An extremely quiet day with lack of macroeconomic news. The Market keeps an eye on Italy where an earthquake caused significant damages. Despite the human tragedy behind the earthquake the market totally ignores physical disasters or terror attacks during the last couple of years.
In the currency market, the USD has some moderate gains after a strong US new home sales and after Fed officials recently suggested that a rise in official interest rates as early as September could still be on the cards, although the market is pricing in just a 26 per cent chance of that happening. We give high probabilities that the USD will continue to gain moderate value until the speech of Yellen the upcoming week.
Yesterday, Wall Street touched record highs boosted by better housing data and the energy sector received a lift from firmer oil prices. Oil prices have rallied hard since the start of August on the back of speculation that major producers might agree an output freeze to help balance the market. The latest reports suggest that Iran, which in April refused to join a production freeze plan, would attend a meeting of OPEC producers in Algeria next month. We should remain skeptical about the recent bullish territory of equity market as some profit can be taken before Friday.
• Fed's Kaplan: Rate rise warranted if jobs trend continues
• Market at shortest VIX exposure of all time related
• The past 30 days have been the least volatile of any 30-day period in more than two decades.
• For the 32nd consecutive day, the S&P 500 failed to close higher or lower by more than 1 per cent
• July EM inflows were almost the same as the EM outflows during the taper tantrum
• Oil climbs on report Iran may support coordinated action
• US new home sales unexpectedly jump to its highest since ’07
• Portuguese government bonds have continued their slide to spend their sixth consecutive day on the back foot.
TrioMarkets Analytics Team