Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD Analysis: Commodity Currencies Testing Important Marks
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The penultimate five-day trading period of the past year turned out to be quite successful for commodity currencies. Thus, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the July extremes of this year, the USD/CAD pair has broken through the support at 1.3400, and the NZD/USD pair has confidently strengthened above 62. At the same time, European currencies failed to move above strategic levels and are slightly adjusted against the dollar.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair lost more than 200 pips last week and strengthened below the alligator lines on higher time frames. The likelihood of a change in the vector of monetary policy by the American Federal Reserve is contributing to the strengthening of the downward trend in the pair. Yesterday, data on the US consumer confidence index for December was published, showing positive dynamics: 110.7 versus 103.8. This fundamental impulse allowed the pair’s buyers to find support at 1.3310 and rebound to 1.3370, but so far no upward dynamics have been observed.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of US GDP data for the third quarter. Also, at this time, the core Canadian retail sales index for October will be published. In addition to the data already mentioned, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released.

On the daily and weekly USD/CAD charts, the price is below the alligator lines, the AO and AC oscillators are red, which additionally indicates sales. The downward scenario may be cancelled if the price confidently consolidates above 1.3460-1.3500.

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S&P 500: Worst Day since September
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The S&P 500 fell 70.02 points, or 1.47%, to 4,698.35 yesterday, according to Dow Jones Newswires. This is the largest one-day point decline since Thursday, September 21, 2023.

Of the 500 stocks in the index, only 19 closed in the green. Of these, Google shares, as the company announced plans to reorganize its advertising department, which employs 30 thousand people.

From a fundamental perspective, there were no obvious triggers that carried enough weight to cause the sharp decline. Moreover, the Consumer Confidence indicator was published yesterday, which showed that consumer confidence has increased the most since the beginning of 2021.

From the point of view of behavioral psychology and technical analysis, the sharp decline has reasonable explanations:

→ from the low of late October to the beginning of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 index grew by 16%. This is an impressive rally, fueled by expectations of easing inflation and interest rate cuts in 2024. A significant correction is a logical development of events.

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EURUSD Pair May Rise Despite Bank Predictions of Bearish Trend
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During the middle of 2023, the EURUSD pair witnessed a steady decline that lasted until October, reflecting a prolonged period of challenges for the euro against the US dollar. Since then, there has been a glimmer of hope in the market. Despite the recent correction, the market has hinted at a potential continuation of the uptrend over the past five days.

Over the weekend, the EURUSD pair, which had slumbered at the high of 1.0890, experienced a notable rise to 1.10 by Tuesday midway through the London trading session. As the new week began, the euro maintained its upward trajectory, standing at 1.10 as trading commenced this morning. While some analysts cautiously labelled this movement as a 'rally,' it is evident that there has been a discernible shift in sentiment for the EURUSD pair.

HSBC's Bearish Prediction


Adding an interesting layer to the unfolding narrative, Tier 1 interbank FX dealer HSBC has released its predictions for the most traded currencies in 2024. The bank's outlook for the EURUSD pair is notably bearish, projecting a trading level of around 1.02 by the end of 2024. While such predictions are speculative and subject to change, they introduce an element of anticipation for traders and investors navigating the currency markets.

It's essential to note that HSBC's forecast raises echoes of the latter part of 2022 when the EURUSD pair experienced a significant decline, breaching parity and reaching 0.97 by the end of September, reaching 0.9535 at one point on September 29. Whether a similar scenario will unfold in 2024 remains uncertain, with the consensus around central bank monetary policy playing a pivotal role.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Eyes Breakout, Crude Oil Price Recovers
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Gold price gained traction and climbed above the $2,030 resistance level. Crude oil price is recovering, and it could climb further higher toward the $78 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $1,975 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,030 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices rallied above the $71.00 and $73.00 resistance levels.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $73.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,975 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $1,990 level.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,030 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,045, A high is formed near $2,046.99 and the price is now consolidating gains.

