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Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:16 pm

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.06.2015



GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Golden Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), and the price is below Kumo. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from Senkou Span A, and growth of the price towards D Kijun-Sen.



GBP USD, Time Frame H1. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Golden Cross” (1); all lines are directed upwards. Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is heading up (2), and the price is above the lines. Short-term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen, and growth of the price.




XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAU USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected below Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is moving downwards (2), and the price is below the lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from D Senkou Span B, resistance from Tenkan-Sen – Kijun-Sen, and then the price may break D Kumo downwards.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:18 pm

Forex Technical Analysis 04.06.2015


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Eurodollar has expanded its consolidation channel upwards and today may try to reach a new high and return to level of 1.1190.  Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards level of 1.1000 and then grow again to reach level of 1.1525. After that, the pair may start another descending movement to return to level of 1.1000.



 

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound is still forming a correction with the target at level of 1.5400; the pair has already reached the minimum target of this correction. We think, today, the price may form the fifth structure of the correction and then continue falling inside the downtrend.  The target of this first wave is at level of 1.5051.



 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is still being corrected towards level of 0.9255. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow to return to level of 0.9542 and then move downwards again to reach level of 0.8933.



 

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen is being corrected towards level of 124.74. After reaching it, the pair may fall towards level of 123.54 and then return to level of 124.30, thus forming a new consolidation channel. If the pair breaks this channel downwards, it may continue falling inside the downtrend; if upwards – form another ascending structure with the target at level of 125.80.



 

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar has rebounded from level of 0.7785 and right now is moving downwards. The main target is at level of 0.7500 or even 0.7417. Later, in our opinion, the market may return to level of 0.7780.



 

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble is moving upwards. We think, today, the price may level of 55.50 as the third wave of the current correction. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards level of 52.33 and then start the fifth wave with the target at level of 58.50.



 

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues moving downwards. We think, today, the price may reach level of 1163. Later, in our opinion, the market may return to level of 1197 and then continue falling inside the downtrend to reach level of 1113.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:19 pm

Murrey Math Lines 04.06.2015



EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Eurodollar continues growing; it has already broken the 4/8 level. Yesterday Super Trends formed “bullish cross”. During the local correction, I opened a buy order with the target at the 7/8 level: if the price rebounds from it, the downtrend may resume.



At the H1 chart, the pair is moving inside “overbought zone”. Bulls are supported by the H1 Super Trend and if the market rebounds from it, the pair will continue moving upwards. After the price breaks the +2/8 level, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.




NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

In case of New Zealand Dollar, bears are still in charge. If the pair is able to stay below the H4 Super Trend, the market will continue falling towards the 1/8 level.



At the H1 chart, the price faced resistance from the 4/8 level. Probably, Super Trends may form “bearish cross” during the day. The closest target is at the -2/8 level: after reaching it, the market may start a new local correction.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:21 pm

Wave Analysis 04.06.2015


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still being corrected inside wave 2 of (C) of [Y] of ending diagonal triangle: in order to complete the pattern, the pair needs one more short ascending movement. After that, the price is expected to start a descending zigzag inside wave 3 of (C) of [Y].



The pair is about to finish wave [c] of 2 of (C) of ending diagonal triangle, which may be followed by a new descending movement.




GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Probably, Pound has finished wave [ii] of 1 of (3) and right now is expected to start a strong descending movement inside wave [iii] of 1 of (3).



Probably, the price has completed an ascending zigzag inside [ii] of 1 of (3), which may be followed by another descending movement. We can be surer about this only after the price is able to stay below the confirming level (crimson line on the chart). At the same time, an alternative scenario implies that the market may yet continue moving inside wave [ii] of 1 of (3).




USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The price is still being corrected inside wave 2 of (5) of [5]. Probably, after finishing this wave, the pair will continue moving upwards and form wave 3 of (5) of [5].



Probably, wave 2 of (5) of [5] is taking the form of double zigzag. After completing the pattern, the pair is expected to continue moving upwards.




USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

Probably, the price has finished wave (ii) of [v] of 3 and in the nearest future may resume moving upwards.



Most likely, the pair has completed wave (ii) of [v] of 3 in the form of a descending zigzag. In the nearest future, the market is expected to continue growing inside wave (iii) of [v] of 3. We can be surer about this only after the price is able to stay above the confirming level (crimson line on the chart).

