CryptoNews of the Week by NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week


– Mike Novogratz, the CEO of blockchain company Galaxy Digital, recommends buying bitcoin, pointing to the rising US national debt. In just the first week of July, the country's debt to creditors has increased by $1 trillion, reaching a total of $32.47 trillion. It is evident that this could destabilize the financial system, lead to another round of inflation, and result in a drop in the dollar's value. "This is madness... Buy bitcoin," Novogratz urged in response to a publication about the escalating debt of the United States.

– However, not everyone, like Mike Novogratz, foresees a bright future for BTC. According to the educational project 99bitcoins, bitcoin has been declared dead 474 times. The published "obituaries" spoke of the "insolvency and uselessness" of the primary cryptocurrency, asserting that the Bitcoin network is a "bubble," an "elaborate Ponzi scheme," and a "cryptocurrency dummy, with no real substantiated value."
Among the authors of these "posthumous messages" in 2023, there were quite a few well-known names in the financial world. These included Chamath Palihapitiya, the founder and CEO of venture company Social Capital; Robin Brooks, the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF); Harvey Jones from the British news agency Daily Express; Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase; TV host Jim Cramer; and John Reed Stark, a former official of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Vitalik Buterin has recently also criticized bitcoin. In the view of the creator of ethereum, the flagship cryptocurrency lacks scalable second-layer solutions to become more than just a payment network.

– Crypto market experts have drawn the results for Q2 2023. These three months proved to be turbulent, and the industry experienced a series of ups and downs. Most high-capitalization projects displayed negative dynamics during this period, primarily due to ongoing legal disputes between the SEC and major crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase. This had a significant negative impact on many coins in the TOP-100, as the SEC classified them as securities.
However, amidst the turbulence, bitcoin, and some other digital currencies, such as BCH and LTC, demonstrated high performance. According to the CryptoRank report, their success was driven by news related to exchange-traded funds and institutional listings. Bitcoin, in particular, delivered an impressive return that outperformed traditional financial instruments, overshadowing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes, as well as gold and silver, in the first half of 2023.
Undoubtedly, one of the most significant events was the application for a spot bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. This event particularly benefited BTC, which reached a new high for 2023. BlackRock's initiative started a chain of events where numerous asset managers also began either renewing or submitting new applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. It is important to note that the SEC has previously rejected all such applications. In this case, a final decision on BlackRock's application is expected no earlier than the middle of Q3 2023 and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month before the next BTC halving.

– The crypto market traditionally experiences a lull during the summer. Admittedly, trading volumes increased in June thanks to spot bitcoin ETF applications from BlackRock and other companies, but overall, Q2 witnessed a decrease in trading activity. According to CryptoRank, crypto exchanges recorded a decline in trading volume in Q2, reaching the lowest level in the last two years.

– The bitcoin halving in 2024 is tentatively set to take place on April 12. It has the potential to exert a fundamental influence on both the price of BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market, as it is a crucial mechanism in the primary cryptocurrency's protocol. Every 210,000 blocks, or once every four years, it halves the reward that miners receive for mining a block. This is done to create a deflationary environment and to support the value of BTC by reducing the rate of new coin issuance. (The total emission size is set at 21 million coins.)
Originally, from 2009, miners received 50 BTC for each generated block. In 2012, the reward decreased to 25 BTC, in 2016 – to 12.5 BTC, and after 2020 – to 6.25 BTC. When the 2024 halving occurs, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125 coins.
Historical data suggest that after this event, the bitcoin exchange rate may once again sharply increase. After the 2012 halving, the BTC price rose from $11 in November 2012 to $1,100 in November 2013. Following the 2016 halving, the price increased from $640 in July to $20,000 in December 2017. The 2020 halving enabled the coin's price to rise from $9,000 in May 2020 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021. However, despite this statistic, experts warn that past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future.

– After the 2024 halving and the halving of the reward for a mined block, miners will have to adapt to a new reality. They will need to acquire more powerful and energy-efficient equipment or upgrade their existing ones. According to forecasts, many small companies will most likely leave the market or be acquired by larger players. As a result, we should expect the mining market to become centralized, falling under the control of a few large pools. This would make the network more susceptible to manipulations and hacking attacks. However, a sharp increase in the price of bitcoin could at least partially offset these negative factors.

– Analysts asked ChatGPT to talk about some potential events that could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The Artificial Intelligence's response was as follows:
1. Regulation: Legislative or regulatory changes in key countries can greatly affect the cryptocurrency market. If important jurisdictions adopt laws that severely limit the use or trade of cryptocurrencies, it could strongly affect their prices and accessibility.
2. Large-scale hacking attacks: If large-scale hacking attacks occur on major cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets, it could cause panic in the market and lead to significant losses.
3.Technological breakthroughs: New technologies or improvements in blockchain and cryptocurrencies can also have a significant impact. This can include new consensus protocols, improved scalability, or enhanced privacy protection methods.
4. Large companies' investments: If major companies like Apple, Google, or Amazon start actively investing in cryptocurrencies or integrating them into their services, it could significantly increase the value of cryptocurrencies and overall interest in them.
5. Global economic events: Cryptocurrencies are often considered a "safe haven" during economic instability. So global economic crises or significant changes in inflation, interest rates, or currency exchange rates could also influence the crypto market.

– The former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, Arthur Hayes, has speculated that bitcoin might become the ideal currency for artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In his opinion, digital gold is superior to other assets in this respect, as it possesses characteristics such as decentralization, resistance to censorship, proven deficit, and dependence of intrinsic value on energy costs. "There is nothing today that can compare to bitcoin in these parameters," wrote Hayes.
He believes that in the future, investors may reevaluate the first cryptocurrency due to its "adoption" by artificial intelligence. According to Hayes, this will occur due to a desire to "avoid inflation in the fiat financial system" and to "capture part of the next phase of human and computer evolution." The former CEO of BitMEX added that by 2025-2026, the AI economy will account for up to 50% of global GDP, against which backdrop bitcoin will reach $760,000.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– As of the end of June, the primary cryptocurrency holdings belonging to Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the nephew of the 35th US president and a current electoral candidate, reached $250,000. This was revealed by a financial report discovered by CNBC. Kennedy's representatives confirmed that the funds are personally his.
Interestingly, during the Bitcoin-2023 conference, this presidential candidate called digital assets "a symbol of democracy and freedom," yet denied his investments in cryptocurrency. "I'm not an investor, and I'm not here to give investment advice," stated this electoral race participant at the time.

– Standard Chartered bank specialists predicted in April that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The figures from the July forecast look slightly higher. According to analysts, the price of bitcoin could exceed $50,000 this year, and by the end of next year, it might reach $120,000. "Increased miner profitability per mined BTC means they can sell less, preserving the inflow of funds, which reduces the net supply of the asset and leads to a price increase," explained Geoff Kendrick, the bank's analyst.

– The involvement of major investment firms in the race to launch spot bitcoin ETFs suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is no longer a "passing fad," stated Michael Sonnenshein, the CEO of Grayscale Investments. According to him, market participants are "responding positively to the inclusion of traditional financial institutions in bitcoin." "Recent news [...] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment opportunity," Sonnenshein added.

– Meta's new network Threads, often referred to as a Twitter clone, was launched on July 5. The user base of the new platform is approaching 100 million, largely due to Instagram users, though it is still far from matching Twitter's 450 million users.
It was previously reported that in the spring, eight popular cryptocurrency accounts on Twitter were hacked, resulting in the hackers acquiring nearly $1 million. It now seems that fraudsters have also turned their attention to the new network. Developers from the decentralized finance platform Wombex Finance reported the appearance of a counterfeit duplicate account on Threads, suggesting that extortionists may be operating there. Leonidas, one of the popular NFT bloggers, reported a similar case.

– Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of venture company Eight, believes that bitcoin is preparing for a surge to $41,000. The popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency and Fibonacci levels. According to him, "the previous annual high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher highs, as traders build upward momentum and positions." "To continue the upward trend that we call a bull cycle, bitcoin needs to reach a new and clearer high," explains Michael Van De Poppe. "There are several points that can help determine the potential for further growth using Fibonacci levels. And right now, I would say we're facing a rally up to $41,000."
"There are two scenarios - growth above the current high, followed by some consolidation and retracement before a new rise. Or consolidation at current levels, followed by accelerated growth over the next few months. For bitcoin, this is pretty standard behaviour. And then we'll move towards $41,000 or even $42,500," predicts the analyst.

– Robert Kiyosaki, an economist and the author of the well-known book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," has made another bold statement. He asserts that by 2024, bitcoin will reach a value of $120,000 per coin. Kiyosaki bases his forecast on the belief that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will soon adopt the gold standard and release their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This could undermine the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy and lead to its devaluation. He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption.
In light of this, Kiyosaki recommends protecting one's funds from inflation by purchasing physical and digital gold. He also believes that bitcoin is one of the best ways not only to preserve but also to increase capital amid the instability of the financial system.
(For reference: On July 11, the Russian Parliament passed a law establishing legal norms for the introduction of the digital rouble.)

– Markus Thielen, Head of Research at crypto financial service Matrixport, forecasts a similar figure, albeit not at the start but by the end of 2024. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotations of the premier cryptocurrency could exceed the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. "On June 22, bitcoin reached a new annual high. Historically, this signal indicated the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets," he explained.
According to Thielen, the price of bitcoin could skyrocket by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset's price would rise to $65,539 and $125,731 respectively. The expert's forecast is based on the average returns of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020. Thielen deliberately ignores the first case with a growth of 5,285% over 18 months, describing it as "epic" and "disproportional."

– Guy Turner, the host of the popular cryptocurrency channel Coin Bureau on YouTube, believes that in the medium term, there are two factors in favor of a massive growth of ethereum. The main one is the EIP-4844 update, which is expected to introduce a preliminary sharding (segmentation) mechanism for the network of the main altcoin. This update will be extremely important as it could, theoretically, give Ethereum the ability to scale on par with centralized systems.
The show host also noted that the issue of privacy remains very important. According to him, the developers of the second-largest cryptocurrency remain extremely concerned about this issue. "The huge focus on privacy and security is not surprising if you think about institutional investors. For them, it's a cornerstone," Turner highlighted. He recalled that Vitalik Buterin has raised this issue repeatedly, calling it "one of the three problems that need to be solved, otherwise ethereum will collapse.".

– Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino believes that a fall in the US dollar could lead to price increases for cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, SOL, MATIC, XRP, Gala, and Render. In his opinion, the dollar is ready for a sharp devaluation. However, the expert does not consider an apocalyptic scenario of the collapse of the main global currency, since the dynamics of its exchange rate are slower than for other classes of financial assets.
Still, Pizzino predicts a steady downward trend for USD in the foreseeable period and a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets. The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and considering the correlation between USD and BTC, a decline in the former could contribute to an increase in the value of the latter, which would then be followed by an increase in the value of other crypto assets. 

– Lightning Labs, a company specializing in software development, has unveiled its latest product: a plugin for ChatGPT that allows sending Bitcoin payments. Lightning Labs also presented a set of tools for developers that allow AI models like GPT to carry out bitcoin transactions on the Lightning Network. This step aims to bring AI technologies closer to the world of cryptocurrency, paves the way for new innovations, and promotes the development of this field.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– Numerous Twitter users, including many cryptocurrency traders and investors, have voiced complaints against Elon Musk. The discontent was tied to the billionaire and new owner of the social network implementing a series of restrictions. Starting from July 1, 2023, verified users are able to view up to 6,000 posts per day, while unverified users are limited to only 600. At the same time, this limit is further reduced to 300 posts for new accounts.
According to several experts, these new restrictions may have a negative impact on the crypto market. Many industry participants have been receiving a large amount of important information via Twitter. However, it has now become significantly more difficult to obtain current data and news.
Musk himself assured that this measure is temporary and is necessary in order to reduce the load on the system's internal servers. He said that the limits will later increase to 8,000, 800, and 400 posts, respectively.

– The rapid fall in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is only a matter of time. This was asserted by the president of Euro Pacific Capital, "gold bug" Peter Schiff, adding that he had underestimated the "bubble potential of Bitcoin." In his view, most investors do not believe in the first cryptocurrency, they merely hope that someone will buy it at a high price.
The businessman believes that stories about people losing money on cryptocurrency will overshadow those about people getting rich from it. "The peak we saw in 2021, around $70,000, that's it, and ultimately bitcoin will burst," he predicted.

– "The adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs is a major event for the crypto industry," stated Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy. "It's an important milestone on the path to institutional acceptance. I believe it's important, but I don't think bitcoin will rise overnight to $5 million."
"The approval of spot bitcoin ETF applications will make investors realize that the first cryptocurrency is a legitimate asset," the billionaire explained. "If the SEC approves applications for this asset, a user can press a button and purchase $10 million of BTC within 30 seconds." (The SEC is currently reviewing several applications for the launch of spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. However, the Commission maintains that these applications are not sufficiently clear and comprehensive.)
For reference: MicroStrategy additionally purchased 12,333 BTC amounting to a total of $347 million between April 29 and June 27. Saylor's company now owns a total of 152,333 BTC, valued at over $4.6 billion, which were acquired at an average rate of $29,668.

– A survey revealed that 92% of Earth's inhabitants have heard of cryptocurrencies at least once. The study involved 15,158 individuals aged between 18 and 65 years from 15 countries across America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
37% of the respondents consider this asset class as part of the monetary system. However, only 15% of Britons and 17% of Germans agree with this statement. Nigerians (65%) and Argentinians (56%) are the most interested in holding digital assets, seeing them as an effective means of preserving value. Analysts attributed this to the instability of local financial systems and state currencies. 26% of those surveyed consider crypto assets to be a scam. Primarily, Americans and Britons associate cryptocurrencies with fraudulent schemes.

– Most cryptocurrency exchanges do not allow minors to trade digital assets, but parents can open accounts on their behalf and allow them to participate in trading. Youth readily engage in this activity, and there are numerous stories of children investing in Bitcoin since its inception. For instance, Erik F. received $1,000 to invest in BTC when he was 12 years old, and by the time he turned 18, he had become a millionaire thanks to it.
According to data published last year by the platform Gohenry, 1.33 million children in the UK invested money in cryptocurrency. Moreover, a study titled "Parents, Kids, and Money," conducted by T. Rowe Price, showed that 57% of children aged 8-14 are familiar with digital currencies. They are better informed about cryptocurrencies than their parents, with only 47% of parents familiar with the technology - 10% less than their kids.

– Market participants should exercise more caution when trading cryptocurrency, warned CoinDesk researchers. The fact is that starting from Q4 2022, global fiat liquidity indicators have been rapidly declining, and the rise in BTC quotes in such conditions is an anomaly. The BTC rate hit a local price bottom of $15,500 in November last year and has since doubled in price to $31,000. Moreover, just since June 15, its value has spiked by over 20%. This occurred against the backdrop of news that major companies had once again submitted applications for the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Decentral Park Capital, the situation remains complex. He confirmed that lately, tracked fiat indicators, such as the Fed's net liquidity and global net liquidity level, have significantly dropped. "This is the main reason why we are cautious about BTC, despite the market's optimistic consensus. We think that investors are overlooking this," Harland added.
The global net liquidity indicator, which takes into account the supply of fiat in several major countries, has decreased to $26.5 trillion - the lowest level since November 2022. Such data was provided by the platforms TradingView and Decentral Park Capital. 

– Crypto strategist and trader known as Bluntz, who accurately pinpointed the bottom of bitcoin's bear market in 2018, believes that ethereum is showing all the signs of a powerful rally that could occur in the coming months. According to his words, the remaining part of 2023 may set ethereum on parabolic growth, allowing the leading smart contract platform to significantly outperform BTC.
Bluntz is considered an experienced practitioner of technical analysis and, in particular, Elliott Wave Theory, which allows forecasting price behaviour following the psychology of the crowd that tends to manifest in waves.
According to this theory, a bullish asset shows a five-wave rally, with the third wave signalling the steepest rise. Bluntz suggests that ethereum is already in the early stages of the third wave's surge, which could lead to ETH approaching $4,000 by the end of 2023.

– Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa is confident that the leading cryptocurrency may rise to $32,000 first and then to the new 2023 high of $40,000. However, he's not certain about the latter. This should be followed by a significant downward correction.
Addressing the ETH/BTC pair, Altcoin Sherpa noted that ethereum is likely to fall relative to the flagship crypto asset and target the minimum range around 0.053 BTC, or $1,614.

– Well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen made a forecast about the likely price trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoins. In his opinion, compared to current levels, bitcoin could grow approximately by 14% and reach a maximum of $35,000 in 2023. "In the short term, it's really hard to say whether bitcoin can rise a bit again. For myself, I set a target of $35,000," the expert said.
Cowen also talked about what will happen to other coins if the BTC price does reach this goal. He believes this will be insignificant news for the altcoin market, as it will most likely continue to crash in pairs with Bitcoin. "Upon reaching $35,000, Bitcoin at some point must go down," argues Cowen. "I think it will have to repeat some of these movements, as usually happens in the year preceding the halving. And at this point, the altcoin market will drop a little bit more, and the dominance of Bitcoin will continue to grow. Liquidity is drying up, so people see relative safety in Bitcoin compared to the altcoin market. But this does not mean that Bitcoin cannot fall, it means that it is somewhat safer."

– Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel reported that the global financial market is demonstrating a decrease in correlation between two assets that investors traditionally view as effective hedges against market volatility. While the price of Bitcoin is showing explosive growth, the price of gold is gradually decreasing. Fred Thiel suggested that this not only indicates a shift in priorities in favor of digital assets but also demonstrates the widening accessibility of bitcoin to a broader circle of investors.
In April, analytical company Kaiko cited data on the correlation between BTC and XAU within 50%. At the time, according to Kaiko analyst Dessislava Aubert, this represented the strongest link between the two assets in more than a year.

– According to technical analysis data, the main cryptocurrency's rate on the BTC/USD chart may form a new "bullish flag". This opinion was expressed by experts from Fairlead Strategies. "Bitcoin is digesting its gains during the consolidation phase," they said. "A new bullish flag might be forming, which will emerge when breaking above the weekly Ichimoku cloud around $31,900."
The experts explained that this figure consists of a pole and a flag. According to them, its pole represents the initial price rally, and the flag represents the subsequent consolidation, caused by a "temporary exhaustion of bullish sentiments" and the absence of strong pressure from sellers. According to the theory of technical analysis, once an asset breaks the price above the contour of the flag, it tends to grow by an amount approximately equal to the length of the pole.
In the case of bitcoin, the upward movement from the June 15, 2023, low at $24,790 to the June 23 high at $31,388 represents the pole, and the subsequent consolidation formed the flag. According to analysts, a potential BTC breakout will allow the cryptocurrency's cost to reach the next key resistance level at $35,900.

– Venture capitalist Tim Draper has revised the timeframe within which the price of the main cryptocurrency is supposed to grow to $250,000. "I think we'll have to wait a little longer," the billionaire wrote, adding that his forecast will come true by the end of June 2025 with a 100% probability.
Draper had previously predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. When his forecast didn't come true, he extended the timeline for its realization by another six months to mid-2023. Now he has made a new "correction", adding that the BTC price will exceed his assumptions due to the adoption of cryptocurrency by women.
However, Draper expressed concern about the regulation of digital assets. "Law enforcement regulation is killing our economy," he wrote on June 20. "I think we have a real problem because the SEC is sowing fear, and all innovators are leaving the country... This forced regulation doesn't make sense."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of the 35th President of the United States and participant in the current election race, outlined his plans regarding bitcoin and financial independence of citizens in an interview with The New York Post.
The candidate promised to make decisions that "support bitcoin and transaction freedom, allowing people to manage their own wallets." He clarified that he would create a relaxed regulatory environment in the U.S., which would incorporate "strict control to prevent money laundering." Kennedy also voiced opposition to a digital dollar. "I oppose central bank digital currencies because they are tools of control and oppression, and they are likely to be abused," explained the politician.
He also identified the search for ways to globally regulate Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies as a significant challenge. Citing remarks by Elon Musk, he noted that "AI will first take away jobs, then it will kill us."
For reference: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an American environmental lawyer, radio host, and writer known for his anti-vaccination advocacy and conspiracy theories.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, a gold enthusiast, and a fervent critic of bitcoin, claimed that there is "nothing lower quality than cryptocurrencies." "Until recently, the rally in highly speculative assets had excluded Bitcoin. Now that it has finally joined the party, it is likely to end soon," he wrote. According to Schiff, such rallies usually end when the "lowest quality things," such as digital assets, finally join them.
Recall that in March, the President of Euro Pacific Capital urged the sale of the leading cryptocurrency and buying gold amidst the issues with Silvergate Bank.

– Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, announced on Twitter that both institutional and retail investors have begun purchasing bitcoin. Notably, according to him, institutions are extremely interested in buying Bitcoin ahead of the approval of spot ETFs.
It's worth noting that the investment giant BlackRock recently filed an application to launch a spot Bitcoin trust, intended to simplify institutional access to the crypto market. Another investment behemoth, Invesco, which manages assets worth $1.4 trillion, has applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. (MicroStrategy believes such an ETF could absorb trillions of dollars).
"The window to buy bitcoin in advance is closing. Bitcoin was the most obvious and profitable investment of the last decade. But it will remain just as beneficial in this decade!", claimed Cameron Winklevoss. Hugh Hendry, the manager of the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, agrees with him, suggesting that bitcoin could triple its capitalization in the medium term.

– Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the cryptocurrency market has shown incredible resilience in the face of constantly increasing regulatory pressure. The recent application by BlackRock, the largest asset management company, to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF is just one of the reasons for a new bull cycle.
"In fact, bitcoin has been gradually rising since November of last year when FTX collapsed. Meaning, cryptocurrencies grew despite all the growing anxiety. Now we have BlackRock, who has raised the flag and declared that BTC matters. That it's asset institutional investors want to invest in. I believe we've entered a new era of cryptocurrency, which I call 'prime,' and expect a multi-year bull trend that's only just beginning," argues the businessman.
The CEO of Bitwise predicts that not only cryptocurrencies will flourish, but also companies working in this industry. The businessman is expecting a multitude of new crypto firms to enter the stock market, as well as companies with large cryptocurrency reserves.
As early as 2021, Matt Hougan said that the futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs, which exist in the US market, are not particularly suitable for long-term investors due to their high ancillary costs. Only when spot exchange-traded funds for bitcoin emerge will institutional investors begin substantial capital injections.

– Popular bitcoin maximalist and advisor to the President of El Salvador, Max Keiser, believes that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has sufficient technical and political tools to assign XRP and ETH the status of a security, which would ultimately kill these altcoins. "The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) works for the banking cartel, racketeering on behalf of financial structures," Keiser wrote in his blog.
The crypto enthusiast thinks that the mere fact of XRP and ETH's fate being in the hands of regulatory bodies already suggests that these assets are too centralized and incapable of surviving without losses in the lawless and conflict-ridden environment where the SEC operates. Some opponents of the SEC argue that computer code, by definition, cannot be a security. However, Max Keiser considers this a weak and dead-end argument since the functionality and purpose of the crypto asset will play a significant role in its classification.
Recall that the Commission classified Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Coti (COTI), Algorand (ALGO), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), Sandbox (SAND), Axie Infinity (AXS), and Decentraland (MANA) as securities. The crypto community practically did not react to this regulator's statement. Moreover, several cryptocurrency platforms took the SEC's statement as guidance for action and delisted to avoid possible claims.

– The next bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024, will reduce miners' rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. According to an analyst operating under the pseudonym InvestAnswers, such a reduction in supply from miners could catalyse a significant bullish surge.
The expert believes that further institutional adoption, including BackRock's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, will also increase demand for the asset and further reduce supply. Apart from BlackRock, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Citadel, and Invesco have also shown activity in the crypto market. Together, they manage assets totalling $27 trillion. And bitcoin's market cap is just a little more than $0.5 trillion. Only a tiny part of this half-trillion is being traded in the market. This implies that "demand for Bitcoins is growing, and the supply is drying up. And that means the price is rising," explained InvestAnswers. 

– The main altcoin has secured its position above the key $1850 mark, and a number of analysts believe that ethereum has the potential to realize bullish momentum in the near term. For example, popular expert Ali Martinez points out that ETH may face serious resistance near the $2,000-2,060 zone, as over 832,000 addresses previously opened sales in this range. However, if ethereum overcomes this zone, it has every chance of reaching $2,330 on a sharp impulse. And in perspective, a path opens for further growth up to $2,750.
On the other hand, specialists at Santiment believe that the altcoin is currently unstable. This is due to a significant battle between buyers and sellers near the $1,900 region. However, the overall supply of ethereum on centralized platforms has decreased by 9.2%. In theory, this could provide additional support to the main altcoin.

– Futures contracts for ethereum and bitcoin will expire on Friday, June 30. According to AmberDate, more than 150 thousand BTC options will be liquidated by this deadline on the Deribit Exchange, amounting to approximately $4.57 billion. Another $2.3 billion will be allocated to ETH contracts. Experts from CoinGape believe that this could be a trigger for a serious increase in volatility in July and provide significant support to these assets. However, a lot will also depend on the macroeconomic statistics coming from the U.S.

– Morgan Creek Capital's founder and CTO, Mark Yusko, believes that bitcoin and the crypto markets have entered a bullish trajectory. In his opinion, this trend may last up until the next halving. "I think the rally is just starting. We've just entered the so-called crypto-summer season," the specialist wrote. However, he warned that a speculative explosion caused by halving is usually followed by an excessive reaction in the opposite direction, known as a crypto winter.
According to the head of Morgan Creek Capital, bitcoin is digital gold, and it is ready to replace what physical gold has done for 5,000 years. As for ethereum, Yusko thinks of it as a substitute for fiat currency.

