IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENTS DURING THE WEEK (GMT)
Gap: 4 Pips (bearish)
On D1 chart we see that the price is testing SMA150 again. The previous test of SMA150 on D1 was around 80 days ago and the price was clearly supported. From that time we had many interactions with SMA150 on different time frames (M30, H1, H4), where in most of the cases SMA150 was managing to support/resist the price, which turned it into a crucial factor for the price’s movement. At the same time, the current position of SMA150 matches with a support, which indicates one of the previous bottoms of the price. On the other hand, on D1 there is something like a Head and Shoulders formation. The neck line of the formation is already interrupted which gives a bearish signal. But in order to go short, it would be better to see a bearish break through SMA150 first. Otherwise the price might start a big correction on its bearish move for the last 20 days, or even could start a whole new bullish movement.
Gap: 9 Pips (bearish)
The bearish break through the 3-months bullish trend (green) has set the beginning of a new bearish activity which we have indicated with a turquoise trend line. At the same time, the Momentum Indicator has crossed the 100-level line in bearish direction and the price did a big drop through the thick red line, which indicates the previous top of the price. Then the price rebounded and interacted again with the turquoise bearish trend line and bounced from it in bearish direction. The Momentum Indicator did not manage to break in bullish direction through the 100-level line during the rebound, which infers that the bearish activity is stronger than the bullish. Having in mind that the price broke through the thick red line, we might state that the bearish movement might be dominant during the week.
Gap: 2 Pips (bearish)
The situation by this pair is similar to the USDJPY. We have a long bullish trend line (turquoise), which got interrupted and as a result of that, a bearish trend line was formed (blue). In this case, the previous top of the price (purple thick line) was not fully broken. In a combination with the blue bearish trend line it forms something like a triangle. Now the price is in a test phase on the blue bearish trend line. At the same time, we have the Momentum Indicator testing the 100-level line. It would be better not to make any conclusions yet, before seeing if the price is going to break the blue bearish trend line, or the level will resist. If the price does even a slight break in the line, the bullish reaction would immediately appear on the Momentum Indicator.
Gap: 4 Pips (bearish)
On D1 we have a clear picture of the bullish break in the 2-months white bearish trend line. We remind that the break confirmed a Double Bottom formation which pushed the price in bullish direction. Then the bullish activity was interrupted by the 0.91290 resistance level. Now the price is on this resistance for a second time and it looks like the level stood the bullish pressure of the price. Since the level resisted, that would mean that the price would bounce in bearish direction again. Furthermore, we have the Momentum Indicator, which is close to the 100-level line. On the other hand, this could be a consolidation and we might see the price drawing a shape like a Triangle or a Double Top formation. Anyway, if the price does a clear bounce from the red resistance, we could go short with a tight stop loss – right above the red resistance. Then if the price starts moving after our plan, we could adjust our stop loss until the price hits it.
Gap: 8 Pips (bearish)
After the bullish break through the 3-months bearish corridor, it looked like the price is going to start a new bullish move when suddenly, the already formed slight bullish trend line (white) got broken and the price dropped with around 300 Pips for the past week. The Momentum Indicator crossed the 100-level line in bearish direction and closed a Double Top formation. This is the reason why we believe that the bearish activity would be dominant during the week. The price might return to test the white bullish trend line as a resistance, but in general, the overall result looks like would be bearish.