There was a minor move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,015 swing low to the $2,046 high. The RSI is still stable above 50 and the price could aim for more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $2,045 level.

The next major resistance is near the $2,050 level. An upside break above the $2,050 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,065. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,080 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average or $2,030. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $2,030. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,015 swing low to the $2,046 high.

If there is a downside break below the $2,030 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,008 support.

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AMZN: Stock Price Ends Year Stronger Than S&P 500
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Amazon shares are up approximately 79% year to date in 2023, outperforming the S&P 500. This reflects the company's strong fundamentals:

→ Amazon's third-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates, helped by growth in its cloud and advertising businesses. According to Barchart, analysts are forecasting AMZN's earnings growth of 35% in fiscal 2024, as well as revenue growth of 11%.

→ Positive forecasts are associated with the activation of retail trade. In the past three months alone, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF has gained 16.4%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 6.8% gain over the same period, according to FactSet data. Therefore, AMZN could benefit significantly from the holiday shopping season.

→ Analysts are praising the prospects of the Prime platform, which will soon broadcast games involving 40 major league teams in baseball, basketball and hockey.

The chart shows that the AMZN stock price is moving steadily within the ascending channel (shown in blue). Wherein:

→ the price quickly rebounded from its lower border at the end of October - a sign of strong demand;
→ the price is able to stay in the upper half of the channel, using its median line as support and forming rising lows in December;
→ at the beginning of the new week, the price exceeded the psychological level of USD 150, setting a high of the year.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bank of England Maintains Interest Rates at 5.25% Amidst Global Economic Dynamics
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In a move that marks the third consecutive instance, the Bank of England has opted to maintain its benchmark interest rates at 5.25% on the 14th of December. While this decision deviates from the recent trend of relentless interest rate increases, it falls short of a rate cut, emphasising the central bank's cautious approach to monetary policy.

The Bank of England's choice to hold interest rates steady comes as a nuanced response to the prevailing economic climate. In a departure from the trajectory of continuous rate hikes that have characterised the central bank's policy during the course of 2022 and early 2023, the decision to maintain the status quo hints at maintaining conservatism and continuing to aim for the target 2% inflation for 2024.
Echoes of the Federal Reserve's Conservative Measures

In parallel to the current stance of the United States Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is embracing highly conservative measures by keeping borrowing rates relatively high. Despite the inflation rate in the UK being significantly lower than its double-figure peak over a year and a half ago at the onset of this policy, the central bank remains steadfast in its commitment to a conservative monetary approach.

MPC's Forward Guidance

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) justifies its decision by emphasising the need for continued restrictive borrowing conditions. While the inflation rate has experienced a substantial decline from its earlier peaks, the MPC asserts that the current inflation level remains above the target of 2% set for 2024. This forward guidance underscores the Bank of England's commitment to carefully navigating the delicate balance between economic growth and inflation control.

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GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Yen and European Currencies Retreat from Recent Highs
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The sharp decline in the US currency that we observed after the Fed meeting slowed down slightly towards the end of last week. Thus, the pound/US dollar currency pair rebounded from 1.2700, the euro/US dollar pair is consolidating after testing 1.1000, and buyers of the US dollar/yen pair found support just below 141.00.

GBP/USD

The pound/dollar currency pair failed to strengthen above 1.2750 and rebounded to 1.2600. At the moment, the pair is consolidating in a narrow range, which most likely requires a good fundamental impulse to exit. Today at 14:00 GMT+3, data on the index of industrial orders in the UK for December will be published. Also, at 16:00 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England. Tomorrow, the UK's core consumer price index for November is scheduled to be published.

On the GBP/USD charts with higher time frames, the price confidently stays above the alligator lines. If the price breaks above the upper fractal at 1.2790, the price rise may happen. We may consider a breakdown of the upward scenario after the price confidently consolidates below 1.2500.

