Stock market is falling at the fastest pace since Uk Brexit Referendum some reasons behind this sharp selloff:
Fears that the Wall Street favorite candidate (Hillary Clinton) facing some serious and worrying issues with her health is something that causes uncertainty for many investors. If Clinton’s health is weak obviously this will influence her ability to continue one very competitive campaign against Donald Trump. Furthermore the popularity of Clinton recently dropped sharply at the same time the popularity of Trump skyrocketed. Polls show that Trump getting closer than many epact to become the next president of USA.. Unquestionably is too early to say that D Trump will be the next President of the USA but only the increasing possibility force some investors to get some risk off the table.
West seems indecisive and reacts slowly against North Korea where a psychopath dictator has the ability to plays with the fire and does whenever he wants nuclear tests. North Korea has made five nuclear tests since 2006, the last took place last Friday. The reality is that North Korea nuclear capability is expanding fast. The last years the huge stimulus from central banks have created irrational exuberance and the bad news becomes good news at certain times. For example if a terror attack occurs in the capital Centre of a large European country investors will rush to buy equities and other riskier assets, but what happens with North Korea is different as we do not speak for some extremist suicide bombers who kill some people but for nuclear weapons that at any time can blow up or even worst erase whole countries from the map
Despite the recent soft USA macroeconomic data and the tremendous global economic recovery Fed seems to be ready to hike once more before year end. Despite the possible hike what worries more markets are the conflict signals from different Fed members. Fed officials in nearly every speech and statement appear very confident about the status of the USa economy but a few days later the macroeconomic data (for very crucial macroeconomic numbers) reveals that the USA economy is much weaker than most Fed officials were expected. This creates frustration, nervousness uncertainty about the Fed ability to guarantee the stability and to give a tone of confidence to the markets
Mario Draghi in the last ECB meeting failed to impress market and extend QE. The fear rises among investors that central banks running out of weapons and tools that can use in order to boost inflation and growth
The recent volatility might be not positive for many investors or central banks but for traders is a unique opportunity to make money. Traders begs for volatility and uncertainty, simply because give them opportunities. The recent years the ultra-easing monetary policy which followed by central banks have keep volatility in historic low levels. However many times unexpected events (e.g. Japanese tsunami, Brexit, European crisis etc.) with huge economic and political implications and importance have given great opportunities to traders to profit from markets
Trading Oil is one of the most difficult and dangerous products that someone can trade out there. Oil market is highly manipulated and ‘’ very sensitive’’ to inside information.. Also by trading oil is very difficult to manage your risk as breaking news can create huge volatility within seconds. Our view is that Crude oil prices in the next couple of months will be in much higher levels than the current levels, there are big players/insiders that keep buying for their own reasons. Most probably somehow they know that the freezing oil agreement will be achieved.
For the coming week Wednesday and Thursday are the key days that will give us the tone as USA macroeconomic data will be released and will probably give an answer if Fed hike next week