– Ten years ago, Davinci Jeremie posted a video on YouTube in which he strongly recommended his viewers spend at least one dollar on Bitcoin, and explained why BTC would grow in the coming years. At that time, this forecast from Jeremie either angered or amused most investors who did not want to heed the recommendation. Now, they bitterly regret it - the $1 invested at that time could have bought more than 1,000 BTC, which today are valued at $30 million.
 Jeremie noted in a recent interview that bitcoin should be bought even now. According to him, only 2 percent of the world's population owns cryptocurrency, so it still has time to please its investors with new records. "However, there is also one problem here," says Jeremie. "Everyone wants to have a whole Bitcoin. No one wants to go to the store and say, 'Can I get one trillionth of an apple'. So even though Bitcoin is divisible, this property is essentially its Achilles heel. The solution to the problem is to make the display of small parts of BTC more comprehensible. For example, do not write amounts like 0.00001 BTC, but replace them with an equal number of Satoshi, that is, the smallest indivisible particle of 1 bitcoin worth 0.00000001 BTC."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge from June 15 to 21, smashing through resistance levels of $25,000 and $26,500, and ultimately peaking at $29,000. This represents an impressive six-day growth of approximately 17%. Following in the footsteps of this leading cryptocurrency, altcoins also witnessed similar uptrends. For instance, Ethereum recorded a roughly 12% appreciation.
This notable ascent cannot be attributed to a single catalyst. Rather, bitcoin's rise coincided with a sequence of positive developments within the industry. Investment heavyweight BlackRock submitted a proposal for a spot bitcoin trust, aimed at streamlining institutional entrance into the crypto market. Deutsche Bank, one of Germany's most formidable financial conglomerates, declared its foray into the digital asset sector, taking on cryptocurrency storage duties. Wall Street powerhouses, Citadel and Fidelity, joined forces to launch a decentralized crypto exchange named EDX Markets on June 20th. Invesco, another investment juggernaut, overseeing $1.4 trillion in assets, has lodged an application to roll out a spot Bitcoin ETF. MicroStrategy has even speculated that such a spot Bitcoin ETF could absorb trillions of dollars. One additional factor potentially fuelling bitcoin's rise could be the minting of a fresh batch of Tether stablecoins (USDT).

– It's worth noting that the surge of the flagship cryptocurrency occurred despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on the digital market. Recall that the SEC previously filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. In court documents, the SEC classified more than a dozen tokens as securities. Experts believe that a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already made it onto the regulator's blacklist.
Preston Pysh, a popular author on investment books, believes that this regulatory pressure was part of a planned campaign. The goal being to give major players the opportunity to enter the digital asset market under favourable conditions. He substantiated his perspective with the daring moves made by Wall Street giants, as previously mentioned.

– TV host and billionaire Mark Cuban and former SEC executive John Reed Stark discussed the ongoing crackdown on the crypto industry. Stark believes the SEC's actions are necessary. According to him, the regulator is trying to protect investors from potential fraud and scams in this sector. He's also convinced that the SEC's actions will ultimately benefit the industry, by weeding out dishonest participants and increasing transparency.
As for Mark Cuban, he drew a comparison to the early days of the internet. In the billionaire's view, "90% of blockchain companies will fail. 99% of tokens will fail. Just like 99% of early internet companies."

– El Salvador could potentially clear its debts through bitcoin and geothermal cryptocurrency mining. This viewpoint was expressed by Max Keiser, the CEO of Volcano Energy. The former trader and television host moved to El Salvador in 2022 and now serves as an advisor to President Nayib Bukele. Keiser asserts that, owing to its legal framework regarding cryptocurrency and energy resources, El Salvador could become a global centre for bitcoin mining. This could create new jobs, boost the country's GDP, and enable it to settle its debts with creditors.
As for Volcano Energy itself, Keiser believes that the company's market capitalization will grow to $50 billion, exceeding El Salvador's GDP, which is estimated at $29 billion. According to him, this growth will be driven by bitcoin's price rising to $1 million per coin.

– Author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, is convinced that the crisis in the banking sector is far from over. Last week, he warned of an impending crash in the real estate sector. According to the expert, California-based mortgage lender LoanDepot is already on the brink of bankruptcy, and the looming real estate market crash could likely be far worse than the 2008 crisis. In light of this situation, Kiyosaki once again advised his followers to prepare for disaster by accumulating precious metals and bitcoin.

– Galaxy Digital's CEO, Mike Novogratz, has compared the recent crypto crash to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The billionaire believes that the industry needs to be legalized. In that case, it will become transparent, and regulators will be able to ensure investor safety. As it stands, regulators lack sufficient levers to control the movement of funds in digital currencies. Novogratz made these remarks at a summit organized by Bloomberg.
The CEO of Galaxy Digital also believes that in the fight against inflation, demand for alternative instruments will intensify, one of which is bitcoin. He foresees that the price of bitcoin will reach $500,000 in the long term.

– Placeholder venture partner Chris Burniske is known for accurately predicting the crypto bottom in 2022. He also noted that cryptocurrencies often surge when the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) takes a breather. A cooling down in stocks triggers a capital flow into riskier assets, prompting a bullish rally for BTC.
In this context, Burniske referenced data from Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann. According to their observations, starting from 2019, bitcoin has shown strong growth whenever the NDX showed signs of bullish exhaustion. Currently, bitcoin is just a few steps away from outperforming the NDX again, as the index is nearing its local peak.  

– Popular investor and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the market situation makes the realization of negative BTC forecasts impossible, particularly those predicting a drop in cryptocurrency to $12,000. In his opinion, investors should now be "filling their pockets" in anticipation of further growth.

– BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that U.S. authorities are not only hindering the development of the blockchain industry but are also creating conditions for it to shift to China. Last week, he published an article criticizing the U.S. crackdown on the industry. In his article, Hayes emphasized that China is more flexible than the U.S. and allows investors to enter the crypto sphere through platforms registered in Hong Kong. This metropolis is beginning to accumulate significant capital, which positively affects its financial development. Conversely, the American market is losing appeal, forcing companies and funds to leave.

– Former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, has issued a stark warning. He believes that since Apple, Microsoft, and Google have access to all user data on their devices, including private wallet keys, they could assist authorities in confiscating cryptocurrency from its owners if required. He argues that it would only take permission from the governments of G7 countries and China to do this. Srinivasan considers such permission quite possible, as authorities are interested in the development of CBDCs - digital currencies managed by central banks - and the elimination of their competitors in the form of Bitcoin and various altcoins.

– Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned of a potential fall in Ethereum compared to the leading cryptocurrency. ETH/BTC could plummet by 45% from its current value of 0.066 BTC. "As far as I can tell from the chart," he wrote, "we constantly see lower peaks in ETH/BTC, at least in the short term. However, in the longer term, we see even lower peaks in 2017 (0.036 BTC). And this is where the level of recovery might begin." At the same time, the analyst notes that the likelihood of a "bull rally" in this pair without a downward correction is quite low - first, the "bears" need to complete this movement. "Only then will we be able to assess the prospects for ETH/BTC," Cowen concluded.

– For the first time since 2021, BTC's market dominance has approached 50%. This means that half of the entire market capitalization is attributed to a single asset. The index last rose this high two years ago, in May 2021. The current rise is associated with SEC pressure on altcoins and the application for a spot Bitcoin trust by BlackRock.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes that bitcoin's dominance will reach 80% in the coming years. There are now about 25,000 tokens of varying quality in the market, and this confuses large investors. After the SEC helps remove excess assets, large capital will be more willing to invest in the leading cryptocurrency.

– Cybersecurity analysts have discovered that 95% of users of hacking software for stealing NFTs are schoolchildren. They are responsible for stealing tokens worth $73 million. They then spent these assets on purchasing skins in Roblox, branded items, food delivery, and gambling. According to The Block, high school students do this without fully realizing the crime. They perceive the theft as a game. The peak activity of young criminals occurs during the summer holidays when they have more free time.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– American bitcoin exchanges are likely to be required to register with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as brokers, and all cryptocurrencies will be classified as securities. These conclusions were drawn by strategists at JPMorgan bank. According to experts, such a situation will exert significant pressure on the industry. However, they believe that this approach also has positive aspects, as digital assets will be subject to the same legislation as traditional ones.
JPMorgan analysts noted that the actions of the SEC highlight the need for U.S. lawmakers to develop a clear regulatory framework. According to them, otherwise, the crypto industry is likely to leave the United States and relocate to other jurisdictions, while venture financing in the sector will decline. The new rules will "rid the industry of bad practices and dishonest players, which, in turn, is necessary for the industry to mature and witness more active institutional participation."
It is worth recalling that earlier, the SEC filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. In the court documents, the SEC named over a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a regulator's victory could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already ended up on the regulator's blacklist.

– According to the analytical platform Glassnode, investor behavior has noticeably shifted the distribution of Bitcoin across regions. Experts from the company have reported a significant decline in the share of American players, whose dominance peaked between 2020 and 2021. The downward trend has been observed since the sharp drop in BTC price last year, with the share of Americans decreasing by 11% since mid-2022. During the same period, the share in the Asian region increased by 9.9%.

– Adam Back, the creator of the Hashcash algorithm and CEO of Blockstream, is considered one of the key figures in the field of modern cryptography and the crypto industry. In a recent conversation with Decrypt, this prominent scientist stated that the cryptocurrency market is "anti-fragile." Like water, it flows and, when faced with obstacles, finds alternative paths. Therefore, if any major crypto exchange operating in the United States stops serving its customers due to regulatory pressure, the industry will eventually find a way out. In the event of restrictions on bank transfers in the US, bitcoin traders would simply shift towards opening bank accounts in other jurisdictions in euros or Swiss francs and engage in trading using a different currency.

– Journalists from Bitcoin.com conducted a survey with six popular AI chatbots regarding the potential of Bitcoin becoming a global reserve currency. The experiment involved ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT 4 from OpenAI, Bard from Google, Claude Instant and Claude 4 from Anthropic, as well as the creative mode of Bing AI.
ChatGPT 3.5 struggled to assess the potential of bitcoin and other digital assets, citing existing "issues and uncertainties." According to its response, the likelihood of achieving reserve currency status depends on "current events and the evolution of the crypto currency ecosystem." However, it noted that its information was based on data available until September 2021.
Bard emphasized the need for wider adoption of bitcoin by central banks and other financial institutions, as well as the improvement of price stability and advancements in blockchain technology. The bot stated, "If bitcoin can overcome these challenges, it could become a global reserve asset within the next decade. However, it is also possible that this may never happen or that it will take much longer to achieve this goal."
Claude Instant, pointing out "significant obstacles" for bitcoin in terms of stability and recognition, considered it unlikely for BTC to become a reserve currency in the next 5-10 years. As for the 10–15-year horizon, Claude 4 estimated the probability of such an event to be in the low to moderate range. ChatGPT 4 also stated that it would take "several years or even decades" for bitcoin to achieve reserve currency status and warned that it "cannot confidently predict the future."
Bing AI took a "creative" approach and listed a range of factors that will determine the future of bitcoin. These factors include widespread adoption of the asset, including by financial institutions, innovation and improvement of technology, scalability and user-friendliness, regulation and legal status management, taxation and compliance with regulatory requirements, and competition and interaction with other crypto assets and fiat currencies.
In summary, it can be said that all six Artificial Intelligences behaved like experienced politicians and did not provide any specific answers to the question posed.

– According to The Wall Street Journal, the actions of hackers associated with North Korea have caused $3 billion in damage to the crypto industry. Half of this amount was reportedly used to finance a program for the development of ballistic nuclear missiles. As per the statement by U.S. authorities, North Korea has formed a "shadow" army of thousands of IT specialists around the world for these purposes. Cybersecurity experts believe that the "arms race" with North Korean hackers has only just begun.

– Peter Brandt, known as the "Mysterious Market Wizard," has been successful in accurately predicting the crypto winter of 2018 and many other market movements in the digital asset space. Now, this legendary trader and analyst has virtually "buried" all coins except bitcoin. "Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will be able to finish this marathon. All others, including Ethereum, are counterfeits or scams," wrote Brandt.
Many members of the crypto community were puzzled by the fact that a respected analyst placed the second-largest cryptocurrency, ethereum, in the same category as fraudulent projects. In response, Brandt stated, "Silver to BTC's gold is ETH. ETH will likely survive, but the real legacy is BTC."

– Vitalik Buterin, the founder of ethereum, believes that the success of his blockchain depends on three main "transitions" that need to happen almost simultaneously. According to him, the leading altcoin is "failing" without sufficient scaling infrastructure that would make transactions on the network cheaper.
Another factor is related to the transition to smart contract wallets, which has been challenging in terms of user interaction. Moreover, these wallets will need to protect data to fully align with the concept of zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy. The last factor for ethereum's success that Buterin mentioned is privacy. In his opinion, significant improvements in identification systems and the implementation of hidden addresses are necessary.
"Achieving scalability, wallet security, and user privacy is crucial for the future of ethereum. It's not just about technical feasibility but also about practical accessibility for ordinary users," concluded the network's founder.

– Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has noted that liquidity in the crypto market has dried up for quite some time, and many people have been blaming the SEC for what is happening. Most of them believe it is the end for the entire industry. According to Cowen, altcoins will face retribution, while Bitcoin dominance will continue to grow.
A similar sentiment was expressed by renowned trader Gareth Soloway, who compared the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. He stated that the collapse that occurred in the early 2000s would repeat itself in this industry. Soloway asserted that the "system needs to be cleansed of garbage" in order to thrive. According to him, 95% of all tokens "will strive toward zero."

– ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood has doubled down on her bitcoin forecast, stating that the leading cryptocurrency will reach seven-figure values. In an interview with Bloomberg, she reaffirmed her confidence that the $1 million target for BTC will be achieved.
According to Wood, the current global economic environment increases her trust in the flagship crypto asset. "The more uncertainty and volatility in the global economy, the more our confidence grows in Bitcoin, which has been and remains a hedge against inflation," she stated. The head of ARK Invest believes that the greater risk lies not in inflation but in deflation, which she sees looming over the world. In this case, the primary cryptocurrency would act as an antidote against the crisis in the traditional financial system.

– Prominent investor and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, has analyzed the market capitalization chart of the crypto market and arrived at discouraging conclusions. According to the analyst, the current situation is not what one would want to see. He noted that a breakthrough below the support of the 200-week moving average (SMA) indicates a continuation of the downward trend.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, conducted a Twitter poll on the importance of the U.S. presidential candidates supporting cryptocurrencies for the upcoming 2024 elections. As of May 29, the poll had garnered participation from 31,200 users. Nearly 84% of the respondents answered "yes," while only 16% voted against it.
It is worth noting that in recent times, some American politicians have increasingly expressed their willingness to foster the development of the crypto industry if elected as president. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida recently stated his opposition to the implementation of a digital dollar and voiced his support for Bitcoin. He criticized the approach of the Joe Biden administration towards crypto assets, believing that overly stringent regulatory measures could stifle the industry's growth in the country.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Democratic Party candidate, is also convinced that Bitcoin can save people from financial collapse. The politician pledged to protect the rights of Bitcoin owners and miners if he becomes president.

– After significant and tumultuous events in the crypto space in 2022 and early 2023, such as the FTX crash in November and numerous other bankruptcies including Celsius, Voyager Digital, and Three Arrows Capital, bitcoin managed to reduce its losses and grow by over 60% since the beginning of this year. Business Insider gathered expert opinions on what could happen to the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2023.
Charmyn Ho, Head of Analytics at the crypto exchange Bybit, believes that bitcoin won't be able to reach a new all-time high until the macroeconomic environment becomes clearer. This depends on the forecast of a potential recession in the US, Europe, and other major economies due to an inverted yield curve combined with a range of other unfavourable macroeconomic factors such as inflation. Another factor to consider is the halving, although it is expected to occur in April 2024.
According to Jagdeep Sidhu, President of the Syscoin Foundation, despite several crypto storms, the ecosystem's resilience remains evident. The market has recovered from the FTX debacle, showcasing its ability to absorb shocks and evolve. If inflation in the US decreases and there is more regulatory clarity regarding digital assets, bitcoin could reach $38,000 by the end of the year, roughly 40% higher than the current value.
Based on Tim Shan's scenario, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange Dexalot, bitcoin will trade in a range of $25,000 to $32,000 by the end of 2023. However, if inflation remains high, it may return to the lows seen earlier this year.
David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, is confident that bitcoin will finish the year above $35,000. According to him, traders are not rushing to invest significant amounts of money and want to assess the direction of the leading cryptocurrency and the market as a whole. By the fourth quarter of 2023, much of the uncertainty should dissipate.

– According to analysts at JPMorgan, the price of bitcoin is expected to rise to $45,000. This is indicated by the current price of gold, which is nearly $2,000 per ounce. Analysts state that these two assets typically move in tandem. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the value of physical gold held outside central banks is currently valued at approximately $3 trillion. This implies a price of digital gold around $45,000 per coin, assuming that the volume of bitcoin in private investor portfolios aligns with the volume of the precious metal.
However, the $45,000 price is considered by JPMorgan analysts as the upper limit for bitcoin, suggesting limited potential for the asset. Nevertheless, this calculation does not take into account the halving event and the increased costs for miners. The upcoming halving in 2024 will automatically double the cost of bitcoin mining to around $40,000, and historically, this figure has served as the lower bound for the asset's price.
Regarding Ethereum, JPMorgan notes that the altcoin may face some selling pressure and is expected to lag behind bitcoin in terms of growth in the near term.

– Renowned cryptocurrency analyst, Tone Vays, believes that bitcoin is exiting its consolidation phase, with many investors having already "bought the bitcoin dip," indicating that the leading cryptocurrency is gearing up for further growth. However, in order to continue this upward trajectory, bitcoin needs to overcome resistance at the $30,000 level. If the bulls manage to do so, BTC is poised to reach new price highs.
"It is indeed time for bitcoin to rise," says Vays. "Although, when looking at the weekly chart, the bulls lack strength. [...] There is still time to overcome resistance. We need to surpass $30,000, reverse the Lucid SAR indicator, and then we will rise to $34,000, where another resistance level awaits."
For reference, the Lucid SAR indicator is a variation of the Parabolic SAR indicator. It is a trend-following indicator that combines price and time to calculate trends and determine entry and exit points.

– Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, believes that 2023 will be highly volatile for bitcoin due to the actions of the US Federal Reserve, but he does not expect the cryptocurrency to reach new records. "I don't think bitcoin will reach $70,000 this year. It is more likely that we will surpass this level next year, after the halving. Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. And then, I expect an apocalypse. This situation will not occur when everyone expects it... We are currently sitting on a powder keg - the US has printed a huge amount of money, there is no trust in it, and people are trying to earn a living," muses Hayes.
It's worth noting that these are the personal opinions and speculations of Arthur Hayes, and they do not represent a guaranteed forecast for the future performance of bitcoin. Cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to various factors, making it challenging to predict their exact trajectory.

– Researchers from VanEck have presented three price scenarios for Ethereum in 2030. In the base case scenario, the coin would be valued at $11,849. In the bullish scenario, the ETH price would reach $51,006, while in the unfavorable bearish scenario, the coin would plummet to $343. "Our estimates are based on the assumption that Ethereum will become the dominant global open-source settlement network. A significant portion of the commercial activity of high-profit potential business sectors will be conducted on the platform. The dominant platform is likely to capture the lion's share of the market," write VanEck analysts.
The report also notes that Ethereum is likely to become a store of wealth similar to bitcoin but with some differences. "We argue that ETH goes beyond being a transactional currency or a commodity similar to oil or gas. We believe that the coin is not a full-fledged store of value like Bitcoin due to the potential for code changes in Ethereum and the overall utility-focused nature of the project. However, this cryptocurrency can become a savings asset for government organizations seeking to maximize human capital.".

– The government of Bali, Indonesia, implemented strict measures at the end of May against cryptocurrency payments for goods and services, reminding tourists that the Indonesian rupiah is the only legal tender. Crypto tourists will face severe consequences, including administrative sanctions, deportation, and even criminal prosecution. As a result, some members of the crypto community have reconsidered their plans to visit Bali.
Tourism plays a crucial role in the island's economy, contributing 28% of its revenue. If a portion of tourists stops visiting the resort, it could lead to various economic problems, including increased unemployment and a decline in people's income.

– Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that the bitcoin network can be an effective tool in combating bots and fake accounts. The businessman cited the use of bots on social media as an example. According to him, the digital "civil war" in modern society is fuelled by billions of fake accounts that sow hatred among real users. With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence, creating deepfakes has become much easier, while detecting them has become more challenging.

The head of MicroStrategy believes that decentralized identity (DID) solutions can address this issue, increase trust, and ensure secure and independent data exchange. For example, if someone wants to launch billions of bots on Twitter, it would cost them billions of transactions. By integrating cryptocurrencies into social networks and leveraging the capabilities of the decentralized bitcoin network, such actions would become costly and have serious consequences, according to Saylor.

– According to popular analyst Credible Crypto, bitcoin could replicate the impulse waves of growth observed in previous bull cycles and set a new price record as early as 2023. "I keep hearing that it's unrealistic for Bitcoin to set a new price record this year. But I think we need to compare it to the last impulse in 2020. Remember, it took Bitcoin about three months to surpass the $10,000 level. But within the following two months, it grew by an additional 90%. And just four months later, it set a price record, increasing fivefold from $10,000. So don't tell me that anything is impossible for Bitcoin. We'll likely see it at new highs, possibly even this year," wrote Credible Crypto.

– Nova, a specialist in tracking crypto whales' activities, has discovered an average trader who has become a major holder of digital assets in just five months. Trader 0x743 has executed successful trades since January of this year and now boasts a record realized profit of over 10,000%, with their current portfolio valued at approximately $578,345. Nova noted that the crypto whale's success is attributed to a successful trading strategy rather than mere luck. 0x743 did not make reckless purchases and demonstrated "discipline and good trading behaviour."
It's worth noting that the crypto market is highly volatile, and extraordinary profits come with inherent risks. Individual trading outcomes can vary, and it's important for traders to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and make informed decisions when engaging in cryptocurrency trading.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– Romanian crypto investor Daniel Nita purchased 10,000 pizzas for 1.01 BTC (~$26,800 at the time of purchase) to celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day. Nita made the purchase at Vintage Pub in Bucharest, paying through Binance Pay. He then organized a party where he handed out pizzas on the city streets.
It's worth recalling that every year on May 22, the cryptocurrency community celebrates Bitcoin Pizza Day. This holiday was inspired by a landmark event in the industry when, in 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz was the first in the world to buy two Papa John's pizzas, paying for them with 10,000 BTC. However, the primacy of this purchase is now being disputed. In our previous review, we detailed that four months before Hanyecz, someone named Sabunir might have sold a JPEG image for 500 bitcoins, which was about $1 at the time.

– The United States is at risk of losing its leading position in the cryptocurrency industry, potentially giving way to the UAE, South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland, warns ARK Invest analyst Yassine Elmandjra. In his view, the ambiguous regulatory environment negatively impacts existing companies and deters new players. The expert noted that the recent flight of market makers Jane Street and Jump Trading from the United States is a sign of this negative reaction. Citing data from Coin Metrics, he also added that over the past two months, the volume of Bitcoin trading in the country has fallen by 75% - from $20 million per day in March to $4 million in May.
Recall that just in 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has brought claims against crypto exchanges Bittrex, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Genesis. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also filed a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao.

– Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that the upcoming halving and regulatory intervention in the crypto industry will positively impact bitcoin and strengthen its dominance. Saylor pointed to the growing interest of investors shifting towards bitcoin from other tokens. According to him, BTC's competitors naturally fall away after more stringent industry regulation. This became particularly noticeable after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that "everything except bitcoin" falls under the securities laws.
"Crypto tokens and crypto securities will be regulated, and they might even cease to exist. Bitcoin is the only commodity that the SEC does not intend to regulate. Bitcoin is the safest network and the safest asset," stated the MicroStrategy CEO. In his opinion, a steady outflow of capital from the rest of the crypto space into Bitcoin will soon begin, and he already sees the start of a new bull cycle.
For reference: As of April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, along with its subsidiary companies, owned about 140,000 BTC. The company paid a total of $4.17 billion for them. Thus, the average purchase price amounted to $29,803 per bitcoin.

– Obi Nwosu, CEO of the crypto platform Fedi, like Saylor, has stated that bitcoin's superiority over other cryptocurrencies is apparent in all aspects. The specialist expressed confidence that Bitcoin has the fastest, cheapest, simplest, most decentralized, and safest ecosystem. By the end of 2023, this will become even more apparent, as effective solutions for network functionality development are increasingly emerging. However, unlike Michael Saylor, Obi Nwosu believes that there will still be a place for other cryptocurrencies in the crypto space.

– Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone expects a collapse in the bitcoin exchange rate to support at $7,366. This forecast is based on the downward movement of the 52-week moving average (MA) on the BTC chart. McGlone notes that before the massive pump in 2020, this line, on the contrary, was moving upwards.
According to the expert, the negative trend will continue, and the cryptocurrency will face hard times. "The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, despite the banking panic. The drop in commodity prices may argue in favor of the potential for deflation of high-risk assets. The simultaneous increase in the cost of bitcoin and a rally in the stock market seems unlikely," McGlone said.
It is worth noting that not so long ago, at the end of last year, he gave a completely opposite forecast. Then, according to him, bitcoin was supposed to appreciate to $100,000. 

– A trader known as Dave the Wave, known for several accurate forecasts, believes that bitcoin is currently consolidating in the "buy zone" of the logarithmic growth curve. This curve evaluates the long-term highs and lows of the leading cryptocurrency throughout its entire life cycle, ignoring short-term volatility.
The analyst notes that, based on the current market structure, a rise above $32,000 will signal a breakthrough of the consolidation channel. Therefore, according to Dave the Wave, any purchase below $31,000 remains a great deal. In his conservative estimate, the target price of bitcoin by the end of the year should be around $40,000.

