Please find the Thursday review that has been performed by Trio Markets Market analysis team.
GBP (neutral to bullish): There is a high probability Retail sales will beat expectations today as the GBP has been oversold during the last days over the fear of Brexit which effects the British economy.
Euro (neutral to bearish): The macroeconomic data in Europe has been improved moderately since the last ECB meeting. Euro is difficult to be traded as it has entered in a tight range bound movement the last 15 months. Everything depends from the dovish tone that Draghi will use today during the press conference. It is almost certain that the ECB will not adopt extra stimulus today. The key point is if Draghi cultivates hopes for some action in September than this can be a very dovish sign. Moreover, it is important the language he will use for the Brexit vote and the potential damage which can cause growth and inflation projections.
* Holding trading positions (particularly euro pairs, euro stoxx, DAX) before/ during the ECB announcements/ press conference is risky and the volatility can be excessive and damage your account. Propose to start trading at least after the first 2-3 minutes of Draghi’s speech when he will give the basic directions of his monetary policy plans while you spot market reactions carefully.
USD (bullish): The recent improvement in USA macroeconomic data has helped USD to move higher, there is an increasing number of market participants who expect a rate rise this year
Gold (neutral to bearish): It is logical to see some losses for gold. However, from a fundamental point of view, the central banks money printing and the unconventional monetary policy which follow during the last years should favour gold.
Eurostoxx/DAX (bullish): Expect the global equity market to continue moving higher. Yesterday Microsoft beat expectations. As soon as we do not have some negative ‘surprises’ from the Italian banking sector , there are strong probabilities to see European equities higher.
Retail sales m/m
Retail sales y/y
ECB deposit rate
Philly Fed Manufactory
Existing Home sales
BUY above 10063
SELL at 1.1050
BUY above 46,13