $125,000 in 2024.

– Chris Burniske, a partner at the venture firm Placeholder, has forecasted that the price of bitcoin will initially drop to the $30,000-$36,000 range, before potentially reaching a local bottom around $20,000. "We're heading towards a consolidation lower than most people expect, due to too many variables (such as the specifics of the crypto market, macroeconomics, the adoption and development of new products)," the expert warned. However, he believes that testing levels around $20,000 will be a "real step" towards eventually returning to previous highs. "The journey there will be volatile – expect setbacks. And it will take months. As always, your best friend is patience," Burniske emphasized, adding that the fall in other assets will be deeper than that of bitcoin.

– Amazon MGM Studios has launched the production of the feature film "Razzlekhan," which will narrate the story of the 2016 Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange hack involving 120,000 BTC. The film is based on a 2022 New York Times article about the married couple, Russian Ilya Lichtenstein and American Heather Morgan, who are accused of laundering the stolen funds. The film's title is derived from Morgan's rap pseudonym.
In February 2022, the U.S. authorities arrested the couple and seized bitcoins worth $3.6 billion. That same month, Morgan was released on a $3 million bail, while Lichtenstein remained in custody.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a well-known opponent of the first cryptocurrency, unexpectedly conceded that by 2031, the price of bitcoin could reach $10 million, albeit under a very hypothetical scenario. According to him, this could occur if the US dollar follows the path of the "German paper mark". This term informally referred to the currency introduced in Germany at the beginning of World War I in 1914, replacing the previous mark, which was backed by gold.
In the early 1920s, the paper mark depreciated due to hyperinflation. During these years, companies paid salaries several times a day so that workers could make purchases before the next price increase. The money supply grew so rapidly that the state couldn't print banknotes fast enough and had to involve private printers. The largest denomination issued was a 100 trillion-mark banknote.

– While Peter Schiff may be sceptical and ironic about the prospect of an economic collapse and the fall of the US dollar, Robert Kiyosaki, the investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," harbours no such doubts. He insists that gold, silver, and bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. Kiyosaki, admitting his limited knowledge about the main cryptocurrency, believes in the success of bitcoin due to the "very smart people" involved in it. He is confident that the price of BTC could reach $1 million in the event of a global economic downturn.

– The analyst known as Rekt Capital believes traders have one last opportunity to purchase bitcoin at a low price. His analysis of historical data has led him to several conclusions. 1. If bitcoin's price does not decrease within the next two weeks, it's unlikely to significantly drop before the halving, which is scheduled for April 19. 2. Around 60 days prior to the halving, BTC’s price is expected to increase due to the excitement surrounding the event. 3. Following the halving, there might be a rush by speculators to sell their holdings, potentially causing bitcoin's price to fall for several weeks, possibly by 20-38%. 4. After this period, a phase of accumulation is anticipated, which could last up to 150 days and is characterized by relatively low price volatility for BTC. 5. This accumulation phase is expected to be followed by a phase of parabolic growth in bitcoin's rate, culminating in a new historical high.

– A new study has revealed that the adoption of digital assets continues to grow actively in Europe. The Binance team conducted a survey across several European countries, including France, Italy, Spain, and Sweden, involving over 10,000 participants. The findings from the study showed that 73% of European residents believe in the future of cryptocurrencies. 55% of respondents reported using cryptocurrency for purchases, with 10% doing so on a weekly basis. Additionally, 24% indicated that nearly half of their trading operations involve tokens.
The main factors contributing to the adoption of digital assets in Europe, as identified by survey participants, include high profitability, decentralization, and innovation. Rachel Conlan, Chief Marketing Officer at Binance, noted that such widespread integration of digital assets in Europe is facilitated by a safe and harmonized regulatory framework in the region.

– Analyst DonAlt informed his 56,700 YouTube subscribers that despite the volatility due to the launch of BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bitcoin has managed to avoid a complete price collapse. The digital gold remains strong even after its price fell below $40,000 last week. The expert believes that the absence of major selloffs is a positive sign. "For this reason, I'm no longer in the bear camp; now I'm in the bull camp," he stated. DonAlt also emphasized that bitcoin is consolidating within a strong upward trend and is likely to regain its bullish momentum as soon as it overcomes the resistance level at $44,000. 

– According to analysts at Glassnode, the majority of long-term investors are still reluctant to part with their coins. The Glassnode report indicates that the vast majority of BTC holders are adhering to a hodling strategy in anticipation of higher spot prices. K33 Market Research reports that the volume of spot trading in bitcoins has reached "consistently high activity following the approval of ETFs." It's noted that "a significant portion of ETF flows is likely distributed among other over-the-counter orders, not affecting the spot market order books." According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, the monthly volume of on-chain transactions in the bitcoin network in January was at a multi-month high, with trading volume for January exceeding $1.11 trillion.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital hedge fund, believes that the price of bitcoin will surge to at least $170,000 following the halving in April. "On the day of the halving, multiply the BTC price by four, and it will reach this level within the next 18 months," he stated. "For instance, if the price is $50,000, then later bitcoin will be worth $200,000," explained the investor. Previously, the head of SkyBridge had claimed that the BTC price post-halving could reach $100,000. He also cited the reduction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate in the USA as an additional reason for the onset of a bullish rally.
Regarding the long-term price, Scaramucci forecasts that bitcoin's market capitalization could reach half of gold's market capitalization, which is $14.5 trillion. Consequently, according to his calculations, the price of the coin could be around $345,000.

– Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, utilizes Elliott Wave Theory in his forecasts, which suggests that asset prices move in five waves. According to this theory, the first, third, and fifth waves are "impulse waves," while the others are "corrective waves." The recent decline in bitcoin’s price represents the fourth wave, or a correction, the analyst believes. Currently, the fifth wave is starting, which could drive the price upwards. "Wave analysis has marked this recovery up to $52,671 potentially by the end of Q1 2024," the 10x Research representative announced. In his view, the bitcoin price is influenced by the overall growth of the stock market and the cessation of fund outflows from Grayscale's largest bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The growth of digital assets will also be supported by Google's decision to allow advertising for cryptocurrency ETFs. 
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– On January 11, bitcoin reached a peak of $47,787, a height last seen in the spring of 2022. However, instead of the anticipated growth, it plummeted and recorded a local low of $38,520 on January 23. In just 12 days, the leading cryptocurrency lost nearly 20%. According to experts, this is a classic case of the "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario. Initially, there was an impressive bull rally, fueled by speculation about the launch of bitcoin ETFs on the stock exchange. However, once these funds became operational, market participants began actively taking profits.
The inflow of capital into BTC-ETFs, many of which were launched by major Wall Street players like BlackRock, was not as substantial as expected. Data from CoinShares shows that the 10 new funds launched on January 11 had gathered $4.7 billion by the end of Tuesday. Meanwhile, $3.4 billion flowed out of the Grayscale trust, which was considered the world's largest holder of bitcoin and has now also been transformed into a BTC-ETF. Logic suggests that a significant portion of the money in the 10 new funds likely came from Grayscale investors who switched to competitors with lower fees. If this is the case, then the inflow of new investments into the funds amounts to only $1.3 billion.

– Along with bitcoin, all major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and others, also suffered losses. Analysts believe that digital assets are facing additional pressure due to improvements in the stock markets, with both American and European indices on the rise. Investors are anticipating the recovery of the US economy ahead of the January 25 publication of the country's GDP data for Q4 2023.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, didn't miss the opportunity to gloat over the buyers of bitcoin ETF shares. The share price of these funds fell by 20% or more from their peak. The FBTC shares suffered the most, depreciating by 32%. "I think VanEck should change the ticker of its ETF from HODL to GTFO [from 'hold' to 'get rid of", Schiff commented. This advocate for physical gold didn't limit his criticism to spot BTC-ETFs but also highlighted the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which allows investment in bitcoin futures. Since the launch of this derivative in October 2021, its share price has plummeted by more than half.
Schiff believes that the owners of spot bitcoin ETFs will continue to incur losses. Some experts do not rule out the possibility of the coin's price falling to $30,000 - $35,000, lending some credence to the financier's bleak forecast.

– An analyst operating under the pseudonym Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles of the first cryptocurrency and suggested a further decline in its value. The expert pointed out that during previous rallies, bitcoin followed a consistent pattern: first reaching the Fibonacci level of 78.6%, followed by a correction to 50%. Hence, according to this model, a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $32,700 (50%) is not ruled out.
Trader Mikeystrades also considered a dip to $31,000 and advised against opening long positions. "Save your money until the market starts showing bullish strength and follows the flow of orders," the expert emphasized.
A crypto trader known as EliZ predicted a fall in bitcoin's value to $30,000. "I anticipate a bearish distribution over the next two to three months, with the second half of 2024 likely to be truly bullish. These pauses are necessary to keep the market in a healthy state," he stated.

– Caroline Mauron, the head of OrBit Markets, told Bloomberg that if bitcoin fails to consolidate above $40,000 soon, we could witness a significant liquidation of positions in the futures market accompanied by a panic withdrawal of capital from the crypto sphere.
Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, has a different view. He emphasized that bitcoin has gathered liquidity and is approaching a local bottom. "Buy at the lows. Bitcoin under $40,000 is an opportunity," the analyst urges.
Yann Allemann, co-founder of blockchain data provider Glassnode, also known as Negentropic, believes that a bullish rally in the bitcoin market will start in the first half of 2024. He predicts that by early July, the coin's value will rise to $120,000. This forecast is based on the asset's past price dynamics after the appearance of a bullish flag on the chart.

– In recent critical remarks about digital gold, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, once again expressed doubts about the asset's finite supply limit of 21 million coins.
In response, Jameson Lopp, co-founder & CTO of Casa, posted a fragment of the bitcoin protocol code that establishes a halving of miners' rewards every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. This mechanism implies that after 33 halvings, the reward will drop to zero from the initial 50 BTC, meaning no new coins will be produced. Lopp asserted that "even Satoshi [Nakamoto] can't force" a change in these five lines of the software.
However, some experts believe that theoretically, modifications to bitcoin's source code, like any other, are possible, and the emission limit of 21 million coins could be lifted. But such a decision would have to be made by a consensus of miners. A historical precedent cited is the "block size war" of 2017, when some developers, crypto companies, and mining pools wanted to increase the block size from the original 1 MB to scale the network. This idea was rejected by the community as it would have led to greater centralization of bitcoin.
In a Bitcointalk forum discussion of Dimon's statement, users noted that increasing the emission would negatively impact trust in the cryptocurrency. "The finite supply of 21 million BTC is an advantage that sets bitcoin apart from other banking products. With an emission limit, the asset becomes more valuable. Any attempt to increase the supply is foolishness by short-sighted people who want to undermine trust in digital gold," comments on the forum read. Most participants in the discussion agreed that the final decision remains with the community, which is unlikely to support a change in emission parameters.

– The crypto exchange BitMEX organized a mission with an ambitious goal: to deliver the main digital asset to the surface of Earth's natural satellite. Aboard the lunar lander was a 43-gram cold crypto wallet containing 1 BTC. The module was inscribed with text from the bitcoin genesis block: a tribute to the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto.
However, something went wrong. The spacecraft, launched into space ten days ago, struggled to maintain orientation towards the Sun, necessary for charging its onboard batteries. Engineers at Astrobotic detected a fuel leak in the module's engine system, but it was too late. NASA recommended burning the module in the atmosphere. Eventually, it almost completely burned up, with the remnants falling somewhere in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean. Thus, the bitcoin managed to travel only 50,000 km from Earth's surface, instead of the planned 385,000 km.

– Bloomberg exchange analyst James Seyffart believes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may authorize the trading of options on spot bitcoin ETFs. He announced this on his page on X (formerly Twitter). Seyffart notes that the SEC has already taken into consideration applications under form 19b-4 for the possibility of trading such instruments. According to the analyst, approval could occur between February 15 and September 21 of this year.

– Last week, Morgan Stanley published a document titled "Digital (De)Dollarization?" authored by the bank's COO, Andrew Peel. According to the author, there is a clear shift towards reducing reliance on the dollar, which in turn is fuelling interest in digital currencies such as bitcoin, stablecoins, and CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). Peel writes that the recent surge in interest in these assets could significantly alter the currency landscape. He cites a recent survey by Sygnum Bank, which found that over 80% of institutional investors believe cryptocurrencies play a vital role in the global financial industry.

– Popular analyst Lark Davis has pointed out the significant demand for cryptocurrencies in South Korea. He suggests that if local authorities decide to approve a spot bitcoin ETF, it could potentially generate up to $3 billion per year. Additionally, Davis reminded that organizations in Hong Kong are planning to launch their debut product in Q1 this year. If this happens, the influx could amount to about $6 billion over 12 months. 