– The online publication BeInCrypto decided to find out whether BTC could continue to rise, or if the prolonged sideways trend would end with another drop. Opinions within the crypto community were divided. For example, a forecast from popular blogger CryptoKaleo does not rule out Bitcoin updating its local maximum. Signals that allow betting on the coin's growth were also seen by the trader known as DaanCrypto. He noted BTC's rebound from the weekly moving average (MA200). From a technical analysis perspective, this behavior of the cryptocurrency could indicate buyer strength.
Crypto blogger Nebraskangooner, on the other hand, sees signals for a decline on the chart. His forecast does not rule out the cryptocurrency falling to $25,500. This, the blogger believes, is indicated by the coin's exit from the symmetrical triangle formed on the chart. The negative Bitcoin forecast was supported by typically optimistic analyst Inmortal. He also does not rule out a BTC drop to as low as $22,000. However, Inmortal is confident that the cryptocurrency will be able to quickly recover its positions.
There's a well-known saying that goes, "So many people, so many opinions." In this case, it can be paraphrased as, "As many analysts as there are forecasts."

– Prominent investor and former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, is once again in the news. He previously made headlines with a sensational bet of $1.5 million that bitcoin would reach a value of $1 million within 90 days. This prediction was made in March 2023, but Srinivasan prematurely admitted his loss in early May.
Now, Srinivasan has declared that "if Twitter was the central theme of the presidential election in 2016, in 2024, for the first time, it could be bitcoin." As evidence, the investor cited statements from U.S. President Joe Biden that he does not intend to agree to a deal with the Republican Party aimed at protecting wealthy individuals and cryptocurrency traders who evade taxes. Srinivasan believes another proof of his correctness is the ongoing debates among American legislators over cryptocurrency regulation and the Web 3.0 space.
Interestingly, another Democratic presidential candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr., has challenged Biden by hailing Bitcoin as a tool to support democracy.

– Michael van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, has told his Twitter followers that a successful retest of the $26,280 support level (MA200) could signify the end of bitcoin's correction and consolidation. Therefore, he believes this level is a good one at which to accumulate bitcoin.
"If we look at past periods, a retest of the 200-day moving average has always been a great time to accumulate bitcoin. Over the past six months, bitcoin has spent a lot of time below this indicator, making it [BTC] undervalued. The next week will be key: a quick retest and bounce upward will signify the end of Bitcoin's correction," the crypto analyst reasons. Michael van de Poppe is confident that, for bitcoin's future growth to be confirmed, it needs to secure a level above $27,000: this will demonstrate the bullish sentiment of investors. However, if BTC fails to conquer and hold this level, it is likely to roll back to $26,000.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


– According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, in the event of a US default on its national debt, 7.8% of professional and 11.3% of retail investors would opt for the primary cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, 7.8% and 10.2% would rely on the US dollar, respectively.
Gold tops the list of safe-haven assets. Despite the current price of the precious metal being close to its historical high ($2,000 per ounce), about half of the surveyed investors from both categories have chosen it. The report highlights the current shortage of alternatives to gold for hedging purposes.
US Treasury bills ranks as the second most popular asset, with 14-15% of respondents opting to purchase them. Journalists see a certain irony in this, as it is precisely these debt securities that might be subject to default. Bitcoin comes in third, closely followed by the US dollar, with the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc trailing behind. 

– Debates have erupted online over the first purchase made with BTC. A version has emerged claiming that the first purchase was not, in fact, the legendary pizza. A story is being discussed on Twitter about a user by the name of Sabunir who tried to sell a JPEG picture for 500 bitcoins in 2010, which was about $1 at the time. Evidence provided includes a screenshot with the date of January 24, 2010: four months before Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It is also claimed that a certain user named Satoshi Nakamoto even tried to participate in the transaction.
However, it was unclear whether the transaction had actually taken place. Therefore, Gige Energy co-founder Matt Lohstroh decided to conduct his own investigation. It turned out that the transaction did indeed occur. According to on-chain data, 500 BTC (about $13.3 million at the current exchange rate) were indeed transferred to Sabunir's wallet on January 24, 2010. This means that this image is actually the first item purchased with BTC.
Does this mean that instead of celebrating the annual Pizza Day on May 22nd, crypto enthusiasts will have to mark January 24 as JPEG Image Day? But what about the "Bitcoin Pizza" pizzeria owned by Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano? You have to agree, "JPEG Pizza" doesn't sound quite as appetizing.

– About half of North Korea's missile program is funded through cyberattacks and cryptocurrency thefts, according to CNN, citing White House officials. They say that US intelligence services are working to identify the companies and individuals associated with this, while the Treasury Department is tracking the stolen cryptocurrency.
At the same time, Nikkei newspaper reported that since 2017, hackers from North Korea have stolen cryptocurrencies from accounts opened in Japan amounting to approximately $720 million. About $540 million was stolen from Vietnamese citizens, and another $497 million from US citizens.

– According to data from analytics firm Glassnode, the number of bitcoin addresses holding at least 1 BTC has increased by ~190,000 since February 2022 and surpassed the 1 million mark. The most notable increases occurred during the sharp decline of bitcoin in June 2022 (the bankruptcy of crypto fund 3AC, preceded by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem) and after November 11 (the FTX crash).
As for forecasts, Glassnode is "confident in a medium-term target of $35,000 as external pressures ease." "The Fed will pause rate hikes in June [...] - optimal for an upward movement [of bitcoin] during the summer. The dollar index has crossed below a significant moving average - explosive movements ahead," the agency's analysts explain.

– Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund Morgan Creek Digital has reaffirmed his forecast of an inevitable bull rally in the digital asset market. He believes that the "crypto-summer" will likely begin in mid-June. According to him, bitcoin could make a significant breakthrough right now, as a technical reversal pattern is forming on the chart. "If you look at the chart [starting from May 2022], you'll see a beautiful inverted head and shoulders at the $27,000 level," Yusko writes. "It's a really interesting technical pattern. And you know, I think we need some good news to give it a boost."
As for the collapse of several US banks this year, the CEO of Morgan Creek believes that the destabilization of the sector was provoked to facilitate the smooth implementation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

– Paul Tudor Jones, head of hedge fund Tudor Investment Corporation and a consistent advocate for investing in bitcoin, has stated that the premier cryptocurrency has become less attractive in the current regulatory and economic climate. He noted that bitcoin now has "real problems, because in the US, the entire regulatory apparatus is against cryptocurrencies." In addition, the billionaire anticipates a decrease in inflation in the US, which makes hedging assets less attractive. Bitcoin is often perceived precisely as an asset for protection against inflation.
Paul Tudor Jones himself continues to hold a small amount of bitcoin and has no plans to sell the cryptocurrency even in the distant future. However, he had previously planned to invest up to 5% of his fortune in bitcoin, but it seems that he has now abandoned such plans.

– Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya believes that the devaluation of the dollar actually stimulates the US economy. According to this venture capitalist, the dollar's dominant position in the global economy remains indisputable, despite trends to move away from this currency. It's important to remember that approximately 187 countries rely on the dollar. A weaker dollar allows these nations to purchase American goods at a more favourable price. They all see that importing goods becomes cheaper, their economies improve, and as a result, the dollar still feels strong.
Palihapitiya also believes that in the long run, the US government will likely not be able to avoid devaluing its currency. According to the billionaire, the best way to deal with this trend is to invest in risky assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

– An Indian YouTuber decided to visit 40 countries in 400 days, using only bitcoin. Paco De La India, as he calls himself, has already visited 7 countries from different regions of the planet. He managed to raise the necessary amount for his travels by selling all his furniture and also through crowdfunding. As a result of his voyage, he was able to draw a few conclusions:
1. Paco believes that the volatility inherent in the market deters people from bitcoin. People are much more willing to use stablecoins, such as USDT, for transactions, while bitcoin is kept in HODL mode. In general, acceptance is happening, but this process needs to be accelerated.
2. The traveller noted that people are usually more generous during a bull market, which makes it easier to receive donations. Paco started his journey when bitcoin was trading around $50,000 and was moving towards an all-time high of nearly $69,000. "Donations were coming in, everyone was very happy... but gradually everything started to shrink," Paco says. "I couldn't travel as freely, so I was always looking for those who could take me in their homes. And this also gave me an idea of the local people."
Unfortunately, Paco's exciting journey had to be interrupted due to the fall in the BTC price and regulatory uncertainty, which affected some of his sponsors (primarily due to the closure of the Paxful trading platform). However, Paco is hopeful and intends to continue exploring where in the world it is most convenient to pay with bitcoin.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- The flagship cryptocurrency market has been under significant selling pressure in recent days. Experts from the WhaleWire publication note that transaction fees in the bitcoin ecosystem have reached global extremes for the third time in history (similar occurrences were observed in 2017 and 2021). Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has twice suspended bitcoin withdrawals due to network congestion. To expedite the processing of the accumulated transactions, Binance raised its withdrawal fees. The situation is exacerbated by an investigation that US authorities have launched against the exchange. According to Bloomberg, it is suspected of violating sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
All of this has caused fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) among cryptocurrency market participants, leading to a decrease in the number of active addresses to yearly lows. Against this backdrop, bitcoin has plunged below $28,000. Analysts believe that a "head and shoulders" pattern is forming on bitcoin's daily chart, and the possibility of a deep correction down to the $24,000 mark cannot be ruled out. However, CoinGape experts emphasize that the supply of bitcoin on centralized platforms is at its lowest level since 2017, indicating that the upcoming correction may be of a local nature.

- People may be losing faith in the dollar, but that doesn't mean bitcoin can become the world's reserve currency. Billionaire Warren Buffett made this statement at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting. He clarified that he does not see any candidates to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. At the same time, Buffett called the continued money printing "madness," while simultaneously expressing confidence in the person responsible for it: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Buffett, nobody understands the situation with government debt better than the head of the regulatory body.
The legendary investor also believes that the top management of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank should be held accountable for the issues that have arisen in the operations of these banks.

- Representatives of CNBC criticized Warren Buffett for his extremely negative attitude towards bitcoin. In response, Six Sigma Black Belt founder James Ryan stated that it's not right to criticize the wealthiest investor. However, Ryan emphasized that Buffett does not believe in gold either, as he thinks that "the precious metal does not produce anything and does not generate cash flow."
- Best-selling author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad and economist Robert Kiyosaki often reiterates that the American and global economies are heading towards difficult times. This time, he told his 2.4 million Twitter followers that the sharp increase in the yield of one-month US Treasury bills indicates that a recession is likely approaching. "Does this mean the global banking system is collapsing? [...]", wrote the crypto enthusiast. "So, now focus on gold, silver, and bitcoin." It is worth noting that Kiyosaki predicts that the price of bitcoin will soon rise to $100,000.

- Michael Van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, analysed the relationship between the banking sector and the crypto market.
Shares of American banks fell in response to US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's attempt to calm the financial markets. Within a few hours after the official's speech on May 3, shares of the banking holding company PacWest Bancorp fell almost 58%, and Western Alliance dropped more than 28%. Other financial institutions in the market also experienced declines, such as Comerica (-10.06%), Zion Bancorp (-9.71%), and KeyCorp (-6.93%).
Using a 30-minute chart, Van de Poppe showed that while bank stocks were falling in price, bitcoin and gold were growing in value. According to the EightGlobal founder, uncertainty and distrust towards authorities' statements are growing among bankers. Such sentiments may lead to even greater problems in traditional markets and trigger further growth for both digital and physical gold.

- According to Justin Chapman, Senior Vice President at Northern Trust, institutional investors lost interest in cryptocurrencies after March 2022. Their appetite did not return even after the bullish growth this year. Executives of major financial institutions have shifted their focus to blockchain technology, particularly its potential in tokenizing real assets such as gold for clients.
"Since 2022, things have calmed down on the institutional side," Chapman said. "Before that, we saw traditional fund managers eager to launch crypto funds, ETPs in Europe, which are the equivalent of ETFs in the US – all of that has subsided. Even hedge funds, which are quite active in the crypto market, have definitely reduced their presence."

- The government of Liechtenstein will allow citizens to use bitcoin to pay for government services. This was announced by the country's Prime Minister, Daniel Risch, although he did not specify a timeline. According to him, the government will accept cryptocurrency from citizens and exchange it for the national currency. A similar approach is already used by some Swiss municipalities, particularly the canton of Zug.

- More and more Latin American (LATAM) countries are considering the possibility of adopting bitcoin as a legal means of payment for goods and services. Some of them want to follow in the footsteps of El Salvador, which has already done so at the legislative level. Among these countries are Ecuador, Peru, Mexico, and Argentina. However, experts point out a key barrier to this initiative: the rise in transaction fees, which could make the move impractical.

- The Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland (BCUS), Gabriel Makhlouf, has urged citizens to be sceptical about investing in cryptocurrencies, calling such investments high-risk and dangerous. He stated that the value of crypto assets is not backed by anything, which means they have no social or economic value. Moreover, they are not properly regulated, causing numerous disagreements among lawmakers and officials. "Investing in such products is like buying a lottery ticket: you might win, but most likely, you will lose. Therefore, it's hardly appropriate to call them investments. 'Ponzi scheme' provides a more accurate definition of cryptocurrencies," said the head of the Irish Central Bank.
Makhlouf's speech took place just a few weeks after the European Parliament voted for a bill on regulating cryptocurrencies in the EU (MiCA). The Irish official assured that he welcomes the document, but he doubts that MiCA will be fully implemented by 2025.

- Trader and analyst under the pseudonym Altcoin Sherpa suggested that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could soon drop to $25,000. According to his opinion, this price largely coincides with the 200-day EMA, the Fibonacci 0.382 level, and serves as a level that was previously tested twice as support/resistance. If the bearish trend continues in the coming days, he wrote, the BTC price will fall to the $26,800 support level. If this support is breached, the next target will be the $25,200 level.

- Researchers from DocumentingBTC have named bitcoin the best investment of the decade. An investor who bought BTC for $100 exactly 10 years ago would now have $25,600 in their account. In second place are NVIDIA stocks - $8,599. The honourable third place goes to Tesla - $4,475.
Apple investors could have received $1,208, Microsoft - $1,111, Netflix - $1,040, Amazon - $830, Facebook - $818, and by purchasing Google stocks, investors would now have $504 in their account. Finally, investing in physical, not digital, gold would have turned the initial $100 into just $134.

- Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT has joined the quest to unravel one of the biggest mysteries in the crypto universe: it attempted to identify the creator of BTC, Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the chatbot's calculations, there is a 60% probability that Satoshi is indeed an individual, rather than a group of developers, and most likely, it is Nick Szabo, a well-known computer scientist and cryptographer. It was this scientist who once proposed the idea of smart contracts and the BitGold protocol, which many consider a predecessor to bitcoin.
Szabo emerged as the winner on ChatGPT's list of contenders, with 30%. Hal Finney and Craig Wright ranked second and third, respectively, with 20% and 10%. However, the chatbot acknowledged that it cannot provide any direct "evidence". You can read more about each of these individuals on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- The idea of launching a digital dollar CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) in the US has faced active criticism from Republican politicians. In February, Congressman Tom Emmer introduced a bill to protect "financial privacy" when using central bank digital currencies. He also stated that CBDC technology offends American values and may contribute to "financial control" over citizens.
In April, another Republican senator, Ted Cruz, called the launch of the digital dollar "extremely dangerous" for society, as the government would gain access to every transaction. At the same time, he praised Bitcoin and talked about his investments in the asset.
Best-selling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined the chorus of Republicans, consistently urging people to buy "more gold, silver, and bitcoins." "In his book '1984,' George Orwell warned, 'Big Brother is watching.' Biden's CBDC is that Big Brother," Kiyosaki wrote.

- Jenny Johnson, CEO of investment firm Franklin Templeton, which manages assets worth $1.5 trillion, criticized bitcoin, stating that it is the biggest distraction from real innovation - blockchain technology. She also warned that the crypto industry should prepare for tighter regulatory rules. The head of Franklin Templeton further cautioned that bitcoin will never be able to become a global currency, as the US government will not allow it to happen. "I can tell you that if bitcoin becomes so important that it threatens the dollar as a reserve currency, the US will restrict its use." In contrast to the US, Johnson listed Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates as crypto-friendly jurisdictions.

- The White House released a report last September stating that cryptocurrency miners consume more energy than the entire country of Australia and account for between 0.9% and 1.7% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. In response to this, the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden (CEA) has proposed a 30% tax on miners to discourage their negative impact on the climate. This new measure is expected to generate approximately $3.5 billion in revenue for the government over the next ten years and serve as another method for authorities to exert pressure on an industry they consider a threat.
According to Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, President Joe Biden will sign a law within the next 12 months that will establish new regulations for the cryptocurrency market.

- Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that bitcoin will soon outpace other digital assets. "I hold the view that bitcoin will bury all the pretenders. In the end, there will be only one king of the hill," he wrote.
The expert drew attention to the Bitcoin dominance chart, which tracks the share of the first cryptocurrency in the total market capitalization of the crypto market. According to Brandt, the indicator is preparing for a breakthrough after a two-year consolidation in the form of a large rectangle. While the trend is in a "constraining range," the breakout from this range will be crucial for the asset, the analyst explained. Over the past five years, BTC's share has dropped to 32.4% in 2018 and risen to 71.9% in 2021. At the time of writing, it stands at 47.0%. The indicator likely needs to surpass the 50% mark to initiate a bullish movement.

- Investor and billionaire Ray Dalio admitted that although he owns bitcoin, he prefers gold. In his opinion, the first cryptocurrency serves as good inflation insurance, but not a full-fledged alternative to the precious metal. "I don't understand why people lean more towards bitcoin than gold," he wrote. "At the international level, gold is the third-largest reserve asset for central banks, following dollars, euros, gold, and then Japanese yen."
According to Dalio, the precious metal is "timeless and universal." Bitcoin, on the other hand, requires close attention from investors due to its volatility. "You have to be prepared for a significant drop, around 80% or so," the billionaire warned.

- Coinbase Business Director Conor Grogan claims to have found a "jailbreak" (vulnerability) in ChatGPT's software. This "jailbreak" allows for obtaining AI (artificial intelligence) predictions concerning various events. "ChatGPT predicts the future on absolutely any topic (including a person's time of death) and quantifies the probability of the event," Grogan wrote, adding that "ChatGPT clearly sympathizes with BTC while being much more sceptical about altcoins." According to its forecast, there is a 15% chance that BTC will lose 99.9% of its value by 2035 and become irrelevant. In the case of Ethereum, the chances of such a scenario are 20%, with LTC - 35%, and with DOGE - 45%.
ChatGPT stated previously that the price of bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2024, after which it would increase on average by $25,000 per year and reach $300,000 by 2030. However, the AI honestly warned that it cannot confidently predict cryptocurrency prices. There are many factors that the chatbot cannot account for, such as regulatory changes, government actions, wars, catastrophes, and more. Therefore, while it may be interesting to consider ChatGPT's forecasts, relying on them when developing trading strategies would be unwise, to put it mildly.

- Bitcoin could surge by $20,000 if the US defaults on its debts, according to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Currency Research at British bank Standard Chartered. In an interview with Business Insider, he stated that this could happen in July 2023 if Congress does not approve raising the debt limit to a new level. However, the expert called such a default an "unlikely event" but with "massive consequences."
Kendrick believes that bitcoin will not grow linearly. More likely, after the default, its price will fall by $5,000 in the first days or a week, then sharply increase by $25,000. As for Ethereum, which the analyst considers to be traded like stocks, it is more likely to fall in the case of a default. Kendrick's optimal trading strategy involves opening a long position in bitcoin and a short position in ethereum.
Previously, the Standard Chartered analyst stated that the first cryptocurrency could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2024. Among the main reasons, he cited a banking crisis, halving, and a loosening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

- Research firm Chainalysis discovered that an anonymous hacker has identified 986 crypto wallets allegedly belonging to Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, Federal Security Service, and Foreign Intelligence Service, and has begun hunting for their digital assets. Initially, the hacker destroyed over $300,000 worth of bitcoin stored in these wallets. To do this, they used the OP_RETURN script, which marks transactions as invalid and effectively burns the coins. However, after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the hacker changed their attack strategy. Instead of liquidating digital assets, they began transferring them to wallets owned by organizations providing support to Ukraine.

- Trader under the nickname Bluntz, who predicted the bottom of the BTC bear market in 2018, believes that the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to sustainably consolidate above $30,000 in the foreseeable future. His opinion is based on the fact that BTC has already completed a five-wave bullish trend on the daily chart. Bluntz believes that Bitcoin is currently in the middle of an ABC correction formation, and this could lead to a drop to around $25,000. According to the trader, this drop will be followed by a rise in BTC to $32,000, which will occur in the second half of 2023.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- According to experts from the British bank Standard Chartered, bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, which indicates the end of the so-called "crypto winter", writes Reuters. Standard Chartered believes that at the beginning of 2023 bitcoin profitably took advantage of its status as a "brand haven" for savings and a tool for money transfers. Its further growth will be facilitated by recent turmoil in the banking sector, stabilization of risky assets due to the end of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and increased profitability in crypto mining.
In addition, support for the main cryptocurrency may be provided by the adoption by the European Parliament of the first set of EU rules on the regulation of crypto-asset markets. According to JPMorgan experts, the growth of BTC will also be affected by halving in April 2024.

- The Bitcoin Archive press service reminded that there is less than a year left until the next bitcoin halving. As of April 24, 2023, this procedure is scheduled for April 06, 2024. However, this date is not final and may change, as it has already happened many times before.
A number of market participants believe that this event will be very important for the future value of the flagship cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the cycles for the cryptocurrency are unchanged, and BTC quotes will reach new all-time highs a year or a year and a half after the halving, as happened in previous cycles. Other experts note that the market situation has changed. Bitcoin has become a mass phenomenon and now "other laws and regulations have started to work" for cryptocurrency, so other factors will be decisive, rather than halving.

- Former Goldman Sachs top manager and macro investor Raoul Pal says that the crypto sector will increase from the current 300 million to more than 1 billion users during the next bull cycle. According to him, risky assets like cryptocurrencies are facing an "inevitable wave of liquidity." And such an influx of capital will "illuminate" the industry with new innovations.
The macro investor believes that the Fed has most likely already completed the interest rate hike. He also speaks about the approaching recession, which will force the regulator to "change course" and support the markets by printing money. "This is exactly what happened in 2019 after the Fed's reversal in 2018. The agency will pause very soon or has already done so," Raul Pal explained.

- According to a recent study by DaapGamble, more than a third of TikTok crypto influencers have posted misleading videos about cryptocurrencies and investing in them. Influencers sometimes share unverified misinformation in an attempt to convince inexperienced viewers to invest their money or their parents' money (since many TikTok users are young people) in cryptocurrencies, which leads to a loss of funds. Celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, who was ordered by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pay a fine of $1.26 million for promoting EthereumMax (EMAX), have been criticized.

- After reports of the activation of a bitcoin wallet with 1000 BTC worth more than $27 million, which has been asleep for 12 years, the host of the CNBC program "Crypto Trader" Ran Neuner expressed concern about what was happening. He fears hacking wallets by a special generator, the work of which is based on Artificial Intelligence. "Activating these old BTC addresses can be a really scary phenomenon," Ran Neuner was alarmed. - I hope it's not about hacking. Otherwise, all this can have catastrophic consequences".
It should be noted that such a case of unexpected awakening is far from being the only one. So, an awakened bitcoin whale of the Satoshi era has recently suddenly scattered 400 BTC to several new addresses. And last week, the Whale Alert service reported that another whale with 1128 BTC, after 10.5 years of inactivity, transferred more than 279 BTC worth $7.6 million to new wallets.
These strange events are taking place against the backdrop of a general surge in activity on the bitcoin network: according to Glassnode, the number of transactions exceeds 270,000 per day at the moment, approaching the average monthly cycle highs.

- Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya believes that US regulators have "strangled" the cryptocurrency sector, which is now "on the verge of survival" in the United States. This is done out of concern that digital assets could undermine the dominance of the dollar. However, this will only lead to the fact that American crypto companies will be pushed abroad, and the country will be deprived of opportunities for innovation.
"Cryptocurrencies are dead in America. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler blames crypto assets even for the banking crisis, so it's safe to say that the United States authorities have firmly pointed their weapons at them," Palihapitiya said. The billionaire added that now the main blow of regulators is being taken by good players in the crypto industry, who pay for the collapse of the FTX exchange and the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency hedge funds that "planted a stain" on the reputation of the industry.

- An analyst aka DonAlt, who has repeatedly given an accurate forecast for the price movement of bitcoin, believes that the coin is now ready to return to the level of $30,000. At the same time, he allows a correction up to $20,000, which, in his opinion, should be considered a good level for replenishing the stocks of the main cryptocurrency. At the same time, DonAlt excludes its fall to the lows of November 2022 around $15,400.

- An expert and trader under the nickname Doctor Profit recalled his words that bitcoin groped the bottom at the level of $15,400 and it is unlikely that we will see a repeated decline to this mark. According to him, this dump in November 2022 was a complete capitulation, including for bitcoin miners, some of whom were forced to sell the mined coins and their equipment at a loss.
In his opinion, the market is neither in a bull nor in a bear market now, but in an accumulation phase. At the same time, Dr. Profit has advised traders to closely monitor the correlation between the Chinese stock market and BTC. He believes that China will lift the ban on cryptocurrency and legalize it, which will have a very positive impact on the price of cryptocurrencies in the long run.

- Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts predicts a rise in bitcoin to $50,000 even before halving in April 2024. "The price of bitcoin sinks to the bottom when there are 12-18 months left before the halving. The structure of the current cycle is similar to the previous ones. Nevertheless, many factors have changed: the network has become noticeably more stable, but bitcoin has never experienced a long economic downturn, "said Coutts. If his prediction turns out to be correct, bitcoin will rise in price by about 220% by April 2024 from the bottom reached in last November.