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Wave Analysis 18.06.2015

on Thu Jun 18, 2015 11:05 am
Analysis for June 18th, 2015

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still forming double three inside wave (B) of [Y]. Probably, right now, the pair is forming wave Y of (B) of [y] in the form of an ascending zigzag. In the future, the market is expected to continue moving upwards.



After finishing wave of Y of (B) in the form of horizontal triangle, the pair has started forming wave [c] of Y of (B). In the future, the market is expected to reach a new local high and continue moving upwards.





GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”


Pound continues forming double three inside wave (2) of [3]. It looks like right now the pair is forming wave Y of (2) of [3]. In the future, the market is expected to continue growing.



The price is forming an extended wave (iii) of [c] of Y inside an ascending zigzag Y of (2) of [3]. In the future, the market is expected to reach a new local high and continue moving upwards.





USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”


The situation hasn’t changed much. Probably, right now Yen is forming double zigzag 2 of (5) of [5]. In the future, the market is expected to reach a new local low and continue moving downwards.



After finishing wave [x] of 2 of (5) in the form of double zigzag, the pair has started falling quite fast while forming zigzag inside wave [y] of 2 of (5). In the future, the market is expected to continue falling and reach a new local low.





USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”


It looks like Canadian Dollar is still forming wave (ii) of [v] of 3, which is taking the form of double zigzag. In the nearest future, the market is expected to continue moving downwards and reach a new local low.



Probably, after completing wave [b] of y of (ii) in the form of expanded flat, the price has started forming wave [C] of y of (ii), which may also be quite extended.


[/b]
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Murrey Math Lines

on Thu Jun 18, 2015 11:09 am
Analysis for June 18th, 2015

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After making a fast ascending movement, Eurodollar, probably, continues the correction. If the price is able to stay above the 5/8 level, the market will continue growing. In this case, the closest target will be at the 6/8 level.



As we can see at the H1 chart, Super Trends are still influenced by “bullish cross”. During the local correction, near the 6/8 level I opened a buy order with the target at the 8/8 one. If the market rebounds from the latter level, it may start another descending correction.




GBP JPY, “Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen”

The pair continues growing steadily inside “overbought zone”; bulls are supported by Super Trends. If later the pair breaks the +2/8 level, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.



At the H1 chart, the pair is moving in the middle. If later the price is able to stay above the 5/8 level, it will continue moving upwards. I’m planning to move the stop losses on my orders to the previous low as soon as the pair breaks its local high and stays above it.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:27 am

Murrey Math Lines 19.06.2015


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The price is trying to stay above the 5/8 level. If it succeeds, the market will continue growing. In this case, the closest target will be at the 7/8 level; if the market rebounds from it, the pair may start a descending correction.



As we can see at the H1 chart, the price has rebounded from the 0/8 level twice. Super Trends are still influenced by “bullish cross”. If the pair is able to stay above the 3/8 level in the nearest future, it may continue growing towards the 5/8 one.




EUR JPY, “Euro vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the pair has been able to stay above the 5/8 level and started consolidating. The target for bulls is at the 8/8 level. However, if later the price faces resistance from the 7/8 level, the market may start a new correction from this level.



At the H1 chart, the market is moving in the middle. After rebounding from the 8/8 level, the price hasn’t been able to break the 6/8 one, which means that it may resume moving upwards. Probably, in the nearest future the price may break the 8/8 level and continue growing inside “overbought zone”.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:28 am

Wave Analysis 19.06.2015


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Probably, Euro has finished double three inside wave (B) of [Y], which is taking the form of flat and zigzag. In the future, the market is expected to start moving downwards.



After finishing horizontal triangle inside wave of Y of (B), the pair has formed an ascending impulse inside [c] of Y of (B), thus completing double three pattern. In the future, the market is expected to start a new descending movement. However, if the price breaks the critical level (red line), double three inside wave (B) of [Y] may transform into double zigzag.




GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Taking into consideration the depth and dynamics of the possible ascending movement in the future, we may assume that Pound is forming wave Y of (2) of [3] inside wave (2) of [3]. In the future, the market is expected to continue growing.



The price is forming extensions inside wave Y of (2) of [3]. After a local pullback, the market is expected to start a new ascending movement inside wave (iii) of [iii] of Y.




USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen has almost finished the correction inside wave 2 of (5) of [5], which is taking the form of double zigzag. In the nearest future, the market is expected to reach a new local low and start moving upwards inside wave 3 of (5) of [5].



The pair has completed wave (a) of [y] of 2 and right now is finishing the correction inside wave (b) of [y] of 2, after which the market may form a five-wave descending structure inside wave inside wave (c) of [y] of 2 and complete this whole correctional pattern.




USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

It looks like Canadian Dollar is still forming wave (ii) of [v] of 3. In the nearest future, the market is expected to complete this double zigzag and start moving downwards inside wave (iii) of [v] of 3.



Probably, the price has finished wave [A] of y of (ii) and right now is forming wave [b] of y of (ii). After that, the market may fall to complete wave (ii) of [v] of 3 and start a new ascending movement.


[/b]
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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:38 pm

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis



Analysis for June 22,2015


GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”[/h2]
GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Golden Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2), and the price is trying to stay between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from W Senkou Span A, and decline of the price towards M Senkou Span A.



GBP USD, Time Frame H1. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected and formed “Golden Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is on the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is heading down (2), and the price is inside Kumo. Short-term forecast: we can expect support from the cloud’s lower border.




XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAU USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Golden Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is moving upwards (2), and the price rebounded from D Senkou Span A and right now is moving between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Kijun-Sen, and growth of the price.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:40 pm

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis




Analysis for June 22nd, 2015



EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still being corrected. In the nearest future, the price may reach a new local low, but later it is expected to continue growing. The closest target is the group of fibo-levels at 1.1550.



As we can see at the H1 chart, the target of the current correction is at local retracement 61.8%. If later the price tests this level and rebounds from it again, the market will start a new ascending movement. I’m planning to move the stop loss on my order to breakeven as soon as the market breaks the maximum.




EUR GBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

Europound is consolidating inside the downtrend. After the last descending movement, I’ve moved the stop loss on my current order to the local high. The target for the next several days is the group of fibo-levels at 0.7020.



At the H1 chart, the price may try to test a correctional retracement 38.2%. The lower targets are confirmed by local retracements. If later the price rebounds from this area, I’ll close my current order.

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:56 am

Wave Analysis 24.06.2015



EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro continues forming double zigzag inside wave (B) of [Y]. Right now, the pair is forming wave [c] of Y of (B) of this pattern in the form of diagonal triangle. The market is expected to continue moving upwards.



The price has completed zigzag (ii) of [c] of Y, which has almost reached retracement 78.6% of wave (i) of [c] of Y. In the future, the market is expected to start growing inside wave (iii) of [c] of Y. At the same time, we should note that if the pair forms a five-wave descending structure instead of the current zigzag a-b-c, then wave (B) of [Y] will turn out to be completed and this structure will be the first impulse inside a large descending wave (C) of [Y].




GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound continues forming wave C of (2) of [3] of a large ascending zigzag. By now, the market has already finished wave [iv] of C of (2) and nay soon reach a new local high while forming wave [v] of C of (2).



The price has broken its ascending channel, but the main scenario is still the same: after finishing the correction [iv] of C of (2) in the form of double zigzag, Pound may continue growing and forming wave [v] of C of (2).




USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

So far, there are no signs that Yen has finished the first ascending impulse. Most likely, the current ascending movement looks more like double zigzag, and that’s in compliance with the main scenario. According to this scenario, the market is still forming double zigzag inside wave 2 of (5) of [5] and in the nearest future it may reach a new local low inside wave [y] of 2 of (5).



The pair hasn’t broken the critical level yet, so the main scenario remains the same. The market is expected to move downwards and form wave [y] of 2 of (5).




USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The chart structure has been changed a little bit, but the main scenario remains the same. The current local growth looks like double zigzag, that’s why we may assume the price has just finished wave x of (ii) of [v] which may be followed by a descending wave y of (ii) of [v].



So, the pair is forming wave x of (ii) of [v] in the form of double zigzag. Later, the price is expected to start falling inside wave y of (ii) of [v].

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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:11 pm

Wave Analysis 25.06.2015


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The price doesn’t move upwards, so we may assume that it has already completed double three (B) of [Y]. Right now, the pair is forming a large descending impulse inside wave (C) of [Y] and in the future may continue falling. At the same time, we should remember about an alternative scenario (colored in gray), which implies that the market is forming horizontal triangle inside wave (B) of [Y].



Euro is about to stop moving sideways, and in the nearest future may reach a new local low while forming wave (v) of of 1.





GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”


Pound has finished (2) of [3] in the form of zigzag and right now is forming the first impulse and a correction of a large descending wave 1 of (3) of [3].



The descending movement made by the price from the critical level at 1.5928 can be divided into five waves, and we may assume that it’s a descending impulse inside wave of 1 of (3). After that, the market may form a short-term correction inside wave [ii] of 1 of (3) and then continue falling.





USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”


After completing wave 2 of (5) of [5] in the form of double three, the pair has chosen to move an alternative scenario. The market is expected to form the first five-wave ascending structure inside wave inside wave of 3 of (5)[i] and a correction inside wave [ii] of 3 of (5) which may be followed by a significant growth inside wave [iii] of 3 of (5).



Probably, the pair has finished the correction inside wave [ii] of 3 of (5), which may be followed by a new local high and growth inside wave [iii] of 3 of (5).




[/i]

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

[i]
After finishing wave (ii) of [v] of 3 in the form of [i]zigzag
, the pair has formed an ascending impulse. The price is expected to continue growing and forming wave (iii) of [v] of 3.



Most likely, after completing wave [1] of i of (iii) and the correction inside wave [2] of i of (iii), the pair has started extending wave [3] of i of (iii). Later, the price is expected to continue growing.


[/i][/i]
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The euro is under sales again

on Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:21 pm
On Friday afternoon, the EUR/USD pair is trading down after the release of macroeconomic reports on Germany.

The single European currency is weaker by the end of another November week. The current quote in the main currency pair is 1.0696. Sellers returned to the instrument after today’s publication of macro data from Germany.

The producer price index for October in Germany weakened more than expected. According to calculations by Destatis, the index dipped by 0.4% m/m (-2.3% y / y) due to another fall in energy costs. The current decline in the indicator is the most notable one in five years. Energy prices declined in October by 0.9% m/m.

Excluding energy figures, the producer price index last month would have weakened by only 0.3% m/m (-0.7% y/y). The indicator purified from volatility is needed to understand the overall global trend.

Thus, on the part of manufacturers, there is no upward effect on consumer inflation. Companies and producers do not see the point in it - as long as consumers are inactive, their demand will decline only because of the revision of the price tag on the goods.

The reactions of the euro/dollar to today’s report are not visible - there is no other news, information flow is calm, and the market is gradually preparing for the weekend.
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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:25 pm

Murrey Math Lines 15.02.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/JPY)

Analysis for February 15th, 2016

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
At the H4 chart, Eurodollar is moving between Super Trend, which means that the market may start a new correction. The closest target for bears is at the 3/8 level. If they break it, the price will continue falling much deeper.


At the H1 chart, Super Trends have formed “bearish cross”. Earlier, the price rebounded from the 6/8 level and started a new correction. The closest target for sellers is at the 2/8 level. The future scenario depends on how the market will move at this level.


GBP JPY, “Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen”
The pair hasn’t been able to stay below the 4/8 level and right now is moving above the H4 Super Trend. Consequently, the pair may start an ascending correction. The closest target for bull is at the 6/8 level and the daily Super Trend.


At the H1 chart, Super Trends have formed “bullish cross”. Earlier, the pair rebounded from the -1/8 level. On Monday, the price may continue moving upwards to reach the 4/8 level.
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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:53 pm

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 16.02.2016 (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP)



Analysis for February 16th, 2016

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Eurodollar has rebounded from the group of upper fibo-levels and started a new correction. The closest target is the group of local retracements at 1.1100. If the price breaks them, the market may continue falling.


At the H1 chart, the downside target is confirmed by the local retracements. It’s highly likely that on Tuesday, the pair may break yesterday’s low.


EUR GBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”
Europound has successfully reached its upside targets and right now is being corrected. After a short-term correction, the price may continue falling towards the group of local retracements at 0.7690.


At the H1 chart, the closest targets of the current descending movement are confirmed by local retracements. If the pair rebounds from the correctional retracement of 38.2%, Europound may start a new descending movement.
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Re: Daily forex technical analysis & forecasts

on Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:18 pm

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 19.02.2016 (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP)


EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Yesterday, Eurodollar reached its local target near the group of fibo-levels and then started a new correction. Probably, this pullback won’t take much time. Later, the market may continue falling towards the group of retracements at 1.1025.

At the H1 chart, the first target of the correction is the retracement of 23.6%. If the price rebounds from it, the pair may resume its decline and break the low reached earlier.


EUR GBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”
Europound has successfully reached its upside targets and started falling. After completing the local correction, the price may continue falling towards the group of local retracements at 0.7690.

At the H1 chart, the closest targets of the current descending movement are confirmed by local retracements. If the pair rebounds from the correctional retracement of 61.8%, it may start a new descending movement.
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