– The number of cryptocurrency users has reached over half a billion people, which is approximately 6% of the Earth's population. According to recent data, the number of people owning Ethereum has increased from 89 million to 124 million, while the number of Bitcoin owners by the end of the year rose from 222 million to 296 million. Notably, 40% of BTC owners also hold ETH, whereas 42% of cryptocurrency owners do not have these coins in their portfolios.
The increase in user numbers is linked to the prolonged bearish trend in the crypto market, as the authors of the study believe: “The adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2023 grew despite macroeconomic obstacles, namely: tightening of monetary policies by Western central banks in an attempt to curb inflation, military conflicts, and the long-term consequences of the pandemic.” Analysts at Crypto.com noted a particularly sharp demand for bitcoin in Q4 2023, spurred by expectations related to the launch of BTC-ETFs.

 

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CryptoNews of the Week


– The long-standing regulatory saga surrounding the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs finally concluded last week, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issuing the corresponding approval. Against this backdrop, the quotations momentarily surged to $49,000. However, the cryptocurrency subsequently depreciated by nearly 15%. Experts attribute this to an overbought condition or what is known as "market overheating," as reported by Cointelegraph. The SEC's positive decision had already been factored into the market price, and many investors now decided to realize profits rather than purchasing the more expensive asset.
Cointelegraph experts also noted that bitcoin ETFs have already attracted over $1.25 billion. On just the first day, the trading volume of these new financial market instruments reached $4.6 billion. However, the Bitcoin Dominance Index has been steadily declining. Over the past week, the index fell from 54.56% to 51.14%. Concurrently, many altcoins are exhibiting growth, indicating that investors are reallocating capital in favor of alternative coins.

– On the eve of the SEC's decision, some analysts had predicted a decline in bitcoin's price. For instance, analysts at CryptoQuant talked about a possible drop in quotations to $32,000. Other forecasts mentioned support levels at $42,000 and $40,000. "Bitcoin failed to overcome the $50,000 mark," Swissblock analysts write, raising the question of whether the leading cryptocurrency can regain the momentum it has lost.
Moreover, there is growing concern in the market due to the steady increase in the hash rate on the BTC network. This could lead to a scenario where miners start selling coins more actively. Recently, they have transferred bitcoins worth over $1 billion to centralized platforms, creating additional selling pressure and negatively impacting price dynamics. 

– The international environmental organization Greenpeace criticized the SEC's decision regarding spot bitcoin ETFs. "Without significant changes in mining practices, this poses serious problems for our efforts to prevent the worst consequences of the climate crisis," the environmentalists stated. "As the price of bitcoin rises, so does its environmental impact. Miners consume more electricity […], which is predominantly generated from fossil fuels, leading to increased carbon dioxide emissions and water consumption," Greenpeace added.

– The entry of BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company in terms of managed assets, into the crypto market could bring significant changes. This financial giant has the potential to surpass MicroStrategy as the foremost holder of digital gold. BlackRock's bitcoin ETF remarkably attracted about $500 million, roughly equivalent to 12,000 BTC, in just two days. Continuing at this pace, BlackRock could become the largest holder of bitcoins by February 1.
For context, MicroStrategy is currently the top holder with 189,150 BTC, outpacing competitors like Marathon Digital and Tesla.

– Analysts at the investment bank Morgan Stanley have studied global market trends and concluded that the role of the US dollar as the cornerstone of the international financial system may be reevaluated. In their view, the growing interest in digital assets like bitcoin, the increasing circulation of stablecoins, and the real prospects of using Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in cross-border transactions are changing the world.
"These innovations, though still in their infancy, open up possibilities for challenging the hegemony of the dollar. Macro-investors should consider how these digital assets, with their unique characteristics and increasing adoption, could alter the future dynamics of the dollar," Morgan Stanley strategists write.
Andrew Peel, Head of Digital Assets at Morgan Stanley, believes that the process of dedollarization in the global economy could significantly accelerate with the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, as weekly inflows into these new products already exceed billions of dollars. The popularity of BTC has been consistently growing over the last 15 years, and currently, over 106 million people worldwide own the first cryptocurrency, Andrew Peel reminds us.

– Elizabeth Warren, a member of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, criticized the SEC for approving bitcoin ETFs. She believes that this decision could harm the country's financial system and investors.
Conversely, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, took an opposing stance. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, she refuted concerns that bitcoin could potentially displace the US dollar. The IMF chief stated that cryptocurrencies are an asset class, not money, and it's essential to make this distinction.
Ms. Georgieva also disagrees with industry participants who think the recent approval of spot BTC-ETFs will lead to the mass adoption of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, that day is still far off, so such discussions are not very meaningful. "I'm not in a hurry to convert my dollars into another currency. It doesn't mean that one shouldn't diversify investments. But I wouldn't worry about bitcoin competing with the dollar," added the IMF director.

– Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytics firm Fundstrat, expressed his opinion in an interview with CNBC that the first cryptocurrency's quotations could reach $100,000 - $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $500,000 in the next five years. "In the next five years, we'll have a limited supply, but with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, we potentially have enormous demand, so I think something around $500,000 is quite achievable within five years," the expert stated. He also highlighted the upcoming halving in the spring of 2024 as an additional growth factor.

– Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, stated on CNBC that under a bullish scenario, the first cryptocurrency could reach a price of $1.5 million by 2030. Experts at her firm believe that even under a bearish scenario, the value of the digital gold will increase to $258,500.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, provided another forecast. "If bitcoin is priced at $45,000 during the halving, then by mid-to-late 2025, it could be worth $170,000. Whatever the price [of bitcoin] is on the day of the halving in April, multiply it by four, and it will reach that figure in the next 18 months," said the SkyBridge founder in Davos, ahead of the World Economic Forum. Scaramucci also mentioned that it would likely take another eight to ten trading days to observe the impact of the new spot ETFs on the price of the first cryptocurrency.

– Prominent investor and founder of MN Trading Consultancy, Michael Van De Poppe, reported that his account on social network X (formerly Twitter) was hacked on January 16th. He addressed his 864,000 followers, emphasizing his hope that none of them followed the phishing links posted by the culprits. The investor is counting on the fact that trusting users have not lost their cryptocurrency funds.
Following this incident, Van De Poppe continued to publish market analysis as usual. He noted that "this will be the last 'easy' cycle for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies." According to him, the current phase will take a bit longer than before, but it will change the lives of many people on Earth. Regarding the current situation, the expert said that the price is stuck between several levels. Resistance is at $46,000, but the price is expected to test support in the range of $37,000 to $40,000.

– Economist David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, views buying bitcoin more as gambling than investing. His distrust in BTC is partly due to its high volatility, as evidenced by its price movements following the SEC's decision to approve the first spot BTC-ETFs in the USA.
Rosenberg believes that traditional stocks, by contrast, represent future cash flows of any company; bonds and savings accounts yield interest, and commodities have industrial applications, and their demand can be modelled, unlike bitcoin.

"If you want to get rich believing in cryptocurrencies, then add lottery tickets to your assets," advises the economist. He adds, "This and other tokens are examples of the 'greater fool theory' in action – people buy them not because they are inherently valuable, but because they hope to sell them at a profit to someone even more foolish."

– Amid growing market speculation in anticipation of the imminent launch of a spot ETF for Ethereum, analysts at the investment bank TD Cowen have stated that, according to the information they have, it is unlikely that the SEC will begin to consider applications for approval of this investment instrument in the first half of 2024. "We believe that before approving an ETH-ETF, the SEC will want to gain practical experience with similar investment instruments in bitcoin," commented Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen Washington Research Group. TD Cowen believes that the SEC will return to the discussion of ETFs on Ethereum only after the U.S. presidential elections, which are scheduled for November 2024.
Senior analyst at JP Morgan, Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou, also does not anticipate the swift approval of spot ETH-ETFs. According to Panagirtzoglou, for the SEC to make a decision, Ethereum needs to be classified as a commodity, not a security. However, in the near future, JP Morgan considers this event unlikely.

– Six AI-based chatbots have predicted the price of bitcoin at the end of 2024:
Claude Instant from Anthropic's Forecast: With increasing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and reduced supply post-halving, the price of bitcoin is expected to reach $85,000 by December 31, 2024.
Pi from Inflection's Forecast: The approval of 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the USA certainly changes the game, and the upcoming halving adds more excitement. Considering the current price of bitcoin, it's predicted that the price could reach $75,000 by December 31, 2024.
Bard from Gemini's Forecast: The approval of 11 spot ETFs and the reduced supply due to the upcoming halving could trigger significant demand, potentially pushing the bitcoin price above $90,000 by December 31. However, unforeseen economic obstacles might restrain this growth, possibly capping the peak at around $70,000.
ChatGPT 3.5 from OpenAI's Forecast: Given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies and the influence of various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, legislative changes, and market sentiment, making accurate predictions is challenging. Considering these factors, a bitcoin price within $75,000 to $85,000 by December 31, 2024, seems plausible but not guaranteed.
ChatGPT 4's Forecast: Conservatively, the price range could be between $40,000 and $60,000, considering potential market fluctuations and investor caution. On the other hand, the price could potentially vary between $60,000 and $80,000, aided by implementation and investments following ETF approvals and the halving.
Bing AI from Co-Pilot Creative's Forecast: Based on information gathered from various sources, the forecast for the price of bitcoin on December 31, 2024, is around $75,000.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– A real drama unfolded in the cryptocurrency market after hackers breached the social network X (formerly Twitter) account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and posted a fake tweet about the approval of the long-awaited bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). This statement caught investors off guard as it was expected that this important decision by the SEC would only be published on Wednesday, January 10. The market reacted instantly, and the price of the main cryptocurrency soared to $48,000.
The head of the regulatory body, Gary Gensler, urgently published a denial, stating: "The SEC's Twitter account was hacked, and an unauthorized tweet was published. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of bitcoin spot exchange-traded products." Following this message, the BTC price reversed and dropped to around $45,000.

– As anticipation for a positive decision from the U.S. SEC grew, the number of Google search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" reached a record level. Last week, the percentage index exceeded the 50 mark, and this week it hit the maximum of 100 points. Interestingly, the search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" predominantly come not from the U.S. but from other countries. Canada leads with 100, followed by Hong Kong (86) and Singapore (85). Switzerland (73) ranks fourth, and Germany (72) is fifth among the most interested countries. As for the U.S. itself, it holds the 9th place with 39 percentage points.

– SEC Chair Gary Gensler warned on January 8 about the volatile nature of crypto assets and also reminded of the risks associated with crypto service providers. His recommendations followed amidst firms submitting updated applications for launching bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). Perianne Boring, the founder and president of the U.S. Chamber of Digital Commerce, believes that the SEC could delay its decision. In her view, amendments to these applications could be the reason for postponing the deadlines. Consequently, the Commission would need more time to coordinate the changes and might not complete all procedures even by the end of the week.
Perianne Boring hopes she is wrong. However, she admits that Gary Gensler and members of the expert commission may have received another chance to delay the final decision. The SEC, she is confident, has enough tools at its disposal to block the market entry of this exchange product altogether and is not willing to give up its position without a fight. Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, also believes that the regulator may avoid making a positive decision.

– Television host and founder of the hedge fund Cramer & Co., Jim Cramer, stated that the price of bitcoin has peaked and further growth should not be expected. He made this statement at the moment when bitcoin surpassed the $47,000 mark. Social media users and the crypto community consider Cramer a unique "indicator," whose predictions in the vast majority of cases... do not come true.

– Macro-strategist Henrik Zeberg expects a fantastic bull market in 2024. According to him, the dynamics of digital assets this year, driven by the arrival of new players, will be "parabolic." "[Bitcoin] will be absolutely explosive: it will go vertical. I think we will reach at least $115,000. That's my most conservative forecast. The $150,000 level is also quite achievable, and I see the potential for $250,000," notes the economist.
Zeberg added that thanks to the entry of institutional and traditional investors following the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the first four months of 2024 could be "incredibly impressive" for the crypto market. Everyone who did not participate in the first or second bull cycles will now say, "Oh, I missed the first two times, but I will be in this one." However, the expert believes that traditional markets are facing "the worst crash since 1929," when the Great Depression began in the U.S. 

– An unknown user sent on January 5 nearly 27 BTC (worth about $1.2 million at the time) to the wallet of bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This sender's address received funds from three different sources, the majority originating from a wallet registered with the cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
The genesis wallet of Satoshi Nakamoto, as of the time of writing, contains 99.67 BTC, which is valued at around $4.4 million. These assets have remained unmoved since the disappearance of the bitcoin creator in December 2010. Coinbase director Conor Grogan commented, "Either Satoshi has awakened, bought 27 BTC on Binance and transferred them to his own wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars." He also speculated that it might be a form of "strange marketing" related to the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

– Vytautas Kaseta, President of the Crypto Economy Organisation, has stated that while the crypto community celebrates January 3 as the birthday of bitcoin, technically this is not correct. On that day, Satoshi Nakamoto generated the zero block of the BTC blockchain, known as Genesis. However, this block only served as a starting point for creating the network, as it contained no actual transaction data. The first non-zero block, mined on January 9, 2009, marks the beginning of real transactions in the network, when the blockchain came to life as a functional means of exchange. It's the creation of this block that should be considered the true birthday of the first cryptocurrency, Vytautas Kaseta believes.