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USD/JPY and NIKKEI React to Bank of Japan Decision
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This morning, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at -0.10%. Its head, Kazuo Ueda, stated that:
→ the chances that the current ultra-loose monetary policy will change in January are very small;
→ further decisions of the Bank of Japan will be based on incoming economic information.

Thus, rumors that the Bank of Japan might raise rates from the negative zone did not come true. As a result, the NIKKEI index rose to November highs, and the yen weakened.

The 4 hour USD/JPY chart shows that:
→ The price forms a downward channel (shown in red). The strengthening of the yen against the US dollar, observed since November, was caused by both rumors related to the Bank of Japan and the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
→ The lower border of the channel pushed the price upward on December 7, indicating support at 141.65.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Recovers as Rate Cuts Are Not Expected
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The dollar rose on Friday after Fed spokesman Williams tempered expectations for a rate cut and reiterated that the central bank remains focused on bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Williams was the first Fed official to speak since a policy meeting last week in which the central bank left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.50%. With rates stable, the big shift in the Fed's outlook was due to the possibility of monetary easing next year. Economic data released Friday signalled a pick-up in US business activity but also showed the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.
EUR/USD

According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair is consolidating around the 1.0900 level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1023, and a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1065. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0896, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0855.

The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday after the euro zone's contraction in business activity unexpectedly deepened in December. The eurozone's preliminary HCOB manufacturing PMI remained stable at 44.2, missing market expectations of 44.6. Although eurozone manufacturing indicators remained stable, they fell below expected levels. Business activity in Germany, Europe's largest economy, contracted in December, raising concerns about the increased likelihood of a recession by the end of the year. In France, the decline accelerated faster than expected, driven by further deterioration in demand for goods and services in the eurozone's second-largest economy.

The previous ascending channel remains. Now, the price has moved away from the lower boundary and may continue to rise.

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Interest Rate ETF Diversifies Trading Portfolio at Poignant Time
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Electronic trading has never been so advanced. Recently, a wave of demand for diverse instruments has emerged among many traders, and in keeping with such a demand, FXOpen has added 19 new exchange traded funds (ETFs), which are tradable on the TickTrader platform as CFDs on an over-the-counter basis.

One of the 19 ETFs which have been launched by FXOpen is the Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF, under the ticker symbol RATE.

This ETF is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) via the NYSE's Arca system, which is the venue's electronic communication network (ECN) that is used for matching orders as opposed to the NYSE's physical and electronic stock exchange on which specific stocks of companies are traded.

The Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF is an actively managed exchange-traded fund crafted to hedge against rising long-term interest rates. There has been a degree of volatility in the Global X Interest Rate Hedge ETF over recent weeks; therefore, its debut onto the market on the TickTrader platform is poignant.

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USD/CAD Analysis: Rate Reaches Its Minimum in 4 Months
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On Friday, the rate dropped below 1.366 for the first time since the beginning of August. This was facilitated by fundamental drivers:

→ The US dollar weakens after the Federal Reserve meeting, which signaled the possibility of lowering interest rates next year. Powell said monetary tightening is likely complete and discussions about cuts are "on the horizon."

→ On the contrary, the Bank of Canada remains more hawkish. In a speech on Friday, its chief Tiff Macklem said it was too early to consider cutting interest rates as inflation remained stubbornly above target.

Also, the weakening of the US dollar could have been influenced by disappointing news about Flash Manufacturing PMI values in the US: actual = 48.2, expectations = 49.5, a month earlier = 49.4.

We wrote about bearish signs on the chart back on December 1st.

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EUR/USD: Price Is Again Testing Psychological Level of 1.10
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An eventful news background creates increased volatility in financial markets.

Unlike the Fed, whose rhetoric is becoming softer, Europe's central banks are sticking to plans to maintain tight policies. The ECB said yesterday that policy easing was not even discussed at its two-day meeting, the Bank of England said rates would remain high for an "extended period," and Norway's central bank even raised rates.

This caused the pound and euro to rise sharply yesterday against a weakened USD.