- A popular analyst under the nickname PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow model, expects bitcoin to grow significantly. "My predictions continue to come true within the framework of the S2F model. Before halving, you should expect $32,000 per bitcoin, then $60,000. Then [after halving] $100,000 will be the minimum, and the maximum rate can reach $1 million. But, on average, after the next halving, the BTC rate should reach $542,000," PlanB wrote. At the same time, the analyst stressed that the behavior of the crypto market is fully consistent with S2F, so its critics are simply untenable.

- Legendary investor Warren Buffett has called bitcoin "rat poison squared." And he has recently stated that BTC is a token for gambling, noting that "it has no intrinsic value." However, statistics show that the well-known entrepreneur has been wrong in his judgments. If Buffett had added just 2.5% to his portfolio in bitcoins in 2014, this would have increased the investor's total return by 20%.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Bobby Lee, founder of the Ballet app and former CEO of the BTCC China crypto exchange, noted signs of bitcoin recovery after the 2022 crypto winter in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It has been like this for a long time. Cryptocurrency has these four-year cycles [...] and now we're almost back on track. It looks inspiring,” said the industry veteran.
According to Lee, amid the banking crisis, digital currencies have demonstrated the qualities of safe-haven assets. “People have begun to realize that their money in the bank is not necessarily in place. Institutions lend these funds to other enterprises and firms. And cryptocurrencies like bitcoin provide self-storage and full control over resources,” he said.
Lee also commented on the regulatory framework for US financial markets, calling it “the most mature and established regulatory regime.” According to the head of Ballet, supervisory agencies like the SEC, after a decade of calls for tougher policies regarding the crypto industry, have changed it to a more favorable one. Lee was also enthusiastic about the adoption of digital asset regulations in Hong Kong. In his opinion, the decisions of the authorities of both jurisdictions demonstrate a global shift towards the recognition of cryptocurrencies.

- Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Communications Director and founder of SkyBridge Capital, said he has not lost his enthusiasm for bitcoin. The investor added that he is more optimistic about the first cryptocurrency than ever.
Unlike Bobby Lee, he criticized the head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, for the "mess" in the department. Scaramucci believes that the first cryptocurrency should be classified as a commodity and not subject to regulation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named the condition for bitcoin to reach $40,000. In his opinion, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will rise to this level when the US Federal Reserve starts to reduce the key rate. “The most profitable trades have been and will continue to be longs on gold, euro, bitcoin and Ethereum: these assets will do well when the Fed stops raising [the base rate] and starts lowering it,” Novogratz said. He also predicted a reduction in loans amid the collapse of US banks. In his opinion, this could lead to a credit crisis, and the Fed, against the background of a “slowdown in the economy”, will have to cut the rate more aggressively than expected.
Galaxy Digital CEO called the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) lawsuit against the Binance bitcoin exchange, filed at the end of March, and its accusation of intentionally violating the rules established by the agency as the main uncertainty for the cryptocurrency market.

- Ark Invest has looked beyond Mike Novogratz and has announced the timeline for bitcoin to reach $1 million. “In the next decade, the value of bitcoin could reach $1 million as the digital economy grows,” said Yassine Elmandjra, an analyst at the company. He acknowledged that the 30x coin price growth forecast looks incredible, but it is “quite reasonable” if you look at the history of cryptocurrency development.
According to the Ark Invest analyst, statements that it is now too late to invest in BTC are wrong. The expert noted the impressive performance of bitcoin in recent times, which now makes digital gold an attractive component of investment portfolios. According to Elmandjra, a reasonable share of bitcoin in institutions should be between 2.5% and 6.5%, depending on the overall return of the portfolio and risk appetite.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular book Rich Dad Poor Dad, spoke again this week about the inevitability of financial turmoil and called on investors to invest more in bitcoin, gold and silver. The businessman promised that he would increase reserves in digital currency in the near future, as he does not trust the US Federal Reserve and the economic policies of the Joe Biden administration. “Why buy more gold, silver and bitcoin? Because the Fed, Treasury and Biden are liars!” Kioysaki said. According to his forecast, if large capital becomes more active in physical and digital gold, their price will rise to $5,000 and $500,000 by 2025, respectively.

- According to a report by Matrixport researchers, the price of bitcoin hit its predicted low in November 2022. The analysts explained that BTC historically bottomed out 515-458 days before the next halving. This event is scheduled for April 2024; hence the predicted low was between November 2022 and January 2023. That's what happened. This gives reason to expect that this model will continue to work further, and the value of the coin will rise to at least $63,160 by the spring of 2024.
In addition, the experts noted an interesting point. Their observations showed that American investors are more willing to invest in bitcoin, while their Asian counterparts prefer ethereum.

- Analyst Nicholas Merten is of an opposite opinion. He announced in a new video on DataDash to his 511,000 subscribers that it's time to sell bitcoin, as the first cryptocurrency has grown by almost 100% since November 2022. Merten believes that the first cryptocurrency's latest breakthrough could be a trap, as crypto markets were overbought.
The expert disagrees with those who believe that bitcoin will follow the 2019 scenario, when it rose by 300% in a few months. According to him, the scenario of June 2021 is likely to be repeated, when BTC reached its historical high and then collapsed.

- The creators of the famous chatbot ChatGPT have banned it from directly providing cryptocurrency forecasts.  It turned out that it is very often wrong, and it is still unknown which algorithms it uses for its predictions. In addition, AI is not able to correctly interpret a lot of important data. These include, in particular, new posts on social networks by well-known analysts. Namely, many traders and investors rely on them when making decisions. Also, ChatGPT is unable to predict the occurrence of certain significant events on the crypto market, which reduces the accuracy of its forecasts significantly.
Based on the foregoing, it becomes obvious that the chatbot can only be used as an auxiliary tool, nothing more. It is extremely risky to create trading strategies and make trading decisions based on it. However, despite this, some users use various tricks to get around the ban, in the hope that a miracle will happen and ChatGPT will open their way to wealth.

- Owners of Android devices are at risk of becoming victims of a new virus that pretends to be the CoinSpot crypto exchange. This is reported by Cyble researchers who identified the Trojan. The list of the virus's functionality includes the ability to steal user credentials, cookies, and SMS messages.
Fraudsters also steal credit card information under the guise of subscribing to a chatbot. It was reported earlier that attackers began to distribute viruses under the guise of desktop versions of the ChatGPT chat bot from OpenAI. Thus, the Android and Windows operating systems were at risk.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- On April 11, bitcoin rose above $30,000, for the first time since June 2022. The main cryptocurrency continues to outperform other major asset classes such as gold or oil. This comes amid expectations that central banks will put a hold on rate hikes.
Several industry analysts have expressed their opinion on what happened. Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known strategist, and founder of the investment company Eight, noted that bitcoin successfully passed the $28,600 test, which led to a breakthrough in resistance and reached $30,000. An analyst with the nickname PlanB tweeted that all the goals he set back in October 2022 have now been achieved. At that time, the expert predicted that BTC quotes would overcome $21,000, $24,000, and then $30,000. And another popular blogger and analyst, Lark Davis, stressed that the time will soon come when buying bitcoins for less than $30,000 will seem as fantastic as buying BTC at $3,000 now.

- In terms of the number of requests, bitcoin has overtaken former President Donald Trump, famous musician Elvis Presley, and Disney World. In the United States, the number of requests related to the first cryptocurrency in the Google search engine reached 1.9 million, and in terms of the global indicator, the figure reached 12 million. This is stated in research by Ahrefs. According to Google Trends, Donald Trump was only two days ahead of bitcoin last month when reports of his arrest surfaced.

- In India, a 23-year-old employee of a large technology company tried to commit suicide after losing 3 million rupees (about $ 37,000) on investments in cryptocurrency. This is reported by The Times of India. According to the publication, a taxi driver noticed the young man on a bridge in Kolkata and reported to the police. As a result, law enforcement officers prevented him from jumping into the river. During the interrogation, the investor spoke about unsuccessful investments in the digital asset market. For this purpose, he used, among other things, his mother's pension and borrowed funds. Recently, he has been receiving threats demanding a refund.
Earlier, The Balance rehabilitation center in Spain began providing treatment services for addiction to digital asset trading. The course is four weeks long. The cost of treatment exceeds $75,000 (that is, twice what the failed investor from India lost).

- The head of the opposition party “For Thailand” (Pheu Thai) and candidate for Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has promised to allocate digital assets to every citizen over 16 years of age if he wins the elections in May. According to Bloomberg, each eligible resident will allegedly be able to receive 10,000 baht (~$290). It is not specified which cryptocurrency the “state-owned AirDrop” is planned to be used in. The office of the incumbent Prime Minister is already concerned about the proposed action and is wondering where the funds (about $15 billion) for this AirDrop will come from. 
It should be noted that such an initiative is not new. The El Salvadorian government has already given away bitcoins to its citizens who used Chivo wallets. True, the amount was 10 times more modest, about $30. 

- ChatGPT artificial intelligence spoke about the formation of a recession-resistant investment portfolio. According to a document published by the Gold IRA Guide, the chatbot recommended allocating 20% for gold and other precious metals. The rest of its hypothetical portfolio consisted of bonds (40%), "defensive" stocks (30%) and cash (10%). 
The chatbot did not mention cryptocurrencies, much to the delight of well-known bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff. “After all, artificial intelligence is pretty smart. It did not recommend any bitcoin deposit,” this investor wrote. 
However, ChatGPT's response was not necessarily against digital gold in favor of physical gold. The ForkLog editors asked the chatbot for its opinion on both assets. According to the answer, the choice between them may depend on investment goals, risk level and personal preferences.

- This week, investors will have access to the second most popular cryptocurrency, ethereum, worth more than $33 billion (about 15% of the total). This will happen as part of the planned blockchain modernization, writes Reuters. A new blockchain software update called Shapella will allow investors to redeem their ETH coins they have invested and locked on the network over the past 3 years in exchange for interest.
Traders are now trying to figure out how this sudden flood of cryptocurrency can affect its price. Some market participants are concerned that the unlock could lead to a massive wave of sales, which in turn would drive the price down dramatically. However, the only thing that can be said for sure is that the hard fork will cause an increase in price volatility.

- Dieter Wermuth, an economist, and partner at Wermuth Asset Management, believes that the economy would be better and simpler without bitcoin. In his opinion, these risky investments are associated with social costs, and the cryptocurrency itself does not contribute to global prosperity.
The BTC market is highly centralized and primarily benefits the very first investors and miners. If we consider it as a currency, given the high volatility and lack of real use, BTC is doomed to failure, the specialist believes. In this vein, it makes sense to ditch bitcoin altogether: it could be good for shared prosperity, as investing in cryptocurrencies is wasteful and takes away funds from overall economic growth. In addition, bitcoin creates social inequality, allows for money laundering, tax evasion, and is very energy intensive due to mining. Dieter Wermuth even called bitcoin “the biggest climate killer.”

- It turns out that Apple has been hiding the official description of BTC in every computer since 2018. Technician Andy Baio revealed on Twitter that he accidentally found a copy of Satoshi Nakamoto's official description of BTC on his Apple Mac computer, Business Insider writes. Baio explained it this way: “Today, while trying to fix my printer, I discovered that a PDF copy of Satoshi Nakamoto’s bitcoin datasheet came with every copy of macOS since Mojave in 2018.” According to him, many of his fellow Mac users confirmed this fact: each of them had a file called "simpledoc.pdf".
Baio suggested the reason why, of all the documents, it was the original description of BTC that was chosen to be included in Apple's operating system: "Maybe it was just a convenient, lightweight, multi-page PDF file for testing purposes that was never meant to be viewed by end users."

- The US Department of Defense commissioned a study on the potential collapse of the economy due to the cryptocurrency market. Inca Digital, an analytical blockchain firm, won the competition for this work. A representative of this company noted in comments to the media that the banking system has increasingly intersected with the crypto market recently, and this connection makes this market a subject of national security: “Cryptocurrencies are no longer an independent vertical. They rely on banks, the internet, and that's what people should be warned about: it's a single combined system that is widespread in everyday services." Defense Department officials, in turn, expect the development to shed light on whether hostile groups or nations can use digital currencies against the US.

- U.S. potential presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr called bitcoin a safe haven that, thanks to decentralization, is less exposed to the risks inherent in traditional finance. The politician is confident that the current “financial bubble” will inevitably burst, and cryptocurrencies “will allow people to hide from its splashes” and open up a “way of salvation” for society.

– Lawrence Lepard, managing partner at Boston-based equity firm Equity Management Associates, believes that bitcoin will rise to $10 million due to the collapse of the US dollar. According to Lepard, the dollar will depreciate over the next 10 years, and citizens will begin to actively invest in cryptocurrencies, gold and real estate. The supply of bitcoins is limited, so the digital asset will become a highly sought-after investment vehicle and will benefit from the collapse of the fiat currency. “I believe that the price of bitcoin will go up a lot. I think it will first reach $100,000, then $1 million and eventually rise to $10 million per coin. I’m sure my grandchildren will be shocked at how rich people who own just one bitcoin become,” Lepard said in an interview.
In connection with this forecast, the businessman fears that the authorities will put spokes in the wheels of the crypto industry, trying to slow down the growth in the popularity of digital assets. For example, officials could raise taxes on profits from bitcoin trading and tighten regulation of coins to make it harder for startups to enter the market. However, Lepard is confident that bitcoin will be able to overcome these difficulties and succeed in the long run.

- A well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB noted that bitcoin has left the deep bear zone and is at the very beginning of a new bull market. According to PlanB, the Stock to Flow (S2F) model he developed is still relevant. The expert claims that bitcoin fundamentals will eventually allow it to rise above the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 set in November 2021. PlanB has previously predicted bitcoin will rise from $100,000 to $1 million after the 2024 halving.
Recall that the S2F (stock-to-flow ratio) model for predicting the BTC rate measures the relationship between the available stock of an asset and its production volume and has been repeatedly criticized by members of the crypto community. 


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- UK-based crypto companies are having difficulty accessing banking services. According to Bloomberg sources, banks have begun to reject applications, block accounts and request more information regarding customer transactions. 
The agency recalled the decision of HSBC and the Nationwide Building Society to prohibit retail customers from purchasing digital assets using credit cards. Payment service provider Paysafe has announced the termination of its partnership with Binance, citing a “difficult” regulatory environment.
In response to the deteriorating situation, CryptoUK representatives have approached the government with a proposal to create a "whitelist" of companies registered in the country to ease restrictions. And according to Coinpass co-founder and CEO Jeff Hancock, problems with access to banking are contrary to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's plans to turn the country into a cryptohub. 

- Cryptocurrency companies may change their jurisdiction from the US to Hong Kong amid increased supervision by US regulators. This was stated to The Wall Street Journal by Ambre Soubiran, the head of the Paris-based crypto asset data provider Kaiko. “Today, the US is tougher on cryptocurrencies than ever, and Hong Kong's regulation [looks] more favorable, which is clearly shifting the center of gravity in investing and trading crypto assets towards it. We want to be where our customers are,” she said. According to Subiran, Kaiko plans to organize a team in Hong Kong, including through access to Chinese institutional investors.

- A cryptocurrency analyst known as Stockmoney Lizards analyzed the dynamics of the flagship crypto asset. In his opinion, the asset's monthly chart looks promising and indicates the potential for further growth. The expert's assumptions are supported by the readings of the RSI indicator. Stockmoney Lizards believes that the current market situation is very similar to the period from 2017 to 2020, when a steady upward trend began to form, and that bitcoin will soon be able to reach the key $47,000 mark.
Another well-known analyst, Michael Van De Poppe, shares this view. According to the expert, buyers are still in control of the situation. If bitcoin quotes remain above $25,000 for some time, we can count on a potential increase up to the level of $40,000.
In turn, representatives of the Derebit platform informed that open interest in bitcoin derivatives continues to grow steadily. They stressed that most of the positions are open to buy, as investors continue to believe in the potential of the crypto market's flagship. 

- Experts from the analytical company Glassnode spoke about the friendliest countries in terms of cryptocurrency taxation in 2023. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) turned out to be the leader. This came as no surprise, as Dubai has made a lot of efforts over the past year to attract crypto companies and other industry participants. In a short period of time, special commissions to regulate cryptocurrencies, separate tax legislation for the digital asset sector, and many other innovations have been created there. All this allows Dubai to claim the title of the world's crypto capital.
The honorable second and third places in the Glassnode list were taken by such states as Malta and Belarus. Next came Monaco, Panama and Malaysia. Among the major countries of the European Union, Germany ranked 7th. Singapore, Switzerland and El Salvador followed closely behind.

- Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, noted a “familiar” bullish signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric in his tweet. SLRV Ribbons is a tool to measure the potential return of bitcoin. It analyzes the interaction of two moving averages. When the short-term 30-day MA crosses the long-term 150-day MA, bitcoin is in the beginning of a bullish phase. This metric is “as simple as it gets,” Edwards wrote. “It is currently repeating classic bullish behavior with a crossover in early 2023.” The specialist added that SLRV Ribbons, although a relatively new tool, has been tested and shown to be reliable and able to increase the return on investments in BTC.
SLRV is not the only metric that gave the founder of Capriole Investments a sense of déjà vu this month. The Bitcoin Yardstick tool shows a retracement of bitcoin's market value relative to hashrate, but still classifies BTC as "cheap" at current prices. “Bitcoin Yardstick is drawing a very familiar signature to the 2019 lows,” Edwards commented on the indicator readings. At the beginning of that year, after exiting the “cheap” zone, BTC/USD saw only one brief drop during the crisis caused by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. At the moment, according to indicators, price targets for BTC are fixed at $35,000.

- The head of largest crypto exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), believes that competitors to the trading platform pay news agencies and opinion leaders to increase fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about his company. Zhao shared this sentiment as reports surfaced online that he had received an Interpol Red Notice (International Arrest Request). According to the head of Binance, the rumors are not true and are the next wave of FUD.
“All this looks like news leak paid for by another crypto exchange. Amazing. Thus, they [the organizers of the attacks] harm the industry and themselves. We have enough of those who attack us from the outside. At such moments, the cryptocurrency industry should [on the contrary] unite [rather than attack other market players],” Changpeng Zhao wrote in his blog. He did not specify which crypto exchange Zhao believes is attacking Binance.

- According to the analytical company Glassnode, despite the fall in the value of the leading digital currency, its attractiveness as an asset class continues to grow. Thus, the number of unique addresses on the bitcoin network with a balance of at least one coin has reached 992,243. The number of addresses controlling from 100 to 1000 BTC is 14,004. The four largest whales hold between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, including the Binance and Bitfinex exchanges, which control 248,597 and 178,010 bitcoins, respectively. At the same time, it is possible that one of these four whales is the US government. According to the Dune analysts, the total stock of the first cryptocurrency by the US authorities is 205,515 BTC: more than 1% of the coin supply. Most of these assets were obtained when they were confiscated from criminals.
Glassnode experts note that a surge in trader activity was recorded in the second half of last year, when bitcoin fell to $15,000. It was at this time that the number of BTC wallets with a non-zero balance increased sharply, a similar trend is observed in 2023.

- Cybercriminals have stolen $255.8 million in digital currencies since the beginning of the year. "Only" $8.8 million was stolen in January, 3.5 times more - $35.5 million in February, and the figure rose to $211.5 million in March. In total, hackers committed 26 hacks during the first month of spring. The largest amount was stolen during the attack on the Euler Finance DeFi platform, about $197 million, but later the hacker apologized and returned $182.7 million to the project. The reasons for this "nobility" remain unknown. He may have decided that the remaining $14 million would be enough for him.
In addition to cryptocurrencies, $31.5 million worth of NFTs were stolen in three months. A significant part of the stolen tokens was sold on the Blur and OpenSea marketplaces within the first two hours after the theft.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX crypto exchange, has made a bold prediction about the rise in the price of bitcoin to $1 million. He was prompted to do so by the news that the People's Bank of China lowered the required reserve ratios (RRR) for all banks by 0.25%.
For reference: The required reserve ratio is the statutory share of a commercial bank's liabilities on attracted deposits. When this rate is lowered, the amount of funds that commercial banks can provide for lending or investment increases.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Cane Island Alternative Advisors analyst Timothy Peterson stated that 6 million of the 19.3 million bitcoins mined are irretrievably lost. “This means that there are only 13.3 million BTC left, and only 1.7 million BTC to be mined over 100 years. Another million [coins] will almost certainly be lost during this time,” he wrote. According to Peterson, as new bitcoins are mined, old ones are lost. He called the 13 million BTC circulating today “everything we are likely to have access to.”
Coinmetrics analysts calculated in April 2020 that 2.3 million BTC out of the 18.3 million BTC mined at that time were lost forever.

- Canadian artist Benjamin Von Wong, who created the Satoshi Skull mascot for Greenpeace, said his work was “never intended to fight bitcoin.” “I created the Skull believing that bitcoin mining was a classic black and white problem. I've dedicated my entire career to reducing hazardous waste emissions, and PoW intuitively felt insecure. Of course, I was wrong,” Von Wong wrote.
The artist noted that after talking with experts from the crypto sphere, he realized the prospects of blockchain technology. In his opinion, bitcoin “could potentially become more environmentally friendly” without changing the algorithm. “I am excited to hear from the bitcoin community that the first cryptocurrency could achieve negative CO2 emissions by the end of the decade,” added von Wong. And now, instead of fighting mining, the artist calls to join the crypto community and improve it from the inside.
On March 23, Greenpeace unveiled a mascot that represents the "dangerous amounts of pollution" caused by bitcoin mining. Will Foxley, director of media strategy at mining company Compass Mining, called the installation “really cool” and put a skull image on the profile avatar.

- Venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper has published recommendations for asset diversification, including using cryptocurrencies. Draper wrote in a report aimed at entrepreneurs that companies "can no longer rely" on just one bank or regulator. “For the first time in many years, governments are taking over banks at the risk of becoming insolvent. Bitcoin is a defense against the financial domino effect and mismanagement with excessive control,” the businessman said. He added that "many startups" turned to him for emergency help after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank.
Draper suggested keeping short-term deposits for no more than six months in two separate accounts, at a local bank and an international bank. In his opinion, organizations should also transfer an amount equal to two salary funds into bitcoin or other digital assets. The billionaire stressed the importance of such a contingency cushion, as management is responsible for meeting payroll deadlines "even in times of crisis."

- Oliver Linch, CEO of Bittrex Global, links the recent bitcoin rally to the US banking crisis caused by the collapse of Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. At the same time, according to a CNBC survey among influential figures in the industry, the market remains bullish about the future of the first cryptocurrency. So Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino believes that bitcoin can “retest” the all-time high of $69,000. And Marshall Beard, strategic director of the Gemini crypto exchange, predicts that the coin may reach $100,000 this year. In his opinion, if the first cryptocurrency manages to overcome the previous maximum, it “would not take much time to rise even higher.” 

- Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that gold and bitcoin will be the most popular instruments for investors in 2023. The precious metal will confirm the status of the safest asset. The cost of a troy ounce of gold will soon exceed $2,000. At the same time, the attractiveness of bitcoin, which is seen as an instrument independent of the traditional banking system, will increase. As the global economy worsens, the number of investors who prefer to keep their capital in BTC, gold, as well as in treasuries, will grow, according to a note prepared by McGlone.
The collapse of the banking sector is reminiscent of the crisis of 1929, so the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. After the latest rate hike, investment in bitcoin has increased, although many observers expected its value to fall, Bloomberg strategist emphasized. In his opinion, the BTC rebound can be seen as a positive signal, as more traders continue to buy cryptocurrency even amid global uncertainty.

- Place Holder partner and former head of Ark Invest crypto company Chris Burniske, like Mike McGlone, believes now is the time to buy bitcoin and ethereum, as they are created for precisely such crisis moments.

- An analyst with the nickname The Wolf of Crypto found the history of the posts of the famous “gold bug” and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff and recalled that he buried BTC back in 2017. At the time, the coin was trading at $5,000, and Schiff promised that it would soon be completely worthless. Despite the past 6 years, the entrepreneur has not changed his position. And now, in March 2023, he stated that “Bitcoin’s zero price hike just dragged on a bit.”
Analysts recalled that bitcoin quotes rose by 47% after Schiff announced the need to sell assets amid fears caused by a banking collapse caused by the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

 - Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, criticized bitcoin, saying that the fundamental value of the first cryptocurrency is zero. He called bitcoin a highly speculative asset with no economic value or utility. It should be noted that Hanke himself is promoting initiatives related to the dollarization of Latin American countries.
Cake Defi CEO Julian Hosp responded to Hanke that BTC can be argued endlessly, but bitcoin definitely has value. According to Hosp, there are undoubtedly people who need bitcoin, so the claim that the first cryptocurrency has zero value is fundamentally wrong.

- The Central African Republic (CAR) will be the next country to legalize cryptocurrency at the state level, writes BeInCrypto. This decision was made after the discussion of the issue in the National Assembly. The debates were held behind closed doors, and after them, the President of the country, Faustin-Archange Touadera, supported the Central Bank's opinion regarding the FCFA cryptocurrency, which will have the status of legal tender in the CAR.

- Analyst Cory Swan has theorized that it was the founder of the Binance Changpeng Zhao (CZ) crypto exchange who was all this time the bear who tried to crash bitcoin to $12,000. “CZ held a large short position against BTC, hoping for $12,000, and paying for his personal big trade with unsecured BUSD and unsecured altcoins,” Swann writes.
A user under the nickname Grinding Poet believes that “Bitcoin at $12,000 is too optimistic. This is a big black swan and a retest of the 2018 lows is imminent. The new target is $3,150.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur, has once again called for investing in gold, silver and bitcoin amid problems with US banks. In his opinion, regulators will print “even more counterfeit money” to save the “sick economy”. “Take care of yourself. Crash landing is ahead,” Kiyosaki wrote.
Kiyosaki made his announcement amid the recent collapse of major US banks Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, which were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The latter, together with the Treasury and the US Federal Reserve, said that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will have access to all funds in full. In addition, the Fed announced the creation of the Bank Term Funding Program for banks that may face similar problems (BTFP). $25 billion will be allocated for this purpose. Interestingly, both of these banks were actively used by cryptocurrency companies as fiat gateways.

- Aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and balance sheet cuts have led to bank failures in the US. According to a number of experts, this has become an excellent advertisement for bitcoin, the rate of which is expected to skyrocket. Observers draw parallels to the 2013 Cyprus crisis, which highlighted the shortcomings in the fractional reserve system and drew attention to decentralized hedging as opposed to centralized banking.
“The 18th largest bank [SVB] has collapsed. We have learned how a record sell-off in US Treasuries resulted in billions of dollars of unrealized losses in the banking sector. Thus, we have received another example of the fact that a fractional reserve system has no savers, but only creditors,” writes The Bitcoin Layer.

- Bitcoin reacted with a bullish rally to the news that the US authorities provided liquidity to rescue depositors of Silicon Valley and Signature banks. Market analyst Tedtalksmacro called this move by the Fed the beginning of unofficial quantitative easing. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes was even more blunt: “Get ready for a rally in risk assets. Money Printer Launched! - he wrote. - Helping the depositors to burst banks means injecting money into the economy, from which liquidity was only withdrawn during the year. This is a great fuel for risky assets.”

- After the aforementioned bankruptcy of these two banks, the BTC rate jumped by more than 30%. This made market participants think again about the potential of cryptocurrency as a tool for capital protection. Meanwhile, CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer continued to criticize the cryptocurrency industry. In the latest episode of his show, he expressed his skepticism regarding the coin's latest price rally. The host also called bitcoin a "strange animal". In his opinion, cryptocurrencies are secretly manipulated by large financial institutions and wealthy investors. “Please don’t think that everything happens by itself,” Cramer warned the audience, adding that he never believed in bitcoin.

- The US Treasury has called for the introduction of an excise duty for mining companies in the amount of 30% of the cost of electricity consumed. This is stated in the Green Book of the department. The tax is planned to be introduced in stages over the next three years, increasing by 10% each year. In addition, miners will be required to report how much electricity and what power they use. The new excise is expected to reduce the total number of mining devices in the US.
Another provision concerns individuals. The US Treasury is proposing that people with foreign financial accounts holding more than $50,000 worth of cryptocurrencies report those assets on their tax returns. Among other things, the agency is discussing the possibility of assessing the market value of digital assets and is proposing to expand the rules for securities lending to include cryptocurrencies.

- Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, one of the largest crypto exchanges, has revealed the content of her investment portfolio. “I have a cryptocurrency portfolio. About 41% is in BTC and ETH, 38% in USDT and USDC, 12% in BGB (this is the Bitget platform token). The rest is small amounts in such altcoins as BLUR, SHIB/DOGE, MANA/SAND, DODO, AVAX, YFI. I look forward to buying more BGB and BTC when the price drops. I have some NFTs, but they are not avatar pictures. I bought artistic NFTs, for example, VR paintings by French artist Anna Zhilyaeva. They are exclusively for my personal collections and not for speculation,” she admitted. 
According to Gracy Chen, ethereum will face increased volatility and a pullback in the next 2-7 months after a short-term market rise. Due to the lack of external liquidity, as well as the fact that current investors are more speculative, in the medium term, the ethereum price may move in the range from $1,200 to $2,000. “Capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market will begin to increase ahead of the bitcoin halving. ETH is expected to reach strong resistance in the $2,400-$3,500 range in 2024,” the expert believes.

- The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has warned of scammers who create fake mobile gaming apps and use them to steal crypto assets. Criminals position their apps as blockchain games based on the Play-to-Earn concept. Attackers contact victims online and invite them to play online games where players can be rewarded in crypto assets for certain actions (Play-to-Earn). For example, for growing crops on a virtual farm. 
To take part in the game, victims need to download the game app, create a cryptocurrency wallet and buy assets. The more funds a user keeps in their gaming account, the greater their reward will be in the game, the scammers convince. When users stop topping up their account, criminals empty their wallets with malware that is activated when the game is downloaded. 

- US Congressman Tom Emmer has once again opposed the launch of the state cryptocurrency. According to him, the digital dollar can be "easily weaponized" and used to spy on US citizens and to "crush politically unpopular activities."
The congressman noted that the cryptocurrency economy worries the US authorities, as it “takes power from centralized government institutions and returns it to the people.” Therefore, the idea of a controlled state cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly popular with regulators and law enforcement agencies.

- Henrik Zeberg, a trader and well-known macro analyst, has assessed the correlation between the US unemployment rate, the NAHB housing index, the stock market index and cryptocurrencies. The expert has noted the frightening similarity of the current scenario with the crisis of 1929, and has added that the markets are approaching an economic collapse that will drag on for several years. According to him, all markets were "extremely overheated, and the next recession could be much more serious than in 2007-2009." According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency market will also be hit very hard, and many digital coins will not withstand the pressure.
Zeberg has presented a forecast for a macroeconomic recession based on the Elliott wave theory. According to the study, wave 4 could reach its maximum level in early 2024. After that, large financial markets will be doomed to collapse. The specialist has emphasized that all attention should be focused on the economic performance of the third and fourth quarters of 2023, which could be the last bullish period of this market cycle.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Numerous studies show that despite the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, the number of active female investors is only growing every year. The volume of crypto assets traded by women increased from 15.2% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2022. And this happened at a time when the market was facing massive bankruptcies, liquidations and tightening of monetary policy by Central Banks.
According to statistics, female investors choose bitcoin in 21.6% of cases, followed by Tether USD with 21%. Ethereum, Shiba Inu and Dogecoin have also become popular assets. The most active age group is between 25 and 35 years old. The average net worth of a female investor in the UK is estimated at £9,650. And women cite the desire for financial independence as a key reason for investing in digital assets.

- Egyptian authorities arrested 29 people, including 13 foreign nationals, who stole more than $600,000 using the HoggPool scam network. The attackers launched an online platform in August 2022 and lured customers with the promise of “great financial gains” from cryptocurrency transactions. HoggPool went out of business in February, its organizers disappeared with clients' money. But then, the attackers were arrested when they reappeared with the intention of launching the Riot platform.
Back in early 2018, Egypt's chief mufti, Sheikh Shawki Allam, banned trading in crypto assets. It is illegal to engage in such activities in Egypt: you can get a prison term and a fine of up to $325,000. Despite this, Egyptian interest in cryptocurrencies remains high due to economic problems in the country. 

- Michael Van De Poppe, CEO and founder of Eight Global, noted the importance of the next few weeks for bitcoin and allowed it to fall below $20,000.
Digital gold is holding in the $22,000-25,000 range so far. Crypto market capitalization has tested the highs of 2017, with the result that, according to van de Poppe, he is now “looking for a higher bottom.” According to the expert’s forecast, if the indicator falls below the 200-week moving average, the price of bitcoin will fall to $19,700.
 “Capitalization could drop to $860 million, pulling the entire market down by another 15%,” he warned.

- The executives of S&P Solutions, which operated under the Bitcoin of America brand, were accused of manufacturing and installing unlicensed Bitcoin ATMs used for fraud. According to the US Attorney's Office, the company's ATMs were not protected against money laundering, which is why they were actively used by various intruders. “S&P Solutions received a 20% commission for each transfer and continued to do so even after learning about fraudulent transactions,” the prosecutor’s office noted.
For reference, Bitcoin of America operates over 2,600 cryptocurrency ATMs in 35 states and is the fourth largest manufacturer of these devices in the country.

- The lack of clear regulation of the crypto industry in the United States threatens that companies will go abroad and offshore. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on users who “will remain vulnerable to fraudsters.” This opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He emphasized the importance of adopting a legislative framework and clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, which, in his opinion, will contribute to the growth of the industry. Garlinghouse cited Ripple's legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an example of the imperfection of the law, which showed how much the United States lags behind other countries in this direction.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, believes that the bitcoin rally will start at a time when the global economy is in an oil crisis. In his opinion, a sharp increase in hydrocarbon prices will create conditions for the growth of digital assets and, first of all, bitcoin.
Hayes's logic is as follows: against the background of geopolitical tensions in the world, demand for energy resources will increase, as oil exporters are likely to reduce production. In this situation, the United States, as a leading economic power, will have to increase its own oil production. The Fed will need to ease the monetary rate to stimulate business activity in the energy sector. As soon as the regulator starts lowering rates, capital will return to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. In addition, the former head of BitMEX recalled that the limited supply of BTC will also contribute to its growth, as the US dollar will lose ground.
For the record: Arthur Hayes was charged with violating the Bank Secrecy Act in 2022 and sentenced to six months of house arrest, two years of probation, and a $10 million fine.

- More than 90% of bitcoins are currently in circulation, but the asset's inflation rate has dropped significantly in recent years. It is now at least three times lower than that of the US dollar. This allows BTC to act as a possible hedge against capital depreciation and economic uncertainty. According to the WooBull analytical platform, the inflation rate of the first cryptocurrency has been steadily decreasing since its creation in 2009 and amounted to 1.79% as of March 4. At the same time, the same indicator for USD reached 6.4% in 2023, which is 3.57 times higher than that of BTC. 
The decrease in bitcoin inflation is due to the asset's deflationary model, supported by halvings, which reduce the speed of coin mining and halve miners' rewards. Experts also believe that this figure remains low due to the decentralization of BTC, which avoids most of the political and economic risks typical for the US dollar. On the contrary, the USD inflation rate will grow. This is primarily due to an excessive increase in the money supply, a decrease in demand and/or a reduction in production. 

- Nicholas Merten, a well-known crypto analyst and presenter of the DataDash YouTube channel, has not ruled out a new major fall in ethereum. In his opinion, if we take into account previous bear markets when forecasting, ETH could fall by more than 90% from its historical high, that is, find itself at the level of several hundred dollars.
“ETH/USD has a long way to go. “We're only 67% from the record,” Merten says. “And if we see again what we had in previous bear markets, say, a 92 percent correction or a 94 percent correction, then the price of ETH will drop to several hundred dollars. The difference is huge, from $870 to about $500.”
Merten added that the current ETH price action looks very weak, as the altcoin has been stuck in a fairly narrow range for several months and cannot overcome the significant resistance at $1,800.

- Analysts at Santiment have identified massive negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Experts find it difficult to establish the main reason for achieving such high levels. The researchers have noted that the cryptocrash hashtag trended on Twitter long before the 5% drop in the price of bitcoin, which occurred last Friday, March 03. Some members of the crypto community attributed the negative sentiment to problems with the Silvergate crypto bank and the recent SEC statement that all altcoins could be classified as securities.
The good news for investors, according to Santiment analysts, is that the total negative led to a noticeable rebound in prices previously. Felix Zulauf, the founder of hedge fund Zulauf Consulting, has suggested that bitcoin will move into a clear bullish rally sometime in late spring. The expert does not rule out that the asset could reach $100,000 on a sharp uptrend. He emphasized that bitcoin is now in the initial phase of a bullish cycle, which is confirmed by numerous on-chain metrics.

- Despite the bearish dynamics, Credible Crypto experts also remain optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the flagship crypto asset. In their opinion, bitcoin may update its historical extremum this year. However, the asset will face several hurdles before a steady bullish trend begins. Credible Crypto agrees that last year's bankruptcies are having a negative impact on the industry. However, about 73% of all BTC coins are concentrated in the hands of experienced holders who can withstand difficult times.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Regulation of the crypto market was one of the topics finance ministers and central bankers discussed at the G20 meeting chaired by India last weekend. As a result, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that regulation of the crypto industry is important, while Washington is not considering a complete ban. “It is very important to create a reliable regulatory framework. And we are working [on this] with other governments,” she said in an interview with Reuters. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva agrees with her colleague: her organization also advocates for adequate regulation of digital assets and against their complete ban.

- Michael van de Poppe, the CEO of Eight, believes that bitcoin is currently the most undervalued asset. He has released a video review in which he predicts the growth of the coin to $40,000 this year. This forecast has been made against the background of recent news, according to which inflation in the US showed its teeth again: the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) was 4.7% against the forecast of 4.3%. It has already been said that because of this, the Fed may raise the interest rate by 50 basis points in March and not by 25 bps, as previously expected.
According to cryptocurrency screener Cryptovizor, bitcoin reached a local high on February 21, and then began to fall. However, both the aggravation of macroeconomic data and the rollback of BTC quotes failed to dampen Van de Poppe's optimism. From his point of view, a pronounced bullish divergence on the weekly chart indicates that we have already reached the bottom. What is happening now is just a bounce off the 200-week moving average and consolidating. According to the trader, a sideways movement is most likely at this stage. In the worst case scenario, BTC/USD will fall to the low of the $18,000 range, and this fall will be a great investment opportunity.
According to Van de Poppe, there is no recession at the moment, but it may begin due to the collapse of the debt market and the real estate market. But before that happens, bitcoin could rise to $40,000, as the crisis usually unfolds 6-12 months after the Fed's significant rate hike. The signal for the start of a new bull rally could be either the lifting of the mining ban in China, or the adoption of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong.

- “Despite the tumultuous events of the past year, US cryptocurrency ownership has remained largely unchanged since hitting an all-time high in early 2022. More than 50 million people in the country own cryptocurrencies, and 76% of them believe that this type of asset and blockchain technology are the future. 67% believe that the current financial system needs a major reboot. These conclusions were reached by Morning Consult experts based on the results of a survey commissioned by Coinbase.
Based on the survey results, Coinbase plans to focus on the development of the industry. The exchange intends to work with politicians and companies in the field of traditional finance, as well as launch an educational campaign explaining the role that cryptocurrencies can play in the renewal of the financial system. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has previously stated that he wants to increase the global cryptocurrency user base to one billion people.

- Investors are again showing an active interest in cryptocurrencies. According to the analytical company Glassnode, the 30-day inflow of capital into the market has exceeded the outflow for the first time in 9 months and has returned to the “green” zone. The cumulative net realized market value position has also turned positive for the first time since April 2022. Over the past nine months, the metric has shown negative values.
According to analysts, another positive indicator is the fall in the number of bitcoin whale wallets to a three-year low. This means that the asset has become more distributed and less concentrated among a handful of large holders. This option is preferable for the entire ecosystem, as it eliminates the possibility of market manipulation by several players. 
Glassnode also reported On February 27 that the percentage of active BTC supply just hit an all-time high of 28.2%. This suggests that the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies is steadily increasing despite the bear market and challenging times for the global economy.

- A 51-year-old American admitted during the trial that he tried to shoot down a bitcoin ATM for the benefit of the people. Last year, Matthew K. walked into the Vapor Maven store in Jefferson City, pulled out a gun, and fired five bullets at the ATM. Returning home, he told his wife about his act and called the police himself. Matthew explained his stunt by the hatred he feels for bitcoin ATMs. The unfortunate killer said that he decided to shoot the device so that "it could no longer take money from anyone." Despite such noble intentions, the court found Matthew guilty of damaging property and sentenced him to five years of probation. (For reference: the first Bitcoin ATM appeared in the US in October 2013, and there are now more than 35,000 of them).

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of a number of books on investing, including the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, has long been a critic of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and expressed concerns about dollar devaluation. And now the writer has made a bold statement that, in his opinion, the fake dollar is leading to the decline of the American empire. This stance of Kiyosaki has drawn approval from the crypto community as it shows the benefits of bitcoin. Experts note that digital assets such as BTC, unlike fiat currencies, are not subject to inflationary pressure, since their supply is limited and predetermined by appropriate algorithms.
Recall that Kiyosaki has recently predicted that the bitcoin rate will rise to $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” he wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.

- Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said in a recent interview that he is “epically optimistic for the next three years.” In his opinion, there will be a massive adoption of cryptocurrency in 2023-2025 and its prices will grow. “This bull market cycle is going to be the biggest cycle in terms of user adoption, in terms of the cumulative increase in market capitalization, in terms of just about every other thing we care about,” the financier says. “But it won’t happen perfectly up and to the right.” Also, “I'm actually optimistic about regulation,” Matt Hougan added.

– Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has changed his mind about bitcoin over the past few years. He called BTC "digital gold" in 2018. However, he said a year later that the fall of the crypto market reminded him of the dot-com crisis of the early 2000s.
Steve Wozniak was once again bullish this week. He predicted a BTC surge to $100,000. In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency has a huge potential and will increase in value in the coming years. “Currently, only a small percentage of the world’s population owns bitcoin, so the infrastructure is expanding at an extremely slow pace. However, its adoption will accelerate in the future, both the number of BTC holders and users of projects deployed in the DeFi and NFT markets will increase,” Wozniak believes. At the same time, the co-founder of Apple admitted that he  has less than 1 BTC, and he does not plan to make money on investments in cryptocurrency.

- The government of Ras Al Khaimah (RAK), one of the UAE's emirates, plans to create a free zone for companies in the digital asset industry. The National News writes about this. According to the statement, RAK Digital Assets Oasis will become a hub for unregulated activities of industry participants. Applications will be accepted as early as Q2 2023.

- The correlation of cryptocurrencies with US stocks and macroeconomic indicators is weakening against the backdrop of the current flat movement in the price of bitcoin. It is reported by The Block, referring to the opinion of analysts from the investment company Bernstein. According to them, the market is balancing between bulls and bears, "waiting for further catalysts", and its susceptibility to events in the world of traditional finance "is not the same as before." The first cryptocurrency's correlation with the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen from 0.94 to 0.58 since early February.
The analysts also point out that the hurdles created by regulators are bearish for the market, as is the lack of institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, the weakening of the correlation with the stock market is a bullish signal.

- The crypto market performed much better at the beginning of 2023 than most of its participants and experts expected. These are the findings of Bank of America researchers. They have published a report in which they emphasize that the market capitalization of digital coins and tokens has grown by 42% to $1.1 trillion. At the same time, Bank of America strategists remain cautious about further capitalization growth, as high dollar interest rates could put serious pressure on digital assets.

- We wrote earlier that Charles Munger, vice chairman of the holding company Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's right-hand man, called “idiots” anyone who disagrees with him regarding a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. The 99-year-old billionaire said that crypto assets are nothing more than gambling and called them “rat poison”. He also urged the US authorities to follow in the footsteps of China and ban cryptocurrencies. 
And now he received an answer from Elon Musk. The Tesla founder said that Munger considered investing in the company in 2008, when it was valued at just $200 million, but declined. Now, Tesla's current capitalization is about 3,000 times that amount. In this regard, Chris Burniske, an analyst and former head of cryptography at ARK Invest, noted caustically that Munger knows exactly how to miss the chance to make 1000x profit.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- FTX CTO Nishad Singh plans to plead guilty to fraud for his role in the crashed exchange and is discussing a possible deal with prosecutors, Bloomberg reports. Two other associates pleaded guilty to charges related to the collapse of FTX in December, but the head of the exchange, Sam Bankman-Freed, has not made a deal with the investigators.
Singh created the platform software and played an important role in the daily operations of FTX. He was part of Bankman-Freed's inner circle, living with him in a penthouse in the Bahamas. Singh has donated over $9.3 million to US Democratic candidates since 2020 and has also received hundreds of millions of dollars in loans from Alameda.

- The number of addresses with a balance of 1000 BTC or more has dropped to August 2019 levels. According to the analytical company Glassnode, there are 2,024 such whales (as of February 20, 2023). The number of addresses in this category peaked in February 2021, about 2,500. Then, despite the rally of bitcoin to an all-time high near $69,000, the indicator began to decline.
The number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more (from $240 million at current prices) is stable near the peaks corresponding to the values of November 2022 and October 2018. There are currently 115 such “mega-whale” wallets in total. But the number of smaller addresses (from 1 BTC) keeps to update the highs. Their number increased by 20% during the year, approaching 982,000.

- The Russian Bureau of Interpol officers, at the request from the United States, detained in Moscow a 31-year-old Briton who helped North Korea circumvent sanctions and advised members of the DPRK government on ways to withdraw funds abroad using cryptocurrencies. 

- Vice Chairman of the legendary holding company Berkshire Hathaway Charlie Munger, who is Warren Buffett's right-hand man, called those who disagree with him on the cryptocurrencies ban "idiots". “I'm not proud of my country [USA] for allowing this crap. It's just ridiculous that someone is buying this [digital assets]," the 99-year-old billionaire said. - This is not good. It's crazy. It only hurts. And it's antisocial." Munger has previously urged the US authorities to follow China's lead and ban digital assets. In his opinion, they cannot be attributed either to currencies, or to goods, or to securities.

- Kevin O'Leary, investor, journalist and host of the hit show Shark Tank, called on crypto exchanges to work more closely with government regulatory agencies. He stated that “American financial regulators are tired” of watching the wave of company bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency industry. And they treat such firms much more harshly now. Therefore, any business in this area should be more careful. 
“You should work with regulators. No need to stand in the way of the SEC and other agencies. These guys in Washington are pretty mean. The collapse of FTX kicked the bear. It woke up and was furious. Senators are really tired: they are tired of meeting every six months when another large cryptocurrency firm collapses. They are fed up with the fact that the industry is not regulated, and everyone can issue their own useless tokens,” said this Canadian entrepreneur.
Kevin O'Leary believes that regulated companies will attract significantly more investment than their unregulated rivals. And in general, unregulated companies run the risk of going bankrupt through the actions of officials. Kevin O'Leary had earlier stated that most crypto assets have no intrinsic value and will collapse to zero in the near future.

- Alex Gladstein, the director of the Human Rights Foundation, said In a recent interview that the first cryptocurrency is able to limit the power of states with "collapsed democracy" and deprive them of the ability to control people. According to him, bitcoin prevents "tyrannical governments" from imposing their will on the people. “Bitcoin restores democracy. Bitcoin is about free speech, property rights, and open capital markets. What do authoritarian countries need? Quite the opposite: censorship, confiscation and closed capital markets,” Gladstein said.

- Tim Berners-Lee, a British scientist and creator of the Internet, URL, HTTP and HTML, has criticized cryptocurrencies as dangerous speculative tools for market manipulation. According to the inventor, the Internet should exist without blockchain. The engineer is sure that this technology is not so fast and safe.
In his opinion, crypto assets are very similar to the dot-com bubble, when a large number of Internet companies closed 20 years ago without a fundamental basis for business development. Berners-Lee believes that digital currencies can only be suitable for money transfers if they are immediately converted into fiat currencies upon receipt.

- Bitcoin has the potential to become the digital gold of the 21st century, Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure says, adding that it is important to be mindful of the risks associated with the first cryptocurrency. She recalls that people have always looked for assets that were not controlled by governments, and gold has played this role for centuries.
Laboure is sure that the main problems of cryptocurrencies are the lack of regulation and the environmental consequences of mining. “For example, bitcoin mining requires about the same amount of electricity in a year as the entire population of Pakistan uses, about 217 million people!”

- Asian investors may push bitcoin quotes up, Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini crypto exchange, thinks. His thesis is that the next phase of price growth will occur in the East, and the US will have to adjust to new conditions. Recall that according to Chainalysis, the Asia-Pacific region already ranks third in the world in terms of cryptocurrency investments.

- According to Matrix analysts, the price of bitcoin is able to rise to $29,000 by the summer and to $45,000 by the end of this year. However, this will happen under the condition of a further slowdown in the growth rate of consumer inflation in the United States. Matrix notes that the price of the cryptocurrency has recently risen above $25,000 several times. Analysts see this as a positive signal, as BTC's rise has taken place despite the negative news on the tightening of cryptocurrency regulations in the US and Europe.
Speaking about their forecast, Matrix also refers to the “January effect”: price success in the first month often predetermines the movement of the main cryptocurrency throughout the year. In addition, experts recalled that historically, the price of bitcoin tests the lows 12-15 months before the next halving. This time, such period was December 2022 - March 2023.
Plan B also speaks about a possible rally. According to his estimates, bitcoin could test the $42,000 level as early as March.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Cryptocurrency entrepreneurs should consider moving to a country with favorable regulation of the bitcoin industry. This was stated by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He considers Dubai (UAE), Bahrain and France to be such jurisdictions. Zhao added that newcomers to the industry will definitely need legal advice in order to "not cross any of the red lines" set by regulators.
This advice came against the background of tightening regulation of the industry by the US authorities. In particular, we are talking about an investigation launched by the New York State Department of Financial Services against infrastructure company Paxos. The regulator later ordered the firm to stop issuing the Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin. The SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) also announced its readiness to sue Paxos. 
The CEO of Binance was supported by Uniswap founder Hayden Adams. “It is a shame to watch the US efforts in the cryptosphere. Innovative companies get an additional incentive to go abroad. It's like if the government banned the development of the Internet 30 years ago,” he wrote.

- According to Politico, Senator Elizabeth Warren has begun building a coalition against cryptocurrencies and is actively recruiting conservative Republicans in the US Senate. By doing so, she wants to support her bills, which could have serious consequences for the crypto industry, and which imply tighter restrictions in the fight against money laundering, including additional requirements for verifying the identity of consumers. Warren positions herself as a leading digital asset legislator and enjoys the backing of the banking lobby.
The US Department of the Treasury is currently actively monitoring cases of illegal funding using cryptocurrencies. The Warren bill will extend these obligations to other agencies and entities, including service providers in the digital asset segment.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sent 99 ETH (~$155,000 at the time of writing) to Ahbap, a non-profit organization that raises money to help earthquake victims in Turkey and Syria. According to Ahbap's official website, the organization has already raised over $4.2 million in cryptocurrencies.
According to the latest data, the disaster has claimed the lives of more than 25,000 people. More than 80,000 people have been injured in Turkey alone. The series of earthquakes has become the largest since 2010 in terms of the number of victims. 

- Investor and star of the TV show Shark Tank, Kevin O'Leary, said on The Wolf of All Streets podcast that most of the 10,000 digital assets are worthless. “They will eventually fall to zero due to the lack of volatility and [trading] volume. They are not needed,” he announced his verdict. O'Leary also talked about losing all of his crypto investments after the FTX crash in November 2022. However, after that, he has already opened new positions in bitcoin, ethereum and 5 other assets (previously his portfolio included 32 positions).