– The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the first cryptocurrency represents a "turning point" for the asset's adoption. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at Standard Chartered in a recent report. The bank estimates that by the end of 2024, exchange-traded funds will hold between 437,000 BTC and 1.32 million BTC. This is equivalent to a market inflow of $50-100 billion.
The analysts noted that exchange-traded products related to gold exhibited a similar dynamic, but only seven to eight years after their launch. "Bitcoin will see the same growth as a result of the approval of a spot ETF in the U.S., but we will see it materialize over a shorter period (one to two years), given the rapid development of the crypto market," explained Standard Chartered.

– Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed a similar sentiment, believing that 2024 could be the most important year for the first cryptocurrency. The billionaire noted in a new episode of the All-In podcast that the approval of a large number of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely be a "game changer for BTC." This could ultimately lead to the widespread adoption of the asset. Palihapitiya added that in this case, by the end of 2024, bitcoin will become a part of the traditional financial lexicon.

– Renowned analyst PlanB believes that the value of bitcoin could soon reach a range between $100,000 and $1 million. He explained that he does not expect a fall in BTC price because its level of adoption is only at 2-3%. According to the logistic S-curve of organizational development and Metcalfe's law, a decrease in asset profitability should not be expected while the level of adoption is below 50%. Therefore, the analyst opines, "the main cryptocurrency can expect exponential growth for a couple more years."
It's worth noting that PlanB is the creator of the Stock to Flow model for predicting the course of bitcoin. This model reflects the ratio of the available supply of an asset to the volume of its production. Thus, according to this model, the current price of the coin for most holders exceeds the purchase cost, which is a "distinctive signal of bullish growth."

– According to CoinDesk, the 40-day correlation between digital gold and the Nasdaq 100 technology index has dropped to zero. Over the last four years, this price relationship was positive, ranging from moderate (0.15) to strong (0.8). The indicator reached its maximum value during the bear market of 2022. Now, bitcoin has completely "broken away" from the Nasdaq, thanks to expectations of the ETF launch.
Experts from Fairlead Strategies, interviewed by the publication, spoke about the prospects of maintaining the "independence" of digital gold in the near future. This nullification of correlation could signify the potential use of the first cryptocurrency as a means of diversifying investment portfolios. "We believe that the price correlation will remain low in the coming months, given the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and the halving in April. Furthermore, risk assets generally exhibit lower correlation in bull markets compared to bear markets," the experts explained.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– On Tuesday, January 2, the price of bitcoin rose above $45,860 as investors anticipated a statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. The last time BTC traded at this level was in April 2022.
Analysts at Matrixport suggest that the primary cryptocurrency could surpass $50,000 in the coming days. The main drivers of the digital gold's price increase will be the potential approval of spot BTC-ETFs, demand from financial institutions, and a shortage of coin supply in the market. "Institutional investors cannot afford to miss another potential rally. Therefore, they must buy immediately," the experts shared their forecast. In their view, regulators might announce the approval of new exchange-traded products "today or tomorrow, ahead of most investors' expectations." This will serve as a powerful factor in the price growth of the leading cryptocurrency. 

– Wall Street investment giants BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, along with Valkyrie and Bitwise, companies specializing in crypto asset operations, have announced in their press releases their readiness to launch spot ETFs on bitcoin. Bitwise and BlackRock, in particular, have formed initial capital for trading operations, amounting to $200 million and $10 million respectively. These companies have disclosed key details of their future trades, including trading chains, partnerships with key brokerage firms, and the commission rates their potential ETF partners will charge clients, pending the green light from the SEC.
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, opines that the investment corporations' proposals are largely similar. He anticipates that the competitive battle among BTC-ETF issuers will primarily revolve around fee structures, brand history, and customer preferences.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor previously remarked that the approval of BTC-ETF, which the entire crypto industry is eagerly awaiting, could be the most significant event for the American stock market in the last three decades.

– Analysts at the platform Immunefi have calculated that, compared to 2022, when the total stolen funds amounted to $3.9 billion, this year's figures have more than halved – by 54.2%. In total, due to hacks and fraud, the crypto industry suffered losses of $1.8 billion in 2023. Researchers have tallied that $1.69 billion in losses were attributed to 219 hacking attacks, and about $103,000 was lost in 100 cases of fraud. The biggest losses were incurred in November ($343 million), September ($340 million), and July ($320 million).
It's worth noting that the Immunefi project manages a fund of $135 million for payments to "white hat" hackers who find vulnerabilities in decentralized financial platforms (DeFi).

– The new President of Argentina, Javier Milei, has proposed the legalization of digital asset circulation. He assured that once the bill is passed, citizens will be able to own and trade cryptocurrencies regardless of their origin and the actual location of coin storage. This digital currency legalization program is part of the economic reforms proposed by Javier Milei.
According to the new law, crypto assets that Argentine citizens voluntarily report by March 31 will be subject to a 5% tax rate. By November 30, the tax level will be increased to 15%. Subsequently, if the fiscal authorities discover undeclared cryptocurrency assets, the settlement of requirements may be accompanied by the imposition of an increased tax rate and additional penal sanctions.

– While the majority of crypto market participants view the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as an exclusively positive event for BTC, some experts believe otherwise. Analysts at the platform CryptoQuant think that with the launch of this financial instrument, the main cryptocurrency's price could drop from its current levels to $32,000. CryptoQuant noted that the market is factoring in a 90% probability of these ETFs being approved in early January. This reflects investors' optimism about the instrument but at the same time creates a classic "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario.
"The likelihood of the ETF approval becoming a catalyst for selling on the news is increasing, as market participants have a large unrealized profit. For short-term bitcoin holders, it's about 30%, which historically precedes a price correction," the company asserts.
Analysts also highlighted the influence of miners' behaviour. Due to the recent rise in BTC's price, they have shifted back to active selling and could significantly impact the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency's price.

– Cathy Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, also anticipates the possibility of a short-term sell-off. However, she remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of bitcoin. "A sell-off upon the news wouldn't be a surprise. But I believe it will be a very short-term phenomenon," Wood concluded. The head of ARK also noted the significant impact on bitcoin's price that even modest institutional investments can have. Her opinion is based on the scarcity of BTC and the expected inflow of institutional funds into the asset following the approval of ETFs.

– Analysts at the crypto exchange BIT share a similar view. They believe that bitcoin will continue to grow despite the "buy the rumor, sell the news" mindset. Even if the launch of the ETF causes a short-term sell-off, the combination of buyer pressure and the reduction in supply following the halving will lay the foundation for an extremely bullish 2024, potentially leading to the establishment of a new all-time high (ATH).

– Nic Carter, a financing partner at Castle Island Ventures, aligns with Cathy Wood's perspective. He believes that the ETF will unlock new classes of capital, fostering structural flows that will benefit the BTC market. Carter also thinks that in the context of the ETF launch, even the halving event seems less significant.

– Bitcoin futures indicate a bullish trend for the spring of 2024. Data from Binance futures contracts, expiring on March 29th, show that the annualized price of bitcoin is currently exceeding 20%. When futures trade at a higher price than the spot price, this situation is referred to as "contango". This condition suggests that the market expects the price of the asset to rise by the time the contract expires. According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, the difference between the spot price and the future price of BTC has increased to a record high level.

– A special agent from the FBI office in Alabama, USA, informed FOX News journalists that in 2023, around 300 state residents who fell victim to fraudulent cryptocurrency operations lost an average of $170,000 each. Matt Tootle observed that the greatest danger was posed by schemes involving the theft of digital assets using methods of so-called social engineering.
"We see cases where fraudsters spend months developing seemingly decent relationships with their future victims. For example, they create fake internet resources, showing victims the balance of their assets and the profitability of investing in cryptocurrencies. In some cases, to encourage the aggrieved investors to continue funding or make a large money transfer, fraudsters allow the victim to witness the 'effectiveness' of the crypto project and even withdraw a portion of the funds," the special agent explained. As a result, victims realize that they have lost all their money only weeks or months after the initial 'investment'. 

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a gold enthusiast, shared his forecast for 2024 in a series of tweets. "Investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve has managed to restore price stability without causing a recession, achieving a miraculous soft landing," wrote Schiff. "The big surprise in 2024 will be not only that the economy falls into a recession, but also that high inflation returns with doubled force."
"More importantly," Schiff notes, "technical indicators are collapsing... The Fed plans to lower interest rates, which will not only accelerate the downturn but also exert new upward pressure on inflation." In his view, "this not only indicates a weak and troubled economy but also foretells a significant fall in the dollar exchange rate and a rise in prices for imported goods in 2024." According to the financier, this situation does not bode well for bitcoin. Recall that Schiff has previously stated that there is "nothing more low-quality than cryptocurrencies," and "bitcoin is nothing." He also compared asset holders to a cult. "No one needs bitcoin. People buy it only after others convince them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to attract others to it." In his words, "it's like a cult."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Brian Armstrong, the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, published an article filled with numerous statistical data. Following a significant market correction this year, the value of cryptocurrencies increased by 90%, accompanied by a 60% increase in trading volume in the fourth quarter (Q4). Armstrong highlighted that currently, 425 million people worldwide own cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 83% of the G20 member countries and major financial centres have either implemented or are in the process of developing regulations for the industry.
He emphasized that over 100,000 merchants and payment systems worldwide now accept payments in cryptocurrencies, including companies like PayPal and Visa. Armstrong also referenced a report by Circle, according to which the volume of international settlements in stablecoins over the last year exceeded $7 trillion. This indicates that stablecoins are assisting fiat currencies like the US dollar to exist in digital form.
In countries with underdeveloped economies, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Nigeria, cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly popular among the population. People living and working abroad use cryptocurrencies for money transfers. Crypto transfers are on average 96% cheaper than traditional methods and take 10 minutes instead of 10 days, as mentioned in Armstrong's article. Even major financial hubs, London, Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore are transforming into crypto centres to expand employment opportunities in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector.
Brian Armstrong underscored that cryptocurrencies provide people with economic freedom by giving them access to their own money and allowing them to fully participate in the economy, regardless of the limitations of powerful, but outdated, financial companies. 

– Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), published a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 22, addressing the industry's non-compliance with regulations. "There are numerous violations in the cryptocurrency sphere," the post read. "It's a breach of trust resulting in many people being harmed. All they can do is wait for the court to declare them bankrupt."
The community instantly reacted to the SEC head's statement, emphasizing that they had long requested the regulator to clarify the specific rules they need to comply with. It is known that Coinbase, the largest American cryptocurrency exchange, has been striving for years to get clarity from the SEC on industry regulations.
Billy Markus, the founder of Dogecoin, stated that the SEC Chairman had not established real rules. Markus went on to describe Gensler as "useless in every respect." Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, also commented on Gensler's post. He characterized it as "staggering hypocrisy" and called Gensler "politically accountable" for undermining the integrity of the SEC's requirements.
On the same day, the SEC issued a new statement, expressing "deep regret" over some mistakes made by the Commission during enforcement proceedings. Paul Grewal, the Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase, pointed out that the SEC's "regrets" about its mistakes do not negate the fact that its chairman is "intimidating the entire American industry." From a legal standpoint, these regrets hold no significance for any taxpayer or judge.

– Jan van Eck, the head of the eponymous company that also applied to launch a spot BTC-ETF, gave an interview to CNBC. "I cannot imagine any other asset overtaking bitcoin," he stated. Jan van Eck views the first cryptocurrency as the best means of saving and expects BTC to reach a record high in the next 12 months. "Bitcoin has 50 million users. It's an obvious asset that is growing right before our eyes," he declared. The head of VanEck also dismissed the idea that bitcoin is a "bubble." The businessman explained that an asset that consistently surpasses its previous highs in each upward trend simply cannot be considered "inflated."

– Bitcoin will end the year as one of the most profitable assets, largely due to the excitement surrounding applications for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leading cryptocurrency, having grown by more than 163%, outperformed traditional assets, only falling behind semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose stocks more than doubled amid the artificial intelligence wave.
Kaiko Research analysts believe that this year's bitcoin price dynamics can be divided into three phases: an early rally from cyclical lows, a mid-year pause, and a year-end rally, indicating the development of a new bull market.
Kaiko points out that bitcoin has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation, a digital alternative to gold, or a completely new asset. However, for most of its history, its price was significantly tied to macroeconomic conditions, the strength of the dollar, and stocks. This year marked a change when bitcoin began losing its correlation with stock indices, including the Nasdaq 100. The most rapid decoupling occurred recently, when the asset surpassed the $40,000 mark, the analysts note.