However, today is the day of publication of PMI indices in Europe, which show that the economy in Europe is in a difficult situation, as the values ​​are below = 50:
→ French Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 42.0, expected = 43.3, previously = 42.9;
→ German Flash Services PMI: actual = 48.4, expected = 49.1, previously = 49.6.

The publication of PMI values today led to a sharp depreciation of the euro against the dollar, thus a correction occurred after a rally of two days.

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EUR/USD Resumes Rally While USD/CHF Drops To Support
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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0890 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.8700 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro rallied after it broke the 1.0890 resistance against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0955 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.8705 and 0.8665 support levels.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8665 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0740 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.0830 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0890. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1000 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1009 and the pair is now consolidating gains. Immediate support on the downside is near the 1.0955 level.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0955. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0777 swing low to the 1.1009 high.

The next major support is the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0777 swing low to the 1.1009 high at 1.0890. A downside break below the 1.0890 support could send the pair toward the 1.0820 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone to 1.0740.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.1000 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.1020 level. An upside break above the 1.1020 level might send the pair toward the 1.1065 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1080 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1150 level.

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GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD Analysis: The Dollar Falls Sharply after the Fed Meeting
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The American currency, having strengthened after the release of inflation data in the United States, fell sharply against almost all leading currencies yesterday. The reason for the sharp weakening of the dollar was most likely the updated median forecast of FOMC members for the dynamics of interest rates over the next few years, which does not assume a further increase in the base interest rate. As expected, the American regulator left the rate at the same level; in addition, several Fed members expect at least three rate cuts in 2024. On such news, the euro/dollar pair tested 1.0900, the pound/dollar pair consolidated above 1.2600, and the dollar/Canadian pair broke through support at 1.3500.

GBP/USD

The British currency, having tested 1.2500 after the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, strengthened by more than 100 points in just a few hours. However, today, the situation may change dramatically. At 15:00 GMT+3, there will be a meeting of the Bank of England, at which, according to analysts, the rate will also remain at the same level. Moreover, if it turns out that less than three members of the Bank of England vote for a rate hike, the pair could return to recent lows at 1.2500.

On the daily GBP/USD chart, the price has consolidated above the alligator lines; the pair may rise above the upper fractal at 1.2720 and continue rising. Cancellation of the upward scenario can be considered if it consolidates below 1.2500.

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Natural Gas Prices Recover from 6-month Lows
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Since November 1, the price of natural gas has fallen by more than 30%. This was facilitated by:
→ relatively mild weather at the beginning of the winter period;
→ record volumes of liquefied gas production, as reported by Reuters. Analysts estimate there is currently about 7.8% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.

On December 13, the price of natural gas dropped below 2.20 for the first time since the beginning of June. This level may provide support given how price has interacted with it throughout 2023.

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Market Analysis: Powell's Speech Weakens USD
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Yesterday, the Federal Reserve published a unanimous decision to leave the base rate unchanged for the third time in a row, which coincided with the expectations of most market participants. At the conference that followed, Powell's rhetoric was not as harsh as before. According to him:

→ economic activity is slowing, but the labor market remains strong;

→ inflation is still high, the Fed is committed to achieving the 2% target;

→ rates may rise if the US economy grows above expectations;

→ during discussions within the Fed, the topic of lowering rates becomes more relevant.

As a result, the increasingly clear prospect of rate cuts weakened the dollar greatly:

→ increased currency price relative to USD. The pound rose in price from the important support of 1.25, which we wrote about yesterday.

→ gold rose in price, again rising above the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, as we expected in the analysis of December 5;

→ US stock indices rose in price.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dips While USD/CAD Could Extend Gains
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GBP/USD is moving lower from the 1.2650 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3620 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline below the 1.2615 support zone.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2565 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3580 support zone.
  
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3585 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
  

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2650 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2615 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2565 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2515 level. A low was formed near 1.2514 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a key bearish trend line at 1.2565 or the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2615 swing high to the 1.2514 low.

