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The Federal Reserve Tapered

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1The Federal Reserve Tapered Empty Re: The Federal Reserve Tapered Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:11 pm



The European Central Bank may not have a monetary-policy meeting on the calendar but that does mean the euro will take a back seat. The FOMC rate decision alone has enough power to trigger big moves in EUR/USD but upcoming Eurozone PMIs and the German IFO report will also contribute to volatility. Although EUR/USD ended last week about where it started, it sold off 3 out of 5 trading days because everyone from ECB President Draghi to members Praet, Coeure and Villeroy made it very clear that they are in no rush to change their forward guidance. They felt that policy needs to be patient and persistent because inflation is subdued and euro strength could drive prices even lower. The uniformity of these comments are an important reason why euro has been under so much pressure. Investors will be looking to the upcoming economic reports for confirmation – if the data is weak, reinforcing the central bank’s views, EUR/USD will fall as the single currency underperforms. However if the data is good, it could help sustain the uptrend in the currency. The PMIs and IFO will be released the day after FOMC so the Fed's tone could have a larger impact on EUR/USD trade.

The cad canada was hit the hardest this past week. The loonie came under such heavy selling that USD/CAD broke through 1.30 to trade at its strongest level since July 2017. Although Canada received a “temporary exemption” from tariffs, President Trump’s tweet about Canadian trade on Thursday revived NAFTA concerns. Softer-than-expected housing data also added to the pain, reinforcing Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s dovish comments at the start of the week. While Poloz expressed confidence in the economy, saying there’s untapped potential with room to expand, the possibility of this expansion happening without driving inflation means they are in no rush to raise interest rates. 

Poloz “doesn’t know when they will be raising interest rates again,” and that line alone was enough to drive USD/CAD sharply higher. On a technical basis, if these gains are sustained, USD/CAD could climb as high as 1.32. Canadian inflation and retail sales are on the calendar but these numbers along with BoC Deputy Governor Wilkins’ speech are not due until the second half of the week. This means USD/CAD could extend its gains if investors respond positively to FOMC.

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2The Federal Reserve Tapered Empty The Federal Reserve Tapered Thu Oct 29, 2015 1:28 pm

time is money

time is money

 "If money doesn't loosen up, this sucker will go down."

-President Bush in September 2008 on US Economy

 If you're new to the Forex market, it's important to know that when you trade Forex, you're trading the effects of economic global development. As you likely know, in 2008, there were fears that global economy would come to a screeching. I worked on the sales desk of a brokerage covering the overnight shift and I remember feeling like 24-hour news wasn't enough.

Every day, it seemed like a new institution that was synonymous with Wall Street or Global Financial markets were going out of business because they had leveraged their portfolios 40x on a bunch of bad trades that when south fast.

Pushed To The Brink & Then What?

Those scary events were 5-years ago and in December of 2008, The Federal Reserve embarked on their first attempt of Quantitative Easing know known as QE1.

Quantitative Easing is an exercise by the central bank whereby they buy up debt like treasuries in order to boost the economy which loosens money up ideally allows it to flow through the economy again. Many free market lovers who think markets should work through their problems on their own call this money printing where as others who don't want another Great Depression feel the Fed should do whatever it takes. 

Where Did The Money Go?

Of course for every action, there is an opposite or equal reaction and one of the key effects in the Forex market was a quick and painful death to the Carry Trade.  The reason for this abrupt death was that many central banks like the Bank of England along with the United States and other G10 currencies, dropped their interest rates as low as possible in order to boost domestic demand but by doing this, foreign buyers would not look to these economies as attractive investing opportunities unless they were simply looking for a safe place to put their capital as the global economy got out of this depressed growth environment which were now beginning to see 5 years after the fact.

QE took off in the United States only to be followed by major economies like Japan which had institutions and money managers looking elsewhere for a return on capital. This search high and low caused many people to look at Emerging Markets like China which had a 7-8% GDP while other Developed Markets had negative GDP which quickly diminished demand for that countries debt and thereby currency.

The Fed Tapered, Now What?

On Wednesday, December 18th, Ben Bernanke hosted his last Federal Open Market Committee meeting after deciding to Taper or pull back on their latest QE efforts which immediately boosted the US DOLLAR and the DXY (US Dollar Index). The logic behind the demand for the USDOLLAR on the Taper announcement was simply that the Taper has come because the US Economy is growing (recent GDP reading was 4.1% in Q3 2013) to a point that the support that QE provided was no longer needed as the economic engine in the United States is beginning to run again as it was intended. 

As the Taper of QE gathers pace in 2014 and if economic data points like GDP and employment continue to surprise to the upside, then Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve will look like the hero's that few though they would they originally engaged in QE as the US Dollar and US equity markets remain steady and strong. 

Have a Happy Holidays & we look forward to trading with you in 2014!

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