– According to the forecast of Brandon Zemp, CEO of the consulting firm BlockHash, 2024 will be a favorable year for bitcoin, the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, and the adoption of regulations for crypto-assets.
Zemp, the author of "The Future Economy: A Crypto Insider’s Guide to the Tech Dismantling Traditional Banking," mentioned the collapse of the FTX exchange, the bankruptcy of crypto lenders, and the downfall of some stablecoins. He believes that the failure of crypto projects was facilitated by investors themselves, who bought colourful JPEG-format NFTs and trusted developers creating useless software.
"The good news is that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and wrongdoers are constantly being pushed out of the market. A bullish trend is again on the horizon, and it may be more stable as bad players have been removed from the scene," the head of BlockHash declared. He expressed hope that in 2024, U.S. legislators will be able to bring regulatory clarity to the crypto market. "I would not like everything to be decided in courts. I am hopeful that next year a cryptocurrency bill will be passed. Otherwise, regulators will continue to sink their teeth into the industry, and cryptocurrencies will continue to resist," added Zemp.

– Analysts at the analytical company IntoTheBlock reported that hodlers hold a record number of bitcoins and Ethereum. IntoTheBlock classifies as hodlers those who have kept digital assets for at least a year. According to their data, as of December 24, hodlers owned 70% of the circulating bitcoins and 74% of Ethereum. The chart suggests that hodlers began accumulating coins as early as 2022. In such a market situation, a supply shock could occur. In this case, an increase in the value of digital assets would be inevitable, even with a constant level of demand.
IntoTheBlock experts also noted that this year Ethereum lags behind bitcoin in terms of price growth. Since January 1, BTC has increased in price by 163%, while ETH has risen only by 90%. Considering the increasing number of Ethereum blockchain users, analysts believe that in 2024, this altcoin will appreciate more than bitcoin.

– The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that it has not changed its stance and continues to advocate for a complete ban on the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and a tradable commodity. High-ranking government officials have indicated that the central bank sees no significant benefits in issuing licenses to cryptocurrency companies. According to central bank representatives, private cryptocurrencies threaten India's macroeconomic stability, violate the country's monetary sovereignty, expose consumers to risks, and facilitate illegal activities, including money laundering and financing terrorism. Officials assert that, at best, crypto assets should be viewed as gambling.
However, the RBI considers it prudent to launch its own digital currency, as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would be another tool to stimulate the rapid development of the digital economy. The Reserve Bank of India is confident that a digital rupee will provide consumer protection and serve as an alternative to private cryptocurrencies.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, made three key forecasts for 2024. His first prediction is based on the actions of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which are expected to introduce their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This, he believes, will lead to the demise of the US dollar. According to Kiyosaki, bitcoin and precious metals may benefit from this, as investors shift their funds into these assets. "The US dollar will die. Trillions of dollars will return home. Inflation will skyrocket. Buy gold, silver. Next year bitcoin will shoot up to $120,000," Kiyosaki declared.
His second forecast suggests that traditional investors, who usually allocate 60% of their funds in bonds and 40% in stocks, will face significant losses in 2024. To safeguard themselves, he recommended reallocating 75% of their portfolio into gold, silver, and bitcoins, and investing the remaining 25% in real estate or oil stocks.
Finally, Kiyosaki's third and last prediction is a stark warning about the severity of the upcoming market crash. Rejecting the idea of a soft landing, he asserts that a crash landing is more likely, which could lead to a full-scale economic depression. 

– American venture capitalist Tim Draper has speculated that the value of bitcoin might significantly surpass the $250,000 mark in the upcoming year. He believes the route to widespread adoption of this premier cryptocurrency will be paved through stablecoins. Draper explained his confidence in bitcoin's potential, recalling his belief in the cryptocurrency even when it was valued at $4,000. He attributed the slower-than-expected growth of bitcoin to the apprehensions of a rigid U.S. government, acknowledging his underestimation of the United States' conservative stance.
Draper, an avid supporter of smart contracts, envisions a future where all financial dealings, including investments, payments, salary disbursements, and tax transactions, could be conducted in bitcoin. He anticipates that stablecoins will act as a critical transitional tool, facilitating bitcoin's mass acceptance. "Stablecoins will remain functional as long as the dollar retains its viability. However, as the dollar's influence wanes, I foresee a shift where people will gravitate towards bitcoin," Draper predicted.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States is expected to approve the first spot bitcoin ETFs around January 8-10. This opinion was expressed by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. In his view, the SEC has been strategically delaying applications for the instrument to approve most of them simultaneously, thereby not giving an advantage to any single issuer. This is why Seyffart is confident in the mass approval of requests in January. An additional argument in favour of approving bitcoin ETFs is Grayscale's court victory against the SEC in August. Seyffart stated that the Commission has been "cornered by the judges."

– The CEO of investment firm VanEck, Jan Van Eck, believes that the first cryptocurrency holds an advantage over other digital assets in its role as a store of value. In an interview with CNBC, he stated that bitcoin possesses unique properties that make it unmatched in the realm of internet finance and has already become a viable alternative to gold. Van Eck also dismissed the idea that bitcoin is a "bubble," arguing that an asset consistently surpassing its previous highs on each new upward trend cannot be considered "inflated."
According to the businessman, the coin is expected to reach a new all-time high within the next 12 months. Regarding the bitcoin ETFs for which 13 companies, including VanEck, have applied, he, like James Seyffart, speculated that the SEC will approve all ETFs simultaneously.

– Legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has identified a "rising wedge" technical pattern on the Ethereum price chart, traditionally seen as a precursor to a bearish trend reversal. According to this model, Brandt suggested that the price of the largest altcoin might decrease to $1,000 and possibly further to $650. He also revealed that he took a short position on this asset on December 15. Despite his forecast, Brandt stressed that price chart patterns are not infallible and may not always behave as predicted in theory.
Brandt previously expressed his view that Ethereum cannot rival Bitcoin as a store of value, questioning the rationale of holding ETH over BTC. He predicts that within ten years, the altcoin will no longer be traded on exchanges, citing the high transaction fees associated with ETH as a significant drawback.
(Background note: Brandt brings over four decades of experience in financial markets and is the creator of Factor Trading, a platform offering expert reports and asset price chart analysis.).

– Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has described the leading cryptocurrency as an asset capable of transforming investment strategies globally. He believes that "bitcoin will either fall to zero or soar to $1 million." If the first cryptocurrency continues to gain the trust of financial institutions, its price is likely to rise rapidly. Saylor highlighted bitcoin's unique advantages as a digital asset: its decentralized nature, limited supply of 21 million coins, and increasing adoption worldwide.
Saylor acknowledged that his "zero or million" forecast underscores the volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market. He noted that most institutions currently underestimate bitcoin. If it is on the path to becoming a primary asset in institutional portfolios, the current level of investment in bitcoin is insufficient. However, an increasing number of institutions are beginning to shift their investment strategies, aiming to increase their bitcoin holdings in anticipation of long-term growth.

– Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of the early developers of bitcoin, compared the last few years to a biblical plague epidemic. He mentioned COVID-19, the quantitative easing of monetary policy by central banks, wars affecting the cost of electricity, and inflation leading to bankruptcies among individuals and companies.
Back observed that as 2023 comes to an end, the impacts of many of these events have subsided. "The bankruptcies of companies related to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX... all of that is largely over. I don’t think we're in for many more big surprises," he stated. Back anticipates that 2024 will be a year of recovery for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is expected to react to the upcoming halving in April, potentially reaching a price of $100,000 even before the event.

– The shocking payment of a $4.3 billion fine imposed by the U.S. Department of Justice on the major cryptocurrency exchange Binance last month was not the end of its troubles. Two more cases have been opened against the platform.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the U.S. accused Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ) and Binance itself of illegal operations in the country. In this proceeding, the exchange agreed to pay another substantial fine of $2.7 billion, while former CEO CZ personally will have to pay $150 million. As a result, Binance has already been penalized by American authorities to the staggering amount of $7 billion. However, there's still a conflict to be resolved with the SEC, and it's unlikely that the amounts involved in this case will be smaller than those with the CFTC and the Department of Justice.

– In early December, Binance conducted a survey involving users from the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. U.S. citizens were understandably not surveyed. The survey found that 45% of the exchange's users consider cryptocurrencies a means of earning additional income. Over a third of the respondents (36%) engage in cryptocurrency transactions weekly. Of these, 58% use cryptocurrencies for online purchases, 12% for international transactions and money transfers, and another 12% pay for in-store purchases with cryptocurrencies. 59% of the respondents have been involved in cryptocurrencies for 1 to 5 years, 14% have been in the market for over five years, and only 12% have been dealing with crypto assets for less than six months.
Survey participants also shared the positive impact of cryptocurrencies on their lives. A majority of them – 76% – are confident that cryptocurrencies can provide financial equality in society.

– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has warned that deepfakes pose a serious and real threat to the crypto community. He cited an example of a YouTube video created using artificial intelligence, where a pseudo-Hoskinson discusses an upcoming giveaway in ADA. The AI skilfully replicates the real Hoskinson's intonations and speech manner, giving the impression of a live broadcast.
Cybersecurity experts say that deepfake technology has advanced to the point where it can be used online, allowing fraudsters to mimic someone's voice, image, and movements during a conversation or virtual meeting. They point out that this technology is widely available, relatively easy to use, and continually improving.
For reference: ADA is the native cryptocurrency of Cardano, named after Ada Lovelace, a 19th-century English mathematician recognized as one of the first computer programmers. She is particularly known for her work in 1842 on a computational machine.

– Chainalysis analysts have identified at least 1,013 addresses involved in targeted phishing scams. Phishing is a type of fraud where criminals send emails or SMS messages asking the recipient to click on a link or log into their account. Perpetrators often impersonate representatives of exchanges or digital wallets. In 2022, victims of phishing lost approximately $517 million, while in 2023, thefts totalling around $375 million have been recorded so far. The record for a single phishing incident is a theft of $44 million.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– On the morning of December 11, bitcoin fell sharply to $40,145. This abrupt decline lasted no more than five minutes. Multiple theories explain this event. One suggests that strong U.S. job market data released on December 8 triggered the drop. Alternatively, it could have been a result of someone's nerves giving way, a technical glitch, or a trading error in transaction size by a platform, trading robot, or trader, which led to cascade stop-loss execution in futures trading. Coinglass data indicates that over 24 hours, long positions amounting to more than $400 million were liquidated, including $85.5 million in bitcoin.
Since mid-August, the growth has been about 85%, and more than 160% since the start of the year. Thus, some analysts believe that a major player might have decided to secure profits ahead of the year's end. Two days before this event, the head of DecenTrader, known as FibFilb, warned, "We have grown significantly this year, and a correction is expected. […] It's been overdue," he declared on December 9. 

– Trader and analyst Michael Van De Poppe, founder of Eight, encouraged the community not to worry, noting that corrections, particularly deep ones, are common in the illiquid altcoin market. After recent events, he updated his bitcoin forecast, identifying the key support zone at $36,500-$38,000. He believes bitcoin's momentum is waning and anticipates Ethereum will outperform in the upcoming quarter.
Crypto expert William Clemente also isn't concerned about the bitcoin price drop, viewing it as inevitable. He argues that such corrections set the stage for the next bullish trend by eliminating overleveraged long positions.

– EQI Bank's director, Eli Taranto, agrees with Van De Poppe's prediction and also foresees a decline in bitcoin's value. He noted that as traders secure profits and await decisions on ETF applications, bitcoin's price will continue to fluctuate, subject to the butterfly effect, where minor influences can have significant and unpredictable consequences. Taranto specifically suggested a potential fall in BTC's price to $39,000.

– In early December, El Salvador launched a program offering residency and a chance for citizenship for a $1 million investment via bitcoin or USDT. The "Salvadoran Freedom Visa," in partnership with Tether, is limited to 1,000 participants. If fully subscribed, it will bring $1 billion into the country, with plans to expand the program further.
El Salvador's offer is notably more expensive than similar programs in nearby Caribbean countries like Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, and Saint Lucia, which start at $100,000. Alistair Milne, founder of Altana Digital Currency hedge fund, criticized the program as uncompetitive, highlighting that some EU countries offer citizenship for less, like Malta's €750,000 (~$810,000) option.
However, early interest is evident, as 153 individuals have already applied for the Salvadoran program despite Milne's scepticism.

– CryptoQuant experts suggest the possibility of bitcoin breaking the $50,000 mark in early 2024, as reported by The Block. This forecast is based on analysing the activity of digital gold holders and includes transaction volume dynamics, market capitalization, and Metcalfe's law in the context of cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin could aim for the [$50,000-$53,000] range," the experts noted. However, CryptoQuant believes the market is nearing an "overheated bullish phase," historically followed by pauses and corrections. They highlighted that over 88% of coin supply is "in profit," indicating potential seller pressure and likely short-term corrections, often aligning with local peaks historically.