The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2615 swing high to the 1.2514 low at 1.2590.

A close above the 1.2590 resistance might spark a steady upward move. The next major resistance is near 1.2640. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2700 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2540. The next major support sits at 1.2515, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2440.

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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Analysis: European Currencies in Consolidation Phase, Yen Declining
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Better-than-expected US labour market data contributed to a sharp rise in the dollar against the yen and commodity currencies. At the same time, the euro and pound fell slightly, while managing to remain above strategic levels.
USD/JPY

The Japanese currency rose sharply last week as information emerged that the Bank of Japan may soon end its ultra-low rate policy and move on to tightening monetary policy. Investors exited long positions in the US dollar/yen pair, as a result of which the price tested the important range of 142.00-141.00. The latest US employment report for the year was published on Friday, showing an increase in average wages and an increase in new jobs. Indicators above the forecast contributed to the corrective growth of the pair to 146.00. Whether there will be a full resumption of the upward movement in the pair will most likely become clear in the coming trading sessions.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the consumer price index in the United States; a Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for tomorrow.

On the daily USD/JPY chart, the price is below the alligator lines; sales may be a priority. With the appropriate foundation, a resistance test at 146.60-148.00 is possible.

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US CPI Data: Dollar Down As Rate Uncertainty Sustains Volatility
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As the clock ticks towards 13:30 GMT, financial markets are bracing for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, a pivotal metric that provides a snapshot of the current state of the United States economy.

The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, making it a crucial indicator for gauging inflationary pressures.

Against the backdrop of the recent dichotomy in US inflation trends, where rates have reduced from alarming figures in 2021 to a current 3.2%, the forthcoming CPI figures are anticipated to shed light on the continued trajectory. This reduction in inflation, although positive for economic stability, has occurred alongside a somewhat unconventional stance by the Federal Reserve.

Traditionally, central banks opt to raise interest rates to curb spending and counteract inflation. However, the US Federal Reserve has maintained a steadfast position in increasing interest rates for over a year, even as inflation trends abate. This seemingly contradictory approach has prompted speculation within financial circles, with analysts debating the motives behind the prolonged interest rate hikes.

The anticipated November CPI data is expected to show a 3.1% year-on-year increase, a slight dip from the 3.2% recorded in October. Additionally, annual Core CPI inflation is forecasted to remain steady at 4% for November. These figures will be closely scrutinised to discern any shifts or continuations in the recent trends.

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Market Analysis: Financial Markets Waiting for Important News
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Get ready for a surge in volatility in the coming days, because:
→ today at 16:30 GMT+3: news will be published on inflation in the USA;
→ tomorrow at 22:00-22:30 GMT+3: news from the Federal Reserve on the interest rate will be published;
→ on Thursday: news from the central banks of Europe, Great Britain, Switzerland will be published.

Add in geopolitical tensions, the possibility of Biden's impeachment, news on unemployment and retail sales in the US and other factors affecting prices — this week is likely to be very turbulent before financial market participants go on holiday.

The greatest optimism reigns in the stock market. The S&P 500 index updated its maximum for the year. Because investors believe that inflation will continue to cool, and over time the Federal Reserve will cut rates, giving new impetus to corporate growth. This expectation is probably already factored into the current price, so deviations from expectations can trigger unexpected price movements.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar on the Rise amid Good US Employment Data
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The US Federal Reserve will publish its interest rate decision on Wednesday, December 13th. The American regulator is not expected to take steps towards tightening or easing monetary policy, given the strong November labour market report published last Friday. Thus, the number of new jobs created by the American economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 199.0k after an increase of 150.0k in the previous month, while analysts expected 180.0k. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 3.9 % to 3.7%, and the growth rate of average hourly wages accelerated from 0.2% to 0.4%.
The dollar was further supported by an increase in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in December from 61.3 points to 69.4 points, which turned out to be significantly higher than expected 62.0 points.
EUR/USD

According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0760. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0789, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0842. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0770, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0714.