- The South Korean authorities have included in the sanctions list a number of North Korean hacker groups and individuals associated with cyber attacks and cryptocurrency theft. This was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Seoul. The sanctions came just hours after South Korea and the United States announced a cybersecurity joint venture.
In particular, hackers working in the information technology sector at the North Korean company Chosun Expo Joint Venture were blacklisted. It is alleged to be a shell company associated with the Lazarus Group. North Korean hackers have stolen more than $1.2 billion worth of virtual assets since 2017, including $626 million in 2022, according to information provided by the Foreign Ministry.

- Former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal believes Ethereum is destined to reach a five-digit price in the next bull market. The macro expert has set a target price for ethereum around $10,000, primarily due to the good potential of the token. However, he believes that some of the main competitors will surpass him. “ETH is the money of the internet. And I do not think that it will lose this status, but this does not mean that this is the best player, - said the financier. - Solana, I think, aims for the widest possible adoption, making it convenient for the consumer. […] However, ETH is the easiest way because it probably has the least risk.” 

- According to technical analysis by CryptoQuant expert Grizzly, BTC/USD has formed a unique pattern that has previously been observed at market lows. The specialist added the 200-day SMA and the realized price to the long-term chart and concluded that this could be a sign of a long-term uptrend. According to his observations, this was especially evident in 2019, 2015 and 2012.
At the same time, Grizzly noted that macroeconomic factors that put pressure on high-risk asset markets should not be overlooked. It is not known whether bitcoin will be able to “separate” from assets such as stocks and demonstrate “decent behavior” as a reliable hedge against inflation. According to the expert, only time will tell if the largest cryptocurrency maintains its upward trajectory. 

- Another popular Twitter analyst, Kaleo, with 563,000 followers, also shared his prediction about the near future of bitcoin and ethereum. The analyst believes that a price of $30,000 is still possible for bitcoin. Ethereum, in his opinion, will repeat the movement of 2018-2020. The price of this altcoin rose from $80 to $480 then. At the time of writing the review, the ETH exchange rate is $1,580. According to Kaleo's calculations, the target level is located almost twice as high: around $3,000.

- The number of users of the first cryptocurrency will grow from the current over 300 million to 1 billion in the next three years. This would be riughly 12% of the world's population. This forecast was given by well-known analyst Willy Woo. He recalled that it took six months for bitcoin to form an audience of the first 1,000 users. It took five years for that number to rise to 1 million. The network achieved its current figures of more than 300 million, 13.8 years after the formation of the genesis block. For comparison, Woo cited the audience of PayPal (430 million people) and Twitter (400 million, most of which, he believes, are bots).

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, stated that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” he wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.
Prior to this, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital, said that the value of one bitcoin on the exchange could double to $50,000 over the next two to three years. Scaramucci called 2023 a “recovery year” for bitcoin.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- North Korean hackers stole a record amount in cryptocurrencies in 2022 and targeted the networks of foreign aerospace and defense companies. This is reported by Reuters with reference to a UN report. Cybersecurity specialists estimate the damage at more than $1 billion. At the same time, Chainalysis analysts believe that the attacks have brought the DPRK about $1.7 billion in cryptocurrencies over the past year.
Most of the attacks were carried out by cybercriminals controlled by North Korea's Main Intelligence Bureau. These include Kimsuky, Lazarus Group and Andariel. They distributed malware in various ways, including phishing. “Initial contacts with individuals were made through LinkedIn, and once a level of trust with the targets was established, the malware was delivered via WhatsApp,” the UN notes, adding that the methods of hackers have become more sophisticated, making it more difficult to trace the stolen assets.

- Morgan Creek investment company CEO Mark W. Yusko, said in an interview with Cointelegraph that the next bull market could start as early as Q2 2023. This will be facilitated by favorable macroeconomic conditions and expectations of bitcoin halving.
According to the top manager, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut the key rate in the near future. However, even a slowdown or pause in this process will be perceived as a positive signal for risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.
The CEO of Morgan Creek indicated the expectations of the next bitcoin halving, which is expected to take place around April 19-21, 2024, as an additional reason for the bull market He believes that the recovery of the digital asset market usually begins nine months before this event, that is, it is the end of summer 2023 this time. 

- Cathy Wood, the head of ARK Invest, still considers the first cryptocurrency the best form of protection against financial losses and an insurance policy for developing countries. “We're seeing hyperinflation around the world as fiat currencies crash. All segments of the population need a fallback, an insurance policy like bitcoin,” she said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
According to Cathy Wood, all segments of the population, both the poor and the wealthy, will benefit from the use of digital gold. As for the latter, she pointed to bitcoin as a hedge against capital forfeiture in countries like China or Russia.

- MicroStrategy, a developer of analytical software and one of the largest crypto investors, recorded a balance sheet loss for 2022 in the amount of $1.3 billion. This is due to its long-term investment in bitcoin. (As of December 31, 2022, MicroStrategy held a total of 132,500 BTC worth $1.84 billion).
At the same time, the company's management states that it does not plan to stop trading the digital asset. According to Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor, it has “managed to surpass bitcoin as an index” since the company first announced its purchase of BTC in August 2020: its shares have risen by 117% during this time, while the value of bitcoin has increased by 98%.

- Commenting on the collapse of Alameda and FTX, Michael Saylor said that he sees this as a kind of manifestation of Darwin's theory: weak and bad players left the market, and this pushed the industry forward in the long run. At the same time, according to the co-founder of MicroStrategy, cryptocurrencies need a clear regulatory framework for companies to comply with certain standards and protect customers. “What is really needed is supervision. Clear guidance from Congress is needed for the industry to have its own Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. We need clear rules of conduct from the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) of the United States.”

- David Marcus, former head of Meta's blockchain division and former PayPal president, suggested that crypto winter will only end by 2025, when the market recovers from last year's turmoil. He believes that the time will soon pass when you can create a token out of thin air and earn millions of dollars from it. Much more value will be given to decentralized applications that have practical value for the real world. Marcus expects big breakthroughs in payments, asset tokenization, and decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the specialist doubts that the legislature will be able to develop rules for regulating cryptocurrencies in the near future, therefore, crypto companies will continue to operate in a "vacuum" in 2023, at their own peril and risk.

- Charlie Munger, an associate of Warren Buffett, vice president of the Berkshire Hathaway holding company, called on the US authorities to destroy bitcoin, which the billionaire compares investing in to gambling. He said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the cryptocurrency industry is undermining the stability of the global financial sector. And that BTC cannot be considered an asset class as it has no value.
Munger has been expressing this point of view over the past few years. And now he calls on the US authorities to deal a devastating blow to the crypto market. In his opinion, it is necessary to push it into the strictest regulatory framework, as a result of which the industry will simply not withstand the pressure and die.

- Crypto trader and investor Tone Vays stated that bitcoin “has risen very fast and very high.” BTC rose from a low of $16,272 in November 2022 to $24,229 in early February 2023 and is now facing major resistance as it approaches the $25,000 level. The specialist believes that BTC will eventually break through the resistance zone, but the asset probably “should take a break” at the moment. Weiss clarified that he expects either consolidation of the rate in a narrow range, or a small pullback.
Many experts are also keeping a close eye on the $25,000 level. For example, analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a potential trend change that could lead to a rise in quotes, as it did in 2019. The legendary trader Peter Brandt predicted earlier that the exit from the “double bottom support” technical analysis pattern would lead the coin to rise above $25,000.

- According to statistics, the media forecast of crypto community members accurately predicted the value of bitcoin by the end of each month, over the past six months with a probability of up to 75%. Finbold experts note that the forecasts obtained from a survey of more than 15 thousand traders, and the predictions of machine learning algorithms, are seriously different at the moment. Real people expect BTC quotes to fall to $20,250 by February 28, 2023, while artificial intelligence points to $24,342. 

- Swiss Rehabilitation Center The Balance has offered a course of treatment for addiction to crypto trading. According to some reports, about 1% of crypto traders have such a serious pathological addiction. The course is designed for a four-week stay in the center itself or in its branches in Mallorca, London or Zurich. The cost of treatment exceeds $75,000. Anna Lembke, professor of psychiatry at Stanford University, said the course is similar to treating a gambling addiction. At the same time, she called such a high cost of treatment unjustified.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Bitcoin has had its best start to the year since January 2013. The rate rose by 51% then, the growth was 40% last month. It happened against the backdrop of the weakness of the US dollar. “At the same time, 85% of the contribution to the rally is associated with investors from the United States,” says Markus Thielen, head of research at crypto services provider Matrixport. The bullish stance of US companies is also confirmed by the renewed premium in bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “We interpret this as a sign that faster institutional traders and hedge funds are actively buying back the recent fall in the cryptocurrency markets,” Thielen said.
Deutsche Digital Assets made a similar observation earlier, on January 20, drawing attention to the increase in Coinbase's premium as evidence of increased buying interest from sophisticated US investors. An institutional-led bullish reversal in bitcoin could be a good sign for the US stock market, given that the cryptocurrency bottomed a few weeks before the S&P 500.

- Binance Bitcoin Exchange reported that user interest in digital assets remains high. According to the survey, more than 88% of Binance customers plan to continue investing in cryptocurrencies, and only 3.3% do not consider this possibility. Bitcoin is still the dominant asset, owned by 21.7% of those surveyed. The top three also include Tether (17.8%) and BUSD (10.3%).
Over 40% of respondents bought digital assets last year for investment purposes. Other motives were the decline in the value of bitcoin and the general bearish trend. Almost 8% cited the geopolitical situation in the world as a reason for the purchase, and 11.5% expressed distrust of the traditional financial system. 40.8% do not use traditional investment opportunities (buying shares, investing in real estate, mutual funds), while 32.4% do use them. At the same time, 79.7% are sure that cryptocurrencies are necessary for the development of the global economy, and 59.4% of respondents believe that deposits in cryptocurrencies will be able to replace bank deposits over time.
According to statistics, the total number of digital wallets with a balance of $1,000 or more in bitcoin or ethereum has increased by 27% in 2022.

- Despite the fact that 2022 was a challenging year for the crypto industry, 82% of millionaires considered investing in digital assets like bitcoin. This follows from a survey conducted by financial consulting company deVere Group. The results of the survey, published on January 30, show that 8 out of 10 surveyed clients of the company, with assets to invest from $1.2 to $6.1 million, turned to financial advisers for cryptocurrency advice.
Nigel Green, CEO and Founder of the deVere Group, believes that while the group surveyed is “generally more conservative,” its interest stems from the core values of bitcoin: “digital, global, borderless, decentralized, and secure from unauthorized access". Green also notes a growing interest in crypto services from older financial institutions such as Fidelity, BlackRock and JPMorgan, and considers this a good sign for the industry. He predicts that the momentum of interest will build as the “crypto winter” of 2022 thaws due to changing conditions in the traditional financial system.
For the record: A June 2022 report by Pricewaterhouse-Coopers found that roughly a third of 89 traditional hedge funds surveyed had already invested in digital assets like bitcoin.

- The Fear and Greed Index, a metric showing the community's general attitude towards bitcoin, entered the “Greed” zone for the first time since March 30, 2022. This is due to the increase in the bitcoin rate in the first month of the year and the general revival of the entire market. It is worth noting, however, that the increased confidence among crypto investors should not be directly viewed as a catalyst for the resumption of bullish growth in the bitcoin price. In fact, a Fear or Extreme Fear metric could indicate a good buying opportunity, and too high a Greed reading could mean the market is headed for a downward correction.

- Tron founder Justin Sun said that the legalization of cryptocurrency will not only make it easier to buy and sell goods and services but will also give the public more control over their financial future. “Cryptocurrency can become a powerful tool for financial inclusion and improving the lives of people in all corners of the world. […] Let's work together to create a more inclusive and equal future for all,” wrote Justin Sun.
For the record: TRON is a decentralized entertainment content platform based on blockchain and using the TRX token. The platform also offers tools that allow developers to build and launch their own dApps.

- Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker widely known as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, also believes that regulation of the digital asset segment may be a bullish catalyst for bitcoin in the future. According to the entrepreneur, the flagship cryptocurrency will only benefit from this. He also emphasized that if world governments continue to print money uncontrollably, more and more users will see bitcoin as a reliable tool to protect against inflation.

- The price of bitcoin on Nigeria's popular NairaEx exchange jumped in terms of local currency to almost $40,000, which is about 70% higher than the global market. The discrepancy is due to the limit imposed by the country's Central Bank on withdrawing funds from ATMs. The regulator took this step in order to reduce the share of cash in cash turnover.

- Arizona Senate Member Wendy Rogers has once again proposed approving bitcoin as legal tender in the state. In a tweet, Rogers quoted Goldman Sachs data that the first cryptocurrency is “the world's most profitable asset this year.” If the law is passed, the cryptocurrency will receive the same status as the US dollar.

- Billionaire founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd Mike Novogratz, having endured a challenging 2022, is now determined to increase investment in bitcoin mining. His focus is Texas, where Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd is buying the Helios mining operation from Argo Blockchain for $65 million. 
There are currently almost 30 mining companies in Texas. In total, they have already created about 2,000 new jobs directly, and indirectly, about 20,000 more. The Governor's Blockchain Working Group believes that Texas, which leads in oil production, is able to maintain leadership in the US in bitcoin mining as well.

- According to Matrixport experts, the flagship cryptocurrency rate may reach $45,000 by Christmas 2023. Researchers released a report in which they shared a historical observation: when January's bitcoin quotes on the chart were in the “green” zone, the price rally usually continued in the following months of the year.

- A popular analyst Plan B has outlined a scenario that, in his opinion, could raise the bitcoin price to $1 million by 2025. As for this year, he predicts the price will rise above $100,000. The analyst also said that the January bitcoin pump confirms that the asset's 4-year cyclical price bottom is over.
Plan B is known for the "Stock-to-Flow" model, which attempts to model the price of bitcoin based on its scarcity. His concept involves a parabolic jump in the price of an asset every 4 years due to halving. That being said, the analyst was heavily criticized in 2022 due to an unfortunate prediction that BTC would rise well above $100,000 at the end of 2021. After that, he adjusted his model based on 18-month statistics, as a result of which a smoother growth of the main cryptocurrency was incorporated into it.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said that bitcoin has a “long year” to look forward to. According to the expert, it may appear that BTC has significant strength, while in fact the asset is likely to be in the process of forming a wide sideways range as a base. Cowen explained that sideways movement is not always an indicator of the growth of the first cryptocurrency and may also signal a fall in quotes.
The analyst reminded traders that a bearish cycle is usually followed by a year of sideways movement. Thus, there were three upward impulses in 2015, and only the last one turned into a real rally. There were also periods of growth in quotes in 2019, then their active fall followed, and a cycle that brought the crypto market to new highs started only after that.
The analyst noted that 2023 can be seen as a year of accumulation and that investors can take advantage of this period to increase their holdings of BTC. In addition, Cowan believes that the US Federal Reserve should ease monetary policy in order to increase cryptocurrency prices.

- Peter Brand, a well-known cryptocurrency trader, has a bearish forecast for the near future, as BTC has not been able to gain a foothold above $23,500 for a long time and is in consolidation. As the expert noted, many traders and investors are now waiting for a certain pullback in order to enter the market at better prices. The specialist believes that the flagship of the crypto market may reach the level of $25,000 in the near future, after which there will be a correction closer to $19,000. Brand remains optimistic from a medium-term perspective, predicting bitcoin to rise to $65,000 in the middle of this year.

- This release of CryptoNews was prepared a few hours before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, following which the decision on the key rate will be announced. If the rate, according to forecasts, increases by 0.25%, and at the same time the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, clearly hints at the dovish attitude of the regulator, this will most likely weaken the dollar and push the quotes of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, up. On the other hand, if, contrary to the expectations of investors, the refinancing rate rises by 0.50%, a wave of panic sales in the crypto market cannot be ruled out. You can find out what will actually happen in NordFX's regular analytical review, which, as usual, will be published at the end of the week.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan said on CNBC that he was not sure that the bitcoin issuance is really limited to 21 million coins. "How do you know? Maybe it will go up to 21 million, and Satoshi's photo will pop up and laugh at all of you,” he suggested. The top manager already publicly expressed skepticism in October 2022 regarding the code embedded in the algorithm of the first cryptocurrency. “Have you all read the algorithms? Guys, do you believe in all this?” Damon grinned at the time.
Given the programmed halvings, reaching the bar of 21 million should occur by 2141. At the same time, experts say that the limit on bitcoin emissions is provided by only five lines of the code. It is open for study, and anyone can verify this.

- According to Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, the cryptocurrency market will enter a new phase in 2023. The growth of bitcoin and other virtual currencies will be the result of the US Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy in the second half of this year. It is this move that will become a trigger for investors testing stock markets and digital currencies. Earlier, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone expressed a similar point of view, pointing to the possibility of BTC rising to $30,000.

- Adam Farthing, Chief Risk Officer at crypto company B2C2, noted that the first cryptocurrency needs to overcome the key level at around $25,000 in order to continue the rally. “It will be a tough nut to crack,” the expert shared his opinion. According to him, after passing the designated milestone, interest will resume from outsiders who want to return to the market.
Analysts at the brokerage company Bernstein are convinced that such a rally is unlikely to continue at the moment, as there are no signs of “any new injections” into the industry. However, in their opinion, institutional capital will still begin to show more interest in cryptocurrency this year, as it becomes an increasingly regulated asset class.

- Brian Armstrong, head of crypto exchange Coinbase, called bitcoin “the right long-term bet” for Brazil and Argentina. According to the Financial Times, the two countries intend to create a single currency to reduce dependence on the US dollar and stimulate regional trade. The Argentine Minister of Economy spoke about plans to offer participation in the bloc to other Latin American countries. The FT estimates that the new union will cover approximately 5% of global GDP and will be the second largest in the world after the EU (14%). “I wonder if they would consider switching to bitcoin. That would probably be the right long-term bet,” Armstrong said.
Former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal criticized Armstrong's idea because of the volatility of the first cryptocurrency. “No one can currently afford a national currency with 100% volatility, which falls by 65% and rises tenfold. Businesses are fighting to plan and hedge this,” he wrote.

- The Binance exchange press service said that an unknown artist under the nickname Sabunir tried to sell his digital image for bitcoins for the first time in the world. This happened 13 years ago, on January 24, 2010. The picture was a desktop wallpaper for a personal computer and was designed in a resolution of 1280x960 pixels. Sabunir tweeted at the time that he wanted to try to earn some bitcoins. He priced his picture at $1 and stressed that he plans to get 500 BTC for it. It is not known whether this deal took place, but if it did, Sabunir would now be a wealthy man, as these coins are worth more than $11 million. 

- Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist & broker at DeCarley Trading, recommended staying away from virtual currencies and choosing gold instead as a hedge against rising inflation and economic chaos. Garner studied the daily chart of BTC and Nasdaq 100 futures since March 2021 carefully, and noted that the picture was almost identical, and the price movements were in sync. According to her, this indicated that bitcoin is more of a risky asset than a means of saving capital.
Garner's opinion was referred to by Jim Cramer of CNBC. “Mad Money” TV presenter also highlighted the risks associated with the flagship cryptocurrency in light of the collapse of the FTX marketplace. He noted that a similar situation could happen at any time with any other large crypto company. In his opinion, no one knows what the big players in the industry are really hiding. And there are no guarantees that they are actually honest with their customers. Any new scandal will cause a sharp drop in bitcoin quotes, which means that investors' assets are at risk.

- The first nuclear-powered bitcoin mining center will open in Pennsylvania (USA). Cumulus Data has completed construction of the country's first zero-carbon data center. The new data center will have a capacity of more than 40 MW, achieved through a direct connection to the Susquehanna nuclear power plant in northeast Pennsylvania. In addition to server equipment for cloud computing, the data center will house equipment for mining the main cryptocurrency.
Cumulus Susquehanna is the first in Cumulus Data's future network of 18 combined data centers with a combined capacity of more than 470 MW. They will be used to deploy the first Nautilus Cryptomine mining complex in the United States, which operates exclusively on nuclear energy and produces “carbon-free crypto assets”.

- “Buying bitcoin at the end of the first day of the Chinese New Year and selling it ten trading days later guarantees an average profit of more than 9%,” Markus Thielen, director of research and strategy at Matrixport, found out. The scheme has been profitable in 100% of cases for the last eight years, from 2015 to 2022. Such an operation would bring the greatest profit in 2017: 15%. Even in 2018, against the backdrop of the previous crypto winter, the investor received income, although only 1%.
To implement the scheme In 2023, it was necessary to buy digital gold on January 22, and sell the assets 10 days later, on February 1. Bitcoin was trading near the $22,900 mark on the day of the proposed purchase, January 22. Thielen believes its price should approach $25,000 by the beginning of February.
We will soon find out whether the phenomenon will be justified this time. And if anyone decides to follow Thielen's recommendations in the future, we would like to inform you that the next Chinese New Year begins on Saturday, February 10, 2024.

- Nicholas Merten, a cryptocurrency analyst and creator of the DataDash channel, noted that cryptocurrencies have a bright future, but many people underestimate the global situation. The damage done by FTX, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Terraform Labs has left an indelible mark on the industry. In addition, the macroeconomic component should also be taken into account, since many countries are struggling with rapid inflation, and supply chains have not fully recovered after the coronavirus pandemic. According to the expert, investors need to understand that the long-term bullish trend is over. Unfortunately, the digital asset industry needs to prepare for new challenges, and the current bullish trend in the market is only a local correction within the overall bearish trend.

- Thanks to the recent bullish rally, the capitalization of the flagship cryptocurrency has exceeded $443 billion, and has surpassed all key traditional financial institutions, including global world banks, in this indicator. For example, the capitalization of the American banking giant JPMorgan Chase is $406.42 billion, while Bank of America has a capitalization of $277.56 billion. In addition, BTC is ahead of companies such as Alibaba ($317.01 billion), Samsung ($335.37 billion), Mastercard ($365.09 billion) and Walmart ($385.15 billion). However, it has slightly lost to Tesla ($454.72 billion).
According to CompaniesMarketCap, bitcoin is the 16th most valuable asset in the world. The leaders of the rating are gold ($12.77 trillion), Apple ($2.25 trillion) and Saudi Aramco ($1.94 trillion).


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Texas A&M University (USA) will launch an educational program dedicated to bitcoin in spring 2023. The Bitcoin Protocol course will be included in the educational program of students at such university schools as as May Business School and College Engineering. The initiative is based on the book Programming Bitcoin by Bitcoin Core developer Jimmy Song.

- Shaktikanta Das, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said during a speech at the BT Banking & Economy summit that digital assets should be completely banned in the country. “The position of the RBI is extremely clear: all cryptocurrencies should be banned. However, blockchain technology needs to be supported as it has many other uses,” he explained.
Das emphasized the unreliability of cryptocurrency due to constant price changes and the “ambiguity” of the definition. According to him, some consider it an asset, others consider it a financial product. However, according to the manager, “disguising a cryptocurrency as a financial product or asset” is inappropriate. As for changing the price of coins, this is 100% speculation and gambling, which, by the way, are prohibited in India.

- Unlike India, the US has a more loyal attitude towards cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Thus, the country's Congress has created a new subcommittee that will deal with new rules for regulators regarding digital currencies, as well as develop policies to further promote digital financial technologies.
The new organization will be led by Republican Congressman French Hill, who previously led the Fintech and Artificial Intelligence Task Forces. Hill noted in his statement that at a time of significant technological advancement and change in the financial sector, the subcommittee's job is to promote responsible innovation by encouraging the development of FinTech in the country.

- Bank of America (BAC) researchers believe that digital currencies, CBDCs and stablecoins are a natural evolution of money and payments. Central bank digital currencies can “revolutionize global financial systems and may become the most significant technological achievement in the history of money.” 
BAC researchers believe that monetary regulators in developed and developing countries will focus on the efficiency of payments and their availability. However, some countries will not issue such means of payment even in the next ten years. But their central banks will have to “either innovate technologically or become irrelevant in the long term.”

- Kevin O'Leary, head of O'Leary Ventures and host of the TV show Shark Tank, expects even more crypto exchanges to crash in the industry. The reason for this, in his opinion, is people's ignorance. “If you ask me if there's going to be another crash to zero, 100% that's going to happen. And this is going to happen again and again... I don't think it's about regulation. It will not change the scale of fraud,” the investor said. Legislators are likely to put in place a solid regulatory framework soon, O'Leary said, but that won't do the industry any good.

- The value of bitcoin could increase to $50,000-100,000 over the next two to three years. This opinion was expressed in an interview with CNBC by the founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. The businessman called 2023 a “recovery year” for the main cryptocurrency.
Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve will influence the digital gold rate. And if the financial regulator takes measures to stimulate the economy in the middle of the year, this will be a good impetus for the rise in the bitcoin price. This is evidenced by the January price jump caused by US inflation data for December. The market decided based on this data that the Fed could significantly ease its monetary policy, as a result, BTC quotes went up sharply.

- Positive sentiment dominates the cryptocurrency market, and its total capitalization reached $1 trillion on January 16, for the first time in a long time. In turn, bitcoin is firmly held above $20,000. Analyst Craig Erlam noted that digital assets have become the main beneficiary during the current increase in risk appetite.
In his opinion, it is also possible to say that the industry has recovered from the recent FTX collapse. On the other hand, there are no specific fundamental grounds for the development of a bullish trend at the moment. In the current conditions, it is necessary to monitor the macroeconomic situation, as it will have a strong impact on the dynamics of digital assets. At the moment, the consensus forecast of market participants is based on the fact that following the results of the February meeting, the Fed will raise the refinancing rate by only 0.25%. In this case, the bullish mood in the cryptocurrency market is likely to receive serious support.