– The ongoing discussion revolves around a law proposed by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren to tighten control over cryptocurrency transactions. In December 2022, Warren suggested equating crypto companies with financial institutions regulated under the Bank Secrecy Act, requiring digital asset entities to adhere to the same requirements as banks. Her drafted "Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act" mandates customer identification for crypto platforms. However, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research argues this is impractical for decentralized platforms lacking user verification capabilities, potentially leading to an effective ban on bitcoin in the U.S. Neeraj Agrawal, CEO of Coin Center, criticizes the bill as an attack on technological progress and privacy, urging it not to proceed in the Senate. Many experts believe the bill has little chance of passing; during her 11-year career, only a small fraction of Warren's 330 drafted bills have been enacted, mostly as parts of other laws, with only one passing unchanged – a minor law concerning flag display rules on U.S. federal property.

¬– The governments of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan have started developing joint measures to combat North Korean hackers who attack cryptocurrency projects. These hackers use the stolen funds to finance weapons of mass destruction programs, including nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, with damages amounting to billions of dollars. The largest incident in the industry's history was the $625 million hack of the Ronin sidechain of Axie Infinity by the Lazarus group. Additionally, the U.S. is investigating cryptocurrency use by terrorists, with calls in the Senate to hold companies like Binance and Tether accountable for facilitating transfers to illegal groups. Subsequently, Tether voluntarily froze all wallets on the sanction list.

– The $4.3 billion fine did not resolve Binance's issues. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to accuse Binance of illegal securities trading and other violations. U.S. Department of Justice officials intend to thoroughly scrutinize the trading platform's activities for compliance with legal norms. Binance is required to grant continuous access to its documents and records, including employee, agent, intermediary, consultant, partner, contractor, and trader information, to the Department of Justice, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and other financial regulators and law enforcement agencies. John Reed Stark, former head of the SEC, mockingly referred to this scrutiny as a "financial colonoscopy."

– Goldman Sachs investment banking experts released a report on the global economy, including the cryptocurrency market. They predict bitcoin prices may soon rise, driven by anticipated approvals of spot BTC-ETFs, the upcoming halving of mining rewards, and falling yields of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds. Importantly, in 2024, when the Federal Reserve begins a cycle of lowering interest rates, bitcoin could receive an additional bullish boost. The analysts explain that lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, thereby encouraging risk-taking in both the economy and financial markets, including in the cryptocurrency sector. This outlook contrasts with the scenario of rapid rate increases seen in 2022.

– Analyst using the pseudonym Doctor Profit has thoroughly analysed bitcoin's growth cycles. In his view, digital gold goes through five key phases that illustrate the overall dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Doctor Profit believes that the foundation of the new bull market was laid in the price range of $16,000 to $25,000. According to the analyst, at this stage, investor sentiment is changing, laying the groundwork for an upcoming upward trend, and the market is gradually preparing for dynamic changes.
The next phase covers the range from $25,000 to $38,500: this marks a period of market recovery. Bitcoin holders' activity and optimism are on the rise, paving the way for subsequent stages. As the market gains momentum, BTC enters the third phase, with its price fluctuating between $38,500 and $48,000. This trend is significant in shaping expectations for the future, as investors seek to capitalize on dynamic price changes, and the crypto market enters a period of increased activity.
According to Doctor Profit's analysis, the fourth, "golden" phase will commence within the price range of $48,000 to $69,000. It is at this stage that the market surges to its peak values, and investor euphoria reaches its zenith. Finally, the fifth phase arrives. The peak of the previous bull market, around $69,000, heralds the beginning of bitcoin's super-cycle, during which the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach historic highs.
However, despite all the optimism, Doctor Profit cautions that before transitioning to the next phase, a significant correction of 20-30% awaits the leading cryptocurrency.

– Thirteen years ago, on December 12, 2010, the creator of the first cryptocurrency under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published his final post on the forum before disappearing from the public eye. The message gave no hint of the departure of this enigmatic figure (or figures). It contained a description of an update and code for elements of Denial-of-Service (DoS) control in protocol version 0.3.19. This was a time when digital gold was trading at $0.20, and as Satoshi himself and other users noted, the network "was not at all resistant to DoS attacks."
In the time leading up to his disappearance, Satoshi faced disagreements within the developer community, which escalated from forum discussions. He was often criticized for exerting excessive control over the project and making unilateral decisions. Apparently, the founder of the blockchain had planned to leave the team in advance. Therefore, before disappearing, he handed control of the protocol over to the community, with developer Gavin Andresen at the helm. (For reference: Gavin Andresen is currently the Chief Scientist of the Bitcoin Foundation. He has access to an alert key that allows him to broadcast messages about critical network issues to all clients.)
"Satoshi's contribution to decentralization and his fight against financial dictatorship are more than just a technological marvel. It is a movement for economic freedom and sovereignty. His disappearance is not just an act of self-preservation but also a reminder that not everything in life revolves around personal fame," wrote one of the users on the BitcoinTalk forum, remembering the last post of the creator of the first cryptocurrency.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– On the night of December 5 to 6, the flagship cryptocurrency reached a peak of $44,464. The last time BTC traded above $40,000 was in April 2022, before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem triggered a massive crypto market downturn. The current positive sentiments in the market are linked to the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated that the approval of these fund launches is likely to occur between January 5 and 10. Among other reasons for the rise in BTC are the increasing network hash rate and investor optimism regarding the recovery of the U.S. economy. Investor hopes are also fuelled by upcoming changes in crypto industry regulations.

– Bitcoin's price is expected to surpass the $100,000 level even before the upcoming halving in April 2024, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back. The cryptocurrency industry veteran noted that his forecast does not take into account a potential bullish impulse in the event of the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regarding the long-term movement of digital gold quotes, the entrepreneur agreed with the opinion of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts a range of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.
For reference: Adam Back is a British businessman, a cryptography expert, and a cypherpunk. It is known that Back corresponded with Satoshi Nakamoto, and a reference to his publication is included in the description of the bitcoin system. Adam Back, who had not previously made public price forecasts for BTC, garnered significant attention from many members of the crypto community due to these statements.

– Ledger's CEO Pascal Gauthier, Lightspark's Chief Marcus David, and CoinDCX's top executive Vijay Ayyar also anticipate the bitcoin price to reach $100,000 in 2024. They shared this outlook in an interview with CNBC. "It seems that 2023 was a year of preparation for the upcoming growth. The sentiments towards 2024 and 2025 are very promising," stated Pascal Gauthier.
"A number of market participants expect bullish growth sometime after the halving, but considering the news about ETFs, we could very well start seeing growth before that," believes Vijay Ayyar. However, in his opinion, a "complete rejection of ETF could disrupt this process," and this is something that should always be kept in mind.

– Cardano's leader, Charles Hoskinson, ridiculed CoinDesk's annual list of "Most Influential Personalities in the World of Cryptocurrency." According to Hoskinson's calculations, "appearing on Coindesk's most influential list carries an 18 percent chance of a prison sentence." Since Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has topped this list four times, he has a very high chance of ending up behind bars.
Previously, leaders of crypto projects who now face legal issues were included in this prestigious list. This includes the founder of the collapsed Terra project, Do Kwon, and the former CEO of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried. According to observations by Hoskinson and other prominent figures who appeared on the CoinDesk list multiple times, they have encountered legal problems.
Some members of the crypto community responded to Cardano's leader, suggesting that he might be envied for not being on this list. It's worth noting that last year, Hoskinson expressed displeasure with CoinDesk for not including him in the top 100 most influential figures in the cryptocurrency industry and for not mentioning him in surveys over the eight years.

– Jim Lee, Chief of Internal Revenue Service, Criminal Investigation (IRS), has stated that investigations related to cryptocurrency occupy more than 50% of the agency's working hours. While almost 90% of cases were related to money laundering three years ago, last year, over half of various tax violations were related to failure to report income from capital gains in cryptocurrency or mining, as well as concealing ownership of crypto assets.
"The desire to evade cryptocurrency taxes spans a wide range of taxpayers, from individuals to various levels of corporate institutions intentionally not disclosing their cryptocurrency income. Therefore, the IRS Criminal Investigation Division is forced to initiate an increasing number of cases of tax crimes involving crypto assets every year," lamented the official.
Jim Lee reminded that cryptocurrency is subject to taxation, and failure to pay or report accurate information about crypto income to the authorities can result in both penalty sanctions and imprisonment for up to five years.

– According to the well-known bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser, bitcoin may soon surpass the $150,000 mark and continue to rise. Keiser shared that, according to unconfirmed rumours, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Qatar is preparing to enter the crypto market with massive investments, intending to allocate up to $500 billion into the leading cryptocurrency. "This will be a seismic shift in the cryptocurrency landscape," believes Keiser.
He noted that, in his observations, many major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Bakkt, JP Morgan, and others are gearing up to launch crypto products. These products could potentially encourage institutional investors, including hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, to invest in digital assets.

– Not all influencers are confident in the optimistic prospects of BTC's value growth and strongly recommend exercising maximum caution when it comes to cryptocurrency investments. For instance, one of the prominent public crypto sceptics and advocate for physical gold, Peter Schiff, is certain that the speculative frenzy surrounding bitcoin ETFs will soon come to an end, and the collapse of bitcoin will be more impressive than its recent rallies.

– Renowned analyst Ali Martinez believes that if Ethereum closes above $2,150 for the week, this altcoin could pave the way for an upward movement with a target level of $2,600, and possibly even up to $3,500. These targets are determined by Martinez based on the analysis of graphic patterns.
Martinez also notes that approximately 5.85 million crypto wallets hold 43.8 million ETH acquired at prices ranging from $1,900 to $2,100. Therefore, this range could become a "significant support level for years to come."

– Military forces should prioritize the study of the underlying algorithm of bitcoin, Proof-of-Work (PoW), to ensure the defense capability of the country, according to U.S. Space Force Major and author of the book "Softwar," Jason Lowery. In an open letter to the Defense Innovation Board of the U.S. Department of Defense, he highlighted that the issue holds "national strategic significance." According to him, the blockchain of the first cryptocurrency is not only a "monetary system" but also provides the foundation for securing "all forms of data, messages, or command signals."

– Bloomberg Intelligence's Senior Macro Strategist, Mike McGlone, asserts that currently, bitcoin exhibits much greater strength than gold. The expert noted that on December 4th, the price of gold reached a record high, fuelled by investors' expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Subsequently, gold declined by 5.1%, while bitcoin continued to rise, surpassing $44,000.
However, the analyst cautioned that bitcoin's volatility may hinder its ability to trade reliably, similar to physical gold, during periods of "risk aversion." According to McGlone, for bitcoin to compete with the precious metal as an alternative asset, it must establish key reliability indicators. These include achieving a negative correlation of BTC with the stock market and attaining a high deficit during periods of money supply growth.

– Alejandro Cao de Benos was detained at the Madrid railway station. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, in April 2019, Benos demonstrated to North Korean officials how a state could use cutting-edge technologies for money laundering and evading international sanctions. Before his arrest, the Spaniard had been on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) most-wanted list for over a year, hiding in Barcelona under a fictitious name.
As a supporter of the North Korean regime, in 2000, Benos founded the Korea Friendship Association and appeared in documentaries about North Korea. The U.S. Department of Justice claims that Benos began planning a blockchain conference in North Korea in 2018. Among its participants was former Ethereum developer Virgil Griffith, who was also arrested for involvement in the event. In 2022, Griffith was sentenced to five years in prison.
On Friday, December 1, Benos appeared before the High Court of Spain. He refuted the charges brought by the U.S. prosecution, deeming them false. The man faces up to 20 years of imprisonment in a U.S. prison, but extradition proceedings have not yet begun.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– The share of bitcoins potentially yielding profit has reached 83.7% of the total supply. This is the highest figure since November 2021, according to a report from Bitfinex analysts. Meanwhile, market activity is low. Experts have noted that coin owners are reluctant to sell, and buyers are not actively seeking them. "One reason for this is that the actual size of unrealized profits remains modest," added Bitfinex.
According to analysts, the ratio between short-term and long-term holders of digital gold is shifting in favor of the latter. The active supply of bitcoin has fallen to a five-year minimum: only 30% of coins have moved in the past year. Accordingly, approximately 70% of bitcoins, or "unprecedented" 16.3 million BTC, remained inactive throughout the year. At the same time, 60% of coins have remained motionless for two years. According to Bitfinex specialists, these indicators signify that the market is "in a relatively strong position" as coin owners see a positive return on their investments and are not in a hurry to liquidate assets.

–  As a result of the resolution of the U.S. authorities' claims against Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin is now poised to exceed $40,000 by the end of the year, according to statements from Matrixport. Various estimates suggested that Binance could face fines of up to $10 billion, with allegations of illegal misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation. However, on November 21, an agreement was reached, with the company agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities. Changpeng Zhao stepped down as CEO and posted a bail of $175 million to remain free. This outcome is considered by Matrixport experts as a "turning point in the crypto industry," indicating that Binance will likely retain its position among the largest crypto exchanges for at least the next two to three years.
In light of this news, Bitcoin initially experienced a temporary correction but then rebounded from $36,000. This confirmed a strong trend, and according to Matrixport experts, a rise above $40,000 in December appears "inevitable." However, they assess the probability of this "inevitable" outcome not at 100%, but at 90%. 