Activity in the market remains quite low, as investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the meetings of the world's leading central banks this week. So, on Thursday, meetings of the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England will be held. Investors expect all regulators to maintain current monetary policy without changes, and special attention will be paid to the comments of their representatives, as well as the general tone of their statements.

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Crude Oil Ends Freefall, but Is It Back in the Black?
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In the early stretch of December, the WTI Crude Oil market experienced a sudden and substantial downturn, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape. From a robust $77.71 per barrel on November 29, the value plunged to just over $69.64 per barrel on December 6 at FXOpen. Analysts, in response to this decline, have employed dramatic language, with some describing the situation as a 'freefall.'

While the recent dip below the $70 mark raised concerns, a mild recovery has been observed, closing trading yesterday on the US market at $71.40 per barrel at FXOpen. Although this figure still falls short of the late November high, it highlights the current volatility in the oil market.

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Sharp Change in BTC/USD Price: Causes and Consequences
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On Monday morning, the price of bitcoin fell sharply. As the chart shows, the BTC/USD rate fell below 42,000 on Monday during the Asian session. According to Coinglass, the decline resulted in about $400 million worth of positions being liquidated by about 100,000 traders on cryptocurrency exchanges. So far, the price has found support around the 41,200 level, where the lower border of the ascending channel lies (shown in blue).

What are the reasons for such a sharp decline? From a fundamental point of view, there are no triggers with the media associated with, for example, statements by officials. What then?

First of all, the idea comes with low liquidity in the financial markets at the beginning of Monday in the Asian session. A recent example is the gold market, when the price of the metal jumped at the opening of trading to $2,130, but then quickly fell to $2,060. By the way, we wrote on Tuesday that the bears may try to push the price of gold below the psychological level of $2,000. The scenario is still coming true.

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NIKKEI Analysis: Japanese Stock Market Outlook
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In the first half of 2023, the Japanese stock market was dominated by bullish sentiment due to (still) negative interest rates — while the rest of the G7 countries raised their rates to combat inflation.

The NIKKEI-225 index grew by 30% in the first half of the year. But then the balance of supply and demand was achieved, judging by the daily chart, where a range was formed (shown in blue), framing the index’s fluctuations in the second half of the year. Judging by the change in the slope of the bullish trend lines, demand was sufficient to maintain the price at the lower limit of the range, but not enough to go beyond the upper limit.

The situation is fundamentally reversed. While interest rates in the US, Europe and elsewhere are thought to be near the top, there is growing talk in Japan that the central bank will begin raising them after years of being stuck in negative territory:
→ Bloomberg: The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held on December 19 – speculation is growing that the Bank will move away from negative interest rates as early as this month.
→ Reuters: 22 of 26 economists (85%) surveyed in November believe the Bank of Japan will abandon its negative interest rate policy by the end of next year.

The winding down of ultra-loose monetary policy could have a negative impact on the growth of Japanese companies - accordingly, the growing bearish sentiment is reflected in the index quote. Since the end of November, the NIKKEI 225 has dropped almost 5%.

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AUD/JPY Analysis: Rate Falls to Important Support
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This morning, the AUD/JPY rate dropped below 95.2 yen per Australian dollar for the first time since late October.

The weakening of the AUD was contributed by:
→ negative news regarding the Chinese economy. The Hang Seng Index set its 2023 low yesterday;
→ Australian GDP data published yesterday, which is growing at a weaker-than-expected pace.

And the strengthening of the yen occurs against the backdrop of expectations of an increase in interest rates in Japan, which intensified according to the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan. Kazuo Ueda said yesterday the central bank has several options for targeting interest rates once it gets short-term borrowing costs out of negative territory.

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S&P 500 Analysis: Why Santa May Have Problems Rallying
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It is traditionally believed that the Santa Rally occurs at the end of December and the first days of January, but according to many opinions it is acceptable to think that it begins much earlier.