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone believes that the bottom in the cryptocurrency market has already been passed. But his opinion on the Fed's monetary policy differs from that of other analysts.
McGlone has noted that the charts are reminiscent of the 2018 dynamics, when the price of the first cryptocurrency rebounded from $5,000. However, the macroeconomic situation is now completely different, which is why the bitcoin growth may stop at current values. Thus, the NASDAQ index may continue to fall, and the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been quite significant in recent years. “We are still pulling liquidity from global markets, and there are reasons for this. And even if equities and other risky assets rise, liquidity will remain limited by central banks. The big difference from 2018 is that the Fed had already begun to ease its policy then, and we do not see any easing today,” the Bloomberg strategist explained.
“Look at the NASDAQ, the chart is breaking through the 200-week SMA. This has only happened 3 times in history, and the Fed has always eased its monetary policy. But the US Central Bank is aggressively tightening it now. The overall picture is optimistic for bitcoin, but the situation is unprecedented now, so anything can happen,” McGlone said.

- Legendary stock trader and analyst Peter Brandt, who, among other things, predicted the 2018 BTC correction accurately, gave a fresh forecast for the bitcoin movement in the short and long term.
According to the specialist, BTC will be able to realize growth to levels near $25,000 in the near future. After that, a correction is not ruled out by the end of spring, that will give the cryptocurrency strength for a new rally. As a result, the coin will reach its previous highs near $68,000 in the second half of 2023. After that, another correction and a subsequent update of the absolute high are possible.
Peter Brandt does not rule out bitcoin rising to $150,000 by early 2025. However, he warns that this is nothing more than his guess. Nobody knows how the main cryptocurrency will actually behave, according to the eminent trader.

- Peter Brandt was supported in this opinion by artificial intelligence (AI) of the ChatGPT test platform. This platform has become popular due to its ability to solve a wide range of tasks with high accuracy, including asset trading.
Experts from Finbold asked the artificial intelligence what the bitcoin price will be in 2030. Finbold suggested that ChatGPT would be able to provide a fairly accurate forecast based on historical BTC price data, market data, technical and fundamental analysis, and other indicators. But the AI didn't live up to expectations. It was never able to predict the exact rate and admitted that it is hard to name the price of the coin in the long term. The AI cited high market volatility and unclear regulatory rules as the reasons. However, the AI, like Peter Brandt, believes that the flagship cryptocurrency has potential for growth in the coming years. This will be possible due to the development of technology, the maturation of the cryptocurrency market and their massive 
distribution.

- Ben Armstrong, a popular cryptocurrency YouTuber, believes that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will jump to $30,000 by the end of February 2023. However, analyst and investor Ali Martinez disagrees. According to him, miners have recently been actively selling their assets to lock in profits. In addition, according to the expert, traders trading on the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, massively opened short positions on BTC. According to analytical resources, as of the morning of January 17, 51% of the users of the trading platform had bitcoin shorts. This number then increased to 57%.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Nine months before the collapse of the FTX bitcoin exchange, its top management spent $40 million on luxury hotels, flights and food. Business Insider writes about this with reference to court documents. Thus, the founder of the stock exchange, Sam Bankman-Fried, lived in a $30 million penthouse in the prestigious resort of Albany (New Providence, Bahamas) before his arrest. In addition, Bankman-Fried's parents, himself, and FTX executives have owned at least 19 luxury properties worth $121 million.

- The Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced that the jurisdiction is ready to accept cryptocurrency companies from around the world. The official noted that the authorities of this administrative region of China have recently completed work on a licensing regime for the industry. In accordance with the adopted rules, crypto companies are subject to the requirements that apply to the traditional financial sector. Earlier, the Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury Bureau announced the introduction of regulatory mechanisms to protect investors.
Analysts expect that regulatory pressure on the crypto industry will increase in many countries in the coming year. The long-awaited law MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation) will come into force. Most likely, the SEC will also do something important in terms of regulating cryptocurrencies. And it is possible that such steps will help restore investors' interest and confidence in the industry, lost after the turmoil of 2022.

- Despite the recovery of cryptocurrency markets after the collapse of the FTX exchange, the situation with Binance has not yet returned to normal. According to a recent Forbes report, the exchange lost $12 billion in assets due to users continuing to withdraw money from the exchange. Despite statements from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao that the situation has calmed down, the outflow of funds is now only increasing.
According to a Forbes study, Binance lost about 15% of its assets. According to analytical company Defillama, customers of this largest crypto exchange withdrew approximately $360 million last Friday alone.
The performance of Binance Coin (BNB) and Binance USD (BUSD), the exchange's own tokens, is the best indicator of investor mistrust. According to Forbes, BNB has lost 29% of its value in the last two months and more than 37% compared to last year. In addition, the exchange was losing about $3 billion a year as a result of the cessation of bitcoin spot trading fees.

- Bill Miller, an American investor and fund manager, has confirmed his belief in bitcoin and called it a completely different asset. According to him, the Fed intervened actively in the situation in order to save the markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the BTC network, without any support, worked continuously and without interruptions. Miller also noted that the global market has risen by only 70% since the crash in March 2020, while the price of bitcoin has risen by 190% over the same period. Thus, BTC is a more efficient asset.
The expert also believes that it is wrong to link BTC to the bankruptcy of crypto companies such as FTX and Celsius. He emphasized that these are all centralized organizations, which should not be confused with the decentralized bitcoin network. In addition, Miller advised the public not to confuse volatility with value, stating that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise by the end of the year.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave, known for predicting the collapse of bitcoin in 2021, believes that the coin is now on track to break its “long-term resistance diagonal”. In his opinion, "a technical movement within the next month or two" may be enough to break this resistance. Dave the Wave has previously said that its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model indicates that bitcoin could rise to $160,000 by January 2025.

- Ukrainian startup Global Ledger has become a partner of the United Nations Department on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in launching a new educational course on cryptocurrencies. This will be the third such virtual resource program for UNODC. 
Participants will be able to conduct real cybercrime investigations during the course, gain experience both on the basis of historical data and on "live" cases. In the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the program is designed to train representatives of the Ukrainian Cyber Police and other services to identify and prevent the use of cryptocurrencies in criminal and terrorist activities and circumvent international sanctions.

- The German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has issued an official warning about the new Godfather malware that collects user data in banking and cryptocurrency apps. Experts discovered the Trojan back in 2021, but the program was underdeveloped then. The improved and finished build of The Godfather was discovered on Android devices in December 2022 for the first time. 
BaFin said that the program targets more than 400 apps operating not only in Germany but throughout the world. The principle of operation of The Godfather is simple: the program simulates banking and cryptocurrency application websites, stealing user data at the time of entry. Moreover, the software can send push notifications to receive two-factor authentication codes. BaFin experts are trying to figure out how the malware gets on users' devices.

- Blockchain security company CertiK reported earlier that the level of fraud and hacking in the cryptocurrency industry will increase significantly this year as the industry becomes more popular. Another computer security company, Kaspersky Lab, believes that “a major cyber epidemic of unprecedented proportions may occur in 2023”, as the BlueNoroff cybergroup has again intensified its attacks on organizations working with cryptocurrencies, such as venture funds, banks and startups. 
Kaspersky Lab experts discovered new BlueNoroff traps for startup employees in autumn 2022: 70 fake domains masquerading as well-known venture funds and banks from Japan, the USA, Vietnam, and the UAE. In addition, hackers are now experimenting with new file types to inject malware. For example, it can be an email with an allegedly important document in the “doc” format attached. If you open this file, the device will be immediately infected with malware, and attackers can monitor all daily operations and plan to steal funds.

– Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview with CNBC that the prospects for cryptocurrencies are not so good, but everything is not so bad either. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have remained stable lately despite the bad news. Leveraged traders closed out their positions in December 2022, creating what the entrepreneur called a “clean market.” In addition, market participants have significantly reduced their spending and will continue to do so in order to get through the transition period.
 Novogratz also stressed that 2023 will be a defining year for the future development of the industry. At the same time, he pointed to the problems that exist between Gemini and Genesis, which could create an unpleasant situation for the entire digital asset market.

- The founder and CEO of BTC.TOP & B.TOP crypto projects, Jiang Zhuoer, studied the historical charts of the bitcoin and ethereum rates. All three previous bear markets took the same amount of time to go from the previous high to the bottom. Thus, the expert concludes that the four-year cycle is still working.
Based on this, Zhiang Zhuoer believes that we are now in the last sideways period of the bear market bottom. Events such as bankruptcies of crypto companies will no longer have a significant impact on prices. The optimistic estimate suggests that if the 2018 scenario repeats, BTC price could stay flat for another two months before the next bullish rally begins.
The analyst emphasized that Ethereum now looks much stronger than bitcoin. Currency freedom and increased opportunities for smart contracts have attracted new users and encouraged the creation of innovative apps. Zhiang Zhuoer noted that the decline in ETH was no more than that of BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio was kept at a high level. Bitcoin's inflation rate was 1.72%, while after switching to the PoS algorithm, the same rate for ETH was only 0.01%. According to the expert, ETH deflation will have a very positive effect on its future price, and Ethereum will begin to grow in value earlier than bitcoin and will become the leader of the next bullish market. This should happen between March and May 2023.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- It was on January 3, 2009, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Shortly before the network was launched, on October 31, 2008, the white paper of the first cryptocurrency was published. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. A version of Bitcoin_0.1 software was published three days earlier.
Nakamoto's identity and motives for creating bitcoin are still a mystery that the crypto community and beyond are trying to unravel. One of the probable reasons for the creation of bitcoin was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008, accompanied by the collapse of the largest investment banks, a widespread decline in production, falling demand and prices for raw materials, rising unemployment and active state intervention in the economy.

- The Italian Parliament approved amendments to the 2023 budget, which involve the introduction of a 26% tax on capital gains received from the trading of digital assets. The tax will be levied if there is a profit of more than €2,000 ($2,145), and citizens will be obliged to inform tax authorities about such investments.
The UK, by contrast, has offered tax breaks for non-residents and foreign investors when buying digital assets through local investment managers or brokers. The new rule came into effect on January 1, 2023 and is part of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's plans to make the UK the world's crypto powerhouse.

- Sam Bankman-Fried, 30, founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which collapsed in November, causing billions of dollars in losses to investors, pleads not guilty. He faces eight criminal charges, including electronic fraud, conspiracy to launder money, and campaign finance violations, for which he could spend decades in prison.
According to Reuters, the court has set the first date for the Bankman-Fried trial on October 2, 2023. In the meantime, the defendant has been released to his parents' home in California on $250 million bail. Parents are two of the four people who have paid bail. Lawyers said they were threatened with harm, so two more names have not yet been disclosed.

- The past 12 months have been particularly difficult for the cryptocurrency market, which has lost more than 70% of its total capitalization. However, many analysts seem to be quite optimistic about the short-term outlook for BTC.
Tim Draper, third-generation venture capitalist and co-founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, believes bitcoin will be worth $250,000.
It will take a rally of about 1,400% upside to reach this cosmic mark. Draper is also positive about the halving, which should take place in 2024, believing that this event will have a big impact on the price of the main cryptocurrency.
Another expert with a positive outlook is Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex. She had been prone to BTC falling to $10,000 in 2022 in her previous forecast. This did not happen, although the forecast almost came true.
However, the financier predicts now that the first cryptocurrency can reach $50,000 in 2023. The professor believes that the catalyst will be the influx of more “dominoes” that fell apart after the collapse of the FTX exchange. “2023 will be a managed bull market, not a bubble,” she writes. - We will not see a jump in the rate, as before. But we will see a month or two of stable trending prices interspersed with periods of limited range, and perhaps a couple of short-term crashes.”
Alistair Milne, IT Director of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, is also among those who gave several high-profile forecasts about the bitcoin rate. In his opinion, “We should see bitcoin at least $45,000 by the end of 2023.” That being said, Milne warns that “if central banks decide to allow a higher inflation target […] to avoid a recession, hard assets could become fashionable again.” He also tweeted that BTC should reach $150,000-300,000 by the end of 2024, “and this is probably the peak of opportunity for the bulls.”
Another expert joining the bull train is Eric Wall, Chief Investment Officer at cryptocurrency hedge fund Arcane Assets. It is also called the "altcoin killer". However, his forecast for 2023 looks much more modest: the expert believes that the bitcoin rate may exceed $30,000. Eric Wall often bases his comments on the BTC Rainbow Price Chart, an analytical tool created by BlockchainCenter. And this time he said that the $15,400 exchange rate was the bottom for bitcoin.
Unlike previous forecasts, strategists at the British international financial conglomerate Standard Chartered believe that the BTC rate may, on the contrary, fall to $5,000. In their opinion, “more and more crypto companies and exchanges are facing insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and the collapse of investor confidence in digital assets.”

- Luke Dashjr (alias Luke-Jr), one of the main developers of the first cryptocurrency core, who has made more than 200 proposals to the bitcoin code since 2011, is now the victim of hackers. Luke-Jr claims to have lost "virtually" all of his BTC in a brazen hack that took place on New Year's Eve. The programmer said in a January 1 message that hackers gained access to his Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) key, a common security method. As a result, more than 215 BTC ($3.6 million) were stolen.
Dashjr said he had "no idea" how the attackers got access to his key. He only noticed the recent hack after receiving emails from Coinbase and Kraken about login attempts, he said. 

- Dante Disparte, Head of Strategic Development at Circle, shared his opinion on the developments in the cryptocurrency sector over the past year and the prospects for the industry in 2023. According to the specialist, digital assets and blockchain will still remain indispensable tools of the economy, despite the terrible events in 2022, which indicate not a crypto winter, but a whole “ice age” for the industry. However, despite these setbacks, many major banks and financial institutions will continue to introduce cryptocurrencies into their product lines. As for the bankruptcy of several crypto-lenders and the collapse of the FTX exchange, these events, according to Dispart, can be a boon for the industry, as they lay the foundation for more responsible and affordable investments.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki revealed that he is buying more bitcoin (BTC) at current prices. Kiyosaki explained that, unlike altcoins, bitcoin is likely to be able to dodge the hammer of regulators: “Why? Because bitcoin is classified as a commodity much like gold, silver and oil. Most crypto tokens are classified as securities, and the US SEC will crush most of them.”

- As it turns out, Darren Nguyen, a 25-year-old crypto trader who traded nearly $2 billion worth of crypto in 2021, was running his crypto empire from the comfort of his parents' home in Sydney. This is evidenced by an article published on January 2 in The Australian. Until now, the family has kept quiet about the crypto business Nguyen runs, and his mother refused to answer the question of whether she knew about what the child was doing under her roof.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Billionaire Mark Cuban had an argument with Club Random podcast host Bill Maher regarding investments in bitcoin and gold. Maher noted that he is an opponent of the first cryptocurrency and believes in the value of the precious metal. In response, Cuban called those who invest in gold dumb. “I want bitcoin to drop lower so I can buy some more,” the billionaire said.
Cuban also criticized Maher's claim that gold is a hedge against inflation and other risks. According to him, buying the precious metal does not mean owning a physical ingot. “This is a digital transaction that proves ownership […]. Do you know what would happen if you had a gold bar in your hands? Someone would beat you to a pulp or kill you to take it,” Cuban added.

- The mining company BIT Mining Limited reported a hacker attack on the BTC.com pool under its control. “As a result of the cyber attack, certain cryptocurrencies were stolen, including assets of BTC.com customers worth about $700,000 and approximately $2.3 million owned by the company,” BIT Mining Limited said. According to Immunefi, the crypto industry's total losses from hacks and scams in Q3 22 amounted to $428.7 million. 

- According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency, North Korean hackers have stolen $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets over the past five years. More than half of this amount ($626 million) was stolen over the past year. 
North Korea's hackers are considered among the best, as Kim Jong-un's regime is investing heavily in cybercrime. CNN has published a major investigation into how the North Korean regime is financing its nuclear program by creating a network of agents and hackers embedded in various crypto exchanges and crypto companies, mainly from the United States.

- Large institutional investors are still “staying away” from digital assets due to high volatility. This was stated by Jared Gross, Managing Director of JPMorgan Asset Management. In his opinion, bitcoin has not become an alternative to gold and a hedge against inflation, as many hoped, and for most large institutions, cryptocurrencies “actually do not exist” as an asset class. “[A lot of big investors] breathed a sigh of relief that they haven't entered this market and probably won't do so anytime soon,” added Jared Gross.

- Bobby Lee, co-founder and former head of the BTCC exchange, allowed the cryptocurrency bull market to return by early 2025, in an interview with CNBC. “It is difficult to determine exactly when this bear market will bottom out. I expect the bull market to return in two years,” he said.
The expert also believes that it is necessary to strengthen regulation, especially for companies providing custody services, to restore confidence in the digital asset industry. “I have always been a supporter of more regulation in the cryptocurrency market. To understand, I'm talking about regulating companies, not the asset itself, because it's inert. It is a commodity like gold and silver. No regulation can change the chemical composition of gold or silver. It’s the same with bitcoin,” Lee explained.

- Bitcoin has been recognized as a means of payment in Brazil. The law that has secured this status for it has been passed by Congress and signed by the president of the country. The Bank of Brazil is expected to be in charge of using the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment, while the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to take responsibility for overseeing digital gold as an investment asset. 
At the same time, the Chairman of the Bank of Brazil has repeatedly stated that he does not consider cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat. Based on this, according to a number of experts, the Central Bank will not help create favorable conditions for the use of bitcoin in mutual settlements.

- Ethereum's fundamentals are strong, but analysts expect ETH to further depreciate. The Ethereum blockchain is at its best since its launch. 100 days have passed since the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. The chain is now protected by almost half a million validators, and energy consumption has decreased by 99%.
In addition, Ethereum remains the best ecosystem of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs. According to Nansen, almost $24 billion worth of NFTs were minted and sold in 2022. However, these positive factors have not increased ETH quotes. The price of the coin is still close to $1,200, and some analysts predict a further drop in the rate to the $1,000 zone. 

- Crypto trader Dan Gambardella, who runs a YouTube channel called Crypto Capital Venture, released a video on whether the crypto industry can reach a capitalization of $100 trillion by 2030. Gambardella quoted Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs chief executive and CEO of RealVision, who compared the cryptocurrency industry to the stocks, bonds and real estate industries, whose market capitalization ranges from $250-350 trillion. Based on this analysis, the top manager believes that a $100 trillion crypto market capitalization could become a reality.

- Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin’s current percentage drawdown from its all-time high is approaching the level that signaled the bottom of the 2018 and 2014 bear markets. According to Cowen's chart, bitcoin then fell by more than 80%, today its fall is 75.6% from the high set in November 2021. This figure indicates the approaching end of the bear market. But it is too early to say that the bottom has already been reached.
Cowen is also keeping a close eye on the percentage drawdown of total market capitalization from all-time highs. According to him, it is now down by 72%, which is also still less than the drawdowns observed during the previous two bear markets.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- The SEC and CFTC may need to consider banning cryptocurrencies. Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the US Senate Banking Committee, said this on NBC. “We [legislators] want them [regulators] to do what they need […] perhaps by banning them [cryptocurrencies]. Although this scenario is extremely difficult, since they [digital assets] will go offshore, and few people can predict what this measure will lead to,” the senator explained.
Sherrod Brown backed Jon Tester, who also sits on the banking committee. The legislator stated on December 12 that cryptocurrencies have not passed the “gut check”, and therefore there is no reason for them to exist.
Brown admitted that he has been “educating” senators and the public on the “dangers of cryptocurrencies” over the past 18 months, calling for immediate and aggressive action. “I've already reached out to the Treasury and Secretary [Janet Yellen] and asked for a nationwide assessment through all the various regulatory agencies [...] The SEC has been particularly aggressive,” he explained. Brown cited the collapse of FTX as justification for the position, adding that this is only part of a huge problem.

- According to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler, digital assets are too volatile and speculative, which puts investors at great risk. “It is important that cryptocurrency issuers, as well as other intermediaries, operate in accordance with clear rules,” he said. “Although the industry usually does not pose a threat to the traditional financial sector, we must be vigilant to prevent such a situation from developing.”
Gensler noted that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) was able to effectively identify gaps in the regulation of the crypto industry. The FSOC has recommended passing bills that would empower federal financial regulators to control the spot market for crypto assets, similar to stock markets.

- Michael Burry, the hero of The Big Short, who predicted the 2007-8 mortgage crisis, called audits of the balances of cryptocurrency exchanges FTX, Binance and others pointless. This is how the investor commented on the news about the termination of services for crypto companies by the French auditor Mazars.
Mazars's audit of Binance's bitcoin balances was actively criticized by experts who said that it was not a full audit and that its results did not convince users of the safety of users' assets. Following the criticism, Binance faced a significant outflow of funds. The exchange also had problems withdrawing the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin on some networks. Against this background, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was forced to refute rumors about a lack of liquidity on the platform.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and US CIA officer who now lives in Russia, proposed his candidacy for the post in response to Twitter owner Elon Musk's post about the search for the social network's CEO. “I accept payment in bitcoin,” Snowden wrote.
Elon Musk posted that he needed a CEO who could "keep Twitter alive." Earlier, the billionaire conducted a survey in his profile about the need for him to resign from the post of head of the social network. 17.5 million users participated in it, the majority of them (57.5%) voted for Musk's resignation, and he promised to follow the results of the poll.

- Elon Musk had admitted back in August that a recession could trigger a number of bankruptcies, and the period itself could continue until the end of 2023. Although the billionaire admitted that “making macroeconomic forecasts ¬is a lost cause,” he still assumed that the upcoming crisis will be “relatively mild”. In particular, he referred to the "relatively low debt levels for most companies." This allows us to hope that the recession will remain in the range of "mild to moderate, lasting about eighteen months," Musk said at the time.
Mike Novogratz, the head of the venture capital company Galaxy Digital, adheres to similar deadlines. In his opinion, bitcoin will continue to remain in the zone of uncertainty as long as the US Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflationary risks. He also suggested that it is high time for the crypto market to pause due to excessive activity.
Novogratz called the takeover of the American crypto exchange Coinbase “by some big traditional financier” one of the worst recession scenarios. Coinbase has long been cutting operating expenses in anticipation of worsening business in 2023.

- According to a number of analysts, there are currently no significant prerequisites for the growth of the bitcoin rate in the global cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, the anxiety of traders against the background of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange may lead to a collapse in its value. According to RBC, “investors are now actively withdrawing funds from the Binance exchange, and in record volumes. The US intends to strictly regulate the crypto market and citizens' transactions.  So we should expect that bitcoin will not grow, but will come to its lows soon. It is possible that its value will be at the level of $10,000 in the first half of 2023, or even in Q1.”
The tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy may also put pressure on the bitcoin rate. Its plans to raise the interest rate above 5.00% next year may limit the potential for BTC to rise in value. And as analysts at the British investment company AJ Bell predict, the main cryptocurrency rate will be very volatile in 2023.

- Given the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, the crypto market is likely to face another collapse in quotes in the near future. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Nansen research portal, considering the correlation between the S&P500 index and cryptocurrencies. Experts expect that the US recession will affect not only stocks, but also digital assets. At the same time, it is possible that this fall will be the last in the current cycle (until 2024). However, Nansen experts did not specify how soon it will happen and how long the market will be at the bottom.

- Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone shares the opposite point of view. According to him, despite the fact that “the global benchmark digital asset was defeated in 2022”, it is ready to once again lean towards faster growth. The expert believes that the global economy may continue to fall in 2023, but BTC is likely to grow and become more actively used as digital security. The correlation of the digital asset with the Nasdaq index can be a supporting factor in this matter.
Mike McGlone had earlier predicted that the "macroeconomic global winter" could last up to three years. At the same time, he expects that the crypto industry will become stronger than ever in the next few years, and the bitcoin exchange rate will reach $100,000, and Ethereum at $6,000 by 2025.

- To circumvent sanctions imposed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Parliament is studying the possibility of issuing a gold-backed cryptocurrency that is stored in the country's Far East. This is not the first initiative on the topic of gold backing of digital assets. Economists at Vnesheconombank of the Russian Federation proposed issuing a gold-backed stablecoin called the “golden ruble” last June. In their opinion, it will be impossible to block transactions with the crypto-gold ruble, since the exchange rate will be tied to the gold rate on the world market. 

- The research company Solidus Labs has published a report on fraudulent schemes in the crypto industry. According to the firm, scammers released over 100,000 new "cryptocurrencies" (117,629 to be exact) from January 1 to December 1, 2022. This figure is 41% higher than the figure recorded in 2021. The BNB Smart Chain blockchain, developed by the Binance exchange, took the first place in terms of the number of coins issued by fraudsters. 12% of the tokens created on this network were issued by scammers. In second place is the Ethereum cryptocurrency blockchain, in which 8% of new coins were associated with scam projects.
The most profitable scam was the so-called honeypot, which is a trap for greedy people. To pull off this scam, attackers develop a smart contract with a vulnerability that supposedly allows you to withdraw cryptocurrency after making a deposit. In practice, those who fall for the bait of the scammers cannot take the coins from the "pot" and lose their assets. The authors of one of these virtual traps, based on Squid Game (SQUID) tokens, earned $3.3 million in just a few days.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Following the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the US Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate on December 14. Although its current level is still far from the expected peak of 5-5.25%, the US Central Bank may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by 0.5% this time. Such a decision will signal the easing of monetary policy and that additional volumes of dollar liquidity may appear on the market. According to experts, this will have a positive impact on the prices of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. If bitcoin settles above the $18,000 area in the near future, some experts estimate that it is likely to reach an extreme of $20,000 by the end of December.
In such a situation, the bitcoin price will again be on a growth parabola, according to an analyst known as Plan B. According to their latest forecast, BTC could reach $100,000 in 2023. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco News, also believes BTC is close to developing a sustained bullish rally in the current environment as strong buyers have stepped in.

- Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the 30-year-old founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. prosecutors filed eight felony charges against him. According to law enforcement officers, SBF colluded with partners to deceive, misappropriate funds from clients of the trading platform and use them to pay the expenses and debts of their companies. As a result of the leak of deposits, an $8 billion hole was created on the exchange's accounts. The charges also include money laundering and violations of US political campaign finance laws. Earlier, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also accused SBF in defrauding FTX investors.  According to the representative of the prosecutor's office, Bankman-Fried faces up to 115 years in prison in the aggregate of all criminal cases.

- ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood said that Sam Bankman-Fried has always disliked bitcoin because it is transparent and decentralized, and he could not control it, including during the crisis caused by opaque centralized players.
Despite the difficult situation caused by the bankruptcy of FTX, the head of ARK Invest remains optimistic. In her opinion, DeFi will be further developed, as investors have learned how important fully transparent decentralized networks are thanks to the crisis. “When centralized crypto companies went bankrupt, investors who invested in transparent distributed networks saw what was happening. They were able to withdraw their assets on time. Even those who used high margin leverage were able to survive,” Catherine Wood said.
Recall that, in addition to the FTX bankruptcy in November, the crypto industry has experienced a number of major shocks this year. First of all, this is the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May. Compute North, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, and Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy. According to some estimates, approximately several million customers lost billions of dollars as a result of all these events.

- Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said that the first cryptocurrency reached the lowest level of the current cycle, as almost all “irresponsible organizations” ran out of coins to sell. Hayes explained that when facing financial difficulties, centralized credit companies often borrow first and then sell off their BTC holdings, followed by a collapse. “When you look at the balance of any of these ‘heroes’, you won’t see bitcoin there. They sold it before they went bankrupt."
This is how Hayes explains the reasons for the fall of the first cryptocurrency even before the bankruptcy of centralized credit companies. At the same time, the expert believes that the period of large-scale liquidations is over. In his opinion, the digital asset market expects a partial recovery in 2023 amid the next launch of the “printing press” by the US Federal Reserve.

- According to Bloomberg's leading strategist Mike McGlone, bitcoin is likely to outshine gold. The popular analyst added that the flagship cryptocurrency is currently only four times more volatile than the precious metal, which is negligible compared to what it was in 2018.
McGlone called next year the bitcoin market and a time of shine after a year and a half of direct downtrends. This will happen due to the fact that the Central Banks, primarily the Fed, will move from an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to its easing. If this does not happen, Bloomberg strategist says, the world could plunge even deeper into a recession with negative consequences for all risky assets.
Max Keiser, a former trader and now TV host and filmmaker, also believes that BTC will certainly catch up in 2023 and may stage an epic rally before the 2024 halving. In his opinion, the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency will continue over the next decades.

- The FTX crash gave additional arguments to those US officials who are skeptical about cryptocurrencies. For example, Senator Jon Tester, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has recently said that digital assets failed the “tightness” test. “I haven't found anyone who could explain to me what their value is,” the senator says. “The problem is that if we regulate them, people will start to think that crypto assets are really legal.”
The decision of the US authorities to regulate cryptocurrencies will determine the further behavior of institutional players and large owners of bitcoins, which are often the same persons. So far, 80% of the losses that occur in the market of the main cryptocurrency are caused by the sale of BTC by “whales”, most wallets with a balance of more than 10 thousand BTC continue to sell more than buy digital gold since mid-July. 

- The proportion of US adults who have ever invested in cryptocurrencies increased from 3% in 2020 up to 13% in June 2022. This is evidenced by a study conducted by JPMorgan analysts. The specialists of the financial conglomerate analyzed a sample of 5 million accounts and found that the majority of retail users invested in digital assets for the first time close to the price peak. The average purchase price for their first cryptocurrency is $42,400-$45,500. At the same time, most low-income investors bought at a higher price.
Retail investors' inflows of money into crypto accounts have far exceeded outflows from them over the past few years. The cash flow has become more balanced against the background of the market decline in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the researchers found that the average investment is relatively small: about $620, which is approximately equal to a weekly salary. Only 15% of investors have invested more than their monthly earnings in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts also noted that Asians with high incomes are most likely to invest in cryptocurrencies.

- Twitter's new CEO Elon Musk managed to silence cryptocurrency spam bots. The businessman had promised to solve the problem with a huge number of advertising messages before buying the social network and has already started working in this direction. The volume of mailings has decreased significantly, but Elon is not going to stop there.
“My guess is that there are a small number of people running a huge army of bots and trolls. Today [December 11] we will block IP addresses of known violators. Although this should have been done much earlier,” Musk said. Twitter will now immediately blacklist the IP addresses of spammers, so they won't be able to use the social network for a long time using the VPN service or the Tor browser. In addition, Elon Musk promised to punish all scammers, but has not yet said exactly how.
Dogecoin creator Billy Markus, known under the pseudonym Shibetoshi Nakamoto, has confirmed the effectiveness of anti-spam measures. After Musk announced the blocking of IP addresses, only one bot responded to Marcus' post instead of the usual 50. Thus, the social network has neutralized almost all spammers.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- According to a Bloomberg poll, about 94% of respondents believe that the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment.

- The FTX collapse will continue to affect cryptocurrency market sentiment, leading to a drop in bitcoin's price to $5,000 in 2023. This is the conclusion reached by Standard Chartered. Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at this multinational bank, allowed interest to shift from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart. The conclusion about the fall of bitcoin follows from his forecast for the growth of the precious metal by 30%, to $2,250 per troy ounce. Robertsen stressed that the proposed version of the development of events is not a forecast, but it only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.
The described scenario is possible due to the suspension by the world's leading central banks of raising interest rates in 2023 after they have risen in recent months. An additional factor will be the expected continuation of a series of bankruptcies among major participants in the crypto industry with a loss of confidence in digital assets. “Gold will benefit from problems in the crypto industry in the future,” Nicholas Frappell, Global General Manager at ABC Refinery, agreed with Eric Robertsen.

- Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz maintained his forecast for the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $500,000 in a comment to Bloomberg Television. However, due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation, it will now take bitcoin more than five years to achieve this goal. “The reason bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $20,000 is [Fed Chairman] Jerome Powell’s decision to start fighting inflation with a series of rate hikes from 0% to 4%,” he explained. “For this reason, all assets that are considered inflation hedges have fallen in value.”
The founder of Galaxy Digital said in early October that bitcoin would resume growth after the Fed backed away from aggressively raising rates to fight inflation.

- According to a report by CertiK, a blockchain security company, fraudulent bots are rapidly gaining popularity on YouTube: the number of dubious videos increased sixfold in 2022. CertiK describes a wave of fraud through bots that promise instant profits and up to 10 times a day in its report dated December 1. The scam itself usually involves victims being asked to download virus software that is designed to steal their assets the moment they attempt to initiate a pre-transaction.
North Korean hackers of the Lazarus group, which spread the AppleJeus virus under the guise of a bot for cryptocurrency trading BloxHolder are among the attackers, according to IT analysts from Volexity. The extent of the cryptocurrency they stole is still unclear. However, it is already known that the AppleJeus virus is actively updated and encrypted using a special algorithm, which complicates its tracking by antivirus programs.

- Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November as a result of the collapse of the second-largest crypto exchange in terms of capitalization, FTX. According to the figurative expression of analysts, this was not a “crypto winter”, but a “crypto massacre”. The FTX crisis was like a domino that led to the collapse of many other companies.
To complicate matters, between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). According to many experts, regulators will no longer be able to ignore the complaints of those who have lost their savings in such a situation and will have to move to proactive action.

- Peter Schiff, a well-known financier and investor, is widely known as a supporter of gold and an opponent of cryptocurrencies. He expressed confidence in his latest interview that the global inflation rate will rise significantly in 2023, and what is happening now is just the beginning. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency market should fall even more, unable to withstand such strong pressure.
Schiff called the rising inflation rate a certain tax on the population. He noted that every US dollar that the government spends must be paid by citizens in one way or another. The authorities are using a dishonest path. They simply print new money and then put it into circulation. When this happens, the price of everything people buy is constantly increasing. So instead of taking money through taxes, they're stealing purchasing power.

- Texas Senator Ted Cruz said that cryptocurrency mining is essential to the US energy system. First of all, miners can use energy which is excess in the extraction of oil and gas. When it comes to extreme weather conditions in the state, whether it's severe frost or drought, miners can also benefit the Texas power grid. The senator explained that the energy generated by mining can be used to heat households and businesses. 
Cruz stressed that Texas creates favorable opportunities for the development of the cryptocurrency industry thanks to an abundance of cheap electricity. In addition, the state government supports free enterprise, and this attracts companies working with blockchain and digital assets. According to the politician, he likes bitcoin, and this is the only crypto asset in which he invests and buys it on a weekly basis.

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warned that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: “Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors.”
Bloomberg analyst noted that there is good news as well. Thus, ethereum has grown 12 times compared to 2019 and is still growing. McGlone claims that ETH has strong support close to the current price level. According to his forecast, this coin will outperform all cryptocurrencies, thanks to growing demand and shrinking supply.

- According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the market situation has stabilized slightly, and BTC bulls need now to break through an important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range. In this case, the price will continue moving towards $19,000 quite quickly. He noted that one of the first goals was to reach the $18,285 horizon. As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200.

- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has once again criticized cryptocurrency and digital assets. He stressed that some people can be fooled into buying anything. The head of the bank has previously called cryptocurrencies “decentralized Ponzi schemes” and urged to stay away from bitcoin. However, he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that “decentralized finance and blockchain are real new technologies” and went on to promote the bank’s efforts to implement them. In addition, JPMorgan registered a trademark for its own crypto wallet at the end of November. the bank will provide services related to digital assets under the new brand, including the transfer and exchange of cryptocurrencies, as well as the processing of cross-border payments.

- According to PricePredictions machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), the price of bitcoin may rise in the near future. According to this forecast, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022. It should be noted that this forecast is lower than the expectations of members of the CoinMarketCap crypto community, who believe that BTC will be trading at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- A bull market will soon begin for bitcoin and other digital assets, but this will happen after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. This opinion was expressed by cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen.
The expert expects the 2018 crypto winter scenario to repeat. At that time, digital gold demonstrated several stages of gradual recovery. But growth became stable after quotes fell to the minimum of the bearish cycle. “When the market is bearish, we see the following stages constantly: a fall, a consolidation, a small increase, and a failure again. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst said. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. This is when we can expect the price to reach a real bottom and move to sustainable growth.
Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.
According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also referred to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

- Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. He added that he would not invest his own money or his clients' money in digital assets as "it's too risky." “But cryptocurrency is here to stay because there are some investors who still believe in it,” the famous investor “reassured” crypto enthusiasts.
Mark Mobius is not alone in his predictions. Deribit options data shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December. 

- Analysts at IntoTheBlock note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.
At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now. A similar trend can be seen with extremely negative funding rates.

- Unlike Mark Mobius, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, remains a bitcoin supporter and believes that this asset can still serve as an investment tool.
Lee agrees that the passing year has been a terrible year for the entire crypto industry. The macroeconomic events of early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two TOP-10 cryptocurrencies, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock came in November when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange, and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors questioning the fortunes of Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale. However, despite all the tragedy of the current situation, Tom Lee believes that the above events are a "cleansing" moment for the industry, and next year should be better than this one. 

- Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, said that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.
Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It won't be easy to restore trust. Centralized companies will have to act differently,” the businessman said.
Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

- Analysts at investment bank JPMorgan believe that the cryptocurrency industry will change significantly after the collapse of FTX. Primarily due to stricter regulations. They cite the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the European Union (MiCA) as an example.
JPMorgan expects regulators to pay close attention to the issues of storing crypto assets and protecting consumers. These areas should lead to the same level of security as in the traditional financial system. Another way to protect consumers could be the separation of roles for cryptocurrency companies. When, for example, a cryptocurrency broker cannot be a credit service or provide custodial services at the same time. It is also important to ensure the transparency of the crypto business and oblige companies to provide periodic reporting on their status.
JPMorgan researchers do not expect a significant increase in the role of decentralized exchanges due to numerous restrictions for such sites. “We believe,” they write, “that centralized exchanges will continue to play a huge role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Especially for large institutional investors, even despite the FTX crash.”

- Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun.” 
The crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

- Small retail investors (up to 10 BTC) are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis, according to a report by the Glassnode analytics platform.
It is reported that “shrimp” investors (less than 1 BTC) added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios after the FTX crash in early November, which is a “record high balance increase”. And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”
While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well. 

- Texas Governor Greg Abbott sees bitcoin's value to the world, adding that his state “wants to be at the center of it all.” Abbott urged bitcoin companies to set up operations in Texas, promising that anyone who does so will be rewarded with ease of doing business and a lack of regulatory controversy.
According to a recent SmartAsset study on cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US, Texas ranked fourth along with New Jersey, behind Nevada, followed by Florida and California.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- A deepfake of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was spread on Twitter, where he offered to take part in a cryptocurrency draw as compensation for the collapse of his exchange. The deepfake video directed people to a website hosting the “largest $100 million cryptocurrency giveaway.” To participate in the “draw”, the scammers offered users to send any number of coins to a specific address.
The fake account was quickly banned. Apparently, the scammers used an $8 Twitter Blue subscription to pass off a fake Sam Bankman-Freed profile as a real one. For reference: Deepfake is a technology for creating and replacing elements on existing videos using artificial intelligence and neural networks.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently shared a mysterious tweet that puzzled the cryptocurrency community. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Dumbfounded by the strange text, readers are now trying to figure out if Buterin is trolling or is really trying to say something to the community.
This veiled warning comes after a dark tweet by renowned venture capitalist Paul Graham. He stated there that the crypto economy was about to experience “systemic risk” and referred to information he heard from a trustworthy person. At the same time, he added that he "does not know anything specific." So, it's possible that Buterin was simply making fun of Graham's vague doom warning.

- In addition, rumors have spread that Vitalik Buterin is getting rid of his Ethereum holdings. The wallet he allegedly owns has sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million through Uniswap decentralized exchange. The question of whether this wallet really belongs to the Ethereum co-founder is debatable, but transactions were made with his other known addresses as well. These steps were taken in the middle of the night on Saturday, November 12, less than 24 hours after news of FTX's possible bankruptcy broke.

- Billionaire investor and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Bill Ackman is optimistic about the prospects for cryptocurrencies, despite recent industry events, including the FTX crash. “Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and with proper oversight, they can benefit society and develop the global economy. All bona fide ecosystem participants should be highly motivated to expose and eliminate fraudulent projects, as they increase the risk of regulatory intervention,” Ackman said.
According to him, he was initially skeptical because he saw that the phone, the Internet and cryptocurrencies have “one thing in common”: “Each of these technologies helps the other in terms of improving fraud opportunities.” The billionaire also assumed that tokens have no intrinsic value and are simply a “modern version of tulip mania” but has now changed his point of view. The billionaire admitted that he has invested in several crypto projects. However, the share of such investments does not exceed 2% of his total portfolio.

- According to Happycoin.news, Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes. Belfort called FTX's business model a "fraternity house," which is more like a hostel than an actual business. In addition, in his opinion, all Bankman-Fried decisions can be equated to madness, and regulators need to focus on clients who lost money as a result of the exchange crash.

- A number of US senators have sent a letter to the management of the holding company Fidelity Investments, calling for a reconsideration of the option to include bitcoin in retirement savings accounts. It was supposed to be available to employees of 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans.
“The recent FTX crash has made it clear that the digital asset industry is in serious trouble. It's full of charismatic geeks, opportunistic scammers and self-proclaimed investment advisors who promote products without a proper level of transparency,” the legislators explained their move.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

- Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has “shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders” and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.
At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 to $3,200 in November 2018. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.
In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players “is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,” the report notes.

- The November fall in the cryptocurrency market resulted in a sharp increase in the number of unprofitable bitcoin addresses. According to the IntoTheBlock platform, the proportion of wallets that bought BTC at prices higher than today is now just over 51%. The total number of BTC holders is now 47.85 million, of which 24.56 million addresses are suffering losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone.
The last time a similar situation was observed was after the March market crash, IntoTheBlock analysts say. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in January 2019, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

- Dave the Wave, a well-known crypto analyst with over 130,000 Twitter followers, has published an updated Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support.
BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a drop did not last long in past cycles, and the cryptocurrency regained its long-term support quickly. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.
The analyst noted in a comment to his tweet that special attention should be paid to the closing of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to stay on the lower logarithmic curve and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

- American economist Benjamin Cowen is one of the best-known proponents of bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the cycle lengthening hypothesis. He has recently published a chart comparing the current bear market with the previous three. We see here the return on investment (ROI) of BTC of those who bought it at its absolute peak. The chart shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today.
On the one hand, 376 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI is 0.247. In previous bearish markets, it always fell below 0.2. If this happens now, bitcoin will face another fall.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. The cryptocurrency has fallen below $16,000, but Hayes believes that the story will continue to develop. The market is again on alert, as reports are received about the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a branch of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. The Genesis Credit Branch stopped the withdrawal of funds by customers on November 16. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding.
Binance was expected to join the deal. But the trading platform refused to participate in financing, fearing a conflict of interest. However, Genesis is not officially preparing for bankruptcy, and the funding target has been lowered to $500 million.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

CryptoNews of the Week


- Cryptocurrency funds may lose up to $5 billion due to the bankruptcy of FTX. This is evidenced by a study by the analytical agency Crypto Fund Research. According to the experts, the crisis has affected 25-40% of industry investment structures that invested in FTX or its utility token FTT. Joshua Gnaizda, CEO of Crypto Fund Research, clarified that we are talking about 7-12% of assets under fund management.
Paradigm and Sequoia Capital reported that their potential losses due to the FTX crisis could be $278 million and $213 million, respectively. About $175 million has been blocked at the Genesis Trading brokerage company. As of November 8, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital investment firm had $76.8 million in FTX-related positions. Multicoin Capital invested $25 million in the US division of FTX, and also held $2 million in USDC on the exchange itself. Investments in FTX US through the Venture Fund II, created in July, amounted to $430 million. Crypto Fund Research experts have estimated the value of Pantera Capital's FTX-related assets at approximately $100 million.
Industry participants admitted on condition of anonymity that the losses of asset managers could be even greater. “The number of funds absolutely destroyed by this bankruptcy is just beginning to be revealed,” one of the sources said. Researchers expect a record number of investor requests for refunds from crypto funds in November, up to $2 billion. The previous high of $1.3 billion was recorded in June after the Terra crash.

- The FTX incident has shown that the cryptocurrency industry needs “very careful regulation.” This opinion was expressed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, writes Bloomberg. The The Treasury Secretary added that the consequences of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's empire could be even worse if the cryptocurrency market was more closely intertwined with the traditional financial system. “At least it's not as deeply integrated with our banking sector, and it doesn't pose more serious threats to financial stability at the moment,” Yellen said.

- While many investors around the world are panicking, experts at JPMorgan investment bank consider current events to be a positive catalyst. They said that the FTX crisis would benefit the industry and help it move several steps forward. The sudden collapse of one of the largest crypto companies will encourage regulators to speed up the process of forming regulations that allow effective control of the sector. And the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory framework will facilitate the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
JPMorgan analysts had warned earlier that the fall of major cryptocurrencies is not over, and the crisis related to the bankruptcy of FTX could lead to “cascading liquidations”. The market decline will continue for some time, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the JPMorgan team believes that the blow to total capitalization is likely to be less this time, as the TerraUSD episode has already caused a pullback in risk taking and a more wary attitude towards investing in dubious projects.

- MicroStrategy is not abandoning its strategy of buying and accumulating bitcoin, despite the continued market decline. This was stated by the executive chairman of the company Michael Saylor. He acknowledged that the situation looks like a "roller coaster" for digital gold. But at the same time, he recalled that bitcoin sank to levels that are still 33% higher than the levels when MicroStrategy first bought BTC in 2020. The company's shares have risen 38% over the period, outperforming tech giants like Apple or Amazon.
After acquiring 301 BTC worth $6 million in September 2022, MicroStrategy's reserves reached 130,000 BTC. The company has invested about $3.98 billion in cryptocurrency. The current value of the assets is approximately $2.25 billion.

- The People's Court of Shangrao (China) jailed a hacker for 10.5 years who, in the spring of 2018, used a Trojan to gain access to the imToken wallet on the victim's phone. During March-April, he made over 520 withdrawals for a total of 383.6 ETH. Subsequently, the attacker exchanged these coins for 109,458 USDT. After the hacker was arrested, the police returned all the stolen assets to the victim. In addition to imprisonment, the court fined him 200,000 yuan (about $28,000).

- A popular analyst named Dave the Wave told his 130,200 Twitter followers that cryptocurrency markets faced a huge loss of public trust after FTX filed for bankruptcy. However, Dave the Wave also reminded that bitcoin had previously remained in a long-term uptrend even when many announced its actual death. “Do not underestimate the speculative beast underlying the BTC market, as reflected in the LGC (logarithmic growth curve), which has demonstrated the ability to absorb the most terrible news and events,” the expert believes.

- Edward Snowden, a former CIA and US National Security Agency employee who once fled to Russia, shared his views on the crypto market. Snowden believes that after the collapse of FTX, the industry should switch to secure DEXs. Decentralized exchanges are an alternative to centralized exchanges and are managed solely by smart contracts without the participation of a third party. Thanks to full decentralization, DEXs in their original state should never face problems similar to FTX, as their reserves never fall below users' deposits.

- About three-quarters of bitcoin investors lost money due to the continued decline in the crypto market. This was stated in the Bank for International Settlements. BIS analysts analyzed data on cryptocurrency investors in 95 countries from 2015 to 2022. During the study period, the price of bitcoin rose from $250 in August 2015 to a peak of almost $69,000 in November 2021. The number of people using apps to buy cryptocurrency has grown from 119,000 to 32.5 million over the same period. In addition, the experts found that as the price of bitcoin rose, smaller users bought it, while the largest holders, on the contrary, sold it, receiving income from smaller users.
The study also found that the majority of new cryptocurrency investors (around 40%) are males under the age of 35, commonly referred to as the most “risk seeking” segment of the population.

- Bitcoin has stopped the fall caused by the collapse of FTX, and its supporters believe with a vengeance in its bullish future. Thus, experts from the cryptanalytical firm TradingShot conducted an “interesting fractal analysis at different time intervals”, which showed that if bitcoin stays above $16,628, its powerful rally is not ruled out in 2023. The results of the analysis suggest an increase in bullish potential, perhaps even up to $95,000 by 2024.

- Tesla CEO and new Twitter owner Elon Musk is confident that BTC will survive the bear market, although it will take a long time before its full potential is realized. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, also expressed optimism, who said that he is not concerned about the current price movement of the main cryptocurrency.
Elon GOAT Token (EGT) issuing company has created a monument to Tesla CEO Elon Musk “in honor of his many achievements and commitment to cryptocurrency.” The nine-meter aluminum monument, which depicts Elon Musk as a goat on a rocket, cost the company $600,000.  The company drew attention to the fact that the image of the goat is not accidental. The name of the animal in English is goat, and in the case of the sculpture, the authors encrypted the phrase “Greatest Of All Time” in this way. “We thought it was a fun and creative way to get the attention of Elon and the world,” the company said. We will deliver it to Elon Musk on November 26. The donation will take place at Tesla's headquarters in Austin."

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort, who served time for securities fraud and is known as the “Wolf of Wall Street,” shared tips for managing finances during times of high volatility.
Tip No.1: Invest in bitcoin for 3-4 years. “If you take a three-, four- or five-year horizon, I would be shocked if you didn’t make money,” the expert says.
Tip No.2: Don't look at anything other than bitcoin and Ethereum. Belfort believes that despite the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies, the attention of investors should be focused only on these two assets, as they have a solid foundation. In the case of bitcoin, limited supply and a rising adoption curve are key catalysts for an upward rally. As for Ethereum, it has become the first cryptocurrency to have really wide use cases in terms of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Tip No.3: Don't panic. “The whole crypto world is paralyzed by fear. [...] I'll say that if you get back into the game, this is the moment when the market is making the most money,” says The Wolf of Wall Street.
Belfort called the current market downturn a "cleansing." He also believes that the potential of bitcoin will be realized when the crypto sector becomes fully regulated.

- After cryptocurrency began to fall in price due to the bankruptcy of FTX, a video of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger smashing cryptocurrency began to circulate on social networks. In a 2018 video, this legendary investor stated that the crypto industry is attracting a large number of charlatans who use people “who are trying to get rich because their neighbor is rich.” Then he said that cryptocurrencies are “rat poison squared” and a bad outcome awaits them. Buffett's right-hand man Munger, in turn, called cryptocurrencies "disgusting" and said that their price will fall to zero eventually.
“It turns out that old people really know what they are talking about,” economist Steven Geiger commented on the words of Buffett and Munger.

- Analyst Jason Pizzino opined that bitcoin bulls would not allow BTC to fall to $10,000. “We have a figure of $14,900 in the spot market as a cycle low and around $15,500 depending on which exchange you use.” According to Pizzino, “If we get above $18,500 or $18,600, that would be a strong indication that the whole thing was just a shake-up, and perhaps the losses will be offset during November and there will be a return to $20,000.”
“However, that doesn't mean that once we close above that $18,500, we can't go back down,” the trader added. “If the decline continues throughout November, then we will get a price of about $13,500, which is relatively well in line with the previous highs of the old 2019 cycle.”

- According to Morgan Stanley analysts, another sale may take place in the coming days. Traders will turn to selling due to the fact that BTC was unable to gain a foothold above $17,000. The result, most likely, will be a fall in the BTC rate below $15,000. In the event of such a rollback, the cryptocurrency can only qualify for immediate support in the $14,000 region. Moreover, Morgan Stanley does not exclude that bitcoin will find the bottom at $13,500 or even $12,500. But it will be the worst of scenarios.
Delphi Digital also came to a similar conclusion. Its report says that market consolidation has been delayed and that technical indicators hint at a new reset by the end of November. At best, bitcoin will be able to stay in the range of $14,000 to $16,000.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]