– During a speech before students in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, shared that despite "numerous warnings," her son invested in cryptocurrencies. However, the investments turned out to be unsuccessful, and he lost approximately 60% of the invested funds. Nevertheless, according to the head of the ECB, the investment amount was not very significant.
"He ignored my recommendations. Of course, it's his right. But when we talked about it next time, he admitted that I was right. I have a very negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies. People can invest in anything and speculate on anything. But they don't need to enable participation in various criminal and sanction-evading schemes and businesses," concluded Ms. Lagarde.

– The TRON (TRX) blockchain, created by the head of the cryptocurrency exchange HTX and Poloniex, Justin Sun, has reportedly surpassed bitcoin in popularity among terrorists, according to experts interviewed by Reuters. They claim that this is due to the higher transaction speed and lower cost of transactions. The TRON company stated that they do not control the users of the blockchain, adding that theoretically, any technology can be used for criminal activities.
Reuters-analysed experts also stated that the dominant asset in the TRON network is the stablecoin USDT from the company Tether. Tether has previously faced accusations of aiding fundraising for terrorists from US legislators. The company has denied these allegations, emphasizing its active participation in freezing suspicious funds, including in collaboration with Israeli authorities. It's worth noting that the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing in Israel froze 143 wallets on the TRON blockchain from July 2021 to October 2023.
However, journalists point out the difficulties in accurately assessing the amounts collected by terrorists in cryptocurrencies, and it is challenging to determine whether the assets in the frozen wallets were indeed intended for such groups.

– Specialists from the analytical company Santiment have noted an increase in the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. In November, bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index, on average, grew by 9.2%. The strengthening correlation was observed after bitcoin traded in a narrow price range in late October to early November, showing no significant fluctuations. According to historical data, if bitcoin continues to outpace stocks, it will once again disrupt the correlation, which is considered one of the factors for the formation of a bullish crypto market, according to Santiment.
On November 24, the price of the leading cryptocurrency reached $38,300 for the first time since May of the previous year, prompting bitcoin traders to start taking profits. This is indicated by the slowing growth of the number of wallets with a positive balance. From November 23 to 27, the indicator increased by only 0.25%, reaching 50.91 million wallets. 

– The trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael van de Poppe, predicts that a few weeks before the approval of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the coin's price may rise to $48,000. The expert anticipates that the bitcoin ETF will be approved by the SEC in the next five to six weeks. Consequently, the price of BTC could increase in December as investors seek to profit from the potential rally.
However, after approval, the price of the leading cryptocurrency may experience a sharp decline. The potential retracement target is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $26,500. Van de Poppe suggests that this downward trend may persist even after the upcoming halving. The analyst suspects that it is during this period that traders will actively accumulate coins, triggering the next bullish rise with a target ranging from $300,000 to $400,000.

– Strategists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that BTC could reach $50,000 this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024. The bank's initial forecast hinted at a potential surge to $100,000 but was later revised upward. The price of $120,000 is nearly three times the current value. The optimism from Standard Chartered's experts is linked to the increased profitability of mining when selling a smaller quantity of tokens to maintain the same cash flow volume, ultimately leading to price growth.

– The term "Bitcoin Santa Rally" is gaining popularity on social media platforms, fuelled by the impressive growth of the leading cryptocurrency by approximately 10% in November and 130% since the beginning of the year. This phenomenon echoes the historical "Santa Claus Rally" in the stock market when stocks surge between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
In the crypto market, a similar rally first occurred in late November 2013 when the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. Throughout December, the bitcoin price consistently rose, reaching a peak of $1,147 by December 23. The next significant surge happened during the holiday season in 2017. Bitcoin embarked on a steep upward trajectory, surpassing $19,000 by mid-December and touching $20,000 for the first time.
However, in 2021, Santa Claus didn't bring joy to crypto traders; the result was the opposite. On November 10, the asset reached an all-time high, approaching $69,000, but in December, the price was influenced by volatility and low trading volumes during the holiday season. By the end of the year, bitcoin was trading around $46,000.
Naturally, this year, members of the crypto community are hopeful for bitcoin's growth, as indicated by Google Trends data.

– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano (ADA), criticized the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for not classifying bitcoin as a security, thereby granting it "complete freedom of action," unlike other cryptocurrencies. According to Hoskinson, BTC is not as decentralized as the SEC believes: more than 51% of the hashing power can be controlled simply by taking the three largest mining pools to court.
In response, Blockstream CEO Adam Back explained to Hoskinson that the main reason is that bitcoin did not conduct an initial coin offering (ICO). "Bitcoin did not conduct an ICO. Most people thought it had no value. It was mined from scratch, it is decentralized, the project has no CEO. ICOs are what led regulators to demand registration from crypto companies. So ADA, Ethereum, and other crypto assets are considered securities under the Howey Test. And bitcoin is considered a commodity," stated Adam Back.
Hoskinson countered by stating that Cardano also did not conduct an ICO. According to him, the project simply distributed coins, and then thousands of people, who had never met before, began trading ADA on crypto exchanges and using the Cardano blockchain for their projects.

– The National Police Agency of South Korea has issued a warning about an increase in activity from North Korean hackers. Experts noted that the criminals are resorting to new sophisticated schemes, often posing as government officials and well-known journalists.
In 2023, North Korean hacking activity has shown a significant escalation in both scale and aggression. Unlike the previous year, where the primary focus was on the spread of ransomware programs, this year there is a shift towards more aggressive phishing attacks. In 2023, South Korean authorities halted the operations of more than 40 fictitious websites associated with cybercriminals. 

– Dan Tapiero, Managing Partner and CEO of 10T Holdings, is confident in the inevitable increase in the value of the world's first cryptocurrency. The businessman believes that bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive means of savings. "There are many things, such as real estate, that people often invest in. Art, paintings... And bitcoin really can become part of such asset lists."
According to Tapiero, the "next bull trend will come in 2025. And we will see bitcoin surpass $100,000." "I think that's a pretty conservative estimate," he added. The expert believes that negative interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds will serve as a special "mega-bull signal" for BTC.

– Former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, intends to withdraw funds invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and put them into cryptocurrency before the "Chinese printing press starts its monetary intervention."
According to his forecast, China will significantly increase its investment volumes in external markets. This monetary and credit expansion, combined with the weakening of the U.S. dollar, has the potential to benefit the cryptocurrency market. "Such a scenario will have a positive impact on the value of many risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The interchangeable nature of global fiat credit implies that capital from China may permeate adjacent financial markets and contribute to the increase in the value of digital assets such as bitcoin," explains the co-founder of BitMEX.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– The largest crypto exchange, Binance, has announced that it has reached a global agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in connection with their investigations into issues related to registration, compliance, and violations of anti-Russian sanctions.
As part of the agreement, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepped down from the position of CEO of the exchange as of November 21, 2023. Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, Binance will pay regulators and law enforcement authorities substantial amounts (approximately $7 billion) in fines and compensations to resolve charges and claims against them.
In addition to the financial settlement, Binance has agreed to completely withdraw from U.S. markets and will "adhere to a set of stringent sanctions compliance commitments." Furthermore, the exchange will be under the five-year observation of the U.S. Tresrey service with open access to its financial records, records, and systems.
While such a significant fine will heavily impact the company, experts view this decision unequivocally positively, considering the exchange's leading role. Representatives of Binance also stated their firm belief in both the crypto industry and the bright future of their company.

– Bittrex Global, another crypto exchange based in Liechtenstein, will cease all operations and halt trading on December 4th. The exchange's management strongly advises all customers to log into their accounts and withdraw their assets as soon as possible. Bittrex Global has already frozen its referral program and halted advertising campaigns.

– Scammers recently conducted another fake cryptocurrency giveaway impersonating Elon Musk. The campaign included live video streams on YouTube featuring a deepfake of Musk. The individual in the video spoke with a generated voice. Participants were initially required to send cryptocurrency to specified addresses to take part in the giveaway. They were promised to receive the cryptocurrency back to their wallets, but with a 200% bonus. According to experts from BitOK, even several well-known news outlets fell into the trap, sharing links to the fake broadcasts.

– Javier Milei, a libertarian and implicit supporter of bitcoin, emerged victorious in the second round of the presidential elections in Argentina. He will assume the presidency of the country on December 10.
Due to the economic crisis, the Argentine peso is rapidly depreciating, with inflation exceeding 140% over the last 12 months. Milei blames the central bank for the troubles affecting the state's residents, branding the agency's employees as fraudsters. He believes they devised a mechanism to deceive citizens through an inflation tax.
During the electoral campaign, Javier adeptly manipulated his positive statements about bitcoin, stating that, thanks to this cryptocurrency, "money will return to its creator – the private sector of the economy." However, the new head of Argentina has not yet declared his intention to recognize bitcoin as legal tender, following the example of President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador. Furthermore, he has advocated for a dollarization policy, entailing the replacement of the Argentine peso with the US dollar. 

– Can we expect a new significant downward correction from bitcoin? According to the well-known analyst Willy Woo, this is unlikely. He examined blockchain data reflecting the average purchase price of BTC by investors, based on which he concluded that the main cryptocurrency probably won't fall below $30,000 again.
Woo shared with readers a chart showing a dense gray band, indicating the price around which a significant portion of the bitcoin supply fluctuated at that time. According to Woo, this reflects "strong consensus value." The analyst claims that since the creation of bitcoin, this band has acted as reliable price support. Woo's chart shows that such bands have formed eight times throughout the entire existence of bitcoin and have always supported its price.
However, not everyone trusts Woo's calculations. For instance, an analyst using the pseudonym TXMC reminded that in 2021, Woo made a similar forecast, stating that bitcoin would never drop below $40,000. Yet, the following year saw precisely that happening.

– According to the calculations of several experts, the fundamental indicators of the cryptocurrency have never looked better. For instance, 70% of the existing supply of BTC has not moved from one wallet to another during this year, marking a record in bitcoin's history. Such withdrawal rates are extraordinary for a financial asset, as summarized by a group of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Another positive factor is the upcoming halving, which could reduce the monthly selling pressure from miners from $1 billion to $500 million (at today's BTC rate of $37,000).
Additionally, the potential approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is seen as a positive catalyst. This approval would facilitate large investors' access to the cryptocurrency. According to experts from Bernstein, against this backdrop, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $150,000 by the beginning of 2025.

– Apple users have filed a collective lawsuit against the tech giant, accusing it of unfair competition due to restrictions on cryptocurrency payments. The document filed in the California district court claims that Apple entered into a "secret agreement" with Venmo, PayPal, and Cash App to limit users' use of decentralized cryptocurrency technology in payment applications.
The plaintiffs also allege that Apple employs "technological and contractual restrictions," including hardware exclusivity in the App Store and "constraints on web browser technology," to "exercise unlimited control over each application installed and launched on iPhone and iPad." As a result, users are forced to pay higher trading commissions.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Apple has faced such lawsuits. The court ruling in the Epic Games lawsuit against Apple stated in April 2023 that software providers in the App Store are allowed to offer alternative payment options to avoid high commissions.

– Experts from the analytical company Glassnode highlight a continuous outflow of BTC coins from exchanges. The overall supply of the primary cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly scarce, and the circulating supply is currently at a historical minimum.
In a recent report by Glassnode, it is stated that 83.6% of all circulating bitcoins were acquired by current owners at a lower cost than the current market value. If this metric surpasses the 90% mark, it could indicate the beginning of the euphoria stage, where almost all market participants have unrealized profits.
According to analysts, statistically, these figures can help determine the current stage of the market. For instance, when less than 58% of all BTC coins are profitable, the market is considered to be in the bottom formation stage. Once the metric surpasses the 58% mark, the market transitions to the recovery stage, and above 90%, it enters the euphoria stage.
Glassnode believes that over the past ten months, the market has been in the second of these three stages, recovering from a series of negative events in 2022, such as the collapse of the Luna project and the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 20 - 24, 2023

EUR/USD: November 14 - a Dark Day for the Dollar


In the previous review, the overwhelming majority of experts expressed opinions favouring further weakening of the American currency. This prediction came to fruition. The Consumer Inflation report in the United States, published on Tuesday, November 14, toppled the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact, including on the dynamics of EUR/USD, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle, rising nearly 200 points.

It is noteworthy that exactly a year ago, after the release of data on October inflation, U.S. bond yields plummeted, stock indices soared, and the dollar significantly declined against major world currencies. And history repeated itself. This time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for October decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%: the lowest level since September 2021.

In reality, a 0.1% drop in inflation is not that significant. However, the market's strong reaction demonstrated how overbought the dollar was. As analysts at ING (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) write, a powerful bullish trend in Q3 this year led to a 4.9% increase in the dollar. Keeping the dollar strong was easy due to the high interest rates and increased yields of U.S. Treasury bonds.