At the beginning of December, the values of the S&P 500 index came close to the highs of the year in the area of 4,611, but have declined to date, forming a number of bearish signs:

→ the candle on November 29 has a long upper shadow — a sign of seller activity;
→ the same can be said about yesterday’s candle;
→ candles on December 1-4 form a bearish engulfing pattern;
→ all of the listed candles form a head-and-shoulders pattern (shown by the letters SHS).

That is, the chart indicates activation of sellers near the yearly high — and this is a problem that can affect the so-called Santa Claus rally (the active channel, shown in blue, actualizes the theme associated with the rally).

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Stable Despite Weak Employment Data
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Yesterday, statistics from the United States on the dynamics of open vacancies from JOLTS were published. In October, their number decreased by 617.0k to 8.733 million, which turned out to be the lowest result since the beginning of 2021, while analysts expected a reduction from 9.35 million to 9.30 million. Further cooling of the American labour market, along with the weakening of inflation risks, serves as a factor in favour of the expected completion of the cycle of tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Some experts suggest that interest rate reductions will begin as early as March 2024.

November data on business activity in the services sector provided support to the American currency: the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose from 51.8 points to 52.7 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts of 52.0 points. The US dollar index remains at 103.400.

On Friday, final labour market statistics for November will be published: analysts suggest that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector will increase from 150.0k to 185.0k, unemployment will remain at 3.9%, and the average hourly wages will increase from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.
EUR/USD

According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the 1.0800 mark and new local lows from November 14, updated the day before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0836, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0878. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0731.

European statistics on business activity turned out to be positive: the indicator in the non-manufacturing sector increased from 47.8 points to 48.7 points, exceeding expectations at 48.2 points, and the composite index - from 46.5 points to 47.6 points with a forecast of 47.1 points. The German services business activity index rose from 48.2 points to 49.6 points, and the composite index from 45.9 points to 47.8 points. Indicators remained stagnant, confirming that the eurozone economy is approaching recession, despite some recovery in consumption during the Christmas holidays.

The focus of investors today will be on October statistics from the eurozone on the dynamics of retail sales: in monthly terms, the indicator is expected to grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.3% a month earlier, and in annual terms - a decrease of 1.1% after -2,9%.

The downward channel is maintained. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline.

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Will rate hikes end when 2023 ends?
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Finally, after a seemingly endless period of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve over the past few years, there is some degree of inkling that the rate rises may come to an end at the end of this year.

This morning, some mainstream media speculation has surfaced, considering that Federal Reserve officials are finally looking at making no further interest rate increases in 2024.

Currently, this is pure speculation based on some recent sentiment from the central bankers, and there has been some mention of a potential cessation in increasing interest rates in the last quarter of this year, which did not come to fruition. Instead, the current monetary policy continued, despite inflation now being very much under control and nowhere near the double-digit figures of two years ago, which caused the Federal Reserve (and other central banks in Western markets) to increase interest rates.

Therefore, the currency markets have responded accordingly. Rather than a sudden rise in the value of the US dollar, the British pound has been forging ahead.

In the period between November 9 and December 1, the British pound surged against the US dollar, going from 1.2290 to 1.27. Such gains are relatively rare among major currencies, and quite often, just a 1-cent difference is considered a notable movement.

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WTI Oil Price Drops to Lowest Level Since July
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As the chart shows, the price of a barrel of US crude oil dropped below 72.10 per barrel yesterday for the first time since July 2023.

Fundamentally, this happened against the backdrop of:

→ Statistics showing that US oil exports are increasing. Volume is approaching a record 6 million barrels per day, with flows to Europe and Asia showing steady growth.
→ Previously announced measures to reduce oil production by OPEC+. However, either the price has already taken these statements into account in advance, or market participants are not confident that the reduction in OPEC+ supplies will be fully implemented — one way or another, so far the OPEC+ countries have not achieved the desired increase in oil prices. Perhaps, in order to discuss the oil market, Russian President Putin is flying to the UAE and Saudi Arabia today. And Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said OPEC+ is ready to deepen oil production cuts in the first quarter of 2024 to eliminate “speculation and volatility” if existing production reduction measures are not enough.