But everything comes to an end at some point. The data released on November 14 confirmed the weakening of inflationary pressure and convinced the market that the Federal Reserve (FRS) would no longer raise the key interest rate. Moreover, market participants now do not rule out that the regulator may shift to easing its monetary policy not in the middle of next summer but as early as the spring of the following year. ING economists believe that the onset of a recession in the U.S. will compel the FRS to cut the rate by 150 basis points in Q2 2024. According to MUFG Bank, the probability of a rate cut in May 2024 is now 80%, in March – 30%. Such a reduction will halt the dollar's bullish rally, support so-called commodity currencies, and, as MUFG believes, EUR/USD could reach the height of 1.1500 over the next year.

As for the near-term outlook, according to Societe Generale economists, regardless of the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13 and the ECB on December 14, seasonal trends for the euro in the last month of 2023 are bullish. However, the dollar may be supported by weak growth rates in the Eurozone. Germany's economy is in a state of stagnation, preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone showed a decline of -0.1% in Q3, and the European Commission lowered the economic growth forecast for 2023 from 0.8% to 0.6%. Therefore, the euro may also come under pressure from speculation about a cut in the ECB interest rate.

EUR/USD finished the past week at the level of 1.0913. Currently, experts' opinions on its immediate future are divided as follows: 60% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 25% sided with the euro, and 15% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are coloured green, but 25% of the latter are in overbought territory. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0830, then 1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area, then 1.0945-1.0975 and 1.1065-1.1090, 1.1150, 1.1260-1.1275.

 Next week, on Wednesday, November 22, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. On Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released, and the following day will bring similar indicators from the U.S. Additionally, traders should take into account that on Friday in the United States, markets will close early as the country observes Thanksgiving Day.

GBP/USD: Surprise from UK CPI

The strengthening of the pound on U.S. inflation data turned out to be even greater than that of the euro. On November 14, GBP/USD rose by 240 points, from 1.2265 to 1.2505. This is good news for the British currency. However, there is also bad news: inflation in the United Kingdom is on the decline.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October decreased from 0.5% to 0% (m/m) and fell from 6.7% to 4.6% on an annual basis. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.1% to 5.7%. All these figures turned out to be below expectations and were a surprise not only for the market but also for British officials.

Megan Greene, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV on November 16 that despite the current decline in inflation, wage growth in the UK remains incredibly high, and labour productivity is low. These two factors complicate the movement toward the target CPI level of 2.0% and make one wonder whether the Bank of England's policy is restrictive enough. According to Megan Greene, BoE might have to stick to a restrictive policy longer than anticipated.

If inflation does not bring new surprises, it is unlikely that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months. But even if it continues to keep it at the current level of 5.25%, while the Federal Reserve starts lowering rates, it will benefit the pound. However, at the moment, making any forecasts is quite challenging.

"We remain cautious for now," write economists at German Commerzbank. "One surprise does not mean everything is settled. And given the remarkable instability of inflation in the UK, there is a risk that the return to the target inflation level will be uneven. Wage data released on Tuesday also confirms this view. At the moment, the Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief, but caution is still necessary."

GBP/USD ended the past week at the level of 1.2462. As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here their voices were divided equally: a third of them pointed north, a third to the south, and a third to the east. For D1 trend indicators, 90% point north, 10% to the south. All 100% of oscillators are looking up, with 15% of them signalling overbought conditions. In the event of the pair moving south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the case of the pair rising, it will face resistance at levels 1.2500-1.2510, then 1.2545-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

Events of the upcoming week in the calendar include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday, November 21. The following day will see the release of the Inflation Report and discussion of the country's budget, and on Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in various sectors of the UK economy will be released.

USD/JPY: U.S. Treasuries Expected to Rescue the Yen

On November 13, USD/JPY reached a height of 151.90, updating a multi-month high and returning to where it traded in October 2022. However, on U.S. inflation data, the yen staged a comeback.

Unlike the U.S. CPI, macro statistics from Japan had minimal impact on the yen, though there were notable points to consider. For instance, the country's GDP in the third quarter showed a decline of -0.5% after a 1.2% growth in the previous period and a forecast of -0.1%. Against this backdrop, the head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kadsuo Ueda, made a surprising statement on Friday, November 17, stating that the country's economy is recovering and is likely to continue doing so, albeit at a moderate pace.

Ueda is not certain that the weak yen negatively affects the Japanese economy. On the contrary, this weakness has a positive impact on exports and the profits of Japanese companies operating in the global market. Therefore, the head of the regulator is unsure about the order and extent to which the Bank of Japan will change its monetary policy. "We will consider ending the YCC policy and negative rates if we can expect our inflation target to be reached on a stable and sustainable basis," vaguely stated Kadsuo Ueda.

Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister, Sin'iti Sudzuki, stated that he is ready to take necessary measures in case of increased speculative pressure on the national currency. Deputy Minister Ryosei Akazawa supported his chief and reiterated that the government would intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive volatility. The words of both officials somewhat strengthened the national currency, and on Friday, November 17, it found a local bottom at the level of 149.19. The final chord sounded slightly higher – at 149.56.

Hopes that the BoJ will eventually tighten its monetary policy continue to linger among market participants. Strategists at Danske Bank, for example, predict a decline in USD/JPY below the 140.00 mark within 6-12 months. In their view, this is primarily due to the fact that the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has peaked. "We expect that in the coming year, the yield differential will contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese yen," they write. "In addition, historical data suggest that global conditions characterized by slowing growth and inflation favor the strengthening of the Japanese yen."

Speaking of the near-term prospects for the pair, 65% of analysts expect further strengthening of the yen, while 35% anticipate a new advance of the dollar. As for the technical analysis on D1, the forecast here is maximally neutral. Both among trend indicators and oscillators, the ratio between red and green is 50-50. The nearest support level is in the zone of 149.20, then 148.40-148.70, 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20. The nearest resistance is 150.00-150.15, then 151.70-151.90 (October 2022 maximum), further 152.80-153.15, and 156.25.

There is no planned release of any other significant statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: When Will You Become a Bitcoin Millionaire?

According to the Wayback Machine web archive, the surge in the value of the main cryptocurrency has led to a threefold increase in bitcoin millionaires since the beginning of the year. As of November 12, their count reached 88,628, a significant jump from the 28,084 recorded on January 5. Notably, bitcoin's price rose from $16,500 to $37,000 during this period.

Now, envision the potential scenario envisioned by Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where digital gold could soar to $500,000 within the next five years. Could the number of millionaires surpass a million? Moreover, when the BTC rate exceeds $1 million, as forecasted by ARK Investment CEO Catherine Wood, could we also join the ranks of those possessing this coveted wealth? It's highly desired that these aspirations materialize. Now, let's delve into why they could become reality and why they might crumble into fragments.

The experts at Matrixport have identified six drivers that, in their opinion, will contribute to the emergence of a BullRally in the coming months. These are: 1) SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs with trading expected to commence in February-March 2024; 2) the IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC; 3) court approval for the relaunch of the FTX exchange in December 2023, with actual resumption of operations in May-June; 4) the bitcoin network halving; 5) the implementation of EIP-4844 following the Dencun hard fork in the Ethereum blockchain in Q1 2024; 6) the potential onset of easing in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve by mid-2024.

Diving deeper into two of these factors, the first and the fourth: they currently play a crucial role in accelerating the accumulation of BTC by hodlers, surpassing the issuance of new coins by 2.2 times. Notably, over 57% of coins from the circulating supply have been dormant in wallets for over two years. Simultaneously, the supply from short-term holders and speculators is sharply decreasing. This dynamic creates a significant deficit in the digital gold market, propelling prices upward. Many experts anticipate that this trend will intensify significantly after the approval of spot ETFs and the 2024 halving.

According to the analytics agency Glassnode, since mid-2022, due to the decline in crypto asset prices, miners have been compelled to sell nearly all the coins they mined to cover operational expenses and payments on debts, amounting to approximately $1 billion per month. After the halving and a 50% reduction in rewards, this volume is expected to decrease to $0.5 billion. Some companies may struggle to sustain mining operations altogether. The influx of new coins is projected to drop from 81,000 to 40,500 per quarter, further amplifying the supply shortage and driving prices upward. Historical data indicates that, in the year following halvings, BTC prices surged by 460% to 7745%.

Regarding the potential influx of institutional capital upon approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), much has already been discussed. Let's delve into a few more forecasts. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization would rapidly increase by $1 trillion in this scenario. Approximately ~1% of assets under management (AUM) from managing companies would enter the bitcoin market, potentially raising the market capitalization of digital gold by $450-900 billion. In terms of price, this suggests a short-term increase for the BTC/USD pair to $50,000-73,000.

Analysts from Bernstein predict that, in the event of bitcoin ETF approval, the asset's price could reach $150,000 by 2025. Meanwhile, their counterparts at LookIntoBitcoin advise profit-taking when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000. To determine the peak height to which BTC will rise, LookIntoBitcoin specialists calculated the so-called Terminal Price. This is computed considering various factors, including the time between bitcoin mining and spending, as well as the quantity of coins in circulation. Calculations indicate that bitcoin will reach the Terminal Price during the next bull rally, expected to conclude by the end of 2025. Looking at a longer horizon, one can explore the forecasts of Mike Novogratz and Catherine Wood for the next five to seven years (see above).

And now, a bucket of cold water poured on the hot heads of crypto optimists by analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world's largest banks. They recently released a sceptical report that scrutinizes investor expectations. The main theses are as follows: 1) The introduction of spot ETFs will only lead to a capital shift from existing investment products (such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) but will not generate new demand; 2) Lost SEC cases [against Ripple and Grayscale] will not increase loyalty in crypto regulation, and as the regulatory framework takes shape, the situation will only become more stringent; 3) The impact of the halving is unpredictable, as the reward reduction is already factored into the price.

So, what awaits the leading cryptocurrency? This is the question posed by Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital, known as the "gold bug" and a fervent critic of bitcoin. This billionaire conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter) on the topic of when the crash of the leading cryptocurrency will occur. The majority of respondents (68.1%) believe that the asset should be bought and held. 23% of those surveyed predicted the coin's crash after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. Only 8.9% voted for the crash to happen before the launch of these exchange-traded funds.

Now about the current situation. Bitfinex exchange analysts warn that the price of bitcoin has reached a local maximum and may correct in the near future. According to their report, the average purchase price of BTC by short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price – STH RP) is currently at $30,380, and the difference between this figure and the current price of the asset is the highest since April 2022. Historically, this indicates that the coin's price has reached a local maximum and may correct to the STH RP level, dropping to the $30,000–$31,000 range.

Doctor Profit, an analyst, also anticipates a correction and believes that the next correction following the positive trend will bring BTC back to around $34,000. "The market is overheated right now. Correction is a matter of time," he wrote on his microblog.

On the contrary, Matrixport analysts believe that a confident breakthrough above $36,000 will push the price of the leading cryptocurrency towards the $40,000 resistance. After that, it may open the way to the $45,000 height, which could be reached by the end of 2023. "Considering the steady growth in the number of buyers during US trading hours, we can see price growth by the end of the month (and year). Santa Claus rally can start at any moment," emphasized the specialists.

Many members of the crypto community supported Matrixport's positive forecast. Analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that BTC will soon realize an impulse that will send the coin to $40,000. Trader CryptoCon also joined the optimists. According to his calculations, BTC has room to reach $47,000. However, he believes that this level may only be reached in the summer of 2024, after which a correction to around $31,000 is possible. The active growth phase due to the halving, according to CryptoCon, is expected by the end of 2024 – the beginning of 2025.

As of the writing of this review on Friday, November 17, BTC/USD is trading at $36,380. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.38 trillion ($1.42 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 70 to 63 points but still remains in the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Thanks to the rise in the price of the main cryptocurrency, since the beginning of the year, the number of bitcoin-millionaires has tripled. As of November 12, their count stood at 88,628, compared to 28,084 on January 5. This surge represents a growth of 215%. When categorizing millionaires by capital size, those with a minimum of $1 million amounted to 81,962, while those with holdings of at least $10 million numbered 6,666. These figures are sourced from the Wayback Machine web archive.

– Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of the crypto exchange Binance, referred to the economic model of bitcoin as "the greatest business model ever invented in our world." He made this comment in response to data indicating that mining revenues reached new highs. According to media reports, on November 12 alone, BTC miners earned over $44 million in rewards and block fees. This marks the highest daily income in the past year, surpassing the record set in April 2022.

– Security blockchain company SlowMist specialists uncovered a counterfeit Skype application used by hackers in China to steal hundreds of thousands of dollars in various cryptocurrencies. Exploiting the country's ban on international messengers, users are forced to download them from unofficial sources. In addition to the malicious pseudo-Skype, hackers used a phishing domain posing as Binance exchange. This allowed them to track messages with addresses resembling TRX and ETH formats. Subsequently, wallets were replaced with those owned by the hackers. The SlowMist team identified and blacklisted over 100 such fraudulent wallets. One of them alone received 110 transactions totalling over 192,856 USDT, stolen from users in China.