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Gold Price Retreats From Highs and Crude Oil Price Dives
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Gold price is correcting gains below the $2,050 support. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $75.90 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied to new highs above $2,120 before it corrected lower against the US Dollar.
  
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,025 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $75 support zone.
  
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $73.35 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,000 resistance. The price even traded to a new high at $2,135 before there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the $2,072 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,050 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $2,010 zone. A low is formed near $2,009.78 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase.

It is now facing resistance near a key bearish trend line at $2,025. The next major resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,135 swing high to the $2,009 low at $2,040.

The main resistance could be $2,050, above which the price could test the $2,072 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,135. An upside break above the $2,135 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,220. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,350 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,010 level. The first major support is near the $2,000 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,000 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,965 support.

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USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and EUR/USD Analysis: The US Dollar Corrected in Anticipation of PMI Data Release
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In the first trading hours of the current five-day period, the American currency made a number of attempts to regain the positions lost last week and begin an upward correction. Thus, the USD/JPY pair found support just above 146.00 and tested resistance at 147.50, USD/CAD buyers defended support at 1.3500, and the EUR/USD pair dropped to the important level of 1.0800 yesterday. Whether there will be a continuation of yesterday's movements can be understood after the release of the incoming fundamentals of the current five-day period.

USD/JPY
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Growing expectations among market participants regarding a reduction in the Fed's base interest rate next year is pushing the USD/JPY pair to new lows. If data on inflation and the labour market in the US disappoint officials, the timing of changes in monetary policy could change dramatically, which in turn could return the USD/JPY pair above 150.00.

Today at 17:45 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for November. A little later, at 18:00 GMT+3, indicators on the number of open vacancies on the US labour market for October and the Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector from ISM will be released. Tomorrow we are waiting for a preliminary report on employment in the US from ADR.

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S&P500: The end of a significant rally?
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Opinions vary across the financial markets this morning as the S&P 500 index, a prestigious benchmark tracking the performance of 500 major US companies, takes centre stage in recent market discussions. Just days ago, on the first trading day of December, the S&P 500 soared to its highest point in over a year, capping off at 4,594.63 points.

This upward momentum persisted until yesterday morning when the US market concluded its session, witnessing a sudden tapering of the rally. While not indicative of a crash, the decline in the S&P 500's value has piqued the interest of financial analysts. The significance lies in whether this marks a temporary blip in the midst of a more extended upward trajectory or signals the conclusion of a sustained period of growth since its all-time high in 2022.

What adds intrigue to this scenario is the S&P 500's five-week upward trend, raising questions about the potential impact on the longer-term direction of the index. A critical point of comparison emerges when assessing these traditional 'bricks and mortar' stocks against the dynamic tech stocks listed on NASDAQ. The blue-chip Dow has recorded a modest 9% gain for the year, in stark contrast to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite's impressive 35% climb in 2023.

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Market Analysis: Gold Falls from Record High by $100 in 1 Day
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The record high of about USD 2,130 an ounce was set just after the weekend in low-liquid Asian markets. By the nature of the movement, it looked more like a cascading triggering of sellers’ stop losses, rather than finding a stable balance between supply and demand, since after the candle with a long upper tail, the quote began to fall. During the European session it fell to 2,060, and during the American session it fell to 2,030. So in less than a day, the price of gold fell about USD 100, making Monday's close further from the record top than Friday's close — essentially similar to a change in market sentiment, in which a bearish engulfing pattern is formed.

From a fundamental point of view, the gold market is influenced by:
→ Jerome Powell's words that expectations of a rate cut may be “premature”;
→ positioning traders at the beginning of the working week. Important news on the US labor market is expected on Friday.

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