– Senator Cynthia Lummis defended the crypto industry and opposed claims that cryptocurrencies are actively used in illegal financial activities. She appealed to the U.S. Congress with a request not to succumb to speculative attacks and emphasized that illegal financial operations are a problem in any economic sector, not related to the asset class but rather to the opportunities for wrongdoers to commit such crimes. "Cryptocurrency is present in less than 1% of the total volume of all illegal financial activities. If we could create a regulatory structure allowing the crypto industry to operate in America, rather than in unregulated foreign markets, its share would be even smaller," said the senator. The reason for Cynthia Lummis's statement was several U.S. news agencies reporting that on the eve of the invasion of Israel, the military wing of HAMAS collected millions of dollars in cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a long-time advocate for stricter crypto regulation, formed a coalition of more than 100 senators demanding the immediate adoption of new rules to combat terrorism financing and money laundering in cryptocurrency.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, believes that central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve (FRS), are not designed to protect the average person. For this reason, the expert advised exercising wisdom and cited the example of the wealthy. According to him, millionaires do not work for "fake" money, such as the US dollar; instead, they invest in "real assets" like rental properties, gold, silver, and bitcoins, providing long-term financial security and freedom.

– Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital and known as the "gold bug" and a staunch critic of Bitcoin, conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter) about when the crash of the main cryptocurrency would occur. The responses did not please him much, as the majority of respondents (68.1%) believe that the asset should be bought and held. 23% of those surveyed predicted the crash of the coin after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Only 8.9% voted for the crash to happen before the launch of these exchange-traded funds. Despite the results, Schiff was not deterred, and in his comments, as usual, he took an extremely negative position. "Based on the results obtained," the financier wrote, "I assume that Bitcoin will fall before the ETF launch. Therefore, people who bought into the rumours will not receive any real profit."

– In contrast to Peter Schiff, analysts from Bernstein predict that if spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, the asset's price will reach $150,000 by 2025. Meanwhile, their colleagues from LookIntoBitcoin recommend taking profits when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000. To determine the peak height to which BTC will rise, LookIntoBitcoin specialists calculated the so-called Terminal Price of the coin. It is calculated considering various factors, including the time between BTC mining and spending, as well as the amount of coins in circulation. The calculations showed that bitcoin will reach the Terminal Price during the next bull run, expected to end in late 2025. After that, a dump will begin, and the BTC price, as usual, will rapidly decline.

– According to ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, in the next seven years, the total value of crypto assets could reach $25 trillion, driven by industry development and widespread adoption. She made this forecast while commenting on applications for exchange-traded BTC-ETFs. According to her, traditional markets demonstrate a "flight to quality," as Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, stated, or a "flight to safety," as stated in ARK Invest. This happens because "Bitcoin does not carry counterparty risk." "Look at what happened during the regional banking crisis. Bitcoin rose from $19,000 to almost $30,000 because the KRE, the regional bank index, collapsed. If you look at this stock index today, it has again dropped to the level it was in March," she added. Wood is confident in the success of the flagship cryptocurrency because "most people understand that bitcoin is a monetary revolution. It is the first global, private, digitally based, rule-based monetary system in history." It's worth noting that Cathy Wood is not alone in her super-optimistic forecasts: Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that within five years, digital gold will rise to $500,000.

– According to Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, local businesses in Argentina are massively transitioning to payments in bitcoins and USDT. Argentinians and tourists can now even buy products with the USDT stablecoin at the Central Market in Buenos Aires: one of the largest fruit and vegetable suppliers in Latin America. The adoption of cryptocurrency in the country is thriving due to hyperinflation and the devaluation of the paper peso. The inflation rate here rose to 108.8% (YoY) in April, remaining the highest since 1991. Six months ago, the Central Bank of Argentina raised the interest rate to 97%, but this stringent step turned out to be insufficient to curb price growth.

– Bitfinex exchange analysts warn that the price of Bitcoin has reached a local maximum and may correct soon. Currently, according to their report, the average short-term holder realized price (STH RP) of BTC is $30,380, and the difference between this figure and the current asset price is the highest since April 2022. Historically, this indicates that the coin's price has reached a local maximum and may correct to the STH RP level, i.e., drop to the range of $30,000–$31,000. Analyst Doctor Profit also expects a correction, believing that the next correction following positive dynamics will bring BTC back to around $34,000. "The market is overheated right now. Correction is a matter of time," he wrote on his microblog.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, analysed the current price of Ethereum. In his opinion, overcoming the altcoin resistance at $2,150 will signify the end of the bear market and push the cryptocurrency above the $3,000 threshold, where it may stabilize in the range of $3,100-$3,600. (It's worth noting that the price of Ethereum is above the 200-day SMA, and the coin showed 22 green days in the previous month).

– Matrixport analysts believe that a confident breakthrough above $36,000 will propel the price of the first cryptocurrency to the $40,000 resistance. After that, it will open the way to the $45,000 height, which can be reached by the end of 2023. "Given the steady growth in the number of buyers during US trading hours, we can expect price increases by the end of the month (and year). The Santa Claus rally could start at any moment," the specialists emphasized. As for 2024, Matrixport named six possible drivers that will contribute to positive dynamics: 1) SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF with trading beginning in February-March 2024; 2) IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC; 3) court approval to restart FTX exchange in December 2023, with actual resumption of work in May-June; 4) bitcoin halving; 5) implementation of EIP-4844 following the Dencun hard fork in the Ethereum blockchain in the first quarter of 2024; 6) possible start of the easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy by mid-2024.

– Many participants in the crypto community supported Matrixport's positive forecast. Analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that BTC will soon realize an impulse that will send the coin to $40,000. Trader CryptoCon also joined the optimists. According to his calculations, BTC has a "cushion" up to $47,000. The level, as he believes, can be reached in the summer of 2024, after which a correction to around $31,000 is possible. CryptoCon is confident that the active growth phase, against the backdrop of the halving, will occur at the end of 2024 – the beginning of 2025.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Former Ethereum platform consultant Steven Nerayoff has accused Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin of fraudulent activities. He believes that the co-founders of ETH have misled the crypto community by using social media. Furthermore, according to the lawyer, Buterin and Lubin are involved in manoeuvres that are a thousand times larger in scale than the crimes committed by FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
"Statements by Buterin that he attempted to create a decentralized currency are fake. It was centralized from the beginning, and today, it is likely even more concentrated," Nerayoff wrote. In particular, the lawyer suggests the possibility of a secret agreement between the Ethereum network administration and high-ranking U.S. officials, such as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, at the early stages of altcoin initial placements.
"A small circle of ETH investors controls about 75% of all protocol assets. So now it's easy to manipulate the price or even set its lower or upper limit. Most of the trading you see on exchanges is fake or fictitious to create the illusion of liquidity," Nerayoff expanded on his accusations.
Previously, this lawyer speculated that the full-scale attack on Ripple by U.S. regulatory bodies could have been sponsored by influential ETH holders. In his view, Ripple's detractors may include individuals associated with the SEC, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and even some Ripple employees.

– Crypto investigator Truth Labs believes that it is not the U.S. but the Chinese conglomerate Wangxian Group that has decisive influence over the Ethereum network, and organizations close to the Communist Party of China (CPC) control almost 80% of mined ETH. Truth Labs also claims that Wangxian was one of the original sponsors of the Ethereum network in 2015. The group is also attributed with creating original wallets for Buterin.

– Co-founder of Estonian LHV Bank Rain Lõhmus lost the password to a wallet containing 250,000 ETH. The businessman acquired the coins during an ICO in July 2015, and they remained dormant since then. At that time, the purchase cost him $75,000. On November 10, 2021, when the Ethereum price reached an all-time high of around $4,800, Lõhmus's holdings grew to $1.22 billion. However, even now, they amount to approximately $470 million. Now, the businessman intends to recover the password using artificial intelligence. "My plan," he stated, "is to create Rain Lõhmus as an AI and see if he can retrieve his memories." The possibility of losing access to his funds, the businessman called a "weak point" of blockchain. "It makes you think that this perfect decentralization carries risks that you don't usually consider," Lõhmus shared his conclusions.

– The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin may not benefit either the main cryptocurrency or the people who use it. This is the opinion expressed by the former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes. He referred to investment giants like BlackRock as "agents of the state." "The state needs its citizens to 'sit in the paper banking system' to tax them with inflationary taxes to repay constantly growing debts. This makes sense for institutional entities that are inherently subject to the state," he said.
According to Hayes, institutional interest in the asset poses a situation that "ultimately may not be to our liking." "Yes, it's good, an ETF emerges, the price rises to a level it can reach. But what is the ultimate benefit of one institution owning all of this cryptocurrency?" he questioned.

– The first cryptocurrency may reach the $47,000 mark by the end of November 2023, according to Rachel Lin, CEO of the decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures. 'The past weeks have solidified October's reputation as 'Uptober,' with bitcoin gaining nearly 29%. What's even more interesting is that historically, November outperforms October with an average bitcoin return of over 35%. If this November delivers a similar profit, the asset will reach approximately $47,000,' she stated.
As an additional positive factor, Lin noted the growth in the number of users and transactions. In her view, the surge in spot trading volume with a noticeable increase in transfers exceeding $100,000 is particularly noteworthy. 'This is a clear indicator of heightened institutional interest,' the specialist believes. 'Major players are consolidating positions in digital assets, especially in BTC. If we look at the inflow last week, we can see a massive increase: about $325 million entered the sector, with almost $300 million going into bitcoin. Options data also reflect bullish market sentiment.”

– As highlighted by Markus Thielen, the head of research at Matrixport, recent macroeconomic shifts, especially in the Federal Reserve's policies, suggest a potential rally in the market of cryptocurrencies. He reminded us that after the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's policy tightening cycle in January 2019, digital gold (referring to bitcoin) appreciated fivefold. Thielen cautioned against expecting a repetition of such dynamics while explaining that the first cryptocurrency could 'make significant advances' in 2023 and 2024. According to the expert's calculations, bitcoin tends to grow by an average of 23% during the pre-Christmas period of November and December this year.

– Analyst using the alias "Doctor Profit" has shared a rather conservative forecast. He believes that the period leading up to the BTC halving will range between $26,000 and $41,000. In his opinion, investors should be prepared for possible corrections. The expert also does not rule out the possibility of "black swan" events, similar to the one that pushed BTC to local lows before the halving in May 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

– In an interview with CNBC, the founder of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, listed the factors that he believes will lead to a tenfold increase in the price of bitcoin in the medium term. First, he mentioned the upcoming halving, which is expected to increase demand for the cryptocurrency and create a shortage in the market. Another source of buyer pressure will be spot-based ETFs based on the first cryptocurrency.
The third factor will be the soon-to-be-implemented new fair value accounting rules for bitcoin reserves of companies in the United States. Saylor believes that this will open the door for corporations to adopt bitcoin as a treasury asset and create shareholder value. The entrepreneur also pointed out the positive effect of regulatory and law enforcement actions by authorities, including the lawsuit against the former CEO of the collapsed FTX exchange. According to Saylor, "all these early crypto cowboys, tokens that are unregistered securities, unreliable custodians" were liabilities for bitcoin. To take the crypto industry to a new level, it needs "parental supervision." The founder of MicroStrategy also believes that the industry needs to "move away from the 100,000 tokens" that are simply used for speculation and focus on bitcoin. "When the industry shifts its focus away from the small shiny tokens that distract and destroy shareholder value, I think it will move to the next level, and we will see a tenfold increase from where we are now," Saylor concluded.

– The founder of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been found guilty of the alleged violations worth billions of dollars. On November 2, the jury delivered a guilty verdict in the case, convicting Bankman-Fried of seven episodes of fraud, money laundering, and criminal conspiracy. According to the law, the controversial businessman faces a minimum of 110 years in prison, essentially a life sentence. However, the judge has the discretion to impose a less severe punishment.

– CEO of ARK Investment Management, Catherine Wood, was asked which of the three asset classes she would prefer to hold for 10 years – cash, gold, or bitcoin. Without hesitation, she replied, "Without a doubt, bitcoin. It is capable of safeguarding savings from both inflation and deflation... It's digital gold." Wood noted that she expects cross-pollination between industries like AI and cryptocurrencies, believing that the first cryptocurrency will only benefit from innovation. As a reminder, according to her predictions, in the next decade, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million. 

– While for Catherine Wood, bitcoin is "digital gold," for billionaire Charlie Munger, it's the "dumbest investment," "rat poison," and a "venereal disease." In a recent interview, this associate of Warren Buffett once again criticized digital gold. "When people start creating artificial currency, it's like adding spoiled product to a traditional recipe that has been around for a very long time and used by many people," the investor said. According to him, one of the effective ways to advance civilization is to have a strong currency. It could be shells, corn kernels, gold coins, or debt obligations - the key is that this currency is issued by a central bank.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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